Tennis Picks July 23rd Atlanta Semi Finals

I had a strong day in Atlanta yesterday as all 3 picks came in to push the profits up for the week.

Mardy Fish is now 1 win away from reaching the Final and bringing in part 1 of my outright picks. I had Fish e/w at the start of the week and he is now rightly the favourite to retain his title. Ryan Harrison is no pushover, but I expect the top ranked American to put the rising star in his place here and progress through to the Final.

The other Semi Final is more of a pick 'em than I think many feel it will be. John Isner destroyed Yen-Hsun Lu yesterday, but Gilles Muller is a different sort of threat and one that can surprise the American in front of his local support.

Now on to the Picks:

John Isner-Gilles Muller Over 22.5 games: As I said above, I actually think this is a tougher match for Isner than some may think and I do believe we will see a tight contest between the two. They actually met in the 2nd Round last year here in Atlanta which saw Isner come through in 3 sets (4-6, 7-6, 7-6).

The good thing about this total is the same as yesterdays match between Muller and Kevin Anderson- a 7-6, 6-4 scoreline will cover the spread.

Both men have been serving well and it would not surprise me if this actually goes the distance this afternoon.


Mardy Fish - 4.5 games vs Ryan Harrison: I expect Fish will have too much for Harrison in the course of this game and will be able to power through him after a tight first set.

This can be covered with an early break in both sets as long as Fish is serving first. However, I am picking it because I think Harrison does give up chances on the serve and I can see Fish winning one set with a double break and that should be good enough to see him through.

Fish's overall game should be good enough and he has plenty of motivation knowing he can keep his seeded position high at the US Open with a couple of good performances here in Atlanta and in Los Angeles next week.


MY PICKS: John Isner-Gilles Muller Over 22.5 games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE: + 13.38 Units (All picks updated)

Tennis Picks 22nd July ATP Atlanta Quarter Finals

It was not a good day for the picks in Atlanta last night with both Lleyton Hewitt and Xavier Malisse losing matches they should not be. I did take a silver lining from that disappointment though as both of those players were in Mardy Fish's section, my outright pick of the week.

Fish now faces Somdev Devvarman and then the winner of the Ryan Harrison-Rajeev Ram match to reach the Final and I very much expect that to happen.

We have reached the Quarter Finals and it is here that you can really tell a stellar field did not get together as the likes of Yen-Hsun Lu are also still in the tournament.

Thunderstorms are expected today so there could be a couple of rain delays. The other point to mention here is that the matches start at noon local time rather than the 4pm starts they have been having all week.

Now on to the Picks:

Gilles Muller-Kevin Anderson Over 22.5 total games: Both of these guys are reliant on a big serve on which they can build the rest of their game. The best thing about the total games market is this can be covered even if one of the players was to win in straight sets by a scoreline of 7-6, 6-4.

I do expect at least one tie break to be played, as happened in their only previous meeting, and it is also possible that the match could go the distance.

Neither is a great returner, but Anderson has an edge in that department, so Gilles Muller must serve better than he did when defeating Robby Ginepri.

I expect a lot of short points between the two players and I do favour Anderson to eventually come out on top- I just hope its a tough match no matter who wins.


Mardy Fish - 4.5 games vs Somdev Devvarman: I had a couple of concerns about how Mardy Fish would rebound from losing 2 Davis Cup ties in 5 sets last week, but all that was put to rest as he completely dominated Nicolas Mahut last night and it is no surprise to see the American is the favourite to retain his title from last season.

Somdev Devvarman had a real tussle in Round 1 with Ryan Sweeting, but then had a comfortable win over Tatsuma Ito last night. However, this test is a significant raise in level for the Indian player and I feel his serve is too prone to breaking down to have a real impact.

Fish will create a lot of pressure on Devvarman with his strength of shot while the serve is more consistent and has a 2-0 head to head record against his opponent, winning both matches on grass and losing just 6 games in 4 sets.

I would expect the Number 1 seed to come through with a scoreline of 6-4, 6-2 or something similar.


John Isner - 3.5 games vs Yen-Hsun Lu: John Isner looked a little tired in his match with James Blake, something that has to be considered unusual considering he had at least 10 days off since his last match. It may also have been down to the mental pressure of having to hold serve in what was a tough encounter.

This time Isner should be able to see more chances against Yen-Hsun Lu, a player that has taken advantage of a soft section of the draw although has had a bit of trouble in doing so.

Lu is a tough question on his day, but has struggled for form on the main tour all season. He is a decent hard court player but he will be under immense pressure to hold serve if Isner is playing to form.

That could lead to the pressure points and I can see a break in each set for the big American to see him through to the Semi Finals.


MY PICKS: Gilles Muller-Kevin Anderson Over 22.5 total games @ 1.90 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Bodog (2 Units)
John Isner - 3.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE: + 9.88 Units (All picks in from 21st July)

Tennis Picks July 20th ATP Atlanta

As I mentioned in my Hamburg post, I have separated the Atlanta picks because the late released schedule and the bookmakers releasing prices later than usual.

Now on to the Picks:


Double; John Isner vs James Blake and Yen-Hsun Lu vs Marinko Matosevic: Both of these players are the favourites to come through their individual matches and should be able to do so.

John Isner will get a lot of support from the locals considering he was a University of Georgia student. He faces a tough match against James Blake, a player that has been playing better of late, but Isner will hold the edge if he can serve well.

That will put pressure on Blake's serve and we saw against Ernests Gulbis in the last Round that he can lose concentration on his own serve.

Isner has not had the best of seasons but will look to move forward during this hard court Summer swing and reached the Final here last year.

Yen-Hsun Lu is a decent hard court player although he has not had a very good season so far. He served well in his win in the 1st Round and a similar performance should be good enough to see off Marinko Matosevic.

Matosevic's win over Igor Kunitsyn in the last Round was his first on the main tour this season after losing 6 straight matches. He does play the majority of his matches on hard courts, but in the lower levels of the tour and could find himself slightly overmatched in this match.


Gilles Muller - 2 games vs Robby Ginepri: Gilles Muller served very well in the last Round when beating Alex Bogomolov and will feel confident he can overturn his 1-2 head to head record against Robby Ginepri, although their last match was in 2005.

Muller's game is perfectly suited to the faster surfaces and he has been playing well of late. The Luxembourg Number 1 is moving up the rankings and a win here could see him take another leap forward. The majority of his matches have been outside of the main tour events but he is 7-3 in main tour level matches this season.

Robby Ginepri has recently returned to competitive tennis and this will only be his 6th match since September 2010. He did beat Tommy Haas in the last Round, but that was a match between two players making comebacks and this is an altogether different test.

Muller should do enough to win this match and I expect to see him move on to the Quarter Finals.


MY PICKS: Double; John Isner and Yen-Hsun Lu @ 2.36 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 2 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE: + 1.26 Units (Last updated after all matches completed on 19th July)

Tennis Picks July 18th

After a very disappointing week all round last week, I am hoping for a little more luck and hope to get back into making profits.

Monday is usually the most quiet day of the week in these tournaments and this week is no difference. However that does not mean there are no picks to be made, so lets get on with the show:


Double; Potito Starace vs Lukas Rosol and Pere Riba vs Tobias Kamke: Lets get things clear straight away, neither one of the players I have backed in this double are exactly the most trustworthy players on the ATP.

In saying that, I do expect both will be good enough to come through the tests standing in their way on the opening day at Hamburg.

Lukas Rosol does the majority of his best work on the clay courts, but the majority of his success will be on the Challenger tour and when qualifying for events rather than in the main draw. Rosol did reach the 3rd Round of the French Open this year, and has won 2 Challenger tournaments on this surface this season.

The Czech player was beaten in the final round of qualifying here but got into the draw as a 'Lucky Loser' and these players can be dangerous.

Potito Starace should be good enough to come through this match as he is definitely the more experienced clay court player and had a couple of victories in Sweden last week before running into the hot Robin Soderling.

I actually thought Starace would be priced closer to 1.36 so the 1.5 available looks too good to pass up.

The 2nd part of the double is backing Pere Riba to beat Tobias Kamke. Riba is definitely the more comfortable on clay courts than his opponent and has beaten him on the clay earlier this season. While it is not a good idea to back a player like Riba at odds on, I really believe he will get the better of Kamke on this surface.

Riba has the stronger record on clay in both main tour events and on the Challenger tour and I expect he will come through here.


Gilles Muller vs Alex Bogomolov Jr: I was a little surprised to see Gilles Muller as the underdog in this match considering his serve and overall game is perfectly suited to playing on the hard courts and the faster surfaces in general.

Muller has probably underachieved in his career considering how big he hits the ball and the fact he is a lefty. However, I do like him in this match as he goes up against a player that has not really had the success on the hard courts over the last 3 seasons to justify him being odds on here.

I expect this match will go close to tie breaks in every set, and I just feel Muller's serve is a more reliable than Bogomolov's and that could provide the difference.

I would also not be surprised if this goes the distance, but I think Muller can come through with a win and reach the 2nd Round in Atlanta for the 2nd year in succession.


James Blake vs Ernests Gulbis: This has been priced up as a toss up between these two players, but I think James Blake may have been underestimated slightly.

I had made a decision to never back Blake again last Summer after watching him get dismantled by Denis Istomin, but I was much more impressed with his performance against Marcos Baghdatis at Wimbledon and he comes into this tournament off the back of a win in the Challenger event at Winnetka a couple of weeks ago.

Ernests Gulbis has completely wasted his potential so far in his career and he only seems to get up for the big matches these days. He has been criticised for a lack of effort in his training and 'tanking' away matches. Gulbis has also lost his last 4 matches and has not really played as well on the hard courts in recent seasons as his game should allow him.

I just feel Gulbis does not focus on his matches as much as others, and I think James Blake perhaps has more motivation and more recent form to come through.


MY PICKS: Double: Potito Starace and Pere Riba @ 2.48 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gilles Muller @ 2.2 Pinnacle (2 Units)
James Blake @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)