Tennis Picks 2026 (Friday 17th April)

The Quarter Final matches at the four big events being played this week have all been scheduled for action on Friday, but there are only two selections from the matches available.

After a 3-0 start to the week, the hope is that these two selections can continue the positive start to the clay court season.

One of those comes from  the ATP 500 tournament being played in Barcelona and the other from the WTA 500 tournament in Stuttgart.

Some of the top contenders for the French Open title can lay down an early marker at these 500 events, although there are still bigger events to be played in Madrid and Rome at the 1000 level.

However, as mentioned earlier this week, the Masters event in Madrid tends to have a very different feel to the other events during this European clay court run and may be one to keep a watching brief before the Rome event and the last run up into the second Grand Slam of the season.

Rafael Jodar - 3.5 games v Cameron Norrie: It was never going to be easy being the next player to break through in British Tennis during the Andy Murray era, but Cameron Norrie has put together a strong career. He continues to be a brilliant competitor every time he steps onto the court and there is something to be said about that.

At his peak, Cameron Norrie reached World Number 8, while he reached the second week at all of the Grand Slam events with his best effort being a Semi Final run at Wimbledon in 2022. This is an all-court player who reached the French Open Fourth Round for the first time just last year and Cameron Norrie has battled through a couple of Rounds to reach the Quarter Final here in Barcelona this week.

Later this year, Cameron Norrie is turning 31 and there was a feeling several months ago that his best tennis was now behind him.

No one will suggest this is a flashy player, but Norrie will grind every time he steps on the court and his numbers are pretty similar across the surfaces.

Cameron Norrie serves well enough on the clay courts and will get himself into the return rallies to remain dangerous, and the veteran is sure to have learned plenty out of the one-sided defeat suffered to Rafael Jodar on the hard courts of Acapulco in February.

On that day, the young Spaniard won 82% of his service points played and broke the Cameron Norrie serve three times and Rafael Jodar has continued his 2026 form on the clay courts with two solid wins at this event.

That comes after winning a title in Bucharest at an ATP 250 level and Jodar has looked comfortable at this 500 level, although he will respect the fact that he is facing the highest Ranked opponent on this surface so far this season.

Rafael Jodar was not at his very best in the Second Round, but he continues to serve really effectively and that is allowing him to build real pressure on the return. Those numbers on that side of the court are really impressive and it feels like the 19 year old is going to have enough to get past Cameron Norrie.

It should be closer than the meeting in Acapulco now that Norrie has had a proper look at the opponent, but Rafael Jodar is on track to really move up the World Rankings and this is a surface that should favour him to enough of an extent to earn the win and the over of the spread set.

Coco Gauff - 3.5 games v Karolina Muchova: The French Open Final was played in some incredibly difficult conditions, but credit has to be given to Coco Gauff for holding it together for longer than Aryna Sabalenka to win that Grand Slam in 2025.

She has long been very comfortable on the clay courts and Coco Gauff would have been confident of winning the French Open after recent experiences on the surface. Last year, Gauff put together another impressive year on the clay, although the one poor tournament was right here in Stuttgart.

A comfortable win in the Second Round will have given Coco Gauff early momentum and she is going to be happy with the match up in this Quarter Final.

Karolina Muchova is a former French Open Finalist, but she has not played too much clay court tennis over the last couple of years.

That takes away nothing from the ability Muchova has shown to play on all courts, but she has lost all six Tour meetings against Coco Gauff and this has proven to be a difficult opponent to work out.

Karolina Muchova has put together two solid wins in Stuttgart, but she has simply not been able to impose her serve on Coco Gauff in those previous six matches. That is going to be even tougher to achieve on the clay courts, while the World Number 3 has to be credited for getting more out of the first serve on this surface.

This could become an awkward spread where the line currently stands.

However, Coco Gauff's comfort on the clay courts gives her every chance of maintaining the advantage over Karolina Muchova with another win over this opponent.

MY PICKS: Rafael Jodar - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Coco Gauff - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 3-0, + 2.54 Units (3 Units Staked, + 84.67% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2026 (Wednesday 15th April)

The clay court season has gotten underway earlier this month, but a decision was made to skip making any Tennis Picks at the Monte Carlo Masters.

There are plenty of big events to be completed before we get to the French Open at the end of the month and there are three 500 level events this week in Barcelona, Munich and Stuttgart with some big names on both the ATP and WTA Tour in action.

It should be remembered that there are still plenty of clay court specialists out there and those have to be respected, while some top names are much more comfortable on the faster surfaces rather than the red dirt.

We have already seen another meltdown from Daniil Medvedev last week in Monte Carlo, while some of the top American names are skipping some of this part of the season knowing they are much more dangerous when it comes to the hard or grass courts. Others that are playing become vulnerable to the upsets that the layers may not always price up as they should and so there is a lot of consideration given to a number of factors that can change the selection.

Taking note of the kind of clay court tournaments coming up is also important- the Madrid Masters plays very different to the other clay events and the French Open and tends to throw up many more upsets than most events at this time of the season. Conditions tend to see the ball fly that much quicker through the air and the surface so that may be another event which needs to be watched, rather than having multiple selections made, but that is something to consider when the tournament comes around next week.

A decent start to the season took a knock in March with the Indian Wells and Miami Masters both getting the better of the selections.

Overall we have to be happy with where the numbers currently stand, but building momentum towards the French Open is important and that is the focus over the next six weeks until the second Grand Slam of the season gets underway.

Rafael Jodar - 4.5 games v Camilo Ugo Carabelli: After the retirement of Rafael Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz has become the poster boy for Spanish Tennis, but there is another Rafael making his way up the World Rankings.

19 year old Rafael Jodar may not have made the early waves of Alcaraz, but he is operating at a career best World Number 55 after winning the title in Marrakech earlier this month. A Wild Card has been handed to him to take his place in this ATP 500 event in Barcelona and the same can be expected at the ATP 1000 event in Madrid and Rafael Jodar could make significant leaps in the World Rankings right through the French Open.

He has played well on the hard courts as well as the more natural clay and that makes this teenager someone to keep an eye on.

Veteran Jaume Munar was dismissed in the First Round very comfortably and Rafael Jodar is a pretty significant favourite in this match up against Camilo Ugo Carabelli.

The 26 year old Argentinian is the World Number 43 and like many of his compatriots, Camilo Ugo Carabelli is very comfortable on the red dirt. Earlier this season he won a Challenger event in Argentina and later reached the Quarter Final at the ATP 250 tournament held in Buenos Aires.

Early losses in Rio de Janeiro and Santiago will have been a disappointment during the South American Golden Swing, but Camilo Ugo Carabeli reached the Semi Final in Marrakech to boost confidence.

That run was ended by Rafael Jodar as they prepare to meet for a second time on the clay this month, and the real test for Camilo Ugo Carabelli is whether he can find a way to get his teeth into the Jodar serve. It was a problem in Marrakech with Ugo Carabelli creating just 2 Break Points in a straight sets defeat as he struggled to make an impact on either the first or second serve return.

While only a small sample, Rafael Jodar's serving in his six clay courts matches in 2026 has been really impressive and he has backed that up by keeping the pressure on opponents with his return.

If Camilo Ugo Carabelli can get his first serve rhythm going, he can be dangerous and put some pressure on the younger player. However, the second serve can be a real weakness and Ugo Carabelli was broken four times when these players met in Morocco.

Winning just three games again is unlikely, but Camilo Ugo Carabelli may struggle to still cover this spread set for the Second Round match in Barcelona.

MY PICKS: Rafael Jodar - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Season 2026: 93-80, + 9.20 Units (238 Units Staked, + 3.87% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (April 23rd)

SWEEP!!

A 5-0 Friday has moved this week back in a position to record another winning run on the clay courts and I have to hope that the momentum is now behind the selections.

After a difficult couple of days, it was nice to be on the right side of some of the fortune and the tournaments are all back on track with the Semi Final matches set to be played in the four events on Saturday and the conclusion of the events to come on Sunday.

There are quite a few matches scheduled to be played on Saturday with Semi Final matches at all four events, but I think it is reasonable to suggest a watching brief should be taken with the majority of them.

However, I do have a single Tennis Pick can be read below:

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 1.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: Players who have reached the Semi Final at the ATP Barcelona tournament have had to go through double duty on Friday and it does make those matches a little tougher to break down.

All credit has to be given to the four players remaining, but I do wonder how much Pablo Carreno Busta has left in the tank having needed the full six sets on Friday. His wins over Lorenzo Sonego and Casper Ruud are solid and will give Pablo Carreno Busta a lot of confidence, but going the distance in both matches means the Spaniard has spent just shy of six hours on court in a single day.

It has to have taken something out of the tank, while Pablo Carreno Busta also allowed his two opponents to combine for more break point chances than he managed himself. I am expecting not just the physical side of things to be a concern for Pablo Carreno Busta, but those were emotional wins and he is going to need the full support of the Spanish fans.

I do think he will have success against Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who can have a very vulnerable serve on the clay courts. However, the diminutive Argentinian earned his place in the Semi Final with much more conviction than Pablo Carreno Busta and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman also spent a little over four hours on the court on Friday.

This should be important considering the kind of rallies we are expecting to see from the two players in Barcelona, but Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has the edge when it comes to the return of serve.

Both players have struggled to hold serve in previous matches between them, while Pablo Carreno Busta beat Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in a tight three setter here in Barcelona in 2021. This time I expect the fresher Schwartzman to have the advantage as he looks to reach the Final, and he has also had the stronger numbers here this season.

Pablo Carreno Busta has been serving well in terms of the holds he has put together, but the break point chances have been there for his opponents and someone like Diego Sebastian Schwartzman can do enough to win this match.

I expect plenty of swings in momentum with both players likely to find breaks of serve, but Diego Sebastian Schwartzman being fresher has to be a huge key to the outcome of this Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 11-10, - 0.54 Units (42 Units Staked, - 1.29% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (April 21st)

It really felt like a day when the Tennis Picks deserved a better return than they got, but things could have been worse on another day.

While I anticipated Wednesday to be a busy day, weather conditions and the strange way some of the tournaments are managing their schedules means Thursday is a busier day than expected. The Tennis Picks follow suit with a number of selections from the four tournaments being played this week and you can read my thoughts on a few of the matches below as well as the full Tennis Picks from another day on the clay.

In the Friday thread I will have a few thoughts about the decision made by Wimbledon and the LTA in banning players from Belarus and Russia from taking part in the grass court season in the UK.

Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: No one can beat Aljaz Bedene eight times in a row!

After seven straight losses to Fabio Fognini, Aljaz Bedene beat the Italian for the first time when they met on the clay courts of Cordoba in 2019, but a lot has changed in the last three years. Both of these players are now veterans of the Tour, while Aljaz Bedene has only made his return to the Tour last month after missing the rest of 2021 from July with injuries piling up.

As you can imagine, Aljaz Bedene has not really performed as well as he would have liked while trying to rebuild his match fitness, but the victory over Mikhail Kukushkin in the First Round in Belgrade will help. For a long time, Aljaz Bedene has saved his best tennis for the clay courts and the next six weeks could be important for a player that has slipped down to Number 164 in the World Rankings, even if this match up is a tough one for him.

Fabio Fognini is clearly coming to the end of a long, successful career, but he can still be very effective on the clay courts and that will encourage him in the lead to the French Open. Last week he was well beaten by eventual Monte Carlo Champion Stefanos Tsitsipas, but Fabio Fognini may feel much more comfortable at the ATP 250 level on this surface and he has reached the Quarter Final in Buenos Aires and the Semi Final in Rio de Janeiro on the clay courts in 2022.

The numbers on the clay courts over the last twelve months have been largely average, but Fabio Fognini has been the superior return player of the two and I think that gives him an edge. He is also much more match hardened than Aljaz Bedene who has spent a number of months off the Tour and I expect that to also factor in favour of the Italian.

In their previous clay court matches that have largely been dominated by Fabio Fognini, the difference in the returning departments have been clear and I think that will be the outcome of this match in Belgrade too. I will be the first to admit that I rarely back Fabio Fognini because he can be an erratic player, but this is one of those moments where I think the veteran enigma can be looked at as a potential strong winner in the Second Round.

Aslan Karatsev - 1.5 games v Oscar Otte: 2021 was a special year for Aslan Karatsev, but 2022 has proven to be a much more difficult one through the first four months of the season. That may sound a little harsh considering Aslan Karatsev has won a title on the hard courts in January, but he has only reached one Quarter Final since Sydney and has suffered a number of disappointing early losses in recent weeks.

The World Ranking has slipped back to Number 30 and Aslan Karatsev has plenty of points to defend in Belgrade having reached the Final in 2021. That does increase the pressure on someone who has not really performed as well as he would like and who may be suffering with confidence issues, but Aslan Karatsev has to feel this is a winnable match.

The Second Round brings a match up against Oscar Otte who has reached a career high of World Number 67 earlier this month. You have to respect someone who is clearly raising his level of performance, but Oscar Otte has yet to take his game up from the Challenger level to the main ATP Tour with any real consistency and the same can be said for his clay court performances.

Oscar Otte was a strong winner in the First Round, but he was beaten twice in Monte Carlo having been given a reprieve for a Qualifier defeat to lose again as the 'Lucky Loser' in the First Round. Last year he did have some solid runs on this surface at the Challenger level, but Oscar Otte is just 2-2 against top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface over the last twelve months.

In those four matches, Oscar Otte has really struggled with his serve and held just 66% of service games played and I do think Aslan Karatsev can put him under some pressure in this one.

However, you do have to question whether Aslan Karatsev has the confidence to take advantage when the chances come his way, while the Russian has a serve which can be a little erratic. He has largely backed that up on the clay courts with success, but Aslan Karatsev has only broken in 19% of return games played on this surface over the last twelve months and I do think the confidence levels are a major concern.

At least Aslan Karatsev can use the fact he has beaten Oscar Otte twice before, once on the clay, to fuel his confidence in this one. With the strong run produced in Belgrade last year, you have to feel Karatsev will be happier in the surroundings and it can lead to a win over Oscar Otte here.

In their two previous matches, the Aslan Karatsev serve has been the more reliable of the two and I think he can use some heavy serving to move into another Quarter Final in Belgrade.

Holger Rune - 3.5 games v Taro Daniel: Any player that has come through the Qualifiers and won three matches in a tournament has to be respected and there has to be a confidence in the Taro Daniel tennis that makes him dangerous. The last twelve months have been pretty solid for Taro Daniel who is edging back towards the top 100 of the World Rankings, but he has not always been at his best on the clay courts.

The come from behind win over Dusan Lajovic in the First Round will be a boost for Taro Daniel, although it was a tough match that would have taken something out of his legs. He needed almost a full three hours to win that First Round match and so the day off on Wednesday will have been welcomed, but Taro Daniel will need to be a little better all around if he is going to win this Second Round match too.

Over the last twelve months, Taro Daniel has produced some solid clay court numbers, although it should be pointed out the majority of those matches have been played against players Ranked outside the top 100. When you only look at his matches against the better players on the Tour, Taro Daniel has held 71% of service games played and broken in 23% of return games, numbers which dip significantly from his overall clay court performances in the last twelve months.

Now he has to face Holger Rune, an improving young player who has been very comfortable when playing on the clay courts. A narrow loss to Casper Ruud in Monte Carlo will only have boosted the confidence of Holger Rune who crushed Cristian Garin in the First Round for the loss of just four games.

The Danish player has served pretty well on the clay courts, but it is the return of serve where he has been most dangerous and I expect that to make the difference for him on Thursday.

In 2022, Holger Rune has broken in 37% of return games played on the surface and I do think he can impose his will on Taro Daniel. That was the case when he played Taro Daniel on the clay in 2021 and Holger Rune won that match in pretty routine fashion after holding in 81% of service games played compared with Taro Daniel's 60% mark.

Taro Daniel will take confidence from the fact he created more break points in that match Szczecin, but he won 57% of service points played compared with Holger Rune's 65% mark and I think the younger player will be fresher for the match too. Holger Rune looks to be the superior clay courter and I think he will be good enough to beat Taro Daniel by a good margin on his way through to the Quarter Final in Belgrade.

MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Aslan Karatsev - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Holger Rune - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Thiago Monteiro + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Pablo Carreno Busta - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-7, - 4.54 Units (24 Units Staked, - 18.92% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (April 20th)

That was a poor day all around punctuated by the horrible Manchester United performance at Anfield.

I might have had a tough day in the office as far as the Tennis Picks are concerned, but I was largely happy with the selections and felt I deserved slightly better.

One player has moved onto my 'blacklist' and will not be selected over the next couple of weeks as I take a watching brief on their matches, but it was a frustrating day in the main with only Marton Fucsovics returning as a winner.

Wednesday is another extremely busy day of Tennis with the four tournaments getting into the meat of the events being played and it is hopefully a day in which the Picks can be much more productive.

Pablo Carreno Busta - 4.5 games v Barnabe Zapata Miralles: These two players met here in Barcelona last year and it will be interesting to see how much Barnabe Zapata Miralles learned from the experience.

He was pretty well beaten by the experienced Pablo Carreno Busta and the higher Ranked player did reach the Quarter Final in Monte Carlo last week. I do have to admit that the numbers have largely been a little disappointing compared to what you may expect from Pablo Carreno Busta, but he is a battle hardened player and that means he has found a way to win close matches.

Much will depend on how effective the Pablo Carreno Busta serve will be and over the last twelve months it has been an inconsistent weapon on the clay courts. He will definitely feel there is an improvement to be made from his Monte Carlo performance, but this is a good chance to get into the tournament in Barcelona.

Being a higher Ranked and older player than his compatriot is something that has made an impact in matches throughout the history of the Tennis Tour and I think that may have been part of the reason that Barnabe Zapata Miralles was beaten pretty handily last season. The one previous match should mean Zapata Miralles is a bit more comfortable facing up to Pablo Carreno Busta, but he has had a mixed time on the clay courts in 2022.

Barnabe Zapata Miralles has come through the Qualifiers and his three wins in Barcelona have been very impressive, but he has struggled with his serve on the clay courts this season. That makes him vulnerable to Pablo Carreno Busta, although I do think the younger Spaniard will be able to have success with his own return.

That has been the strongest part of his game, but it may be under pressure if Barnabe Zapata Miralles is not able to produce strong serving on the day. It was the difference last season with Zapata Miralles struggling to hold onto his serve when they met here in Barcelona and I do think Pablo Carreno Busta can produce a similar kind of victory on Wednesday in this Second Round meeting.

I would like to see Pablo Carreno Busta just knuckle down quicker than he did in his matches in Monte Carlo last week, but he has enjoyed playing in Barcelona and I think he can win through to the next Round.

Alex De Minaur - 3.5 games v Ugo Humbert: You cannot ignore the fact that Alex De Minaur has not been at his most comfortable on the clay courts and so it is very difficult to back him as a favourite in any match on this surface.

That is the case even when facing someone like Ugo Humbert who has been struggling with his confidence in 2022- however, the Frenchman has won a match in Barcelona and should be plenty ready to deal with the conditions he is facing.

Ugo Humbert is another player who has been at odds with playing on the clay courts and I think that, coupled with his lack of confidence, will make him vulnerable to someone as solid as Alex De Minaur can be. This might not be his best surface, but De Minaur has been able to get a little bit more out of his serve compared with Ugo Humbert and the Australian also looks to have a real edge when it comes to the returning numbers on the surface.

Their two previous matches have both been played on the hard courts and have seen the two players split those one apiece, but the clay courts may just strengthen the edge in favour of Alex De Minaur.

Any player who has struggled on a surface as much as Alex De Minaur has done can be difficult to trust to cover such a spread as the one he is being asked to cover on Wednesday, but I do think he played well enough in Monte Carlo. Playing a first match in this ATP Barcelona event also means Alex De Minaur may need a bit of time to just get himself ready to compete, but I do think his numbers over the last twelve months suggest he is the stronger player on the clay courts and able to work his way to an edge.

In their two hard court matches, the Australian has had a slight edge too and I think he can earn enough break points to be in a position to cover this mark.

MY PICKS: Pablo Carreno Busta - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Emma Raducanu - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Anett Kontaveit - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tamara Zidansek - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-4, - 4 Units (12 Units Staked, - 33.33% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (April 19th)

The sole Tennis Pick on Monday returned an early morning winner and I can't ask for much more than that.

There are some big tournaments being played this week on both the ATP and WTA Tours, but the focus for the Tennis Picks on Tuesday are the two ATP events in Barcelona and Belgrade. I have three selections from Barcelona and two from Belgrade which can be seen below.

While I don't have any Picks from the WTA Stuttgart tournament, I will be hoping to tune in at some point when Bianca Andreescu makes her return to the Tour. Injuries have stalled a promising career, but I am hoping that the Canadian is over those and can push back towards the top of the World Rankings where she belongs.

After a long layoff, Bianca Andreescu makes her season debut on Tuesday and I can only wish her the best of luck.

Roberto Carballas Baena - 1.5 games v Lloyd Harris: He may be Ranked over fifty places behind his opponent, but you can understand why Roberto Carballas Baena has been set as the favourite in this First Round match against Lloyd Harris. While the Spaniard has long been at his most comfortable on the natural surface of the clay courts, Lloyd Harris has struggled to have an impact on the red dirt and the next six weeks is a difficult time for the big serving South African.

You cannot completely disregard the Roberto Carballas Baena World Ranking, but I do think he is the right favourite in this First Round match in Barcelona.

He reached the Semi Final of a Challenger event on the clay in Madrid last week and Roberto Carballas Baena has won matches at the main ATP level too. The Spaniard has suffered a couple of heavy losses to the likes of Casper Ruud and Lorenzo Sonego, but those two players are pretty comfortable on the clay courts too and the overall numbers produced by Roberto Carballas Baena are decent enough.

They are certainly going to be good enough to give him a big chance to beat Lloyd Harris who has long struggled on the slower surface as he has not been given as many free points as he would expect to receive on the hard and grass courts. Lloyd Harris was pretty handily beaten in Monte Carlo in the sole match played there and even in 2021 he only held serve in 71% of service games played, which leaves him vulnerable on this surface against a clay court specialist.

It also has to be noted that Lloyd Harris has not been as comfortable as he would have liked when it comes to returning on the clay courts- while he will get into rallies, the slower surface tests the consistency of the groundstrokes and that is where Roberto Carballas Baena looks to have a real advantage over Lloyd Harris in this First Round match.

Roberto Carballas Baena has an attackable serve, but Lloyd Harris has not really shown the consistency to be able to exploit that. Instead, it feels like the Carballas Baena return could make the difference on the day and I will look for the Spaniard to earn a good win in this First Round match in Barcelona.

Marton Fucsovics - 4.5 games v Jordan Thompson: Playing on the clay courts in Houston is one thing, but the European clay courts are a big test for players like Jordan Thompson who want to spend the majority of their time on faster surfaces. This is a surface in which patience and consistency can be rewarded, while movement is very different for players compared with the hard courts and grass courts they will be playing on for much of the season.

The Australian was beaten in his first match in Houston and in recent years he has not had a lot of experience of playing on the red dirt. Last season he finished with a 2-4 record on the clay courts, although Jordan Thompson did win a match here in Barcelona and will be hoping that experience can be replicated.

A big problem for Jordan Thompson over the last couple of years on the clay courts has been the serve and he has just struggled to get out of those tough spots that a big serve can manage to do when playing on the hard courts. It is perhaps no surprise it has led to Jordan Thompson holding just 68% of service games played on the clay over the last twelve months compared with his 77% mark on the hard courts.

The pressure has then been ramped up on the return and it has proved to be a tough spot for Jordan Thompson to deal with as he has broken in just 18% of return games on a surface on which the return should be easier to deal with.

Marton Fucsovics will be hoping to take advantage after a relatively disappointing Monte Carlo Masters showing- he has dropped out of the top 50 in the World Rankings and may have seen his best tennis pass him by, but he remains a solid, if unspectacular clay courter.

Over the last twelve months, Marton Fucsovics has found his own serve being much more vulnerable on the clay courts, but he does hold 70% of service games played. That number is not much better than Jordan Thompson's mark, but a difference for the Hungarian is that he has broken in 32% of return games and I do think he will be the superior player whenever we get into rallies.

I expect that to make the difference on the day and the return of serve should favour Marton Fucsovics to move into a position to cover what is a big handicap mark. As long as he serves even semi competently, I expect Marton Fucsovics to record a solid win in Barcelona on his way to the Second Round of this tournament.

Pablo Andujar - 2.5 games v Ugo Humbert: The main problem some of the clay court specialists have is that they have serves that can be vulnerable and it is something that the top players on the Tour will exploit.

Take Pablo Andujar as an example- he has a winning record on the clay courts over the last twelve months, but his numbers are hurt by the fact he only holds 68% of service games played. The wins have largely come about thanks to the 33% of games in which he has broken serve, but it makes players like Andujar hard to trust when it comes to covering any spread.

However, he is the favourite against Ugo Humbert in the First Round in Barcelona and deservedly so when you think of the season long struggle the Frenchman has had on the Tour. The confidence is clearly dented as shown by his manner of defeat to Pedro Martinez in the Monte Carlo Masters, but Ugo Humbert had more successes breaking the serve than looking after his own and that makes him potentially awkward for Pablo Andujar to deal with.

The difference between the players does look to be the return.

Over the last twelve months Ugo Humbert has struggled for wins on all surfaces, but especially on the clay courts where he too has only managed to hold serve in 68% of service games played on the surface. Unlike Pablo Andujar, Ugo Humbert has not been able to break serve as consistently with a 20% mark there and I think the favourite is going to earn a measure of revenge for losing to the Frenchman at the Olympic Games last year.

That was a match played on the hard courts and I do think the shift onto the clay courts favours Pablo Andujar.

He hasn't played for a couple of weeks, but playing on the clay will feel natural for Pablo Andujar and I think he will find a way to force the breaks against a player lacking confidence. Ugo Humbert will have some break chances of his own, but Andujar should have the majority of break points on the day and I think he will work towards a good looking win.

MY PICKS: Roberto Carballas Baena - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Marton Fucsovics - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Pablo Andujar - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Joao Sousa + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

David Goffin - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-0, + 1.80 Units (2 Units Stake, + 90% Yield)

Season 2022: - 16.46 Units (494 Units Staked, - 3.33% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (April 18th)

Winners in both Semi Final matches at the Monte Carlo Masters on Saturday ensured I would not have a losing week, but I didn't really find an angle I was comfortable enough in the Final.

My feeling was that Stefanos Tsitsipas would win, but the handicap mark looked right on the money and it turned out he would have failed to cover by a single game.

It was a good week for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina even though he came up short, and both players will be heading into the rest of the clay court season feeling pretty good about what they can achieve. This is a time on the Tour when the big tournaments are played frequently on the run up to the French Open and a huge number of top names are playing on both the ATP and WTA Tours this week.

The WTA Tour returns after a short break where the Billie Jean King Cup Qualifiers were played, but there is a big event in Stuttgart this week before the Madrid Masters. For some reason the two Tours are not playing at the same time in Madrid this year with the ATP Tour heading there in early May, but the tournaments in Barcelona and Belgrade have plenty of big names attached to them this week.

Monday is usually one of the quieter days for main Tour tennis matches being scheduled, but a busy day in Barcelona is set to take place.

My Tennis Picks are going to be restricted to a single selection on Monday with more to come as the tournaments heat up this week.

I will also update the season totals for the Tennis Picks in the Tennis Picks thread on April 19th.

Lorenzo Musetti v Sebastian Baez: Two young players meet in the First Round of the tournament in Barcelona and they are both very comfortable on the clay courts which makes for a fascinating match.

Lorenzo Musetti has had a couple of good runs in Marrakech and Monte Carlo, but the feeling is that he will still be a little disappointed that those tournaments were not even stronger for him. Losses to Laslo Djere and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman are not so bad on paper, while the performances in his returning game will offer plenty of encouragement for Lorenzo Musetti.

The 44% of points won on the return are a significant improvement on his numbers on the clay courts in previous seasons so the question is whether Lorenzo Musetti can maintain his level of 2022. You do have to believe that the Italian has an improvement in him at just 20 years old, while the serve is another shot that is likely to improve in the next few years.

He is going into this match as the lower Ranked player as Sebastian Baez has used his performances to reach a peak career World Ranking of Number 60 last month. The Argentinian has played a lot more clay court tennis compared with Lorenzo Musetti this season, but Sebastian Baez has been a little weaker both in terms of his serve and his return.

Sebastian Baez has won plenty of clay court matches over the last fifteen months and that will make him very dangerous having the confidence of knowing what to do on the surface. However, a lot of the successes have been against players lower down the World Rankings.

In saying that, Sebastian Baez does have a 10-4 record against top 100 Ranked opponents on the clay courts over the last twelve months. Despite that, Baez has not been as strong returning against those higher Ranked opponents compared with the majority of opponents he has faced, and I do think Lorenzo Musetti could use his serve to make the slight difference to hand him the edge in this First Round match.

There would be no surprise if this match needs a third set to decide the winner, but I do think Lorenzo Musetti could earn revenge for losing in the Next Gen Finals to Sebastian Baez back in November. The clay courts are a surface that both will be happy to be playing on and I think the fans will enjoy the tennis that both of these young players will produce, but I am going to back Lorenzo Musetti to continue returning at a level that sees him win this match.

MY PICKS: Lorenzo Musetti @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2021 (April 22nd)

There are always some difficult moments during the long Tour and that goes for players and those of us trying to make the right Tennis Picks.

I'm just having one of those trying times.

I have added at least two names to some of the others that are already on my list that have to be avoided at all costs- you can't really trust them to perform when you back them, but they will be unplayable the day you dare to oppose them (hi Kei Nishikori).

And no matter who I pick, it is never easy for them... At the moment the amount of break points and set points being missed or players serving for the match and then faltering massively that has been going on is laughable. If I pick an underdog though, they seem to a train-wreck that won't even think about competing.

I won't lie, it is nothing but frustrating when things like this happen and the worst thing part is you would prefer the train-wreck Pick rather than the one that is almost conspired against by the Tennis Gods.

I mean if your selection gets battered you put it down to one of those days- but what do you say when someone has a set and a break lead, fails to serve it out, misses match points and decides to lose six of seven games... Worst still, they will then win five in a row to win the match and miss the cover by one game (hi Filip Krajinovic).

Too often this has happened since the latter week of the Miami Masters and it has proved to be costly.

But how many times can it keep happening? I think Thursday will be a key day for me at least until the Madrid Masters.

If there are more of these types of weird things happening, I think I am going to take a short break and just hit the reset button. Over the last couple of days it has felt most of the big points have gone against my selections and that really is bad luck, because you can't keep picking players to get into a position where they are one point from crossing the line and falling short each time, just through sheer luck it won't keep happening.

BUT I am also not willing to have a bad run hurt me over and over- I regularly take those breaks between events to just settle things back to zero and then go again (just as I am writing this Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has lost the set 6-3 despite losing THREE more points- again that is almost statistically impossible seeing as you need two points more to win a single game). However, it is that kind of nonsense I refuse to accept as being a sign of a bad pick rather than a horrific turn of luck.

In saying that I have had some bad Picks too, but those are compounded by the others and I do need to be better.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 games v Alex De Minuar: It has not been the most productive of seasons for Alex De Minaur up to this point and he is going to be entering what has regularly become a difficult portion of the Tour for him. The Australian did win a ATP Title early on in 2021, but he is just 4-7 since then and the win in the Second Round here snapped a poor run that the Australian had been on.

I have to say that he has not really enjoyed much fortune with some close losses before another narrow defeat in Monte Carlo last week, while Alex De Minaur will be going up against a player in confident form and one that has played some of his best tennis on the clay courts throughout his career.

Stefanos Tsitsipas missed a couple of opportunities for Titles already in 2021, but he is finally on the board with a Masters success in Monte Carlo. While Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will go into the French Open as the favourites, the Greek star may have overtaken Dominic Thiem as the player most likely to be successful if the top two clay courters do falter.

He isn't just winning matches at the moment, but Tsitsipas is blowing through opponents and it was more of the same in his Second Round win over a solid clay courter in Juame Munar. This opponent is not as comfortable on the red dirt and you do have to say that Stefanos Tsitsipas is deserving of his spot as a big favourite, even if the handicap mark is one that can be hard to surpass if playing a B or C level performance.

We just haven't seen any of those in short time back on the clay after reaching the French Open Semi Final last year and Stefanos Tsitsipas is arguably playing much better now. The serve has always been a big weapon for Tsitsipas, but he is most impressing with his bullying on the return and following that up by putting opponent's under significant pressure which has led to breaks in 47% of return games played since the start of the Monte Carlo Masters.

Stefanos Tsitsipas isn't just building his numbers against cannon fodder as half of his six wins on the clay have been against top 30 Ranked opponents.

Alex De Minaur is a player I respect, but he is just 2-7 on the clay courts since 2019 and his service numbers in particular have made for disappointing reading in those matches. In that time the Australian has won just 55% of his service points played and that has led to a hold of serve in less than 65% of his service games on the clay, numbers that a player like Stefanos Tsitsipas will feel he can exploit.

There will be an additional reason for that confidence as Stefanos Tsitsipas has won six of the seven professional matches played between these two players. In those matches, the majority which have been played on surfaces that Alex De Minaur would favour, Tsitsipas has won 42% of return points played compared with De Minaur's 31% mark and there has been a considerable edge in holds of serve off the back of that.

They did play a competitive match Down Under in the ATP Cup, but that was on a hard court and was still won by Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-3, 7-5 a couple of months ago. On a surface that favours the Greek significantly more than Alex De Minaur, I do expect that gap to be slightly bigger at the end of this Third Round match.

Pablo Carreno Busta - 4.5 games v Bernabe Zapata Miralles: After dominating the first set, Bernabe Zapata Miralles may feel he was robbed of the biggest win of his career by Fabio Fognini's outburst that saw the fiery Italian Disqualified in the Second Round. He has never beaten a top 50 Ranked player on the clay courts and the 24 year old will be taking aim at that in the Third Round when taking on a compatriot in Barcelona.

This is a tough looking match for Bernabe Zapata Miralles as he gets set to take on Pablo Carreno Busta who has already won an ATP Title on the clay courts this season. It will perhaps surprise some to hear that I don't think the clay courts are Carreno Busta's best surface having had decent success playing on the hard courts, but the Spaniard is comfortable on the red dirt and his performances over the last couple of weeks have been encouraging.

He only needed a little over an hour to crush Jordan Thompson in the Second Round and Pablo Carreno Busta has produced some solid numbers in his limited time on the clay courts this season. Pablo Carreno Busta didn't play badly on the clay last season either and he has been a solid, if unspectacular, performer on the surface.

The level shown is certainly one that is going to test Bernabe Zapata Miralles, although the Qualifier has a number of wins under his belt that will mean he is confident. I also think the return game has to be respected in this match and Zapata Miralles will know that his opponent is one that can offer up chances on his own serve when he is not at his best, although Pablo Carreno Busta will also believe he can pressure someone who has won less than 60% of service points played on this surface in 2021.

That has largely come in matches against players Ranked outside the top 100 too and his numbers are dented when facing those players inside that number in the World Rankings. Bernabe Zepata Miralles might find the pressure produced from the other side of the net very difficult to deal with and if Pablo Carreno Busta is able to serve as well as he has been in his short time back on the clay he should have a real edge against his younger opponent.

I do think one of the sets will be quite competitive, but Carreno Busta should be able to create the majority of the break point chances and eventually wear down this opponent.

John Millman - 1.5 games v Taro Daniel: Neither of these two players has had a lot of success on the clay courts, but it is a good opportunity to earn a Quarter Final spot and put some vital World Ranking points in the bag. Both John Millman and Taro Daniel are likely to be very happy with the draw after solid First Round wins.

Both victories came in straight sets for these two players, but John Millman made arguably lighter work with his opponent than Taro Daniel. However, the latter is a Lucky Loser so Daniel will feel pretty comfortable in the conditions and also that he has nothing to lose having been beaten once already in Belgrade.

Even then it is hard to make much of a case for Taro Daniel who has long struggled on the clay courts and who has lost all three matches played against top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface in 2021. Taro Daniel has struggled to protect his serve in those three defeats and that has put pressure on his return game, one that Daniel has not been able to handle as the Japanese player has been beaten pretty routinely.

He has held just 71% of service games played on the hard courts in 2021, but that number dips to 54% when only considering matches against top 100 Ranked opponents.

John Millman may not be one of the elite clay courters in the world, but he is a top 100 Ranked player and I think the Australian will also lean on his past successes against Taro Daniel to give him some confidence. The veteran is a fairly steady player overall and John Millman has similar numbers as Taro Daniel both behind serve and return, although four of his five clay court matches have come against top 100 Ranked opponents compared with three of ten for Taro Daniel.

That has to be factored into the numbers, while Millman has a 3-1 lead over Daniel in the head to head. None of those matches have been on the clay courts, but John Millman has had a significant edge in the returning numbers and has created more break points than Taro Daniel in all four matches.

I expect that to be the case again in this Second Round match and I do think John Millman can get past Taro Daniel. His lack of feeling for the clay courts may make this closer than some of their previous matches have been, but I think John Millman should have the majority of chances and in general has been the better clay courter of the two and I expect that to show up by the time it is all said and done.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Pablo Carreno Busta - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

John Millman - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Aslan Karatsev - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-13, - 11.52 Units (42 Units Staked, - 27.43% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (April 21st)

I honestly don't know where the first two days of this week have gone and my time has largely been dominated by other aspects rather than having the time to put down full thoughts on the Tennis that has been played so far this week.

I will be disappointed if I don't get back on top things by Thursday, but for now I will add my selections from the day's play below.

MY PICKS: Ashleigh Barty - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Nikola Milojevic + 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Albert Ramos - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Lorenzo Musetti @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jaume Munar + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Cristian Garin - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2021 (April 20th)

I did say I would have a fuller post for the Tennis Picks on Tuesday, but I had a busier day than expected on Monday and once again I will just have to place my selections here on what is a day filled with Tennis matches from the four tournaments being played.

Monday was a little frustrating, but I will have a longer post on Wednesday and will update the totals for the season and the week in that thread.

MY PICKS: Holger Rune + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Carlos Alcarez Garfia - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Federico Delbonis - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Laslo Djere - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Laura Siegemund - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2021 (April 19th)

The four new tournaments that are set to be played on the clay courts this week have some very big names attached to them and I do think we will see better tennis as the players get used to playing on this surface.

I will have a fuller post for the Tuesday Tennis Picks, but time has not really been on my side on Sunday.

For now you can see my selections to open the week below.

MY PICKS: Pablo Andujar - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Nikola Milojevic - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Filip Krajinovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2019 (April 27th)

The 2019 season has been a really good one for the Tennis Picks, but I think Friday 26th April is comfortably the worst day I have had during over the course of the first four months of the year.

My selections went 1-4 on the day, but it was a highly frustrating one with both Kei Nishikori and Petra Kvitova having no right to not cover in the wins they earned. The former missed a shedload of break points in the early stages of the second set and could easily have taken it 6-1 or 6-2 with some better composure, while the latter was on the brink of a cover despite losing the first four games of the match. That all went up in smoke when Petra Kvitova failed to hold serve one more time when leading 4-2 in the final set and both players missed the cover by half a game.

Matteo Berrettini's win over Pablo Cuevas also failed to cover the number as he decided to take the second set off which was dropped 6-1 and then missed multiple break points which would have earned the cover in the final set.

The only selection I was actually disappointed in was Guido Pella who was outplayed by Dominic Thiem, but with that in mind I had no right going 1-4 on the day.

On Saturday we are into the Semi Final matches at the tournaments being played this week and you can read my selections below.


Kei Nishikori v Daniil Medvedev: This is a fascinating Semi Final and one that is going to tell us a lot about Daniil Medvedev and whether he really has turned a corner on the clay courts like his results over the last two weeks are suggesting. Prior to the 2019 season, Medvedev had struggled to impose himself on opponents on the clay courts, but he has won some big matches already this year which is perhaps further evidence of the overall improvement the young Russian has made over the last twelve months.

The victories over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Novak Djokovic stand out and adding Kei Nishikori to that list would be really impressive. So far this week Medvedev has barely been tested as he has made comfortable progression through the draw into this Semi Final, and his numbers have remained impressive.

Daniil Medvedev is continuing to serve very well, but he is backing it up with some impressive returning which is making him a real threat on the surface. Last week he was beaten surprisingly by Dusan Lajovic considering the wins Medvedev had earned on the court in Monte Carlo prior to that and I do think Kei Nishikori is very comfortable on this surface and is playing well enough this week to win this pick 'em contest.

The Japanese star has yet to drop a set this week in Barcelona where he is a former Champion, but this is an opponent who is playing at a higher level than the previous ones he has faced.

However Kei Nishikori will be feeling very confident from the fact he has held 93% of his service games, although I do think that number is going to be given a severe examination by the Medvedev return game. Both players will be confident in their return game as Nishikori comes into this match having won 44% of return points this week and only a poor performance on the break points in the last Round prevented him from having a better number than the 37% of return games in which he has broken serve.

These two players have met three times in a little over twelve months and in that time it is Nishikori who has had the edge with two wins to one for Medvedev. In those matches Nishikori has had the slightly superior service numbers which have proven to be a difference maker, while Nishikori also dominated their one clay court match in the Monte Carlo Masters in early April 2018.

I can't deny it feels like Medvedev has improved on the clay in the time since that last match, but Kei Nishikori is one of the best players on the Tour on the surface and I will back him to edge to a win.

MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-4, - 4.74 Units (12 Units Staked, - 39.50% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (April 26th)

I didn't have the time to research the Tennis Picks for Thursday so there were no selections made to back up the win we had on Wednesday.

My mind was not ready to sit down and work things out after the Manchester derby on Wednesday evening and the slightly longer than expected journey back home due to roadworks being done on long stretches of the motorway. You don't want to hear my sob story here though, instead the focus is on the Tennis Picks from the Friday Quarter Final matches at the tournaments being played this week.


Guido Pella + 3.5 games v Dominic Thiem: There would have been a real hope for Dominic Thiem fans that their man was ready to get back to some of his best tennis after he won a big Masters title in Indian Wells. That came on the hard courts and the return to the clay courts would have been seen as a good time to put some strong runs together.

An early defeat in Monte Carlo was a real surprise, but Thiem has reached the Quarter Final in Barcelona without expending too much energy. Two good looking wins over Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and Jaume Munar will stand the Austrian in good stead, but his numbers are still some way down on where they have been on the clay courts in recent years.

Where he has been someone who holds somewhere in the low 80s in terms of percentage, Thiem is holding down at 71% on the clay courts in 2019. Even though Thiem has yet to drop a set in this tournament, his hold number has only improved to 77% and it is the return game that has been key to his wins.

His whole game is going to be tested by Guido Pella who is having a career season on the clay and is looking to maintain his consistency on the court. The Argentinian has reached a career best Ranking at the beginning of the week and is continuing to trend in a positive direction with a couple of strong wins on the clay of Barcelona.

Guido Pella dropped the first set this week, but he has won five sets in a row as he has produced three wins to reach the Quarter Final. His service numbers are slightly improved this week compared with the season, while Pella has also been returning well enough to believe he can challenge Dominic Thiem if the latter is not able to turn the switch and produce a much better level than he has for much of 2019.

These two played a tight match on the clay of Buenos Aires last season and it feels like Pella is coming into this Quarter Final in much stronger form. Coupled with Dominic Thiem's slight decline in form on the clay courts through 2019 compared with previous seasons and this could be a close match in which the games being given to the underdog look very appealing.


Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Anastasija Sevastova: An indoor court on any surface should be something that is very much a confidence booster for a player like Petra Kvitova. You may assume that the clay courts are not really the surface for someone who is as aggressive as Kvitova is on the court, but she has shown throughout her career that she can be very effective on the surface.

The serve certainly helps Kvitova as it can set up short balls on a surface where she would prefer to avoid being dragged into the long rallies that could see her break down as she continues chasing the lines. It was a very strong weapon for the Czech player last year and she began her tournament in Stuttgart with a comfortable win in the Second Round.

In recent years Kvitova has had something of a mixed time in Stuttgart with some early losses around a deep run at the event. She is favoured to see off Anastasija Sevastova who has had some really good results on the clay courts in recent years, but who has perhaps not matched up the kind of level that Kvitova has produced on the surface.

The Latvian has been the more consistent returner on the clay out of the two players in this match, but she has not managed the same kind of numbers Kvitova produced in 2018. It is also going to be a big challenge for Sevastova to deal with the Kvitova serve, although their previous matches have been close enough to think the underdog does have the chance to spring the upset.

However I am backing the favourite to win and cover considering the performances on the clay over the last twelve months. Petra Kvitova has been playing at a very high level over that time period and it is enough to believe she can win this match with a break more in each set of a straight sets match.


Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: This looks like a Quarter Final that is best suited to the clay courts with two players who are very comfortable on the surface looking to secure some vital World Ranking points. Pablo Cuevas is a veteran these days who is clinging onto his top 100 World Ranking as he has struggled for consistency, while Matteo Berrettini is approaching his career best World Ranking having hit his peak earlier in 2019.

Both players have made their way through to this Quarter Final in different ways. Where Berrettini has been pretty dominant in his two wins, Cuevas has had to dig deep and need a final set to come through his own matches and this has come just days after winning a title on the Challenger Tour.

Fatigue could be a potential issue for Cuevas who has performed well enough on the clay courts in 2019, but has struggled when it comes to the return of serve which has prevented him winning more matches. Those numbers have actually dipped on both serve and return in the tournament here in Budapest as Cuevas has held in 75% of his service games and broken in 25%.

Now Cuevas has to deal with Matteo Berrettini who has been a big time server on the clay courts in the last couple of years but who has struggled with his own return. So far in his three matches in 2019 the Italian has been actually much improved with his return, but the serve has suffered a little bit, although the two wins in Budapest have been impressive against Mikhail Kukushkin and Aljaz Bedene.

In Budapest Berrettini has been holding 85% of the service games played and has broken in 35% and those numbers are impressive enough to give him the edge in this Quarter Final. I do think all of the tennis that Cuevas has played in the last couple of weeks is going to make it difficult for him too and needing three sets to win his two matches this week and now playing for a third day in a row is a tough spot for the veteran to be in.

Matteo Berrettini won't have things all his own way, but he looks to be performing at a higher level than Pablo Cuevas in the conditions and I will back the younger man to come through with a win and a cover.

MY PICKS: Guido Pella + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-0, + 1.60 Units (2 Units Staked, + 80% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (April 24th)

Last week was not the best for the Tennis Picks, although I did finish up with a very slight profit from the Monte Carlo Masters.

It was not an easy week to be perfectly honest and the final two players being Dusan Lajovic and Fabio Fognini underlines the point as the likes of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal were upset earlier in the tournament. With both players losing early there may be some hope for others when the French Open comes around, although I don't think you can make sweeping statements about how tournaments are going to develop from one event.

This week the ATP Tour has moved to two different spots in Barcelona and Budapest, while the WTA Tour is also back with a couple of events in Istanbul and Stuttgart. Those events have begun, but I have not really had time to research the selections before Wednesday as I look to get the week off to a positive start.

The Thursday selections will be made in a much shorter post and likely posted on the morning of those matches because I will be at the Manchester derby on Wednesday evening and then I will be putting up a longer thread for the Friday Quarter Finals.


Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 games v Fernando Verdasco: Matches between Grigor Dimitrov and Fernando Verdasco have proven to be tight and competitive affairs for the most part, although the veteran Spaniard did crush Dimitrov in straight sets at the French Open last year. To be fair to Dimitrov, it wasn't a one-sided match despite the 3-0 scoreline in sets, but it does mean he has lost two of the three previous matches between these players on the clay courts.

With that in mind it may be something of a surprise I am backing Dimitrov over Verdasco in the Second Round in Barcelona, but I think the superior health of the younger player is going to have an impact in this match. Fernando Verdasco had lost his opening match in Marrakech and Monte Carlo against players he was favoured to beat and I would not want to read too much into his win over fellow veteran and compatriot Feliciano Lopez in the First Round here.

The win will give Verdasco some confidence, but a knee issue has prevented him from taking in some of the tournaments last month and being a new father may have distracted him from putting the time in on the court as he would have liked.

His head to head to with Dimitrov would be a slight concern when opposing him, especially as the Bulgarian is not the most effective on the clay courts. Two wins in Monte Carlo before being defeated by Rafael Nadal will help Dimitrov, but he was not dominating his matches and the last couple of years shows he is someone who will give his opponents a chance of beating him.

In the last couple of years Dimitrov is holding serve at less than 80% of the service games he has played on the clay courts. The return game was in good nick in Monte Carlo though and I expect Dimitrov to at least challenge the Verdasco serve which has seen opponents win 42% of return points against it.

One of the real issues for Verdasco in the last couple of weeks on the clay is the lack of success he has had on the return himself and I think Dimitrov may have the edge in this one. Playing in Spain could be tough with the fans likely to be behind Verdasco, but Grigor Dimitrov might just have the superior fitness on the court which can see him win and just about cover this number over three sets.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2019 Update: + 56.04 Units (593 Units Staked, + 9.45% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (April 27th)

Thursday was a solid recovery day for the Tennis Picks with both choices returning as winners to get this week back into a position where a strong end can record another positive week to add to the season totals.

While the Tennis Picks recovered, I am still on the road to full fitness after a cold knocked me out over the last couple of days. That does mean the Tennis Picks on Friday will also not have any analysis to go with them, but I have put the research together while lying in bed and trying to stay warm.

Another good showing on Friday will turn this week right around after a poor Wednesday and that is the plan from the Picks made.

MY PICKS: Aljaz Bedene - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
David Goffin - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-4, - 2.16 Units (14 Units Staked, - 15.43% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (April 25th)

There are four tournaments which are being played this week but I couldn't find any Tennis Picks from the first two days of the events in Barcelona, Budapest, Istanbul and Stuttgart.

That may be a surprise to read, but this season continues to move in a positive direction with another winning week put together in Monte Carlo last week. With that in mind I am sticking to the research and putting the numbers together like I have been over the last couple of months and so far it is working out as well as I could have hoped.

To be fair only a couple of matches came close to being picked and I won't lie here but instead admit that none of those would have been winners. I have to be positive that they didn't hit the threshold I am looking for which have produced good results, but hopefully it is just an indication that those were not good enough Picks and not highlighting a poor turn of results about to come out.


On Wednesday I do have five Tennis Picks which cover the ATP events in Barcelona and Budapest and the big WTA event in Stuttgart.

There are some big names out there this week with the majority of them getting underway on Wednesday having received byes or delayed First Round matches through the first couple of days.

They are going to be played across the day so let's hope for another strong week to add to those being experienced in the last couple of months as the clay court season goes on.


Aljaz Bedene - 3.5 games v Matteo Berrettini: Over the last couple of years Aljaz Bedene has reserved his best tennis for the clay courts and even the loss to Rafael Nadal last week in Monte Carlo won't have knocked too much confidence.

Bedene has to feel he can produce some really good weeks on the Tour during this part of the season as long as he can avoid being given an early test against Nadal who continues to look head and shoulders above his competition on this surface.

The field in Budapest is certainly one in which Bedene should feel comfortable and his numbers on the clay courts are very strong. On Wednesday he meets Italian Qualifier Matteo Berrettini who is making his biggest impact on the Tour at this level.

Bedene's record against players Ranked outside the top 100 on the clay courts has improved to 19-0 over the last fifteen months, and both the serving and returning numbers have been impressive.

He will be challenged by Berrettini who is very comfortable on the clay and built confidence and momentum with his run in Budapest. The serve can be an important weapon for Berrettini, but I think Bedene will challenge him on the return in ways the Italian will not have been used to.

His own return could have problems getting to grips with the Bedene serve and I think the higher Ranked player wins with a break more in each set of a straight sets win.


Karen Khachanov - 1.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: There are plenty of matches scheduled in Barcelona on Wednesday when the entire remaining Second Round is completed.

However only one takes my fancy and it has all the makings of a tough one between Karen Khachanov and Leonardo Mayer.

Both players are very well adapted to the clay courts and I think both will believe this is a winnable match for them on this surface. The serve is a huge weapon for both Khachanov and Mayer and I do think there will be plenty of holds of serve throughout the Second Round match.

There isn't a lot between these players and the layers are about right to have it close to a pick 'em contest, but I think the young Russian may be an improving player when it comes to the return of serve. That could be the key element to the outcome of this match with the expectation that Khachanov will earn the majority of the break point chances where those should come at a premium.

Mayer is a tough out on the clay courts and he has shown tremendous fight in his losses on the surface in 2018. However I think it will be Khachanov who makes the big plays when they matter the most and I will look for him to win in either two or three sets which will still give him every chance of covering this number.


Carla Suarez Navarro - 4.5 games v Veronika Kudermetova: This is a battle between a veteran of the WTA Tour and a youngster looking to make a name for herself, but I think that is going to be a big test for Veronika Kudermetova to do that.

For starters she has simply not been used to playing opponents who are in the top 100 of the World Rankings let alone one who is towards the upper echelon of the Tour.

Suarez Navarro is even better when it comes to playing on the clay courts and she has reached the Quarter Final in the usually tough field of Stuttgart four years in a row. The serve can be very vulnerable on any surface and especially on the clay courts which does reduce some of the enthusiasm in backing the Spaniard, but she has dominated those players she has played from outside the top 100 of the World Rankings on this surface.

The younger player will have nothing to lose and it may take Suarez Navarro a bit of time to work out her game which gives Kudermetova a chance to be competitive in the first set.

However I fully expect Suarez Navarro to get to grips with things and her consistency from the back of the court should be enough to help her hold a couple more times than Kudermetova and eventually cover this big number.


Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Angelique Kerber: It may be something of a surprise to note the relatively poor results Angelique Kerber has had on the clay courts over the last thirteen months. You would expect her defensive ability to be a strength on the slower surfaces, but her serve becomes even more vulnerable and I think she is in for a tough afternoon on Wednesday.

Kerber faces Petra Kvitova in a match which feels completely out of place as a First Round match in any tournament. That underlines the depth of the WTA Stuttgart field and Kerber also has to recover mentally from being destroyed by Kvitova when they met in Fed Cup action over the last weekend.

That match actually took place in the same place the Stuttgart tournament is played and Kvitova was a comfortable winner while Kerber was also beaten by Karoline Pliskova. Kvitova's win over Julia Goerges was another key result in the Fed Cup Semi Final as the Czech Republic moved past Germany away from home and I think Kvitova can double down on her win over Kerber.

Her serve is much more likely to bring up cheaper points than Kerber's, even on the clay courts, and I think that is a key difference between the players.

Kvitova's confidence can't be understated here either and I am looking for the Czech player to record another impressive win over Kerber.


Simona Halep - 5.5 games v Magdalena Rybarikova: I would expect Simona Halep to be amongst the favourites to win the French Open at the beginning of June, although she is going to have to cope with the pressure that comes with that expectation.

The clay courts are where Halep has tended to play her very best tennis, although still effective on all surfaces, and I would expect her to be too good for Magdalena Rybarikova who has not had a lot of competitive clay court tennis in recent years.

Injury have played a part in that, but I also think Rybarikova's game is suited to the quicker surfaces out on the Tour. She does have a solid looking win over Daria Kasatkina in the First Round which has to provide a real boost in confidence, but Rybarikova is going to be challenged by the exceptional returning Halep can produce on the clay courts.

This is a big spread when you think the indoor clay court in Stuttgart does have a different feel to the majority of clay court tennis the players will be used to playing. However I think Halep's returning numbers on the surface give her every chance to beat Rybarikova with a big enough margin to cover.

Rybarikova may feel she can cause some problems for Halep with her own return, but eventually I would think the Romanian can put a run of games together which helps her pull away for the win in this Second Round match.

MY PICKS: Aljaz Bedene - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Season 2018 Update: + 24.68 Units (488 Units Staked, + 5.08% Yield)