Tennis Recap (June 11-17)

Another week has gone by on the Tour and we are now just seven days from the start of the third Grand Slam of the season at Wimbledon. That means we have the last of the grass court events starting this week before Wimbledon and most of the top players will be playing exhibition events rather than proper tournaments.

It was a controversial end to the tournament at Queens this week and where else can I start?!


David Nalbandian is disqualified in the Final at Queens: I haven't seen anything like what happened on Sunday as David Nalbandian was forced to default the Final at Queens even though he was leading 1-0 in sets and was a break down in the second set.


I am sure most of you would have seen the incident when Nalbandian kicked the sponsors panel that shattered and ended up cutting a line judge's leg- it was a really unfortunate incident, but I can't excuse it and there could really have only been one way that match was going to go as soon as he did what he did.


I do think it was out of order to get Nalbandian to have an immediate interview on court where the questions were too much when someone is still in an emotional state. All they had to do was to get Nalbandian to apologise and move on rather than pushing for him to answer questions- how many of us would be in a position to speak at such an emotional juncture?


I am glad to see that Nalbandian has since released a couple of statements showing how apologetic he is about the whole situation, while he was the same in the press interview afterwards when he was a little calmer.


It is already a shame that Nalbandian will lose his prize money and his ranking points from the event, points that would have seen him likely seeded for Wimbledon.


I don't agree with the numpties who are 'demanding' that he serves a suspension as I think the fact is he has come to Queens and basically played while losing money all week with no prize money or ranking points gained- that is enough punishment, as well as the shame in losing a Final in the manner he did, so the idea that he should be suspended is beyond laughable.


The kick was a mistake and he didn't intend to hit the line judge, so I think the punishment is already complete.


I was fortunate enough to meet Nalbandian this week and have a quick chat with him- he was friendly, happy to sign my ticket and also to have a photo taken and all this was around an hour before he was due on court so I wasn't disappointed in meeting my favourite player of the last ten years- it's a shame that he couldn't get his name on the winners board, but I hope he does come back in the coming years.


Least now I won't hear the numerous people asking who is at the event(!)




The difference in Roger Federer's and Rafael Nadal's defeats at Halle: I have said for some time that I don't think Roger Federer is at 100% with his health and I expect he will take the time off between Wimbledon and the Olympic games. His defeat in the Final at Halle was disappointing and he has looked a little jaded at times during the week.


I find it very hard to imagine that he can go to Wimbledon and have a real chance of winning the tournament with the way he has been playing since winning in Madrid- he struggled to put away lesser opponents at the French Open and he just hasn't looked right to me in using the eye test.


There will be some out there that are wondering why I have these concerns about Federer and not the same thing when it comes to Rafael Nadal and the answer is pretty simple- Nadal has never really had a strong pedigree in the tournament between the French Open and Wimbledon, unlike Federer.


Nadal has won the tournament at Queens, but 4 of his 5 appearances at that tournament has seen him go out at the Quarter Final stage and he has reached the Final at Wimbledon or won that event soon after.


All Nadal considers at this stage is to get a bit of practice on the grass and he has done that and I have no doubt he will be ready for Wimbledon. The draw will still be important to see whether he can get to the Final and win the event, but that will be analysed at the end of the coming week.




Should we read anything into all the seeds falling at Queens?: It was a strange tournament all around at Queens, culminating in the David Nalbandian situation, but the question is what to read into all the top seeds falling so quickly at the tournament.


Andy Murray, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Andy Roddick and Janko Tipsarevic were all early losers, but I don't think we should read anything into it... Well nothing more than it just being one of those tournaments where it happens from time to time.


Murray and Tipsarevic will be going on to The Boodles this week to play some exhibition matches to get up to speed on the grass, while Andy Roddick is playing down in Eastbourne although he has been given a tough draw against Sam Querrey, but the biggest news may be about Tsonga.




Will Jo-Wilfried Tsonga make it to Wimbledon?: This was the biggest news (before the David Nalbandian situation) coming out of Queens as far as I was concerned as the Frenchman has potentially broken a finger and could be forced to miss Wimbledon.


This will be a big shame for the event, especially after Tsonga's performance at the French Open which had seemed to have filled him with confidence for the grass court season.


Outside of the top four players in the World, I thought Tsonga had the best chance to really have an impact at Wimbledon so I am looking forward to hearing what has happened to his finger and whether he is going to be missing.


The suggestions are that he will be fine and will be in the field next Monday, but I think I will keep an eye on him and see if he takes part in any exhibition matches.


If fully fit and ready to go, Tsonga could really make people sit up and take notice in the coming weeks with Wimbledon and the Olympic games both taking place on the grass he loves playing on.




Weekly Final: + 3.76 Units (18 Units Staked)


Season 2012 Update: + 61.74 Units (510 Units Staked, 12.11% Yield)


Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Picks Tuesday 11 October (Shanghai Masters)

It has been a while since I last played any tennis matches as we have had the break from the US Open while the tournaments being played have not really appealed to me too much.

However, we come to one of the final Masters Events of the season and I didn't make any outright picks as both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic pulled out with fatigue and injury, and that obviously means Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal are the short priced favourites to win the tournament.

4 of the top 10 are missing this week, while the dangerous Juan Martin Del Potro is not playing either, so the prices were significantly short on the top two players and I decided to give the outright market a miss.

I expect both Murray and Nadal to go close this week, if not win the tournament, but I will stick to the daily picks and hopefully keep the profit going upwards as the season draws to a close.

On to the Picks:

Feliciano Lopez + 3 games vs Janko Tipsarevic: Tipsarevic has been in the better form of late after winning a tournament in Kuala Lumpur, but Feliciano Lopez has the game to give him plenty of fits as he can win plenty of free point off his booming serve if it is on its game.

Lopez is a former Semi Finalist in this tournament, and he holds a 4-1 head to head record against Tipsarevic so I think he can at least keep this match close, hopefully pushing it to 3 sets if he does lose.

Tipsarevic does have the potential of making the World Tour Finals if he absolutely aces the last few weeks of the season, but this looks like being a tough 1st Round encounter for him so I will take the games.


David Nalbandian - 3.5 games vs Florian Mayer: David Nalbandian has been playing some good tennis recently, even if he is coming to the back end of his career, and he does have the game that can give Florian Mayer fits.

Mayer does not have the big weapons off the ground that will bother Nalbandian, and will not get too many free points off a weak serve, and these are areas that the Argentine should be able to exploit.

Nalbandian has won the previous pair of meetings between the players, although the last was back in 2005, but I think he should be good enough to come through tomorrow.


MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez + 3 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Nalbandian - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Bodog (2 Units)




SEASON TOTAL: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Picks August 15th

It is a brand new week following wins for Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams in Montreal and Toronto respectively, and we have yet another Masters tournament beginning with this week representing the last really important week before the final Grand Slam of the season begins at Flushing Meadows on August 29th.

My outright picks are already up on the blog and a couple of the 1st Round matches were played yesterday with Juan Martin Del Potro and James Blake moving through to the 2nd Round.

The early Rounds can be a bit of a minefield, even in these Masters events, but I will be hoping I can continue the form that produced a profit last week.

On to the Picks:

Klara Zakopalova vs Lucie Safarova: I am beginning the week by taking this big priced underdog to surprise Lucie Safarova.

I think the higher ranked Czech player has been set as the short priced favourite after a decent week in Toronto where she was eventually defeated in 3 sets by Serena Williams. On the other hand, Zakopalova was comfortably beaten by Greta Arn.

However, it seems like Safarova stuggles when she meets her compatriot with Zakopalova holding a 4-1 head to head record.

Safarova beat Zakopalova in 3 sets at the Australian Open in January, but has since lost in Dubai on the hard courts and at Wimbledon in a surprise defeat in 3 sets.

Safarova struggled on the hard courts last season, including a 1st Round exit at this tournament, and she does look ripe for the surprise defeat here.


Feliciano Lopez vs Juan Carlos Ferrero: Neither one of these players has played much hard court tennis this Summer, instead opting to play in clay court events and it was no surprise to see both exiting early in Montreal last week.

Feliciano Lopez should have the edge on these faster courts over Ferrero mainly thanks to a stronger serve and I think that will lead to a win for him here.

Lopez has won the last 2 meetings between the players, although the last was back in 2007, and I think he has been in good enough form of late to come through even if it takes 3 sets.


Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games vs Thomaz Bellucci: I hate taking Fernando Verdasco these days as he has returned to the inconsistent form that blighted his game pre-Australia in 2009.

However, he is playing an opponent that is clearly struggling to adjust his game to these faster surfaces this season and I believe Verdasco will be able to come through in straight sets, although don't expect it to be easy.

Bellucci won their last meeting on the clay courts of Mexico earlier this year, but I am going to back Verdasco to reverse that form here.


David Nalbandian vs Kei Nishikori: Another player that I hate backing these days is David Nalbandian, and it does look like he won't be on the Tour for too much longer.

I have a soft spot for Nalbandian as I have considered him one of my favourite players over the last decade, but he is clearly not the force of old.

However, I am not convinced he should be considered an outsider against the talented, but inconsistent, Kei Nishikori. The Japanese player is under the tutelage of Brad Gilbert these days, but has not incorporated the 'win ugly' mentality that Gilbert instills in his pupils.

Nishikori has won a couple of qualifying rounds here in Cincinnati so should be familiar with the conditions- I just don't think he deserves to be favourite against a Nalbandian just yet.


MY PICKS: Klara Zakopalova @ 3.5 BlueSquare (1 Unit)
Feliciano Lopez @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Nalbandian @ 2.20 Victor Chandler (1 Unit)

Tennis Picks August 8th

It is the first day of the Masters in Montreal and the big event in the WTA in Toronto and there are plenty of matches going on. The big players will not be starting until tomorrow at the earliest, but we do have a couple of matches that could be of interest.

On to the Picks:

Double; Nadia Petrova vs Jarmila Gajdosova and Jelena Jankovic vs Julia Goerges: This is a interesting double, but I think both players are more than capable of coming through tough tests.

Nadia Petrova won a hard court event in Washington recently and was also in form at Wimbledon where she reached the 4th Round. The hard courts favour her big hitting play and she could take advantage of a struggling Jarmila Gajdosova. The Australian lost early in San Diego last week and has lost 3 matches in a row, while she also exited early in tournaments at Indian Wells and Miami.

Petrova beat Gajdosova in their only previous meeting on the hard courts of Seoul.

Jelena Jankovic has always performed well on the hard courts and she reached the Quarter Final in Miami and the 4th Round in Indian Wells. She has not played since Wimbledon, but is playing Julia Goerges who is very much out of form after a very good clay court season.

Jankovic has beaten Goerges in both their career meetings, including in Miami earlier this season.


David Nalbandian vs Stanislas Wawrinka: David Nalbandian does look like a player that is coming towards the end of his career and I also think he must be thinking about retiring and how much more he wants from the game.

He lost early in Washington last week against the reinvigorated James Blake, but I think Nalbandian can get the better of Wawrinka today.

The Swiss Number 2 has played a couple of matches since Wimbledon, but this will be his first match on the hard courts of North America during this Summer. He has lost some surprising matches of late, including to Simone Bolelli at Wimbledon and Marcel Granollers at Gstaad, and he also lost early in Miami.

Wawrinka lost early in Toronto and Cincinnati last season, but importantly he lost to David Nalbandian in Washington in his first match on the hard courts in the Summer.

That was the last time Nalbandian and Wawrinka played and now leaves the head to head 5-3 in favour of the Swiss player. Wawrinka had won 5 matches in a row before the defeat in Washington and the head to head is 1-1 on the hard courts of North America.

I wouldn't go crazy on this one, but I am going to have a small interest on Nalbandian winning this match.


Treble; Kevin Anderson vs Pablo Andujar, Thomaz Bellucci vs Andrey Golubev and Nikolay Davydenko vs Flavio Cipolla: This treble should be able to come through, but I am again going to keep stakes to a minimum considering the 3 favourites are all inconsistent and capable of throwing in a shocking match to lose.

Kevin Anderson should be able to take care of the predominantly clay court player Pablo Andujar, and has an easy straight sets victory over the Spaniard in Miami earlier this year.

Thomaz Bellucci is getting a little better on the hard courts, although he has not not fully got to grips with the faster surface, but I expect he will be too good for the struggling Andrey Golubev. The Kazakhstan Number 1 finally got back to winning ways when reaching a Semi Final in a Challenger in his home country, but Bellucci should be step too good for him and come through.

Nikolay Davydenko is not the player of 18 months ago and his groundstrokes are not as consistent as they used to be. His coach, who is also his brother, no longer travels the tour with Davydenko and he is another player coming to the end of his career as far as I can see. I still think Davydenko will be far too good for Flavio Cipolla, but the Italian has qualified for this event so his familiarity with the conditions could make this tougher than it should be.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games vs Jarkko Nieminen: Juan Martin Del Potro will be disappointed to have lost so early in LA recently, and he will expect a good showing in Montreal at a tournament where he reached the Final in his only appearance.

His power game could be far too much for Nieminen today, especially with the Finn's serve likely to be exposed.

Del Potro beat Nieminen comfortably in their 3 previous meetings, although all of those came before the wrist injury that curtailed the Argentine's progress last year. Nieminen had won just 11 games in the 5 full sets he has played against Del Potro in previous meetings.


Ekaterina Makarova vs Rebecca Marino: Ekaterina Makarova has let me down on 2 occasions in the last few months and I am going to take her to win this match as I think the wrong favourite has been set in the match.

Makarova qualified for this event and reached the 2nd Round last year when it was held in Montreal, and she has performed on the hard courts. She reached the 2nd Round in Indian Wells before losing to Victoria Azarenka and the 3rd Round in Miami before losing to Marion Bartoli.

Rebecca Marino is playing in front of her home fans, but she is yet to make a real impact on the main WTA Tour in her young career. She has been comfortably beaten in the last two tournaments in Stanford and San Diego when coming up against the better players.

Interestingly, Marino was beaten by Makarova in Indian Wells earlier this season in 3 sets- that means Makarova has a 2-0 head to head record against her young opponent. That also includes a straight sets victory in Montreal last season in the Qualifying Rounds and I expect the more experienced player to come through again.


MY PICKS: Double; Nadia Petrova and Jelena Jankovic @ 2.20 BetFred (1 Unit)
Ekaterina Makarova @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
David Nalbandian @ 2.15 Bodog (1 Unit)
Treble; Kevin Anderson, Thomaz Bellucci and Nikolay Davydenko @ 2.15 BoyleSports (1 Unit)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Tennis Picks August 2nd Washington and San Diego

It has been an incredibly busy day today meaning I could not get on with my picks at a reasonable time so I am going to ignore the San Diego matches as they start very soon and I have not had time to look and analyse my picks.

On the other hand, we have a bit of time before the Washington tournament starts so I will make a couple of plays from there:

Ryan Sweeting vs Alex Bogomolov: It is hard picking through these early round matches as you get some untrustworthy players that are more likely to stress you out than give you an easy win.

In saying that, I am going to back Ryan Sweeting to beat his compatriot tonight even though Bogomolov has been in the better form when looking at his Semi Final appearance in Los Angeles last week.

Sweeting has not been playing that well in recent weeks but he did perform pretty well at Delray Beach and Indian Wells earlier this season and the hard courts in the US should be his best surface. He also has decent course form by reaching the 3rd Round here in Washington last year.

Bogomolov has had a couple of strong tournaments on the hard courts this year with the Semi Final from last week backed up by a 3rd Round appearance in Miami. He is perhaps more notable on this side of the pond for beating Andy Murray earlier this year.

Ryan Sweeting has also won 4 of the 7 matches they have played- in fact he is 3-1 in the last 4 matches that have taken place over the last 18 months and he also beat Bogomolov in the qualifiers here last year.


James Blake vs David Nalbandian: This could be a terrible pick at around 2am British time, but I think James Blake has a chance in surprising David Nalbandian here.

Blake has played some decent tennis over the last month on the hard courts so he should be mostly comfortable on the surface. It has taken the likes of John Isner and Juan Martin Del Potro to stop his runs and the American must be disappointed to be handed this tough 2nd Round match.

However, Nalbandian has not played a match since Wimbledon as injury and then lack of entry to tournaments has given him an extended time off. He is the reigning Champion here so motivation should be high with points to defend, but it is a tough test on little competitive tennis.

Blake also won their only previous meeting and could cause problems if he is hitting the ball well- the problem these days is the lack of consistency that Blake has and Nalbandian basically won this tournament last year with little tennis coming in.

As I said, it might look silly at 2am this morning, but I will back the underdog here too.


MY PICKS: Ryan Sweeting @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
James Blake @ 2.20 Stan James (1 Unit)


WEEKLY UPDATE WASHINGTON/SAN DIEGO: + 0.2 Units