ATP World Tour Finals Day 8 Tennis Picks 2023- Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic (November 19th)

It has been a fun week in Turin as the Singles Tour comes to a close in 2023.

We still have the Davis Cup to be handed out, but for most, this will be the end of the season and preparation will begin for the 2024 season and the first Grand Slam at the Australian Open.

On Sunday, we have a rematch of a Group Stage match to determine the next World Tour Finals Champion and it should be played in a very good atmosphere as Novak Djokovic looks to win another big title.

Jannik Sinner will see this as a chance to lay down a marker for what can be achieved in 2024 and it has the makings of a very good end to the 2023 season.

Novak Djokovic - 2.5 games v Jannik Sinner: They met in the Group Stage of the ATP World Tour Finals and both Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner have come through their Semi Final matches on Saturday to compete for the last Singles title of 2023.

Jannik Sinner won their Group match in three tough sets, and he managed to win all four matches played in Turin in front of his home fans. However, one of those wins, the one over Holger Rune, is the only reason that Novak Djokovic is still involved in the tournament and the World Number 1 looks to be peaking with his best performance this week being in the Semi Final win over rival Carlos Alcaraz.

Nothing will come easy for Novak Djokovic in this one and he will know that this is a tough match having lost Group contest. It was a match that lasted over three hours and Sinner finally was able to get the better of Novak Djokovic in their fourth meeting on the Tour.

That will have given him confidence, but Jannik Sinner also needed three sets to beat Daniil Medvedev in the Semi Final and he has played a lot of tennis this week. There were some signs of fatiguing in the Semi Final win, while Jannik Sinner won the big points in the Group win over Novak Djokovic and it will not take a lot for the World Number 1 to turn things around and defend his title won here last year.

Jannik Sinner has really been making good use of the conditions in Turin and his serve has been a big weapon for him, as it was in the win over Djokovic.

However, it should be noted that the Italian won 69% of the points played on serve compared with Novak Djokovic's 73% mark in that match.

Over the course of the tournament, Novak Djokovic has had a narrow edge with the returning performance and that may show up in this Final.

The margins are expected to be tight, as they have been in most matches played this week in fast conditions, but you have to believe that Novak Djokovic will be extra motivated after losing in the Group. He will have a much better feel for the kind of atmosphere he will face and Djokovic has proven to be someone that can gain a lot of motivation over perceived slights.

In all likelihood, Novak Djokovic would have learned plenty from the loss earlier this week and he is expected to find the solutions needed to turn things around.

The pricing is basically the same as it was when these two players met in the Group Stage, but this time it looks worth backing the World Number 1 to do enough to edge past Jannik Sinner and cover this handicap mark.

MY PICK: Novak Djokovic - 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 9-3, + 8.52 Units (24 Units Staked, + 35.50% Yield)

NFL Week 11 Picks 2023 (November 16-20)

Week 10 proved to be the joint-worst performance of the season for the NFL Picks so the focus in Week 11 is to bounce back.

It is perhaps not a surprise that Week 10 was as indifferent as it was considering the upsets littered throughout the League, although there was a touch of misfortune with a couple of the selections.

The Green Bay Packers lost by four points (+ 3.5) and the New York Jets had their chances on Sunday Night Football as that fanbase is beginning to accept that this is going to be a lost season.

You do have to question the Jets management- as soon as Aaron Rodgers went down with a potentially season-ending injury after just a handful of snaps, they had to have known that Zach Wilson was not going to get it done at Quarter Back... I mean they traded for Rodgers knowing Wilson needed time away from the spotlight and the chance to work under a future Hall of Famer.

Fans will be looking at the Minnesota Vikings with plenty of envy- their decision to bring in Joshua Dobbs as soon as Kirk Cousins was placed on Injured Reserve has actually given the team every chance of making the PlayOffs.

He might not be an elite Quarter Back, but Dobbs could have made enough plays to back up a fantastic Jets Defensive unit and they would certainly feel they could challenge those top teams in the AFC.

Instead, Jets fans may already be thinking about the off-season and hoping for better in 2024 when Aaron Rodgers will be back.

A number of the top teams from my top five list from last week are returning from Bye Weeks so there is not a massive change in the standings.

1) Philadelphia Eagles (8-1): we are going to learn plenty about the Eagles in Week 11 as they take part in a Super Bowl rematch.

2) Kansas City Chiefs (7-2): the winner of that Monday Night Football game is going to be the number one team in these standings next week.

3) Detroit Lions (7-2): I had them down at number four last week, but a good win on the road at the Chargers and a healthier looking team pushes them up one place.

4) San Francisco 49ers (6-3): health is the key for the 49ers and they looked rejuvenated out of their Bye Week. A crushing road win over the Jaguars in Chase Young's debut pushes the 49ers right back amongst the elite in the NFL.

5) Baltimore Ravens (7-3): there are a number of teams that could have placed here after the Ravens lost to the Cleveland Browns in disappointing fashion in Week 10. A response is expected from Baltimore and we will know much more about this team, which is dealing with injuries, after a big Thursday Night Football game coming up.

The halfway mark is passed and the majority of teams have completed their Bye Weeks, which means the focus will be very much on building some momentum towards the PlayOffs.

The AFC remains very competitive right up and down the Divisions, while some separation is beginning to be seen in the NFC. These situations can change in a couple of weeks, but you could probably pick five of the seven NFC PlayOff teams right now with confidence and even the extra couple of places could be shored up sooner than later.

On the other side, teams like the Denver Broncos at 4-5 may feel they still have an opportunity to push into the Wild Card places and so games within that Conference are going to feel that much more important.

Selections in Week 11 begin with the Thursday Night Football AFC North game and this thread will have further Picks added to it over the next couple of days.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: We are at that time of the season when you begin to see some separation within Divisions and ultimately Conferences. In Week 10 it was stated that if the season was to end, the AFC North would have four teams featuring in the PlayOffs, while all four teams still have a winning record.

However, the Baltimore Ravens (7-3) and Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) will be looking to bounce back from incredibly disappointing defeats.

The Ravens blew a big home lead in the Fourth Quarter in a loss to Divisional rivals Cleveland Browns and have dropped to 2-2 in the AFC North, while only holding a narrow lead over the aforementioned Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Things did not feel much better for the Cincinnati Bengals who were upset by the Houston Texans and have actually dropped behind the Texans in the overall Conference standings.

It makes this Week 11 Thursday Night Football clash take on even more importance and games like this one could be pivotal in the final standings shake up.

Injuries have hurt both of these teams after Week 11 and there is little doubt that a short week will likely mean some key players will be missing out.

So while the Baltimore Ravens would love to get back to basics and run the ball effectively through Gus Edwards and Quarter Back Lamar Jackson, it might be a tougher task without some key Offensive Linemen. Ronnie Stanley will be a huge miss for the Ravens, even if Morgan Moses is expected back, and the Ravens may not be able to exploit the run Defense of the Bengals as much as they would if they were fully healthy.

Even then, you have to expect the Ravens to have success running the ball, while Lamar Jackson will be grateful that Sam Hubbard has been ruled out for the Bengals. Trey Hendrickson is going to play, but it should mean Jackson is able to bounce back from the mistakes made that ultimately cost Baltimore the win over the Cleveland Browns.

The Offensive passing game has yet to really operate at a level that many would have hoped, but Lamar Jackson is throwing into a Secondary that has struggled to defend the pass. It should help the Ravens if Jackson is in third and manageable when looking down the field and Baltimore have scored at least 30 points in four games in a row as they prepare to try and beat the Bengals for a second time this season.

Doing so will be tough and Joe Burrow is much healthier now than when the teams met in mid-September.

However, Burrow will be without Tee Higgins and the Ravens have a Defensive unit that have played very well this season, even with the capitulation against the Browns in mind. They were not helped by the Offense struggling as they did, and the potential absence of Marlon Humphrey is a big blow, but the Ravens have to believe they can make enough stops to edge this game.

Controlling the Line of Scrimmage is important for Baltimore and they will look to at least lock down Joe Mixon as a runner, although he can still be a threat as a pass catching Running Back.

They can bring some pressure against Joe Burrow, although this is an elite Quarter Back capable of making plays against the best Defensive units, even without a Receiver like Tee Higgins to help. Ja'Marr Chase has been a little banged up too and so it does feel like a challenging game for Burrow and the Bengals on a short week.

Trusting the Baltimore Ravens after what we saw last week is not easy, but you also have to remember they blew out the likes of the Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks in home games before that. They are banged up and Divisional games in the AFC North have a habit of becoming tight and competitive right to triple zeroes.

It has been the Cincinnati Bengals who have gotten the better of recent meetings between these AFC North rivals, but the short week may favour the home team as both teams look to overcome being without some banged up bodies.

Both of these teams have been strong bouncing back from a loss, while they have strong trends as the home favourite/road underdog respectively.

My edge is with the Baltimore Ravens Defensive unit being able to make one or two bigger plays than their Cincinnati counterparts and that may make the difference in a pivotal Divisional game.

It would have been very nice if we could have gotten Baltimore below a key number, but the feeling is that they still cover and remain in control of this tough Division.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Double digit spreads are usually there to be opposed, but it has not been a bad approach for the NFL Picks this season to back big favourites to cover in the right spots.

This might be the right spot for the Miami Dolphins (6-3) who return from the Bye Week with their position at the top of the AFC East strengthened as the Buffalo Bills continue to struggle. They do have to avoid thinking ahead to a Black Friday clash with the New York Jets, which is a new addition to the NFL schedule, but losing in Germany to the Kansas City Chiefs and having two weeks to think about that should mean a big effort is put together by the Dolphins.

Mike McDaniels has made it clear that there is an importance to winning the Division and earning at least one home PlayOff game, while the remaining schedule is one that could see Miami push much higher than a Number 4 Seed they currently hold.

Miami will have to respect the fact that the Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) have won two in a row and are still firmly in the Wild Card race in the AFC, while interim Head Coach Antonio Pierce is earning a lot more respect from those in the Raiders locker room than predecessor Josh McDaniels.

However, the Raiders are playing with a rookie Quarter Back these days and wins over the two New York teams is not something that is going to impress that many people.

The expectation is that Miami will return from the Bye Week looking a bit healthier and they do match up pretty well with the Raiders from their Defensive standpoint. Shutting down Josh Jacobs is very important and the Miami Defensive Line have played the run pretty well through the entirety of the season and that will force the pressure onto the shoulders of Aidan O'Connell.

Completely clamping down on Jacobs is not going to be easy, but the Dolphins can do enough up front and then believe their scoring power may force the Raiders to need O'Connell's arm to keep up. He has a big time Receiver in Davante Adams, but O'Connell has only needed to throw for a little over 350 passing yards to help the Raiders win their last couple of games, while having 1 Touchdown pass and 1 Interception to his name since replacing Jimmy Garoppolo as the starting Quarter Back.

The Jets Secondary gave him problems and Vic Fangio has a healthier Miami Secondary that will certainly believe they can largely control what the Raiders can bring to the field. The pass rush is effective enough to rattle this Vegas Offensive Line and it may be a tough day for the Raiders on this side of the ball playing in the early Eastern Time slot.

Las Vegas have played well Defensively in their last two games, but facing Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson is not exactly ideal preparation to deal with the Miami passing attack.

Recent games have just slowed the hype train, but the Dolphins have a stronger looking Offensive Line this week out of their Bye. Injuries have not helped get the run game going, which has been massively important for Miami, although the expectation is that they get back to basics in Week 11 and can pound the Raiders on the ground.

It will be a case of picking your poison for the Raiders considering the top two Receivers Miami will have on the field and Tua Tagovailoa may have enough time to make sure Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle are getting loose in the Secondary. The Dolphins have been massively impressive at home this season, where they are 4-0 against the spread, and they have the scoring power to pull away and put a crushing win on the board before focusing on the New York Jets.

The Raiders have been competitive for much of this season, but their biggest loss was at the Buffalo Bills and Miami might come out and put a big number on them here.

Miami are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight coming out of a Bye Week and beat the Houston Texans by 15 points in Mike McDaniels first season in 2022. Under their current Head Coach, the Dolphins are 8-2 against the spread as the home favourite too and all of their home wins have been by at least 14 points.

A backdoor cover is always possible when dealing with a spread of this size, but the Miami Dolphins should be angry with their performance in Germany two weeks ago and they can get on top of the Las Vegas Raiders and force a couple of mistakes from a rookie Quarter Back to ensure a big win.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Time may feel it is running out for both of these teams if they have a genuine ambition of making the PlayOffs.

As we enter Week 11, the Green Bay Packers (3-6) and Los Angeles Chargers (4-5) have to get going as the two teams sit in 11th and 12th place in their respective Conferences. Winning Divisions is almost impossible for the teams, but the Wild Card Race has to be targeted, although the pressure is on the Packers and Chargers to put together strong winning runs.

Both come into this game having lost tight games in Week 10, which would have felt like a body blow. Injuries are not aiding either team, while the Green Bay Packers have to try and focus and not concern themselves with their Thanksgiving Day game at the Detroit Lions, which is played in Week 12.

Trading away Aaron Rodgers and turning to Jordan Love has been a real tough transition for the Packers, but the new Quarter Back will be frustrated by the injuries all around him. He is also throwing to a young Receiving corps and the main leaders as far as skill players go have not been available on the Offensive side of the ball.

Out of the two teams, the Chargers have shown a bit more life of late and had won two in a row before losing to the Detroit Lions in Week 10, but the Green Bay Packers fans might be seeing shoots of life from the struggling Offensive unit. This will bode well going into 2024 and Jordan Love and company can at least challenge their visitors, who are well backed by the public.

Aaron Jones is back and that means the Packers can at least rely on the run with Jones and AJ Dillon keys to any success they can put together. This was the plan at the start of the season and they can certainly get something going on the ground against this Chargers Defensive Line, which in turn should mean Jordan Love is able to find a bit more time to operate at Quarter Back.

Slowing down the Chargers pass rush will be an important part of being able to run the ball successfully, while third and manageable is always important for inexperienced Quarter Backs. Jordan Love will know there are some holes in the Chargers Secondary that can be exploited if he is given time and Green Bay look like a team that should be able to move the ball with some consistency throughout this contest.

A couple of weeks ago you might have suggested the same for the Los Angeles Chargers, but injuries have really hurt them on the Offensive side of the ball. Keenan Allen is going to play through the pain, but Mike Williams, Joshua Palmer and Gerald Everett are all out and Green Bay are going to be bolstered in the Secondary with Jaire Alexander finally expected to suit up.

Justin Herbert is a top Quarter Back and will still find some places to throw the ball, but it is tough being down a number of Receivers that can complement Allen. It also has been difficult for Herbert knowing the Chargers Offensive Line have not been able to open too many running lanes throughout the course of the season and so Austin Ekeler's biggest plays may be as a pass catching Back.

Pittsburgh were able to wear down Green Bay up front last week with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combining for 183 yards on the ground, but it feels less likely that this Chargers team can do that. Kenny Pickett had less success throwing and having Alexander back in the Secondary could mean the home underdog has the edge in this contest.

The Packers failed to cover last week as the underdog and they are 0-4 against the spread in their last four in that spot this season.

It tempers some enthusiasm for this selection, although it should be noted that Green Bay are 1-1 against the spread as the home underdog. They are also facing a Los Angeles Chargers team that has not exactly flourished when set as the road favourite and who could overlook a non-Conference opponent when knowing the high-flying Baltimore Ravens are next on deck.

As long as Jordan Love can avoid the mistakes that have proven costly at times, the Green Bay Packers can keep this one close and perhaps even earn the outright upset to move onto the Detroit Thanksgiving Day game with some confidence.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns Pick: After big wins in Week 10 to remain on the coat-tails of the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North, fans of both of these teams would have been walking with a spring in their step.

However, the Cleveland Browns (6-3) fanbase have long anticipated something happening that would knock them out of their stride as they are not allowed to have good things happening with their team.

And on Monday, it happened.

Deshaun Watson played arguably his best game as a member of the team when leading them back to a win over the Ravens on the road, but it was soon revealed that he had picked up a shoulder injury and will miss the rest of the season. After losing Nick Chubb earlier in the season and with injuries ravaging key areas of their Offensive unit, the Browns now go with a backup Quarter Back the rest of the way.

The only surprise is that Dorian Thompson-Robinson will be given the keys to the Offense rather than PJ Walker. The latter made three starts while Watson was out earlier this season, but his 1 Touchdown and 5 Interceptions perhaps meant the Browns lost faith in him, although Walker was better than Dorian Thompson-Robinson who threw for 121 yards and had 3 Interceptions in his sole start.

Regardless of who will start (or finish) at Quarter Back, the Cleveland Browns know the Defensive unit is going to be key for them. In PJ Walker's three starts, the Browns won twice and they will feel that was down to the performance of the Defense rather than anything Walker was able to put together.

This week Dorian Thompson-Robinson will be tasked with 'not losing' the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3), a team that is massively over-performing compared with their overall numbers.

The Quarter Back would usually want to lean on the run game, but the Steel Curtain has been looking stronger up front in recent games and the focus for Pittsburgh may be to control the Line of Scrimmage and see if a rookie can beat them through the air. There are injuries in the Secondary that may be exploited, but it may be asking too much for Thompson-Robinson to do that, especially with the pass rush that the Steelers are likely to generate against a rookie that will need to go through his progressions when scanning the field.

Mike Tomlin has proven to be a very effective Head Coach and his Steelers team will be able to create chances Defensively, although they will be challenged on the other side of the ball by a very strong Cleveland Defensive unit.

The Steelers look to have gone back to 'old school' Steeler Football as they have leaned on the Offensive Line and two strong Running Backs to make sure the Offensive unit is moving the chains. In recent games there have been signs that the Pittsburgh Offensive Line is picking up their levels and they did rush for almost 200 yards through Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren alone last week against the Green Bay Packers.

Both of the Running Backs are expected to be key as the Steelers go for the road upset that will keep them right behind the Baltimore Ravens in the race for the AFC North. It has been made clear that the current levels of performances to produce wins should not be sustainable with Pittsburgh given up more yards than they gain, but the Steelers control the tempo of games and they will look to wear down Cleveland on the ground and then open up some passing lanes for Kenny Pickett.

The Quarter Back has struggled for consistency this season, but the Steelers are trying not to ask too much from Pickett, who has averaged under 160 passing yards per game in their last three games. The fact of the matter is that the Steelers have won the last two of those with that conservative approach and Mike Tomlin will not want his Quarter Back taking too many chances with a Browns Secondary that have thrived on creating Interceptions.

Turnovers are likely to be key to the outcome of this game and so playing a clean one when throwing the ball is vitally important.

After what we have seen from the backup Quarter Backs in Cleveland, you have to give a lean to the Pittsburgh Steelers, with the further addition being that the public are behind the home team.

Having the chance to oppose them here is not a bad thing, while Mike Tomlin's Pittsburgh have the best cover percentage as an underdog of any team in the NFL since taking over as Head Coach ahead of the 2007 season (55-32-5). Since Ben Roethlisberger retired, Pittsburgh are 7-3 against the spread as the road underdog and the feeling is that they will have a game plan that will frustrate either of the two Cleveland Quarter Backs that may end up taking snaps in this one.

Next week the Steelers face another backup Quarter Back against a AFC North rival so this is the chance for them to make hay and really begin to cement a PlayOff spot, even as a Wild Card team.

The Browns will play hard for their backup Quarter Back and they are 2-0 against the spread as the home favourite, but the Steelers may match up effectively with them in Week 11 and earn the road upset.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Pick: The team are going to get an incredibly high Draft Pick barring a strong turnaround in form from the Carolina Panthers, but players do not think about what a franchise is going to do in the future. Instead, the Chicago Bears (3-7) come out of a mini-Bye with a 2-2 record in the absence of Justin Fields.

In Week 11, Fields is back on the, er, field, for the Chicago Bears as they look to spoil some of the fun for NFC North leaders Detroit Lions (7-2). At one point it felt like the Lions were going to dominate their Divisional rivals, but the Minnesota Vikings are creating a challenge within the North and the Lions will have to face them twice in the final three weeks of the regular season.

No will be looking that far ahead, but Thanksgiving Day could be a distraction with the Lions set to host the Green Bay Packers on the short week. They will still be focused on winning a Divisional game of course, but Detroit know they will have a big chance to underline their improvement to a national audience when opening the trio of Thanksgiving Day games.

Unsurprisingly the Chicago Bears have lost a couple of games by wide margins, but this is not an uncompetitive team and they have given Justin Fields plenty of time to return close to full health. That is important for them as they look to give the Lions something to think about in a tough road environment.

His ability to scramble from the Quarter Back position is important for the Bears and there is also the boost that the returning Khalil Herbert can give the running game. In recent games, it has been possible to establish the run against the Lions Defensive Line and having both Fields and Herbert in the backfield gives the Chicago Bears a chance to do that here and control some of the tempo of the game.

Justin Fields may also have a decent game throwing the ball- the Chicago Offensive Line has been pretty good in pass protection in recent games and the Lions are not flooding the backfield like usual, while establishing the run means they will have to be aware of the ability of Fields to get out of the pocket and scramble for First Downs too.

The feeling is the Bears can move the chains and they may also believe they are playing well enough to make the Detroit Lions a little one-dimensional on the other side of the ball.

The Bears Defensive Line has been very strong against the run all season and they may feel they can limit the one-two punch that has been so effective for Detroit all season. David Montgomery will be playing with a bit of fire having been allowed to leave the Bears despite securing 801 yards on the ground for them last season, but the Chicago Defensive Line have been very good defending the run and will look to force the Lions to take to the air.

Jared Goff won't be too concerned about that as the Bears Secondary have not matched the performance of those on the Defensive Line. Little pass rush pressure, even with the addition of Montez Sweat should mean Goff has all of the time he needs to locate some very good Receivers and the Lions should be able to move the ball when it is in their hands.

Of course the Bears may feel they can clamp down in the red zone and force Field Goals rather than Touchdowns, while a team throwing out of third and long on a semi-consistent basis makes it tough to keep converting.

You still have to expect the Lions to win and they have a solid 6-2 record against the spread when set as the home favourite since the beginning of the 2022 season.

They have also dominated the NFC North in that time with a perfect 7-0 record against the spread compared with a Chicago team that are 1-7 against the spread in Divisional games. It does not make me feel much better knowing the Bears are 0-5 against the spread in the last couple of seasons when playing off a win and the Detroit Lions are plenty dangerous Offensively.

However, it does feel the most likely spot where you may get a relatively flat performance from the Lions, while the Bears should have had plenty of time to prepare having played on Thursday Night Football in Week 10. Having those extra days and with Justin Fields returning at Quarter Back, coupled with the fact the Lions are returning home from a West Coast game with Thanksgiving Day looming large, and you have to feel the Bears can make this many points count.

It may need a backdoor cover to finally get over the line, but it looks a good situation for the Chicago Bears to do that with over a Touchdown worth of points in the bank.

MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Miami Dolphins - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers + 3 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Pittsburgh Steelers + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Chicago Bears + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Buffalo Bills - 7 Points @ 1.90 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Minnesota Vikings + 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

College Football Week 12 Picks 2022 (November 19th)

The penultimate week of the regular season is before us in the College Football year and there are still a number of permutations that could decide the PlayOff spots.

Some teams cannot afford a single loss, while the LSU Tigers are looking to make history by becoming the first two-loss team to be invited into the PlayOff. It is a tough path for the Tigers to run, but it will be hard to ignore them if they can win the SEC Championship in early December, while other potential Conference Champions will struggle to get into the PlayOff picture with even one loss.

Things will become a little clearer at the end of Week 12 with some big road tests ahead for some of the top Ranking teams.

TCU Horned Frogs @ Baylor Bears Pick: The latest College Football Rankings have kept the unbeaten TCU Horned Frogs (10-0) inside the top four places and it still feels like this is a team in control of their own destiny as far as the PlayOffs are concerned. The only unbeaten team in the Big 12 Conference will feel like they are guaranteed a place in the PlayOff as long as they remain unbeaten, but that means negotiating the two remaining regular season games and winning the Championship Game in early December.

No one will ever downplay the huge impact Gary Patterson had as Head Coach of the Horned Frogs, but the last four or five years had been difficult and it was perhaps no surprise that TCU and Patterson decided to part ways in 2021. With that in mind, Sonny Dykes arrived as the new Head Coach of the Horned Frogs with little expectation in Fort Worth in what many believed would be a rebuilding year.

Instead a hugely experienced line up have propelled the Horned Frogs to ten wins already, which doubles the five wins secured in their 2021 season. The win in Week 11 at the Texas Longhorns showed a different side of the TCU game with the Defensive unit stepping up to cover up for what was the worst Offensive output of the season and the Horned Frogs will feel plenty confident in remaining unbeaten.

The last road game of the season sees TCU heading to the Baylor Bears (6-4), but the defending Big 12 Champions are coming into this game off the back of a big home defeat to the Kansas State Wildcats. The blowout loss in Week 11 means the Bears are going to need to win their remaining two regular season games and hope that is good enough to see them return to the Big 12 Championship Game, although a number of results will have to go their way.

After producing just over 100 rushing yards in the defeat to the Kansas State Wildcats, the Baylor Bears will be under pressure to establish the run in this one. For much of the season the Offensive Line have been very strong at the line of scrimmage, but they may have a second tough outing in succession when facing a Horned Frogs Defensive Line that have clamped down up front and held teams to 3.7 yards per carry over their last three games.

Blake Shapen will need the running game if he is going to have a successful game at Quarter Back, especially as it will help him limit the mistakes he has been making. Two Interceptions hurt last week and Shapen now has 13 Touchdown passes with 8 Interceptions in the 2022 season before facing a TCU Secondary that have been much improved in recent wins.

Moving the chains and sustaining drives is important for the Baylor Bears if they are going to earn the home upset and likely end TCU's chances of reaching the PlayOffs.

However, the Horned Frogs Defensive Line is likely going to control the line of scrimmage on that side of the ball, while the Offensive Line have been rolling pretty efficiently in recent games. Kendre Miller had a solid game at Running Back in the win over the Texas Longhorns and he is expected to pick up from where he left off against this Bears Defensive Line, which is going to help Max Duggan at Quarter Back.

Like much of the Offensive unit, Max Duggan had his weakest outing of the season in the win over the Longhorns, but he has been careful with the ball all year. Establishing the run should give Max Duggan a bit more time to throw the ball from third and manageable positions on the field and there are some holes in the Baylor Secondary that could be exposed and give TCU a chance to keep the balance Offensively.

The TCU Horned Frogs have won two in a row against the Baylor Bears and they look to have the Offensive unit that can see them win in Waco and move to one more victory to secure an unbeaten regular season. They have been very good at covering the spread in recent road games, while Baylor are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven following a blow out loss at home.

Baylor did cover as the home underdog in both games where they were given points last season, but I do think the TCU Horned Frogs can get the better of them here and overcome this relatively small spread.

Georgia Bulldogs @ Kentucky Wildcats Pick: The situation is clear enough for the Georgia Bulldogs (10-0) that the defending National Champions will return to the PlayOffs as long as they win out in the regular season and then win the SEC Championship Game. One loss could potentially be overcome, as long as that is in the SEC Championship Game rather than in the regular season, but that is not a situation that the Bulldogs will want to flirt with.

They have been one of the leading contenders as far as the National Championship is concerned for a number of years, but the Georgia Bulldogs have not won the SEC Championship since 2017. Last season they were beaten by the Alabama Crimson Tide before redeeming themselves with a victory in the National Championship Game against the same opponent, but it would be a surprise if Kirby Smart's team are not crowned the Champions this season.

Style points matter to many teams in and around the PlayOff places, but that is unlikely to be a big concern for the Georgia Bulldogs who will not be able to be ignored if they are to win out. However, the Bulldogs are playing really well of late and look to be peaking at the right time and they are a big favourite when visiting the Kentucky Wildcats (6-4) in Week 12.

A loss to the Vanderbilt Commodores will have stung the Wildcats who have fallen well short of the ten wins recorded in 2021, but Kentucky return home this Saturday looking to offer much more resistance than they did when recently losing to the Tennessee Volunteers. That defeat was on the road, but the defeat to the Vanderbilt Commodores is the second home loss suffered by the Wildcats in the SEC this season.

Kentucky will have hosted four SEC teams by the time this 2022 season is concluded, but the game against the Georgia Bulldogs is clearly the toughest they will have faced.

The biggest challenge for the Kentucky Wildcats will be putting the Offensive game plan together to make this a competitive game. They do have a Quarter Back that is tipped to go in the First Round of the NFL Draft when Will Levis does declare, but injury has perhaps affected his recent play and that has been a big issue for the Wildcats.

It is very unlikely that the Kentucky Offensive Line will be able to help establish the run against the strong Georgia Defensive Line and that only makes things tougher for Will Levis. While the Quarter Back has had a decent overall season, recent outings have seen the Wildcats averaging just 125 passing yards per game and that is down to the fact that they have not had a lot of success running the ball.

Will Levis has been left in third and long spots and the Offensive Line have not been able to offer him the protection they would have wanted, while a limited Levis has not been able to scramble around in the pocket and clear the pass rush. In this game, the Bulldogs pass rush is expected to be in Levis' face through much of the game and it will be difficult for Will Levis to have consistent success throwing into the Georgia Secondary with that in mind.

Things are expected to be much different on the other side of the ball when the Georgia Bulldogs are going to be able to establish the run behind a strong Offensive Line. A deep Running Back corps means those Backs are kept fresh and Georgia should be able to rip off some big gains on the ground against the Wildcats Defensive Line that has allowed 176 yards per game to opponent's rushing Offenses in recent outings.

Stetson Bennett should have a comfortable day at Quarter Back with the team helping keep him in front of the chains, while the play-action pass should be a big part of the game plan. A strong season from the Quarter Back has been aided by the protection he has been getting from the Offensive Line and I think Stetson Bennett will have similar successes to Hendon Hooker of the Tennessee Volunteers when arguably the second best team in the SEC beat the Kentucky Wildcats by 38 points.

The Bulldogs have dominated the recent series between these SEC East rivals with twelve straight wins over Kentucky. Recent games have actually tended to be close and competitive, but injury and Offensive issues for the underdog makes this one feel like it could be a blow out and I do think the Georgia Bulldogs are playing with a real swagger at the moment, which will be hard to contain.

Two of the three road wins in the SEC this season have come by at least 26 points, while Georgia have won four of their last five games by at least 22 points. You don't want to underestimate Mark Stoops and the Kentucky Wildcats, but I think this Georgia team will look to make one more big SEC statement before a non-Conference game and the SEC Championship Game against the LSU Tigers.

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick: It was never going to be easy to play in the Big Ten East alongside the Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes and both of those teams are currently in the top four of the College Football Rankings. Those two teams will fight it out for not only the Division crown over the next two weeks, but the Penn State Nittany Lions (8-2) won't be worrying about anything other than finishing this season by winning out.

Both of their losses have come against the big two in the Division, but the Nittany Lions have largely dominated the opponents they have faced outside of Michigan and Ohio State. Strong wins over the Indiana Hoosiers and Maryland Terrapins will have given the Nittany Lions some momentum as they look for the finish that will see them earn a place in one of the bigger Bowl Games to be played in December/January.

They will complete their road schedule in the regular season when facing the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-6) who have really been struggling in the Big Ten Conference games. Despite a losing record, the Scarlet Knights were invited into a Bowl Game last season, but Greg Schiano was hoping to avoid another in his third season back at Head Coach in New Brunswick.

After back to back blow out losses, Rutgers were at least more competitive in the defeat to the Michigan State Spartans in Week 11. Ultimately the defeat will have hurt, but at least the players showed they have something left in the tank as they prepare for their final home game of the 2022 season with two wins still making them Bowl eligible.

One of the major issues Rutgers have had all season is that they have struggled Offensively, although they are coming into this one having produced their most Offensive yards in a game against a FBS team this season. Backing that up and doing the same against the Penn State Defensive unit looks a tall task for the Scarlet Knights and I do think it is this side of the ball that has made the Nittany Lions so tough to beat this season.

Running the ball against the Penn State Defensive Line is not easy and the Scarlet Knights have not shown enough in recent games to suggest they will be able to change that. It means more pressure on the shoulders of Gavin Wimsatt at Quarter Back even if he is coming off his best career performance in College Football in the defeat to Michigan State.

Gavin Wimsatt is going to find it very difficult to replicate his successes of last week with the likelihood that he will be throwing from third and long. The Penn State Secondary doesn't give a lot away and the Wimsatt will also have to deal with a fierce Penn State pass rush and I think that is either going to lead to turnovers or to stalled drives.

It is never going to be easy to have Offensive success in any game that is being played, but the Penn State Nittany Lions should be pretty comfortable with the match up in this one. They should be able to establish the run with a lot more consistency than the Scarlet Knights and it should keep the team in third and manageable through much of the contest.

The Rutgers Secondary have played pretty well in recent games, but that may also be down to the fact that teams don't feel they need to throw too much against the Scarlet Knights when running the ball is very effective. Penn State may choose to give Sean Clifford more opportunities in the passing game and he should be operating out of a clean pocket that gives him time to make some solid plays down the field.

While Penn State have put together a pretty strong set of trends at the betting window, Rutgers are 0-8-1 against the spread in their last nine games when playing a team with a winning record.

Penn State have dominated the recent series between these teams and they have covered in the last two between themselves and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and I think they can find the big plays to move clear in the second half of this one too.

Tennessee Volunteers @ South Carolina Gamecocks Pick: There are some factors that are out of the control of the Tennessee Volunteers (9-1) as to how this season will pan out, especially in relation to the final College Football PlayOff Rankings. They are still sitting outside the top four places, but the Volunteers are almost certainly going to be Ranked above the loser of the Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines game coming up in Week 13 of the regular season.

However, things will become murkier if the LSU Tigers were to beat the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game and both the TCU Horned Frogs and USC Trojans are able to win their own Conference Championships without losing another game. The permutations do begin to get a little wild, but the Volunteers are unfortunately in a position where the sole loss suffered this season is going to keep them out of the SEC Championship Game regardless of how the rest of the regular season shakes up.

The Committee deciding the PlayOff Rankings have been swayed by style points and you could see the Tennessee Volunteers were highly motivated to put their foot down against the Missouri Tigers in a big win last week. Extra motivation was easy to find with that win over the Tigers being the last home game Tennessee will play this year, but they will head out on a couple of SEC road games with the mindset of putting some huge numbers on the board.

First up is the South Carolina Gamecocks (6-4) who secured Bowl eligibility earlier in the month, but who will be looking to bounce back from the complete capitulation in a loss at the Florida Gators last week. Shane Beamer helped the Gamecocks reach seven wins in 2021, but South Carolina can only surpass that number by winning at least one of their remaining two regular season games and then the Bowl Game too.

It is a big ask of the team and especially after the performance in losing to Florida- the Gamecocks face the Clemson Tigers, the ACC Championship favourites, after the Tennessee Volunteers this week and it is going to be a big test for all involved.

There were some big expectations in Columbia when the Head Coach was able to persuade Spencer Rattler to transfer from the Oklahoma Sooners, but the Quarter Back has not really helped the Offensive unit as the Gamecocks would have hoped. In truth, Spencer Rattler looks like a player with a shattered confidence in the position and the Gamecocks Offensive Line have had a tough time running the ball to make life any easier for him.

They are not expected to get a lot of change from the Tennessee Defensive Line and that puts extra pressure on the Quarter Back, something that Rattler has not really dealt with as hoped. With little protection, playing out of third and long has been a tough assignment for Spencer Rattler and he is going to have a difficult day making plays against this Volunteers Secondary from that position.

Moving the ball will be hard for the home team, but the Tennessee Volunteers should be much more comfortable after the Offensive unit bounced back from their rough day in the office against the Georgia Bulldogs. Playing on the road is never going to be easy, but the Volunteers should be able to rip off some big gains on the ground and that should keep the team in front of the chains for much of the evening.

Being in third and manageable spots also opens things up for Hendon Hooker in the passing game and he is set to blitz through the 3000 yard mark for the season at the end of this game. Hendon Hooker has proven to be a dual-threat out of the Quarter Back position with over 400 yards on the ground and I do think he will have enough time to make his plays if the Volunteers are running the ball as effectively as anticipated.

Take nothing away from the South Carolina Secondary, who have been playing pretty well in recent games, but this Tennessee Offensive unit put up some huge numbers against a similar Defensive unit last week. They have too many options and the Volunteers are not likely to take their foot off the gas with an 'easier' game to come next week so I am expecting them to produce another statement win.

The Gamecocks were beaten by 41 points by Georgia at the Williams-Brice Stadium and 32 points last week in Florida- Tennessee will certainly feel they are playing well enough on both sides of the ball to be targeting a similar margin.

Tennessee are also 8-2-1 against the spread in their last eleven games in South Carolina, while the Gamecocks are just 4-8 against the spread as the home underdog since 2018.

USC Trojans @ UCLA Bruins Pick: A second loss for the Oregon Ducks has almost certainly ended their bid to reach the College Football PlayOff and that means the Pac-12 is down to one realistic option. The USC Trojans (9-1) have that single loss to the Utah Utes on their resume and will likely need to win out as well as the Pac-12 Championship Game if they have any real ambitions of working their way into the top four.

It says a lot about what the Committee think of the Trojans that the one loss team are currently Number 7 in the Rankings. Head Coach Lincoln Riley guided the Oklahoma Sooners into the final four three times before making the move to the Trojans at the end of the 2021 season and he will be trying to keep his players focused and not thinking about Rankings when there are up to three more games to negotiate.

Neither game left in the regular season is going to be easy for the USC Trojans, but at least they get to host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in Week 13. First the Trojans have to visit the Rose Bowl as they take on the UCLA Bruins (8-2) whose own chances of reaching the College Football PlayOff were ended in a defeat to the Arizona Wildcats.

Chip Kelly will be reminding his players that their main ambition for the season remains in front of them as they can still win the Pac-12 Championship, while they are still on course for their first ten win season since 2014. Consecutive winning seasons will also underline the work that Kelly is doing with the Bruins having begun with three losing years in succession.

Like his Oregon Ducks team, the UCLA Bruins do have a very good Offensive unit that has to be respected in this game. Quarter Back Dorian Thompson-Robinson has provided a dual-threat out of the position, while the UCLA Offensive Line have been very good up front as they have opened up some big holes to run the ball.

Many of the successes that the Bruins have will come through their ability to run the ball and they will certainly feel their Offensive Line can open up some big holes up front. There is no doubting the challenge for the USC Defensive Line to at least limit that damage, while rushing the ball also opens up the Secondary for the big play that Thompson-Robinson will look to hit.

Keeping Dorian Thompson-Robinson in front of the chains will at least help negate some of the pass rush pressure that the Trojans are able to bring, while the Quarter Back can have one of his stronger outings in recent starts against a vulnerable Secondary. However, Thompson-Robinson is going to have to be aware of the ability this USC Secondary has when it comes to turning the ball over.

Extra possessions will make all the difference in a game where both teams are going to feel they can move the ball with real confidence whenever they have it. The Trojans have a powerful Offensive Line and they will believe they are capable of dominating at the line of scrimmage, even against this pretty stout UCLA Defensive Line, and that should give Caleb Williams another chance to show off his personal Heisman credentials.

Transferring from the Oklahoma Sooners to join the former Sooners Head Coach Lincoln Riley, Caleb Williams has had a really strong season and kept the Trojans chugging towards a Conference Championship as well as a potential PlayOff place. The Quarter Back has had a very good season and he is going to have options to exploit this UCLA Secondary, while Caleb Williams from playing behind an Offensive Line that has been protecting him very well.

Much like Dorian Robinson-Thompson, Caleb Williams has looked after the ball when throwing and the Bruins have not had the same success turning the ball over as the Trojans have had. That could end up being the difference in this big, big game in the Pac-12 and the USC Trojans have to be given the narrowest of edges.

The road team have won the last two in this series, but that means the USC Trojans will be heading to the Rose Bowl with revenge on their minds having lost last year at home.

UCLA have been good playing off a loss, while the Trojans have not been as strong on the road as they have been at home, but I do think USC can turn that road trend around with a victory here. It could have a basketball feel with both teams being able to move the ball up and down the field, but I think a turnover or two falling in favour of the road team may end up being the difference in a close game.

UAB Blazers @ LSU Tigers Pick: A place in the SEC Championship Game has already been secured by the LSU Tigers (8-2) with two games still to play and this feels a tough schedule spot for the team. Close wins over the Alabama Crimson Tide and Arkansas Razorbacks have proved to be the key for the Tigers as they have won the SEC West, but they still have to show the PlayOff Committee that they deserve a spot in the final four and become the first ever two-loss team to take the step.

It involves winning out and likely needing a loss or two for some of the other leading teams chasing those places, but all the Tigers can do is focus on themselves. It would be easy to overlook the UAB Blazers (5-5) who are still chasing a win to become Bowl eligible in a season in which they have underwhelmed, but the LSU Tigers won't want to lose momentum and they can rest starters once they get into a strong lead.

Head Coach Brian Kelly has overachieved in his first season with the Tigers, but he has made it clear that winning and losing become habits and that he is still teaching his team how to win.

In recent games the LSU Tigers have really ramped up the running game and it is hard to envision this UAB Defensive Line being able to contain the home team when they look to establish the run. The Tigers have been able to produce some big numbers against teams from the SEC so this should be a considerable step down and allow LSU to move the chains efficiently.

Throwing the ball has been much tougher for the Tigers, because the Offensive Line have been much happier run blocking than in pass protection. However, this is another step downwards in terms of ability of opponent and I am not sure the Blazers are going to be generate that much of a pass rush to bother the Tigers as they look to find some momentum in their passing.

The UAB Blazers have a much more manageable test next week and you do wonder how much effort the Conference-USA team are going to want to put into this game. They are a team who have been able to run the ball pretty well in recent games, but they have not really faced any Defensive Line like the one that the Tigers will bring to the field and I do think LSU are going to clamp down up front and see if Dylan Hopkins can beat them from the Quarter Back position.

Dylan Hopkins is likely going to have to deal with more pressure from the pass rush than he has been used to, while the speed of the teams in the SEC is something that will surprise a Quarter Back who has been playing in the Conference-USA. Of course the Blazers could have more success as the Tigers give some of their fringe players a few opportunities to build experience, but this feels like a game that the SEC West Division winners should be able to dominate for large periods.

UAB have not covered in any of their last five games against SEC opponents, while they have failed to cover in any of their last four overall.

There is the feeling that the LSU Tigers will let off a little bit in the second half as they begin to concentrate on their remaining two games, but even then, the Tigers should have enough to cover this handicap mark.

MY PICKS: TCU Horned Frogs - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Michigan State Spartans - 10 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Michigan Wolverines - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Kansas State Wildcats - 7.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Georgia Bulldogs - 22.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Penn State Nittany Lions - 19 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Washington State Cougars - 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Louisville Cardinals - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Minnesota Golden Gophers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Tennessee Volunteers - 22 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Iowa State Cyclones - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

USC Trojans - 1.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

LSU Tigers - 14.5 Points @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Tennis Picks 2021- ATP Finals (November 19th)

There are only five players that are officially left in the ATP World Tour Finals and by the end of the afternoon session we will know all four Semi Finalists that will be competing for the last Singles title of 2021.

The line up for the next couple of days looks strong and there will be some top matches to watch as players look to lay down a marker for 2022. It should be a lot of fun for those tuning in and I am hoping the Tennis Picks will also round out the season in good form.

Andrey Rublev - 2.5 games v Casper Ruud: Both of these players have won one match and lost the other in the Group and that means there is a Semi Final spot on the line on Friday afternoon. The ATP Finals organisers have made the right decision to put this Group match on first on Friday with the likelihood that they will be playing in the first Semi Final on Saturday and there is plenty on the line for both Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud.

They have faced different opponents in the match they have won in Turin, but both Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud were well beaten by Novak Djokovic who looks like a man on a mission this week. There are some similarities in their performances against the World Number 1 after they both opened up with a break of the serve, but Rublev and Ruud were well beaten and will need to be much stronger in the next Round, regardless of who goes through.

Andrey Rublev will hold the mental edge having beaten Casper Ruud in all four previous matches on the Tour and three of those have been on the clay courts, which is a favoured surface of the latter. On the hard courts, Andrey Rublev has been considerably stronger than Casper Ruud and especially when it comes to facing some of the top names on the Tour and I think the Russian player can get the better of his opponent here.

The serve is going to be a key weapon for the two players, but that is an area in which Andrey Rublev can find a little more pop and it could be decisive in the conditions. In matches against the top names on the Tour on the hard courts, Casper Ruud has really not had an easy time serving or returning and this is where he could come short again.

Casper Ruud has only broken in 20% of return games played against Andrey Rublev and that is considerably lower than the 38% mark that the latter holds in their head to head. In their two meetings in 2021, Rublev's return has been much stronger than Casper Ruud's and I think he will be able to hammer his way past the Norwegian player in this winner takes all contest.

The Russian impressed in his win over Stefanos Tsitsipas and he should be good enough to cover the handicap set for this match as he moves into a big Semi Final against compatriot Daniil Medvedev.

Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Cameron Norrie: With the Semi Final scheduled less than twenty-four hours after this match begins, you have to feel that Novak Djokovic is not going to want to exert too much energy into this final Group match. He is not only through to the Semi Final, but Djokovic will know there is a big match coming up against Alexander Zverev, the player who ended his hopes of winning the Olympic Gold Medal in the summer.

That has to be the focus for Novak Djokovic, but he also will want to avoid going into the next Round of the tournament with a defeat behind him. Balancing the two is not going to be easy, but Novak Djokovic is used to playing multiple days in succession to win tournaments and he did have Thursday off to recuperate and get himself ready for the challenges he is going to face this weekend.

The final Group match is against Cameron Norrie and not Stefanos Tsitsipas who has withdrawn from the tournament. All credit has to be given to Norrie for even being an alternate here as the new British Number 1 and Cameron Norrie did win a big title in Indian Wells since the US Open, while also showing considerable improvement on all surfaces over the course of the season.

Cameron Norrie may feel his best surface is the hard courts, but he was not at his best in the first match he has played in Turin which ended in a defeat to Casper Ruud even after an incredibly fast start to the match. That has eliminated him and means the Tour Finals will have to wait at least one more year before an alternate player makes the Semi Final, but this is a good chance for Cameron Norrie to test himself against the best players in the world.

Now he has to face THE best player in the world and the numbers have taken a significant dent when he has faced top 20 and then further when facing top 10 Ranked players. That isn't a massive surprise, but Cameron Norrie has only held 74% of his service games played on the hard courts against top 10 Ranked players compared with 80% over the course of 2021 on the surface.

Where the big impact has been is on the return of serve with the break percentage dropping from 30% overall to just 10% when playing a top 10 Ranked opponent on a hard court in 2021. Facing Novak Djokovic is a huge challenge at the best of times and the World Number 1 has looked increasingly focused in Turin which may be his last big Singles tournament until February or March 2022 if the rules at the Australian Open means Djokovic will need to skip the event he has dominated in his career.

That is for another day, but this tournament also feels like a real chance for Novak Djokovic to stamp his authority over the next generation of talent that may feel they are getting closer to the top player in the world. Winning in Turin would mean an aura is around Djokovic once again entering every Grand Slam in which he competes and that kind of mental edge will not be lost on the Serb.

Novak Djokovic has produced potent serving numbers this week and he has only added to that by producing an immense amount of pressure from his return of serve. He has broken his first two opponents at least three times each and I think he will be focused from the off to make sure he is not dragged into a battle in this one and that should mean a tough evening for Cameron Norrie.

It is a big spread, but Novak Djokovic is more than covering through his exceptional returning and I will look for him to do that.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)

WTA Finals: 7-8, - 3.84 Units (30 Units Staked, - 12.80% Yield)

ATP Finals: 4-1, + 4.98 Units (10 Units Staked, + 49.80% Yield)

ATP World Tour Finals Tennis Day 5 Picks 2020 (November 19th)

The last couple of days have been a little frustrating for the Tennis Picks from the World Tour Finals as both Andrey Rublev and Alexander Zverev have had points to win and cover, but both have failed to do that.

On the other loss in the last couple of days I have to say I was very surprised to see Novak Djokovic fall away as dramatically as he did against Daniil Medvedev, but the World Number 1 will have another chance on Friday. He will have to win that match against Alexander Zverev to avoid consecutive Group Stage exits at the World Tour Finals and it should be a very interesting match in a repeat of the 2018 Final.

Dominic Thiem - 1.5 games v Andrey Rublev: Qualification for the World Tour Finals Semi Finals has already been secured for Dominic Thiem who has recorded wins over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Rafael Nadal earlier this week. It does raise the question as to how much motivation he has to win this match and twelve months ago Dominic Thiem did win his first two matches in the Group against Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer only to lose his third match.

That came against winless Matteo Berrettini who has a big game and now he has to take on winless Andrey Rublev who was knocked out of the tournament on Tuesday. The young Russian player came from a set down to lead the match in the tie-breaker, but Rublev was not able to convert his Match Point and ended up a narrow, but deserving loser in his match against Stefanos Tsitsipas.

He did play much better in that match compared with the one against Rafael Nadal, but Andrey Rublev may have begun to look forward to the off-season having put in such hard work on the indoor hard courts over the last month. Andrey Rublev had won a lot of matches, but he has admitted that he has not always felt his best when playing the top names on the Tour and it may be a case of improving the mental aspect of his level rather than the capabilities on the court.

In this tournament Andrey Rublev has been really let down by his return of serve having won less than 25% of the points played on the return so far. He has faced at least five break points in both matches, but Andrey Rublev has only created a single break point in his two matches and that could be a real problem for him in this match if Dominic Thiem is serving as he has done in London.

Dominic Thiem has held serve in 92% of games, but he will need to improve his own returning numbers if he is going to win this tournament. He has only broken once in both matches played so far, and that will give Andrey Rublev a chance in this one and especially when you think Thiem has spent a lot longer on the court than his opponent.

The two previous matches between these players on the hard courts have been competitive, although Andrey Rublev pulled away with a good looking win over Dominic Thiem in Vienna last month. That has to give Rublev some confidence, but I have a feeling he is going to go the same way as Daniil Medvedev last year who came into the World Tour Finals in strong form but was not physically ready and lost all three matches in the tournament.

I would not be surprised if there is a tie-breaker in the first set considering how these two have been returning, but my edge is with Dominic Thiem. The match could quickly disappear for the loser of the first set as both players may have other things on their mind, but my feeling is that Dominic Thiem will earn revenge for the loss to Andrey Rublev at home and find the big points going his way to win the match.

Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: Both players have earned a win over Andrey Rublev and been beaten very narrowly by Dominic Thiem, but that makes things very simple for both Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas.

The winner will be competing in the Semi Final on Saturday and the losing player will be taking some time off before wondering whether they are going to be able to begin their 2021 season in Australia as is traditional.

It should be a really good match on Thursday evening, although I am leaning towards the former World Number 1 to get the better of it and progress at the expense of the defending Champion. That status means Stefanos Tsitsipas definitely needs to be given some respect, but it also should be noted that Rafael Nadal beat him here last year, although it was not a good enough result to help the Spaniard reach the Knock Out Rounds.

Instead his sets win-loss record was the worst of the three players that finished with four points and Nadal missed out. That won't be on his mind in this one with the simple permutation making it much easier for Rafael Nadal, although Stefanos Tsitsipas is playing well enough to believe he can cause problems.

The two players are both relying heavily on their serve with Nadal holding in 95% of service games played and Tsitsipas holding in 92% of service games played. However it is Nadal who has a slight edge when it comes to the return and I am expecting that to be the difference between the players on the day.

In their previous six matches Rafael Nadal has held 90% of his service games played against Stefanos Tsitsipas and that number becomes 97% when considering their three hard court matches alone. Last year Nadal didn't even face a break point in his win over this opponent and he has to be confident his serve will hold up here on the form shown over the last few days.

The Stefanos Tsitsipas numbers have not been as strong against Rafael Nadal as the other way around with 72% of his service games being held in their three hard court matches. He has faced twenty-six break points in those matches, including nine here last year, and I do think Stefanos Tsistipas is more likely to make some mistakes or see Rafael Nadal inspired to play the tennis to get into a position to break serve.

I expect the match to have some drama with as much on the line as there is for both, but Rafael Nadal should have the edge and I think he comes through with a win and a cover.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

ATP World Tour Finals Day 8 Picks 2017- Men's Final (November 19th)

There was one really big surprise in the ATP World Tour Finals Semi Finals played on Saturday as Roger Federer was beaten by David Goffin for the first time and after a dominant first set.

I am not convinced Federer was at 100% as he seemed to be favouring his leg, but it was still a huge surprise.

How many people would have gone into the 2017 season and predicted the last match on the Tour would have been between Grigor Dimitrov and David Goffin? The winner may see this as the boost they need in their career to perhaps take the next step at the Grand Slam level, although I still think it would be a huge ask for either Dimitrov or Goffin to become a Slam Champion barring something like the injuries that have been at play this year which gave us the final eight we had in London.

That's the way it goes sometimes, but I think the likely challengers for the Slams will be much deeper going into 2018 and so it will be tough for either of the Finalists to take that step and add a Major to the CV. However, this is a big boost for the confidence and players have been able to progress with a belief in what they are doing off the court making the difference on it for them going forward.


Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v David Goffin: I backed Grigor Dimitrov to get the better of David Goffin when these two players met in the Groups earlier this week, but he is now being asked to cover an additional game on the handicap.

The match earlier this week was very one sided as Dimitrov dominated, but I think there will be more nerves at play in this one with a big prize on the line. I also don't think David Goffin can play as poorly as he did in that Group match, although there is a little similarity with the situation.

A few days ago Goffin went into the Group match having beaten an injured Rafael Nadal in three tough sets and he failed to overcome the emotion of that. Now he has come through in three sets against another legend in Roger Federer and I do wonder if he is going to have the same kind of let down and against the same opponent.

Dimitrov has enjoyed the match up with Goffin and has shown he can get his teeth into the return games which makes him the clear favourite to win this match. You just don't ever know how Dimitrov will react to the sense of expectation that will be on his shoulders and that is my biggest concern when it comes to this number as I do think he will get the yips down the stretch.

However I think Dimitrov will be able to get into a strong position with the way he has been taking the opportunities that have been presented to him. He has been winning sets by wide margins which has allowed Dimitrov to cover the games even when forced into a third set and I do think David Goffin will have some emotional let down after a big win on Saturday.

It's a tough one with the Dimitrov nerves likely to play a part, but I think he can win this one 6-3, 6-4 and take home the biggest prize of his career so far.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

ATP World Tour Finals Update: 8-6, + 2.76 Units (28 Units Staked, + 9.86% Yield)

NFL Week 11 Picks 2017 (November 16-20)

Time has been an issue this week which means the Week 12 Picks is all I am concentrating on and those are below.


Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears Pick: The Detroit Lions have been given life in the NFC North thanks to the injury sustained by Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers and they are the leading chasers after Minnesota Vikings in the Division. Only 2 games separate those two teams, but the Lions have won two games in a row to stay with the Vikings and have already secured a road win over them this season.

The Lions will also be hosting Minnesota in four days time and that has to be a factor when they head to Soldier Field to take on the lowly Chicago Bears. It looks like John Fox is very much on the hot seat in Chicago having guided the team to 3-6 so far this season and making some questionable decisions which contributed to a home loss to the Green Bay Packers last week.

However it does have to be said that the Chicago Bears have the talent to overcome Fox and thus be a very competitive team that has to be respected. They have shown that many times this season and being the home underdog has to inspire players against an opponent who may be overlooking the Bears to a Thanksgiving Day game that could decide the destination of the NFC North.

As well as Detroit have done to get back above 0.500 and continue the chase of the Minnesota Vikings, this is a team that have looked a little one dimensional Offensively and that is something the Chicago Bears will be looking to oppose. The Lions have simply not given Matthew Stafford any kind of consistent run support this season and fumbles from the Running Backs have only contributed to the problems.

It is unlikely to change against the Bears Defensive Line where the strength of the Defensive unit lies. With the Bears likely able to contain either Ameer Abdullah or Theo Riddick running the ball, it will be up to Stafford to continue playing at the high level he has produced his last two games.

Stafford is capable of making all the throws, but this week he is not facing a weak Secondary like he has carved up over the last couple of weeks. This time Stafford will be put under pressure by the Chicago pass rush and it will be a challenge for his Receiving options to get themselves open which could mean the Lions have a few drives stalling or ending with the Field Goal rather than the Touchdown.

The Chicago Defense has really not played badly at all this season, but they have spluttered Offensively which is a real problem for them. It is a learning curve for Mitchell Trubisky at Quarter Back, but one that has been made more difficult with the likes of Zach Miller injured and little Receiving help.

Unsurprisingly Trubisky has been under immense pressure up front as he goes through his reads in a rookie season and the passing yards have simply not been there. The Quarter Back will have to be wary throwing into a Secondary who have thrived on turning the ball over in the last couple of games, and Trubisky will be leaning on the likes of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen coming out of the backfield to help him in checkdown spots.

However both Howard and Cohen could have a decent day running the ball too and that will give Chicago the chance to earn an upset here. They have played well as the home underdog, and that Thanksgiving Day game for Detroit looms large on the horizon.

Chicago are 8-2 against the spread in their last ten games and face a Detroit team who have struggled when playing on the grass. The Bears have also bounced back from losses by going 9-4 against the spread in their last thirteen following a loss and the underdog has gone 4-1 against the spread in the last five in this series which all points to taking the points with the home team.


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cleveland Browns Pick: It has been a long time since the Jacksonville Jaguars were favoured to win by more than a handful of points when they are playing on the road. That is the situation for them this week and the Jaguars are trying to win for the third time in a row which would see them take control of the AFC South after Tennessee were beaten at the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night Football.

There has been something of a rivalry created this week after comments made by Jacksonville Safety Tashaun Gipson which have earned national prominence. Gipson started his career with the Cleveland Browns but signed with the Jaguars prior to the 2016 season and was speaking about how much he wants the Jaguars to destroy Cleveland this week.

It is a strange situation when you think this is not a Division rivalry and the Cleveland Browns are hardly a Play Off threat at 0-9, but Gipson might feel disrespected by something by his former team and did not pull away from the comments later in the week. Gipson also is playing in a Defensive unit that is as good as any that plays in the NFL and taking on this Cleveland team he will believe in his team mates to secure a big win on the road.

Since Marcell Dareus arrived in a trade from the Buffalo Bills, the Jaguars have strengthened their Defensive Line and become much tougher to run against. Indianapolis, Cincinnati and the Los Angeles Chargers all have struggled to establish the run and that could be an issue for Cleveland who will be looking to run the ball and give their inexperienced Quarter Back a chance to make some plays.

DeShone Kizer has had his ups and down at Quarter Back in his rookie season and it does feel like Cleveland may already be looking for their next hope to be the franchise Quarter Back for the future. If the Browns are not able to run the ball as they have been, the Jaguars are going to bring a fierce pass rush which could rattle Kizer all day long and I think the Quarter Back will find it tough to move the chains.

It wouldn't be a big surprise if Gipson is able to find himself at the end of an Interception, but his hope that Jacksonville can score 40 points here is much tougher to see.

Leonard Fournette is expected to miss this game for the Jaguars, but they have been able to run the ball pretty effectively with TJ Yeldon picking up the slack. However this may be a difficult day for the Running Backs as Cleveland's Defensive Line have been very strong up front and this spread means believing in Blake Bortles at the Quarter Back position.

With the Jaguars unlikely to rip off big gains, Bortles will be asked to make plenty of plays with his arm and he is a hard player to trust. Recent games have seen Bortles at close to his best, but he feels never too far away from a big time Interception or two and last week the Jaguars won without much help from Bortles.

Bortles has been well protected though and he has shown he can make some big plays with his arm and I do think he can have a decent day for the Jaguars. As long as he doesn't make too many mistakes, Jacksonville could move the chains effectively and I think they can cover this spread despite how motivated Cleveland will be after Gipson's comments.

I am just having difficulty to see how the Browns can score enough points to stay with the Jaguars and I do think the turnover battle will be won by the road team. Last week the Cleveland Browns continued their struggles against the betting window with another failure to cover and the Jaguars are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven road games.

Cleveland are just 3-11 against the spread in their last fourteen home games and I think the Jaguars can produce a cover of a number they don't usually have to deal with on the road. I will look for the Defensive unit to make some plays to help the Jaguars pull away in this one and cover as the favourite.


Washington Redskins @ New Orleans Saints Pick: The NFC South looks like it is going to be a very competitive Division through to the end of the regular season with three teams above 0.500 with over half the games played. At the moment it is the New Orleans Saints who lead the way with seven straight wins behind them after a 0-2 start to the season, but they are only half a game ahead of the Carolina Panthers and 2 games clear of the Atlanta Hawks in this tough Division.

The NFC East is also a tough Division, but it is one that the Philadelphia Eagles have taken control of. That means the other teams in the Division are already beginning to think of Wild Card spots and one of those are the Washington Redskins. However they are 4-5 so far this season and can't afford to drop another game to a potential rival for a Wild Card spot, although the Redskins also have a distraction to avoid.

They have been placed in the third Thanksgiving Day game against the New York Giants this season and Washington have to make sure they are not preparing for that one mentally. The fact they are facing one of the most in-form teams in the NFL should help with that although I do think the Saints have proven to be 'for real'.

I wasn't always convinced about that, but the dominant win at the Buffalo Bills last week was a hugely impressive performance. The Saints have found some real balance on the Offensive side of the ball which could be huge for them in this one as Drew Brees continues playing like one of the best Quarter Backs in the League and a dynamic pair of Running Backs have sparked the Saints on the ground.

Both Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara have made use of the touches they have been given with both also a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield which makes it so hard to defend against the New Orleans Saints. The Washington Redskins have some talent on the Defensive side of the ball which could make them dangerous with an under-rated Secondary and a fierce pass rush.

However there have been some signs against Washington which New Orleans should be able to exploit. Ingram and Kamara should be able to get the run established which will slow down the pass rush and bring up the Safeties and from there Brees should be able to find enough holes in the Secondary to help the Saints move the chains and force the Redskins into a shoot out.

The problem for Washington has to be that they have lost some big time Receivers and Kirk Cousins has seen the likes of Terrelle Pryor and Jordan Reed banged up. Cousins is also now facing one of the most improved Defensive teams in the NFL this season as the Saints have been able to get to the Quarter Back and have an improved Secondary.

Throwing the ball against New Orleans has proven to be difficult, while the weakness in stopping the run has not been exploited as the Saints have scored enough points to force teams to take to the air. Even then, Washington have not run the ball well enough to believe they can have a lot of success doing that and Cousins may be forced into a couple of mistakes which allows the Saints to pull away from them in this one.

The Redskins are 5-0 against the spread in the last five in this series, including a blow out win over the New Orleans Saints just two seasons ago. I doubt Sean Payton and Drew Brees have forgotten that and the Saints are 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games and 9-1 against the spread in their last ten against a team with a losing record.

Washington have played well on the road, but they are 1-5 against the spread in their last six overall and I like New Orleans to win and cover this spread at home.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos Pick: It has been a really disappointing year for the Cincinnati Bengals who have dropped to 3-6 and look lost in their bid to make the Play Offs. I don't think they will be keeping Marvin Lewis as Head Coach with such a poor season about to be put into the books and now they play a third consecutive road game when they travel to Mile High.

A poor season for the Cincinnati Bengals is being matched by the Denver Broncos who have simply not been able to reproduce what they did when winning the Super Bowl two seasons ago. A blow out loss in front of a national audience last week has to have embarrassed the Denver Broncos who are now 3-6 and in serious trouble of missing the Play Offs for a second season in succession.

They have since turned to Brock Osweiler after Trevor Siemian struggled at Quarter Back and the Denver Broncos are hoping Osweiler can at least keep the Offensive unit on track after a strong performance against the Patriots. It was the Defensive and Special Teams unit that let them down a week ago and Denver have to feel a better performance from those two units can see them win this game.

There have been signs on the Cincinnati Defensive Line of wear and tear over the course of the regular season and that has seen teams able to rip off a few more runs than they had been. It is important for the Denver Broncos who will look to CJ Anderson to put the team in strong down and distance and Anderson could have a decent day in the office with the Broncos Offensive Line happy when it comes to run blocking.

It is possible that will slow down the Cincinnati pass rush which has been effective and give Osweiler the chance to put some play-action passes down the field to the likes of Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas. He was hitting those two well last week and Denver could have some success moving the chains this week, although it won't be consistent by any stretch of the imagination.

However it may be more consistent than what the Cincinnati Bengals are able to bring to the field in a season in which one Offensive Co-Ordinator has already been fired. The Bengals have really struggled with one of the poorer Offensive Lines in the NFL and it goes to show how important the line of scrimmage can be in this sport.

There are still some strong skill players on the Offensive side of the ball, but Cincinnati have not been able to provide them the space to excel. The running game has been almost non-existent at times and now they face a Denver Defensive Line who have something to prove after the last few games.

With the struggles on the Offensive Line, it is hard to see how Joe Mixon having a really big game on the ground and that keeps the pressure on Andy Dalton at Quarter Back. Time has been limited for Dalton in the pocket and now he has the additional stress of knowing AJ Green is likely to be blanketed by a strong Secondary who are much tougher to throw upon than they have shown.

Dalton has been led into some mistakes and those could be critical in a game where the two Offensive units on display are merely asked not to make mistakes. Unfortunately that is the case for both teams but Osweiler has been a little more careful with the ball and I think he can put Denver in a position to win this game.

The Broncos have won six of their last seven against Cincinnati including in each of the last two seasons. This is the chance to make amends for a really bad performance against the New England Patriots when Special Teams and poor Defense let them down and I expect a much better all around effort from the Denver Broncos which can help them win this game and cover the number.

MY PICKS: Chicago Bears + 3 Points @ 2.00 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars - 7 Points @ 1.86 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 BoyleSports (2 Units)