Tennis Picks July 18th

After a very disappointing week all round last week, I am hoping for a little more luck and hope to get back into making profits.

Monday is usually the most quiet day of the week in these tournaments and this week is no difference. However that does not mean there are no picks to be made, so lets get on with the show:


Double; Potito Starace vs Lukas Rosol and Pere Riba vs Tobias Kamke: Lets get things clear straight away, neither one of the players I have backed in this double are exactly the most trustworthy players on the ATP.

In saying that, I do expect both will be good enough to come through the tests standing in their way on the opening day at Hamburg.

Lukas Rosol does the majority of his best work on the clay courts, but the majority of his success will be on the Challenger tour and when qualifying for events rather than in the main draw. Rosol did reach the 3rd Round of the French Open this year, and has won 2 Challenger tournaments on this surface this season.

The Czech player was beaten in the final round of qualifying here but got into the draw as a 'Lucky Loser' and these players can be dangerous.

Potito Starace should be good enough to come through this match as he is definitely the more experienced clay court player and had a couple of victories in Sweden last week before running into the hot Robin Soderling.

I actually thought Starace would be priced closer to 1.36 so the 1.5 available looks too good to pass up.

The 2nd part of the double is backing Pere Riba to beat Tobias Kamke. Riba is definitely the more comfortable on clay courts than his opponent and has beaten him on the clay earlier this season. While it is not a good idea to back a player like Riba at odds on, I really believe he will get the better of Kamke on this surface.

Riba has the stronger record on clay in both main tour events and on the Challenger tour and I expect he will come through here.


Gilles Muller vs Alex Bogomolov Jr: I was a little surprised to see Gilles Muller as the underdog in this match considering his serve and overall game is perfectly suited to playing on the hard courts and the faster surfaces in general.

Muller has probably underachieved in his career considering how big he hits the ball and the fact he is a lefty. However, I do like him in this match as he goes up against a player that has not really had the success on the hard courts over the last 3 seasons to justify him being odds on here.

I expect this match will go close to tie breaks in every set, and I just feel Muller's serve is a more reliable than Bogomolov's and that could provide the difference.

I would also not be surprised if this goes the distance, but I think Muller can come through with a win and reach the 2nd Round in Atlanta for the 2nd year in succession.


James Blake vs Ernests Gulbis: This has been priced up as a toss up between these two players, but I think James Blake may have been underestimated slightly.

I had made a decision to never back Blake again last Summer after watching him get dismantled by Denis Istomin, but I was much more impressed with his performance against Marcos Baghdatis at Wimbledon and he comes into this tournament off the back of a win in the Challenger event at Winnetka a couple of weeks ago.

Ernests Gulbis has completely wasted his potential so far in his career and he only seems to get up for the big matches these days. He has been criticised for a lack of effort in his training and 'tanking' away matches. Gulbis has also lost his last 4 matches and has not really played as well on the hard courts in recent seasons as his game should allow him.

I just feel Gulbis does not focus on his matches as much as others, and I think James Blake perhaps has more motivation and more recent form to come through.


MY PICKS: Double: Potito Starace and Pere Riba @ 2.48 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gilles Muller @ 2.2 Pinnacle (2 Units)
James Blake @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Tennis Picks July 13th

It was another poor day yesterday for the picks as the bad run stretches back 10 days now.

I will write more on the week's events so far tomorrow, but today I will just put up my one pick from tomorrow:

Double: Juan Monaco vs Carlos Berlocq and Potito Starace vs Jonathan Dasnieres de Veigy: Just a quick note why I am picking these two short priced favourties to win.

Juan Monaco comes in off a morale boosting 2 wins in the Davis Cup for Argentina and faces an opponent he has beaten on all 3 occasions they have played.

There is the danger of jet lag from travelling, but he was given an extra day to prepare and should be too strong.

Potito Starace already has a win here and I have already said previously how much he enjoys playing on clay courts. He faces an opponent that is not used to playing at this level and someone who beat a local hope in the 1st Round.

I expect Starace's experience will take him through.


MY PICKS: Double- Juan Monaco and Potito Starace @ 1.70 Pinnacle (3 Units)

WEEKLY UPDATE: - 4.78 Units

Tennis Picks July 12th

It was disappointing to see Gilles Simon lose out to Albert Montanes last night as that ended my outright interest in the Stuttgart tournament at the first hurdle and also saw the picks begin badly this week.

Hopefully, tomorrow brings a better reward so on to the Picks:


Double: Potito Starace vs Julian Reister and Igor Andreev vs Diego Junqueira: I am picking these two men as they have far more clay court experience, and play at a higher level on a consistent basis respectively.

Potito Starace's main body of good work comes on the clay courts and 85% of his wins in the last 4 seasons have been on clay courts. He has also won 74% of his matches on clay in that time and comes in off the back of Davis Cup success with Italy.

Reister has lost 10 of his last 11 matches on all surfaces, but does favour the clay. Unfortunately, the main tour looks a little too good for him at this time and he now plays a player that does the majority of his damage on this surface.

Igor Andreev has never really fulfilled the potential he clearly has, but the majority of his success remains on the clay courts. He might not have had to go through 3 Rounds of Qualifiers as his opponent has, and that is a slight concern as he has not played since the first week of Wimbledon.

In saying that, Diego Junqueira has not won on the main tour in 2 years and has been mainly playing on the Challenger tour. While he has grown up on the clay, I expect Andreev will be too strong.


Nikolay Davydenko - 4.5 games vs Cedrik-Marcel Stebe: This looks a mismatch on paper, but Nikolay Davydenko is not the player of 18 months ago and faces a young hungry German player here.

Davydenko has won in Munich already this season, but comes in to the match in poor form and will need to pick his game up early. However, Stebe has not played an opponent like Davydenko, a player that can out hustle and grind down the best of opponents.

I just think Davydenko will eventually be too consistent for the novice and pull away for a 2 set win.


Jeremy Chardy vs Tobias Kamke: I should have learnt my lesson in backing short priced French players after Richard Gasquet and Gilles Simon have let me down in the last few days, but I am going to the well again, mainly because I want to oppose Kamke.

Kamke will have been travelling back from the United States after reaching a Semi Final on the grass of Newport so it could be an adjustment for him mentally in this game.

Add to these factors the issue of Kamke struggling on clay so far in his career, and the pendulum swings towards Chardy here.

Chardy himself has struggled a little bit on the slower surface in his last 2 seasons, but has previously found success on the clay courts.

As I said, I am not the biggest fan of short priced French players, but the odds are just tempting enough on this occasion.


MY PICKS: Potito Starace and Igor Andreev Double @ 1.82 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nikolay Davydenko - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy @ 1.61 Stan James (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE: - 2 Units

Davis Cup Quarter Final Picks- July 8th 2011

It wasn't a great day for me yesterday with both picks failing to deliver. Juan Monaco dominated his match against Andrey Golubev and was never in any real danger of dropping a set, while Edouard Roger-Vasselin lost after winning the first set of his match with Tobias Kamke.

However, both picks were with minimum stakes as I was not overly confident in either and I hope to have a better day as the 3 other Davis Cup Quarter Final ties begin.


So without further ado, it is on to the Picks:


Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games vs Florian Mayer: This match is the opening Rubber of the Germany-France match and will be played on clay courts, but I am still a little surprised that Gasquet is being considered a tight favourite to win the match.

As I have mentioned before on the blog, Florian Mayer can be an awkward player to get used to as he has a very unique style of playing and serving. The German has had a good season so far, but I think his World Number 20 Ranking is a little bit too kind to his ability.

Mayer's serve is a weakness and that is an area Gasquet will look to expose. He is also only 4-4 in Davis Cup matches in the past, although Mayer does hold a 4-1 record on matches played on clay. Generally his best results to come on clay.

Gasquet, on the other hand, is once again establishing himself as one of the better players on the ATP Tour and is now just outside the top 10. He has performed admirably on the clay this season, and it has taken the likes of Rafael Nadal (twice) and Novak Djokovic to prevent him having more success.

The French Number 2 will be making his first Davis Cup singles appearance since 2008 and will hope he can improve his 5-5 record (1-2 on clay).

The head to head is 1-1, with Gasquet winning the most recent meeting in 2007.

Gasquet should have the edge in the match in terms of serve and overall groundstrokes. If he can ignore the vocal home support Mayer will receive, I think he can get through in 3 or 4 sets. Mayer is also capable of going walkabouts in sets as can be seen in recent defeats to Alejandro Falla and Xavier Malisse, so Gasquet could cover the spread thanks to a 6-2/6-1 set.


Mardy Fish - 1.5 sets vs Feliciano Lopez: This is also the opening Rubber of the Quarter Final between the USA and Spain and could set the tempo for the entire tie.

Mardy Fish is the top rated American coming into this tie and pulled out of the tournament at Newport where he was the defending Champion so he could take part here. Fish is having a very good season and has all the tools to be very effective in what is being described as a much faster hard court than many of the players will be used to.

That wont bother Feliciano Lopez too much if that is the case, especially as it could make his serve even more effective. Lopez got the nod to represent Spain ahead of good friend Fernando Verdasco after reaching the Quarter Finals at Wimbledon.

Lopez will make life difficult with his serve, especially if he gets it firing early in the match, but I just feel Fish moves better and is perhaps the more consistent player of the two, especially when it comes to the crunch.

Fish may also hold the mental edge as he has won the last 3 meetings between the two players, one of those on the hard courts of Miami, after losing the first 2 meetings. In fact, Fish has won the last 6 sets between the players.

We could see a couple of tie breakers here to separate the players, but I feel it will be Fish who is too consistent and may just 'batter' Lopez in 4 sets.


Potito Starace - 5.5 games vs Blaz Kavcic: The Italians meet the Slovenians at home on the comfort on the clay courts and that should give Potito Starace a big advantage in this matchup. I know Starace is a player that predominantly does his best work when on the red dirt underneath his feet and he will have the full support of the crowd behind him, a crowd that should have been warmed up with this the 2nd of the Rubbers to be played tomorrow.

Blaz Kavcic is more than capable of playing on clay courts, but could be feeling additional pressure if Slovenia are already 1-0 down in the tie.

Starace also holds a straights sets win over Kavcic on the clay courts from last season and I think he is more than capable of winning this one in straight sets and covering the spread in the process.


Gael Monfils win 3-1 in sets vs Phillip Kohlschreiber: This is a tough match for Gael Monfils who likes to entertain the crowds, but will not be receiving much support in this tie. He meets a player in Phillip Kohlschreiber that he has enjoyed considerable success against in the past, although their last meeting was won by the German in straight sets(also played in Germany).

However, Monfils seems to raise his game when playing for his country and I expect him to be focused on this match. His retrieving skills can make it tough for Kohlschreiber to break him down and I feel the clay courts will aid Monfils in frustrating the crowd and his opponent.

Monfils holds a Davis Cup win over Kohlschreiber, beating the German in straight sets last season, but this is a tougher prospect and I definitely see Kohlschreiber getting at least one set on the board.

I just feel Monfils is too strong a player for him, and he will come through in 4 sets to put France in a commanding position on Day 1.


MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 1.5 sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Potito Starace - 5.5 games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)


WEEKLY UPDATE: - 2 Units