What... A... Week(!)
I am completely done with this week and it is one that I don't want to go through again where it felt like I had literally picked matches that had players going out of their way to irritate me. I am not one of these people that think tennis players are machines so I obviously won't be venting my disgust to any of the players personally because I am not an idiot and have learned to take the rough with the smooth.
Unfortunately it has been incredibly rough this week as I have had virtually no fortune at all which has been highlighted by some of the ways the picks have fallen through and I think it is better to call it a day for the week.
Looking back at some of the results this week, I really wish I had Biff's Sports Almanac from Back to the Future because that is the only way I would believe what I was seeing. Players constantly getting into a position to win matches and somehow throwing them away and all the statistics pointing to the picks being correct, but simply not falling my way.
Making picks while completely 'pissed off', pardon my French, is simply not smart and I haven't lost faith that matches I picked were wrong considering how strong the season had been.
Don't be foolish in thinking that I don't appreciate there have been some bad picks too... The picks on Lukas Rosol and Federico Delbonis had alarm bells attached prior to being made and I should have paid more attention those.
But let me break down some of the other results and I think it will be clear that there has been almost nothing going my way.
It all began on Monday as the first pick of the week fell through the crack- I had backed Fernando Verdasco who somehow lost the first set despite having at least one break point in all but one Nicolas Almagro service game. He then won the second set easily enough and was serving to get into a final set tie-break only to then hand Almagro a break and winning the match.
Almagro only had break points in four games but broke three times, while Verdasco had break points in double the games and broke just three times himself. If that match went into a tie-breaker, Verdasco would have covered and thus set the tone for the rest of the week.
Later that day Matthew Ebden won the first set in his match 61, but then fell apart to lose and fail to cover a small number of games himself.
Moving on to Wednesday, Andrey Rublev became the third player I had picked this week that would have brought in a winner if he had won a final set in his match, but was beaten.
That had come after Thomaz Bellucci won more than half of the points on his opponent's serve but failed to covert a 0-40 situation and was broken in both the games he gave up break points in the match to miss the cover by a single game. On another day he wins 62, 62 but another day won't work for me this week.
So Thursday couldn't have that kind of misfortune could it? Well Julia Goerges became the latest player to lose a final set after dominating her match in the first two sets and failing to get the job done when she should have.
Alize Cornet won the first set of her match 62, but fell apart like so many others in another final set defeat and Martin Klizan was a set up in both sets but was still beaten in straight sets.
Jerzy Janowicz might have lost easily on paper, but he had had break points in every one of Steve Darcis' first three service games and couldn't convert which quickly saw him fall apart by the end of the match.
There are at least six matches there that could have easily gone my way with even a slight bounce of the ball falling for the players I had picked at the big moments. That might have actually made this a winning week rather than an embarrassing one that has crushed the season stats in three days.
The picks are still up, but it has been a devastating blow and I would much rather make a few tweaks and leave the tennis until the next set of tournaments. This is simply an ugly week where nothing is going to go right and I don't want any more part of it truth be told!
Some times it is better to say the battle is lost but try and win the war and that is what a long season on the tennis Tour is. You have some bad weeks, but trying to avoid these horrific weeks can be difficult when it really rolls on you.
I would have much rather have seen the picks get nowhere near winning at times because then you can make adjustments as to how they have been made- however, it is much more difficult to be critical of the methods to making picks when they have been as close as those have that I described above where the matches went almost exactly as anticipated except for the players putting the period on the sentence.
So that will be it for the week as I will update the season statistics when making my next set of picks as the new tournaments begin on Monday. I feel disappointed for the readers this week who might have followed and had a rough week of their own, but I think the chance to refresh and start again on Monday is the best policy when the week has been as 'cursed' as this one has.
Hopefully a few days off will just reset whatever has gone wrong this week and next week is a much stronger return.
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Showing posts with label Bogota. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bogota. Show all posts
Thursday, 23 July 2015
Tuesday, 21 July 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (July 21st)
The opening day of the new tournaments on the tennis Tour generally does see few main draw matches and it was no surprise that the layers didn't catch up by releasing all of the markets. I had a couple of matches that appealed, but nothing was strong enough to have me make my pick and the decision was made to allow Monday to pass without any picks.
On Tuesday, the five tournaments played this week have got a load of First Round matches scheduled to take the court, although at least three of the five events are going to be affected by rain through much of the week.
With the amount of matches that are going to be played on Tuesday, it is no surprise that I do have some picks from this day, although any from the event in Bogota will be made at lunchtime on Tuesday once the layers have caught up with all the qualifiers who are in action in the main draw.
Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: Between 2005 and 2012, Bastad was a tournament dominated by Spanish players as 6 of the 8 titles in that time ended up going to a player from that nation. It is a tournament that Nicolas Almagro has loved to play at in the past having won the title here and also reached two other Finals, while he was a Quarter Finalist two years ago before losing to his First Round opponent in 2015 in Fernando Verdasco.
Verdasco hasn't added his name to a list of Spaniard's who have won the title in Bastad, but he has reached at least the Quarter Final on five straight appearances here with his best effort being a Final appearance two years ago. The winner of this First Round match will certainly feel they can go all the way this time with the way the draw shaped up, but I am guessing neither Verdasco nor Almagro are overly happy with the match this early in the tournament.
Previous matches have been tight, but it is Verdasco who has had the slight edge, but it has been much more than an edge on the clay courts which might surprise. For all of the success Almagro has had on his favourite surface, he is just 3-8 against Verdasco on clay even though he won their most recent meeting on the surface.
It is no surprise that Verdasco had the better grass court season of the two players, but neither pulled up too many trees when it came to the clay court earlier this season. I just think there is a mental issue for Almagro when he plays some of his compatriots like Verdasco who he perhaps feels has a better talent than himself.
A lot of that is between the ears as Almagro was considered one of the top prospects in Spanish tennis and the player that Toni Nadal highlighted as a big threat to Rafael as they were growing up. For all his talent, Almagro never seems far away from a mental meltdown and I think someone like Verdasco can frustrate him through his sheer power on the court. This should be a tight First Round match, but Verdasco has been playing the more consistent tennis of late and I expect him to come through this big opening test.
Lukas Rosol - 3.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: Getting married and settling down with a family has worked wonders for the likes of Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray over the last twelve months. Lukas Rosol was the latest tennis player to join that club and he will be hoping that married life works out as well for him as it has for others on the Tour.
He gets an early test of how it will suit him in Umag as Rosol plays his First Round match with an improving Damir Dzumhur but a player who is likely to be restricted by physical limitations. Talent can take a player so far, but Dzumhur has to find the consistency from the baseline to really move up the World Rankings as he doesn't have the same power as some of the others on the Tour, nor the serve that can provide a lot of cheap points.
That isn't something that Rosol usually needs to worry about, although I still am critical of his game as he doesn't make the best use out of his weapons. There is a lot of low percentage shots taken on by Rosol who hopes he can blast opponents off the court when sometimes it is better to take a slight step back and play the shots that are there rather than forcing the issue too far.
Rosol has appreciated the clay courts the most in his career so far, even if his biggest win came on the grass against Rafael Nadal, and I think he will be too strong for Dzumhur. Dealing with the power Rosol has at his disposal is going to be tough for the Bosnian and I think it will end up giving the higher Ranked player a chance to move into the Second Round with a 63, 64 win.
Santiago Giraldo + 3.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: This looks like one of the better First Round matches in Umag, but I am surprised that Philipp Kohlschreiber is such a strong favourite to see off Santiago Giraldo. You have to think that Giraldo is very serious about this tournament having given up the chance to play in front of his home fans in Bogota in a much weaker field and he has played well enough in recent weeks to make this very competitive.
The Colombian has won the two previous matches against Kohlschreiber, although the last of those was because the latter had to retire when down a set and halfway through the second. You would say that both players might have expected a little more out of the grass season last month, but both Giraldo and Kohlschreiber are very comfortable on this surface so the adjustment shouldn't be too difficult for them.
I do think Kohlschreiber is the more consistent player, but I also think Giraldo has the edge in terms of being able to suddenly get very hot and hit a lot of winners. Both will need to serve well to keep themselves in front in this match and I can see each player taking one of the first two sets and this to be very closely contested throughout.
There are also some similar records in play on the clay and I am finding it hard to split them in terms of a winner which makes the games Giraldo is getting that much more appealing.
Matthew Ebden - 2.5 games v Tatsuma Ito: The move from the grass courts to the hard courts can be difficult, but it might be even more of an issue in Bogota where the altitude makes these courts play a lot faster than expected. That is where Matthew Ebden could have an advantage over Tatsuma Ito after coming through two qualifiers to take his place in the main draw.
The Australian would already have the mental edge in the contest having never been beaten by Ito in the past and winning all five previous matches while dropping just two sets.
Ebden has a decent pop on his serve compared with Ito, but neither player is the most consistent and I can see an erratic match develop. However, the conditions won't be an unknown to Ebden which should help him coming through in Bogota to the Second Round and Ito's serve can be one that gives opponents chances to break serve.
In these faster conditions, one break could destroy any pick made, but I think Ebden is more likely to get a chance to do that and I like him winning this one 64, 76.
MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lukas Rosol - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Matthew Ebden - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
On Tuesday, the five tournaments played this week have got a load of First Round matches scheduled to take the court, although at least three of the five events are going to be affected by rain through much of the week.
With the amount of matches that are going to be played on Tuesday, it is no surprise that I do have some picks from this day, although any from the event in Bogota will be made at lunchtime on Tuesday once the layers have caught up with all the qualifiers who are in action in the main draw.
Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: Between 2005 and 2012, Bastad was a tournament dominated by Spanish players as 6 of the 8 titles in that time ended up going to a player from that nation. It is a tournament that Nicolas Almagro has loved to play at in the past having won the title here and also reached two other Finals, while he was a Quarter Finalist two years ago before losing to his First Round opponent in 2015 in Fernando Verdasco.
Verdasco hasn't added his name to a list of Spaniard's who have won the title in Bastad, but he has reached at least the Quarter Final on five straight appearances here with his best effort being a Final appearance two years ago. The winner of this First Round match will certainly feel they can go all the way this time with the way the draw shaped up, but I am guessing neither Verdasco nor Almagro are overly happy with the match this early in the tournament.
Previous matches have been tight, but it is Verdasco who has had the slight edge, but it has been much more than an edge on the clay courts which might surprise. For all of the success Almagro has had on his favourite surface, he is just 3-8 against Verdasco on clay even though he won their most recent meeting on the surface.
It is no surprise that Verdasco had the better grass court season of the two players, but neither pulled up too many trees when it came to the clay court earlier this season. I just think there is a mental issue for Almagro when he plays some of his compatriots like Verdasco who he perhaps feels has a better talent than himself.
A lot of that is between the ears as Almagro was considered one of the top prospects in Spanish tennis and the player that Toni Nadal highlighted as a big threat to Rafael as they were growing up. For all his talent, Almagro never seems far away from a mental meltdown and I think someone like Verdasco can frustrate him through his sheer power on the court. This should be a tight First Round match, but Verdasco has been playing the more consistent tennis of late and I expect him to come through this big opening test.
Lukas Rosol - 3.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: Getting married and settling down with a family has worked wonders for the likes of Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray over the last twelve months. Lukas Rosol was the latest tennis player to join that club and he will be hoping that married life works out as well for him as it has for others on the Tour.
He gets an early test of how it will suit him in Umag as Rosol plays his First Round match with an improving Damir Dzumhur but a player who is likely to be restricted by physical limitations. Talent can take a player so far, but Dzumhur has to find the consistency from the baseline to really move up the World Rankings as he doesn't have the same power as some of the others on the Tour, nor the serve that can provide a lot of cheap points.
That isn't something that Rosol usually needs to worry about, although I still am critical of his game as he doesn't make the best use out of his weapons. There is a lot of low percentage shots taken on by Rosol who hopes he can blast opponents off the court when sometimes it is better to take a slight step back and play the shots that are there rather than forcing the issue too far.
Rosol has appreciated the clay courts the most in his career so far, even if his biggest win came on the grass against Rafael Nadal, and I think he will be too strong for Dzumhur. Dealing with the power Rosol has at his disposal is going to be tough for the Bosnian and I think it will end up giving the higher Ranked player a chance to move into the Second Round with a 63, 64 win.
Santiago Giraldo + 3.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: This looks like one of the better First Round matches in Umag, but I am surprised that Philipp Kohlschreiber is such a strong favourite to see off Santiago Giraldo. You have to think that Giraldo is very serious about this tournament having given up the chance to play in front of his home fans in Bogota in a much weaker field and he has played well enough in recent weeks to make this very competitive.
The Colombian has won the two previous matches against Kohlschreiber, although the last of those was because the latter had to retire when down a set and halfway through the second. You would say that both players might have expected a little more out of the grass season last month, but both Giraldo and Kohlschreiber are very comfortable on this surface so the adjustment shouldn't be too difficult for them.
I do think Kohlschreiber is the more consistent player, but I also think Giraldo has the edge in terms of being able to suddenly get very hot and hit a lot of winners. Both will need to serve well to keep themselves in front in this match and I can see each player taking one of the first two sets and this to be very closely contested throughout.
There are also some similar records in play on the clay and I am finding it hard to split them in terms of a winner which makes the games Giraldo is getting that much more appealing.
Matthew Ebden - 2.5 games v Tatsuma Ito: The move from the grass courts to the hard courts can be difficult, but it might be even more of an issue in Bogota where the altitude makes these courts play a lot faster than expected. That is where Matthew Ebden could have an advantage over Tatsuma Ito after coming through two qualifiers to take his place in the main draw.
The Australian would already have the mental edge in the contest having never been beaten by Ito in the past and winning all five previous matches while dropping just two sets.
Ebden has a decent pop on his serve compared with Ito, but neither player is the most consistent and I can see an erratic match develop. However, the conditions won't be an unknown to Ebden which should help him coming through in Bogota to the Second Round and Ito's serve can be one that gives opponents chances to break serve.
In these faster conditions, one break could destroy any pick made, but I think Ebden is more likely to get a chance to do that and I like him winning this one 64, 76.
MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lukas Rosol - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Matthew Ebden - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Friday, 18 July 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (July 18th)
Lukas Rosol + 3.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: The last two times these players have met have both come on the clay and both of those matches have also been very competitive with each player winning one.
I am expecting this Quarter Final to have a similar feel and I was surprised that Lukas Rosol has been given as many games as this by a number of layers. He has the big serve that can cause Philipp Kohlschreiber some problems as proven when they met in Stuttgart last week and Rosol has had enough wins in the last two weeks to have built confidence to a high level.
The first serve will be all important for Rosol if he is to win this match and I also hope it is working well enough to remain competitive through the match.
Both players have played well enough this week to think this is going to go at least three sets and Rosol has performed to a level in the last two weeks that makes these games valuable in my opinion, even if he doesn't make it through to the Semi Final.
Roberta Vinci - 3.5 games v Karumi Nara: 2014 has been a contrast for these two players as Roberta Vinci has struggled while Karumi Nara is going to record a career-high wins in a single season on the main Tour.
The Vinci 13 wins and 18 losses on the season have been a real surprise considering she has almost 100 wins when combining 2012 and 2013 (94 wins), but there have been shoots of recovery over the last two weeks.
Vinci reached the Final in Bucharest before coming up short against Simona Halep and she has a couple of wins under her belt here which should improve confidence. Her style of play should match up well against Nara who is another player that could struggle with the number of slices she sees.
Nara has played well on the hard courts all season and she should be making some leaps up the Rankings ahead of the US Open, where she could certainly be a seeded player. However, Nara doesn't have a huge shot in her locker and I can see the veteran Italian using some of the knowledge she has gained to beat her 64, 64.
Richard Gasquet - 5.5 games v Victor Estrella: I have tipped Richard Gasquet to win the tournament in Bogota this week and he got off to a decent start with a straight sets victory over Samuel Groth.
It wasn't surprising that the match needed tie-breaks to settle it with the conditions in Bogota, but I am expecting Gasquet to have an 'easier' time against Victor Estrella.
If Estrella serves well, he could make it competitive as the ball flies in Bogota, but I also think he doesn't have the biggest serve and Gasquet should be able to get enough balls back in play and win the majority of the longer rallies.
There is a clear difference in terms of quality on show and I do think Gasquet can pick up a 64, 62 win.
MY PICKS: Lukas Rosol + 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roberta Vinci - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 5.5 Games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Picks: 9-10, - 2.06 Units (38 Units Staked, - 5.42% Yield)
I am expecting this Quarter Final to have a similar feel and I was surprised that Lukas Rosol has been given as many games as this by a number of layers. He has the big serve that can cause Philipp Kohlschreiber some problems as proven when they met in Stuttgart last week and Rosol has had enough wins in the last two weeks to have built confidence to a high level.
The first serve will be all important for Rosol if he is to win this match and I also hope it is working well enough to remain competitive through the match.
Both players have played well enough this week to think this is going to go at least three sets and Rosol has performed to a level in the last two weeks that makes these games valuable in my opinion, even if he doesn't make it through to the Semi Final.
Roberta Vinci - 3.5 games v Karumi Nara: 2014 has been a contrast for these two players as Roberta Vinci has struggled while Karumi Nara is going to record a career-high wins in a single season on the main Tour.
The Vinci 13 wins and 18 losses on the season have been a real surprise considering she has almost 100 wins when combining 2012 and 2013 (94 wins), but there have been shoots of recovery over the last two weeks.
Vinci reached the Final in Bucharest before coming up short against Simona Halep and she has a couple of wins under her belt here which should improve confidence. Her style of play should match up well against Nara who is another player that could struggle with the number of slices she sees.
Nara has played well on the hard courts all season and she should be making some leaps up the Rankings ahead of the US Open, where she could certainly be a seeded player. However, Nara doesn't have a huge shot in her locker and I can see the veteran Italian using some of the knowledge she has gained to beat her 64, 64.
Richard Gasquet - 5.5 games v Victor Estrella: I have tipped Richard Gasquet to win the tournament in Bogota this week and he got off to a decent start with a straight sets victory over Samuel Groth.
It wasn't surprising that the match needed tie-breaks to settle it with the conditions in Bogota, but I am expecting Gasquet to have an 'easier' time against Victor Estrella.
If Estrella serves well, he could make it competitive as the ball flies in Bogota, but I also think he doesn't have the biggest serve and Gasquet should be able to get enough balls back in play and win the majority of the longer rallies.
There is a clear difference in terms of quality on show and I do think Gasquet can pick up a 64, 62 win.
MY PICKS: Lukas Rosol + 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roberta Vinci - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 5.5 Games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Picks: 9-10, - 2.06 Units (38 Units Staked, - 5.42% Yield)
Tuesday, 15 July 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (July 15th)
I have made just the one outright pick this week from the events that are going to really get going and that can be read here.
The first day of the week wasn't the best for the picks as they went 1-3 and a couple of those picks were pretty poor ones. Andrey Golubev should have perhaps won his match as he seemed the better player than Benoit Paire, particularly in the deciding set, but couldn't get over the line.
With a little more luck, hopefully Tuesday will turn around the poor opening day of this week as a lot of tennis is scheduled for the day in the various tournaments through the world.
Juan Monaco - 4.5 games v Pere Riba: It has been a miserable 2014 to this point for Juan Monaco and that has been highlighted by his results on the clay courts where he is struggling to reach double digit wins.
Last season, Monaco won over twenty matches on the main Tour on clay but he has seven to this point and has struggled through injuries. That has seen the Ranking plummet and Monaco is only a few places above opponent Pere Riba who comes to Hamburg despite lasting one game last week in Bastad.
Like Monaco, Riba will feel most comfortable on the clay courts and I can see this match having a number of breaks of serve as neither player has a dominate shot in that department. Both will need to work hard for their points and I do still believe Monaco has the extra quality to win more of the extended rallies and thus the match.
Monaco won their previous meeting back in 2009 and while he has had a poor season to date, I still think the Argentine can win this match 64, 63.
Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 games v Benoit Paire: Somehow Benoit Paire managed to come through his First Round match against Andrey Golubev, but it has to be said that the Frenchman still doesn't look that confident in his own game.
Paire has a decent serve but seems to lack the concentration to put together his tennis from set to set and, in some cases, even game to game.
Playing Santiago Giraldo looks a big ask for Paire considering how well the Colombian has been playing in recent months. Even his Quarter Final loss last week to Fabio Fognini is not a result that puts me off Giraldo who has the serve to make holding that much more comfortable.
There should be breaks of serve as expected on the clay, but I think Giraldo has enough to win this one 75, 64.
Lukas Rosol - 2.5 games v Julian Reister: Julian Reister has won the last two matches played by these two players and Lukas Rosol is erratic to say the least so even the run to the Stuttgart Final might not mean another decent week is in the offing.
That paragraph may make it strange to see me backing Rosol to win the match then, but Reister hasn't enjoyed any success on the main Tour on the clay this season even if he has played better at the Challenger level.
Rosol is someone who has enjoyed playing on clay courts with two appearances in Finals on the main Tour and also a Challenger title. The slower courts give him a little more time to set up heavy groundstrokes, although the Czech player is erratic to say the least.
If Rosol is serving well, it will be tough for Julian Reister in this match and I think that is where the difference will be made. It won't be the biggest surprise if we needed three sets to separate the players, but I like Rosol to come through 63, 46, 64.
Kaia Kanepi - 3.5 games v Johanna Larsson: Kaia Kanepi has had mixed fortunes on the grass courts through her career, but she has bounced back from a poor Wimbledon to reach back to back titles on clay courts, albeit at a lower level than this.
She won the title in Biarritz last week and also beat Johanna Larsson a couple of weeks ago en route to another Final and I do think Kanepi can frank that form as long as tiredness isn't playing a big factor.
That is the only real reason I can believe in why Kaia Kanepi is as big a price as she is to win this match. Her recent runs to the Finals on clay will have given Kanepi some confidence after struggles before the grass court season, but she has had a fair amount of success on the surface over the last couple of years.
Johanna Larsson has had a similar season in terms of struggles on the main Tour, but a couple of decent runs in the lower level events, but I think Kanepi has more about her game. As long as the tennis hasn't caught up with her, Kanepi should be able to come through with a 64, 63 win.
Alejandro Falla - 4.5 games v Tatsuma Ito: Last season was the first time this ATP 250 event was held in Bogota and Alejandro Falla delighted the home crowds by reaching the Final. He will be hoping to go a step further as the top Colombian player in the draw as Santiago Giraldo has decided to stay in Europe to pick up the bigger Ranking points on offer.
Falla has a decent serve that should be very productive on these courts played in the altitude and I think he will enjoy being back in front of his home supporters.
The match up with Tatsuma Ito should be a good one as Ito doesn't have the biggest serve and Falla can keep the scoreboard pressure on him, while his lefty serve might be even more productive here.
As long as Falla keeps his emotion in check, I believe he can break serve at least once more in each set and come through this match 64, 63.
MY PICKS: Juan Monaco - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 Games @ 1.84 Unibet (2 Units)
Lukas Rosol - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kaia Kanepi - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Alejandro Falla - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-3, - 4.10 Units (8 Units Staked, - 51.25% Yield)
The first day of the week wasn't the best for the picks as they went 1-3 and a couple of those picks were pretty poor ones. Andrey Golubev should have perhaps won his match as he seemed the better player than Benoit Paire, particularly in the deciding set, but couldn't get over the line.
With a little more luck, hopefully Tuesday will turn around the poor opening day of this week as a lot of tennis is scheduled for the day in the various tournaments through the world.
Juan Monaco - 4.5 games v Pere Riba: It has been a miserable 2014 to this point for Juan Monaco and that has been highlighted by his results on the clay courts where he is struggling to reach double digit wins.
Last season, Monaco won over twenty matches on the main Tour on clay but he has seven to this point and has struggled through injuries. That has seen the Ranking plummet and Monaco is only a few places above opponent Pere Riba who comes to Hamburg despite lasting one game last week in Bastad.
Like Monaco, Riba will feel most comfortable on the clay courts and I can see this match having a number of breaks of serve as neither player has a dominate shot in that department. Both will need to work hard for their points and I do still believe Monaco has the extra quality to win more of the extended rallies and thus the match.
Monaco won their previous meeting back in 2009 and while he has had a poor season to date, I still think the Argentine can win this match 64, 63.
Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 games v Benoit Paire: Somehow Benoit Paire managed to come through his First Round match against Andrey Golubev, but it has to be said that the Frenchman still doesn't look that confident in his own game.
Paire has a decent serve but seems to lack the concentration to put together his tennis from set to set and, in some cases, even game to game.
Playing Santiago Giraldo looks a big ask for Paire considering how well the Colombian has been playing in recent months. Even his Quarter Final loss last week to Fabio Fognini is not a result that puts me off Giraldo who has the serve to make holding that much more comfortable.
There should be breaks of serve as expected on the clay, but I think Giraldo has enough to win this one 75, 64.
Lukas Rosol - 2.5 games v Julian Reister: Julian Reister has won the last two matches played by these two players and Lukas Rosol is erratic to say the least so even the run to the Stuttgart Final might not mean another decent week is in the offing.
That paragraph may make it strange to see me backing Rosol to win the match then, but Reister hasn't enjoyed any success on the main Tour on the clay this season even if he has played better at the Challenger level.
Rosol is someone who has enjoyed playing on clay courts with two appearances in Finals on the main Tour and also a Challenger title. The slower courts give him a little more time to set up heavy groundstrokes, although the Czech player is erratic to say the least.
If Rosol is serving well, it will be tough for Julian Reister in this match and I think that is where the difference will be made. It won't be the biggest surprise if we needed three sets to separate the players, but I like Rosol to come through 63, 46, 64.
Kaia Kanepi - 3.5 games v Johanna Larsson: Kaia Kanepi has had mixed fortunes on the grass courts through her career, but she has bounced back from a poor Wimbledon to reach back to back titles on clay courts, albeit at a lower level than this.
She won the title in Biarritz last week and also beat Johanna Larsson a couple of weeks ago en route to another Final and I do think Kanepi can frank that form as long as tiredness isn't playing a big factor.
That is the only real reason I can believe in why Kaia Kanepi is as big a price as she is to win this match. Her recent runs to the Finals on clay will have given Kanepi some confidence after struggles before the grass court season, but she has had a fair amount of success on the surface over the last couple of years.
Johanna Larsson has had a similar season in terms of struggles on the main Tour, but a couple of decent runs in the lower level events, but I think Kanepi has more about her game. As long as the tennis hasn't caught up with her, Kanepi should be able to come through with a 64, 63 win.
Alejandro Falla - 4.5 games v Tatsuma Ito: Last season was the first time this ATP 250 event was held in Bogota and Alejandro Falla delighted the home crowds by reaching the Final. He will be hoping to go a step further as the top Colombian player in the draw as Santiago Giraldo has decided to stay in Europe to pick up the bigger Ranking points on offer.
Falla has a decent serve that should be very productive on these courts played in the altitude and I think he will enjoy being back in front of his home supporters.
The match up with Tatsuma Ito should be a good one as Ito doesn't have the biggest serve and Falla can keep the scoreboard pressure on him, while his lefty serve might be even more productive here.
As long as Falla keeps his emotion in check, I believe he can break serve at least once more in each set and come through this match 64, 63.
MY PICKS: Juan Monaco - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 Games @ 1.84 Unibet (2 Units)
Lukas Rosol - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kaia Kanepi - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Alejandro Falla - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-3, - 4.10 Units (8 Units Staked, - 51.25% Yield)
Sunday, 13 July 2014
Tennis Outright Picks 2014 (July 14-20)
The last grass court event of the season came to an end last week and the Tour moves onto the biggest clay court event held in the summer with the ATP 500 tournament in Hamburg. We also get to see the first signs of the summer hard court swing with Bogota in the men's and Istanbul in the women's Tours getting underway this week.
The big names won't be in action until the tournaments held in Canada in two weeks time, but that doesn't mean there aren't some big titles to be won and the players in action will certainly feel they can pick up vital Ranking points that might set them up for a decent few weeks heading into the US Open.
ATP Bogota
This is the second year that this ATP 250 tournament in Colombia is being held and the altitude of the stadium made it a server's paradise a year ago. On that occasion, big servers like Vasek Pospisil, Kevin Anderson and Ivo Karlovic all made the Semi Finals along with home favourite Alejandro Falla and three of those four players are back to compete for the title again.
It was Ivo Karlovic who won the title twelve months ago and is the Number 2 Seed this time which means he has a bye to the Second Round, but Karlovic is also coming off a big week in Newport where he has reached the Final (playing Lleyton Hewitt as I write this).
The big man has been placed in the 'weaker' half of the draw as he looks to defend his title, although his biggest threat could be Radek Stepanek who is a potential Semi Final opponent and who has won four of their five previous meetings.
Stepanek has been in decent form over the grass court season, but he would likely have to beat a couple of home hopes to reach the Semi Final and I do think Karlovic has every chance of at least reaching the Final again. However, I will look elsewhere simply because he has had a long week in Newport and there is no telling how much energy the 35 year old will have left after making the journey down to Colombia.
This isn't the deepest draw in terms of talent so looking at the Number 1 Seed Richard Gasquet is not a surprise with his previous hard court success. He could have a difficult match against the big-serving Samuel Groth in the Second Round, his first match here, but if the Frenchman can negotiate that, I would fancy him to get to the Final at the very least.
Gasquet could also be fortunate to take on whoever comes out of the second section of the draw as they are likely to have had a number of tough matches to that point. Both Falla and Pospisil are in this mini-section, but are joined by the likes of Bernard Tomic and Adrian Mannarino who will believe they can make their way into the Semi Finals.
Tiredness may become a factor for them and backing Gasquet, who does look the cream of the talent in Bogota, is going to be my call from this tournament.
MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: Richard Gasquet @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Final: 6-4, + 4.04 Units (20 Units Staked, + 20.20% Yield)
Weekly Outright: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Season 2014: + 51.80 Units (1072.5 Units Staked, + 4.83% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
The big names won't be in action until the tournaments held in Canada in two weeks time, but that doesn't mean there aren't some big titles to be won and the players in action will certainly feel they can pick up vital Ranking points that might set them up for a decent few weeks heading into the US Open.
ATP Bogota
This is the second year that this ATP 250 tournament in Colombia is being held and the altitude of the stadium made it a server's paradise a year ago. On that occasion, big servers like Vasek Pospisil, Kevin Anderson and Ivo Karlovic all made the Semi Finals along with home favourite Alejandro Falla and three of those four players are back to compete for the title again.
It was Ivo Karlovic who won the title twelve months ago and is the Number 2 Seed this time which means he has a bye to the Second Round, but Karlovic is also coming off a big week in Newport where he has reached the Final (playing Lleyton Hewitt as I write this).
The big man has been placed in the 'weaker' half of the draw as he looks to defend his title, although his biggest threat could be Radek Stepanek who is a potential Semi Final opponent and who has won four of their five previous meetings.
Stepanek has been in decent form over the grass court season, but he would likely have to beat a couple of home hopes to reach the Semi Final and I do think Karlovic has every chance of at least reaching the Final again. However, I will look elsewhere simply because he has had a long week in Newport and there is no telling how much energy the 35 year old will have left after making the journey down to Colombia.
This isn't the deepest draw in terms of talent so looking at the Number 1 Seed Richard Gasquet is not a surprise with his previous hard court success. He could have a difficult match against the big-serving Samuel Groth in the Second Round, his first match here, but if the Frenchman can negotiate that, I would fancy him to get to the Final at the very least.
Gasquet could also be fortunate to take on whoever comes out of the second section of the draw as they are likely to have had a number of tough matches to that point. Both Falla and Pospisil are in this mini-section, but are joined by the likes of Bernard Tomic and Adrian Mannarino who will believe they can make their way into the Semi Finals.
Tiredness may become a factor for them and backing Gasquet, who does look the cream of the talent in Bogota, is going to be my call from this tournament.
MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: Richard Gasquet @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Final: 6-4, + 4.04 Units (20 Units Staked, + 20.20% Yield)
Weekly Outright: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Season 2014: + 51.80 Units (1072.5 Units Staked, + 4.83% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Friday, 19 July 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (July 19th)
As the week draws to a close, we have reached the Quarter Final at the tournaments being played this week. The picks have been slightly successful this week up to this point, but a little more luck will see another strong week to follow the tournaments last week and Wimbledon before that.
Nicolas Almagro - 2.5 games v Juan Monaco: This is a classic clay court match between two players that are most comfortable on this surface.
Both players will know they have what it takes to beat the other, but I do think Nicolas Almagro is playing the slightly more solid tennis.
There is no doubt that both Almagro and Juan Monaco are having down years and both could start slipping down the Rankings. However, it is Monaco that seems to have slipped a little more this season than the Spaniard and his serve can be a liability at times.
I expect there to be some gruelling rallies in the match, but I believe Almagro has the more power in the groundstrokes and the serve that will lead the match in his favour. Almagro has to keep his errors to a minimum and if he does that, I expect he will win the match. This will likely be a fun match to watch while it lasts, but Almagro should come through 75, 63.
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Federico Delbonis: This has been a huge week for Federico Delbonis as he qualified for the tournament in Hamburg and has then won three matches to reach the Quarter Final. That gives him every chance of entering the top 100 on Monday, but it could be a big ask for the Argentine player to knock off an in-form Fernando Verdasco.
Verdasco was a disappointment in the Final in Bastad last week as he fell to Carlos Berlocq, but overall his form has been good for around a month after a disappointing 2013. It is likely that he will enter the top 30 in the World Rankings with another win and he has a couple of decent wins under his belt from this week.
I have been impressed with the consistency Delbonis has shown in his last two wins over Dmitry Tursunov and Tommy Robredo, but he will be put under a lot of pressure by Verdasco in this one.
With the power and aggression that Verdasco has been able to play with in the last month, I think he will keep the pressure on Delbonis in this match. The double faults remain a problem for Verdasco, but he has served effectively for the most part and I think he finds a way to record a 64, 64 win.
Tommy Haas - 2.5 games v Fabio Fognini: Last week, I backed Tommy Haas to clear the spread against Fabio Fognini and couldn't have got it more wrong as the Italian won the match comfortably and then went on to win the tournament in Stuttgart.
Fognini is clearly very confident at the moment and he has followed the win, his first title on the Tour, with a couple of wins this week. The Italian has dropped just one set in his last seven matches so confidence will certainly be high.
However, the amount of tennis he has played recently will surely catch up with him at some point and I expect a much better effort from Tommy Haas in this one after the lacklustre way he was beaten last week.
I am expecting Haas to find more success against Fognini's second serve and I expect the German to make the necessary adjustments in this one to overturn the result from last week. I thought Haas would be able to create chances on the Fognini serve last week, while I expect him to serve much more effectively in this one.
A confident Fognini is a different animal and he is certainly having his best year on the Tour, but I think Haas can get a measure of revenge by winning this in straight sets.
Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 games v Matteo Viola: I think the appearance of Matteo Viola at the Quarter Final stage is a real surprise to me, but his run could come to an end on Friday.
The court in Bogota is playing incredibly quickly from the tennis I have seen and that should aid Vasek Pospisil who has a big serve and has been comfortable getting to the net to put away volleys.
With the speed in the court, it can be tough to break serve, but I think the Canadian's aggression will aid him massively and he will put a lot of pressure on Viola to pass him at the net, which is not easy against a player with the wingspan Pospisil possesses.
The Italian will be confident from a couple of wins this week, but I think Pospisil is the better hard court player and can book his place in the Semi Final after a 76, 63 win.
Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 games v Matteo Viola: I think the appearance of Matteo Viola at the Quarter Final stage is a real surprise to me, but his run could come to an end on Friday.
The court in Bogota is playing incredibly quickly from the tennis I have seen and that should aid Vasek Pospisil who has a big serve and has been comfortable getting to the net to put away volleys.
With the speed in the court, it can be tough to break serve, but I think the Canadian's aggression will aid him massively and he will put a lot of pressure on Viola to pass him at the net, which is not easy against a player with the wingspan Pospisil possesses.
The Italian will be confident from a couple of wins this week, but I think Pospisil is the better hard court player and can book his place in the Semi Final after a 76, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Haas - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-7, + 1.40 Units (30 Units Staked, + 4.67% Yield)
Thursday, 18 July 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (July 18th)
We finally got the confirmation we were looking for when Roger Federer took to the court on Wednesday- he has indeed changed his racquet, despite all the success he had with his old one.
Federer has decided to do something that Pete Sampras admitted he wished he had done- he has upgraded his racquet and has decided to move to a bigger head. This will increase his power and give Federer the chance to get in line with the other three top men's players on the Tour, although it will be interesting to see how his one-handed backhand holds up with a bigger racquet.
It is further proof that Federer is not convinced about his game after a pretty poor 2013 by his high standards and the early defeat at Wimbledon must have inspired a change he was perhaps considering anyway. I am guessing this was also the reason he decided to take a Wild Card in Hamburg and Gstaad so he can get a feel for the racquet ahead of the three big tournaments that will be played in August/September.
I can understand why Federer would decide to make the change, but the next couple of months will tell us all we need to know about his chances of getting back to the top of the game and having the chance to add to his Grand Slam tally.
It was a mixed bag when it came to the picks yesterday as they went 2-2, although I was a touch disappointed that Fernando Verdasco didn't cover after opening up a 40 lead in the final set and then double faulting his next service game away (three double faults in one game). Still, the picks are in the positive as we go into the fourth day of the week and that is at least something to hold on to.
Hopefully it will be a little more productive on Thursday with the following picks from the matches on offer.
Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: I backed Nicolas Almagro in an identical spot last week against the same opponent and he managed to come through the hard way in that match after dropping the opening set.
It was a poor start from Almagro as Guillermo Garcia-Lopez got off to a fast start, but the rest of the match was mostly dominated by the former.
Both players will know what to expect from the other, but the Almagro serve could once again prove to be the difference as he is capable of setting up easy points on that shot, either through unreturned serves or with short replies.
He should have learned from the slow start last week and while we will see chances for both men to break serve, I think Almagro will come through in a more routine manner this week compared with last week in Bastad.
Tommy Haas - 3.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: Carlos Berlocq is certainly enjoying a period of very strong form after winning his first title in Bastad last week and following that up with a couple of wins here in Hamburg.
However, he has to be feeling some effects from the amount of tennis he has had to play in the last couple of weeks, particularly as Berlocq has needed three sets to win both matches played this week.
He will be facing Tommy Haas, a player who sneaked through the last Round after a three set battle of his own. I just feel Haas can serve pretty big on his day and can be tough to break, while Berlocq has to earn every point he wins.
At some point the huge amount of tennis that Berlocq will catch up with him, while this is a player that has been beaten by players like Paul-Henri Mathieu, Daniel Gimeno-Traver and Sergiy Stakhovsky on the surface this season. Berlocq will likely make it a tough first set, but I expect Haas to just put a little too much pressure on him and record a 64, 63 win.
Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Jan Hajek: I am sure Roger Federer is glad that he doesn't have to face Ernests Gulbis in this Third Round match and this is a much more winnable match for him.
With a new racquet in his hand, it is tough to know what Federer's intentions are this week- of course he wants to win the tournament, but is he in 'testing' mode and just trying to get comfortable with his new weapon of choice?
Either way, you have to think if he performs as he did in the last two sets against Daniel Brands that he will be too good for Jan Hajek, a player that has mainly achieved his successes on the Challenger Tour.
I expect Federer will be able to come through with a 61, 64 win.
Vasek Pospisil - 2.5 games v James Duckworth: The ATP tournament in Bogota is not exactly loaded with top players so the likes of Vasek Pospisil and James Duckworth can pick up some big Ranking points during the course of the week.
Both of these players have the chance to go very deep in the tournament this week and both have had success on the hard court at Challenger level. However, of the two, Vasek Pospisil seems to have the more upside to his game with a big serve going to be well aided by the conditions here in Bogota.
James Duckworth was a surprise winner in the First Round so his confidence has to be in a good place, but the Canadian's serve may be the difference between the two in this match and I see Pospisil going through to the Quarter Final with a 76, 64 win under his belt.
MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Haas - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-5, + 1.80 Units (22 Units Staked, + 8.18% Yield)
Federer has decided to do something that Pete Sampras admitted he wished he had done- he has upgraded his racquet and has decided to move to a bigger head. This will increase his power and give Federer the chance to get in line with the other three top men's players on the Tour, although it will be interesting to see how his one-handed backhand holds up with a bigger racquet.
It is further proof that Federer is not convinced about his game after a pretty poor 2013 by his high standards and the early defeat at Wimbledon must have inspired a change he was perhaps considering anyway. I am guessing this was also the reason he decided to take a Wild Card in Hamburg and Gstaad so he can get a feel for the racquet ahead of the three big tournaments that will be played in August/September.
I can understand why Federer would decide to make the change, but the next couple of months will tell us all we need to know about his chances of getting back to the top of the game and having the chance to add to his Grand Slam tally.
It was a mixed bag when it came to the picks yesterday as they went 2-2, although I was a touch disappointed that Fernando Verdasco didn't cover after opening up a 40 lead in the final set and then double faulting his next service game away (three double faults in one game). Still, the picks are in the positive as we go into the fourth day of the week and that is at least something to hold on to.
Hopefully it will be a little more productive on Thursday with the following picks from the matches on offer.
Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: I backed Nicolas Almagro in an identical spot last week against the same opponent and he managed to come through the hard way in that match after dropping the opening set.
It was a poor start from Almagro as Guillermo Garcia-Lopez got off to a fast start, but the rest of the match was mostly dominated by the former.
Both players will know what to expect from the other, but the Almagro serve could once again prove to be the difference as he is capable of setting up easy points on that shot, either through unreturned serves or with short replies.
He should have learned from the slow start last week and while we will see chances for both men to break serve, I think Almagro will come through in a more routine manner this week compared with last week in Bastad.
Tommy Haas - 3.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: Carlos Berlocq is certainly enjoying a period of very strong form after winning his first title in Bastad last week and following that up with a couple of wins here in Hamburg.
However, he has to be feeling some effects from the amount of tennis he has had to play in the last couple of weeks, particularly as Berlocq has needed three sets to win both matches played this week.
He will be facing Tommy Haas, a player who sneaked through the last Round after a three set battle of his own. I just feel Haas can serve pretty big on his day and can be tough to break, while Berlocq has to earn every point he wins.
At some point the huge amount of tennis that Berlocq will catch up with him, while this is a player that has been beaten by players like Paul-Henri Mathieu, Daniel Gimeno-Traver and Sergiy Stakhovsky on the surface this season. Berlocq will likely make it a tough first set, but I expect Haas to just put a little too much pressure on him and record a 64, 63 win.
Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Jan Hajek: I am sure Roger Federer is glad that he doesn't have to face Ernests Gulbis in this Third Round match and this is a much more winnable match for him.
With a new racquet in his hand, it is tough to know what Federer's intentions are this week- of course he wants to win the tournament, but is he in 'testing' mode and just trying to get comfortable with his new weapon of choice?
Either way, you have to think if he performs as he did in the last two sets against Daniel Brands that he will be too good for Jan Hajek, a player that has mainly achieved his successes on the Challenger Tour.
I expect Federer will be able to come through with a 61, 64 win.
Vasek Pospisil - 2.5 games v James Duckworth: The ATP tournament in Bogota is not exactly loaded with top players so the likes of Vasek Pospisil and James Duckworth can pick up some big Ranking points during the course of the week.
Both of these players have the chance to go very deep in the tournament this week and both have had success on the hard court at Challenger level. However, of the two, Vasek Pospisil seems to have the more upside to his game with a big serve going to be well aided by the conditions here in Bogota.
James Duckworth was a surprise winner in the First Round so his confidence has to be in a good place, but the Canadian's serve may be the difference between the two in this match and I see Pospisil going through to the Quarter Final with a 76, 64 win under his belt.
MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Haas - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-5, + 1.80 Units (22 Units Staked, + 8.18% Yield)
Tuesday, 16 July 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (July 16th)
The opening day of the week produced a positive 3-1 success rate from the picks made and Tuesday is loaded with plenty of matches from the various tournaments being played this week.
However, that doesn't necessarily mean that there will be a lot of options and the following are the picks for July 16th:
Federico Delbonis v Julian Reister: Federico Delbonis qualified for the main tournament in Hamburg and I feel he will be able to take out one of the home players in Julian Reister.
Both players have enjoyed plenty of success at the Challenger level when it comes to clay court tournaments, but it is Delbonis that has been able to convert some of that form onto the main Tour level in the past.
Neither player can claim to be used to the main Tour level, but Delbonis has won a couple of matches here so the conditions will not hold too many fears for him. The Argentine also beat Reister comfortably at the French Open, although the latter did have to qualify for that tournament and he could have been tired at the time.
Going against a home player in a tight match as this one might not be the wisest idea, but I do think Delbonis is the more comfortable clay court player and I think he will come through as the underdog.
Robin Haase - 2.5 games v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: Another qualifier may not have as much success as Federico Delbonis as far as I am concerned and that is Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who takes on Robin Haase.
Robin Haase is one of the most erratic players on the Tour and he can't be totally trusted as he is capable of throwing in a terrible match at any point. However, he has reached the Final in the last two Challenger events he has played on the clay and he also has a couple of Quarter Finals on the main Tour under his belt.
It was also around this time twelve months ago that Haase won a title on the clay courts and he will feel he has the beating on Schwartzman who is 1-4 on the main Tour on clay. Schwartzman has won a couple of qualifying matches here so he should be able to gain some confidence from that, but a lot of his success has come against players ranked much lower than Haase.
Like I said, Haase isn't the most trustworthy player on the Tour, but he should be a little too good in this one and come through 75, 64.
Xavier Malisse v Alejandro Falla: The home crowd will be 100% behind Alejandro Falla in this one, but I don't believe it will be enough for him to overcome some of the injury problems he has had over the last couple of months.
Those injuries has seen Falla retire in two of his last three matches and he has lost five straight matches, all of which doesn't bode well against a capable opponent like Xavier Malisse.
However, you can't always trust you are going to get the best of Malisse these days and his erratic play fluctuates badly within matches. This will be his first match since being beaten in the First Round at Wimbledon and he also had a poor time on the clay courts, although that was more expected.
Malisse does have a couple of Quarter Final appearances earlier this season and the hard courts do favour his game. If Falla had been in better form or not shown any injury problems, the home support could have carried him here- but with those doubts and this being a pick 'em contest, I would back Malisse to make it through to the Second Round.
Xavier Malisse v Alejandro Falla: The home crowd will be 100% behind Alejandro Falla in this one, but I don't believe it will be enough for him to overcome some of the injury problems he has had over the last couple of months.
Those injuries has seen Falla retire in two of his last three matches and he has lost five straight matches, all of which doesn't bode well against a capable opponent like Xavier Malisse.
However, you can't always trust you are going to get the best of Malisse these days and his erratic play fluctuates badly within matches. This will be his first match since being beaten in the First Round at Wimbledon and he also had a poor time on the clay courts, although that was more expected.
Malisse does have a couple of Quarter Final appearances earlier this season and the hard courts do favour his game. If Falla had been in better form or not shown any injury problems, the home support could have carried him here- but with those doubts and this being a pick 'em contest, I would back Malisse to make it through to the Second Round.
MY PICKS: Federico Delbonis @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Robin Haase - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Xavier Malisse @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Xavier Malisse @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-1, + 3.44 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43% Yield)
Monday, 15 July 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (July 15th)
We have a new week of tournaments beginning on Monday as the ATP Tour makes a stop in Hamburg and Bogota while the WTA Tour heads to Bad Gastein and Bastad.
I have made a couple of outright picks from the ATP tournaments and they can be found here
There are a few matches being played on Monday as the First Rounds get going and these are my picks from the opening day of a new week
Albert Montanes - 2.5 games v Paul-Henri Mathieu: Paul-Henri Mathieu has struggled to get back to the upper regions of the Men's game and he looks up against it in this match against Albert Montanes.
At the moment, Mathieu doesn't seem to have the confidence in his own game and the consistency to beat Montanes, a player that is comfortable on the clay courts and has a title to his name on the surface earlier this season.
Last week was the fifth time that Mathieu has been knocked out in the First Round of a clay court tournament this season and I just feel his lack of consistency in his game is exposed on the surface. I do fear that Albert Montanes doesn't have the power to hit through Mathieu and he can also be outplayed easily at times, but the Spaniard should be consistent enough to force errors from the Mathieu game.
It will still need Montanes to serve well, but I do think he can come through in a tight 75, 64 win.
Johanna Larsson - 3.5 games v Sofia Arvidsson: Both of these girls will be playing in front of their home support in this match, but Sofia Arvidsson has been a poor run of form and I expect her slightly higher Ranked compatriot to come through this First Round match.
Out of the two players, Johanna Larsson has shown some form on the clay courts with a Quarter Final appearance earlier this season and she was a Semi Finalist last season here. Prior to that, Larsson was a Runner Up here in 2011 and so she will be comfortable in her surroundings.
On the other hand, Arvidsson has lost eight of her last nine matches on the Tour, including five straight defeats on the clay courts. Most of those losses have come against players that would be considered stronger than Larsson, but confidence can't be high and it won't be helped that she lost her last two matches against her compatriot, including here in Bastad two years ago.
Being back at home may help Arvidsson as she has reached the Semi Final and the Quarter Final herein the last two seasons, but I think the lack of match wins could hinder her here and I think Larsson comes through 75, 63.
Flavia Pennetta - 3.5 games v Mariana Duque-Marino: Another player that hasn't been in the best form to open 2013 was Flavia Pennetta as she made a comeback from a long injury lay off. Understandably, the lack of matches told earlier on this season, but her run to the Fourth Round at Wimbledon as well as a Semi Final appearance in Strasbourg could show that the Italian is back on her way up the Rankings.
It is always tough to return from a long period off the Tour and Rafael Nadal is one of the few exceptions that has come back at the same level as when they left. Pennetta had some problems early on this season, but signs over the last couple of months says she is perhaps on her way.
The Italian is happiest on the clay courts and will expect to beat Mariana Duque-Marino, although the Colombian is also most comfortable on this surface. However, much of those successes have come at the level below the main Tour and I think it will be tough for Duque-Marino in this one to match the power that Pennetta can bring to the table.
There will likely be plenty of breaks of serve, but I expect the Italian to move through to the Second Round after a 75, 63 win.
Illya Marchenko - 3.5 games v Matteo Viola: The tournament in Bogota does have the feel of a Challenger rather than an ATP 250 event and the two players contesting this First Round match would be much more likely to feature in the former than the latter.
Illya Marchenko is erratic, but the altitude in Colombia could make him a little more dangerous as he does try to play an expansive game. Most of his successes in tennis have come on the hard courts, both indoor and outdoor, and he does have a Semi Final from a Challenger in Dallas earlier this year.
He will likely be the more comfortable on this surface and while not having a lot of confidence after recent performances, he is bound to have more than Matteo Viola.
The Italian has lost eleven of his last twelve matches, almost all under the main Tour level. However, he has had some success on the hard courts over the last twelve months, but confidence has got to be in a bad place with a run of defeats that he is on.
It could be a court where one break of serve could mean the end of the set, but I think Marchenko will find a way to come through with a 64, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Albert Montanes - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Unibet (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Flavia Pennetta - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Illya Marchenko - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
I have made a couple of outright picks from the ATP tournaments and they can be found here
There are a few matches being played on Monday as the First Rounds get going and these are my picks from the opening day of a new week
Albert Montanes - 2.5 games v Paul-Henri Mathieu: Paul-Henri Mathieu has struggled to get back to the upper regions of the Men's game and he looks up against it in this match against Albert Montanes.
At the moment, Mathieu doesn't seem to have the confidence in his own game and the consistency to beat Montanes, a player that is comfortable on the clay courts and has a title to his name on the surface earlier this season.
Last week was the fifth time that Mathieu has been knocked out in the First Round of a clay court tournament this season and I just feel his lack of consistency in his game is exposed on the surface. I do fear that Albert Montanes doesn't have the power to hit through Mathieu and he can also be outplayed easily at times, but the Spaniard should be consistent enough to force errors from the Mathieu game.
It will still need Montanes to serve well, but I do think he can come through in a tight 75, 64 win.
Johanna Larsson - 3.5 games v Sofia Arvidsson: Both of these girls will be playing in front of their home support in this match, but Sofia Arvidsson has been a poor run of form and I expect her slightly higher Ranked compatriot to come through this First Round match.
Out of the two players, Johanna Larsson has shown some form on the clay courts with a Quarter Final appearance earlier this season and she was a Semi Finalist last season here. Prior to that, Larsson was a Runner Up here in 2011 and so she will be comfortable in her surroundings.
On the other hand, Arvidsson has lost eight of her last nine matches on the Tour, including five straight defeats on the clay courts. Most of those losses have come against players that would be considered stronger than Larsson, but confidence can't be high and it won't be helped that she lost her last two matches against her compatriot, including here in Bastad two years ago.
Being back at home may help Arvidsson as she has reached the Semi Final and the Quarter Final herein the last two seasons, but I think the lack of match wins could hinder her here and I think Larsson comes through 75, 63.
Flavia Pennetta - 3.5 games v Mariana Duque-Marino: Another player that hasn't been in the best form to open 2013 was Flavia Pennetta as she made a comeback from a long injury lay off. Understandably, the lack of matches told earlier on this season, but her run to the Fourth Round at Wimbledon as well as a Semi Final appearance in Strasbourg could show that the Italian is back on her way up the Rankings.
It is always tough to return from a long period off the Tour and Rafael Nadal is one of the few exceptions that has come back at the same level as when they left. Pennetta had some problems early on this season, but signs over the last couple of months says she is perhaps on her way.
The Italian is happiest on the clay courts and will expect to beat Mariana Duque-Marino, although the Colombian is also most comfortable on this surface. However, much of those successes have come at the level below the main Tour and I think it will be tough for Duque-Marino in this one to match the power that Pennetta can bring to the table.
There will likely be plenty of breaks of serve, but I expect the Italian to move through to the Second Round after a 75, 63 win.
Illya Marchenko - 3.5 games v Matteo Viola: The tournament in Bogota does have the feel of a Challenger rather than an ATP 250 event and the two players contesting this First Round match would be much more likely to feature in the former than the latter.
Illya Marchenko is erratic, but the altitude in Colombia could make him a little more dangerous as he does try to play an expansive game. Most of his successes in tennis have come on the hard courts, both indoor and outdoor, and he does have a Semi Final from a Challenger in Dallas earlier this year.
He will likely be the more comfortable on this surface and while not having a lot of confidence after recent performances, he is bound to have more than Matteo Viola.
The Italian has lost eleven of his last twelve matches, almost all under the main Tour level. However, he has had some success on the hard courts over the last twelve months, but confidence has got to be in a bad place with a run of defeats that he is on.
It could be a court where one break of serve could mean the end of the set, but I think Marchenko will find a way to come through with a 64, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Albert Montanes - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Unibet (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Flavia Pennetta - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Illya Marchenko - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sunday, 14 July 2013
Tennis Outright Picks 2013 (July 15-21)
The first week after the end of a Grand Slam is usually a quiet week in the tennis world as most of the general public have turned their attention to something other than the tournaments that feature few of the top players in the world.
While many people who watch tennis regularly will recognise some of the Winners and Finalists this week, for a casual viewer the likes of Fabio Fognini and Carlos Berlocq being at the business end of tournaments would be an unfamiliar sight.
To be fair, both Fognini and Berlocq could be considered surprises to a lot of folks, although both are in the midst of their best season on the main Tour in their career. Fognini in particular has always had a lot of upside, but he is finally putting more consistency together and could be someone to keep an eye on, although the serve is weakness that will very likely prevent him becoming much more than a top 20 player.
One piece of news that was of interest this week was the appointment of Jimmy Connors as the new coach for Maria Sharapova. The Russian clearly must feel that she need something a little different to become a regular Grand Slam winner, but the choice of Connors is an interesting one. He did do some sterling work with Andy Roddick for the short time they were together and actually revived his fellow American's career at a time when it seemed Roddick was drifting a little bit on the Tour and was no longer a threat at Grand Slam level.
It will be interesting to see how Connors and Sharapova work together, although they have spent time together previously which ended with the latter winning the Australian Open. We will likely see the fruits of their labour early next season with little time until the US Open, but it is definitely a good appointment as far as I am concerned.
This week we will have a surprise participant in the ATP Hamburg event, but it is also strange to see Serena Williams playing in Bastad where the second seeded player is 30 in the World Rankings. Of course, Williams is an absolute huge favourite to add that title to her collection, but I can't figure out why she is playing another clay court event ahead of the big tournament in Stanford and the two Premier events in Canada and Cincinnati that will be taking place within the next month.
It was a decent week for the picks last time out, but it was a real shame that Lleyton Hewitt couldn't complete the win in Newport. He was up a set and serving for the match in the second set but suddenly became very nervous on his own serve and was broken in back to back service games.
Even in the third set, it was Hewitt that earned the first break of serve against Nicolas Mahut, but he couldn't save a break point while the Frenchman was on the floor and was broken in back to back service games for a second time in the match.
However, even with that setback and the three outright picks not being very helpful, it was still a good week for the picks and the results are below my picks for the tournaments to take place this week/
ATP Bogota
You can always tell the quality of a tournament by looking at the Rankings of the seeded players and it says a lot that 4th seeded player here, Eduoard Roger-Vasselin, is down at 71 in the World Rankings.
Unsurprisingly with that in mind, the outright market is top heavy at this first time tournament in Bogota since being purchased from Los Angeles. Both Janko Tipsarevic and Kevin Anderson are the two favourites to win this tournament and I think the latter is the one that could make hay.
Anderson struggled after Wimbledon last year, but he has had a decent season this time around and the draw favours him more than the Number 1 seed Tipsarevic in my opinion.
The South African Number 2 seed should be a little too good for home favourite Santiago Giraldo and the likes of Adrian Mannarino and Igor Sijsling who are potential Semi Final opponents.
On the other hand, Tipsarevic has not been in great form in 2013 and has dropped out of the top ten in the World Rankings. He also has an awkward match against Xavier Malisse that could block his path to the Final.
In my opinion, there isn't a great deal of threat here for the top two seeds so it would be a surprise if the winner didn't come from one of them. Kevin Anderson has reached five Finals in his career and four of those have come on the hard courts- he has also won his only two titles on hard courts and I will have a small interest in him this week.
ATP Hamburg
I believe this is the last ATP 500 event taking place on the clay courts this season and there is at least one big surprise entrant in the field in Hamburg this week Roger Federer took a Wild Card into the event as he is clearly wanting to improve his current World Number 5 Ranking and he is the top seed and the clear favourite to win a tournament where he enjoyed plenty of success during the years it was a Masters event.
However, he looks remarkably short to me even in a field where no other player from the top 10 is taking part. At the moment, Federer looks extremely vulnerable against a lot of players he would be expected to breeze past and the lack of Finals, let alone titles, has to be a concern for him.
Usually in a field that has gathered in Germany, Federer would be odds on to win, yet even being slightly odds against doesn't appeal to me. The main reason for my own lack of excitement surrounding his chances is the fact that Ernests Gulbis is a potential Third Round opponent.
Gulbis loves to raise his game against the best players on the Tour and all three of his previous matches against Federer have gone the distance and, more importantly, he will have the belief he can beat the former World Number 1 on this surface having split two matches on clay in the past.
That match alone would concern me as a Federer backer in the outright market, although I would expect him to see off most of the other competition in the top half of the draw including Feliciano Lopez, Fernando Verdasco, Jerzy Janowicq and Tommy Robredo.
With some potential doubts over the favourite, I will look to the loaded bottom half of the draw for a potential Winner and Finalist.
The two Finalists from last season, Juan Monaco and Tommy Haas and it is the latter that I believe could return to that game. Haas was a surprise loser in the Quarter Final last week in Stuttgart and certainly doesn't have an easy path through to the Final with dangers lurking from the first match, most likely against Victor Hanescu.
Players like Fabio Fognini, Andreas Seppi, Albert Ramos and Marcel Granollers could all cause problems, but I expect Haas can come through this section to a Semi Final berth. Fognini played really well in Stuttgart last week, but winning his first title on the ATP Tour could mean partying for the Italian and he may not be in the best shape in Hamburg for another long week, while the other three players don't look as strong as Haas.
My concern for Haas would be that the clay courts are not his favourite surface, but reaching the Final here last season and winning in Munich will make him believe he can go deep again. And in the Semi Final he could face an opponent that has a lot of tennis in their legs with dangers lurking around every corner in that section of the draw.
Last year's winner, Juan Monaco, will have his supporters, but he could face the dangerous Gael Monfils in his first match, while the likes of Nicolas Almagro and Mikhail Youzhny will certainly feel they can go deep this week. I have doubts about all four of their players and their ability to beat Haas this week and so I'll have a small interest in the home crowd getting a German Finalist for the second year in a row.
MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson @ 2.75 Coral (1 Unit)
Tommy Haas @ 9.00 Stan James (1 Unit E/W)
Tennis Outright Picks (July 8-14): 0-3, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Tennis Daily Picks (July 8-14): 17-7, + 17.94 Units (46 Units Staked, + 39% Yield)
Season 2013: + 35.22 Units (809.5 Units Staked, + 4.35% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
While many people who watch tennis regularly will recognise some of the Winners and Finalists this week, for a casual viewer the likes of Fabio Fognini and Carlos Berlocq being at the business end of tournaments would be an unfamiliar sight.
To be fair, both Fognini and Berlocq could be considered surprises to a lot of folks, although both are in the midst of their best season on the main Tour in their career. Fognini in particular has always had a lot of upside, but he is finally putting more consistency together and could be someone to keep an eye on, although the serve is weakness that will very likely prevent him becoming much more than a top 20 player.
One piece of news that was of interest this week was the appointment of Jimmy Connors as the new coach for Maria Sharapova. The Russian clearly must feel that she need something a little different to become a regular Grand Slam winner, but the choice of Connors is an interesting one. He did do some sterling work with Andy Roddick for the short time they were together and actually revived his fellow American's career at a time when it seemed Roddick was drifting a little bit on the Tour and was no longer a threat at Grand Slam level.
It will be interesting to see how Connors and Sharapova work together, although they have spent time together previously which ended with the latter winning the Australian Open. We will likely see the fruits of their labour early next season with little time until the US Open, but it is definitely a good appointment as far as I am concerned.
This week we will have a surprise participant in the ATP Hamburg event, but it is also strange to see Serena Williams playing in Bastad where the second seeded player is 30 in the World Rankings. Of course, Williams is an absolute huge favourite to add that title to her collection, but I can't figure out why she is playing another clay court event ahead of the big tournament in Stanford and the two Premier events in Canada and Cincinnati that will be taking place within the next month.
It was a decent week for the picks last time out, but it was a real shame that Lleyton Hewitt couldn't complete the win in Newport. He was up a set and serving for the match in the second set but suddenly became very nervous on his own serve and was broken in back to back service games.
Even in the third set, it was Hewitt that earned the first break of serve against Nicolas Mahut, but he couldn't save a break point while the Frenchman was on the floor and was broken in back to back service games for a second time in the match.
However, even with that setback and the three outright picks not being very helpful, it was still a good week for the picks and the results are below my picks for the tournaments to take place this week/
ATP Bogota
You can always tell the quality of a tournament by looking at the Rankings of the seeded players and it says a lot that 4th seeded player here, Eduoard Roger-Vasselin, is down at 71 in the World Rankings.
Unsurprisingly with that in mind, the outright market is top heavy at this first time tournament in Bogota since being purchased from Los Angeles. Both Janko Tipsarevic and Kevin Anderson are the two favourites to win this tournament and I think the latter is the one that could make hay.
Anderson struggled after Wimbledon last year, but he has had a decent season this time around and the draw favours him more than the Number 1 seed Tipsarevic in my opinion.
The South African Number 2 seed should be a little too good for home favourite Santiago Giraldo and the likes of Adrian Mannarino and Igor Sijsling who are potential Semi Final opponents.
On the other hand, Tipsarevic has not been in great form in 2013 and has dropped out of the top ten in the World Rankings. He also has an awkward match against Xavier Malisse that could block his path to the Final.
In my opinion, there isn't a great deal of threat here for the top two seeds so it would be a surprise if the winner didn't come from one of them. Kevin Anderson has reached five Finals in his career and four of those have come on the hard courts- he has also won his only two titles on hard courts and I will have a small interest in him this week.
ATP Hamburg
I believe this is the last ATP 500 event taking place on the clay courts this season and there is at least one big surprise entrant in the field in Hamburg this week Roger Federer took a Wild Card into the event as he is clearly wanting to improve his current World Number 5 Ranking and he is the top seed and the clear favourite to win a tournament where he enjoyed plenty of success during the years it was a Masters event.
However, he looks remarkably short to me even in a field where no other player from the top 10 is taking part. At the moment, Federer looks extremely vulnerable against a lot of players he would be expected to breeze past and the lack of Finals, let alone titles, has to be a concern for him.
Usually in a field that has gathered in Germany, Federer would be odds on to win, yet even being slightly odds against doesn't appeal to me. The main reason for my own lack of excitement surrounding his chances is the fact that Ernests Gulbis is a potential Third Round opponent.
Gulbis loves to raise his game against the best players on the Tour and all three of his previous matches against Federer have gone the distance and, more importantly, he will have the belief he can beat the former World Number 1 on this surface having split two matches on clay in the past.
That match alone would concern me as a Federer backer in the outright market, although I would expect him to see off most of the other competition in the top half of the draw including Feliciano Lopez, Fernando Verdasco, Jerzy Janowicq and Tommy Robredo.
With some potential doubts over the favourite, I will look to the loaded bottom half of the draw for a potential Winner and Finalist.
The two Finalists from last season, Juan Monaco and Tommy Haas and it is the latter that I believe could return to that game. Haas was a surprise loser in the Quarter Final last week in Stuttgart and certainly doesn't have an easy path through to the Final with dangers lurking from the first match, most likely against Victor Hanescu.
Players like Fabio Fognini, Andreas Seppi, Albert Ramos and Marcel Granollers could all cause problems, but I expect Haas can come through this section to a Semi Final berth. Fognini played really well in Stuttgart last week, but winning his first title on the ATP Tour could mean partying for the Italian and he may not be in the best shape in Hamburg for another long week, while the other three players don't look as strong as Haas.
My concern for Haas would be that the clay courts are not his favourite surface, but reaching the Final here last season and winning in Munich will make him believe he can go deep again. And in the Semi Final he could face an opponent that has a lot of tennis in their legs with dangers lurking around every corner in that section of the draw.
Last year's winner, Juan Monaco, will have his supporters, but he could face the dangerous Gael Monfils in his first match, while the likes of Nicolas Almagro and Mikhail Youzhny will certainly feel they can go deep this week. I have doubts about all four of their players and their ability to beat Haas this week and so I'll have a small interest in the home crowd getting a German Finalist for the second year in a row.
MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson @ 2.75 Coral (1 Unit)
Tommy Haas @ 9.00 Stan James (1 Unit E/W)
Tennis Outright Picks (July 8-14): 0-3, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Tennis Daily Picks (July 8-14): 17-7, + 17.94 Units (46 Units Staked, + 39% Yield)
Season 2013: + 35.22 Units (809.5 Units Staked, + 4.35% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
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