Tennis Picks 2023 (July 20th)

There is no doubting that it was a much more positive day for the Tennis Picks, but it feels like some meat was left on the table after a couple of late letdowns.

On another day Lorenzo Musetti would have been able to serve out his strong position in the final set, which would have been enough for the cover, while Zizou Bergs missed out by a couple of games after allowing himself to gift away the second set.

Worst was the Yulia Putintseva collapse in the second set against Claire Liu.

She was a set down after blowing an early break, but it is hard to understand what happened to Putintseva in the second set considering she had moved into a commanding 5-0 lead and with 15/40 on the Liu serve.

Somehow she lost the next six games in a row and missed FIVE Set Points in that run and even the late break of serve to force a Tie-Breaker only prolonged her pain with another two Set Points missed in that Breaker too.

So while there was a positive return on the day, it does feel like one or two of those other selections could have easily swung my way and it might have completely erased the really poor Tuesady.

Wimbledon might be over, but the sport was still making headlines this week, although both for negative reasons.

Controversy in Hungary on the court was the main source of conversation for the WTA players on social media, but the news of the latest allegation against Alexander Zverev is extremely disturbing. This could be a story that really explodes in the coming weeks, especially if the Penalty Order in Germany is given the go-ahead and with big tournaments coming up bringing with it more media attention.

The ATP whiffed on the previous allegations and how to deal with players who face such issues, but they will be under more pressure if this Penalty Order is signed.

After seeing a new star breakthrough earlier this month, this is a much more challenging time for the leaders on the Tour.

Alexander Zverev is expected to play his Second Round match in Bastad on Thursday, but it is a developing situation off the court and you have to believe it is going to have an impact on his performance on the court against a competent clay court player.

Personally I am steering clear having seen how personal matters can affect players and their performances, while there are a plenty of matches that look quite difficult to call around the tournaments being played.

Any selections from the Newport Quarter Final matches set for Thursday will be added to this thread when the markets are released, but the only two Picks on the day will both come from Second Round action in Bastad.

Casper Ruud - 5.5 games v Alexander Shevchenko: Two years ago Casper Ruud was able to run through three clay court tournaments in a row and win titles in all three events, but last season he was beaten in his opening match in Bastad as he looked to defend this title.

It didn't bother him for too long with Casper Ruud winning the next week in Gstaad, but the two time defending Champion in that tournament in Switzerland has chosen to play in Bastad instead this week.

There is still an opportunity for Casper Ruud to take in three straight summer clay court events, although the likelihood is he will play Hamburg and then move to North America to begin preparation for the US Open.

Motivation will still be there to have a good clay court season after another tough month on the grass and Casper Ruud looks to have been given an ideal opponent in this Second Round match.

Alexander Shevchenko has won a match here this week, so has to be respected, but the World Number 96 has had mixed clay court experiences. He does hold a 3-4 record on the surface against top 50 Ranked opponents this season, but Shevchenko has found himself well beaten by the likes of Alex De Minaur, Daniil Medvedev, Jannik Sinner and Lorenzo Musetti.

Casper Ruud is arguably better than all of those on the red dirt having reached the French Open Final in consecutive years and he will certainly feel he can play the superior tennis of the two on the court. An opening clay court match is tough after moving from the grass, but Ruud is accustomed to doing that in recent years and he should be able to find himself in the return games against an opponent who has won 55% of his service points against top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface.

There have been one or two disappointing losses suffered by Ruud on the clay in 2023, which is a concern, but in his four wins against players outside of the top 50, Ruud has covered this handicap mark three times in the best of three set environment.

The first set could be competitive, but you have to believe Casper Ruud can go through the gears to earn the double break in the second set to cover the spread being asked.

Sebastian Ofner - 1.5 games v Bernabe Zapata Miralles: It would be wise to throw out the results of the previous two matches between these players as they were played on hard and grass courts. Mentally there may be a slight advantage with Sebastian Ofner who has won both of those matches against Bernabe Zapata Miralles, although the last meeting was in 2021 and this is a match that will be played on a clay court.

Both have already had a strong month on the red dirt- while fans would have been concentrating on the second week at Wimbledon, these two players both reached the Final of a Challenger event played on the clay courts.

The difference between the two is that Ofner won the title and Zapata Miralles finished as Runner Up, but both have shown they are very competent on the surface.

Out of the two players, Sebastian Ofner will be credited with a stronger First Round win having beaten Tomas Martin Etcheverry from a set behind, although that does mean the Austrian had to spend around thirty minutes more on court compared with Bernabe Zapata Miralles.

After a long week on the Tour, this may make some of an impact, but it is not expected to be one that is decisive.

Sebastian Ofner has been able to get a few more cheap points out of the serve and that is where things can become easier for a player on the slower surface. If Ofner can serve well, he may be able to play with a little more freedom against the Zapata Miralles serve, one that is being held at 68% on the clay courts compared with Ofner's 77% mark.

You have to credit Bernabe Zapata Miralles for putting plenty of wins on the board on this surface and the Spaniard has been the superior return player of the two in this Second Round match. In saying that, it should be noted that his return numbers are much more similar to Sebastian Ofner's when you only consider matches against top 100 Ranked players and this is where the feeling is that the Austrian's bigger serve can prove to be the key factor in the outcome of the match.

A three setter cannot be ruled out with the way both have been playing, but Sebastian Ofner can find the breaks to win and cover this mark.

Jordan Thompson - 1.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: The grass court season may be a short one, but these two veterans of the Tour are meeting for the fifth time on the surface in this Newport Quarter Final.

Adrian Mannarino had the better of Jordan Thompson with three wins on the grass against him, but the Australian snapped that run with a win over Mannarino last month in Hertogenbosch. Jordan Thompson had to come from a set behind to earn that victory, but was the stronger player on the day and has had a very good month on the surface.

He gave Novak Djokovic something to think about at Wimbledon in the Second Round on Centre Court, while Thompson has dominated his two matches at this tournament. Confidence is clearly in a good place with Thompson finishing as Runner Up in one grass court tournament and reaching the Semi Final in another, while snapping the losing run to Adrian Mannarino has to give him further belief.

No one will underestimate Adrian Mannarino who is a confident grass court player and who won pretty well in his Second Round match. The Frenchman also finished Runner Up in one grass court event and made the Quarter Final in two others, although Adrian Mannarino's numbers have been tighter than Jordan Thompson's on this surface this season.

The overall performances from Jordan Thompson have felt stronger and his confident wins in Newport could see him earn back to back victories over Adrian Mannarino on the grass.

MY PICKS: Casper Ruud - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Sebastian Ofner - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Jordan Thompson - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-9, - 5.28 Units (32 Units Staked, - 16.50% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 18th)

No one will ever say the 'Big Three' era of men's tennis has been bad for the sport, but there comes a time when the future has to arrive if a sport is going to continue to thrive.

Roger Federer has officially retired and it sounds like Rafael Nadal might try and get healthy for one more full year on the Tour in 2024 having not played since his Second Round upset loss at the Australian Open back in January. And at 36 years old, Novak Djokovic is certainly reaching the latter part of his career, which means someone had to come through and fill in.

The dominance of the Big Three has hurt a couple of generations of players, but men's tennis might finally be ready to see a new era of stars come through and win multiple Grand Slam titles.

Carlos Alcaraz will be leading the way as the current holder of the US Open title and now the Wimbledon Champion and he is one of a handful of multiple Slam Winners now operating on the Tour. The likes of Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev have had their Grand Slam moments and could have more than the one US Open that each has won, but Carlos Alcaraz looks the player that will take tennis forward with the likes of Holger Rune and Jannik Sinner now having someone to chase.

The Spaniard will likely go into the US Open as the favourite to defend the title he won there last year, but Novak Djokovic will know he was one or two points from winning the Wimbledon title himself and the Serb is going to be massively motivated by what happened on Sunday. This could mean we have a couple of years of a really good rivalry between the King and the Prince of men's tennis and hopefully the bar has been raised for some of the younger players who have the capabilities of bridging the gap.

Novak Djokovic has not won the US Open since 2018, but he has not had a lot of luck in New York in recent years and he will be doing all he can to change that. Last year he was not even allowed to travel to the tournament, but in 2020 it was a Default that proved costly in the Fourth Round, while the loss to Daniil Medvedev in 2021 saw Djokovic run out of steam having won the first three Grand Slams of the season and having a five set Semi Final win before losing the Final.

The final Grand Slam of the season cannot come around quickly enough and Novak Djokovic is still the favourite to finish with the Number 1 World Ranking at the end of the season. Carlos Alcaraz winning Wimbledon is great news for tennis fans because we are going to see Djokovic find a renewed motivation to keep himself on the throne as the King and this can only be good news for those watching on.

Sports are all about having the next generation come in and move things forward and Carlos Alcaraz is looking the player to get behind to take things on from the Big Three era.

Women's tennis is looking to Iga Swiatek to do that for their side of the sport, but it is a touch disappointing that the two perceived main rivals to the Pole were not able to win the title at Wimbledon. It means Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina both only have one previous Grand Slam victory and more is needed from both of them to really help build a genuine rivalry at the top of the WTA Tour.

Iga Swiatek has won four Grand Slam titles, but has never really enjoyed playing at Wimbledon so her Quarter Final defeat was not completely unexpected, even in the weaker half of the draw. Elena Rybakina was also beaten in the last eight, while Sabalenka will be wondering how she blew her winning position in yet another Grand Slam Semi Final defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.

All credit has to be given to Marketa Vondrousova for winning the Wimbledon title and the lefty could be a top player on the Tour as long as she can stay healthy after wrist issues just held her career back. Not many would have tipped Vondrousova up for the title before a ball had been hit at Wimbledon and she was arguably one point away from losing her Quarter Final match against Jessica Pegula as the Czech player became the latest maiden Grand Slam winner.

The victory also means that half of the last fourteen Grand Slams played by the women has been won by a first time Slam Champion. Going a bit further, fourteen of the twenty-five Slams played since Serena Williams won her twenty-third and final title have been won by first time winners, while multiple Slam Champions like Naomi Osaska and Ashleigh Barty are not on the Tour now. As I have mentioned before, this is not ideal and there has to be a hope for fans of the WTA that one of the multiple former Grand Slam Champions in the US Open draw will be able to win the title.

The likes of Ons Jabeur, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff will have something to say about that in New York City in a few weeks time, but you would make the top three players in the current WTA Rankings to be the favourites when the tournament comes around.

The third Grand Slam of the season is over and there is just one more grass court tournament to be played, although that usually brings in a weaker field in Newport. This week the European summer clay court season has gotten underway with events in Bastad, Gstaad, Budapest and Palermo, while the hard court events will soon begin to get going in preparation for the US Open.

Some big names are taking part on the ATP Tour this week and I will be making some selections, although it may not be every day.

The focus will likely be on the European clay court events, with Tuesday beginning with Picks from the ATP Bastad event.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 5.5 games v Jozef Kovalik: Any player that comes through the Qualifiers has to be respected, but Jozef Kovalik has not had a very strong season on the clay courts.

In general his matches have been played against those outside the top 100 of the World Rankings and yet Kovalik holds an 11-17 record on the surface in 2023. Three times he has played against top 100 Ranked opponents and Jozef Kovalik has lost all three of those matches, while struggling with his return of serve.

It has to be expected that Kovalik will have more return success against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina who has won 61% of service points played on the red dirt in fourteen matches this year. That number does jump up to 64% when only focusing on matches played against those outside of the top 50 in the Rankings, while the Davidovich Fokina return is a major weapon for him on the surface.

Last year Alejandro Davidovich Fokina crushed Jozef Kovalik in straight sets in Hamburg and it was the return of serve that proved to be a major difference between the players on the day.

The Spaniard should have the return to put Kovalik under pressure and eventually break through the defences on his way to a relatively comfortable First Round win.

Elias Ymer - 5.5 games v Leo Borg: It will never be easy for the son of Bjorn Borg to make a big impact on the Tour with the expectations that come with the surname and that has been an issue for Leo Borg.

Of course the flip side is that Borg is going to be given a lot more opportunities because of the achievements his father had in his prime and a Wild Card into Bastad is an example of that.

Leo Borg faces another Wild Card in Elias Ymer, but the latter has been one of the stronger Swedish players since the retirement of Robin Soderling. Elias has not matched the progress made by his brother Mikael, who is surprisingly playing in Gstaad rather than here in Bastad, but Ymer is considerably higher in the World Rankings than Leo Borg.

The serve needs to be improved by Elias Ymer if he is going to crack the top 100 in the World Rankings, but he has struggled to find the consistency needed. The return is the stronger side of his tennis, but Ymer should still have too much all around for Leo Borg who has not beaten anyone Ranked inside the top 350 over the last twelve months on this surface.

The lower Ranked player has had issues remaining competitive within matches when things start going downhill and Elias Ymer should have enough to find at least four breaks of serve that should allow him to cover.

MY PICKS: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Elias Ymer - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)

Sebastian Baez - 3.5 Games @ 1.70 Coral (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Bernabe Zapata Miralles - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tomas Martin Etcheverry - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 19th)

It was a solid enough Thursday with a 2-1 record from the Tennis Picks, although I do think there was every chance all three picks would have come back as winners if Pablo Cuevas had kept himself together in the middle of his defeat to Federico Delbonis.

Now we move onto the Quarter Final matches to be played on Friday around the five tournaments that are taking place this week. Unfortunately my internet has been down around the house on Thursday evening which means I have not been able to write out full analysis for the selections being made.

The fortunate part is that I did have time to research the four selections I am placing in the MY PICKS section below which will hopefully add to the positive start made on Thursday.


MY PICKS: Joao Sousa @ 2.30 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-1, + 2.20 Units (6 Units Staked, + 36.67% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 18th)

A lot of the biggest names on the ATP and WTA Tours will have needed a break after Wimbledon and I have to admit I needed a couple of days to recharge from the third Grand Slam of the season too. I might not have needed any physical effort to enjoy the tennis over the first two weeks of the month, but it did take a mental effort to research the matches.

Ultimately I was rewarded with a strong tournament adding plenty of units to the 2019 season totals and it was also the third profitable Grand Slam of the year. That's a positive, but I always felt it was going to need a couple of days off from looking through matches before I was ready to try and add to the profits with a new game in a new week.

This week we have stops in Bucharest and Lausanne on the WTA Tour and Bastad, Newport and Umag on the ATP Tour. The First Round of all of those tournaments have been completed, but the Quarter Final line up has not been decided in all but Newport.

It might not be the week with the deepest level of quality at the events being played, but all those involved will be looking for key Ranking points in the last clay court or grass court events being played on the main Tour. At the end of this month the run to the US Open will begin with hard court events leading into the two big Masters events in Canada and Cincinnati which is when the very biggest of names will be back in action.


Below you will see the plays I have from Thursday with the focus being the two clay court events being played on the ATP Tour. I have also updated the season totals with the Wimbledon numbers in the books.


MY PICKS: Pablo Cuevas - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Facundo Bagnis - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)

Season 2019: + 112.21 Units (1337 Units Staked, + 8.39% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 20th)

Friday is regularly Quarter Final day on the Tennis Tour from week to week and this Friday is no different with all of the last eight matches in Bucharest, Gstaad, Bastad and Umag all set to be played.

Newport is a little different as they split their Quarter Finals across Thursday and Friday so the two remaining Quarter Final matches are set to go on Friday.


It has been a tough couple of days for the Tennis Picks with a couple of poor bits of fortune costing me the chance to have a couple of winning days.

On Friday I will add any Picks from the late matches in Umag that have yet to have their markets put together, but the majority of the Tennis Picks are below.


Simone Bolelli - 3.5 games v Henri Laaksonen: The most impressive performance that Simone Bolelli would have produced for the majority of fans to see would have been his close encounter with Rafael Nadal at the French Open. However the Italian has been going about his work to improve the World Ranking and a strong run to the Quarter Final in Bastad after coming through the Qualifiers will be helping his improvement.

This has been part of a strong season on the clay courts for the veteran Italian who has been up and down throughout his career. The numbers have shown how well he has played at the lower level and Bolelli is not faced with an opponent who is used to playing at the main ATP level himself.

Henri Laaksonen has also come through the Qualifiers, but he was the beneficiary of a Lucky Loser spot to take his place in the main draw. He actually beat Juan Ignacio Londero in the First Round after losing to the same player in the Qualifiers, and Laaksonen was much more impressive in the way he beat Matteo Berrettini in the Second Round.

Unlike Bolelli, Laaksonen's general numbers have not been that strong over the course of 2018 when it comes to the clay courts. There has been a decline across both serving and returning numbers compared with 2016 and 2017 and his 12-12 record has been aided by winning a couple of matches here in Bastad.

Bolelli has been much stronger as underlined by his 22-7 mark on the clay courts and the Italian has been holding serve at 85% which will give him a good platform to build on in this match against an opponent who has struggled with the return of serve. Add in the fact that Bolelli has a decent break percentage and I think he will break down Laaksonen and back up a very good win over Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the Second Round.

In his 22 wins, 18 have seen Bolelli cover this number and I think he will better an opponent who has not had the same level of success on the Challenger Tour as Bolelli has had. I will back the Italian to find a way to earn the cover in this one and move through to a main Tour Semi Final which will offer a huge boost to the World Ranking.


Marco Cecchinato - 1.5 games v Laslo Djere: The feeling was that Marco Cecchinato would be a touch overrated in matches on the clay courts during this mini-European swing after layers would factor in the run to the French Open Semi Final. In saying that I am surprised that Cecchinato is not a stronger favourite to beat Laslo Djere in this Umag Quarter Final and I do like the Italian to work his way into another Semi Final on this surface.

Earlier this season Cecchinato won the title in Budapest which is the first real success he has had on the main Tour. Nothing he had done between that title win and the beginning of the French Open would have prepared us to see the run Cecchinato managed in Paris, but he is unsurprisingly very comfortable on the clay.

The numbers Cecchinato has produced have shown that some of his successes have had more to do with his performance than simple good fortune, but he can't expect to walk through Djere who has had a couple of solid wins behind him already this week.

Djere beating Pablo Cuevas shows this is a player ready to take the next step in his career and he has very similar clay court numbers to Cecchinato, albeit the majority of his matches coming at the lower level than the main ATP Tour. Since Roland Garros Djere has reached the Final of one Challenger event on the clay and won the title at another and that kind of confidence can be huge for a player who then moves onto a higher level of opponent.

That difference of level of opponent has to be considered, but I think that the layers have made this a tough match to separate the players because of how well Djere has been playing over the last month. Djere has been returning really well in his first couple of matches in Umag and he has brought up a lot of break points thanks to a strong level shown which makes him dangerous.

However I think Cecchinato has shown heart to come through a difficult Second round match and his belief has to be at peak level. The Italian has been that little bit stronger all around when he has played opponents Ranked outside the top 50 on the clay courts in 2018 and I think he will edge out Djere here.


Dusan Lajovic - 1.5 games v Guido Pella: The clay courts have always been the favoured surface for Dusan Lajovic, but he has made slight improvements in his numbers in 2018 to produce more wins on the main Tour than previous years.

With a couple more wins he could be fast approaching his best ever World Ranking and Lajovic comes into this Quarter Final as the favourite to beat Guido Pella.

No one will be underestimating how good Pella can be on the clay courts considering this is a surface on which he would have been very used to playing all his life. His own numbers have been decent, but Pella has already had to come through two tough matches so far in Umag and that could mean he is vulnerable to Lajovic in the form he is in.

Both players have served well and Pella only has a slight edge when it comes to the return of serve, but I think the Lajovic serve will ensure that he is having to face off not as many break points as the Argentinian will have to.

I won't be at all surprised if this is a close match with another deciding set needed having seen both win in three sets in the Second Round. That is where Lajovic's slightly less tennis being played this week could mean he has more to offer and I will look to back him to get the better of Pella in this Quarter Final.


Evgeny Donskoy v Marco Trungelliti: Marco Trungelliti will be most known to tennis fans for the journey he made from Barcelona to Paris to take up a Lucky Loser spot in the French Open draw back in May. With his mother and grandmother crammed either side of his tennis racquets, Trungelliti took advantage of social media to show the fans a little insight into his life.

Travelling on the road is the life of a tennis player but especially the case for someone like Trungelliti who is making a tough living on the Tour. The majority of his time is spent on the Challenger circuit, although he has shown in Umag that he should be respected on the clay courts which is his favoured surface.

Coming through a couple of Qualifiers and then winning a couple of main draw matches will help with the Ranking and he is favoured to reach the Semi Final here.

However I think Evgeny Donskoy could be a little underrated to upset the Argentinian having shown good form of his own. Donskoy has arguably the most impressive of the wins this week compared with Trungelliti and that can only aid the confidence of a player who has been serving very well on the clay courts in 2018.

I am anticipating a close match and I would not be surprised if we need a decider as both players had to battle through one in their last match. The serving prowess of Donskoy may give him enough of an edge to upset Trungelliti though and I am backing the Russian to get past his opponent and make the Semi Final in Umag.

MY PICKS: Simone Bolelli - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marco Cecchinato - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Evgeny Donskoy @ 2.37 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-8, + 0.12 Units (34 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 19th)

The tournaments continue in the five destinations this week and we are already getting down to the final few days of the events which have come hot on the heels of the end of the third Grand Slam of the season.

While the majority of those players expecting to challenge at the US Open will be resting up and recharging the batteries, these weeks are very important to those players down the World Rankings with the open looking draws giving them a chance to pick up vital Ranking points.

Like Wednesday, I will add those Tennis Picks from the ATP Newport event on Thursday, but the way the Second Round is split in two at the majority of events means the markets are available for the other four tournaments and the matches scheduled to be played on Thursday.

This has been a tough week so I've not had a lot of time. While I have a full analysis of one of the matches, I am adding the other Tennis Picks to the 'MY PICKS' section below.


Sam Stosur - 4.5 games v Patty Schnyder: Once upon a time Patty Schnyder was a top ten Ranked player on the WTA Tour but she decided to retire in 2011 and didn't return to the Tour until 2015. Her comeback has unsurprisingly not reached the kind of levels that Kim Clijsters did simply because Schnyder was already well into her mid 30s when she returned to the Tour.

The love for the game has kept Schnyder going when others may have decided it was not worth battling on the ITF Tour and the lower level events. Wins at that level has helped Schnyder get back into the top 200 of the World Rankings and she is still trending in a positive direction, although failures to Qualify for the Grand Slam events at the Australian Open and Wimbledon show Schnyder is still not quite up to the level she would like.

This is only the seventh match Schnyder will have played on the main Tour on the clay courts since returning from retirement and a player like Sam Stosur should be too good for her.

Stosur is another veteran of the Tour these days and her best days are clearly behind her, but she remains very competitive on the clay courts. The Australian dominated another older player in Francesca Schiavone in the First Round and her numbers have to be put into context compared with Schnyder's simply because of the differing levels they have been operating at.

While only holding an 8-6 record on the clay courts in 2018, there haven't been too many bad losses for Stosur as she continues to see off those opponents she would expect to beat. There has been a decline in the return numbers which will be of concern when you think of the handicap number in this one, but Stosur will put Schnyder under pressure thanks to a serve that remains very good.

It won't always be easy for Stosur, but I do think she can win this match and she can cover a big number.

MY PICKS: Sam Stosur - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Martin Klizan - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-5, + 2.48 Units (24 Units Staked, + 10.33% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 18th)

While we have a couple of tournaments being played on the WTA Tour and the ATP Bastad event which have regular start times, the ATP events in Umag and Newport have late starts which means the markets are slower at being released.

For now I am going to add my sole Pick from Bastad and I will add any from the other couple of ATP tournaments to this thread in a few hours from now.


The first couple of days after Wimbledon have been pretty positive for the Tennis Picks made and I am looking to keep the positive momentum going.

There are a lot of players who are more likely to be seen on the Challenger Tour who have entered the main Tour events this week so they can be a little tougher to read with the step up, but so far it has been a good week and I want that to continue as we move towards the middle of the tournaments.


Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Pedro Sousa: I'll be the first to admit that Fernando Verdasco is a player on the wane and one who can be difficult to trust considering some of the rumours that have swirled around his matches in recent years.

He had to come through in three sets in the First Round but Verdasco has continued his love affair with this tournament in Bastad.

I would expect Verdasco to be too good for Pedro Sousa who spends 99% of his time at the Challenger level and who hasn't exactly produced hugely impressive numbers in those matches. All respect to Sousa for coming through the First Round in the main draw here, but beating Radu Albot is a completely different test to trying to do the same to Verdasco in the Second Round.

I have little doubt that Verdasco is on the wane in his career, but his numbers on the clay courts have remained pretty strong in 2018. The results have not necessarily followed and Verdasco now throws in a really poor set compared with a couple of years ago when the Spaniard might have one or two poor games per match.

That is a concern when backing him to cover such a big number as this one, but I think Verdasco enjoys playing in Bastad and he is still significantly better than Sousa. The latter may have some good moments, but I expect Verdasco to wear him down with the superior tennis and I will back him to cover in this one.


Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: It might be strange to see Albert Ramos-Vinolas down as the underdog in this Second Round match despite the fact he is the Seeded player who received a bye in the First Round. Add in the fact that this match is played on the favoured surface of the Spaniard and you can make a case for Ramos-Vinolas as the underdog.

However 2018 has been a difficult season for Ramos-Vinolas even on the clay courts and he has under performed to this point.

Now he faces a player in Dusan Lajovic who has been in very good form over the last couple of months and who has been playing the superior tennis of the two on this surface. There are still areas where Lajovic can look to improve, but his numbers on the clay courts have been strong enough to suggest he can get the better of Ramos-Vinolas especially with a solid win already under his belt.

I can see both players having their chances to break serve here, but Lajovic has been a little more productive when it comes to taking those opportunities.

I am expecting that to happen here and Lajovic is able to beat Ramos-Vinolas for the first time on clay and also cover the number on his way through to the Quarter Final in Umag on Friday.


Gilles Muller - 2.5 games v Marcel Granollers: It has recently been announced by Gilles Muller that he is planning to hang up his racquet at the end of the 2018 season. That may not be a big surprise when you see the slide down the World Rankings and the veteran is clearly not feeling he can play his best tennis nor having the desire to battle through Qualifiers to play in the big tournaments in the months ahead.

The final event he will play on grass comes here in Newport and Muller had a solid win in the First Round against Marcos Baghdatis which will give him some encouragement that he can have a strong week here.

He faces another veteran in Marcel Granollers, but the Spaniard is intent on fighting his way back up the World Rankings. Injuries and a loss of form have seen Granollers drop out of the top 100 of the World Rankings, and the majority of his 2018 has been on the Challenger Tour.

That isn't always a bad idea to step back and produce some wins and rebuild flagging confidence and Granollers has done that for the most part in 2018.

However you would expect Muller to be the favourite on the grass courts and he served well enough in the First Round to edge out Granollers. The return game is always a concern for Muller as is his poor season so far, but I think his win over Baghdatis could propel him to a strong week on the Tour and I like him to beat the Spaniard and cover the number in his Second Round win.


Matthew Ebden - 4.5 games v Tim Smyczek: There may be some regrets from Matthew Ebden that he was not able to go a little deeper into the Wimbledon draw after a very strong month on the grass courts. At least he gets the chance to finish his grass campaign on a high as Ebden bids to go one better than 2017 when he was beaten in the Newport Final.

This time Ebden is coming into the tournament in much better confidence after the strong results on the grass and the numbers have backed up the improved results.

I expect he will have too much for Tim Smyczek who battled through the First Round in a close match against Bjorn Fratangelo which could have easily gone the other way. Unlike Ebden, Smyczek's serve has shown to be pretty vulnerable on the grass courts and I expect the Australian to take advantage of that in this Second Round match.

This is not the first time they have played on the grass in 2018 after Ebden dismissed the challenge of Smyczek comfortably in Hertogenbosch last month. On that occasion Ebden lost just five games and I think he is going to be good enough to cover a big number in this Second Round clash too.

Smyczek's decision to take in a hard court Challenger event between this tournament and Wimbledon might not be ideal too even though he won in the First Round. I expect Ebden will be able to dominate his own service games for the most part and eventually expose the vulnerabilities of the Smyczek serve in a strong win.


Mischa Zverev - 2.5 games v Vasek Pospisil: If Matthew Ebden was disappointed in his Wimbledon campaign you have to wonder what Mischa Zverev was feeling having been beaten in the First Round. That came just days after winning the title in Eastbourne and I have to factor in the expectation that Zverev could have been a little tired, although that doesn't give him an easy excuse for the poor First Round defeat.

This week there are no such fatigue issues and Zverev's game is tailor-made for the grass courts.

He will expect his serve to dominate Vasek Pospisil, who is a limited returner to say the least, but the key to this match is how well the German can begin to pick the big Pospisil serve.

The Canadian has been able to rattle through enough service games on the grass courts to keep him from ever being hammered on the scoreboard, while Pospisil is just as comfortable as Zverev getting up to the net and putting away volleys. Both players will be keen to get up to the net and put the pressure on their opponent to hit multiple passing shots to win the match, but I do edge towards Zverev being able to do that a little more than Pospisil.

Zverev has a few more effective returns than Pospisil and my bigger concern is that this is his first match on these grass courts having received a bye in the First Round. The first set could be very competitive with that in mind, but by the second I would expect Zverev to begin to get a read on the Pospisil serve and make enough returns to force a break or two.

That may be enough to cover the number in this Second Round match and I will back Zverev to earn the win and move through to the Quarter Final later this week.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Matthew Ebden - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-2, + 4.96 Units (14 Units Staked, + 35.43% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 17th)

I've got a few things going on at the moment in my personal life which means I will simply put down my Tennis Picks from the host of Tuesday matches that have been scheduled.


MY PICKS: Simone Bolelli - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
John Millman - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.52 Units (8 Units Staked, - 6.50% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 29th)

There are some weeks where you just can't seem to catch a break and I have no doubt that this is one of those.

Two more matches had every chance of winning going into the final set on Friday and both went the wrong way meaning almost every pick this week that has been beaten has been beaten in the final set. Winning more points has meant nothing, having the superior numbers overall haven't met anything and to say I have been frustrated is putting it mildly.

While it has been a crappy week in general, it could end on a bright note but I will have more about that in the coming days.

Friday was another busy day which means I am not able to put up a full post, but I will get back to the normal threads either on Saturday, if there are any picks from the Finals being played, or on Sunday for the opening matches of the new tournaments beginning on Monday.


MY PICKS: Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Yannick Hanfmann + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 28th)

Thursday proved to be a busy day for me, and a long one, which means my focus is simply getting the picks out for the Friday Quarter Final matches that will be played.

Wet weather remains an issue for the organisers of the events in Europe, but the tournaments remain on schedule and there hasn't been the need for players having to win two matches in a single day to remain in the draw.

It has been a poor week for the picks with little fortune behind them as players have continued to blow winning positions and subsequently missed the cover I have been looking for.

Tough weeks are part and parcel of a long season, but it is still frustrating when so many winning positions have been blown and the manner in which they have been blown.


MY PICKS: Karen Khachanov @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 27th)

There were a number of matches on Wednesday but only one made my shortlist and then there were enough doubts when having a deeper look at that contest which put me off backing it.

It has been a pretty difficult week to find the right angles for picks this week and the only two I have been convinced about have both let me down. Both have been very, very close to success, but ultimately being close is not good enough and I am hoping for better on Thursday to get this week turned back around.

The remainder of the Second Round matches will be played on Thursday before we move onto the Quarter Final matches at the five events being played this week. On Thursday I do have five picks from the tournaments and I am looking for a really strong day to move this week into a positive position for the remaining three days.


Kiki Bertens - 5.5 games v Barbora Krejcikova: This is the second time in 2017 that Kiki Bertens and Barbora Krejcikova will be meeting on the Tour and the latter will be hoping for much better than when she earned just three games in the Final in Nuremberg. That was a special tournament for Krejcikova, but Bertens has shown she is one of the better players on the clay courts on the WTA Tour with a title there and one won last week in Gstaad.

The Bertens numbers on the clay courts have been really impressive over the last two years and she has been able to look after her serve very effectively. That is perhaps no surprise when you think how good the serve is and Bertens is able to have the patience to work the points over.

It is also shown up in her return game overall, but those numbers get stronger across the board when Bertens has played opponents Ranked outside the top 100. Those small margins can make the big difference and it is difficult to see Krejcikova snap her 0-3 record against top 20 Ranked players on the clay despite the ease of her win over Annika Beck in the First Round here.

Tiredness could be a factor against Bertens who won the title in Gstaad but she didn't show that in her First Round win over Carina Witthoeft and I think the Bertens return game can set her up for a big win on Thursday. Serving as she has means Bertens can exert plenty of pressure on Krejcikova and I will look for the Dutchwoman to win this one 6-3, 6-3 and move into another Quarter Final on the clay in 2017.


David Ferrer - 2.5 games v Federico Delbonis: The decline in the David Ferrer game may be irreversible at this time of his career, but he won another title last week in Bastad. That was an impressive title win for Ferrer and I am a little worried that he will struggle to back that up with the inconsistency he has begun to show in his game.

Last week he beat Federico Delbonis who has suffered with injury and a loss of form to fall down the World Rankings and thus take part in more Challenger events than he has been used to. Delbonis has played well in those Challenger events with some deep runs in those tournaments which will have given him some confidence.

Winning two Qualifiers before a First Round success over Carlos Berlocq will add to that confidence and Delbonis and Ferrer did play a close match last week in Bastad. Both players were dominant on the return in that match and I think that will be the case again for both, although I can see Ferrer franking his form with another victory over Delbonis.

Ferrer has won all three previous matches against Delbonis without dropping a set, which is another mental edge for the veteran Spaniard, and I will look for him to win this one 7-6, 6-4.


Jiri Vesely - 2.5 games v Horacio Zeballos: He might not have been at his best in the First Round, but Jiri Vesely should take some heart from beating an in-form Fernando Verdasco over three sets. Playing a lefty in the First Round should mean Vesely is prepared for another meeting with Horacio Zeballos against whom he has won both previous matches.

Neither of those have been on the clay courts which will be Zeballos' preferred surface, but Vesely may also be at his best on this surface. His numbers against players Ranked outside the top 50 on the clay have been very impressive and that is why I do lean towards Vesely winning this one and also covering this number.

I do have to respect the fact that Zeballos does get some pop on his serve which makes him dangerous, but his return game is not the best. Zeballos will also be challenged by the return game Vesely is able to produce against those players Ranked outside the top 50 and I think that works together to see the Czech player move through to the Quarter Final.

In their two previous matches the superior returning of Vesely has proved to be a difference and I will be looking for this match to go the same way. A tie-breaker could be the key moment of the match, but I am looking for Vesely to win that and also the match 6-4, 7-6.


Karen Khachanov - 1.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: There is much to admire about Karen Khachanov's game and the young Russian certainly looks like one of the names to look out for in the coming years. He has had a couple of solid performances at Grand Slam events over the last couple of months, and Khachanov is very comfortable on the clay courts.

He will have to be close to his best to beat Aljaz Bedene who has had a very strong run on the clay courts in 2017. Bedene has showed improvement in both serving and returning in 2017 and that has seen him produce better results.

However those have rarely come against players of the quality of Khachanov and I think that is going to be an issue. While Khachanov hasn't returned as well as he had been in the last couple of years, that has something to do with taken a step up in class when playing regular ATP events and Khachanov has produced better numbers when facing those players Ranked outside the top 50.

Khachanov beat Bedene twice on the clay courts in 2016 and I think he can produce another win over him here in Hamburg. While Bedene has played better tennis on the clay since his last match with Khachanov, I also think the latter is much improved and I can see him being too strong in a 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 win.

MY PICKS: Kiki Bertens - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 25th)

It feels like the whole of Europe is having a downturn in weather at this moment in July, although the tournament in Atlanta was another affected by poor weather on Monday.

At least Hamburg has a roof on the main court there, but rain delays have to be expected in the days ahead and I think there is a big chance of seeing players have to complete two matches in a single day to get these events back on track.

There are plenty of tennis matches scheduled for Tuesday as the events play catch up with Monday being severely affected by the rain, but the forecast doesn't make for great reading on the day and it may be another delay-filled day.

While there may be a lot of matches scheduled, for the second day in a row I am making just one pick from the matches to be played, weather permitting.


Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 games v Pauline Parmentier: The clay courts may be the weakest of the surfaces as far as Caroline Wozniacki is concerned, but I think the Number 1 Seed in Bastad can get her event off to a solid start. This is a big number for Wozniacki to cover considering her clay court performances, but I think she has been able to produce enough solid tennis on the surface in 2017 to win this one.

Her opponent had a good run in Gstaad last week, but Pauline Parmentier has struggled when facing the better players on the Tour. The Frenchwoman is just 4-5 when facing top 100 players on the clay courts in 2017 and she was 5-4 last season and that is all the while Parmentier has only played five matches against players inside the top 50.

Parmentier is just 5-30 against top 20 players in her career and one of the poorer factors has been the return game which can be so important in women's tennis. She is 0-6 against top 20 players over the last two years on any surface and Parmentier has failed to get within this number of games four times in that time.

No one will confuse Wozniacki with someone who possesses a very strong serve, but the former World Number 1 is capable of looking after that enough to win this match. Her own return game is likely to put a lot of pressure on Parmentier and those numbers improve across the board when Wozniacki has taken on players Ranked outside the top 50 on the clay courts this season.

These two haven't met for a while, but Wozniacki recorded two big wins over Parmentier when they have played on the Tour and I will look for her to cover this number.

MY PICKS: Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 22nd)

The five tournaments being played this week have moved into the Semi Final Round and it has been an inconsistent week for the Tennis Picks.

It can still be concluded as a winning week though, and that is the most important factor, as I try and get 2017 turned around after a miserable time between February and April.

The build up to the next Grand Slam at the US Open will begin next week with the first hard court event in North America being played in Atalanta, and I am looking for a strong six weeks to lead into the US Open and build some real momentum.


Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 games v David Ferrer: It is David Ferrer who has the lead in the head to head between these players, but this is the first time Ferrer will play Fernando Verdasco since May 2015. In that time there is no doubt that Ferrer has declined as a player while Verdasco is perhaps a little more steady with his play these days.

You can't completely ignore the head to head because Ferrer may feel he still owns the mental advantage between himself and Verdasco. That can be a tough obstacle for players to overcome, but Verdasco has beaten him seven times in the past so wins over Ferrer won't feel so alien to him to see Verdasco struggle to cope.

There definitely seems to be a real edge in the numbers Verdasco is producing compared with Ferrer who is struggling to hold serve as effectively. His return numbers used to be a strength for Ferrer, but he has had his difficulties when playing the better players on the Tour and I think the Verdasco serve has certainly been offering up the chance for Verdasco to dictate the points.

The Verdasco return has been a key part of his game in 2017 and I do think he can put Ferrer under pressure in this Semi Final. The latter Spaniard had a long match in his Quarter Final too and these factors can come together in what could be a surprisingly comfortable win for Verdasco.

I expect Verdasco to have the better of the break point chances and he can win this one 6-4, 6-4.


Added one pick from Umag below. Am out for the day so can't do a full breakdown of the pick.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Paolo Lorenzo - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 @BetFred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-6, + 1.18 Units (26 Units Staked, + 4.54% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 21st)

I've just had a few things to do on Thursday which means I am not able to produce the full breakdowns of the Tennis Picks from the Quarter Final matches that are scheduled for Friday.

For this thread I will simply put the picks down below and I should be back with a proper thread for the Semi Final matches as long as I have any picks from those matches.


MY PICKS: Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-4, + 1.72 Units (18 Units Staked, + 9.56% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 20th)

It was a decent, if unspectacular, Wednesday with two of the three picks returning a winner.

Thursday is a day reserved for the second half of the Second Round matches to be played at the various tournaments outside of ATP Newport which has reached its Quarter Final Round although they do spread those four matches over two days.

No one can deny there are plenty of matches to get through on Thursday, but I will be honest and say only two of those have intrigued me enough to add to the picks for this week.


Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Facundo Bagnis: Some may have been moved away from this pick after seeing the struggles Fernando Verdasco had initially in his win over Elias Ymer in the First Round. The veteran may not have covered that day, but he played well enough to have a chance to do that and I think he can beat Facundo Bagnis for a second year in a row in Bastad.

Last year Verdasco lost just three games to Bagnis in a comfortable win here and he is still returning well enough to give the Argentinian troubles in those games. Bagnis did beat another veteran in the First Round when coming from a set down to beat Tommy Haas, but the challenge is much different when facing an opponent who is still inside the top 50 compared with one who is calling time on a long career.

There have been improvements in the Bagnis game when coming up to the higher level which may make him more competitive in this match with Verdasco who is also a year older. However Bagnis has not played well against the top 50 when his serve has proven to be one that can be attacked, while his return game is still not as strong as it should be to make an impact at that level.

That is not so much a concern for Verdasco who should be able to serve and return with effective enough ability to put himself in a strong position in the match. Nowadays Verdasco is more likely to throw in a stinker of a set, like he did in the First Round, but the numbers backed up the superior player.

With a slightly better returning day, as he has shown when players lower down the Ranking table, Verdasco should be able to come through with a 6-3, 6-4 win in this one.


Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 4.5 games v Thiago Monteiro: There are a couple of factors that may put some off from this pick and the most notable is the way that Thiago Monteiro has played against fellow left handed players on the clay courts. He has won all previous matches against fellow lefty's on this surface, but I think the defending Champion can break down the South American in this one.

It has been an up and down season for Albert Ramos-Vinolas who perhaps underachieved on the clay as far as he has been concerned. However he has shown he is now comfortable enough to beat those players outside of the top 50 on the clay courts and much of that is down to strong returning.

The serve can be vulnerable, but Ramos-Vinolas looks after that against the lesser players on the Tour and Monteiro's return game is one that has much room for improvement. The win in the First Round came through a retirement so we can't read too much into that one, but Monteiro is someone who has shown he can struggle when playing the better players on the Tour.

Ramos-Vinolas is 27-6 on the clay against players Ranked outside the top 50 over the last two seasons and his return numbers have been impressive in that time. I will be looking for him to find a way to put pressure on Monteiro in this one with that return game working out effectively. 

It feels like Monteiro will find lesser chances to break serve compared with Ramos-Vinolas and I think the Spaniard can get through his opening match in Bastad with a 6-4, 6-3 win.

MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-3, + 1.52 Units (14 Units Staked, + 10.86% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 19th)

There does feel like there is a distinct lack of quality out on the Tour this week which isn't a surprise days after Wimbledon came to a close. While some decent players are in action, the bigger matches are unlikely to be seen until the end of the week when those players are matched up against one another.

The Second Round matches might be better than we saw earlier in the week, but there are still enough mismatches to have some very short priced favourites on Wednesday when the first half of those Second Round matches are played at the five main Tour events.


Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 games v Renzo Olivo: I don't think I will ever forget the way the match went the last time Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and Renzo Olivo met on the Tour. That came earlier in 2017 and Schwartzman somehow failed to cover this number of games despite producing 21 break points compared with just the 9 for Olivo, but the higher Ranked Argentinian could not find the breaks easy to come by.

That does mean Schwartzman has created 37 break points in the last two matches between these players, but his conversion rate has not been anything to write home about. That is a concern because maybe Olivo has some mental strength which enables him to get out of tough spots, but I am more encouraged by Schwartzman's return numbers against players Ranked outside the top 50.

Those numbers on the clay suggest Schwartzman won't be as generous at letting his break points slip away, while his service numbers have also been more productive. Of course this is a vulnerable serve, but Olivo has struggled when playing the top players on the clay as his recent 1-5 record against top 50 players highlights.

Olivo may also have the edge of being over in Bastad over the last two weeks and so accustomed to the conditions, but I think it is Schwartzman who will have the majority of the play.

I do expect breaks of serve for both players, but Schwartzman has the numbers which point to a 7-5, 6-3 kind of win for him in this one.


Pablo Cuevas - 4.5 games v Henri Laaksonen: A knee injury ruled Pablo Cuevas out of Wimbledon the year after he had reached the Final in Nottingham on the grass. The absence from the Tour with an issue that has blighted him before is an obvious concern, but I also know that some players have previously skipped the grass in order to keep their knees from wearing down, particularly Rafael Nadal.

That is the biggest question mark about this match which should be one that Cuevas is very comfortable in. While he is one of the better clay court players on the Tour, Cuevas faces Henri Laaksonen who is still finding his feet at the highest level of the Tour.

There have been six occasions Laaksonen has played a top 50 Ranked player on the clay and he has lost all six of those matches. He was narrowly beaten by Andreas Seppi in a Davis Cup tie, but the other five losses have come in one sided fashion and his struggles on the return are likely to be a big issue here.

Cuevas has loved playing those further down the World Rankings where he is able to generate plenty of success on the return of serve. That could be a big issue for Laaksonen in this one if Cuevas is feeling good and I do think the higher Ranked player will be able to put his opponent under pressure.

The biggest question remains the Cuevas health, but if he feels ready to go in this one, I think he can come through with a 6-3, 6-4 win.


Jiri Vesely - 4.5 games v Radu Albot: Jiri Vesely got it done when picking him in the First Round and I do think he can cover this number against Radu Albot too.

The numbers against players Ranked outside the top 100 on the clay continue to impress from Vesely who has improved to 7-1 in that spot in 2017 to add to the 9-1 record he had in 2016. The serve becomes a big weapon for Vesely at this level, but the key is the way he has been able to get his teeth into the return games which was highlighted in his impressive First Round win over Norbert Gombos.

I will be looking for that dominance to show up at some point in this match too against Radu Albot who is coming off a decent grass court showing. However he is 0-4 when facing top 50 Ranked players on the clay courts and Albot's issues begin with what is a vulnerable serve, one that I would expect Vesely to exploit in this Second Round match.

He hasn't returned well enough against the top players, while Albot's overall return numbers on the clay makes it difficult to believe he will be capable of sticking with his opponent in this match.

I would expect Vesely to be in a position to break serve three or four times in this match and a decent day behind serve should see him come through with a 6-3, 6-4 win in this one.

MY PICKS: Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-2, + 0 Units (8 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 18th)

There were quite a few matches scheduled for Monday at the five tournaments being played this week, but I didn't really find anything but the one angle with the Carla Suarez Navarro pick.

Thankfully that was an angle that provided a winner.

On Tuesday I do have a few more matches that have interested me with plenty of First Round matches remaining at the various tournaments. Hopefully it can be a day when I build off the success of Monday and get this week into a really positive position before we reach the halfway mark.


Jiri Vesely - 4.5 games v Norbert Gombos: He can be a hard player to trust having not quite reached the level expected of him, but Jiri Vesely is comfortable on the clay courts and shouldn't be intimidated by the level of competition he will face in Umag. It has been clear from his numbers that Vesely is considerably stronger when playing at the Challenger level compared with the full ATP during his career on this surface, but this tournament is not considerably stronger than a Challenger event.

The First Round match for Vesely against Norbert Gombos is certainly more in line with the level of opponent he would meet in a Challenger and I think the Czech player is going to be too good for Gombos. You have to respect the fact that Gombos has some solid numbers on the clay, but those have come against players Ranked far below Vesely and I do think that is a difference maker on the day.

The service points won and return points won numbers come down considerably for Gombos when he has taken on top 50 Ranked opponents during his career. Life has been much tougher when it comes to trying to hold onto his serve and this could be a big problem against Vesely.

That comes down to the fact that Vesely has served and returned much better when facing the weaker level of competition in the Challengers that he seems to dominate. Vesely's serve is a weapon on either Tour, but it is the return numbers which are significantly stronger and I expect he is going to be able to make that show up on Tuesday.

These two players haven't met since 2014, but I still think Vesely's 5-1 head to head lead, 4-1 on the clay is still relevant. While Gombos hasn't made a significant move onto the main Tour, Vesely has and has also continued to prove too strong when he drops his level of competition and I like the Czech player to earn a 6-3, 6-4 win in this one.


Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 games v Thiago Monteiro: It is never an easy decision to back a player who is coming off a long week where they have either reached the Final or won a tournament. Usually it will mean shortened travel time to the next tournament and can be difficult for a player, but Dusan Lajovic won't have the same excuses having won a Challenger event in Bastad a few days ago.

Now Lajovic enters the main tournament draw in Bastad looking to back up the success of last week and being accustomed to the conditions has to help. His best work has tended to come on the clay courts and he is favoured to beat Thiago Monteiro whose best clay court work has come in South America.

However Monteiro has to be respected having spent his life playing on clay and so feeling very good on the surface. The Brazilian hasn't been in the best of form of late though and I do worry that Monteiro doesn't play the return points well enough on the clay to be a threat to significantly improve his World Ranking.

That isn't to say Lajovic is the best returner out there, but he does tend to improve when playing the Challenger kind of level and his opponent is someone he would potentially see in those tournaments. The return numbers also improve when facing players Ranked outside the top 50 and I think that is important for Lajovic who can protect his serve a little better than Monteiro in this one.

Facing a lefty could present some early problems for Lajovic, and fatigue could be another potential issue for him. However I do think Monteiro's poor returning numbers could prove to be a difference in the match as Lajovic is able to work his way to a 6-4, 6-4 win.


Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Elias Ymer: His best days are behind him, but Fernando Verdasco should still have enough in the locker to beat home hope Elias Ymer who has yet to make the breakthrough at the highest level in his career. Ymer did reach the Quarter Final of the Bastad Challenger last week, but this is a significant step up in class for him even if Verdasco is not the player he once was.

The serve is not working as it did, but Verdasco has been returning as well as ever in his career in 2017 and I do think he is used to playing opponents who are stronger than the one he will face in the First Round here. You can see the decline in the service numbers, but Verdasco's returning ability should keep him in a strong position in this match.

The Spaniard will certainly feel that will be the case against a limited returner like Ymer, especially when he plays at the highest level of the ATP. And it is Verdasco's returning numbers that are likely to keep the young Swedish player under immense pressure for much of this match that is the reason I am going to look for Verdasco to cover this number.

Those return numbers become much stronger when facing players Ranked outside the top 100, although Verdasco was beaten by one such player in Budapest earlier in 2017. It will take a huge upset for Ymer to be able to follow that up with his own upset considering he is 1-11 against top 50 Ranked players in his career and is likely to be in tough spots throughout this match.

As long as Verdasco is focused, it feels like he is going to be too strong and is able to battle past Ymer with a 6-4, 6-2 kind of win.


Sorana Cirstea - 4.5 games v Ana Bogdan: Two Romanian players meet in the First Round at the WTA Bucharest and I do think the higher Ranked player will be able to make it through to the next Round. That player is Sorana Cirstea who has used her success at a lower level in 2016 to help propel her back up the World Rankings in 2017 as she is back on the regular WTA Tour.

Cirstea faces her compatriot Ana Bogdan who has yet to earn the consistent results to be playing on the WTA Tour on a regular basis. The best results tend to come on the clay though and that makes Bogdan a dangerous opponent for Cirstea having also beaten her last year at the US Open.

The return game is where Bogdan has struggled to make her impact and she is going to be faced with a decent Cirstea serve. It has also meant Bogdan is perhaps under a bit more pressure to protect her own serve when making less of an impact on return as she would have liked, and I am very much expecting Cirstea to have success in those games too.

The fear when backing Cirstea is her own inconsistencies which can see her drop a set by a wide margin of games which will make covering this number almost impossible. However, Cirstea has a solid 10-3 record on the clay when facing players Ranked outside the top 100 while being Ranked inside the top 100 herself, and Cirstea would have covered this margin of games eight times in those ten wins.

It feels like Bogdan may just struggle to stay with Cirstea over the course of the match and I am looking for the latter to fight her way to a 6-4, 6-3 win.

MY PICKS: Jiri Vesely - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-0, + 2 Units (2 Units Staked, + 100% Yield)