Tennis Picks 2022 (April 22nd)

The weather in Barcelona meant only a couple of matches were able to be completed and it does mean a very busy day is set to be played at the tournament on Friday.

That meant some of the Tennis Picks will have to wait to be completed after a tough Thursday at the Belgrade Open.

There are a couple of big tournaments being played this week, but the main Tennis story of the week has to be the decision made by Wimbledon to ban players from Russia and Belarus from competing.

It means the event will be missing some of the biggest names on the Tour- Aryna Sabalenka and Daniil Medvedev may have felt like genuine contenders to win the title in SW19- and I think there will be plenty around the tournament are offering themselves congratulations from separating from the pack.

Let's make that clear, the rest of the Tour is unaffected and it is Wimbledon and the UK tournaments which have felt they needed to make this statement.

Personally I have always felt that Tennis in the United Kingdom has been a sport which has largely been one catered for the Middle to Upper class, which means catered to a certain 'look' of a person.

I am not someone who has that look in all honesty.

The whole idea of a 'Royal Box' makes that point for the masses- Wimbledon is stuck in the past, whether that is the dress code or whether that is the arrogance of acting like they are the most important tournament in the world.

I feel this decision to ban players is made from an arrogant, 'we are better than you', angle as they go against the rest of the Grand Slam events and the two Tours.

It is a remarkable decision as far as I am concerned and sets a dangerous precedent- I am assuming Wimbledon are now going to be the moral guardians of the tennis world and so I would like to know what they are going to do about any Chinese players considering the treatment of the Uyghurs over there?

I am assuming a ban or is it that a certain shade of human being has to be affected before a stand is made?

Do you see how quickly politics and sport becomes a murky line to tread?

I am not sure how you can ban players for actions of their government and what exactly Wimbledon expects individuals to do? I've heard the nonsense from some suggesting the Russian and Belarusian players have to made big statements saying how much they oppose the war being raged, but I honestly don't understand this mindset.

Again, it feels murky and raises so many other questions and becomes a moment where Wimbledon are going to leave themselves open to be judged when they fail to act on other events happening all over the world.

This just feels like a really poor decision made by All England Club and I do think the LTA have made a big mistake too. Where they may have thought they would be applauded for taking the lead, I think they have just shown themselves to be hypocrites and the long feeling that the sport in the UK is catered for caucasians with money is hard to shift here.

In saying all that I think there has been enough pushback to believe there will be a reversal from Wimbledon and the LTA before the grass court season comes around. Criticism has been coming from several places and I think there will definitely be a re-evaluation of the decision.

It just feels wrong to ban individuals who are not representing their nations- so I understand why UEFA and FIFA have made their decisions, while I think the Davis Cup and Billie Jean King Cup organisers had to do the same. But Tennis is not a team sport and these athletes largely represent themselves, while I think these tournaments have long wanted to separate politics from their sports (else they wouldn't be playing big tournaments in China would they?).

Things will certainly become clearer next week when there are supposedly further talks set to take place, but I couldn't be more against the Wimbledon decision right now.

On Friday the majority of my Tennis Picks are from the matches that were supposed to be played on Thursday, but the weather decimated the schedule.

There are a number of Quarter Final matches being played at the three other tournaments that have been scheduled for this week, but my sole selection comes from Belgrade.

MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update; 6-10, - 9.10 Units (32 Units Staked, - 28.43% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (April 19th)

The sole Tennis Pick on Monday returned an early morning winner and I can't ask for much more than that.

There are some big tournaments being played this week on both the ATP and WTA Tours, but the focus for the Tennis Picks on Tuesday are the two ATP events in Barcelona and Belgrade. I have three selections from Barcelona and two from Belgrade which can be seen below.

While I don't have any Picks from the WTA Stuttgart tournament, I will be hoping to tune in at some point when Bianca Andreescu makes her return to the Tour. Injuries have stalled a promising career, but I am hoping that the Canadian is over those and can push back towards the top of the World Rankings where she belongs.

After a long layoff, Bianca Andreescu makes her season debut on Tuesday and I can only wish her the best of luck.

Roberto Carballas Baena - 1.5 games v Lloyd Harris: He may be Ranked over fifty places behind his opponent, but you can understand why Roberto Carballas Baena has been set as the favourite in this First Round match against Lloyd Harris. While the Spaniard has long been at his most comfortable on the natural surface of the clay courts, Lloyd Harris has struggled to have an impact on the red dirt and the next six weeks is a difficult time for the big serving South African.

You cannot completely disregard the Roberto Carballas Baena World Ranking, but I do think he is the right favourite in this First Round match in Barcelona.

He reached the Semi Final of a Challenger event on the clay in Madrid last week and Roberto Carballas Baena has won matches at the main ATP level too. The Spaniard has suffered a couple of heavy losses to the likes of Casper Ruud and Lorenzo Sonego, but those two players are pretty comfortable on the clay courts too and the overall numbers produced by Roberto Carballas Baena are decent enough.

They are certainly going to be good enough to give him a big chance to beat Lloyd Harris who has long struggled on the slower surface as he has not been given as many free points as he would expect to receive on the hard and grass courts. Lloyd Harris was pretty handily beaten in Monte Carlo in the sole match played there and even in 2021 he only held serve in 71% of service games played, which leaves him vulnerable on this surface against a clay court specialist.

It also has to be noted that Lloyd Harris has not been as comfortable as he would have liked when it comes to returning on the clay courts- while he will get into rallies, the slower surface tests the consistency of the groundstrokes and that is where Roberto Carballas Baena looks to have a real advantage over Lloyd Harris in this First Round match.

Roberto Carballas Baena has an attackable serve, but Lloyd Harris has not really shown the consistency to be able to exploit that. Instead, it feels like the Carballas Baena return could make the difference on the day and I will look for the Spaniard to earn a good win in this First Round match in Barcelona.

Marton Fucsovics - 4.5 games v Jordan Thompson: Playing on the clay courts in Houston is one thing, but the European clay courts are a big test for players like Jordan Thompson who want to spend the majority of their time on faster surfaces. This is a surface in which patience and consistency can be rewarded, while movement is very different for players compared with the hard courts and grass courts they will be playing on for much of the season.

The Australian was beaten in his first match in Houston and in recent years he has not had a lot of experience of playing on the red dirt. Last season he finished with a 2-4 record on the clay courts, although Jordan Thompson did win a match here in Barcelona and will be hoping that experience can be replicated.

A big problem for Jordan Thompson over the last couple of years on the clay courts has been the serve and he has just struggled to get out of those tough spots that a big serve can manage to do when playing on the hard courts. It is perhaps no surprise it has led to Jordan Thompson holding just 68% of service games played on the clay over the last twelve months compared with his 77% mark on the hard courts.

The pressure has then been ramped up on the return and it has proved to be a tough spot for Jordan Thompson to deal with as he has broken in just 18% of return games on a surface on which the return should be easier to deal with.

Marton Fucsovics will be hoping to take advantage after a relatively disappointing Monte Carlo Masters showing- he has dropped out of the top 50 in the World Rankings and may have seen his best tennis pass him by, but he remains a solid, if unspectacular clay courter.

Over the last twelve months, Marton Fucsovics has found his own serve being much more vulnerable on the clay courts, but he does hold 70% of service games played. That number is not much better than Jordan Thompson's mark, but a difference for the Hungarian is that he has broken in 32% of return games and I do think he will be the superior player whenever we get into rallies.

I expect that to make the difference on the day and the return of serve should favour Marton Fucsovics to move into a position to cover what is a big handicap mark. As long as he serves even semi competently, I expect Marton Fucsovics to record a solid win in Barcelona on his way to the Second Round of this tournament.

Pablo Andujar - 2.5 games v Ugo Humbert: The main problem some of the clay court specialists have is that they have serves that can be vulnerable and it is something that the top players on the Tour will exploit.

Take Pablo Andujar as an example- he has a winning record on the clay courts over the last twelve months, but his numbers are hurt by the fact he only holds 68% of service games played. The wins have largely come about thanks to the 33% of games in which he has broken serve, but it makes players like Andujar hard to trust when it comes to covering any spread.

However, he is the favourite against Ugo Humbert in the First Round in Barcelona and deservedly so when you think of the season long struggle the Frenchman has had on the Tour. The confidence is clearly dented as shown by his manner of defeat to Pedro Martinez in the Monte Carlo Masters, but Ugo Humbert had more successes breaking the serve than looking after his own and that makes him potentially awkward for Pablo Andujar to deal with.

The difference between the players does look to be the return.

Over the last twelve months Ugo Humbert has struggled for wins on all surfaces, but especially on the clay courts where he too has only managed to hold serve in 68% of service games played on the surface. Unlike Pablo Andujar, Ugo Humbert has not been able to break serve as consistently with a 20% mark there and I think the favourite is going to earn a measure of revenge for losing to the Frenchman at the Olympic Games last year.

That was a match played on the hard courts and I do think the shift onto the clay courts favours Pablo Andujar.

He hasn't played for a couple of weeks, but playing on the clay will feel natural for Pablo Andujar and I think he will find a way to force the breaks against a player lacking confidence. Ugo Humbert will have some break chances of his own, but Andujar should have the majority of break points on the day and I think he will work towards a good looking win.

MY PICKS: Roberto Carballas Baena - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Marton Fucsovics - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Pablo Andujar - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Joao Sousa + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

David Goffin - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-0, + 1.80 Units (2 Units Stake, + 90% Yield)

Season 2022: - 16.46 Units (494 Units Staked, - 3.33% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (April 23rd)

Another day and some more poor moments within matches have just swung things against my Tennis Picks which continues to frustrate more than disappoint.

Even Pablo Carreno Busta did his best to lose a match he was dominating, or at least fail to cover the handicap, but thankfully that was not the case.

Regardless I am really disappointed with my results in the first two months of the season and it is a far cry from the profitable seasons I have enjoyed in recent years. Some adjustments have to be made by me, but I also have to believe that the breaks are going to eventually start going my way especially if players keep dominating in all statistical areas bar the scoreboard.

Ultimately it is the scoreboard that is most significant and, no matter how things shake up, the results have not been good enough as far as I am concerned. I wrote in the last post that I would take the rest of the month off if the Thursday results were not good enough and that is where I stand after another 2-3 where players continue to miss their own break point chances but can't prevent opponent's from taking the few opportunities that come their way.

It was during the Stefanos Tsitsipas win over Alex De Minaur that this decision was made- he has been in such hot form, but to only win three return points in the first five games and then wait until he couldn't cover before going into overdrive and dominating the match was the final straw for me.

The second you start believing the negative feelings around any selection then it is best to just stick a pin in things for now. I will get back to it when the Madrid Masters comes around in early May and that will be the big run towards the French Open during which time I will be demanding nothing but good results and no excuses from myself.

Before then I will have my second NFL Mock Draft with the real Draft taking place next Thursday, while I will also have the Weekend Fantasy thoughts out for the Premier League with the deadline set for Friday afternoon.

And before you know it we will be into the third Masters event of the season.

Tennis Picks 2021 (April 19th)

The four new tournaments that are set to be played on the clay courts this week have some very big names attached to them and I do think we will see better tennis as the players get used to playing on this surface.

I will have a fuller post for the Tuesday Tennis Picks, but time has not really been on my side on Sunday.

For now you can see my selections to open the week below.

MY PICKS: Pablo Andujar - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Nikola Milojevic - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Filip Krajinovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)