The picks were very successful yesterday and have pushed the profits up above 20 units from the daily picks alone during this tournament.
All of the outright picks are also in tact, barring the small pick on Agnieszka Radwansksa, so all in all the US Open has been a good tournament for me so far.
However, this is now the stage where the tournament gets tougher to predict as we are almost at the Quarter Final stage in the Women's event and the 4th Round of the Men's event beginning today.
I am going to do my best to ensure I do not give back the hard earned profits from the last 7 days.
Day 8 Picks:
Francesca Schiavone vs Anastasia Pavyluchenkova: I am picking the underdog, Francesca Schiavone, to open the days proceedings with a win over the young talented Russian.
I feel the odds have been set the way they have due to the time on court Schiavone has spent in the last Round, coupled with Pavyluchenkova's impressive straight sets win over the in-form Jelena Jankovic.
However, Schiavone has had a days rest since her win over Chanelle Scheepers, and I think Pavyluchenkova was in a good place mentally to take on Jankovic as she had won their 2 previous meetings.
This match will pose a different sort of pressure on the Russian as she is down 1-3 in the head to head with Schiavone and was beaten at the French Open in May and also here in Flushing Meadows in 2010 by this opponent.
I expect the dogged Italian to force Pavyluchenkova to hit one more ball on one too many occasions and grind her way to a win, possibly in 3 sets.
Janko Tipsarevic win 3-1 in sets vs Juan Carlos Ferrero: The Serb is definitely getting better and more accustomed to reaching the latter stages of tournaments and I think he will be good enough to see off the veteran Spaniard Juan Carlos Ferrero and pick up his first career win over him.
However, Tipsarevic is plenty short in the market and he still has the tendency to check out of sets so the option of picking him to win while losing a set appeals to me.
Ferrero has fought through two 5 set matches to reach this stage of the tournament, but he was given an extended rest after his opponent in the last Round retired.
I just don't think he has consistency these days to keep up with Tipsarevic as the match enters the latter stages and I think the Serb will have enough to come through with a 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 win.
Serena Williams-Ana Ivanovic Under 18.5 games: The handicap has moved another game in favour of Serena Williams and I think it looks a little long now, but the American should be far too good for Ana Ivanovic and I expect a routine straight sets win.
Williams is hitting the ball so well at the moment and it is like she has never been away. She outplayed Victoria Azarenka in the last Round for most of the match, with the World Number 4 barely surviving into a tie break in the 2nd set through heart and guts alone.
Ivanovic does not strike me as someone who has the belief in her game to come back if Williams gets off to a similar start to Saturday in this match, especially considering the Serb's recent form and also the fact she has lost her 2 previous meetings against Serena.
They met here at the US Open in 2006, when Ivanovic was swiftly moving up the Rankings, and I see a similar 6-4, 6-2 result this time for the favourite to win the title.
Mardy Fish vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: This should be a brilliant tennis match regardless of the winner, but I am going to back the American to come through and I know I will be joined by Roger Federer in that hope as he is most likely going to be the next opponent for the winner.
Mardy Fish has been in excellent form this season as he has begun to feel more and more comfortable in his position as America's Number 1 Male player. The pressure for a long time would have been on Andy Roddick in that position coming into Flushing Meadows, but Fish has escaped such expectation as he really is a late bloomer at this level.
I have read some opposition to Fish tonight because of the amount of tennis he has played in recent weeks, but he is in the best shape of his career and did take a week off before the tournament started.
Both players have a similar game, liking to be on the offensive and putting down a foundation with a strong first serve. Both are also very comfortable up the court at the net and the match could come down to who gets the first strike off first.
I just feel Fish is a little more consistent off the ground, even if Tsonga possesses the flashier shots, and that could be enough to take out the Frenchman. It could go a long time though so I would clear a bit of time on your schedule if you want to watch the match.
Roger Federer - 9.5 games vs Juan Monaco: The first thing to say is Juan Monaco has given Roger Federer a tough time in their 2 previous meetings, and only lost a tight 2 setter in Miami when they played earlier this season.
However, I fancy the former World Number 1 to win this one with a bit to spare as the conditions should suit him much more and Monaco does not really have the game to threaten Federer consistently.
Federer will, I imagine, also be aware of the adverse weather conditions due to hit New York in the next couple of days and I expect him to play fully focused to win this match as soon as possible.
His serve has been working effectively and he has been rallying well, and I would expect a 6-1, 6-4, 6-3 win for Federer.
MY PICKS: Francesca Schiavone @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Janko Tipsarevic win 3-1 @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Serena Williams-Ana Ivanovic Under 18.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Mardy Fish @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 9.5 games @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
US OPEN UPDATE: 20-11, + 21.43 Units
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Showing posts with label Mardy Fish. Show all posts
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Monday, 5 September 2011
Saturday, 13 August 2011
Tennis Picks August 13th
After a horrendous start to the week and looking like I was going to struggle to a heavy loss, things turned around yesterday as all 5 picks came in as winners.
I really felt I deserved that change in fortune after having a few really close losses earlier in the week that added up to my struggles. Now I am back in profit for the daily picks with the Semi Finals tonight and the Finals tomorrow from the events in Montreal and Toronto.
On to the Picks:
Sam Stosur vs Agnieska Radwanska: I am going to back the Australian in this one to come through as the underdog.
Stosur has played well in her last 3 matches after struggling in Round 1, and I really think she has an excellent chance of making the Final. She is one of the few players on the WTA Tour that plays with a lot of heavy spin on her shots and that may make life difficult for a defensive player like Radwanska.
The other issue is the amount of matches Radwanska has had to play recently and fatigue must be an issue. Unlike a 2 week Grand Slam, the Pole has had very little rest after coming in from the West Coast of America on Monday following a win in San Diego.
This will eventually tell on Radwanska, and I think it is Stosur who will take advantage.
Mardy Fish - 2.5 games vs Janko Tipsarevic: This may look a risky play after Mardy Fish decided to lose his mind when serving in the 2nd set against Stanislas Wawrinka yesterday, but I think he has the edge over Tipsarevic on the hard courts of North America.
Janko Tipsarevic is a very good player, but still is very inconsistent when following strong performances with very poor ones. His serve is effective on the faster surfaces, but I think Fish attacking the net will eventually pay dividends and allow the American to move through in 2 sets.
The first set could be a tight affair before Fish takes complete control, and the fact he has won their last 3 meetings on different surfaces should give the American additional confidence and reach yet another Masters Final on North American soil.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 4.5 games vs Novak Djokovic: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is playing some of the best stuff in his career over the last couple of months and has transferred his form from Wimbledon onto the hard courts here in Montreal.
He will receive a lot of support from the French-speaking residents of this city and I think he is playing well enough to at least pose problems for Djokovic.
What can I say about the Serb that hasn't been said already this season? He has lifted his level to such a high standard and to lose just 1 match all season in this period of Men's tennis is something very very special.
In saying that, I think Tsonga has the game to give anyone problems, and if he is hitting as clean as he has been this week, I really feel the Frenchman will give Djokovic his biggest test of the tournament this week.
MY PICKS: Sam Stosur @ 2.20 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Mardy Fish - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 4.5 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 2.65 Units
I really felt I deserved that change in fortune after having a few really close losses earlier in the week that added up to my struggles. Now I am back in profit for the daily picks with the Semi Finals tonight and the Finals tomorrow from the events in Montreal and Toronto.
On to the Picks:
Sam Stosur vs Agnieska Radwanska: I am going to back the Australian in this one to come through as the underdog.
Stosur has played well in her last 3 matches after struggling in Round 1, and I really think she has an excellent chance of making the Final. She is one of the few players on the WTA Tour that plays with a lot of heavy spin on her shots and that may make life difficult for a defensive player like Radwanska.
The other issue is the amount of matches Radwanska has had to play recently and fatigue must be an issue. Unlike a 2 week Grand Slam, the Pole has had very little rest after coming in from the West Coast of America on Monday following a win in San Diego.
This will eventually tell on Radwanska, and I think it is Stosur who will take advantage.
Mardy Fish - 2.5 games vs Janko Tipsarevic: This may look a risky play after Mardy Fish decided to lose his mind when serving in the 2nd set against Stanislas Wawrinka yesterday, but I think he has the edge over Tipsarevic on the hard courts of North America.
Janko Tipsarevic is a very good player, but still is very inconsistent when following strong performances with very poor ones. His serve is effective on the faster surfaces, but I think Fish attacking the net will eventually pay dividends and allow the American to move through in 2 sets.
The first set could be a tight affair before Fish takes complete control, and the fact he has won their last 3 meetings on different surfaces should give the American additional confidence and reach yet another Masters Final on North American soil.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 4.5 games vs Novak Djokovic: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is playing some of the best stuff in his career over the last couple of months and has transferred his form from Wimbledon onto the hard courts here in Montreal.
He will receive a lot of support from the French-speaking residents of this city and I think he is playing well enough to at least pose problems for Djokovic.
What can I say about the Serb that hasn't been said already this season? He has lifted his level to such a high standard and to lose just 1 match all season in this period of Men's tennis is something very very special.
In saying that, I think Tsonga has the game to give anyone problems, and if he is hitting as clean as he has been this week, I really feel the Frenchman will give Djokovic his biggest test of the tournament this week.
MY PICKS: Sam Stosur @ 2.20 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Mardy Fish - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 4.5 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 2.65 Units
Friday, 12 August 2011
Tennis Picks August 12th
The most frustrating element of this week has been how close some of these picks have been to winning, yet I find myself in a very bad position.
Both tournaments in Toronto and Montreal have seen a huge number of surprise results, and I guess that has to be expected considering a lot of the players are playing in their first events since Wimbledon. Still, I expect better from myself and am hoping I can have a strong end to the week to salvage some pride.
Now on to the Picks:
Sam Stosur - 3.5 games vs Roberta Vinci: If you had blindly backed Roberta Vinci in every match this week, you would have + 8.52 Units for every 1 Unit you have staked- it has been more than a surprise to see Vinci still participating in a tournament after struggling on the hard courts for much of her career.
I backed Ana Ivanovic to beat Vinci yesterday, but I am going back to the well with Sam Stosur, a player that looked in fine fettle in her win over Na Li yesterday.
Stosur plays her game with a lot of spin and that could cause problems for the 5 foot 4 inch Vinci, especially if she gets as much off the court as the Australian did yesterday. The hard courts should favour Stosur's game much more and I will expect her to come through in straight sets, 7-5 6-3.
Agnieska Radwanska vs Andrea Petkovic: I am a little concerned with the amount of tennis Radwanska has played recently, but she showed she is in fine form after winning the tournament in San Diego last week. The Polish Number 1 beat Petkovic en route to the trophy and I expect her consistent game will be too much for the German again.
Petkovic took advantage of an error-ridden game from Petra Kvitova yesterday, but she has lost all 3 previous meetings with Radwanska and finds it hard to break down the defence the Pole employs.
This could go the distance, but I think the edge will be with Radwanska at the end of the day.
Mardy Fish - 2 games vs Stanislas Wawrinka: Mardy Fish has been in fine form during the US hard court swing, winning the tournament in Atlanta before reaching the Final in LA, and I think he is favourite to come through the bottom half of the draw since Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal exited early.
Wawrinka has done well to reach this Quarter Final, but I can't shake the feeling he has taken advantage of a very straight forward draw especially after Murray went out.
I expect Fish will have a little too much for Wawrinka in this match, although it is possible it goes the distance. His serve is a little more solid, while he has the knowledge to end points quickly at the net. I would guess the pressure of keeping up with Fish will eventually be the difference and Fish will get through.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games vs Nicolas Almagro: While we saw Ivan Dodig and Kevin Anderson falter after knocking out players in the top 4 of the World Rankings, I do not expect the same of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who is finally beginning to play with the belief that he should be much higher in the rankings himself.
Many would have been watching out for Juan Martin Del Potro as a dark horse for the US Open, but I have now been converted into thinking Tsonga can do enough to make a serious splash at that event.
His win over Roger Federer showed his serve is working very effectively while his returning game has come on leaps and bounds in the last 8 months.
Nicolas Almagro is a tough competitor, but one who is much happier with the clay under his feet. He has a big serve, but his groundstrokes can be inconsistent and I think that is where Tsonga will have the edge.
Importantly, Tsonga has also won all 4 of their previous meetings, the last 3 all being on clay courts which I would have expected to suit Almagro a little more. I think Tsonga will come through tonight 6-3, 6-4 with a break in each set.
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games vs Galina Voskoboeva: Galina Voskoboeva is having a huge week- after qualifying for this event, she has gone on to beat Marion Bartoli and Maria Sharapova and has lost just 2 sets in her 5 matches this week.
This could be her toughest test of the week against Victoria Azarenka who has been playing some good stuff this week, losing just 3 games in 4 sets played. I expect the World Number 4 to have too much for Voskoboeva, and to run away with the match after a tight first set.
MY PICKS: Sam Stosur - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Agnieska Radwanska @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 2 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: - 6.41 Units
Both tournaments in Toronto and Montreal have seen a huge number of surprise results, and I guess that has to be expected considering a lot of the players are playing in their first events since Wimbledon. Still, I expect better from myself and am hoping I can have a strong end to the week to salvage some pride.
Now on to the Picks:
Sam Stosur - 3.5 games vs Roberta Vinci: If you had blindly backed Roberta Vinci in every match this week, you would have + 8.52 Units for every 1 Unit you have staked- it has been more than a surprise to see Vinci still participating in a tournament after struggling on the hard courts for much of her career.
I backed Ana Ivanovic to beat Vinci yesterday, but I am going back to the well with Sam Stosur, a player that looked in fine fettle in her win over Na Li yesterday.
Stosur plays her game with a lot of spin and that could cause problems for the 5 foot 4 inch Vinci, especially if she gets as much off the court as the Australian did yesterday. The hard courts should favour Stosur's game much more and I will expect her to come through in straight sets, 7-5 6-3.
Agnieska Radwanska vs Andrea Petkovic: I am a little concerned with the amount of tennis Radwanska has played recently, but she showed she is in fine form after winning the tournament in San Diego last week. The Polish Number 1 beat Petkovic en route to the trophy and I expect her consistent game will be too much for the German again.
Petkovic took advantage of an error-ridden game from Petra Kvitova yesterday, but she has lost all 3 previous meetings with Radwanska and finds it hard to break down the defence the Pole employs.
This could go the distance, but I think the edge will be with Radwanska at the end of the day.
Mardy Fish - 2 games vs Stanislas Wawrinka: Mardy Fish has been in fine form during the US hard court swing, winning the tournament in Atlanta before reaching the Final in LA, and I think he is favourite to come through the bottom half of the draw since Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal exited early.
Wawrinka has done well to reach this Quarter Final, but I can't shake the feeling he has taken advantage of a very straight forward draw especially after Murray went out.
I expect Fish will have a little too much for Wawrinka in this match, although it is possible it goes the distance. His serve is a little more solid, while he has the knowledge to end points quickly at the net. I would guess the pressure of keeping up with Fish will eventually be the difference and Fish will get through.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games vs Nicolas Almagro: While we saw Ivan Dodig and Kevin Anderson falter after knocking out players in the top 4 of the World Rankings, I do not expect the same of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who is finally beginning to play with the belief that he should be much higher in the rankings himself.
Many would have been watching out for Juan Martin Del Potro as a dark horse for the US Open, but I have now been converted into thinking Tsonga can do enough to make a serious splash at that event.
His win over Roger Federer showed his serve is working very effectively while his returning game has come on leaps and bounds in the last 8 months.
Nicolas Almagro is a tough competitor, but one who is much happier with the clay under his feet. He has a big serve, but his groundstrokes can be inconsistent and I think that is where Tsonga will have the edge.
Importantly, Tsonga has also won all 4 of their previous meetings, the last 3 all being on clay courts which I would have expected to suit Almagro a little more. I think Tsonga will come through tonight 6-3, 6-4 with a break in each set.
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games vs Galina Voskoboeva: Galina Voskoboeva is having a huge week- after qualifying for this event, she has gone on to beat Marion Bartoli and Maria Sharapova and has lost just 2 sets in her 5 matches this week.
This could be her toughest test of the week against Victoria Azarenka who has been playing some good stuff this week, losing just 3 games in 4 sets played. I expect the World Number 4 to have too much for Voskoboeva, and to run away with the match after a tight first set.
MY PICKS: Sam Stosur - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Agnieska Radwanska @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 2 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: - 6.41 Units
Saturday, 30 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 30th
I am going to put all my picks from the tournaments running in this one thread today but I will update the weekly totals separately as I have been doing all week.
It was a disappointing evening as both Maria Sharapova and Juan Martin Del Potro exited the tournaments. The latter is more disappointing as my biggest outright back of the week and it sounds like he was just not at the races.
Players like Ernests Gulbis can be very dangerous when they get hot, the problem for him is consistency to play like that against the lesser players.
Juan Carlos Ferrero is now the last man standing in terms of outright picks, but he would cover the entire outlay of the week if he can go on and retain his title in Umag- I just hope he can do it without the breakdown he had yesterday against Carlos Berlocq when losing 5 games in a row in the 2nd set and seeing his 5-1 lead disappear. The Spaniard did come through in straight sets, but it would have been nice if he had got off court a little earlier as he should have done.
Now on to the Picks:
Nicolas Almagro - 3.5 games vs Fernando Verdasco: This is a repeat of the Semi Final from last week in Hamburg and I would not be surprised if we get a similar result (last week Almagro won 6-1, 6-4).
Almagro has been solid all week behind his serve and even doing double duty yesterday did not slow him down when beating Jarkko Nieminen and Feliciano Lopez. If he continues to serve like that, he will put a lot of pressure on his compatriot today.
Fernando Verdasco did not play that well for 2 sets yesterday against Julien Benneteau and I just feel he is not quite at the races mentally this season. He seems to get through against the lesser players but struggles when faced against someone who is playing well.
The court has played fairly quickly all week and I feel that will give Almagro the edge too so I will back him to come through with a bit to spare.
Juan Carlos Ferrero - 2 games vs Alexandr Dolgopolov: If anyone followed the outright picks at the start of the week, we have already got Juan Carlos Ferrero at 4.00 to win this match and get through to the Final so they may not want to put a bit more on him here.
However, I do want to back him again as I feel the match up is more in Ferrero's favour than the layers think it is. He is fairly consistent from the back of the court and could grind down Dolgopolov here, although I would like to see the Spaniard take care of his serve a little more.
Dolgopolov has not been getting enough first serves in and that could give him more problems here against a player like Ferrero who has the big groundstrokes. A lot of second serves will allow Ferrero to dictate more points and that could be the edge to this match.
They also met here last year in the Quarter Final and Dolgopolov was beaten heavily and won just 3 games in the 2 sets they competed.
I dont think it will be a blowout like that, but I do think Ferrero will come through and reach his 3rd consecutive Final here.
Mardy Fish - 4.5 games vs Ryan Harrison: This is a repeat of the Semi Final from Atlanta last week and I dont see any reason to change my mind but to predict Mardy Fish to come through in 2 sets again.
Harrison has had the 2 most productive weeks of his short career so far and has showed the heart and belief to come through some tight spots, particularly in the 2nd set against Yen-Hsun Lu yesterday, but this is a huge step up from the quality of opponents he has played so far this week and I struggle to see how he can do enough to affect the Fish game.
The one thing in Harrison's favour is the amount of tennis Mardy Fish has played recently and whether that catches up with him here. However, Fish has been taking his fitness as seriously as he ever has and I am not sure if his losing energy is just clutching at straws.
I just think the Fish game is too big at this moment in time for the improving Harrison and I think a similar scoreline to last weeks 6-2, 6-4 could be in the offing.
Ernests Gulbis - 3 games vs Alex Bogomolov: This could be the case of 'after the Lord Mayor's show' for Ernests Gulbis following his impressive straight sets win over Juan Martin Del Potro, but I am of the feeling that the Latvian is a momentum player that could be tough to stop this week.
He has played some decent tennis this week to get this far and was more than a little unfortunate to lose to James Blake in the 1st Round in Atlanta last week and Gulbis' better performances have generally come on the hard courts in recent seasons.
Gulbis has all the attributes in his game to be a good hard court player, but sometimes it is the thing between his ears that lets him down. The confidence from the win over Del Potro should give him the boost to reach the Final this week.
Alex Bogomolov is a journeyman player having his best year on the main tour so will not be easy pickings. He has reached the Quarter Finals in 3 of the last 5 tournaments he has played and also made it through to the 3rd Round at Wimbledon in that time so is in decent form.
However, I think it could be telling that he has had a few problems with the bigger hitters on the tour and Gulbis will fit into that category. Bogomolov has lost to John Isner, Gilles Muller and Tomas Berdych in recent weeks and I think the pressure of trying to hold serve could be too much for him today.
Gulbis is not the best person to trust, but I think he should be too strong for the American tonight.
MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 3.5 games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Carlos Ferrero - 2 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 4.5 games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Ernests Gulbis - 3 games @ 1.83 10Bet (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE GSTAAD/UMAG: + 5.96 Units
WEEKLY UPDATE STANFORD/LA: - 4.38 Units
Saturday, 23 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 23rd Atlanta Semi Finals
I had a strong day in Atlanta yesterday as all 3 picks came in to push the profits up for the week.
Mardy Fish is now 1 win away from reaching the Final and bringing in part 1 of my outright picks. I had Fish e/w at the start of the week and he is now rightly the favourite to retain his title. Ryan Harrison is no pushover, but I expect the top ranked American to put the rising star in his place here and progress through to the Final.
The other Semi Final is more of a pick 'em than I think many feel it will be. John Isner destroyed Yen-Hsun Lu yesterday, but Gilles Muller is a different sort of threat and one that can surprise the American in front of his local support.
Now on to the Picks:
John Isner-Gilles Muller Over 22.5 games: As I said above, I actually think this is a tougher match for Isner than some may think and I do believe we will see a tight contest between the two. They actually met in the 2nd Round last year here in Atlanta which saw Isner come through in 3 sets (4-6, 7-6, 7-6).
The good thing about this total is the same as yesterdays match between Muller and Kevin Anderson- a 7-6, 6-4 scoreline will cover the spread.
Both men have been serving well and it would not surprise me if this actually goes the distance this afternoon.
Mardy Fish - 4.5 games vs Ryan Harrison: I expect Fish will have too much for Harrison in the course of this game and will be able to power through him after a tight first set.
This can be covered with an early break in both sets as long as Fish is serving first. However, I am picking it because I think Harrison does give up chances on the serve and I can see Fish winning one set with a double break and that should be good enough to see him through.
Fish's overall game should be good enough and he has plenty of motivation knowing he can keep his seeded position high at the US Open with a couple of good performances here in Atlanta and in Los Angeles next week.
MY PICKS: John Isner-Gilles Muller Over 22.5 games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 13.38 Units (All picks updated)
Mardy Fish is now 1 win away from reaching the Final and bringing in part 1 of my outright picks. I had Fish e/w at the start of the week and he is now rightly the favourite to retain his title. Ryan Harrison is no pushover, but I expect the top ranked American to put the rising star in his place here and progress through to the Final.
The other Semi Final is more of a pick 'em than I think many feel it will be. John Isner destroyed Yen-Hsun Lu yesterday, but Gilles Muller is a different sort of threat and one that can surprise the American in front of his local support.
Now on to the Picks:
John Isner-Gilles Muller Over 22.5 games: As I said above, I actually think this is a tougher match for Isner than some may think and I do believe we will see a tight contest between the two. They actually met in the 2nd Round last year here in Atlanta which saw Isner come through in 3 sets (4-6, 7-6, 7-6).
The good thing about this total is the same as yesterdays match between Muller and Kevin Anderson- a 7-6, 6-4 scoreline will cover the spread.
Both men have been serving well and it would not surprise me if this actually goes the distance this afternoon.
Mardy Fish - 4.5 games vs Ryan Harrison: I expect Fish will have too much for Harrison in the course of this game and will be able to power through him after a tight first set.
This can be covered with an early break in both sets as long as Fish is serving first. However, I am picking it because I think Harrison does give up chances on the serve and I can see Fish winning one set with a double break and that should be good enough to see him through.
Fish's overall game should be good enough and he has plenty of motivation knowing he can keep his seeded position high at the US Open with a couple of good performances here in Atlanta and in Los Angeles next week.
MY PICKS: John Isner-Gilles Muller Over 22.5 games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 13.38 Units (All picks updated)
Friday, 22 July 2011
Tennis Picks 22nd July ATP Atlanta Quarter Finals
It was not a good day for the picks in Atlanta last night with both Lleyton Hewitt and Xavier Malisse losing matches they should not be. I did take a silver lining from that disappointment though as both of those players were in Mardy Fish's section, my outright pick of the week.
Fish now faces Somdev Devvarman and then the winner of the Ryan Harrison-Rajeev Ram match to reach the Final and I very much expect that to happen.
We have reached the Quarter Finals and it is here that you can really tell a stellar field did not get together as the likes of Yen-Hsun Lu are also still in the tournament.
Thunderstorms are expected today so there could be a couple of rain delays. The other point to mention here is that the matches start at noon local time rather than the 4pm starts they have been having all week.
Now on to the Picks:
Gilles Muller-Kevin Anderson Over 22.5 total games: Both of these guys are reliant on a big serve on which they can build the rest of their game. The best thing about the total games market is this can be covered even if one of the players was to win in straight sets by a scoreline of 7-6, 6-4.
I do expect at least one tie break to be played, as happened in their only previous meeting, and it is also possible that the match could go the distance.
Neither is a great returner, but Anderson has an edge in that department, so Gilles Muller must serve better than he did when defeating Robby Ginepri.
I expect a lot of short points between the two players and I do favour Anderson to eventually come out on top- I just hope its a tough match no matter who wins.
Mardy Fish - 4.5 games vs Somdev Devvarman: I had a couple of concerns about how Mardy Fish would rebound from losing 2 Davis Cup ties in 5 sets last week, but all that was put to rest as he completely dominated Nicolas Mahut last night and it is no surprise to see the American is the favourite to retain his title from last season.
Somdev Devvarman had a real tussle in Round 1 with Ryan Sweeting, but then had a comfortable win over Tatsuma Ito last night. However, this test is a significant raise in level for the Indian player and I feel his serve is too prone to breaking down to have a real impact.
Fish will create a lot of pressure on Devvarman with his strength of shot while the serve is more consistent and has a 2-0 head to head record against his opponent, winning both matches on grass and losing just 6 games in 4 sets.
I would expect the Number 1 seed to come through with a scoreline of 6-4, 6-2 or something similar.
John Isner - 3.5 games vs Yen-Hsun Lu: John Isner looked a little tired in his match with James Blake, something that has to be considered unusual considering he had at least 10 days off since his last match. It may also have been down to the mental pressure of having to hold serve in what was a tough encounter.
This time Isner should be able to see more chances against Yen-Hsun Lu, a player that has taken advantage of a soft section of the draw although has had a bit of trouble in doing so.
Lu is a tough question on his day, but has struggled for form on the main tour all season. He is a decent hard court player but he will be under immense pressure to hold serve if Isner is playing to form.
That could lead to the pressure points and I can see a break in each set for the big American to see him through to the Semi Finals.
MY PICKS: Gilles Muller-Kevin Anderson Over 22.5 total games @ 1.90 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Bodog (2 Units)
John Isner - 3.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 9.88 Units (All picks in from 21st July)
Fish now faces Somdev Devvarman and then the winner of the Ryan Harrison-Rajeev Ram match to reach the Final and I very much expect that to happen.
We have reached the Quarter Finals and it is here that you can really tell a stellar field did not get together as the likes of Yen-Hsun Lu are also still in the tournament.
Thunderstorms are expected today so there could be a couple of rain delays. The other point to mention here is that the matches start at noon local time rather than the 4pm starts they have been having all week.
Now on to the Picks:
Gilles Muller-Kevin Anderson Over 22.5 total games: Both of these guys are reliant on a big serve on which they can build the rest of their game. The best thing about the total games market is this can be covered even if one of the players was to win in straight sets by a scoreline of 7-6, 6-4.
I do expect at least one tie break to be played, as happened in their only previous meeting, and it is also possible that the match could go the distance.
Neither is a great returner, but Anderson has an edge in that department, so Gilles Muller must serve better than he did when defeating Robby Ginepri.
I expect a lot of short points between the two players and I do favour Anderson to eventually come out on top- I just hope its a tough match no matter who wins.
Mardy Fish - 4.5 games vs Somdev Devvarman: I had a couple of concerns about how Mardy Fish would rebound from losing 2 Davis Cup ties in 5 sets last week, but all that was put to rest as he completely dominated Nicolas Mahut last night and it is no surprise to see the American is the favourite to retain his title from last season.
Somdev Devvarman had a real tussle in Round 1 with Ryan Sweeting, but then had a comfortable win over Tatsuma Ito last night. However, this test is a significant raise in level for the Indian player and I feel his serve is too prone to breaking down to have a real impact.
Fish will create a lot of pressure on Devvarman with his strength of shot while the serve is more consistent and has a 2-0 head to head record against his opponent, winning both matches on grass and losing just 6 games in 4 sets.
I would expect the Number 1 seed to come through with a scoreline of 6-4, 6-2 or something similar.
John Isner - 3.5 games vs Yen-Hsun Lu: John Isner looked a little tired in his match with James Blake, something that has to be considered unusual considering he had at least 10 days off since his last match. It may also have been down to the mental pressure of having to hold serve in what was a tough encounter.
This time Isner should be able to see more chances against Yen-Hsun Lu, a player that has taken advantage of a soft section of the draw although has had a bit of trouble in doing so.
Lu is a tough question on his day, but has struggled for form on the main tour all season. He is a decent hard court player but he will be under immense pressure to hold serve if Isner is playing to form.
That could lead to the pressure points and I can see a break in each set for the big American to see him through to the Semi Finals.
MY PICKS: Gilles Muller-Kevin Anderson Over 22.5 total games @ 1.90 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Bodog (2 Units)
John Isner - 3.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 9.88 Units (All picks in from 21st July)
Friday, 8 July 2011
Davis Cup Quarter Final Picks- July 8th 2011
It wasn't a great day for me yesterday with both picks failing to deliver. Juan Monaco dominated his match against Andrey Golubev and was never in any real danger of dropping a set, while Edouard Roger-Vasselin lost after winning the first set of his match with Tobias Kamke.
However, both picks were with minimum stakes as I was not overly confident in either and I hope to have a better day as the 3 other Davis Cup Quarter Final ties begin.
So without further ado, it is on to the Picks:
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games vs Florian Mayer: This match is the opening Rubber of the Germany-France match and will be played on clay courts, but I am still a little surprised that Gasquet is being considered a tight favourite to win the match.
As I have mentioned before on the blog, Florian Mayer can be an awkward player to get used to as he has a very unique style of playing and serving. The German has had a good season so far, but I think his World Number 20 Ranking is a little bit too kind to his ability.
Mayer's serve is a weakness and that is an area Gasquet will look to expose. He is also only 4-4 in Davis Cup matches in the past, although Mayer does hold a 4-1 record on matches played on clay. Generally his best results to come on clay.
Gasquet, on the other hand, is once again establishing himself as one of the better players on the ATP Tour and is now just outside the top 10. He has performed admirably on the clay this season, and it has taken the likes of Rafael Nadal (twice) and Novak Djokovic to prevent him having more success.
The French Number 2 will be making his first Davis Cup singles appearance since 2008 and will hope he can improve his 5-5 record (1-2 on clay).
The head to head is 1-1, with Gasquet winning the most recent meeting in 2007.
Gasquet should have the edge in the match in terms of serve and overall groundstrokes. If he can ignore the vocal home support Mayer will receive, I think he can get through in 3 or 4 sets. Mayer is also capable of going walkabouts in sets as can be seen in recent defeats to Alejandro Falla and Xavier Malisse, so Gasquet could cover the spread thanks to a 6-2/6-1 set.
Mardy Fish - 1.5 sets vs Feliciano Lopez: This is also the opening Rubber of the Quarter Final between the USA and Spain and could set the tempo for the entire tie.
Mardy Fish is the top rated American coming into this tie and pulled out of the tournament at Newport where he was the defending Champion so he could take part here. Fish is having a very good season and has all the tools to be very effective in what is being described as a much faster hard court than many of the players will be used to.
That wont bother Feliciano Lopez too much if that is the case, especially as it could make his serve even more effective. Lopez got the nod to represent Spain ahead of good friend Fernando Verdasco after reaching the Quarter Finals at Wimbledon.
Lopez will make life difficult with his serve, especially if he gets it firing early in the match, but I just feel Fish moves better and is perhaps the more consistent player of the two, especially when it comes to the crunch.
Fish may also hold the mental edge as he has won the last 3 meetings between the two players, one of those on the hard courts of Miami, after losing the first 2 meetings. In fact, Fish has won the last 6 sets between the players.
We could see a couple of tie breakers here to separate the players, but I feel it will be Fish who is too consistent and may just 'batter' Lopez in 4 sets.
Potito Starace - 5.5 games vs Blaz Kavcic: The Italians meet the Slovenians at home on the comfort on the clay courts and that should give Potito Starace a big advantage in this matchup. I know Starace is a player that predominantly does his best work when on the red dirt underneath his feet and he will have the full support of the crowd behind him, a crowd that should have been warmed up with this the 2nd of the Rubbers to be played tomorrow.
Blaz Kavcic is more than capable of playing on clay courts, but could be feeling additional pressure if Slovenia are already 1-0 down in the tie.
Starace also holds a straights sets win over Kavcic on the clay courts from last season and I think he is more than capable of winning this one in straight sets and covering the spread in the process.
Gael Monfils win 3-1 in sets vs Phillip Kohlschreiber: This is a tough match for Gael Monfils who likes to entertain the crowds, but will not be receiving much support in this tie. He meets a player in Phillip Kohlschreiber that he has enjoyed considerable success against in the past, although their last meeting was won by the German in straight sets(also played in Germany).
However, Monfils seems to raise his game when playing for his country and I expect him to be focused on this match. His retrieving skills can make it tough for Kohlschreiber to break him down and I feel the clay courts will aid Monfils in frustrating the crowd and his opponent.
Monfils holds a Davis Cup win over Kohlschreiber, beating the German in straight sets last season, but this is a tougher prospect and I definitely see Kohlschreiber getting at least one set on the board.
I just feel Monfils is too strong a player for him, and he will come through in 4 sets to put France in a commanding position on Day 1.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 1.5 sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Potito Starace - 5.5 games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
WEEKLY UPDATE: - 2 Units
However, both picks were with minimum stakes as I was not overly confident in either and I hope to have a better day as the 3 other Davis Cup Quarter Final ties begin.
So without further ado, it is on to the Picks:
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games vs Florian Mayer: This match is the opening Rubber of the Germany-France match and will be played on clay courts, but I am still a little surprised that Gasquet is being considered a tight favourite to win the match.
As I have mentioned before on the blog, Florian Mayer can be an awkward player to get used to as he has a very unique style of playing and serving. The German has had a good season so far, but I think his World Number 20 Ranking is a little bit too kind to his ability.
Mayer's serve is a weakness and that is an area Gasquet will look to expose. He is also only 4-4 in Davis Cup matches in the past, although Mayer does hold a 4-1 record on matches played on clay. Generally his best results to come on clay.
Gasquet, on the other hand, is once again establishing himself as one of the better players on the ATP Tour and is now just outside the top 10. He has performed admirably on the clay this season, and it has taken the likes of Rafael Nadal (twice) and Novak Djokovic to prevent him having more success.
The French Number 2 will be making his first Davis Cup singles appearance since 2008 and will hope he can improve his 5-5 record (1-2 on clay).
The head to head is 1-1, with Gasquet winning the most recent meeting in 2007.
Gasquet should have the edge in the match in terms of serve and overall groundstrokes. If he can ignore the vocal home support Mayer will receive, I think he can get through in 3 or 4 sets. Mayer is also capable of going walkabouts in sets as can be seen in recent defeats to Alejandro Falla and Xavier Malisse, so Gasquet could cover the spread thanks to a 6-2/6-1 set.
Mardy Fish - 1.5 sets vs Feliciano Lopez: This is also the opening Rubber of the Quarter Final between the USA and Spain and could set the tempo for the entire tie.
Mardy Fish is the top rated American coming into this tie and pulled out of the tournament at Newport where he was the defending Champion so he could take part here. Fish is having a very good season and has all the tools to be very effective in what is being described as a much faster hard court than many of the players will be used to.
That wont bother Feliciano Lopez too much if that is the case, especially as it could make his serve even more effective. Lopez got the nod to represent Spain ahead of good friend Fernando Verdasco after reaching the Quarter Finals at Wimbledon.
Lopez will make life difficult with his serve, especially if he gets it firing early in the match, but I just feel Fish moves better and is perhaps the more consistent player of the two, especially when it comes to the crunch.
Fish may also hold the mental edge as he has won the last 3 meetings between the two players, one of those on the hard courts of Miami, after losing the first 2 meetings. In fact, Fish has won the last 6 sets between the players.
We could see a couple of tie breakers here to separate the players, but I feel it will be Fish who is too consistent and may just 'batter' Lopez in 4 sets.
Potito Starace - 5.5 games vs Blaz Kavcic: The Italians meet the Slovenians at home on the comfort on the clay courts and that should give Potito Starace a big advantage in this matchup. I know Starace is a player that predominantly does his best work when on the red dirt underneath his feet and he will have the full support of the crowd behind him, a crowd that should have been warmed up with this the 2nd of the Rubbers to be played tomorrow.
Blaz Kavcic is more than capable of playing on clay courts, but could be feeling additional pressure if Slovenia are already 1-0 down in the tie.
Starace also holds a straights sets win over Kavcic on the clay courts from last season and I think he is more than capable of winning this one in straight sets and covering the spread in the process.
Gael Monfils win 3-1 in sets vs Phillip Kohlschreiber: This is a tough match for Gael Monfils who likes to entertain the crowds, but will not be receiving much support in this tie. He meets a player in Phillip Kohlschreiber that he has enjoyed considerable success against in the past, although their last meeting was won by the German in straight sets(also played in Germany).
However, Monfils seems to raise his game when playing for his country and I expect him to be focused on this match. His retrieving skills can make it tough for Kohlschreiber to break him down and I feel the clay courts will aid Monfils in frustrating the crowd and his opponent.
Monfils holds a Davis Cup win over Kohlschreiber, beating the German in straight sets last season, but this is a tougher prospect and I definitely see Kohlschreiber getting at least one set on the board.
I just feel Monfils is too strong a player for him, and he will come through in 4 sets to put France in a commanding position on Day 1.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 1.5 sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Potito Starace - 5.5 games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
WEEKLY UPDATE: - 2 Units
Wednesday, 22 June 2011
Wimbledon Day 3 Picks
Yesterday was a day of fluctuating fortunes, but one that ended in a positive manner. Wimbledon is proving to be a tough tournament to judge this year, further highlighted by the fact I have just one pick today.
I have been thinking about the picks all evening, and I just cant find a clear enough edge to pick any more than the one I settled on.
So, without further ado, on to Day 3 Picks:
Men's Treble: Stanislas Wawrinka vs Simone Bolelli, Mardy Fish vs Denis Istomin and Feliciano Lopez vs Rainer Schuettler: I have picked this treble for the following reasons-
Stanislas Wawrinka has plenty of experience on the grass courts and did what he had to do to get through one Italian, Potito Starace, already in this tournament. This time he meets Simone Bolelli, a player that has struggled for form, although can still present a danger.
Wawrinka holds a 2-0 head to head record, winning all 5 sets contested, and should come through in 3 tight sets.
Mardy Fish is looking to make his first real impact in SW19 and has all the tools to do well on the grass. His serve looked strong in the 1st Round and he meets Denis Istomin, a player struggling for form and had a 1-9 record before recording a win over Philipp Kohlschreiber in the 1st Round.
Fish should exert enough pressure on Istomin to get the breaks to win this in 3 or 4 sets.
Feliciano Lopez is a established grass court player who will feel he can go deep in this years tournament as played so well against Andy Roddick at Queens. His game is built to perform on this kind of surface and he should pose Rainer Schuettler plenty of problems.
To make matters tougher for Schuettler, he has a 1-7 head to head record with Lopez, losing the last 6 meetings. Lopez has also previously beaten Schuettler in 4 sets here at Wimbledon and I can see something similar this year.
MY PICKS: Men's Treble- Stanislas Wawrinka, Mardy Fish and Feliciano Lopez @ 1.97 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Women's Treble- Tsvetana Pironkova, Lucie Safarova and Julie Goerges @ 3.24 BetFred (1 Unit) Still Running from Day 2 with just Julie Goerges to play
TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 0.59 Units (+ 1.59 Units Day 2)
I have been thinking about the picks all evening, and I just cant find a clear enough edge to pick any more than the one I settled on.
So, without further ado, on to Day 3 Picks:
Men's Treble: Stanislas Wawrinka vs Simone Bolelli, Mardy Fish vs Denis Istomin and Feliciano Lopez vs Rainer Schuettler: I have picked this treble for the following reasons-
Stanislas Wawrinka has plenty of experience on the grass courts and did what he had to do to get through one Italian, Potito Starace, already in this tournament. This time he meets Simone Bolelli, a player that has struggled for form, although can still present a danger.
Wawrinka holds a 2-0 head to head record, winning all 5 sets contested, and should come through in 3 tight sets.
Mardy Fish is looking to make his first real impact in SW19 and has all the tools to do well on the grass. His serve looked strong in the 1st Round and he meets Denis Istomin, a player struggling for form and had a 1-9 record before recording a win over Philipp Kohlschreiber in the 1st Round.
Fish should exert enough pressure on Istomin to get the breaks to win this in 3 or 4 sets.
Feliciano Lopez is a established grass court player who will feel he can go deep in this years tournament as played so well against Andy Roddick at Queens. His game is built to perform on this kind of surface and he should pose Rainer Schuettler plenty of problems.
To make matters tougher for Schuettler, he has a 1-7 head to head record with Lopez, losing the last 6 meetings. Lopez has also previously beaten Schuettler in 4 sets here at Wimbledon and I can see something similar this year.
MY PICKS: Men's Treble- Stanislas Wawrinka, Mardy Fish and Feliciano Lopez @ 1.97 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Women's Treble- Tsvetana Pironkova, Lucie Safarova and Julie Goerges @ 3.24 BetFred (1 Unit) Still Running from Day 2 with just Julie Goerges to play
TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 0.59 Units (+ 1.59 Units Day 2)
Saturday, 28 May 2011
French Open Day 7 Picks
Another interesting day has gone by at the French Open 2011 and the Men's draw is shaping up particularly nicely.
Roger Federer once again made easy progress through the draw although I do expect him to be tested a little more by Stanislas Wawrinka in the next round. Federer has quietly gone about his business as everyone spent more time talking about Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. Federer has won here before and looks more than comfortable with his situation right now.
Another player making calm and easy progress through the draw is David Ferrer, arguably the 3rd most consistent performer on the red dirt this season behind Nadal and Djokovic.
Ferrer looked like he was coming to the end of a very productive career at the end of 2009, but has shown some real talent over the last 18 months as his window for winning a Slam closes rapidly. I dont believe Ferrer will win here, but a match with Federer in the Quarter Final is certain to excite.
The other big news of the day in the Men's draw was the meeting between Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro. First the match had to be moved from the Philippe Chatrier court because of the long nature of the first 3 matches on that court- that in turn caused disruptions as fans clamoured to get into the Suzanne Lenglen court to watch the game of the day.
I have stated before that Del Potro should have been in the position Djokovic is in if he had not injured his wrist and been forced to miss almost a year of action. The first 2 sets of the match did not disappoint and I am intrigued if Del Potro can continue his level of play and upset Djokovic.
Personally I am excited to see Del Potro playing the type of tennis he is- I did not expect his best stuff until the Summer hard court swing and the US Open, yet he is well on his way and is going to be a real danger for the rest of the season even if he does not complete the surprise win tomorrow.
The Women's draw saw the Number 1 seed, Caroline Wozniaki, get thumped out of the tournament by a Daniela Hantuchova playing her best tennis. That means the top 2 seeds are out and the draw remains open for anyone to win.
Wozniaki once again proved she is anything but the best player in the World and it must have the WTA Tour questioning their ranking system.
The picks did not have a good day yesterday with the Wozniaki defeat. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez was another disappointment, but fortunately Federer's easy win over Janko Tipsarevic left me with a small loss on the day and the Djokovic 3-1 set bet still running.
On to Day 7 Picks:
Robin Soderling - 7.5 games vs Leonardo Mayer: Robin Soderling should be very happy with the conditions expected at Roland Garros tomorrow and must be pleased with his draw as he faced Leonard Mayer, a player that has played a lot of tennis over the last 10 days after missing weeks at a time.
Mayer might be ranked outside the top 200, but he is a clay court specialist with his best results coming on the surface. Last season it took Marin Cilic 5 sets to beat him here in Paris.
Mayer also had a solid win over Marcos Baghdatis in the last round but I do wonder if the lack of competitive tennis over the last 6 weeks is going to take a toll on him against Soderling.
They have met once before when Soderling won 3 tight sets in the Davis Cup last season on an indoor hard court. However, the Swede has looked good so far in the tournament and I expect he will come through in straight sets and cover the spread.
Ivan Ljubicic v Fernando Verdasco Over 38.5 games: Both of these men have made relatively smooth progress through to this Round 3 meeting with the winner getting the 'reward' of a likely meeting with Rafael Nadal in Round 4.
Both have big games and could be rewarded by the conditions in Paris this year. The chances for a tie break or 2 are large with the way they can serve, while Fernando Verdasco is prone to mental lapses that costs him sets.
This has a tight 4 setter written all over it, and could finish either way. However, the Over 38.5 games could come into play if the tie breaks occur as I expect they will.
Mardy Fish vs Gilles Simon: Now I could be reading this matchup completely wrong, but I was pleasantly surprised to see Mardy Fish being quoted as the big underdog in this match.
Fish has improved tenfold on clay courts, as his loss of weight has improved his movement around the court. The conditions here also favour Fish's game, with the balls flying through the air and making it much more like a hard court meeting.
Simon will look to make balls all day, but Fish has the edge when it comes to serving and with his groundstrokes. Simon definitely has the better movement and his defensive game could extract mistakes from the Fish racquet.
It is possible this match could be dragged into a 5th set as they are evenly matched, so I cant see why Fish is the big underdog.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 sets @ 3.75 (1 Unit) Still Running from Yesterday
Robin Soderling - 7.5 games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivan Ljubicic-Fernando Verdasco Over 38.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mardy Fish @ 2.62 Unibet (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 14.02 Units (- 0.8 Units Day 6)
Roger Federer once again made easy progress through the draw although I do expect him to be tested a little more by Stanislas Wawrinka in the next round. Federer has quietly gone about his business as everyone spent more time talking about Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. Federer has won here before and looks more than comfortable with his situation right now.
Another player making calm and easy progress through the draw is David Ferrer, arguably the 3rd most consistent performer on the red dirt this season behind Nadal and Djokovic.
Ferrer looked like he was coming to the end of a very productive career at the end of 2009, but has shown some real talent over the last 18 months as his window for winning a Slam closes rapidly. I dont believe Ferrer will win here, but a match with Federer in the Quarter Final is certain to excite.
The other big news of the day in the Men's draw was the meeting between Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro. First the match had to be moved from the Philippe Chatrier court because of the long nature of the first 3 matches on that court- that in turn caused disruptions as fans clamoured to get into the Suzanne Lenglen court to watch the game of the day.
I have stated before that Del Potro should have been in the position Djokovic is in if he had not injured his wrist and been forced to miss almost a year of action. The first 2 sets of the match did not disappoint and I am intrigued if Del Potro can continue his level of play and upset Djokovic.
Personally I am excited to see Del Potro playing the type of tennis he is- I did not expect his best stuff until the Summer hard court swing and the US Open, yet he is well on his way and is going to be a real danger for the rest of the season even if he does not complete the surprise win tomorrow.
The Women's draw saw the Number 1 seed, Caroline Wozniaki, get thumped out of the tournament by a Daniela Hantuchova playing her best tennis. That means the top 2 seeds are out and the draw remains open for anyone to win.
Wozniaki once again proved she is anything but the best player in the World and it must have the WTA Tour questioning their ranking system.
The picks did not have a good day yesterday with the Wozniaki defeat. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez was another disappointment, but fortunately Federer's easy win over Janko Tipsarevic left me with a small loss on the day and the Djokovic 3-1 set bet still running.
On to Day 7 Picks:
Robin Soderling - 7.5 games vs Leonardo Mayer: Robin Soderling should be very happy with the conditions expected at Roland Garros tomorrow and must be pleased with his draw as he faced Leonard Mayer, a player that has played a lot of tennis over the last 10 days after missing weeks at a time.
Mayer might be ranked outside the top 200, but he is a clay court specialist with his best results coming on the surface. Last season it took Marin Cilic 5 sets to beat him here in Paris.
Mayer also had a solid win over Marcos Baghdatis in the last round but I do wonder if the lack of competitive tennis over the last 6 weeks is going to take a toll on him against Soderling.
They have met once before when Soderling won 3 tight sets in the Davis Cup last season on an indoor hard court. However, the Swede has looked good so far in the tournament and I expect he will come through in straight sets and cover the spread.
Ivan Ljubicic v Fernando Verdasco Over 38.5 games: Both of these men have made relatively smooth progress through to this Round 3 meeting with the winner getting the 'reward' of a likely meeting with Rafael Nadal in Round 4.
Both have big games and could be rewarded by the conditions in Paris this year. The chances for a tie break or 2 are large with the way they can serve, while Fernando Verdasco is prone to mental lapses that costs him sets.
This has a tight 4 setter written all over it, and could finish either way. However, the Over 38.5 games could come into play if the tie breaks occur as I expect they will.
Mardy Fish vs Gilles Simon: Now I could be reading this matchup completely wrong, but I was pleasantly surprised to see Mardy Fish being quoted as the big underdog in this match.
Fish has improved tenfold on clay courts, as his loss of weight has improved his movement around the court. The conditions here also favour Fish's game, with the balls flying through the air and making it much more like a hard court meeting.
Simon will look to make balls all day, but Fish has the edge when it comes to serving and with his groundstrokes. Simon definitely has the better movement and his defensive game could extract mistakes from the Fish racquet.
It is possible this match could be dragged into a 5th set as they are evenly matched, so I cant see why Fish is the big underdog.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 sets @ 3.75 (1 Unit) Still Running from Yesterday
Robin Soderling - 7.5 games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivan Ljubicic-Fernando Verdasco Over 38.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mardy Fish @ 2.62 Unibet (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 14.02 Units (- 0.8 Units Day 6)
Thursday, 26 May 2011
French Open Day 5 Picks
The tournament at Roland Garros is hotting up and its only going to get better as Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro set up a 3rd Round clash on Friday. My initial thoughts on that game is Del Potro has the game to push the Serb if the conditions remain warm, but I do think Djokovic will be too consistent right now.
The biggest issue will be if Del Potro forces Djokovic into a long match, something that may have an affect as the tournament progresses into its 2nd week.
Roger Federer looked solid enough although his challenger was not really up to par here.
The Women's draw saw Julia Goerges play solid tennis to progress against Lucie Safarova, although the German will have to up her game if she wants to pose a genuine threat in this tournament. Still, I would rather be backing her than Caroline Wozniaki, surely one of the worst World Number 1's in recent times.
In terms of the picks, it was the best day of the tournament so far as 4 of the 5 picks identified came in as winners. To make it more productive, the lowest priced winner was priced at 2.00.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez almost blew the Men's treble I had picked out, being forced to win 13-11 in the 5th set to get through.
Now on to the 5th Day Picks:
Mardy Fish - 1.5 sets vs Robin Haase: I actually like Haase as a player, even before he took Rafa Nadal to 5 sets at Wimbledon last year, but I think the Dutchman is playing one of the most improved players on a clay court in the form of Mardy Fish.
Fish has also famously lost 14kg of weight which can be seen with the way he moves on the court. The faster conditions will also aid him here, and I think he wins the match. There is the danger he drops 1 set here, but I think otherwise Mardy should be able to come through in 3 or 4 sets.
Ivan Ljubicic - 1.5 sets vs Sam Querrey: The big serving American has not had the best of seasons so far but is unlikely to perform under better conditions on a clay court. Querrey had an impressive 4 set win over Philip Kohlschreiber to reach the 2nd Round but now plays a much more dangerous opponent.
I am not usually a big fan of backing Ivan Ljubicic as he usually plays a lot better when I am NOT backing him to win. However, I feel he has a distinct advantage in the match up on this surface and I do expect him to move forward while dropping possibly just 1 set in the match.
Gilles Simon - 6 games vs Jeremy Chardy: This is yet another all-French match and will be last on the Phillipe Chatrier court on Day 5. I was a little surprised that Simon was not favoured even more as Chardy has struggled this season so far.
Chardy likes to hit his winners but that can be a problem against someone like Simon who can make a lot of balls. With a lack of consistency from Chardy, I expect Simon will get through while covering the spread.
If Simon wins by exactly 6 games, we will get our stake back.
As you can see, I don't have as many picks as yesterday simply because I cant find enough value in the Day 5 games. Hopefully the 3 picks I have identified can bring in another tidy profit.
MY PICKS: Mardy Fish - 1.5 sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivan Ljubicic - 1.5 sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 6 games @ 1.95 Bodog (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 8.90 Units
The biggest issue will be if Del Potro forces Djokovic into a long match, something that may have an affect as the tournament progresses into its 2nd week.
Roger Federer looked solid enough although his challenger was not really up to par here.
The Women's draw saw Julia Goerges play solid tennis to progress against Lucie Safarova, although the German will have to up her game if she wants to pose a genuine threat in this tournament. Still, I would rather be backing her than Caroline Wozniaki, surely one of the worst World Number 1's in recent times.
In terms of the picks, it was the best day of the tournament so far as 4 of the 5 picks identified came in as winners. To make it more productive, the lowest priced winner was priced at 2.00.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez almost blew the Men's treble I had picked out, being forced to win 13-11 in the 5th set to get through.
Now on to the 5th Day Picks:
Mardy Fish - 1.5 sets vs Robin Haase: I actually like Haase as a player, even before he took Rafa Nadal to 5 sets at Wimbledon last year, but I think the Dutchman is playing one of the most improved players on a clay court in the form of Mardy Fish.
Fish has also famously lost 14kg of weight which can be seen with the way he moves on the court. The faster conditions will also aid him here, and I think he wins the match. There is the danger he drops 1 set here, but I think otherwise Mardy should be able to come through in 3 or 4 sets.
Ivan Ljubicic - 1.5 sets vs Sam Querrey: The big serving American has not had the best of seasons so far but is unlikely to perform under better conditions on a clay court. Querrey had an impressive 4 set win over Philip Kohlschreiber to reach the 2nd Round but now plays a much more dangerous opponent.
I am not usually a big fan of backing Ivan Ljubicic as he usually plays a lot better when I am NOT backing him to win. However, I feel he has a distinct advantage in the match up on this surface and I do expect him to move forward while dropping possibly just 1 set in the match.
Gilles Simon - 6 games vs Jeremy Chardy: This is yet another all-French match and will be last on the Phillipe Chatrier court on Day 5. I was a little surprised that Simon was not favoured even more as Chardy has struggled this season so far.
Chardy likes to hit his winners but that can be a problem against someone like Simon who can make a lot of balls. With a lack of consistency from Chardy, I expect Simon will get through while covering the spread.
If Simon wins by exactly 6 games, we will get our stake back.
As you can see, I don't have as many picks as yesterday simply because I cant find enough value in the Day 5 games. Hopefully the 3 picks I have identified can bring in another tidy profit.
MY PICKS: Mardy Fish - 1.5 sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivan Ljubicic - 1.5 sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 6 games @ 1.95 Bodog (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 8.90 Units
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