Tennis Picks 2023 (July 18th)

No one will ever say the 'Big Three' era of men's tennis has been bad for the sport, but there comes a time when the future has to arrive if a sport is going to continue to thrive.

Roger Federer has officially retired and it sounds like Rafael Nadal might try and get healthy for one more full year on the Tour in 2024 having not played since his Second Round upset loss at the Australian Open back in January. And at 36 years old, Novak Djokovic is certainly reaching the latter part of his career, which means someone had to come through and fill in.

The dominance of the Big Three has hurt a couple of generations of players, but men's tennis might finally be ready to see a new era of stars come through and win multiple Grand Slam titles.

Carlos Alcaraz will be leading the way as the current holder of the US Open title and now the Wimbledon Champion and he is one of a handful of multiple Slam Winners now operating on the Tour. The likes of Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev have had their Grand Slam moments and could have more than the one US Open that each has won, but Carlos Alcaraz looks the player that will take tennis forward with the likes of Holger Rune and Jannik Sinner now having someone to chase.

The Spaniard will likely go into the US Open as the favourite to defend the title he won there last year, but Novak Djokovic will know he was one or two points from winning the Wimbledon title himself and the Serb is going to be massively motivated by what happened on Sunday. This could mean we have a couple of years of a really good rivalry between the King and the Prince of men's tennis and hopefully the bar has been raised for some of the younger players who have the capabilities of bridging the gap.

Novak Djokovic has not won the US Open since 2018, but he has not had a lot of luck in New York in recent years and he will be doing all he can to change that. Last year he was not even allowed to travel to the tournament, but in 2020 it was a Default that proved costly in the Fourth Round, while the loss to Daniil Medvedev in 2021 saw Djokovic run out of steam having won the first three Grand Slams of the season and having a five set Semi Final win before losing the Final.

The final Grand Slam of the season cannot come around quickly enough and Novak Djokovic is still the favourite to finish with the Number 1 World Ranking at the end of the season. Carlos Alcaraz winning Wimbledon is great news for tennis fans because we are going to see Djokovic find a renewed motivation to keep himself on the throne as the King and this can only be good news for those watching on.

Sports are all about having the next generation come in and move things forward and Carlos Alcaraz is looking the player to get behind to take things on from the Big Three era.

Women's tennis is looking to Iga Swiatek to do that for their side of the sport, but it is a touch disappointing that the two perceived main rivals to the Pole were not able to win the title at Wimbledon. It means Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina both only have one previous Grand Slam victory and more is needed from both of them to really help build a genuine rivalry at the top of the WTA Tour.

Iga Swiatek has won four Grand Slam titles, but has never really enjoyed playing at Wimbledon so her Quarter Final defeat was not completely unexpected, even in the weaker half of the draw. Elena Rybakina was also beaten in the last eight, while Sabalenka will be wondering how she blew her winning position in yet another Grand Slam Semi Final defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.

All credit has to be given to Marketa Vondrousova for winning the Wimbledon title and the lefty could be a top player on the Tour as long as she can stay healthy after wrist issues just held her career back. Not many would have tipped Vondrousova up for the title before a ball had been hit at Wimbledon and she was arguably one point away from losing her Quarter Final match against Jessica Pegula as the Czech player became the latest maiden Grand Slam winner.

The victory also means that half of the last fourteen Grand Slams played by the women has been won by a first time Slam Champion. Going a bit further, fourteen of the twenty-five Slams played since Serena Williams won her twenty-third and final title have been won by first time winners, while multiple Slam Champions like Naomi Osaska and Ashleigh Barty are not on the Tour now. As I have mentioned before, this is not ideal and there has to be a hope for fans of the WTA that one of the multiple former Grand Slam Champions in the US Open draw will be able to win the title.

The likes of Ons Jabeur, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff will have something to say about that in New York City in a few weeks time, but you would make the top three players in the current WTA Rankings to be the favourites when the tournament comes around.

The third Grand Slam of the season is over and there is just one more grass court tournament to be played, although that usually brings in a weaker field in Newport. This week the European summer clay court season has gotten underway with events in Bastad, Gstaad, Budapest and Palermo, while the hard court events will soon begin to get going in preparation for the US Open.

Some big names are taking part on the ATP Tour this week and I will be making some selections, although it may not be every day.

The focus will likely be on the European clay court events, with Tuesday beginning with Picks from the ATP Bastad event.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 5.5 games v Jozef Kovalik: Any player that comes through the Qualifiers has to be respected, but Jozef Kovalik has not had a very strong season on the clay courts.

In general his matches have been played against those outside the top 100 of the World Rankings and yet Kovalik holds an 11-17 record on the surface in 2023. Three times he has played against top 100 Ranked opponents and Jozef Kovalik has lost all three of those matches, while struggling with his return of serve.

It has to be expected that Kovalik will have more return success against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina who has won 61% of service points played on the red dirt in fourteen matches this year. That number does jump up to 64% when only focusing on matches played against those outside of the top 50 in the Rankings, while the Davidovich Fokina return is a major weapon for him on the surface.

Last year Alejandro Davidovich Fokina crushed Jozef Kovalik in straight sets in Hamburg and it was the return of serve that proved to be a major difference between the players on the day.

The Spaniard should have the return to put Kovalik under pressure and eventually break through the defences on his way to a relatively comfortable First Round win.

Elias Ymer - 5.5 games v Leo Borg: It will never be easy for the son of Bjorn Borg to make a big impact on the Tour with the expectations that come with the surname and that has been an issue for Leo Borg.

Of course the flip side is that Borg is going to be given a lot more opportunities because of the achievements his father had in his prime and a Wild Card into Bastad is an example of that.

Leo Borg faces another Wild Card in Elias Ymer, but the latter has been one of the stronger Swedish players since the retirement of Robin Soderling. Elias has not matched the progress made by his brother Mikael, who is surprisingly playing in Gstaad rather than here in Bastad, but Ymer is considerably higher in the World Rankings than Leo Borg.

The serve needs to be improved by Elias Ymer if he is going to crack the top 100 in the World Rankings, but he has struggled to find the consistency needed. The return is the stronger side of his tennis, but Ymer should still have too much all around for Leo Borg who has not beaten anyone Ranked inside the top 350 over the last twelve months on this surface.

The lower Ranked player has had issues remaining competitive within matches when things start going downhill and Elias Ymer should have enough to find at least four breaks of serve that should allow him to cover.

MY PICKS: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Elias Ymer - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)

Sebastian Baez - 3.5 Games @ 1.70 Coral (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Bernabe Zapata Miralles - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tomas Martin Etcheverry - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tennis Outright Picks 2013 (July 22-28)

Once again, Roger Federer has been beaten at the Semi Final stage of a tournament he would have steamrolled in his pomp and the questions remain about whether the 17 time Grand Slam winner is now in terminal decline.

He has always spoken about playing on until the next Olympic Games, but those are beginning to look a long three years away and I don't think Federer's ego will allow him to continue playing if he drops out of the top 10 in the World Rankings. That isn't likely in the immediate future, but he could have dropped a little more in twelve months time, especially with more and more players thinking they have the beating of Federer.

However, I am going to hold off on my judgement on Federer's future now he has picked up a new racquet and he will need a couple of tournaments to get a feel for that bat. The only issue I have with Federer's game that is unlikely to be given much of a change is the serve- he is definitely not as dominant behind that shot as he was a year ago and he is being made to work a lot harder to hold on to service games than he has in the last ten years on the Tour.

Another problem for Federer to overcome these days is that a lot more players feel they can beat him if they are on their game- that awe of playing the 'greatest player ever' is certainly not there at the moment, although that would quickly change if he starts winning tournaments again.


While Federer could not win as the favourite in Hamburg, it was down to Fabio Fognini to lift the title. This is only his second title on the ATP Tour, and comes just a week after he won in Bastad and it is clear the Italian is feeling very confident on the courts at the moment. He has had the talent, but has never shown the consistency he has this season, but now he looks a dangerous customer for most players on the clay, although it will be interesting to see if he can push on when the Tour reaches the hard courts of North America ahead of the US Open.

Either way, he will likely be making a leap into the top 20 in the World Rankings and that is a great achievement from a player that didn't look like he was going to convert his potential in the right manner.


Serena Williams won the tournament in Bastad and I am still not quite sure why she decided to play that event, particularly as she is skipping Stanford next week, a tournament that the best WTA players usually begin with in their preparation for the US Open next month.

It might have been down to something her sponsor has put in place or perhaps as the French Open Champion, Williams felt she should play one more clay court event this season, or might simply be because her big name rivals for the last Grand Slam of the year are also skipping the tournament.


It wasn't a good week for the picks, well the last two days were the poor ones that left the week in the red. Both outright picks made the business end of the tournaments in Hamburg and Bogota, both losing to the eventual winners, but it was not to be and that was a disappointment.

With a little more luck, it would have been another positive week, but it had been a good month so I can't complain too much. We have five tournaments being played this week as a new game begins.


ATP Gstaad
Just after Wimbledon was concluded, we learnt that Roger Federer was taking a Wild Card at two events in July- the first was in Hamburg last week and the second was in Gstaad to be played in front of his Swiss supporters.

The draw for the Number 1 seed could not be much better as far as I am concerned and this looks the perfect chance for Federer to double his number of titles this season. The first bonus for Federer is that he 'only' has to beat four players to win the title here while the seeded players in this section, Roberto Bautista-Agut, Juan Monaco, and Mikhail Youzhny will not hold too many fears for Federer.

Even the non-seeded players don't present a lot of dangers for Federer and I think it would be a huge surprise if he is not playing next Sunday.

It is very likely that we will see an all-Swiss Final next week as the Number 2 seed here is Stanislas Wawrinka and he is a player that is very capable on the clay courts and also has a reasonable draw in front of him.

However, Wawrinka has only reached one Final in Gstaad despite appearing here ten times in the past, although I can't pinpoint who is most likely to come through this half of the draw if the Swiss player can't make it through.

Janko Tipsarevic is playing here after flying from Bogota last week, while the clay is certainly not the favoured surface of Feliciano Lopez. It could be a couple of former winners that are able to take the most advantage of the draw as both Thomaz Bellucci (won here last season) and Marcel Granollers (winner in 2011) may go deep in the draw if they get through tough First Round encounters.


With the way the draw has panned out, it is tough to look past Roger Federer to add to his list of titles at an event that he does hold dear and backing him looks the call at odds against.


ATP Atlanta
This tournament is the first of the US Open hard court series as the build up to the final Grand Slam of the season will begin.

In the past, a big American contingent would turn up in Atlanta to open the run to the US Open and all three previous editions of the tournament have been won by an American- Andy Roddick won last season and Mardy Fish had won the first two editions, although he makes his return from large injury problems this time around.

John Isner is the Number 1 seed here this week and he looks in the tougher half of the draw in my opinion. He could meet Alejandro Falla, fresh off reaching the Final in Bogota last week, as early as the Second Round, but the biggest threat may just come through Lleyton Hewitt.

The Australian had a solid grass court season and he has a decent record against Isner by winning the last two matches between the pair and also holding a 5-1 head to head record. Hewitt loves playing a lot of the big servers as they give him the pace that makes his return of serve so effective, but he could face a tough battle against Ivan Dodig in the Quarter Final and it is tough to feel totally confident of which player comes through the section.

A man I backed last week could come to the fore in Kevin Anderson- the big serving South African is in the easier half of the draw as the Number 2 seed this week and he has had a very good 2013 while he reached the Semi Final last week in Bogota.

He could face his conqueror from last week in the Second Round in Ivo Karlovic, but the latter won the tournament last week and could be struggling for a bit of fitness after going three months off the Tour. Other players like Denis Istomin and Igor Sijsling could cause some problems, while the aforementioned Mardy Fish is coming off a long lay off so Anderson looks the call from this half.


A small interest on Kevin Anderson going a little better than in Bogota last week looks the call here. 


MY PICKS: Roger Federer @ 2.20 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson @ 5.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)


Tennis Outright Picks (July 15-21): 0-2, - 3 Units (3 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Tennis Daily Picks (July 15-21): 10-12, - 4.92 Units (44 Units Staked, - 11.18% Yield)

Season 2013: + 27.30 Units (853.5 Units Staked, + 3.20% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Outright Picks 2013 (July 15-21)

The first week after the end of a Grand Slam is usually a quiet week in the tennis world as most of the general public have turned their attention to something other than the tournaments that feature few of the top players in the world.

While many people who watch tennis regularly will recognise some of the Winners and Finalists this week, for a casual viewer the likes of Fabio Fognini and Carlos Berlocq being at the business end of tournaments would be an unfamiliar sight.

To be fair, both Fognini and Berlocq could be considered surprises to a lot of folks, although both are in the midst of their best season on the main Tour in their career. Fognini in particular has always had a lot of upside, but he is finally putting more consistency together and could be someone to keep an eye on, although the serve is weakness that will very likely prevent him becoming much more than a top 20 player.


One piece of news that was of interest this week was the appointment of Jimmy Connors as the new coach for Maria Sharapova. The Russian clearly must feel that she need something a little different to become a regular Grand Slam winner, but the choice of Connors is an interesting one. He did do some sterling work with Andy Roddick for the short time they were together and actually revived his fellow American's career at a time when it seemed Roddick was drifting a little bit on the Tour and was no longer a threat at Grand Slam level.

It will be interesting to see how Connors and Sharapova work together, although they have spent time together previously which ended with the latter winning the Australian Open. We will likely see the fruits of their labour early next season with little time until the US Open, but it is definitely a good appointment as far as I am concerned.


This week we will have a surprise participant in the ATP Hamburg event, but it is also strange to see Serena Williams playing in Bastad where the second seeded player is 30 in the World Rankings. Of course, Williams is an absolute huge favourite to add that title to her collection, but I can't figure out why she is playing another clay court event ahead of the big tournament in Stanford and the two Premier events in Canada and Cincinnati that will be taking place within the next month.


It was a decent week for the picks last time out, but it was a real shame that Lleyton Hewitt couldn't complete the win in Newport. He was up a set and serving for the match in the second set but suddenly became very nervous on his own serve and was broken in back to back service games.

Even in the third set, it was Hewitt that earned the first break of serve against Nicolas Mahut, but he couldn't save a break point while the Frenchman was on the floor and was broken in back to back service games for a second time in the match.

However, even with that setback and the three outright picks not being very helpful, it was still a good week for the picks and the results are below my picks for the tournaments to take place this week/


ATP Bogota
You can always tell the quality of a tournament by looking at the Rankings of the seeded players and it says a lot that 4th seeded player here, Eduoard Roger-Vasselin, is down at 71 in the World Rankings.

Unsurprisingly with that in mind, the outright market is top heavy at this first time tournament in Bogota since being purchased from Los Angeles. Both Janko Tipsarevic and Kevin Anderson are the two favourites to win this tournament and I think the latter is the one that could make hay.

Anderson struggled after Wimbledon last year, but he has had a decent season this time around and the draw favours him more than the Number 1 seed Tipsarevic in my opinion.

The South African Number 2 seed should be a little too good for home favourite Santiago Giraldo and the likes of Adrian Mannarino and Igor Sijsling who are potential Semi Final opponents.

On the other hand, Tipsarevic has not been in great form in 2013 and has dropped out of the top ten in the World Rankings. He also has an awkward match against Xavier Malisse that could block his path to the Final.

In my opinion, there isn't a great deal of threat here for the top two seeds so it would be a surprise if the winner didn't come from one of them. Kevin Anderson has reached five Finals in his career and four of those have come on the hard courts- he has also won his only two titles on hard courts and I will have a small interest in him this week.


ATP Hamburg
I believe this is the last ATP 500 event taking place on the clay courts this season and there is at least one big surprise entrant in the field in Hamburg this week Roger Federer took a Wild Card into the event as he is clearly wanting to improve his current World Number 5 Ranking and he is the top seed and the clear favourite to win a tournament where he enjoyed plenty of success during the years it was a Masters event.

However, he looks remarkably short to me even in a field where no other player from the top 10 is taking part. At the moment, Federer looks extremely vulnerable against a lot of players he would be expected to breeze past and the lack of Finals, let alone titles, has to be a concern for him.

Usually in a field that has gathered in Germany, Federer would be odds on to win, yet even being slightly odds against doesn't appeal to me. The main reason for my own lack of excitement surrounding his chances is the fact that Ernests Gulbis is a potential Third Round opponent.

Gulbis loves to raise his game against the best players on the Tour and all three of his previous matches against Federer have gone the distance and, more importantly, he will have the belief he can beat the former World Number 1 on this surface having split two matches on clay in the past.

That match alone would concern me as a Federer backer in the outright market, although I would expect him to see off most of the other competition in the top half of the draw including Feliciano Lopez, Fernando Verdasco, Jerzy Janowicq and Tommy Robredo.


With some potential doubts over the favourite, I will look to the loaded bottom half of the draw for a potential Winner and Finalist.

The two Finalists from last season, Juan Monaco and Tommy Haas and it is the latter that I believe could return to that game. Haas was a surprise loser in the Quarter Final last week in Stuttgart and certainly doesn't have an easy path through to the Final with dangers lurking from the first match, most likely against Victor Hanescu.

Players like Fabio Fognini, Andreas Seppi, Albert Ramos and Marcel Granollers could all cause problems, but I expect Haas can come through this section to a Semi Final berth. Fognini played really well in Stuttgart last week, but winning his first title on the ATP Tour could mean partying for the Italian and he may not be in the best shape in Hamburg for another long week, while the other three players don't look as strong as Haas.

My concern for Haas would be that the clay courts are not his favourite surface, but reaching the Final here last season and winning in Munich will make him believe he can go deep again. And in the Semi Final he could face an opponent that has a lot of tennis in their legs with dangers lurking around every corner in that section of the draw.

Last year's winner, Juan Monaco, will have his supporters, but he could face the dangerous Gael Monfils in his first match, while the likes of Nicolas Almagro and Mikhail Youzhny will certainly feel they can go deep this week. I have doubts about all four of their players and their ability to beat Haas this week and so I'll have a small interest in the home crowd getting a German Finalist for the second year in a row.


MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson @ 2.75 Coral (1 Unit)
Tommy Haas @ 9.00 Stan James (1 Unit E/W)


Tennis Outright Picks (July 8-14): 0-3, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Tennis Daily Picks (July 8-14): 17-7, + 17.94 Units (46 Units Staked, + 39% Yield)

Season 2013: + 35.22 Units (809.5 Units Staked, + 4.35% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Recap July 28-August 5 (London Olympics and Washington)

The Olympic Games are over, as far as the tennis players are concerned anyway, and everyone will be moving to Canada in preparation for the US Open which will be beginning in a little over three weeks from today.

Below I have a few thoughts from the tournaments played this week and I will update the profit/loss from the week and overall for the season.


Congratulations to Andy Murray, but did anyone else feel the two players would have swapped the Finals from here and Wimbledon earlier this month?: It was the biggest win in Andy Murray's career in terms of the appeal the Olympics have, but it is funny to think he will win less Ranking points than if he wins in Toronto at the Masters event next week.


I was glad to see Murray get the first 'big' title of his career and we could see him move on to bigger and better things from here, but I'll speak more about that below.


I couldn't help but wonder, while watching the Final, that I was sure that both players would perhaps have swapped winning at Wimbledon and the Olympics so Murray took home the Grand Slam title and Roger Federer took the Olympic Gold.


However, that was before I heard the Federer interview when he suggested he was disappointed but just happy to have a singles Medal to go along with the Doubles Gold he picked up four years ago and I think he is the less likely of the two that would have swapped the occasion.

In saying that, Federer could have really joined an elite number of players that have won the 'Golden Slam' and it perhaps leaves his place in history under threat from Rafael Nadal if the Spaniard can pick up a few more Grand Slam titles on his bad knees.




What now for Andy Murray?: Andy Murray has the Gold Medal and there is a genuine chance that his belief has now built to such a level that he could win at the US Open in the final Grand Slam of the season.


Murray always felt the atmosphere at Flushing Meadows plus the choice of court would suit his game the best and now he has proven he can beat one of the big three in a best of five set match when it really matters.


I hope this has given him the belief that he can kick on and win his maiden Grand Slam title, while the US Open could represent his best chance to do so.


Rafael Nadal is still to return from injury, Novak Djokovic looks exhausted and Roger Federer is turning 31 and is also in need of a rest.


My concern still comes up in whether Murray can continuously produce when the matches are best of five from the First Round rather than best of three before the Final, but he is playing probably the best tennis of all the players on Tour at this moment.


The draw, as ever, will be all important, but his belief will not be higher and Murray looks the man to beat at this moment.




Is there anyone that can come close to matching Serena Williams in the Women's game?: Serena Williams looked unplayable on the way to winning the Gold Medal in London and completing her own Golden Slam and she has now won all three tournaments she has competed in since being beaten in the French Open First Round.


No player is even close to the form shown by Williams in the last six weeks or so and her swatting of Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova, the current World Number 1 and 3, shows that the 'real' Number 1 remains the American.


Right now, I wouldn't back anyone else to take the US Open title in the Women's game and it is going to take a really special effort to beat Williams. She is serving wonderfully well, hitting powerful groundstrokes all over the court and has the swagger of someone who knows she is going to win.




Juan Martin Del Potro may be back: I love the way Juan Martin Del Potro plays the game of tennis and also the way he is very humble in victory and gracious in defeat.


In 2009, it looked like he was ready to make a real splash on the Main Tour as he reached the Semi Final at the French Open, won the US Open and was the Runner Up in the End of Year Championships... And then he was hit with a wrist injury.


He returned to full health in January 2011, but I have been holding off on believing he was truly back- even last month at Wimbledon I wasn't sure he was going to get to the Quarter Final and I began to worry that he may never return to the form he had displayed three years ago.


How happy am I to think I may just have been wrong to worry?! Del Potro finished with the Bronze Medal here but he pushed Roger Federer all the way in the Semi Final (and may just have taken out everything from the Swiss man in the process) and then beat Novak Djokovic to pick up the Medal.


He was serving exceptionally well in the last two matches, but it was the heaviness and accuracy of his groundstrokes that really impressed me. He also showed the lack of fear that has made him the only winner of a Grand Slam outside of the top three in the last 30 Grand Slam events and I think Del Potro could be the biggest danger at the US Open where he has history.


If the draw is right, Del Potro may just be able to repeat his feat from 2009, although the best of five format can be a lot trickier to negotiate.




Daily Picks Final: 10-10, + 0.32 Units (39 Units Staked)


Outright Picks: - 0.80 Units (12 Units Staked)


Overall Weekly Final: - 0.48 Units (51 Units Staked)


Season 2012: + 58.85 Units (705 Units Staked, 8.35% Yield)


Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Recap July 9-15

It wasn't a great week on the circuit for me, but more of that below.

It is unusual for the calender to be so busy in the week following a Grand Slam event, but the Olympic Games means a slight shift in emphasis this season and that has meant a number of tournaments are getting their events through before the players head to North America for the hard court season and preparation for the US Open.

Four years ago, the Olympics actually took place after the two Masters events in Cincinnati and Canada, but this year they are fitted in ahead of the two big tournaments and thus giving the players a little more normality in their play. The biggest issue is going to be the lack of time between the Olympic tournament and the Toronto Masters starting and the change from grass to hard courts in the space of a few days could see a lot more surprising results early in that tournament.

Anyway, here are a couple of things that have popped up from the events taking place this week.


Laura Robson's first Semi Final appearance: It was a slightly disappointing end to the tournament in Palermo for Laura Robson as she made too many errors in the loss, but the run to the Semi Final on a clay court does bode well for her development as far as I am concerned.


The only real fear for her at the moment is that she won't develop the tactical side of her game to go with all the power she has. That may make her a player like, for example, Lucie Safarova that is capable of blowing past some top players when everything is working for her, but too often fails to keep things going consistently enough to beat the rest regularly.


Now that is not to say that Safarova hasn't done well in her career already, but sometimes you have to look to achieve more especially with the talent that Robson does possess.


I am still sure that Robson is going to be the most successful British Female player for over twenty years, but I really hope the LTA and her coaches don't ruin what could be a real diamond.




Big week for Lleyton Hewitt, but the exception rather than the norm these days: Lleyton Hewitt is an under-rated player as far as I am concerned, with a lot of people likely to look back at his career and feel he won his Grand Slam titles in a small period where Pete Sampras was no longer the force of old and Roger Federer was yet to make his breakthrough on the Main Tour.


He was a real fighter back in his prime and could give a lot of players a lot of problems with his ability to turn defence into attack within a couple of shots. However, those days are long gone and I think we may look back at Newport as being a tournament where Hewitt put things together for a short while before blending into fields.


The tournament here was not exactly loaded with top-level talent either, especially the half in which Hewitt was placed, but I think it says a lot that he was still 40-1 to win the event... To me, that shows how far he is from his best.


The problem for Hewitt is that he seems to have lost a step on the court so no longer can play defence as he used to and he doesn't have the big shots to prevent falling into long rallies.


I am not sure how long the Australian has left on the circuit these days, but it was nice to see him have at least one more successful week.




Daily Picks Final: 3-8, - 6.08 Units (18 Units Staked)


Outright Picks Final: + 0.50 Units (3 Units Staked)


Week Final: - 5.58 Units (21 Units Staked)


Season 2012: + 67.54 Units (630 Units Staked, 10.7% Yield)


Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Wimbledon Recap 2012 (July 8th)

The third Grand Slam of the season has come and gone and we have crowned two more players as Champions this season. They are both familiar to winning here at SW19 as Roger Federer and Serena Williams became the latest winners of one of the big prizes this season following on from Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova.

Below, I have a few thoughts from the tournament over the last couple of weeks and then I will show the profit/loss from the tournament and the season as a whole.


Roger Federer is once again a Grand Slam Champion: The last time Roger Federer was lifting one of the big prizes in tennis was back at the Australian Open in 2010 and there would have been a lot of people that thought he was unlikely to win another Grand Slam tournament.


However, he has been working hard to get back to the pinnacle of the Men's game and that has seen him perform the most consistently of all the players since the US Open last year, although he still had not really come close to winning a Grand Slam with the likes of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal looking a little too strong for him.


Even at this tournament, it did seem that winning the tournament was likely to be beyond him, but his come from behind win over Julien Benneteau proved to be pivotal. Federer also saved his two best performances for the final two matches against Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray and that has also seen him reclaim the World Number 1 Ranking.


Federer is set to surpass the record that Pete Sampras had held for most weeks at World Number 1 and that should also leave him in good stead going into the Olympics and the US Open later this season.


It truly is a remarkable achievement to see Federer return to the Number 1 spot, particularly in this era where the depth in the Men's game is so strong and I do think it strengthens his claims to go down as the 'Greatest Player in History'. A lot of people would have ruled him out ever winning another Grand Slam, let alone getting back to Number 1, but it is the mark of the man that he has managed to do so.


I have always thought it would be tough for Federer to go down as the 'Greatest' if Rafa Nadal can reach, say 15 Grand Slams, particularly with the head to head record between the two players, but if Federer can add another couple of Slams to his record, it will be tough to surpass him.


I remember hearing Federer speak about getting to 20 Grand Slams before he retires and you wouldn't want to bet against him considering the desire and belief he has shown to get back to World Number 1... Do I think he will get to 20? I find that tough to believe with Federer reaching 31 years old next month and with the likes of Djokovic and Nadal around.




Is Federer now the favourite to win the Gold medal at the Olympics?: I think the fact the Olympics are going to be played on grass was always going to help Federer more than it hurt him, but I still think Rafael Nadal is the player that could cause problems and should still be the man to beat, along with Novak Djokovic, when it comes to the Gold Medal.


The best news about reaching World Number 1 for Federer is that he doesn't necessarily have to beat both Nadal and Djokovic, as he would have had to at this tournament if the Spaniard had not been beaten early, but the draw is still very important to his chances.


The grass courts are probably the only courts where Federer is less vulnerable to the big hitters, but the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych (who also beat Federer at the Olympics in Athens in 2004) would still think they have a chance of knocking him off, especially in a best of three sets match.


As I said, the draw is very important to decide who should be the favourite, but I still think the two Men immediately below him in the Rankings should be leading the markets.




How will Andy Murray be received by the public following his loss: First things first, I think Andy Murray should be given a lot of credit for reaching the Wimbledon Final and his performance should not be criticised as he really did give his all and came up a little short.


There was a moment in the second set when he missed a couple of balls that he had been dealing with previously and there were some comparisons with his loss to Rafael Nadal in the Semi Final at Wimbledon last year when he had an easy forehand to go a set and a break up on the Spaniard.


While there can't be anything disparaging to be said about Murray's performance, I think the genuine disappointment and tears at the post-match interview on the court will have adhered him to the millions that were watching on TV and I think he will have more sympathy and fans from that.


Murray apologised for Federer as he felt it may have taken away from the Swiss man's victory, but it did show a side of him that many would not have seen before and I think that can only be a good thing for a player that doesn't look the happiest on the court.




Why do so many think Murray does not deserve the support of the home fans?: I have heard from a few people that they wouldn't be backing Andy Murray after what he said about the England team back in 2006.


If you don't know, all Murray said was that he was supporting 'anyone but England' in the football World Cup, but it was a tongue-in-cheek comment that seems to have riled up a lot of English people.


I heard many say they don't like him because of those comments, but I am unashamedly a Murray fan- yes, he can look a little miserable at time, but he seems to have a dry sense of humour that I appreciate and I think he is actually a lot easier to get on with off the court than on it.


Personally, I have never seen the need to 'support' a person based on their nationality when it comes to individual sports as they are doing things for themselves first and foremost- so if someone says they don't like Murray because he looks a miserable bastard, fair enough... But to not like him for a comment made as a teenager looks a little silly as far as I am concerned, especially as I don't think anyone would want to be judged by what they said as teenagers I'm sure.




People should talk about a 'top three' not a 'top four': I have already said I like Andy Murray so I hope this is not read as being too critical of him, but I do think the use of 'big four' should be put on the back-burner by those in the media from now on and until Murray wins a Grand Slam.


The top three players look a level above Murray at the moment and I think there is actually a smaller gap between him and David Ferrer at Number 5 than there is between Murray and Rafa Nadal at Number 3.


We have to appreciate all the success Murray has had already in his career, but I just think it is doing the Djokovic, Federer and Nadal's of this World a disservice by not placing them head and shoulders above the rest in the Men's field.


IF Murray can win a Grand Slam, he would at least be in the same kind of conversation as the three players above him, especially as it could lead to further success at Slam level, but this term 'big four' has to be retired until Murray does win one.




Serena Williams is back on her throne: All the talk pre-Wimbledon was about the huge achievements that Maria Sharapova had made by winning just her fourth Grand Slam, albeit completing a career Grand Slam, but the real Queen of Women's tennis can now say she is back on her throne after winning the title here.


Serena Williams has managed to beat a life-threatening illness and won her first Grand Slam since winning Wimbledon in July 2010, but that win means she has more Wimbledon titles than Sharapova has Grand Slams- that should put it into perspective what kind of achievements Sharapova has and how much they are blown out of proportion compared to her peer in Williams.


It was important for Williams to win this title having fallen far short at the Australian and French Opens this season and also being surprised by Sam Stosur in the Final of the US Open last year.


The win will give Serena the belief that she can go on and really stamp her place in the history of the Women's game with further Grand Slam success and I think there is a vacuum in the Women's tour at the moment to suggest she can go on and dominate.


I think Serena will be the favourite to win the Olympic Gold Medal and the US Open and I wouldn't want to bet against her right now with the confidence likely to have reached new heights.




Wimbledon is the latest in successful Grand Slam events: Wimbledon is the latest tournament where the outright picks have been very successful as I once again managed to get both the Men's and Women's Champion in the staking plan.


That means I have been successful in identifying the Winner of both the Men's and Women's events at all three Grand Slams so far.


Anyone who reads the blog with any regularity will know I don't like talking about my successes any more than the failures, but this is one thing I am extremely happy with.




Wimbledon Daily Picks Final: 21-17, + 8.88 Units (72 Units Staked)


Wimbledon Outright Picks Final: + 12.50 Units (9 Units Staked)


Wimbledon 2012 Final: + 21.38 Units (81 Units Staked)


Season 2012 Update: + 73.12 Units (609 Units Staked, 12.01% Yield)


Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Recap June 18-24

The final grass court tournaments before Wimbledon have been completed and now it is all eyes on the third Grand Slam of the season.

I will have a full preview of the tournament out shortly, but I think it is one of the best draws  in the Men's draw that I have seen for some time with lots of intriguing matches coming up and plenty of threats for the big four players to be worrying about in the coming two weeks. Let's hope for some great weather and great tennis moving forward.

It wasn't a good week at all for the picks as players either tanked at the wrong time, or were just not capable of producing what I expected on the day... Suffice to say it is the worst week I had this season, but I would rather get that out of the way now and hope for a strong Wimbledon than have a terrible Grand Slam.


What does Andy Roddick's win at Eastbourne mean? I have read in a few places that people are once again considering the American as a credible outsider that could win Wimbledon because he won the event at Eastbourne, but anyone who saw him play will know Andy Roddick is far removed from the player that last reached the Final at SW19 back in 2009.


These wins were actually the first he had since March, and I think the fact he dropped a set against Fabio Fognini while not being as effective behind serve suggests he will not go too far at Wimbledon. His draw is not the kindest as I think he is in the toughest Quarter and I will be more than a little surprised if he is still around come the middle of the second week.


It was a good win for his confidence, but Roddick is not the same player he was and I don't put too much faith into what he managed to achieve at Eastbourne.


How much should someone take into account the form at exhibition tournaments? This has really come about due to the two defeats suffered by Andy Murray at the exhibition event held at Stoke Park in Buckinghamshire over the last week, but I don't think it is as big an issue as some would like to believe.


How many readers know there are big exhibition tournaments before the Australian Open and the French Open too? How many would be surprised that the likes of Roger Federer have played in such events and actually performed better at the Grand Slam event they are preparing for?


That's all this is- it is players trying out a couple of things and just getting the feel of the grass underneath their feet as they get ready to start their Wimbledon challenge.


Those two defeats to Janko Tipsarevic and Novak Djokovic would not worry me in the slightest- the draw Murray has received at Wimbledon is a different matter though!


The Boodles exhibition tournament: I was fortunate enough to attend The Boodles event held at Stoke Park this year and it truly was an enjoyable event and one that I will definitely be adding to my calender in the coming years.


Having been to Queens for many years now, I wasn't sure there was a venue where we could get easier access to the top players in the game, but that was the case at Stoke Park where the players are happy to walk through public access areas and also very happy to pose for a photo and sign an autograph.


The court itself is in a very intimate setting and it is clearly enjoyable for the tennis players too who do have some fun (another reason I wouldn't be overly concerned by a couple of defeats for Andy Murray).


If you ever get a chance, I would recommend attending highly!




Weekly Final: - 10 Units (18 Units Staked)


Season 2012 Update: + 51.74 Units (528 Units Staked, 9.80% yield)


Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Recap (June 11-17)

Another week has gone by on the Tour and we are now just seven days from the start of the third Grand Slam of the season at Wimbledon. That means we have the last of the grass court events starting this week before Wimbledon and most of the top players will be playing exhibition events rather than proper tournaments.

It was a controversial end to the tournament at Queens this week and where else can I start?!


David Nalbandian is disqualified in the Final at Queens: I haven't seen anything like what happened on Sunday as David Nalbandian was forced to default the Final at Queens even though he was leading 1-0 in sets and was a break down in the second set.


I am sure most of you would have seen the incident when Nalbandian kicked the sponsors panel that shattered and ended up cutting a line judge's leg- it was a really unfortunate incident, but I can't excuse it and there could really have only been one way that match was going to go as soon as he did what he did.


I do think it was out of order to get Nalbandian to have an immediate interview on court where the questions were too much when someone is still in an emotional state. All they had to do was to get Nalbandian to apologise and move on rather than pushing for him to answer questions- how many of us would be in a position to speak at such an emotional juncture?


I am glad to see that Nalbandian has since released a couple of statements showing how apologetic he is about the whole situation, while he was the same in the press interview afterwards when he was a little calmer.


It is already a shame that Nalbandian will lose his prize money and his ranking points from the event, points that would have seen him likely seeded for Wimbledon.


I don't agree with the numpties who are 'demanding' that he serves a suspension as I think the fact is he has come to Queens and basically played while losing money all week with no prize money or ranking points gained- that is enough punishment, as well as the shame in losing a Final in the manner he did, so the idea that he should be suspended is beyond laughable.


The kick was a mistake and he didn't intend to hit the line judge, so I think the punishment is already complete.


I was fortunate enough to meet Nalbandian this week and have a quick chat with him- he was friendly, happy to sign my ticket and also to have a photo taken and all this was around an hour before he was due on court so I wasn't disappointed in meeting my favourite player of the last ten years- it's a shame that he couldn't get his name on the winners board, but I hope he does come back in the coming years.


Least now I won't hear the numerous people asking who is at the event(!)




The difference in Roger Federer's and Rafael Nadal's defeats at Halle: I have said for some time that I don't think Roger Federer is at 100% with his health and I expect he will take the time off between Wimbledon and the Olympic games. His defeat in the Final at Halle was disappointing and he has looked a little jaded at times during the week.


I find it very hard to imagine that he can go to Wimbledon and have a real chance of winning the tournament with the way he has been playing since winning in Madrid- he struggled to put away lesser opponents at the French Open and he just hasn't looked right to me in using the eye test.


There will be some out there that are wondering why I have these concerns about Federer and not the same thing when it comes to Rafael Nadal and the answer is pretty simple- Nadal has never really had a strong pedigree in the tournament between the French Open and Wimbledon, unlike Federer.


Nadal has won the tournament at Queens, but 4 of his 5 appearances at that tournament has seen him go out at the Quarter Final stage and he has reached the Final at Wimbledon or won that event soon after.


All Nadal considers at this stage is to get a bit of practice on the grass and he has done that and I have no doubt he will be ready for Wimbledon. The draw will still be important to see whether he can get to the Final and win the event, but that will be analysed at the end of the coming week.




Should we read anything into all the seeds falling at Queens?: It was a strange tournament all around at Queens, culminating in the David Nalbandian situation, but the question is what to read into all the top seeds falling so quickly at the tournament.


Andy Murray, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Andy Roddick and Janko Tipsarevic were all early losers, but I don't think we should read anything into it... Well nothing more than it just being one of those tournaments where it happens from time to time.


Murray and Tipsarevic will be going on to The Boodles this week to play some exhibition matches to get up to speed on the grass, while Andy Roddick is playing down in Eastbourne although he has been given a tough draw against Sam Querrey, but the biggest news may be about Tsonga.




Will Jo-Wilfried Tsonga make it to Wimbledon?: This was the biggest news (before the David Nalbandian situation) coming out of Queens as far as I was concerned as the Frenchman has potentially broken a finger and could be forced to miss Wimbledon.


This will be a big shame for the event, especially after Tsonga's performance at the French Open which had seemed to have filled him with confidence for the grass court season.


Outside of the top four players in the World, I thought Tsonga had the best chance to really have an impact at Wimbledon so I am looking forward to hearing what has happened to his finger and whether he is going to be missing.


The suggestions are that he will be fine and will be in the field next Monday, but I think I will keep an eye on him and see if he takes part in any exhibition matches.


If fully fit and ready to go, Tsonga could really make people sit up and take notice in the coming weeks with Wimbledon and the Olympic games both taking place on the grass he loves playing on.




Weekly Final: + 3.76 Units (18 Units Staked)


Season 2012 Update: + 61.74 Units (510 Units Staked, 12.11% Yield)


Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Recap (French Open)

The second Grand Slam of 2012 is over with Maria Sharapova and Rafael Nadal winning the two events and it won't be long until the third Major starts at Wimbledon towards the end of the month.

While the daily picks only produced a small profit by the end of the tournament, catching both winners in the outright markets have really upped the profits at the end of the tournament. I only received a bonus by picking the Men's Champion to lose less than 3 sets at the tournament and Rafael Nadal's serene progress through the draw has also brought that pick in.

Below are a few thoughts from the event and I will also update the profit/loss from the French Open and the overall season results.


Putting Maria Sharapova's Grand Slam in perspective: All of the hype, particularly on the British channels, about Maria Sharapova's completing the career Grand Slam is absolutely ridiculous if you ask me.


It is a great achievement, there is no doubt about that, but it seriously needs to be put into perspective compared to some of her peers including the Williams sisters. First things first, the surfaces no longer have the differences that they used to and that makes it easier for players to make the adjustments when moving from the hard to the clay and then to the grass courts, well at least easier than they used to.


Secondly, this is only the fourth Major that Sharapova has now won and that is far short of the expectations people had when she won Wimbledon at 17. Compare that to players like Justine Henin (7 Grand Slams), Venus Williams (7 Grand Slams) and Serena Williams (13 Grand Slams) and you see there is plenty of room for the Russian before she can be considered alongside the greats of yesteryear.


I also wasn't impressed with some of the commentators comparing Sharapova's achievement to Serena Williams when she won the 'Serena Slam'... The BIG difference is Serena won all 4 Majors consecutively, not over the space of 8 years and that has to be stated- of course, I would revise this whole thing if Sharapova goes on and wins Wimbledon, the Olympics and the US Open and then we could start speaking about this achievement at the same level as Serena's.




Rafael Nadal is the 'King of Clay': Rafael Nadal completed his seventh win at the French Open and he remains the ultimate player on the surface and I think he has underlined his position as the best player to have played on the dirt in the history of the game.


However, he can consider himself a touch fortunate that the match was called off when it was on Sunday evening as he was completely on the ropes despite being up 2-1 in sets... That break gave him the chance to find his place mentally and allowed him to get back to what he wanted to do.


I still think he needed to finish the match in four sets, something he did do in the end, as I would have favoured Novak Djokovic heavily if it had gone the distance. It was a shame that he couldn't have forced a tie-break to prolong the drama, while a double-fault was the most disappointing ending to the Final.


However, there was enough in the match to suggest that Djokovic should be the favourite to win the event at Wimbledon depending on the draw of course.




Is Roger Federer suffering with some sort of injury: I have said during the French Open that Roger Federer has not looked himself and he did mention that he had a niggle before the event in Rome... My question would be how much is actually suffering?


Federer is not the kind of player that will openly say what is bothering him, but it will be interesting to see how he goes at Halle before making any judgements on how he will perform at Wimbledon.


He is still one of the top players on the grass and he is going to be a real threat if he is fit, but I want to see him remove my doubts before he is under consideration to possibly win Wimbledon.




Jo-Wilfried Tsonga could be a real dark horse at Wimbledon: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga surprised many, including me, with his run to the French Open Quarter Finals and he was so close to beating Novak Djokovic that I think the Frenchman could be a real threat at Wimbledon if he has not allowed that defeat to mentally linger.


Tsonga proved last year when he beat Roger Federer in the Quarter Final at Wimbledon that he can really beat the big players on this surface and I think he could take advantage if he gets a decent draw.


His mental resolve will be tested at Queens this week and it will give me an insight into how he is feeling. I also hope Tsonga does not go to Eastbourne as he did last season and instead takes the week off to get ready for Wimbledon and make sure his batteries are recharged... If he does that, I think Tsonga is ready for a deep run.






French Open Daily Picks: 22-23, + 3.36 Units (75 Units Staked)


French Open Outright Picks: + 18.11 Units (14 Units Staked)


French Open 2012: + 21.47 Units (89 Units Staked)




Season 2012 Update: + 57.98 Units (492 Units Staked, 11.78% Yield)

Tennis Recap (May 13-20, Rome)

It was a horrible week in terms of picking daily winners, but the outright market proved very profitable with both Maria Sharapova and Rafael Nadal winning the Women's and Men's events respectively.

This is the last real important tournament before the French Open which begins next Monday, although we do have events in France and Germany this week. The problem with those events is the motivation of the top seeded players that may want to reserve some gas for the first week of the Grand Slam next week.

Anyway, below is just a few thoughts from the Rome event that was concluded today:


Rafael Nadal back up to World Number 2: I think Roger Federer would have been secretly hoping that Novak Djokovic could have won this event as soon as he was beaten in the Semi Finals to the Serbian.


Rafael Nadal's win in Rome means they have moved up to World Number 2 and that means, once again, that Roger Federer is likely going to have to beat the two best players in the World if he wants to win the French Open for a second time.


By moving up to Number 2, Federer can at least think he has a 50-50 chance of avoiding Rafael Nadal in his draw and know he could take his chances if Nadal and Djokovic were involved in an epic Semi Final, and those little things can make the difference when winning a Grand Slam or not.


It looks unlikely that Federer can get the Number 2 position back before Wimbledon, something I think he was looking for, unless there is a serious surprise at Roland Garros.




Andy Murray's back injury: Andy Murray exited the tournament in Rome with little fuss against Richard Gasquet and subsequently told the journalists at his press conference that he is suffering with a back injury that has been niggling him since December.


This doesn't bode well for him in an important year with the French Open, Wimbledon and the Olympics all coming up in quick succession and the US Open to follow. Murray has always made the first few rounds of a Grand Slam event much more difficult than they need to be and this back injury is only going to hinder his chances even more if he is  as uncomfortable as he suggested.


He will always need a nice draw, a bit of luck and the nerve at crucial times if he is going to win a Grand Slam, but an injury is not going to help his cause and I just can't see a breakthrough coming for him this season.




I've changed my mind, Serena Williams is the player to beat at Roland Garros: Last week, I said that Serena Williams was a little short as the favourite to win in Paris this season as the conditions in Madrid helped her win that tournament.


However, she looked imperious this week in Rome and was cruising through her matches and was only prevented from winning the tournament because she had to pull out with an injury. Williams has since said it was a precautionary pull-out and she expects to be fully ready for Paris.


With Victoria Azarenka's participation in Paris in doubt, the only player I would even consider backing to beat Serena Williams is Maria Sharapova, but if the American gets the right kind of draw, I can't look beyond her.


Williams has looked motivated and focused on what has been her worst surface to play on... Pencil her name in for Wimbledon if she stays healthy, especially with the form she has shown in the last month.




The Men's event is not much more open than the Women's: You get these big articles ahead of the Grand Slams that seems to list up to 8 Men that can possibly win the event and, while I don't agree it ever gets to that many, you can understand the excitement about these Slams.


The French Open doesn't exactly inspire me the same way to be honest as I can't look beyond the top two players in the World as to who will win this event.


The likes of Roger Federer, Juan Martin Del Potro, Tomas Berdych and Andy Murray could possibly throw a spanner in the works, but I would almost certainly think the player they trouble is Novak Djokovic rather than Rafael Nadal.


I would heavily favour Nadal against any of the four players listed on a clay court, and I think he has proven that he has the better of Djokovic on the surface after reversing his surprise losses to the Serbian last season including here at Rome.


One year ago, Nadal was a short odds against shot to win the French Open, but there is no chance of getting anything like that this year. Already, I do favour Nadal to take this tournament unless he gets a gruesome draw and even then I would just hope that his price comes out rather than expecting him to lose.




Weekly Update: 9-12, - 6.32 Units (41 Units Staked)
Outright Update: 2-1, + 8.75 Units (8 Units Staked)


Season Update: + 36.51 Units (403 Units Staked, 9.06% Yield)


Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Recap May 6-13 (Madrid)

It wasn't a great week in Madrid for tennis fans as too many players were not happy about being here and that meant that there were some poor performances and some really surprising results.

I don't think I can remember the last time that both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal had exited a Masters event before the Semi Finals, and both players left with their future participation at the event very much in doubt.

I'll put down a few thoughts from the event below and also update the season profit and loss. I will then have a separate thread with the outright picks from the Rome Masters, which actually began earlier today, and daily pick threads will start from tomorrow...


Roger Federer has reached World Number 2: Over the last 6-8 months, Roger Federer has definitely got back to something like his best and I am not surprised in the slightest that he has overtaken Rafael Nadal in the Rankings and moved back to the World Number 2 position. For the first time in many years, Federer has made it no secret of his desire to return to the Number 1 position when this season began and he is well on the way to getting somewhere near that as Novak Djokovic has plenty more points to defend than the Swiss man.


A couple of months ago, I also made it a point to suggest the move back into the top 2 in the World Rankings may actually aid Federer's chances of winning another Grand Slam as he is could, depending on the draw of course, no longer need to beat BOTH  Rafael Nadal and Djokovic to do so. At the end of the day, in a gruelling Grand Slam event, it is those small differences that can make all the difference.


Now I am not sure when the French Open decides on their seeds but I do know that unlike Wimbledon, they are based solely on the Rankings a player has rather than looking at past results as Wimbledon does. My only question is whether the seedings are taken from Rankings in this week or the previous week?


Federer only reached the Third Round at the Rome Masters last season, so I expect he will likely further increase his lead over Nadal in the Number 3 position and perhaps close further on Djokovic as the Number 1...




Serena Williams may still not be the player to beat at Roland Garros: I have tremendous respect for Serena Williams who I regularly describe as the best player in the World, but I am not jumping on the bandwagon just yet that she is the favourite to win at Roland Garros.


The bottom line is she has struggled at that event throughout her career, only winning it once, and she regularly has to beat the fans as well as her opponent and that has never really sat well with her.


Williams did record a thumping win over Victoria Azarenka, the World Number 1 and the most in-form player in 2012, but the conditions in Madrid favour the American's game so much and are not replicated in Paris. The altitude makes the ball run faster, while the courts have always been quicker than other clay courts so I think it is too soon for people to label Williams as the favourite.


Next week the Tour moves to Rome and I will be interested to see how she performs there (although she may make my outright plan once I look at her draw).




Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic whinging: Normally I would say that the players are being bad losers in their criticisms of the courts in Madrid, but you can't really say too much when the organisers themselves admit that they are slippery and they have made mistakes in the way they have laid the surface.


The problem here seems to be that the courts have been laid too late, meaning there was nothing that could be done once the organisers realised that they were not as playable as they had been making out in the lead up to the event.


I would love to see more contrasts in the courts around the World rather than the way they are at the moment with similar speeds and little variation in the surfaces... However, I don't think the courts in Madrid came under that category, but rather were a little dangerous with players struggling with footing and turning.


With the top two players (in terms of Ranking coming into the event) essentially saying they will boycott this tournament in the future until they return to the red clay, I think Madrid's hand may well be forced for the 2013 event.




Weekly Update: 7-6, + 1.60 Units (26 Units Staked)


Season Update: + 34.08 Units (354 Units Staked, 9.63% yield)


Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Weekly Recap (Monte Carlo)

I mentioned at one point last week that the ATP Masters Event at Monte Carlo seemed to lack the feel of one of the bigger events on the calender, feeling more like an ATP 250 tournament than anything else. I truly believe the tournament loses a lot of credibility with it being the only Masters Event which is not compulsory.


Rafael Nadal still the one to beat on a clay court: Rafael Nadal won his 8th consecutive title at Monte Carlo and I think this one will be the most important for a couple of reasons.


The first is the fact that he beat Novak Djokovic in the Final, something he had failed to do since before the 2011 season. That will have finally given the Spaniard some confidence back after losing so many important matches to Djokovic over the last 15 months and will put him in good stead for the rest of the clay court season.


The second reason is the fact that he should now have the confidence in the knee issues that had forced his early retirement at the Masters Event in Miami, an injury Nadal admitted was still concerning him ahead of this one in Monte Carlo. It is clear he is much happier with the state of his body as he gets back on a clay court as it is much less demanding on his knees, and it is no surprise that he is going back to Barcelona in the coming week.




Ivan Ljubicic's retirement: Ivan Ljubicic became another big name tennis player from the last ten years that has called time on his career just a few short weeks after Fernando Gonzalez did the same in Miami.

Ivan Ljubicic was an under-rated player in his time, although his lack of success at Grand Slam level will likely have disappointed him.


Ljubicic did reach a high of World Number 3 in his career, a real achievement on its own, and that year coincided with his best efforts in a Grand Slam tournament as he reached the Quarter Final in Australian and the Semi Final at the French Open, but failure to reach further than the Fourth Round in any other Grand Slam tournament is a surprise considering his all around game.


The Croatian was highly respected by the other players on the Tour and he seems to be well-liked so I only hope he enjoys his post-playing career.




On another note, it was a tough week to be picking the matches considering the lack of consistency in the performances as a lot of the players were playing their first clay court tournament of the season.


Weekly Update: 4-4, + 2.44 Units (13 Units Staked)


Outright Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked)


Season 2012 Update: + 29.79 Units (313 Units Staked, 9.51% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Weekly Recap (Indian Wells and Miami)

I decided to recap the two big events in North America together as the time between them was not sufficient enough to do them individually, but there have been some good stories that have come out of the events.

That also concluded the early hard court season and we will be moving onto the clay courts after the Davis Cup ties are played later this week.

Roger Federer continues to close the gap on the top two in the Rankings: Roger Federer has been the most in-form Men's tennis player since the US Open last September and he continued his strong form at Indian Wells which he won for the fourth time.


He might have exited in Miami a little sooner than expected, but he is now just 900 points behind Rafael Nadal in the Rankings. It will be interesting to see how Federer does during this clay court season and what events he will take part in.


The Swiss star reached the Semi Final in Madrid last season, but had an early exit in Rome, while he has already decided not to take part at Monte Carlo this season.


He also has committed to Halle this season during the grass court season so there is a real chance he could be in the World's top 2 by Wimbledon, although he does have a number of points to defend at the French Open.




Victoria Azarenka's defeat at Miami highlights Novak Djokovic's achievement from 2011: Victoria Azarenka won the event at Indian Wells to extend her winning start to the season, but she was beaten at the Quarter Final stage at Miami and that highlights the achievements of Novak Djokovic last season.


I don't think too many people would argue against the Men's game being a lot deeper than the Women's so for Djokovic to go unbeaten until the Semi Final of the French Open was a remarkable achievement.


Victoria Azarenka is still the one to beat in the Women's game this season, but she did prove that the layers were taking no chances by keeping her prices so short in the outright markets, something that did hurt them during Djokovic's run last season.




Andy Murray's biggest problem in winning a Grand Slam: I really do rate Andy Murray as a player, but I think he is more than a little unfortunate to be an era where he would have to beat at least two of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic if he is to win a Grand Slam that he desires so much.


He seems to put things together for a couple of sets, but kind of mentally checks out when things get on top of him in a set and that is not going to work against the very best players in the World.


I still think he has a good chance at either Wimbledon or the US Open to win the tournament as long as he gets the right kind of draw. He may just need a little bit of luck that was afforded to Roger Federer in 2009 when he won the French Open as Rafael Nadal was knocked out early while suffering from a knee injury.


The next couple of months will be important for Murray as he plays on his least favourite surface and a chance to get some confidence before the grass court season and, later, the hard court season begins.




Andy Roddick's win over Roger Federer: A lot of people will see this as a turning point for Andy Roddick this season, but I wouldn't go too far as Federer was clearly exhausted from a long run of matches.


It was a special win for Andy Roddick, but it can't be forgotten that he was completely dismantled by Juan Monaco and now he is coming into the hardest part of the season for the American. He did move up to 29 in the World Rankings, and he will have a chance to improve that Ranking in time for Wimbledon as he only played two clay court tournaments last season and was beaten in the First Round in both.


Roddick has said he feels something good coming along, but it sounds like the same things Michael Owen of Manchester United continues to believe, and I am not sure there is that much left in the tank while there are plenty of players that will feel they are more than capable of beating Roddick.


I still think he could be a danger on grass with his experience, but the next two months are going to be tough for him for sure.




Maria Sharapova cannot get over the hurdle: You don't want to go overboard, but Maria Sharapova must be feeling the pressure as she lost her third Final of the season, this time to Agnieska Radwanska, and has finished as the Runner Up at Indian Wells and Miami as well as at the Australian Open.


She has not won a tournament since Cincinnati last August and she is now moving on to the clay courts, a surface she has made it clear is not her favourite in the past.


Sharapova was a little disappointing in both Finals recently, as well as in Australia, and I don't know how much of that is down to the expectations she is putting on herself. She will need to get over this hump sooner rather than later I feel, as these things can manifest into something far larger if a player is not careful.




Indian Wells: - 2.21 Units (42 Units Staked)


Miami: + 7.91 Units (38 Units Staked)


2012 Season Update: + 29.35 Units (298 Units Staked, + 7.93% Yield)
2011 Season: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Weekly Recap (February 26-March 4)

It was a good week for the picks after a couple of largely disappointing ones and that has pushed the profit back up to the where it was before those two weeks of losses.

It was a nice way to get up and running again after what seemed like a couple of tough weeks when things could have been so different with a little bit of luck. Now we get to have a few days off before the tournament at Indian Wells is due to commence.

The Main Draw for both the Men's and Women's tournaments are due out on Tuesday evening for the first big events outside of the Grand Slams. It also means the likes of Victoria Azarenka, Rafael Nadal, Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams (in Miami at least as the Williams sisters do not go to Indian Wells after suffering racial taunts there earlier in their careers) will all be returning to action after having a recent break.

One player who will be coming into the events in North America with a huge amount of confidence has to be Roger Federer who has won back to back ATP 500 Events and will surely feel he can get a little closer to the top two players in the Men's game. Another in line for a big month is Andy Murray who looked good in Dubai and has little to defend here from last season when he had a poor reaction to his Australian Open Final defeat to Novak Djokovic.

David Ferrer will also be a tough test for anyone following back to back to wins at the clay court events in Argentina and Mexico as the Spaniard continues to punch above his weight. Ferrer remains a truly solid role model for what hard work can get you as he has got the best, and perhaps more, out of the talent he was blessed with.

Weekly Recap: 11-6, + 9.6 Units (34 Units Staked)


Season 2012: + 23.65 Units (218 Units Staked, + 10.84% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units