The schedule for Day 1 of the US Open was revised on Sunday evening as the effects of Hurricane Irena are still being felt up and down the East Coast.
Now on to the Day 1 Picks as the final Grand Slam of the year gets underway:
Marin Cilic - 4.5 games vs Ryan Harrison: Marin Cilic had one of his best Grand Slam performances at this tournament when reaching the Quarter Final in 2009, but he has not progressed as much as he would have liked since then yet I do fancy him to get his US Open campaign off to a strong start against the young American.
Harrison has shown some real promise over the Summer by reaching Semi Finals in LA and Atlanta, but a heavy defeat at the hands of Mardy Fish and Victor Troicki suggest he still has some work to do against the bigger guns.
Harrison did surprise Ivan Ljubicic at this stage last year, but I think Cilic will be too strong and should cover the spread even if it takes 4 sets to win the match.
Richard Gasquet - 6.5 games vs Sergiy Stakhovsky: Richard Gasquet is having a decent season on the tour and has shown his class against the lesser opponents he has faced and I feel he will be able to do the same thing here.
Stakhovsky has not had a great season and his serve is erratic and can let him down in sets. He has been beaten in straight sets when exiting the last 2 Grand Slam events, although finished as a 3rd Round loser here last year.
Gasquet should have too much all around game for Stakhovsky and I expect him to come through in 3 sets with a break in the first 2 before running away with the 3rd to cover the handicap.
Treble; Michael Llodra vs Victor Hanescu, Ivo Karlovic vs Fernando Gonzalez and Radek Stepanek vs Philipp Kohlschreiber: Ivo Karlovic and Radek Stepanek have strong records against their opponents and have also been in stronger form than them.
Michael Llodra and Stepanek have also won matches against their respective opponents in the US Open and the treble looks value at over 2-1.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 6.5 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Treble; Michael Llodra, Ivo Karlovic and Radek Stepanek @ 3.17 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
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Showing posts with label Ryan Harrison. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ryan Harrison. Show all posts
Monday, 29 August 2011
Sunday, 21 August 2011
Tennis Outright Picks August 22nd-28th
My final profit/loss update from last week will be updated as soon as the Andy Murray-Novak Djokovic match is completed in Cincinnati, but in the meantime I will have a look at next weeks draw in the last tournaments before the US Open.
This can be a little difficult to predict which players will take these last tournaments seriously, especially with 2 weeks of tough tennis ahead of them at Flushing Meadows, so I will look for any outsiders that may be more interested in this tournament knowing they are unlikely to have a real impact in New York.
ATP Winston Salem Open
The Number 1 seed, and favourite to win this event is Andy Roddick, a player that clearly needs the matches under his belt following a long lay off and an early exit in Cincinnati.
The American's run through to the Semi Final does not look to have too many obstacles in front of it, although I am concerned he could pull out after a couple of wins, either withdrawing or not putting in the required effort to win a match. My reason for that is Roddick will want to be at his freshest going into the US Open which will begin the day after this event finishes, and I cannot imagine he wants to be involved in all the tennis required to win this tournament.
A real potential threat in the bottom half of Roddick's section is John Isner, who actually beat Roddick at the US Open two years ago. Isner has played a lot of tennis this Summer, reaching a Final in Atlanta and Semi Final in Washington, but I also have a few doubts whether he will want to put himself through a gruelling week before a Grand Slam where he must feel he can have an impact.
Players like Marcos Baghdatis and Dmitry Tursunov will feel they may just be able to take advantage if the likes of Roddick and Isner fall out of this section, but both have their own issues and cannot really be backed with any confidence, even at big double figure prices.
Baghdatis has just employed Miles Maclagen, Andy Murray's former coach, but it will take some time before their styles mesh, while Tursunov has failed to really make an impact over the Summer.
The other half of the draw has the same problems with seeded players like Nikolay Davydenko and Jurgen Melzer not to be trusted on current form while others like Kevin Anderson and Alexandr Dolgopolov look too short in the market.
My interest, therefore, in this tournament will instead come in the form of one young player, and one old player.
Both of my picks are American, but I would recommend keeping stakes very small- the first is Ryan Harrison, the other is James Blake.
Ryan Harrison has been in decent nick during the American hard court Summer swing, reaching the Semi Final in both Atlanta and Los Angeles, while being beaten by Novak Djokovic in Cincinnati is not exactly a disgrace.
Harrison has a tough looking match with Kevin Anderson in Round 2 if he progresses, but I think he could cause enough troubles to beat the big serving South African, especially if his serve is not on top form as it was against Andy Murray in Toronto.
He may then be forced into a big match with James Blake in the 3rd Round and I think the winner of that will have a decent chance of going all the way.
Blake has been looking like he is getting back to something like his best, although he is still inconsistent. However, he has won a few Challengers in recent months and it is clear he is trying his best to get back up the Rankings.
The veteran will have a tough 2nd Round match with Robin Haase, but a win in will leave us with a potential match between himself and Harrison.
It's a tough tournament to second guess players, so keep stakes to a minimum.
Prices for the two WTA Events in Texas and New Haven have not been released, I'll check prices when they are released (likely tomorrow at this rate) and will tweet any outrights I have from that market.
MY PICKS: Ryan Harrison @ 26.00 Ladbrokes (0.5 Units E/W)
James Blake @ 26.00 Ladbrokes (0.5 Units E/W)
This can be a little difficult to predict which players will take these last tournaments seriously, especially with 2 weeks of tough tennis ahead of them at Flushing Meadows, so I will look for any outsiders that may be more interested in this tournament knowing they are unlikely to have a real impact in New York.
ATP Winston Salem Open
The Number 1 seed, and favourite to win this event is Andy Roddick, a player that clearly needs the matches under his belt following a long lay off and an early exit in Cincinnati.
The American's run through to the Semi Final does not look to have too many obstacles in front of it, although I am concerned he could pull out after a couple of wins, either withdrawing or not putting in the required effort to win a match. My reason for that is Roddick will want to be at his freshest going into the US Open which will begin the day after this event finishes, and I cannot imagine he wants to be involved in all the tennis required to win this tournament.
A real potential threat in the bottom half of Roddick's section is John Isner, who actually beat Roddick at the US Open two years ago. Isner has played a lot of tennis this Summer, reaching a Final in Atlanta and Semi Final in Washington, but I also have a few doubts whether he will want to put himself through a gruelling week before a Grand Slam where he must feel he can have an impact.
Players like Marcos Baghdatis and Dmitry Tursunov will feel they may just be able to take advantage if the likes of Roddick and Isner fall out of this section, but both have their own issues and cannot really be backed with any confidence, even at big double figure prices.
Baghdatis has just employed Miles Maclagen, Andy Murray's former coach, but it will take some time before their styles mesh, while Tursunov has failed to really make an impact over the Summer.
The other half of the draw has the same problems with seeded players like Nikolay Davydenko and Jurgen Melzer not to be trusted on current form while others like Kevin Anderson and Alexandr Dolgopolov look too short in the market.
My interest, therefore, in this tournament will instead come in the form of one young player, and one old player.
Both of my picks are American, but I would recommend keeping stakes very small- the first is Ryan Harrison, the other is James Blake.
Ryan Harrison has been in decent nick during the American hard court Summer swing, reaching the Semi Final in both Atlanta and Los Angeles, while being beaten by Novak Djokovic in Cincinnati is not exactly a disgrace.
Harrison has a tough looking match with Kevin Anderson in Round 2 if he progresses, but I think he could cause enough troubles to beat the big serving South African, especially if his serve is not on top form as it was against Andy Murray in Toronto.
He may then be forced into a big match with James Blake in the 3rd Round and I think the winner of that will have a decent chance of going all the way.
Blake has been looking like he is getting back to something like his best, although he is still inconsistent. However, he has won a few Challengers in recent months and it is clear he is trying his best to get back up the Rankings.
The veteran will have a tough 2nd Round match with Robin Haase, but a win in will leave us with a potential match between himself and Harrison.
It's a tough tournament to second guess players, so keep stakes to a minimum.
Prices for the two WTA Events in Texas and New Haven have not been released, I'll check prices when they are released (likely tomorrow at this rate) and will tweet any outrights I have from that market.
MY PICKS: Ryan Harrison @ 26.00 Ladbrokes (0.5 Units E/W)
James Blake @ 26.00 Ladbrokes (0.5 Units E/W)
Wednesday, 3 August 2011
Tennis Picks August 3rd Washington and San Diego
I couldn't help but feel a little disappointed in following the David Nalbandian loss to James Blake last night- Nalbandian was my favourite player in the early part of the last decade and one that I felt has not quite reached the heights that his talent has deserved, either through injury or not quite finishing the job at key times.
His biggest moment came in 2005 when he overturned a 2 set deficit against Roger Federer in the ATP End of Year Championships, a remarkable feat when considering where Federer was in his career.
Nalbandian remains the best player I have seen in my lifetime that failed to win a Grand Slam, which is a real disappointment considering how close he came in a couple of different tournaments.
He should have won the US Open in 2003 when leading Andy Roddick 2-0 in the Semi Final before the American fought through and went on to win his only Grand Slam title.
Nalbandian was also a Finalist at Wimbledon in 2002, perhaps a little too early in his career at that time, and in 2004 he was the big favourite to beat Gaston Gaudio in the Semi Final at the French Open before losing to the eventual winner.
Time looks to have passed Nalbandian by when it comes to a singles Grand Slam win, but I will be cheering on Argentina in the Davis Cup and hope he has one more big achievement left in him. Twice he has helped lead Argentina to the Final, but this year he will have the additional support of Juan Martin Del Potro.
He still remains an exceptional player to watch and I have been fortunate to see him in action live on a couple of occasions this year- hopefully he will be back in the UK for tournaments next season too.
Now on to the Picks:
Double; Radek Stepanek vs Wayne Odesnik and Jurgen Melzer vs Donald Young: There is a lot of choice today from the ATP tournament in Washington, but there were too many question marks for me to make too many picks.
This is one double I picked out from the coupon which I feel should come in- Radek Stepanek was serving very well in his 1st Round win over Philipp Petzschner and perhaps should have won the match in straight sets and he faces a player that has only returned to the tour in recent months and comes into the tournament as a 'Lucky Loser'.
Wayne Odesnik has recently won a Challenger event on the hard courts but was beaten in straight sets by Rajeev Ram in the qualifying here and Stepanek represents a significant step up of recent competition.
Stepanek is coming to the end of his career but he remains competitive and has had a good time on the hard courts in previous years. He also holds a winning record over Odesnik in the head to head and I think his chances have been underestimated by the layers.
Jurgen Melzer has not had a great season following last years exploits and he also had the additional problem of having to move from the clay to the hard courts. These first matches on a new surface can be tough, but I think Melzer can take down the underachieving Donald Young.
Young took advantage of an overmatched opponent in the 1st Round, but recent defeats to Michael Russell and Alex Bogdanovic do not really inspire confidence in him.
Melzer has also won both previous meetings with Young, one of those on a hard court, and I think the Austrian will be too strong here.
Ryan Harrison vs Victor Troicki: Ryan Harrison has played a lot of tennis, with success, in the last couple of weeks and was forced to go the distance in beating Mischa Zverev yesterday. However, he plays an opponent that has only played a couple of Davis Cup ties since Wimbledon and he could catch him cold.
Troicki is having a good season and it took Novak Djokovic to stop his runs at Miami and Indian Wells earlier this year. He didn't have a great Summer Swing here last year and was beaten in this Round in Washington when falling to Mardy Fish.
Harrison has not beaten someone of the level of Troicki over the last couple of weeks, but I will have a small interest that he can cause a surprise against an undercooked opponent.
Sofia Arvidsson vs Alberta Brianti: This is a pick for the minimum stakes but I think the wrong player has been set as the underdog in the match.
I think Alberta Brianti has been set as the favourite after she beat Flavia Pennetta in the last Round, but I actually think Sofia Arvidsson has the better hard court pedigree.
Brianti has lost matches against Sophie Ferguson, Heather Watson and Noppawan Lertcheewakarn on the hard courts this year and she was beaten in the 1st Round of a Challenger tournament in the Bronx last year, a tournament in which her opponent reached the Final.
Arvidsson has won both previous matches against Brianti in straight sets, and that includes a win on the hard courts in Miami last year.
Arvidsson is not someone to back with any kind of certainty but, as I said above, I think she should be the favourite in this match.
MY PICKS: Double; Radek Stepanek and Jurgen Melzer @ 1.94 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison @ 2.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Sofia Arvidsson @ 2.18 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
WEEKLY UPDATE WASHINGTON/SAN DIEGO: + 2.5 Units
His biggest moment came in 2005 when he overturned a 2 set deficit against Roger Federer in the ATP End of Year Championships, a remarkable feat when considering where Federer was in his career.
Nalbandian remains the best player I have seen in my lifetime that failed to win a Grand Slam, which is a real disappointment considering how close he came in a couple of different tournaments.
He should have won the US Open in 2003 when leading Andy Roddick 2-0 in the Semi Final before the American fought through and went on to win his only Grand Slam title.
Nalbandian was also a Finalist at Wimbledon in 2002, perhaps a little too early in his career at that time, and in 2004 he was the big favourite to beat Gaston Gaudio in the Semi Final at the French Open before losing to the eventual winner.
Time looks to have passed Nalbandian by when it comes to a singles Grand Slam win, but I will be cheering on Argentina in the Davis Cup and hope he has one more big achievement left in him. Twice he has helped lead Argentina to the Final, but this year he will have the additional support of Juan Martin Del Potro.
He still remains an exceptional player to watch and I have been fortunate to see him in action live on a couple of occasions this year- hopefully he will be back in the UK for tournaments next season too.
Now on to the Picks:
Double; Radek Stepanek vs Wayne Odesnik and Jurgen Melzer vs Donald Young: There is a lot of choice today from the ATP tournament in Washington, but there were too many question marks for me to make too many picks.
This is one double I picked out from the coupon which I feel should come in- Radek Stepanek was serving very well in his 1st Round win over Philipp Petzschner and perhaps should have won the match in straight sets and he faces a player that has only returned to the tour in recent months and comes into the tournament as a 'Lucky Loser'.
Wayne Odesnik has recently won a Challenger event on the hard courts but was beaten in straight sets by Rajeev Ram in the qualifying here and Stepanek represents a significant step up of recent competition.
Stepanek is coming to the end of his career but he remains competitive and has had a good time on the hard courts in previous years. He also holds a winning record over Odesnik in the head to head and I think his chances have been underestimated by the layers.
Jurgen Melzer has not had a great season following last years exploits and he also had the additional problem of having to move from the clay to the hard courts. These first matches on a new surface can be tough, but I think Melzer can take down the underachieving Donald Young.
Young took advantage of an overmatched opponent in the 1st Round, but recent defeats to Michael Russell and Alex Bogdanovic do not really inspire confidence in him.
Melzer has also won both previous meetings with Young, one of those on a hard court, and I think the Austrian will be too strong here.
Ryan Harrison vs Victor Troicki: Ryan Harrison has played a lot of tennis, with success, in the last couple of weeks and was forced to go the distance in beating Mischa Zverev yesterday. However, he plays an opponent that has only played a couple of Davis Cup ties since Wimbledon and he could catch him cold.
Troicki is having a good season and it took Novak Djokovic to stop his runs at Miami and Indian Wells earlier this year. He didn't have a great Summer Swing here last year and was beaten in this Round in Washington when falling to Mardy Fish.
Harrison has not beaten someone of the level of Troicki over the last couple of weeks, but I will have a small interest that he can cause a surprise against an undercooked opponent.
Sofia Arvidsson vs Alberta Brianti: This is a pick for the minimum stakes but I think the wrong player has been set as the underdog in the match.
I think Alberta Brianti has been set as the favourite after she beat Flavia Pennetta in the last Round, but I actually think Sofia Arvidsson has the better hard court pedigree.
Brianti has lost matches against Sophie Ferguson, Heather Watson and Noppawan Lertcheewakarn on the hard courts this year and she was beaten in the 1st Round of a Challenger tournament in the Bronx last year, a tournament in which her opponent reached the Final.
Arvidsson has won both previous matches against Brianti in straight sets, and that includes a win on the hard courts in Miami last year.
Arvidsson is not someone to back with any kind of certainty but, as I said above, I think she should be the favourite in this match.
MY PICKS: Double; Radek Stepanek and Jurgen Melzer @ 1.94 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison @ 2.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Sofia Arvidsson @ 2.18 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
WEEKLY UPDATE WASHINGTON/SAN DIEGO: + 2.5 Units
Friday, 29 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 29th Stanford and LA
Please dont ask me what went wrong with Alejandro Falla last night because I was left scratching my head at his performance and am not sure whether it was down to Falla being terrible or Thomaz Bellucci playing well.
That means I will be taking a watching brief when Bellucci takes on Alex Bogomolov tonight to see where the Brazilian, who has struggled on the hard courts over the last 18 months, is with his game.
It was more doom and gloom for me when Victoria Azarenka lost from a set up in her 2nd Round match with Marina Erakovic- Azarenka took to her twitter page to say that she doesn't know what went wrong with her game.
Now on to the Picks:
Maria Sharapova vs Serena Williams: I have picked the form player here as she is the underdog and I am not quite sure if Serena Williams is back to her best after being taken to 3 sets yesterday by Maria Kirilenko.
Serena has played in Stanford twice before and it is telling that she is yet to go beyond the Semi Final so the tournament is clearly used to perhaps fine tune her game a little before the US Open at the end of next month.
On the other hand, Maria Sharapova was the Runner Up here last year and has played plenty more tennis than Williams in the last 12 months while reaching the Semi Final at the French Open and finishing as Runner Up at Wimbledon in the last 3 months.
The head to head is clearly in favour of Serena Williams, but I just think the lack of tennis and the fact Sharapova has been playing well makes it hard for me to see the Russian as the underdog here.
Ryan Harrison vs Yen-Hsun Lu: I am going to take the American youngster who is playing the best tennis of his career so far to come through and reach another Semi Final on the ATP tour following his efforts in Atlanta last week.
I think the prices are a little closer than they may have been because of Yen-Hsun Lu's impressive win over Marcos Baghdatis, but you could excuse Baghdatis for a lack of tennis and already having a tough time on the hard courts this season. The fact Lu had played in Atlanta last week was also an advantage.
Harrison has looked good this week, and showed glimpses of some real talent last week while I havent quite shaken the belief that Lu is on the other side of the hill and coming down the rankings.
MY PICKS: Maria Sharapova @ 2.35 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE STANFORD/LA: - 4.18 Units
That means I will be taking a watching brief when Bellucci takes on Alex Bogomolov tonight to see where the Brazilian, who has struggled on the hard courts over the last 18 months, is with his game.
It was more doom and gloom for me when Victoria Azarenka lost from a set up in her 2nd Round match with Marina Erakovic- Azarenka took to her twitter page to say that she doesn't know what went wrong with her game.
Now on to the Picks:
Maria Sharapova vs Serena Williams: I have picked the form player here as she is the underdog and I am not quite sure if Serena Williams is back to her best after being taken to 3 sets yesterday by Maria Kirilenko.
Serena has played in Stanford twice before and it is telling that she is yet to go beyond the Semi Final so the tournament is clearly used to perhaps fine tune her game a little before the US Open at the end of next month.
On the other hand, Maria Sharapova was the Runner Up here last year and has played plenty more tennis than Williams in the last 12 months while reaching the Semi Final at the French Open and finishing as Runner Up at Wimbledon in the last 3 months.
The head to head is clearly in favour of Serena Williams, but I just think the lack of tennis and the fact Sharapova has been playing well makes it hard for me to see the Russian as the underdog here.
Ryan Harrison vs Yen-Hsun Lu: I am going to take the American youngster who is playing the best tennis of his career so far to come through and reach another Semi Final on the ATP tour following his efforts in Atlanta last week.
I think the prices are a little closer than they may have been because of Yen-Hsun Lu's impressive win over Marcos Baghdatis, but you could excuse Baghdatis for a lack of tennis and already having a tough time on the hard courts this season. The fact Lu had played in Atlanta last week was also an advantage.
Harrison has looked good this week, and showed glimpses of some real talent last week while I havent quite shaken the belief that Lu is on the other side of the hill and coming down the rankings.
MY PICKS: Maria Sharapova @ 2.35 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE STANFORD/LA: - 4.18 Units
Wednesday, 27 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 27th Stanford and LA
Not a good start to the week in all honesty, with picks falling by the wayside and some results being disappointingly close to going my way and then falling apart.
I took the morning in Europe off as I didn't have any strong feelings from the matches at Gstaad, while I left Juan Carlos Ferrero alone in Umag in the hope my outright pick can win his match with Ivan Ljubicic and really open up the draw for a run to the Final for a 3rd consecutive year.
Hopefully the extra time to compose myself will make the next couple of picks from Stanford and LA end in a much more positive manner than they have been so far:
Double; Dominika Cibulkova vs Christina McHale and Maria Sharapova vs Daniela Hantuchova: Dominika Cibulkova is having a good season and could see herself making a real move up the rankings after a very disappointing Summer last season. She had a solid win over Kimiko Date-Krumm in the 1st Round and has the powerful game that should be well suited to the American hard courts.
Christina McHale is a tough proposition as she begins to improve her game but she has only won consecutive matches on the main tour on 2 occasions this season and was a 2nd Round loser here in Stanford last season.
Maria Sharapova has won 7 matches in a row against Daniela Hantuchova and has been one of the form players on the WTA Tour for around 3 months now. Hantuchova is no easy pass for the top players this season, but I expect Sharapova will eventually have too much for her counterpart and come through.
Double; Ryan Harrison vs Michael Russell and Ernests Gulbis vs Daniel Kosakowski: Ryan Harrison has been in fine form over the last 10 days, reaching the Final in Atlanta and coming from a set behind to beat Richard Berankis in the 1st Round here and is now becoming more comfortable in main tour matches.
Michael Russell is perhaps on the other side of the hill to Harrison now and has lost the last meeting with his young compratiot, a 3 set defeat on the hard courts in Hawaii. The match tonight may also go the distance but I will expect the younger man to get through.
Ernests Gulbis should have too much experience and talent for Daniel Kosakowski, a young UCLA attendee, although it can be risky backing the talented Latvian at a short price.
However, he should have the consistency to get through, most likely in straight sets.
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games vs Yen-Hsun Lu: Marcos Baghdatis has not had the best time on the American hard courts so far this season with two 1st Round losses at Miami and Indian Wells, but last Summer was a different story as he got through to the Final in Washington and the Semi Final in Cincinnati.
He has the game very suited to the faster surfaces and he has played well in recent weeks. He should have too much for Yen-Hsun Lu, a player that has struggled a little bit this season.
Lu was destroyed by John Isner last week in Atlanta and, although having a good win over Robby Ginepri in the last Round, he has struggled for most of the season.
Baghdatis has won their only previous meeting in 2009, but I think Lu has slipped a little since then and the Cypriot should be good enough to come through.
James Blake-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 20.5 games: Juan Martin Del Potro is my outright pick of the week from this tournament but he wont have it easy against a rejuvenated James Blake that performed solidly in Atlanta last week following on from a Challenger tour win.
Blake and Del Potro also took part in a 5 set match in Australia last year and this is a pick that can be brought in with a straight sets win as long as the sets are tight.
They key to the pick may well be how James Blake serves- if he can perform as he has been, it is possible that we can see at least 1 tie break here and that may be just enough to ensure the over comes in.
MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova and Maria Sharapova @ 1.96 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison and Ernests Gulbis @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
James Blake-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 20.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE UMAG/GSTAAD: - 1.94 Units
WEEKLY UPDATE STANFORD/LA: - 6 Units
I took the morning in Europe off as I didn't have any strong feelings from the matches at Gstaad, while I left Juan Carlos Ferrero alone in Umag in the hope my outright pick can win his match with Ivan Ljubicic and really open up the draw for a run to the Final for a 3rd consecutive year.
Hopefully the extra time to compose myself will make the next couple of picks from Stanford and LA end in a much more positive manner than they have been so far:
Double; Dominika Cibulkova vs Christina McHale and Maria Sharapova vs Daniela Hantuchova: Dominika Cibulkova is having a good season and could see herself making a real move up the rankings after a very disappointing Summer last season. She had a solid win over Kimiko Date-Krumm in the 1st Round and has the powerful game that should be well suited to the American hard courts.
Christina McHale is a tough proposition as she begins to improve her game but she has only won consecutive matches on the main tour on 2 occasions this season and was a 2nd Round loser here in Stanford last season.
Maria Sharapova has won 7 matches in a row against Daniela Hantuchova and has been one of the form players on the WTA Tour for around 3 months now. Hantuchova is no easy pass for the top players this season, but I expect Sharapova will eventually have too much for her counterpart and come through.
Double; Ryan Harrison vs Michael Russell and Ernests Gulbis vs Daniel Kosakowski: Ryan Harrison has been in fine form over the last 10 days, reaching the Final in Atlanta and coming from a set behind to beat Richard Berankis in the 1st Round here and is now becoming more comfortable in main tour matches.
Michael Russell is perhaps on the other side of the hill to Harrison now and has lost the last meeting with his young compratiot, a 3 set defeat on the hard courts in Hawaii. The match tonight may also go the distance but I will expect the younger man to get through.
Ernests Gulbis should have too much experience and talent for Daniel Kosakowski, a young UCLA attendee, although it can be risky backing the talented Latvian at a short price.
However, he should have the consistency to get through, most likely in straight sets.
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games vs Yen-Hsun Lu: Marcos Baghdatis has not had the best time on the American hard courts so far this season with two 1st Round losses at Miami and Indian Wells, but last Summer was a different story as he got through to the Final in Washington and the Semi Final in Cincinnati.
He has the game very suited to the faster surfaces and he has played well in recent weeks. He should have too much for Yen-Hsun Lu, a player that has struggled a little bit this season.
Lu was destroyed by John Isner last week in Atlanta and, although having a good win over Robby Ginepri in the last Round, he has struggled for most of the season.
Baghdatis has won their only previous meeting in 2009, but I think Lu has slipped a little since then and the Cypriot should be good enough to come through.
James Blake-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 20.5 games: Juan Martin Del Potro is my outright pick of the week from this tournament but he wont have it easy against a rejuvenated James Blake that performed solidly in Atlanta last week following on from a Challenger tour win.
Blake and Del Potro also took part in a 5 set match in Australia last year and this is a pick that can be brought in with a straight sets win as long as the sets are tight.
They key to the pick may well be how James Blake serves- if he can perform as he has been, it is possible that we can see at least 1 tie break here and that may be just enough to ensure the over comes in.
MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova and Maria Sharapova @ 1.96 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison and Ernests Gulbis @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
James Blake-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 20.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE UMAG/GSTAAD: - 1.94 Units
WEEKLY UPDATE STANFORD/LA: - 6 Units
Saturday, 23 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 23rd Atlanta Semi Finals
I had a strong day in Atlanta yesterday as all 3 picks came in to push the profits up for the week.
Mardy Fish is now 1 win away from reaching the Final and bringing in part 1 of my outright picks. I had Fish e/w at the start of the week and he is now rightly the favourite to retain his title. Ryan Harrison is no pushover, but I expect the top ranked American to put the rising star in his place here and progress through to the Final.
The other Semi Final is more of a pick 'em than I think many feel it will be. John Isner destroyed Yen-Hsun Lu yesterday, but Gilles Muller is a different sort of threat and one that can surprise the American in front of his local support.
Now on to the Picks:
John Isner-Gilles Muller Over 22.5 games: As I said above, I actually think this is a tougher match for Isner than some may think and I do believe we will see a tight contest between the two. They actually met in the 2nd Round last year here in Atlanta which saw Isner come through in 3 sets (4-6, 7-6, 7-6).
The good thing about this total is the same as yesterdays match between Muller and Kevin Anderson- a 7-6, 6-4 scoreline will cover the spread.
Both men have been serving well and it would not surprise me if this actually goes the distance this afternoon.
Mardy Fish - 4.5 games vs Ryan Harrison: I expect Fish will have too much for Harrison in the course of this game and will be able to power through him after a tight first set.
This can be covered with an early break in both sets as long as Fish is serving first. However, I am picking it because I think Harrison does give up chances on the serve and I can see Fish winning one set with a double break and that should be good enough to see him through.
Fish's overall game should be good enough and he has plenty of motivation knowing he can keep his seeded position high at the US Open with a couple of good performances here in Atlanta and in Los Angeles next week.
MY PICKS: John Isner-Gilles Muller Over 22.5 games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 13.38 Units (All picks updated)
Mardy Fish is now 1 win away from reaching the Final and bringing in part 1 of my outright picks. I had Fish e/w at the start of the week and he is now rightly the favourite to retain his title. Ryan Harrison is no pushover, but I expect the top ranked American to put the rising star in his place here and progress through to the Final.
The other Semi Final is more of a pick 'em than I think many feel it will be. John Isner destroyed Yen-Hsun Lu yesterday, but Gilles Muller is a different sort of threat and one that can surprise the American in front of his local support.
Now on to the Picks:
John Isner-Gilles Muller Over 22.5 games: As I said above, I actually think this is a tougher match for Isner than some may think and I do believe we will see a tight contest between the two. They actually met in the 2nd Round last year here in Atlanta which saw Isner come through in 3 sets (4-6, 7-6, 7-6).
The good thing about this total is the same as yesterdays match between Muller and Kevin Anderson- a 7-6, 6-4 scoreline will cover the spread.
Both men have been serving well and it would not surprise me if this actually goes the distance this afternoon.
Mardy Fish - 4.5 games vs Ryan Harrison: I expect Fish will have too much for Harrison in the course of this game and will be able to power through him after a tight first set.
This can be covered with an early break in both sets as long as Fish is serving first. However, I am picking it because I think Harrison does give up chances on the serve and I can see Fish winning one set with a double break and that should be good enough to see him through.
Fish's overall game should be good enough and he has plenty of motivation knowing he can keep his seeded position high at the US Open with a couple of good performances here in Atlanta and in Los Angeles next week.
MY PICKS: John Isner-Gilles Muller Over 22.5 games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 13.38 Units (All picks updated)
Thursday, 21 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 21st ATP Atlanta
It was another good day at Hamburg for the picks and all 3 came in during the afternoon session. That makes the picks 6 for 6 in the last 2 days at the German tournament, while the Atlanta picks have been bringing in a profit themselves.
John Isner won his match last night but he looked a little shaky and I am much happier being on Mardy Fish outright. In saying that, Fish faces arguably his biggest test before the Final when he meets Nicolas Mahut in the evening session. Lleyton Hewitt is still a danger, but I would expect Fish to deal with the veteran Australian too if they do meet later on in the week.
Now on to the Picks:
Xavier Malisse vs Ryan Harrison: I was going to give this match a miss at the start of the week, but the odds on Xavier Malisse have reached levels where they make an interest for me.
Ryan Harrison is the big hope of American tennis but he is still young and learning his craft. I have to say I have been very impressed with his tenacity, as shown in defeats to David Ferrer at Wimbledon and even in the manner of his defeat to Robin Soderling at the French Open.
He had a very good run at Indian Wells when reaching the 4th Round before falling to Roger Federer, but overall has not quite lived up to the expectation when playing on the main tour.
And he is not playing a nobody- Xavier Malisse is a solid pro who is very accustomed to playing on the faster surfaces. He had a strong American hard court Summer last year, reaching the Quarter Finals here in Atlanta and also the Semi Final in Washington.
I expected Malisse to go off at around 1.5, so the offer at Pinnacle looks too good to ignore.
Lleyton Hewitt - 4.5 games vs Rajeev Ram: A few years ago, I would have had full faith in Lleyton Hewitt to negate the big serving opponent and grind out a break in each set to win this match. However, injuries have taken their toll on the Aussie and he finds it a bit harder to play his game and has to give up on more points than he used to.
In saying that, I still expect him to expose this limited opponent today. Hewitt has not had a lot of tennis in the last few months, but there was plenty to like about his performance when losing to Robin Soderling at Wimbledon and he has always liked the American hard court swing.
Rajeev Ram was a surprise victor in the 1st Round over Grigor Dimitrov after qualifying for this event, but it was only last week that he was beaten handily by Dudi Sela in a Challenger event and I cant help but think Hewitt is a level above him even at this stage of his career.
Last season, Ram was beaten fairly easily by Andy Roddick in the 2nd Round and I think Hewitt can also progress here with a break in each set to cover the spread. I will be looking at a 6-4, 6-3 scoreline for Hewitt.
MY PICKS: Xavier Malisse @ 1.70 Pinnacle (3 Units)
Lleyton Hewitt - 4.5 games @ 2.25 10Bet (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 14.88 Units (Includes all pick results from July 21st at Hamburg)
John Isner won his match last night but he looked a little shaky and I am much happier being on Mardy Fish outright. In saying that, Fish faces arguably his biggest test before the Final when he meets Nicolas Mahut in the evening session. Lleyton Hewitt is still a danger, but I would expect Fish to deal with the veteran Australian too if they do meet later on in the week.
Now on to the Picks:
Xavier Malisse vs Ryan Harrison: I was going to give this match a miss at the start of the week, but the odds on Xavier Malisse have reached levels where they make an interest for me.
Ryan Harrison is the big hope of American tennis but he is still young and learning his craft. I have to say I have been very impressed with his tenacity, as shown in defeats to David Ferrer at Wimbledon and even in the manner of his defeat to Robin Soderling at the French Open.
He had a very good run at Indian Wells when reaching the 4th Round before falling to Roger Federer, but overall has not quite lived up to the expectation when playing on the main tour.
And he is not playing a nobody- Xavier Malisse is a solid pro who is very accustomed to playing on the faster surfaces. He had a strong American hard court Summer last year, reaching the Quarter Finals here in Atlanta and also the Semi Final in Washington.
I expected Malisse to go off at around 1.5, so the offer at Pinnacle looks too good to ignore.
Lleyton Hewitt - 4.5 games vs Rajeev Ram: A few years ago, I would have had full faith in Lleyton Hewitt to negate the big serving opponent and grind out a break in each set to win this match. However, injuries have taken their toll on the Aussie and he finds it a bit harder to play his game and has to give up on more points than he used to.
In saying that, I still expect him to expose this limited opponent today. Hewitt has not had a lot of tennis in the last few months, but there was plenty to like about his performance when losing to Robin Soderling at Wimbledon and he has always liked the American hard court swing.
Rajeev Ram was a surprise victor in the 1st Round over Grigor Dimitrov after qualifying for this event, but it was only last week that he was beaten handily by Dudi Sela in a Challenger event and I cant help but think Hewitt is a level above him even at this stage of his career.
Last season, Ram was beaten fairly easily by Andy Roddick in the 2nd Round and I think Hewitt can also progress here with a break in each set to cover the spread. I will be looking at a 6-4, 6-3 scoreline for Hewitt.
MY PICKS: Xavier Malisse @ 1.70 Pinnacle (3 Units)
Lleyton Hewitt - 4.5 games @ 2.25 10Bet (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 14.88 Units (Includes all pick results from July 21st at Hamburg)
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