Tennis Picks July 20th ATP Hamburg

I have decided to split my Hamburg picks and Atlanta picks into two separate posts as the schedule for tomorrow's tennis in the USA wont be released until much later, while the prices are only really available in the morning, albeit several hours before the first game is due to start.

I will continue to update the weekly picks on both threads, but I find it is the easiest way to make any picks assuming there are some from both tournaments.

Hamburg used to be one of the top Masters events on the clay courts and while it does not have the big names entering anymore considering its place on the schedule, a good field has still turned up this week.

Yesterday we had a couple of surprises as Juan Carlos Ferrero, Phillip Petzschner and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez all lost as short favourites.

The last of those results looks like being a bit of good news for my outright pick of the week- Marin Cilic is yet to play but has seen the likes of Garcia-Lopez and Juan Ignacio Chela fall out of the draw in his section and he looks like he has a decent look at getting to the Quarter Finals now.

I was hoping Carlos Berlocq would have put out Mikhail Youzhny too, but that would be getting greedy and I just hope Cilic can take advantage of the draw opening up for him. He has dropped 8 points at the bookmakers without hitting a ball, so lets just hope he has come to play this week.

Now on to the Picks:

Treble; Marin Cilic vs Bastian Knittel, Gael Monfils vs Albert Ramos and Nicolas Almagro vs Lukas Rosol: None of the three players I am picking are the most trustworthy when it comes to being priced as short priced favourites in their matches but all three should have enough of an edge over their opponents to get through.

Marin Cilic was my outright pick this week, but he has struggled for form this season with his serve being particularly erratic in recent weeks. However, he plays against a German qualifier that had not won a match on the main tour on a clay court in the last few seasons before he beat Ivan Dodig.

Bastian Knittel is only 14-14 on clay in Challenger events and qualifiers this season and should not really have the level to trouble Cilic.

Gael Monfils is underachieving in his professional career considering all the talent he has- he may be in the top 10, but has failed to win tournaments on a consistent basis and still loses far too many silly matches.

Monfils was a disappointing loser in Stuttgart last week to Victor Hanescu, but he is a decent clay court player and that loss could be put down to his exertions in the Davis Cup a few days prior.

He meets a player that must play around 99% of his matches on the clay courts and one that performs very well on the Challenger circuit and when qualifying for main tour events. However, Ramos has never really transferred that form to the main tour, and I feel Monfils will be too consistent for him if he plays like he can.

Nicolas Almagro is the favourite to win this tournament and is likely to be glad he is playing Lukas Rosol rather than Potito Starace. Almagro is a very strong clay court player and one that has a proven track record of winning tournaments on the surface. His overall game should be too strong for Rosol, although it could be a tight first set.

Double; Florian Mayer vs Marsel Ilhan and Juan Monaco vs Janko Tipsarevic: Both of these players are favourites to win and I believe they can both do so.

Florian Mayer has lost his last 2 matches, but has had probably a career year on the main ATP tour. Mayer has had a decent season on the clay courts this season, reaching the Final in Munich and the Quarter Final in Rome before helping Germany win in Dusseldorf.

Marsel Ilhan is beginning to make an impact on the Challenger tour but he has not quite transferred that form onto the main tour. Ilhan did reach a Final on the surface a couple of weeks ago in Holland, but this should represent a hurdle too far here in Hamburg.

Janko Tipsarevic has not played since Serbia won their Davis Cup tie with Sweden and, judging by his statements since, he has enjoyed partying it up with his friends to celebrate. Tipsarevic is usually a tougher opponent on the faster surfaces and last Summer decided to play in Atlanta rather than in the clay tournaments after Wimbledon.

Juan Monaco is a clay court expert and it seems he has got over the foot injury that saw him withdraw at Bastad last week. The Argentine holds a win over Tipsarevic on the clay courts from 2 years ago, and I think he may have a little more motivation for this match.

Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver: This is a rematch from Madrid, a match that Gimeno-Traver won in straight sets, but I really feel Melzer can turn the form around this time.

Melzer had won their 2 previous meetings before that match in Madrid, including once on clay, and had won all 4 sets they had competed in. The Austrian might be ranked Number 12 in the World, but he has been struggling for form in recent weeks.

However, he did reach the Final here in Hamburg last year and Gimeno-Traver has been struggling himself this season with only 6 wins from the 24 matches he played this year.

If Melzer can serve well, I think he can put another pressure on Gimeno-Traver to get a break in each set and cover this spread.

MY PICKS: Treble; Marin Cilic, Gael Monfils and Nicolas Almagro @ 2.26 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Double; Florian Mayer and Juan Monaco @ 2.39 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)

WEEKLY UPDATE: + 1.26 Units

Tennis Picks July 14th

It was a much better day for me yesterday with Juan Monaco and Potito Starace both winning their matches, albeit making life much tougher for themselves than was likely required.

It has been tough picking in matches this week as a lot of the favourites have struggled. For example, in Stuttgart 6 of the 8 seeds fell before the 2nd Round and there are some big priced winners in that tournament.

That's not to say it is easy to pick these matches- some of the results could easily have gone another way if 1 or 2 points had landed differently, but the week has shown how tough it can be in the World of tennis to consistently pick winners.

I had felt my luck was all but out earlier in the week as players seemed to be crumbling without much notice in matches; the worst example was Igor Andreev losing a 3-0 lead in the final set against Diego Junqueira.

It didn't help my mood much to notice Junqueira won just 1 game against Robin Soderling tonight. That result just makes me wonder what Andreev was playing at in his match to blow a lead as badly as he did.


Now is not the time to complain though, not while one of my outright picks of the week is still alive and the loss from earlier in the week has been reduced somewhat.

On to the Days Picks:

Double- Juan Monaco vs Blaz Kavcic and Filippo Volandri vs Andreas Haider-Maurer: Juan Monaco had to dig deep to get through his match with Carlos Berlocq yesterday, but I am going to keep faith with the Argentine in a matchup he should be able to take advantage of.

Blaz Kavcic has not really had the wins on clay courts previously to suggest he can beat a player of Monaco's calibre, but he can up his level for short bursts.

If Monaco can stay with him while Kavcic is on a high level of play, he should be able to take advantage of his dips and win through.

Filippo Volandri is a clay courter, but has really struggled to maintain the form that saw him beat Roger Federer in Rome in 2007. However, he should hold the mental edge over Andreas Haider-Maurer since he has 2 wins over him, both in straight sets, on clay courts this season.

Haider-Maurer took advantage of a favourable draw against Mikhail Kukushkin, but this is a much stiffer test and one he has failed to pass twice. I dont expect the Austrian to make it third time lucky.


David Ferrer - 5.5 games vs Pere Riba-Madrid: I was a little concerned with David Ferrer's state of mind after all the mental efforts it took to lead Spain to a Davis Cup win over the USA on Sunday. He has also had to travel from Texas to Sweden, but the extra day of rest could be crucial to his ability in this match.

Pere Riba-Madrid has not had the same impact on the main tour as he has had on the Challenger circuit and I see Ferrer's consistency causing him problems during this match.

Ferrer is a player that will give it his all if he does take part in a tournament and I expect he will come through 6-4, 6-2.


Mikhail Youzhny - 3 games vs Juan Carlos Ferrero: Mikhail Youzhny was excellent in his comfortable win over Phillip Petzschner in the last Round and I expect he will come out on top against the classy Juan Carlos Ferrero here.

Ferrero usually reserves his best tennis for the clay, but a lack of matches could seriously undermine him against a tough opponent like Youzhny.

This will only be Ferrero's 7th match since the US Open last September and I just feel Youzhny can grind him down.

The Russian is 1-2 against Ferrero in the head to heads, but his sole win came in 4 sets at the French Open and I think he can remain the highest seed left in Stuttgart.


MY PICKS: Double- Juan Monaco and Filippo Volandri @ 2.25 William Hill (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 3 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE: - 2.61 Units

Tennis Picks July 13th

It was another poor day yesterday for the picks as the bad run stretches back 10 days now.

I will write more on the week's events so far tomorrow, but today I will just put up my one pick from tomorrow:

Double: Juan Monaco vs Carlos Berlocq and Potito Starace vs Jonathan Dasnieres de Veigy: Just a quick note why I am picking these two short priced favourties to win.

Juan Monaco comes in off a morale boosting 2 wins in the Davis Cup for Argentina and faces an opponent he has beaten on all 3 occasions they have played.

There is the danger of jet lag from travelling, but he was given an extra day to prepare and should be too strong.

Potito Starace already has a win here and I have already said previously how much he enjoys playing on clay courts. He faces an opponent that is not used to playing at this level and someone who beat a local hope in the 1st Round.

I expect Starace's experience will take him through.


MY PICKS: Double- Juan Monaco and Potito Starace @ 1.70 Pinnacle (3 Units)

WEEKLY UPDATE: - 4.78 Units