Thursday was a solid recovery day for the Tennis Picks with both choices returning as winners to get this week back into a position where a strong end can record another positive week to add to the season totals.
While the Tennis Picks recovered, I am still on the road to full fitness after a cold knocked me out over the last couple of days. That does mean the Tennis Picks on Friday will also not have any analysis to go with them, but I have put the research together while lying in bed and trying to stay warm.
Another good showing on Friday will turn this week right around after a poor Wednesday and that is the plan from the Picks made.
MY PICKS: Aljaz Bedene - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
David Goffin - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-4, - 2.16 Units (14 Units Staked, - 15.43% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Istanbul Picks. Show all posts
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Friday, 27 April 2018
Thursday, 23 July 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (July 23rd)
This has been a really terrible week for the picks as I have mixed the plain bad with the plain bad luck and that has led to a very poor couple of days.
It was more of the same on Wednesday as it seemed all the close games are going against me at the moment- I won't know how Thomaz Bellucci didn't cover against Christian Lindell after winning MORE points on the Swede's serve than Lindell did. Andrey Rublev lost a tight first set which eventually cost him the match in three sets, although the bigger game might have been the 0-40 he had on the Blaz Kavcic serve to get back on serve in that final set as the Russian lost five points in a row.
If I wanted proof that it hasn't been my week, I think it came in the Alexander Zverev match against Juan Monaco. While the final result was a comfortable win for Zverev, I remember looking at the match after nine games and noticing both players had won the exact same number of points.
What proof did I have that I am not getting the breaks? The fact that the player I had backed was still a break down after nine games despite having won the same number of points.
The bad picks are on me, but when you're getting next to no luck at the same time, it is never going to end well. I am not going to go chasing down the rabbit hole though for lost opportunities, but will only make picks that satisfy my criteria and look for the luck to swing back my way. Thursday is another full day of matches as the tournaments set up their Quarter Finals for Friday and I do hope things are going to land my way for the first time this week.
Jerzy Janowicz - 1.5 games v Steve Darcis: Both Jerzy Janowicz and Steve Darcis have been in Davis Cup action last weekend and both secured big wins for their nations. Neither player had too much trouble in the First Round in Bastad either and this could be another tight match between the players.
It is the third time that Darcis and Janowicz will meet on the main Tour although both of the previous matches took place in 2012. It is the big Pole who has won both previous matches, but their sole meeting on clay needed three sets to separate them and I think this is going to be a tight match too.
As big as Janowicz can play, he can be a little weak mentally when it comes to picking the right shots at the right time and that will give someone like Darcis a chance in this match. The Belgian player gets a decent pop out of the serve despite not being the biggest player on the Tour and he will be able to frustrate Janowicz by making him play more shots than perhaps he is going to be used to.
I won't lie though, I didn't think Darcis was as high as Number 67 in the World Rankings these days as he is a little inconsistent. Neither player has pulled up any trees on the clay courts can get a few cheaper points off the serve which can help him win this match 63, 36, 64.
Martin Klizan - 3.5 games v Andreas Haider-Maurer: Andreas Haider-Maurer made an effective return to the Tour after pulling out in his First Round match at Wimbledon and being back on the clay courts will suit the Austrian. He has played well on the clay courts this season and his win in the First Round means Haider-Maurer has won more main Tour matches this year than in his last four years combined.
The majority of his success on the surface came earlier in the year and Haider-Maurer is just 3-5 in his last eight matches on the clay. That includes beating Robin Haase in Davis Cup action last weekend and it is the kind of win that will give Haider-Maurer confidence to take into the tournament in Umag.
Martin Klizan won two rubbers last year in Davis Cup action himself as he helped Slovakia beat Romania and this is the surface on which he enjoys the majority of his success. Klizan has won a title on clay and reached the Semi Final of the big event in Barcelona too so returning to the surface off the grass probably suits him down to the ground.
You wouldn't be wrong in saying that both of these players are highly erratic in their play and you're not always sure what you're going to get. However, I think Klizan is the better clay court player and has won their sole previous match also on clay. After some twists and turns, I expect Klizan to come through 76, 63 in this one.
Borna Coric - 2.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: There might be some more well known Croatian players currently on the Tour, but the home fans have to rally around Borna Coric this week as the sole representative in the draw. No one should look down on Coric as the youngster looks like one destined for the top of the men's game once he has finished growing into his body, but the talent is undeniable.
Any young player on the long grind of the Tour are going to have ups and downs, but Coric has shown his potential with big wins over the likes of Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray over the last twelve months. Coric has a deep belief in his game, without going over the edge and irritating people, and I think he can get the better of this match up with Aljaz Bedene.
Bedene has been playing very well on the Challenger Tour with titles on the clay including in a Todi Challenger a couple of weeks ago. He should be highly confident he can get the job done on this surface and beat a Croatian in the First Round so Bedene shouldn't be intimidated by the atmosphere on the court.
However, Coric is the superior player and he has a Quarter Final and Semi Final appearance in clay courts at the main level this season. The Croatian also reached the Quarter Final here last year behind two impressive wins and I think Coric works his way through to a 75, 64 win.
Mona Barthel - 2.5 games v Kateryna Bondarenko: It has been a long time since Kateryna Bondarenko was a regular name in main Tour draws and it is no surprise that her Ranking has fallen outside of the top 100. For events like the one in Istanbul, Bondarenko has to qualify, but she has had arguably her best win for a long time by beating Venus Williams in the First Round.
Following up that win is going to be very difficult for Bondarenko through the emotions of having such a big win behind her, while she also has to deal with Mona Barthel who has turned a corner in terms of form. Barthel reached the Final in Bastad last week and came through her First Round match very easily this week too.
Barthel had lost 9 matches in a row since retiring half way through a match in Charleston, but the wins in Bastad will have restored some confidence. That has shown up by winning another match this week and the German beat Bondarenko when they last met three years ago.
It had looked like Barthel was going to get nowhere near the 23 wins she had on Tour last year, but turning a corner on form might have come at the right time. I expect Barthel to be a little too solid for Bondarenko who can't surely replicate the form she showed against Venus Williams. This should be a battle that Barthel can come through with a 64, 75 win.
Alize Cornet - 3.5 games v Kirsten Flipkens: There were no slip ups for Alize Cornet and Kirsten Flipkens in the First Round as they both came through in straight sets to meet in the Second Round. Alize Cornet has won four of their previous six matches including a three set win in Dubai earlier this season and I expect the Frenchwoman to be a little too good for Flipkens again.
It has been a couple of years since Flipkens had her career year on the Tour which included a run to the Semi Final at Wimbledon, but she has fallen down the Rankings since then. In fact you could add the wins from the last eighteen months together and you still wouldn't reach the total she had in 2013 alone and Flipkens has just struggled for consistency through this season.
The serve was always something of a liability, but I am not entirely convinced the movement hasn't deteriorated too, even by a slight amount. That means Flipkens is having a harder time closing the net and I think someone like Cornet can outlast her in the rallies that are likely to develop in this one.
Backing Cornet can be a rollercoaster as she never seems far away from losing focus and having a meltdown on the court. However, she has won four straight matches against Flipkens and the match up looks a good one for her, one I expect Cornet to win 64, 64.
Julia Goerges v Daria Kasatkina: These players met last week and I backed Julia Goerges to beat Daria Kasatkina despite the pedigree the latter has as a former French Open Junior Champion. There are other similarities to what I wrote last week as Kasatkina has once again come through her matches in very impressive fashion this week to build confidence.
Goerges was also a fairly comfortable winner in the First Round and I am still not convinced Kasatkina will be able to deal with the German's power if she is on her game. Perhaps the layers feel the match last week will have given Kasatkina an advantage now she knows what she is dealing with, but the match last week was much more in Goerges' favour than the final scoreline suggested.
It took Goerges some time to work out what she was seeing from Kasatkina, but the power was a clear advantage as her groundstrokes were the more penetrating. Kasatkina struggled to get into the Goerges service games after the early break of serve and I think the latter is going to frank her form from Bucharest.
The wind has been present in Bad Gastein which is going to affect the high risk tennis that Goerges plays, but I think she has to be the play at odds against to win this Second Round match.
Johanna Larsson v Karin Knapp: This is another match that is almost set as a pick 'em in the Second Round in Bad Gastein and I think Johanna Larsson can be backed to continue her hot form. She has lost her two previous matches against Karin Knapp including a heavy defeat on clay, but the Italian had to battle through a very difficult First Round match having just returned from an injury that forced her withdrawal at Wimbledon.
Larsson is the form player having won the title in Bastad last week and following that up with an impressive First Round win for the loss of just four games. Injury meant her European clay court season was restricted to the French Open, but the Swede reached the Semi Final in another clay court event earlier this season and clearly is very confident at the moment.
She isn't the only player in this match that has won a title on clay this season as Knapp did the same in Nuremberg prior to the French Open. However, that is a stand out tournament for the Italian who also reached the Semi Final there last year and Knapp is just 4-8 in clay court matches outside of that tournament over the last two seasons.
The head to head has to be a concern for Larsson who might struggle with the power Knapp can provide from the back of the court. Knapp also has a decent serve, but lack of matches of late might give Larsson the edge on current form and I will back her to move into another Quarter Final on clay this season.
MY PICKS: Jerzy Janowicz - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Martin Klizan - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Mona Barthel - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alize Cornet - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges @ 2.05 Betway (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-8, - 14.26 Units (18 Units Staked, - 79.22% Yield)
It was more of the same on Wednesday as it seemed all the close games are going against me at the moment- I won't know how Thomaz Bellucci didn't cover against Christian Lindell after winning MORE points on the Swede's serve than Lindell did. Andrey Rublev lost a tight first set which eventually cost him the match in three sets, although the bigger game might have been the 0-40 he had on the Blaz Kavcic serve to get back on serve in that final set as the Russian lost five points in a row.
If I wanted proof that it hasn't been my week, I think it came in the Alexander Zverev match against Juan Monaco. While the final result was a comfortable win for Zverev, I remember looking at the match after nine games and noticing both players had won the exact same number of points.
What proof did I have that I am not getting the breaks? The fact that the player I had backed was still a break down after nine games despite having won the same number of points.
The bad picks are on me, but when you're getting next to no luck at the same time, it is never going to end well. I am not going to go chasing down the rabbit hole though for lost opportunities, but will only make picks that satisfy my criteria and look for the luck to swing back my way. Thursday is another full day of matches as the tournaments set up their Quarter Finals for Friday and I do hope things are going to land my way for the first time this week.
Jerzy Janowicz - 1.5 games v Steve Darcis: Both Jerzy Janowicz and Steve Darcis have been in Davis Cup action last weekend and both secured big wins for their nations. Neither player had too much trouble in the First Round in Bastad either and this could be another tight match between the players.
It is the third time that Darcis and Janowicz will meet on the main Tour although both of the previous matches took place in 2012. It is the big Pole who has won both previous matches, but their sole meeting on clay needed three sets to separate them and I think this is going to be a tight match too.
As big as Janowicz can play, he can be a little weak mentally when it comes to picking the right shots at the right time and that will give someone like Darcis a chance in this match. The Belgian player gets a decent pop out of the serve despite not being the biggest player on the Tour and he will be able to frustrate Janowicz by making him play more shots than perhaps he is going to be used to.
I won't lie though, I didn't think Darcis was as high as Number 67 in the World Rankings these days as he is a little inconsistent. Neither player has pulled up any trees on the clay courts can get a few cheaper points off the serve which can help him win this match 63, 36, 64.
Martin Klizan - 3.5 games v Andreas Haider-Maurer: Andreas Haider-Maurer made an effective return to the Tour after pulling out in his First Round match at Wimbledon and being back on the clay courts will suit the Austrian. He has played well on the clay courts this season and his win in the First Round means Haider-Maurer has won more main Tour matches this year than in his last four years combined.
The majority of his success on the surface came earlier in the year and Haider-Maurer is just 3-5 in his last eight matches on the clay. That includes beating Robin Haase in Davis Cup action last weekend and it is the kind of win that will give Haider-Maurer confidence to take into the tournament in Umag.
Martin Klizan won two rubbers last year in Davis Cup action himself as he helped Slovakia beat Romania and this is the surface on which he enjoys the majority of his success. Klizan has won a title on clay and reached the Semi Final of the big event in Barcelona too so returning to the surface off the grass probably suits him down to the ground.
You wouldn't be wrong in saying that both of these players are highly erratic in their play and you're not always sure what you're going to get. However, I think Klizan is the better clay court player and has won their sole previous match also on clay. After some twists and turns, I expect Klizan to come through 76, 63 in this one.
Borna Coric - 2.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: There might be some more well known Croatian players currently on the Tour, but the home fans have to rally around Borna Coric this week as the sole representative in the draw. No one should look down on Coric as the youngster looks like one destined for the top of the men's game once he has finished growing into his body, but the talent is undeniable.
Any young player on the long grind of the Tour are going to have ups and downs, but Coric has shown his potential with big wins over the likes of Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray over the last twelve months. Coric has a deep belief in his game, without going over the edge and irritating people, and I think he can get the better of this match up with Aljaz Bedene.
Bedene has been playing very well on the Challenger Tour with titles on the clay including in a Todi Challenger a couple of weeks ago. He should be highly confident he can get the job done on this surface and beat a Croatian in the First Round so Bedene shouldn't be intimidated by the atmosphere on the court.
However, Coric is the superior player and he has a Quarter Final and Semi Final appearance in clay courts at the main level this season. The Croatian also reached the Quarter Final here last year behind two impressive wins and I think Coric works his way through to a 75, 64 win.
Mona Barthel - 2.5 games v Kateryna Bondarenko: It has been a long time since Kateryna Bondarenko was a regular name in main Tour draws and it is no surprise that her Ranking has fallen outside of the top 100. For events like the one in Istanbul, Bondarenko has to qualify, but she has had arguably her best win for a long time by beating Venus Williams in the First Round.
Following up that win is going to be very difficult for Bondarenko through the emotions of having such a big win behind her, while she also has to deal with Mona Barthel who has turned a corner in terms of form. Barthel reached the Final in Bastad last week and came through her First Round match very easily this week too.
Barthel had lost 9 matches in a row since retiring half way through a match in Charleston, but the wins in Bastad will have restored some confidence. That has shown up by winning another match this week and the German beat Bondarenko when they last met three years ago.
It had looked like Barthel was going to get nowhere near the 23 wins she had on Tour last year, but turning a corner on form might have come at the right time. I expect Barthel to be a little too solid for Bondarenko who can't surely replicate the form she showed against Venus Williams. This should be a battle that Barthel can come through with a 64, 75 win.
Alize Cornet - 3.5 games v Kirsten Flipkens: There were no slip ups for Alize Cornet and Kirsten Flipkens in the First Round as they both came through in straight sets to meet in the Second Round. Alize Cornet has won four of their previous six matches including a three set win in Dubai earlier this season and I expect the Frenchwoman to be a little too good for Flipkens again.
It has been a couple of years since Flipkens had her career year on the Tour which included a run to the Semi Final at Wimbledon, but she has fallen down the Rankings since then. In fact you could add the wins from the last eighteen months together and you still wouldn't reach the total she had in 2013 alone and Flipkens has just struggled for consistency through this season.
The serve was always something of a liability, but I am not entirely convinced the movement hasn't deteriorated too, even by a slight amount. That means Flipkens is having a harder time closing the net and I think someone like Cornet can outlast her in the rallies that are likely to develop in this one.
Backing Cornet can be a rollercoaster as she never seems far away from losing focus and having a meltdown on the court. However, she has won four straight matches against Flipkens and the match up looks a good one for her, one I expect Cornet to win 64, 64.
Julia Goerges v Daria Kasatkina: These players met last week and I backed Julia Goerges to beat Daria Kasatkina despite the pedigree the latter has as a former French Open Junior Champion. There are other similarities to what I wrote last week as Kasatkina has once again come through her matches in very impressive fashion this week to build confidence.
Goerges was also a fairly comfortable winner in the First Round and I am still not convinced Kasatkina will be able to deal with the German's power if she is on her game. Perhaps the layers feel the match last week will have given Kasatkina an advantage now she knows what she is dealing with, but the match last week was much more in Goerges' favour than the final scoreline suggested.
It took Goerges some time to work out what she was seeing from Kasatkina, but the power was a clear advantage as her groundstrokes were the more penetrating. Kasatkina struggled to get into the Goerges service games after the early break of serve and I think the latter is going to frank her form from Bucharest.
The wind has been present in Bad Gastein which is going to affect the high risk tennis that Goerges plays, but I think she has to be the play at odds against to win this Second Round match.
Johanna Larsson v Karin Knapp: This is another match that is almost set as a pick 'em in the Second Round in Bad Gastein and I think Johanna Larsson can be backed to continue her hot form. She has lost her two previous matches against Karin Knapp including a heavy defeat on clay, but the Italian had to battle through a very difficult First Round match having just returned from an injury that forced her withdrawal at Wimbledon.
Larsson is the form player having won the title in Bastad last week and following that up with an impressive First Round win for the loss of just four games. Injury meant her European clay court season was restricted to the French Open, but the Swede reached the Semi Final in another clay court event earlier this season and clearly is very confident at the moment.
She isn't the only player in this match that has won a title on clay this season as Knapp did the same in Nuremberg prior to the French Open. However, that is a stand out tournament for the Italian who also reached the Semi Final there last year and Knapp is just 4-8 in clay court matches outside of that tournament over the last two seasons.
The head to head has to be a concern for Larsson who might struggle with the power Knapp can provide from the back of the court. Knapp also has a decent serve, but lack of matches of late might give Larsson the edge on current form and I will back her to move into another Quarter Final on clay this season.
MY PICKS: Jerzy Janowicz - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Martin Klizan - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Mona Barthel - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alize Cornet - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges @ 2.05 Betway (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-8, - 14.26 Units (18 Units Staked, - 79.22% Yield)
Saturday, 19 July 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (July 19th)
Leonardo Mayer + 2.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: I was surprised with the ease in which Philipp Kohlschreiber beat Lukas Rosol in the Quarter Final on Friday, but I expect Leonardo Mayer to give the home town favourite more problems.
It has been a good season for Mayer who is on course to surpass the number of wins he had on the main Tour over the last three years in 2014. Mayer has performed well on the clay courts which is expected of a South American and he has won the two previous meetings between these players which have both come on the surface.
Of course, Kohlschreiber will have a confidence boost by playing at home to turn that record around, but Mayer has a decent serve and won't mind getting involved in the longer rallies.
I would be looking for Mayer to win at least one set in this match which could give him every chance to get over the line with the games in hand.
David Ferrer - 5.5 games v Alexander Zverev: David Ferrer crushed Pablo Andujar in the Quarter Final played on Friday and he admitted that it is by far the best he has played this week to this point. I would argue that it was Ferrer's best performance in over two months as he has been struggling with his health.
Now he has to be careful as he takes on 17 year old Alexander Zverev who has found some very good form despite not winning a match on the main Tour before this week. He did recently win a Challenger on the clay, but this is the biggest test he has faced so far against a player that has spent a lot of time in the top five of the World Rankings.
The health of Ferrer has been a concern for me all week, but I think he can build upon his win over Andujar. As well as Zverev has done to come through the matches, he has given his opponents at least a look at his service games and I do expect Ferrer to be able to create more break point chances and actually dominate the longer rallies.
Ferrer will also have to serve well because Zverev isn't showing any nerves this week and really been in control of his emotions, but I do think the veteran gives the young player a lesson in a 64, 62 win.
Chanelle Scheepers v Jana Cepelova: She may be lower in the World Rankings and also giving up nine years in terms of age, but I do think Chanelle Scheepers can get the better of Jana Cepelova in an almost pick 'em contest.
The South African has had to battle through two Rounds in Bastad to reach this Semi Final, but she has at least shown more consistent form than Cepelova in recent weeks. Before her three wins here, Cepelova had lost seven matches in a row.
However, it does have to be remembered that Cepelova probably prefers the clay courts far more than Scheepers, although the latter has won ten of her thirteen matches this year on this surface.
Added belief from a run in Bad Gastein should help Scheepers come through the tough moments in perhaps a third straight three set win.
Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 games v Kristina Mladenovic: Caroline Wozniacki's former boyfriend may be earning all the headlines with his performance in The Open at the moment, but the Dane can move into a Final of her own by winning this match.
Wozniacki had to come through a tough Quarter Final, but she has been playing pretty well this week on the hard courts of Istanbul. She will also have a little more confidence having beaten Kristina Mladenovic earlier this year on the hard courts.
The Frenchwoman hasn't had the best of seasons to this point, but confidence can quickly turn things around and that has to be in a good place for Mladenovic. However, I think she could be frustrated by the defensive qualities of Wozniacki and I am not convinced Mladenovic has the calmness to keep in rallies if she is being forced to play extra shots consistently.
The match earlier this season ended with a 63, 64 win for Wozniacki, but she has been serving well so far this week and that may see her pick up the win with a slightly wider margin than that match in Monterrey.
Bernard Tomic - 3.5 games v Victor Estrella: There have been some strange results this week, but I really didn't see the Victor Estrella win over Richard Gasquet coming.
These are actually the first hard court wins of the season for Estrella on the main Tour, but he han't even set the Challenger circuit alight to suggest he was capable of reaching a Semi Final on the surface in an ATP 250 event.
It was a poor serving display for Gasquet to be broken three times in the Quarter Final, but Bernard Tomic has used his serve to good effect this week and I think the Australian can pick up more vital Ranking points. After some of the success he has had on the Tour, it is strange to see Tomic outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings at this point of his career.
If Tomic can look after that side of his game in this Semi Final, I would expect he can grind out chances on the Estella serve and earn a measure of revenge for a qualifier defeat to the same player in Rome earlier this season. The surface should favour Tomic more this time and I like him to win 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Leonardo Mayer + 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Chanelle Scheepers @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Bernard Tomic - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 10-12, - 4.40 Units (44 Units Staked, - 10% Yield)
It has been a good season for Mayer who is on course to surpass the number of wins he had on the main Tour over the last three years in 2014. Mayer has performed well on the clay courts which is expected of a South American and he has won the two previous meetings between these players which have both come on the surface.
Of course, Kohlschreiber will have a confidence boost by playing at home to turn that record around, but Mayer has a decent serve and won't mind getting involved in the longer rallies.
I would be looking for Mayer to win at least one set in this match which could give him every chance to get over the line with the games in hand.
David Ferrer - 5.5 games v Alexander Zverev: David Ferrer crushed Pablo Andujar in the Quarter Final played on Friday and he admitted that it is by far the best he has played this week to this point. I would argue that it was Ferrer's best performance in over two months as he has been struggling with his health.
Now he has to be careful as he takes on 17 year old Alexander Zverev who has found some very good form despite not winning a match on the main Tour before this week. He did recently win a Challenger on the clay, but this is the biggest test he has faced so far against a player that has spent a lot of time in the top five of the World Rankings.
The health of Ferrer has been a concern for me all week, but I think he can build upon his win over Andujar. As well as Zverev has done to come through the matches, he has given his opponents at least a look at his service games and I do expect Ferrer to be able to create more break point chances and actually dominate the longer rallies.
Ferrer will also have to serve well because Zverev isn't showing any nerves this week and really been in control of his emotions, but I do think the veteran gives the young player a lesson in a 64, 62 win.
Chanelle Scheepers v Jana Cepelova: She may be lower in the World Rankings and also giving up nine years in terms of age, but I do think Chanelle Scheepers can get the better of Jana Cepelova in an almost pick 'em contest.
The South African has had to battle through two Rounds in Bastad to reach this Semi Final, but she has at least shown more consistent form than Cepelova in recent weeks. Before her three wins here, Cepelova had lost seven matches in a row.
However, it does have to be remembered that Cepelova probably prefers the clay courts far more than Scheepers, although the latter has won ten of her thirteen matches this year on this surface.
Added belief from a run in Bad Gastein should help Scheepers come through the tough moments in perhaps a third straight three set win.
Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 games v Kristina Mladenovic: Caroline Wozniacki's former boyfriend may be earning all the headlines with his performance in The Open at the moment, but the Dane can move into a Final of her own by winning this match.
Wozniacki had to come through a tough Quarter Final, but she has been playing pretty well this week on the hard courts of Istanbul. She will also have a little more confidence having beaten Kristina Mladenovic earlier this year on the hard courts.
The Frenchwoman hasn't had the best of seasons to this point, but confidence can quickly turn things around and that has to be in a good place for Mladenovic. However, I think she could be frustrated by the defensive qualities of Wozniacki and I am not convinced Mladenovic has the calmness to keep in rallies if she is being forced to play extra shots consistently.
The match earlier this season ended with a 63, 64 win for Wozniacki, but she has been serving well so far this week and that may see her pick up the win with a slightly wider margin than that match in Monterrey.
Bernard Tomic - 3.5 games v Victor Estrella: There have been some strange results this week, but I really didn't see the Victor Estrella win over Richard Gasquet coming.
These are actually the first hard court wins of the season for Estrella on the main Tour, but he han't even set the Challenger circuit alight to suggest he was capable of reaching a Semi Final on the surface in an ATP 250 event.
It was a poor serving display for Gasquet to be broken three times in the Quarter Final, but Bernard Tomic has used his serve to good effect this week and I think the Australian can pick up more vital Ranking points. After some of the success he has had on the Tour, it is strange to see Tomic outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings at this point of his career.
If Tomic can look after that side of his game in this Semi Final, I would expect he can grind out chances on the Estella serve and earn a measure of revenge for a qualifier defeat to the same player in Rome earlier this season. The surface should favour Tomic more this time and I like him to win 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Leonardo Mayer + 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Chanelle Scheepers @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Bernard Tomic - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 10-12, - 4.40 Units (44 Units Staked, - 10% Yield)
Friday, 18 July 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (July 18th)
Lukas Rosol + 3.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: The last two times these players have met have both come on the clay and both of those matches have also been very competitive with each player winning one.
I am expecting this Quarter Final to have a similar feel and I was surprised that Lukas Rosol has been given as many games as this by a number of layers. He has the big serve that can cause Philipp Kohlschreiber some problems as proven when they met in Stuttgart last week and Rosol has had enough wins in the last two weeks to have built confidence to a high level.
The first serve will be all important for Rosol if he is to win this match and I also hope it is working well enough to remain competitive through the match.
Both players have played well enough this week to think this is going to go at least three sets and Rosol has performed to a level in the last two weeks that makes these games valuable in my opinion, even if he doesn't make it through to the Semi Final.
Roberta Vinci - 3.5 games v Karumi Nara: 2014 has been a contrast for these two players as Roberta Vinci has struggled while Karumi Nara is going to record a career-high wins in a single season on the main Tour.
The Vinci 13 wins and 18 losses on the season have been a real surprise considering she has almost 100 wins when combining 2012 and 2013 (94 wins), but there have been shoots of recovery over the last two weeks.
Vinci reached the Final in Bucharest before coming up short against Simona Halep and she has a couple of wins under her belt here which should improve confidence. Her style of play should match up well against Nara who is another player that could struggle with the number of slices she sees.
Nara has played well on the hard courts all season and she should be making some leaps up the Rankings ahead of the US Open, where she could certainly be a seeded player. However, Nara doesn't have a huge shot in her locker and I can see the veteran Italian using some of the knowledge she has gained to beat her 64, 64.
Richard Gasquet - 5.5 games v Victor Estrella: I have tipped Richard Gasquet to win the tournament in Bogota this week and he got off to a decent start with a straight sets victory over Samuel Groth.
It wasn't surprising that the match needed tie-breaks to settle it with the conditions in Bogota, but I am expecting Gasquet to have an 'easier' time against Victor Estrella.
If Estrella serves well, he could make it competitive as the ball flies in Bogota, but I also think he doesn't have the biggest serve and Gasquet should be able to get enough balls back in play and win the majority of the longer rallies.
There is a clear difference in terms of quality on show and I do think Gasquet can pick up a 64, 62 win.
MY PICKS: Lukas Rosol + 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roberta Vinci - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 5.5 Games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Picks: 9-10, - 2.06 Units (38 Units Staked, - 5.42% Yield)
I am expecting this Quarter Final to have a similar feel and I was surprised that Lukas Rosol has been given as many games as this by a number of layers. He has the big serve that can cause Philipp Kohlschreiber some problems as proven when they met in Stuttgart last week and Rosol has had enough wins in the last two weeks to have built confidence to a high level.
The first serve will be all important for Rosol if he is to win this match and I also hope it is working well enough to remain competitive through the match.
Both players have played well enough this week to think this is going to go at least three sets and Rosol has performed to a level in the last two weeks that makes these games valuable in my opinion, even if he doesn't make it through to the Semi Final.
Roberta Vinci - 3.5 games v Karumi Nara: 2014 has been a contrast for these two players as Roberta Vinci has struggled while Karumi Nara is going to record a career-high wins in a single season on the main Tour.
The Vinci 13 wins and 18 losses on the season have been a real surprise considering she has almost 100 wins when combining 2012 and 2013 (94 wins), but there have been shoots of recovery over the last two weeks.
Vinci reached the Final in Bucharest before coming up short against Simona Halep and she has a couple of wins under her belt here which should improve confidence. Her style of play should match up well against Nara who is another player that could struggle with the number of slices she sees.
Nara has played well on the hard courts all season and she should be making some leaps up the Rankings ahead of the US Open, where she could certainly be a seeded player. However, Nara doesn't have a huge shot in her locker and I can see the veteran Italian using some of the knowledge she has gained to beat her 64, 64.
Richard Gasquet - 5.5 games v Victor Estrella: I have tipped Richard Gasquet to win the tournament in Bogota this week and he got off to a decent start with a straight sets victory over Samuel Groth.
It wasn't surprising that the match needed tie-breaks to settle it with the conditions in Bogota, but I am expecting Gasquet to have an 'easier' time against Victor Estrella.
If Estrella serves well, he could make it competitive as the ball flies in Bogota, but I also think he doesn't have the biggest serve and Gasquet should be able to get enough balls back in play and win the majority of the longer rallies.
There is a clear difference in terms of quality on show and I do think Gasquet can pick up a 64, 62 win.
MY PICKS: Lukas Rosol + 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roberta Vinci - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 5.5 Games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Picks: 9-10, - 2.06 Units (38 Units Staked, - 5.42% Yield)
Thursday, 17 July 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (July 17th)
Dominic Thiem - 1.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: Dominic Thiem has openly admitted that he needs to get to grips on grass court tournaments, but being back on the clay has once again shown the potential this youngster has.
He has come through two Rounds in Hamburg and can start making serious moves up the Rankings if he can see off Leonardo Mayer in this Third Round match, although it has to be said that this will be a tough match for Thiem.
When they met in Madrid earlier this season, Thiem had to come from a set down to beat Mayer, although it could have been a different story if the latter had taken his limited chances to break serve.
Both will be looking for the first serve percentage points won to be the key to their success and I do respect how well Mayer has played through the first seven months of 2014. The Argentinian has to be full of confidence, but Thiem has a real belief in his own ability and I like him to come through in three tough sets.
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 games v Tobias Kamke: Albert Einstein said it is an indication of madness when you do the same thing over and over again and expect different results.
Having backed the opponents of Tobias Kamke twice already this week, I am going back to the well to go against the German player who has shown little clay court form in the past. Alexandr Dolgopolov is not the most trust worthy player to go against Kamke, but the Ukrainian seems to be showing a lot more commitment to his tennis these days.
That has paid off with some big wins through 2014 and Dolgopolov is close to returning to the World Top 20 while recording a strong win in his first match in Hamburg.
Dolgopolov has performed well on the clay courts in his career including previously winning a Tour title on the surface. If he can serve well, I would expect his variation off the ground to cause problems for Kamke and result in a 76, 63 win.
Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: Two players from Serbia ups the ante for both Dusan Lajovic and Filip Krajinovic who can boost their Ranking with the points they can earn by getting into the Quarter Final of an ATP 500 event.
Lajovic has been showing improvements in his game, especially on the clay courts where he reached the Fourth Round at the French Open and the Quarter Final in Bastad last week. He has had two more impressive wins this week and might catch Filip Krajinovic who is trying to back up a big win over Fabio Fognini.
The older of the two players has also had a lot more experience playing at this level and those can be factored in on the side of Lajovic in this match.
There has been a fair amount of success earned by Krajinovic on the Challenger Tour on clay, but I think he might just have one too many factors going against him and Lajovic should move through.
Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 games v Alexander Zverev: I was surprised by the way Alexander Zverev had control of his emotions in his straight sets win over Mikhail Youzhny in the Second Round, especially when put under pressure.
It was not what I expected from a 17 year old who has not had a lot of experience at this level and I think it might be asking a lot for Zverev to continue his run when he comes up against Santiago Giraldo.
The Colombian has had a day to prepare for this match following his win over Benoit Paire and he has the power and the performances on clay to give Zverev all he can handle. It is also clear that the youngster is very high on confidence and playing with plenty of belief so the key for Giraldo will be getting the first set in the bag.
I think he can do that and that may have Zverev feeling his exploits from the week so far and Giraldo could come up with a 75, 64 win.
Kaia Kanepi - 4.5 games v Richel Hogenkamp: There is something a little strange in Richel Hogenkamp qualifying for Bastad for the second year in a row, but it has been rare to see her attempt to get into tournaments like this over the past twelve months.
Hogenkamp must enjoy the conditions in this part of Sweden, but Kaia Kanepi has been in very strong form over the last month and proved her determination by coming back from the edge of the cliff to beat Johanna Larsson.
As I said when backing Kanepi to beat Larsson, tiredness may be a factor but she did get a day to rest for this match and that could pave the way for another win on the red dirt.
She has generally competed at a much higher level than Hogenkamp and I think that experience and the power that Kanepi has will lead to a 64, 63 win.
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 games v Shahar Peer: I haven't seen a lot of Karolina Pliskova, but I have seen a player with potential if she can keep hold of the unforced errors that can blight her game. She has a decent serve and return and I would expect Pliskova to move up from her current Ranking of 47.
She should prove to have a little too much in the locker for Shahar Peer who has been having worse and worse years since reaching 48 wins in the 2010 season. It is likely that Peer will buck that trend this season with four more wins needed to reach the 12 win mark she had last season, but it is clear that she is a player in real danger of falling out of the top 100 in the World Rankings.
Peer has only been beyond the Second Round in four tournaments over the last twelve months and I think Pliskova will be dictating this match.
As long as Pliskova can control the unforced error count, I would expect her to be too good for Peer and win this 63, 63.
Ivo Karlovic - 2.5 games v Dudi Sela: Ivo Karlovic improved to 6-0 against Dudi Sela last week and he continues to dominate the sets too with 14 of the last 15 won by the big man including 12 in a row.
As well as Dudi Sela competes, the Karlovic serve poses too many problems for the short, relatively speaking, Sela, while his own game can allow opportunities for players to break his own serve.
That goes for even a limited returner like Karlovic who forces enough balls back in play without an overbearing serve to return and then Sela has to control his errors to hold serve.
I've said Sela struggles with his errors at times and Karlovic should prove too strong again as long as his run to the Final in Newport hasn't affected him adversely, even with three days rest since that Final.
MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Kaia Kanepi - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-6, + 1.54 Units (26 Units Staked, + 5.92% Yield)
He has come through two Rounds in Hamburg and can start making serious moves up the Rankings if he can see off Leonardo Mayer in this Third Round match, although it has to be said that this will be a tough match for Thiem.
When they met in Madrid earlier this season, Thiem had to come from a set down to beat Mayer, although it could have been a different story if the latter had taken his limited chances to break serve.
Both will be looking for the first serve percentage points won to be the key to their success and I do respect how well Mayer has played through the first seven months of 2014. The Argentinian has to be full of confidence, but Thiem has a real belief in his own ability and I like him to come through in three tough sets.
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 games v Tobias Kamke: Albert Einstein said it is an indication of madness when you do the same thing over and over again and expect different results.
Having backed the opponents of Tobias Kamke twice already this week, I am going back to the well to go against the German player who has shown little clay court form in the past. Alexandr Dolgopolov is not the most trust worthy player to go against Kamke, but the Ukrainian seems to be showing a lot more commitment to his tennis these days.
That has paid off with some big wins through 2014 and Dolgopolov is close to returning to the World Top 20 while recording a strong win in his first match in Hamburg.
Dolgopolov has performed well on the clay courts in his career including previously winning a Tour title on the surface. If he can serve well, I would expect his variation off the ground to cause problems for Kamke and result in a 76, 63 win.
Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: Two players from Serbia ups the ante for both Dusan Lajovic and Filip Krajinovic who can boost their Ranking with the points they can earn by getting into the Quarter Final of an ATP 500 event.
Lajovic has been showing improvements in his game, especially on the clay courts where he reached the Fourth Round at the French Open and the Quarter Final in Bastad last week. He has had two more impressive wins this week and might catch Filip Krajinovic who is trying to back up a big win over Fabio Fognini.
The older of the two players has also had a lot more experience playing at this level and those can be factored in on the side of Lajovic in this match.
There has been a fair amount of success earned by Krajinovic on the Challenger Tour on clay, but I think he might just have one too many factors going against him and Lajovic should move through.
Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 games v Alexander Zverev: I was surprised by the way Alexander Zverev had control of his emotions in his straight sets win over Mikhail Youzhny in the Second Round, especially when put under pressure.
It was not what I expected from a 17 year old who has not had a lot of experience at this level and I think it might be asking a lot for Zverev to continue his run when he comes up against Santiago Giraldo.
The Colombian has had a day to prepare for this match following his win over Benoit Paire and he has the power and the performances on clay to give Zverev all he can handle. It is also clear that the youngster is very high on confidence and playing with plenty of belief so the key for Giraldo will be getting the first set in the bag.
I think he can do that and that may have Zverev feeling his exploits from the week so far and Giraldo could come up with a 75, 64 win.
Kaia Kanepi - 4.5 games v Richel Hogenkamp: There is something a little strange in Richel Hogenkamp qualifying for Bastad for the second year in a row, but it has been rare to see her attempt to get into tournaments like this over the past twelve months.
Hogenkamp must enjoy the conditions in this part of Sweden, but Kaia Kanepi has been in very strong form over the last month and proved her determination by coming back from the edge of the cliff to beat Johanna Larsson.
As I said when backing Kanepi to beat Larsson, tiredness may be a factor but she did get a day to rest for this match and that could pave the way for another win on the red dirt.
She has generally competed at a much higher level than Hogenkamp and I think that experience and the power that Kanepi has will lead to a 64, 63 win.
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 games v Shahar Peer: I haven't seen a lot of Karolina Pliskova, but I have seen a player with potential if she can keep hold of the unforced errors that can blight her game. She has a decent serve and return and I would expect Pliskova to move up from her current Ranking of 47.
She should prove to have a little too much in the locker for Shahar Peer who has been having worse and worse years since reaching 48 wins in the 2010 season. It is likely that Peer will buck that trend this season with four more wins needed to reach the 12 win mark she had last season, but it is clear that she is a player in real danger of falling out of the top 100 in the World Rankings.
Peer has only been beyond the Second Round in four tournaments over the last twelve months and I think Pliskova will be dictating this match.
As long as Pliskova can control the unforced error count, I would expect her to be too good for Peer and win this 63, 63.
Ivo Karlovic - 2.5 games v Dudi Sela: Ivo Karlovic improved to 6-0 against Dudi Sela last week and he continues to dominate the sets too with 14 of the last 15 won by the big man including 12 in a row.
As well as Dudi Sela competes, the Karlovic serve poses too many problems for the short, relatively speaking, Sela, while his own game can allow opportunities for players to break his own serve.
That goes for even a limited returner like Karlovic who forces enough balls back in play without an overbearing serve to return and then Sela has to control his errors to hold serve.
I've said Sela struggles with his errors at times and Karlovic should prove too strong again as long as his run to the Final in Newport hasn't affected him adversely, even with three days rest since that Final.
MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Kaia Kanepi - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-6, + 1.54 Units (26 Units Staked, + 5.92% Yield)
Wednesday, 16 July 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (July 16th)
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 games v Tobias Kamke: Twelve months ago, Federico Delbonis qualified for this tournament and really announced himself on the main Tour by reaching the Final at the event, including beating Roger Federer in the Semi Final.
Since then, Delbonis has been moving up the Rankings and picked up a title in Sao Paolo earlier this season, while his run to the Quarter Final in Stuttgart last week shows his capabilities on the clay courts.
It won't be an easy match against Tobias Kamke who will be supported by the home crowd, but I do think Delbonis will be able to set up the easier points from the serve and the Argentinian is very comfortable on the clay.
Out of the two players, Delbonis has a clear edge on the surface and I think he can win this match 64, 64 as long as he isn't overly burdened by the points he is defending this week.
Lukas Rosol - 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: Both of these players are coming off successful weeks on the Tour with Lukas Rosol reaching the Final in Stuttgart and Joao Sousa doing the same in Bastad, while both also failed to win the title.
Both players are comfortable on the clay, but I would perhaps argue that Sousa is more consistent... So why have I picked Lukas Rosol to win and cover this spread? That is because I think the Czech player has a higher ceiling than Sousa if he is in form.
He didn't play well against Julian Reister in the First Round on Tuesday, but he played the big points well enough and that helped Rosol take a tight first set. His serve should be more effective than it was yesterday, and that could put Sousa under some pressure.
The match may also come down to fitness as both have a lot of tennis in their legs from last week, but I think Rosol can find a 76, 64 win in this one.
Andreas Seppi v Juan Monaco: The one factor that has Andreas Seppi as the underdog in this match as far as I am concerned is the lack of tennis he has played since Wimbledon and the move from the grass back onto the clay courts being an issue for the layers.
The Italian might not have the best serve in the world, but that shot can be hidden to some extent on the slower clay courts and Seppi will feel he can beat Juan Monaco again after doing that in straight sets at the French Open two months ago.
He is also facing a player in Monaco who has struggled for form in 2014, even if he had an impressive win in the First Round. Monaco has to work hard for the majority of his points and his consistency hasn't reached the levels of previous years.
Both players will have opportunities to break serve, but I think Seppi can make it three wins from four matches on clay against Monaco.
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 games v Alexander Zverev: Alexander Zverev became the youngest player to win an ATP 500 Tour match since Grigor Dimitrov in 2009 when he comfortably beat Robin Haase in the First Round in Hamburg.
There is no doubt that Zverev is playing with a lot of confidence at the moment after a close loss to Lukas Rosol last week and having won a Challenger tournament on the clay a couple of weeks ago, but facing Mikhail Youzhny gives him a veteran challenge.
Youzhny is on the downhill path in his career as he reaches the final throes and he is having a tougher 2014 season. He did reach the Semi Final in Stuttgart last week which is a rare successful week in 2014 for Youzhny and I think his know-how on the court may give the younger man too many problems to deal with.
It'll be a competitive match but I do think Youzhny finds a 75, 64 win.
Klara Koukalova - 3.5 games v Kristina Mladenovic: After a poor start to her match with Donna Vekic, Klara Koukalova took control of the last two sets to book her place in the Second Round in Istanbul.
Koukalova has had a strong season on the hard courts to this point and may consider herself as a dangerous player in the coming weeks when the Tour moves to North America. Her serve can be a weakness, but I do think Koukalova gets the better of the young Frenchwoman Kristina Mladenovic.
Mladenovic hasn't had the same level of success on the hard courts over the last two years as her opponent and she has found the main Tour level a little tough to negotiate. Her win over Na Li at the French Open in the First Round earned Mladenovic some headlines back home, but I think she will struggle with the veteran Koukalova who has the match playing experience to win matches like this.
As long as Koukalova doesn't serve as poorly throughout the match as she started off against Vekic, I would expect this to be a more routine 64, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Federico Delbonis - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lukas Rosol - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Klara Koukalova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-3, + 3.44 Units (16 Units Staked, + 21.5% Yield)
Since then, Delbonis has been moving up the Rankings and picked up a title in Sao Paolo earlier this season, while his run to the Quarter Final in Stuttgart last week shows his capabilities on the clay courts.
It won't be an easy match against Tobias Kamke who will be supported by the home crowd, but I do think Delbonis will be able to set up the easier points from the serve and the Argentinian is very comfortable on the clay.
Out of the two players, Delbonis has a clear edge on the surface and I think he can win this match 64, 64 as long as he isn't overly burdened by the points he is defending this week.
Lukas Rosol - 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: Both of these players are coming off successful weeks on the Tour with Lukas Rosol reaching the Final in Stuttgart and Joao Sousa doing the same in Bastad, while both also failed to win the title.
Both players are comfortable on the clay, but I would perhaps argue that Sousa is more consistent... So why have I picked Lukas Rosol to win and cover this spread? That is because I think the Czech player has a higher ceiling than Sousa if he is in form.
He didn't play well against Julian Reister in the First Round on Tuesday, but he played the big points well enough and that helped Rosol take a tight first set. His serve should be more effective than it was yesterday, and that could put Sousa under some pressure.
The match may also come down to fitness as both have a lot of tennis in their legs from last week, but I think Rosol can find a 76, 64 win in this one.
Andreas Seppi v Juan Monaco: The one factor that has Andreas Seppi as the underdog in this match as far as I am concerned is the lack of tennis he has played since Wimbledon and the move from the grass back onto the clay courts being an issue for the layers.
The Italian might not have the best serve in the world, but that shot can be hidden to some extent on the slower clay courts and Seppi will feel he can beat Juan Monaco again after doing that in straight sets at the French Open two months ago.
He is also facing a player in Monaco who has struggled for form in 2014, even if he had an impressive win in the First Round. Monaco has to work hard for the majority of his points and his consistency hasn't reached the levels of previous years.
Both players will have opportunities to break serve, but I think Seppi can make it three wins from four matches on clay against Monaco.
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 games v Alexander Zverev: Alexander Zverev became the youngest player to win an ATP 500 Tour match since Grigor Dimitrov in 2009 when he comfortably beat Robin Haase in the First Round in Hamburg.
There is no doubt that Zverev is playing with a lot of confidence at the moment after a close loss to Lukas Rosol last week and having won a Challenger tournament on the clay a couple of weeks ago, but facing Mikhail Youzhny gives him a veteran challenge.
Youzhny is on the downhill path in his career as he reaches the final throes and he is having a tougher 2014 season. He did reach the Semi Final in Stuttgart last week which is a rare successful week in 2014 for Youzhny and I think his know-how on the court may give the younger man too many problems to deal with.
It'll be a competitive match but I do think Youzhny finds a 75, 64 win.
Klara Koukalova - 3.5 games v Kristina Mladenovic: After a poor start to her match with Donna Vekic, Klara Koukalova took control of the last two sets to book her place in the Second Round in Istanbul.
Koukalova has had a strong season on the hard courts to this point and may consider herself as a dangerous player in the coming weeks when the Tour moves to North America. Her serve can be a weakness, but I do think Koukalova gets the better of the young Frenchwoman Kristina Mladenovic.
Mladenovic hasn't had the same level of success on the hard courts over the last two years as her opponent and she has found the main Tour level a little tough to negotiate. Her win over Na Li at the French Open in the First Round earned Mladenovic some headlines back home, but I think she will struggle with the veteran Koukalova who has the match playing experience to win matches like this.
As long as Koukalova doesn't serve as poorly throughout the match as she started off against Vekic, I would expect this to be a more routine 64, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Federico Delbonis - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lukas Rosol - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Klara Koukalova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-3, + 3.44 Units (16 Units Staked, + 21.5% Yield)
Monday, 14 July 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (July 14th)
A number of new tournaments begin this Monday, but I have only made one outright pick from the event being held in Bogota which can be read here.
Andrey Golubev v Benoit Paire: Andrey Golubev is one of the more erratic players on the Tour which makes him a dangerous player to back, but I do think he will get the better of Benoit Paire.
Confidence has to be low for Paire considering he has lost nine of his last ten matches and he had a poor time on the clay courts earlier this season. There was no improvement with another loss in Stuttgart last week and he faces a player in Golubev that at least got to a Semi Final on the clay a couple of weeks ago, albeit on the Challenger level.
At this level of tennis, confidence does play a huge part in matches and Paire has lost a lot recently which can be a tough trend to break. I don't like some aspects of Golubev's game on the clay where his mistakes can be exposed, but I do think he can use a big first serve to set himself up for a win.
It might take three sets, but Golubev may just hold his nerve better and move through to the Second Round.
Albert Montanes - 2.5 games v Gastao Elias: This has been a down year for the veteran Albert Montanes, but he was a little unfortunate to lose in the First Round last week and I still think there is enough in the tank to beat this qualifier.
Gastao Elias has played well on the Challenger circuit having reached the Final in two tournaments on the clay courts and he has won two matches to reach the First Round proper which will make him dangerous.
However, Elias has struggled at this level and the veteran Albert Montanes can at least give him something to think about. Montanes will have to play better than he has in his recent matches as he has three losses in a row, but it certainly looks like the Spaniard is going to slip down the Rankings.
Even with that in mind, Montanes has the know-how to win a match like this and I would expect him to come through 75, 64 after a few breaks of serve for both players.
Jarkko Nieminen - 2.5 games v Tobias Kamke: Jarkko Nieminen has won all four previous matches against Tobias Kamke, but it is just a quirk of the scheduling that all but one of those wins have come at the same tournament in Stockholm over the last few years.
Neither player has a dominant record on the clay courts which makes this a closer match to call than the odds may suggest, but I do think Nieminen can cause problems for Kamke.
The home crowd may give Kamke the support he needs to cause a surprise win, but I think Nieminen has the more effective serve that should help him hold serve more times than the German.
Another match that may need to go the distance to produce a winner, I like Nieminen to win 63, 36, 63.
Klara Koukalova - 3.5 games v Donna Vekic: It is a strange scheduling decision for Klara Koukalova to move from the grass courts to the clay courts for one tournament before heading to Istanbul for this hard court event.
However, Koukalova took an early loss last week and will have had time to get to Turkey and accustomed to the courts, while she will take further confidence from beating Donna Vekic on the hard courts twice already this season.
Koukalova has won all four sets they have competed in that time and she certainly has the return game to make life awkward for Vekic, although she will also need to serve effectively if she is to win this match.
Both players have shown decent hard court form in 2014 and both may feel the next two months are an important time to build points, but I think Koukalova may have the mental edge to come through in two tight sets.
MY PICKS: Andrey Golubev @ 1.83 Stan James (2 Units)
Albert Montanes - 2.5 Games @ 1.81 Unitbet (2 Units)
Jarkko Nieminen - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Klara Koukalova - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Unitbet (2 Units)
Andrey Golubev v Benoit Paire: Andrey Golubev is one of the more erratic players on the Tour which makes him a dangerous player to back, but I do think he will get the better of Benoit Paire.
Confidence has to be low for Paire considering he has lost nine of his last ten matches and he had a poor time on the clay courts earlier this season. There was no improvement with another loss in Stuttgart last week and he faces a player in Golubev that at least got to a Semi Final on the clay a couple of weeks ago, albeit on the Challenger level.
At this level of tennis, confidence does play a huge part in matches and Paire has lost a lot recently which can be a tough trend to break. I don't like some aspects of Golubev's game on the clay where his mistakes can be exposed, but I do think he can use a big first serve to set himself up for a win.
It might take three sets, but Golubev may just hold his nerve better and move through to the Second Round.
Albert Montanes - 2.5 games v Gastao Elias: This has been a down year for the veteran Albert Montanes, but he was a little unfortunate to lose in the First Round last week and I still think there is enough in the tank to beat this qualifier.
Gastao Elias has played well on the Challenger circuit having reached the Final in two tournaments on the clay courts and he has won two matches to reach the First Round proper which will make him dangerous.
However, Elias has struggled at this level and the veteran Albert Montanes can at least give him something to think about. Montanes will have to play better than he has in his recent matches as he has three losses in a row, but it certainly looks like the Spaniard is going to slip down the Rankings.
Even with that in mind, Montanes has the know-how to win a match like this and I would expect him to come through 75, 64 after a few breaks of serve for both players.
Jarkko Nieminen - 2.5 games v Tobias Kamke: Jarkko Nieminen has won all four previous matches against Tobias Kamke, but it is just a quirk of the scheduling that all but one of those wins have come at the same tournament in Stockholm over the last few years.
Neither player has a dominant record on the clay courts which makes this a closer match to call than the odds may suggest, but I do think Nieminen can cause problems for Kamke.
The home crowd may give Kamke the support he needs to cause a surprise win, but I think Nieminen has the more effective serve that should help him hold serve more times than the German.
Another match that may need to go the distance to produce a winner, I like Nieminen to win 63, 36, 63.
Klara Koukalova - 3.5 games v Donna Vekic: It is a strange scheduling decision for Klara Koukalova to move from the grass courts to the clay courts for one tournament before heading to Istanbul for this hard court event.
However, Koukalova took an early loss last week and will have had time to get to Turkey and accustomed to the courts, while she will take further confidence from beating Donna Vekic on the hard courts twice already this season.
Koukalova has won all four sets they have competed in that time and she certainly has the return game to make life awkward for Vekic, although she will also need to serve effectively if she is to win this match.
Both players have shown decent hard court form in 2014 and both may feel the next two months are an important time to build points, but I think Koukalova may have the mental edge to come through in two tight sets.
MY PICKS: Andrey Golubev @ 1.83 Stan James (2 Units)
Albert Montanes - 2.5 Games @ 1.81 Unitbet (2 Units)
Jarkko Nieminen - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Klara Koukalova - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Unitbet (2 Units)
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