Tennis Picks July 27th Stanford and LA

Not a good start to the week in all honesty, with picks falling by the wayside and some results being disappointingly close to going my way and then falling apart.

I took the morning in Europe off as I didn't have any strong feelings from the matches at Gstaad, while I left Juan Carlos Ferrero alone in Umag in the hope my outright pick can win his match with Ivan Ljubicic and really open up the draw for a run to the Final for a 3rd consecutive year.

Hopefully the extra time to compose myself will make the next couple of picks from Stanford and LA end in a much more positive manner than they have been so far:

Double; Dominika Cibulkova vs Christina McHale and Maria Sharapova vs Daniela Hantuchova: Dominika Cibulkova is having a good season and could see herself making a real move up the rankings after a very disappointing Summer last season. She had a solid win over Kimiko Date-Krumm in the 1st Round and has the powerful game that should be well suited to the American hard courts.

Christina McHale is a tough proposition as she begins to improve her game but she has only won consecutive matches on the main tour on 2 occasions this season and was a 2nd Round loser here in Stanford last season.

Maria Sharapova has won 7 matches in a row against Daniela Hantuchova and has been one of the form players on the WTA Tour for around 3 months now. Hantuchova is no easy pass for the top players this season, but I expect Sharapova will eventually have too much for her counterpart and come through.


Double; Ryan Harrison vs Michael Russell and Ernests Gulbis vs Daniel Kosakowski: Ryan Harrison has been in fine form over the last 10 days, reaching the Final in Atlanta and coming from a set behind to beat Richard Berankis in the 1st Round here and is now becoming more comfortable in main tour matches.

Michael Russell is perhaps on the other side of the hill to Harrison now and has lost the last meeting with his young compratiot, a 3 set defeat on the hard courts in Hawaii. The match tonight may also go the distance but I will expect the younger man to get through.

Ernests Gulbis should have too much experience and talent for Daniel Kosakowski, a young UCLA attendee, although it can be risky backing the talented Latvian at a short price.

However, he should have the consistency to get through, most likely in straight sets.


Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games vs Yen-Hsun Lu: Marcos Baghdatis has not had the best time on the American hard courts so far this season with two 1st Round losses at Miami and Indian Wells, but last Summer was a different story as he got through to the Final in Washington and the Semi Final in Cincinnati.

He has the game very suited to the faster surfaces and he has played well in recent weeks. He should have too much for Yen-Hsun Lu, a player that has struggled a little bit this season.

Lu was destroyed by John Isner last week in Atlanta and, although having a good win over Robby Ginepri in the last Round, he has struggled for most of the season.

Baghdatis has won their only previous meeting in 2009, but I think Lu has slipped a little since then and the Cypriot should be good enough to come through.


James Blake-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 20.5 games: Juan Martin Del Potro is my outright pick of the week from this tournament but he wont have it easy against a rejuvenated James Blake that performed solidly in Atlanta last week following on from a Challenger tour win.

Blake and Del Potro also took part in a 5 set match in Australia last year and this is a pick that can be brought in with a straight sets win as long as the sets are tight.

They key to the pick may well be how James Blake serves- if he can perform as he has been, it is possible that we can see at least 1 tie break here and that may be just enough to ensure the over comes in.


MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova and Maria Sharapova @ 1.96 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison and Ernests Gulbis @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
James Blake-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 20.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)




WEEKLY UPDATE UMAG/GSTAAD: - 1.94 Units


WEEKLY UPDATE STANFORD/LA: - 6 Units

Wimbledon Day 8 Picks- Women's Quarter Finals

Awful. Disgraceful. Disappointing... These are some of the words I used to describe my picks from yesterday in my worst day of the tournament so far. Anything that could have gone wrong did go wrong and we have lost a little of the profit we had made during the first week of the tournament.

To make matters worse, my outright picks from the Men's draw are looking in serious trouble as it seems there is a real chance that Rafael Nadal will be forced to withdraw from the tournament. I am hoping he has just got heavy bruising and the shock of the injury affected him more than anything else during his won over Juan Martin Del Potro and I will be keeping my fingers crossed that the MRI Scan comes back negative.

One bright note of the day was the Maria Sharapova pick's position has been strengthened as Serena Williams, Venus Williams and Caroline Wozniacki all exited the tournament on Miserable Monday (I have dubbed it that for this year after the picks seemingly all fell apart). There is still a long way to go in the tournament, but even Sharapova must feel this is her best chance to add to her Grand Slam tally.


Now on to Day 8 Picks as the Women's Quarter Finals take centre stage:


Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games vs Dominika Cibulkova: Maria Sharapova has been in good form over the last 6 weeks or so and she was a trendy pick to win the tournament before it began. She is serving pretty well while her groundies look in good shape- they will have to be performing if she wants to get through this match.

Dominika Cibulkova surprised Caroline Wozniacki in the last Round by overpowering the Number 1 seed. The Slovakian's first serve is decent enough, but she can sometimes lack consistency with her groundstrokes and her forehand is particularly vulnerable to breaking down.

This should be a big hitting game but Sharapova has the edge in serve and groundstrokes that should help her overcome this challenge. Cibulkova is definitely the better mover, but she does present more opportunities for her opponents to break her serve and that may make all the difference.

They are tied 2-2 in the head to head, with Cibulkova winning 2 in a row, but all matches have been played on clay courts. The grass should favour Sharapova more.


Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games vs Tamira Paszek: Victoria Azarenka is a real threat to win this tournament as her penetrating groundstrokes work effectively on this surface. She has come through the draw with little problems outside of Daniela Hantuchova, and may just be ready to make her Grand Slam breakthrough.

Tamira Paszek is having a dream tournament, fighting through the first 4 Rounds. Paszek has been forced to go the distance in 3 of those Rounds and I just feel she has taken advantage of a weak section of the draw.

She has surpassed her run here from 2007 when reaching the 4th Round, but I just feel this is a challenge too far for the young player.

Azarenka is far too consistent as far as I am concerned and should take advantage of a player that had won just 2 matches on the main WTA Tour before the last 2 weeks at Eastbourne and Wimbledon.

Azarenka also holds a 1-0 head to head record when beating Paszek in straight sets in Montreal. That match took place in 2008 and I feel Azarenka is markedly improved since then and will make the Semi Finals with a little room to spare.


MY PICKS: Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)


TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 10.33 Units (- 5.18 Units Day 7)