Boxing Picks 2025- Oleksandr Usyk vs Daniel Dubois II (Saturday 19th July)

It has been a couple of months since the last Boxing Picks post and that is largely down to wanting to take a break after a disappointing opening four months.

Some bad luck has been a part of the problem, but there have been some poor picks and it was just nice to spend a bit of time enjoying the sport without making selections.

There have been some big fighters out in the time between picks, and the stronger backing being put forward by Turki Alalshikh in partnership with DAZN means the days of having one fight per year as one of the top names is over. The likes of Brian Norman Jr, Devin Haney, Naoya Inoue will be out in big events later in the year, while the announcement of the David Benavidez vs Anthony Yarde headliner for November is already building excitement.

In previous years June, July and August have tended to slow down as far as the Boxing events are concerned, but the investors in the sport want to make it more of a year-round spectacle. That has helped with some of the headline acts that have been out, including another big Ring card in New York City last weekend, and having all of the Heavyweight World Titles on the line in mid-July underlines the point.

Oleksandr Usyk vs Daniel Dubois II may not have picked up the back pages of the sporting world as it would have done if the British representative was Anthony Joshua or Tyson Fury, but this is still a big fight.

The undercard is disappointing to say the least, while the Boxing world will also have a very keen interest in a returning Manny Pacquiao as he bids to become World Champion again.

There is a big rematch on that card between Sebastian Fundora and Tim Tszyu, while Bam Rodriguez looks to Unify before also joining the Night of Champions card that Riyadh are putting together for November.

It is a busy weekend for fight fans to say the least.

2024 was a positive year for the Boxing Picks, but it has been tough work in 2025.

There are still five months of the year to go and with some big fights to come, but picking up some momentum is key out of the short break taken. This is not going to be easy, but there is time to put back to back years on the board with a positive return and that has to be the focus through the remainder of the calendar year.

Oleksandr Usyk vs Daniel Dubois II

Having won the Undisputed Heavyweight Title when beating Tyson Fury for the first time, Oleksandr Usyk is looking to become a two-time, four belt World Champion in the box office Division in Boxing.

He is 38 years old now and it has long felt that Father Time would be the one opponent that would eventually get the better of Oleksandr Usyk, although there has not been any sign of decline in his performances.

The Ukrainian is not the most active of fighters and since beating Tony Bellew in late 2018 he has fought twice in the same calendar year just once. That was last year when getting the better of Tyson Fury twice, but now Oleksandr Usyk returns to London for the first time in four years to turn back another British fighter in what is expected to be the sole outing of 2025.

It is another rematch and does mean Usyk has not taken on anyone outside of Anthony Joshua (twice), Daniel Dubois and Tyson Fury (twice) since beating Dereck Chisora back in 2020.

This is a much different Daniel Dubois compared with the one that Oleksandr Usyk beat in Poland in 2023, although the former continues to take a lot of confidence from what he felt was a legitimate Knock Down in the Fifth Round. The referee called it a low blow, and the feeling it was low, but Daniel Dubois and his team believe they were robbed and should have been in the Undisputed bout against Tyson Fury instead of the unbeaten World Champion.

A win over Jarrell Miller to close out 2023 rebuilt some of the confidence and Daniel Dubois followed up with victories over Filip Hrgovic and Anthony Joshua. The performances look to be improving after each of those fights, which means his team are very confident that Daniel Dubois has the right mentality to fulfil his dreams, but he had to withdraw from a fight with Joseph Parker earlier this year and that means Dubois has actually been out of the ring for longer than his opponent.

You have to give Daniel Dubois a lot of respect for the way he has bounced back from that defeat to Oleksandr Usyk, especially as many felt he had given up on the night. His trainer, Don Charles, has instilled plenty of belief in his fighter and is another deserving of respect, but this is a huge challenge for the younger fighter.

Unlike the last three opponents beaten, Oleksandr Usyk has strong footwork and countering ability to give Daniel Dubois problems.

Making him reset before throwing can just wear down Dubois, while the expectation is that the latter is going to employ different tactics compared to that night when beaten in Poland. This time Daniel Dubois will likely want to get on the front foot and try and bully Oleksandr Usyk, but the Ukrainian has seen almost everything in Boxing.

Fighters can age overnight, which is always going to be a concern with Oleksandr Usyk, especially with the tough nights he has been through, but the Champion hasn't shown many signs of slippage.

Daniel Dubois could have some early successes, but Oleksandr Usyk has been improved in rematches with Anthony Joshua and Tyson Fury having had the previous Rounds to build up his knowledge of the opponent. The wins produced by Dubois will have this team shouting out how different their fighter is compared with two years ago, but this is the ultimate challenge in the Heavyweight Division.

There is a feeling that Oleksandr Usyk can weather an early storm and that may just break the heart of the challenger.

Pop shotting, countering, making Daniel Dubois think and think again, while keeping the feet moving and forcing Dubois to dance to his tune can see Oleksandr Usyk turn the screw, much as he did two years ago. I think Daniel Dubois will want to show how much stronger he is mentally and physically, but the gas tank may end up running close to empty when either an accumulation of shots puts him down or a careful referee steps in to stop what may feel like an increasingly one-sided contest.

When this Heavyweight World Title was announced, the rumour mill ramped up about the kind of fights we would be getting on the undercard.

Instead it is something of a disappointment and falls short of the undercard that was put together for the Chris Eubank Jr-Conor Benn fight at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Solomon Dacres is returning after being Stopped by David Adeleye in the First Round last December and he is in with another unbeaten Ukrainian in Vladyslav Sirenko.

The latter is stepping up his level in some respects, while Dacres has plenty to prove.

It could end up being a shoot out in the Heavyweight Division and the power of Vladyslav Sirenko could see him come out on top.

Another Heavyweight contest on the undercard features Lawrence Okolie as he looks to move another step closer to challenging for a World Title.

There is plenty of reason to believe the World Titles could fragment over the next several months, especially if Oleksandr Usyk is the main event winner. Lawrence Okolie is Ranked highly by the WBC and he can retain his place in those Rankings by seeing off Kevin Lerena.

The South African has been floating between Bridgerweight and Heavyweight having begun his career at Cruiserweight and Kevin Lerena is perhaps best known for putting Daniel Dubois down three times in the First Round in December 2022.

Ultimately it was Dubois who rallied for a Third Round Stoppage, but Kevin Lerena did manage to go the distance with Justis Huni last year.

He will look to make things tough for Lawrence Okolie and there is always a concern that the British fighter will resort to his jab and grab tactic that can be so infuriating to watch.

Ultimately Lawrence Okolie has to look to make a statement and it does feel like he has the power and the set up to land a few big shots on Kevin Lerena and force a Stoppage in the contest.

Mario Barrios vs Manny Pacquiao

A legend returns to the ring on Saturday night and it is no surprise that Manny Pacquiao has been offered the chance to win a World Title in his comeback.

Rumours have long been running that Manny Pacquiao wanted to return to the ring, but four years have passed since he was pretty well beaten by Yordenis Ugas. He looked like a fighter that had seen Father Time catch up with him, but at 46 years old, Pac Man believes there is still something left in the tank.

He is returning to a Welterweight Division that is lacking a true number one and the feeling is that he is taking on the weakest of the three World Champions.

Mario Barrios had lost consecutive fights to Gervonta Davis and Keith Thurman in 2021 and 2022, but he picked up the WBC Interim World Title when getting the better of the aforementioned Ugas in September 2023. Even then, he has not really convinced as a World Champion since being elevated to full status and Barrios has not been out since November 2024.

Despite all of that, Mario Barrios is the fresher and much more active fighter and he should have all of the tools to break down an all-time great.

Like so many great Champions of the past, Manny Pacquiao refuses to accept that his greatness has dipped and that he can turn back the clock. He might even start out pretty well, but Pac Man looked well past his best in his last bout and the time spent away from the ring cannot have done him any favours at all.

When at his best, Pacquiao would have rolled past Mario Barrios, but at this stage of their respective careers, the World Champion should be able to turn the screw and potentially force an empathetic Stoppage.

The chief support on this card is a rematch between Sebastian Fundora and Tim Tszyu and this is likely going to be a fascinating fight to watch.

Many have criticised Tim Tszyu's team for not withdrawing their fighter after he suffered an awful gash in the first fight- that withdrawal would have come at a time when the Australian could return home with his World Titles, but instead the Tim Tszyu career has just left the rail tracks.

Winning the rematch would rejuvenate the career, but this is a very tough fight and it is one that is likely going to have plenty of action attached to i.

Picking a winner looks tough and this is a bout worthy of viewing without landing on one side.

Matchroom are also running a card this Saturday in Texas and the lead is Bam Rodriguez who is looking to Unify World Titles.

He has already had another bout announced on the Night of Champions in Riyadh in November and that can be risky, but Bam should have too much for Phumelela Cafu, the WBO World Champion.

The chief support is an intriguing Super Middleweight bout between Diego Pacheco and Trevor McCumby.

The latter gave Caleb Plant all he could handle, but was eventually Stopped in the Ninth Round, and that has given Trevor McCumby another opportunity.

It will also give Diego Pacheco the motivation to put a stronger performance on the board than Plant, even if the latter has lost his way a little bit after suffering an upset loss last time out. That result should focus Pacheco, who believes he is the best Super Middleweight out there and looking to earn a shot at the winner of Canelo-Bud Crawford.

Fans will only call for that if Pacheco can continue to impress and he has the tools to secure a mid-fight Stoppage.

MY PICKS: Oleksandr Usyk to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.75 William Hill (1 Unit)

Vladyslav Sirenko to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.10 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Lawrence Okolie to Win by KO/TKO @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Mario Barrios to Win by KO/TKO @ 2.50 Bet365 (2 Units)

Diego Pacheco to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2025: 18-50, - 25.37 Units (83 Units Staked, - 30.57% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 19th)

It felt like deja vu on Tuesday- I swear I lived the exact same day when it came to the Tennis Picks back in April when the Madrid Masters took place.

Once again I have fallen foul of a truly miserable day when seemingly anything that could conspire to go wrong would go wrong.

There is no doubt in my mind that Mikael Ymer's eighteen month suspension, which was announced before brother Elias entered the court in Bastad, had an affect on the performance of the other Ymer on the Tour.

However, he was not the better player and ultimately deserved to lose, whether he was unfocused or not.

The Picks that actually grate on me much more are the ones where everything points in one direction, but the exact opposite has happened.

Both Alexander Zverev and Tomas Martin Etcheverry were on the wrong end of the very fine margins as they failed to cover to my absolute irritation- let's face facts, if you're creating a lot more Break Points than your opponent, you are clearly doing something right on the court, but both of those players played those big points incredibly poorly.

Alexander Zverev had fifteen Break Points compared to his opponent's six in the match... But Zverev broke four times and lost serve three times.

In the first two sets Tomas Martin Etcheverry played, he had seven Break Points and gave up two... Yep, you've figured it out, Etcheverry broke once and his opponent managed to break twice!

So between those two players selected, they played thirty Break Points and won eight of those!! On the return of serve, Zverev and Etcheverry created twenty-two Break Points and won five of those key points.

That is quite something when you think about it.

After a really solid first half of the year, this is the second day outside of a Grand Slam that has given me a thumping, but it would be a lot more concerning if Picks were being dominated. Ultimately both of those matches could be played again and if the same number of Break Points were played, the likes of Zverev and Etcheverry would win say half of those and in all likelihood would have both had a serious case for the win and cover.

This is the main reason I have not lost faith in the way Picks are being identified, but it would be nice to have a strong end to this week after the debacle of Tuesday. It won't be easy if these margins continue to test the patience, but being patient is the key in a long season when you have to accept some ups and downs.

Over the last month it does feel like we have been on a considerable dip, but I would accept seeing my Picks dominate the Break Point count knowing that the numbers should even out.

Zizou Bergs - 1.5 games v Jurij Rodionov: Both of these players have come through the Qualifiers in Gstaad, although it does feel like Zizou Bergs has played the better players to reach the Second Round here.

In saying that, confidence can be built by dismissing players in the manner that Jurij Rodionov has done and he will need to serve well to win this match.

Over the course of the season and in recent years, you would have to give Bergs the edge in clay court performances compared with the Austrian. His serve has been slightly more effective, while Zizou Bergs has proved to be the superior return player on the two in 2023.

The three previous meetings between the players have all been on grass courts, but you might have felt those courts would have suited Jurij Rodionov more than Zizou Bergs. Last month they split two grass court matches so Bergs will be confident he has the tennis to win this match, especially on the red dirt where he has tended to do his best work over the last twelve months.

Conditions in Gstaad tend to make this a faster clay court, which will aid Rodionov, but Zizou Bergs can get the better of him to reach this ATP Quarter Final with the expectation that the Belgian can produce the stronger return numbers on the day.

Francisco Cerundolo - 4.5 games v Luca Van Assche: He won the title in Eastbourne in the week before Wimbledon began, but Francisco Cerundolo was not able to keep the grass court successes going as he was dumped out in the Second Round.

Over the last eighteen months, the Argentine has been one of the most improved players on the Tour and last summer he was able to win the title in Bastad before reaching the Semi Final at Hamburg.

Things didn't really go to plan for Francisco Cerundolo after that Semi Final run so he has very little to defend in terms of Ranking points over the next few months. First he has to try and defend the title he won here and you have to believe Cerundolo will be motivated to have a good run in the European clay court events being played.

A bye through to the Second Round means Francisco Cerundolo is playing his first match this week and he is taking on young Frenchman Luca Van Assche who has flashed potential as he grows onto the Tour. A First Round win means Van Assche should be ready to deal with the conditions in Bastad, although he has yet to have a really big defining win in his young career.

Only one top 50 Ranking win on any surface backs up that perception of Luca Van Assche, but he should have some successes in this one against an opponent who is not going to blow you away behind his serve. However, Van Assche will have difficulties in containing the Francisco Cerundolo return game and that is effectively expected to make the difference in this Second Round match.

Luca Van Assche did play well enough to take a set from Novak Djokovic on the clay courts in April, but he was worn down over three sets in that match and Cerundolo should be able to something similar in this encounter.

MY PICKS: Zizou Bergs - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Francisco Cerundolo - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Lorenzo Musetti - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Federico Coria - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Kaja Juvan - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Yulia Putintseva - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Sara Sorribes Tormo - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)

Qinwen Zheng - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Kevin Anderson @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

John Isner @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-5, - 8.40 Units (12 Units Staked, - 70% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (July 19th)

The hot weather sweeping across Europe had an impact in the early matches at the three stops taken in by the ATP and WTA Tours and there is another challenging day ahead for the players getting into First and Second Round action.

Wet weather is expected later in the week and the cooler conditions will benefit all as the events in Hamburg, Gstaad and Palermo continue.

Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: After snapping a long losing run to Fabio Fognini when these two players last met in 2019, Aljaz Bedene was back in a familiar position in Belgrade earlier this season.

Once again Fabio Fognini got the better of Bedene to extend his dominance of the head to head between the players and they are meeting on the clay courts again, this time in the First Round in Hamburg. All but one of their previous ten matches have been played on the clay courts and Fabio Fognini leads the Aljaz Bedene 8-1 as these two veterans of the Tour meet with some important Ranking points on the line.

The two players are slipping down the World Rankings and further drops, or the end of the Protected Ranking in Aljaz Bedene's case, will mean having to Qualify for some of the bigger tournaments on the Tour. I don't really envision either wanting to do that long-term and so it is important to pick up some Ranking points in the summer clay court swing before the majority of players head to North America to begin preparation for the US Open.

We have already seen the signs of the pressure that comes with having to Qualify for main draws last week when Fabio Fognini was beaten in the final Round of Qualifying for Bastad. He did eventually make the main draw as a Lucky Loser, but was beaten in the First Round and the Italian is clearly a player that has seen his better days.

His numbers back that up, but Aljaz Bedene has had an even more difficult season on the red dirt and he has a 3-7 record overall in 2022. The early defeat at Wimbledon under a Protected Ranking means the Slovenian has not played for three weeks now and I do think he is vulnerable in this match up even when at his best.

Fabio Fognini has a vulnerable serve on this surface, but his return game has proven to be a big problem for Aljaz Bedene to deal with. It has meant that Bedene has broken in 25% of the return games against Fognini on the clay compared with the 33% mark produced by the Italian and that is a significant edge.

It ended up being a very comfortable win for Fabio Fognini when these two met in Belgrade in April, but this one is likely to be a big tighter considering the lack of confidence that Fognini is seemingly playing with. Even then, the Italian should have the tennis to break down the Aljaz Bedene game and I think he will eventually be able to do enough to cover what is a relatively wide spread for a best of three set match.

Laslo Djere - 2.5 games v Borna Coric: There have been a number of big name players that have missed significant time on the Tour due to injury and who have returned in 2022 looking to rediscover their best competitive form. The biggest is Dominic Thiem who has finally gotten back into something of a winning habit over the last couple of weeks, but don't underestimate the kind of talent that Borna Coric has and the hope is he can finally begin to fulfil that.

He reached a career high of Number 12 in the World Rankings, while Borna Coric looked to have the tennis that could make him very effective on all surfaces. At 25 years old, the Croatian could still have a very bright future, but the long layoff has left him vulnerable in 2022 and he has only won two of the eight matches played on the main Tour since returning.

With no World Ranking points on offer, I am perhaps not that surprised that Borna Coric decided to skip Wimbledon and instead play a couple of Challenger events on the clay courts. The Croatian will hold a Protected Ranking for now, but Borna Coric is currently outside the top 150 in the World Rankings and it is really important for him to pick up some momentum and plenty of wins to avoid having to play those smaller events more regularly.

It was a positive month for Borna Coric with a Quarter Final run in Perugia and then winning the title in Parma, but he returned with a First Round loss in a Challenger event last week and he may have hoped for a much better draw here in Hamburg. He has already been beaten by Laslo Djere once this season and the latter also holds a 2-0 head to head advantage over Borna Coric with both wins being earned on the clay courts.

Laslo Djere has become a very steady, consistent player on the clay courts, although he doesn't seem to have the extra gear to really beat the best players on the Tour. He has been able to challenge them on this surface and he put together a decent tournament in Bastad last week before losing to Andrey Rublev in the Quarter Final.

The numbers remain solid and Laslo Djere will feel he can get a little more from his return game than Borna Coric in this First Round match to make all of the difference in the outcome of it. When they met in Rome in May, the scoreboard suggests it was an easy enough win for Djere, but the Serb will be the first to admit that he played the big points much more efficiently than Borna Coric and that is going to have to be the case when they meet in Hamburg too.

There hasn't been much between these players in the two previous clay court matches, but Laslo Djere has been able to exert enough pressure to see Borna Coric crack. At this stage of their careers, I think that is still the case for Djere as Borna Coric continues his recovery to the level he was producing a couple of years ago, and I think the higher Ranked player will make it a hat-trick of victories over this opponent on the red dirt.

MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Laslo Djere - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jaume Munar - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Richard Gasquet @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cristian Garin - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Thiago Monteiro - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Marc-Andrea Huesler - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-3, - 1.14 Units (12 Units Staked, - 9.50% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 19th)

It was a solid enough Thursday with a 2-1 record from the Tennis Picks, although I do think there was every chance all three picks would have come back as winners if Pablo Cuevas had kept himself together in the middle of his defeat to Federico Delbonis.

Now we move onto the Quarter Final matches to be played on Friday around the five tournaments that are taking place this week. Unfortunately my internet has been down around the house on Thursday evening which means I have not been able to write out full analysis for the selections being made.

The fortunate part is that I did have time to research the four selections I am placing in the MY PICKS section below which will hopefully add to the positive start made on Thursday.


MY PICKS: Joao Sousa @ 2.30 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-1, + 2.20 Units (6 Units Staked, + 36.67% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (July 19th)

The tournaments continue in the five destinations this week and we are already getting down to the final few days of the events which have come hot on the heels of the end of the third Grand Slam of the season.

While the majority of those players expecting to challenge at the US Open will be resting up and recharging the batteries, these weeks are very important to those players down the World Rankings with the open looking draws giving them a chance to pick up vital Ranking points.

Like Wednesday, I will add those Tennis Picks from the ATP Newport event on Thursday, but the way the Second Round is split in two at the majority of events means the markets are available for the other four tournaments and the matches scheduled to be played on Thursday.

This has been a tough week so I've not had a lot of time. While I have a full analysis of one of the matches, I am adding the other Tennis Picks to the 'MY PICKS' section below.


Sam Stosur - 4.5 games v Patty Schnyder: Once upon a time Patty Schnyder was a top ten Ranked player on the WTA Tour but she decided to retire in 2011 and didn't return to the Tour until 2015. Her comeback has unsurprisingly not reached the kind of levels that Kim Clijsters did simply because Schnyder was already well into her mid 30s when she returned to the Tour.

The love for the game has kept Schnyder going when others may have decided it was not worth battling on the ITF Tour and the lower level events. Wins at that level has helped Schnyder get back into the top 200 of the World Rankings and she is still trending in a positive direction, although failures to Qualify for the Grand Slam events at the Australian Open and Wimbledon show Schnyder is still not quite up to the level she would like.

This is only the seventh match Schnyder will have played on the main Tour on the clay courts since returning from retirement and a player like Sam Stosur should be too good for her.

Stosur is another veteran of the Tour these days and her best days are clearly behind her, but she remains very competitive on the clay courts. The Australian dominated another older player in Francesca Schiavone in the First Round and her numbers have to be put into context compared with Schnyder's simply because of the differing levels they have been operating at.

While only holding an 8-6 record on the clay courts in 2018, there haven't been too many bad losses for Stosur as she continues to see off those opponents she would expect to beat. There has been a decline in the return numbers which will be of concern when you think of the handicap number in this one, but Stosur will put Schnyder under pressure thanks to a serve that remains very good.

It won't always be easy for Stosur, but I do think she can win this match and she can cover a big number.

MY PICKS: Sam Stosur - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Martin Klizan - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-5, + 2.48 Units (24 Units Staked, + 10.33% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 19th)

There does feel like there is a distinct lack of quality out on the Tour this week which isn't a surprise days after Wimbledon came to a close. While some decent players are in action, the bigger matches are unlikely to be seen until the end of the week when those players are matched up against one another.

The Second Round matches might be better than we saw earlier in the week, but there are still enough mismatches to have some very short priced favourites on Wednesday when the first half of those Second Round matches are played at the five main Tour events.


Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 games v Renzo Olivo: I don't think I will ever forget the way the match went the last time Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and Renzo Olivo met on the Tour. That came earlier in 2017 and Schwartzman somehow failed to cover this number of games despite producing 21 break points compared with just the 9 for Olivo, but the higher Ranked Argentinian could not find the breaks easy to come by.

That does mean Schwartzman has created 37 break points in the last two matches between these players, but his conversion rate has not been anything to write home about. That is a concern because maybe Olivo has some mental strength which enables him to get out of tough spots, but I am more encouraged by Schwartzman's return numbers against players Ranked outside the top 50.

Those numbers on the clay suggest Schwartzman won't be as generous at letting his break points slip away, while his service numbers have also been more productive. Of course this is a vulnerable serve, but Olivo has struggled when playing the top players on the clay as his recent 1-5 record against top 50 players highlights.

Olivo may also have the edge of being over in Bastad over the last two weeks and so accustomed to the conditions, but I think it is Schwartzman who will have the majority of the play.

I do expect breaks of serve for both players, but Schwartzman has the numbers which point to a 7-5, 6-3 kind of win for him in this one.


Pablo Cuevas - 4.5 games v Henri Laaksonen: A knee injury ruled Pablo Cuevas out of Wimbledon the year after he had reached the Final in Nottingham on the grass. The absence from the Tour with an issue that has blighted him before is an obvious concern, but I also know that some players have previously skipped the grass in order to keep their knees from wearing down, particularly Rafael Nadal.

That is the biggest question mark about this match which should be one that Cuevas is very comfortable in. While he is one of the better clay court players on the Tour, Cuevas faces Henri Laaksonen who is still finding his feet at the highest level of the Tour.

There have been six occasions Laaksonen has played a top 50 Ranked player on the clay and he has lost all six of those matches. He was narrowly beaten by Andreas Seppi in a Davis Cup tie, but the other five losses have come in one sided fashion and his struggles on the return are likely to be a big issue here.

Cuevas has loved playing those further down the World Rankings where he is able to generate plenty of success on the return of serve. That could be a big issue for Laaksonen in this one if Cuevas is feeling good and I do think the higher Ranked player will be able to put his opponent under pressure.

The biggest question remains the Cuevas health, but if he feels ready to go in this one, I think he can come through with a 6-3, 6-4 win.


Jiri Vesely - 4.5 games v Radu Albot: Jiri Vesely got it done when picking him in the First Round and I do think he can cover this number against Radu Albot too.

The numbers against players Ranked outside the top 100 on the clay continue to impress from Vesely who has improved to 7-1 in that spot in 2017 to add to the 9-1 record he had in 2016. The serve becomes a big weapon for Vesely at this level, but the key is the way he has been able to get his teeth into the return games which was highlighted in his impressive First Round win over Norbert Gombos.

I will be looking for that dominance to show up at some point in this match too against Radu Albot who is coming off a decent grass court showing. However he is 0-4 when facing top 50 Ranked players on the clay courts and Albot's issues begin with what is a vulnerable serve, one that I would expect Vesely to exploit in this Second Round match.

He hasn't returned well enough against the top players, while Albot's overall return numbers on the clay makes it difficult to believe he will be capable of sticking with his opponent in this match.

I would expect Vesely to be in a position to break serve three or four times in this match and a decent day behind serve should see him come through with a 6-3, 6-4 win in this one.

MY PICKS: Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-2, + 0 Units (8 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (July 19th)

There were plenty of matches being played on Monday but not a lot of angles that I wanted to be involved in, or not many I would have wanted to play with any confidence.

On Tuesday there are another huge round of matches from the events being played in Europe, but once again it looks a difficult day to make picks unless the schedule from the three events in North America are much more appealing.


Nicolas Almagro - 3.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: It was all about representing his country in the Davis Cup last week for Damir Dzumhur who will be playing at the Olympic Games for Bosnia and Herzegovina. It might be a little strange for him not to make the move to the hard courts in preparation for the Olympic Games, especially as Dzumhur has played well on that surface.

The feeling is that Dzumhur probably feels he doesn't have to have the same expenses staying in Europe playing on the clay rather than moving to the United States after playing on Sunday. He will also have to be respected on this surface considering some of his performances on the clay earlier this season, but some of the losses show the limitations he has.

Without a big serve, Dzumhur simply doesn't win a lot of points easily and that is an area Nicolas Almagro should have an edge. However the Spaniard is not as consistent as he used to be, even on the clay courts, and that was shown in his defeat to Paul-Henri Mathieu last week in Hamburg.

However Almagro dominated that match and should really have got it done against the veteran Frenchman. His best results still come on the clay and having a little more power behind the groundstrokes should help Almagro eventually come through 46, 63, 63.


Albert Montanes - 1.5 games v Gerald Melzer: Albert Montanes is a veteran of the Tour these days and his best results do come on the Challenger circuit, but the clay remains his favourite surface and he has performed well on the main Tour when getting into those draws.

There has been one Semi Final and a run to the Last 16 in another tournament this season and Montanes is going up against an opponent who spends the vast majority of his time in draws outside of the main Tour. Gerald Melzer is going to have the support of the home crowd, but he is yet to win a match on the main Tour this season and is 0-3 on the clay.

However Melzer has to be respected for the results he has achieved at the lower level which makes him a threat to Montanes. Both players will believe this is the perfect First Round match for them as they will be accustomed to the level of tennis they will face, but Montanes holds the slight edge for me.

The lefty serve and the fact that Melzer has won a couple of titles in Challenger events on the clay makes him a danger. It has to be noted that those title wins came very early in 2016 and recent form has not been as strong and I think Montanes will be able to hold a narrow edge in the extended rallies which can help him come through in three sets.


Julia Goerges - 2.5 games v Polona Hercog: Julia Goerge was defeated early in Gstaad last week but she wasn't helped by the poor weather which meant playing back to back matches in the same day while her opponent was well rested. The performance in the First Round was encouraging, but Goerges has to find a little more consistency to get her moving back up the World Ranking.

This week she goes to Bastad and will be expected to beat Polona Hercog even though the latter reached the Quarter Final in Bucharest last week. However it was Goerges who got the better of Hercog when these players met on the clay in Rome earlier this year and she will feel she holds the power advantage in this one.

The question mark around the Goerges game is always about how well she is going to serve on a given day and whether she can get a grip on the unforced errors she is likely to make. The clay courts should also give the German the advantage in this one with Hercog struggling outside of her solid run in Bucharest, although it looks like she simply might have a liking for that tournament having reached the Semi Final in 2015.

While Goerges might have some confidence issues, she still has to be in a stronger place than Hercog and I think that will lead her to a 64, 64 win in this First Round match.


Jelena Ostapenko - 3.5 games v Catherine Bellis: Jelena Ostapenko comes into the Stanford tournament as the Number 6 Seed and she will meet an American Wild Card, Catherine Bellis, in the First Round. This won't be an easy match for the Seeded player as Bellis has been playing in a number of hard court tournaments over the last few weeks compared with Ostapenko who will be coming in off the grass courts.

Bellis has played well too, albeit at a lower level than the tournament in Stanford will be. She has won a title and reached the Semi Final of another tournament on the hard courts which will have given her confidence, but none of those wins are against players that regularly play at this level as Ostapenko does.

They did meet last year in the US Open Qualifiers which resulted in a straight sets win for Ostapenko, but Bellis might have improved for her experiences over the last eleven months. However I still think she is growing and the young American might not be fully ready to beat someone with the potential Ostapenko has shown.

The one element that might be to Bellis' favour is that Ostapenko has not had a really strong year on the hard courts outside of her one deep run to the Final in Doha. Take that away and Ostapenko is just 1-3 on the hard courts and she has lost three straight matches on this surface. Both players should have their chances in this one too, but ultimately I think Ostapenko is in a stronger place in her career at this moment and can win 64, 64.


Eugenie Bouchard - 3.5 games v Camila Giorgi: There have been some signs that Eugenie Bouchard is beginning to rediscover some consistency in her game. After a breakthrough year on the Tour which featured a number of strong runs in the Grand Slam events, Bouchard has already doubled the number of wins on Tour than she achieved in 2015.

There is still room for improvement as she begins moving back towards the top 32 in the World Rankings which will have her Seeded for the US Open. A strong run in Washington will give her a chance to do that and the Canadian has put her best results together on the hard courts this season.

Bouchard has reached a couple of Finals on hard courts in 2016 without bringing a title home, but she should be confident she can beat an inconsistent Camila Giorgi who had a poor grass court season. The last two matches between these players have resulted in a couple of wins for Bouchard including in straight sets in Hobart earlier this season.

Giorgi has had some tough draws on the hard courts this season, but even then she is only 14-18 over the last couple of years. If she serves as well as she can, Giorgi will be a big threat to Bouchard, but the latter should have enough success against that shot to extract errors from the Italian's game.

Both players should earn their break point chances, but I think Bouchard will be a little more solid at the big moments considering the recent form of both players. The hard courts should be much more to Bouchard's liking and I like her to come through 75, 64.


Donald Young - 3.5 games v Ernesto Escobedo: These days Donald Young is no longer the upcoming star of American's tennis, but instead a veteran of the Tour who has not achieved the stardom that many expected for him. He is a solid player who can put together really good tournaments, but Young is also capable of throwing in a terrible match against any player he faces, even those he would usually be expected to beat.

Young is coming off the grass courts where he reached the Quarter Final last week in Newport, and that is where Ernesto Escobedo will look to take advantage with his knowledge of the conditions here.

Escobedo has come through two Qualifiers without dropping a set but he is still trying to find his way on the professional circuit. This will be the first match he has played on the hard courts in a main ATP Tour event and Escobedo will have to improve his performances to challenge players at this level with his results on the hard courts at Challenger and Future level a little inconsistent.

 A player like Young should be able to expose the inconsistencies as long as he is not giving up a boatload of unforced errors and I think the older American will find his way to break point opportunities. It might take a couple of twists and turns to get to the end, but Young should use all of his experience to help him through to a 64, 64 win in this one.


Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Daniel Evans: Last week saw Daniel Evans pull out of the Davis Cup tie for Great Britain with a shoulder issue, but he looked very good in the First Round when dismissing Benjamin Becker very comfortably. Things should be tougher in the Second Round in Washington when Evans faces Grigor Dimitrov, although the latter has been having trouble getting out of a slump in form which has lasted at least twelve months.

That has seen the Dimitrov World Ranking drop to 40 and he is coming off underwhelming clay and grass court season. Being back on the hard courts will suit the Bulgarian as 14 of his 20 wins in 2016 have come on the surface and the next few weeks will be important for Dimitrov as he doesn't have a lot of points to defend and can start moving the right way in the World Rankings.

Dimitrov can't underestimate Evans having played a tight three setter against him on the grass courts a few seasons ago. However he will feel he can get into the Evans service games which will give Dimitrov a chance to dominate the rallies when having the chance to play first strike tennis, although the lack of confidence means unforced errors are likely to be flowing at times too.

I do think Dimitrov has the edge when it comes to the serve and the general power off the ground. A lot of this match is going to do with how Dimitrov copes mentally through his recent form, but I think the hard courts will suit him. Evans had a very strong run on the Challenger Tour at this time last year, but this is a different level for him and I think Dimitrov is able to come through with a 63, 64 win.


Steve Johnson - 2.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: This is a career high Ranking for Steve Johnson after a very successful run on the grass courts over the last month, but he will be looking to kick on back on the North American hard courts. This should be a really strong time of the year for Johnson and he should turn around what has been an inconsistent season on the surface up to now because of the increase in confidence.

He will need all of that confidence against Adrian Mannarino who has the tendency to make players perform at a lower level than they have been with his ability to get plenty of balls back in play. The Mannarino service is still a weakness which can be exploited on the faster surfaces but he has had some decent results on the hard courts which includes beating Sam Querrey.

On the other hand, Mannarino did go 1-4 in North America on the hard courts at this time last year and he was 4-3 the year before which suggests it might not be his favoured time of the year. His lefty serve can cause some problems, but Johnson has to believe he can get plenty of balls back and pressure Mannarino with his serve if he is getting plenty of firsts in play.

Their two previous matches have both gone the distance with one win apiece, the most recent coming just last month when Johnson beat Mannarino at Queens. The underdog has won both matches which might concern me a little, but I am looking for Johnson to frank his win with another here and move past Mannarino 63, 36, 63.

MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Albert Montanes - 1.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Donald Young - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)

Davis Cup Tennis Picks 2015 (July 19th)

While Argentina and Belgium have booked their place in the Davis Cup Semi Final, the ties between Australia and Kazakhstan and Great Britain and France are going into the last day with their places in the Semi Final on the line.

Great Britain's Doubles win means they are now strong favourites to reach a surprising Semi Final, the first in the Davis Cup since 1981, and they will be hosting that Semi Final in September.

Andy Murray will be expected to beat Gilles Simon or Richard Gasquet on grass, while Great Britain will know who they are going to be playing with the Australia-Kazakhstan tie to be completed in the early hours of Sunday morning.

A Doubles win for Australia keeps them alive in the tie, and you have to make Australia the favourites to win the last couple of rubbers to move into what would be an awesome atmosphere against Great Britain. Both Nick Kyrgios and Thanasi Kokkinakis are going to have to be a lot better than they were on Friday if they are going to help Australia into the Semi Finals and I would be surprised if the captain decides to draft in Sam Groth or Lleyton Hewitt instead of either player.

Kazakhstan might feel their best chance is with Mikhail Kukushkin after an impressive win over Kokkinakis, but they have shown there is a depth of players who raise their game when in Davis Cup duty. It could be a very fun day in Darwin in the final two matches scheduled on Sunday.

Sunday is also going to see the Finals in Bastad, Bucharest and Newport all played, while the draws for next week events will all be ready as well as qualifying getting a little closer to being completed.


Nick Kyrgios-Mikhail Kukushkin Over 37.5 Total Games: The fourth rubber of the Australia-Kazakhstan tie sees the number one players of both nation competing as the home team looks to stay alive in this Quarter Final tie.

They will need Nick Kyrgios to play the big points much better than he did in a stunning loss in the second rubber against Aleksandr Nedovyesov. That match ended up being a four set loss for Kyrgios who served well for the most part, but couldn't really get into any return games and was beaten in four very close sets.

It won't get easier against Mikhail Kukushkin who was in very good form in his straight sets win over Thanasi Kokkinakis as he kept his younger opponent under pressure throughout that match. It wasn't just the decent serving day that Kukushkin produced, but it was his return that was particularly effective and helped him bring up 16 break points through the match.

I would be surprised if Kyrgios is as generous as Kokkinakis was in that match, but I also think he might be put under some scoreboard pressure with the way Kukushkin has been playing.

I have to say I also didn't respect how much Kukushkin has raised his game when representing Kazakhstan and I think this is a player that will feel he has to get this done for his nation to lead them into the Semi Finals. After pushing Andy Murray all the way at Wimbledon and beating Kokkinakis here, I would be surprised if Kukushkin is blown away in this match.

He will have to serve well to keep the pressure on Kyrgios, but this looks a match that is going to go at least four sets with the possibility of at least two tie-breakers pretty high. Backing this match to go over the total games looks a decent price and I am expecting another tight match for Nick Kyrgios but perhaps one he can win the big points and keep Australia alive for the final rubber of the tie.


Thanasi Kokkinakis-Aleksandr Nedovyesov Over 39.5 Total Games: Even if Australia are to tie up this Quarter Final in rubber four, I am still expecting the fifth rubber to be tightly fought. That is especially the case if both Thanasi Kokkinakis and Aleksandr Nedovyesov play in a similar manner to what they produced on Friday as they could have the deciding rubber on their racquets today.

I was severely disappointed by Kokkinakis in his straight sets loss, while I am still not convinced he is fully satisfied with playing on the grass. Instead of aiding his serve, Kokkinakis struggled to really protect that aspect of his game and was under constant pressure from Mikhail Kukushkin, but I think there is more to come from the youngster.

On the other hand, Alexsandr Nedovyesov produced arguably his best win of his career by beating Nick Kyrgios in four sets on a grass court. However, he is outside the top 100 in the World Rankings and it is hard to imagine Nedovyesov playing the big points as effectively as he did on Friday.

He will need to serve as well as he did in the second rubber if Kazakhstan are going to get through the tie and this another match that looks to go at least four sets with each set being tightly contested. I wouldn't be surprised if we need a couple of tie-breakers in this one too and I don't think any of the players go away quietly which should make this another rubber that can go over the total games being offered.


Andy Murray - 6.5 games v Gilles Simon: Great Britain have to win one of the two remaining rubbers in this Quarter Final tie to move into the Davis Cup Semi Finals for the first time since 1981. I don't think it is unfair to anyone to say that Great Britain know it is up to Andy Murray to win another rubber if they are going to win this tie as he is set to take on Gilles Simon in the fourth rubber of the tie.

It is a match to keep an eye on because there are some suggestions that Arnaud Clement is going to pick Richard Gasquet ahead of Gilles Simon, especially as Gasquet has given Andy Murray more problems in matches at Grand Slams.

While Simon did beat Murray in Rotterdam earlier this season for the loss of six gmes and he has also won a set in the two previous matches prior to Rotterdam, it has to be pointed out that Murray has won the two previous Grand Slam matches without dropping a set.

The match up is not a great one for Simon on the grass either as he doesn't have the same penetration on this surface as Murray, although he can make life difficult for a while. Both players had good Wimbledon tournaments until running into Roger Federer, but Andy Murray has the much deeper pedigree on this surface.

I'd imagine Simon keeps it competitive in perhaps two of the sets, but I think the serve can be vulnerable and Andy Murray is capable of earning a couple of breaks in a single set. I'd pick Murray to work his way through some difficult moments to win this match 75, 64, 62 which would give Great Britain the win.

Of course this match is dependent on France keeping Simon in ahead of Richard Gasquet, but I will make an edit here if there are changes in the hour leading up to this tie and if I have a new pick in place.

MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios-Mikhail Kukushkin Over 37.5 Total Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Thanasi Kokkinakis-Alexsandr Nedovyesov Over 39.5 Total Games @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 11-12, - 3.92 Units (46 Units Staked, - 8.52% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (July 19th)

Leonardo Mayer + 2.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: I was surprised with the ease in which Philipp Kohlschreiber beat Lukas Rosol in the Quarter Final on Friday, but I expect Leonardo Mayer to give the home town favourite more problems.

It has been a good season for Mayer who is on course to surpass the number of wins he had on the main Tour over the last three years in 2014. Mayer has performed well on the clay courts which is expected of a South American and he has won the two previous meetings between these players which have both come on the surface.

Of course, Kohlschreiber will have a confidence boost by playing at home to turn that record around, but Mayer has a decent serve and won't mind getting involved in the longer rallies.

I would be looking for Mayer to win at least one set in this match which could give him every chance to get over the line with the games in hand.


David Ferrer - 5.5 games v Alexander Zverev: David Ferrer crushed Pablo Andujar in the Quarter Final played on Friday and he admitted that it is by far the best he has played this week to this point. I would argue that it was Ferrer's best performance in over two months as he has been struggling with his health.

Now he has to be careful as he takes on 17 year old Alexander Zverev who has found some very good form despite not winning a match on the main Tour before this week. He did recently win a Challenger on the clay, but this is the biggest test he has faced so far against a player that has spent a lot of time in the top five of the World Rankings.

The health of Ferrer has been a concern for me all week, but I think he can build upon his win over Andujar. As well as Zverev has done to come through the matches, he has given his opponents at least a look at his service games and I do expect Ferrer to be able to create more break point chances and actually dominate the longer rallies.

Ferrer will also have to serve well because Zverev isn't showing any nerves this week and really been in control of his emotions, but I do think the veteran gives the young player a lesson in a 64, 62 win.


Chanelle Scheepers v Jana Cepelova: She may be lower in the World Rankings and also giving up nine years in terms of age, but I do think Chanelle Scheepers can get the better of Jana Cepelova in an almost pick 'em contest.

The South African has had to battle through two Rounds in Bastad to reach this Semi Final, but she has at least shown more consistent form than Cepelova in recent weeks. Before her three wins here, Cepelova had lost seven matches in a row.

However, it does have to be remembered that Cepelova probably prefers the clay courts far more than Scheepers, although the latter has won ten of her thirteen matches this year on this surface.

Added belief from a run in Bad Gastein should help Scheepers come through the tough moments in perhaps a third straight three set win.


Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 games v Kristina Mladenovic: Caroline Wozniacki's former boyfriend may be earning all the headlines with his performance in The Open at the moment, but the Dane can move into a Final of her own by winning this match.

Wozniacki had to come through a tough Quarter Final, but she has been playing pretty well this week on the hard courts of Istanbul. She will also have a little more confidence having beaten Kristina Mladenovic earlier this year on the hard courts.

The Frenchwoman hasn't had the best of seasons to this point, but confidence can quickly turn things around and that has to be in a good place for Mladenovic. However, I think she could be frustrated by the defensive qualities of Wozniacki and I am not convinced Mladenovic has the calmness to keep in rallies if she is being forced to play extra shots consistently.

The match earlier this season ended with a 63, 64 win for Wozniacki, but she has been serving well so far this week and that may see her pick up the win with a slightly wider margin than that match in Monterrey.


Bernard Tomic - 3.5 games v Victor Estrella: There have been some strange results this week, but I really didn't see the Victor Estrella win over Richard Gasquet coming.

These are actually the first hard court wins of the season for Estrella on the main Tour, but he han't even set the Challenger circuit alight to suggest he was capable of reaching a Semi Final on the surface in an ATP 250 event.

It was a poor serving display for Gasquet to be broken three times in the Quarter Final, but Bernard Tomic has used his serve to good effect this week and I think the Australian can pick up more vital Ranking points. After some of the success he has had on the Tour, it is strange to see Tomic outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings at this point of his career.

If Tomic can look after that side of his game in this Semi Final, I would expect he can grind out chances on the Estella serve and earn a measure of revenge for a qualifier defeat to the same player in Rome earlier this season. The surface should favour Tomic more this time and I like him to win 64, 64.

MY PICKS: Leonardo Mayer + 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Chanelle Scheepers @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Bernard Tomic - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 10-12, - 4.40 Units (44 Units Staked, - 10% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2013 (July 19th)

As the week draws to a close, we have reached the Quarter Final at the tournaments being played this week. The picks have been slightly successful this week up to this point, but a little more luck will see another strong week to follow the tournaments last week and Wimbledon before that.

Nicolas Almagro - 2.5 games v Juan Monaco: This is a classic clay court match between two players that are most comfortable on this surface.

Both players will know they have what it takes to beat the other, but I do think Nicolas Almagro is playing the slightly more solid tennis.

There is no doubt that both Almagro and Juan Monaco are having down years and both could start slipping down the Rankings. However, it is Monaco that seems to have slipped a little more this season than the Spaniard and his serve can be a liability at times.

I expect there to be some gruelling rallies in the match, but I believe Almagro has the more power in the groundstrokes and the serve that will lead the match in his favour. Almagro has to keep his errors to a minimum and if he does that, I expect he will win the match. This will likely be a fun match to watch while it lasts, but Almagro should come through 75, 63.

Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Federico Delbonis: This has been a huge week for Federico Delbonis as he qualified for the tournament in Hamburg and has then won three matches to reach the Quarter Final. That gives him every chance of entering the top 100 on Monday, but it could be a big ask for the Argentine player to knock off an in-form Fernando Verdasco.

Verdasco was a disappointment in the Final in Bastad last week as he fell to Carlos Berlocq, but overall his form has been good for around a month after a disappointing 2013. It is likely that he will enter the top 30 in the World Rankings with another win and he has a couple of decent wins under his belt from this week.

I have been impressed with the consistency Delbonis has shown in his last two wins over Dmitry Tursunov and Tommy Robredo, but he will be put under a lot of pressure by Verdasco in this one.

With the power and aggression that Verdasco has been able to play with in the last month, I think he will keep the pressure on Delbonis in this match. The double faults remain a problem for Verdasco, but he has served effectively for the most part and I think he finds a way to record a 64, 64 win.

Tommy Haas - 2.5 games v Fabio Fognini: Last week, I backed Tommy Haas to clear the spread against Fabio Fognini and couldn't have got it more wrong as the Italian won the match comfortably and then went on to win the tournament in Stuttgart.

Fognini is clearly very confident at the moment and he has followed the win, his first title on the Tour, with a couple of wins this week. The Italian has dropped just one set in his last seven matches so confidence will certainly be high.

However, the amount of tennis he has played recently will surely catch up with him at some point and I expect a much better effort from Tommy Haas in this one after the lacklustre way he was beaten last week.

I am expecting Haas to find more success against Fognini's second serve and I expect the German to make the necessary adjustments in this one to overturn the result from last week. I thought Haas would be able to create chances on the Fognini serve last week, while I expect him to serve much more effectively in this one.

A confident Fognini is a different animal and he is certainly having his best year on the Tour, but I think Haas can get a measure of revenge by winning this in straight sets.


Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 games v Matteo Viola: I think the appearance of Matteo Viola at the Quarter Final stage is a real surprise to me, but his run could come to an end on Friday.

The court in Bogota is playing incredibly quickly from the tennis I have seen and that should aid Vasek Pospisil who has a big serve and has been comfortable getting to the net to put away volleys.

With the speed in the court, it can be tough to break serve, but I think the Canadian's aggression will aid him massively and he will put a lot of pressure on Viola to pass him at the net, which is not easy against a player with the wingspan Pospisil possesses.

The Italian will be confident from a couple of wins this week, but I think Pospisil is the better hard court player and can book his place in the Semi Final after a 76, 63 win.

MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Tommy Haas - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-7, + 1.40 Units (30 Units Staked, + 4.67% Yield)

Tennis Picks July 19th

Sofia Arvidsson - 3 games v Arantxa Rus: Sofia Arvidsson was a surprise winner in the First Round over Roberta Vinci, but she will be looking to at least replicate the run that saw her reach the Semi Final here last season in what is her home tournament.

She faces the young Dutch player Arantxa Rus and should be full of confidence that she can beat her having won twice against her in 2012 already.

Rus did reach the Semi Final of a Challenger event on the clay courts last week so is clearly in some sort of form, but she was only 3-3 on the Main Tour in clay court matches before reaching the Fourth Round in the French Open.

I imagine this match will have a number of breaks of serves in it, but I do think Arvidsson is going to be the person that has more than Rus and wins this match likely 6-4, 6-3.

Marcel Granollers - 3.5 games v Lukasz Kubot: Marcel Granollers is the reigning Champion here in Gstaad and I think he will be too strong for Lukasz Kubot in this Second Round match.

Granollers reached the Semi Final last week in Umag, but he can be a little inconsistent and that is a slight concern for me as he is capable of losing a set when he loses focus.

On the other hand, Kubot has not really enjoyed a lot of success on clay courts and I think Granollers is the player that is more comfortable on the surface and that could be the difference between the players in the match.

The Spaniard has won the previous two meetings against Kubot, both coming on clay courts, and I think he will complete the hat-trick.

Jeremy Chardy - 4 games v Julian Reister: These two players meet for the second consecutive week in a row and I like Jeremy Chardy to record another win over Julian Reister following a 6-2, 6-4 win in Stuttgart last week.

Reister caused a huge surprise in the First Round when he beat seeded Fernando Verdasco in straight sets and there is every chance that the German will be in a let-down spot following that big win. Even though Verdasco is not the force of a couple of years ago, a win over the Spaniard on a clay court is still impressive, particularly in the ease in which it was delivered.

However, the let-down has to be a concern for Reister in this one, while he is also playing a player in decent nick of late. Chardy has already recorded more wins on the Main Tour this season than he did in the whole of last season and I think he has the serve in this match to make the difference between the players.

Chardy is likely to get a lot more cheap points behind his serve and he showed last week that he can get a good read on the Reister serve and that should put him in a good spot to get the cover in this one. I wouldn't be surprised to see Chardy win this one 6-4, 6-3.

MY PICKS: Sofia Arvidsson - 3 games @ 1.94 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Marcel Granollers - 3.5 games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Jeremy Chardy - 4 games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units) To be Completed 1-1 (Rain delay at time of writing)

Weekly Update: 3-4, - 1.93 Units (10 Units Staked)

Tennis Picks July 19th

I was hoping all the picks had been decided before I made any more for Tuesday, but unfortunately the rain arrived in Atlanta to curtail James Blake's momentum and it may just reinvigorate Ernests Gulbis in the match.

It was a much better start to the week than I had last week as I look to get back to picking winners- it has been a tough couple of weeks for me, but hopefully this week represents a turning point.

If the James Blake match is anything to go by, I might just be getting some luck back that seemingly deserted me recently. Blake was a set down and Gulbis was serving for the match and only 2 points from victory when Blake fought back for the break.

He then found himself 0-4 down in the tie break and I had all but accepted that this pick was going to falter, but Blake once again fought through adversity and won the set.

As I said, I felt the luck that had not been with me recently may just have returned when Blake saved 4 break points in the early part of set 3 before going on to get the break and the lead. Hopefully he can come out of the rain delay and finish the game off and book a match with John Isner in the next couple of days.


Now on to the July 19th Picks:

Marcel Granollers vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver: Marcel Granollers is one of these players that seems to play a lot better when you have picked against him, yet plays like a club player when you pick him to win, but I still feel there may be a spot of value on picking him to win this match.

Granollers has not really set the world alight this season, but his best stuff is usually played on the clay courts. He has had some solid wins over the likes of Nikolay Davydenko and Victor Troicki on clay this season, although both of those players have their own issues.

Daniel Gimeno-Traver has struggled on the main tour this season, winning just 5 of his 23 matches, and he is surprisingly been struggling on the clay, a surprise because the Spanish are generally pretty good on the red dirt.

Gimeno-Traver has lost to some really average players on clay this season, and his 2-2 head to head record with Granollers is a little misleading as he has lost his last 2 matches, both on clay, without winning a set.


Victor Crivoi vs Fabio Fognini: I dont really have a lot to say about this match except I am making the pick because I want to oppose Fabio Fognini has a short priced favourite.

Fognini was surprisingly beaten by Cedrik-Marcel Stebe last week in Stuttgart and the Italian has been a little bit hit and miss all season on the clay. He had a good run at the French Open, but has also lost to the likes of Federico Del Bonis and the aforementioned Stebe.

Victor Crivoi was forced to qualify here and then beat Guillermo Olaso in the 1st Round to reach this stage. That was his 1 and only win on the main tour this season, but Crivoi does play the majority of his tennis on clay courts.

He also has a 1-0 head to head record over Fognini- he beat the Italian on clay in Italy in 2009.

As a bigger priced underdog, Crivoi could be worth small stakes.


Double; Pablo Andujar vs Julien Benneteau and Gilles Simon vs Sergiy Stakhovsky: Both of these players I have picked have a couple of issues surrounding them, but they are playing opponents that have been struggling.

My doubts about Pablo Andujar come from the fact that he reached the Final in Stuttgart on Sunday and I am a little concerned that he may be short of energy for this week. However, he plays Julien Benneteau who is struggling on all surfaces in recent weeks and someone who lost to Andujar on the clay courts of Nice a few months ago.

Gilles Simon blew a big chance to go deep in the draw at Stuttgart last week when losing in 3 sets to Albert Montanes, but he should still have too much for Sergiy Stakhovsky. The Ukranian player has been struggling for form and has not really been able to put too many back to back wins together in recent weeks.

Simon has also won both previous meetings with Stakhovsky and I think he will do so again this time.


MY PICKS: James Blake @ 1.83 (2 Units) Still in running at time of writing with Blake leading 5-7, 7-6, 3-2 *15-0
Marcel Granollers @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Victor Crivoi @ 2.70 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Double; Pablo Andujar and Gilles Simon @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)




WEEKLY UPDATE: + 0.4 Units