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Showing posts with label May 27th. Show all posts
Showing posts with label May 27th. Show all posts

Tuesday, 27 May 2025

French Open Day 3 Tennis Picks 2025 (Tuesday 27th May)

The first two days at the French Open could not have gone any worse.

The opening two Picks were just poor, but Monday was much more frustrating and could easily have landed 2-1 on another day, rather than the 0-3 humbling faced.

Elena Rybakina was two games away from completing a routine First Round win, but managed to lose serve and ultimately become embroiled in a real battle.

The Iga Swiatek win was close, but she started slowly and dropping serve right at the beginning of the second set made it tough.

And then we come to Naomi Osaka who was two points away from opening up a 3-0 lead in the final set... To compound matters, it was a tale of two shots on the same line that swung the match against the former World Number 1 when Osaka missed to drop serve and, after the changeover, Paula Badosa hit the back end of the line at almost the exact same point to save Break Point.

It is early, but this is a difficult opening and that cannot be ignored.

A bit of fortune will help, but just narrowing the parameters a little may just be the key to moving this tournament back towards a positive position in the first week in the French capital.


Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 games v Cameron Norrie: Three years ago, Cameron Norrie reached the Semi Final at Wimbledon and two months later he was playing at a career high World Ranking of Number 8.

Things have changed considerably for the British player in May 2025 with his World Ranking dipping out of the top 80 and Cameron Norrie has struggled for consistency. However, he is still only 29 years old and Norrie will enter the French Open with a lot more confidence having reached the Geneva Semi Final last week and only being beaten by Novak Djokovic in a deciding set.

He was forced to join the Qualifying Rounds in Barcelona and Rome, while also coming through the Qualifiers in Geneva.

Cameron Norrie should take confidence from that run last week and he has long been a solid, if unspectacular clay court player. Prior to his First Round exit last year, Norrie had reached the Third Round at the French Open in three straight seasons, but he may have wished for an 'easier' First Round opponent.

The World Number 11 stands in the way and Daniil Medvedev has beaten Cameron Norrie in all four previous matches on the Tour, including in Rome earlier this month. The numbers have been heavily weighted in favour of Medvedev in those previous matches and it is going to take a considerable effort from Cameron Norrie to turn that form around.

There was a time when Daniil Medvedev would be considered a vulnerable Seed in the early Rounds of clay court tournaments, but he has been much more comfortable on the surface in recent years. He has reached the Fourth Round in three of the last four years at the French Open and the Medvedev wins on the red dirt in 2025 have all been against opponents Ranked outside of the top 20.

His return has been particularly strong in those matches and the Daniil Medvedev win over Cameron Norrie in Rome can be franked with another solid victory over the British player here.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

French Open Update: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Sunday, 26 May 2024

French Open Day 2 Tennis Picks 2024 (Monday 27th May)

You could hear the audible gasp when Rafael Nadal's name was placed next to Alexander Zverev as the French Open draw was being made on Thursday.

The second Grand Slam of the season will begin on Sunday, but all of the focus in the lead up was surrounding Nadal and whether the fourteen time Champion would be ready to compete.

For some time it has felt like this would be the last time the Spaniard would compete at the French Open and there is a real belief that Rafael Nadal may choose to end his career after the Olympics (which are also played on these courts).

This could not have been a tougher draw for Rafael Nadal, who has had some mixed results on the clay courts, but if he can find a way to get through the First Round, maybe we will have the fairytale ending that Nadal, his family and fans would all be hoping for.


It has been a difficult time for a number of the big names in Men's Tennis and this may mean we are going to have a much more open tournament than expected.

Five players are set as single digits when it comes to the outright market, but there have to be questions about Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, who have both been dealing with injuries. Novak Djokovic is the defending Champion, but is clearly not so happy with his form that he has made a rare decision to play in the week prior to the Grand Slam beginning.

Alexander Zverev won in Rome and may take a huge amount of stopping if he was to beat Rafa Nadal in the First Round, while both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud are very solid clay courters who have won decent titles on the surface.


The Women's event looks a bit more straight-forward- if Iga Swiatek is anywhere near her best, she wins a third straight French Open title and the fourth in five years. She has won the big events in Madrid and Rome and Swiatek will be very tough to beat on these courts, although the World Number 1 does have a couple of potential dangerous floaters that will need to be seen off between now and June 8th.

It is no surprise that Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina come next in the market, but the top Seed is the clear favourite here.


There has been a break in the Tennis Picks and that was largely down to a very disappointing opening three months with some bad fortune attached to some poor selections.

The Australian Open was particularly disappointing so it does mean taking a step back to more two forward is the best approach and one that makes sense in what is a very long season.

After this tournament, the next focus will be on Wimbledon which begins in early July and the hope is to put two very solid Grand Slam returns together.


The First Round at the French Open is split over three days and the uncertainty about when matches are going to be played means some of the threads may be longer than others until me move into the Second Round on Wednesday.

In Melbourne it was a game in which the Picks were trailing right from the off, so there is a hope and expectation to make a stronger start in Paris and lay a solid foundation for a good tournament.


Alexander Zverev - 1.5 sets v Rafael Nadal: Despite the hopes of the broadcasters, Rafael Nadal has gotten his wish of having this First Round match played in the day session at Roland Garros on Monday.

It is the match of the Round, but Nadal is well aware that his best chance of upsetting Alexander Zverev is playing in the hot part of the day when his spins can really be ramped up.

Using the word 'upset' in association with Rafael Nadal at the French Open would usually have been in relation to his opponent having a chance of beating the 14 time Champion in Paris. The Spaniard has only lost three times at this tournament and by only two men, but Nadal looks to have settled on this being his last year on the Tour and he has simply not looked the same level of player as he once was.

He played pretty well in Madrid, but Nadal has suffered early losses in Barcelona and Rome and his numbers have simply backed up the fact that he is not on the level he could once produce.

In saying all that, it is still Rafael Nadal playing on the red dirt at the French Open and ruling him out completely would be a mistake.

However, the draw has been pretty unkind as he prepares to face the Rome Champion Alexander Zverev who is also one of the favourites to life the title here. Prior to the title run in the Italian Capital, Zverev had produced some mixed results on the clay courts, while there will be painful memories of the last time he faced Rafael Nadal on this court when he suffered a serious injury that ruled him out for multiple months.

The German has reached the Semi Final at Roland Garros in each of the last three years and so should be pretty comfortable on the surface too. The serve will be a key weapon for Alexander Zverev and the fact he has beaten Nadal on a clay court before should also help as he looks to get the better of the faded Champion.

Pressure can do funny things and Zverev will know there is a sense of expectation around him for this match, but he has enough experience to handle things. Rafael Nadal is expected to be competitive at moments, but the lack of matches and the quality of Alexander Zverev should see the higher Seed move through in three or four sets.


Cameron Norrie - 1.5 sets v Pavel Kotov: There is not expected to be a lot of British interest at the French Open when we reach the business end of this tournament, but one of the better hopes may be Cameron Norrie.

It has been a tough year for the left-hander who has slipped out of the top 32 in the World Rankings, which means the likelihood of having tougher opening Round draws at the Grand Slam events. His clay court season has been mixed since April, but Norrie has seen the problems thaat come with a dropped World Ranking as he has suffered early losses to the likes of Casper Ruud and Stefanos Tsitsipas, two very capable clay courters who are amongst the favourites at the second Grand Slam of the season.

On paper this looks a tough, but winnable First Round match for the British player as he prepares to face Pavel Kotov.

The Russian has reached a new career high World Ranking earlier this month, and he has had some decent results on the clay courts in the build to the French Open. The results have been more mixed when only accounting for matches against players Ranked in the top 100, while Kotov has lost four of the five matches played against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts.

It feels like Cameron Norrie will have the edge when it comes down to the serve and that may ultimately give him the opportunity to win this one. He has played well when facing opponents outside of the top 20 of the World Rankings, and Cameron Norrie may just have the majority of the Break Point opportunities through the course of this match.

Cameron Norrie dominated the match when facing Pavel Kotov on the clay courts of Barcelona in April 2023, but the latter should show his improvements made over the last thirteen months. However, Norrie may still be the superior player and can show that by moving through to the Second Round behind a three or four set win.


Marketa Vondrousova - 5.5 games v Rebeka Masarova: She reached the Final at Roland Garros in 2019 and Marketa Vondrousova will be the defending Wimbledon Champion when the tournament gets underway in South West London in July.

However, the World Number 6 can flatter to deceive at times and her record at the French Open since losing to Ashleigh Barty in the 2019 Final has been pretty poor.

The left-hander will get her tournament underway on Monday and this does look a good chance to open with a solid win when facing Rebeka Masarova.

The Spaniard has slipped down the World Rankings and is barely clinging onto a top 100 Ranking these days, while her tournaments in Madrid and Rome ended relatively quickly. In the main, Masarova has decided to rebuild by dropping down a level and her clay court numbers will not really give Marketa Vondrousova too much to worry about.

Much more will depend on what kind of mood Vondrousova is in herself having had a pretty quiet clay court season outside of a good run in Stuttgart. The serve can be a vulnerable weapon at times and that will offer Rebeka Masarova some encouragement, although the Czech player should be good enough on the returning side of her tennis to keep the lower Ranked player under some pressure.

In the main, Marketa Vondrousova has been too good for the players Ranked outside of the top 50 that she has faced on the clay courts. She had won twelve of those matches in a row before losing to Anhelina Kalinina last week in Strasbourg and the feeling is that the former Finalist will begin a new run on Monday with a pretty comfortable win.

The only previous match between these two players was played on a hard court in 2023 and Masarova won just two games on that day. On the clay courts you would have to expect the Spaniard to be more competitive than that, but Marketa Vondrousova should be able to win one set by a wide enough margin to set her on her way to a win and cover. 

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.57 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova - 5.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Saturday, 27 May 2023

Boxing Picks 2023- Mauricio Wood vs Leigh Wood II (May 27th)

Robbery...

As a Boxing fan, you will have heard that word used for any result that is not one that is widely accepted, although I think this era it is part of a problem about anything that may happen.

Win today and you are spoken about amongst the very best fighters in history, but lose and some are ready to throw you on a scrapheap.

It has long been seen as a positive to hold onto your '0' as long as possible and that has actually taken away from the sport with fighters not willing to take the risky fights that really do make a legacy.

Some of that has changed recently, but this social media age is not a good one for athletes who are looking to make their mark at the highest level- while the money is bigger, I think this is also an era where people look to build someone up so they can a lot of enjoyment out of tearing them down.

Personally I hate all that- but you see it in all sports and in Boxing it is no different.

But back to that word, 'robbery'- this is what you would have heard after Vasyl Lomachenko came up short in his bid to win the Undisputed Lightweight Titles from Devin Haney.

Cards on the table- I had Lomachenko doing just enough to win the fight, but also acknowledged that the judges might not have liked what I did in what were some very close Rounds. When I am sitting and scoring a fight without distraction, I am not a fan of the 10-10 score so will always pick one or the other, but truly felt the first seven Rounds were razor thin and I think that proved to be the case with the judges favouring the body work of Haney over the sharper shooting of Lomachenko.

Looking back at the official cards, two of the judges had Devin Haney up 5-2 while the third card had the Champion leading 4-3... Now I had Lomachenko up 4-3 at that point, but, again, I do think at least two of those Rounds could have gone the other way which would have meant Haney 5-2 or at worst 4-3 so there really was not a lot in those scores.

Ultimately there will have been some frustration with Dave Moretti's card (ironically he was the one who had Haney up just 4-3 after Seven Rounds) and especially the Tenth Round, which was one of two really big Rounds for Lomachenko, but one Moretti somehow handed to Haney.

That contributed to the 116-112 score, but the two 115-113 scores underlined what had been a close fight and you cannot ignore the fact that Lomachenko admitted he took the Twelfth Round off when winning that would have meant a Majority Draw and made it impossible for Devin Haney to ignore the rematch.

Also tallying up the fight with Rounds awarded to the fighter who was given the nod on at least two of the three judges' cards would have given Devin Haney a 7-5 edge and, even though I thought Lomachenko did enough, I think you can make a case for a close win for the Champion.


But was it a fight I considered a 'robbery'... No.

I thought Vasyl Lomachenko won, but it was tight and it is not like we saw an 118-110 card handed in like when Adelaide Byrd gave in her card for the Canelo-GGG first fight, which was an absolute horrific 'home cooking' call.

This felt more like when Bernard Hopkins dropped tight Decisions to Jermain Taylor in the rematch and Joe Calzaghe- as a big Hopkins fan I thought he won both of those fights, but they were tight calls, but I don't remember anyone really believing he had been 'robbed', but had been unfortunate to be on the wrong side of the cards and perhaps had not done enough.


In Boxing we have seen so many poorer decisions than the one last week... Just two weeks ago Tony Weeks stopping a fight he should never have was worse than the call last week, but in the instant gratification era we seem to be involved in 'all or nothing' debates more than ever.

That happens in all sports and I think the word debate is not quite correct... More often people just want to talk to those that agree with their point of view than have it challenged and I think it leads to this big statements of 'robberies' and 'greatest of all time' being thrown around more than they would have been.


I had a pretty miserable week for the Boxing Picks and it means the hard work to get this year back on track has been wasted.

That is frustrating, but as a fan of the sport, this has been a week that I have enjoyed with the anticipation of what is to come.

For so long I have been waiting to hear an Undisputed Welterweight fight between Errol Spence Jr and Terence Crawford would be announced, but, like many others, I have begun to lose faith that we would ever see it before it is past it's sell by date.

To my surprise, the fight has been announced for July 29th, just a few days after Stephen Fulton and Naoya Inoue are set to meet in Japan in a very big fight too.

Boxing has not always delivered what the fans have wanted, but fights like these are certainly hitting the mark and now we just have to wait and see if the Heavyweights are going to do their part in the ring rather than talking about the big fights.



Mauricio Lara vs Leigh Wood II

A little over three months have passed since Mauricio Lara detonated a huge left hand that put Leigh Wood down hard and ultimately took his WBA World Title away in the dying embers of the Seventh Round.

Looking back on the fight, there were some hard moments for both through the first Six Rounds, but it did look like Leigh Wood had gotten control at the end of the first half of the fight and Mauricio Lara looked to be tiring.

However, Lara has proven he has power that can carry and there has been some controversy attached to the rematch with the Mexican being told by the Board that he cannot try and force himself to the Featherweight limit of 126 pounds as it would have been too dangerous.

Amazingly the Mexican has come in close to the Super Featherweight limit of 130 pounds which means the World Title has been dropped on the scale and only Leigh Wood can fight for it.

Some have suggested that Wood's team should have perhaps pulled him out of the rematch and simply fought for a vacant World Title in the weeks ahead and I think they have a point. He is fighting a dangerous opponent who is effectively operating at a Division higher than the bout should have been, while the British fighter was dropped hard and Stopped by the same opponent when they were both cutting to the Featherweight limit.

Ultimately Leigh Wood looks like he wants to take the fight and he has to be given a lot of credit for staying professional and making sure the World Title is one he can reclaim.

However, I do think this becomes a really dangerous fight and one that could end up finishing earlier than the original bout in February.

Mauricio Lara might have a bit more weight on him than he would have done if defending his World Title, but I still think he will have found it tough to push down towards 126 pounds and he was only told late in fight week to not try and do that. So while he is heavier, I do think some of the energy will have been drained and it feels like the now former World Champion is going to need to get this fight done early.

Ben Davison and Leigh Wood have to expect a fast start and he will need to be switched on from the off if the upset is going to be earned and the Nottingham man is going to become a two time World Champion. Leigh Wood is going to know that Lara has the power to switch off the lights throughout the 36 minutes he will have to spend with him in the ring and so it is going to be key to not overextend as I felt Wood did when in control three months ago.

The game plan won't be much different and I do think Mauricio Lara is going to be at his most dangerous early, but Wood showed that the body work can pay off if he can just steer clear of hooking with the hooker. I do think he is capable, but my enthusiasm for picking the upset has been lessened after the weigh in with Lara potentially being much stronger than he would have been if boiling down to the Featherweight limit.

Leigh Wood has to just take his time and box as he did for Six Rounds and two and a half minutes in February- he had hurt Lara to the body and the Mexican looked to be tiring when the big left hook landed, but this time Wood will be looking to be more patient.

For those who want to back 'repeat', I do think Mauricio Lara will likely get this done a bit earlier than last time and inside the first half of the fight as he looks to empty the tank.

However, I do think Leigh Wood could really start laying down some big punches if he can drag Lara into the second half of the contest and Wood has shown his power remains even after going deep into a bout. He Stopped Michel Conlan famously in the last Round and has done the same to Reece Mould (Ninth Round) and Can Xu (Twelfth Round) and I think Wood could find a way to get this done too at what is a very big price.

He might not take the same risks as he did to finish off Can Xu and Wood was trailing Conlan when putting him down in the Eleventh and ultimately Stopping him a Round later. This time Leigh Wood will feel he is ahead on the cards if he gets to the Championship Rounds and staying out of the Mauricio Lara way might be the best plan at that point, but I think he will want to really put on a show and I do think Leigh Wood is someone who likes to finish his opponents where he can.

All of the weigh in drama has just cooled some of the excitement for the upset as I have said, but I do think Leigh Wood might be able to take Mauricio Lara into deep waters and then drown him for a stunning win to regain his World Title.

I do think there have to be some serious questions about whether this bout should go ahead after all of the weight issues, but Leigh Wood could make them secondary... However, I do think this fight has the potential to have a terrible look for Boxing if Mauricio Lara bulldozes through Wood and hurts him badly.


There are a couple of interesting bouts on the undercard, but nothing of note when it comes to additional selections.

I think Jack Catterall will likely need the cards to beat Darragh Foley after a long lay-off, while Terri Harper is expected to win a hastily arranged fight having had her World Title defence pulled from the card on the day of the event last week.

Younger talent under the Matchroom promotional banner are also going to be featured including Campbell Hatton, but the attention will mainly be on the headline fight which should be fascinating.



Lawrence Okolie vs Chris Billam-Smith

There is a lot of respect between World Champion Lawrence Okolie and Chris Billam-Smith, which is not always the case when former gym partners end up facing off in the ring.

A Cruiserweight World Title is on the line and you have to give Lawrence Okolie credit for returning to the ring as soon as he has following a win over David Light in March. Promotional issues meant The Sauce had been left on the sidelines for too long, but he is clearly looking to make up for lost time and it did not take much for Lawrence Okolie to put his hand up when new promoter Ben Shalom had booked Chris Billam-Smith for a World Title shot at home.

Being more active and finishing his goals at Cruiserweight before moving up to Heavyweight is the plan for Lawrence Okolie and I think that has motivated him to get back into the ring for the second time in three months, which is unheard of from Champions in this era.

However, I also think he knows exactly what to expect from Chris Billam-Smith and I do think Lawrence Okolie is clearly very comfortable with the match up.

Shane McGuigan and Billam-Smith are going to have a good idea what to expect, but my problem with the Challenger is that he seems to be far too open when trying to land his own shots.

Of course you have to credit for Chris Billam-Smith to want to force the issue, but he was badly hurt in his last fight against Armend Xhoxhaj and Lawrence Okolie is certainly someone who has arguably the best power in the Division.

Sometimes Lawrence Okolie fights can be poor to watch with his jab and grab style, but before the win over David Light, the Champion had needed a Twelve Round Decision over Michael Cieslak and had previously won seven in a row inside the distance.

Working with SugarHill should mean Lawrence Okolie wants to be more aggressive with his punches and I think he was looking better against Light once getting rid of some of the ring rust.

I expect another improvement from the Champion and I do think he will know what to expect from Chris Billam-Smith.

While some think it could lead to a bit of an ugly contest, Billam-Smith is going to take chances as he is likely knows that is the best way for him to cause the upset rather than allowing Lawrence Okolie to jab and grab to another Decision.

Chris Billam-Smith has shown he is ready to take one to give one, and he showed enough resiliency to go the distance with Richard Riakporhe earlier in their careers. However, I think Lawrence Okolie is a bigger hitter than Riakporhe when the opponent comes onto him like Chris Billam-Smith is likely to do and my feeling is that this is going to be a firefight between two who know each other very well and ultimately it is the Champion who might hit too hard for the home fighter.

The feeling is that Lawrence Okolie wants to impress and I think he can remove Chris Billam-Smith before halfway in this one.


With the event being hosted in a Football Stadium, it is no surprise that we look to have a stronger looking undercard in Bournemouth than the card in Manchester.

Lewis Edmondson is favoured to score a Stoppage in his Six Rounder with Petar Nosic, but Ben Whittaker had to go the distance with the latter. That remains the sole loss Nosic has suffered and I think Edmondson may need the cards to maintain his unbeaten record.

The likes of Tommy Welch and Mace Ruegg should both also remain unbeaten, while the English Light Middleweight Title fight between Lee Cutler and Stanley Stannard is an interesting one to see where both stand before potentially moving onto British Title level.

However, the chief support to the main event looks a cracker when Sam Eggington and Joe Pigford meet one another.

At 29 years old Sam Eggington has a lot of miles on the clock and you have to believe this is the last real run he can have in his career- a win will open up some doors, but he has to take the unbeaten record from Joe Pigford who has shown plenty of punching power, although this is a step up in level compared with previous opponents.

He is a year older than his opponent, but Joe Pigford has not had nearly the same amount of gruelling bouts as Sam Eggington. Twenty wins have been placed on the record and nineteen of those have been in Stoppages, but Eggington is going to be the toughest challenge faced by Joe Pigford and clearly has big ambitions of his own.

The unbeaten has only been past Six Rounds once and you do have to wonder how Joe Pigford will react if Sam Eggington is still in there firing back shots after halfway of this fight.

It is almost certainly the case that Sam Eggington will have taken some big shots already by that point with his approach, but I think Pigford is also going to be tested and this looks a fight that will eventually see one of the two broken down and Stopped.

You do have to respect the fact that Sam Eggington has only ever been Stopped twice in the eight losses he has suffered, but he won't be hard to find in any fight he is in and Joe Pigford is confident his power will tell. At the same time, Eggington may feel taking Pigford into the later Rounds will give him a big edge and I think it will be a big surprise if this fight hits the final bell.

The amount of time Joe Pigford has spent out of the ring is a concern, so he could take a couple of Rounds to warm up and backing one of the fighters to secure a second half Stoppage looks to be the play.



Luis Alberto Lopez vs Michael Conlan

The Featherweight Division has really been heating up over the last couple of years and over the next eighteen months I would expect to see some Unifications and potentially a move towards finding an Undisputed Champion at 126 pounds.

Luis Alberto Lopez is on the road again this weekend and he is back in Great Britain having won the IBF Featherweight World Title from Josh Warrington.

This time he faces Michael Conlan in another hostile environment and it is going to be interesting to see what the Northern Irishman has learned from his late loss to Leigh Wood when leading on the cards.

Winning on Saturday will put Conlan in a position to earn the rematch with Wood with two belts on the line if the latter is able to win in Manchester around an hour after this World Title fight in Belfast is concluded. Michael Conlan has won a couple of fights since the defeat to Leigh Wood in a Fight of the Year contender, but this is another big test for him to show that he has really exorcised any demons that remained after a tough defeat.

The Champion won his World Title in a Majority Decision against Josh Warrington, although I think the win was by a clearer margin than the judges thought on the day. A lot of the blame has to be given to Warrington who started very slowly, but I think Michael Conlan can find enough successes early to put some Rounds in the bank.

He will have to be aware of the awkwardness of Luis Alberto Lopez, but I do think Michael Conlan is a quality Boxer and can do enough to rack up the points. He has more pop than some believe, which is something that Lopez will have to be aware of, and I think Conlan can use the energy of the home crowd to come through a coupe of rough moments and win a first World Title.

I think that will most likely come on the cards, if it does indeed come, but just backing Michael Conlan to find the win might be the best approach.


There is a decent undercard with some local talent involved, but the chief support on this card is another Featherweight clash on a Saturday filled with fights from this Division. While two British fighters are looking to become World Champions in the Division, Nick Ball will be looking to keep up the momentum which has him surging up the World Rankings.

Nick Ball already believes he is ready to take on the World Champions and he will have a chance to make a statement before the IBF World Title is on the line when taking on unbeaten South African Ludumo Lamati.

This is a big opportunity for Lamati, but he will be fighting outside his home nation for only the second time.

He is the taller man, like many who take on Nick Ball in this Division, but Ludumo Lamati will have to be wary of the power that the British fighter has shown.

You can't discount the motivation the South African will have knowing he will be in line for a World Title shot if he can upset Nick Ball, but I think the latter is arriving in Belfast to make a statement and could show off the punching power early in this fight.

MY PICKS: Leigh Wood to Win Between 7-12 @ 17.00 William Hill (1 Unit)
Lawrence Okolie to Win Between 1-6 @ 5.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Lewis Edmondson to Win By Decision/Technical Decision @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Sam Eggington-Joe Pigford to End Between 7-12 @ 2.87 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Michael Conlan to Win @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Nick Ball to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.87 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 26-45, - 12.22 Units (133 Units Staked, - 9.02% Yield)

Friday, 27 May 2022

French Open Tennis Day 6 Picks 2022 (May 27th)

After a slow start, it looked like the momentum was behind the Tennis Picks on Day 5.

However, late illness issues saw Dan Evans and Simona Halep blow winning positions and both were knocked out of the French Open, while Andrey Rublev missed Match Points that would have secured a cover and he followed a number of other players to beat his opponent one game too late for my selection.

At least I avoided a big losing day and that means the tournament remains in a strong position for the Tennis Picks, but I do also expect more. The Third Round begins on Friday and I have a number of selections that can be read below.


Novak Djokovic - 9.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: It looked like the Second Round was following the First Round in being a routine day in the office for Novak Djokovic, but windy conditions and a big hitting lefty forced him into a bit of a battle in the third set. Ultimately it did not matter too much for the World Number 1 and he has progressed to the Third Round without dropping a set and with better, more appealing conditions to come.

He is going into this Third Round match as another big favourite, which is not a surprise, and I do think Novak Djokovic is most likely going to progress to the second week with another straight sets victory behind him.

The big question here is whether Novak Djokovic can do enough to cover a big spread against a decent clay courter in Aljaz Bedene. However, the Slovenian has not had a lot of tennis in the build to the French Open as he makes a return from an injury and his results prior to the tournament had not been anything to write home about.

In saying that, two wins in the main draw as the underdog will have done Aljaz Bedene the world of good, even if he is well aware that his is a huge step up in level compared with wins over Christoper O'Connell and Pablo Cuevas. They were still solid wins, especially the Second Round win over Cuevas when Aljaz Bedene had to dig deep, but that may not be enough to compete with someone like Novak Djokovic.

At his very best, Aljaz Bedene does have a serve that can be effective on the clay courts, and that is going to be key for his chances in this one. The best he can do is hope to serve well and see if that can build any kind of pressure on Novak Djokovic, no matter how tall a task it is.

In the lead to the French Open, Aljaz Bedene was only holding 65% of the service games played and that has to be a concern against someone who can return as well as Novak Djokovic.

The previous three meetings have all been won well by Djokovic, although they have not met since the Rome Masters in 2017, while the World Number 1 holds a comfortable win over Aljaze Bedene right here in Paris. Again, that was some time ago, but Novak Djokovic is still playing at a high level and Bedene may not be quite the player he once was and it could lead to a relatively serene progress through to the Fourth Round for Djokovic.

Novak Djokovic has broken the Aljaz Bedene serve in 43% of return games played against him in their two previous clay court matches and I think the latter may have slipped a little bit since then. It is a big mark for a Third Round match, but I do think he can win this one with a similar score to the one produced when these two met in Paris in 2016.


Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 sets v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: One of the stronger clay court campaigns has been put together by Grigor Dimitrov and he is clearly playing with a lot of confidence at the moment. That has been backed up by the impressive wins over Marcos Giron and Borna Coric in the first couple of Rounds here at the French Open.

While he was a favourite to win both matches, Grigor Dimitrov has made both opponents look very ordinary in those victories and that has impressed the most. He played really well in the lead into the tournament and clearly is operating at a high level that may be difficult for Diego Sebastian Schwartzman to deal with.

Of course the diminutive Argentine is very comfortable on the clay courts, but there may be one or two signs that Diego Sebastian Schwartzman is slowing down. The clay court numbers produced in 2022 have been down on the previous year, while the European clay court swing has really seen some inconsistent results from Schwartzman.

The serve has always been something of a vulnerability, but Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has seen his hold percentage drop from 73% last season to 68% this season and at this level that is a big difference. It has dropped further to 66% during the last two months on the European clay courts and Schwartzman has had some disappointing losses to take in that time.

To underline the struggles, Diego Sebastian Schwartzman surprisingly dropped a set in the First Round and then had to fight back from 0-2 down to beat Jaume Munar in the Second Round. Beating the Spaniard from behind is actually a pretty good recovery, but it may have taken something out of the legs and that is an issue.

Making matters worse, Diego Sebastian Schwartzman is facing an opponent who has beaten him three times in a row since their first meeting in Istanbul. That was memorable for the mental collapse for Grigor Dimitrov who felt everything was going against him, but the Bulgarian has been the better player when they have met since then.

It includes a very comfortable win at the Madrid Masters earlier this month when Grigor Dimitrov gave up just three games in the win.

He has enjoyed facing the Diego Sebastian Schwartzman serve and has broken in 43% of return games played in their four previous meetings. That jumps to 52% when considering their two previous clay court matches and Grigor Dimitrov will feel his own serve is working well enough to keep Schwartzman contained in this match.

I do think Grigor Dimitrov is playing at a level that may be tough for Diego Sebastian Schwartzman to deal with, even on a clay court, and my feeling is that the former will get through in three or four sets.


Felix Auger-Aliassime - 5.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: Working with Uncle Toni should stand Felix Auger-Aliassime in good stead in general, but especially on the clay courts where Toni Nadal had worked really well with his nephew Rafael Nadal. No one is going to confuse the young Canadian with Nadal, but Felix Auger-Aliassime has had improved results on the red dirt in 2022 and I do think he can make the second week at the French Open.

He reached the Quarter Final at both the Madrid and Rome Masters and it took some of the very best clay courters to end Auger-Aliassime's run at both events. However, the confidence from putting the wins together will have really helped Felix Auger-Aliassime and especially in the First Round here where he had to recover from two sets down.

Things were much more comfortable in the Second Round and I do think Auger-Aliassime can build on the run against someone who is decent, but nothing special on the clay courts.

Filip Krajinovic has impressed at the French Open and has only dropped a single set, while clay court wins over David Goffin and Andrey Rublev have to be respected. His numbers are pretty average in all honesty though and before this tournament he had held 76% of service games played, but only broken in 17% of return games, which makes this match a real challenge for him.

The edge looks to be with Felix Auger-Aliassime on the return of serve and I think that will be key to the outcome of the match.

The Canadian also has the mental edge having won both matches against Filip Krajinovic last year, including one on the clay courts. That win in Rome will have done a lot for Felix Auger-Aliassime as he had been beaten really comfortably at the same event by Filip Krajinovic in 2020, albeit at a Rome tournament played in the Autumn rather than the Spring.

In the two matches in 2021, Felix Auger-Aliassime dominated behind serve and return and I think the improved clay courter can back that up with another win over Filip Krajinovic. This is a pretty wide spread for a Third Round match, but it is one that I think Felix Auger-Aliassime can cover in the form he has displayed over the last two months as he looks to reach the second week at his fourth Slam in a row and for the first time in Paris.


Alexander Zverev - 7.5 games v Brandon Nakashima: A poor start to the Second Round match put Alexander Zverev in a very tough position and he had to hold off Sebastian Baez in the final set on his road to recovery. Saving a Match Point in the Second Round is not an ideal situation to be in, but Alexander Zverev managed to hold on and all that matters right now is that he is scheduled to play in the Third Round.

There will be some questions as to the performance of the first two sets, but it may also prove to be a turning point in his career. While he is in the very tough top half of the draw, Alexander Zverev will have shown he has the heart to win a Grand Slam title and the match up in the Third Round looks to be one that should be more comfortable.

That is not being disrespectful to Brandon Nakashima, who has a lot of potential as part of the next generation of male players representing the United States, but there is also no doubt that his better performances will currently be on the faster surfaces. You have to credit Brandon Nakashima for taking advantage of what looked to be a kind draw in the first two Rounds, although he did need the full five sets in the First Round.

However, the American had only held 65% of his service games played on the clay courts before this tournament began and I do think he will be put under pressure by Alexander Zverev if the latter brings in the form that he produced in the final three sets a couple of days ago. Those struggles were in clear evidence in the two top 20 Ranked opponents Brandon Nakashima has played in the build to the French Open.

Brandon Nakashima was well beaten by both Casper Ruud and Grigor Dimitrov and he was able to hold just 50% of his service games played in those two matches. The return was also much more difficult against Ruud and Dimitrov with 17% of return games ending in a break, and Nakashima saw his own serve broken at least four times in each match.

Over the best of five set format, that gap between Brandon Nakashima and the top clay court players should become clearer and I do think Alexander Zverev is going to be much more focused out of the scare in the Second Round.

He also has experienced the Brandon Nakashima game with Alexander Zverev beating him in four sets at the US Open a couple of years ago. I have no doubt that Brandon Nakashima is a better player for the experience in that time, but that was also on a court he would favour and the clay court edge for Zverev is very difficult to ignore.

On that day, Alexander Zverev managed to break the Brandon Nakashima serve five times and I think the German can win this one in much more routine fashion than he produced a couple of days ago against a pretty decent clay courter.


Cameron Norrie - 1.5 sets v Karen Khachanov: There haven't been too many British players who have enjoyed playing on the clay courts, but Cameron Norrie has become an all-court performer. Winning a title in the week before a Grand Slam is not always ideal preparation, especially in the men's tournament, but Cameron Norrie is clearly confident and has made relatively comfortable work of his first couple of matches at the French Open.

The clay court performances in 2021 were something of a surprise, but you cannot say the same in 2022 with Cameron Norrie producing strong results again.

The numbers have remained remarkably similar between 2021 and the 2022 clay court seasons and that is pretty impressive when you think Cameron Norrie holds 79% of service games played and backs that up with 26% of return games ending in a break of serve. A loss to Alex De Minaur is one that Cameron Norrie would love to have back, but it has taken a big effort from Carlos Alcaraz to beat him in Madrid and defeats to Marin Cilic and Albert Ramos-Vinolas don't look so bad when you think of the French Open performances of the pair of those veterans.

Cameron Norrie will go into this Third Round match as the favourite against Karen Khachanov who has long been a solid, if unspectacular clay court player. The latter is someone who has a very big game, but perhaps not the patience to perform on the red dirt as well as he can on the hard courts and I do think he has a tough match up in front of him.

Winning matches will have given Karen Khachanov some confidence, but he is taking a big step up from his previous two opponents in the French Open who are both Ranked 90 or lower. Before the tournament Khachanov had posted a losing record on the clay courts too and his numbers have been a little disappointing.

We all know that Karen Khachanov has a solid serve that can set up plenty of easy points and he has held 77% of his service games on the clay, but the return has been an issue with 17% of games ending in a break. Like Cameron Norrie, has has suffered a couple of losses to quality players, but defeats to Lucas Pouille and Alex Molcan are less impressive and his numbers on the return are someway behind Cameron Norrie's, which can prove to be a difference maker on the day.

There is also a mental edge for the British player with Cameron Norrie holding a 3-2 head to head lead over Karen Khachanov. One of those wins came earlier this year on the indoor hard courts of Rotterdam, while the other two wins have both been on clay courts.

Both took place in 2021 and Cameron Norrie has held 90% of his service games in those two clay matches against Karen Khachanov compared with the 61% mark that the latter has produced. With the superior clay court numbers in general as well as the head to head, I think Cameron Norrie can be backed to win this match in three or four sets.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 9.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Felix Auger-Aliassime - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Martina Trevisan - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Amanda Anisimova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

French Open Update: 34-29, + 4.58 (126 Units Staked, + 3.63% Yield)

Monday, 27 May 2019

French Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2019 (May 27th)

The first day of any Grand Slam tournament is not going to determine how the rest of the event is going to go, but of course it does feel much better getting off to a strong start.

Eight of the ten picks that were selected on Sunday came back as winners to get the French Open Tennis Picks going in the way I would have wanted. I have a feeling that Monday could be the busiest day of the tournament for my selections though as fourteen more First Round matches have hit the criteria that has proven to be successful so far in 2019 following on from a positive 2018.

On Tuesday the remaining First Round matches will be played, although the weather expected to be in the Paris area may have been a reason there are so many scheduled to be played on Monday. I have already managed to run through the remainder of the First Round so the selections for Tuesday should be ready to be posted earlier than this one for the Day 2 Picks.


The opening day of the French Open saw the majority of the expected names moving through the draw, but the Women's Tournament lost Angelique Kerber. While it was an upset, I was not expecting a deep run from Kerber who will be looking forward to having a couple more weeks to recover from injuries that have been affecting her before the grass court season gets underway.

A number of players will be out there on Monday looking to avoid the early exit like Kerber suffered and I am also hoping to avoid the pitfalls of giving back too much after a strong opening to the tournament. Since my research of the First Round was completed there have been one or two matches that have fallen off my shortlist as the spreads have moved to numbers that I am not comfortable with, but there are plenty that remain of interest which you can see below.


Nikoloz Basilashvili - 1.5 sets v Juan Ignacio Londero: This First Round match opens up Court 9 on Monday and Nikoloz Basilashvili is the favourite to see off Juan Ignacio Londero. The overall numbers suggest that should not be the case, but Basilashvili has been in the superior form over the last two months and I think that is going to make the difference in his favour here.

Over that time Basilasvili has reached the Quarter Final of one tournament on the clay courts and last week was a Semi Finalist in Lyon. The Georgian will feel he could have got the better of Felix Auger Aliassime in the Semi Final, but he failed to come through a second set tie-breaker although the two wins on the way to the final four will have just helped with the confidence.

Basilashvili has been holding 76% of his service games played on the clay courts and he has broken in 22% of return games played on the surface. Those numbers have proven to be very similar to 2018 and this is a player who has found himself capable of winning matches on the clay courts without necessarily dominating opponents.

However I do think Basilashvili will have enough of an edge to get the better of Juan Ignacio Londero who performed admirably during the South American Golden Swing earlier this season. Those performances saw him reach a career best World Ranking in early March, but Londero has not been able to bring his form to the European clay courts over the last couple of months.

The service numbers have just slipped a little bit in the last two months compared to earlier this season, but the bigger concern has to be the returning numbers. During that time Londero has only broken in 16% of return games and that is putting more pressure on him to hold his own serve even though he has a decent 77% hold percentage since the move to the European clay courts.

I would not be massively surprised if Londero was to take a set in this one, but Basilashvili has been playing the better tennis. The Argentinian is just 1-4 against top 100 Ranked players on the clay courts since April and his numbers have taken a big decline in that time. With that in mind I am expecting Nikoloz Basilashvili to win this one in three or four sets as he makes his way through to the Second Round.


Borna Coric - 6.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: One of the players that could be a dark horse in the men's draw at the French Open is Borna Coric and he gets to open his campaign on Monday. The draw has paired him with Aljaz Bedene and Coric will have to be careful with this match up and make sure he is close to his best to make his way through to the Second Round.

In recent years Bedene has been someone who is capable of playing some of his better tennis on the clay courts, but 2019 has proven to be a difficult time for him. He didn't play badly during the South American Golden Swing, but the last couple of months have been more difficult for a player who is not Ranked high enough to be given a spot in either of the Masters events that were played on the clay courts of Madrid and Rome.

Aljaz Bedene remains someone who can cause problems with his return of serve, but he is just 1-3 on the clay courts since early April. The main point of concern for Bedene has to be the serve having held just 65% of the service games played on the clay courts since April compared with a 75% mark during the South American portion of the Tour.

That decline in numbers has been hard to make up by the fact that Bedene is breaking in 24% of return games since April compared with the 33% number he had produced earlier in the year. Now Bedene has to play against Borna Coric who looks to be playing at a significantly higher level and pushed some quality players like Fabio Fognini and Roger Federer.

Coric did lose both of those matches, but he could have easily got the better of them with a little more luck at key times. His 82% service hold number on the clay courts look like it will give him a serious edge in this match, while the Croatian is breaking in 24% of the return games played.

This match certainly feels like one in which Coric can earn a couple of breaks of serve within a set on at least one and perhaps two different times in this match. It should give Coric a chance of being in a position to cover this handicap mark during the course of this best of five set match, although Bedene will have his moments and will need to be respected.


Astra Sharma - 2.5 games v Shelby Rogers: One of the improving players on the Tour looks to take another step in her career when Astra Sharma looks for her second Grand Slam win. Back in January Sharma reached the Second Round of the Australian Open in her home Grand Slam and the run to the Final in the Mixed Doubles will have given her some confidence.

Even coming up short in that Final has not been a setback for Sharma who has moved inside the top 100 of the World Rankings for the first time at the end of April. A good run at the French Open will give Sharma a chance to enter the upcoming Grand Slams without having to be forced into the Qualifiers and the performances on the clay courts suggest she can get the better of Shelby Rogers who is on the road back from a long-term injury.

Astra Sharma reached the Final of the tournament in Bogota and she has won plenty of matches on the clay courts in 2019. It can't be ignored that Sharma has mainly taken advantage of kind draws to produce the wins she has and there is room for improvement, but the draw here at the French Open has not been a bad one to open up for the Aussie either.

As I have mentioned, Shelby Rogers is recovering from a long-term injury and that has seen her just struggle for consistency within matches. You have to respect the fact that Rogers has pushed Jelena Ostapenko, a former French Open Champion, and Caroline Garcia on the clay courts over the last two months, but there is also a defeat to Sharma on this surface that should give the favourite an edge.

On that day in Bogota, Sharma was much more comfortable behind her serve and that could be the case again with the likelihood of the conditions allowing the higher Ranked player to get enough balls in play to frustrate Rogers. The latter did take a set off of Sharma in her defeat in April, but she has not really played at the kind of level to think this one is going to be much different.

In this First Round match the player who can have the most success in winning points behind the second serve is going to have the edge to go through. So far on the clay courts it has felt like Sharma is playing well enough to edge out Rogers and the win over her should aid her mentally as she moves through to the Second Round with a cover of the spread.


Danielle Collins - 4.5 games v Tatjana Maria: I am not sure the French Open crowd are really going to get behind Danielle Collins who can be an abrasive personality on a tennis court. That could be an issue for someone who wears their heart on their sleeve and who wants to challenge opponents, but I am not anticipating Collins to have too many concerns on the court in this First Round match.

Some may not like the way Collins carries herself and the kind of confidence she has in herself, but I am a fan. A strong run at the Australian Open announced Collins to a lot of tennis fans out there, but it does feel like the clay courts are going to be the weakest surface for her.

The results have borne that out somewhat and she has had to deal with a couple of really disappointing results on the surface. However recent losses to Ashleigh Barty and Garbine Muguruza could have gone Collins way with a little more luck at critical times and I do think this is a player in superior form to her opponent Tatjana Maria.

The German has had a couple of tough years on the clay courts and Maria's struggles on the second serve as well as the return of serve have really let her down. Those declining numbers are a factor in Maria producing a 1-5 run on the clay courts heading into the French Open and the real disappointment will be that four of those five defeats have come to players Ranked 61 or lower.

It is Collins who has the superior serving numbers and she has also shown a stronger ability on the return of serve while also playing higher Ranked opponents than what Maria has tended to deal with. The spread is still one you have to respect as it could need as many as three or four breaks of serve for Collins to cover it, but I think it is possible.

The American has been winning at least 45% of return points played on the clay courts despite her 5-4 record and she should have some real joy against the Maria serve. When these players met in Sydney on the hard courts earlier this season Collins earned eight break points in a straight sets win and I think she will be able to create a similar number here which should give her every chance of covering the handicap.


Dayana Yastremska - 1.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: In the last couple of weeks Dayana Yastremska has just turned 19 years old, but she has long been touted as one of the players that could be a leading light on the WTA Tour. After winning the title in Strasbourg last week, the Ukrainian will be heading into the French Open hoping to match the run to the Third Round she put together at the Australian Open.

Before winning five matches to take the title home in Strasbourg, Yastremska had lost all three matches played on the clay courts. While on most occasions that would put me off in selecting her as a short favourite, Yastremska was very competitive in defeats to Kristina Mladenovic, Karolina Pliskova and First Round opponent Carla Suarez Navarro.

When these two players met in Rome, Yastremska came up short against Suarez Navarro despite winning more points in the match. There was very little between them and the run of wins put together by the younger player could easily see things switched around.

Carla Suarez Navarro is going to be dangerous having always been a solid clay court performer, but there are signs of decline that can't be ignored. She is still very capable of putting a strong performance together, but Suarez Navarro is not returning as well as she once did on the surface.

That could be a problem against a talented performer like Yastremska who has won 44% of return points against Suarez Navarro in both of their meetings in 2019. The match at the Australian Open was won by Yastremska and in both matches played between these two opponents the young Ukrainian has won at least one set with a 6-1 scoreline.

Playing the week before a Slam can be tough work for players, especially if they win the title as Yastremska did. She has had a day to rest between travelling from Strasbourg to Paris, and I think at the age she is I would expect Yastremska to have recovered about as well as you can.

Momentum could be important after putting the run together in Strasbourg and I will look for Yastremska to beat the veteran Spaniard and cover this number of games.


Bianca Andreescu - 3.5 games v Marie Bouzkova: I am backing one 19 year old to have a successful First Round match and I am also prepared to back an 18 year old who is soon turning 19 herself. Bianca Andreescu has already raised her profile on the Tour by winning a Premier Event in Indian Wells this season as she has moved up to Number 22 in the World Rankings.

That Ranking may have been even more impressive if not for an injury suffered in Miami which has basically kept Andreescu out of the clay court season. The Canadian has made it clear she is ready to compete having decided to practice at Rafael Nadal's Academy in Mallorca rather than take in a tournament while recovering.

It does raise some questions as to how Andreescu will be feeling going into her first competitive match on the clay courts. Last season she failed to actually Qualify for the French Open having been beaten in the Third Qualifying Round, but I think the confidence earned earlier this season will see Andreescu produce some of her better tennis.

She has a chance to get her teeth into the tournament when taking on a Lucky Loser in the First Round. Maria Bouzkova has played three matches in Paris which may aid her, but the Czech player has not really produced a lot of top performances on this surface in the last couple of years.

Back in January Andreescu destroyed Bouzkova on a hard court in a match where she dropped just three games. The lack of tennis is a concern when backing Andreescu here, but she is someone who should be able to have enough success on the return to break down the Bouzkova game.

It should be enough for Andreescu to find a way to win this match and cover the handicap as she begins to turn the screw in the second set once the initial match rustiness wears off.


Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Vitalia Diatchenko: This is a quick hit to explain why I am backing Serena Williams despite the photos that surfaced of her time at Disneyland Paris earlier this week.

On that day the American was pictured in a wheelchair, but it sounds like it was more of a precaution rather than anything much more serious than that. There is no doubt that Williams is suffering with a leg injury considering how many tournaments she had to pull out from in 2019, but she looked ok hitting the ball in practice in the last couple of days.

If Serena Williams takes to the court I think she will be ready to go and she did beat Rebecca Peterson by enough games to cover this spread in her only clay court match so far in 2019. Now she plays Vitalia Diatchenko who has not been performing that well on the surface and whose last three French Open's have seen her crushed without winning more than five games in any of the matches in which she was defeated.

When fit Serena Williams is still very difficult to beat and I think she will be able to pull away in this First Round match as she looks to move through to the Second Round as quickly as possible.

MY PICKS: Nikoloz Basilashvili - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Astra Sharma - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Danielle Collins - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Dayana Yastremska - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Mihaela Buzarnescu - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Joao Sousa @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Corentin Moutet - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Jaume Munar - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Tennys Sandgren + 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jan-Lennard Struff - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

French Open Update: 8-2, + 10.12 Units (20 Units Staked, + 50.60% Yield)

Sunday, 27 May 2018

French Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2018 (May 27th)

The French Open, the second Grand Slam of the season, gets underway on Sunday with a number of First Round matches scheduled.

This is the only Slam on the Tennis calendar which begins on a Sunday and that means the First Round is spread over three days rather than the traditional Monday/Tuesday you will see at the other Grand Slams.

I've put together an outright preview of the French Open with my outright picks which can be read here.

The Day 1 Picks follow.


Nicolas Jarry - 1.5 sets v Jared Donaldson: It has been a breakthrough season for Nicolas Jarry on the main Tour and his best results have unsurprisingly come on the clay courts. That is part of the reason he is favoured to beat Jared Donaldson in the First Round on Sunday and I do think Jarry will get the better of his American opponent who has struggled on this surface all season.

It won't be straight forward for Jarry because of the lack of real experience at this kind of level, but a lot of factors have pointed him out as the right player to back here.

While Jarry has had some strong runs in clay court events in South America and Europe in 2018, his opponent Donaldson's most memorable moment may have been the argument he got into with an umpire over a mark on the surface. That's not a particularly good thing for Donaldson who has struggled in a lot of aspects of his game on the clay.

Life will be that much tougher for Donaldson playing against an opponent who has carried his tremendous serving numbers onto the main Tour events in 2018. The serve is key for Jarry because it gives him some freedom to attack on the return of serve although Jarry will know he has to be better at creating break point opportunities and subsequently taking those.

Donaldson's struggles on the serve may help and I think Jarry is going to come through this in three or four sets with his own ability to hold serve in cleaner fashion the key to the outcome. It should be a big hitting match between these two and the break point chances may not come that often, but Jarry has looked the more comfortable on the clay and can use that to a strong First Round win.


Lucas Pouille - 5.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: There isn't as much hope around a home winner at the French Open as there has been in recent times in Paris, but Lucas Pouille could be the most likely to at least offer a French presence in the men's draw into the second week.

It may be something of a surprise to read that when you consider how rough this clay court season has been for Pouille, but I really do think he has been unfortunate at times. Pouille has played some very good tennis, but his consistency has not been at the level he would like and the Frenchman has also been a little unfortunate in close matches.

This First Round match should be a good one for Pouille against the talented Russian Daniil Medvedev who has had a really tough time on the clay over the last couple of years. There have been moments it looks like Medvedev has gotten to grips with the surface, but he has fallen away in matches when things have begun to go wrong for him and Pouille is capable of pulling away if Medvedev loses belief.

Neither player returns as well as they would hope on the clay which should mean this is a serve dominated match, but that is where Pouille has an edge. He wins around 75% of his service games over the last four years on the clay, but compared to Medvedev those numbers are very strong.

In 2017 Medvedev held around 60% and he has only improved that to 66% in 2018, and that only underlines the problems he has on the return of serve which could show up in this match.

Pouille is not easy to trust with the big number, but I can see him covering even if he drops a set because of some of the collapses Medvedev has had on the surface.


Federico Delbonis - 1.5 sets v Thomaz Bellucci: Any time a player comes through three Qualifying Rounds to enter the main draw of a Grand Slam there has to be some respect for them. Thomaz Bellucci has done that in Paris this week and he is facing an opponent he is very familiar with and certainly will feel he can win this type of match.

The Brazilian has really fallen down the World Rankings as loss of form coupled with injury has affected his ability to win the number of matches he needed to stay in the top 100. At one point Bellucci would have been considered a really tough opponent on the clay, and he has beaten Novak Djokovic on the surface during the Serb's run to the top of the men's game, but these days he spends his time on the Challenger circuit.

Putting some wins together at that level will at least have given Bellucci some confidence to take into this First Round match against Federico Delbonis.

Delbonis is also very comfortable on the clay courts and he has been producing some solid tennis in the build up to the French Open as he made his own return from injury.

The two players have some very similar numbers on the clay in 2018, but you have to factor in Delbonis has been playing at a higher level than Bellucci. The latter's numbers take a significant impact when he has played against top 100 Ranked players and that is what Bellucci will be facing on Sunday and I think Delbonis is going to get the better of him.

It may need four sets to separate them, but I think Delbonis able to win this in three or four sets and I will back him to cover the set handicap.


David Goffin - 6.5 games v Robin Haase: One of the more steady players on the clay courts in recent seasons is David Goffin and it is no surprise that one of his two career Slam Quarter Finals has come at Roland Garros. That run came in 2016 and Goffin will be hoping that his play can help produce another chance at the business end of a Grand Slam.

Being steady means Goffin can wear down some of the lesser lights on the Tour, but he has yet to really make the leap to beat the better players on the clay courts. In the First Round the Belgian faces a dangerous Robin Haase whose best results have been on this surface and who crushed Goffin in Gstaad last season.

They have since met at the Madrid Masters which ended in a very easy win for Goffin and I think that is the more likely outcome of this match.

As dangerous as Haase can be on the clay when he is serving at his best, it has to be noted that he is winning under 60% of points behind serve in 2018. Against someone who can be as effective returning the ball as Goffin that is not going to be good enough and proved to be Haase's downfall when these players met at the Madrid Masters.

Goffin's serve has been stronger than Haase's so far in 2018 and the Dutchman's limited return is unlikely to be good enough for him in this First Round match.

It could be a dangerous match for Goffin, but I think his style will help him work through to a comfortable win and a cover of a very big number.


Anett Kontaveit - 5.5 games v Madison Brengle: One of the potential dark horses in the women's French Open draw is Anett Kontaveit who has some strong numbers on the clay courts which highlight the danger she could pose in the draw.

Twelve months ago not many would have picked Jelena Ostapenko as a potential winner in Paris which shows it can be done, although Kontaveit has to find a little more consistency if she really wants to win seven matches in a row over the next two weeks. Two runs to the Semi Finals in a couple of big tournaments will give Kontaveit some belief though and I like her to get the better of Madison Brengle in the First Round.

There isn't a lot to like about the Brengle game, but she puts in plenty of hard work on and off the court and the American will be hoping to extract errors from the Kontaveit game with her ability to play very strong defensive tennis. Forcing her opponent to hit one more ball has been the way Brengle has looked to work her way to winning positions in points, but she will need Kontaveit off her game.

Her return game has been a very strong part of her performances on the clay courts in 2018 and Brengle will look to get enough Kontaveit serves back in play. However it is going to be tough to get into a strong position in rallies if Kontaveit can get enough first serves in play which is a shot on which she can lay the foundation for success.

The return game is strong enough to get the better of Brengle who has really had a tough time serving on the clay courts and I think it is Kontaveit who is going to find her way to the win. The First Round match looks like one in which Kontaveit will be able to pull away with at least one set where she produces a couple of breaks of serve more than Brengle and that should be good enough to cover this number.


Elina Svitolina - 6.5 games v Alja Tomljanovic: One of the leading contenders to win the French Open in the women's draw is Elina Svitolina and she gets her title bid underway on Sunday in the First Round. It may have been easier for Svitolina, but she has to be confident she can see off Alja Tomljanovic.

There are no doubting some of the strong numbers Svitolina has produced on the clay courts over the last few seasons and retaining the title in Rome will give her a huge boost of confidence to take into the second Major of the season.

We have previously seen Svitolina come up short in the highly pressurised situation of playing deep into the second week of a Grand Slam, but the Ukrainian is still young and will believe there is room to improvement.

The serve in general has improved and Svitolina continues to put up solid returning numbers which makes her a threat to Tomljanovic despite a couple of very strong tournaments on the clay in 2018. The Australian has reached the Final in Marrakech and also the Third Round in Rome, but this is a step up and Tomljanovic has not played well when facing the top players on the clay.

It is clear the numbers take a serious decline when Tomljanovic faces top 50 Ranked players on the clay where her serve becomes a real vulnerability and it has been that much more pressurised on the return of serve. While I think Tomljanovic can get into some of the Svitolina service games, I think she will be put under constant pressure on her own serve and even this big number of games can be covered by the higher Ranked player.

Tomljanovic has taken some heavy losses to Daria Kasatkina, Donna Vekic and Elise Mertens on the clay courts in 2018 and I think Svitolina wins with a statement result that has her competitors sit up and take notice.


Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: Johanna Konta has really struggled to find her form on the clay courts, but confidence is not in short supply as she told a national media outlet that she is a danger at the French Open to win it all. That looks a long shot, but she can beat Yulia Putintseva in the First Round and I think Konta will be able to do that despite a poor history here.

Konta may only be 3-3 on the clay courts this season, but the numbers in general have been decent enough and certainly good enough to win this kind of match.

The serve remains a huge weapon for Konta and she has been returning well enough which have aided her confidence even if she is just 3-3 on the clay this season.

You have to give Putintseva some respect too having had some decent performance on the clay courts in 2018 despite a poor 2017. There has been some joy from the first serve which is going to be a key to the outcome of this match as Putintseva can stun Konta if she is working well behind the first serve.

However that is asking for a lot from the smaller player who doesn't generate the same type of power from the serve as her opponent. Putintseva can improve her game when she is facing the best players on the Tour, but Konta should have the edge behind the serve and she is returning well enough to cause problems for her opponent.

Consistency has been a problem at times for Putintseva, but I still think she will have her moments in this one. However I do think Konta will prevail and win a rare match at the French Open while covering this number.

MY PICKS: Nicolas Jarry - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Goffin - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Anett Kontaveit - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)