I have been working on finishing my pre-Draft NFL post and a mock draft for the First Round and so I have not had time to post this earlier.
The NFL post will likely be ready in the next 9-12 hours, so plenty of time before the Draft actually begins.
Anyway, on to the tennis picks from Thursday 26th April after the ones I made yesterday finished 1-1, with Victor Troicki's match postponed until today due to inclement weather in Bucharest.
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 games v Jarkko Nieminen: This is a risky pick in some ways as Feliciano Lopez is just 1-6 against Jarkko Nieminen in the past and the Spaniard has to be one of the weaker players on a clay court from his country on the Professional tour.
However, I like his chances as his only win against Nieminen actually came at this event three years ago with Lopez winning for the loss of just 3 games- that match was also the last time the two players met.
Nieminen is a really tough competitor that will make life tough for Lopez, but the latter seems to enjoy playing here as he reached the Quarter Final last year, while he also has had a couple of solid years on the slower surfaces.
This one looks like a tough match for Lopez, but I think he will be a little too good for Nieminen.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units) Playing in Barcelona
Victor Troicki - 3 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units) Still Running from Yesterday and Playing in Bucharest
Weekly Update: 3-1, + 3.01 Units (7 Units Staked)
Featured post
NBA Playoffs 2026- Conference Finals Game 1-4 (Monday 18th May-Monday 25th May)
We are going to be down to the final four teams in the NBA once Game 7 of the Second Round Series between the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland ...
Showing posts with label Feliciano Lopez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Feliciano Lopez. Show all posts
Thursday, 26 April 2012
Monday, 10 October 2011
Tennis Picks Tuesday 11 October (Shanghai Masters)
It has been a while since I last played any tennis matches as we have had the break from the US Open while the tournaments being played have not really appealed to me too much.
However, we come to one of the final Masters Events of the season and I didn't make any outright picks as both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic pulled out with fatigue and injury, and that obviously means Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal are the short priced favourites to win the tournament.
4 of the top 10 are missing this week, while the dangerous Juan Martin Del Potro is not playing either, so the prices were significantly short on the top two players and I decided to give the outright market a miss.
I expect both Murray and Nadal to go close this week, if not win the tournament, but I will stick to the daily picks and hopefully keep the profit going upwards as the season draws to a close.
On to the Picks:
Feliciano Lopez + 3 games vs Janko Tipsarevic: Tipsarevic has been in the better form of late after winning a tournament in Kuala Lumpur, but Feliciano Lopez has the game to give him plenty of fits as he can win plenty of free point off his booming serve if it is on its game.
Lopez is a former Semi Finalist in this tournament, and he holds a 4-1 head to head record against Tipsarevic so I think he can at least keep this match close, hopefully pushing it to 3 sets if he does lose.
Tipsarevic does have the potential of making the World Tour Finals if he absolutely aces the last few weeks of the season, but this looks like being a tough 1st Round encounter for him so I will take the games.
David Nalbandian - 3.5 games vs Florian Mayer: David Nalbandian has been playing some good tennis recently, even if he is coming to the back end of his career, and he does have the game that can give Florian Mayer fits.
Mayer does not have the big weapons off the ground that will bother Nalbandian, and will not get too many free points off a weak serve, and these are areas that the Argentine should be able to exploit.
Nalbandian has won the previous pair of meetings between the players, although the last was back in 2005, but I think he should be good enough to come through tomorrow.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez + 3 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Nalbandian - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Bodog (2 Units)
SEASON TOTAL: + 82.02 Units
However, we come to one of the final Masters Events of the season and I didn't make any outright picks as both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic pulled out with fatigue and injury, and that obviously means Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal are the short priced favourites to win the tournament.
4 of the top 10 are missing this week, while the dangerous Juan Martin Del Potro is not playing either, so the prices were significantly short on the top two players and I decided to give the outright market a miss.
I expect both Murray and Nadal to go close this week, if not win the tournament, but I will stick to the daily picks and hopefully keep the profit going upwards as the season draws to a close.
On to the Picks:
Feliciano Lopez + 3 games vs Janko Tipsarevic: Tipsarevic has been in the better form of late after winning a tournament in Kuala Lumpur, but Feliciano Lopez has the game to give him plenty of fits as he can win plenty of free point off his booming serve if it is on its game.
Lopez is a former Semi Finalist in this tournament, and he holds a 4-1 head to head record against Tipsarevic so I think he can at least keep this match close, hopefully pushing it to 3 sets if he does lose.
Tipsarevic does have the potential of making the World Tour Finals if he absolutely aces the last few weeks of the season, but this looks like being a tough 1st Round encounter for him so I will take the games.
David Nalbandian - 3.5 games vs Florian Mayer: David Nalbandian has been playing some good tennis recently, even if he is coming to the back end of his career, and he does have the game that can give Florian Mayer fits.
Mayer does not have the big weapons off the ground that will bother Nalbandian, and will not get too many free points off a weak serve, and these are areas that the Argentine should be able to exploit.
Nalbandian has won the previous pair of meetings between the players, although the last was back in 2005, but I think he should be good enough to come through tomorrow.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez + 3 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Nalbandian - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Bodog (2 Units)
SEASON TOTAL: + 82.02 Units
Wednesday, 17 August 2011
Tennis Picks August 17th Cincinnati
It was a mixed bag yesterday in terms of the picks, and it leaves us with a slight deficit as we reach Day 3 of the tournament.
Only one of the big 4 has been in action so far, and that was Roger Federer with his impressive win over Juan Martin Del Potro last night.
The former World Number 1 has opened up his section with that win and has shortened considerably in the outright market. Federer was impressive behind serve, one of the elements that let him down against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga last week, and it was clear he enjoys the conditions at this venue.
Today we will see the rest of the top 4 players in action in what looks like another busy day of tennis action:
Andy Murray - 4.5 games vs David Nalbandian: I am going to back the British Number 1 to make a much better start to the week than he did in Montreal and come through with a bit to spare.
Murray will be able to get a much better feel for this match than he did against Kevin Anderson as he won't be getting big bombs served at him and will be involved in many more rallies.
David Nalbandian is not the force of old and looked bad in losses against Stanislas Wawrinka and James Blake over the last couple of weeks. He has won a match here already this week, but I think he will give Murray too many chances and lose 6-3, 6-4.
Some may prefer backing Murray with a - 4 game headstart, but I think the price on - 4.5 games is tempting enough to give it a shot.
Feliciano Lopez - 2 games vs Philipp Kohlschreiber: Barring a bad first service game, Feliciano Lopez showed how effective his serve can be on this surface when beating Juan Carlos Ferrero in 3 sets in the last Round.
He faces a difficult opponent in Kohlschreiber that can be erratic- one match he will look like a top 20 player, in others you struggle to see how he got into the top 100.
Lopez has a 3-0 head to head record against the German and I have a feeling we may see a flat performance from Kohlschreiber following his 3 set win over Andy Roddick in the last Round.
Radek Stepanek - 3.5 games vs Andrey Golubev: Radek Stepanek has shown he is clearly still in decent form, beating John Isner in the last Round and recently winning a hard court event in Washington.
He faces Andrey Golubev who stopped a 15 match losing run on the main tour in the last Round when beating Stanislas Wawrinka. I think Golubev took advantage of the Swiss mans exertions from Montreal and he will not get that luxury against Stepanek who is adept at playing on hard courts and has the variation and character to both frustrate and anger opponents.
Stepanek has a 3-1 head to head record over Golubev and his wins have been relatively straight forward. I think we may see a 6-4, 6-4 win for him tonight.
Gilles Simon - 2.5 games vs Janko Tipsarevic: I am backing Gilles Simon to win this match as he faces an opponent that looked a little fatigued in his win in the 1st Round following a run to the Semi Finals in Montreal last week.
We have seen in the past those players that do well in Canada and then falter in Cincinnati and I think Tipsarevic may be ripe for the taking here.
Simon has the winning mentality recently, albeit in a clay court event, and has beaten Tipsarevic in their 2 career meetings.
Francesca Schiavone - 2.5 games vs Maria Kirilenko: Francesca Schiavone is one of the toughest competitors on the WTA Tour and I feel her ability to chase down a lot of balls (excuse me?!!) gives her the edge to break down the Kirilenko game.
That seems to stand up to the 4-1 head to head record Schiavone holds over Kirilenko and the fact that Kirilenko has had a slight injury in recent weeks will not aid her cause.
Schiavone has won their last 2 meetings without dropping a set, including in Kirilenko's home country, and I think she will prove too strong again.
Serena Williams - 2.5 games vs Sam Stosur: The odds here are clearly much lower because Serena Williams was showing signs of fatigue following her recent successes when beating Lucie Hradecka in the last Round.
However, the best Women's player in the World said in her press conference that she had arrived in Cincinnati the night before and she expects to play better today.
Stosur is another who played a lot of tennis in reaching the Final in Toronto last week but she was easily beaten on that occasion following a tight first set. The Australian has also been suffering with a slight wrist problem, especially when hitting her backhand strokes, and I think Williams will confirm her superiority over her today.
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 games vs Jie Zheng: I am going to back the former World Number 1, Jelena Jankovic, to come through this test against a player that has fallen from her best level that took her to a Wimbledon Semi Final in 2009.
Jie Zheng has won 3 Rounds here already so she is in form and she did push Serena Williams to 3 sets last week, but Jelena Jankovic has an impressive 4-1 head to head record against her opponent and she has won the last 3 meetings without dropping a set.
Jankovic has not had a good time on the hard courts this Summer so far, but she does adapt well to the faster surfaces and I expect her to come through tonight.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 4.5 games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2 games @ 1.95 Bodog (2 Units)
Radek Stepanek - 3.5 games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 2.5 games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Francesca Schiavone - 2.5 games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 2.5 games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: - 0.48 Units
Only one of the big 4 has been in action so far, and that was Roger Federer with his impressive win over Juan Martin Del Potro last night.
The former World Number 1 has opened up his section with that win and has shortened considerably in the outright market. Federer was impressive behind serve, one of the elements that let him down against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga last week, and it was clear he enjoys the conditions at this venue.
Today we will see the rest of the top 4 players in action in what looks like another busy day of tennis action:
Andy Murray - 4.5 games vs David Nalbandian: I am going to back the British Number 1 to make a much better start to the week than he did in Montreal and come through with a bit to spare.
Murray will be able to get a much better feel for this match than he did against Kevin Anderson as he won't be getting big bombs served at him and will be involved in many more rallies.
David Nalbandian is not the force of old and looked bad in losses against Stanislas Wawrinka and James Blake over the last couple of weeks. He has won a match here already this week, but I think he will give Murray too many chances and lose 6-3, 6-4.
Some may prefer backing Murray with a - 4 game headstart, but I think the price on - 4.5 games is tempting enough to give it a shot.
Feliciano Lopez - 2 games vs Philipp Kohlschreiber: Barring a bad first service game, Feliciano Lopez showed how effective his serve can be on this surface when beating Juan Carlos Ferrero in 3 sets in the last Round.
He faces a difficult opponent in Kohlschreiber that can be erratic- one match he will look like a top 20 player, in others you struggle to see how he got into the top 100.
Lopez has a 3-0 head to head record against the German and I have a feeling we may see a flat performance from Kohlschreiber following his 3 set win over Andy Roddick in the last Round.
Radek Stepanek - 3.5 games vs Andrey Golubev: Radek Stepanek has shown he is clearly still in decent form, beating John Isner in the last Round and recently winning a hard court event in Washington.
He faces Andrey Golubev who stopped a 15 match losing run on the main tour in the last Round when beating Stanislas Wawrinka. I think Golubev took advantage of the Swiss mans exertions from Montreal and he will not get that luxury against Stepanek who is adept at playing on hard courts and has the variation and character to both frustrate and anger opponents.
Stepanek has a 3-1 head to head record over Golubev and his wins have been relatively straight forward. I think we may see a 6-4, 6-4 win for him tonight.
Gilles Simon - 2.5 games vs Janko Tipsarevic: I am backing Gilles Simon to win this match as he faces an opponent that looked a little fatigued in his win in the 1st Round following a run to the Semi Finals in Montreal last week.
We have seen in the past those players that do well in Canada and then falter in Cincinnati and I think Tipsarevic may be ripe for the taking here.
Simon has the winning mentality recently, albeit in a clay court event, and has beaten Tipsarevic in their 2 career meetings.
Francesca Schiavone - 2.5 games vs Maria Kirilenko: Francesca Schiavone is one of the toughest competitors on the WTA Tour and I feel her ability to chase down a lot of balls (excuse me?!!) gives her the edge to break down the Kirilenko game.
That seems to stand up to the 4-1 head to head record Schiavone holds over Kirilenko and the fact that Kirilenko has had a slight injury in recent weeks will not aid her cause.
Schiavone has won their last 2 meetings without dropping a set, including in Kirilenko's home country, and I think she will prove too strong again.
Serena Williams - 2.5 games vs Sam Stosur: The odds here are clearly much lower because Serena Williams was showing signs of fatigue following her recent successes when beating Lucie Hradecka in the last Round.
However, the best Women's player in the World said in her press conference that she had arrived in Cincinnati the night before and she expects to play better today.
Stosur is another who played a lot of tennis in reaching the Final in Toronto last week but she was easily beaten on that occasion following a tight first set. The Australian has also been suffering with a slight wrist problem, especially when hitting her backhand strokes, and I think Williams will confirm her superiority over her today.
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 games vs Jie Zheng: I am going to back the former World Number 1, Jelena Jankovic, to come through this test against a player that has fallen from her best level that took her to a Wimbledon Semi Final in 2009.
Jie Zheng has won 3 Rounds here already so she is in form and she did push Serena Williams to 3 sets last week, but Jelena Jankovic has an impressive 4-1 head to head record against her opponent and she has won the last 3 meetings without dropping a set.
Jankovic has not had a good time on the hard courts this Summer so far, but she does adapt well to the faster surfaces and I expect her to come through tonight.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 4.5 games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2 games @ 1.95 Bodog (2 Units)
Radek Stepanek - 3.5 games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 2.5 games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Francesca Schiavone - 2.5 games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 2.5 games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: - 0.48 Units
Monday, 15 August 2011
Tennis Picks August 15th
It is a brand new week following wins for Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams in Montreal and Toronto respectively, and we have yet another Masters tournament beginning with this week representing the last really important week before the final Grand Slam of the season begins at Flushing Meadows on August 29th.
My outright picks are already up on the blog and a couple of the 1st Round matches were played yesterday with Juan Martin Del Potro and James Blake moving through to the 2nd Round.
The early Rounds can be a bit of a minefield, even in these Masters events, but I will be hoping I can continue the form that produced a profit last week.
On to the Picks:
Klara Zakopalova vs Lucie Safarova: I am beginning the week by taking this big priced underdog to surprise Lucie Safarova.
I think the higher ranked Czech player has been set as the short priced favourite after a decent week in Toronto where she was eventually defeated in 3 sets by Serena Williams. On the other hand, Zakopalova was comfortably beaten by Greta Arn.
However, it seems like Safarova stuggles when she meets her compatriot with Zakopalova holding a 4-1 head to head record.
Safarova beat Zakopalova in 3 sets at the Australian Open in January, but has since lost in Dubai on the hard courts and at Wimbledon in a surprise defeat in 3 sets.
Safarova struggled on the hard courts last season, including a 1st Round exit at this tournament, and she does look ripe for the surprise defeat here.
Feliciano Lopez vs Juan Carlos Ferrero: Neither one of these players has played much hard court tennis this Summer, instead opting to play in clay court events and it was no surprise to see both exiting early in Montreal last week.
Feliciano Lopez should have the edge on these faster courts over Ferrero mainly thanks to a stronger serve and I think that will lead to a win for him here.
Lopez has won the last 2 meetings between the players, although the last was back in 2007, and I think he has been in good enough form of late to come through even if it takes 3 sets.
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games vs Thomaz Bellucci: I hate taking Fernando Verdasco these days as he has returned to the inconsistent form that blighted his game pre-Australia in 2009.
However, he is playing an opponent that is clearly struggling to adjust his game to these faster surfaces this season and I believe Verdasco will be able to come through in straight sets, although don't expect it to be easy.
Bellucci won their last meeting on the clay courts of Mexico earlier this year, but I am going to back Verdasco to reverse that form here.
David Nalbandian vs Kei Nishikori: Another player that I hate backing these days is David Nalbandian, and it does look like he won't be on the Tour for too much longer.
I have a soft spot for Nalbandian as I have considered him one of my favourite players over the last decade, but he is clearly not the force of old.
However, I am not convinced he should be considered an outsider against the talented, but inconsistent, Kei Nishikori. The Japanese player is under the tutelage of Brad Gilbert these days, but has not incorporated the 'win ugly' mentality that Gilbert instills in his pupils.
Nishikori has won a couple of qualifying rounds here in Cincinnati so should be familiar with the conditions- I just don't think he deserves to be favourite against a Nalbandian just yet.
MY PICKS: Klara Zakopalova @ 3.5 BlueSquare (1 Unit)
Feliciano Lopez @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Nalbandian @ 2.20 Victor Chandler (1 Unit)
My outright picks are already up on the blog and a couple of the 1st Round matches were played yesterday with Juan Martin Del Potro and James Blake moving through to the 2nd Round.
The early Rounds can be a bit of a minefield, even in these Masters events, but I will be hoping I can continue the form that produced a profit last week.
On to the Picks:
Klara Zakopalova vs Lucie Safarova: I am beginning the week by taking this big priced underdog to surprise Lucie Safarova.
I think the higher ranked Czech player has been set as the short priced favourite after a decent week in Toronto where she was eventually defeated in 3 sets by Serena Williams. On the other hand, Zakopalova was comfortably beaten by Greta Arn.
However, it seems like Safarova stuggles when she meets her compatriot with Zakopalova holding a 4-1 head to head record.
Safarova beat Zakopalova in 3 sets at the Australian Open in January, but has since lost in Dubai on the hard courts and at Wimbledon in a surprise defeat in 3 sets.
Safarova struggled on the hard courts last season, including a 1st Round exit at this tournament, and she does look ripe for the surprise defeat here.
Feliciano Lopez vs Juan Carlos Ferrero: Neither one of these players has played much hard court tennis this Summer, instead opting to play in clay court events and it was no surprise to see both exiting early in Montreal last week.
Feliciano Lopez should have the edge on these faster courts over Ferrero mainly thanks to a stronger serve and I think that will lead to a win for him here.
Lopez has won the last 2 meetings between the players, although the last was back in 2007, and I think he has been in good enough form of late to come through even if it takes 3 sets.
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games vs Thomaz Bellucci: I hate taking Fernando Verdasco these days as he has returned to the inconsistent form that blighted his game pre-Australia in 2009.
However, he is playing an opponent that is clearly struggling to adjust his game to these faster surfaces this season and I believe Verdasco will be able to come through in straight sets, although don't expect it to be easy.
Bellucci won their last meeting on the clay courts of Mexico earlier this year, but I am going to back Verdasco to reverse that form here.
David Nalbandian vs Kei Nishikori: Another player that I hate backing these days is David Nalbandian, and it does look like he won't be on the Tour for too much longer.
I have a soft spot for Nalbandian as I have considered him one of my favourite players over the last decade, but he is clearly not the force of old.
However, I am not convinced he should be considered an outsider against the talented, but inconsistent, Kei Nishikori. The Japanese player is under the tutelage of Brad Gilbert these days, but has not incorporated the 'win ugly' mentality that Gilbert instills in his pupils.
Nishikori has won a couple of qualifying rounds here in Cincinnati so should be familiar with the conditions- I just don't think he deserves to be favourite against a Nalbandian just yet.
MY PICKS: Klara Zakopalova @ 3.5 BlueSquare (1 Unit)
Feliciano Lopez @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Nalbandian @ 2.20 Victor Chandler (1 Unit)
Thursday, 4 August 2011
Tennis Picks August 4th Kitzbuhel
It looks the only winner in the next few days in Austria is going to be the weather with consistent rain expected to fall on every day through to next week.
That means we will see players pulling out, especially the higher seeds that will be in Montreal for the Masters Event that starts on Monday, and so it makes it a minefield to make picks in.
With no connections on a personal level with the players out there, it is hard to second guess which ones will take this tournament seriously now and which ones are likely to call it a day.
In saying that, I won't be making any more picks after today where I still have 2 picks running from yesterday. Best of luck if any of you guys give this tournament a go for the rest of the week.
MY PICKS: Robin Haase @ 2.63 BetFred (1 Unit) Still Running from yesterday, 1-1 in sets and 1-1 in the 3rd set
Pablo Andujar @ 1.75 Unibet (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 0.66 Units
That means we will see players pulling out, especially the higher seeds that will be in Montreal for the Masters Event that starts on Monday, and so it makes it a minefield to make picks in.
With no connections on a personal level with the players out there, it is hard to second guess which ones will take this tournament seriously now and which ones are likely to call it a day.
In saying that, I won't be making any more picks after today where I still have 2 picks running from yesterday. Best of luck if any of you guys give this tournament a go for the rest of the week.
MY PICKS: Robin Haase @ 2.63 BetFred (1 Unit) Still Running from yesterday, 1-1 in sets and 1-1 in the 3rd set
Pablo Andujar @ 1.75 Unibet (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 0.66 Units
Wednesday, 3 August 2011
Tennis Picks August 3rd ATP Kitzbuhel
It has been a slow start to the week, especially over in Austria, as the early rounds have proven to be tougher to predict in recent tournaments. Now we have reached Day 3, I am hoping that more value can be found from the bookmakers:
Pablo Andujar vs Albert Ramos: This is a battle between two Spanish players and I will be backing the higher ranked Pablo Andujar to come through, although it may be closer than expected.
Andujar has been plying his trade at the main tour level this season, a contrast to his opponent today, and he has won in Casablanca and also reached the Final in Stuttgart.
I do get a little put off when seeing a defeat to Mathias Bachinger from last week in Gstaad, but Albert Ramos has generally come up short when playing the better players on the tour.
Andujar is a clay court specialist and also holds a 2-1 head to head record against Ramos, winning their last match just under a year ago in Geneva.
Robin Haase vs Feliciano Lopez: Robin Haase's career has been hit by injuries and this season has been no different for the Dutchman, but I still think he has a genuine chance of upsetting the odds against Feliciano Lopez, a Spaniard whose worst surface is arguably the clay courts.
Robin Haase played some decent stuff against Marin Cilic last week in Umag, but he is still inconsistent and seems to go wondering off mentally in matches.
However, Haase has a big serve and decent groundies for the most part and I expect he can make life tough for Lopez.
Feliciano Lopez has been in good form since Wimbledon, helping Spain win their Davis Cup tie in America and also winning a Challenger on the clay in Colombia. Last week he reached the Quarter Final before being ousted by Nicolas Almagro, but his serve-volley style is not always suited to the clay courts.
The altitude should help both with their service games, but I am going for the underdog to pull the shock here.
MY PICKS: Pablo Andujar @ 1.75 Unibet (2 Units)
Robin Haase @ 2.63 BetFred (1 Unit)
WEEKLY UPDATE KITZBUHEL: + 0.66 Units
Pablo Andujar vs Albert Ramos: This is a battle between two Spanish players and I will be backing the higher ranked Pablo Andujar to come through, although it may be closer than expected.
Andujar has been plying his trade at the main tour level this season, a contrast to his opponent today, and he has won in Casablanca and also reached the Final in Stuttgart.
I do get a little put off when seeing a defeat to Mathias Bachinger from last week in Gstaad, but Albert Ramos has generally come up short when playing the better players on the tour.
Andujar is a clay court specialist and also holds a 2-1 head to head record against Ramos, winning their last match just under a year ago in Geneva.
Robin Haase vs Feliciano Lopez: Robin Haase's career has been hit by injuries and this season has been no different for the Dutchman, but I still think he has a genuine chance of upsetting the odds against Feliciano Lopez, a Spaniard whose worst surface is arguably the clay courts.
Robin Haase played some decent stuff against Marin Cilic last week in Umag, but he is still inconsistent and seems to go wondering off mentally in matches.
However, Haase has a big serve and decent groundies for the most part and I expect he can make life tough for Lopez.
Feliciano Lopez has been in good form since Wimbledon, helping Spain win their Davis Cup tie in America and also winning a Challenger on the clay in Colombia. Last week he reached the Quarter Final before being ousted by Nicolas Almagro, but his serve-volley style is not always suited to the clay courts.
The altitude should help both with their service games, but I am going for the underdog to pull the shock here.
MY PICKS: Pablo Andujar @ 1.75 Unibet (2 Units)
Robin Haase @ 2.63 BetFred (1 Unit)
WEEKLY UPDATE KITZBUHEL: + 0.66 Units
Thursday, 28 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 28th Umag and Gstaad
It was a good day without picks in Umag for followers of the blog as Juan Carlos Ferrero moved through the the Quarter Finals after coming from a set behind to beat Ivan Ljubicic. That puts him through to a meeting with Carlos Berlocq in the next Round and I think Ferrero will be considered the favourite to get through to the Final from the position he is in.
I was a little surprised at the start of the week when I noticed the Racing Post had highlighted Tommy Robredo as a good e/w shot at 12-1. Robredo has been suffering with a number of injuries and is clearly not the player of old and I would not have recommended him at 3 times the price.
Unsurprisingly, Robredo pulled out of this tournament, as he had last week in Hamburg, and this was all without hitting a ball in the 2nd Round.
Now on to the Picks:
Julien Benneteau vs Matthias Bachinger: Now before I say anything else, I know Julien Benneteau has been in bade form, but I am still surprised that he is considered the underdog in this match.
The Frenchman has struggled on the main tour in clay events this season, but it has been a different story in the level below that and he is now facing a player that is more used to playing Challenger and qualifying events.
Bachinger has only played 5 matches on clay all season, and really took advantage of Pablo Andujar who has been playing quite a bit of tennis of late. Bachinger has struggled on clay for the last couple of seasons and I am not ready to see him as the favourite in this match.
Double; Nicolas Almagro vs Jarkko Nieminen and Feliciano Lopez vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver: I have a couple of doubts over both of these favourites but I do think both are capable of coming through their tests.
Nicolas Almagro has reached the Semi Final in Bastad and the Final in Hamburg over the last couple of weeks and must feel happy he has had days off since Sunday to recover his fitness. However, the rain has affected play in Gstaad and he will have to win 4 matches in 4 days if he wants to take home the trophy.
However, Almagro has a 3-1 head to head record over Jarkko Nieminen and is the better clay court player. He has won their last 3 meetings, winning 7 sets to 1, and I expect he will be good enough to come through.
Feliciano Lopez followed helping Spain win their Davis Cup tie against the USA by winning a Challenger event on the clay in Colombia and he will feel he can go deep in this tournament. His compatriot has struggled all season and only just scraped through against Steve Darcis in the last Round in a match he should have lost.
I have a couple of concerns that Lopez could be tired from all the travelling of late, but he does have the game to beat Gimeno-Traver and I hope he will show that here.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games vs Frederico Gil: Fernando Verdasco has been out of form for much of the season, but he showed he might just be turning around a corner when reaching the Semi Final in Hamburg last week and he faces a player that has won just 3 of his last 12 matches.
Verdasco is a little more effective in everything he does and already holds a comfortable 2 set win over Gil from earlier this year when he beat him in Portugal on a clay court. If Verdasco is motivated, he should come through with few problems.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games vs Robin Haase: Marin Cilic was my outright pick last week and he was definitely showing signs of improvement after a few months of sub-standard performances and results.
Cilic will be backed by the home crowd in this match and also holds a 2-0 head to head record against Robin Haase although they last played in 2008.
I cant help oppose Haase here as he has been inconsistent of late while struggling with a knee problem- his 6-2, 6-2 loss to Carlos Berlocq last week is troubling and he had a few problems against Simone Vagnozzi in the 1st Round.
I expect Cilic will come through in straight sets after keeping the pressure on the Haase serve and being a little more consistent and getting the Dutchman moving around the court.
MY PICKS: Julien Benneteau @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Double; Nicolas Almagro and Feliciano Lopez @ 1.96 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE UMAG & GSTAAD: - 1.94 Units
I was a little surprised at the start of the week when I noticed the Racing Post had highlighted Tommy Robredo as a good e/w shot at 12-1. Robredo has been suffering with a number of injuries and is clearly not the player of old and I would not have recommended him at 3 times the price.
Unsurprisingly, Robredo pulled out of this tournament, as he had last week in Hamburg, and this was all without hitting a ball in the 2nd Round.
Now on to the Picks:
Julien Benneteau vs Matthias Bachinger: Now before I say anything else, I know Julien Benneteau has been in bade form, but I am still surprised that he is considered the underdog in this match.
The Frenchman has struggled on the main tour in clay events this season, but it has been a different story in the level below that and he is now facing a player that is more used to playing Challenger and qualifying events.
Bachinger has only played 5 matches on clay all season, and really took advantage of Pablo Andujar who has been playing quite a bit of tennis of late. Bachinger has struggled on clay for the last couple of seasons and I am not ready to see him as the favourite in this match.
Double; Nicolas Almagro vs Jarkko Nieminen and Feliciano Lopez vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver: I have a couple of doubts over both of these favourites but I do think both are capable of coming through their tests.
Nicolas Almagro has reached the Semi Final in Bastad and the Final in Hamburg over the last couple of weeks and must feel happy he has had days off since Sunday to recover his fitness. However, the rain has affected play in Gstaad and he will have to win 4 matches in 4 days if he wants to take home the trophy.
However, Almagro has a 3-1 head to head record over Jarkko Nieminen and is the better clay court player. He has won their last 3 meetings, winning 7 sets to 1, and I expect he will be good enough to come through.
Feliciano Lopez followed helping Spain win their Davis Cup tie against the USA by winning a Challenger event on the clay in Colombia and he will feel he can go deep in this tournament. His compatriot has struggled all season and only just scraped through against Steve Darcis in the last Round in a match he should have lost.
I have a couple of concerns that Lopez could be tired from all the travelling of late, but he does have the game to beat Gimeno-Traver and I hope he will show that here.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games vs Frederico Gil: Fernando Verdasco has been out of form for much of the season, but he showed he might just be turning around a corner when reaching the Semi Final in Hamburg last week and he faces a player that has won just 3 of his last 12 matches.
Verdasco is a little more effective in everything he does and already holds a comfortable 2 set win over Gil from earlier this year when he beat him in Portugal on a clay court. If Verdasco is motivated, he should come through with few problems.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games vs Robin Haase: Marin Cilic was my outright pick last week and he was definitely showing signs of improvement after a few months of sub-standard performances and results.
Cilic will be backed by the home crowd in this match and also holds a 2-0 head to head record against Robin Haase although they last played in 2008.
I cant help oppose Haase here as he has been inconsistent of late while struggling with a knee problem- his 6-2, 6-2 loss to Carlos Berlocq last week is troubling and he had a few problems against Simone Vagnozzi in the 1st Round.
I expect Cilic will come through in straight sets after keeping the pressure on the Haase serve and being a little more consistent and getting the Dutchman moving around the court.
MY PICKS: Julien Benneteau @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Double; Nicolas Almagro and Feliciano Lopez @ 1.96 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE UMAG & GSTAAD: - 1.94 Units
Wednesday, 29 June 2011
Wimbledon Day 9 Picks- Men's Quarter Finals
Yesterday was a much better day all round as both picks came through and Rafael Nadal confirmed the MRI Scan he received came back negative and he is '1oo per cent' to continue in the tournament.
Maria Sharapova is the firm favourite to take the Women's crown after totally dismantling Dominika Cibulkova, but there is still a couple of tough matches in her path if she wants to make the outright pick a winner.
Before I make my picks for Day 9, the good news is anyone who followed the outright picks will now have a 5.00 quadruple running tomorrow as the top 4 Men's seeds look to move into the Semi Finals. I would be surprised and disappointed if any of those seeds lose.
Now on to Day 9 Picks:
Andy Murray-Feliciano Lopez under 35.5 games: The game handicap looks about right and I found it hard to seperate the players on that front. However, I do think Murray is likely to come through this match in straight sets and that should see this pick home.
Feliciano Lopez is a tough player, but he struggled mightily in the last Round against Lukasz Kubot and I think Murray has the edge in almost all significant departments.
I have to expect the British Number 1 will make enough balls back into play during Lopez' service games to give himself some opportunities to break. One of the sets is likely to go to a tie break but we could see a similar end to the Murray-Gasquet match on Monday where the latter went away after losing a tight first set.
Lopez has lost all 4 meetings with Murray in the past and has won just 1 set.
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games vs Mardy Fish: Mardy Fish surprised me when he got past Tomas Berdych on Monday, but I am guessing it is more to do with the Czech players state of mind rather than the strong play of Fish.
Now he will face a man who will fight for every point and has a deep belief in his own game. Rafael Nadal will also have been boosted by the news his foot injury is nothing more than shock from the incident happening on Monday and he is good to go.
Fish has lost all 5 meetings with Nadal, the last 2 in Grand Slams, and I am still not convinced his game is perfectly suited to the slower courts at Wimbledon. Nadal will ask plenty of questions of Fish and is likely to make him one too many balls in a number of rallies and that should see the pick home.
They havent played since 2008 and Fish is much improved since then- I just dont believe he has the mental belief he can win this match.
Roger Federer - 5.5 games vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: This is the match of the day on paper but I have a feeling it will be a little more one sided than we may all imagine.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga complained about his own mental belief after beating Gregor Dimitrov in the 2nd Round and he will be facing a few more demons in the form of Roger Federer.
Federer has a 4-1 lead in the head to head, winning the last 3 since throwing away the match in Montreal a couple of years ago. Federer has won 7 consecutive sets against Tsonga and is serving very well, while showing the form of the French Open that made him the favourite to win this in many peoples eyes before the tournament began.
Tsonga has moved through the draw but has taken advantage of a section where David Ferrer was the highest seed. He is giving too many looks on his second serve and that could cost him against an aggressive returner like Federer.
Much of Federer's game is working too well right for Tsonga to deal with in my opinion.
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games vs Bernard Tomic: These two consider one another as friends off the court, but it looks like a bit of a mismatch to me on the court. Novak Djokovic has been on a fantastic run this entire year, while Bernard Tomic is a real surprise at this stage of the draw after beating Robin Soderling in Round 3.
You will hear all about Tomic being the first Qualifier since 1985 to reach this stage and the youngest player to do so since Boris Becker won the tournament (think thats right anyway), but that does not take into account that Tomic is far less experienced than Djokovic.
Tomic is going to become the Number 1 Australian on Monday next week when the new rankings come out, but I cant help noticing what an average year it has been outside of Wimbledon- losses to Gilles Muller and Dudi Sela on the grass in recent weeks are telling results.
Djokovic is unlikely to take things easy here so he can conserve some energy for the latter end of the tournament and I expect he will get through easy enough.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games @ 1.95 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray-Feliciano Lopez Under 35.5 games @ 2.00 BetFred (2 Units)
TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 13.99 Units (+ 3.66 Units Day 8)
Maria Sharapova is the firm favourite to take the Women's crown after totally dismantling Dominika Cibulkova, but there is still a couple of tough matches in her path if she wants to make the outright pick a winner.
Before I make my picks for Day 9, the good news is anyone who followed the outright picks will now have a 5.00 quadruple running tomorrow as the top 4 Men's seeds look to move into the Semi Finals. I would be surprised and disappointed if any of those seeds lose.
Now on to Day 9 Picks:
Andy Murray-Feliciano Lopez under 35.5 games: The game handicap looks about right and I found it hard to seperate the players on that front. However, I do think Murray is likely to come through this match in straight sets and that should see this pick home.
Feliciano Lopez is a tough player, but he struggled mightily in the last Round against Lukasz Kubot and I think Murray has the edge in almost all significant departments.
I have to expect the British Number 1 will make enough balls back into play during Lopez' service games to give himself some opportunities to break. One of the sets is likely to go to a tie break but we could see a similar end to the Murray-Gasquet match on Monday where the latter went away after losing a tight first set.
Lopez has lost all 4 meetings with Murray in the past and has won just 1 set.
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games vs Mardy Fish: Mardy Fish surprised me when he got past Tomas Berdych on Monday, but I am guessing it is more to do with the Czech players state of mind rather than the strong play of Fish.
Now he will face a man who will fight for every point and has a deep belief in his own game. Rafael Nadal will also have been boosted by the news his foot injury is nothing more than shock from the incident happening on Monday and he is good to go.
Fish has lost all 5 meetings with Nadal, the last 2 in Grand Slams, and I am still not convinced his game is perfectly suited to the slower courts at Wimbledon. Nadal will ask plenty of questions of Fish and is likely to make him one too many balls in a number of rallies and that should see the pick home.
They havent played since 2008 and Fish is much improved since then- I just dont believe he has the mental belief he can win this match.
Roger Federer - 5.5 games vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: This is the match of the day on paper but I have a feeling it will be a little more one sided than we may all imagine.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga complained about his own mental belief after beating Gregor Dimitrov in the 2nd Round and he will be facing a few more demons in the form of Roger Federer.
Federer has a 4-1 lead in the head to head, winning the last 3 since throwing away the match in Montreal a couple of years ago. Federer has won 7 consecutive sets against Tsonga and is serving very well, while showing the form of the French Open that made him the favourite to win this in many peoples eyes before the tournament began.
Tsonga has moved through the draw but has taken advantage of a section where David Ferrer was the highest seed. He is giving too many looks on his second serve and that could cost him against an aggressive returner like Federer.
Much of Federer's game is working too well right for Tsonga to deal with in my opinion.
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games vs Bernard Tomic: These two consider one another as friends off the court, but it looks like a bit of a mismatch to me on the court. Novak Djokovic has been on a fantastic run this entire year, while Bernard Tomic is a real surprise at this stage of the draw after beating Robin Soderling in Round 3.
You will hear all about Tomic being the first Qualifier since 1985 to reach this stage and the youngest player to do so since Boris Becker won the tournament (think thats right anyway), but that does not take into account that Tomic is far less experienced than Djokovic.
Tomic is going to become the Number 1 Australian on Monday next week when the new rankings come out, but I cant help noticing what an average year it has been outside of Wimbledon- losses to Gilles Muller and Dudi Sela on the grass in recent weeks are telling results.
Djokovic is unlikely to take things easy here so he can conserve some energy for the latter end of the tournament and I expect he will get through easy enough.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games @ 1.95 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray-Feliciano Lopez Under 35.5 games @ 2.00 BetFred (2 Units)
TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 13.99 Units (+ 3.66 Units Day 8)
Monday, 27 June 2011
Wimbledon Day 7 Picks
Last week proved to be a happy hunting ground for the picks. I was hoping to come online with a recap of the week's events, but have been out for most of the day so did not have the time to do so.
I am hoping this week we can build on a good start to the tournament so without further ado, on to Day 7 Picks:
Feliciano Lopez - 4.5 games vs Lukasz Kubot: I did identify Feliciano Lopez as a player that could surprise a few people, but I was still shocked at the ease in which he dismissed Andy Roddick's challenge in the last Round- dont be fooled by the tight nature of the scoreline, it was much easier than that.
Lopez is a former Quarter Finalist at these Championships, and he is rightly the big favourite to come through this match with Lukasz Kubot.
Kubot is ranked at 93 in the World, although that should improve markedly next week, and is coming in after a 3rd Round appearance at the French Open. He qualified here for Wimbledon and has dismissed Ivo Karlovic and Gael Monfils along the way.
I expect the Polish player to cause a few problems, but his serve is not as good as Lopez' and I feel that will be the difference in this match. Kubot also has no previous form on grass, although pushing Philipp Petzschner to 5 sets last year, and I feel he has taken advantage of a kind draw- that should come to an end here.
Lopez already holds a win over Kubot on a clay court and his game should be more suited to take advantage on the grass.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games vs Mardy Fish: This is an intriguing battle between two players that are ranked in the top 10 of the World. Berdych's ranking is due to take a hit unless he can reach the heights of last season when he made the Final here and both players will feel confident in this match.
However, it is Berdych who has the better grass court pedigree of the two, with Mardy Fish surprisingly struggling in previous visits to SW19.
Fish has been forced to dig much deeper to reach the 2nd week here this year, while Berdych has quietly made his move through the draw.
This match could boil down to consistency in the serve, an area where I feel Berdych has the edge, and I also think his groundies are a little more penetrating.
I would not be surprised if Fish took a set, but the spread is low enough that it might not be enough to prevent Berdych from covering.
Roger Federer - 7.5 games vs Mikhail Youzhny: Roger Federer will be playing on Court 1 tomorrow afternoon, but he could play anywhere at this moment and I would struggle to see Mikhail Youzhny slowing him down.
Federer is serving exceptionally well and this is making it easier for him to attack opponents service games as he continues to play at an extremely high level. His groundstrokes have been working very well on both wings and it would take a braver man than me to predict Federer will not be playing on July 3rd on Centre Court.
Youzhny is a good grass court player, but his best days look like they are behind him. He has made good progress through the draw, although I am a little worried that Juan Monaco took him to 5 sets.
The Russian has also lost all 9 previous meetings with Federer, and they have also met on 3 occasions on grass in those losses. Youzhny's serve is not the biggest, and while he may stick around for a while, I can only see another fairly straightforward Federer win.
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games vs Juan Martin Del Potro: The tie of the 4th Round, in my opinion, and it is one I am looking forward to. Del Potro has looked fairly good in his matches here, although this will be his first match on Centre Court since 2009.
Rafael Nadal has not been at his brilliant best, but we have all seen how he works his way into a tournament. He came through a tricky tie with Gilles Muller and is still to drop a set, although you know Uncle Toni will have told him to begin stepping up his game.
The key to this match could be the movement of Del Potro- even though he has been winning matches behind his heavy groundies, I just feel the Argentine has not been totally convinced with the surface.
Nadal will get his man on the run and I think the reigning Champion will expose any shortcomings Del Potro may feel he has on the grass.
The head to head is 5-3 in favour of Nadal, their last match coming at Indian Wells in March. That is their only meeting since Del Potro destroyed Nadal for the loss of 6 games in the US Open Semi Final of 2009.
Nadal also holds a straight sets win on grass at Queens over Del Potro and I feel the same will happen here. However, I am taking the handicap rather than the sets because there is a chance Del Potro will play 1 inspired set although I would be surprised if he won a set in such a fashion to make it tough to beat this spread.
Andy Murray win 3-1 in sets vs Richard Gasquet: The final pick will be Andy Murray giving his supporters a few nervous moments before dispatching Richard Gasquet in the opening match on Centre Court.
Their last 2 meetings have come in Grand Slams, at Roland Garros in 2010 and here in 2008- on both occasions Gasquet had a 2 set lead before Murray roared back to win in 5 sets.
Murray should be too strong overall for the Frenchman again, but it would be no surprise if he threw in a couple of bad service games that results in the loss of a set as it has done against Ivan Ljubicic and Daniel Gimeno-Traver already.
Gasquet has made easy progress through the draw but will need to raise his level around 2 gears from previous opponents. Although he holds a win over Roger Federer recently, defeats to Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic since then may show he is not quite ready to compete with the very best on a consistent basis.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez - 4.5 games @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 7.5 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 2.30 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray win 3-1 sets @ 3.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 15.51 Units (+ 3.10 Units Day 6)
I am hoping this week we can build on a good start to the tournament so without further ado, on to Day 7 Picks:
Feliciano Lopez - 4.5 games vs Lukasz Kubot: I did identify Feliciano Lopez as a player that could surprise a few people, but I was still shocked at the ease in which he dismissed Andy Roddick's challenge in the last Round- dont be fooled by the tight nature of the scoreline, it was much easier than that.
Lopez is a former Quarter Finalist at these Championships, and he is rightly the big favourite to come through this match with Lukasz Kubot.
Kubot is ranked at 93 in the World, although that should improve markedly next week, and is coming in after a 3rd Round appearance at the French Open. He qualified here for Wimbledon and has dismissed Ivo Karlovic and Gael Monfils along the way.
I expect the Polish player to cause a few problems, but his serve is not as good as Lopez' and I feel that will be the difference in this match. Kubot also has no previous form on grass, although pushing Philipp Petzschner to 5 sets last year, and I feel he has taken advantage of a kind draw- that should come to an end here.
Lopez already holds a win over Kubot on a clay court and his game should be more suited to take advantage on the grass.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games vs Mardy Fish: This is an intriguing battle between two players that are ranked in the top 10 of the World. Berdych's ranking is due to take a hit unless he can reach the heights of last season when he made the Final here and both players will feel confident in this match.
However, it is Berdych who has the better grass court pedigree of the two, with Mardy Fish surprisingly struggling in previous visits to SW19.
Fish has been forced to dig much deeper to reach the 2nd week here this year, while Berdych has quietly made his move through the draw.
This match could boil down to consistency in the serve, an area where I feel Berdych has the edge, and I also think his groundies are a little more penetrating.
I would not be surprised if Fish took a set, but the spread is low enough that it might not be enough to prevent Berdych from covering.
Roger Federer - 7.5 games vs Mikhail Youzhny: Roger Federer will be playing on Court 1 tomorrow afternoon, but he could play anywhere at this moment and I would struggle to see Mikhail Youzhny slowing him down.
Federer is serving exceptionally well and this is making it easier for him to attack opponents service games as he continues to play at an extremely high level. His groundstrokes have been working very well on both wings and it would take a braver man than me to predict Federer will not be playing on July 3rd on Centre Court.
Youzhny is a good grass court player, but his best days look like they are behind him. He has made good progress through the draw, although I am a little worried that Juan Monaco took him to 5 sets.
The Russian has also lost all 9 previous meetings with Federer, and they have also met on 3 occasions on grass in those losses. Youzhny's serve is not the biggest, and while he may stick around for a while, I can only see another fairly straightforward Federer win.
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games vs Juan Martin Del Potro: The tie of the 4th Round, in my opinion, and it is one I am looking forward to. Del Potro has looked fairly good in his matches here, although this will be his first match on Centre Court since 2009.
Rafael Nadal has not been at his brilliant best, but we have all seen how he works his way into a tournament. He came through a tricky tie with Gilles Muller and is still to drop a set, although you know Uncle Toni will have told him to begin stepping up his game.
The key to this match could be the movement of Del Potro- even though he has been winning matches behind his heavy groundies, I just feel the Argentine has not been totally convinced with the surface.
Nadal will get his man on the run and I think the reigning Champion will expose any shortcomings Del Potro may feel he has on the grass.
The head to head is 5-3 in favour of Nadal, their last match coming at Indian Wells in March. That is their only meeting since Del Potro destroyed Nadal for the loss of 6 games in the US Open Semi Final of 2009.
Nadal also holds a straight sets win on grass at Queens over Del Potro and I feel the same will happen here. However, I am taking the handicap rather than the sets because there is a chance Del Potro will play 1 inspired set although I would be surprised if he won a set in such a fashion to make it tough to beat this spread.
Andy Murray win 3-1 in sets vs Richard Gasquet: The final pick will be Andy Murray giving his supporters a few nervous moments before dispatching Richard Gasquet in the opening match on Centre Court.
Their last 2 meetings have come in Grand Slams, at Roland Garros in 2010 and here in 2008- on both occasions Gasquet had a 2 set lead before Murray roared back to win in 5 sets.
Murray should be too strong overall for the Frenchman again, but it would be no surprise if he threw in a couple of bad service games that results in the loss of a set as it has done against Ivan Ljubicic and Daniel Gimeno-Traver already.
Gasquet has made easy progress through the draw but will need to raise his level around 2 gears from previous opponents. Although he holds a win over Roger Federer recently, defeats to Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic since then may show he is not quite ready to compete with the very best on a consistent basis.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez - 4.5 games @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 7.5 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 2.30 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray win 3-1 sets @ 3.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 15.51 Units (+ 3.10 Units Day 6)
Wednesday, 22 June 2011
Wimbledon Day 3 Picks
Yesterday was a day of fluctuating fortunes, but one that ended in a positive manner. Wimbledon is proving to be a tough tournament to judge this year, further highlighted by the fact I have just one pick today.
I have been thinking about the picks all evening, and I just cant find a clear enough edge to pick any more than the one I settled on.
So, without further ado, on to Day 3 Picks:
Men's Treble: Stanislas Wawrinka vs Simone Bolelli, Mardy Fish vs Denis Istomin and Feliciano Lopez vs Rainer Schuettler: I have picked this treble for the following reasons-
Stanislas Wawrinka has plenty of experience on the grass courts and did what he had to do to get through one Italian, Potito Starace, already in this tournament. This time he meets Simone Bolelli, a player that has struggled for form, although can still present a danger.
Wawrinka holds a 2-0 head to head record, winning all 5 sets contested, and should come through in 3 tight sets.
Mardy Fish is looking to make his first real impact in SW19 and has all the tools to do well on the grass. His serve looked strong in the 1st Round and he meets Denis Istomin, a player struggling for form and had a 1-9 record before recording a win over Philipp Kohlschreiber in the 1st Round.
Fish should exert enough pressure on Istomin to get the breaks to win this in 3 or 4 sets.
Feliciano Lopez is a established grass court player who will feel he can go deep in this years tournament as played so well against Andy Roddick at Queens. His game is built to perform on this kind of surface and he should pose Rainer Schuettler plenty of problems.
To make matters tougher for Schuettler, he has a 1-7 head to head record with Lopez, losing the last 6 meetings. Lopez has also previously beaten Schuettler in 4 sets here at Wimbledon and I can see something similar this year.
MY PICKS: Men's Treble- Stanislas Wawrinka, Mardy Fish and Feliciano Lopez @ 1.97 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Women's Treble- Tsvetana Pironkova, Lucie Safarova and Julie Goerges @ 3.24 BetFred (1 Unit) Still Running from Day 2 with just Julie Goerges to play
TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 0.59 Units (+ 1.59 Units Day 2)
I have been thinking about the picks all evening, and I just cant find a clear enough edge to pick any more than the one I settled on.
So, without further ado, on to Day 3 Picks:
Men's Treble: Stanislas Wawrinka vs Simone Bolelli, Mardy Fish vs Denis Istomin and Feliciano Lopez vs Rainer Schuettler: I have picked this treble for the following reasons-
Stanislas Wawrinka has plenty of experience on the grass courts and did what he had to do to get through one Italian, Potito Starace, already in this tournament. This time he meets Simone Bolelli, a player that has struggled for form, although can still present a danger.
Wawrinka holds a 2-0 head to head record, winning all 5 sets contested, and should come through in 3 tight sets.
Mardy Fish is looking to make his first real impact in SW19 and has all the tools to do well on the grass. His serve looked strong in the 1st Round and he meets Denis Istomin, a player struggling for form and had a 1-9 record before recording a win over Philipp Kohlschreiber in the 1st Round.
Fish should exert enough pressure on Istomin to get the breaks to win this in 3 or 4 sets.
Feliciano Lopez is a established grass court player who will feel he can go deep in this years tournament as played so well against Andy Roddick at Queens. His game is built to perform on this kind of surface and he should pose Rainer Schuettler plenty of problems.
To make matters tougher for Schuettler, he has a 1-7 head to head record with Lopez, losing the last 6 meetings. Lopez has also previously beaten Schuettler in 4 sets here at Wimbledon and I can see something similar this year.
MY PICKS: Men's Treble- Stanislas Wawrinka, Mardy Fish and Feliciano Lopez @ 1.97 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Women's Treble- Tsvetana Pironkova, Lucie Safarova and Julie Goerges @ 3.24 BetFred (1 Unit) Still Running from Day 2 with just Julie Goerges to play
TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 0.59 Units (+ 1.59 Units Day 2)
Monday, 20 June 2011
Wimbledon Day 1 Picks
The third Grand Slam of the year is upon us and it is one of my favourite tournaments, especially being so close to the event.
The weather forecast for the first week is disappointing to say the least, and it will be the first year when the roof on Centre Court will be used heavily in my opinion. Tomorrow we are to expect consistent rain for much of the day and I have a feeling that a lot of matches will have to be postponed for Tuesday.
Worryingly for the organisers, Tuesday seems to be the only day where rain is not forecasted and we may just see play on the middle Sunday, a day usually reserved for rest.
It also looks like a tough opening day to make picks, with plenty of very short prices around while the handicaps are set almost perfectly to leave me doubtful of the outcome. However, I will play a couple of picks from today.
Now on to the picks from Day 1:
Fernando Verdasco - 3 games vs Radek Stepanek: Fernando Verdasco does not have the best pedigree on the grass courts, but he has had plenty of practice this season as he gets ready for Wimbledon. A win over David Nalbandian at Queens shows he does have the capabilities to produce good results on the surface.
Radek Stepanek has had a decent couple of weeks on the grass courts, but he is not at the same level as a couple of years ago. He may well cause problems for a little while, but the strength of Verdasco's shots are sure to give him the edge.
The head to head is 3-2 in favour of Stepanek, but it is Verdasco who has won the last 2 meetings. Verdasco has won the last 5 sets played against Stepanek for the loss of just 8 games.
Stepanek did beat Verdasco in 5 sets here in 2006, but I think the players have moved in separate directions since then, and I do think the Spaniard will move forward.
Four Fold: Feliciano Lopez vs Michael Berrer, Richard Gasquet vs Santiago Giraldo, Ekaterina Makarova vs Christine McHale and Jelena Jankovic vs Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez: I hate putting more than a treble in for tennis picks but I feel all 4 players have a good chance of progressing here.
Feliciano Lopez has performed well at Wimbledon in the past and I think he will be too strong in a tight match with Michael Berrer.
Richard Gasquet has not played competitive tennis since the French Open, but should have too much nous for his Colombian opponent.
Ekaterina Makarova has shown some real good grass court pedigree this year following on from a win at Eastbourne last year.
Jelena Jankovic is the most worrying pick against an opponent that has a winning record head to head against her. Jankovic has also not played since the French Open so may take a little time getting used to the grass. However, she has played well on the surface in previous years and I fancy her to get the job done in 2 tight sets.
MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Four Fold: Feliciano Lopez, Richard Gasquet, Ekaterina Makarova and Jelena Jankovic to win @ 2.41 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
The weather forecast for the first week is disappointing to say the least, and it will be the first year when the roof on Centre Court will be used heavily in my opinion. Tomorrow we are to expect consistent rain for much of the day and I have a feeling that a lot of matches will have to be postponed for Tuesday.
Worryingly for the organisers, Tuesday seems to be the only day where rain is not forecasted and we may just see play on the middle Sunday, a day usually reserved for rest.
It also looks like a tough opening day to make picks, with plenty of very short prices around while the handicaps are set almost perfectly to leave me doubtful of the outcome. However, I will play a couple of picks from today.
Now on to the picks from Day 1:
Fernando Verdasco - 3 games vs Radek Stepanek: Fernando Verdasco does not have the best pedigree on the grass courts, but he has had plenty of practice this season as he gets ready for Wimbledon. A win over David Nalbandian at Queens shows he does have the capabilities to produce good results on the surface.
Radek Stepanek has had a decent couple of weeks on the grass courts, but he is not at the same level as a couple of years ago. He may well cause problems for a little while, but the strength of Verdasco's shots are sure to give him the edge.
The head to head is 3-2 in favour of Stepanek, but it is Verdasco who has won the last 2 meetings. Verdasco has won the last 5 sets played against Stepanek for the loss of just 8 games.
Stepanek did beat Verdasco in 5 sets here in 2006, but I think the players have moved in separate directions since then, and I do think the Spaniard will move forward.
Four Fold: Feliciano Lopez vs Michael Berrer, Richard Gasquet vs Santiago Giraldo, Ekaterina Makarova vs Christine McHale and Jelena Jankovic vs Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez: I hate putting more than a treble in for tennis picks but I feel all 4 players have a good chance of progressing here.
Feliciano Lopez has performed well at Wimbledon in the past and I think he will be too strong in a tight match with Michael Berrer.
Richard Gasquet has not played competitive tennis since the French Open, but should have too much nous for his Colombian opponent.
Ekaterina Makarova has shown some real good grass court pedigree this year following on from a win at Eastbourne last year.
Jelena Jankovic is the most worrying pick against an opponent that has a winning record head to head against her. Jankovic has also not played since the French Open so may take a little time getting used to the grass. However, she has played well on the surface in previous years and I fancy her to get the job done in 2 tight sets.
MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Four Fold: Feliciano Lopez, Richard Gasquet, Ekaterina Makarova and Jelena Jankovic to win @ 2.41 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Sunday, 5 June 2011
Tennis Picks June 6th 2011
I am not making any outright picks from the tournaments at Queens, Halle, Birmingham and Copenhagen simply because it can be a bit of a minefield determining which players will pull out of events the week after a Grand Slam. There is also an additional problem of players trying not to peak too early with another Grand Slam due to start in 2 weeks time.
Therefore, I will mainly stick to making a few plays a day (where possible) as I try to keep the bank going before Wimbledon starts.
Queens, Halle and Birmingham are all grass court tournaments, Copenhagen will be played on an indoor hard court.
Queens
TREBLE: Feliciano Lopez vs Dmitry Tursunov, James Ward vs Daniel Cox, and Sam Querrey vs Kei Nishikori: All 3 of these Men picked should come through their individual tests tomorrow, although I am limiting this to a 1 unit pick as all of the players can have their off days.
Feliciano Lopez meets a good player on the grass courts, but one who has struggled with injury in recent seasons and also on the main tour this season.
James Ward has far more experience of playing in these types of matches than Daniel Cox and I expect him to show that.
Sam Querrey is the defending Champion here and has all the tools to make himself a tough grass court player. He has also picked up a little bit of form of late and has had plenty of time to get used to playing on the surface since being knocked out of the French Open.
Nishikori is a tough player, but has lost his way a little this season and is still trying to learn what Brad Gilbert is telling him.
Halle
Igor Andreev win 2-0 in sets vs Potito Starace: Neither one of these players has a strong grass court pedigree, but Starace's is far worse. In fact the Italian has lost 6 of his last 7 matches on the surface over the last few seasons, his only win coming courtesy of a retirement.
Igor Andreev can at least say he has reached the 4th Round at Wimbledon before, and he also holds a 6-1 head to head record over Starace.
Andreev has won the last 4 meetings between the two players, taking 9 sets and losing 1, while 5 of the wins have come on clay, Starace's favourite surface.
The first set could be tight, but I think Andreev has all the tools to beat Starace here. If he takes the first set, the Italian may just begin looking forward to ending this small part of the calender on the ATP Tour.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez, James Ward and Sam Querrey Treble @ 3.02 BetFred (1 Unit)
Igor Andreev win 2-0 in sets @ 2.2 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Overall Season Profit/Loss: + 37.02 Units
Therefore, I will mainly stick to making a few plays a day (where possible) as I try to keep the bank going before Wimbledon starts.
Queens, Halle and Birmingham are all grass court tournaments, Copenhagen will be played on an indoor hard court.
Queens
TREBLE: Feliciano Lopez vs Dmitry Tursunov, James Ward vs Daniel Cox, and Sam Querrey vs Kei Nishikori: All 3 of these Men picked should come through their individual tests tomorrow, although I am limiting this to a 1 unit pick as all of the players can have their off days.
Feliciano Lopez meets a good player on the grass courts, but one who has struggled with injury in recent seasons and also on the main tour this season.
James Ward has far more experience of playing in these types of matches than Daniel Cox and I expect him to show that.
Sam Querrey is the defending Champion here and has all the tools to make himself a tough grass court player. He has also picked up a little bit of form of late and has had plenty of time to get used to playing on the surface since being knocked out of the French Open.
Nishikori is a tough player, but has lost his way a little this season and is still trying to learn what Brad Gilbert is telling him.
Halle
Igor Andreev win 2-0 in sets vs Potito Starace: Neither one of these players has a strong grass court pedigree, but Starace's is far worse. In fact the Italian has lost 6 of his last 7 matches on the surface over the last few seasons, his only win coming courtesy of a retirement.
Igor Andreev can at least say he has reached the 4th Round at Wimbledon before, and he also holds a 6-1 head to head record over Starace.
Andreev has won the last 4 meetings between the two players, taking 9 sets and losing 1, while 5 of the wins have come on clay, Starace's favourite surface.
The first set could be tight, but I think Andreev has all the tools to beat Starace here. If he takes the first set, the Italian may just begin looking forward to ending this small part of the calender on the ATP Tour.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez, James Ward and Sam Querrey Treble @ 3.02 BetFred (1 Unit)
Igor Andreev win 2-0 in sets @ 2.2 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Overall Season Profit/Loss: + 37.02 Units
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)