French Open Day 7 Picks

Another interesting day has gone by at the French Open 2011 and the Men's draw is shaping up particularly nicely.

Roger Federer once again made easy progress through the draw although I do expect him to be tested a little more by Stanislas Wawrinka in the next round. Federer has quietly gone about his business as everyone spent more time talking about Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. Federer has won here before and looks more than comfortable with his situation right now.

Another player making calm and easy progress through the draw is David Ferrer, arguably the 3rd most consistent performer on the red dirt this season behind Nadal and Djokovic.

Ferrer looked like he was coming to the end of a very productive career at the end of 2009, but has shown some real talent over the last 18 months as his window for winning a Slam closes rapidly. I dont believe Ferrer will win here, but a match with Federer in the Quarter Final is certain to excite.

The other big news of the day in the Men's draw was the meeting between Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro. First the match had to be moved from the Philippe Chatrier court because of the long nature of the first 3 matches on that court- that in turn caused disruptions as fans clamoured to get into the Suzanne Lenglen court to watch the game of the day.

I have stated before that Del Potro should have been in the position Djokovic is in if he had not injured his wrist and been forced to miss almost a year of action. The first 2 sets of the match did not disappoint and I am intrigued if Del Potro can continue his level of play and upset Djokovic.

Personally I am excited to see Del Potro playing the type of tennis he is- I did not expect his best stuff until the Summer hard court swing and the US Open, yet he is well on his way and is going to be a real danger for the rest of the season even if he does not complete the surprise win tomorrow.


The Women's draw saw the Number 1 seed, Caroline Wozniaki, get thumped out of the tournament by a Daniela Hantuchova playing her best tennis. That means the top 2 seeds are out and the draw remains open for anyone to win.

Wozniaki once again proved she is anything but the best player in the World and it must have the WTA Tour questioning their ranking system.


The picks did not have a good day yesterday with the Wozniaki defeat. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez was another disappointment, but fortunately Federer's easy win over Janko Tipsarevic left me with a small loss on the day and the Djokovic 3-1 set bet still running.


On to Day 7 Picks:


Robin Soderling - 7.5 games vs Leonardo Mayer: Robin Soderling should be very happy with the conditions expected at Roland Garros tomorrow and must be pleased with his draw as he faced Leonard Mayer, a player that has played a lot of tennis over the last 10 days after missing weeks at a time.

Mayer might be ranked outside the top 200, but he is a clay court specialist with his best results coming on the surface. Last season it took Marin Cilic 5 sets to beat him here in Paris.

Mayer also had a solid win over Marcos Baghdatis in the last round but I do wonder if the lack of competitive tennis over the last 6 weeks is going to take a toll on him against Soderling.

They have met once before when Soderling won 3 tight sets in the Davis Cup last season on an indoor hard court. However, the Swede has looked good so far in the tournament and I expect he will come through in straight sets and cover the spread.


Ivan Ljubicic v Fernando Verdasco Over 38.5 games: Both of these men have made relatively smooth progress through to this Round 3 meeting with the winner getting the 'reward' of a likely meeting with Rafael Nadal in Round 4.

Both have big games and could be rewarded by the conditions in Paris this year. The chances for a tie break or 2 are large with the way they can serve, while Fernando Verdasco is prone to mental lapses that costs him sets.

This has a tight 4 setter written all over it, and could finish either way. However, the Over 38.5 games could come into play if the tie breaks occur as I expect they will.


Mardy Fish vs Gilles Simon: Now I could be reading this matchup completely wrong, but I was pleasantly surprised to see Mardy Fish being quoted as the big underdog in this match.

Fish has improved tenfold on clay courts, as his loss of weight has improved his movement around the court. The conditions here also favour Fish's game, with the balls flying through the air and making it much more like a hard court meeting.

Simon will look to make balls all day, but Fish has the edge when it comes to serving and with his groundstrokes. Simon definitely has the better movement and his defensive game could extract mistakes from the Fish racquet.

It is possible this match could be dragged into a 5th set as they are evenly matched, so I cant see why Fish is the big underdog.


MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 sets @ 3.75 (1 Unit) Still Running from Yesterday
Robin Soderling - 7.5 games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivan Ljubicic-Fernando Verdasco Over 38.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mardy Fish @ 2.62 Unibet (2 Units)


FRENCH OPEN: + 14.02 Units (- 0.8 Units Day 6)

French Open Day 5 Picks

The tournament at Roland Garros is hotting up and its only going to get better as Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro set up a 3rd Round clash on Friday. My initial thoughts on that game is Del Potro has the game to push the Serb if the conditions remain warm, but I do think Djokovic will be too consistent right now.

The biggest issue will be if Del Potro forces Djokovic into a long match, something that may have an affect as the tournament progresses into its 2nd week.

Roger Federer looked solid enough although his challenger was not really up to par here.

The Women's draw saw Julia Goerges play solid tennis to progress against Lucie Safarova, although the German will have to up her game if she wants to pose a genuine threat in this tournament. Still, I would rather be backing her than Caroline Wozniaki, surely one of the worst World Number 1's in recent times.


In terms of the picks, it was the best day of the tournament so far as 4 of the 5 picks identified came in as winners. To make it more productive, the lowest priced winner was priced at 2.00.

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez almost blew the Men's treble I had picked out, being forced to win 13-11 in the 5th set to get through.

Now on to the 5th Day Picks:


Mardy Fish - 1.5 sets vs Robin Haase: I actually like Haase as a player, even before he took Rafa Nadal to 5 sets at Wimbledon last year, but I think the Dutchman is playing one of the most improved players on a clay court in the form of Mardy Fish.

Fish has also famously lost 14kg of weight which can be seen with the way he moves on the court. The faster conditions will also aid him here, and I think he wins the match. There is the danger he drops 1 set here, but I think otherwise Mardy should be able to come through in 3 or 4 sets.


Ivan Ljubicic - 1.5 sets vs Sam Querrey: The big serving American has not had the best of seasons so far but is unlikely to perform under better conditions on a clay court. Querrey had an impressive 4 set win over Philip Kohlschreiber to reach the 2nd Round but now plays a much more dangerous opponent.

I am not usually a big fan of backing Ivan Ljubicic as he usually plays a lot better when I am NOT backing him to win. However, I feel he has a distinct advantage in the match up on this surface and I do expect him to move forward while dropping possibly just 1 set in the match.


Gilles Simon - 6 games vs Jeremy Chardy: This is yet another all-French match and will be last on the Phillipe Chatrier court on Day 5. I was a little surprised that Simon was not favoured even more as Chardy has struggled this season so far.

Chardy likes to hit his winners but that can be a problem against someone like Simon who can make a lot of balls. With a lack of consistency from Chardy, I expect Simon will get through while covering the spread.

If Simon wins by exactly 6 games, we will get our stake back.


As you can see, I don't have as many picks as yesterday simply because I cant find enough value in the Day 5 games. Hopefully the 3 picks I have identified can bring in another tidy profit.


MY PICKS: Mardy Fish - 1.5 sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivan Ljubicic - 1.5 sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 6 games @ 1.95 Bodog (2 Units)

FRENCH OPEN: + 8.90 Units