Tennis Picks 2021 (April 23rd)

Another day and some more poor moments within matches have just swung things against my Tennis Picks which continues to frustrate more than disappoint.

Even Pablo Carreno Busta did his best to lose a match he was dominating, or at least fail to cover the handicap, but thankfully that was not the case.

Regardless I am really disappointed with my results in the first two months of the season and it is a far cry from the profitable seasons I have enjoyed in recent years. Some adjustments have to be made by me, but I also have to believe that the breaks are going to eventually start going my way especially if players keep dominating in all statistical areas bar the scoreboard.

Ultimately it is the scoreboard that is most significant and, no matter how things shake up, the results have not been good enough as far as I am concerned. I wrote in the last post that I would take the rest of the month off if the Thursday results were not good enough and that is where I stand after another 2-3 where players continue to miss their own break point chances but can't prevent opponent's from taking the few opportunities that come their way.

It was during the Stefanos Tsitsipas win over Alex De Minaur that this decision was made- he has been in such hot form, but to only win three return points in the first five games and then wait until he couldn't cover before going into overdrive and dominating the match was the final straw for me.

The second you start believing the negative feelings around any selection then it is best to just stick a pin in things for now. I will get back to it when the Madrid Masters comes around in early May and that will be the big run towards the French Open during which time I will be demanding nothing but good results and no excuses from myself.

Before then I will have my second NFL Mock Draft with the real Draft taking place next Thursday, while I will also have the Weekend Fantasy thoughts out for the Premier League with the deadline set for Friday afternoon.

And before you know it we will be into the third Masters event of the season.

Tennis Picks 2015 (July 24th)

What... A... Week(!)

I am completely done with this week and it is one that I don't want to go through again where it felt like I had literally picked matches that had players going out of their way to irritate me. I am not one of these people that think tennis players are machines so I obviously won't be venting my disgust to any of the players personally because I am not an idiot and have learned to take the rough with the smooth.

Unfortunately it has been incredibly rough this week as I have had virtually no fortune at all which has been highlighted by some of the ways the picks have fallen through and I think it is better to call it a day for the week.

Looking back at some of the results this week, I really wish I had Biff's Sports Almanac from Back to the Future because that is the only way I would believe what I was seeing. Players constantly getting into a position to win matches and somehow throwing them away and all the statistics pointing to the picks being correct, but simply not falling my way.


Making picks while completely 'pissed off', pardon my French, is simply not smart and I haven't lost faith that matches I picked were wrong considering how strong the season had been.

Don't be foolish in thinking that I don't appreciate there have been some bad picks too... The picks on Lukas Rosol and Federico Delbonis had alarm bells attached prior to being made and I should have paid more attention those.

But let me break down some of the other results and I think it will be clear that there has been almost nothing going my way.


It all began on Monday as the first pick of the week fell through the crack- I had backed Fernando Verdasco who somehow lost the first set despite having at least one break point in all but one Nicolas Almagro service game. He then won the second set easily enough and was serving to get into a final set tie-break only to then hand Almagro a break and winning the match.

Almagro only had break points in four games but broke three times, while Verdasco had break points in double the games and broke just three times himself. If that match went into a tie-breaker, Verdasco would have covered and thus set the tone for the rest of the week.

Later that day Matthew Ebden won the first set in his match 61, but then fell apart to lose and fail to cover a small number of games himself.


Moving on to Wednesday, Andrey Rublev became the third player I had picked this week that would have brought in a winner if he had won a final set in his match, but was beaten.

That had come after Thomaz Bellucci won more than half of the points on his opponent's serve but failed to covert a 0-40 situation and was broken in both the games he gave up break points in the match to miss the cover by a single game. On another day he wins 62, 62 but another day won't work for me this week.


So Thursday couldn't have that kind of misfortune could it? Well Julia Goerges became the latest player to lose a final set after dominating her match in the first two sets and failing to get the job done when she should have.

Alize Cornet won the first set of her match 62, but fell apart like so many others in another final set defeat and Martin Klizan was a set up in both sets but was still beaten in straight sets.

Jerzy Janowicz might have lost easily on paper, but he had had break points in every one of Steve Darcis' first three service games and couldn't convert which quickly saw him fall apart by the end of the match.


There are at least six matches there that could have easily gone my way with even a slight bounce of the ball falling for the players I had picked at the big moments. That might have actually made this a winning week rather than an embarrassing one that has crushed the season stats in three days.

The picks are still up, but it has been a devastating blow and I would much rather make a few tweaks and leave the tennis until the next set of tournaments. This is simply an ugly week where nothing is going to go right and I don't want any more part of it truth be told!

Some times it is better to say the battle is lost but try and win the war and that is what a long season on the tennis Tour is. You have some bad weeks, but trying to avoid these horrific weeks can be difficult when it really rolls on you.

I would have much rather have seen the picks get nowhere near winning at times because then you can make adjustments as to how they have been made- however, it is much more difficult to be critical of the methods to making picks when they have been as close as those have that I described above where the matches went almost exactly as anticipated except for the players putting the period on the sentence. 


So that will be it for the week as I will update the season statistics when making my next set of picks as the new tournaments begin on Monday. I feel disappointed for the readers this week who might have followed and had a rough week of their own, but I think the chance to refresh and start again on Monday is the best policy when the week has been as 'cursed' as this one has.

Hopefully a few days off will just reset whatever has gone wrong this week and next week is a much stronger return.

Tennis Picks 2014 (July 18th)

Lukas Rosol + 3.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: The last two times these players have met have both come on the clay and both of those matches have also been very competitive with each player winning one.

I am expecting this Quarter Final to have a similar feel and I was surprised that Lukas Rosol has been given as many games as this by a number of layers. He has the big serve that can cause Philipp Kohlschreiber some problems as proven when they met in Stuttgart last week and Rosol has had enough wins in the last two weeks to have built confidence to a high level.

The first serve will be all important for Rosol if he is to win this match and I also hope it is working well enough to remain competitive through the match.

Both players have played well enough this week to think this is going to go at least three sets and Rosol has performed to a level in the last two weeks that makes these games valuable in my opinion, even if he doesn't make it through to the Semi Final.


Roberta Vinci - 3.5 games v Karumi Nara: 2014 has been a contrast for these two players as Roberta Vinci has struggled while Karumi Nara is going to record a career-high wins in a single season on the main Tour.

The Vinci 13 wins and 18 losses on the season have been a real surprise considering she has almost 100 wins when combining 2012 and 2013 (94 wins), but there have been shoots of recovery over the last two weeks.

Vinci reached the Final in Bucharest before coming up short against Simona Halep and she has a couple of wins under her belt here which should improve confidence. Her style of play should match up well against Nara who is another player that could struggle with the number of slices she sees.

Nara has played well on the hard courts all season and she should be making some leaps up the Rankings ahead of the US Open, where she could certainly be a seeded player. However, Nara doesn't have a huge shot in her locker and I can see the veteran Italian using some of the knowledge she has gained to beat her 64, 64.


Richard Gasquet - 5.5 games v Victor Estrella: I have tipped Richard Gasquet to win the tournament in Bogota this week and he got off to a decent start with a straight sets victory over Samuel Groth.

It wasn't surprising that the match needed tie-breaks to settle it with the conditions in Bogota, but I am expecting Gasquet to have an 'easier' time against Victor Estrella.

If Estrella serves well, he could make it competitive as the ball flies in Bogota, but I also think he doesn't have the biggest serve and Gasquet should be able to get enough balls back in play and win the majority of the longer rallies.

There is a clear difference in terms of quality on show and I do think Gasquet can pick up a 64, 62 win.

MY PICKS: Lukas Rosol + 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roberta Vinci - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 5.5 Games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Picks: 9-10, - 2.06 Units (38 Units Staked, - 5.42% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (July 17th)

Dominic Thiem - 1.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: Dominic Thiem has openly admitted that he needs to get to grips on grass court tournaments, but being back on the clay has once again shown the potential this youngster has.

He has come through two Rounds in Hamburg and can start making serious moves up the Rankings if he can see off Leonardo Mayer in this Third Round match, although it has to be said that this will be a tough match for Thiem.

When they met in Madrid earlier this season, Thiem had to come from a set down to beat Mayer, although it could have been a different story if the latter had taken his limited chances to break serve.

Both will be looking for the first serve percentage points won to be the key to their success and I do respect how well Mayer has played through the first seven months of 2014. The Argentinian has to be full of confidence, but Thiem has a real belief in his own ability and I like him to come through in three tough sets.


Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 games v Tobias Kamke: Albert Einstein said it is an indication of madness when you do the same thing over and over again and expect different results.

Having backed the opponents of Tobias Kamke twice already this week, I am going back to the well to go against the German player who has shown little clay court form in the past. Alexandr Dolgopolov is not the most trust worthy player to go against Kamke, but the Ukrainian seems to be showing a lot more commitment to his tennis these days.

That has paid off with some big wins through 2014 and Dolgopolov is close to returning to the World Top 20 while recording a strong win in his first match in Hamburg.

Dolgopolov has performed well on the clay courts in his career including previously winning a Tour title on the surface. If he can serve well, I would expect his variation off the ground to cause problems for Kamke and result in a 76, 63 win.


Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: Two players from Serbia ups the ante for both Dusan Lajovic and Filip Krajinovic who can boost their Ranking with the points they can earn by getting into the Quarter Final of an ATP 500 event.

Lajovic has been showing improvements in his game, especially on the clay courts where he reached the Fourth Round at the French Open and the Quarter Final in Bastad last week. He has had two more impressive wins this week and might catch Filip Krajinovic who is trying to back up a big win over Fabio Fognini.

The older of the two players has also had a lot more experience playing at this level and those can be factored in on the side of Lajovic in this match.

There has been a fair amount of success earned by Krajinovic on the Challenger Tour on clay, but I think he might just have one too many factors going against him and Lajovic should move through.


Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 games v Alexander Zverev: I was surprised by the way Alexander Zverev had control of his emotions in his straight sets win over Mikhail Youzhny in the Second Round, especially when put under pressure.

It was not what I expected from a 17 year old who has not had a lot of experience at this level and I think it might be asking a lot for Zverev to continue his run when he comes up against Santiago Giraldo.

The Colombian has had a day to prepare for this match following his win over Benoit Paire and he has the power and the performances on clay to give Zverev all he can handle. It is also clear that the youngster is very high on confidence and playing with plenty of belief so the key for Giraldo will be getting the first set in the bag.

I think he can do that and that may have Zverev feeling his exploits from the week so far and Giraldo could come up with a 75, 64 win.


Kaia Kanepi - 4.5 games v Richel Hogenkamp: There is something a little strange in Richel Hogenkamp qualifying for Bastad for the second year in a row, but it has been rare to see her attempt to get into tournaments like this over the past twelve months.

Hogenkamp must enjoy the conditions in this part of Sweden, but Kaia Kanepi has been in very strong form over the last month and proved her determination by coming back from the edge of the cliff to beat Johanna Larsson.

As I said when backing Kanepi to beat Larsson, tiredness may be a factor but she did get a day to rest for this match and that could pave the way for another win on the red dirt.

She has generally competed at a much higher level than Hogenkamp and I think that experience and the power that Kanepi has will lead to a 64, 63 win.


Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 games v Shahar Peer: I haven't seen a lot of Karolina Pliskova, but I have seen a player with potential if she can keep hold of the unforced errors that can blight her game. She has a decent serve and return and I would expect Pliskova to move up from her current Ranking of 47.

She should prove to have a little too much in the locker for Shahar Peer who has been having worse and worse years since reaching 48 wins in the 2010 season. It is likely that Peer will buck that trend this season with four more wins needed to reach the 12 win mark she had last season, but it is clear that she is a player in real danger of falling out of the top 100 in the World Rankings.

Peer has only been beyond the Second Round in four tournaments over the last twelve months and I think Pliskova will be dictating this match.

As long as Pliskova can control the unforced error count, I would expect her to be too good for Peer and win this 63, 63.


Ivo Karlovic - 2.5 games v Dudi Sela: Ivo Karlovic improved to 6-0 against Dudi Sela last week and he continues to dominate the sets too with 14 of the last 15 won by the big man including 12 in a row.

As well as Dudi Sela competes, the Karlovic serve poses too many problems for the short, relatively speaking, Sela, while his own game can allow opportunities for players to break his own serve.

That goes for even a limited returner like Karlovic who forces enough balls back in play without an overbearing serve to return and then Sela has to control his errors to hold serve.

I've said Sela struggles with his errors at times and Karlovic should prove too strong again as long as his run to the Final in Newport hasn't affected him adversely, even with three days rest since that Final.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Kaia Kanepi - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-6, + 1.54 Units (26 Units Staked, + 5.92% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (July 16th)

Federico Delbonis - 3.5 games v Tobias Kamke: Twelve months ago, Federico Delbonis qualified for this tournament and really announced himself on the main Tour by reaching the Final at the event, including beating Roger Federer in the Semi Final.

Since then, Delbonis has been moving up the Rankings and picked up a title in Sao Paolo earlier this season, while his run to the Quarter Final in Stuttgart last week shows his capabilities on the clay courts.

It won't be an easy match against Tobias Kamke who will be supported by the home crowd, but I do think Delbonis will be able to set up the easier points from the serve and the Argentinian is very comfortable on the clay.

Out of the two players, Delbonis has a clear edge on the surface and I think he can win this match 64, 64 as long as he isn't overly burdened by the points he is defending this week.


Lukas Rosol - 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: Both of these players are coming off successful weeks on the Tour with Lukas Rosol reaching the Final in Stuttgart and Joao Sousa doing the same in Bastad, while both also failed to win the title.

Both players are comfortable on the clay, but I would perhaps argue that Sousa is more consistent... So why have I picked Lukas Rosol to win and cover this spread? That is because I think the Czech player has a higher ceiling than Sousa if he is in form.

He didn't play well against Julian Reister in the First Round on Tuesday, but he played the big points well enough and that helped Rosol take a tight first set. His serve should be more effective than it was yesterday, and that could put Sousa under some pressure.

The match may also come down to fitness as both have a lot of tennis in their legs from last week, but I think Rosol can find a 76, 64 win in this one.


Andreas Seppi v Juan Monaco: The one factor that has Andreas Seppi as the underdog in this match as far as I am concerned is the lack of tennis he has played since Wimbledon and the move from the grass back onto the clay courts being an issue for the layers.

The Italian might not have the best serve in the world, but that shot can be hidden to some extent on the slower clay courts and Seppi will feel he can beat Juan Monaco again after doing that in straight sets at the French Open two months ago.

He is also facing a player in Monaco who has struggled for form in 2014, even if he had an impressive win in the First Round. Monaco has to work hard for the majority of his points and his consistency hasn't reached the levels of previous years.

Both players will have opportunities to break serve, but I think Seppi can make it three wins from four matches on clay against Monaco.


Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 games v Alexander Zverev: Alexander Zverev became the youngest player to win an ATP 500 Tour match since Grigor Dimitrov in 2009 when he comfortably beat Robin Haase in the First Round in Hamburg.

There is no doubt that Zverev is playing with a lot of confidence at the moment after a close loss to Lukas Rosol last week and having won a Challenger tournament on the clay a couple of weeks ago, but facing Mikhail Youzhny gives him a veteran challenge.

Youzhny is on the downhill path in his career as he reaches the final throes and he is having a tougher 2014 season. He did reach the Semi Final in Stuttgart last week which is a rare successful week in 2014 for Youzhny and I think his know-how on the court may give the younger man too many problems to deal with.

It'll be a competitive match but I do think Youzhny finds a 75, 64 win.


Klara Koukalova - 3.5 games v Kristina Mladenovic: After a poor start to her match with Donna Vekic, Klara Koukalova took control of the last two sets to book her place in the Second Round in Istanbul.

Koukalova has had a strong season on the hard courts to this point and may consider herself as a dangerous player in the coming weeks when the Tour moves to North America. Her serve can be a weakness, but I do think Koukalova gets the better of the young Frenchwoman Kristina Mladenovic.

Mladenovic hasn't had the same level of success on the hard courts over the last two years as her opponent and she has found the main Tour level a little tough to negotiate. Her win over Na Li at the French Open in the First Round earned Mladenovic some headlines back home, but I think she will struggle with the veteran Koukalova who has the match playing experience to win matches like this.

As long as Koukalova doesn't serve as poorly throughout the match as she started off against Vekic, I would expect this to be a more routine 64, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Federico Delbonis - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lukas Rosol - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Klara Koukalova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-3, + 3.44 Units (16 Units Staked, + 21.5% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (July 14th)

A number of new tournaments begin this Monday, but I have only made one outright pick from the event being held in Bogota which can be read here.


Andrey Golubev v Benoit Paire: Andrey Golubev is one of the more erratic players on the Tour which makes him a dangerous player to back, but I do think he will get the better of Benoit Paire.

Confidence has to be low for Paire considering he has lost nine of his last ten matches and he had a poor time on the clay courts earlier this season. There was no improvement with another loss in Stuttgart last week and he faces a player in Golubev that at least got to a Semi Final on the clay a couple of weeks ago, albeit on the Challenger level.

At this level of tennis, confidence does play a huge part in matches and Paire has lost a lot recently which can be a tough trend to break. I don't like some aspects of Golubev's game on the clay where his mistakes can be exposed, but I do think he can use a big first serve to set himself up for a win.

It might take three sets, but Golubev may just hold his nerve better and move through to the Second Round.


Albert Montanes - 2.5 games v Gastao Elias: This has been a down year for the veteran Albert Montanes, but he was a little unfortunate to lose in the First Round last week and I still think there is enough in the tank to beat this qualifier.

Gastao Elias has played well on the Challenger circuit having reached the Final in two tournaments on the clay courts and he has won two matches to reach the First Round proper which will make him dangerous.

However, Elias has struggled at this level and the veteran Albert Montanes can at least give him something to think about. Montanes will have to play better than he has in his recent matches as he has three losses in a row, but it certainly looks like the Spaniard is going to slip down the Rankings.

Even with that in mind, Montanes has the know-how to win a match like this and I would expect him to come through 75, 64 after a few breaks of serve for both players.


Jarkko Nieminen - 2.5 games v Tobias Kamke: Jarkko Nieminen has won all four previous matches against Tobias Kamke, but it is just a quirk of the scheduling that all but one of those wins have come at the same tournament in Stockholm over the last few years.

Neither player has a dominant record on the clay courts which makes this a closer match to call than the odds may suggest, but I do think Nieminen can cause problems for Kamke.

The home crowd may give Kamke the support he needs to cause a surprise win, but I think Nieminen has the more effective serve that should help him hold serve more times than the German.

Another match that may need to go the distance to produce a winner, I like Nieminen to win 63, 36, 63.


Klara Koukalova - 3.5 games v Donna Vekic: It is a strange scheduling decision for Klara Koukalova to move from the grass courts to the clay courts for one tournament before heading to Istanbul for this hard court event.

However, Koukalova took an early loss last week and will have had time to get to Turkey and accustomed to the courts, while she will take further confidence from beating Donna Vekic on the hard courts twice already this season.

Koukalova has won all four sets they have competed in that time and she certainly has the return game to make life awkward for Vekic, although she will also need to serve effectively if she is to win this match.

Both players have shown decent hard court form in 2014 and both may feel the next two months are an important time to build points, but I think Koukalova may have the mental edge to come through in two tight sets.

MY PICKS: Andrey Golubev @ 1.83 Stan James (2 Units)
Albert Montanes - 2.5 Games @ 1.81 Unitbet (2 Units)
Jarkko Nieminen - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Klara Koukalova - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Unitbet (2 Units)