Boxing Picks 2023- Nick Ball vs Isaac Dogboe (November 18th)

There was much excitement on Wednesday with the announcement of a deep card in Saudi Arabia to take place a couple of days before Christmas, but the reality is that it is a card filled with favourites that are expected to win and move onto bigger and better things in 2024.

On Thursday it was different.

Every single Boxing fan has been clamouring for the big boys to finally have an Undisputed Bout to determine a single Champion and on Saturday 17th February, we will have our answer.

Tyson Fury vs Oleksandr Usyk has finally been signed off in what is expected to be the first of two fights and the fans are going to be the winners.

The press conferences are likely to be one-sided with Fury dominating the exchanges, but Oleksandr Usyk is not interested in the verbals, while English not being his primary language means the Ukrainian can simply allow Tyson Fury to get on with things.

Understandably Tyson Fury is going to be the favourite, but he is a much bigger price than those taking part on the 23rd December and it is a bout that everyone should be looking forward to.

It has been a tough year for the Boxing Picks after the winning 2022 and it will be something that needs to be improved in 2024.

There are still some big weekends to get through before the end of the calendar year and some top fights to come, so any improvement needs to begin now.

This weekend three cards with some real prospects take place and there are also a number of fighters who are ready to move onto the World level. The Magnificent Seven card run by Queensberry looks a lot of fun, while Diego Pacheco is back in action and this is a serious looking fighter who will be involved in a lot of big fights over the next couple of years.

Nick Ball vs Isaac Dogboe

He has only lost three times at the very elite level and Isaac Dogboe is in a rare situation where he will be the taller fighter, but keeping Nick Ball away is not going to be easy.

Ultimately it feels like a top headliner on the Magnificent Seven card in Manchester with the expectation that Ball and Dogboe are going to be involved in a firefight.

Isaac Dogboe has shown plenty of toughness in going the distance with Emanuel Navarrete before being Stopped in the Twelfth Round in the rematch. He won four in a row, albeit never convincingly with two Majority Decisions and a Split Decision, before Dogboe was put down in the Twelfth Round and ultimately beaten widely on the cards by Robeisy Ramirez.

Those losses are against quality opponents so this is a big step up for Nick Ball, who is a super prospect as far as his promoters are concerned.

The winner is going to be in line for a World Title shot in 2024 so there is plenty on the line, while Ball will be plenty confident that he can wear down Isaac Dogboe.

Two of the last three wins have been with a Twelfth Round Stoppage that underlines the fact that Nick Ball will carry his power late on and you have to factor in the wars that Isaac Dogboe has already had in his career.

Nick Ball is likely going to have to weather some big shots, but the feeling he can land plenty of his own and stopping a former World Champion and World Title Challenger will be a huge achievement. We have seen Isaac Dogboe show plenty of resiliency in the past and against big hitters, but Nick Ball can just push forward enough to break down this opponent and secure another Knock Out, while making a statement to the rest of the Division.

Solomon Dacres should be able to find a Stoppage against unbeaten Michael Webster in an English Heavyweight Title bout, while Nathaniel Collins can secure another relatively early defence of his British Featherweight Title.

After a stunning finish of Jason Cunningham, Liam Davies faces an unbeaten Italian in defence of his EBU European Super Bantamweight Title. Vincenzo La Femina will be confident, but over the distance, you have to believe Davies can break down and secure another Stoppage as he continues to build towards a World Title.

The chief support in Manchester is a British Middleweight Title clash between Denzel Bentley and Nathan Heaney.

There is much to admire about Heaney and he is going to be supported by a huge amount of people, but this is also a considerable step up.

Denzel Bentley may have lost his World Title fight against Janibek Alimkhanuly, but it was a really close fight that went the distance against the 'bogeyman' of the Middleweight Division. The latter has gone on to Unify a couple of World Titles, but Bentley feels he deserves to belong at that level and he will come out looking to make a point.

He hits very, very hard and the feeling is that Denzel Bentley can go through the gears early and have Nathan Heaney out of there before the bell rings for the Seventh Round.

Franck Petitjean vs Adam Azim

After the big news conferences coming out this week to announce two big cards in Saudi Arabia, it was noticeable that Boxxer were not involved.

Matchroom and Queensberry have not seen eye to eye very often, but both were represented and so there will feel like a gap has developed between those promotions and Boxxer who have a card featuring on Sky Sports this weekend.

A fighter like Adam Azim can bridge that gap as he looks to continue his development as a professional. The last couple of fights have been tougher than expected, but Azim is stepping up his level of competition and will be looking to win the European Title this weekend.

Franck Petitjean is an experienced veteran, and has only ever been Stopped once, but the feeling is that he has struggled to get down to the weight this time.

It will be an opportunity for Adam Azim to make a statement by getting back to winning by Stoppage and he can do that by turning things on in the second half of this one with plenty of body work expected.

Another Boxxer fighter who might have been thinking he could be called up for the Saudi Arabian card is Richard Riakporhe who returns this weekend looking to get his career moving.

Criticism has been levelled at Riakporhe for not taking up an opportunity to face Jai Opetaia for the right to be called the top Cruiserweight in the world, while he has not built on his crushing win over Glowacki back in January.

He is expected to stop Dylan Bregeon, but Richard Riakporhe may have to wait until he gets into the second half of this contest. The opponent has been the full Twelve Rounds with Chris Billam-Smith and a full Eight Rounds against Isaac Chamberlain, so the feeling is that Richard Riakporhe may have to be patient before showing off the power to break Bregeon down.

Tyler Denny will be looking to send the home fans happy by winning the European Middleweight Title, but veteran Champion Matteo Signani could still be a threat.

Ultimately Denny should be too fresh for a 44 year old, although the prices are plenty short.

Over in the United States, Matchroom have put together a card featuring two very highly touted prospects.

Marc Castro is fighting for a second time in 2023 and he can get the better of Gonzalo Fuenzalida in the first half of a scheduled Ten Rounder.

There is so much excitement around Diego Pacheco who is a very big Super Middleweight and making rapid rises up the World Ranking. He might be the best of the young talent coming through under the Matchroom banner, but they do want to see him tested.

Veteran Marcelo Coceres has been given the call up and he has pushed some prospects even in losing efforts. He put down Edgar Berlanga in the Ninth Round and looked to have gotten the better of Billy Joe Saunders before being Stopped in the Eleventh Round, but Diego Pacheco may be better than both of those fighters.

It still may take a little longer than we have become used to seeing from Diego Pacheco, but eventually his pressure should tell.

A small interest on Diego Pacheco getting this done at around halfway looks the play against a canny veteran.

MY PICKS: Nick Ball to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 3.40 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Solomon Dacres to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Nathaniel Collins to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.50 William Hill (2 Units)

Liam Davies to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

Denzel Bentley to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.87 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Adam Azim to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Riakporhe to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marc Castro to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.75 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Diego Pacheco to Win Between 5-6 @ 6.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2023: 53-96, - 28.77 Units (275 Units Staked, - 10.46% Yield) 

College Football Week 12 Picks 2023 (November 18th)

The penultimate week of the College Football regular season does not have the same jeopardy as some may think for the top teams, but Week 13 is when rivalry games can turn the PlayOff picture upside down.

That does not mean the teams leading the way in the Rankings can overlook opponents, but there are some massive favourites in Week 12, while some of those leading teams are in non-Conference action.

Out of the leading teams, the most vulnerable looks to be the Washington Huskies who are underdogs on the road at the Oregon State Beavers in a big Pac-12 game. Having the Huskies lose may actually hurt the Conference as they will no longer have the potential for an undefeated Champion, but winning in Oregon State is going to be incredibly tough and the lean is actually with the Beavers to come through.

Michigan Wolverines @ Maryland Terrapins Pick: A court argument was expected to be made on Friday, but Jim Harbaugh and the Big Ten have made a deal which means the Michigan Wolverines (10-0) Head Coach will be suspended for the remainder of the regular season. The benefit for Harbaugh is that the 'sign stealing' allegations will not be pursued by the Big Ten, although the NCAA may still have a role to play, but the Head Coach will miss the chance to oversee Michigan's 1000th win.

He has already spent some time away from the sidelines through suspension this season, but the Michigan Wolverines players have not allowed outside noise to distract preparation for each game played. They remain unbeaten with an absolutely massive game coming up against rivals the Ohio State Buckeyes, one that could determine which of those teams is playing in the College Football PlayOff.

With that in mind, there is a slight concern that the Michigan Wolverines will 'overlook' the Maryland Terrapins (6-4) who are just 3-4 in Big Ten play this season.The victory over Nebraska in Week 11 is arguably the best one that Maryland have produced this season, but no one associated with the team will downplay the tough game in front of them as they look to play spoiler.

Being in the Big Ten East means facing three of the top 15 schools in College Football- this is the final one of those games for the Terrapins who have suffered a 20 point loss on the road against the Ohio State Buckeyes and been blown away by 36 points at home against the Penn State Nittany Lions.

Many believe the Wolverines may be the best team in the entirety of College Football and so this is a monster challenge for the Maryland Terrapins, who will not be expecting a distracted Michigan team to come to town.

In the 2023 season, Michigan have been an absolute dominant Defensive unit and it is going to be a huge test for the Terrapins to move the ball with any consistency. The Michigan Defensive Line has been clamping down on the run and forcing teams to try and pick up First Downs from third and long situations, and ultimately the Secondary are playing at a really good level even without the kind of pass rush that the Wolverines would have hoped to generate.

They will be expected to get into the backfield a little easier in this one against a struggling Maryland Offensive Line which has not opened holes for the run or offered much protection for Tua's younger brother, Taulia Tagovailoa at Quarter Back.

He has played well and has some solid numbers behind him for the season, but Tagovailoa is throwing into a Secondary giving up less than 135 passing yards per game this season. That is an incredible number when you think of the leads Michigan have built up and forced teams to throw to stay with them, and Interceptions are likely to be at play in this one.

Covering this kind of number will depend on the Wolverines Offense, although the feeling is that scoring 34 points would likely do the job considering how well they have played on the other side of the ball.

The Wolverines will have noted that their rivals, the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions, were able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air against a Terrapins Defense which is playing well.

Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards will share carries and look to pick up from where they left off against Penn State after another impressive Michigan win, while JJ McCarthy has been a solid Quarter Back. This has been a position that has perhaps held the Wolverines back in recent years, but McCarthy has well over 2000 passing yards to go along with 18 Touchdowns and 3 Interceptions and he can boost his Heisman Trophy bid.

Turnovers might be the best way for the Terrapins to make this competitive and they have a Secondary that will attack the ball, but the balance of the Michigan Offensive unit should keep this team rolling.

Style points are not going to make a real impact on Michigan- if they win out, they will be in the College Football PlayOff- but only the Nittany Lions have been able to escape a game against the Wolverines with a defeat by fewer than 24 points.

It feels like this one is more likely to end the way the Penn State Nittany Lions beat the Terrapins rather than the smaller margin Ohio State produced and the Wolverines can move into the Week 13 decider with the Buckeyes with plenty of confidence.

Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: They are no longer the Number 1 Ranked team in College Football, but the feeling is that Head Coach Ryan Day will care as little as he has over the last two weeks. Ultimately Day and the Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0) might be surprised that they have been knocked off top spot despite a crushing win over the Michigan State Spartans, but will also know the sole ambition is to finish in the top four and earn a PlayOff spot.

That is likely to be decided in Week 13 when the Buckeyes make the trip to the Michigan Wolverines with both of these teams unbeaten in the Big Ten East. The winner of that game will enter the Big Ten Championship Game as a significant favourite, while the losing team may still have some hope of earning a top four spot.

No one associated with either team is going to be considering 'what might be' if they lose and the sole focus is to come out hard in Week 13.

Overlooking this game and losing in Week 12 would be a big mistake, but the Buckeyes are expected to take care of business when they face the Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-5) who are 3-4 in Conference play.

Back to back losses to the Illinois Fighting Illini and Purdue Boilermakers have ended Minnesota's interest in reaching the Big Ten Championship Game, while they still need one more win to become eligible for Bowl Season. They were favoured to win both of those games and the Golden Gophers are likely going to need an upset in the final two weeks of the regular season if they are going to earn a sixth win.

The blowout loss to the Boilermakers will have hurt, but the Minnesota Golden Gophers have to be motivated in their role as spoiler.

PJ Fleck is a very strong Head Coach, but he has admitted it is difficult with the injuries the Golden Gophers have picked up. Each week it seemingly gets a little more difficult for the team and it looks like the Ohio State Offensive unit are going to be able to do much of what they like on this side of the ball.

Ohio State have started slowly at times, but this is a game in which they should be able to run the ball against a banged up Minnesota Defensive unit, while Marvin Harrison Jr continues to impress with his Receiving numbers. The Buckeyes will have balance Offensively, which makes it very difficult to stop them, and they will be able to pile up the numbers for as long as they want.

Of course a blowout could mean pulling key starters and getting them ready for the massive Week 13 game, but you do have to wonder how Minnesota are going to find much of their own Offensive output.

The Golden Gophers may want to shorten the game by running the ball, but they may not be able to throw effectively and especially not if they fall behind by a number of scores. Ohio State's Secondary have been operating at a high level and this is a Buckeyes team that have given up just 48 points across their last five games.

Covering this mark will depend on a strong Buckeyes Offensive day, but getting up to 35 points might be enough in this game with Minnesota struggling.

Winning with style won't matter much in the grand scheme of things, but Ohio State are rounding out their home schedule and will want to send off some important players with a strong performance. That should be motivation enough for the Buckeyes who can win big and then concentrate on the game up in Ann Arbor.

Oregon Ducks @ Arizona State Sun Devils Pick: Both the Washington Huskies and Oregon Ducks (9-1) are just outside the top four of the College Football Rankings with a couple of games left to play. There is still a real hope that the Pac-12 Champion will be able to earn a PlayOff spot, but the Ducks have less scope for error than the Huskies having already been beaten by Washington.

There is a big game coming up for Washington when they travel to the Oregon State Beavers in Week 12 and the Oregon Ducks will be playing their rivals next week at home.

However, in Week 12, the Ducks are big road favourites when travelling to the Arizona State Sun Devils (3-7) who are unlikely to become Bowl eligible even if they can somehow reach five wins. The team are 2-5 in the Pac-12 and Kenny Dillingham has had a tough first season as Head Coach, although he does have some insider information about the Oregon Ducks having previously been the Offensive Co-Ordinator.

Facing players and staff he knows well should not be an issue for Dillingham who is looking for his team to continue to grow having won two of their last three games. Sandwiched in between the wins over the Washington State Cougars and UCLA Bruins is an embarrassing blowout loss to the Utah Utes, but the Sun Devils need to be respected.

They have played the Washington Huskies very close this season and this is a big spread for any road team to cover.

Oregon should have a lot more Offensive success than Washington managed against the Sun Devils and Kenny Dillingham will know all about how good Bo Nix is at Quarter Back for the Ducks. The only reason Bo Nix is playing in Oregon is because of Dillingham who has a solid relationship with the Quarter Back, even if he will want to shut him down in Week 12.

Bo Nix has produced big numbers, but he can lean on the running game in this one considering the problems Arizona State's Defensive Line have had in stopping the run in recent games. If the Ducks are operating in third and short, or if they are exploiting play-action, this should be a game in which they find the balance Offensively and are able to put up some strong numbers against a Sun Devils team that may be looking ahead to upsetting rivals Arizona in Week 13.

A real problem for the Sun Devils is going to be scoring enough points to remain competitive in this game with injuries on this side of the ball making it difficult to believe they can keep up in a potential shoot out.

They are down potentially three Quarter Backs after Trenton Bourguet needed a walking boot last week with both Jaden Rashada and Drew Pyne also expected to miss out.

An inability to run the ball consistently could really increase the pressure on Arizona State, even with their Head Coach's knowledge of the Ducks. It is really difficult to imagine the Sun Devils having any consistent success on the Offensive side of the ball and the pressure on the Defense to contain Oregon may ultimately be too much to deal with on the day.

Covering this kind of spread is never easy, but Oregon did win by 29 points in their only road game played since losing at the Washington Huskies. The Ducks know that they need to keep impressing the PlayOff Committee having suffered one loss already this season, one they may be able to erase by winning the Pac-12 Championship, and Oregon can move clear for a wide win.

MY PICKS: Michigan Wolverines - 19.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)

Ohio State Buckeyes - 27.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Oregon Ducks - 23.5 Points @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Louisville Cardinals - 1 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Oklahoma Sooners - 24.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Penn State Nittany Lions - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

USC Trojans - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

TCU Horned Frogs - 12.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)

South Carolina Gamecocks - 1.5 Points @ 1.83 Coral (1 Unit)

Missouri Tigers - 10.5 Points @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 11: 5-6, - 1.48 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.45% Yield)

Week 10: 5-8-1, - 4.40 Units (14 Units Staked, - 31.43% Yield)

Week 9: 3-7, - 4.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 42.70% Yield)

Week 8: 3-6, - 3.44 Units (9 Units Staked, - 38.22% Yield)

Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)

Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)

Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)

Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 7 Tennis Picks 2023 (November 18th)

It was always going to be a big ask of Daniil Medvedev to want to fight back when falling behind to Carlos Alcaraz and it made little sense with the Semi Final matches scheduled for Saturday.

Add to that the fact that a straight sets defeat would mean avoiding Novak Djokovic in the Semi Final and Daniil Medvedev will likely be pleased with his Group performance.

The top four players have all made it through to the Semi Final at the World Tour Finals and you'd find long odds on someone other than one of these four winning the Australian Open, which begins in a couple of months time.

With that in mind, this feels like an important end to the World Tour Finals as all four will be looking to lay down a marker to their rivals and show that they are ready to win the next Grand Slam getting underway at Melbourne Park.

Both Semi Finals look like they could be filled with drama, as my Tennis Picks for Saturday suggest.

Jannik Sinner-Daniil Medvedev over 23.5 games: The Semi Final line up was confirmed after Carlos Alcaraz beat Daniil Medvedev in the Friday Day Session, and it might not have been the worst news for the latter.

Losing that match means finishing second and that also means Daniil Medvedev faces Jannik Sinner rather than Novak Djokovic in the Semi Final.

In saying that, this might be as tough as a match with Djokovic would have been with Daniil Medvedev facing a quality opponent as well as the Turin crowd. He has also lost the last two matches against Jannik Sinner with both of those played on the hard courts since the US Open, although both have been incredibly competitive affairs, much as what the expectation is for this Semi Final.

Those wins have ended Daniil Medvedev's run of six straight wins over Jannik Sinner, which includes two wins earlier this year. One of those was on an indoor hard court in Rotterdam, while Medvedev beat Jannik Sinner at the World Tour Finals in 2021, although again in three sets.

Both of these players have enjoyed the fast, indoor hard court conditions in Turin and Jannik Sinner has held 95% of his service games, while Daniil Medvedev has held 90% of his own. At the same time, both are breaking in 16% of return games and there is every chance that serve will dominate in this Semi Final.

Even a straight sets win for either player may see this total games line surpassed if Sinner and Medvedev continue to serve at the kind of level we have seen this week. Matches between the players have been highly competitive and the four played in 2023 have ended with a total of 30, 21, 26 and 32 games.

None of the Daniil Medvedev matches in this tournament have needed a decider, but two of the three matches won by Jannik Sinner have had a third set. The feeling is that both are playing well enough to win a set in this Semi Final and this should be the latest of an exciting, competitive match between the two players most likely to break the Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic dominance of Grand Slam titles in 2024.

Jannik Sinner may deserve the narrow edge as favourite, but Daniil Medvedev loves these kind of conditions and looking for the total to be surpassed is a better angle than trying to determine a winner.

Carlos Alcaraz-Novak Djokovic over 23.5 games: The top four ATP players in the World Rankings have made it through to the Semi Final of the World Tour Finals, although the World Number 1 and 2 will face off for a place in Sunday's Final.

Both Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz have had to overcome Group losses to make it through to the final four so may feel they are destined to win this title.

Novak Djokovic in particular has to be grateful that Jannik Sinner put in such an effort to beat Holger Rune in the final Group match. It was a match that meant little in terms of Qualification for the Italian, but a professional performance has given Djokovic life in the World Tour Finals.

The defending Champion has not had things all his own way since the US Open- he needed three sets to beat alternate Hubert Hurkacz and that means Novak Djokovic it has been the case in six of his last seven matches played. In general he has won those, although Djokovic was beaten in three sets by Jannik Sinner in the Group Stage.

The serve continues to be an underrated part of Novak Djokovic's tennis, but the conditions in Turin have really tested his return. He may be considered the best return player of all time, but Djokovic has only broken in 14% of return games played at the World Tour Finals and he is not expected to get a lot of change out of Carlos Alcaraz.

After being used to a rivalry with a player from Spain, Novak Djokovic will be looking to make a mark on Carlos Alcaraz and earn the mental edge to take into 2024. Early in the season, Alcaraz will not have any World Ranking points to defend and will want to head to Australia with a big win over his top rival on the Tour as he looks to close the gap at the top of the World Rankings.

Winning this tournament would also do that and Carlos Alcaraz has looked comfortable in the conditions after opening up the Group with a defeat.

Like Djokovic, the Spaniard is performing very well behind serve, but has 'only' broken in 16% of return games played.

And much like the other Semi Final, this looks like a match that could need a decider between two players who have been separated by very little in all of their matches played against one another this year.

Carlos Alcaraz wilted at the French Open as the stresses cramped up the body, but won in five sets in the Wimbledon Final before Novak Djokovic needed all three sets to win the Cincinnati Final. Prior to the cramps at Roland Garros, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic were involved in another tight scrap and the feeling is that this Semi Final is going to be extremely competitive too.

Their match in Cincinnati saw Carlos Alcaraz edge the returning numbers, but it was a tight, tight match and that is why so many want to see Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic competing against one another.

Both have to feel that the winner can go on and pick up the title on Sunday, which should only increase the tension in this Semi Final, and it is another match that may surpass a pretty high total games line for a best of three set match.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner-Daniil Medvedev Over 23.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz-Novak Djokovic Over 23.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 8-2, + 8.62 Units (20 Units Staked, + 43.10% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021- ATP World Tour Finals (November 18th)

The final match of the 2021 WTA season is in the books after Garbine Muguruza beat Anett Kontaveit in straight sets to take home the WTA Finals trophy. It is a big win for Muguruza, but the Women's Tour looks wide open and I think you could make a case for multiple players to win the Australian Open which is set to begin in just shy of two months from now.

Those players on the WTA Tour get to rest for a couple of weeks before rebuilding towards the 2022 season, while the majority of players on the ATP Tour are also heading for breaks at the end of a very long season. However, there are still a couple of tournaments that need to be completed and the conclusion of the ATP Finals will be played out over the coming days.

The Davis Cup is also set to go this month before big decisions will be made ahead of the Australian Open when non-vaccinated players look increasingly unlikely to compete. If rumours are correct, the defending Champion will not be playing in Melbourne in January, but that is for another time and right now the focus for Novak Djokovic and the other seven players in Turin is to finish their Singles season off on a solid note before playing team tennis and recuperating for the tough slog of 2022.

Alexander Zverev-Hubert Hurkacz over 22.5 games: A Semi Final spot is on the line for Alexander Zverev, but he has to win this final Group match after investing so much in the middle match before succumbing to a narrow loss to Daniil Medvedev. His opening match only lasted a set and a single game, but that has offered Alexander Zverev a win and he will progress as long as he can win this match.

Nothing has been lost as far as Hubert Hurkacz has been concerned, even with two losses on his sheet in his debut season at the World Tour Finals. All the Polish player has to be thinking is that a win would give him a chance of progressing as long as Daniil Medvedev can beat Jannik Sinner, but ultimately that match won't be of any concern for Hurkacz unless he can win this match.

He won the opening set at the tournament, but Hubert Hurkacz has lost the last four sets in succession and he is going to need to be a lot better than he was in his last match if he is going to beat Alexander Zverev. Hubert Hurkacz would have been expecting to play Matteo Berrettini, but the highest Ranked Italian was forced to withdraw with an injury and another Italian took his place in the Group and I am not sure Hurkacz ever really figured out his game plan to take on Jannik Sinner.

There isn't much familiarity between these players with their sole meeting coming back in March 2019, but there also shouldn't be too much that is unexpected. Both Hubert Hurkacz and Alexander Zverev are going to want to use a big first serve to try and get on top of the rallies and that is going to be very important.

However, it can be argued that it is imperative for Hurkacz to serve well as he has struggled with his return in the conditions and it is unlikely to be given a lot from Alexander Zverev who has only been broken once in the tournament. On the other hand, Hubert Hurkacz has to be encouraged by what he can do if he is serving well knowing that Zverev has yet to break serve in the conditions and barely got to grips with what Daniil Medvedev was producing on Tuesday.

The feeling is that Alexander Zverev has a little more in his return game that can make the difference for him and I do think he will win the match. At the same time, I can't expect Hubert Hurkacz to be as poor serving as he was in his heavy defeat to Jannik Sinner and he can at least push his higher Ranked opponent, while helping this match surpass what is a pretty big total games line with all things considered.

There will be some tension to deal with as both players chase the victory that may be enough to secure a Semi Final spot and that may play its part in the contest. Serving well is the best way to control nerves though and I will look for both players to produce their best in this department to ensure enough games are needed to cover the line.

Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 games v Jannik Sinner: Winning a couple of titles and having a couple of other strong runs since the end of the US Open pushed Jannik Sinner into a high enough Ranking to be set as the first alternate at the World Tour Finals. While he will be glad to have an opportunity to play in front of his home fans in the first year the Tour Finals have been played in Turin, Jannik Sinner is likely to be the first to feel for compatriot Matteo Berrettini who has had to withdraw from the event.

The Tour Finals have been played for a long time, but there is a potential of a first this time around and that is having an alternate entering the tournament and then securing passage out of the Group. After crushing Hubert Hurkacz, Jannik Sinner has a chance of doing that as long as the Pole has been able to beat Alexander Zverev earlier in the day.

Having a chance of progressing would be a bonus for Sinner, but I don't think elimination will dent the enthusiasm nor will it quieten down the crowd who will be firmly behind the Italian number two. That should see Jannik Sinner bring his best tennis to the court after a very strong performance a couple of days ago.

Motivation for Daniil Medvedev is harder to understand having put in a huge effort to beat Alexander Zverev a couple of days ago, a result that has secured the Group win and likely avoiding Novak Djokovic before the Final. With that in the bag and with a Semi Final to be played in a couple of days, you have to wonder how much fight Daniil Medvedev will have in this match.

However, I do think the Russian is someone who will be using the energy in the crowd to really give himself a good chance and that should also be a motivating factor for Daniil Medvedev who has previously produced some of his best tennis when seemingly dealing with the crowd as much as anything else.

Daniil Medvedev will also want to just produce a stronger performance than in his first two matches too as that can be important to show opponents that he is looking to win the title here. He has really served well at the ATP World Tour Finals, but the return has been surprisingly underachieving and I do think Medvedev will want to show more on that side of his tennis so he is ready to compete in the Knock Out Rounds.

The head to head has also seen Daniil Medvedev largely dominate Jannik Sinner and both wins have come on an indoor hard court. Those wins have both come in Marseille in 2020 and 2021 and Daniil Medvedev has been able to get a lot more from his serve compared with the young Italian and that has allowed Medvedev pull clear and cover the handicap mark he has been set in this match.

In those two matches, Daniil Medvedev has held 90% of his service games and won 74% of the points played behind serve compared with Jannik Sinner's 65% and 56% marks respectively in those categories.

Those are vastly encouraging numbers, although the motivation side is a concern, and I do think Daniil Medvedev will enjoy playing with the crowd against him. It should see him just show Jannik Sinner that there is still some work to do to challenge the very top players on the Tour and leave him waiting for his first ever top five win on the Tour.

Jannik Sinner has struggled to hold onto serve in those matches, and while he will be aided by the faster conditions here, I do think Daniil Medvedev can find a way to win and cover.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev-Hubert Hurkacz Over 22.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

WTA Finals: 7-8, - 3.84 Units (30 Units Staked, - 12.80% Yield)

ATP Finals: 3-0, + 5.16 Units (6 Units Staked, + 86% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Tennis Day 4 Picks 2020 (November 18th)

The O2 Arena does not feel right without the fans, but for a brief period of time you could have been forgiven for forgetting about that and concentrating on the really good tennis produced by Dominic Thiem and Rafael Nadal. It was the Austrian who not only came out on top, but Qualified for the Semi Final, and the US Open Champion must be feeling good about his chances of going one better than last year.

Rafael Nadal made some late mistakes which proved to be costly on the day, but he has to be pretty happy with where his game is at as he will look to confirm his place in the final four with a win on Friday.

The run of winners from the tournament came to an end on Tuesday with Andrey Rublev missing out on Match Point in his three set loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas, That has ended the Russian's hopes of progressing in London, but it has been a strong season and one to build on next year.

On Wednesday Group Tokyo 1970 will see the second Round Robin matches completed and it is another day where we could see one player exit and one player move into the Semi Final to be played on Saturday. Both matches bring intrigue onto the court and my Picks from those can be read below.

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: Both of these players were pretty comfortably beaten on Monday which has put the pressure on both Alexander Zverev and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman when they take to the O2 Arena court for the second time this week. Straight set defeats can be devastating in the Group Stage and likely means the winner of this one is going to have to do the same again on Friday to progress to the Semi Final.

The 'easier' path looks to be with Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who was beaten by World Number 1 and ATP World Tour Finals favourite Novak Djokovic in his first match. He will feel there is more of an opportunity against Zverev and then Daniil Medvedev, while the German is likely going to have to beat Djokovic in his last match.

It will all be for nought to worry about permutations at this stage of the Group and the sole focus has to be on winning this match and then seeing where that player stands on Friday morning.

You do have to like the chances of Alexander Zverev to bounce back as he continues to try and focus on his tennis rather than the problematic issues he is having off the court. He was in good form heading into the World Tour Finals and even the defeat to Medvedev should not have knocked the confidence too much for Zverev who has had some very big wins on this court over the past few years.

With that in mind I am sure Alexander Zverev still feels there is an opportunity for him to reach the Semi Final this week and his performances on the indoor hard courts should be too much for Diego Sebastian Schwartzman. I have to really respect the kind of level that the latter has found on the Tour and even to reach this tournament is a huge achievement for Schwartzman, but the surface and the conditions do not favour him.

He wasn't in great form in the matches played on the indoor hard courts prior to the World Tour Finals and I mentioned that Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has struggled against the elite players on this surface before his loss to Novak Djokovic on Monday.

These two players might be at 2-2 in the head to head, but it would be foolish to ignore the fact that Alexander Zverev has won both of their matches on the indoor hard courts including in the Cologne Final last month. Those two wins have been very one-sided and Zverev has not dropped serve in either, while also breaking at least three times.

He did not serve well in his defeat to Daniil Medvedev, but Alexander Zverev should be much happier with this match up and I think the German will win. You can guarantee Diego Sebastian Schwartzman will put up a fight, but his own serve is very attackable on this surface and I will look for Alexander Zverev to cover this handicap mark.

Novak Djokovic-Daniil Medvedev over 22.5 games: The 'Big Three' may still be the players to beat on the ATP Tour, but there are some up and coming players who are looking to break that dominance and look capable of doing that in the years ahead. One of those is Daniil Medvedev who looks to have all the tools to become a Grand Slam Champion on the hard courts and who has already surpassed his first appearance at the World Tour Finals by winning his opening match on Monday.

Now the young Russian player gets ready to take on World Number 1 Novak Djokovic who will be desperate to win this tournament for a sixth time. While impressing in his opening win, Novak Djokovic will be the first to admit that the two remaining matches are expected to be much more difficult than the one he has faced already.

Previous matches against Daniil Medvedev have been very competitive and there is no doubting Medvedev's confidence having won the Paris Masters in the lead up to the World Tour Finals. Novak Djokovic was not involved in that tournament, but he has only played four matches since being hammered in the French Open Final by Rafael Nadal and I do think that this is a considerable step up from the previous four opponents.

He did snap a two match losing run to Daniil Medvedev when beating him back in January in the lead up to the Australian Open. However it was the third time in a row a best of three set match between Medvedev and Novak Djokovic has gone the distance and there is a feeling that this one will be no different.

In fact only one of their previous six matches has ended in straight sets and while the numbers suggest that Novak Djokovic has had the better of the play, their last two matches on the hard courts have shown how closely these two are matched. Both have needed three sets to separate these players and they have finished 1-1, but Novak Djokovic has a narrow advantage of holding 80% of his service games compared with 77% for Daniil Medvedev.

The World Number 1 does seem to protect his serve a little more than Daniil Medvedev, but there isn't much between them and it may come down to who is more clinical when the break point chances are made.

My personal feeling is that Novak Djokovic will edge to a victory here, but I am not sure it will be in straight sets. Even a tight two setter will suit me as I look for the total games line to be surpassed by two players who have tended to push each other to the limits.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic-Daniil Medvedev Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)

World Tour Finals: 4-2, + 3.64 Units (12 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 8 Tennis Picks 2018 (November 18th)

Take away the ignorant fans who were watching the first Semi Final of the ATP World Tour Finals and it was two very strong performances that have left Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic standing to compete for the last Singles title of the 2018 season.

It also means the end of the season for the Tennis Picks in what has been a really good last six months to turn things around and produce a positive return after the difficulties of the last couple of years.

One more positive selection and I will then consider whether to make any plays from the Davis Cup Final before putting the tennis away until the beginning of the 2019 season.


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Alexander Zverev: It has been a really successful week for both Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic, but these players are meeting for the second time at the O2 Arena after Djokovic was able to get the better of Zverev in the Group Stage of the tournament.

The Alexander Zverev win over Roger Federer was very impressive and the young German is looking to take the next step in his career. He has won Masters events before, but this is arguably going to be the biggest tournament Zverev will have won if he can succeed on Sunday.

However he will recognise that there is a huge mountain in front of him having been beaten by Novak Djokovic twice in the last two months and both times in one-sided fashion.

It is hard to see this going a different way when you think of how well Djokovic has been playing this week. Earlier on it looked like he may be suffering with a cold, but Djokovic looked at his best on Saturday in the Semi Final and he has been serving lights out in the conditions here.

Djokovic has yet to be broken in the tournament which is very impressive, but he is simply not losing that many points either with 82% points on serve being won. It was Zverev who earned the only 2 break points Djokovic has faced this week and both came in a critical ninth game earlier this week which could have seen Zverev take control.

Once he failed to take his chances it was Djokovic who mentally wore down his younger foe and it is the World Number 1's return game that has helped him go on and win matches easily so far. He should be challenged by Zverev again with the 86% hold percentage he has in the tournament, but mentally the edge has to go with Djokovic who broke serve three times when they played in the Group and he really knocked the Zverev numbers both behind the first serve and second serve compared to the other three players the German has faced here.

It has to be said Zverev has not really returned as well as he would have hoped and that is another area where Djokovic should have the edge.

I backed Djokovic to cover this number of games earlier this week and nothing has happened to make me change my mind. I have so much time for Zverev, but he is off a big performance and it could be tough to find that intensity again when facing the best player in the World in the form he is in.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

ATP World Tour Finals: 8-7, + 4.30 Units (29 Units Staked, + 14.83% Yield)

NFL Week 11 Picks 2018 (November 15-19)

It was another mixed week for the NFL Picks but I have to say it was a highly frustrating one that could have been much better if only for one game.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers dominated the Washington Redskins in most of the statistical departments except they decided they would get to the Red Zone and then shoot themselves in the foot multiple times.

Missed Field Goals, Interceptions, stupid Sacks, it all went wrong for the Buccaneers who actually had Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing for more yards than the entire Washington Redskins had managed on the day and yet they were trailing 16-3 in the middle of the Fourth Quarter.

Dumb luck like that aside, most of the other picks went the way they should have done. New England and Philadelphia had no real right to cover after sub-par efforts, while the New York Jets were done and dusted by the end of the first half.

On the other hand Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Green Bay were dominant winners and Seattle played as well as I expected to get close, but ultimately fall short against the Los Angeles Rams.

Speaking of the Rams, Monday Night Football has been moved from Mexico City back to Los Angeles after the terrible condition of the field surface in the Stadium originally picked for the Rams and Kansas City Chiefs. The Rams have made the right decision to offer tickets to those who are helping contain the raging wildfires in California, but the Mexican fans are going to be rightly aggrieved that they are missing an international series game.

Ultimately the playing surface was dangerous and I can imagine both teams would not have risked key players in a year where the Super Bowl is a legitimate goal for the Rams and Chiefs. I can almost guarantee they let the NFL know that too and the right decision was made to send the game back to Los Angeles.


In Week 11 we have the final round of Bye Weeks for the majority of the League with only the Rams and Chiefs left out on Thanksgiving Weekend as they were expected to be coming back from Mexico City.  With that in mind it is a time of the season when things pick up in intensity and the pretenders are separated from the contenders in both Conferences.

The NFL have backloaded the schedule with Divisional games too so the importance of games will not be lost on the teams involved and I think that begins with the Thursday Night Football game between the Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers.

Both teams have a high chance of being involved in the Wild Card race in the NFC and have similar records which means the losing team could be left in a precarious position. It is an intense rivalry anyway and should open Week 11 with a bang.


Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: Two teams who have had some healthy games against each other in recent times as leaders of the NFC meet on Thursday Night Football in a bid to keep their Play Off hopes alive through Week 11. A loss would not be fatal to either teams chances of making the post-season, but both the Green Bay Packers and the Seattle Seahawks could be left in a situation where they need to win out to have a chance of playing Play Off Football in January.

They come into Week 11 after having contrasting Week 10 games with the Packers comfortably beating the Miami Dolphins at home and the Seahawks going down to a narrow loss to the Los Angeles Rams for a second time this season. Green Bay will be able to sympathise with that defeat to the Rams having come close to knocking off Los Angeles themselves, but it means neither the Packers nor Seattle have a winning record through the season.

That only intensifies things when the Packers and Seahawks meet in the regular season for the fifth season in a row and Seattle will be looking to turn the tide having lost the last couple of games which were both played at Lambeau Field.

The short week looks to give them a real chance to do that as Green Bay are going to be shorthanded in the Secondary with both Blake Martinez and Jaire Alexander looking like they won't be involved. It should be a boost for the Seattle Offensive unit which has played really well against the Los Angeles Rams in both games this season as Russell Wilson continues to get the most out of the talent around him.

A boost for Wilson is playing a Green Bay Defensive Line that have just begun to struggle to contain the run. The Seahawks are without a doubt a power football ream that want to establish the run first and foremost and Chris Carson should be returning from an injury to pair up with Rashaad Penny who had such a strong game against the Rams last Sunday.

Establishing the run is also the strength of the Seattle Offensive Line and Wilson is a mobile Quarter Back so there is plenty of signs pointing to the Seahawks being able to rip off some big chunks of yards on the ground. That is very important as the Seahawks are not built to play from behind the chains and Wilson is likely to be under some real pressure from the Green Bay pass rush whenever they are in obvious passing downs.

Getting into the backfield and disrupting the timing and perhaps even hitting the Running Back is very important for the Packers, but ultimately Seattle should find a way to move the chains with some consistency in this one.

The same can be said for the Green Bay Packers who saw Aaron Jones continue his fine start to life as a Packers Running Back. Ty Montgomery being shipped out to the Baltimore Ravens means Jones knows he is the premier Running Back for Green Bay and he has taken his chance very effectively barring one fumble against the New England Patriots.

Jones figures to have a big game against the Seattle Seahawks who are not the Defensive unit they once were. Running the ball against them has not been a major challenge for teams all season, and Green Bay look to have their starters in place on the Offensive Line to pick up from where they left off against the Miami Dolphins in Week 10. The Seahawks have also shown signs of wear and tear having given up 118 yards per game on the ground at 5.0 yards per carry through the 2018 season and seeing those numbers decline to 160 yards per game at 6.8 yards per carry in their last three at home.

Overall teams have continued to rip big chunks of yards on the ground against Seattle and the Seahawks can't exactly sell out and clamp down on Jones and Jamaal Williams when they playing alongside Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers has really played well against the Seattle Seahawks in recent years, but this time he isn't facing the Legion of Boom. Injuries to Receivers have depleted his options, but it is going to be difficult for the Seahawks to contain Rodgers especially if they can't control the line of scrimmage.

A pass rush can get to Rodgers if Green Bay get behind the chains, which is the same for the Seahawks, but the Quarter Back is arguably at his most mobile in 2018 and he is capable of making plays with his legs too.

All in all it looks a tough game to call with neither team being dominant at home/on the road respectively. They look to match up well with each other and both teams have played well on Thursday Night Football in recent years, especially against the spread.

It is Green Bay who have covered in each of the last four games played between these teams, but they have not been the same on the road as they have been at home. The perception may have been different if the Packers had beaten the Los Angeles Rams like they could have, but they do have something to prove away from Lambeau Field and Seattle have a very strong record against the spread when playing off a straight up loss.

My lean is taking the Packers with the points, but I can't pull the trigger on that because of their really poor road record.

Instead I am going to follow the trend of the recent Thursday Night Football games which have seen plenty of points scored. The lack of time between a Sunday game and a Thursday game does make it very difficult for Defensive units to get healthy and in six of the last seven weeks the total points line has been surpassed and in many occasions by a huge margin too.

Both teams can run the ball which may shorten the game, but I also think both are capable of securing huge chunks of yards on the ground which shouldn't affect their ability to score points. We also have two high quality Quarter Backs being able to throw into man coverage if the run games are established and I can see both teams getting to at least 24 points which should mean an 'over' game is produced.

A Seattle Seahawk win by exactly three points wouldn't surprise me here, but my pick this week comes from the total points market.


Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: Two 4-5 teams meet in an important game in Week 11 of the 2018 season and it may come as a surprise to some to see the Dallas Cowboys being given over a Field Goal worth of points in this one.

Well it will certainly be a surprise to those who are in the 'what have you done for me lately' group of people after seeing the Cowboys beat the defending Super Bowl Champions on the road and the Atlanta Falcons losing on the road to the Cleveland Browns last week.

However I do think the Falcons are a better team when they play at home and I would expect to see a reaction to the defeat last week. It also looks a far from ideal schedule spot for the Dallas Cowboys with this game coming between two Divisional battles including facing the current NFC East leaders Washington Redskins on Thanksgiving Day in Week 12.

The Falcons are also due to play on Thanksgiving Day with the third game scheduled for Thursday seeing the team head to the New Orleans Saints. However the Falcons will also recognise that this game is a big one for their Wild Card hopes with the Saints a little clear of them in the NFC South standings and so the feeling is that this game is going to get the top effort from the Falcons and perhaps a distracted one from the Cowboys.

On the face of things Dallas do have a chance to keep the points going after scoring 27 last week. This week they are facing a struggling Atlanta Defensive unit and Dallas found an Offensive groove which suggests they can pick up from where they left off. Ezekiel Elliot should find some strong running lanes against an Atlanta Defensive Line who have had a hard time clamping down on the run, while the Secondary have given up some big yards.

Atlanta do potentially have Deion Jones back from an injury which could give their Defensive unit a big boost, but I do have to wonder if he will be at full health. Jones' return is at least a positive for the team and should inspire his team-mates, while the Dallas Offensive Line is hurting so there is a real chance for the Atlanta Falcons to stall some drives with a heavy pass rush generated.

That is going to be the key side of the ball even if the Dallas Cowboys own Defense has been very good and underrated for much of the season. There is no doubt Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons feel very comfortable at home when it comes to scoring points and moving the chains and they should be able to do that with success for much of the afternoon through the air.

As well as Dallas have played Defensively, slowing down Atlanta will be a real challenge for them and the position of this game is not ideal for them as far as I am concerned.

The Cowboys are 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five games following a win and they are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven versus the Atlanta Falcons. At the odds against quotes I will back the Falcons to win and cover in this potentially vital Wild Card place before both teams get ready for a short week with both scheduled for Thanksgiving Day action.


Houston Texans @ Washington Redskins Pick: For the first time in the history of the NFL a team managed to put up over 500 yards of Offense but fail to score more than three points. That is absolutely the reason the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were not able to beat the Washington Redskins in Week 10 but the home team can't expect to have that kind of fortune again.

The Buccaneers actually had over 200 more yards than Washington on the day as the latter struggled to really get any consistency going on the Offensive side of the ball. While the result was not one I expected, I do think the Buccaneers proved to be the right side on the day and I simply had not accounted for so many terrible mistakes in the Red Zone.

Washington will need the Houston Texans to produce a sloppy game out of their Bye Week if they are going to produce another win here. Like last week, the Redskins are still suffering with some major injuries on the Offensive Line as well as in the Receiving unit and they are not going to have an easy day moving the chains.

Running the ball against the Houston Texans is a tough task at the best of times, but I really don't think Adrian Peterson is going to get going when he is also having to run behind a banged up Offensive Line. He struggled with the Buccaneers Defensive Line last week and this Houston Defensive Line have been strong against the run which means it is going to be very difficult for Alex Smith.

The Quarter Back is playing in a system where the Redskins need to be in front of the chains if they are going to move the ball with any consistency. If the Redskins are struggling to run the ball there is real pressure on Smith to make plays with his arm and that won't be helped with the Offensive Line trying to contain JJ Watt and Jadaveon Clowney without their starters on that Line.

There are some holes in the Houston Secondary which can be exploited, but Smith may not have the time to make the throws he needs.

Instead Washington will need Deshuan Watson to have the same day as Ryan Fitzpatrick in making mistake after mistake despite a huge statistical game in terms of yards earned. Unfortunately for the Redskins Watson is not really likely to do that like the veteran and I think Houston will be in a position to win this game with a good margin between them and Washington.

Watson will have had a couple of weeks to work Demaryius Thomas into the Offense as he fills the boots of injured Will Fuller, while DeAndre Hopkins is going to get some big yards as he tends to do. After seeing the way Fitzpatrick carved up the Washington Secondary last week, Watson should be able to have one of his better games of the season.

Lamar Miller could have some limited success running the ball too which can help the passing game excel, but I think the key will be to put the ball in Watson's hands and trust the Quarter Back to make the right decisions. He has done that more often than not and coming out of the Bye Week could see the Houston Texans take advantage of the schedule spot which has the Washington Redskins playing a huge Divisional game in four days time.

Houston have covered in their last four games coming out of a Bye Week and the favourite has covered in the last four games in this series. With that game with Dallas coming up for Washington, I wouldn't be surprised if they struggle for intensity in this one as they look to get healthier and I think Watson and the Houston Texans take advantage of that.


Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions Pick: Three losses in a row have dropped the Detroit Lions into the basement of the NFC North and they are also three games below 0.500 going into this Week 11 game. We are at that time of the season when you can't afford too many more setbacks especially not in the position the Detroit Lions find themselves, but they have another difficult game on their hands days before hosting their traditional Thanksgiving Day game against NFC North leaders the Chicago Bears.

Being distracted and focused on that game will not be a good look for the Lions who won't have a lot left to play for at 3-7 if they are to lose this game.

I hate being on the same side as the public when they are heavily favouring a road favourite, but I do expect to see a big reaction from the Carolina Panthers. The last time the Panthers played they were being blown out by the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night Football in Week 10, but they do look like they match up very well with the Lions and I do think they are the team more likely to have a response to a defeat.

Carolina will look to run the ball first and foremost, but it may not be as easy as it was once was with Snacks Harrison coming in from the New York Giants to aid the Detroit Defensive Line. There has been an improvement in the yards per carry given up by the Lions since Harrison arrived, but the feeling is that Detroit are playing the team most comfortable running the ball in that time.

With Cam Newton at Quarter Back, Detroit will know Carolina can run the RPO plays much better than most, and they can't sell out on the Quarter Back with Christian McCaffrey around. Between those two players and this Offensive Line, the Panthers will feel they can establish the run and that should make it easier for Newton to employ play-action and make some big throws down the field against a vulnerable Secondary.

Detroit have to find a way to try and run the ball too if they are going to make this a competitive game. Kerryon Johnson has not had a couple of good games and the Panthers have been strong up front which has allowed them to clamp down on the run and it could mean the Lions are going to have to rely on Matthew Stafford to get them into a position to win this game.

Stafford has had it tough with the team deciding to trade away Golden Tate to the Philadelphia Eagles at the trade deadline. It almost underlines where Detroit see themselves as far as being a Play Off contender is concerned and it also means Stafford has been left without a vital safety blanket in the passing game.

It has also definitely contributed to Stafford holding the ball a little longer than he is used to and that has led to more Sacks which is a concern against this Carolina team. I would still expect Stafford to make some good plays through the air against this Carolina Secondary, but drives are likely to stall with pressure in Stafford's face and the strength of the Panthers in the trenches likely to be a key to the outcome of this one.

As I said earlier, I expect the Panthers to bounce back effectively from a loss and they are 10-1 against the spread in their last eleven following a defeat. Carolina are not a great road team, but Detroit are 3-10 against the spread in their last thirteen against a team with a winning record and I am going to join the public and back Carolina to win and cover here.


Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints Pick: Opposing the hottest team in the NFL is not something the public want anything to do with, but I am going to be backing the Philadelphia Eagles with the points when they head to the New Orleans Saints in Week 11.

The New Orleans Saints have won eight straight games which means they are in line to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC and Drew Brees has been in magical form. Every week it seems like Brees is breaking another record and the Saints have been overpowering teams with their Offensive unit playing very much at the peak of their powers.

Brees is clearly still operating as one of the best Quarter Backs in the NFL, but the Saints have a very strong balance Offensively with two strong Running Backs to complement the passing game. Both Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara can be dangerous running the ball and catching out of the backfield, while Michael Thomas is flourishing at Receiver where Brandon Marshall has been signed to give the team a veteran presence.

It looks like the Eagles are going to have a very difficult day stopping the saints with injuries piling up in the Secondary. There have been signs of wear and tear on the Defensive Line too as the Eagles have begun to give up some big plays on the ground and they couldn't contain Ezekiel Elliot last week which suggests the Saints are going to have a strong day moving the ball both on the ground and through the air.

Over the course of the season the Eagles have shown they can clamp down on the run, but they will also want to get some pressure on Brees and see if they can disrupt the passing game. Philadelphia have to also hope the Saints are perhaps not as concentrated as they should be with a Thanksgiving Day home game to come in four days time against a Divisional rival.

Another key for the Eagles to remain competitive is looking for what is a very good Offensive team to try and impose themselves on a New Orleans Defensive unit that have yet to reach the heights of last season. Carson Wentz was guilty of some poor decisions in the loss to the Dallas Cowboys, but overall the Eagles haven't played too badly on that side of the ball and the defending Super Bowl Champions have been a competitive team for the 2018 season even with their 4-5 record.

It will be down to Wentz because the Saints have generally played the run very well in 2018 and the Eagles have los Jay Ajayi and not looked convincing since then. The Quarter Back should have success though because the Eagles have some talented Receivers who should be able to get the better of this Saints Secondary which has given up some major yards through the air all season.

That is the key with a spread of over a Touchdown worth of points being given to the road team. As hard as it is to oppose the New Orleans Saints, there is every chance a competitive Eagles team can find the backdoor cover in this one.

You can't ignore some of the trends that the New Orleans Saints have put together, but Philadelphia are 7-3 against the spread following a loss. This is a big number for the Saints to cover against a team who can be as Offensively strong as the Eagles, while the potential distraction of a Thanksgiving Day game is underlined by the Saints going 1-4 against the spread in their last five against a team with a losing record.

No one will ever overlook the defending Super Bowl Champions, but New Orleans may feel the game with the Atlanta Falcons on deck is more important. Even if they are only slightly looking away from this game Philadelphia should have a chance with the amount of points they are being given and I like the Eagles with the start.


Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears Pick: The Green Bay Packers were beaten on the road again on Thursday Night Football and that means the NFC North Division lead is on the line on Sunday Night Football when the Minnesota Vikings head to the Chicago Bears.

Both teams have to be feeling good about their chances with the Chicago Bears having won four of their last five games to move to 6-3. The Minnesota Vikings have won three in a row to move back to a winning record at 5-3-1 and I do think the motivation will be high in both camps to take control of the Division.

The Bears are on the short week as they play on Thanksgiving Day this season when they visit Divisional rivals the Detroit Lions, but this is the bigger game for the team. It says a lot about how well the Bears have played this season that they would have been considered a 3 point home underdog in this game before the season started yet they come into this one as an almost full Field Goal favourite.

However there is a feeling a healthier Minnesota Defensive unit are rounding into very strong form to make it much more difficult for the Chicago Bears than it has been Offensively in recent games. Mitchell Trubiskey has been playing really well at Quarter Back, but the pressure could be on the young signal caller's shoulders with the Vikings able to clamp down on the run thanks to a healthier Defensive Line.

Tarik Cohen could be a threat leaking out of the backfield to catch passes, but I don't think he or Jordan Howard are going to rip off huge chunks on the ground and the Vikings could force the Bears to try and beat them through the air. It won't be easy for Trubiskey to do that as the Vikings have given up just 166 passing yards per game over their last three games and the last two games have seen them face Matt Stafford and Drew Brees.

If the Vikings have been able to contain the run as they have been, they have shown they can produce a huge pass rush to really put pressure on opponents although recent numbers have been skewed by the way they dominated the Detroit Lions. Even removing that game and you can see the Vikings can get some pressure up front so the Bears won't really want to be playing behind the chains in this one.

Stopping the run has been a strength of the Chicago Bears too as their Defensive unit have taken another step up in quality thanks in part to the arrival of Khalil Mack from the Oakland Raiders. Even with Dalvin Cook back for the Vikings, it could be difficult for Minnesota to really get something going on the ground, but in Kirk Cousins they have a Quarter Back who will be pleased to put the pressure on his back.

Cousins can sometimes make some horrendous decisions, but he has also shown he is a very competent Quarter Back and there are some special Receivers he is throwing to. Stefon Diggs is back this week in all likelihood and Adam Thielen will suit up too which will give Minnesota the chance to move the chains against a tough Secondary.

The Bears have a fierce pass rush which will feel can get the better of the Minnesota Offensive Line, and that pressure can force Quarter Backs into mistakes. That has to be a concern for Kirk Cousins but I think he is someone who can thrive in these situations too and I do like the Vikings to edge out the Bears in this big NFC North game.

Minnesota do have a poor record against the spread in recent visits to Chicago, but they have won six of the last seven overall in this series and this time the pressure of expectation is on the Bears who are favoured for the first time since 2014.

The Bears have been underrated in recent games and that has created some positive trends in their favour. However I like the Vikings coming out of a Bye Week to show they are still the team to beat in the NFC North and I will take the points with the superior Quarter Back to make the right plays in what could be a Defensive dominated game.

MY PICKS: Seattle Seahawks-Green Bay Packers Over 48 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons - 3.5 Points @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Houston Texans - 3 Points @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Week 10: 4-4, - 0.44 Units (16 Units Staked, - 2.75% Yield)
Week 9: 3-5, - 4.20 Units (16 Units Staked, - 26.25% Yield)
Week 8: 7-1, + 11.16 Units (16 Units Staked, + 69.75% Yield)
Week 7: 4-4, - 0.38 Units (16 Units Staked, - 2.38% Yield)
Week 6: 4-4, - 0.47 Units (14 Units Staked, - 3.36% Yield)
Week 5: 1-6, - 10.10 Units (14 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)
Week 4: 5-3-1, + 3.18 Units (18 Units Staked, + 17.67% Yield)
Week 3: 5-5, - 1.42 Units (17 Units Staked, - 8.35% Yield)
Week 2: 6-1, + 9.46 Units (14 Units Staked, + 67.57% Yield)
Week 1: 6-2, + 7.34 Units (16 Units Staked, + 45.88% Yield)


Season 2018: 45-35-1, + 14.13 Units