Boxing Picks 2023- Gervonta Davis vs Ryan Garcia (April 22nd)

One punch can change the Heavyweight Division.

But a number of punches landed in London last week and The Juggernaut was derailed by Big Bang Zhilei Zhang.

Make no mistake it was an upset, and a big one too, which now puts Joe Joyce in a tough position. At 37 years old, he needs to be more active when he returns, although thankfully that should be sooner than later having avoided any long-term issues to the right eye that was closed by the southpaw Zhang.

It wasn't a great performance and the reliance on the chin to walk through punches never accounted for an accumulation of punches doing the damage that we all saw at the Copper Box Arena.

There will be a tough road back for Joe Joyce, but if rumours are right and the top four Heavyweights are about to embark on a Middle East tournament, then the British fighter has time to get himself back into the mandatory position in the WBO Rankings. He does not need to face Zhang right away, but I do think Joyce has to be thinking about the rematch before the end of the year or otherwise you do have to wonder what will be the point of continuing.

Heavyweights can bounce back from losses and it has been the case throughout the history of the Division.

But for Joe Joyce, the adjustments have to be made quickly as he likely goes into that fight with Zhang.

Zhilei Zhang has given his own career a huge boost at 39 years old- he is turning 40 very soon- but he has the same issues as Joyce. Time is not on his side to earn a World Title crack and he might have to wait around eighteen months to have an opportunity if Tyson Fury, Oleksandr Usyk, Anthony Joshua and Deontay Wilder sign up to face one another.

There are options available to Zhang- a rematch with Filip Hrgovic, which could be a homecoming for the Chinese Heavyweight, while any fracture of the belts would mean he is a leading contender to earn that shot at a Title, even if it is not via a fight with the current Champions.

Taking a little time might be a good approach to see how the chips land with the rumoured Heavyweight Tournament, but the one positive for Zhang is that he is going be at the head of any queue unless Joe Joyce activates the rematch clause.

It was an important weekend, but April 22nd gives us the first truly Super Fight of the 2023 year when Gervonta Davis and Ryan Garcia meet at a strange catchweight of 136 pounds.

Before the DAZN cameras head to Las Vegas, Matchroom have a pretty good main event in Wales where Joe Cordina is looking to regain his World Title and become a two time World Champion. There is also a card over in Poland which will be broadcasted that features Alen Babic trying to win the Bridgerweight World Title against an unbeaten home fighter.

After a 2-2 week for the Boxing Picks, you can read my thoughts on the two big cards below.

Gervonta Davis vs Ryan Garcia

There is a strange catchweight to this big time Boxing main event, but that aside, this might be the best fight that has been made for the year.

Both Gervonta Davis and Ryan Garcia have to be given credit for stepping in with one another and putting their unbeaten records on the line in a bout where the winner is going to move onto a superstar level. The 136 pound catchweight hasn't made a lot of sense and some feel Davis is doing all he can to have the edge, but I have to tip my hat to Garcia for not allowing the demands and conditions to move his laser like focus away from the fight he has demanded for some time.

When they stand next to each other, you can see the physical advantages that Ryan Garcia will have in the fight and a disciplined performance will be needed.

He hits plenty hard too as nineteen stoppages from his twenty-three wins will underline, while Ryan Garcia has an edge in speed.

The expectation is that he will start fast against Gervonta Davis, who has been known to work his way into his fights, although there is a big question about Ryan Garcia's inactivity and level of competition to prepare for this fight. No matter how good you look, you can only really prove how good you are when going in with the best in and around your weight Division and I am not sure we have really been able to gauge how good Garcia can be.

This is only the third fight he is having since beating Luke Campbell in January 2021 and that level of inactivity could be dangerous for Ryan Garcia, who has a tendency to leave his chin hanging at times. I do think he will be more switched on for the power of Gervonta Davis, but Campbell managed to put Garcia down and that will not have been lost on Tank.

Gervonta Davis is fighting for the fifth time since June 2021 and so has been in the ring much more regularly than his opponent, while wins over Mario Barrios, Isaac Cruz, Rolly Romero and Hector Luis Garcia is a pretty nice run. Again, I do think Ryan Garcia might be another step up, but Tank Davis has shown he can handle the occasion in those bigger fights and his own power could be the difference in this one.

It would not be a surprise to anyone if Ryan Garcia is winning this one at the halfway mark, but I can imagine Gervonta Davis inching closer and closer to detonating as the Rounds tick over. The counter is going to be a huge weapon for Davis if he can catch Garcia on the way out and I do think the younger fighter may end up making a mistake or two as he looks to smother the work of his opponent with rapid fire combinations.

I think Davis will try and just time something big at the end of one of those combinations and he can begin to bully his opponent, even if Ryan Garcia is the bigger man physically. At some stage the rehydration clause and catchweight might just catch up with Garcia and this will allow Gervonta Davis to just step on the gas and hurt his opponent the longer the fight goes on.

Ryan Garcia is likely going to display some heart and resiliency, but Tank Davis is a very strong finisher when the moment arrives and I think he will find the shots to ensure this one is ended before the cards are needed.

At 24 years old, Ryan Garcia can come again and will likely operate at 140 plus pounds going forward, while Gervonta Davis can perhaps look for the next big Super Fight against the likes of Shakur Stevenson and Devin Haney.

The timing for the Davis counters should begin as Ryan Garcia just slows down after a fast start that is expected and so backing Tank to find the finish in the second half of this Twelve Rounder is the call.

The undercard is a decent one too and I don't think there are many Boxing fans that do not have a huge amount of respect for Gabe Rosado.

Many of those will have been glad that Rosado's fight with Gilberto Ramirez had to be called off at late notice with the veteran being placed in a very difficult situation.

Instead Gabe Rosado will be fighting at a more natural weight in a rematch against Bektemir Melikuziev after the highlight reel KO in June 2021. After being put down early, Rosado caught the Bully coming in and laid him out under the bottom rope and flat on his face and the veteran has not been happy with the other camp suggesting it was a lucky punch.

He is tough and game, but Melikuziev has bounced back from that defeat and I think he is going to break down an older Rosado and find a Stoppage in the second half of the fight. He showed he has the power to hurt Gabe Rosado and three tough losses since then may have just faded the American and I do think that shows up here.

We are also not that far away from seeing David Morrell headlining main event cards and the Super Middleweight has been calling for a contest with David Benavidez or Canelo Alvarez for the big prizes in the 168 pound Division.

He needed a last Round Stoppage in his last fight, but this feels like a step down in class when facing Yamaguchi Falcao with the WBA regular World Title on the line.

David Morrell hits hard and very quickly and this is a huge step up in class for Falcao despite being Ranked in the top six by the WBA and WBC. Nothing suggests he will be ready for Morrell and the Champion can win impressively and then call out the other big names in the Division in a showcase spot as the chief support to the main event in Las Vegas.

Shavkatdzhon Rakhimov vs Joe Cordina

An allowance was made for Joe Cordina to fight Kenichi Ogawa for the IBF Super Featherweight Title, but the deal was that he would have to make his first defence against Shavkatdzhon Rakhimov who had been the mandatory challenger.

Everything was set for that to happen after Cordina scored a stunning Second Round KO, but the Welshman has not had a lot of luck since the victory. Injuries meant twice postponing any fight with Rakhimov and Joe Cordina was eventually forced to vacate his World Title, although this time he was the one promised to earn a shot at the Belt once injury allowed.

The ten month ring absence is a concern, but Joe Cordina has been set as the favourite against Shavkatdzhon Rakhimov who won the World Title by beating Zelfa Barrett in November.

The southpaw was down early in the win over Barrett before an injury meant the British fighter could not continue in the Ninth Round. It had felt like Rakhimov had been getting on top at the time, but Zelfa Barrett will be looking to win on the undercard with an eye on facing the winner of this main event with the feeling that he should be the one holding the World Title.

Both fighters have power, but both have also looked a little drained at the 130 pound limit- it would not be a surprise if both Cordina and Rakhimov are soon operating in the Lightweight Division.

However, I do think Joe Cordina looked in the better shape and he has shown he can put his power through against World level opponents when winning the World Title in the manner he did.

Nothing in this one will come easy and Shavkatdzhon Rakhimov has plenty of pop of his own. He will force Cordina to weather a storm at some point, but I think Rakhimov is struggling more than his opponent to get down to 130 pounds and Cordina can win the World Title back in his home nation with another Stoppage win.

The undercard features the likes of the aforementioned Zelfa Barrett returning from the defeat to Rakhimov and Sandy Ryan will be looking to win a vacant World Title.

I think both of those fighters will win, but will most likely need the cards and the layers are very much on top of those prices.

Gavin Gwynne and Chris Woodruff are both going to be fighting in front of home fans and this rematch should be as exciting as the first British Title fight between the two last September. The Majority Draw was the decision on the day, and this is expected to be another exciting contest between the two, although picking a winner is not easy.

Luke Watkins has been pretty inactive since losing consecutive fights to Lawrence Okolie and Isaac Chamberlain and he is in the ring for just the fourth time since October 2018.

Three wins in a row is a positive, but Jordan Thompson is expected to defend his European Title in this Cruiserweight fight as the unbeaten Champion continues his progression towards a World Title challenge.

There are plenty of domestic rivals doing the same so Thompson will be looking to impress after being put down in the Tenth Round when winning the vacant European Title in August last year. His handlers will want Jordan Thompson to be more active this year and he should have the power to see off Luke Watkins in this one.

Jordan Thompson had not been past Four Rounds before the win over Ducar so that has to be a positive for him, but I think he can put his stamp on this fight early and make sure he can defend his Title in the first half of the contest.

Over in Poland, the main event looks like it is going to be a firefight between Alen Babic and Lukasz Rozanski with the vacant WBC Bridgerweight World Title on the line.

I am not convinced this Division will ever really take off between Cruiserweight and Heavyweight, but the two fighters won't be worrying about that.

Both are unbeaten and twenty-three Stoppages from twenty-five wins between them.

Lukasz Rozanski has been given home advantage thanks to his promoter winning the purse bid, but he has been out of the ring for almost two years.

Alen Babic has been more active, but has also been out of the ring for eleven months since needing the cards for the first time in his career. He was down in the First Round in the win over Adam Balski, and also needed his opponent to have a point deducted late in the fight to win a Decision, but Babic may feel that will make him rather than break him.

I don't think there is much to separate two fighters who are likely going to stand in the middle of the ring and trade big shots.

Neither of these Boxers tend to spend a lot of time in the ring in their fights and I do think someone is going to be hurt early. It will be a fight rather than highlighting the Sweet Science and so backing either fighter to score the early win looks a decent enough price.

The main support on the undercard will be provided by Martin Bakole who has signed with Boxxer in the United Kingdom which means being featured on Sky Sports.

He has spent considerable time over the last two months talking about dominant wins over the biggest names in the Heavyweight Division, all in sparring sessions, but it is time for Bakole to push ahead and drag some of those names into competitive fights.

The Heavyweight Division was shaken up last week with Joe Joyce losing and Martin Bakole is coming in off a big win over Tony Yoka.

He is pretty highly Ranked by the WBA, although any mandatory shot is going to be some time away with Daniel Dubois set to face Oleksandr Usyk as the Number 1 contender for this governing body. That is an issue for Martin Bakole, but being aligned with Boxxer should open up some big opportunities as long as he can look impressive on Saturday evening.

Martin Bakole faces unbeaten Ukrainian Ihor Shevadzutskyi who has won eight of his ten fights inside the distance.

Issues at home have made it tough for Shevadzutskyi to be as active as he may have wanted and he has needed the cards in his last two wins, while this is a big step up for him.

Those wins over Kevin Johnson and Kamil Sokolowski suggests Ihor Shevadzutskyi is still much earlier in his development than Martin Bakole who beat those two fighters in 2019 and 2017 respectively.

That should show up here and Bakole can begin to show some of his 'sparring power' by winning this fight in the first half of the scheduled Ten Rounds.

MY PICKS: Gervonta Davis to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Bektemir Melikuziev to Win Between 6-10 @ 3.25 Sky Bet (2 Units)

David Morrell to Win Between 1-6 @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

Joe Cordina to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 3.75 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jordan Thompson to Win Between 1-5 @ 4.33 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Lukasz Rozanski-Alen Babic Either Fighter to Win Between 1-4 @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)

Martin Bakole to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.37 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 16-26, - 7.46 Units (79 Units Staked, - 9.44% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (April 22nd)

The weather in Barcelona meant only a couple of matches were able to be completed and it does mean a very busy day is set to be played at the tournament on Friday.

That meant some of the Tennis Picks will have to wait to be completed after a tough Thursday at the Belgrade Open.

There are a couple of big tournaments being played this week, but the main Tennis story of the week has to be the decision made by Wimbledon to ban players from Russia and Belarus from competing.

It means the event will be missing some of the biggest names on the Tour- Aryna Sabalenka and Daniil Medvedev may have felt like genuine contenders to win the title in SW19- and I think there will be plenty around the tournament are offering themselves congratulations from separating from the pack.

Let's make that clear, the rest of the Tour is unaffected and it is Wimbledon and the UK tournaments which have felt they needed to make this statement.

Personally I have always felt that Tennis in the United Kingdom has been a sport which has largely been one catered for the Middle to Upper class, which means catered to a certain 'look' of a person.

I am not someone who has that look in all honesty.

The whole idea of a 'Royal Box' makes that point for the masses- Wimbledon is stuck in the past, whether that is the dress code or whether that is the arrogance of acting like they are the most important tournament in the world.

I feel this decision to ban players is made from an arrogant, 'we are better than you', angle as they go against the rest of the Grand Slam events and the two Tours.

It is a remarkable decision as far as I am concerned and sets a dangerous precedent- I am assuming Wimbledon are now going to be the moral guardians of the tennis world and so I would like to know what they are going to do about any Chinese players considering the treatment of the Uyghurs over there?

I am assuming a ban or is it that a certain shade of human being has to be affected before a stand is made?

Do you see how quickly politics and sport becomes a murky line to tread?

I am not sure how you can ban players for actions of their government and what exactly Wimbledon expects individuals to do? I've heard the nonsense from some suggesting the Russian and Belarusian players have to made big statements saying how much they oppose the war being raged, but I honestly don't understand this mindset.

Again, it feels murky and raises so many other questions and becomes a moment where Wimbledon are going to leave themselves open to be judged when they fail to act on other events happening all over the world.

This just feels like a really poor decision made by All England Club and I do think the LTA have made a big mistake too. Where they may have thought they would be applauded for taking the lead, I think they have just shown themselves to be hypocrites and the long feeling that the sport in the UK is catered for caucasians with money is hard to shift here.

In saying all that I think there has been enough pushback to believe there will be a reversal from Wimbledon and the LTA before the grass court season comes around. Criticism has been coming from several places and I think there will definitely be a re-evaluation of the decision.

It just feels wrong to ban individuals who are not representing their nations- so I understand why UEFA and FIFA have made their decisions, while I think the Davis Cup and Billie Jean King Cup organisers had to do the same. But Tennis is not a team sport and these athletes largely represent themselves, while I think these tournaments have long wanted to separate politics from their sports (else they wouldn't be playing big tournaments in China would they?).

Things will certainly become clearer next week when there are supposedly further talks set to take place, but I couldn't be more against the Wimbledon decision right now.

On Friday the majority of my Tennis Picks are from the matches that were supposed to be played on Thursday, but the weather decimated the schedule.

There are a number of Quarter Final matches being played at the three other tournaments that have been scheduled for this week, but my sole selection comes from Belgrade.

MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update; 6-10, - 9.10 Units (32 Units Staked, - 28.43% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (April 22nd)

There are always some difficult moments during the long Tour and that goes for players and those of us trying to make the right Tennis Picks.

I'm just having one of those trying times.

I have added at least two names to some of the others that are already on my list that have to be avoided at all costs- you can't really trust them to perform when you back them, but they will be unplayable the day you dare to oppose them (hi Kei Nishikori).

And no matter who I pick, it is never easy for them... At the moment the amount of break points and set points being missed or players serving for the match and then faltering massively that has been going on is laughable. If I pick an underdog though, they seem to a train-wreck that won't even think about competing.

I won't lie, it is nothing but frustrating when things like this happen and the worst thing part is you would prefer the train-wreck Pick rather than the one that is almost conspired against by the Tennis Gods.

I mean if your selection gets battered you put it down to one of those days- but what do you say when someone has a set and a break lead, fails to serve it out, misses match points and decides to lose six of seven games... Worst still, they will then win five in a row to win the match and miss the cover by one game (hi Filip Krajinovic).

Too often this has happened since the latter week of the Miami Masters and it has proved to be costly.

But how many times can it keep happening? I think Thursday will be a key day for me at least until the Madrid Masters.

If there are more of these types of weird things happening, I think I am going to take a short break and just hit the reset button. Over the last couple of days it has felt most of the big points have gone against my selections and that really is bad luck, because you can't keep picking players to get into a position where they are one point from crossing the line and falling short each time, just through sheer luck it won't keep happening.

BUT I am also not willing to have a bad run hurt me over and over- I regularly take those breaks between events to just settle things back to zero and then go again (just as I am writing this Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has lost the set 6-3 despite losing THREE more points- again that is almost statistically impossible seeing as you need two points more to win a single game). However, it is that kind of nonsense I refuse to accept as being a sign of a bad pick rather than a horrific turn of luck.

In saying that I have had some bad Picks too, but those are compounded by the others and I do need to be better.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 games v Alex De Minuar: It has not been the most productive of seasons for Alex De Minaur up to this point and he is going to be entering what has regularly become a difficult portion of the Tour for him. The Australian did win a ATP Title early on in 2021, but he is just 4-7 since then and the win in the Second Round here snapped a poor run that the Australian had been on.

I have to say that he has not really enjoyed much fortune with some close losses before another narrow defeat in Monte Carlo last week, while Alex De Minaur will be going up against a player in confident form and one that has played some of his best tennis on the clay courts throughout his career.

Stefanos Tsitsipas missed a couple of opportunities for Titles already in 2021, but he is finally on the board with a Masters success in Monte Carlo. While Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will go into the French Open as the favourites, the Greek star may have overtaken Dominic Thiem as the player most likely to be successful if the top two clay courters do falter.

He isn't just winning matches at the moment, but Tsitsipas is blowing through opponents and it was more of the same in his Second Round win over a solid clay courter in Juame Munar. This opponent is not as comfortable on the red dirt and you do have to say that Stefanos Tsitsipas is deserving of his spot as a big favourite, even if the handicap mark is one that can be hard to surpass if playing a B or C level performance.

We just haven't seen any of those in short time back on the clay after reaching the French Open Semi Final last year and Stefanos Tsitsipas is arguably playing much better now. The serve has always been a big weapon for Tsitsipas, but he is most impressing with his bullying on the return and following that up by putting opponent's under significant pressure which has led to breaks in 47% of return games played since the start of the Monte Carlo Masters.

Stefanos Tsitsipas isn't just building his numbers against cannon fodder as half of his six wins on the clay have been against top 30 Ranked opponents.

Alex De Minaur is a player I respect, but he is just 2-7 on the clay courts since 2019 and his service numbers in particular have made for disappointing reading in those matches. In that time the Australian has won just 55% of his service points played and that has led to a hold of serve in less than 65% of his service games on the clay, numbers that a player like Stefanos Tsitsipas will feel he can exploit.

There will be an additional reason for that confidence as Stefanos Tsitsipas has won six of the seven professional matches played between these two players. In those matches, the majority which have been played on surfaces that Alex De Minaur would favour, Tsitsipas has won 42% of return points played compared with De Minaur's 31% mark and there has been a considerable edge in holds of serve off the back of that.

They did play a competitive match Down Under in the ATP Cup, but that was on a hard court and was still won by Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-3, 7-5 a couple of months ago. On a surface that favours the Greek significantly more than Alex De Minaur, I do expect that gap to be slightly bigger at the end of this Third Round match.

Pablo Carreno Busta - 4.5 games v Bernabe Zapata Miralles: After dominating the first set, Bernabe Zapata Miralles may feel he was robbed of the biggest win of his career by Fabio Fognini's outburst that saw the fiery Italian Disqualified in the Second Round. He has never beaten a top 50 Ranked player on the clay courts and the 24 year old will be taking aim at that in the Third Round when taking on a compatriot in Barcelona.

This is a tough looking match for Bernabe Zapata Miralles as he gets set to take on Pablo Carreno Busta who has already won an ATP Title on the clay courts this season. It will perhaps surprise some to hear that I don't think the clay courts are Carreno Busta's best surface having had decent success playing on the hard courts, but the Spaniard is comfortable on the red dirt and his performances over the last couple of weeks have been encouraging.

He only needed a little over an hour to crush Jordan Thompson in the Second Round and Pablo Carreno Busta has produced some solid numbers in his limited time on the clay courts this season. Pablo Carreno Busta didn't play badly on the clay last season either and he has been a solid, if unspectacular, performer on the surface.

The level shown is certainly one that is going to test Bernabe Zapata Miralles, although the Qualifier has a number of wins under his belt that will mean he is confident. I also think the return game has to be respected in this match and Zapata Miralles will know that his opponent is one that can offer up chances on his own serve when he is not at his best, although Pablo Carreno Busta will also believe he can pressure someone who has won less than 60% of service points played on this surface in 2021.

That has largely come in matches against players Ranked outside the top 100 too and his numbers are dented when facing those players inside that number in the World Rankings. Bernabe Zepata Miralles might find the pressure produced from the other side of the net very difficult to deal with and if Pablo Carreno Busta is able to serve as well as he has been in his short time back on the clay he should have a real edge against his younger opponent.

I do think one of the sets will be quite competitive, but Carreno Busta should be able to create the majority of the break point chances and eventually wear down this opponent.

John Millman - 1.5 games v Taro Daniel: Neither of these two players has had a lot of success on the clay courts, but it is a good opportunity to earn a Quarter Final spot and put some vital World Ranking points in the bag. Both John Millman and Taro Daniel are likely to be very happy with the draw after solid First Round wins.

Both victories came in straight sets for these two players, but John Millman made arguably lighter work with his opponent than Taro Daniel. However, the latter is a Lucky Loser so Daniel will feel pretty comfortable in the conditions and also that he has nothing to lose having been beaten once already in Belgrade.

Even then it is hard to make much of a case for Taro Daniel who has long struggled on the clay courts and who has lost all three matches played against top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface in 2021. Taro Daniel has struggled to protect his serve in those three defeats and that has put pressure on his return game, one that Daniel has not been able to handle as the Japanese player has been beaten pretty routinely.

He has held just 71% of service games played on the hard courts in 2021, but that number dips to 54% when only considering matches against top 100 Ranked opponents.

John Millman may not be one of the elite clay courters in the world, but he is a top 100 Ranked player and I think the Australian will also lean on his past successes against Taro Daniel to give him some confidence. The veteran is a fairly steady player overall and John Millman has similar numbers as Taro Daniel both behind serve and return, although four of his five clay court matches have come against top 100 Ranked opponents compared with three of ten for Taro Daniel.

That has to be factored into the numbers, while Millman has a 3-1 lead over Daniel in the head to head. None of those matches have been on the clay courts, but John Millman has had a significant edge in the returning numbers and has created more break points than Taro Daniel in all four matches.

I expect that to be the case again in this Second Round match and I do think John Millman can get past Taro Daniel. His lack of feeling for the clay courts may make this closer than some of their previous matches have been, but I think John Millman should have the majority of chances and in general has been the better clay courter of the two and I expect that to show up by the time it is all said and done.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Pablo Carreno Busta - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

John Millman - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Aslan Karatsev - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-13, - 11.52 Units (42 Units Staked, - 27.43% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (April 16-22)

We are down to the final seven games for most Premier League teams, but a few of them have additional Cup commitments which have to be managed around those League games.

This weekend the FA Cup Semi Finals are set to be played on Saturday and Sunday, but the congested season means the Premier League games that have been postponed so those can be played have only been pushed into the midweek. That has an implication for Fantasy Premier League players too with GameWeek 32 being played from Friday through to Thursday next week and then GameWeek 33 beginning next Friday.

I will have a few thoughts on what was a difficult personal GameWeek 31 and my feelings for GameWeek 32 below, but first I will put down my analysis of how I feel the Premier League fixtures will go across the next six days.

I will add my opinion regarding the fixtures that have been postponed from this weekend and set to be played on Tuesday through Thursday after the deadline for GameWeek 32 has passed as far as the Fantasy Football game is concerned.

Everton v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: It hasn't been that long since both Everton and Tottenham Hotspur would have had genuine ambitions of finishing in the top four of the Premier League table. However, neither team has been consistent enough over the last several weeks to keep up with the sides above them in the table and this is almost a 'loser goes home' kind of contest.

Those are normally reserved for the PlayOff Series in American sports, but you do have to think the losing team here will be struggling for a European place let alone pushing towards the top four. Everton are 8th and Tottenham Hotspur are 7th in the Premier League table and there is already a considerable gap between both and the six teams above them.

The situation should mean this is an attacking game of football considering the draw does very little for either, while the other factor is that neither Everton nor Tottenham Hotspur can really have a lot of faith in their defensive strength to hold onto a narrow lead if they get into that position.

Everton are also being hurt by a huge injury list and they have a number of key players that are hoping the few days between Monday and Friday is enough for them to be passed fit for selection. The most notable is Dominic Calvert-Lewin, and it does make it feel like this is a fixture that a relatively healthier Tottenham Hotspur can take advantage of.

They are not easy to trust on current form though having blown leads in back to back Premier League games against Newcastle United and Manchester United. In saying that, Tottenham Hotspur have the attacking players that can cause plenty of problems for Everton even if there is a feeling they are defensively extremely vulnerable.

I can't imagine it will be as high-scoring as the FA Cup tie these two played in back in February, but I can see another game with at least three goals shared out. 3 of the last 4 at Goodison Park between Everton and Tottenham Hotspur have ended up that way and I don't think this is a fixture in which either team can afford to sit back and hope things work out for them.

My lean is that Tottenham Hotspur will find a way to secure the win, but it could be a fun fixture for the neutral to watch. With the defensive problems that have been evident for both teams, I think it would be a surprise if there are not at least three goals shared out between two outsiders for the top four places.

Newcastle United v West Ham United Pick: If you go back seven days this would have been a huge fixture for both Newcastle United and West Ham United, but after results last time out it now begins to feel like a fixture where there is a lot more on the line for the visitors.

A Newcastle United win and a Fulham defeat last weekend means the home team are now 6 points clear of the bottom three, while just 2 points separates Leicester City in 3rd and Chelsea in 5th place with West Ham United sandwiched between those two clubs.

The early kick off on Saturday afternoon could be a good game to watch for the neutral though and that is largely down to the performances of the two teams in the last couple of weeks. Both Newcastle United and West Ham United have been scoring goals for fun, but they have also displayed a huge amount of defensive vulnerability and that should mean an attacking fixture is in the offing.

Games between these two clubs have tended to be high-scoring ones and 6 of the last 8 overall have ended with at least three goals shared out. The last 4 at St James' Park have all ended that way too and Newcastle United and West Ham United head into this weekend having conceded at least two goals in 3 straight Premier League games either side of the international break.

Add in the fact that both have scored at least twice in both games since the March internationals and chances have tended to be created at a good clip and you do have to expect this fixture to be an exciting one. Neither team has looked capable of keeping a clean sheet and injuries are not exactly going to help on that front and this feels like another Premier League game that should produce goals.

16 of the 20 Premier League games played since the final international break of the 2020/21 season have ended with at least three goals shared out and I think this one will follow that short-term trend. An early goal will really kick the fixture off and the recent performances of the two teams suggest goals are the most likely outcome of the fixture.

Wolves v Sheffield United Pick: There isn't much on the line for Wolves and Sheffield United and it can be difficult for managers to keep players focused when that becomes the case.

I do think both sets of players do have something to prove in their remaining seven Premier League games to make sure they are still relevant next season when changes are expected at both Wolves and Sheffield United.

A lack of goals has really hurt Wolves this season and ever since Raul Jimenez went down with a serious injury, while the same can be said for Sheffield United who simply have displayed a lack of quality. Poor signings have not helped and the departure of Chris Wilder has not really sparked anything from the players either as Sheffield United have lost 5 in a row overall and 6 away games in succession.

It is very difficult to trust Wolves to win any game of football at odds on, but they have been creating chances in recent home games. Losing Pedro Neto is another blow for this team, but even without their talented creative force you do have to believe Wolves will have just enough to edge past a Sheffield United team who have been porous defensively.

The most likely outcome looks to be a narrow home win for Wolves- I do think Sheffield United will try and make life difficult, but they have not been good enough at the back and teams are creating a lot of good chances against them which is likely going to be the case again this weekend as Wolves earn the three points on the night.

Arsenal v Fulham Pick: There should still be plenty of motivation in the home dressing room after Arsenal made it through to the Europa League Semi Final and Mikel Arteta is trying to get his team to put a consistent run together.

Playing European Football is important for the development of the young players and there is still a hope that a strong end to this season will be good enough for Arsenal to at least be able to do that. Of course winning the Europa League would be a huge boost as it would mean a return to the Champions League, but Arsenal can't really afford to place all their eggs in one basket and have to keep the momentum of the last week behind them.

The Gunners have scored seven goals in back to back games over the last seven days, but the home form has been a little erratic. Arsenal have not won any of their last 3 at the Emirates Stadium, but that won't have Mikel Arteta drop his standards and he will be keen for his team to secure two more wins before they head to Villarreal in the Europa League Semi Final First Leg.

Returning from Prague to play this Sunday game is not an easy spot for Arsenal, but they have won 3 of their last 4 Premier League games after a Europa League tie. Ironically the one exception was after a Europa League tie played at the Emirates Stadium and the 3 wins have come when travelling back from mainland Europe, so there really are no excuses that the manager will offer for his team if they don't win this game.

Arsenal have been really good going forward in their last 3 games in all competitions and have backed that up with good looking defensive performances. The consecutive clean sheets will build confidence and there is plenty of pressure on their visitors after results last weekend.

Those results have left Fulham in 18th place in the Premier League table as they were beaten for a fourth Premier League game in a row. A win for Newcastle United means Fulham are now 6 points from safety with six Premier League games left to play and Scott Parker will have to pick a side that will eventually have to take risks.

It is hard to imagine that will be enough for Fulham to find the points they need to avoid relegation especially as they have continued to struggle for goals. While they have improved defensively from the early weeks of the season, Fulham are still guilty of too many mistakes and that has seen them punished.

This club have never won at Arsenal and I do think it is going to be difficult for Fulham to change that this weekend. They have had a week to prepare, but you do have to wonder if the confidence of the squad has been destroyed by the results of last weekend which means they could also be vulnerable to an Arsenal team looking to keep the wins coming.

I expect Fulham to be plenty motivated as they search for the points, but the quality has been lacking and Arsenal can hurt them on the counter attack if the visitors have to take risks. Returning from European action to play a team who have had a week off is not easy, but Arsenal have managed to produce a number of wins in that situation already this calendar year and can do the same here.

Manchester United v Burnley Pick: A 2-0 win in Spain had put Manchester United in command of their Europa League Quarter Final and the early goal on Thursday night made the Second Leg a comfortable evening at Old Trafford for the players. It has given Ole Gunnar Solskjaer the chance to rest some of his squad who have been stretched by this congested season and having no travel should mean no excuses for Manchester United when returning to Premier League action on Sunday.

They are almost certainly going to earn a top four spot in the Premier League, but the manager would love to see his team try and put some late pressure on Manchester City. There are 11 points between these rivals, but a win for Manchester United would mean they are back to single digits behind their rivals and with 18 points still to play for.

It is very unlikely that Manchester United could win the title now, but winning games is also important to maintain the momentum that has been earned since the March internationals were completed. Manchester United have won 4 in a row in all competitions since then and that includes back to back wins at Old Trafford against Brighton and Granada.

Manchester United have won 4 of their last 5 Premier League games here, but they won't be taking anything for granted when facing Burnley. In recent years Manchester United have played well at Turf Moor, but amazingly they have not led against Burnley at Old Trafford since February 2015 and they have met them 4 times here following that 3-1 victory.

3 of those had ended in draws before Burnley won here last season- in fact Burnley have led 0-2 in each of their last 3 games at Old Trafford but the first 2 saw Manchester United rally late for draws and they were not able to do that in their 0-2 defeat to Burnley in January 2020.

Burnley have led 0-2 in their last 2 away Premier League games at Everton and Southampton, but the last of those ended up with a 3-2 win for The Saints. With their recent history at Old Trafford, Burnley have to be respected here despite their current position in the League table and they have also won half of their last 6 away Premier League games.

However, this is a team that has given up some big chances in recent games and the potential absence of Nick Pope could make it more difficult for Burnley to earn a result against an in-form Manchester United team. They may cause some problems from set pieces and getting the ball into the box from wide areas, but containing Manchester United won't be easy.

The home team have been creating chances in recent games and have attacking threats who should be feeling good about themselves. The poor record against Burnley in recent fixtures at Old Trafford has to be one that Manchester United want to change and I think they will be too good in the final third for their visitors as the home team win and cover the Asian Handicap mark.

Leeds United v Liverpool Pick: The playing surface at Elland Road is far from the best in the Premier League and there is going to be changes made between this season and the next, but it should not be one that prevents Leeds United and Liverpool producing a game filled with goals on Monday Night Football.

These two teams still have some real ambitions to fulfil in the 2020/21 season and this is a big game for both clubs, while both teams are in decent form. Leeds United and Liverpool have both won 3 Premier League games in a row, but it should be noted that the underlying statistics suggest the visitors are playing at a consistently higher level in those games than Leeds United.

All credit has to be given to Leeds United for their wins over Fulham, Sheffield United and Manchester City, but they were a touch fortunate in 2 of those victories. On another day they would have been beaten comfortably at Manchester City last weekend having punished their hosts with their limited attacks, but Leeds United do play an attacking brand of football which will challenge this makeshift Liverpool defence.

There is no denying that Liverpool are missing some key players in their backline, but they have still been able to produce better than some would have expected. The centre half pairing are not being chopped and changed as much and there is an understanding developing, even if the young defenders are not able to completely erase defensive mistakes.

It wouldn't be a massive surprise to anyone if Leeds United were to score in this fixture, but they could be without Raphinha and that is a big blow for the home team. Defensively they are without Liam Cooper and I do think this Liverpool team are looking like they are not too far away from their best in the final third.

The visitors have been creating good chances and the fixture list remaining looks like one that will give them every chance of finishing in the top four of the Premier League. This is one of the more difficult games left on their list, but Liverpool are good enough to out-score Leeds United and I think they are likely to pick up a win in a fixture that sees at least two goals shared out.

Chelsea v Brighton Pick: European Football has been rocked by the news that twelve clubs have decided they are going to push forward with a 'Super League' and six of those clubs are playing in the English Premier League.

Emotions are high at the moment and my personal thoughts would involve a lot of expletives- I am a Manchester United fan, but I would chuck them, along with the other five, out of the top Division and let them rot in their mess.

The Premier League will be able to get past the loss of clubs who have long lost their soul, and it is going to be interesting to see how players will react going forward.

For now the focus for Thomas Tuchel and his Chelsea players is to make sure they take advantage of the West Ham United defeat on Saturday. This means Chelsea are in control of a top four place and a return to the Champions League (if UEFA allows them to compete next season) and Tuchel will be looking for his team to take some momentum into the big game at the London Stadium coming up.

A win over Manchester City in the FA Cup Semi Final was impressive, but Chelsea will likely make some changes for this fixture. Even then they have shown quality at both ends of the field that makes Chelsea favourites to beat a Brighton team who play attractive football, but who will give up opportunities for their opponents.

I do think Brighton can cause problems for Chelsea with their approach and if the players in the home camp have been distracted even slightly after the revelations of the last forty-eight hours then this could be a potential upset.

However, I think Tuchel is a manager who will find a way to keep the group focused on what they can control and that is this football match. The stunning loss to West Brom has really been an outlier as to the levels being produced by Chelsea and I think they have bounced back effectively from that.

This won't be easy against a rested opponent, especially as Chelsea have had two tough games since Brighton last played, but the top four race is back on. While I would love to see all of the six clubs that have signed up to this awful Super League proposal suffer massively, I think Chelsea will prove to be too good for Brighton and secure a victory behind another stingy defensive performance.

Tottenham Hotspur v Southampton Pick: The new European Super League has some of the big names in European history attached to it, but it is laughable that a club like Tottenham Hotspur are a part of that- if that isn't proof of a money grab then I don't know what is!

Only twice have Tottenham Hotspur been English Champions and the last of those came in 1961 so you can easily put them in amongst the top twenty European clubs(!) Personally I think they are joke and any little respect for this club has vanished.

I have to take a neutral approach to this Premier League fixture though and my pick as to how it will end.

The Sacking of Jose Mourinho would have been headline news a couple of days ago, but this is just another big headline on a day when European Football has descended into a civil war. Tottenham Hotspur's poor run has been cited as the reason for the decision, although it has surprisingly been made just days before the club are looking for their first trophy since 2008 (what an elite club hey?!)

Ryan Mason will take over until the end of the season and Spurs are still in a position where they can challenge for a top four place in the Premier League, although whether they are allowed to take part in the Champions League is another discussion to be had. Anything less than a win would likely be the end of those ambitions on sporting merit, but Tottenham Hotspur could be relaxed and able to play their best game if the players were indeed fed up with Mourinho.

Harry Kane could be out, but the likes of Dele Alli and Gareth Bale may have something to prove and Tottenham Hotspur could take advantage of the disappointment that Southampton may be feeling after losing their FA Cup Semi Final against Leicester City. Southampton didn't play badly and were a touch unfortunate, but they have lost 7 of their last 8 away Premier League games and continue to concede too many goals.

Southampton will be dangerous when getting forward against a Tottenham Hotspur defence which has to be short of confidence. However, their own defence is likely to be tested and I think the home team will likely win a game that features at least two goals on the night.

Aston Villa v Manchester City Pick: The defeat in the FA Cup Semi Final will have hurt, but talk of the Quadruple will no longer be a distraction to Manchester City who may not have too many more chances to become proper European Champions.

Pep Guardiola will also want to put any lingering doubts about winning the Premier League to bed as soon as possible as they hold an 8 point lead over rivals Manchester United with six League games to play. A win on Wednesday will put them well on the way and Manchester City should be focused despite the League Cup Final to be played on Sunday.

More changes than expected were made for the FA Cup Semi Final and the manager has made it clear that he will be rotating his squad to maximise their ability to perform. Pep Guardiola got it wrong on Saturday, but he won't mind as long as his team performs as they should and there should be a reaction from them on Wednesday.

They will head to what should be a motivated Aston Villa squad who will be amongst a number of Premier League clubs sickened by the European Super League proposals that the 'Big Six' have joined up. It closes the shop to the elite for clubs like Aston Villa who ironically have one more European Cup in their trophy cabinet than Manchester City, Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur combined.

Aston Villa are well rested, but the team are struggling for form and losing Jack Grealish is a real blow to their chances. A strong team will be selected, but even a Manchester City team with changes should be too good on the night as long as their own players are focused on the football to be played rather than the fallout from the European Super League announcement.

I expect the players to be able to do that and I think Manchester City likely win by a couple of goals here as Tottenham Hotspur did last month.

Leicester City v West Brom Pick: This feels like a bigger game for Leicester City than West Brom when these two meet in the Premier League on Thursday and that is largely because the latter's survival hopes have been dented by Newcastle United's upturn in form.

West Brom may have won back to back Premier League games, but they are still 9 points behind Burnley in 17th place and there are just seven League games left to be played.

The pressure is on them, but you can double that for Leicester City who are still clinging onto a top four spot in the Premier League after an inconsistent run. They faltered badly down the stretch last season and Brendan Rodgers was hoping those experiences would just strengthen the resolve of his squad this time around, but the pressure has been put on Leicester City by West Ham United, Chelsea and Liverpool.

The latter two teams play on Monday and Tuesday and if both win then Leicester City will really have to deal with the memories of last season. They simply cannot afford to drop points in a fixture like this one and I do think Leicester City are playing well enough to edge to the points, especially with James Maddison back and likely to play a part in this one.

West Brom have looked good of late, but this is a team who have long struggled and I don't think they can be fully trusted. They may cause some problems for Leicester City, but West Brom have continued to struggle defensively and that is where the home team can edge to the points.

It is a Midlands derby so there may be some factors that are hard to judge, while Leicester City have a miserable home record against West Brom down the years. However, this Leicester City team are off a confidence boosting FA Cup Semi Final win and I think they can be backed to edge to the points in a big Premier League game.

MY PICKS: Everton-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals

Newcastle United-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals

Wolves & Under 3.5 Goals

Arsenal

Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Liverpool & Over 1.5 Goals

Chelsea - 0.75 Asian Handicap

Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals

Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Leicester City - 0.75 Asian Handicap

Fantasy Football GameWeek 32

A poor decision...

Bringing in Marcos Alonso turned out not to be the correct transfer after the Spaniard was left out of Chelsea's win at Crystal Palace and it was not only compounded by the other option, Trent Alexander-Arnold, banging in a winner for Liverpool against Aston Villa.

No, what hurt the most was removing Stuart Dallas for Alonso after the Leeds United defender not only scored once, but twice in the win at Manchester City.

Remarkable, but that has been my feeling for much of the 2020/21 Premier League season with the congested nature seemingly meaning you can't really plan for events as much as you may feel you can.

Stuart Dallas has done virtually nothing for weeks and that was despite his Leeds United team facing two of the bottom three teams, but not for the first time the returns have come in fixtures where you may not feel the player is likely to have a big impact. Lucas Digne, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Luke Shaw and Diogo Jota have all hurt me in those situations at various times over the last two months too, but it is just the way things have gone in general in 2020/21.

The suggestions are that the Premier League are very close to ratifying the change to the end of the season which is going to see the current GameWeek 35 moved back a few days and a new GameWeek 37 beginning in the midweek before the final weekend of the season. That was originally looking like being a free week in which any games left that need to be scheduled would be played, but the changes are likely to be made so every team has at least one home game in front of limited fans in the 2020/21 season.

For the Fantasy game the impact is that we do have at least one more really big Double GameWeek coming up and that is expected in GameWeek 35 as those teams involved in the FA Cup Final will have their Premier League game pushed forward a few days. There are at least two fixtures that are expected to be slotted into that GameWeek 35 to make a double for four clubs, while that number could increase to eight clubs depending on how the FA Cup Semi Finals go this weekend.

That decision by the Premier League should be confirmed before the end of next week and makes the Wild Card I want to play before GameWeek 33 a little easier to manage, although for now the focus has to be on GameWeek 32.

Only Tottenham Hotspur are on a Double GameWeek this week and the decision on a Captain is obviously going to be backing one of those players.

I am chasing a higher spot and that means I want to go with the differential- I imagine most will pick Harry Kane, but I am thinking of bringing Heung-Min Son and potentially even Triple Captaining him this week.

With Dominic Calvert-Lewin ruled out by Carlo Ancelotti, I can bring in Kelechi Iheanacho and upgrade Ilkay Gundogan for the South Korean, although it would mean taking a hit. My original plan had me moving Raheem Sterling for Son as my sole transfer this week, but there is some doubts about whether Ruben Dias, Gundogan and Marcos Alonso and whether they will start this week which means I can't afford to have a weak bench having only had ten starters last week.

This is my thinking so far, and I am unlikely to reach the deadline with plans to be out of the house on Friday afternoon (the beer gardens are finally open and I've spent far too long at home).

Activating the Wild Card in GameWeek 33 is still the most likely plan considering the likes of Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur are playing a blank, but I need to have a good think about how I want to manage my resources down the stretch. It has been a hard season, but there is still time for a very strong finish and at least have some confidence to take into Euro 2020 Dream Team and FPL play in the 2021/22 season.

NBA PlayOffs First Round Picks 2019 (April 13-April 22)

NBA PlayOffs 2019- First Round Series

The regular season is over and we are down to the sixteen teams that are trying to win the NBA Championship.

The PlayOffs begin on Saturday and the first four games of each First Round Series is going to be played between April 13th and April 22nd and I will use this thread to hold all of my selections from those games.

I was enjoying a pretty good start to the NBA regular season when it came to the NBA Picks, but I thought I just needed to step back and make sure I am making the selections for the right reasons. We will soon know if that was the right decision or not as I look to back up the strong PlayOff showing in 2018 which included a solid 3-1 return in the NBA Finals.

Saturday 13th April

Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: There are some big expectations around the Philadelphia 76ers but they look like they will be beginning the PlayOffs without Joel Embiid. That is a serious loss for a team that have gone 8-10 without him this season and who have yet to form the chemistry they would have wanted since Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris have joined the team.

Of course they can get things together once the Play Offs begin, but it has been very difficult for teams to turn on the switch when they have not been able to find the consistency at any time in the regular season. The 76ers will be looking to show what they are about when they play Game 1 to open the NBA PlayOffs, but they are facing a Brooklyn Nets team who have been in Play Off mode for some time.

The Nets had to battle for their place in the top eight in the Eastern Conference and they return to the PlayOffs since 2015 when Brooklyn had splashed the cash to try and join the elite in the NBA. This Brooklyn team have surpassed all expectations and they know they will have to play at their best if they are going to find a way to get past the 76ers.

These teams split four games in the regular season and both teams won one of those games on the road. The last time they met came at the end of March and Philadelphia were able to produce a 13 point win on the day, although they did have Embiid available to them.

Now they have entered the PlayOffs with four losses in the last six games compared with the Nets who have won three in a row. The Nets are not as strong on the road as they are at home, but they have been shooting the ball well enough to keep things competitive against the Philadelphia 76ers and edging them out on the boards could make the points on offer for Brooklyn look very appealing.

Philadelphia are capable of getting very hot from the field and pulling away for a comfortable win, but I think the Nets can be trusted having gone 6-1 against the spread in their last seven road games. I know the 76ers have got a stunning record when facing teams with losing records on the road, but Brooklyn should have learnt plenty from the more recent loss to the 76ers and they can keep this one closer than the layers imagine.

The Nets having familiarity with the 76ers through their Division rivalry could be key here with those teams in the Number 6 Seed having a very strong record against the spread in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs against the Number 3 Seed. In Game 1 I will take the points with the underdog.

Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors Pick: The Toronto Raptors did not quite have enough to stay with the Milwaukee Bucks for the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference, but they remain one of the teams favoured to reach the NBA Finals. Seven wins from their last eight games shows the Raptors are ready for the NBA PlayOffs and the depth of the team will have caught the eye of many as that run came through a time when they began to rest players.

One of those wins was against the Orlando Magic who returned to the PlayOffs having missed the post-season in six years in a row before earning the Number 7 Seed in the Eastern Conference.

The Magic made their way into the post-season with four straight wins to end the regular season and that momentum could make them dangerous in Game 1 as they look to steal home court advantage. However they have to hope momentum has not been lost with the regular season ending on Wednesday and the PlayOffs beginning on Saturday, while being in Play Off mode for a while can be difficult for teams who may just relax once they get into the first post-season game.

There is a lot to like about Orlando who have been shooting the ball efficiently from the field and coupling that with the size and energy around the boards to make it difficult for opponents. The Raptors have been shooting the ball just as efficiently as the Magic though and they have been lights out from the three point range which does give them a chance to pull clear if they find their rhythm early in this one.

Games between these teams have been competitive in the regular season and Orlando have tended to be under-rated in those games as proven by their 4-1-1 record against the spread in the last six between these teams. The Magic are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games against teams who have won at least 60% of games played.

They are also 8-2 against the spread in their last ten facing a team with a winning record and this looks like enough points to back the underdog in this one.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State Warriors Pick: They might have finished with the best record in the Western Conference, but there were many times during the regular season when it felt like the Golden State Warriors were going through the motions. Some of that had to be down to the fact that they have won the NBA Finals in three of the last four years and they are chasing a third NBA title in a row with the intensity expected to ramp up in the Play Offs.

There have been times during the regular season when the Warriors did turn up the temperature of their play and that was the case when they last played the Los Angeles Clippers last week. Now they face the Clippers in Game 1 of the NBA PlayOffs as they chase the first of sixteen games they need to win to win another NBA Championship.

It is something of a surprise to see the Los Angeles Clippers in the NBA PlayOffs and not many would have expected that of them when they traded away Tobias Harris back in February. A number of rookies have stepped up to join veterans Lou Williams, Danilo Galinari and Patrick Beverley to propel the Clippers into the post-season, but four losses in the last seven games meant they finished with the Number 8 Seed.

The Clippers come into the PlayOffs having continued to perform effectively Offensively, but I think it is going to be a challenge against the Golden State Warriors. Draymond Green could be missing for the Warriors to perhaps weaken the Defensive play, but Golden State have been shooting the ball very well themselves and I think they have a little too much all around for the young Clippers trying to deal with the new environment of PlayOff Basketball.

It can be difficult to back Golden State at home in the last couple of years as they tend to be asked to cover big numbers like the one in front of them in Game 1 on Saturday. However they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games off a straight up loss, and the defending Champions have gone 17-9-1 against the spread in Game 1 of the NBA PlayOffs the following season.

Los Angeles have a 4-1 record against the spread in their last five visits to the Oracle Arena, but they were beaten by 27 points earlier this month. I will look for the Warriors to make a statement in their opening NBA PlayOff game on Saturday and I will look for them to cover the number.

San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets Pick: The San Antonio Spurs maintained their streak of consecutive seasons reaching the PlayOffs and they are the team with the longest record in all American sports in doing that. They finished with the Number 7 Seed in the Western Conference and the San Antonio Spurs have surprised many who felt they would not be good enough to finish in the top eight of a loaded Conference at the start of the season.

It seems like that doubt is going to be used as motivation for the San Antonio Spurs, but it may not be enough when they take on the Number 2 Seeded Denver Nuggets. If some doubted the Spurs, most would have felt the Nuggets were going to come up short in their bid to return to the PlayOffs having missed five post-seasons in a row.

Denver will be using the motivation of being doubted to help them too and home court could be key for them with the altitude at Mile High proving difficult for teams to handle. All four of the regular season games between the Nuggets and Spurs were won by the home team including a blow out in favour of Denver earlier this month.

Momentum is behind the Spurs who have won their last three regular season games compared with the Denver Nuggets who finished off with three wins and four losses. There was no real concern about the way Denver were finishing as Head Coach Michael Malone made sure he was resting key players and looking to keep them fresh for the PlayOffs.

In recent games the teams have been performing at a similar level with decent Defensive performances backed up by good Offensive performances. The Spurs may have a very slight edge when it comes to shooting the three ball at the moment and if they can find themselves getting hot from that distance it will remove the power the Nuggets have around the boards.

However it can be difficult to trust a team that might not to get hot from three point range and I think the Nuggets can back up their blow out win of the Spurs earlier this month. The favourite has actually improved to 10-4 against the spread in the last fourteen games in this Series.

The public look to be behind the Spurs with the points and i do think the Nuggets are going to be highly motivated to show they are a deserving Number 2 Seed in the Western Conference. Denver look to have been focusing on Game 1 a lot longer than the Spurs who were jockeying for position right to the end of the regular season and I think that can potentially show up in Game 1 with the intensity of the home team higher than the visitors.

The Number 2 Seed being opposed by the public have a very strong record against the spread in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs and I will look for the Nuggets to clear the handicap.


Sunday 14th April
Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics Pick: The relatively strong end to the regular season will have just given the Boston Celtics fanbase some optimism to take into the NBA PlayOffs despite finishing with the Number 4 Seed in the Eastern Conference. With LeBron James playing in the Western Conference for the first time in his career, the Celtics were supposed to be the team to beat in the East, but they have struggled to gel together in the way they would have imagined, although recent signs have been more encouraging.

They host the First Round Series with the Indiana Pacers thanks to two wins over them in the final couple of weeks of the regular season. That gave Boston the tie-breaker and ultimately earned them Home Court advantage in the First Round Series and there is some pressure on the Pacers to respond.

Inconsistent form in the final couple of weeks of the regular season has not helped the Pacers who have lost six of their last ten games and tend to play better than the sum of their parts. The 20 point home loss to the Boston Celtics has to be erased from the mind, but it is hard to ignore the fact that Indiana suffered two blow out losses in the three defeats Boston during the regular season.

The more efficient play in the last two games between these teams came from the Celtics, although the loss of Marcus Smart through the next couple of Rounds is going to be a blow to the team. They should still have the depth to beat the Indiana Pacers, especially if Boston can up the intensity on the Defensive side of the court even without arguably their best Defender in Smart.

Even then I think the Celtics may have the edge on the boards and they have players who have produced big post-seasons to give them the edge in Game 1 and in the Series in general.

Boston have been a hard team to trust in home games this season, but Indiana are 7-16 against the spread in their last twenty-three road games. The Pacers have also struggled against teams with winning records at home by going 4-12 against the spread in their last sixteen in that spot and I am going to look for the Celtics to confirm their dominance over this rival by winning by a margin to cover the number in Game 1.


Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: The Oklahoma City Thunder will be a little disappointed they have not earned a Home Court First Round Series in the NBA PlayOffs, but a five game winning run to end the regular season will have given them some momentum. One of those wins saw them come from double digits behind in the Fourth Quarter to knock off the Houston Rockets and it is a win that has proved to be pivotal to who they are going to face in the First Round.

That win for the Thunder allowed the Portland Trail Blazers to win their last three regular season games and steal the Number 3 Seed from the Houston Rockets. It might not have been the match up that the Trail Blazers would have wanted though as they were beaten in all four regular season games against Oklahoma City, although none of those came by huge margins.

There is going to be a mental obstacle to overcome for the Trail Blazers too who won't have forgotten being swept out of the PlayOffs by the New Orleans Pelicans twelve months ago. Portland were beaten in Game 1 and Game 2 at home in that First Round Series so there are going to be some tensions to deal with on Sunday.

An injury to Jusuf Nurkic is a huge blow for Portland, while CJ McCollum has returned from a ten game absence and yet to really lock in back on the court. That does mean Damian Lillard is under more pressure to perform too and his match up with Russell Westbrook is going to be key to the Series.

Injuries are not just being felt by Portland as Paul George has been struggling for the Thunder. He is going to play in this one, although perhaps not at 100% and that is a concern for Oklahoma City considering how well George has played against Portland all season.

I can see this being a close Series despite the sweep the Thunder earned in the regular season. Both teams match up well and each Game could be decided by which of the two teams finds their rhythm best from three point range.

Being the underdog should motivate the Oklahoma City Thunder and I do think taking the points is appealing in Game 1. The Thunder are 4-1 against the spread in their last five when playing a team with a winning record, while Portland have to deal with the ghosts of PlayOffs past and some tough losses in the post-season.

Mentally the road team should have the edge and the Number 3 Seed has not been a good team to back when playing Divisional opponents in the First Round of the PlayOffs like Portland are having to do here. I am going back yet another road underdog to get off to a good start by covering the number at the least.


Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: Go back three weeks and it would have felt like the Detroit Pistons were not very far away from securing their spot in the PlayOffs. Injuries and a loss of form really hurt the team though and they needed to win their final two regular season games to earn their spot in the post-season, although the 'reward' is facing the team with the best record in the NBA through the regular season.

The task becomes that much bigger for Detroit when thinking they were swept in all four regular season games with the Milwaukee Bucks and star player Blake Griffin could be missing for Game 1.

Milwaukee look to be coming into the PlayOffs as healthy as they could have hoped after getting Giannis Antetokounmpo some rest down the stretch. He is ready to showcase his talents on the big stage, but the Bucks fans might be a little wary knowing their team have lost eight First Round PlayOff Series in a row including a 4-3 defeat to the Boston Celtics twelve months ago.

This does feel like a new era for Milwaukee though and it would be a stunning turn of events for them to be beaten by a team they dominated through the regular season. The average margin of victory was almost 15 points per game so it is no surprise to see the Bucks as a big favourite in Game 1 when you add in the factor of Griffin being a doubt.

In recent games the Bucks have been much more efficient shooting the ball and I do think their depth is going to be a little too much for Detroit in Game 1. This is a difficult first game anyway, but adding to that is the emotion put into the last couple of regular season games to earn a spot into the PlayOffs which has to have had an effect on the Detroit players.

Milwaukee are 13-7 against the spread as a double digit favourite this season, they are 7-3-1 against the spread in their last eleven at home against Detroit.

I do think Detroit will play with nothing to lose and they could be a little more problematic for the Milwaukee Bucks later in this Series, but this first game looks to come at a much better time for the Bucks. It is a huge spread, but I have opposed one already with a Number 1 Seed from the Western Conference and I will lay the points with this Number 1 Seed too.


Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets Pick: The Houston Rockets blew a big Fourth Quarter lead in their final regular season game against the Oklahoma City Thunder and that eventually knocked them down into the Number 4 Seed in the Western Conference. It does mean they get to host this First Round Series, but there is no doubting the tough set of games in front of them.

The Utah Jazz split four games with the Houston Rockets in the regular season, although they have to recover mentally from a blow out home loss to them in February. This is a tough team that won't allow that to bother them in this First Round Series, but Utah need to make a positive start through the first two games both played on the road.

There won't have been too many associated with the Jazz who have forgotten being beaten in five games by the Rockets in the Western Conference Semi Finals last season either. Once again it makes Game 1 crucial to them to make sure the players know they can compete with a very strong Houston team who had a very good end to the regular season to earn a Home Court Series.

You know what you are going to get from Houston from an Offensive point of view as they will see a lot of James Harden coupled with heavy three point shooting. Despite knowing what is coming, it can be tough for the Utah Jazz to deal with that if they are not able to pick up their intensity on the Defensive side of the court.

In recent games Utah have not been as strong Defensively as they would have liked and that is going to be magnified if Houston continue to play as well as they have been on that side of the court. The reality is that Utah have to make these games low-scoring Defensive ones if they are going to upset the Rockets.

Game 1 could prove to be a chance for them to do that if Clint Capela is still not feeling at 100% which may give Utah the opportunity to dominate the boards. It sounds like Capela will go on Sunday, but Utah can still earn the edge on the glass which can provide them the platform to make this a competitive game.

I do think it is dangerous to oppose Houston who can blitz teams with a heavy dose of the three point shooting. They have been playing very well at home and covering numbers, but I am hoping the delay between the regular season and start of the PlayOffs can just cool down Houston to keep this one close for the road team.

Utah are 20-5-1 against the spread in their last twenty-six games off a straight up loss, while they are 10-3 against the spread in their last thirteen on the road. They have gone 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four in Houston and the road team is 6-1-1 against the spread in the last eight in this series.

This feels like just enough points to take the start with the road team.


Monday 15th April
So every Game 1 from the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs 2019 is now in the books and the favourites have finished up with a 5-3 record against the spread.

Some of them look like they are going to be capable of sweeping through the First Round, although I am expecting better from a few of the teams who did slip to a defeat in Game 1. We had some huge upsets on Saturday afternoon and lower Seeded teams will be looking to move into a 2-0 position before returning home for two games, but this is a time when some of the better teams will be looking to respond and bounce back from a defeat.

There will be some big spreads to cover in Game 2's that are being played over the next three days, and now is the time to really start capping these games and not being dragged into given too much of a factor to how Game 1's have gone.


Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: A best of seven First Round Series means none of the teams who have lost the first game should be feeling like things are a lost cause. That is especially the case for those teams who have dropped the first game at home and historically those teams have been very strong at bouncing back when they are playing at home after a defeat.

There is a strong trend that shows teams in the same position as the Philadelphia 76ers have gone 20-7-1 against the spread in this spot and it does make it difficult to want to oppose them.

However they are going to need to make some serious adjustments if they are going to get the better of the Brooklyn Nets after the visitors stole Home Court in this First Round Series on Saturday. One of the main problems for the 76ers was the fact they struggled so badly to shoot the ball from three point range compared with the Brooklyn Nets and you do have to wonder if Philadelphia will be as poor again from the outer arc.

It seems unlikely, but Joel Embiid is not quite at 100% and I do think that is having a negative impact on the team. There is going to be pressure on Philadelphia after the home team turned on them in Game 1 and Ben Simmons won't have helped the situation by having a shot at the fans after that defeat.

Simmons has really been struggling with his shot and the 76ers are going to need someone to help Jimmy Butler and Embiid. Tobias Harris, JJ Redick and Mike Scott all had poor showings in Game 1, but they will feel they can be a lot more effective and Philadelphia will be confident they head to New York City with this Series tied.

The Brooklyn Nets have to believe this is a good chance for them to make it 2-0 in the Series and they are going to play Game 2 in a very similar way as they did in Game 1. That is going to be a lot of pick and roll plays as well as looking to move the ball to open positions around the three point line and make sure they sustain their shooting from that range.

That strong trend I mentioned when teams are coming off an upset loss and playing at home in their next game worries me. It is understandable that an underdog perhaps loses some intensity after winning a game on the road while the home favourite focuses to avoid back to back home defeats in the PlayOffs, but Brooklyn are 13-3 against the spread in their last sixteen playing a team with a winning record at home.

The Nets also improved to 5-2 against the spread in their last seven on the road at Philadelphia and I will back them with the points for a second time in this First Round Series.


Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State Warriors Pick: This is one of the First Round Series that looked very one-sided at the start of the PlayOffs and nothing that happened in Game 1 will have changed the views of the layers and the fans. The Golden State Warriors are going into Game 2 as a huge favourite again as they look to work their way through to the Western Conference Semi Finals with the minimum of fuss.

In Game 1 the Warriors put together the big runs which has become a feature of their PlayOff Basketball over the last four years and they blew past the Los Angeles Clippers. However they came close to blowing the cover of the big handicap as they managed minutes in the Fourth Quarter and that could be the case in Game 2.

In reality there really isn't a real case to be made for the Clippers who are using a youthful roster and hoping the bench can make the big plays to keep this one competitive. The Sacramento Kings and Los Angeles Lakers will be kicking themselves that they were not able to finish above the Clippers and I really don't know if this Series is going to need more than four games to be decided.

That is not the question in this Game 2 though.

The real question is whether the Clippers or Warriors will cover and I am leaning towards the visitor with the points despite their three straight blow outs to Golden State. As much as it can be hard to look past Golden State in a Series like this one, I do think they played close to a perfect Game 1 and being even slightly off with their three point shooting may make this game a little closer.

Los Angeles are set as a double digit underdog again and those teams have gone 26-14-1 against the spread in the First Round of the PlayOffs when they are coming off a loss as a double digit underdog. The Warriors are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten when coming off a win by 10 points or more and the road team is 8-3 against the spread in the last eleven in this series.


Tuesday 16th April
Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors Game 2 Pick: Not for the first time this season the Orlando Magic have not only given the Toronto Raptors all they can handle, but they have beaten them as a big underdog on the road. The Magic have stolen home court advantage from Toronto and are looking to back that up with another win to move 2-0 ahead in this First Round Series before it heads to Florida for two games later this week.

It was yet more opening game drama for the Toronto Raptors in the PlayOffs who are now 2-14 in Game 1's played in their history. The fans won't have been too happy, but Toronto have managed to bounce back and fight fire with fire in previous PlayOff Series so there will be a real belief in the locker room they can at least square up the Series before the move to Florida.

The Raptors know they are going to need more out of Kyle Lowry who did not score a bucket from the field in Game 1, although the impact he made on the game was not ignored by Head Coach Nick Nurse. Fans don't look at those things as much as Coaches so Lowry needs to respond and offer some support to Kahwi Leonard who did have a strong PlayOff opening and is not interested in the history of the franchise as an excuse for the Game 1 setback.

I expect Toronto to make some adjustments, but the same can be said for Orlando who will feel very good about winning a game in which both Nikola Vucevic and former Raptor Terrence Ross struggled from the field. Both are bigger influences than what they produced in Game 1 and Vucevic is a few days further from the illness that had made his participation in doubt.

Toronto will continue loading up with the three point shot that was not falling as well as they would have liked in Game 1 and they have to respect Orlando considering they would have had the third best record in the NBA in the regular season from February. However I am expecting a reaction from the Raptors who have gone 3-1 against the spread in their last four Game 2's played after a Game 1 loss and when not facing LeBron James.

The Raptors beat Orlando by double digits in early April here and the Number 2 Seed has gone 21-13-2 against the spread when the public are favouring their Number 7 Seed opponent in the PlayOffs. I ignored this trend with the 76ers on Monday, but teams off an upset loss as a top three Seed have gone 21-7-1 against the spread in their next game if their opponent covered the spread by 11 points or more in the previous game.

Orlando have some very strong trends behind them thanks to a really strong run to end the regular season, but I am looking for a reaction from the Raptors and I think they can win this one going away.


San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Pick: The Denver Nuggets are one of a number of teams who have lost Home Court advantage in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs, but this is a team who have shown they won't let one or two losses get them down. They return home for Game 2 and will be looking to remind the San Antonio Spurs why they finished with the Number 2 Seed and the Nuggets should be backed by a raucous home crowd.

It was a wire to wire win for the San Antonio Spurs, but they had to ride out a storm at the end of the game which could have very easily gone the other way. They are expecting a real reaction from the Denver Nuggets and San Antonio are going to be challenged for back to back road wins considering how erratically they played on the road all season.

For now the players know they have a chance to really put their stamp on this First Round Series by moving two games ahead and knowing three of the remaining five games would be played on their home court where the Spurs have been very strong. That should keep them relaxed and focused with all of the pressure on the home team and the veterans of San Antonio with their deep PlayOff experience should be able to produce another big game.

Jamal Murray had a tough debut in the PlayOffs, but the Nuggets are very much behind their young star and I think he will have a bounce back performance in Game 2. You have to believe the entire Nuggets team will shoot much more efficiently from the field, especially from the three point distance, and a strong home record against the San Antonio Spurs before Game 1 will not have been erased from the memories.

I do think San Antonio have scope for improvement too, but I am going with the same selection I had in Game 1 and that is backing the Denver Nuggets to win and cover the spread.

Like the Toronto Raptors, the Denver Nuggets are being opposed by the public and the Number 2 Seed is 21-13-2 against the spread against the Number 7 Seed in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs. Also like the Raptors, Denver are off an upset loss and are home for the next game where teams have improved to 30-16-1 against the spread when they are one of the top three Seeds off that upset.

The Spurs are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven off a straight up win and I am going to lay the points in this one.


Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers Game 2 Pick: A blistering start to Game 1 saw the Portland Trail Blazers build a big lead by the end of the First Quarter. They were able to hang on for their first PlayOff win in eleven attempts and the memories of being swept out of 2018 PlayOffs in the First Round by the New Orleans Pelicans should be behind them.

The start to Game 1 saw Portland drain three pointer after three pointer, but the fightback made by the Thunder continues to demonstrate why the team who swept the regular season series between the two teams is such a hard matchup for the Trail Blazers. Huge efforts from Damian Lillard and especially Enes Kanter helped Portland come away with the win, but getting a repeat from both is going to be critical.

I can't imagine Oklahoma City are going to give Lillard the same type of room they did in Game 1 when a huge three pointer with under three minutes to play in a one point game proved the big play to win the game for the home team. Russell Westbrook almost dared Lillard to launch from way outside the three point arc, but the ball going down should mean one of the adjustments is to get closer to the star Point Guard.

Oklahoma City also have to hope Paul George can get a little healthier, although it is a long shot when you think of where he was in the days leading up to the PlayOffs. It is arguable that George is a bigger factor than Westbrook for the Thunder if they are going to upset the higher Seed and Game 2 will tell us plenty about what kind of energy he is going to have in the tank.

Paul George himself has announced he is ready to go, but the real test will come during the game and the Thunder will need to him so they can turn the tables on the three point shooting from Game 1. Where Portland nailed plenty, Oklahoma City struggled and in a five point game it doesn't take a genius to suggest a slight adjustment there will swing the game the other way.

The Trail Blazers are not sitting down and admiring their own performance in Game 1 and will be looking to make some adjustments too, but I am still of the belief that the Thunder are the better team. That is especially the case if George is good to go, and they can win their first PlayOff road game in three years.

The layers feel this is going to be the closest of the three NBA PlayOff games scheduled for Tuesday and I feel the same. However I will take the points with the road team who I feel have more scope for improvement from Game 1 to Game 2.


Wednesday 17th April
Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics Game 2 Pick: Game 1 of this NBA PlayOffs First Round Series was pretty much one of the more ugly ones we have seen in the post-season so far. Neither the Boston Celtics or the Indiana Pacers shot the ball anywhere near the level they can produce, but the home team won't be overly concerned after locking down Defensively in the second half and moving into a 1-0 lead.

The Boston Celtics will still be looking to make some adjustments to get their shooters a little more open in this one as they look to put a fourth consecutive win over the Pacers in the books for April 2019. Two of those wins in the regular season ensured a Home Court First Round Series between these two teams, but Game 1 was the first time both struggled from the field as much as they did.

More adjustments obviously have to be made by the Indiana Pacers who will believe they can be more efficient from the field than they were in Game 1. The absence of Victor Oladipo does mean Indiana don't have the consistent scorer you would like to turn to in the PlayOffs, but they are not using that as an excuse and have to hope Darren Collison is a little healthier having struggled in Game 1.

There will also be the belief that the Celtics can't produce the same type of Defensive effort as they did in Game 1 especially with Marcus Smart out of the line up.

The layers have made a significant adjustment of their own as they have reduced the total point line by 6.5 points from Game 1 to Game 2. I think that may be too much of an adjustment based on a single game sample and three of their four games in the regular season saw the 'over' come into play.

Indiana have bounced back from sub-par Offensive efforts this season with the three times they have been held to under 80 points being followed by 100 plus points being scored. The 'over' is also 14-3 in the last seventeen when Indiana have scored less than 75 points and I think both teams will be a lot better Offensively in Game 2 which can see this total line surpassed.


Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 2 Pick: We have seen a couple of huge blow outs in the NBA PlayOffs over the first few days of the post-season, but the biggest was the one handed out by the Milwaukee Bucks to the Detroit Pistons. For the third time this season Milwaukee have beaten Detroit by 20 plus points at home and they are being asked to cover the biggest spread of the Game 2's being played in the First Round Series.

The absence of Blake Griffin is a huge one for the Pistons, although I am not sure he is going to be missing the entire Series as some reported prior to the start of the PlayOffs. Griffin himself is pushing for a return in Game 2, but I think he is going to be held out for a few more days at the least and that means there is a pressure on the rest of the Detroit roster to step up their game.

Game 1 was a terrible performance all around from the Pistons and it is hard to see much changing for them considering how the regular season panned out between these teams. However I am not sure the Milwaukee Bucks are going to be as intense as they were and that may give Detroit an opportunity to cover with the huge amount of points being given to them.

The Pistons are going to have to make some serious adjustments to be more competitive as the Milwaukee Bucks seemed to be able to do whatever they wanted to from the field. A heavy dose of three pointers being hit made it impossible for Detroit to keep up with the Bucks who have been very strong covering the spread when set as a huge favourite of 14 points or higher.

In reality it is very difficult seeing anything but another Milwaukee win. This is a team with a lot of reasons to continue to make a statement after finishing with the best regular season record and Milwaukee work hard on the court which gives them every chance of covering a spread that is even as big as this one.

Winning is one thing, but I also think the Pistons should now be settled into the PlayOffs having battled hard to finish with the Number 8 Seed after needing to win their final two regular season games. That could have been another factor in the manner of their defeat in Game 1 and I would expect Detroit to be a lot better all around even if they are unlikely to be good enough to extend this Series.

Teams that have lost as double digit underdogs and set as a double digit underdog again have gone 27-14-1 against the spread in the NBA PlayOffs First Round. That situation improved when the Los Angeles Clippers upset the Golden State Warriors earlier this week in Game 2 too, and I will look for Detroit to make this a much more competitive game with the points behind them.


Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets Game 2 Pick: A blowout defeat in Game 1 will have hurt the Utah Jazz and you have to think they are going to need to be a lot more competitive in Game 2 to avoid having memories of the way they were beaten by the Houston Rockets in the PlayOffs twelve months ago. There are some real adjustments Utah need to make on both sides of the court if they are going to make this Game 2 a lot closer than the last one was, but they have the confidence to do that.

Failing to dominate the boards and a 39% shooting percentage from the field put Utah in a very difficult position, but the players are reminding everyone that they are only 1-0 down in the Series regardless of the margin of defeat. Last year the Jazz lost Game 1 in Houston and came back and beat them in Game 2 on their way to a five game defeat in the Western Conference Semi Finals so they have shown they can pick themselves up from setbacks.

That Series has also been on the minds of the Houston players who remember what happened after a Game 1 win last season. James Harden will be looking to find a little more room and the role players are going to have to keep their performances at a high level to help the Rockets move into a commanding 2-0 lead in the Series.

The Rockets will be looking to lock down Defensively against the Utah Jazz again and their improvement on that side of the court makes Houston a real threat to reach the NBA Finals. As much as they have been stronger on the Defensive side of the court, I do think Utah can expect to get more out of their starters who underachieved in Game 1 and I think that is going to factor in this Game 2 and produce the first 'over' between these teams in Houston.

In their Western Conference Semi Final Series last season Game 2 did end up sailing 'over' the line after an 'under' in Game 1 and I think that could be the outcome again.

Utah's ability to bounce back from big defeats has helped the 'over' which has gone 8-3 in their last eleven games following a double digit loss. I think Houston will continue to get their points, but I am also expecting a lot more from the Jazz and I will look for these teams to combine for more than the total points line.


Wednesday 18th April
The First Round Series are all shifting from the venue for the first two games as the top Seeds get set for two games on the road.

Half of those Series have seen the top Seeds win both home games while the other half are at 1-1. Not many are going to be tipping up too many of the lower Seeds to get through to the Conference Semi Finals from here, but I think or two have real life in them. All of those lower Seeds will be looking to win two games at home in the next few days over the Easter Weekend to keep their dreams alive, but there is going to be a lot of work to do to manage that.

I would expect at least one, and possibly two, of the First Round Series to be concluded without the need for a Game 5 but games are played on the court and I will be watching with some interest in what has been a mixed PlayOffs for the First Round selections made.

The favourites have been dominating since the first day of the PlayOffs and that is something that the layers will begin to make adjustments for. Hopefully I will be able to spot the value plays through to Easter Monday and start putting a consistent positive run together.


Philadelphia 76ers @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: The most chippy of the First Round NBA PlayOff Series has to be the one between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Brooklyn Nets and I think there is going to be a raucous atmosphere at the Barclays Center on Thursday evening.

One of the controversial moments in Game 2 had to be the Joel Embiid elbow on Jarrett Allen which saw Embiid avoid an ejection from the game. Some have criticised the referees for missing the call, while the Nets have been upset by the cameras catching Embiid and Ben Simmons laughing about the incident in the post-game conference.

There have been a few comments from the Nets about the whole issue, but they are also concentrating on returning home for two games having stolen Home Court advantage in Game 1. The Nets even led at half time in Game 2 before Simmons turned on the style and the 76ers had a huge third quarter which changed the game in their favour.

Both regular games between these teams at the Barclays Center were very close affairs and I have every reason to believe this one is going to be the same. The Nets will make the adjustments to get themselves a little more open from the three point line and I do think they match up well with the 76ers despite the way they were blown away in the second half of Game 2.

I have backed the Nets in both games as the underdog and I think they can be backed as the home underdog in Game 3 too. The 76ers still don't have a fully healthy Joel Embiid which does weaken the Number 3 Seed, while they are going to need Ben Simmons to perform at a very high level throughout the Series and I am not sure he can match the Game 2 performance.

Brooklyn have shown they can bounce back from defeats like the one they suffered in Game 2 and they have gone 9-3 against the spread in their last twelve games off a double digit loss. The Nets have also enjoyed a 16-5 record against the spread in their last twenty-one games when playing with two days rest between games having played Game 2 on Monday.

A lot of people are likely going to assume that the Philadelphia 76ers are completely back on track, but I think they are going to need another big performance from inconsistent Simmons to win Game 3. The close games with Brooklyn show these teams match up well and the 76ers are 2-11 against the spread when favoured by less than 4 points this season.

The 76ers are also 1-5 against the spread in their last six games following a win and they are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven on the road. With the Nets returning home in what should be a fantastic atmosphere, I am suggesting taking the points with Brooklyn in this one as I have in the first two games of this Series.


Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs Game 3 Pick: It looked like the Denver Nuggets were going to be heading to Texas in a big hole as they trailed the San Antonio Spurs in the fourth quarter of Game 2. Jamal Murray came alive for the Number 2 Seed in that quarter after struggling throughout the first seven quarters of the Series and he was a huge influence in the Nuggets rallying and winning and covering.

The Number 2 Seed in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs have had considerable success historically, but I am not sure the Nuggets are as a strong a 2 Seed as the others that have had this spot previously. There are some really good trends that are favouring the Denver Nuggets, but the San Antonio Spurs have been a different prospect at home all season and the veterans will know they had the better of the Denver Nuggets through the first two games of this Series and should be 2-0 ahead.

Being at 1-1 is a blow, but DeMar DeRozan was correct in saying that the Spurs are still in a very strong position and holding onto Home Court through the remainder of the First Round Series will move them onto the Western Conference Semi Finals.

San Antonio have won the battle on the boards in each of the first two games and it was only some poor Defensive play and losing their way from the field that cost them Game 2. I still think more adjustments need to be made by the Denver Nuggets if they are going to find the consistency they want to beat a team who have tended to dominate the head to head between the teams.

The Spurs won both regular season games between these teams at home and it was only another poor fourth quarter that gave the Denver the chance of winning the last of those. Gregg Popovich will be urging his players to perform for the full 48 minutes and make sure San Antonio maintain their advantage in the Series and I do think they are the superior team.

Denver have failed to cover in five of their last seven visits to San Antonio and the Spurs are 16-7 against the spread when favoured by less than 5 points this season. The favourite has improved to 11-5 against the spread in this Series and the Nuggets are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games against a team with a winning record at home.


Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers Game 3 Pick: The DeMarcus Cousins injury in the first half of Game 2 has ruled him out of the entire post-season for the Golden State Warriors, but that was not the reason the defending Champions blew Game 2 of this First Round Series. The Los Angeles Clippers completed the biggest comeback in PlayOff history by recovering from a 31 point deficit in the second half to not only cover as a double digit underdog, but actually square up this First Round Series.

Home Court has been stolen by the Clippers, but they are going to need plenty more magic if they are going to upset the Warriors. Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell were huge off the bench as the Clippers rallied, but they are going to need to do plenty more of the same if Golden State are to be beaten.

There is no doubting how irritated Golden State were in losing the game in the manner they did and I expect them to come out focused and ready to show why they are the team to beat in most people's eyes. The Warriors can't have such a sloppy half again as they did in Game 2 and I think they showed in the first two games they have a lot of advantages over the Clippers who will be relying on the bench to produce again.

The injury to Cousins is a blow for the Warriors, but they were successful without him last season and I think Golden State are going to produce a big performance in this Game 3. Prior to the defeat in Game 2, the Warriors had beaten the Los Angeles Clippers by 18, 27 and 17 points in three consecutive games and I think they can keep control of the boards and also double down their focus to make sure they can steal back Home Court advantage.

Golden State are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games in Los Angeles against the Clippers. They are also 5-1 against the spread in their last six games following a loss. I expect them to be well rested and focused to redeem themselves after the way Game 2 ended and the Clippers did not end the season in very good form when playing the better teams in the NBA.

I am expecting a big reaction from the defending Champions.


Friday 19th April
Toronto Raptors @ Orlando Magic Game 3 Pick: After losing yet another Game 1 in a PlayOff Series, the Toronto Raptors have bounced back with a dominant win in Game 2 to head to Florida at 1-1 with the Orlando Magic. That has been the case in recent PlayOff Series for the Raptors, but they will want to break the trend of losing Game 3 having done that in their last four PlayOff Series including in the First Round in each of the last two seasons.

The blowout in Game 2 might suggest this is going to be the time when Toronto take full control of the Series, but the Orlando Magic are one of the hottest teams coming into the PlayOffs. There has to be a boost from the first PlayOff game at home since 2012 and the Magic have won their last nine games at home in the regular season.

There is going to be a confidence they can perform at home and Orlando have covered in both games played against the Raptors here in the regular season. They won one of those games outright so the Magic are going to be encouraged as they look to take a grip on this First Round Series.

Nikola Vucevic is going to be needed if the Magic are going to give the Raptors all they can handle in this Series and he has yet to really produce in the first two games played north of the border. He has made a point of studying the tapes and figuring out how he can make a bigger impact in Game 3 and that is going to be a key adjustment in this one.

I am expecting a response from the Magic who are 5-2-1 against the spread in the last eight in their head to heads with Toronto. One concern has to be the 14-1 run against the spread that favourites are on in the NBA PlayOffs and Toronto are a team who have some very strong trends behind them, but this feels like a few too many points to be handing a team who have been in fine form at home.

Orlando are 10-7-1 against the spread as a home underdog this season and the Magic are 12-7 against the spread when hosting a team with a winning record. The Magic have played well enough to think they can keep this one competitive and I will look for this underdog to snap the negative run those teams have been on in the NBA PlayOffs since the opening Saturday of the post-season.

My remaining two Picks from Good Friday can be seen in the MY PICKS section below.


Saturday 20th April
It is Easter Weekend so there needs to be some time spent with family as well as making sure I am putting up a few of my NBA Picks as well as from the Boxing which is taking place. It means on Saturday I will have two fuller posts about the selections being made from the Game 3's and Game 4's being played and two that I will add to the 'MY PICKS' section below.

Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs Game 4 Pick: The San Antonio Spurs moved 2-1 up in this First Round Series with a home victory on Thursday and with a little more focus they could easily have been on the brink of making the Western Conference Semi Finals. Only a blown fourth quarter in Game 2 is preventing the Spurs having the chance to sweep this Series, but they look the best placed of the lower Seeds that are going to upset their opponents in the First Round.

Focus is the key for the Spurs and they know this Series can quickly turn on its head if they were to drop Game 4 and then be involved in what is essentially a best of three Series with two of those games being played on the road. There have been times when the Spurs have failed to complete a full 48 minutes and allowed opponents to steal wins they shouldn't have earned and that is a concern for them, but three wins out of three at home against the Denver Nuggets in the 2018/19 season will give them plenty of belief.

More adjustments have to be made by the Denver Nuggets who achieved the Number 2 Seed but had doubters about their abilities throughout the season. They pushed the Golden State Warriors all the way in the regular season for the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference, so you have to respect the Nuggets, but this is a team who are struggling without the experience of much PlayOff Basketball in recent years and they are going to need San Antonio to help them as much as anything they do themselves to get back into this Series.

There are some decent talents on the Denver roster, but they have yet to really put together the kind of chemistry they had in the regular season. The Nuggets have also struggled on the road all season and now face one of the toughest home teams in the NBA and one who made into the PlayOffs very much because of the huge amount of wins they produced in front of their own fans.

Gregg Popovich has plenty of experience to make sure he can keep his players grounded and focused for this game and I think that will help them ignore the noise about being favourites and moving to the hill at 3-1 in the Series. It can be hard to back a team who are being pounded by the public and the zig-zag theory has worked in this PlayOff Series so far, while the Number 2 Seed historically has been in a very strong spot to be backed when facing the Number 7 Seed on the road as also as an underdog.

However I can't ignore how well the Spurs have played as a small favourite as they improved to 17-7 against the spread when favoured by less than 5 points this season. They also improved to 6-2 against the spread in their last eight at home against the Denver Nuggets and the visitors are now 2-6 against the spread in their last eight road games at a team who have a winning record at home.

Sometimes the spread can be too good to be true, and that is a concern when the public money hasn't shifted the number, but the Spurs look the better team. It might be even a little closer than Game 3, but I think the San Antonio Spurs will cover and move to the brink of the Western Conference Semi Finals.


Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons Game 3 Pick: This always felt like a Series that would be dominated by the Milwaukee Bucks and they have put up two strong victories over the Detroit Pistons to move into a commanding position.

Now the First Round Series is headed back to Detroit who have to be hoping a change of scenery will help them find a way to get back into this one. The absence of Blake Griffin has really not helped the chances of earning an upset, although his presence on the bench has actually resulted in a Technical being given against him in both games played in the Series.

That does show there is a real passion from the Pistons to try and challenge the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference. They were much better in Game 2 compared with the complete blowout in Game 1, but once again it was a defeat by 20 plus points and I really don't know if there is a lot that the Pistons can do about things to change them around.

Their biggest asset may be complacency on the part of the Milwaukee Bucks, but that is looking a long shot with this group of players all working hard to write their names down in NBA history. The two games played in Detroit were closer in the regular season, although both were won by the Bucks and one of those came by a double digit margin so all in all it looks a very tall task for the Number 8 Seed to get back into this Series.

A Number 1 Seed in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs playing a Number 8 Seed with a sub 0.500 record have improved to 38-25-2 against the spread. A Number 1 Seed who have won and covered in back to back games are also 24-11 against the spread in the First Round of the PlayOffs and those are two trends favouring the Bucks in this one.

Those teams are also 15-3 against the spread when the Number 1 Seed has covered the last spread by four or more points which is the case for the Bucks and I am leaning heavily towards the road team. Detroit have to be respected with their 11-3 record against the spread in their last fourteen home games, but Milwaukee are riding some incredible trends and the road team can move to the brink of the First Round sweep.

Picks from Philadelphia @ Brooklyn and Houston @ Utah can be seen in the MY PICKS section.


Sunday 21st April
It has not been a great Easter Sunday after the Manchester United result earlier in the day and I am going to add the NBA PlayOff selections for this day in the 'MY PICKS' section below as the majority of the First Round Series complete their Game 4s.


Monday 22nd April
The remaining First Round PlayOff Games are going to be covered in a new thread which I will post on Tuesday, but the last of the Game 4s is played on Easter Monday and those are going to be covered below. A poor Sunday knocked me back a little bit, but I am going to conclude the first half of the First Round with a winning record regardless of what happens on Monday, but I would very much like to have two more winners to add to a solid start to the PlayOffs.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons Game 4 Pick: Blake Griffin was back to give the Detroit Pistons a boost in this First Round PlayOff Series, but it was more of the same as they were beaten for the seventh time this season by the Number 1 Seeded Milwaukee Bucks. Once again it was a big loss for the Pistons who almost backed their way into the PlayOffs and who have struggled to match a Milwaukee team that are set for a huge Eastern Conference Semi Final Series with the Boston Celtics.

The Celtics have already swept through their First Round Series with the Indiana Pacers on Sunday and now will be resting and hoping the Pistons can at least extend this First Round Series by one or even two more games. That does look like being a long shot with Milwaukee dominating in all aspects of the first three games and I am not sure how Detroit can adjust to make this Game 4 any more competitive than the first three games have been.

Like I mentioned in Game 3, Detroit are desperately searching for the adjustments to make this a competitive Series, but they look short in most areas. Even the boost that would have come with seeing Griffin suited up was not enough for Detroit whose strengths are bettered by what the Bucks bring to the table.

The layers have made the biggest adjustment so far by inflating this point spread between Game 3 and Game 4. The Milwaukee Bucks have won by at least 16 points in each of the three games in this First Round Series, while the closest the Pistons have got to the Bucks in their last six games is a 10 point defeat.

Milwaukee have improved to 6-0-1 against the spread in the last seven between these Divisional rivals and they are also 15-7 against the spread as a double digit favourite this season. The favourite in this series between these two teams is now 8-2-1 against the spread in the last eleven games and I do think the Milwaukee Bucks will be looking to get the broomsticks out and make sure they are rested physically and mentally before the big Semi Final Series with the Boston Celtics.

Teams who have lost three in a row in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs are 87-103-1 against the spread historically in this Round of the post-season. Those teams have been a bit more successful at home, but the Detroit Pistons will do well to get this back to Milwaukee and I do think the Bucks can produce one more big game to cover what is a large spread for any road team to be dealing with.

The Detroit Pistons have not covered in any of their last six games facing a team with a winning record, while they are 1-5 against the spread when coming off a double digit loss at home. Milwaukee have dominated Divisional rivals by improving to 16-4-1 against the spread in their last twenty-one against those teams in their Division and I think they can cover the number here.


Houston Texans @ Utah Jazz Game 4 Pick: Last season the Houston Rockets crushed the Utah Jazz in the Western Conference Semi Finals and they are on the brink of doing the same in the NBA PlayOffs First Round this time around. Game 3 was a tighter contest than the first two games in this Series have been, but Utah came up short again and the Houston Rockets will be looking to sweep their way through to what many expect will be a Series with the defending Champions Golden State Warriors.

Being up 3-0 and the chance to get the broomsticks out will motivate the Houston Rockets and all of the money seems to be going on the Rockets. The public are convinced the superior team is going to do enough to not only win this game, but also come through as a favourite as the layers have switched the favourite from Game 3 to Game 4.

In reality the Utah Jazz could not have played much better than they did in Game 3 and they still came up short with the Houston Rockets edging them out in a 3 point road win. My concern for the Jazz is the players will have dropped their heads completely and the trend I mentioned in the Milwaukee-Detroit game of teams on a three game losing run in the First Round of the PlayOffs could come to the fore in favour of the road Rockets again.

However I did mention that teams playing at home have shown a little more fight and that is where the Utah Jazz will be for Game 4. They are also coming off a home loss as the favourite and will be hosting Game 4 which has been a good spot for teams off upset losses in the past. Those teams are 57-35-4 against the spread in the First Round of the PlayOffs and I think the Utah Jazz can do their best to try and force a Game 5 at the least.

Most of the trends in the head to head are favouring Houston, but Utah will be motivated to give their fans something to smile about. They are 19-7-1 against the spread in their last twenty-seven following a loss and I will look to take the points here with the home team.

MY PICKS: 13/04 Brooklyn Nets + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

13/04 Orlando Magic + 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

13/04 Golden State Warriors - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

13/04 Denver Nuggets - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
14/04 Boston Celtics - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
14/04 Oklahoma City Thunder + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
14/04 Milwaukee Bucks - 13 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
14/04 Utah Jazz + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
15/04 Brooklyn Nets + 8 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
15/04 Los Angeles Clippers + 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
16/04 Toronto Raptors - 10 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
16/04 Denver Nuggets - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
16/04 Oklahoma City Thunder + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
17/04 Boston Celtics-Indiana Pacers Over 204.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
17/04 Detroit Pistons + 15 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
17/04 Houston Rockets-Utah Jazz Over 214 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
18/04 Brooklyn Nets + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
18/04 San Antonio Spurs - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
18/04 Golden State Warriors - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
19/04 Orlando Magic + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
19/04 Boston Celtics + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
19/04 Oklahoma City Thunder - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
20/04 San Antonio Spurs - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
20/04 Milwaukee Bucks - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
20/04 Philadelphia 76ers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
20/04 Houston Rockets + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
21/04 Boston Celtics - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
21/04 Golden State Warriors - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
21/04 Orlando Magic + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
21/04 Oklahoma City Thunder - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
22/04 Milwaukee Bucks - 12 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
22/04 Utah Jazz + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

NBA First Round Update: 20-12, + 6.29 Units (32 Units Staked, + 19.66% Yield)