Both the women's and men's events will be decided by the top two seeds in the draw this year and the Sunday has been reserved for the women's Final between Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka.
There is no doubt in my mind that Serena Williams is capable of wiping the floor with any opponent she plays on any given day and she is going to begin this Final as a big favourite considering the form she has shown in the last two weeks.
If she brings that into the Final, Serena should win this one very comfortably, especially if Victoria Azarenka serves as poorly as she had over the last few matches. If Azarenka can improve that area of her game, she has shown she can match Williams off the ground and some of their matches over the last year have been close with the odd blowout for Serena thrown in.
Azarenka has power and accuracy, but most important of all, she has the mental belief that she is capable of hanging around with Williams and all of those factors could make this a closer Final than some people may think. Of course, Azarenka cannot be as generous in allowing her serve to fall as she has been in the last couple of matches because she just won't get a lot of chances on Williams' serve if the American is serving as well as she had.
I also am expecting Serena to have some nerves as she knows the significance of winning more Grand Slams to cement her legacy as one of the best, if not the best, female player to have ever played, while she will also want to be the player that picked up 2 Grand Slam tittles this year. A loss means Azarenka is the player with 2 Grand Slams to finish 2013 and there is the feeling that the World Number 2 has unfinished business having served for the title a year ago.
Azarenka has won the last 2 matches on the hard courts between the players and I do think she is mentally focused on winning this match- whether she has enough quality over two/three hours to actually get through is another matter, but taking 4.5 games on the underdog looks a lot considering how close their matches on the hard courts have been. She has to serve better, in case you haven't gathered that from this post above, but I believe this is the match Azarenka has been focusing on for two weeks and I expect a full performance from her.
I hope she can pull the win as my outright choice at the start of the tournament, but I believe Azarenka can make a Final of this and nerves to perhaps affect Serena if the World Number 2 can stick with her in the early goings.
MY PICK: Victoria Azarenka + 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
US Open Update: 29-38, - 9.22 Units (112 Units Staked, - 8.23% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Victoria Azarenka. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Victoria Azarenka. Show all posts
Sunday, 8 September 2013
Saturday, 26 January 2013
Australian Open Woman's Final Pick (January 26th)
Victoria Azarenka - 2.5 games v Na Li: This is a very close Final to call and it is no surprise that the layers are having trouble separating them at the moment.
It is going to be interesting to see how Victoria Azarenka is going to react to the last couple of days when she has been heavily criticised by almost every single person involved in tennis. Her 'injury time out' has been the big talking point in Australia and there is little doubt that the Melbourne crowd are not going to be on her side in this one.
We saw how they reacted to Tomas Berdych last season when he refused to shake Nicolas Almagro's hand after their match in the Fourth Round and I believe the crowd are going to be fully behind Na Li in this one.
The big point is whether Azarenka is going to come out with the siege mentality she has often displayed (mainly against the criticism of her 'grunts' during points on court) or whether she is going to crumble under the weight of pressure the last couple of days would have provided.
I also think you have to make your own mind up about whether Azarenka was really injured on Thursday or whether she had the nerves- I believe it was the latter and she will be absolutely fine to come out in this Final and play her usual game.
While I have said a lot about Azarenka, being the main talking point of the last couple of days, Na Li can't be underestimated as she has been playing some exceptional tennis, particularly in her Quarter Final and Semi Final wins over Agnieszka Radwanska and Maria Sharapova respectively.
This is some of the best tennis Li has played since winning the French Open in 2011 and there is no doubt that she is confident she can get the better of Azarenka in this one.
However, she has lost 4 matches in a row against the World Number 1, including all 3 matches in 2012, and that is a tough mental hurdle to overcome. Some of their matches have been close, but I think the difference here is that Azarenka is the better return of serve and her movement is also a little better than the older Li.
Li also doesn't have the variation that can trouble Azarenka at times and I think her groundstrokes are more likely to break down of the two players. It could be a tough three set tussle, but I do think the World Number 1 will rubber stamp that position by retaining her title from a season ago.
MY PICK: Victoria Azarenka - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 16-26, - 14.12 Units (76 Units Staked, - 18.6% Yield)
It is going to be interesting to see how Victoria Azarenka is going to react to the last couple of days when she has been heavily criticised by almost every single person involved in tennis. Her 'injury time out' has been the big talking point in Australia and there is little doubt that the Melbourne crowd are not going to be on her side in this one.
We saw how they reacted to Tomas Berdych last season when he refused to shake Nicolas Almagro's hand after their match in the Fourth Round and I believe the crowd are going to be fully behind Na Li in this one.
The big point is whether Azarenka is going to come out with the siege mentality she has often displayed (mainly against the criticism of her 'grunts' during points on court) or whether she is going to crumble under the weight of pressure the last couple of days would have provided.
I also think you have to make your own mind up about whether Azarenka was really injured on Thursday or whether she had the nerves- I believe it was the latter and she will be absolutely fine to come out in this Final and play her usual game.
While I have said a lot about Azarenka, being the main talking point of the last couple of days, Na Li can't be underestimated as she has been playing some exceptional tennis, particularly in her Quarter Final and Semi Final wins over Agnieszka Radwanska and Maria Sharapova respectively.
This is some of the best tennis Li has played since winning the French Open in 2011 and there is no doubt that she is confident she can get the better of Azarenka in this one.
However, she has lost 4 matches in a row against the World Number 1, including all 3 matches in 2012, and that is a tough mental hurdle to overcome. Some of their matches have been close, but I think the difference here is that Azarenka is the better return of serve and her movement is also a little better than the older Li.
Li also doesn't have the variation that can trouble Azarenka at times and I think her groundstrokes are more likely to break down of the two players. It could be a tough three set tussle, but I do think the World Number 1 will rubber stamp that position by retaining her title from a season ago.
MY PICK: Victoria Azarenka - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 16-26, - 14.12 Units (76 Units Staked, - 18.6% Yield)
Saturday, 28 January 2012
Australian Open Women's Final Live Updates
If you keep refreshing this thread, the updates should come up... Slightly later than planned, as the match has started but let's get it going...
Victoria Azarenka v Maria Sharapova
Victoria Azarenka v Maria Sharapova
Victoria Azarenka *2-2 Maria Sharapova
I just saw the end of the last hold for Azarenka, and she takes that form into the next game by breaking Maria Sharapova to love... It was a big hold in the game before as it settles someone down into the match, although she was helped out massively by some unforced errors from the Russian.
Game on
Victoria Azarenka 3-2* Maria Sharapova
Azarenka follows up the break with a very good service game to hold to 15... It was very important that she got on the board early and there are plenty of positives for her in that game as she was hitting the ball hard enough to cause Sharapova plenty of problems.
I am looking for her consistency to continue here and keep the pressure on. This is a big service game for Sharapova to stop the mini-run of games against her.
Victoria Azarenka *3-3 Maria Sharapova
Sharapova wins the first point of the game, but another unforced error (9th of the match) and a powerful backhand off the ground gives Azarenka the sniff of another chance.
Strong serving from Sharapova under pressure, not for the first time this tournament, gives her game point, but another unforced error sends the game to deuce.
There seems to be a pattern developing her- Sharapova is struggling to win the point if the point is extended into a rally.
Two big serves from Sharapova to hold to 40.
Victoria Azarenka 4-3* Maria Sharapova
Another one of those tough long rallies is won by Azarenka to move up 30-0... It definitely feels that the younger player has the edge here when the rallies are extended.
I think Sharapova needs to continue playing the aggressive tennis, but the court is not helping her as there is still enough time for Azarenka to play defence and force the Russian to play one more ball.
Pressure point at 30-30 for the server, but Sharapova fails to return the ball and Azarenka goes on to hold serve after yet another extended rally, finishing with a nice lob after bringing Sharapova into the net.
Victoria Azarenka *5-3 Maria Sharapova
After a double fault leaves the game at 15 all, some impressive defence from Sharapova allows her to move ahead in the game.
The first serve is clearly the key for Sharapova here as the second is liable to breaking down during the pressure moments in game- that is backed up with a second double fault to pull the game back to deuce.
It had looked a comfortable service game as she moved 40-15 before that, but all of a sudden Azarenka has a break point... However, Sharapova brings out a big serve and does very well in dictating the rally and putting away the chance.
Sharapova has found her serve at just the right time at key moments throughout this tournament, particularly in the third set of her Semi Final against Petra Kvitova, but the pressure is still on in this game... So much so that Azarenka has earned another break point- the game lasted 9 minutes as Azarenka once again uses the drop shot to full effect and puts away an easy chance at the net to now get a chance at serving for the set.
Victoria Azarenka 6-3, 0-0* Maria Sharapova
This Final has really been one full of quality tennis in my opinion, with both players hitting the ball sweetly and also defending very well.
Azarenka moves through her game and brings up two set points- she only needs one as another unforced error from Sharapova hits the middle of the net. First blood to the youngster and remember that Sharapova has never gone the distance in her previous Grand Slam Finals, whether she has won or lost.
It seems clear to me here that the court is very much favouring Azarenka here as she is the better mover and the better defender of the two players. With it being a lot slower than many hard courts out there, it means Sharapova is having to do MORE to win points and is making too many errors. Sharapova gets to serve first in this set and needs to stay in front on the scoreboard and see whether that creates any additional pressure in Azarenka's mind and gets her to become a little tight.
Victoria Azarenka 6-3, *1-0 Maria Sharapova
A great statistic pops up to say Sharapova is winning just 18% of the baseline rallies- I am assuming that means shots of more than 5 shots... I did have a feeling the extended rallies were going in favour of Azarenka, but not to that extent.
A huge point now for Sharapova, even early in the set, as she goes 15-30 down on serve. It just seems she can't punch through Azarenka in these conditions and that is two break points for Azarenka.
A HUGE mistake from Sharapova on the first one gives her opponent the chance to pass, which is gratefully accepted, and there is big trouble brewing for the Russian... Now how does Azarenka's mind hold up as she gets close to her maiden Grand Slam win.
Victoria Azarenka 6-3, 2-0* Maria Sharapova
A little nervy start to the game for Azarenka as she opens with a double fault and then a mistake to fall 0-30 down... That is all forgotten as Sharapova dumps another simple ball into the net, before Azarenka dictates another punishing rally to move level.
Best return I have seen from Sharapova since the start of the match and she earns a break point- she dictates the point, but seems to take a backward step in the rally that allows Azarenka to take control and force another error.
Far too many mistakes coming from the Sharapova racquet and perhaps the Russian is looking a bit short of ideas as to how to win this match. A couple more errors and Azarenka holds serve.
Victoria Azarenka 6-3, *3-0 Maria Sharapova
I might be speaking far too early, but there seems to be very little thought in what Maria Sharapova wants to do to win this game other than hitting the ball harder and harder... That is leading to more errors on a court where the ball does not fly through.
Unfortunately for Sharapova fans, I don't think she has a lot more to her game other than hitting the ball hard, and if that isn't working she is in trouble. There are not enough slices in her game, while her net play is poor at best. Maria has always struggled with her movement, and I just don't see how she can get back into this.
Errors give Azarenka a huge chance with another two break points- again she needs just one of those and now Azarenka is in absolute control of this Grand Slam title and the World Number 1 Ranking.
Victoria Azarenka 6-3, 4-0* Maria Sharapova
Big moment here for Sharapova- she needs to find something on the Azarenka serve if she truly has desires to make this a contest.
There is no chance for the former World Number 1 to get into this contest and she is going for far too much. Errors are coming thick and fast, and she looks a little clumsy when being moved around the court- Azarenka is now just 2 games from the title with a double break advantage.
Victoria Azarenka 6-3, *5-0 Maria Sharapova
Another great example of getting Sharapova to move around and winning the point from Azarenka as she moves two points away from a triple break and a chance to serve for the Championship.
This must be frustrating the life out of Sharapova as she gives up another two break points because she cannot penetrate the Azarenka defences and eventually concedes another error.
The first of those is saved after a big serve, but the pattern that has been going on for the last hour continues with solid defence and the eventual Sharapova error giving Azarenka the chance to serve for the title.
Victoria Azarenka 6-3, 6-0 Maria Sharapova
There is no way Sharapova goes anywhere without a fight at least as she crunches a forehand down the line to bring this back to 15 all.
Another crunching groundstroke, this time off the backhand, and Sharapova has a sniff of a chance to extend this match.
Great one-two combination from Azarenka to level the game, but a lucky net cord gives Sharapova a break point... That is missed with another error off the ground from the Russian.
Another wonderful one-two punch gives Azarenka her first Championship point- that's all she needs as another Sharapova backhand goes into the net and we have a new Grand Slam winner and a new World Number 1.
Congratulations to Victoria Azarenka, the 2012 Australian Open Champion and the new World Number 1
It is actually an exciting time for Women's tennis as far as I am concerned now that Azarenka has won her first Grand Slam... With Petra Kvitova at World Number 2, there are finally a couple of Women who will deserve their place at the top of the Rankings, players who have won the biggest tournaments and ones who will clearly be in the consideration for the rest of the Grand Slams this year.
I had a feeling before this match that those two players could have a monopoly on the Grand Slams this season, with Azarenka likely to do better at the French Open, while Kvitova will love the faster surfaces at the US Open and is the defending Wimbledon Champion.
I am looking forward to the rest of the WTA Tour this season, the first time I can say that for a good few years now.
Victoria Azarenka *3-3 Maria Sharapova
Sharapova wins the first point of the game, but another unforced error (9th of the match) and a powerful backhand off the ground gives Azarenka the sniff of another chance.
Strong serving from Sharapova under pressure, not for the first time this tournament, gives her game point, but another unforced error sends the game to deuce.
There seems to be a pattern developing her- Sharapova is struggling to win the point if the point is extended into a rally.
Two big serves from Sharapova to hold to 40.
Victoria Azarenka 4-3* Maria Sharapova
Another one of those tough long rallies is won by Azarenka to move up 30-0... It definitely feels that the younger player has the edge here when the rallies are extended.
I think Sharapova needs to continue playing the aggressive tennis, but the court is not helping her as there is still enough time for Azarenka to play defence and force the Russian to play one more ball.
Pressure point at 30-30 for the server, but Sharapova fails to return the ball and Azarenka goes on to hold serve after yet another extended rally, finishing with a nice lob after bringing Sharapova into the net.
Victoria Azarenka *5-3 Maria Sharapova
After a double fault leaves the game at 15 all, some impressive defence from Sharapova allows her to move ahead in the game.
The first serve is clearly the key for Sharapova here as the second is liable to breaking down during the pressure moments in game- that is backed up with a second double fault to pull the game back to deuce.
It had looked a comfortable service game as she moved 40-15 before that, but all of a sudden Azarenka has a break point... However, Sharapova brings out a big serve and does very well in dictating the rally and putting away the chance.
Sharapova has found her serve at just the right time at key moments throughout this tournament, particularly in the third set of her Semi Final against Petra Kvitova, but the pressure is still on in this game... So much so that Azarenka has earned another break point- the game lasted 9 minutes as Azarenka once again uses the drop shot to full effect and puts away an easy chance at the net to now get a chance at serving for the set.
Victoria Azarenka 6-3, 0-0* Maria Sharapova
This Final has really been one full of quality tennis in my opinion, with both players hitting the ball sweetly and also defending very well.
Azarenka moves through her game and brings up two set points- she only needs one as another unforced error from Sharapova hits the middle of the net. First blood to the youngster and remember that Sharapova has never gone the distance in her previous Grand Slam Finals, whether she has won or lost.
It seems clear to me here that the court is very much favouring Azarenka here as she is the better mover and the better defender of the two players. With it being a lot slower than many hard courts out there, it means Sharapova is having to do MORE to win points and is making too many errors. Sharapova gets to serve first in this set and needs to stay in front on the scoreboard and see whether that creates any additional pressure in Azarenka's mind and gets her to become a little tight.
Victoria Azarenka 6-3, *1-0 Maria Sharapova
A great statistic pops up to say Sharapova is winning just 18% of the baseline rallies- I am assuming that means shots of more than 5 shots... I did have a feeling the extended rallies were going in favour of Azarenka, but not to that extent.
A huge point now for Sharapova, even early in the set, as she goes 15-30 down on serve. It just seems she can't punch through Azarenka in these conditions and that is two break points for Azarenka.
A HUGE mistake from Sharapova on the first one gives her opponent the chance to pass, which is gratefully accepted, and there is big trouble brewing for the Russian... Now how does Azarenka's mind hold up as she gets close to her maiden Grand Slam win.
Victoria Azarenka 6-3, 2-0* Maria Sharapova
A little nervy start to the game for Azarenka as she opens with a double fault and then a mistake to fall 0-30 down... That is all forgotten as Sharapova dumps another simple ball into the net, before Azarenka dictates another punishing rally to move level.
Best return I have seen from Sharapova since the start of the match and she earns a break point- she dictates the point, but seems to take a backward step in the rally that allows Azarenka to take control and force another error.
Far too many mistakes coming from the Sharapova racquet and perhaps the Russian is looking a bit short of ideas as to how to win this match. A couple more errors and Azarenka holds serve.
Victoria Azarenka 6-3, *3-0 Maria Sharapova
I might be speaking far too early, but there seems to be very little thought in what Maria Sharapova wants to do to win this game other than hitting the ball harder and harder... That is leading to more errors on a court where the ball does not fly through.
Unfortunately for Sharapova fans, I don't think she has a lot more to her game other than hitting the ball hard, and if that isn't working she is in trouble. There are not enough slices in her game, while her net play is poor at best. Maria has always struggled with her movement, and I just don't see how she can get back into this.
Errors give Azarenka a huge chance with another two break points- again she needs just one of those and now Azarenka is in absolute control of this Grand Slam title and the World Number 1 Ranking.
Victoria Azarenka 6-3, 4-0* Maria Sharapova
Big moment here for Sharapova- she needs to find something on the Azarenka serve if she truly has desires to make this a contest.
There is no chance for the former World Number 1 to get into this contest and she is going for far too much. Errors are coming thick and fast, and she looks a little clumsy when being moved around the court- Azarenka is now just 2 games from the title with a double break advantage.
Victoria Azarenka 6-3, *5-0 Maria Sharapova
Another great example of getting Sharapova to move around and winning the point from Azarenka as she moves two points away from a triple break and a chance to serve for the Championship.
This must be frustrating the life out of Sharapova as she gives up another two break points because she cannot penetrate the Azarenka defences and eventually concedes another error.
The first of those is saved after a big serve, but the pattern that has been going on for the last hour continues with solid defence and the eventual Sharapova error giving Azarenka the chance to serve for the title.
Victoria Azarenka 6-3, 6-0 Maria Sharapova
There is no way Sharapova goes anywhere without a fight at least as she crunches a forehand down the line to bring this back to 15 all.
Another crunching groundstroke, this time off the backhand, and Sharapova has a sniff of a chance to extend this match.
Great one-two combination from Azarenka to level the game, but a lucky net cord gives Sharapova a break point... That is missed with another error off the ground from the Russian.
Another wonderful one-two punch gives Azarenka her first Championship point- that's all she needs as another Sharapova backhand goes into the net and we have a new Grand Slam winner and a new World Number 1.
Congratulations to Victoria Azarenka, the 2012 Australian Open Champion and the new World Number 1
It is actually an exciting time for Women's tennis as far as I am concerned now that Azarenka has won her first Grand Slam... With Petra Kvitova at World Number 2, there are finally a couple of Women who will deserve their place at the top of the Rankings, players who have won the biggest tournaments and ones who will clearly be in the consideration for the rest of the Grand Slams this year.
I had a feeling before this match that those two players could have a monopoly on the Grand Slams this season, with Azarenka likely to do better at the French Open, while Kvitova will love the faster surfaces at the US Open and is the defending Wimbledon Champion.
I am looking forward to the rest of the WTA Tour this season, the first time I can say that for a good few years now.
Friday, 27 January 2012
Australian Open Day 13 Pick- Azarenka v Sharapova
So we are in the final couple of days of the Australian Open and it does seem strange that the first Grand Slam of the season is almost over.
I think this has been a pretty solid tournament on both sides of the draw and bodes well for another strong season on the tennis circuit in 2012. With most of the top players now just about ready to take a couple weeks off, I think we are going to be treated to a couple of solid Finals to whet our appetite for the rest of the year.
Women's Final Pick
Victoria Azarenka v Maria Sharapova: I am really looking forward to this Final as I think the two best players in the draw this year are taking their rightful place, while the additional bonus of the winner being crowned the new World Number 1 is brilliant news for the Women's game.
This should be a fascinating match between two players that very much like to dictate the points from the back of the court, and it could be the more consistent of the two that wins the Grand Slam.
I think Victoria Azarenka is the more consistent of the two players and I think her movement is going to be the key to the match as the slower courts in Australia should allow her to get involved in more rallies and also force Sharapova to hit one shot more than she may want to on the vast majority of occasions.
The other real issue here is the Sharapova serve that can break down, especially giving away far too many double-faults and that could mean the Russian is under pressure against her younger opponent for much of the match.
The intangibles here are how Azarenka copes with playing in her first Grand Slam Final, but I think she has a lot of belief in her game and that she can cope with Sharapova.
It is telling that the younger player has won 2 of the last 3 meetings against one another, the other being a Sharapova win when Azarenka was forced to retire. More importantly, it says something that Azarenka has won the last 5 full sets that these players have competed in.
Now I already backed Azarenka in the outright markets so I see no need to load up on her again here- I also feel she is the more likely winner of this match so I will not be laying her price or backing Sharapova to cover the outright pick.
With that in mind, I am actually thinking that I will have a small interest in Azarenka to get the better of her nerves and win this match in straight sets... Sharapova's last 5 Grand Slam Finals has ended in straight sets, either with her winning or losing, while Azarenka has won the last 5 sets they have played.
I think there will be a few breaks of serve in this one, but I believe Azarenka will come through 6-4, 6-2.
I am considering doing a live blog during the Final tomorrow and see how it goes... I will post a link to the thread on my Twitter if I decide to go forward with that and I do hope a few of you viewers will join me.
It will just be a few of my thoughts jotted down with live updates of how the match is going. Hope a few of you guys grab a read tomorrow, even if the majority of you will have access to watch it on TV yourselves.
MY PICK: Victoria Azarenka win 2-0 in sets @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Australian Open Update: 20-15, + 14.76 Units
I think this has been a pretty solid tournament on both sides of the draw and bodes well for another strong season on the tennis circuit in 2012. With most of the top players now just about ready to take a couple weeks off, I think we are going to be treated to a couple of solid Finals to whet our appetite for the rest of the year.
Women's Final Pick
Victoria Azarenka v Maria Sharapova: I am really looking forward to this Final as I think the two best players in the draw this year are taking their rightful place, while the additional bonus of the winner being crowned the new World Number 1 is brilliant news for the Women's game.
This should be a fascinating match between two players that very much like to dictate the points from the back of the court, and it could be the more consistent of the two that wins the Grand Slam.
I think Victoria Azarenka is the more consistent of the two players and I think her movement is going to be the key to the match as the slower courts in Australia should allow her to get involved in more rallies and also force Sharapova to hit one shot more than she may want to on the vast majority of occasions.
The other real issue here is the Sharapova serve that can break down, especially giving away far too many double-faults and that could mean the Russian is under pressure against her younger opponent for much of the match.
The intangibles here are how Azarenka copes with playing in her first Grand Slam Final, but I think she has a lot of belief in her game and that she can cope with Sharapova.
It is telling that the younger player has won 2 of the last 3 meetings against one another, the other being a Sharapova win when Azarenka was forced to retire. More importantly, it says something that Azarenka has won the last 5 full sets that these players have competed in.
Now I already backed Azarenka in the outright markets so I see no need to load up on her again here- I also feel she is the more likely winner of this match so I will not be laying her price or backing Sharapova to cover the outright pick.
With that in mind, I am actually thinking that I will have a small interest in Azarenka to get the better of her nerves and win this match in straight sets... Sharapova's last 5 Grand Slam Finals has ended in straight sets, either with her winning or losing, while Azarenka has won the last 5 sets they have played.
I think there will be a few breaks of serve in this one, but I believe Azarenka will come through 6-4, 6-2.
I am considering doing a live blog during the Final tomorrow and see how it goes... I will post a link to the thread on my Twitter if I decide to go forward with that and I do hope a few of you viewers will join me.
It will just be a few of my thoughts jotted down with live updates of how the match is going. Hope a few of you guys grab a read tomorrow, even if the majority of you will have access to watch it on TV yourselves.
MY PICK: Victoria Azarenka win 2-0 in sets @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Australian Open Update: 20-15, + 14.76 Units
Friday, 12 August 2011
Tennis Picks August 12th
The most frustrating element of this week has been how close some of these picks have been to winning, yet I find myself in a very bad position.
Both tournaments in Toronto and Montreal have seen a huge number of surprise results, and I guess that has to be expected considering a lot of the players are playing in their first events since Wimbledon. Still, I expect better from myself and am hoping I can have a strong end to the week to salvage some pride.
Now on to the Picks:
Sam Stosur - 3.5 games vs Roberta Vinci: If you had blindly backed Roberta Vinci in every match this week, you would have + 8.52 Units for every 1 Unit you have staked- it has been more than a surprise to see Vinci still participating in a tournament after struggling on the hard courts for much of her career.
I backed Ana Ivanovic to beat Vinci yesterday, but I am going back to the well with Sam Stosur, a player that looked in fine fettle in her win over Na Li yesterday.
Stosur plays her game with a lot of spin and that could cause problems for the 5 foot 4 inch Vinci, especially if she gets as much off the court as the Australian did yesterday. The hard courts should favour Stosur's game much more and I will expect her to come through in straight sets, 7-5 6-3.
Agnieska Radwanska vs Andrea Petkovic: I am a little concerned with the amount of tennis Radwanska has played recently, but she showed she is in fine form after winning the tournament in San Diego last week. The Polish Number 1 beat Petkovic en route to the trophy and I expect her consistent game will be too much for the German again.
Petkovic took advantage of an error-ridden game from Petra Kvitova yesterday, but she has lost all 3 previous meetings with Radwanska and finds it hard to break down the defence the Pole employs.
This could go the distance, but I think the edge will be with Radwanska at the end of the day.
Mardy Fish - 2 games vs Stanislas Wawrinka: Mardy Fish has been in fine form during the US hard court swing, winning the tournament in Atlanta before reaching the Final in LA, and I think he is favourite to come through the bottom half of the draw since Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal exited early.
Wawrinka has done well to reach this Quarter Final, but I can't shake the feeling he has taken advantage of a very straight forward draw especially after Murray went out.
I expect Fish will have a little too much for Wawrinka in this match, although it is possible it goes the distance. His serve is a little more solid, while he has the knowledge to end points quickly at the net. I would guess the pressure of keeping up with Fish will eventually be the difference and Fish will get through.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games vs Nicolas Almagro: While we saw Ivan Dodig and Kevin Anderson falter after knocking out players in the top 4 of the World Rankings, I do not expect the same of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who is finally beginning to play with the belief that he should be much higher in the rankings himself.
Many would have been watching out for Juan Martin Del Potro as a dark horse for the US Open, but I have now been converted into thinking Tsonga can do enough to make a serious splash at that event.
His win over Roger Federer showed his serve is working very effectively while his returning game has come on leaps and bounds in the last 8 months.
Nicolas Almagro is a tough competitor, but one who is much happier with the clay under his feet. He has a big serve, but his groundstrokes can be inconsistent and I think that is where Tsonga will have the edge.
Importantly, Tsonga has also won all 4 of their previous meetings, the last 3 all being on clay courts which I would have expected to suit Almagro a little more. I think Tsonga will come through tonight 6-3, 6-4 with a break in each set.
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games vs Galina Voskoboeva: Galina Voskoboeva is having a huge week- after qualifying for this event, she has gone on to beat Marion Bartoli and Maria Sharapova and has lost just 2 sets in her 5 matches this week.
This could be her toughest test of the week against Victoria Azarenka who has been playing some good stuff this week, losing just 3 games in 4 sets played. I expect the World Number 4 to have too much for Voskoboeva, and to run away with the match after a tight first set.
MY PICKS: Sam Stosur - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Agnieska Radwanska @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 2 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: - 6.41 Units
Both tournaments in Toronto and Montreal have seen a huge number of surprise results, and I guess that has to be expected considering a lot of the players are playing in their first events since Wimbledon. Still, I expect better from myself and am hoping I can have a strong end to the week to salvage some pride.
Now on to the Picks:
Sam Stosur - 3.5 games vs Roberta Vinci: If you had blindly backed Roberta Vinci in every match this week, you would have + 8.52 Units for every 1 Unit you have staked- it has been more than a surprise to see Vinci still participating in a tournament after struggling on the hard courts for much of her career.
I backed Ana Ivanovic to beat Vinci yesterday, but I am going back to the well with Sam Stosur, a player that looked in fine fettle in her win over Na Li yesterday.
Stosur plays her game with a lot of spin and that could cause problems for the 5 foot 4 inch Vinci, especially if she gets as much off the court as the Australian did yesterday. The hard courts should favour Stosur's game much more and I will expect her to come through in straight sets, 7-5 6-3.
Agnieska Radwanska vs Andrea Petkovic: I am a little concerned with the amount of tennis Radwanska has played recently, but she showed she is in fine form after winning the tournament in San Diego last week. The Polish Number 1 beat Petkovic en route to the trophy and I expect her consistent game will be too much for the German again.
Petkovic took advantage of an error-ridden game from Petra Kvitova yesterday, but she has lost all 3 previous meetings with Radwanska and finds it hard to break down the defence the Pole employs.
This could go the distance, but I think the edge will be with Radwanska at the end of the day.
Mardy Fish - 2 games vs Stanislas Wawrinka: Mardy Fish has been in fine form during the US hard court swing, winning the tournament in Atlanta before reaching the Final in LA, and I think he is favourite to come through the bottom half of the draw since Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal exited early.
Wawrinka has done well to reach this Quarter Final, but I can't shake the feeling he has taken advantage of a very straight forward draw especially after Murray went out.
I expect Fish will have a little too much for Wawrinka in this match, although it is possible it goes the distance. His serve is a little more solid, while he has the knowledge to end points quickly at the net. I would guess the pressure of keeping up with Fish will eventually be the difference and Fish will get through.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games vs Nicolas Almagro: While we saw Ivan Dodig and Kevin Anderson falter after knocking out players in the top 4 of the World Rankings, I do not expect the same of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who is finally beginning to play with the belief that he should be much higher in the rankings himself.
Many would have been watching out for Juan Martin Del Potro as a dark horse for the US Open, but I have now been converted into thinking Tsonga can do enough to make a serious splash at that event.
His win over Roger Federer showed his serve is working very effectively while his returning game has come on leaps and bounds in the last 8 months.
Nicolas Almagro is a tough competitor, but one who is much happier with the clay under his feet. He has a big serve, but his groundstrokes can be inconsistent and I think that is where Tsonga will have the edge.
Importantly, Tsonga has also won all 4 of their previous meetings, the last 3 all being on clay courts which I would have expected to suit Almagro a little more. I think Tsonga will come through tonight 6-3, 6-4 with a break in each set.
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games vs Galina Voskoboeva: Galina Voskoboeva is having a huge week- after qualifying for this event, she has gone on to beat Marion Bartoli and Maria Sharapova and has lost just 2 sets in her 5 matches this week.
This could be her toughest test of the week against Victoria Azarenka who has been playing some good stuff this week, losing just 3 games in 4 sets played. I expect the World Number 4 to have too much for Voskoboeva, and to run away with the match after a tight first set.
MY PICKS: Sam Stosur - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Agnieska Radwanska @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 2 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: - 6.41 Units
Thursday, 30 June 2011
Wimbledon Day 10 Picks- Women's Semi Finals
The Men's Quarter Finals saw what could be one of the biggest surprises in recent Wimbledon history when Roger Federer lost from 2 sets up against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
A lot of people are talking of this as being an 'end of an era' for Federer, but I still think the Swiss Master has a Grand Slam in him with the right kind of draw. Tsonga is one of these players that can be tough to knock off when he is playing his 'A' game and I think Federer was unfortunate to run into him in such form.
Tsonga played the big points well in the final 3 sets- just take a look at the games where he broke the Federer serve! Federer was also at 0-30 on the Tsonga serve on at least 4/5 occasions in the final 3 sets but could not manage to move on to a break point, another disappointment for the former World Number 1.
I was surprised to see how much Federer was still able to smile in his press conference and I do believe he will be right back up there when the US Open rolls around in August/September.
The loss for Federer also meant one of my outright picks, the top 4 making the Semi Finals, was also scuppered. However, on a brighter note, my pick for Rafael Nadal to win the Men's event has shortened considerably.
Thursday is the day the Women's event sets up the Final for Saturday. Both Semi Finals look interesting on paper so lets move on to Day 10 Picks:
Petra Kvitova to win vs Victoria Azarenka: Victoria Azarenka has been on the brink of making a really big move on the tour in recent seasons and has now made her first Grand Slam Semi Final. However, Azarenka is in for one tough battle against Petra Kvitova.
Kvitova is clearly at home on the grass and she has come on leaps and bounds on the WTA Tour since reaching the Semi Final here last year. That result clearly gave her the belief that she can compete at this level and she is now having her best year and has moved into the World's top 8.
Kvitova reached the Final at Eastbourne in the lead up to Wimbledon and she has impressed me with the way she is controlling matches using her serve and heavy groundstrokes off both wings.
The Czech player has dropped just 1 set in the tournament, but she has not given up more than 3 games in any of her other sets competed.
Azarenka is also a big hitter, but it is a shame that she is more known for her very annoying noises she makes while hitting a shot rather than her skills on court. While she too has only dropped one set in this tournament, I do think Azarenka has shown mental frailties in the past and that could be a factor in this match.
Kvitova definitely has the more reliable serve, in my opinion, while both are capable of hitting big shots of the ground. The match could come down to which of the players is able to unleash their big shots first, and that is where Kvitova's serve could make the difference.
Azarenka and Kvitova have a 2-2 head to head, but it is the Czech who may have an additional edge there as she has won their last 2 meetings including at Wimbledon last year.
Maria Sharapova win 2-0 in sets vs Sabine Lisicki: Sabine Lisicki has had a brilliant tournament but I feel this is going to be a step too far for the Wild Card. The German has won 11 matches in a row on grass this year, dropping just 2 sets in those wins, but this match will clearly be her toughest challenge.
Lisicki does have a great first serve and will also look to move Maria Sharapova around the court with the use of the drop shot that hurt Marion Bartoli so much in the last Round. However, she has not had a lot of matches on the main tour before the grass court season and plays arguably the most in form player on the WTA Tour.
Sharapova could do nothing wrong in her win over Dominika Cibulkova on Tuesday, but this will be a tougher test. The Russian will need to serve well and try to dominate the rallies with her heavy groundstrokes.
Sharapova has had few problems throughout this tournament and is yet to drop a set. She will be given further confidence from her 6-2, 6-0 crushing of Lisicki earlier this year in Miami and I think she feels this tournament is hers for the taking.
Both of the sets could be close, but ultimately I see Sharapova prevailing and going through to the Final in straight sets.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova win @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova win 2-0 in sets @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 13.81 Units (- 0.18 Units Day 9)
A lot of people are talking of this as being an 'end of an era' for Federer, but I still think the Swiss Master has a Grand Slam in him with the right kind of draw. Tsonga is one of these players that can be tough to knock off when he is playing his 'A' game and I think Federer was unfortunate to run into him in such form.
Tsonga played the big points well in the final 3 sets- just take a look at the games where he broke the Federer serve! Federer was also at 0-30 on the Tsonga serve on at least 4/5 occasions in the final 3 sets but could not manage to move on to a break point, another disappointment for the former World Number 1.
I was surprised to see how much Federer was still able to smile in his press conference and I do believe he will be right back up there when the US Open rolls around in August/September.
The loss for Federer also meant one of my outright picks, the top 4 making the Semi Finals, was also scuppered. However, on a brighter note, my pick for Rafael Nadal to win the Men's event has shortened considerably.
Thursday is the day the Women's event sets up the Final for Saturday. Both Semi Finals look interesting on paper so lets move on to Day 10 Picks:
Petra Kvitova to win vs Victoria Azarenka: Victoria Azarenka has been on the brink of making a really big move on the tour in recent seasons and has now made her first Grand Slam Semi Final. However, Azarenka is in for one tough battle against Petra Kvitova.
Kvitova is clearly at home on the grass and she has come on leaps and bounds on the WTA Tour since reaching the Semi Final here last year. That result clearly gave her the belief that she can compete at this level and she is now having her best year and has moved into the World's top 8.
Kvitova reached the Final at Eastbourne in the lead up to Wimbledon and she has impressed me with the way she is controlling matches using her serve and heavy groundstrokes off both wings.
The Czech player has dropped just 1 set in the tournament, but she has not given up more than 3 games in any of her other sets competed.
Azarenka is also a big hitter, but it is a shame that she is more known for her very annoying noises she makes while hitting a shot rather than her skills on court. While she too has only dropped one set in this tournament, I do think Azarenka has shown mental frailties in the past and that could be a factor in this match.
Kvitova definitely has the more reliable serve, in my opinion, while both are capable of hitting big shots of the ground. The match could come down to which of the players is able to unleash their big shots first, and that is where Kvitova's serve could make the difference.
Azarenka and Kvitova have a 2-2 head to head, but it is the Czech who may have an additional edge there as she has won their last 2 meetings including at Wimbledon last year.
Maria Sharapova win 2-0 in sets vs Sabine Lisicki: Sabine Lisicki has had a brilliant tournament but I feel this is going to be a step too far for the Wild Card. The German has won 11 matches in a row on grass this year, dropping just 2 sets in those wins, but this match will clearly be her toughest challenge.
Lisicki does have a great first serve and will also look to move Maria Sharapova around the court with the use of the drop shot that hurt Marion Bartoli so much in the last Round. However, she has not had a lot of matches on the main tour before the grass court season and plays arguably the most in form player on the WTA Tour.
Sharapova could do nothing wrong in her win over Dominika Cibulkova on Tuesday, but this will be a tougher test. The Russian will need to serve well and try to dominate the rallies with her heavy groundstrokes.
Sharapova has had few problems throughout this tournament and is yet to drop a set. She will be given further confidence from her 6-2, 6-0 crushing of Lisicki earlier this year in Miami and I think she feels this tournament is hers for the taking.
Both of the sets could be close, but ultimately I see Sharapova prevailing and going through to the Final in straight sets.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova win @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova win 2-0 in sets @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 13.81 Units (- 0.18 Units Day 9)
Tuesday, 28 June 2011
Wimbledon Day 8 Picks- Women's Quarter Finals
Awful. Disgraceful. Disappointing... These are some of the words I used to describe my picks from yesterday in my worst day of the tournament so far. Anything that could have gone wrong did go wrong and we have lost a little of the profit we had made during the first week of the tournament.
To make matters worse, my outright picks from the Men's draw are looking in serious trouble as it seems there is a real chance that Rafael Nadal will be forced to withdraw from the tournament. I am hoping he has just got heavy bruising and the shock of the injury affected him more than anything else during his won over Juan Martin Del Potro and I will be keeping my fingers crossed that the MRI Scan comes back negative.
One bright note of the day was the Maria Sharapova pick's position has been strengthened as Serena Williams, Venus Williams and Caroline Wozniacki all exited the tournament on Miserable Monday (I have dubbed it that for this year after the picks seemingly all fell apart). There is still a long way to go in the tournament, but even Sharapova must feel this is her best chance to add to her Grand Slam tally.
Now on to Day 8 Picks as the Women's Quarter Finals take centre stage:
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games vs Dominika Cibulkova: Maria Sharapova has been in good form over the last 6 weeks or so and she was a trendy pick to win the tournament before it began. She is serving pretty well while her groundies look in good shape- they will have to be performing if she wants to get through this match.
Dominika Cibulkova surprised Caroline Wozniacki in the last Round by overpowering the Number 1 seed. The Slovakian's first serve is decent enough, but she can sometimes lack consistency with her groundstrokes and her forehand is particularly vulnerable to breaking down.
This should be a big hitting game but Sharapova has the edge in serve and groundstrokes that should help her overcome this challenge. Cibulkova is definitely the better mover, but she does present more opportunities for her opponents to break her serve and that may make all the difference.
They are tied 2-2 in the head to head, with Cibulkova winning 2 in a row, but all matches have been played on clay courts. The grass should favour Sharapova more.
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games vs Tamira Paszek: Victoria Azarenka is a real threat to win this tournament as her penetrating groundstrokes work effectively on this surface. She has come through the draw with little problems outside of Daniela Hantuchova, and may just be ready to make her Grand Slam breakthrough.
Tamira Paszek is having a dream tournament, fighting through the first 4 Rounds. Paszek has been forced to go the distance in 3 of those Rounds and I just feel she has taken advantage of a weak section of the draw.
She has surpassed her run here from 2007 when reaching the 4th Round, but I just feel this is a challenge too far for the young player.
Azarenka is far too consistent as far as I am concerned and should take advantage of a player that had won just 2 matches on the main WTA Tour before the last 2 weeks at Eastbourne and Wimbledon.
Azarenka also holds a 1-0 head to head record when beating Paszek in straight sets in Montreal. That match took place in 2008 and I feel Azarenka is markedly improved since then and will make the Semi Finals with a little room to spare.
MY PICKS: Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 10.33 Units (- 5.18 Units Day 7)
To make matters worse, my outright picks from the Men's draw are looking in serious trouble as it seems there is a real chance that Rafael Nadal will be forced to withdraw from the tournament. I am hoping he has just got heavy bruising and the shock of the injury affected him more than anything else during his won over Juan Martin Del Potro and I will be keeping my fingers crossed that the MRI Scan comes back negative.
One bright note of the day was the Maria Sharapova pick's position has been strengthened as Serena Williams, Venus Williams and Caroline Wozniacki all exited the tournament on Miserable Monday (I have dubbed it that for this year after the picks seemingly all fell apart). There is still a long way to go in the tournament, but even Sharapova must feel this is her best chance to add to her Grand Slam tally.
Now on to Day 8 Picks as the Women's Quarter Finals take centre stage:
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games vs Dominika Cibulkova: Maria Sharapova has been in good form over the last 6 weeks or so and she was a trendy pick to win the tournament before it began. She is serving pretty well while her groundies look in good shape- they will have to be performing if she wants to get through this match.
Dominika Cibulkova surprised Caroline Wozniacki in the last Round by overpowering the Number 1 seed. The Slovakian's first serve is decent enough, but she can sometimes lack consistency with her groundstrokes and her forehand is particularly vulnerable to breaking down.
This should be a big hitting game but Sharapova has the edge in serve and groundstrokes that should help her overcome this challenge. Cibulkova is definitely the better mover, but she does present more opportunities for her opponents to break her serve and that may make all the difference.
They are tied 2-2 in the head to head, with Cibulkova winning 2 in a row, but all matches have been played on clay courts. The grass should favour Sharapova more.
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games vs Tamira Paszek: Victoria Azarenka is a real threat to win this tournament as her penetrating groundstrokes work effectively on this surface. She has come through the draw with little problems outside of Daniela Hantuchova, and may just be ready to make her Grand Slam breakthrough.
Tamira Paszek is having a dream tournament, fighting through the first 4 Rounds. Paszek has been forced to go the distance in 3 of those Rounds and I just feel she has taken advantage of a weak section of the draw.
She has surpassed her run here from 2007 when reaching the 4th Round, but I just feel this is a challenge too far for the young player.
Azarenka is far too consistent as far as I am concerned and should take advantage of a player that had won just 2 matches on the main WTA Tour before the last 2 weeks at Eastbourne and Wimbledon.
Azarenka also holds a 1-0 head to head record when beating Paszek in straight sets in Montreal. That match took place in 2008 and I feel Azarenka is markedly improved since then and will make the Semi Finals with a little room to spare.
MY PICKS: Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 10.33 Units (- 5.18 Units Day 7)
Tuesday, 31 May 2011
French Open Day 11 Picks
Ouch!! That is the only way I can describe Day 10 for my picks which was the worst day of the tournament so far. Both Andu Murray and Roger Federer missed covering the spread by 2 games combined, while Francesca Schiavone fought back wonderfully well to win in 3 sets.
These things will happen in a 2 week tournament, but we still remain in a very strong position overall for the tournament and must look to bounce back in the correct fashion.
The Men's draw also gave us a wonderful Semi Final for Friday as Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer both reached that stage. While the initial drama will be surrounding Djokovic's unbeaten start to the season, we also have the intrigue of seeing if Federer is still a genuine threat at the business end of Slams as well as the chance for Djokovic to take over the World Number 1 Ranking in time for Wimbledon with a win.
The Women's draw sees the reigning Champion, Schiavone, take on France's last hope in their Slam in the form of Marion Bartoli. My initial reaction is again how much Schiavone can get Bartoli on the move as the French Woman is probably better off the ground.
That should be an entertaining Semi Final on Thursday as the tournament draws to a close.
Now on to Day 11 Picks:
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games vs Robin Soderling: I am sure we have all read up on Nadal's private thoughts, thoughts that he made very public after his win over Ivan Ljubicic on Monday. Nadal admits he is not playing well but this is coming from someone who believes he has only been 'so-so' in previous trips to Paris.
It is clear that Nadal is not his usual dominating self at the moment, but he is a Champion that usually reserves his best tennis until the latter end of tournaments. Now he faces a huge test in the form of Robin Soderling.
Soderling is the only man to have beaten Nadal here in Paris, and has been playing pretty solid tennis. However, he has checked out of some sets this past 10 days and needs to keep to a high level if he wants to surprise Nadal.
Nadal will also have added motivation from the fact that he is not the biggest fan of Soderling and they have had issues in the past. You sense this will push the Spaniard on to play his best match of the tournament and perhaps see him produce something similar to either his win here at Roland Garros last year or at Wimbledon.
Soderling may take a set, but I see Nadal progressing here and covering the spread.
Andy Murray - 6.5 games vs Juan Ignacio Chela: The real issue about this match up is how well Andy Murray will recover to play again so soon after his win over Victor Troicki. His game matches up so well against Chela's, as proven in victories over the Argentinian in 2009 and 2010 here, both with plenty to spare.
Murray has admitted there is a partial tear in his right ankle, but he also feels he can get through the tournament (I wouldnt expect him to play at Queens next week).
Chela is the oldest man left in the draw and has done remarkably well to get through to this Quarter Final, especially considering he has had to negotiate two 5 set matches already. This run would be seen as a bonus as his career winds down and I struggle to see how he can be really competitive here.
Chela's serve is a weakness, while he doesnt use the guile that others do. I also feel Murray will control the points for the most part and its hard to see Chela winning more than 11 games here.
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games vs Na Li: I will admit I got Na Li's match with Petra Kvitova the wrong way around, but I still think the Chinese Number 1 is not built for clay and will really struggle here. Li herself has admitted clay is not her favourite surface and she now meets one of the hottest women on the tour in the shape of Victoria Azarenka.
Azarenka looks like the injury that forced her retirement in Rome is behind her, and she is barely allowing opponents to get involved in sets.
Li has won 3 of their 4 meetings on the tour, including at the Australian Open earlier this year, but none of their meetings have come on clay, a surface that favours Azarenka more.
I just feel the nature of the surface allows Azarenka more time to dictate the points and I expect she will come through in straight sets.
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games vs Andrea Petkovic: Maria Sharapova has been consistent this season and now looks like she is smelling the chance to win yet another Major. There has been a little inconsistency in her performances so far, but the win in Rome showed Sharapova is ready to take this title home.
Sharapova has beaten the likes of Agnieska Radwanska, Sam Stosur and Caroline Wozniacki over the last couple of tournaments and has proved she can handle the slower stuff.
Andrea Petkovic is a real example for all those that work hard everyday that you can be rewarded. This is the 2nd Major of the season that she has reached the Quarter Finals and Petkovic also has the confidence behind her having won in Strasbourg in the last tournament before Paris.
However, Petkovic has not had an easy tournament and this is by far the hardest test she would have faced on the clay courts this season. The head to head is also 2-1 in favour of Sharapova, although none of the matches took place on clay, and I think the Russian will be able to overpower her opponent here.
I just noticed that I am picking all 4 favourites to cover the spreads tomorrow- Both Nadal and Azarenka are more on hunches and feeling of the match ups; Nadal has struggled in this tournament and Li has a winning record over Azarenka.
I just feel that all 4 favourites have a little extra on their opponents and can make it through to the next Round without having too many bumps along the way. Nadal and Murray may lose tight sets, but I think their prowess over their opponents will let them come through while clearing the handicap.
Both Azarenka and Sharapova have clear upsides on their opponents and the Women's game tends to throw up a few more easy sets which means even the loss of a set can be overcome.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 6.5 games @ 1.83 Stan James (3 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games @ 2.10 BetFred (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 12.27 Units (- 7 Units Day 10 eurghhhh)
These things will happen in a 2 week tournament, but we still remain in a very strong position overall for the tournament and must look to bounce back in the correct fashion.
The Men's draw also gave us a wonderful Semi Final for Friday as Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer both reached that stage. While the initial drama will be surrounding Djokovic's unbeaten start to the season, we also have the intrigue of seeing if Federer is still a genuine threat at the business end of Slams as well as the chance for Djokovic to take over the World Number 1 Ranking in time for Wimbledon with a win.
The Women's draw sees the reigning Champion, Schiavone, take on France's last hope in their Slam in the form of Marion Bartoli. My initial reaction is again how much Schiavone can get Bartoli on the move as the French Woman is probably better off the ground.
That should be an entertaining Semi Final on Thursday as the tournament draws to a close.
Now on to Day 11 Picks:
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games vs Robin Soderling: I am sure we have all read up on Nadal's private thoughts, thoughts that he made very public after his win over Ivan Ljubicic on Monday. Nadal admits he is not playing well but this is coming from someone who believes he has only been 'so-so' in previous trips to Paris.
It is clear that Nadal is not his usual dominating self at the moment, but he is a Champion that usually reserves his best tennis until the latter end of tournaments. Now he faces a huge test in the form of Robin Soderling.
Soderling is the only man to have beaten Nadal here in Paris, and has been playing pretty solid tennis. However, he has checked out of some sets this past 10 days and needs to keep to a high level if he wants to surprise Nadal.
Nadal will also have added motivation from the fact that he is not the biggest fan of Soderling and they have had issues in the past. You sense this will push the Spaniard on to play his best match of the tournament and perhaps see him produce something similar to either his win here at Roland Garros last year or at Wimbledon.
Soderling may take a set, but I see Nadal progressing here and covering the spread.
Andy Murray - 6.5 games vs Juan Ignacio Chela: The real issue about this match up is how well Andy Murray will recover to play again so soon after his win over Victor Troicki. His game matches up so well against Chela's, as proven in victories over the Argentinian in 2009 and 2010 here, both with plenty to spare.
Murray has admitted there is a partial tear in his right ankle, but he also feels he can get through the tournament (I wouldnt expect him to play at Queens next week).
Chela is the oldest man left in the draw and has done remarkably well to get through to this Quarter Final, especially considering he has had to negotiate two 5 set matches already. This run would be seen as a bonus as his career winds down and I struggle to see how he can be really competitive here.
Chela's serve is a weakness, while he doesnt use the guile that others do. I also feel Murray will control the points for the most part and its hard to see Chela winning more than 11 games here.
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games vs Na Li: I will admit I got Na Li's match with Petra Kvitova the wrong way around, but I still think the Chinese Number 1 is not built for clay and will really struggle here. Li herself has admitted clay is not her favourite surface and she now meets one of the hottest women on the tour in the shape of Victoria Azarenka.
Azarenka looks like the injury that forced her retirement in Rome is behind her, and she is barely allowing opponents to get involved in sets.
Li has won 3 of their 4 meetings on the tour, including at the Australian Open earlier this year, but none of their meetings have come on clay, a surface that favours Azarenka more.
I just feel the nature of the surface allows Azarenka more time to dictate the points and I expect she will come through in straight sets.
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games vs Andrea Petkovic: Maria Sharapova has been consistent this season and now looks like she is smelling the chance to win yet another Major. There has been a little inconsistency in her performances so far, but the win in Rome showed Sharapova is ready to take this title home.
Sharapova has beaten the likes of Agnieska Radwanska, Sam Stosur and Caroline Wozniacki over the last couple of tournaments and has proved she can handle the slower stuff.
Andrea Petkovic is a real example for all those that work hard everyday that you can be rewarded. This is the 2nd Major of the season that she has reached the Quarter Finals and Petkovic also has the confidence behind her having won in Strasbourg in the last tournament before Paris.
However, Petkovic has not had an easy tournament and this is by far the hardest test she would have faced on the clay courts this season. The head to head is also 2-1 in favour of Sharapova, although none of the matches took place on clay, and I think the Russian will be able to overpower her opponent here.
I just noticed that I am picking all 4 favourites to cover the spreads tomorrow- Both Nadal and Azarenka are more on hunches and feeling of the match ups; Nadal has struggled in this tournament and Li has a winning record over Azarenka.
I just feel that all 4 favourites have a little extra on their opponents and can make it through to the next Round without having too many bumps along the way. Nadal and Murray may lose tight sets, but I think their prowess over their opponents will let them come through while clearing the handicap.
Both Azarenka and Sharapova have clear upsides on their opponents and the Women's game tends to throw up a few more easy sets which means even the loss of a set can be overcome.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 6.5 games @ 1.83 Stan James (3 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games @ 2.10 BetFred (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 12.27 Units (- 7 Units Day 10 eurghhhh)
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