I've just had a few things to do on Thursday which means I am not able to produce the full breakdowns of the Tennis Picks from the Quarter Final matches that are scheduled for Friday.
For this thread I will simply put the picks down below and I should be back with a proper thread for the Semi Final matches as long as I have any picks from those matches.
MY PICKS: Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-4, + 1.72 Units (18 Units Staked, + 9.56% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Bucharest. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bucharest. Show all posts
Friday, 21 July 2017
Tuesday, 18 July 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (July 18th)
There were quite a few matches scheduled for Monday at the five tournaments being played this week, but I didn't really find anything but the one angle with the Carla Suarez Navarro pick.
Thankfully that was an angle that provided a winner.
On Tuesday I do have a few more matches that have interested me with plenty of First Round matches remaining at the various tournaments. Hopefully it can be a day when I build off the success of Monday and get this week into a really positive position before we reach the halfway mark.
Jiri Vesely - 4.5 games v Norbert Gombos: He can be a hard player to trust having not quite reached the level expected of him, but Jiri Vesely is comfortable on the clay courts and shouldn't be intimidated by the level of competition he will face in Umag. It has been clear from his numbers that Vesely is considerably stronger when playing at the Challenger level compared with the full ATP during his career on this surface, but this tournament is not considerably stronger than a Challenger event.
The First Round match for Vesely against Norbert Gombos is certainly more in line with the level of opponent he would meet in a Challenger and I think the Czech player is going to be too good for Gombos. You have to respect the fact that Gombos has some solid numbers on the clay, but those have come against players Ranked far below Vesely and I do think that is a difference maker on the day.
The service points won and return points won numbers come down considerably for Gombos when he has taken on top 50 Ranked opponents during his career. Life has been much tougher when it comes to trying to hold onto his serve and this could be a big problem against Vesely.
That comes down to the fact that Vesely has served and returned much better when facing the weaker level of competition in the Challengers that he seems to dominate. Vesely's serve is a weapon on either Tour, but it is the return numbers which are significantly stronger and I expect he is going to be able to make that show up on Tuesday.
These two players haven't met since 2014, but I still think Vesely's 5-1 head to head lead, 4-1 on the clay is still relevant. While Gombos hasn't made a significant move onto the main Tour, Vesely has and has also continued to prove too strong when he drops his level of competition and I like the Czech player to earn a 6-3, 6-4 win in this one.
Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 games v Thiago Monteiro: It is never an easy decision to back a player who is coming off a long week where they have either reached the Final or won a tournament. Usually it will mean shortened travel time to the next tournament and can be difficult for a player, but Dusan Lajovic won't have the same excuses having won a Challenger event in Bastad a few days ago.
Now Lajovic enters the main tournament draw in Bastad looking to back up the success of last week and being accustomed to the conditions has to help. His best work has tended to come on the clay courts and he is favoured to beat Thiago Monteiro whose best clay court work has come in South America.
However Monteiro has to be respected having spent his life playing on clay and so feeling very good on the surface. The Brazilian hasn't been in the best of form of late though and I do worry that Monteiro doesn't play the return points well enough on the clay to be a threat to significantly improve his World Ranking.
That isn't to say Lajovic is the best returner out there, but he does tend to improve when playing the Challenger kind of level and his opponent is someone he would potentially see in those tournaments. The return numbers also improve when facing players Ranked outside the top 50 and I think that is important for Lajovic who can protect his serve a little better than Monteiro in this one.
Facing a lefty could present some early problems for Lajovic, and fatigue could be another potential issue for him. However I do think Monteiro's poor returning numbers could prove to be a difference in the match as Lajovic is able to work his way to a 6-4, 6-4 win.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Elias Ymer: His best days are behind him, but Fernando Verdasco should still have enough in the locker to beat home hope Elias Ymer who has yet to make the breakthrough at the highest level in his career. Ymer did reach the Quarter Final of the Bastad Challenger last week, but this is a significant step up in class for him even if Verdasco is not the player he once was.
The serve is not working as it did, but Verdasco has been returning as well as ever in his career in 2017 and I do think he is used to playing opponents who are stronger than the one he will face in the First Round here. You can see the decline in the service numbers, but Verdasco's returning ability should keep him in a strong position in this match.
The Spaniard will certainly feel that will be the case against a limited returner like Ymer, especially when he plays at the highest level of the ATP. And it is Verdasco's returning numbers that are likely to keep the young Swedish player under immense pressure for much of this match that is the reason I am going to look for Verdasco to cover this number.
Those return numbers become much stronger when facing players Ranked outside the top 100, although Verdasco was beaten by one such player in Budapest earlier in 2017. It will take a huge upset for Ymer to be able to follow that up with his own upset considering he is 1-11 against top 50 Ranked players in his career and is likely to be in tough spots throughout this match.
As long as Verdasco is focused, it feels like he is going to be too strong and is able to battle past Ymer with a 6-4, 6-2 kind of win.
Sorana Cirstea - 4.5 games v Ana Bogdan: Two Romanian players meet in the First Round at the WTA Bucharest and I do think the higher Ranked player will be able to make it through to the next Round. That player is Sorana Cirstea who has used her success at a lower level in 2016 to help propel her back up the World Rankings in 2017 as she is back on the regular WTA Tour.
Cirstea faces her compatriot Ana Bogdan who has yet to earn the consistent results to be playing on the WTA Tour on a regular basis. The best results tend to come on the clay though and that makes Bogdan a dangerous opponent for Cirstea having also beaten her last year at the US Open.
The return game is where Bogdan has struggled to make her impact and she is going to be faced with a decent Cirstea serve. It has also meant Bogdan is perhaps under a bit more pressure to protect her own serve when making less of an impact on return as she would have liked, and I am very much expecting Cirstea to have success in those games too.
The fear when backing Cirstea is her own inconsistencies which can see her drop a set by a wide margin of games which will make covering this number almost impossible. However, Cirstea has a solid 10-3 record on the clay when facing players Ranked outside the top 100 while being Ranked inside the top 100 herself, and Cirstea would have covered this margin of games eight times in those ten wins.
It feels like Bogdan may just struggle to stay with Cirstea over the course of the match and I am looking for the latter to fight her way to a 6-4, 6-3 win.
MY PICKS: Jiri Vesely - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-0, + 2 Units (2 Units Staked, + 100% Yield)
Thankfully that was an angle that provided a winner.
On Tuesday I do have a few more matches that have interested me with plenty of First Round matches remaining at the various tournaments. Hopefully it can be a day when I build off the success of Monday and get this week into a really positive position before we reach the halfway mark.
Jiri Vesely - 4.5 games v Norbert Gombos: He can be a hard player to trust having not quite reached the level expected of him, but Jiri Vesely is comfortable on the clay courts and shouldn't be intimidated by the level of competition he will face in Umag. It has been clear from his numbers that Vesely is considerably stronger when playing at the Challenger level compared with the full ATP during his career on this surface, but this tournament is not considerably stronger than a Challenger event.
The First Round match for Vesely against Norbert Gombos is certainly more in line with the level of opponent he would meet in a Challenger and I think the Czech player is going to be too good for Gombos. You have to respect the fact that Gombos has some solid numbers on the clay, but those have come against players Ranked far below Vesely and I do think that is a difference maker on the day.
The service points won and return points won numbers come down considerably for Gombos when he has taken on top 50 Ranked opponents during his career. Life has been much tougher when it comes to trying to hold onto his serve and this could be a big problem against Vesely.
That comes down to the fact that Vesely has served and returned much better when facing the weaker level of competition in the Challengers that he seems to dominate. Vesely's serve is a weapon on either Tour, but it is the return numbers which are significantly stronger and I expect he is going to be able to make that show up on Tuesday.
These two players haven't met since 2014, but I still think Vesely's 5-1 head to head lead, 4-1 on the clay is still relevant. While Gombos hasn't made a significant move onto the main Tour, Vesely has and has also continued to prove too strong when he drops his level of competition and I like the Czech player to earn a 6-3, 6-4 win in this one.
Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 games v Thiago Monteiro: It is never an easy decision to back a player who is coming off a long week where they have either reached the Final or won a tournament. Usually it will mean shortened travel time to the next tournament and can be difficult for a player, but Dusan Lajovic won't have the same excuses having won a Challenger event in Bastad a few days ago.
Now Lajovic enters the main tournament draw in Bastad looking to back up the success of last week and being accustomed to the conditions has to help. His best work has tended to come on the clay courts and he is favoured to beat Thiago Monteiro whose best clay court work has come in South America.
However Monteiro has to be respected having spent his life playing on clay and so feeling very good on the surface. The Brazilian hasn't been in the best of form of late though and I do worry that Monteiro doesn't play the return points well enough on the clay to be a threat to significantly improve his World Ranking.
That isn't to say Lajovic is the best returner out there, but he does tend to improve when playing the Challenger kind of level and his opponent is someone he would potentially see in those tournaments. The return numbers also improve when facing players Ranked outside the top 50 and I think that is important for Lajovic who can protect his serve a little better than Monteiro in this one.
Facing a lefty could present some early problems for Lajovic, and fatigue could be another potential issue for him. However I do think Monteiro's poor returning numbers could prove to be a difference in the match as Lajovic is able to work his way to a 6-4, 6-4 win.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Elias Ymer: His best days are behind him, but Fernando Verdasco should still have enough in the locker to beat home hope Elias Ymer who has yet to make the breakthrough at the highest level in his career. Ymer did reach the Quarter Final of the Bastad Challenger last week, but this is a significant step up in class for him even if Verdasco is not the player he once was.
The serve is not working as it did, but Verdasco has been returning as well as ever in his career in 2017 and I do think he is used to playing opponents who are stronger than the one he will face in the First Round here. You can see the decline in the service numbers, but Verdasco's returning ability should keep him in a strong position in this match.
The Spaniard will certainly feel that will be the case against a limited returner like Ymer, especially when he plays at the highest level of the ATP. And it is Verdasco's returning numbers that are likely to keep the young Swedish player under immense pressure for much of this match that is the reason I am going to look for Verdasco to cover this number.
Those return numbers become much stronger when facing players Ranked outside the top 100, although Verdasco was beaten by one such player in Budapest earlier in 2017. It will take a huge upset for Ymer to be able to follow that up with his own upset considering he is 1-11 against top 50 Ranked players in his career and is likely to be in tough spots throughout this match.
As long as Verdasco is focused, it feels like he is going to be too strong and is able to battle past Ymer with a 6-4, 6-2 kind of win.
Sorana Cirstea - 4.5 games v Ana Bogdan: Two Romanian players meet in the First Round at the WTA Bucharest and I do think the higher Ranked player will be able to make it through to the next Round. That player is Sorana Cirstea who has used her success at a lower level in 2016 to help propel her back up the World Rankings in 2017 as she is back on the regular WTA Tour.
Cirstea faces her compatriot Ana Bogdan who has yet to earn the consistent results to be playing on the WTA Tour on a regular basis. The best results tend to come on the clay though and that makes Bogdan a dangerous opponent for Cirstea having also beaten her last year at the US Open.
The return game is where Bogdan has struggled to make her impact and she is going to be faced with a decent Cirstea serve. It has also meant Bogdan is perhaps under a bit more pressure to protect her own serve when making less of an impact on return as she would have liked, and I am very much expecting Cirstea to have success in those games too.
The fear when backing Cirstea is her own inconsistencies which can see her drop a set by a wide margin of games which will make covering this number almost impossible. However, Cirstea has a solid 10-3 record on the clay when facing players Ranked outside the top 100 while being Ranked inside the top 100 herself, and Cirstea would have covered this margin of games eight times in those ten wins.
It feels like Bogdan may just struggle to stay with Cirstea over the course of the match and I am looking for the latter to fight her way to a 6-4, 6-3 win.
MY PICKS: Jiri Vesely - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-0, + 2 Units (2 Units Staked, + 100% Yield)
Monday, 17 July 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (July 17th)
2017 in general feels like it is has been rushing through and that is underlined by the Tennis Tour which has taken in three of the four Grand Slams.
Wimbledon 2017 came to a close on Sunday and I have to say it was not really a stand out tournament, although it will be a memorable one from a historical point of view. Roger Federer winning his eighth Wimbledon title, the first male player to do that in the history of the tournament, will be replayed for many years although it was the second of two disappointing Singles Finals we saw this weekend.
Garbine Muguruza was the other winner, but it may be a case of what may have been for Venus Williams who was leading 5-4 and earned two set points on the Spaniard's serve. Not for the first time over the last two weeks, Muguruza saved those to come out of the game and she went on to win the final NINE games of the Final to pick up a second Grand Slam crown.
I will admit the last time she won a Slam at the French Open last year, I thought Muguruza had all the tools to be a leading contender for every Slam following, but she didn't cope with the new expectations. With more experience we may see Muguruza kick on from the Wimbledon title, although the US Open looks to be another wide open draw on the women's side of the tournament.
It will be Roger Federer who goes into New York City as the favourite for the men's title with the likes of Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray both dealing with injuries which may leave them undercooked for a tilt at the title. Rafael Nadal is playing well enough to be a threat, but it does have to be said that the court conditions we usually see at Flushing Meadows will favour Federer more than the Spaniard and he will be the man to beat in that draw.
There are six weeks before the US Open begins on Monday 28th August and the Tour doesn't stop to gather a breath after the exertions of Wimbledon. While the big hard court events in North America will be played in August, preparation for the US Open will begin later this month in Atlanta and Washington.
This week it is a chance for the clay court loving players to enjoy some final tournaments on their favourite surface. The events in Bastad, Bucharest, Gstaad and Umag are clay events on the ATP and WTA side of the Tour, while the men will have a final grass court event which is held in Newport.
Wimbledon did prove to be a tough tournament for the tennis picks with that generally being the worst of my Grand Slam picks. The outright picks did at least bring in a profit, but the daily picks struggled and the grass court season in general was a poor one for my picks.
A bit better luck may have turned things in my favour, but I just have to take it for what it is and look for better over the remainder of the month to perhaps get into a stronger position.
Picks this week may come out a little inconsistently with the tournaments being played not exactly the strongest, but if anything does take my fancy I will be sure to put those picks down.
On Monday I have only had my eye on one pick coming from the WTA Bucharest First Round.
Carla Suarez Navarro - 5.5 games v Annika Beck: It can be difficult to trust Carla Suarez Navarro when asking the Spaniard to cover big numbers simply because her serve is one that can be attacked by opponents. The return game is where Annika Beck's strength is too, which makes this a difficult match for Suarez Navarro, although I do give the latter a big enough edge on the clay courts to be able to come through with a healthy margin of victory.
While you would say that Suarez Navarro has had a difficult time on the grass, she has at least been putting matches into the legs compared with Beck who has played just twice in the last eight weeks. Both of those matches ended in one-sided defeats for the German and Beck has lost six of her last seven matches on the Tour to slip down the World Rankings.
Suarez Navarro has had some solid runs on the clay courts, which is no surprise considering how much she enjoys the surface, but some defeats will have raised eyebrows over the clay season in 2017. Defeats to Lauren Davis and Coco Vandeweghe as a favourite were a surprise, but you can't ignore how well Suarez Navarro tends to play against players Ranked outside the top 50 when it comes to meeting them on the clay.
The Spaniard is 27-2 in that spot on the clay, and eighteen of those wins would have come by a margin to cover this number of games. The serve can be an issue for Suarez Navarro, but she has returned really effectively when facing the lower Ranked players on the Tour and I will be looking for that to show up in this match with Beck, whose own serve is very vulnerable.
Beck's own numbers do not look great when facing players inside the top 50 of the World Rankings and on the clay courts. I do think she will have her chances to break serve, but I am not sure she will do that enough to stay with Suarez Navarro who should earn at least four or five breaks in this one.
It is a big number, but I am looking for Suarez Navarro to perhaps move into the Second Round behind a 6-3, 6-2 kind of score.
MY PICKS: Carla Suarez Navarro - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Wimbledon 2017 came to a close on Sunday and I have to say it was not really a stand out tournament, although it will be a memorable one from a historical point of view. Roger Federer winning his eighth Wimbledon title, the first male player to do that in the history of the tournament, will be replayed for many years although it was the second of two disappointing Singles Finals we saw this weekend.
Garbine Muguruza was the other winner, but it may be a case of what may have been for Venus Williams who was leading 5-4 and earned two set points on the Spaniard's serve. Not for the first time over the last two weeks, Muguruza saved those to come out of the game and she went on to win the final NINE games of the Final to pick up a second Grand Slam crown.
I will admit the last time she won a Slam at the French Open last year, I thought Muguruza had all the tools to be a leading contender for every Slam following, but she didn't cope with the new expectations. With more experience we may see Muguruza kick on from the Wimbledon title, although the US Open looks to be another wide open draw on the women's side of the tournament.
It will be Roger Federer who goes into New York City as the favourite for the men's title with the likes of Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray both dealing with injuries which may leave them undercooked for a tilt at the title. Rafael Nadal is playing well enough to be a threat, but it does have to be said that the court conditions we usually see at Flushing Meadows will favour Federer more than the Spaniard and he will be the man to beat in that draw.
There are six weeks before the US Open begins on Monday 28th August and the Tour doesn't stop to gather a breath after the exertions of Wimbledon. While the big hard court events in North America will be played in August, preparation for the US Open will begin later this month in Atlanta and Washington.
This week it is a chance for the clay court loving players to enjoy some final tournaments on their favourite surface. The events in Bastad, Bucharest, Gstaad and Umag are clay events on the ATP and WTA side of the Tour, while the men will have a final grass court event which is held in Newport.
Wimbledon did prove to be a tough tournament for the tennis picks with that generally being the worst of my Grand Slam picks. The outright picks did at least bring in a profit, but the daily picks struggled and the grass court season in general was a poor one for my picks.
A bit better luck may have turned things in my favour, but I just have to take it for what it is and look for better over the remainder of the month to perhaps get into a stronger position.
Picks this week may come out a little inconsistently with the tournaments being played not exactly the strongest, but if anything does take my fancy I will be sure to put those picks down.
On Monday I have only had my eye on one pick coming from the WTA Bucharest First Round.
Carla Suarez Navarro - 5.5 games v Annika Beck: It can be difficult to trust Carla Suarez Navarro when asking the Spaniard to cover big numbers simply because her serve is one that can be attacked by opponents. The return game is where Annika Beck's strength is too, which makes this a difficult match for Suarez Navarro, although I do give the latter a big enough edge on the clay courts to be able to come through with a healthy margin of victory.
While you would say that Suarez Navarro has had a difficult time on the grass, she has at least been putting matches into the legs compared with Beck who has played just twice in the last eight weeks. Both of those matches ended in one-sided defeats for the German and Beck has lost six of her last seven matches on the Tour to slip down the World Rankings.
Suarez Navarro has had some solid runs on the clay courts, which is no surprise considering how much she enjoys the surface, but some defeats will have raised eyebrows over the clay season in 2017. Defeats to Lauren Davis and Coco Vandeweghe as a favourite were a surprise, but you can't ignore how well Suarez Navarro tends to play against players Ranked outside the top 50 when it comes to meeting them on the clay.
The Spaniard is 27-2 in that spot on the clay, and eighteen of those wins would have come by a margin to cover this number of games. The serve can be an issue for Suarez Navarro, but she has returned really effectively when facing the lower Ranked players on the Tour and I will be looking for that to show up in this match with Beck, whose own serve is very vulnerable.
Beck's own numbers do not look great when facing players inside the top 50 of the World Rankings and on the clay courts. I do think she will have her chances to break serve, but I am not sure she will do that enough to stay with Suarez Navarro who should earn at least four or five breaks in this one.
It is a big number, but I am looking for Suarez Navarro to perhaps move into the Second Round behind a 6-3, 6-2 kind of score.
MY PICKS: Carla Suarez Navarro - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Season 2017: - 33.74 Units (1430 Units Staked, - 2.36% Yield)
Season 2016: - 5.64 Units (2013 Units Staked, - 0.00% Yield)
Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Thursday, 14 July 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (July 14th)
I feel sorry for the tournament organisers in Gstaad with the rain over there severely affecting their event to the point that First Round matches haven't been completed going into Thursday. The schedule begins very early on Thursday to try and get through all of the remaining First Round matches as well as the whole Second Round, but the weather doesn't seem to want to 'play ball' with the organisers and it could be another frustrating day for the spectators.
I was feeling some sort of frustration while watching Nicolas Almagro somehow fail to cover in his match with Paul-Henri Mathieu. It was all Almagro right up until the final two games of the final set when Mathieu somehow came through to beat him and move into the Quarter Final at his expense.
Any one who has watched tennis for a considerable number of years would tell you that Mathieu has to be one those players who is never too far from a mental collapse, but he showed some hardened play when down break point for much of the match.
That might have been a really bother if the rest of the picks hadn't been successful on Wednesday, but fortunately I didn't have a total rubbish day and that has got the week moving in a very positive direction. Now I am hoping the remaining four days can also maintain that at the very least, if not build upon the first three days, as the tournaments begin to wind down and the Davis Cup Quarter Finals are played.
Gastao Elias v Taro Daniel: It won't be often that Gastao Elias and Taro Daniel will be playing for a place in an ATP Quarter Final while facing someone like they will be in this match. Both Elias and Daniel have to believe they can win the match and move on to the Quarter Final and the layers have set it as a pick 'em contest.
I am not sure that should be the case with Elias certainly looking the more comfortable on the clay courts.
The better form might have been coming from the Daniel racquet in recent weeks with a run to the Quarter Final of a Challenger event and beating Horacio Zeballos in the First Round who won a Challenger last week. However it is Elias who has won titles at that level compared with Daniel who has been a little more inconsistent on the clay and I think Elias is going to have a little more experience on the surface which can see him overcome this opponent.
I don't think there will be much between these players, but at the pick 'em prices, I think Elias will have a little too much on the big points and come through.
Sara Errani - 3.5 games v Francesca Schiavone: Two Italian veterans meet in the Second Round in Bucharest and both Sara Errani and Francesca Schiavone should be very aware of what the other is going to want to do on the court. They have a similar style with neither player possessing the greatest serve, but instead looking to grind down their opponent in long rallies and that is where I think Errani will have the edge at this point of their careers.
It doesn't surprise me that Errani has won the last two matches these two have played against one another in 2014 and 2015. However this has been a tough season for Errani and that has seen her slip down the World Rankings, while a big surprise has to be the fact that she had lost her last five matches on clay before winning in the First Round here.
On the other hand Schiavone did win a title on the clay in South America earlier this season to put a shine on her record on clay in 2016. She had actually lost four in a row on the surface before coming through the First Round here and I imagine this is going to be a match in which there are a number of breaks of serve.
I do feel that Errani has a little more in the tank than the 36 year old Schiavone and I think that comes out in this match the further along it goes. It will be a tough match for both players who are likely close off the court, but I think Errani comes through 64, 64.
Timea Bacsinszky - 5.5 games v Mandy Minella: Only four players have made it through to the Second Round in Gstaad thanks to the awful weather which has affected the event through the first four days. All of the Second Round matches have been scheduled for Thursday, with some players having to play twice on the same day, but at least Timea Bacsinszky and Mandy Minella won't be forced into that spot.
The extra time off for Minella might be a benefit for her to challenge the Number 1 Seed in this Second Round match. She has already come through the Qualifiers and then needed three tight sets to win in the First Round so physically she could be cheering for the rain to just provide a little more rest.
Minella will know there is going to be a lot of chasing she has to get through as Bacsinszky loves playing the drop shot but also has the consistency to extend rallies and wear down opponents. The Swiss player is definitely strong on the clay courts and Minella doesn't have the same performances under her belt on the clay.
I do think the extra consistency for Bacsinszky will be key on a surface where neither player is going to have a lot of free points off the serve. We may have to wait until Friday before these players actually get a chance to get on the court, but I like Bacsinszky showing her extra class and winning this match 63, 63.
Adrian Mannarino - 2.5 games v Sam Groth: World Rankings can quickly change in the tennis world, especially lower down the Rankings as Sam Groth would be the first to tell you. It is only back in August 2015 when Groth hit a career high Ranking, but he has steadily dropped over the last eleven months and is now outside of the top 100 once again.
There isn't much to say about Groth's game outside of having a huge serve which he likes to follow in with volleys. His return game is limited but the scoreboard pressure can tell, although I don't think Adrian Mannarino is really someone who is going to be that affected by playing from behind.
The bigger issue for Mannarino is making sure his serve is not as vulnerable as it can be- he won't want to be chasing this match by offering up break points, but Mannarino did dismiss Groth without too many problems at the Queens Club last month with a strong serving display.
Mannarino had a really difficult First Round win over James Duckworth, a match decided on three tie-breakers, but he didn't serve badly. Against a limited returner like Groth, Mannarino should have more success and I think he moves into the Quarter Final with a 76, 64 win thanks to having the day off on Wednesday to get himself physically ready for this Second Round match.
Gilles Muller - 4.5 games v Victor Estrella Burgos: Victor Estrella Burgos has already upset the odds once in this tournament to get into the Second Round, but it would take a huge upset for him to get past Gilles Muller on Thursday. There is no doubting that Estrella Burgos saves his best form for the clay courts and he is making his first appearance in Newport in his career.
The grass courts have not been that kind to Estrella Burgos who is just 3-7 in his last ten matches on the surface, and his serve can be vulnerable which is hard to recover on a surface like this one.
He will be put under pressure by Gilles Muller who is not the best returner on the Tour, but who can create problems for players by serving big and making opponents feel they are playing catch up. Muller had a disappointing Wimbledon but he did reach the Quarter Final, Semi Final and Final in three other grass court events where his serve is a potent weapon.
One concern for Muller backers has to be that he has never won a match at Newport before, but this is a real opportunity for him in a draw that doesn't look the most loaded. However he did see off Estrella Burgos comfortably enough in Indian Wells earlier this season and Muller's comfort on the grass courts can lead to a 64, 63 win in this one.
Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 games v Dudi Sela: I have to say I have been impressed with the wins that both Marcos Baghdatis and Dudi Sela have put together so far on their way through to the Quarter Final. Baghdatis has only had the one match in Newport, but dismissed Brian Baker without too many concerns, while Sela's straight set wins over Lukas Lacko and defending Champion Rajeev Ram has to be respected.
Now they meet for a place in the Semi Final at an open event and I think Baghdatis has more comfort on the grass which will help him past the Israeli.
I can't imagine it will be easy because Sela has plenty of talent in his racquet, although the serve remains a vulnerable part of his game. He will certainly put Baghdatis under pressure in the rallies and will have his chances to break the serve, but Sela will have to serve much better to keep the Cypriot at bay in this one.
Sela has experience playing in a couple of previous Quarter Finals in Newport, but he has fallen short in those outings and I think Baghdatis is the better grass court player. After a few breaks of serve for both players, I believe Baghdatis wins enough of the big points to come through 75, 64 in this one.
MY PICKS: Gastao Elias @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Timea Bacsinszky - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Adrian Mannarino - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-3, + 10.78 Units (24 Units Staked, + 44.92% Yield)
I was feeling some sort of frustration while watching Nicolas Almagro somehow fail to cover in his match with Paul-Henri Mathieu. It was all Almagro right up until the final two games of the final set when Mathieu somehow came through to beat him and move into the Quarter Final at his expense.
Any one who has watched tennis for a considerable number of years would tell you that Mathieu has to be one those players who is never too far from a mental collapse, but he showed some hardened play when down break point for much of the match.
That might have been a really bother if the rest of the picks hadn't been successful on Wednesday, but fortunately I didn't have a total rubbish day and that has got the week moving in a very positive direction. Now I am hoping the remaining four days can also maintain that at the very least, if not build upon the first three days, as the tournaments begin to wind down and the Davis Cup Quarter Finals are played.
Gastao Elias v Taro Daniel: It won't be often that Gastao Elias and Taro Daniel will be playing for a place in an ATP Quarter Final while facing someone like they will be in this match. Both Elias and Daniel have to believe they can win the match and move on to the Quarter Final and the layers have set it as a pick 'em contest.
I am not sure that should be the case with Elias certainly looking the more comfortable on the clay courts.
The better form might have been coming from the Daniel racquet in recent weeks with a run to the Quarter Final of a Challenger event and beating Horacio Zeballos in the First Round who won a Challenger last week. However it is Elias who has won titles at that level compared with Daniel who has been a little more inconsistent on the clay and I think Elias is going to have a little more experience on the surface which can see him overcome this opponent.
I don't think there will be much between these players, but at the pick 'em prices, I think Elias will have a little too much on the big points and come through.
Sara Errani - 3.5 games v Francesca Schiavone: Two Italian veterans meet in the Second Round in Bucharest and both Sara Errani and Francesca Schiavone should be very aware of what the other is going to want to do on the court. They have a similar style with neither player possessing the greatest serve, but instead looking to grind down their opponent in long rallies and that is where I think Errani will have the edge at this point of their careers.
It doesn't surprise me that Errani has won the last two matches these two have played against one another in 2014 and 2015. However this has been a tough season for Errani and that has seen her slip down the World Rankings, while a big surprise has to be the fact that she had lost her last five matches on clay before winning in the First Round here.
On the other hand Schiavone did win a title on the clay in South America earlier this season to put a shine on her record on clay in 2016. She had actually lost four in a row on the surface before coming through the First Round here and I imagine this is going to be a match in which there are a number of breaks of serve.
I do feel that Errani has a little more in the tank than the 36 year old Schiavone and I think that comes out in this match the further along it goes. It will be a tough match for both players who are likely close off the court, but I think Errani comes through 64, 64.
Timea Bacsinszky - 5.5 games v Mandy Minella: Only four players have made it through to the Second Round in Gstaad thanks to the awful weather which has affected the event through the first four days. All of the Second Round matches have been scheduled for Thursday, with some players having to play twice on the same day, but at least Timea Bacsinszky and Mandy Minella won't be forced into that spot.
The extra time off for Minella might be a benefit for her to challenge the Number 1 Seed in this Second Round match. She has already come through the Qualifiers and then needed three tight sets to win in the First Round so physically she could be cheering for the rain to just provide a little more rest.
Minella will know there is going to be a lot of chasing she has to get through as Bacsinszky loves playing the drop shot but also has the consistency to extend rallies and wear down opponents. The Swiss player is definitely strong on the clay courts and Minella doesn't have the same performances under her belt on the clay.
I do think the extra consistency for Bacsinszky will be key on a surface where neither player is going to have a lot of free points off the serve. We may have to wait until Friday before these players actually get a chance to get on the court, but I like Bacsinszky showing her extra class and winning this match 63, 63.
Adrian Mannarino - 2.5 games v Sam Groth: World Rankings can quickly change in the tennis world, especially lower down the Rankings as Sam Groth would be the first to tell you. It is only back in August 2015 when Groth hit a career high Ranking, but he has steadily dropped over the last eleven months and is now outside of the top 100 once again.
There isn't much to say about Groth's game outside of having a huge serve which he likes to follow in with volleys. His return game is limited but the scoreboard pressure can tell, although I don't think Adrian Mannarino is really someone who is going to be that affected by playing from behind.
The bigger issue for Mannarino is making sure his serve is not as vulnerable as it can be- he won't want to be chasing this match by offering up break points, but Mannarino did dismiss Groth without too many problems at the Queens Club last month with a strong serving display.
Mannarino had a really difficult First Round win over James Duckworth, a match decided on three tie-breakers, but he didn't serve badly. Against a limited returner like Groth, Mannarino should have more success and I think he moves into the Quarter Final with a 76, 64 win thanks to having the day off on Wednesday to get himself physically ready for this Second Round match.
Gilles Muller - 4.5 games v Victor Estrella Burgos: Victor Estrella Burgos has already upset the odds once in this tournament to get into the Second Round, but it would take a huge upset for him to get past Gilles Muller on Thursday. There is no doubting that Estrella Burgos saves his best form for the clay courts and he is making his first appearance in Newport in his career.
The grass courts have not been that kind to Estrella Burgos who is just 3-7 in his last ten matches on the surface, and his serve can be vulnerable which is hard to recover on a surface like this one.
He will be put under pressure by Gilles Muller who is not the best returner on the Tour, but who can create problems for players by serving big and making opponents feel they are playing catch up. Muller had a disappointing Wimbledon but he did reach the Quarter Final, Semi Final and Final in three other grass court events where his serve is a potent weapon.
One concern for Muller backers has to be that he has never won a match at Newport before, but this is a real opportunity for him in a draw that doesn't look the most loaded. However he did see off Estrella Burgos comfortably enough in Indian Wells earlier this season and Muller's comfort on the grass courts can lead to a 64, 63 win in this one.
Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 games v Dudi Sela: I have to say I have been impressed with the wins that both Marcos Baghdatis and Dudi Sela have put together so far on their way through to the Quarter Final. Baghdatis has only had the one match in Newport, but dismissed Brian Baker without too many concerns, while Sela's straight set wins over Lukas Lacko and defending Champion Rajeev Ram has to be respected.
Now they meet for a place in the Semi Final at an open event and I think Baghdatis has more comfort on the grass which will help him past the Israeli.
I can't imagine it will be easy because Sela has plenty of talent in his racquet, although the serve remains a vulnerable part of his game. He will certainly put Baghdatis under pressure in the rallies and will have his chances to break the serve, but Sela will have to serve much better to keep the Cypriot at bay in this one.
Sela has experience playing in a couple of previous Quarter Finals in Newport, but he has fallen short in those outings and I think Baghdatis is the better grass court player. After a few breaks of serve for both players, I believe Baghdatis wins enough of the big points to come through 75, 64 in this one.
MY PICKS: Gastao Elias @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Timea Bacsinszky - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Adrian Mannarino - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-3, + 10.78 Units (24 Units Staked, + 44.92% Yield)
Monday, 11 July 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (July 11th)
This is an Olympic season for the tennis Tour which means the week after Wimbledon has not been reserved for one last grass court event on the ATP Tour and then the Davis Cup Quarter Finals. While those two events are still taking place, this is also a busy week on the Tour with events in Hamburg and Bastad on the ATP Tour and in Bucharest and Gstaad on the WTA Tour.
It will also be a slightly different run up to the US Open with the Canadian Masters event being played in July before some of the players make a trip to Rio for the Olympic Games. The Cincinnati Masters will then be played in August as usual before the final Grand Slam of the season begins in New York.
Wimbledon was an interesting tournament with a couple of really good quality and exciting matches and the two winners, Serena Williams and Andy Murray, were deserving of their prizes. Both players had reached the Final of the previous two Grand Slam events and fallen short so both would have been glad to have got over the line.
For Serena Williams the target has now shifted to overtaking Margaret Court's 24 Grand Slams, while Andy Murray might just have cemented himself as the best British player of all time with his third Slam and second title at Wimbledon. I like Murray and I think he will be appreciated even more once he concludes his career and the huge vacuum his absence will leave on British tennis, but I am not sure I buy the suggestions he should be Knighted.
I know earning that recognition has become a little less exclusive than it used to be, but I don't think sportsmen or women should be able to earn that for being successful alone and certainly not at 29 years old. That might just be me though, but I was never behind the 'Sir David Beckham' suggestions a couple of years ago and I am not convinced 'Sir Andy Murray' should be opening Wimbledon next season either.
Usually the week after Wimbledon is something of a relaxed one for the tennis picks simply because there aren't any matches being played. However that has changed this week and I should have a few picks over the course of the tournaments being played as long as they are matches that I feel I have a decent read of.
Last week was a strong one for the picks from Wimbledon, but the reason remains a disappointing one to this point with less than half the year to go.
Vania King - 3.5 games v Paula Kania: A year of injury issues dropped Vania King outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings, but she could see an improvement in that Ranking over the coming weeks. It is important that the American starts putting some wins together in main Tour events she is playing in and she is in a decent portion of the draw in Bucharest which could see a run to the Semi Final if King can win this match.
She won't want to look too far into the week and the draw ahead as King gets set to face Paula Kania for the second time this season. The first match was also on the clay courts and King only dropped one game in that one, but this is going to be a lot closer or so you would imagine.
That match was Kania's first on the clay courts this season, but her record over the last three years on this surface is only 11-19. A lot of her defeats have come in straight-forward fashion in that time, but she does have more to her game than what she showed in the earlier defeat to King.
One issue that might be a problem for Kania to solve is the defensive work King gets through around the court. That can help her extract errors from the Kania game, although it is hard to imagine King not having some issues holding serve which is a weak part of her own game. King dominated behind her first serve when they played each other in Prague, but I think Kania can help make this closer by getting more joy in the return games, although ultimately I am backing the American to come through with a 64, 64 win.
Dudi Sela v Lukas Lacko: Wimbledon might have drawn to a close on Sunday, but that doesn't mean the end of the grass court season. For a long time now, Newport has been played the week after the Wimbledon Final and remains the last stop for grass on the Tour.
That isn't to say a deep field attends and this is a tournament that has been won by some less familiar names in recent years. Rajeev Ram is the defending Champion and has won the title here twice, while John Isner is another multiple time winner.
A chance to pick up some important Ranking points make this is an important match for Dudi Sela and Lukas Lacko and the winner might feel they can perhaps have a surprising run. When the draw was made, Sela began as a slight underdog, but I think the markets are beginning to adjust correctly as I like the Israeli to win this First Round match and he is now going into it as the favourite.
Sela might have had a very early defeat at Wimbledon, but he did win three matches on the grass in Nottingham. His serve is vulnerable which makes it tough for him on a surface where one break can lose you a set, but Sela has a strong record against Lacko including beating him on a grass court last season.
It was a good run for Lacko at Wimbledon where he reached the Third Round after coming through the Qualifiers, but he hasn't had a lot of success in main Tour matches on this surface. 2016 in general has been disappointing for Lacko who throws in poor service games too often and that has resulted in him struggling to get back inside the top 100 of the World Rankings.
This match might come down to which of the players is able to overcome difficulties on serve the best in the games where they face break points. However you have to think Sela holds the mental edge which can help in those moments when the big points will be contested and I will back him to move through to the Second Round.
MY PICKS: Vania King - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dudi Sela @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
It will also be a slightly different run up to the US Open with the Canadian Masters event being played in July before some of the players make a trip to Rio for the Olympic Games. The Cincinnati Masters will then be played in August as usual before the final Grand Slam of the season begins in New York.
Wimbledon was an interesting tournament with a couple of really good quality and exciting matches and the two winners, Serena Williams and Andy Murray, were deserving of their prizes. Both players had reached the Final of the previous two Grand Slam events and fallen short so both would have been glad to have got over the line.
For Serena Williams the target has now shifted to overtaking Margaret Court's 24 Grand Slams, while Andy Murray might just have cemented himself as the best British player of all time with his third Slam and second title at Wimbledon. I like Murray and I think he will be appreciated even more once he concludes his career and the huge vacuum his absence will leave on British tennis, but I am not sure I buy the suggestions he should be Knighted.
I know earning that recognition has become a little less exclusive than it used to be, but I don't think sportsmen or women should be able to earn that for being successful alone and certainly not at 29 years old. That might just be me though, but I was never behind the 'Sir David Beckham' suggestions a couple of years ago and I am not convinced 'Sir Andy Murray' should be opening Wimbledon next season either.
Usually the week after Wimbledon is something of a relaxed one for the tennis picks simply because there aren't any matches being played. However that has changed this week and I should have a few picks over the course of the tournaments being played as long as they are matches that I feel I have a decent read of.
Last week was a strong one for the picks from Wimbledon, but the reason remains a disappointing one to this point with less than half the year to go.
Vania King - 3.5 games v Paula Kania: A year of injury issues dropped Vania King outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings, but she could see an improvement in that Ranking over the coming weeks. It is important that the American starts putting some wins together in main Tour events she is playing in and she is in a decent portion of the draw in Bucharest which could see a run to the Semi Final if King can win this match.
She won't want to look too far into the week and the draw ahead as King gets set to face Paula Kania for the second time this season. The first match was also on the clay courts and King only dropped one game in that one, but this is going to be a lot closer or so you would imagine.
That match was Kania's first on the clay courts this season, but her record over the last three years on this surface is only 11-19. A lot of her defeats have come in straight-forward fashion in that time, but she does have more to her game than what she showed in the earlier defeat to King.
One issue that might be a problem for Kania to solve is the defensive work King gets through around the court. That can help her extract errors from the Kania game, although it is hard to imagine King not having some issues holding serve which is a weak part of her own game. King dominated behind her first serve when they played each other in Prague, but I think Kania can help make this closer by getting more joy in the return games, although ultimately I am backing the American to come through with a 64, 64 win.
Dudi Sela v Lukas Lacko: Wimbledon might have drawn to a close on Sunday, but that doesn't mean the end of the grass court season. For a long time now, Newport has been played the week after the Wimbledon Final and remains the last stop for grass on the Tour.
That isn't to say a deep field attends and this is a tournament that has been won by some less familiar names in recent years. Rajeev Ram is the defending Champion and has won the title here twice, while John Isner is another multiple time winner.
A chance to pick up some important Ranking points make this is an important match for Dudi Sela and Lukas Lacko and the winner might feel they can perhaps have a surprising run. When the draw was made, Sela began as a slight underdog, but I think the markets are beginning to adjust correctly as I like the Israeli to win this First Round match and he is now going into it as the favourite.
Sela might have had a very early defeat at Wimbledon, but he did win three matches on the grass in Nottingham. His serve is vulnerable which makes it tough for him on a surface where one break can lose you a set, but Sela has a strong record against Lacko including beating him on a grass court last season.
It was a good run for Lacko at Wimbledon where he reached the Third Round after coming through the Qualifiers, but he hasn't had a lot of success in main Tour matches on this surface. 2016 in general has been disappointing for Lacko who throws in poor service games too often and that has resulted in him struggling to get back inside the top 100 of the World Rankings.
This match might come down to which of the players is able to overcome difficulties on serve the best in the games where they face break points. However you have to think Sela holds the mental edge which can help in those moments when the big points will be contested and I will back him to move through to the Second Round.
MY PICKS: Vania King - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dudi Sela @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Season 2016: - 35.10 Units (1035 Units Staked, - 3.39% Yield)
Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Saturday, 23 April 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (April 23rd)
I couldn't really have asked for much more from the tennis picks on Friday than what I got- there were five picks made, and all five came in as winners.
That has put the week in a position to recover from the poor Monte Carlo tournament, but there are still a couple of days to go to wind up the week.
On Saturday it is the Semi Finals being played in the four tournaments that have been going on this week and I am looking to kick on from Friday to underline the successful week.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Laura Siegemund: This has been a very good week for Laura Siegemund who is playing in one of the home tournaments she is able to compete at. Siegemund has come through three Qualifiers and three main draw matches and has beaten the likes of Simona Halep and Roberta Vinci without dropping a set this week.
The German will look for another big scalp in this Semi Final and will have to be at her best to see off Agnieszka Radwanska who had an impressive win on Friday herself. Radwanska's was the last match on court so it was important for her to get through in straight sets and she will look to bamboozle Siegemund who only won one game in her only other appearance here.
I will admit that I am not always a fan of backing someone like Radwanska to cover a big spread like this one because of her serve being a weakness and thus easier to break. However she has the return game and movement around the court to force mistakes from Siegemund although the latter will feel she has gotten used to that style with the way she beat Halep and Vinci already this week.
I do think Radwanska is in the best form of those three players mentioned so Siegemund will have to be even better and I think it is the former who will win enough of the big points to come through 75, 63.
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 games v Lucas Pouille: This has been the second successful week Federico Delbonis is having on a European clay court and that will bode well for him in the coming weeks. It will give Delbonis every chance to improve his World Ranking and the Argentinian will be looking for another title having won in Casablanca a couple of weeks ago.
This looks a Semi Final he can win against the Frenchman Lucas Pouille who has had a successful week already. His win over Paolo Lorenzi might have taken something out of the tank though as Pouille as he had to come back from a set down to win in three tight sets.
While that was an impressive win from behind, Pouille will also know he will have to be better if he is going to compete with Delbonis who has been dismissing many an opponent on this surface over the last three weeks. The lefty has a decent serve which sets up his play and he has also been returning effectively and creating plenty of break points which makes him a dangerous opponent.
I think it won't be an easy match for Delbonis, but I do think he is the better player and can come through with an impressive 64, 64 win and a place in the Final on Sunday.
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: A battle between two Spaniards will determine the second Finalist in Bucharest and it is Fernando Verdasco who has dominated the head to head. Verdasco leads Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 6-3 on the head to head, but it was the latter who won their most recent match last season and he is considerably higher in the World Rankings.
Even with that in mind, I think the Garcia-Lopez serve is one that doesn't particularly have a lot of bite and it is a shot that Verdasco should be able to have some success against. While Garcia-Lopez has had success on the surface, I do think Verdasco is capable of having a number of break points in this one if he continues on the positive trend he has shown so far this week.
The win over Robin Haase was the kind of match that Verdasco has lost too often, but he battled through the first set after giving up his break of serve before looking after serve in the second set and breaking late to take the match. Those are the kinds of wins that will help Verdasco get back up the World Rankings and I do think his performances this week suggests he will have a little too much for Garcia-Lopez.
Verdasco has to stay focused when serving to not give Garcia-Lopez any encouragement and that focus should help him come through with a 76, 64 win in this one.
Benoit Paire + 4.5 games v Kei Nishikori: Benoit Paire is not someone I would be wanting to back as a favourite too often these days, but he looks to be getting plenty of games in this one against Kei Nishikori. The last two times these players have met has seen Paire come out victorious both times and the eye test suggests this is too many games being asked of the higher Ranked player to overcome.
That is not to say that Paire isn't capable of throwing in an absolute stinker of a match and being beaten 2 and 2 in this one. However he seems to enjoy the match up with Nishikori and this is a player that has performed well on the clay courts of Monte Carlo and here in Barcelona.
Nishikori is a former winner here so deserves all the respect he is being given while he is yet to drop a set this week. However he did have to save four set points against Alexandr Dolgopolov on Friday which may have turned that match completely, and Nishikori will have to be at his best to beat Paire in this Semi Final.
I will say it is hard to back Paire with a lot of confidence, but he will be a tough out for Nishikori if he is serving well and I will back him to cover with this number of games behind him, although I am not so convinced he wins the match.
MY PICKS: Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Benoit Paire + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 10-4, + 9.34 Units (28 Units Staked, + 33.36% Yield)
That has put the week in a position to recover from the poor Monte Carlo tournament, but there are still a couple of days to go to wind up the week.
On Saturday it is the Semi Finals being played in the four tournaments that have been going on this week and I am looking to kick on from Friday to underline the successful week.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Laura Siegemund: This has been a very good week for Laura Siegemund who is playing in one of the home tournaments she is able to compete at. Siegemund has come through three Qualifiers and three main draw matches and has beaten the likes of Simona Halep and Roberta Vinci without dropping a set this week.
The German will look for another big scalp in this Semi Final and will have to be at her best to see off Agnieszka Radwanska who had an impressive win on Friday herself. Radwanska's was the last match on court so it was important for her to get through in straight sets and she will look to bamboozle Siegemund who only won one game in her only other appearance here.
I will admit that I am not always a fan of backing someone like Radwanska to cover a big spread like this one because of her serve being a weakness and thus easier to break. However she has the return game and movement around the court to force mistakes from Siegemund although the latter will feel she has gotten used to that style with the way she beat Halep and Vinci already this week.
I do think Radwanska is in the best form of those three players mentioned so Siegemund will have to be even better and I think it is the former who will win enough of the big points to come through 75, 63.
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 games v Lucas Pouille: This has been the second successful week Federico Delbonis is having on a European clay court and that will bode well for him in the coming weeks. It will give Delbonis every chance to improve his World Ranking and the Argentinian will be looking for another title having won in Casablanca a couple of weeks ago.
This looks a Semi Final he can win against the Frenchman Lucas Pouille who has had a successful week already. His win over Paolo Lorenzi might have taken something out of the tank though as Pouille as he had to come back from a set down to win in three tight sets.
While that was an impressive win from behind, Pouille will also know he will have to be better if he is going to compete with Delbonis who has been dismissing many an opponent on this surface over the last three weeks. The lefty has a decent serve which sets up his play and he has also been returning effectively and creating plenty of break points which makes him a dangerous opponent.
I think it won't be an easy match for Delbonis, but I do think he is the better player and can come through with an impressive 64, 64 win and a place in the Final on Sunday.
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: A battle between two Spaniards will determine the second Finalist in Bucharest and it is Fernando Verdasco who has dominated the head to head. Verdasco leads Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 6-3 on the head to head, but it was the latter who won their most recent match last season and he is considerably higher in the World Rankings.
Even with that in mind, I think the Garcia-Lopez serve is one that doesn't particularly have a lot of bite and it is a shot that Verdasco should be able to have some success against. While Garcia-Lopez has had success on the surface, I do think Verdasco is capable of having a number of break points in this one if he continues on the positive trend he has shown so far this week.
The win over Robin Haase was the kind of match that Verdasco has lost too often, but he battled through the first set after giving up his break of serve before looking after serve in the second set and breaking late to take the match. Those are the kinds of wins that will help Verdasco get back up the World Rankings and I do think his performances this week suggests he will have a little too much for Garcia-Lopez.
Verdasco has to stay focused when serving to not give Garcia-Lopez any encouragement and that focus should help him come through with a 76, 64 win in this one.
Benoit Paire + 4.5 games v Kei Nishikori: Benoit Paire is not someone I would be wanting to back as a favourite too often these days, but he looks to be getting plenty of games in this one against Kei Nishikori. The last two times these players have met has seen Paire come out victorious both times and the eye test suggests this is too many games being asked of the higher Ranked player to overcome.
That is not to say that Paire isn't capable of throwing in an absolute stinker of a match and being beaten 2 and 2 in this one. However he seems to enjoy the match up with Nishikori and this is a player that has performed well on the clay courts of Monte Carlo and here in Barcelona.
Nishikori is a former winner here so deserves all the respect he is being given while he is yet to drop a set this week. However he did have to save four set points against Alexandr Dolgopolov on Friday which may have turned that match completely, and Nishikori will have to be at his best to beat Paire in this Semi Final.
I will say it is hard to back Paire with a lot of confidence, but he will be a tough out for Nishikori if he is serving well and I will back him to cover with this number of games behind him, although I am not so convinced he wins the match.
MY PICKS: Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Benoit Paire + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 10-4, + 9.34 Units (28 Units Staked, + 33.36% Yield)
Thursday, 21 April 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (April 22nd)
The tournaments in Barcelona, Bucharest, Istanbul and Stuttgart have all reached the Quarter Finals on Friday and there are plenty of matches that will be played through the day.
A solid Thursday from Bucharest has turned this week back into a positive, but there is still some work to do to make sure this is a successful week for the picks. Friday's Quarter Finals are interesting and I will have four picks from the matches to be played in Bucharest and Barcelona.
Federico Delbonis - 4.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: This has already been a good week for Marco Cecchinato who has moved into the Quarter Final by winning back to back matches without dropping a set. He has not always produced his best at this level and there is no doubting the level has picked up when the Italian meets Federico Delbonis in the Quarter Final.
Delbonis didn't have the best time in Monte Carlo where he was beaten in his first match, but he has won a title in Casablanca and is at his best on the clay courts. His win over Illya Marchenko in the Second Round was expected, but Delbonis made it a much easier match than most would have imagined and that should mean the confidence is flowing through him.
He will have to be returning well with Cecchinato getting more out of his first serve than I thought he would in the last match against Damir Dzumhur. However this is a better returner he is facing and Delbonis is also a lefty which can be troubling for players to face when they are not quite sure where to attack those players.
Dzumhur did earn plenty of break points which will encourage Delbonis in this Quarter Final and I do think the Argentinian player is the better one on the clay courts. He can be let down by his serve at times, but the first serve should be a bigger weapon than the one Cecchinato brings onto the court and I like Delbonis to work his way to a 64, 63 win.
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Robin Haase: It is Robin Haase that has won three of the four matches against Fernando Verdasco but I think the latter has looked good this week and can get the better of the Dutchman in this one.
This is one of those matches where I am surprised when having a quick look at the World Rankings- I have no idea how Robin Haase is above Fernando Verdasco in the Rankings if I am being perfectly honest.
The clay courts are considered Haase's favourite surface, but he has had a difficult time on these courts as much as others in recent seasons. He was dismissed in ridiculously one sided fashion by Damir Dzumhur in Monte Carlo and Haase is going to have to be at his best to take on Verdasco who is playing quite well as he looks to turn around the negative trend in his own World Ranking.
Haase can produce some very strong tennis as he showed in beating the Number 1 Seeded Bernard Tomic, but he is so inconsistent. The serve has to be working and you will be able to see from early on whether Haase is in the mood for a fight on Friday, but ultimately I don't think it will be enough for him to beat Verdasco yet again.
If Verdasco can just hang with him in the early moments of this match, I think he will be able to come through with a 64, 64 win and a place in the Semi Final.
Fabio Fognini + 5.5 games v Rafael Nadal: Winning the Monte Carlo Masters, a tournament that had all of the top names in action, has to be a big boost for Rafael Nadal as he tries to reclaim his place at the top of men's tennis. Backing up that win by winning in Barcelona will have many believing he can win another French Open next month, but Nadal looks to be too big a favourite in this one.
Recent matches with Fabio Fognini have been far from easy for Nadal and the Italian has been in decent nick after dropping the first set to Mikhail Youzhny. Since dropping that set, Fognini has won all four sets he has played and has dropped just six games which suggests he is over the injury that saw him miss both Indian Wells and Miami.
Fognini also lost heavily to Paolo Lorenzi in Monte Carlo, but the wins this week will have given him some confidence. The Italian also seems to love playing Nadal in recent matches and he did beat him twice on the clay last season, although Fognini was beaten in another match.
There is no doubt that Fognini can be hard to trust at times when he loses focus and clearly starts tanking games and sets, but I think he relishes playing Nadal. That should fuel his motivation and this looks a lot of games for Fognini to be receiving in this one and I will back him to keep the match competitive, although I expect Nadal to find his way to the Semi Final.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: Having already beaten Andrey Kuznetsov in two previous matches in Barcelona, I am looking for Philipp Kohlschreiber to make it a hat-trick in the final Quarter Final of the day. The German should still be the better clay court player of the two even if he looks to be slipping a little these days and I like Kohlschreiber's chances of moving into the Semi Final.
Both players have had impressive wins this week, but my feeling is that Kohlschreiber has definitely had the tougher tests that he has dealt with. As much as I have to respect Kuznetsov for beating the likes of Stan Wawrinka this season, the Russian is a player that has yet to really have a lot of success on the clay courts at this level.
Without the pace in the court, I think Kuznetsov is more susceptible to making a few errors while his serve is not the biggest on the Tour and can be attacked on the clay. Someone like Kohlschreiber should be able to have success on the return and he will be tough to knock off if he is serving well which is a shot that is a little more erratic these days.
Even so, Kohlschreiber's best moments in the last couple of years have come on the clay courts and I think he will be able to fashion more of the break point chances. After a tight first set I can see Kohlschreiber work through for a 76, 64 win in this one.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: There are some players on the Tour that can bamboozle opponents and I have a feeling Agnieszka Radwanska's dominance of Karolina Pliskova could be one such case.
You would think the Pliskova serve and added power would be enough to take Radwanska out of her comfort zone, but it does seem the latter is able to make enough balls back in play to frustrate Pliskova. That leads to errors and has also led to Radwanska winning all five previous matches with the last four being very comfortable.
In fact Radwanska is yet to lose a set to Pliskova and I think the clay courts will favour her game over Pliskova who would like to shorten the points and play first strike tennis. On the clay courts I expect Radwanska will force Pliskova to play too many balls and should be able to get the better of her in this one.
She would have covered this number of games in the last four matches against Pliskova and having a match on the clay under her belt should aid Radwanska. I think she is the better player on this surface anyway and Pliskova trying to get over the mental hurdle of facing this opponent may be too difficult and I think Radwanska can come through with a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Federico Delbonis - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini + 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-4, + 0.32 Units (18 Units Staked, + 1.78% Yield)
A solid Thursday from Bucharest has turned this week back into a positive, but there is still some work to do to make sure this is a successful week for the picks. Friday's Quarter Finals are interesting and I will have four picks from the matches to be played in Bucharest and Barcelona.
Federico Delbonis - 4.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: This has already been a good week for Marco Cecchinato who has moved into the Quarter Final by winning back to back matches without dropping a set. He has not always produced his best at this level and there is no doubting the level has picked up when the Italian meets Federico Delbonis in the Quarter Final.
Delbonis didn't have the best time in Monte Carlo where he was beaten in his first match, but he has won a title in Casablanca and is at his best on the clay courts. His win over Illya Marchenko in the Second Round was expected, but Delbonis made it a much easier match than most would have imagined and that should mean the confidence is flowing through him.
He will have to be returning well with Cecchinato getting more out of his first serve than I thought he would in the last match against Damir Dzumhur. However this is a better returner he is facing and Delbonis is also a lefty which can be troubling for players to face when they are not quite sure where to attack those players.
Dzumhur did earn plenty of break points which will encourage Delbonis in this Quarter Final and I do think the Argentinian player is the better one on the clay courts. He can be let down by his serve at times, but the first serve should be a bigger weapon than the one Cecchinato brings onto the court and I like Delbonis to work his way to a 64, 63 win.
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Robin Haase: It is Robin Haase that has won three of the four matches against Fernando Verdasco but I think the latter has looked good this week and can get the better of the Dutchman in this one.
This is one of those matches where I am surprised when having a quick look at the World Rankings- I have no idea how Robin Haase is above Fernando Verdasco in the Rankings if I am being perfectly honest.
The clay courts are considered Haase's favourite surface, but he has had a difficult time on these courts as much as others in recent seasons. He was dismissed in ridiculously one sided fashion by Damir Dzumhur in Monte Carlo and Haase is going to have to be at his best to take on Verdasco who is playing quite well as he looks to turn around the negative trend in his own World Ranking.
Haase can produce some very strong tennis as he showed in beating the Number 1 Seeded Bernard Tomic, but he is so inconsistent. The serve has to be working and you will be able to see from early on whether Haase is in the mood for a fight on Friday, but ultimately I don't think it will be enough for him to beat Verdasco yet again.
If Verdasco can just hang with him in the early moments of this match, I think he will be able to come through with a 64, 64 win and a place in the Semi Final.
Fabio Fognini + 5.5 games v Rafael Nadal: Winning the Monte Carlo Masters, a tournament that had all of the top names in action, has to be a big boost for Rafael Nadal as he tries to reclaim his place at the top of men's tennis. Backing up that win by winning in Barcelona will have many believing he can win another French Open next month, but Nadal looks to be too big a favourite in this one.
Recent matches with Fabio Fognini have been far from easy for Nadal and the Italian has been in decent nick after dropping the first set to Mikhail Youzhny. Since dropping that set, Fognini has won all four sets he has played and has dropped just six games which suggests he is over the injury that saw him miss both Indian Wells and Miami.
Fognini also lost heavily to Paolo Lorenzi in Monte Carlo, but the wins this week will have given him some confidence. The Italian also seems to love playing Nadal in recent matches and he did beat him twice on the clay last season, although Fognini was beaten in another match.
There is no doubt that Fognini can be hard to trust at times when he loses focus and clearly starts tanking games and sets, but I think he relishes playing Nadal. That should fuel his motivation and this looks a lot of games for Fognini to be receiving in this one and I will back him to keep the match competitive, although I expect Nadal to find his way to the Semi Final.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: Having already beaten Andrey Kuznetsov in two previous matches in Barcelona, I am looking for Philipp Kohlschreiber to make it a hat-trick in the final Quarter Final of the day. The German should still be the better clay court player of the two even if he looks to be slipping a little these days and I like Kohlschreiber's chances of moving into the Semi Final.
Both players have had impressive wins this week, but my feeling is that Kohlschreiber has definitely had the tougher tests that he has dealt with. As much as I have to respect Kuznetsov for beating the likes of Stan Wawrinka this season, the Russian is a player that has yet to really have a lot of success on the clay courts at this level.
Without the pace in the court, I think Kuznetsov is more susceptible to making a few errors while his serve is not the biggest on the Tour and can be attacked on the clay. Someone like Kohlschreiber should be able to have success on the return and he will be tough to knock off if he is serving well which is a shot that is a little more erratic these days.
Even so, Kohlschreiber's best moments in the last couple of years have come on the clay courts and I think he will be able to fashion more of the break point chances. After a tight first set I can see Kohlschreiber work through for a 76, 64 win in this one.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: There are some players on the Tour that can bamboozle opponents and I have a feeling Agnieszka Radwanska's dominance of Karolina Pliskova could be one such case.
You would think the Pliskova serve and added power would be enough to take Radwanska out of her comfort zone, but it does seem the latter is able to make enough balls back in play to frustrate Pliskova. That leads to errors and has also led to Radwanska winning all five previous matches with the last four being very comfortable.
In fact Radwanska is yet to lose a set to Pliskova and I think the clay courts will favour her game over Pliskova who would like to shorten the points and play first strike tennis. On the clay courts I expect Radwanska will force Pliskova to play too many balls and should be able to get the better of her in this one.
She would have covered this number of games in the last four matches against Pliskova and having a match on the clay under her belt should aid Radwanska. I think she is the better player on this surface anyway and Pliskova trying to get over the mental hurdle of facing this opponent may be too difficult and I think Radwanska can come through with a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Federico Delbonis - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini + 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-4, + 0.32 Units (18 Units Staked, + 1.78% Yield)
Wednesday, 20 April 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (April 21st)
It was a tough day for the picks on Wednesday as two players failed to make the cover in final set deciders with one winning outright and the other going down to a narrow loss.
Thankfully Angelique Kerber came back from a set down to beat Annika Beck with enough space to cover the spread and at least prevent it being a total disaster of a day.
The tournament in Bucharest was affected by the rain in the area meaning none of the matches scheduled for the day got to start and the entire Second Round will be played on Thursday. The remainder of the week at that tournament at least looks better from a weather front and those matches picked on Wednesday and the ones I have picked from Thursday should all be completed by Thursday evening.
Damir Dzumhur - 3.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: There is only a few months that separates these players in terms of age and there are only a few places that separate them in the World Rankings. However Damir Dzumhur might have a little more upside than Marco Cecchinato, although the latter has produced the more convincing win this week.
This should be a fascinating Second Round match where I give the slight edge to Dzumhur who had a fantastic week in Monte Carlo before only just being beaten by Milos Raonic. That was a match that Dzumhur will feel he could have won if he was just a little more solid at the big moments in the third set, but he has to take confidence away from that run which should see an improved World Ranking.
The same impact on the main Tour is yet to be made by Cecchinato although the Italian is clearly very comfortable on the clay courts when at the Challenger level. He will likely feel he is the better clay court player in this one, but I am not convinced that is the case and Dzumhur could have the edge in the contest if he is able to produce a high percentage of first serves.
In their two previous matches on the Tour, Dzumhur has won both without dropping a set, including earlier this season. However both have been on the hard courts and Dzumhur has to be at his best to get the better of Cecchinato in this one, although I expect he can do that after a few breaks of serve for both players.
I expect Dzumhur can move through to the Quarter Final after a 75, 64 win in this one.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Radu Albot: It is a little weird to write this, but Fernando Verdasco has dropped to Number 86 in the World Rankings after a really inconsistent twelve months. That is still significantly higher than Radu Albot who is in the mid-100's in the World Ranking, but Verdasco would be expecting to improve his World Ranking over the next few months.
When you look back at the results, Verdasco has only won back to back matches in the same tournament twice since Wimbledon which is a big reason he has dropped in the World Rankings. Verdasco didn't have the best of clay court seasons either so this is an opportunity for him to pick up some vital Ranking points to get his position moving in the right direction.
Radu Albot will look for his serve to set up the points in this one, but he won't have faced too many players with the firepower that Verdasco can produce when he is working at top form. It is hard to trust that happening on a day by day basis, but Verdasco has to be encouraged by the way Nicolas Almagro dominated Albot when they met in Casablanca earlier this month.
As long as Verdasco remains focused on the task at hand and is not making a silly amount of unforced errors, he should have the better of this contest. The Spaniard can work his way through to a 63, 64 win in this one.
MY PICKS: Damir Dzumhur - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Paolo Lorenzi - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units) Already Advised
Guido Pella - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units) Already Advised
Weekly Update: 2-3, - 2.94 Units (10 Units Staked, - 29.4% Yield)
Thankfully Angelique Kerber came back from a set down to beat Annika Beck with enough space to cover the spread and at least prevent it being a total disaster of a day.
The tournament in Bucharest was affected by the rain in the area meaning none of the matches scheduled for the day got to start and the entire Second Round will be played on Thursday. The remainder of the week at that tournament at least looks better from a weather front and those matches picked on Wednesday and the ones I have picked from Thursday should all be completed by Thursday evening.
Damir Dzumhur - 3.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: There is only a few months that separates these players in terms of age and there are only a few places that separate them in the World Rankings. However Damir Dzumhur might have a little more upside than Marco Cecchinato, although the latter has produced the more convincing win this week.
This should be a fascinating Second Round match where I give the slight edge to Dzumhur who had a fantastic week in Monte Carlo before only just being beaten by Milos Raonic. That was a match that Dzumhur will feel he could have won if he was just a little more solid at the big moments in the third set, but he has to take confidence away from that run which should see an improved World Ranking.
The same impact on the main Tour is yet to be made by Cecchinato although the Italian is clearly very comfortable on the clay courts when at the Challenger level. He will likely feel he is the better clay court player in this one, but I am not convinced that is the case and Dzumhur could have the edge in the contest if he is able to produce a high percentage of first serves.
In their two previous matches on the Tour, Dzumhur has won both without dropping a set, including earlier this season. However both have been on the hard courts and Dzumhur has to be at his best to get the better of Cecchinato in this one, although I expect he can do that after a few breaks of serve for both players.
I expect Dzumhur can move through to the Quarter Final after a 75, 64 win in this one.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Radu Albot: It is a little weird to write this, but Fernando Verdasco has dropped to Number 86 in the World Rankings after a really inconsistent twelve months. That is still significantly higher than Radu Albot who is in the mid-100's in the World Ranking, but Verdasco would be expecting to improve his World Ranking over the next few months.
When you look back at the results, Verdasco has only won back to back matches in the same tournament twice since Wimbledon which is a big reason he has dropped in the World Rankings. Verdasco didn't have the best of clay court seasons either so this is an opportunity for him to pick up some vital Ranking points to get his position moving in the right direction.
Radu Albot will look for his serve to set up the points in this one, but he won't have faced too many players with the firepower that Verdasco can produce when he is working at top form. It is hard to trust that happening on a day by day basis, but Verdasco has to be encouraged by the way Nicolas Almagro dominated Albot when they met in Casablanca earlier this month.
As long as Verdasco remains focused on the task at hand and is not making a silly amount of unforced errors, he should have the better of this contest. The Spaniard can work his way through to a 63, 64 win in this one.
MY PICKS: Damir Dzumhur - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Paolo Lorenzi - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units) Already Advised
Guido Pella - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units) Already Advised
Weekly Update: 2-3, - 2.94 Units (10 Units Staked, - 29.4% Yield)
Tennis Picks 2016 (April 20th)
The first day of picks from the tournaments being played this week was a mixed bag with one pick coming in as a winner and the other falling short.
There wasn't a lot that interested me on Tuesday, but on Wednesday there looks to be more options to go with as I look for the week to really get going from here.
Paolo Lorenzi - 2.5 games v Taro Daniel: This looks to be a match between someone who is very comfortable on the clay courts against another player who has perhaps a surprisingly good record at the Challenger level. Paolo Lorenzi is the favourite in this match, but Taro Daniel can't be underestimated and I think it could be a match that features a few breaks of serve for both players.
There is reasons you can make to back either player, but for Lorenzi is the more solid player at this level on this surface and I expect he can make that experience count. The Italian doesn't have the most intimidating serve with it being little more than a rally starter, but the same can be said for Daniel and that is the reason I think there will be a few breaks of serve.
It is hard to trust a player that lost to Tommy Paul on the clay, but that defeat for Lorenzi came in Houston where the clay courts definitely play in a much more unusual manner than the majority of those around the world. His First Round win over Diego Sebastian Schwartzman was much more impressive and I do think Lorenzi is the better player in this match.
Lorenzi will need to serve semi-effectively to keep Daniel from building any confidence, but doing that should give him a chance to come through in two tough sets with a 64, 64 scoreline behind him.
Guido Pella - 2.5 games v Daniel Gimeno-Traver: These players have already met once on the Tour this season in Rio de Janeiro when Guido Pella had to come from a set down to see off Daniel Gimeno-Traver. Both players are very comfortable on the clay courts, although this time Gimeno-Traver may be looking for the European clay to give him an advantage over Argentinian Pella who won on the South American clay.
Neither player has really had a strong clay court season since the move across to Europe and both have suffered disappointing early losses. However both have played well in Bucharest to get through to the Second Round, although the more impressive win was Pella's.
He will need to serve effectively from the left handed stance to keep Gimeno-Traver from getting too comfortable in the match and it would be a surprise if both the Spaniard and Pella don't suffer some breaks of serve. While it is difficult holding serve consistently on the slower surfaces, both Pella and Gimeno-Traver know they need to protect the first serve to give them the best chance of progressing through to the Quarter Finals.
I do think Pella is more likely to do that and I do think he can come through this one with a 75, 64 kind of win.
Ekaterina Makarova - 1.5 games v Roberta Vinci: It hasn't been the best season for Ekaterina Makarova but the run at the Miami Masters might have given her the confidence to take into the clay court season. The tournament in Stuttgart is a tough one from the very opening match so Makarova will need to be at her best when she faces Roberta Vinci.
Their previous matches have been competitive with Makarova winning three and Vinci winning two of those. It is the Russian who won their one previous match on the clay courts, while Vinci will have to pick herself up from two very one-sided losses to the Spanish team at the Fed Cup.
There has been a title win for Vinci this season, but generally it has been an inconsistent season for the Italian who had a memorable run to the US Open Final last season. She is obviously very happy on the clay courts being from Italy, but this is a tough match up for her with the obvious power advantage that Makarova has.
Makarova is also a lefty which means she will be attacking the weaker Vinci wing- the Italian relies on a sliced backhand which should allow Makarova to dominate the points and I will back her to win this in three sets and get over this number.
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 games v Lucie Safarova: It might be Lucie Safarova who is the higher Ranked player in this contest, but she has not been in the kind of form to take on compatriot Karolina Pliskova in this contest in Stuttgart. In fact Safarova has lost all four matches she has played in 2016 after a delayed start to the season and she is yet to win a set which is going to be tough to change against Pliskova.
I don't think there is any doubting that Pliskova is better on the faster surfaces as her movement is not the best around the court and can be exposed on the clay courts. However the serve should still be effective on the indoor clay courts and Pliskova has had some positive results on the surface which should mean she can see off Safarova.
It has to be a matter of time before Safarova turns her form around, but it could be a big test for her in this one. Some of the losses that Safarova has suffered have been really disappointing and that has to have knocked the confidence to a level that Pliskova can take advantage of.
Not being able to protect her serve as she would normally like is an issue for Safarova and I think Pliskova will earn enough cheap points to lead to a 76, 64 win.
Angelique Kerber - 5.5 games v Annika Beck: Coming off the Australian Open win has been tough for Angelique Kerber, but there have been signs she is coming to terms with the target on her back. The German will meet compatriot Annika Beck in the Second Round here in Stuttgart and Kerber should be full of confidence after two impressive wins in Fed Cup action.
Playing on the clay should suit Kerber who also reached the Semi Final in Charleston before pulling out with an injury, and I expect she will be too good for Beck. The latter had an impressive win in the First Round, and had some good results on clay last season, but Beck has to really raise her level to stay with someone as good as Kerber.
At the Australian Open, Kerber beat Beck 64, 60 but that was a closer match than the scoreline suggested with Kerber and Beck both struggling to hold serve at times.
That could easily occur here again, but Kerber should be able to work her way through to break points more often than Beck. That should help her produce a 64, 62 win in this one and move into the next Round.
Guido Pella - 2.5 games v Daniel Gimeno-Traver: These players have already met once on the Tour this season in Rio de Janeiro when Guido Pella had to come from a set down to see off Daniel Gimeno-Traver. Both players are very comfortable on the clay courts, although this time Gimeno-Traver may be looking for the European clay to give him an advantage over Argentinian Pella who won on the South American clay.
Neither player has really had a strong clay court season since the move across to Europe and both have suffered disappointing early losses. However both have played well in Bucharest to get through to the Second Round, although the more impressive win was Pella's.
He will need to serve effectively from the left handed stance to keep Gimeno-Traver from getting too comfortable in the match and it would be a surprise if both the Spaniard and Pella don't suffer some breaks of serve. While it is difficult holding serve consistently on the slower surfaces, both Pella and Gimeno-Traver know they need to protect the first serve to give them the best chance of progressing through to the Quarter Finals.
I do think Pella is more likely to do that and I do think he can come through this one with a 75, 64 kind of win.
Ekaterina Makarova - 1.5 games v Roberta Vinci: It hasn't been the best season for Ekaterina Makarova but the run at the Miami Masters might have given her the confidence to take into the clay court season. The tournament in Stuttgart is a tough one from the very opening match so Makarova will need to be at her best when she faces Roberta Vinci.
Their previous matches have been competitive with Makarova winning three and Vinci winning two of those. It is the Russian who won their one previous match on the clay courts, while Vinci will have to pick herself up from two very one-sided losses to the Spanish team at the Fed Cup.
There has been a title win for Vinci this season, but generally it has been an inconsistent season for the Italian who had a memorable run to the US Open Final last season. She is obviously very happy on the clay courts being from Italy, but this is a tough match up for her with the obvious power advantage that Makarova has.
Makarova is also a lefty which means she will be attacking the weaker Vinci wing- the Italian relies on a sliced backhand which should allow Makarova to dominate the points and I will back her to win this in three sets and get over this number.
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 games v Lucie Safarova: It might be Lucie Safarova who is the higher Ranked player in this contest, but she has not been in the kind of form to take on compatriot Karolina Pliskova in this contest in Stuttgart. In fact Safarova has lost all four matches she has played in 2016 after a delayed start to the season and she is yet to win a set which is going to be tough to change against Pliskova.
I don't think there is any doubting that Pliskova is better on the faster surfaces as her movement is not the best around the court and can be exposed on the clay courts. However the serve should still be effective on the indoor clay courts and Pliskova has had some positive results on the surface which should mean she can see off Safarova.
It has to be a matter of time before Safarova turns her form around, but it could be a big test for her in this one. Some of the losses that Safarova has suffered have been really disappointing and that has to have knocked the confidence to a level that Pliskova can take advantage of.
Not being able to protect her serve as she would normally like is an issue for Safarova and I think Pliskova will earn enough cheap points to lead to a 76, 64 win.
Angelique Kerber - 5.5 games v Annika Beck: Coming off the Australian Open win has been tough for Angelique Kerber, but there have been signs she is coming to terms with the target on her back. The German will meet compatriot Annika Beck in the Second Round here in Stuttgart and Kerber should be full of confidence after two impressive wins in Fed Cup action.
Playing on the clay should suit Kerber who also reached the Semi Final in Charleston before pulling out with an injury, and I expect she will be too good for Beck. The latter had an impressive win in the First Round, and had some good results on clay last season, but Beck has to really raise her level to stay with someone as good as Kerber.
At the Australian Open, Kerber beat Beck 64, 60 but that was a closer match than the scoreline suggested with Kerber and Beck both struggling to hold serve at times.
That could easily occur here again, but Kerber should be able to work her way through to break points more often than Beck. That should help her produce a 64, 62 win in this one and move into the next Round.
MY PICKS: Paolo Lorenzi - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Guide Pella - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ekaterina Makarova - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.40 Units (4 Units Staked, - 10% Yield)
Guide Pella - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ekaterina Makarova - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.40 Units (4 Units Staked, - 10% Yield)
Saturday, 18 July 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (July 18th)
The first day of the Davis Cup Quarter Finals are in the book and you have to say it was a fascinating day with surprises, big comebacks, and teams on the brink of making it through to the Semi Finals. In fact the ties in Australia, Belgium and Argentina could all be completed on Saturday if the leading nation wins the Doubles rubber, although I am convinced that at least one of those ties is going to be surprising most tennis fans.
Australia were hosting Kazakhstan on the grass courts in Darwin and I had them as a pretty strong favourite to progress to the Semi Final, but both Thanasi Kokkinakis and Nick Kyrgios were beaten on the first day to put their nation in a big hole. It is not quite over yet for Australia as they are likely the favourites to win the remaining three rubbers, but Kazakhstan have raised their game when the players join up for Davis Cup duty and they look set to move on to take on France or Great Britain.
With Argentina and Belgium both 2-0 up in their ties too, the closest tie going into the weekend and the only one guaranteed to have at least one match on Sunday is the one between Great Britain and France.
The Doubles rubber does look to be pivotal in the tie assuming Andy Murray is to win his remaining Singles rubber and the French will be big favourites to see off James Ward for a second time.
While the Doubles takes centre stage in the Davis Cup ties being played around the world, the tournaments in Bastad, Bucharest and Newport have reached the Semi Finals as those events come to a close. It is a real chance for some players to improve their Rankings while the 'big names' are having a break and the inconsistency lower down the World Rankings has been highlighted this week with a number of surprising names in the Semi Finals.
None of the players will care though as they have a chance to win a title which can't be taken off the record as those Semi Finals are played through the day.
Johanna Larsson - 2.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: There are only two places in the World Rankings that separate Johanna Larsson from Yulia Putintseva and the two players have both been in decent form to suggest this will be a close match.
Both players were Finalists in clay tournaments last week and have barely been pushed on their runs to the Semi Finals here in Bastad. However, I am giving the edge to Larsson who has enjoyed playing in front of her home fans as her previous results in Bastad have suggested and she has a couple of weapons that may give her the chance to progress to another Final here.
The first of those is the serve where Larsson is capable of getting some very good angles and decent kick from it which could be a problem for Putintseva to deal with. Putintseva is one of the smaller girls out on Tour and the kicker might make it difficult for her to get on the front foot like she likes to do and that might allow Larsson to also dictate points.
The second is the obvious fun that Larsson has playing in Bastad and she is more than capable of winning the title here. She seems to have been in more control of her own emotions and Putintseva never seems that far away from mentally getting down on herself as she showed in her Second Round match with Alize Lim.
It might need three sets to separate the players, but I like Larsson to find her way through to the Final with a 57, 64, 63 win in this Semi Final.
Sara Errani - 2.5 games v Monica Niculescu: Monica Niculescu is the last remaining home favourite in Bucharest having disposed of Andreea Mitu in the Quarter Final but this looks a tough match up for her. The Romanian might be one of the more awkward players on the Tour to play with her variation of play and slice off both wings, but Sara Errani has won the last three matches between them.
Sara Errani is someone who won't mind all the skilful tennis that is likely to be on display as she will feel she can grind down Niculescu in the longer, drawn out rallies that we will likely see.
I am expecting a lot of breaks of serve in this one as neither of the players have a powerful serve that is going to earn a lot of cheap points. However, I think Errani is the better clay court player even if she has slipped from the level she showed a couple of years ago.
I think the Italian has also shown a little better form this week and Errani should be capable of winning this match and moving into the Final if she is not distracted by the crowd or the shot selection Niculescu will use. It could be tight for a couple of sets, but Errani should then break clear by just knuckling down enough on serve and moving to the Final.
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova - 2.5 games v Polona Hercog: It hasn't been a great week for the picks, but one player that I have backed with some success is Anna Karolina Schmiedlova. I see no reason to not back her again in this Semi Final against Polona Hercog even if the latter has been in good form this week too.
As impressive as Hercog has been in moving into the Semi Final having lost just fifteen games in three matches, Schmiedlova has been even better with just ten games lost in the same number of matches. Both have had some impressive wins, but I do think Schmiedlova's run has been the better of the two and she may also hold the mental edge having beaten Hercog in Miami as the underdog earlier this season.
It is Schmiedlova who has had the better success on this surface, but this has the makings of a close match where Schmiedlova will have to play the big points as well as she did in the Quarter Final.
The week has been a good one for Hercog, but she had been struggling prior to this time in Bucharest and I think her run comes to an end here. Schmiedlova should note that Hercog is someone that does enjoy playing the drop shots, but dealing with those and being aware of that shot should aid her in a fairly routine win.
MY PICKS: Johanna Larsson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-12, - 9.22 Units (40 Units Staked, - 23.05% Yield)
Australia were hosting Kazakhstan on the grass courts in Darwin and I had them as a pretty strong favourite to progress to the Semi Final, but both Thanasi Kokkinakis and Nick Kyrgios were beaten on the first day to put their nation in a big hole. It is not quite over yet for Australia as they are likely the favourites to win the remaining three rubbers, but Kazakhstan have raised their game when the players join up for Davis Cup duty and they look set to move on to take on France or Great Britain.
With Argentina and Belgium both 2-0 up in their ties too, the closest tie going into the weekend and the only one guaranteed to have at least one match on Sunday is the one between Great Britain and France.
The Doubles rubber does look to be pivotal in the tie assuming Andy Murray is to win his remaining Singles rubber and the French will be big favourites to see off James Ward for a second time.
While the Doubles takes centre stage in the Davis Cup ties being played around the world, the tournaments in Bastad, Bucharest and Newport have reached the Semi Finals as those events come to a close. It is a real chance for some players to improve their Rankings while the 'big names' are having a break and the inconsistency lower down the World Rankings has been highlighted this week with a number of surprising names in the Semi Finals.
None of the players will care though as they have a chance to win a title which can't be taken off the record as those Semi Finals are played through the day.
Johanna Larsson - 2.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: There are only two places in the World Rankings that separate Johanna Larsson from Yulia Putintseva and the two players have both been in decent form to suggest this will be a close match.
Both players were Finalists in clay tournaments last week and have barely been pushed on their runs to the Semi Finals here in Bastad. However, I am giving the edge to Larsson who has enjoyed playing in front of her home fans as her previous results in Bastad have suggested and she has a couple of weapons that may give her the chance to progress to another Final here.
The first of those is the serve where Larsson is capable of getting some very good angles and decent kick from it which could be a problem for Putintseva to deal with. Putintseva is one of the smaller girls out on Tour and the kicker might make it difficult for her to get on the front foot like she likes to do and that might allow Larsson to also dictate points.
The second is the obvious fun that Larsson has playing in Bastad and she is more than capable of winning the title here. She seems to have been in more control of her own emotions and Putintseva never seems that far away from mentally getting down on herself as she showed in her Second Round match with Alize Lim.
It might need three sets to separate the players, but I like Larsson to find her way through to the Final with a 57, 64, 63 win in this Semi Final.
Sara Errani - 2.5 games v Monica Niculescu: Monica Niculescu is the last remaining home favourite in Bucharest having disposed of Andreea Mitu in the Quarter Final but this looks a tough match up for her. The Romanian might be one of the more awkward players on the Tour to play with her variation of play and slice off both wings, but Sara Errani has won the last three matches between them.
Sara Errani is someone who won't mind all the skilful tennis that is likely to be on display as she will feel she can grind down Niculescu in the longer, drawn out rallies that we will likely see.
I am expecting a lot of breaks of serve in this one as neither of the players have a powerful serve that is going to earn a lot of cheap points. However, I think Errani is the better clay court player even if she has slipped from the level she showed a couple of years ago.
I think the Italian has also shown a little better form this week and Errani should be capable of winning this match and moving into the Final if she is not distracted by the crowd or the shot selection Niculescu will use. It could be tight for a couple of sets, but Errani should then break clear by just knuckling down enough on serve and moving to the Final.
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova - 2.5 games v Polona Hercog: It hasn't been a great week for the picks, but one player that I have backed with some success is Anna Karolina Schmiedlova. I see no reason to not back her again in this Semi Final against Polona Hercog even if the latter has been in good form this week too.
As impressive as Hercog has been in moving into the Semi Final having lost just fifteen games in three matches, Schmiedlova has been even better with just ten games lost in the same number of matches. Both have had some impressive wins, but I do think Schmiedlova's run has been the better of the two and she may also hold the mental edge having beaten Hercog in Miami as the underdog earlier this season.
It is Schmiedlova who has had the better success on this surface, but this has the makings of a close match where Schmiedlova will have to play the big points as well as she did in the Quarter Final.
The week has been a good one for Hercog, but she had been struggling prior to this time in Bucharest and I think her run comes to an end here. Schmiedlova should note that Hercog is someone that does enjoy playing the drop shots, but dealing with those and being aware of that shot should aid her in a fairly routine win.
MY PICKS: Johanna Larsson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-12, - 9.22 Units (40 Units Staked, - 23.05% Yield)
Thursday, 16 July 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (July 16th)
Wednesday has proved to be a really miserable day for the picks with the frustration summed up by the vast difference in terms of double faults from the players I picked compared with their opponents.
While double faults aren't going to lose matches on their own, it doesn't help when you are giving your opponent a host of free points and that did make a difference in whether matches and picks were being won or lost.
It truly was a poor day in the office, but Thursday is another day and hopefully one that can produce a lot more positives than Wednesday did.
Any picks from Newport will be put up on Thursday lunchtime, which is still plenty of time before the first match is scheduled to begin, once the markets are up from the layers.
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova v Denisa Allertova: A Second Round match in Bucharest is almost a pick 'em contest as Anna Karolina Schmiedlova and Denisa Allertova look for a big win. With both players Ranked inside the top 80 in the World, both will also know this field gives them some chance to really pick up some vital Ranking points if they can get through this Second Round match.
It was Schmiedlova who came through the First Round with more ease, but Allertova's win was impressive too even if it went the distance. The clay courts suit both Schmiedlova and Allertova and they have had considerable success on the Tour at both main Tour level as well as in those events below that tier.
This should be a tough match where both players will be involved in some long rallies, but I think Schmiedlova has the slightly stronger serve which will help produce shorter, more effective points.
It will be hard for Allertova to keep having to win the longer points to stay with Schmiedlova if the latter is serving effectively. While there should be a few breaks of serve for both players, I expect Schmiedlova is the one standing and moving into the Quarter Finals.
Sorana Cirstea v Andreea Mitu: Two home favourites meet in the Second Round, the second time they have met in a little over a week as Sorana Cirstea looks to frank her win over Andreea Mitu from last week.
After her breakthrough years on the Tour in 2012 and 2013, Sorana Cirstea has slipped down the Rankings and it has been a poor season for her. There is talent there, but Cirstea's consistency has completely left her and her win in the First Round is the first victory on the main Tour in 2015, a far cry from her 32 wins in 2013 at this level.
Cirstea failed to qualify for the French Open, but she did beat Mitu in two tight sets last week on the clay and will feel she can beat her compatriot again. Mitu did reach the Fourth Round at Roland Garros but her three wins there account for half of her main Tour wins for the season.
The younger Romanian has had some real success below the main WTA Tour level, but I do wonder if Mitu has an inferiority complex to overcome. While she was building her way onto the Tour, she would have seen Cirstea really enjoying some success and I do wonder if she has the 'belief' to win a match like this.
The couple of wins that Cirstea had last week should have improved confidence if her First Round success is anything to go by. As well as Mitu played at Roland Garros, she has been in poor form since losing in the Fourth Round there and I am looking for Cirstea to frank the victory she had over Mitu last week.
Yulia Putintseva - 4.5 games v Alize Lim: If there is one player that perhaps garners a little more attention than her World Ranking would suggest she should be getting, I would pick Alize Lim as that player. She is dating Jeremy Chardy, a much higher Ranked player on the ATP Tour, but Lim seems to be more popular for social media posts and pictures.
She has had a good week already in Bastad and a place in the Quarter Finals could see a huge improvement in her Ranking, but Alize Lim faces a big task to knock off Yulia Putintseva.
Both players had a decent week last week too with Lim winning an event and Putintseva reaching the Final on another on clay, although tennis is all about tiers and Lim's was much lower than Putintseva's.
Three good wins is impressive from Lim this week, but generally she does play in much weaker events than someone like Putintseva. The latter has had some decent results on clay this season and is beginning to be more comfortable at the highest level of the WTA Tour and I do think she will be a little too consistent for Lim in this one.
A 64, 63 win for Putintseva looks to be on the cards and it looks a big price for her to cover this number of games.
Serena Williams - 7.5 games v Klara Koukalova: There really isn't a lot to say about this Second Round match except it might be a surprise to many to see Serena Williams out on the Tour just days after winning Wimbledon. The fact that she is back at Bastad for the second time in three seasons playing a clay court event should say she really enjoyed the last time she played here as she dominated on her way to winning the title.
Unsurprisingly, Williams was a dominant First Round winner on Wednesday as she was given an extra day to get herself ready after winning the title at SW19 on Saturday. Serena Williams admitted the move from grass to clay is not a troubling one and she should be far too good for Klara Koukalova who is the same age as Williams, but nowhere near as effective these days.
All the talk in the build up was about the tight matches these two played on the clay a few years ago, but the 60, 64 win for Williams against Koukalova here two years ago has been ignored.
This is still a big number for Williams to cover if she is not quite on her game, but she looked confident on Wednesday. It also has to be said that Koukalova has taken some heavy losses this season including a 61, 63 loss to Kristina Kucova last week and I do wonder how she contains the World Number 1.
When Williams played in Bastad two years ago, she hammered her way to the title and I think she is going to be far too good for Koukalova as she was two years ago. This time it might be a 63, 61 win for the World Number 1 and holder of all four WTA Grand Slams.
Anna-Lena Friedsam + 2.5 games v Johanna Larsson: The home crowd are going to be fully behind Johanna Larsson to continue her positive last two weeks as she begins to return to full fitness on the Tour. After reaching the Final at an event in Versmold last week, Larsson was given an extra day before having her First Round match scheduled and responded with a straight forward win.
The match up with Anna-Lena Friedsdam is going to be a very difficult one as the German has shown she is comfortable playing on the clay courts. The most obvious highlight of her season was holding a set lead over Serena Williams at Roland Garros before being defeated, and her best results have come on the surface this season.
Friedsam is still young and that has seen her produce a lot of inconsistent performances which makes me wonder if she can see off Larsson in this Second Round match. However, it also has to be pointed out that Larsson had to dig deep to reach the Final last week and I do wonder how much has been left in the tank for Bastad.
I can understand why Larsson is the favourite though as she has had some positive results on the clay herself. She is also very comfortable playing at home as shown by two previous Finals and a Semi Final in Bastad before a First Round loss last season. I do think Larsson likely wins, but Friedsam has enough to take a set and make this competitive in a match that might be very close.
MY PICKS: Anna Karolina Schmiedlova @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Yulia Putintseva - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anna-Lena Friedsam + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-7, - 6.74 Units (22 Units Staked, - 30.64% Yield)
While double faults aren't going to lose matches on their own, it doesn't help when you are giving your opponent a host of free points and that did make a difference in whether matches and picks were being won or lost.
It truly was a poor day in the office, but Thursday is another day and hopefully one that can produce a lot more positives than Wednesday did.
Any picks from Newport will be put up on Thursday lunchtime, which is still plenty of time before the first match is scheduled to begin, once the markets are up from the layers.
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova v Denisa Allertova: A Second Round match in Bucharest is almost a pick 'em contest as Anna Karolina Schmiedlova and Denisa Allertova look for a big win. With both players Ranked inside the top 80 in the World, both will also know this field gives them some chance to really pick up some vital Ranking points if they can get through this Second Round match.
It was Schmiedlova who came through the First Round with more ease, but Allertova's win was impressive too even if it went the distance. The clay courts suit both Schmiedlova and Allertova and they have had considerable success on the Tour at both main Tour level as well as in those events below that tier.
This should be a tough match where both players will be involved in some long rallies, but I think Schmiedlova has the slightly stronger serve which will help produce shorter, more effective points.
It will be hard for Allertova to keep having to win the longer points to stay with Schmiedlova if the latter is serving effectively. While there should be a few breaks of serve for both players, I expect Schmiedlova is the one standing and moving into the Quarter Finals.
Sorana Cirstea v Andreea Mitu: Two home favourites meet in the Second Round, the second time they have met in a little over a week as Sorana Cirstea looks to frank her win over Andreea Mitu from last week.
After her breakthrough years on the Tour in 2012 and 2013, Sorana Cirstea has slipped down the Rankings and it has been a poor season for her. There is talent there, but Cirstea's consistency has completely left her and her win in the First Round is the first victory on the main Tour in 2015, a far cry from her 32 wins in 2013 at this level.
Cirstea failed to qualify for the French Open, but she did beat Mitu in two tight sets last week on the clay and will feel she can beat her compatriot again. Mitu did reach the Fourth Round at Roland Garros but her three wins there account for half of her main Tour wins for the season.
The younger Romanian has had some real success below the main WTA Tour level, but I do wonder if Mitu has an inferiority complex to overcome. While she was building her way onto the Tour, she would have seen Cirstea really enjoying some success and I do wonder if she has the 'belief' to win a match like this.
The couple of wins that Cirstea had last week should have improved confidence if her First Round success is anything to go by. As well as Mitu played at Roland Garros, she has been in poor form since losing in the Fourth Round there and I am looking for Cirstea to frank the victory she had over Mitu last week.
Yulia Putintseva - 4.5 games v Alize Lim: If there is one player that perhaps garners a little more attention than her World Ranking would suggest she should be getting, I would pick Alize Lim as that player. She is dating Jeremy Chardy, a much higher Ranked player on the ATP Tour, but Lim seems to be more popular for social media posts and pictures.
She has had a good week already in Bastad and a place in the Quarter Finals could see a huge improvement in her Ranking, but Alize Lim faces a big task to knock off Yulia Putintseva.
Both players had a decent week last week too with Lim winning an event and Putintseva reaching the Final on another on clay, although tennis is all about tiers and Lim's was much lower than Putintseva's.
Three good wins is impressive from Lim this week, but generally she does play in much weaker events than someone like Putintseva. The latter has had some decent results on clay this season and is beginning to be more comfortable at the highest level of the WTA Tour and I do think she will be a little too consistent for Lim in this one.
A 64, 63 win for Putintseva looks to be on the cards and it looks a big price for her to cover this number of games.
Serena Williams - 7.5 games v Klara Koukalova: There really isn't a lot to say about this Second Round match except it might be a surprise to many to see Serena Williams out on the Tour just days after winning Wimbledon. The fact that she is back at Bastad for the second time in three seasons playing a clay court event should say she really enjoyed the last time she played here as she dominated on her way to winning the title.
Unsurprisingly, Williams was a dominant First Round winner on Wednesday as she was given an extra day to get herself ready after winning the title at SW19 on Saturday. Serena Williams admitted the move from grass to clay is not a troubling one and she should be far too good for Klara Koukalova who is the same age as Williams, but nowhere near as effective these days.
All the talk in the build up was about the tight matches these two played on the clay a few years ago, but the 60, 64 win for Williams against Koukalova here two years ago has been ignored.
This is still a big number for Williams to cover if she is not quite on her game, but she looked confident on Wednesday. It also has to be said that Koukalova has taken some heavy losses this season including a 61, 63 loss to Kristina Kucova last week and I do wonder how she contains the World Number 1.
When Williams played in Bastad two years ago, she hammered her way to the title and I think she is going to be far too good for Koukalova as she was two years ago. This time it might be a 63, 61 win for the World Number 1 and holder of all four WTA Grand Slams.
Anna-Lena Friedsam + 2.5 games v Johanna Larsson: The home crowd are going to be fully behind Johanna Larsson to continue her positive last two weeks as she begins to return to full fitness on the Tour. After reaching the Final at an event in Versmold last week, Larsson was given an extra day before having her First Round match scheduled and responded with a straight forward win.
The match up with Anna-Lena Friedsdam is going to be a very difficult one as the German has shown she is comfortable playing on the clay courts. The most obvious highlight of her season was holding a set lead over Serena Williams at Roland Garros before being defeated, and her best results have come on the surface this season.
Friedsam is still young and that has seen her produce a lot of inconsistent performances which makes me wonder if she can see off Larsson in this Second Round match. However, it also has to be pointed out that Larsson had to dig deep to reach the Final last week and I do wonder how much has been left in the tank for Bastad.
I can understand why Larsson is the favourite though as she has had some positive results on the clay herself. She is also very comfortable playing at home as shown by two previous Finals and a Semi Final in Bastad before a First Round loss last season. I do think Larsson likely wins, but Friedsam has enough to take a set and make this competitive in a match that might be very close.
MY PICKS: Anna Karolina Schmiedlova @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Yulia Putintseva - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anna-Lena Friedsam + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-7, - 6.74 Units (22 Units Staked, - 30.64% Yield)
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