I've just had a few things to do on Thursday which means I am not able to produce the full breakdowns of the Tennis Picks from the Quarter Final matches that are scheduled for Friday.
For this thread I will simply put the picks down below and I should be back with a proper thread for the Semi Final matches as long as I have any picks from those matches.
MY PICKS: Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-4, + 1.72 Units (18 Units Staked, + 9.56% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Bucharest Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bucharest Picks. Show all posts
Friday, 21 July 2017
Tuesday, 18 July 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (July 18th)
There were quite a few matches scheduled for Monday at the five tournaments being played this week, but I didn't really find anything but the one angle with the Carla Suarez Navarro pick.
Thankfully that was an angle that provided a winner.
On Tuesday I do have a few more matches that have interested me with plenty of First Round matches remaining at the various tournaments. Hopefully it can be a day when I build off the success of Monday and get this week into a really positive position before we reach the halfway mark.
Jiri Vesely - 4.5 games v Norbert Gombos: He can be a hard player to trust having not quite reached the level expected of him, but Jiri Vesely is comfortable on the clay courts and shouldn't be intimidated by the level of competition he will face in Umag. It has been clear from his numbers that Vesely is considerably stronger when playing at the Challenger level compared with the full ATP during his career on this surface, but this tournament is not considerably stronger than a Challenger event.
The First Round match for Vesely against Norbert Gombos is certainly more in line with the level of opponent he would meet in a Challenger and I think the Czech player is going to be too good for Gombos. You have to respect the fact that Gombos has some solid numbers on the clay, but those have come against players Ranked far below Vesely and I do think that is a difference maker on the day.
The service points won and return points won numbers come down considerably for Gombos when he has taken on top 50 Ranked opponents during his career. Life has been much tougher when it comes to trying to hold onto his serve and this could be a big problem against Vesely.
That comes down to the fact that Vesely has served and returned much better when facing the weaker level of competition in the Challengers that he seems to dominate. Vesely's serve is a weapon on either Tour, but it is the return numbers which are significantly stronger and I expect he is going to be able to make that show up on Tuesday.
These two players haven't met since 2014, but I still think Vesely's 5-1 head to head lead, 4-1 on the clay is still relevant. While Gombos hasn't made a significant move onto the main Tour, Vesely has and has also continued to prove too strong when he drops his level of competition and I like the Czech player to earn a 6-3, 6-4 win in this one.
Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 games v Thiago Monteiro: It is never an easy decision to back a player who is coming off a long week where they have either reached the Final or won a tournament. Usually it will mean shortened travel time to the next tournament and can be difficult for a player, but Dusan Lajovic won't have the same excuses having won a Challenger event in Bastad a few days ago.
Now Lajovic enters the main tournament draw in Bastad looking to back up the success of last week and being accustomed to the conditions has to help. His best work has tended to come on the clay courts and he is favoured to beat Thiago Monteiro whose best clay court work has come in South America.
However Monteiro has to be respected having spent his life playing on clay and so feeling very good on the surface. The Brazilian hasn't been in the best of form of late though and I do worry that Monteiro doesn't play the return points well enough on the clay to be a threat to significantly improve his World Ranking.
That isn't to say Lajovic is the best returner out there, but he does tend to improve when playing the Challenger kind of level and his opponent is someone he would potentially see in those tournaments. The return numbers also improve when facing players Ranked outside the top 50 and I think that is important for Lajovic who can protect his serve a little better than Monteiro in this one.
Facing a lefty could present some early problems for Lajovic, and fatigue could be another potential issue for him. However I do think Monteiro's poor returning numbers could prove to be a difference in the match as Lajovic is able to work his way to a 6-4, 6-4 win.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Elias Ymer: His best days are behind him, but Fernando Verdasco should still have enough in the locker to beat home hope Elias Ymer who has yet to make the breakthrough at the highest level in his career. Ymer did reach the Quarter Final of the Bastad Challenger last week, but this is a significant step up in class for him even if Verdasco is not the player he once was.
The serve is not working as it did, but Verdasco has been returning as well as ever in his career in 2017 and I do think he is used to playing opponents who are stronger than the one he will face in the First Round here. You can see the decline in the service numbers, but Verdasco's returning ability should keep him in a strong position in this match.
The Spaniard will certainly feel that will be the case against a limited returner like Ymer, especially when he plays at the highest level of the ATP. And it is Verdasco's returning numbers that are likely to keep the young Swedish player under immense pressure for much of this match that is the reason I am going to look for Verdasco to cover this number.
Those return numbers become much stronger when facing players Ranked outside the top 100, although Verdasco was beaten by one such player in Budapest earlier in 2017. It will take a huge upset for Ymer to be able to follow that up with his own upset considering he is 1-11 against top 50 Ranked players in his career and is likely to be in tough spots throughout this match.
As long as Verdasco is focused, it feels like he is going to be too strong and is able to battle past Ymer with a 6-4, 6-2 kind of win.
Sorana Cirstea - 4.5 games v Ana Bogdan: Two Romanian players meet in the First Round at the WTA Bucharest and I do think the higher Ranked player will be able to make it through to the next Round. That player is Sorana Cirstea who has used her success at a lower level in 2016 to help propel her back up the World Rankings in 2017 as she is back on the regular WTA Tour.
Cirstea faces her compatriot Ana Bogdan who has yet to earn the consistent results to be playing on the WTA Tour on a regular basis. The best results tend to come on the clay though and that makes Bogdan a dangerous opponent for Cirstea having also beaten her last year at the US Open.
The return game is where Bogdan has struggled to make her impact and she is going to be faced with a decent Cirstea serve. It has also meant Bogdan is perhaps under a bit more pressure to protect her own serve when making less of an impact on return as she would have liked, and I am very much expecting Cirstea to have success in those games too.
The fear when backing Cirstea is her own inconsistencies which can see her drop a set by a wide margin of games which will make covering this number almost impossible. However, Cirstea has a solid 10-3 record on the clay when facing players Ranked outside the top 100 while being Ranked inside the top 100 herself, and Cirstea would have covered this margin of games eight times in those ten wins.
It feels like Bogdan may just struggle to stay with Cirstea over the course of the match and I am looking for the latter to fight her way to a 6-4, 6-3 win.
MY PICKS: Jiri Vesely - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-0, + 2 Units (2 Units Staked, + 100% Yield)
Thankfully that was an angle that provided a winner.
On Tuesday I do have a few more matches that have interested me with plenty of First Round matches remaining at the various tournaments. Hopefully it can be a day when I build off the success of Monday and get this week into a really positive position before we reach the halfway mark.
Jiri Vesely - 4.5 games v Norbert Gombos: He can be a hard player to trust having not quite reached the level expected of him, but Jiri Vesely is comfortable on the clay courts and shouldn't be intimidated by the level of competition he will face in Umag. It has been clear from his numbers that Vesely is considerably stronger when playing at the Challenger level compared with the full ATP during his career on this surface, but this tournament is not considerably stronger than a Challenger event.
The First Round match for Vesely against Norbert Gombos is certainly more in line with the level of opponent he would meet in a Challenger and I think the Czech player is going to be too good for Gombos. You have to respect the fact that Gombos has some solid numbers on the clay, but those have come against players Ranked far below Vesely and I do think that is a difference maker on the day.
The service points won and return points won numbers come down considerably for Gombos when he has taken on top 50 Ranked opponents during his career. Life has been much tougher when it comes to trying to hold onto his serve and this could be a big problem against Vesely.
That comes down to the fact that Vesely has served and returned much better when facing the weaker level of competition in the Challengers that he seems to dominate. Vesely's serve is a weapon on either Tour, but it is the return numbers which are significantly stronger and I expect he is going to be able to make that show up on Tuesday.
These two players haven't met since 2014, but I still think Vesely's 5-1 head to head lead, 4-1 on the clay is still relevant. While Gombos hasn't made a significant move onto the main Tour, Vesely has and has also continued to prove too strong when he drops his level of competition and I like the Czech player to earn a 6-3, 6-4 win in this one.
Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 games v Thiago Monteiro: It is never an easy decision to back a player who is coming off a long week where they have either reached the Final or won a tournament. Usually it will mean shortened travel time to the next tournament and can be difficult for a player, but Dusan Lajovic won't have the same excuses having won a Challenger event in Bastad a few days ago.
Now Lajovic enters the main tournament draw in Bastad looking to back up the success of last week and being accustomed to the conditions has to help. His best work has tended to come on the clay courts and he is favoured to beat Thiago Monteiro whose best clay court work has come in South America.
However Monteiro has to be respected having spent his life playing on clay and so feeling very good on the surface. The Brazilian hasn't been in the best of form of late though and I do worry that Monteiro doesn't play the return points well enough on the clay to be a threat to significantly improve his World Ranking.
That isn't to say Lajovic is the best returner out there, but he does tend to improve when playing the Challenger kind of level and his opponent is someone he would potentially see in those tournaments. The return numbers also improve when facing players Ranked outside the top 50 and I think that is important for Lajovic who can protect his serve a little better than Monteiro in this one.
Facing a lefty could present some early problems for Lajovic, and fatigue could be another potential issue for him. However I do think Monteiro's poor returning numbers could prove to be a difference in the match as Lajovic is able to work his way to a 6-4, 6-4 win.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Elias Ymer: His best days are behind him, but Fernando Verdasco should still have enough in the locker to beat home hope Elias Ymer who has yet to make the breakthrough at the highest level in his career. Ymer did reach the Quarter Final of the Bastad Challenger last week, but this is a significant step up in class for him even if Verdasco is not the player he once was.
The serve is not working as it did, but Verdasco has been returning as well as ever in his career in 2017 and I do think he is used to playing opponents who are stronger than the one he will face in the First Round here. You can see the decline in the service numbers, but Verdasco's returning ability should keep him in a strong position in this match.
The Spaniard will certainly feel that will be the case against a limited returner like Ymer, especially when he plays at the highest level of the ATP. And it is Verdasco's returning numbers that are likely to keep the young Swedish player under immense pressure for much of this match that is the reason I am going to look for Verdasco to cover this number.
Those return numbers become much stronger when facing players Ranked outside the top 100, although Verdasco was beaten by one such player in Budapest earlier in 2017. It will take a huge upset for Ymer to be able to follow that up with his own upset considering he is 1-11 against top 50 Ranked players in his career and is likely to be in tough spots throughout this match.
As long as Verdasco is focused, it feels like he is going to be too strong and is able to battle past Ymer with a 6-4, 6-2 kind of win.
Sorana Cirstea - 4.5 games v Ana Bogdan: Two Romanian players meet in the First Round at the WTA Bucharest and I do think the higher Ranked player will be able to make it through to the next Round. That player is Sorana Cirstea who has used her success at a lower level in 2016 to help propel her back up the World Rankings in 2017 as she is back on the regular WTA Tour.
Cirstea faces her compatriot Ana Bogdan who has yet to earn the consistent results to be playing on the WTA Tour on a regular basis. The best results tend to come on the clay though and that makes Bogdan a dangerous opponent for Cirstea having also beaten her last year at the US Open.
The return game is where Bogdan has struggled to make her impact and she is going to be faced with a decent Cirstea serve. It has also meant Bogdan is perhaps under a bit more pressure to protect her own serve when making less of an impact on return as she would have liked, and I am very much expecting Cirstea to have success in those games too.
The fear when backing Cirstea is her own inconsistencies which can see her drop a set by a wide margin of games which will make covering this number almost impossible. However, Cirstea has a solid 10-3 record on the clay when facing players Ranked outside the top 100 while being Ranked inside the top 100 herself, and Cirstea would have covered this margin of games eight times in those ten wins.
It feels like Bogdan may just struggle to stay with Cirstea over the course of the match and I am looking for the latter to fight her way to a 6-4, 6-3 win.
MY PICKS: Jiri Vesely - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-0, + 2 Units (2 Units Staked, + 100% Yield)
Monday, 17 July 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (July 17th)
2017 in general feels like it is has been rushing through and that is underlined by the Tennis Tour which has taken in three of the four Grand Slams.
Wimbledon 2017 came to a close on Sunday and I have to say it was not really a stand out tournament, although it will be a memorable one from a historical point of view. Roger Federer winning his eighth Wimbledon title, the first male player to do that in the history of the tournament, will be replayed for many years although it was the second of two disappointing Singles Finals we saw this weekend.
Garbine Muguruza was the other winner, but it may be a case of what may have been for Venus Williams who was leading 5-4 and earned two set points on the Spaniard's serve. Not for the first time over the last two weeks, Muguruza saved those to come out of the game and she went on to win the final NINE games of the Final to pick up a second Grand Slam crown.
I will admit the last time she won a Slam at the French Open last year, I thought Muguruza had all the tools to be a leading contender for every Slam following, but she didn't cope with the new expectations. With more experience we may see Muguruza kick on from the Wimbledon title, although the US Open looks to be another wide open draw on the women's side of the tournament.
It will be Roger Federer who goes into New York City as the favourite for the men's title with the likes of Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray both dealing with injuries which may leave them undercooked for a tilt at the title. Rafael Nadal is playing well enough to be a threat, but it does have to be said that the court conditions we usually see at Flushing Meadows will favour Federer more than the Spaniard and he will be the man to beat in that draw.
There are six weeks before the US Open begins on Monday 28th August and the Tour doesn't stop to gather a breath after the exertions of Wimbledon. While the big hard court events in North America will be played in August, preparation for the US Open will begin later this month in Atlanta and Washington.
This week it is a chance for the clay court loving players to enjoy some final tournaments on their favourite surface. The events in Bastad, Bucharest, Gstaad and Umag are clay events on the ATP and WTA side of the Tour, while the men will have a final grass court event which is held in Newport.
Wimbledon did prove to be a tough tournament for the tennis picks with that generally being the worst of my Grand Slam picks. The outright picks did at least bring in a profit, but the daily picks struggled and the grass court season in general was a poor one for my picks.
A bit better luck may have turned things in my favour, but I just have to take it for what it is and look for better over the remainder of the month to perhaps get into a stronger position.
Picks this week may come out a little inconsistently with the tournaments being played not exactly the strongest, but if anything does take my fancy I will be sure to put those picks down.
On Monday I have only had my eye on one pick coming from the WTA Bucharest First Round.
Carla Suarez Navarro - 5.5 games v Annika Beck: It can be difficult to trust Carla Suarez Navarro when asking the Spaniard to cover big numbers simply because her serve is one that can be attacked by opponents. The return game is where Annika Beck's strength is too, which makes this a difficult match for Suarez Navarro, although I do give the latter a big enough edge on the clay courts to be able to come through with a healthy margin of victory.
While you would say that Suarez Navarro has had a difficult time on the grass, she has at least been putting matches into the legs compared with Beck who has played just twice in the last eight weeks. Both of those matches ended in one-sided defeats for the German and Beck has lost six of her last seven matches on the Tour to slip down the World Rankings.
Suarez Navarro has had some solid runs on the clay courts, which is no surprise considering how much she enjoys the surface, but some defeats will have raised eyebrows over the clay season in 2017. Defeats to Lauren Davis and Coco Vandeweghe as a favourite were a surprise, but you can't ignore how well Suarez Navarro tends to play against players Ranked outside the top 50 when it comes to meeting them on the clay.
The Spaniard is 27-2 in that spot on the clay, and eighteen of those wins would have come by a margin to cover this number of games. The serve can be an issue for Suarez Navarro, but she has returned really effectively when facing the lower Ranked players on the Tour and I will be looking for that to show up in this match with Beck, whose own serve is very vulnerable.
Beck's own numbers do not look great when facing players inside the top 50 of the World Rankings and on the clay courts. I do think she will have her chances to break serve, but I am not sure she will do that enough to stay with Suarez Navarro who should earn at least four or five breaks in this one.
It is a big number, but I am looking for Suarez Navarro to perhaps move into the Second Round behind a 6-3, 6-2 kind of score.
MY PICKS: Carla Suarez Navarro - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Wimbledon 2017 came to a close on Sunday and I have to say it was not really a stand out tournament, although it will be a memorable one from a historical point of view. Roger Federer winning his eighth Wimbledon title, the first male player to do that in the history of the tournament, will be replayed for many years although it was the second of two disappointing Singles Finals we saw this weekend.
Garbine Muguruza was the other winner, but it may be a case of what may have been for Venus Williams who was leading 5-4 and earned two set points on the Spaniard's serve. Not for the first time over the last two weeks, Muguruza saved those to come out of the game and she went on to win the final NINE games of the Final to pick up a second Grand Slam crown.
I will admit the last time she won a Slam at the French Open last year, I thought Muguruza had all the tools to be a leading contender for every Slam following, but she didn't cope with the new expectations. With more experience we may see Muguruza kick on from the Wimbledon title, although the US Open looks to be another wide open draw on the women's side of the tournament.
It will be Roger Federer who goes into New York City as the favourite for the men's title with the likes of Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray both dealing with injuries which may leave them undercooked for a tilt at the title. Rafael Nadal is playing well enough to be a threat, but it does have to be said that the court conditions we usually see at Flushing Meadows will favour Federer more than the Spaniard and he will be the man to beat in that draw.
There are six weeks before the US Open begins on Monday 28th August and the Tour doesn't stop to gather a breath after the exertions of Wimbledon. While the big hard court events in North America will be played in August, preparation for the US Open will begin later this month in Atlanta and Washington.
This week it is a chance for the clay court loving players to enjoy some final tournaments on their favourite surface. The events in Bastad, Bucharest, Gstaad and Umag are clay events on the ATP and WTA side of the Tour, while the men will have a final grass court event which is held in Newport.
Wimbledon did prove to be a tough tournament for the tennis picks with that generally being the worst of my Grand Slam picks. The outright picks did at least bring in a profit, but the daily picks struggled and the grass court season in general was a poor one for my picks.
A bit better luck may have turned things in my favour, but I just have to take it for what it is and look for better over the remainder of the month to perhaps get into a stronger position.
Picks this week may come out a little inconsistently with the tournaments being played not exactly the strongest, but if anything does take my fancy I will be sure to put those picks down.
On Monday I have only had my eye on one pick coming from the WTA Bucharest First Round.
Carla Suarez Navarro - 5.5 games v Annika Beck: It can be difficult to trust Carla Suarez Navarro when asking the Spaniard to cover big numbers simply because her serve is one that can be attacked by opponents. The return game is where Annika Beck's strength is too, which makes this a difficult match for Suarez Navarro, although I do give the latter a big enough edge on the clay courts to be able to come through with a healthy margin of victory.
While you would say that Suarez Navarro has had a difficult time on the grass, she has at least been putting matches into the legs compared with Beck who has played just twice in the last eight weeks. Both of those matches ended in one-sided defeats for the German and Beck has lost six of her last seven matches on the Tour to slip down the World Rankings.
Suarez Navarro has had some solid runs on the clay courts, which is no surprise considering how much she enjoys the surface, but some defeats will have raised eyebrows over the clay season in 2017. Defeats to Lauren Davis and Coco Vandeweghe as a favourite were a surprise, but you can't ignore how well Suarez Navarro tends to play against players Ranked outside the top 50 when it comes to meeting them on the clay.
The Spaniard is 27-2 in that spot on the clay, and eighteen of those wins would have come by a margin to cover this number of games. The serve can be an issue for Suarez Navarro, but she has returned really effectively when facing the lower Ranked players on the Tour and I will be looking for that to show up in this match with Beck, whose own serve is very vulnerable.
Beck's own numbers do not look great when facing players inside the top 50 of the World Rankings and on the clay courts. I do think she will have her chances to break serve, but I am not sure she will do that enough to stay with Suarez Navarro who should earn at least four or five breaks in this one.
It is a big number, but I am looking for Suarez Navarro to perhaps move into the Second Round behind a 6-3, 6-2 kind of score.
MY PICKS: Carla Suarez Navarro - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Season 2017: - 33.74 Units (1430 Units Staked, - 2.36% Yield)
Season 2016: - 5.64 Units (2013 Units Staked, - 0.00% Yield)
Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Wednesday, 22 February 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (February 23rd)
This is going to be a very short thread.
I am going to have no more tennis picks this week after too many bad luck situations through the last ten days which has really messed with my mind. The final straw today was Elina Svitolina winning 20 more points than her opponent but not being able to get near to the cover, a number which told me all I wanted to know about where the fortune is going this week.
That match alone made me decide sometimes it is better to take a step back, refocus, and get back on the horse.
Another stat that I tweeted out earlier just summed up the way things were going- I took a match from each of the last three days that hasn't covered and noticed my players had 53 break points compared with 26 and yet none of those players could get over the hump. Again, you have to look at the stats and say something is going wrong this week when everything is pointing to it being right.
The numbers don't lie so where I usually apportion the blame to myself and making 'bad picks', this time I am going to say it is clear that I need to hit the reset button on the week. I should have been on the right side of at least five picks this week which has added to at least three more from last week where the players I picked won more points but somehow still conspired to lose the match.
I'm pissed off.
And that means the mind is a little clouded and needs a couple of days to clear up.
On this blog you will see the NBA Picks and the Weekend Football Picks and hopefully I can get next week off to a much better start on Sunday when the ATP Dubai tournament begins. This is a long season for the tennis picks so being able to take a step back and refocus should not be seen as a negative, but a positive to improve the general feeling and then take that forward.
Good luck to those having a better week with their tennis picks than I have been.
I am going to have no more tennis picks this week after too many bad luck situations through the last ten days which has really messed with my mind. The final straw today was Elina Svitolina winning 20 more points than her opponent but not being able to get near to the cover, a number which told me all I wanted to know about where the fortune is going this week.
That match alone made me decide sometimes it is better to take a step back, refocus, and get back on the horse.
Another stat that I tweeted out earlier just summed up the way things were going- I took a match from each of the last three days that hasn't covered and noticed my players had 53 break points compared with 26 and yet none of those players could get over the hump. Again, you have to look at the stats and say something is going wrong this week when everything is pointing to it being right.
The numbers don't lie so where I usually apportion the blame to myself and making 'bad picks', this time I am going to say it is clear that I need to hit the reset button on the week. I should have been on the right side of at least five picks this week which has added to at least three more from last week where the players I picked won more points but somehow still conspired to lose the match.
I'm pissed off.
And that means the mind is a little clouded and needs a couple of days to clear up.
On this blog you will see the NBA Picks and the Weekend Football Picks and hopefully I can get next week off to a much better start on Sunday when the ATP Dubai tournament begins. This is a long season for the tennis picks so being able to take a step back and refocus should not be seen as a negative, but a positive to improve the general feeling and then take that forward.
Good luck to those having a better week with their tennis picks than I have been.
Friday, 15 July 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (July 15th)
The Davis Cup Quarter Finals begin on Friday and the one that will be of most interest where I am is unsurprisingly the one between Serbia and Great Britain. When that Quarter Final was put together back in March, the feeling was that we might get to see the World Number 1 and 2 facing each other in one of the Rubbers, but both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray are not in a position to compete.
With Victor Troicki also out for the home team, Great Britain go into the tie as the favourites to make it through to the Davis Cup Semi Final in an attempt to defend the title they won last season. They are only narrow favourites with all five Rubbers looking very competitive and it should be a fun tie over the next three days.
The other three ties also look competitive with some top matches to be played on Friday in the Singles and I am looking for a fun few days in that competition.
The latter stages of the tournaments that have been in action this week will also be played on Friday with Quarter Finals in many of those events. Organisers in Gstaad are hoping the improved weather forecast for the weekend does come true as that is the only event that is miles behind where they should be with some First Round matches yet to be competed.
You can't really blame the organisers as there really wasn't a lot they could do with the extremely poor weather that has hit the event, but there will be a hope that they can complete the event in the coming days. There would also be a hope that the weather doesn't take a turn for the worse and have the ATP event here next week in a similar predicament with that clay event to start on Monday in the main draw.
It has been a solid week for the picks and it was a decent Thursday too to back up what has been a good week to this point. With just three days to go for the week, I am looking to just kick on a little and give this season a shot in the arm at a time of the season when my 2015 series of picks began to circle the drain.
Pablo Cuevas - 4.5 games v Paul-Henri Mathieu: I still don't know how Paul-Henri Mathieu got out of his Second Round match against Nicolas Almagro facing the pressure he was. The Frenchman has to be happy with the one day of rest he would have had between that match and this Quarter Final, but Pablo Cuevas is very comfortable on the clay courts and has been playing well enough this week to punish Mathieu if his performance levels haven't risen since Wednesday.
It was a long, physical match for Mathieu against Almagro in which he saved eleven of the fourteen break points he earned. The stats show how much pressure the Spaniard had on the Mathieu serve throughout the match and he was just 5-6 on the clay in 2016 before this tournament began. However, Mathieu had three really strong runs in the weeks following Wimbledon last season and for that reason alone he should be respected.
Even with that in mind, it has to be remembered this is the most significant challenge Mathieu would have faced so far this week. Pablo Cuevas has won both matches he has played in Hamburg in straight sets and he has been a title winner on the clay already this season on a couple of different occasions.
Both wins for Cuevas have come behind strong serving displays and doing that here will once again put pressure on Mathieu. Doing that should lead to Cuevas coming through with a 63, 64 win in this one and a place in the Semi Final to be played on Saturday.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 games v Stephane Robert: There won't be too many more chances for these veterans to add a title to their career haul, but both Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Stephane Robert will believe they can beat the other for a Semi Final place. Over the course of the season, Garcia-Lopez does usually produce more on a clay court than Robert, but that won't matter too much in this Quarter Final with so much on the line for both players.
Robert did reach the Final of a Challenger event last month but he hasn't taken that kind of form onto the main Tour draws on this surface.
On the other hand Garcia-Lopez has struggled to get over the line when it comes to Quarter Finals and Semi Finals he has played on the clay this season. That can become a mental issue, but the key for the Spaniard might be recalling how he beat Robert earlier this season.
That was a close match with a number of breaks of serve and plenty of other opportunities to do that. It won't take much for Robert to reverse that form, but I think he was pushed a little too much by Inigo Cervantes in the Second Round and Garcia-Lopez is a better clay court player than his compatriot. After a few breaks, and potentially a final set decider, I think Garcia-Lopez moves past the veteran Frenchman 63, 36, 63.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Facundo Bagnis: It has been two very good wins for Fernando Verdasco which has taken him through to the Quarter Final in Bastad and he has to be feeling he can add to the title he won in Bucharest earlier this season. The Spaniard has given up just ten games in his two wins this week and Verdasco is in the bottom half of the draw which means avoiding top Seed David Ferrer until the Final.
Solid serving and aggressive returning has helped Verdasco keep the pressure on his opponents in the first two Rounds, although the challenge presented by Facundo Bagnis is likely stronger than any he has faced so far.
Bagnis might be known for giving Rafael Nadal a minor, minor scare when breaking him first when they met at the French Open, while his best results have come on the Challenger circuit on in Qualifiers. He will be very comfortable on the clay courts which makes him a threat and Bagnis did have an impressive win over Marcel Granollers in the Second Round.
If the Argentinian serves well, he could give Verdasco more problems than anyone else has so far this week. Bagnis will know that Verdasco does throw in a sloppy service game or two in any set, but I do think the latter is playing very aggressively in a draw that isn't exactly that deep when it comes to talent levels.
After a couple of scares, I expect Verdasco to eventually start wearing down Bagnis with his weight of shot and win this one 64, 63.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Dustin Brown: It is hard to imagine that David Ferrer has hit 34 years of age and I do think his style of tennis is beginning to wear him down. No longer can he simply look to out-rally opponents on the court and grind them down as Ferrer makes too many errors these days and his serve has not looked as vulnerable as it has this season.
The Number 1 Seed in Bastad had to come from a set down and then a break down in the deciding set to see off Calvin Hemery who came through the Qualifiers. Ferrer will know he has to be stronger when facing the dangerous Dustin Brown, even if the clay courts take something away from the German's game.
Even on this surface, Brown will look to get to the net and pressure opponents, but the extra time on the clay means opponents have more success with the pass than on a grass court. Brown did come through Qualifiers and reached the Second Round at the French Open which shows he can perform on the clay courts, but Ferrer should feel he can get the better of the majority of the rallies against someone who will look to hit winners from some ridiculous positions on the court.
If Brown is on his game, he could be very dangerous even against someone like Ferrer on this surface. However I feel the more likely scenario is that Ferrer will get enough returns back in play to earn a fair few break point chances and that should help the Spaniard work his way to a 75, 63 win.
Joao Sousa - 2.5 games v Gastao Elias: These two are Portuguese Davis Cup team-mates, but it is Joao Sousa who has managed to produce consistent enough results to play in plenty more main Tour matches than his compatriot Gastao Elias. Sousa has actually played consistently enough to get into a position to be Seeded at Grand Slam events, but he has lost the last three times he has played Elias although the last of those came back in 2012.
Both men had to win their Second Round matches on Thursday, but it was Sousa who spent a lot less physically and emotionally in his win. That came against a youngster who would have been supported by the home crowd, but Elias had to dig deep and ride his luck to see off Taro Daniel.
It was Daniel who created the break point opportunities, but eventually the Elias aggression proved to be a little too much for Daniel to deal with. He will look to be aggressive in this one too, but Sousa should be prepared to deal with that having faced many players like that at a higher level than Elias.
Mentally he does have to get over the fact he has lost three in a row to Elias, but Sousa is a a much improved player from 2012. Neither player possesses the best serve so expect plenty of rallies and break point chances for both players, but I will look for Sousa to snap his losing run to his fellow Portuguese player and come through 75, 46, 63.
Laura Siegemund - 3.5 games v Polona Hercog: You can see from the rise of Johanna Konta that a successful few months on the WTA Tour can quickly improve a World Ranking for any player. Laura Siegemund is another who has been improving over 2016 and another strong showing on the clay courts could see her get close to being Seeded by the time the US Open rolls around.
The last couple of years has seen Siegemund earn her best results on the clay courts and this season she has been a Quarter Finalist in Charleston and Finalist in Stuttgart on the surface. The latter of those tournaments saw Siegemund beat the likes of Simona Halep, Roberta Vinci and Agnieszka Radwanska without dropping a set and even her very early defeat at the French Open can be forgiven when noting she was drawn against Eugenie Bouchard.
Siegemund is playing Polona Hercog who has struggled for consistency on the clay courts in 2016 and would have had a losing record on the surface prior to her two wins in Bucharest. You have to give Hercog some respect having reached the Semi Final here last season before losing to the eventual winner, but her current form makes it tough to think she can reverse the loss to Siegemund in Stuttgart.
It was Siegemund who got the better of the break point opportunities on that occasion and I think she is more likely to have that success again. It won't always be straight-forward, but Siegemund has shown enough form to think she comes through 75, 64 in this one.
Sara Errani - 2.5 games v Anastasija Sevastova: I was a little fortunate to come out of my Sara Errani pick on Thursday unscathed after she was blown out in the first set against Francesca Schiavone. Unfortunately the latter had to retire after dropping the second set and that allowed last season's Bucharest Finalist to move through to the Quarter Final.
I can see Errani taking advantage of her good fortune in what has been a disappointing clay court season for her by her own high standards. A long losing run on the clay courts can't be simply tossed aside, but Errani has to feel she has lost to better players than Anastasija Sevastova in that time.
Sevastova has reached the Final of a tournament below the main Tour level on the clay, but she would have been 3-4 in main Tour events on this surface prior to the start of this tournament. While those two wins will have given her confidence, Sevastova is going to be playing someone who can frustrate some of the best players on the Tour especially when on the clay courts.
The concern with backing Errani will always be the poor serve which has been attacked much better by opponents this season than previously. The Italian will give up chances to break serve, but I think she can extract errors from the Sevastova game too and Errani can win this match 76, 63.
Gilles Muller - 1.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: Both of these players had to play their Second Round matches on Thursday and both Gilles Muller and Adrian Mannarino had to come through some difficult moments before recording straight sets victories.
Muller had a break advantage twice in the first set, missed a number of set points and then needed to battle through a tie-breaker to get his nose in front against Victor Estrella Burgos. Adrian Mannarino came back from 5-1 down in the first set against Sam Groth before winning that in a tie-breaker and then only losing one point on serve in the second set.
It should mean both players are confident going into this Quarter Final, but I had given Muller a significant edge in the contest before looking at the prices. It seems the layers are less convinced by Muller's advantages over Mannarino and that might be because the lefty serve is not as dominant against another southpaw.
However, I believe Muller will earn more cheap points in this one and I can't ignore the fact Mannarino dropped serve twice to Groth who is a more limited returner than Muller. Mannarino was also beaten 63, 64 by Ivo Karlovic last month on the grass and Muller is a better gras court player than the Frenchman which makes me believe he can cover a small number and ensure he has one of the four Semi Final places on offer.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Juan Monaco: Juan Monaco has admitted that any friendship has to be put on the back burner when he represents Argentina in Rubber 2 of the Davis Cup Quarter Final against Italy. He will take on Fabio Fognini in that Rubber and Monaco has admitted that some sort of revenge is on his mind as the second Singles player for Argentina.
Revenge because Monaco was actually beaten by Fognini the last time he represented Argentina in the Davis Cup in 2014. That loss came in Argentina so he has a chance for the ultimate revenge by beating Fognini in Italy, but the straight sets loss will have had an affect on his mindset for this match.
Prior to that, Monaco had won three in a row against Fognini, but it is the latter who saves some of his best tennis for when he is representing Italy. He has gone 16-6 in Singles matches in the Davis Cup while Fognini is a very impressive 12-1 on the clay courts, although the one concern has to be the poor recent form he has produced.
Some of those losses have been very poor for Fognini, but I think he will have refocused for this one now he is playing in the Davis Cup. I expect Fognini and Monaco will both offer up plenty of break points and this is bound to be a match with a lot of long rallies, but I think Fognini can use the home crowd to come through 63, 26, 64, 64.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 5.5 games v Lukas Rosol: He will forever be remembered for his stunning performance in beating Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon, but Lukas Rosol has struggled to reach those standards consistently. Rosol has been sliding down the World Rankings and he will be opening this Davis Cup Quarter Final for the Czech Republic on the hard courts where he is 5-6 in Davis Cup Rubbers.
He takes on the top French selection in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who crushed Rosol in straight sets for his nation in the Davis Cup in 2014. That match did come on the clay courts and Rosol did beat Tsonga on an indoor hard court at the back end of last season, but Tsonga is someone who has enjoyed playing Davis Cup tennis and showed considerable form at Wimbledon.
While the move in surface can be a concern, Tsonga's performance suggests he can win this opening Rubber as long as he continues to serve as big as he did. Tsonga has struggled with his own consistency through 2016 and injuries have also been an issue for him, but the Frenchman is 11-3 in indoors Davis Cup Rubbers and 6-2 on hard courts.
If Tsonga is serving big, he will give Rosol some problems as a limited returner. Tsonga's own return isn't the best, but Rosol can be very loose with the errors he produces which could give Tsonga a way into the Rosol service games. On an indoor hard court, it won't be as simple as when Tsonga beat Rosol at home two years ago, but I do think the extravagant performer can win this one 75, 67, 75, 63.
Jiri Vesely - 1.5 sets v Lucas Pouille: Both Jiri Vesely and Lucas Pouille will remember Wimbledon 2016 and they will be hoping to look back on that as being a turning point for their careers. Now they both represent their nations in an important Rubber 2 and I think Jiri Vesely can use home advantage to make sure the Czech Republic are not behind after one day of play.
This might only be the eighth Davis Cup match Vesely has played and only the fourth that will be considered a live Singles Rubber, but that is still much more experience than Pouille who makes his debut for France. The latter showed he can thrive under new conditions when reaching the Wimbledon Quarter Final, but Pouille is still to show the consistency on a week by week basis.
He has lost his two previous matches against Vesely and I think the Czech player has also made a big breakthrough in reaching the Fourth Round at Wimbledon. His previous experiences of Davis Cup plus being at home are all advantages over Pouille and a strong serving display from Vesely will make it tough to beat him.
It is Pouille who is higher Ranked going into the match, but I think Vesely can use his additional experience to good effect in this one. His serve looks big enough to cause Pouille problems and I do think the home crowd can affect the young Frenchman even if there will be an easing of that pressure if Tsonga wins Rubber 1.
Vesely's poor form on the hard courts has to be a concern, but I believe he can win this one in three or four sets.
Janko Tipsarevic + 3.5 games v Kyle Edmund: With Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray sitting out, the layers feel this Davis Cup Quarter Final is finely balanced between Serbia and Great Britain. While Great Britain have the edge in terms of World Rankings, Serbia may feel they can get the better of them if Janko Tipsarevic can lean on all the experience he has had in his career.
Tipsarevic opens for Serbia against Kyle Edmund who has lost his one previous Davis Cup Singles match, although that defeat came in the Davis Cup Final against David Goffin from a position of being up two sets. Playing away from home would have given Edmund plenty of experience, but this is going to be a lot more raucous than playing in Belgium and that is going to be difficult to deal with.
It has been three years since Tipsarevic represented Serbia, but he has gone 16-5 in clay court matches for his nation and 12-3 in matches played outdoors. Serbia will be hoping Tipsarevic can use all of those experiences to rattle Edmund, but he hasn't played a lot of tennis this year and is 0-2 in clay court matches in 2016.
Edmund's record isn't much better at 3-4, but he has won a Challenger on the surface and this is all about how he handles the Serbian crowd which can be intimidating. My feeling is that Tipsarevic is perhaps finding some of his best tennis again, although not as consistently as when he was a feature of the top ten in the World Rankings. In saying that, I think he is being given plenty of games that can be crucial in a match that might go the distance and I will back Tipsarevic to cover.
Dusan Lajovic - 5.5 games v James Ward: There is a lot of pressure on Dusan Lajovic as the highest Ranked Serbian player in this Davis Cup Quarter Final. Usually he would be behind both Novak Djokovic and Victor Troicki, but the pressure will be on Lajovic to find a couple of wins over the next three days to give Serbia a chance to progress to the Semi Final.
He is a big favourite to beat James Ward in Rubber 2 on Friday and you can't argue with that when you consider he is a much better clay court player than Ward. This is also one of the better live Rubbers that Lajovic has been given with the majority of his Davis Cup defeats coming against some of the better players on the Tour like Stan Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych.
Lajovic should absolutely respect Ward who stunned John Isner by taking a Rubber win over him last season to help Great Britain on their way to the Davis Cup victory they had in 2015. Ward also stunned Sam Querrey in a live Rubber on the clay a couple of years ago, but he has lost his only other two clay matches and recent form doesn't inspire much confidence.
Ward is now Ranked outside the top 200 in the World Rankings and he is 2-5 on the clay courts in 2016 with none of those matches coming in main Tour draws. The British player simply hasn't been winning a lot of matches recently which has to have a mental effect going into this Davis Cup Quarter Final in which Ward would not have been involved if Andy Murray and Dan Evans were available for selection.
I just don't think Ward has the game to really stay with Lajovic in the likely atmosphere he will face and I think the home favourite will come through 46, 64, 64, 62.
Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Jack Sock: Marin Cilic won the US Open just two years ago and he hasn't just enjoyed playing in the United States but he has also enjoyed playing against opponents from this nation. That will be music to the ears of the Croatian Davis Cup team as Cilic looks to improve his 32-5 record against American players and win two Rubbers to give his team a chance to move through to the Davis Cup Semi Final.
This is the first time Cilic will have played Jack Sock though and the latter is playing in just his fourth Singles Rubber in the Davis Cup. There is no doubting the improvements that Sock has made on the Tour in the last couple of years and he can be a dangerous opponent, but Davis Cup can be a different kettle of fish altogether than playing regular Tour matches.
I don't think Sock will be fazed, especially as he is benefiting from playing at home, but he doesn't have the strongest set of results on the North American hard courts. The heat has beaten him in the last two US Open events, but Sock should not be too worried about that this time, although results at Indian Wells, Miami and Cincinnati are not that inspiring either.
Cilic has to show he has moved on from blowing his Wimbledon Quarter Final against Roger Federer which he should have won in three or four sets. That would have been a big mental blow considering the tennis Cilic produced in that match, but I think he will relish playing for his country as he has throughout his career. A good serving day from the Croatian should see him hold the edge in the contest and I expect Cilic to win this one 75, 63, 46, 64.
MY PICKS: Pablo Cuevas - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Joao Sousa - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Laura Siegemund - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely - 1.5 Sets @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Janko Tipsarevic + 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 14-4, + 17.52 Units (36 Units Staked, + 48.67% Yield)
With Victor Troicki also out for the home team, Great Britain go into the tie as the favourites to make it through to the Davis Cup Semi Final in an attempt to defend the title they won last season. They are only narrow favourites with all five Rubbers looking very competitive and it should be a fun tie over the next three days.
The other three ties also look competitive with some top matches to be played on Friday in the Singles and I am looking for a fun few days in that competition.
The latter stages of the tournaments that have been in action this week will also be played on Friday with Quarter Finals in many of those events. Organisers in Gstaad are hoping the improved weather forecast for the weekend does come true as that is the only event that is miles behind where they should be with some First Round matches yet to be competed.
You can't really blame the organisers as there really wasn't a lot they could do with the extremely poor weather that has hit the event, but there will be a hope that they can complete the event in the coming days. There would also be a hope that the weather doesn't take a turn for the worse and have the ATP event here next week in a similar predicament with that clay event to start on Monday in the main draw.
It has been a solid week for the picks and it was a decent Thursday too to back up what has been a good week to this point. With just three days to go for the week, I am looking to just kick on a little and give this season a shot in the arm at a time of the season when my 2015 series of picks began to circle the drain.
Pablo Cuevas - 4.5 games v Paul-Henri Mathieu: I still don't know how Paul-Henri Mathieu got out of his Second Round match against Nicolas Almagro facing the pressure he was. The Frenchman has to be happy with the one day of rest he would have had between that match and this Quarter Final, but Pablo Cuevas is very comfortable on the clay courts and has been playing well enough this week to punish Mathieu if his performance levels haven't risen since Wednesday.
It was a long, physical match for Mathieu against Almagro in which he saved eleven of the fourteen break points he earned. The stats show how much pressure the Spaniard had on the Mathieu serve throughout the match and he was just 5-6 on the clay in 2016 before this tournament began. However, Mathieu had three really strong runs in the weeks following Wimbledon last season and for that reason alone he should be respected.
Even with that in mind, it has to be remembered this is the most significant challenge Mathieu would have faced so far this week. Pablo Cuevas has won both matches he has played in Hamburg in straight sets and he has been a title winner on the clay already this season on a couple of different occasions.
Both wins for Cuevas have come behind strong serving displays and doing that here will once again put pressure on Mathieu. Doing that should lead to Cuevas coming through with a 63, 64 win in this one and a place in the Semi Final to be played on Saturday.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 games v Stephane Robert: There won't be too many more chances for these veterans to add a title to their career haul, but both Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Stephane Robert will believe they can beat the other for a Semi Final place. Over the course of the season, Garcia-Lopez does usually produce more on a clay court than Robert, but that won't matter too much in this Quarter Final with so much on the line for both players.
Robert did reach the Final of a Challenger event last month but he hasn't taken that kind of form onto the main Tour draws on this surface.
On the other hand Garcia-Lopez has struggled to get over the line when it comes to Quarter Finals and Semi Finals he has played on the clay this season. That can become a mental issue, but the key for the Spaniard might be recalling how he beat Robert earlier this season.
That was a close match with a number of breaks of serve and plenty of other opportunities to do that. It won't take much for Robert to reverse that form, but I think he was pushed a little too much by Inigo Cervantes in the Second Round and Garcia-Lopez is a better clay court player than his compatriot. After a few breaks, and potentially a final set decider, I think Garcia-Lopez moves past the veteran Frenchman 63, 36, 63.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Facundo Bagnis: It has been two very good wins for Fernando Verdasco which has taken him through to the Quarter Final in Bastad and he has to be feeling he can add to the title he won in Bucharest earlier this season. The Spaniard has given up just ten games in his two wins this week and Verdasco is in the bottom half of the draw which means avoiding top Seed David Ferrer until the Final.
Solid serving and aggressive returning has helped Verdasco keep the pressure on his opponents in the first two Rounds, although the challenge presented by Facundo Bagnis is likely stronger than any he has faced so far.
Bagnis might be known for giving Rafael Nadal a minor, minor scare when breaking him first when they met at the French Open, while his best results have come on the Challenger circuit on in Qualifiers. He will be very comfortable on the clay courts which makes him a threat and Bagnis did have an impressive win over Marcel Granollers in the Second Round.
If the Argentinian serves well, he could give Verdasco more problems than anyone else has so far this week. Bagnis will know that Verdasco does throw in a sloppy service game or two in any set, but I do think the latter is playing very aggressively in a draw that isn't exactly that deep when it comes to talent levels.
After a couple of scares, I expect Verdasco to eventually start wearing down Bagnis with his weight of shot and win this one 64, 63.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Dustin Brown: It is hard to imagine that David Ferrer has hit 34 years of age and I do think his style of tennis is beginning to wear him down. No longer can he simply look to out-rally opponents on the court and grind them down as Ferrer makes too many errors these days and his serve has not looked as vulnerable as it has this season.
The Number 1 Seed in Bastad had to come from a set down and then a break down in the deciding set to see off Calvin Hemery who came through the Qualifiers. Ferrer will know he has to be stronger when facing the dangerous Dustin Brown, even if the clay courts take something away from the German's game.
Even on this surface, Brown will look to get to the net and pressure opponents, but the extra time on the clay means opponents have more success with the pass than on a grass court. Brown did come through Qualifiers and reached the Second Round at the French Open which shows he can perform on the clay courts, but Ferrer should feel he can get the better of the majority of the rallies against someone who will look to hit winners from some ridiculous positions on the court.
If Brown is on his game, he could be very dangerous even against someone like Ferrer on this surface. However I feel the more likely scenario is that Ferrer will get enough returns back in play to earn a fair few break point chances and that should help the Spaniard work his way to a 75, 63 win.
Joao Sousa - 2.5 games v Gastao Elias: These two are Portuguese Davis Cup team-mates, but it is Joao Sousa who has managed to produce consistent enough results to play in plenty more main Tour matches than his compatriot Gastao Elias. Sousa has actually played consistently enough to get into a position to be Seeded at Grand Slam events, but he has lost the last three times he has played Elias although the last of those came back in 2012.
Both men had to win their Second Round matches on Thursday, but it was Sousa who spent a lot less physically and emotionally in his win. That came against a youngster who would have been supported by the home crowd, but Elias had to dig deep and ride his luck to see off Taro Daniel.
It was Daniel who created the break point opportunities, but eventually the Elias aggression proved to be a little too much for Daniel to deal with. He will look to be aggressive in this one too, but Sousa should be prepared to deal with that having faced many players like that at a higher level than Elias.
Mentally he does have to get over the fact he has lost three in a row to Elias, but Sousa is a a much improved player from 2012. Neither player possesses the best serve so expect plenty of rallies and break point chances for both players, but I will look for Sousa to snap his losing run to his fellow Portuguese player and come through 75, 46, 63.
Laura Siegemund - 3.5 games v Polona Hercog: You can see from the rise of Johanna Konta that a successful few months on the WTA Tour can quickly improve a World Ranking for any player. Laura Siegemund is another who has been improving over 2016 and another strong showing on the clay courts could see her get close to being Seeded by the time the US Open rolls around.
The last couple of years has seen Siegemund earn her best results on the clay courts and this season she has been a Quarter Finalist in Charleston and Finalist in Stuttgart on the surface. The latter of those tournaments saw Siegemund beat the likes of Simona Halep, Roberta Vinci and Agnieszka Radwanska without dropping a set and even her very early defeat at the French Open can be forgiven when noting she was drawn against Eugenie Bouchard.
Siegemund is playing Polona Hercog who has struggled for consistency on the clay courts in 2016 and would have had a losing record on the surface prior to her two wins in Bucharest. You have to give Hercog some respect having reached the Semi Final here last season before losing to the eventual winner, but her current form makes it tough to think she can reverse the loss to Siegemund in Stuttgart.
It was Siegemund who got the better of the break point opportunities on that occasion and I think she is more likely to have that success again. It won't always be straight-forward, but Siegemund has shown enough form to think she comes through 75, 64 in this one.
Sara Errani - 2.5 games v Anastasija Sevastova: I was a little fortunate to come out of my Sara Errani pick on Thursday unscathed after she was blown out in the first set against Francesca Schiavone. Unfortunately the latter had to retire after dropping the second set and that allowed last season's Bucharest Finalist to move through to the Quarter Final.
I can see Errani taking advantage of her good fortune in what has been a disappointing clay court season for her by her own high standards. A long losing run on the clay courts can't be simply tossed aside, but Errani has to feel she has lost to better players than Anastasija Sevastova in that time.
Sevastova has reached the Final of a tournament below the main Tour level on the clay, but she would have been 3-4 in main Tour events on this surface prior to the start of this tournament. While those two wins will have given her confidence, Sevastova is going to be playing someone who can frustrate some of the best players on the Tour especially when on the clay courts.
The concern with backing Errani will always be the poor serve which has been attacked much better by opponents this season than previously. The Italian will give up chances to break serve, but I think she can extract errors from the Sevastova game too and Errani can win this match 76, 63.
Gilles Muller - 1.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: Both of these players had to play their Second Round matches on Thursday and both Gilles Muller and Adrian Mannarino had to come through some difficult moments before recording straight sets victories.
Muller had a break advantage twice in the first set, missed a number of set points and then needed to battle through a tie-breaker to get his nose in front against Victor Estrella Burgos. Adrian Mannarino came back from 5-1 down in the first set against Sam Groth before winning that in a tie-breaker and then only losing one point on serve in the second set.
It should mean both players are confident going into this Quarter Final, but I had given Muller a significant edge in the contest before looking at the prices. It seems the layers are less convinced by Muller's advantages over Mannarino and that might be because the lefty serve is not as dominant against another southpaw.
However, I believe Muller will earn more cheap points in this one and I can't ignore the fact Mannarino dropped serve twice to Groth who is a more limited returner than Muller. Mannarino was also beaten 63, 64 by Ivo Karlovic last month on the grass and Muller is a better gras court player than the Frenchman which makes me believe he can cover a small number and ensure he has one of the four Semi Final places on offer.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Juan Monaco: Juan Monaco has admitted that any friendship has to be put on the back burner when he represents Argentina in Rubber 2 of the Davis Cup Quarter Final against Italy. He will take on Fabio Fognini in that Rubber and Monaco has admitted that some sort of revenge is on his mind as the second Singles player for Argentina.
Revenge because Monaco was actually beaten by Fognini the last time he represented Argentina in the Davis Cup in 2014. That loss came in Argentina so he has a chance for the ultimate revenge by beating Fognini in Italy, but the straight sets loss will have had an affect on his mindset for this match.
Prior to that, Monaco had won three in a row against Fognini, but it is the latter who saves some of his best tennis for when he is representing Italy. He has gone 16-6 in Singles matches in the Davis Cup while Fognini is a very impressive 12-1 on the clay courts, although the one concern has to be the poor recent form he has produced.
Some of those losses have been very poor for Fognini, but I think he will have refocused for this one now he is playing in the Davis Cup. I expect Fognini and Monaco will both offer up plenty of break points and this is bound to be a match with a lot of long rallies, but I think Fognini can use the home crowd to come through 63, 26, 64, 64.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 5.5 games v Lukas Rosol: He will forever be remembered for his stunning performance in beating Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon, but Lukas Rosol has struggled to reach those standards consistently. Rosol has been sliding down the World Rankings and he will be opening this Davis Cup Quarter Final for the Czech Republic on the hard courts where he is 5-6 in Davis Cup Rubbers.
He takes on the top French selection in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who crushed Rosol in straight sets for his nation in the Davis Cup in 2014. That match did come on the clay courts and Rosol did beat Tsonga on an indoor hard court at the back end of last season, but Tsonga is someone who has enjoyed playing Davis Cup tennis and showed considerable form at Wimbledon.
While the move in surface can be a concern, Tsonga's performance suggests he can win this opening Rubber as long as he continues to serve as big as he did. Tsonga has struggled with his own consistency through 2016 and injuries have also been an issue for him, but the Frenchman is 11-3 in indoors Davis Cup Rubbers and 6-2 on hard courts.
If Tsonga is serving big, he will give Rosol some problems as a limited returner. Tsonga's own return isn't the best, but Rosol can be very loose with the errors he produces which could give Tsonga a way into the Rosol service games. On an indoor hard court, it won't be as simple as when Tsonga beat Rosol at home two years ago, but I do think the extravagant performer can win this one 75, 67, 75, 63.
Jiri Vesely - 1.5 sets v Lucas Pouille: Both Jiri Vesely and Lucas Pouille will remember Wimbledon 2016 and they will be hoping to look back on that as being a turning point for their careers. Now they both represent their nations in an important Rubber 2 and I think Jiri Vesely can use home advantage to make sure the Czech Republic are not behind after one day of play.
This might only be the eighth Davis Cup match Vesely has played and only the fourth that will be considered a live Singles Rubber, but that is still much more experience than Pouille who makes his debut for France. The latter showed he can thrive under new conditions when reaching the Wimbledon Quarter Final, but Pouille is still to show the consistency on a week by week basis.
He has lost his two previous matches against Vesely and I think the Czech player has also made a big breakthrough in reaching the Fourth Round at Wimbledon. His previous experiences of Davis Cup plus being at home are all advantages over Pouille and a strong serving display from Vesely will make it tough to beat him.
It is Pouille who is higher Ranked going into the match, but I think Vesely can use his additional experience to good effect in this one. His serve looks big enough to cause Pouille problems and I do think the home crowd can affect the young Frenchman even if there will be an easing of that pressure if Tsonga wins Rubber 1.
Vesely's poor form on the hard courts has to be a concern, but I believe he can win this one in three or four sets.
Janko Tipsarevic + 3.5 games v Kyle Edmund: With Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray sitting out, the layers feel this Davis Cup Quarter Final is finely balanced between Serbia and Great Britain. While Great Britain have the edge in terms of World Rankings, Serbia may feel they can get the better of them if Janko Tipsarevic can lean on all the experience he has had in his career.
Tipsarevic opens for Serbia against Kyle Edmund who has lost his one previous Davis Cup Singles match, although that defeat came in the Davis Cup Final against David Goffin from a position of being up two sets. Playing away from home would have given Edmund plenty of experience, but this is going to be a lot more raucous than playing in Belgium and that is going to be difficult to deal with.
It has been three years since Tipsarevic represented Serbia, but he has gone 16-5 in clay court matches for his nation and 12-3 in matches played outdoors. Serbia will be hoping Tipsarevic can use all of those experiences to rattle Edmund, but he hasn't played a lot of tennis this year and is 0-2 in clay court matches in 2016.
Edmund's record isn't much better at 3-4, but he has won a Challenger on the surface and this is all about how he handles the Serbian crowd which can be intimidating. My feeling is that Tipsarevic is perhaps finding some of his best tennis again, although not as consistently as when he was a feature of the top ten in the World Rankings. In saying that, I think he is being given plenty of games that can be crucial in a match that might go the distance and I will back Tipsarevic to cover.
Dusan Lajovic - 5.5 games v James Ward: There is a lot of pressure on Dusan Lajovic as the highest Ranked Serbian player in this Davis Cup Quarter Final. Usually he would be behind both Novak Djokovic and Victor Troicki, but the pressure will be on Lajovic to find a couple of wins over the next three days to give Serbia a chance to progress to the Semi Final.
He is a big favourite to beat James Ward in Rubber 2 on Friday and you can't argue with that when you consider he is a much better clay court player than Ward. This is also one of the better live Rubbers that Lajovic has been given with the majority of his Davis Cup defeats coming against some of the better players on the Tour like Stan Wawrinka and Tomas Berdych.
Lajovic should absolutely respect Ward who stunned John Isner by taking a Rubber win over him last season to help Great Britain on their way to the Davis Cup victory they had in 2015. Ward also stunned Sam Querrey in a live Rubber on the clay a couple of years ago, but he has lost his only other two clay matches and recent form doesn't inspire much confidence.
Ward is now Ranked outside the top 200 in the World Rankings and he is 2-5 on the clay courts in 2016 with none of those matches coming in main Tour draws. The British player simply hasn't been winning a lot of matches recently which has to have a mental effect going into this Davis Cup Quarter Final in which Ward would not have been involved if Andy Murray and Dan Evans were available for selection.
I just don't think Ward has the game to really stay with Lajovic in the likely atmosphere he will face and I think the home favourite will come through 46, 64, 64, 62.
Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Jack Sock: Marin Cilic won the US Open just two years ago and he hasn't just enjoyed playing in the United States but he has also enjoyed playing against opponents from this nation. That will be music to the ears of the Croatian Davis Cup team as Cilic looks to improve his 32-5 record against American players and win two Rubbers to give his team a chance to move through to the Davis Cup Semi Final.
This is the first time Cilic will have played Jack Sock though and the latter is playing in just his fourth Singles Rubber in the Davis Cup. There is no doubting the improvements that Sock has made on the Tour in the last couple of years and he can be a dangerous opponent, but Davis Cup can be a different kettle of fish altogether than playing regular Tour matches.
I don't think Sock will be fazed, especially as he is benefiting from playing at home, but he doesn't have the strongest set of results on the North American hard courts. The heat has beaten him in the last two US Open events, but Sock should not be too worried about that this time, although results at Indian Wells, Miami and Cincinnati are not that inspiring either.
Cilic has to show he has moved on from blowing his Wimbledon Quarter Final against Roger Federer which he should have won in three or four sets. That would have been a big mental blow considering the tennis Cilic produced in that match, but I think he will relish playing for his country as he has throughout his career. A good serving day from the Croatian should see him hold the edge in the contest and I expect Cilic to win this one 75, 63, 46, 64.
MY PICKS: Pablo Cuevas - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Joao Sousa - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Laura Siegemund - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely - 1.5 Sets @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Janko Tipsarevic + 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 14-4, + 17.52 Units (36 Units Staked, + 48.67% Yield)
Thursday, 14 July 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (July 14th)
I feel sorry for the tournament organisers in Gstaad with the rain over there severely affecting their event to the point that First Round matches haven't been completed going into Thursday. The schedule begins very early on Thursday to try and get through all of the remaining First Round matches as well as the whole Second Round, but the weather doesn't seem to want to 'play ball' with the organisers and it could be another frustrating day for the spectators.
I was feeling some sort of frustration while watching Nicolas Almagro somehow fail to cover in his match with Paul-Henri Mathieu. It was all Almagro right up until the final two games of the final set when Mathieu somehow came through to beat him and move into the Quarter Final at his expense.
Any one who has watched tennis for a considerable number of years would tell you that Mathieu has to be one those players who is never too far from a mental collapse, but he showed some hardened play when down break point for much of the match.
That might have been a really bother if the rest of the picks hadn't been successful on Wednesday, but fortunately I didn't have a total rubbish day and that has got the week moving in a very positive direction. Now I am hoping the remaining four days can also maintain that at the very least, if not build upon the first three days, as the tournaments begin to wind down and the Davis Cup Quarter Finals are played.
Gastao Elias v Taro Daniel: It won't be often that Gastao Elias and Taro Daniel will be playing for a place in an ATP Quarter Final while facing someone like they will be in this match. Both Elias and Daniel have to believe they can win the match and move on to the Quarter Final and the layers have set it as a pick 'em contest.
I am not sure that should be the case with Elias certainly looking the more comfortable on the clay courts.
The better form might have been coming from the Daniel racquet in recent weeks with a run to the Quarter Final of a Challenger event and beating Horacio Zeballos in the First Round who won a Challenger last week. However it is Elias who has won titles at that level compared with Daniel who has been a little more inconsistent on the clay and I think Elias is going to have a little more experience on the surface which can see him overcome this opponent.
I don't think there will be much between these players, but at the pick 'em prices, I think Elias will have a little too much on the big points and come through.
Sara Errani - 3.5 games v Francesca Schiavone: Two Italian veterans meet in the Second Round in Bucharest and both Sara Errani and Francesca Schiavone should be very aware of what the other is going to want to do on the court. They have a similar style with neither player possessing the greatest serve, but instead looking to grind down their opponent in long rallies and that is where I think Errani will have the edge at this point of their careers.
It doesn't surprise me that Errani has won the last two matches these two have played against one another in 2014 and 2015. However this has been a tough season for Errani and that has seen her slip down the World Rankings, while a big surprise has to be the fact that she had lost her last five matches on clay before winning in the First Round here.
On the other hand Schiavone did win a title on the clay in South America earlier this season to put a shine on her record on clay in 2016. She had actually lost four in a row on the surface before coming through the First Round here and I imagine this is going to be a match in which there are a number of breaks of serve.
I do feel that Errani has a little more in the tank than the 36 year old Schiavone and I think that comes out in this match the further along it goes. It will be a tough match for both players who are likely close off the court, but I think Errani comes through 64, 64.
Timea Bacsinszky - 5.5 games v Mandy Minella: Only four players have made it through to the Second Round in Gstaad thanks to the awful weather which has affected the event through the first four days. All of the Second Round matches have been scheduled for Thursday, with some players having to play twice on the same day, but at least Timea Bacsinszky and Mandy Minella won't be forced into that spot.
The extra time off for Minella might be a benefit for her to challenge the Number 1 Seed in this Second Round match. She has already come through the Qualifiers and then needed three tight sets to win in the First Round so physically she could be cheering for the rain to just provide a little more rest.
Minella will know there is going to be a lot of chasing she has to get through as Bacsinszky loves playing the drop shot but also has the consistency to extend rallies and wear down opponents. The Swiss player is definitely strong on the clay courts and Minella doesn't have the same performances under her belt on the clay.
I do think the extra consistency for Bacsinszky will be key on a surface where neither player is going to have a lot of free points off the serve. We may have to wait until Friday before these players actually get a chance to get on the court, but I like Bacsinszky showing her extra class and winning this match 63, 63.
Adrian Mannarino - 2.5 games v Sam Groth: World Rankings can quickly change in the tennis world, especially lower down the Rankings as Sam Groth would be the first to tell you. It is only back in August 2015 when Groth hit a career high Ranking, but he has steadily dropped over the last eleven months and is now outside of the top 100 once again.
There isn't much to say about Groth's game outside of having a huge serve which he likes to follow in with volleys. His return game is limited but the scoreboard pressure can tell, although I don't think Adrian Mannarino is really someone who is going to be that affected by playing from behind.
The bigger issue for Mannarino is making sure his serve is not as vulnerable as it can be- he won't want to be chasing this match by offering up break points, but Mannarino did dismiss Groth without too many problems at the Queens Club last month with a strong serving display.
Mannarino had a really difficult First Round win over James Duckworth, a match decided on three tie-breakers, but he didn't serve badly. Against a limited returner like Groth, Mannarino should have more success and I think he moves into the Quarter Final with a 76, 64 win thanks to having the day off on Wednesday to get himself physically ready for this Second Round match.
Gilles Muller - 4.5 games v Victor Estrella Burgos: Victor Estrella Burgos has already upset the odds once in this tournament to get into the Second Round, but it would take a huge upset for him to get past Gilles Muller on Thursday. There is no doubting that Estrella Burgos saves his best form for the clay courts and he is making his first appearance in Newport in his career.
The grass courts have not been that kind to Estrella Burgos who is just 3-7 in his last ten matches on the surface, and his serve can be vulnerable which is hard to recover on a surface like this one.
He will be put under pressure by Gilles Muller who is not the best returner on the Tour, but who can create problems for players by serving big and making opponents feel they are playing catch up. Muller had a disappointing Wimbledon but he did reach the Quarter Final, Semi Final and Final in three other grass court events where his serve is a potent weapon.
One concern for Muller backers has to be that he has never won a match at Newport before, but this is a real opportunity for him in a draw that doesn't look the most loaded. However he did see off Estrella Burgos comfortably enough in Indian Wells earlier this season and Muller's comfort on the grass courts can lead to a 64, 63 win in this one.
Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 games v Dudi Sela: I have to say I have been impressed with the wins that both Marcos Baghdatis and Dudi Sela have put together so far on their way through to the Quarter Final. Baghdatis has only had the one match in Newport, but dismissed Brian Baker without too many concerns, while Sela's straight set wins over Lukas Lacko and defending Champion Rajeev Ram has to be respected.
Now they meet for a place in the Semi Final at an open event and I think Baghdatis has more comfort on the grass which will help him past the Israeli.
I can't imagine it will be easy because Sela has plenty of talent in his racquet, although the serve remains a vulnerable part of his game. He will certainly put Baghdatis under pressure in the rallies and will have his chances to break the serve, but Sela will have to serve much better to keep the Cypriot at bay in this one.
Sela has experience playing in a couple of previous Quarter Finals in Newport, but he has fallen short in those outings and I think Baghdatis is the better grass court player. After a few breaks of serve for both players, I believe Baghdatis wins enough of the big points to come through 75, 64 in this one.
MY PICKS: Gastao Elias @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Timea Bacsinszky - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Adrian Mannarino - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-3, + 10.78 Units (24 Units Staked, + 44.92% Yield)
I was feeling some sort of frustration while watching Nicolas Almagro somehow fail to cover in his match with Paul-Henri Mathieu. It was all Almagro right up until the final two games of the final set when Mathieu somehow came through to beat him and move into the Quarter Final at his expense.
Any one who has watched tennis for a considerable number of years would tell you that Mathieu has to be one those players who is never too far from a mental collapse, but he showed some hardened play when down break point for much of the match.
That might have been a really bother if the rest of the picks hadn't been successful on Wednesday, but fortunately I didn't have a total rubbish day and that has got the week moving in a very positive direction. Now I am hoping the remaining four days can also maintain that at the very least, if not build upon the first three days, as the tournaments begin to wind down and the Davis Cup Quarter Finals are played.
Gastao Elias v Taro Daniel: It won't be often that Gastao Elias and Taro Daniel will be playing for a place in an ATP Quarter Final while facing someone like they will be in this match. Both Elias and Daniel have to believe they can win the match and move on to the Quarter Final and the layers have set it as a pick 'em contest.
I am not sure that should be the case with Elias certainly looking the more comfortable on the clay courts.
The better form might have been coming from the Daniel racquet in recent weeks with a run to the Quarter Final of a Challenger event and beating Horacio Zeballos in the First Round who won a Challenger last week. However it is Elias who has won titles at that level compared with Daniel who has been a little more inconsistent on the clay and I think Elias is going to have a little more experience on the surface which can see him overcome this opponent.
I don't think there will be much between these players, but at the pick 'em prices, I think Elias will have a little too much on the big points and come through.
Sara Errani - 3.5 games v Francesca Schiavone: Two Italian veterans meet in the Second Round in Bucharest and both Sara Errani and Francesca Schiavone should be very aware of what the other is going to want to do on the court. They have a similar style with neither player possessing the greatest serve, but instead looking to grind down their opponent in long rallies and that is where I think Errani will have the edge at this point of their careers.
It doesn't surprise me that Errani has won the last two matches these two have played against one another in 2014 and 2015. However this has been a tough season for Errani and that has seen her slip down the World Rankings, while a big surprise has to be the fact that she had lost her last five matches on clay before winning in the First Round here.
On the other hand Schiavone did win a title on the clay in South America earlier this season to put a shine on her record on clay in 2016. She had actually lost four in a row on the surface before coming through the First Round here and I imagine this is going to be a match in which there are a number of breaks of serve.
I do feel that Errani has a little more in the tank than the 36 year old Schiavone and I think that comes out in this match the further along it goes. It will be a tough match for both players who are likely close off the court, but I think Errani comes through 64, 64.
Timea Bacsinszky - 5.5 games v Mandy Minella: Only four players have made it through to the Second Round in Gstaad thanks to the awful weather which has affected the event through the first four days. All of the Second Round matches have been scheduled for Thursday, with some players having to play twice on the same day, but at least Timea Bacsinszky and Mandy Minella won't be forced into that spot.
The extra time off for Minella might be a benefit for her to challenge the Number 1 Seed in this Second Round match. She has already come through the Qualifiers and then needed three tight sets to win in the First Round so physically she could be cheering for the rain to just provide a little more rest.
Minella will know there is going to be a lot of chasing she has to get through as Bacsinszky loves playing the drop shot but also has the consistency to extend rallies and wear down opponents. The Swiss player is definitely strong on the clay courts and Minella doesn't have the same performances under her belt on the clay.
I do think the extra consistency for Bacsinszky will be key on a surface where neither player is going to have a lot of free points off the serve. We may have to wait until Friday before these players actually get a chance to get on the court, but I like Bacsinszky showing her extra class and winning this match 63, 63.
Adrian Mannarino - 2.5 games v Sam Groth: World Rankings can quickly change in the tennis world, especially lower down the Rankings as Sam Groth would be the first to tell you. It is only back in August 2015 when Groth hit a career high Ranking, but he has steadily dropped over the last eleven months and is now outside of the top 100 once again.
There isn't much to say about Groth's game outside of having a huge serve which he likes to follow in with volleys. His return game is limited but the scoreboard pressure can tell, although I don't think Adrian Mannarino is really someone who is going to be that affected by playing from behind.
The bigger issue for Mannarino is making sure his serve is not as vulnerable as it can be- he won't want to be chasing this match by offering up break points, but Mannarino did dismiss Groth without too many problems at the Queens Club last month with a strong serving display.
Mannarino had a really difficult First Round win over James Duckworth, a match decided on three tie-breakers, but he didn't serve badly. Against a limited returner like Groth, Mannarino should have more success and I think he moves into the Quarter Final with a 76, 64 win thanks to having the day off on Wednesday to get himself physically ready for this Second Round match.
Gilles Muller - 4.5 games v Victor Estrella Burgos: Victor Estrella Burgos has already upset the odds once in this tournament to get into the Second Round, but it would take a huge upset for him to get past Gilles Muller on Thursday. There is no doubting that Estrella Burgos saves his best form for the clay courts and he is making his first appearance in Newport in his career.
The grass courts have not been that kind to Estrella Burgos who is just 3-7 in his last ten matches on the surface, and his serve can be vulnerable which is hard to recover on a surface like this one.
He will be put under pressure by Gilles Muller who is not the best returner on the Tour, but who can create problems for players by serving big and making opponents feel they are playing catch up. Muller had a disappointing Wimbledon but he did reach the Quarter Final, Semi Final and Final in three other grass court events where his serve is a potent weapon.
One concern for Muller backers has to be that he has never won a match at Newport before, but this is a real opportunity for him in a draw that doesn't look the most loaded. However he did see off Estrella Burgos comfortably enough in Indian Wells earlier this season and Muller's comfort on the grass courts can lead to a 64, 63 win in this one.
Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 games v Dudi Sela: I have to say I have been impressed with the wins that both Marcos Baghdatis and Dudi Sela have put together so far on their way through to the Quarter Final. Baghdatis has only had the one match in Newport, but dismissed Brian Baker without too many concerns, while Sela's straight set wins over Lukas Lacko and defending Champion Rajeev Ram has to be respected.
Now they meet for a place in the Semi Final at an open event and I think Baghdatis has more comfort on the grass which will help him past the Israeli.
I can't imagine it will be easy because Sela has plenty of talent in his racquet, although the serve remains a vulnerable part of his game. He will certainly put Baghdatis under pressure in the rallies and will have his chances to break the serve, but Sela will have to serve much better to keep the Cypriot at bay in this one.
Sela has experience playing in a couple of previous Quarter Finals in Newport, but he has fallen short in those outings and I think Baghdatis is the better grass court player. After a few breaks of serve for both players, I believe Baghdatis wins enough of the big points to come through 75, 64 in this one.
MY PICKS: Gastao Elias @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Timea Bacsinszky - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Adrian Mannarino - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-3, + 10.78 Units (24 Units Staked, + 44.92% Yield)
Monday, 11 July 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (July 11th)
This is an Olympic season for the tennis Tour which means the week after Wimbledon has not been reserved for one last grass court event on the ATP Tour and then the Davis Cup Quarter Finals. While those two events are still taking place, this is also a busy week on the Tour with events in Hamburg and Bastad on the ATP Tour and in Bucharest and Gstaad on the WTA Tour.
It will also be a slightly different run up to the US Open with the Canadian Masters event being played in July before some of the players make a trip to Rio for the Olympic Games. The Cincinnati Masters will then be played in August as usual before the final Grand Slam of the season begins in New York.
Wimbledon was an interesting tournament with a couple of really good quality and exciting matches and the two winners, Serena Williams and Andy Murray, were deserving of their prizes. Both players had reached the Final of the previous two Grand Slam events and fallen short so both would have been glad to have got over the line.
For Serena Williams the target has now shifted to overtaking Margaret Court's 24 Grand Slams, while Andy Murray might just have cemented himself as the best British player of all time with his third Slam and second title at Wimbledon. I like Murray and I think he will be appreciated even more once he concludes his career and the huge vacuum his absence will leave on British tennis, but I am not sure I buy the suggestions he should be Knighted.
I know earning that recognition has become a little less exclusive than it used to be, but I don't think sportsmen or women should be able to earn that for being successful alone and certainly not at 29 years old. That might just be me though, but I was never behind the 'Sir David Beckham' suggestions a couple of years ago and I am not convinced 'Sir Andy Murray' should be opening Wimbledon next season either.
Usually the week after Wimbledon is something of a relaxed one for the tennis picks simply because there aren't any matches being played. However that has changed this week and I should have a few picks over the course of the tournaments being played as long as they are matches that I feel I have a decent read of.
Last week was a strong one for the picks from Wimbledon, but the reason remains a disappointing one to this point with less than half the year to go.
Vania King - 3.5 games v Paula Kania: A year of injury issues dropped Vania King outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings, but she could see an improvement in that Ranking over the coming weeks. It is important that the American starts putting some wins together in main Tour events she is playing in and she is in a decent portion of the draw in Bucharest which could see a run to the Semi Final if King can win this match.
She won't want to look too far into the week and the draw ahead as King gets set to face Paula Kania for the second time this season. The first match was also on the clay courts and King only dropped one game in that one, but this is going to be a lot closer or so you would imagine.
That match was Kania's first on the clay courts this season, but her record over the last three years on this surface is only 11-19. A lot of her defeats have come in straight-forward fashion in that time, but she does have more to her game than what she showed in the earlier defeat to King.
One issue that might be a problem for Kania to solve is the defensive work King gets through around the court. That can help her extract errors from the Kania game, although it is hard to imagine King not having some issues holding serve which is a weak part of her own game. King dominated behind her first serve when they played each other in Prague, but I think Kania can help make this closer by getting more joy in the return games, although ultimately I am backing the American to come through with a 64, 64 win.
Dudi Sela v Lukas Lacko: Wimbledon might have drawn to a close on Sunday, but that doesn't mean the end of the grass court season. For a long time now, Newport has been played the week after the Wimbledon Final and remains the last stop for grass on the Tour.
That isn't to say a deep field attends and this is a tournament that has been won by some less familiar names in recent years. Rajeev Ram is the defending Champion and has won the title here twice, while John Isner is another multiple time winner.
A chance to pick up some important Ranking points make this is an important match for Dudi Sela and Lukas Lacko and the winner might feel they can perhaps have a surprising run. When the draw was made, Sela began as a slight underdog, but I think the markets are beginning to adjust correctly as I like the Israeli to win this First Round match and he is now going into it as the favourite.
Sela might have had a very early defeat at Wimbledon, but he did win three matches on the grass in Nottingham. His serve is vulnerable which makes it tough for him on a surface where one break can lose you a set, but Sela has a strong record against Lacko including beating him on a grass court last season.
It was a good run for Lacko at Wimbledon where he reached the Third Round after coming through the Qualifiers, but he hasn't had a lot of success in main Tour matches on this surface. 2016 in general has been disappointing for Lacko who throws in poor service games too often and that has resulted in him struggling to get back inside the top 100 of the World Rankings.
This match might come down to which of the players is able to overcome difficulties on serve the best in the games where they face break points. However you have to think Sela holds the mental edge which can help in those moments when the big points will be contested and I will back him to move through to the Second Round.
MY PICKS: Vania King - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dudi Sela @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
It will also be a slightly different run up to the US Open with the Canadian Masters event being played in July before some of the players make a trip to Rio for the Olympic Games. The Cincinnati Masters will then be played in August as usual before the final Grand Slam of the season begins in New York.
Wimbledon was an interesting tournament with a couple of really good quality and exciting matches and the two winners, Serena Williams and Andy Murray, were deserving of their prizes. Both players had reached the Final of the previous two Grand Slam events and fallen short so both would have been glad to have got over the line.
For Serena Williams the target has now shifted to overtaking Margaret Court's 24 Grand Slams, while Andy Murray might just have cemented himself as the best British player of all time with his third Slam and second title at Wimbledon. I like Murray and I think he will be appreciated even more once he concludes his career and the huge vacuum his absence will leave on British tennis, but I am not sure I buy the suggestions he should be Knighted.
I know earning that recognition has become a little less exclusive than it used to be, but I don't think sportsmen or women should be able to earn that for being successful alone and certainly not at 29 years old. That might just be me though, but I was never behind the 'Sir David Beckham' suggestions a couple of years ago and I am not convinced 'Sir Andy Murray' should be opening Wimbledon next season either.
Usually the week after Wimbledon is something of a relaxed one for the tennis picks simply because there aren't any matches being played. However that has changed this week and I should have a few picks over the course of the tournaments being played as long as they are matches that I feel I have a decent read of.
Last week was a strong one for the picks from Wimbledon, but the reason remains a disappointing one to this point with less than half the year to go.
Vania King - 3.5 games v Paula Kania: A year of injury issues dropped Vania King outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings, but she could see an improvement in that Ranking over the coming weeks. It is important that the American starts putting some wins together in main Tour events she is playing in and she is in a decent portion of the draw in Bucharest which could see a run to the Semi Final if King can win this match.
She won't want to look too far into the week and the draw ahead as King gets set to face Paula Kania for the second time this season. The first match was also on the clay courts and King only dropped one game in that one, but this is going to be a lot closer or so you would imagine.
That match was Kania's first on the clay courts this season, but her record over the last three years on this surface is only 11-19. A lot of her defeats have come in straight-forward fashion in that time, but she does have more to her game than what she showed in the earlier defeat to King.
One issue that might be a problem for Kania to solve is the defensive work King gets through around the court. That can help her extract errors from the Kania game, although it is hard to imagine King not having some issues holding serve which is a weak part of her own game. King dominated behind her first serve when they played each other in Prague, but I think Kania can help make this closer by getting more joy in the return games, although ultimately I am backing the American to come through with a 64, 64 win.
Dudi Sela v Lukas Lacko: Wimbledon might have drawn to a close on Sunday, but that doesn't mean the end of the grass court season. For a long time now, Newport has been played the week after the Wimbledon Final and remains the last stop for grass on the Tour.
That isn't to say a deep field attends and this is a tournament that has been won by some less familiar names in recent years. Rajeev Ram is the defending Champion and has won the title here twice, while John Isner is another multiple time winner.
A chance to pick up some important Ranking points make this is an important match for Dudi Sela and Lukas Lacko and the winner might feel they can perhaps have a surprising run. When the draw was made, Sela began as a slight underdog, but I think the markets are beginning to adjust correctly as I like the Israeli to win this First Round match and he is now going into it as the favourite.
Sela might have had a very early defeat at Wimbledon, but he did win three matches on the grass in Nottingham. His serve is vulnerable which makes it tough for him on a surface where one break can lose you a set, but Sela has a strong record against Lacko including beating him on a grass court last season.
It was a good run for Lacko at Wimbledon where he reached the Third Round after coming through the Qualifiers, but he hasn't had a lot of success in main Tour matches on this surface. 2016 in general has been disappointing for Lacko who throws in poor service games too often and that has resulted in him struggling to get back inside the top 100 of the World Rankings.
This match might come down to which of the players is able to overcome difficulties on serve the best in the games where they face break points. However you have to think Sela holds the mental edge which can help in those moments when the big points will be contested and I will back him to move through to the Second Round.
MY PICKS: Vania King - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dudi Sela @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Season 2016: - 35.10 Units (1035 Units Staked, - 3.39% Yield)
Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Saturday, 23 April 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (April 23rd)
I couldn't really have asked for much more from the tennis picks on Friday than what I got- there were five picks made, and all five came in as winners.
That has put the week in a position to recover from the poor Monte Carlo tournament, but there are still a couple of days to go to wind up the week.
On Saturday it is the Semi Finals being played in the four tournaments that have been going on this week and I am looking to kick on from Friday to underline the successful week.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Laura Siegemund: This has been a very good week for Laura Siegemund who is playing in one of the home tournaments she is able to compete at. Siegemund has come through three Qualifiers and three main draw matches and has beaten the likes of Simona Halep and Roberta Vinci without dropping a set this week.
The German will look for another big scalp in this Semi Final and will have to be at her best to see off Agnieszka Radwanska who had an impressive win on Friday herself. Radwanska's was the last match on court so it was important for her to get through in straight sets and she will look to bamboozle Siegemund who only won one game in her only other appearance here.
I will admit that I am not always a fan of backing someone like Radwanska to cover a big spread like this one because of her serve being a weakness and thus easier to break. However she has the return game and movement around the court to force mistakes from Siegemund although the latter will feel she has gotten used to that style with the way she beat Halep and Vinci already this week.
I do think Radwanska is in the best form of those three players mentioned so Siegemund will have to be even better and I think it is the former who will win enough of the big points to come through 75, 63.
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 games v Lucas Pouille: This has been the second successful week Federico Delbonis is having on a European clay court and that will bode well for him in the coming weeks. It will give Delbonis every chance to improve his World Ranking and the Argentinian will be looking for another title having won in Casablanca a couple of weeks ago.
This looks a Semi Final he can win against the Frenchman Lucas Pouille who has had a successful week already. His win over Paolo Lorenzi might have taken something out of the tank though as Pouille as he had to come back from a set down to win in three tight sets.
While that was an impressive win from behind, Pouille will also know he will have to be better if he is going to compete with Delbonis who has been dismissing many an opponent on this surface over the last three weeks. The lefty has a decent serve which sets up his play and he has also been returning effectively and creating plenty of break points which makes him a dangerous opponent.
I think it won't be an easy match for Delbonis, but I do think he is the better player and can come through with an impressive 64, 64 win and a place in the Final on Sunday.
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: A battle between two Spaniards will determine the second Finalist in Bucharest and it is Fernando Verdasco who has dominated the head to head. Verdasco leads Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 6-3 on the head to head, but it was the latter who won their most recent match last season and he is considerably higher in the World Rankings.
Even with that in mind, I think the Garcia-Lopez serve is one that doesn't particularly have a lot of bite and it is a shot that Verdasco should be able to have some success against. While Garcia-Lopez has had success on the surface, I do think Verdasco is capable of having a number of break points in this one if he continues on the positive trend he has shown so far this week.
The win over Robin Haase was the kind of match that Verdasco has lost too often, but he battled through the first set after giving up his break of serve before looking after serve in the second set and breaking late to take the match. Those are the kinds of wins that will help Verdasco get back up the World Rankings and I do think his performances this week suggests he will have a little too much for Garcia-Lopez.
Verdasco has to stay focused when serving to not give Garcia-Lopez any encouragement and that focus should help him come through with a 76, 64 win in this one.
Benoit Paire + 4.5 games v Kei Nishikori: Benoit Paire is not someone I would be wanting to back as a favourite too often these days, but he looks to be getting plenty of games in this one against Kei Nishikori. The last two times these players have met has seen Paire come out victorious both times and the eye test suggests this is too many games being asked of the higher Ranked player to overcome.
That is not to say that Paire isn't capable of throwing in an absolute stinker of a match and being beaten 2 and 2 in this one. However he seems to enjoy the match up with Nishikori and this is a player that has performed well on the clay courts of Monte Carlo and here in Barcelona.
Nishikori is a former winner here so deserves all the respect he is being given while he is yet to drop a set this week. However he did have to save four set points against Alexandr Dolgopolov on Friday which may have turned that match completely, and Nishikori will have to be at his best to beat Paire in this Semi Final.
I will say it is hard to back Paire with a lot of confidence, but he will be a tough out for Nishikori if he is serving well and I will back him to cover with this number of games behind him, although I am not so convinced he wins the match.
MY PICKS: Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Benoit Paire + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 10-4, + 9.34 Units (28 Units Staked, + 33.36% Yield)
That has put the week in a position to recover from the poor Monte Carlo tournament, but there are still a couple of days to go to wind up the week.
On Saturday it is the Semi Finals being played in the four tournaments that have been going on this week and I am looking to kick on from Friday to underline the successful week.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Laura Siegemund: This has been a very good week for Laura Siegemund who is playing in one of the home tournaments she is able to compete at. Siegemund has come through three Qualifiers and three main draw matches and has beaten the likes of Simona Halep and Roberta Vinci without dropping a set this week.
The German will look for another big scalp in this Semi Final and will have to be at her best to see off Agnieszka Radwanska who had an impressive win on Friday herself. Radwanska's was the last match on court so it was important for her to get through in straight sets and she will look to bamboozle Siegemund who only won one game in her only other appearance here.
I will admit that I am not always a fan of backing someone like Radwanska to cover a big spread like this one because of her serve being a weakness and thus easier to break. However she has the return game and movement around the court to force mistakes from Siegemund although the latter will feel she has gotten used to that style with the way she beat Halep and Vinci already this week.
I do think Radwanska is in the best form of those three players mentioned so Siegemund will have to be even better and I think it is the former who will win enough of the big points to come through 75, 63.
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 games v Lucas Pouille: This has been the second successful week Federico Delbonis is having on a European clay court and that will bode well for him in the coming weeks. It will give Delbonis every chance to improve his World Ranking and the Argentinian will be looking for another title having won in Casablanca a couple of weeks ago.
This looks a Semi Final he can win against the Frenchman Lucas Pouille who has had a successful week already. His win over Paolo Lorenzi might have taken something out of the tank though as Pouille as he had to come back from a set down to win in three tight sets.
While that was an impressive win from behind, Pouille will also know he will have to be better if he is going to compete with Delbonis who has been dismissing many an opponent on this surface over the last three weeks. The lefty has a decent serve which sets up his play and he has also been returning effectively and creating plenty of break points which makes him a dangerous opponent.
I think it won't be an easy match for Delbonis, but I do think he is the better player and can come through with an impressive 64, 64 win and a place in the Final on Sunday.
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: A battle between two Spaniards will determine the second Finalist in Bucharest and it is Fernando Verdasco who has dominated the head to head. Verdasco leads Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 6-3 on the head to head, but it was the latter who won their most recent match last season and he is considerably higher in the World Rankings.
Even with that in mind, I think the Garcia-Lopez serve is one that doesn't particularly have a lot of bite and it is a shot that Verdasco should be able to have some success against. While Garcia-Lopez has had success on the surface, I do think Verdasco is capable of having a number of break points in this one if he continues on the positive trend he has shown so far this week.
The win over Robin Haase was the kind of match that Verdasco has lost too often, but he battled through the first set after giving up his break of serve before looking after serve in the second set and breaking late to take the match. Those are the kinds of wins that will help Verdasco get back up the World Rankings and I do think his performances this week suggests he will have a little too much for Garcia-Lopez.
Verdasco has to stay focused when serving to not give Garcia-Lopez any encouragement and that focus should help him come through with a 76, 64 win in this one.
Benoit Paire + 4.5 games v Kei Nishikori: Benoit Paire is not someone I would be wanting to back as a favourite too often these days, but he looks to be getting plenty of games in this one against Kei Nishikori. The last two times these players have met has seen Paire come out victorious both times and the eye test suggests this is too many games being asked of the higher Ranked player to overcome.
That is not to say that Paire isn't capable of throwing in an absolute stinker of a match and being beaten 2 and 2 in this one. However he seems to enjoy the match up with Nishikori and this is a player that has performed well on the clay courts of Monte Carlo and here in Barcelona.
Nishikori is a former winner here so deserves all the respect he is being given while he is yet to drop a set this week. However he did have to save four set points against Alexandr Dolgopolov on Friday which may have turned that match completely, and Nishikori will have to be at his best to beat Paire in this Semi Final.
I will say it is hard to back Paire with a lot of confidence, but he will be a tough out for Nishikori if he is serving well and I will back him to cover with this number of games behind him, although I am not so convinced he wins the match.
MY PICKS: Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Benoit Paire + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 10-4, + 9.34 Units (28 Units Staked, + 33.36% Yield)
Thursday, 21 April 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (April 22nd)
The tournaments in Barcelona, Bucharest, Istanbul and Stuttgart have all reached the Quarter Finals on Friday and there are plenty of matches that will be played through the day.
A solid Thursday from Bucharest has turned this week back into a positive, but there is still some work to do to make sure this is a successful week for the picks. Friday's Quarter Finals are interesting and I will have four picks from the matches to be played in Bucharest and Barcelona.
Federico Delbonis - 4.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: This has already been a good week for Marco Cecchinato who has moved into the Quarter Final by winning back to back matches without dropping a set. He has not always produced his best at this level and there is no doubting the level has picked up when the Italian meets Federico Delbonis in the Quarter Final.
Delbonis didn't have the best time in Monte Carlo where he was beaten in his first match, but he has won a title in Casablanca and is at his best on the clay courts. His win over Illya Marchenko in the Second Round was expected, but Delbonis made it a much easier match than most would have imagined and that should mean the confidence is flowing through him.
He will have to be returning well with Cecchinato getting more out of his first serve than I thought he would in the last match against Damir Dzumhur. However this is a better returner he is facing and Delbonis is also a lefty which can be troubling for players to face when they are not quite sure where to attack those players.
Dzumhur did earn plenty of break points which will encourage Delbonis in this Quarter Final and I do think the Argentinian player is the better one on the clay courts. He can be let down by his serve at times, but the first serve should be a bigger weapon than the one Cecchinato brings onto the court and I like Delbonis to work his way to a 64, 63 win.
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Robin Haase: It is Robin Haase that has won three of the four matches against Fernando Verdasco but I think the latter has looked good this week and can get the better of the Dutchman in this one.
This is one of those matches where I am surprised when having a quick look at the World Rankings- I have no idea how Robin Haase is above Fernando Verdasco in the Rankings if I am being perfectly honest.
The clay courts are considered Haase's favourite surface, but he has had a difficult time on these courts as much as others in recent seasons. He was dismissed in ridiculously one sided fashion by Damir Dzumhur in Monte Carlo and Haase is going to have to be at his best to take on Verdasco who is playing quite well as he looks to turn around the negative trend in his own World Ranking.
Haase can produce some very strong tennis as he showed in beating the Number 1 Seeded Bernard Tomic, but he is so inconsistent. The serve has to be working and you will be able to see from early on whether Haase is in the mood for a fight on Friday, but ultimately I don't think it will be enough for him to beat Verdasco yet again.
If Verdasco can just hang with him in the early moments of this match, I think he will be able to come through with a 64, 64 win and a place in the Semi Final.
Fabio Fognini + 5.5 games v Rafael Nadal: Winning the Monte Carlo Masters, a tournament that had all of the top names in action, has to be a big boost for Rafael Nadal as he tries to reclaim his place at the top of men's tennis. Backing up that win by winning in Barcelona will have many believing he can win another French Open next month, but Nadal looks to be too big a favourite in this one.
Recent matches with Fabio Fognini have been far from easy for Nadal and the Italian has been in decent nick after dropping the first set to Mikhail Youzhny. Since dropping that set, Fognini has won all four sets he has played and has dropped just six games which suggests he is over the injury that saw him miss both Indian Wells and Miami.
Fognini also lost heavily to Paolo Lorenzi in Monte Carlo, but the wins this week will have given him some confidence. The Italian also seems to love playing Nadal in recent matches and he did beat him twice on the clay last season, although Fognini was beaten in another match.
There is no doubt that Fognini can be hard to trust at times when he loses focus and clearly starts tanking games and sets, but I think he relishes playing Nadal. That should fuel his motivation and this looks a lot of games for Fognini to be receiving in this one and I will back him to keep the match competitive, although I expect Nadal to find his way to the Semi Final.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: Having already beaten Andrey Kuznetsov in two previous matches in Barcelona, I am looking for Philipp Kohlschreiber to make it a hat-trick in the final Quarter Final of the day. The German should still be the better clay court player of the two even if he looks to be slipping a little these days and I like Kohlschreiber's chances of moving into the Semi Final.
Both players have had impressive wins this week, but my feeling is that Kohlschreiber has definitely had the tougher tests that he has dealt with. As much as I have to respect Kuznetsov for beating the likes of Stan Wawrinka this season, the Russian is a player that has yet to really have a lot of success on the clay courts at this level.
Without the pace in the court, I think Kuznetsov is more susceptible to making a few errors while his serve is not the biggest on the Tour and can be attacked on the clay. Someone like Kohlschreiber should be able to have success on the return and he will be tough to knock off if he is serving well which is a shot that is a little more erratic these days.
Even so, Kohlschreiber's best moments in the last couple of years have come on the clay courts and I think he will be able to fashion more of the break point chances. After a tight first set I can see Kohlschreiber work through for a 76, 64 win in this one.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: There are some players on the Tour that can bamboozle opponents and I have a feeling Agnieszka Radwanska's dominance of Karolina Pliskova could be one such case.
You would think the Pliskova serve and added power would be enough to take Radwanska out of her comfort zone, but it does seem the latter is able to make enough balls back in play to frustrate Pliskova. That leads to errors and has also led to Radwanska winning all five previous matches with the last four being very comfortable.
In fact Radwanska is yet to lose a set to Pliskova and I think the clay courts will favour her game over Pliskova who would like to shorten the points and play first strike tennis. On the clay courts I expect Radwanska will force Pliskova to play too many balls and should be able to get the better of her in this one.
She would have covered this number of games in the last four matches against Pliskova and having a match on the clay under her belt should aid Radwanska. I think she is the better player on this surface anyway and Pliskova trying to get over the mental hurdle of facing this opponent may be too difficult and I think Radwanska can come through with a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Federico Delbonis - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini + 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-4, + 0.32 Units (18 Units Staked, + 1.78% Yield)
A solid Thursday from Bucharest has turned this week back into a positive, but there is still some work to do to make sure this is a successful week for the picks. Friday's Quarter Finals are interesting and I will have four picks from the matches to be played in Bucharest and Barcelona.
Federico Delbonis - 4.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: This has already been a good week for Marco Cecchinato who has moved into the Quarter Final by winning back to back matches without dropping a set. He has not always produced his best at this level and there is no doubting the level has picked up when the Italian meets Federico Delbonis in the Quarter Final.
Delbonis didn't have the best time in Monte Carlo where he was beaten in his first match, but he has won a title in Casablanca and is at his best on the clay courts. His win over Illya Marchenko in the Second Round was expected, but Delbonis made it a much easier match than most would have imagined and that should mean the confidence is flowing through him.
He will have to be returning well with Cecchinato getting more out of his first serve than I thought he would in the last match against Damir Dzumhur. However this is a better returner he is facing and Delbonis is also a lefty which can be troubling for players to face when they are not quite sure where to attack those players.
Dzumhur did earn plenty of break points which will encourage Delbonis in this Quarter Final and I do think the Argentinian player is the better one on the clay courts. He can be let down by his serve at times, but the first serve should be a bigger weapon than the one Cecchinato brings onto the court and I like Delbonis to work his way to a 64, 63 win.
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Robin Haase: It is Robin Haase that has won three of the four matches against Fernando Verdasco but I think the latter has looked good this week and can get the better of the Dutchman in this one.
This is one of those matches where I am surprised when having a quick look at the World Rankings- I have no idea how Robin Haase is above Fernando Verdasco in the Rankings if I am being perfectly honest.
The clay courts are considered Haase's favourite surface, but he has had a difficult time on these courts as much as others in recent seasons. He was dismissed in ridiculously one sided fashion by Damir Dzumhur in Monte Carlo and Haase is going to have to be at his best to take on Verdasco who is playing quite well as he looks to turn around the negative trend in his own World Ranking.
Haase can produce some very strong tennis as he showed in beating the Number 1 Seeded Bernard Tomic, but he is so inconsistent. The serve has to be working and you will be able to see from early on whether Haase is in the mood for a fight on Friday, but ultimately I don't think it will be enough for him to beat Verdasco yet again.
If Verdasco can just hang with him in the early moments of this match, I think he will be able to come through with a 64, 64 win and a place in the Semi Final.
Fabio Fognini + 5.5 games v Rafael Nadal: Winning the Monte Carlo Masters, a tournament that had all of the top names in action, has to be a big boost for Rafael Nadal as he tries to reclaim his place at the top of men's tennis. Backing up that win by winning in Barcelona will have many believing he can win another French Open next month, but Nadal looks to be too big a favourite in this one.
Recent matches with Fabio Fognini have been far from easy for Nadal and the Italian has been in decent nick after dropping the first set to Mikhail Youzhny. Since dropping that set, Fognini has won all four sets he has played and has dropped just six games which suggests he is over the injury that saw him miss both Indian Wells and Miami.
Fognini also lost heavily to Paolo Lorenzi in Monte Carlo, but the wins this week will have given him some confidence. The Italian also seems to love playing Nadal in recent matches and he did beat him twice on the clay last season, although Fognini was beaten in another match.
There is no doubt that Fognini can be hard to trust at times when he loses focus and clearly starts tanking games and sets, but I think he relishes playing Nadal. That should fuel his motivation and this looks a lot of games for Fognini to be receiving in this one and I will back him to keep the match competitive, although I expect Nadal to find his way to the Semi Final.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: Having already beaten Andrey Kuznetsov in two previous matches in Barcelona, I am looking for Philipp Kohlschreiber to make it a hat-trick in the final Quarter Final of the day. The German should still be the better clay court player of the two even if he looks to be slipping a little these days and I like Kohlschreiber's chances of moving into the Semi Final.
Both players have had impressive wins this week, but my feeling is that Kohlschreiber has definitely had the tougher tests that he has dealt with. As much as I have to respect Kuznetsov for beating the likes of Stan Wawrinka this season, the Russian is a player that has yet to really have a lot of success on the clay courts at this level.
Without the pace in the court, I think Kuznetsov is more susceptible to making a few errors while his serve is not the biggest on the Tour and can be attacked on the clay. Someone like Kohlschreiber should be able to have success on the return and he will be tough to knock off if he is serving well which is a shot that is a little more erratic these days.
Even so, Kohlschreiber's best moments in the last couple of years have come on the clay courts and I think he will be able to fashion more of the break point chances. After a tight first set I can see Kohlschreiber work through for a 76, 64 win in this one.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: There are some players on the Tour that can bamboozle opponents and I have a feeling Agnieszka Radwanska's dominance of Karolina Pliskova could be one such case.
You would think the Pliskova serve and added power would be enough to take Radwanska out of her comfort zone, but it does seem the latter is able to make enough balls back in play to frustrate Pliskova. That leads to errors and has also led to Radwanska winning all five previous matches with the last four being very comfortable.
In fact Radwanska is yet to lose a set to Pliskova and I think the clay courts will favour her game over Pliskova who would like to shorten the points and play first strike tennis. On the clay courts I expect Radwanska will force Pliskova to play too many balls and should be able to get the better of her in this one.
She would have covered this number of games in the last four matches against Pliskova and having a match on the clay under her belt should aid Radwanska. I think she is the better player on this surface anyway and Pliskova trying to get over the mental hurdle of facing this opponent may be too difficult and I think Radwanska can come through with a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Federico Delbonis - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini + 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-4, + 0.32 Units (18 Units Staked, + 1.78% Yield)
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