Tennis Picks 2018 (July 17th)

I've got a few things going on at the moment in my personal life which means I will simply put down my Tennis Picks from the host of Tuesday matches that have been scheduled.


MY PICKS: Simone Bolelli - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
John Millman - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.52 Units (8 Units Staked, - 6.50% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 17th)

2017 in general feels like it is has been rushing through and that is underlined by the Tennis Tour which has taken in three of the four Grand Slams.

Wimbledon 2017 came to a close on Sunday and I have to say it was not really a stand out tournament, although it will be a memorable one from a historical point of view. Roger Federer winning his eighth Wimbledon title, the first male player to do that in the history of the tournament, will be replayed for many years although it was the second of two disappointing Singles Finals we saw this weekend.

Garbine Muguruza was the other winner, but it may be a case of what may have been for Venus Williams who was leading 5-4 and earned two set points on the Spaniard's serve. Not for the first time over the last two weeks, Muguruza saved those to come out of the game and she went on to win the final NINE games of the Final to pick up a second Grand Slam crown.

I will admit the last time she won a Slam at the French Open last year, I thought Muguruza had all the tools to be a leading contender for every Slam following, but she didn't cope with the new expectations. With more experience we may see Muguruza kick on from the Wimbledon title, although the US Open looks to be another wide open draw on the women's side of the tournament.

It will be Roger Federer who goes into New York City as the favourite for the men's title with the likes of Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray both dealing with injuries which may leave them undercooked for a tilt at the title. Rafael Nadal is playing well enough to be a threat, but it does have to be said that the court conditions we usually see at Flushing Meadows will favour Federer more than the Spaniard and he will be the man to beat in that draw.


There are six weeks before the US Open begins on Monday 28th August and the Tour doesn't stop to gather a breath after the exertions of Wimbledon. While the big hard court events in North America will be played in August, preparation for the US Open will begin later this month in Atlanta and Washington.

This week it is a chance for the clay court loving players to enjoy some final tournaments on their favourite surface. The events in Bastad, Bucharest, Gstaad and Umag are clay events on the ATP and WTA side of the Tour, while the men will have a final grass court event which is held in Newport.


Wimbledon did prove to be a tough tournament for the tennis picks with that generally being the worst of my Grand Slam picks. The outright picks did at least bring in a profit, but the daily picks struggled and the grass court season in general was a poor one for my picks.

A bit better luck may have turned things in my favour, but I just have to take it for what it is and look for better over the remainder of the month to perhaps get into a stronger position.

Picks this week may come out a little inconsistently with the tournaments being played not exactly the strongest, but if anything does take my fancy I will be sure to put those picks down.

On Monday I have only had my eye on one pick coming from the WTA Bucharest First Round.


Carla Suarez Navarro - 5.5 games v Annika Beck: It can be difficult to trust Carla Suarez Navarro when asking the Spaniard to cover big numbers simply because her serve is one that can be attacked by opponents. The return game is where Annika Beck's strength is too, which makes this a difficult match for Suarez Navarro, although I do give the latter a big enough edge on the clay courts to be able to come through with a healthy margin of victory.

While you would say that Suarez Navarro has had a difficult time on the grass, she has at least been putting matches into the legs compared with Beck who has played just twice in the last eight weeks. Both of those matches ended in one-sided defeats for the German and Beck has lost six of her last seven matches on the Tour to slip down the World Rankings.

Suarez Navarro has had some solid runs on the clay courts, which is no surprise considering how much she enjoys the surface, but some defeats will have raised eyebrows over the clay season in 2017. Defeats to Lauren Davis and Coco Vandeweghe as a favourite were a surprise, but you can't ignore how well Suarez Navarro tends to play against players Ranked outside the top 50 when it comes to meeting them on the clay.

The Spaniard is 27-2 in that spot on the clay, and eighteen of those wins would have come by a margin to cover this number of games. The serve can be an issue for Suarez Navarro, but she has returned really effectively when facing the lower Ranked players on the Tour and I will be looking for that to show up in this match with Beck, whose own serve is very vulnerable.

Beck's own numbers do not look great when facing players inside the top 50 of the World Rankings and on the clay courts. I do think she will have her chances to break serve, but I am not sure she will do that enough to stay with Suarez Navarro who should earn at least four or five breaks in this one.

It is a big number, but I am looking for Suarez Navarro to perhaps move into the Second Round behind a 6-3, 6-2 kind of score.

MY PICKS: Carla Suarez Navarro - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Season 2017: - 33.74 Units (1430 Units Staked, - 2.36% Yield)

Season 2016: - 5.64 Units (2013 Units Staked, - 0.00% Yield)

Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Picks 2016 (July 17th)

Another week on the Tour is almost completed as we get to see the Finals from Bastad, Bucharest, Hamburg, Gstaad and Newport all played on Sunday.

The Davis Cup Quarter Finals are also completed on Sunday and all four ties are still alive going into the final day. That means there are some big Singles Rubbers to be played in the four locations those Quarter Finals are being played and the potential of seeing players have to get through a Rubber 5 match is going to be fun to watch.

The picks have had a second successful set of tournaments in a row following on from a strong Wimbledon, but I need to build on this through the remainder of the season. That consistency has not been with me over the last twelve months and I also have to be careful Sunday doesn't ruin what has been a strong week so far with the remaining picks for these tournaments.

Pablo Cuevas - 3.5 games v Martin Klizan: It was another match where Pablo Cuevas did not drop serve, but he failed to cover the handicap for me in his Semi Final win over Renzo Olivo. However I liked the fact that Cuevas created as many chances to break serve as he did and I think he is in the kind of form which will make it difficult for Martin Klizan to get the better of him.

Injuries have affected the Klizan season, but I am never really fully convinced about this player. He has a very good serve, but Klizan seems to go walkabout mentally in matches and that will be exposed by someone like Cuevas who seems to be much more steady with his form within matches.

This week has been a strong one for Klizan who has won the last seven sets he has competed in, although I have to say he has been favoured by the draw. Klizan has beaten Daniel Gimeno Traver and Stephane Robert in the last two Rounds after both of those players came through tough matches prior to facing the Slovakian. That has been a big bonus for Klizan who went 1-3 on the clay courts at this time of the year in 2015 and who faces his most difficult opponent of the week.

I think Cuevas will have an edge in the Final as he has played better on the clay than his opponent and doesn't have the same fluctuations in form as Klizan does. If he continues serving as he has been, I think Cuevas comes through with a 75, 64 win and I will back him to cover this handicap on the way to picking up another clay court title in 2016.

Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: The two Semi Final matches in Bastad had to be played simultaneously thanks to the poor weather in the area, but the title will once again be won by a Spaniard. Albert Ramos-Vinolas beat David Ferrer in the Semi Final to snap his run of six losses to his compatriot, but this might be the tougher match at this point with Fernando Verdasco showing his top form on his run to the Final.

After recovering an early break in his own Semi Final, Verdasco dominated Gastao Elias and none of the players he has faced so far this week have managed to take more than three games in a single set against him. While saying that, it has to be noted that is easily the most difficult match Verdasco will have faced in Bastad.

It is strange to see Ramos-Vinolas coming in as the higher Ranked player, but there is no doubting the respect Verdasco will offer him as the former reached the Quarter Final at the French Open. The key for Ramos-Vinolas will be dealing with the power that Verdasco has, while the latter is also very strong when facing fellow lefties on the Tour.

These moments have become much rarer for Verdasco than a few years ago, but I have to think he has to be backed to overcome Ramos-Vinolas. I feel Verdasco has been playing some of his best tennis this week and he used his momentum to win one title in Bucharest earlier in the season and his current momentum will make it difficult for Ramos-Vinolas to stop him.

After a close first set, I think Verdasco will earn a little more belief and win this title with a 75, 64 win.


Gilles Muller v Ivo Karlovic: There is going to be a couple of mental hurdles for Gilles Muller to overcome in the Newport Final, but doing that will give him a chance to win his first ever title on the main Tour. The first is dealing with the Ivo Karlovic serve which can be frustrating at the best of times and the second is overcoming any nerves in trying to win a first main Tour title.

Muller will have recent experience of playing in a Final having reached that position on the grass in Hertogenbosch last month having beaten Karlovic on the way through. His serve was very impressive that day and Muller will need to serve well as he won't have a lot of chances to break serve in this one himself.

Tie-breakers are likely to be the order of the day, but Muller's lefty serve can give him an advantage when it comes to securing points behind serve. That shot naturally goes into the weaker Karlovic wing and the key for both players might be getting off the first shot when they do see any second serves.

Both players have admitted that there is little between them and a few big points will decide the match. However I like the underdog Muller in terms of recent form and I will back him to win his first title at odds against.


Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Federico Delbonis: Fabio Fognini played twice on Saturday, winning the Singles Rubber but taking part in the Doubles defeat later in the day. That means the pressure is on Fognini to keep Italy in the tie and force a final Rubber to decide the Semi Final place, but he has thrived in Davis Cup action representing his country.

The destruction of Juan Monaco on Saturday had much to do with Fognini's opponent playing far below the level he usually produces. However that has improved Fognini's Davis Cup record as he gets set for a much more difficult task in beating Federico Delbonis who has a 2-1 head to head advantage over him on the clay courts.

Delbonis played very well in beating Andreas Seppi on Friday and he will be well rested as he looks to secure Argentina's place in the Semi Finals. His lefty serve is a real threat on the clay courts, but managing the crowd will be a difficulty for him despite winning his first away Rubber in the Davis Cup on Friday.

I definitely think this will be a lot closer than Fognini's win over Monaco, but I still think the home favourite can come through. Andreas Seppi wasn't totally at the races in his defeat to Delbonis on Friday, but he came close to getting into a commanding position in that match and I think Fognini will be a little better in a 63, 36, 63, 76 win.


Dusan Lajovic-Kyle Edmund over 38.5 games: This could be the crucial Rubber for Great Britain if they want to continue the defence of the Davis Cup they won last season with the pressure piled on Kyle Edmund to get it done. The performance of James Ward in his Singles defeat on Saturday doesn't inspire a lot of confidence that he can turn that around against Janko Tipsarevic and so Great Britain will be looking at Edmund.

This is going to be a much tougher test for Edmund when he faces Dusan Lajovic who was convincingly better than Ward on Saturday. His best performances come on the clay courts and Lajovic has had some top wins on the surface while also pushing Stan Wawrinka to four sets in a defeat to him in the Second Round of the French Open that Wawrinka eventually won.

Lajovic looked to have plenty of variation in his game on Saturday and the backhand down the line looked very good. However the power looks like it will come from the Edmund side of the court and this looks a fascinating Rubber 4 that has plenty on the line for both nations.

I would be surprised if either player has as 'easy' a time as they did in their first Singles wins. With both Lajovic and Edmund comfortable on the clay courts I am fully expecting this to go at least four sets and it might even develop into a classic five setter. Either way I am looking for the players to combine to cover the total games market and we might also potentially see a final Rubber to decide the winner of the tie.


Marin Cilic - 1.5 games v John Isner: It won't be many times in a players career that they would have lost back to back five set matches while leading 2-0 in sets. That is what Marin Cilic has to deal with, but helping Ivan Dodig win the Doubles Rubber in this Davis Cup tie on Saturday has kept Croatia alive and I think Cilic can get the better of John Isner in this big Rubber 4.

That would bring Croatia back to 2-2 in the tie, although Cilic's defeat to Jack Sock has to have left some mental scars after he blew his chances to beat Roger Federer at Wimbledon. Cilic didn't serve well enough in the match with Sock and failing to do better in that department will make it almost impossible to beat a huge server like John Isner who won't give up too many chances on his own serve.

Isner will have some sympathy for Cilic having also been beaten at Wimbledon despite taking the first two sets against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. He at least bounced back by beating Borna Coric comfortably in this tie and Isner was rested for the Doubles which would have been expected to be the last Rubber as the USA can call upon the Bryan Brothers.

He will have his own mental demons to cope with as Isner has lost all five previous matches against Cilic. Those losses include straight set losses in the United States in Miami and Delray Beach, but the two Grand Slam matches have both gone the distance and needed at least sixteen games in the final set to separate them.

I can't imagine this being an easy win for either player, but Cilic can use the fact he has beaten Isner every time they have met to his favour. Even at two sets up it won't be easy for Cilic having blown his last two Singles matches from that position, but I like him keeping this tie alive for the final Rubber.


Jack Sock - 5.5 games v Borna Coric: This final Rubber will only be played if Marin Cilic has been able to beat John Isner like I think he will and that will mean the pressure is on the two young players in the United States and Croatia squads.

I have to say that Jack Sock showed tremendous resolve in coming back from two sets down to beat Cilic on Friday and it is the kind of performance that can jump start his career. However the full effect of that win will only be felt if Sock is able to complete the win for the United States and that is a different kind of pressure for him to deal with as he will be expected to win the match.

He is facing a very talented player in Borna Coric but one who has struggled for consistency on what is a long season on the Tour. Since his run to the Final in Chennai at the start of the season, Coric has had a hard time earning results on the hard courts as his serve can be a little inconsistent which can be devastating on the faster surfaces.

Coric was beaten fairly handily by John Isner on Friday and I think Sock can give him plenty of problems too. Sock will have to serve better than he did in his win over Cilic, particularly the way he served in the first two sets, but I think the American can bring it home for his nation in a 64, 76, 63 win.

MY PICKS: Pablo Cuevas - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Muller @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic-Kyle Edmund Over 38.5 Total Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 23-14, + 13.42 Units (74 Units Staked, + 18.14% Yield)

Davis Cup Tennis Picks (July 17th)

The Davis Cup Quarter Finals are beginning this Friday and we also have the business end of the tournaments in Bastad, Bucharest and Newport that will be concluded by Sunday.

I have backed Serbia and Australia in the Outright Markets for the Davis Cup earlier this year, but I think the former are looking very vulnerable as they head to Argentina without Novak Djokovic. Victor Troicki has been playing well, but I am not convinced he is as effective on the clay courts and now Serbia will be facing an Argentina team very comfortable on the surface and with the home crowd behind them.

I do think Australia will be alright against Kazakhstan, while Belgium are strong favourites to beat a Canada team without Milos Raonic or Vasek Pospisil.

The remaining tie is perhaps the most evenly matched on paper as Great Britain take on France at Queens Club with Andy Murray in the line up and expected to win two rubbers. The key for Great Britain is either hoping James Ward can produce something special as he has in recent Davis Cup ties, but the bigger opportunity might come in the Doubles where France are missing specialist Julien Benneteau.

However, both Nicolas Mahut and Richard Gasquet have played well as Doubles players in the past too and I do think France are the worthy narrow favourites in this tie.


With the tournaments spread over the day, some of the markets are not up when I am writing this post so any additional picks will be put up during the day if I do find any picks to go with.


Thanasi Kokkinakis - 3.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: Playing on the grass courts should give the young Australian players a chance to build a good lead on the opening day of this Davis Cup Quarter Final and I think Thanasi Kokkinankis can get them off to a good start.

Don't get me wrong, I still think Kokkinakis has to find his feet on this surface having really struggled with his return game in early defeats at Queens Club and Wimbledon. The former loss to Gilles Simon was more forgivable as Kokkinakis had to make a trip back to Australia prior to that to see an ill family member, but the defeat to Leonardo Mayer at Wimbledon was perhaps a disappointment.

He did show his character in winning his first live Davis Cup tie earlier this year from two sets down against Lukas Rosol away from home and I expect Kokkinakis to be inspired in Darwin in front of a full support.

Kokkinakis has to be aware of how well Mikhail Kukushkin has played for Kazakhstan in Davis Cup action, although grass is not his favoured surface. Kukushkin is 15-9 for Kazakhstan in Davis Cup matches, although he is just 3-2 outdoors and more worrying has to be the fact he has lost his last 5 live Davis Cup rubbers on the road.

I expect Kukushkin does cause some problems because he has a decent serve and is a talented player that caused Andy Murray some considerable problems at Wimbledon. His experience of playing away Davis Cup rubbers will help him, but I just think Kokkinakis can put some scoreboard pressure on him with his own service games.

The layers are right in thinking this might be closer than some might think, but I think the long journey to Australia, playing on his weakest surface and Kokkinakis winning a big Davis Cup rubber already this season goes against Kukushkin. It might need four sets, but I like the Australian's to win this one and Kokkinakis to cover this number.


James Ward-Gilles Simon Over 3.5 Sets: Over the last couple of years, James Ward has done his best to raise his level when it comes to Davis Cup rubbers and he is 3-3 in live rubbers in that time. The two defeats in Italy on the clay against Fabio Fognini are forgivable losses for Ward, but he has dug in deep to beat the likes of John Isner, Sam Querrey and Dmitry Tursunov in that time.

Those wins have encouraged Andy Murray to play for Great Britain despite some of the awkward timing of the Davis Cup which has kept many of the top ten players in the World Rankings from taking part. However, Murray recognises that Great Britain have some sort of chance with Ward producing the goods and the entire team will be hoping the Londoner can use previous success at Queens Club to help Great Britain take the lead in this Quarter Final with France.

James Ward reached a Semi Final at Queens in the past and only recently was a Third Round player at Wimbledon which has helped him crack the top 100 in the World Rankings for the first time in his career. He is going to need to be at his best against Gilles Simon who has had a very productive grass court season and was a Quarter Finalist in SW19 earlier this month.

However, I think Ward has a real chance of coming close to an upset in this one as Simon has struggled representing France in the past and is just 5-9 in Davis Cup rubbers. Gilles Simon beat Jan-Lennard Struff earlier this season in France's victory over Germany in the Davis Cup which ended a run of 4 consecutive live rubber losses and was also Simon's first appearance in two seasons.

While he has played well, Simon does have a game which will always give someone a chance of breaking serve. On this surface it might only take one break to settle a set and while I think he might be too consistent for Ward, I'd be surprised if this is a match that is concluded in three sets. James Ward has ended up in some very tough, long matches in Davis Cup in recent years and this could easily be another.


Andy Murray-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Over 3.5 sets: The second rubber on the opening day of this Davis Cup Quarter Final has every chance of at least going three sets too, especially if Jo-Wilfried Tsonga can get some joy out of the Andy Murray second serve.

It is going to be interesting to see how Murray is coping with his surprisingly one-sided defeat to Roger Federer in the Wimbledon Semi Finals, while the British Number 1 will know all about Tsonga. This will be the fifth meeting between the two on grass and while Andy Murray has won the last four, it has to be said that Tsonga has won at least one set in all of those matches.

That includes a couple of three setters at Queens Club in the past and Tsonga is capable of taking the racquet out of Murray's hands if he is serving well and sees enough second serves to attack. His recent form has not been much to write home about as Tsonga had to miss the majority of the grass court season with an injury and was a disappointing Third Round loser to Ivo Karlovic at Wimbledon.

I make Andy Murray a strong favourite to win, but both players have performed very well in Singles duty in Davis Cup and that should inspire Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win at least one set. I think both players will be able to win a set, but Murray is likely to outlast Tsonga from a fitness perspective and eventually come through in four sets. However, I would rather back this match lasting at least four sets which looks a big price considering how previous matches between the two have gone.

Andy Murray and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga have some doubts surrounding them after Wimbledon came to a close and this could be close for a while before Murray takes control.


Anna Karolina Schmiedlova - 2.5 games v Danka Kovinic: Both players have been in good form this week in Bucharest and they could be playing late in the evening which is good news for Danka Kovinic. She had a long, tough match against Julia Goerges in the Second Round, but has been given all the time she will need to be ready for this match, although I have to say Anna Karolina Schmiedlova has been looking very strong.

Matches between them in the past have been split two each and it was Kovinic won their most recent match last year on the hard courts in three tight sets. Back to back long weeks for Kovinic might play a part in this match as an accumulation of fatigue is potentially one hindrance to the player from Montenegro in this Quarter Final.

Both players have had the majority of their success on the clay courts this season, but it is a surface that Kovinic spends much more time on than Schmiedlova. I am not sure that will be enough to see her overcome her opponent who has been serving well and hitting the ball sweetly this week.

As much as I respect Kovinic at this level on this surface, I think Schmiedlova breaks her down in a three set win.


Jan Hernych + 3.5 games v Jack Sock: The tournament in Newport has regularly sprung up some surprise results in the past and this year looks to be no different. The first Semi Final was set last night as Rajeev Ram gets set to take on John-Patrick Smith on Saturday and those two names are not exactly renowned for their impact on the Singles Tour.

There is every chance that Jan Hernych could be another surprise Semi Finalist if he continues building on the momentum which has seen him qualify and win two matches in the main draw. My concern for the veteran won't just be his opponent Jack Sock, who looks the best player left in the draw, but also the fact that he had to play a long, long match with Alejandro Falla in the Second Round.

Three tie-breakers were needed for Hernych to see off Falla, but he did get Thursday off which should help him restore some energy. He is an older player, but Hernych should use the fact he beat Sock here two years ago to give him some mental confidence, as well as the fact that the courts seem to be playing very low which is good for someone who will attack the net and look to volley.

Sock has been a mixed bag in his first two performances here and grass is still a surface that he is getting to grips with as a Singles player. He did win the Doubles title at Wimbledon last year, but I am not sure Sock is happiest on this surface and his serve has not been as solid as he would have liked.

If Hernych serves well, I would expect him to keep this close and perhaps steal a set which will give him a good chance to stay within this number.


Federico Delbonis v Victor Troicki: If there is anything to learn from the Kazakhstan performances in the Davis Cup over the last few years, it is that some player really raise their game when it comes to representing their country in this competition. Victor Troicki has done that for Serbia with his 14-9 record in Davis Cup Singles matches, although the leading player for his nation in this tie has a 2-4 record on clay which is arguably his worst surface.

Argentina will be hoping that is a key for their path through to the Davis Cup Semi Finals and Federico Delbonis has been given one of the matches on the opening day of the Quarter Final. He has been rewarded for winning the vital fifth rubber against Brazil and there is little doubt that Delbonis is most at home on the clay courts.

While Delbonis has a lot of Ranking places to make up, it has to be said that he is 26-18 on the clay in main Tour events over the last two seasons while Troicki is just 6-7. That hasn't been missed by the layers who make this a pick 'em contest, but I think Troicki has been playing a lot of tennis over the last month and might struggle with against a decent clay courter.

Delbonis should be set to go having won a Challenger on the clay last month and only playing a single match on grass which means he has been preparing in Buenos Aires for some time. His experience of winning a decisive fifth rubber should help him in this one and I think Delbonis puts Argentina into a commanding position on the first day.

I like what Troicki has done since returning to the Tour and I do think he will be inspired by being the Number 1 Serbian player, but this is his worst surface and I think it will be tough for him to deal with someone as comfortable on clay as Delbonis.

MY PICKS: Thanasi Kokkinakis - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
James Ward-Gilles Simon Over 3.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Over 3.5 Sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jan Hernych + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-9, - 7.04 Units (30 Units Staked, - 23.47% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (July 17th)

Dominic Thiem - 1.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: Dominic Thiem has openly admitted that he needs to get to grips on grass court tournaments, but being back on the clay has once again shown the potential this youngster has.

He has come through two Rounds in Hamburg and can start making serious moves up the Rankings if he can see off Leonardo Mayer in this Third Round match, although it has to be said that this will be a tough match for Thiem.

When they met in Madrid earlier this season, Thiem had to come from a set down to beat Mayer, although it could have been a different story if the latter had taken his limited chances to break serve.

Both will be looking for the first serve percentage points won to be the key to their success and I do respect how well Mayer has played through the first seven months of 2014. The Argentinian has to be full of confidence, but Thiem has a real belief in his own ability and I like him to come through in three tough sets.


Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 games v Tobias Kamke: Albert Einstein said it is an indication of madness when you do the same thing over and over again and expect different results.

Having backed the opponents of Tobias Kamke twice already this week, I am going back to the well to go against the German player who has shown little clay court form in the past. Alexandr Dolgopolov is not the most trust worthy player to go against Kamke, but the Ukrainian seems to be showing a lot more commitment to his tennis these days.

That has paid off with some big wins through 2014 and Dolgopolov is close to returning to the World Top 20 while recording a strong win in his first match in Hamburg.

Dolgopolov has performed well on the clay courts in his career including previously winning a Tour title on the surface. If he can serve well, I would expect his variation off the ground to cause problems for Kamke and result in a 76, 63 win.


Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: Two players from Serbia ups the ante for both Dusan Lajovic and Filip Krajinovic who can boost their Ranking with the points they can earn by getting into the Quarter Final of an ATP 500 event.

Lajovic has been showing improvements in his game, especially on the clay courts where he reached the Fourth Round at the French Open and the Quarter Final in Bastad last week. He has had two more impressive wins this week and might catch Filip Krajinovic who is trying to back up a big win over Fabio Fognini.

The older of the two players has also had a lot more experience playing at this level and those can be factored in on the side of Lajovic in this match.

There has been a fair amount of success earned by Krajinovic on the Challenger Tour on clay, but I think he might just have one too many factors going against him and Lajovic should move through.


Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 games v Alexander Zverev: I was surprised by the way Alexander Zverev had control of his emotions in his straight sets win over Mikhail Youzhny in the Second Round, especially when put under pressure.

It was not what I expected from a 17 year old who has not had a lot of experience at this level and I think it might be asking a lot for Zverev to continue his run when he comes up against Santiago Giraldo.

The Colombian has had a day to prepare for this match following his win over Benoit Paire and he has the power and the performances on clay to give Zverev all he can handle. It is also clear that the youngster is very high on confidence and playing with plenty of belief so the key for Giraldo will be getting the first set in the bag.

I think he can do that and that may have Zverev feeling his exploits from the week so far and Giraldo could come up with a 75, 64 win.


Kaia Kanepi - 4.5 games v Richel Hogenkamp: There is something a little strange in Richel Hogenkamp qualifying for Bastad for the second year in a row, but it has been rare to see her attempt to get into tournaments like this over the past twelve months.

Hogenkamp must enjoy the conditions in this part of Sweden, but Kaia Kanepi has been in very strong form over the last month and proved her determination by coming back from the edge of the cliff to beat Johanna Larsson.

As I said when backing Kanepi to beat Larsson, tiredness may be a factor but she did get a day to rest for this match and that could pave the way for another win on the red dirt.

She has generally competed at a much higher level than Hogenkamp and I think that experience and the power that Kanepi has will lead to a 64, 63 win.


Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 games v Shahar Peer: I haven't seen a lot of Karolina Pliskova, but I have seen a player with potential if she can keep hold of the unforced errors that can blight her game. She has a decent serve and return and I would expect Pliskova to move up from her current Ranking of 47.

She should prove to have a little too much in the locker for Shahar Peer who has been having worse and worse years since reaching 48 wins in the 2010 season. It is likely that Peer will buck that trend this season with four more wins needed to reach the 12 win mark she had last season, but it is clear that she is a player in real danger of falling out of the top 100 in the World Rankings.

Peer has only been beyond the Second Round in four tournaments over the last twelve months and I think Pliskova will be dictating this match.

As long as Pliskova can control the unforced error count, I would expect her to be too good for Peer and win this 63, 63.


Ivo Karlovic - 2.5 games v Dudi Sela: Ivo Karlovic improved to 6-0 against Dudi Sela last week and he continues to dominate the sets too with 14 of the last 15 won by the big man including 12 in a row.

As well as Dudi Sela competes, the Karlovic serve poses too many problems for the short, relatively speaking, Sela, while his own game can allow opportunities for players to break his own serve.

That goes for even a limited returner like Karlovic who forces enough balls back in play without an overbearing serve to return and then Sela has to control his errors to hold serve.

I've said Sela struggles with his errors at times and Karlovic should prove too strong again as long as his run to the Final in Newport hasn't affected him adversely, even with three days rest since that Final.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Kaia Kanepi - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-6, + 1.54 Units (26 Units Staked, + 5.92% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2013 (July 17th)

So what to make of the news that Martina Hingis is coming out of retirement? The former World Number 1 is playing in a doubles tournament in the next couple of weeks and has spoken about her desire to return to competition being inspired by performances in the World Team Tennis tournament taking place in the United States.

I am not sure how I feel about her coming back- I have nothing against her wanting to make a return, but the manner in which she retired in 2007, after failing a cocaine test, was just strange as far as I am concerned, especially as Hingis denied taking anything. She has also been coaching on the Tour, but perhaps she has been inspired by seeing Serena Williams remain at the top of the Rankings as well as players like Sara Errani and Roberta Vinci using their variation to remain competitive.

It will be interesting to see if Hingis returns to singles action as well as doubles, but I wouldn't expect her to be a threat to win a Grand Slam in her comeback if she does complete it all the way.

The tournaments around the world will be moving on to the Second Round for the most part on Wednesday and these are the picks from the action on Wednesday.

Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Roberto Bautista-Agut: It will be interesting to see how Fernando Verdasco responds to his defeat in the Final at Bastad last week, but he has shown enough form to think he can take care of Roberto Bautista-Agut in this Second Round match.

Over the last month, Verdasco has won plenty of matches and that confidence could see him through this match. He will need to cut down on the double faults that eventually cost him the chance to win the title in Sweden last week, but he has the power to cause plenty of problems for Bautista-Agut in this one.

The latter had a decent week in Stuttgart last time out, but he might find he is overpowered in this one by his compatriot. Bautista-Agut will look to force Verdasco to play a lot of backhand shots in this one, but Verdasco has been in good enough form to find a way to get his big forehand into play and I expect that will prove to be the difference.

Hopefully Verdasco has left the errors back in Bastad and he can come through this one 64, 64.

Ernests Gulbis - 4.5 games v Jan Hajek: Jan Hajek has already won three matches this week in Hamburg to reach the Second Round of the tournament, but Ernests Gulbis could be a little too good for him in this match.

Hajek can't be underestimated as he has reached a Quarter Final on the clay courts earlier this season and also reached the Semi Final in Bastad at a similar time of the season last year.

However, his serve is not the best and Gulbis should be able to find plenty of opportunities to at least get involved in those games. I would also expect the Latvian to be a little more comfortable on his own serve, although the clay does make life slightly easier for the returner.

I just feel Gulbis should be suitably motivated with a potential chance to take on Roger Federer in the Third Round and I also think his game will match up well in this one and lead to a 64, 63 win.

Robin Haase + 3.5 games v Jerzy Janowicz: It might be foolish to take the games with Robin Haase in this Second Round match after he struggled so badly in the First Round on Tuesday, but that win may give him the confidence to at least make life difficult for Jerzy Janowicz.

The Polish player is making his first appearance since reaching the Semi Final at Wimbledon and it will be interesting to see if he can back up that result over the rest of the season. Janowicz is only 6-5 on the clay courts this season, although he has been beaten by better players than Haase and fans of the big man will point to his four set victory over Robin Haase at the French Open as a reason to why he can go through in this one.

My issue is that Janowicz is going to be feeling a different pressure these days now he has broken out at Wimbledon and while he has the personality to deal with that in my opinion, the first couple of months after a run like he had can be hard to replicate.

There is every chance that Haase could steal a set with a nothing to lose attitude and this does look too many games for Janowicz to be giving away on the slowest surface at this stage of his career.

Johanna Larsson - 5.5 games v Nina Bratchikova: Up until this week, Nina Bratchikova had lost all five matches she had played on the clay courts this season, at the main Tour level, and she is just 3-10 in the last two seasons.

It has been tough for Bratchikova on the surface and she has been comfortably beaten more often than not and it could be the case of more of the same on Wednesday as she takes on a home favourite in Johanna Larsson.

Larsson has hardly pulled up trees on the clay this season, but she played very well in the First Round and she has performed strongly in Bastad over the last couple of seasons.

As long as the Swede can keep control of her emotions, I would expect her to come through 62, 64.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Ernests Gulbis - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Robin Haase + 3.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Johanna Larsson - 5.5 Games @ 2.01 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-3, + 1.44 Units (14 Units Staked, + 10.29% Yield)

Tennis Picks July 17th

At the time of writing, the rain has come down in Atlanta and that has left the second pick I made on Monday in a bit of limbo. I am continuing to have an eye on the Atlanta pictures while I am writing this thread, otherwise I will just update the profit/loss at the bottom of the page tomorrow (now been completed with a win for Gilles Muller).

I will also only be making picks from the three tournaments taking place in Europe at this time and I will come back tomorrow for any picks made from the two tournaments taking place in the United States.

I don't usually like making a lot of picks from any day as regular readers will know, but I have found a few underdogs that look like they may be worth chancing as well as some strong looking favourites.

Without much ado, it is on to the picks:


Pablo Andujar v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: This is a First Round battle between two Spanish players that will be very happy to be playing on the clay courts, but both will also be short of confidence after recent results.

This has been set as a pick 'em contest, but I do like Pablo Andujar's chances of winning his sixth match from seven tries against Albert Ramos-Vinolas.

Both players have been losing a lot of matches in recent weeks with Andujar losing seven of his last eight matches and Ramos losing five of his last six. The grass court season was never really going to sit well with either player, although Ramos can at least point to the fact that he had to play Roger Federer in the First Round at Wimbledon.

Andujar has actually won his last four matches against Ramos, the last three of those coming in straight sets including twice earlier this year on the clay courts. That makes it more surprising that he has been set as the underdog in this one as the form isn't much different between the players and the mental edge belongs to Andujar.


Lukas Rosol v Victor Troicki: Lukas Rosol may have played the best game of his life when he beat Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon a couple of weeks ago, but he has returned to his bread and better on the Tour in a bid to pick up more Ranking points and try and get into the top 100.

He meets Victor Troicki here in Hamburg and I do like Rosol's chances of securing a surprise victory considering how Troicki has played on this surface during this season and with a real chance that the Serb will be more concentrated on playing at the Olympic Games in a couple of weeks time.

It is a surprise to see Troicki out on the circuit this week considering he took an extended break after Wimbledon last season and I am not sure what he hopes to gain from this week. That 'lack of motivation' may give Rosol the edge considering these points are all vital in his bid to move up the Rankings.

These two have played two close matches this season with each picking up a win. Rosol's win came in a dead rubber in the Davis Cup, but that did come on a clay court and he may just pick up a surprise win here.


Dustin Brown v Sergiy Stakhovsky: This is more a pick against Sergiy Stakhovsky rather than backing Dustin Brown, but I do think the German qualifier may just have the edge and can take the win in yet another pick 'em contest.

Stakhovsky suffered an injury in his loss to Tommy Haas at the French Open and that has led to him retiring in two subsequent tournaments before exiting in the First Round last week in Stuttgart.

Brown did well to reach the Quarter Final last week in Stuttgart having won a couple of matches as the underdog before falling to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and he has already won three matches here to get into the main draw and all that should have him ready for the conditions and able to cause a slight surprise.

Unfortunately the two places with the best prices on Dustin Brown do not pay out in terms of a retirement, but I would be surprised if Stakhovsky does that having fallen in a three set match last week.


Anabel Medina Garrigues - 3.5 games v Laura Robson: There won't be too many regular readers of these picks or the recaps I have at the end of every week that are unaware of how high I am on the talent that Laura Robson possesses. However, I think this is a far tougher match for her than the layers like to think and I believe Anabel Medina Garrigues will be able to win the match fairly comfortably.

The Spanish player lost in the First Round while Robson went all the way to the Semi Final in Palermo last week, but I do think Medina Garrigues is one of the more solid clay courts players in this field in Bastad and may have a little too much know how and experience for the British number 3.

Robson can get hot in matches and that is the only concern I would have for this pick, but Medina Garrigues thrashed her for the loss of just three games at the French Open a couple of months ago and also comfortably saw off the challenge of Robson at the US Open last season.

I expect Medina Garrigues is going to continue to get enough balls back in play and hope that Robson's inconsistencies haunt her and it has been the unforced errors in the Robson game that has cost her the last two matches against this player.


Michael Russell - 3.5 games v Alex Kuznetsov: It isn't easy playing a compatriot at the best of times, but it must be extremely difficult when you have lost all 9 previous matches against an opponent.

That is the task facing Alex Kuznetsov today as he faces the veteran Michael Russell and I have a feeling it will be one loaded with too many mental questions and one he may not be able to pass.

Russell remains a solid 'gatekeeper' when it comes to tennis in the United States, although Kuznetsov will at least have familiarity on his side as he has won three qualifying matches to get to this stage.

The problem isn't just the fact that he has struggled against Russell in the past and failed to win, but the fact that he has lost the last 11 sets they have competed in and has won just ONE set in the nine previous matches.

Russell is obviously on the way down the hill, but I don't think he has fallen to a level where Kuznetsov will beat him and I can see a 6-3, 7-6 win for the veteran.


MY PICKS: Pablo Andujar @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Lukas Rosol @ 2.25 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Dustin Brown @ 1.92 Stan James (1 Unit)
Anabel Medina Garrigues - 3.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Michael Russell - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 1-1, + 0.90 Units (3 Units Staked)