Tennis Picks 2023 (July 23rd)

The poor start to the week was always going to be very difficult to overcome, but it perhaps should have been a stronger end to the latest set of tournaments than we have had.

Some of the losses have been in matches where the selections have dominated the Break Point count, but found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and those have been the Picks that have made it very tough to get back on track following the poor Tuesday opening to the week.

On Sunday we are going to have the Finals played at the tournaments that have been running this week and there are some decent matches set to take place.

A big clay court event is coming up in Hamburg next week, but there are also stops in Umag and Atlanta to come as the run towards the US Open begins in the United States.

Late finishes in the WTA events in Budapest and Palermo means those markets have not been created at the time of writing and any selections will be added to this thread on Sunday, at least a couple of hours before those Finals are scheduled to be played.

Pedro Cachin - 1.5 games v Albert Ramos: All of the veteran players on the Tour that have won titles like Albert Ramos have to be respected and even at this stage of their careers they can put in a surge in one week to take home another trophy.

Albert Ramos has won a title on the clay courts in 2019, 2021 and 2022 and the victory four years ago was right here in Gstaad... That will give him confident at the end of a strong week where Ramos has shown his battling qualities by winning a deciding set three times in four victories.

It does mean he has played a lot of tennis compared with Pedro Cachin who has won all of his matches in straight sets and spent considerably less time on the court compared with the Spaniard.

Add in the fact that Pedro Cachin looks to be an improving player on the Tour who has produced solid, if unspectacular clay court numbers all season. His serve has been an important weapon in the Gstaad conditions, while Albert Ramos has had to return well to make up for the fact that his own serve has been a touch vulnerable.

A first ATP Final is going to mean nerves for Pedro Cachin, but his tennis should be good enough to win this match against Albert Ramos. Outside of the Second Round win over Roberto Bautista Agut, Pedro Cachin has broken at least four times in all three other wins in Gstaad, while Cachin has only dropped serve four times all week.

The expectation is that Albert Ramos will test him with the way he has been returning this week, although the lefty is likely to feel the pressure from the returning that Pedro Cachin has also been able to produce.

Controlling nerves is never easy in a first Final at this level, but Pedro Cachin can earn the majority of the Break Points and that can help him win this and cover this mark.

Casper Ruud - 1.5 games v Andrey Rublev: The top two Seeds in Bastad have made it through to the Final on Sunday and this has become familiar for fans of Casper Ruud.

After Wimbledon, Ruud has taken advantage of his clay court quality to win a number of European events on the red dirt in the last couple of years and he is a narrow favourite in the Bastad Final. That may be down to his clay court expertise, but also the fact he had a much more straight-forward win in the Semi Final compared with Andrey Rublev who needed three sets to beat Francisco Cerundolo in a tough encounter.

It took considerably longer than Ruud's Semi Final win, and Andrey Rublev had to win the second Semi Final which means less time to prepare for the Final.

He did win the first four matches against Casper Ruud on the Tour, but three of those were when Andrey Rublev was Ranked considerably higher than the Norwegian. However, all three clay court matches between the pair were won in those four matches and Andrey Rublev will certainly have some confidence behind him knowing that is the case.

On the other hand, Casper Ruud will be feeling pretty good that he has won their last two Tour matches on the hard courts of the Tour Finals. He has also reached the French Open Final twice since losing his last clay court match to Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud has been serving very well in Bastad this week, which could be key to the outcome of this Final.

As well as Rublev has been serving, he has not been as effective on the return in this tournament compared with Casper Ruud and the anticipation is for a competitive Final to have the narrow inches landing in favour of the top Seed.

Casper Ruud has only gone 2-2 against top 20 Ranked opponents this season on the clay courts, while Andrey Rublev has a solid 5-1 record in that same situation.

Three sets in this Final would not be a surprise and the sets should be competitive, but Casper Ruud can find a bit more energy to win the big points at key times to just earn yet another summer title on the red dirt.

Kateryna Baindl - 1.5 games v Maria Timofeeva: Just a few words on the Budapest Final with the markets now completed and a selection made.

It has been a remarkable week for the 19 year old who has entered the draw as the World Number 246 and a Lucky Loser, but Maria Timofeeva has been winning behind tight margins. She spent well over three hours on court in her Semi Final and has played a lot of tennis already this week, while Timofeeva has faced seven more Break Points than she has created in her last two matches.

Playing the big points well is clearly a good sign, but Maria Timofeeva has not shown a strong tendency to do that before Budapest and it feels like an outlier rather than a general rule when it comes to her tennis.

It is expected that the younger player will have chances in this match as Kateryna Baindl hsa not been serving at a really high level in this tournament. The Ukrainian had to win two matches on Saturday after her Quarter Final had been rained out the day before, but Baindl has been returning well this week and that should see her earn the majority of Break Points.

Of course that doesn't mean she will take them, but the play is backing Baindl to come through in three sets and do enough to cover this mark.

MY PICKS: Pedro Cachin - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Kateryna Baindl - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 13-15, - 6.02 Units (56 Units Staked, - 10.75% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 22nd)

The day started off perfectly, but a poor run in Gstaad hurt the Tennis Picks in the Quarter Final Round on Friday and it looks like a week in which I am not going to recover from a miserable opening day.

Some of the manner of a few of the losses this week have been frustrating, but the majority of Break Points are being created by those players being backed and that is about all I can do.

With the Semi Final matches set for Saturday, you can see my Picks below.

MY PICKS: Casper Ruud - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Pedro Cachin - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Nadia Podoroska - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 11-14, - 7.36 Units (50 Units Staked, - 14.72% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 19th)

It felt like deja vu on Tuesday- I swear I lived the exact same day when it came to the Tennis Picks back in April when the Madrid Masters took place.

Once again I have fallen foul of a truly miserable day when seemingly anything that could conspire to go wrong would go wrong.

There is no doubt in my mind that Mikael Ymer's eighteen month suspension, which was announced before brother Elias entered the court in Bastad, had an affect on the performance of the other Ymer on the Tour.

However, he was not the better player and ultimately deserved to lose, whether he was unfocused or not.

The Picks that actually grate on me much more are the ones where everything points in one direction, but the exact opposite has happened.

Both Alexander Zverev and Tomas Martin Etcheverry were on the wrong end of the very fine margins as they failed to cover to my absolute irritation- let's face facts, if you're creating a lot more Break Points than your opponent, you are clearly doing something right on the court, but both of those players played those big points incredibly poorly.

Alexander Zverev had fifteen Break Points compared to his opponent's six in the match... But Zverev broke four times and lost serve three times.

In the first two sets Tomas Martin Etcheverry played, he had seven Break Points and gave up two... Yep, you've figured it out, Etcheverry broke once and his opponent managed to break twice!

So between those two players selected, they played thirty Break Points and won eight of those!! On the return of serve, Zverev and Etcheverry created twenty-two Break Points and won five of those key points.

That is quite something when you think about it.

After a really solid first half of the year, this is the second day outside of a Grand Slam that has given me a thumping, but it would be a lot more concerning if Picks were being dominated. Ultimately both of those matches could be played again and if the same number of Break Points were played, the likes of Zverev and Etcheverry would win say half of those and in all likelihood would have both had a serious case for the win and cover.

This is the main reason I have not lost faith in the way Picks are being identified, but it would be nice to have a strong end to this week after the debacle of Tuesday. It won't be easy if these margins continue to test the patience, but being patient is the key in a long season when you have to accept some ups and downs.

Over the last month it does feel like we have been on a considerable dip, but I would accept seeing my Picks dominate the Break Point count knowing that the numbers should even out.

Zizou Bergs - 1.5 games v Jurij Rodionov: Both of these players have come through the Qualifiers in Gstaad, although it does feel like Zizou Bergs has played the better players to reach the Second Round here.

In saying that, confidence can be built by dismissing players in the manner that Jurij Rodionov has done and he will need to serve well to win this match.

Over the course of the season and in recent years, you would have to give Bergs the edge in clay court performances compared with the Austrian. His serve has been slightly more effective, while Zizou Bergs has proved to be the superior return player on the two in 2023.

The three previous meetings between the players have all been on grass courts, but you might have felt those courts would have suited Jurij Rodionov more than Zizou Bergs. Last month they split two grass court matches so Bergs will be confident he has the tennis to win this match, especially on the red dirt where he has tended to do his best work over the last twelve months.

Conditions in Gstaad tend to make this a faster clay court, which will aid Rodionov, but Zizou Bergs can get the better of him to reach this ATP Quarter Final with the expectation that the Belgian can produce the stronger return numbers on the day.

Francisco Cerundolo - 4.5 games v Luca Van Assche: He won the title in Eastbourne in the week before Wimbledon began, but Francisco Cerundolo was not able to keep the grass court successes going as he was dumped out in the Second Round.

Over the last eighteen months, the Argentine has been one of the most improved players on the Tour and last summer he was able to win the title in Bastad before reaching the Semi Final at Hamburg.

Things didn't really go to plan for Francisco Cerundolo after that Semi Final run so he has very little to defend in terms of Ranking points over the next few months. First he has to try and defend the title he won here and you have to believe Cerundolo will be motivated to have a good run in the European clay court events being played.

A bye through to the Second Round means Francisco Cerundolo is playing his first match this week and he is taking on young Frenchman Luca Van Assche who has flashed potential as he grows onto the Tour. A First Round win means Van Assche should be ready to deal with the conditions in Bastad, although he has yet to have a really big defining win in his young career.

Only one top 50 Ranking win on any surface backs up that perception of Luca Van Assche, but he should have some successes in this one against an opponent who is not going to blow you away behind his serve. However, Van Assche will have difficulties in containing the Francisco Cerundolo return game and that is effectively expected to make the difference in this Second Round match.

Luca Van Assche did play well enough to take a set from Novak Djokovic on the clay courts in April, but he was worn down over three sets in that match and Cerundolo should be able to something similar in this encounter.

MY PICKS: Zizou Bergs - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Francisco Cerundolo - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Lorenzo Musetti - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Federico Coria - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Kaja Juvan - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Yulia Putintseva - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Sara Sorribes Tormo - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)

Qinwen Zheng - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Kevin Anderson @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

John Isner @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-5, - 8.40 Units (12 Units Staked, - 70% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (April 26th)

I didn't have the time to research the Tennis Picks for Thursday so there were no selections made to back up the win we had on Wednesday.

My mind was not ready to sit down and work things out after the Manchester derby on Wednesday evening and the slightly longer than expected journey back home due to roadworks being done on long stretches of the motorway. You don't want to hear my sob story here though, instead the focus is on the Tennis Picks from the Friday Quarter Final matches at the tournaments being played this week.


Guido Pella + 3.5 games v Dominic Thiem: There would have been a real hope for Dominic Thiem fans that their man was ready to get back to some of his best tennis after he won a big Masters title in Indian Wells. That came on the hard courts and the return to the clay courts would have been seen as a good time to put some strong runs together.

An early defeat in Monte Carlo was a real surprise, but Thiem has reached the Quarter Final in Barcelona without expending too much energy. Two good looking wins over Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and Jaume Munar will stand the Austrian in good stead, but his numbers are still some way down on where they have been on the clay courts in recent years.

Where he has been someone who holds somewhere in the low 80s in terms of percentage, Thiem is holding down at 71% on the clay courts in 2019. Even though Thiem has yet to drop a set in this tournament, his hold number has only improved to 77% and it is the return game that has been key to his wins.

His whole game is going to be tested by Guido Pella who is having a career season on the clay and is looking to maintain his consistency on the court. The Argentinian has reached a career best Ranking at the beginning of the week and is continuing to trend in a positive direction with a couple of strong wins on the clay of Barcelona.

Guido Pella dropped the first set this week, but he has won five sets in a row as he has produced three wins to reach the Quarter Final. His service numbers are slightly improved this week compared with the season, while Pella has also been returning well enough to believe he can challenge Dominic Thiem if the latter is not able to turn the switch and produce a much better level than he has for much of 2019.

These two played a tight match on the clay of Buenos Aires last season and it feels like Pella is coming into this Quarter Final in much stronger form. Coupled with Dominic Thiem's slight decline in form on the clay courts through 2019 compared with previous seasons and this could be a close match in which the games being given to the underdog look very appealing.


Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Anastasija Sevastova: An indoor court on any surface should be something that is very much a confidence booster for a player like Petra Kvitova. You may assume that the clay courts are not really the surface for someone who is as aggressive as Kvitova is on the court, but she has shown throughout her career that she can be very effective on the surface.

The serve certainly helps Kvitova as it can set up short balls on a surface where she would prefer to avoid being dragged into the long rallies that could see her break down as she continues chasing the lines. It was a very strong weapon for the Czech player last year and she began her tournament in Stuttgart with a comfortable win in the Second Round.

In recent years Kvitova has had something of a mixed time in Stuttgart with some early losses around a deep run at the event. She is favoured to see off Anastasija Sevastova who has had some really good results on the clay courts in recent years, but who has perhaps not matched up the kind of level that Kvitova has produced on the surface.

The Latvian has been the more consistent returner on the clay out of the two players in this match, but she has not managed the same kind of numbers Kvitova produced in 2018. It is also going to be a big challenge for Sevastova to deal with the Kvitova serve, although their previous matches have been close enough to think the underdog does have the chance to spring the upset.

However I am backing the favourite to win and cover considering the performances on the clay over the last twelve months. Petra Kvitova has been playing at a very high level over that time period and it is enough to believe she can win this match with a break more in each set of a straight sets match.


Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: This looks like a Quarter Final that is best suited to the clay courts with two players who are very comfortable on the surface looking to secure some vital World Ranking points. Pablo Cuevas is a veteran these days who is clinging onto his top 100 World Ranking as he has struggled for consistency, while Matteo Berrettini is approaching his career best World Ranking having hit his peak earlier in 2019.

Both players have made their way through to this Quarter Final in different ways. Where Berrettini has been pretty dominant in his two wins, Cuevas has had to dig deep and need a final set to come through his own matches and this has come just days after winning a title on the Challenger Tour.

Fatigue could be a potential issue for Cuevas who has performed well enough on the clay courts in 2019, but has struggled when it comes to the return of serve which has prevented him winning more matches. Those numbers have actually dipped on both serve and return in the tournament here in Budapest as Cuevas has held in 75% of his service games and broken in 25%.

Now Cuevas has to deal with Matteo Berrettini who has been a big time server on the clay courts in the last couple of years but who has struggled with his own return. So far in his three matches in 2019 the Italian has been actually much improved with his return, but the serve has suffered a little bit, although the two wins in Budapest have been impressive against Mikhail Kukushkin and Aljaz Bedene.

In Budapest Berrettini has been holding 85% of the service games played and has broken in 35% and those numbers are impressive enough to give him the edge in this Quarter Final. I do think all of the tennis that Cuevas has played in the last couple of weeks is going to make it difficult for him too and needing three sets to win his two matches this week and now playing for a third day in a row is a tough spot for the veteran to be in.

Matteo Berrettini won't have things all his own way, but he looks to be performing at a higher level than Pablo Cuevas in the conditions and I will back the younger man to come through with a win and a cover.

MY PICKS: Guido Pella + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-0, + 1.60 Units (2 Units Staked, + 80% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (April 27th)

Thursday was a solid recovery day for the Tennis Picks with both choices returning as winners to get this week back into a position where a strong end can record another positive week to add to the season totals.

While the Tennis Picks recovered, I am still on the road to full fitness after a cold knocked me out over the last couple of days. That does mean the Tennis Picks on Friday will also not have any analysis to go with them, but I have put the research together while lying in bed and trying to stay warm.

Another good showing on Friday will turn this week right around after a poor Wednesday and that is the plan from the Picks made.

MY PICKS: Aljaz Bedene - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
David Goffin - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-4, - 2.16 Units (14 Units Staked, - 15.43% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (April 25th)

There are four tournaments which are being played this week but I couldn't find any Tennis Picks from the first two days of the events in Barcelona, Budapest, Istanbul and Stuttgart.

That may be a surprise to read, but this season continues to move in a positive direction with another winning week put together in Monte Carlo last week. With that in mind I am sticking to the research and putting the numbers together like I have been over the last couple of months and so far it is working out as well as I could have hoped.

To be fair only a couple of matches came close to being picked and I won't lie here but instead admit that none of those would have been winners. I have to be positive that they didn't hit the threshold I am looking for which have produced good results, but hopefully it is just an indication that those were not good enough Picks and not highlighting a poor turn of results about to come out.


On Wednesday I do have five Tennis Picks which cover the ATP events in Barcelona and Budapest and the big WTA event in Stuttgart.

There are some big names out there this week with the majority of them getting underway on Wednesday having received byes or delayed First Round matches through the first couple of days.

They are going to be played across the day so let's hope for another strong week to add to those being experienced in the last couple of months as the clay court season goes on.


Aljaz Bedene - 3.5 games v Matteo Berrettini: Over the last couple of years Aljaz Bedene has reserved his best tennis for the clay courts and even the loss to Rafael Nadal last week in Monte Carlo won't have knocked too much confidence.

Bedene has to feel he can produce some really good weeks on the Tour during this part of the season as long as he can avoid being given an early test against Nadal who continues to look head and shoulders above his competition on this surface.

The field in Budapest is certainly one in which Bedene should feel comfortable and his numbers on the clay courts are very strong. On Wednesday he meets Italian Qualifier Matteo Berrettini who is making his biggest impact on the Tour at this level.

Bedene's record against players Ranked outside the top 100 on the clay courts has improved to 19-0 over the last fifteen months, and both the serving and returning numbers have been impressive.

He will be challenged by Berrettini who is very comfortable on the clay and built confidence and momentum with his run in Budapest. The serve can be an important weapon for Berrettini, but I think Bedene will challenge him on the return in ways the Italian will not have been used to.

His own return could have problems getting to grips with the Bedene serve and I think the higher Ranked player wins with a break more in each set of a straight sets win.


Karen Khachanov - 1.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: There are plenty of matches scheduled in Barcelona on Wednesday when the entire remaining Second Round is completed.

However only one takes my fancy and it has all the makings of a tough one between Karen Khachanov and Leonardo Mayer.

Both players are very well adapted to the clay courts and I think both will believe this is a winnable match for them on this surface. The serve is a huge weapon for both Khachanov and Mayer and I do think there will be plenty of holds of serve throughout the Second Round match.

There isn't a lot between these players and the layers are about right to have it close to a pick 'em contest, but I think the young Russian may be an improving player when it comes to the return of serve. That could be the key element to the outcome of this match with the expectation that Khachanov will earn the majority of the break point chances where those should come at a premium.

Mayer is a tough out on the clay courts and he has shown tremendous fight in his losses on the surface in 2018. However I think it will be Khachanov who makes the big plays when they matter the most and I will look for him to win in either two or three sets which will still give him every chance of covering this number.


Carla Suarez Navarro - 4.5 games v Veronika Kudermetova: This is a battle between a veteran of the WTA Tour and a youngster looking to make a name for herself, but I think that is going to be a big test for Veronika Kudermetova to do that.

For starters she has simply not been used to playing opponents who are in the top 100 of the World Rankings let alone one who is towards the upper echelon of the Tour.

Suarez Navarro is even better when it comes to playing on the clay courts and she has reached the Quarter Final in the usually tough field of Stuttgart four years in a row. The serve can be very vulnerable on any surface and especially on the clay courts which does reduce some of the enthusiasm in backing the Spaniard, but she has dominated those players she has played from outside the top 100 of the World Rankings on this surface.

The younger player will have nothing to lose and it may take Suarez Navarro a bit of time to work out her game which gives Kudermetova a chance to be competitive in the first set.

However I fully expect Suarez Navarro to get to grips with things and her consistency from the back of the court should be enough to help her hold a couple more times than Kudermetova and eventually cover this big number.


Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Angelique Kerber: It may be something of a surprise to note the relatively poor results Angelique Kerber has had on the clay courts over the last thirteen months. You would expect her defensive ability to be a strength on the slower surfaces, but her serve becomes even more vulnerable and I think she is in for a tough afternoon on Wednesday.

Kerber faces Petra Kvitova in a match which feels completely out of place as a First Round match in any tournament. That underlines the depth of the WTA Stuttgart field and Kerber also has to recover mentally from being destroyed by Kvitova when they met in Fed Cup action over the last weekend.

That match actually took place in the same place the Stuttgart tournament is played and Kvitova was a comfortable winner while Kerber was also beaten by Karoline Pliskova. Kvitova's win over Julia Goerges was another key result in the Fed Cup Semi Final as the Czech Republic moved past Germany away from home and I think Kvitova can double down on her win over Kerber.

Her serve is much more likely to bring up cheaper points than Kerber's, even on the clay courts, and I think that is a key difference between the players.

Kvitova's confidence can't be understated here either and I am looking for the Czech player to record another impressive win over Kerber.


Simona Halep - 5.5 games v Magdalena Rybarikova: I would expect Simona Halep to be amongst the favourites to win the French Open at the beginning of June, although she is going to have to cope with the pressure that comes with that expectation.

The clay courts are where Halep has tended to play her very best tennis, although still effective on all surfaces, and I would expect her to be too good for Magdalena Rybarikova who has not had a lot of competitive clay court tennis in recent years.

Injury have played a part in that, but I also think Rybarikova's game is suited to the quicker surfaces out on the Tour. She does have a solid looking win over Daria Kasatkina in the First Round which has to provide a real boost in confidence, but Rybarikova is going to be challenged by the exceptional returning Halep can produce on the clay courts.

This is a big spread when you think the indoor clay court in Stuttgart does have a different feel to the majority of clay court tennis the players will be used to playing. However I think Halep's returning numbers on the surface give her every chance to beat Rybarikova with a big enough margin to cover.

Rybarikova may feel she can cause some problems for Halep with her own return, but eventually I would think the Romanian can put a run of games together which helps her pull away for the win in this Second Round match.

MY PICKS: Aljaz Bedene - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Season 2018 Update: + 24.68 Units (488 Units Staked, + 5.08% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (April 25th)

You are never far away from a reminder of what really matters in life and missing out on two tennis picks from Barcelona is so insignificant to other events one may have to deal with.

Those picks could have easily gone my way on Monday but it was not to be with Jeremy Chardy having the majority of the better play but unable to break the Kyle Edmund serve, while Thiago Monteiro was up a set and a break before falling apart in the second set against Daniel Evans.

For a brief moment it still looked like Monteiro could potentially cover as he moved 4-0 up in the third, but it was not to be and all credit to Evans for fighting back from that deficit to win the match, his first Tour win on a clay court.

On Tuesday the majority of the other tournaments being played this week get going including in Stuttgart where the big story is the return of Maria Sharapova this week. Players and fans have been split about the Sharapova return and I am interested to see the reaction she gets on Wednesday, although her showing a little bit of contrition rather than playing a 'victim' would mean she is received with more sympathy by the majority of people.

That's for another day now and this thread will focus on the Tuesday tennis picks from the three tournaments I am focusing on today. I didn't really like anything from Istanbul and the WTA matches there, but I have picks from the other three events in Stuttgart, Barcelona and Budapest.


Barbora Strycova - 3.5 games v Jennifer Brady: This tournament in Stuttgart is one of the few on the Tour that is an indoor clay court event with the majority of the events at this time of the spring being played outdoors. The indoor element does change the feel of the court but you would still expect Barbora Strycova to get the better of Lucky Loser Jennifer Brady.

That has nothing to do with the fact that Brady has already been beaten here this week because she played well in the Qualifiers before finding Jelena Ostapenko a little too good. It has more to do with the fact that Brady has not played a lot of clay court tennis at this level and is going up against someone who is very comfortable on the surface.

In saying that, Strycova has not played here in Stuttgart since 2015 when she was beaten very easily by Garbine Muguruza and this is her first foray onto the clay courts in 2017. That will take an adjustment period and perhaps Brady has a chance to cause an upset with familiarity with the conditions in Stuttgart having played those three Qualifiers.

Last season was the first time since 2012 that Strycova was able to win her first match back on the clay courts coming out of the hard court swing. The Czech player performed well in Biel last time she was on the court a couple of weeks ago, but she will have to quickly get used to playing on the clay.

Her serve can be a weakness which is exposed on this surface, but big hitting Brady does not have the same level of movement and I would expect Strycova to work her way into a positive position in rallies. There will be breaks of serve, but I expect Strycova to come through with a 7-5, 6-4 win in the First Round.


Agnieszka Radwanska - 3.5 games v Ekaterina Makarova: After being described as a 'journeyman' by Maria Sharapova's agent earlier this week, you have to think Agnieszka Radwanska is more motivated than usual to try and set up a potential Second Round match with the Russian who is back from her drug ban this week.

It will be interesting to hear Radwanska's take on Sharapova's agent's statement, but she has to focus on matters on the court to get her 2017 season going. It has been a really difficult first four months of the season for Radwanska who looks like she is going to miss reaching at least 50 wins for only the second time in six seasons.

Radwanska is just 4-5 in her last nine matches and has not won back to back matches in a tournament since January when reaching the Final in Sydney. All of her losses have come when she has been a considerable favourite to win which has to be really alarming for her fans, and she hasn't had much success in Stuttgart in her career nor on the clay courts in general over the last two seasons.

While it has been a tough season for Radwanska, Ekaterina Makarova has had a difficult time too. Her game doesn't really feel like it should work effectively on the clay courts and for the most part it hasn't, while Makarova has lost six of her eight matches against Radwanska in the past.

It is hard to trust Radwanska when you know how poorly she has played in 2017, but that motivation to potentially play Sharapova could inspire her. The match up with Makarova is one that she has enjoyed and I like Radwanska to work her way to a 6-4, 6-4 win after recovering a few breaks of serve over the course of a couple of hours.


Dominic Thiem - 3.5 games v Kyle Edmund: On Monday I opposed Kyle Edmund and I was a little unfortunate not to be rewarded in backing underdog Jeremy Chardy to win that match. Over the course of two sets, Edmund won a total of just 5 more points than Chardy, but somehow that equated to 5 games and the British player will need to ride his luck to that extent to beat Dominic Thiem.

This is a rare situation for Thiem in that he should be well rested having had short weeks in Miami and Monte Carlo and that might see him produce a big week in Barcelona. The clay courts are the favoured surface for Thiem who will go into the French Open as something of a dark horse to win the title if he can build up some form in the coming month.

The clay courts give Thiem a little more time to get his big swing coming through the court and it certainly makes him feel comfortable. He can be a little loose behind serve at times, which can be a problem for him, but I do think he will be too good for Edmund in the Second Round in Barcelona.

Edmund is a decent player on the clay courts, but I am not sure Thiem should be favoured by three games less than Rafael Nadal was when he faced Edmund last week in Monte Carlo. I am not suggesting Thiem is better than Nadal on the clay courts, but he can certainly challenge the Spaniard these days and I think he will show the level of difference he should have over Edmund at this moment of their career.

As long as Thiem is more clinical than Chardy when the chances come his way, I think the Austrian comes through Edmund with a 6-4, 6-3 win.


Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: There was an important lesson learned by Alexander Zverev last week in Monte Carlo as he was blown away by Rafael Nadal, but there is no doubt the German is going to enjoy a bright future in the sport. I don't think the Nadal loss will be a damaging one long-term and I am looking for Zverev to beat the veteran Nicolas Almagro in this First Round match.

I am also expecting Zverev to win with a level of comfort on the scoreboard despite the clay courts being the best surface for Almagro. However I think the latter is still finding his feet back on the Tour after being absent for a couple of months following the Australian Open and he was dismissed by David Goffin fairly easily despite a strong start.

Zverev himself is comfortable on the clay courts and I don't believe he will make as slow as start as Goffin did last week against Nicolas Almagro. The youngster has a decent serve and some heavy shots from the ground which will give Almagro something to think about, while I also think the Spaniard is lacking a bit of consistency with his play at the moment.

I do anticipate Almagro having his moments at times in this one too, but I think that lack of consistency could cost him at key moments.

The home support will help Almagro, but I think Zverev will break down his game and just have a little bit more all around which sees him move into the Second Round behind a 6-3, 6-4 win.


Pablo Carreno Busta - 4.5 games v Andreas Seppi: These two players met on the clay courts in July 2016 and it was Pablo Carreno Busta who won the match in two sets as a narrow favourite. He was pretty dominant in key statistical areas on that day and it says something about his improvement in that time that he is a much bigger favourite when they meet in Barcelona in April 2017.

I also think that says something about where Andreas Seppi is at this moment in his own career as the veteran Italian looks to be on the slide. His performances on the clay courts have become more inconsistent too and even his First Round win against Mikael Ymer is going to be needed to be improved upon if Seppi can challenge Carreno Busta.

I do think Carreno Busta showed enough in Monte Carlo to believe he is going to have a big week in Barcelona and the narrow loss to Novak Djokovic shows this Spaniard is well worth his top 20 World Ranking.

He is serving well enough and feeling confident with his groundstrokes and I think that becomes tough for Seppi to deal with. The Italian can be decent in the rallies, but I think Carreno Busta will get some real joy from attacking his serve, particularly the second delivery and that can see Carreno Busta win this one with relative comfort on the day.

You have to accept that Carreno Busta is likely to be broken in this match too, but I think he can hold onto enough serves and create plenty of break points of his own. That can help him come through with a 7-5, 6-3 win to move past the veteran into the Third Round here in Barcelona.


Borna Coric - 2.5 games v Jiri Vesely: Any time a youngster makes their breakthrough on the Tour, you have to imagine that it is something of an eye-opener for them and it can be tough to find the consistency that people outside the camp would want. There is still plenty to like about players like Borna Coric who are finding their feet amongst the best players in the world while still growing into their bodies.

His title win in Marrakech two weeks ago could be the turning point on the season for Coric as he has been struggling for form and he will feel he can get his run off to a good start in Bucharest on Tuesday. Facing Jiri Vesely is far from a straight-forward match for anyone on the clay courts, but Coric has beaten him three times on the Tour and twice on the clay courts including in Marrakech just a few days ago.

That is the second time in a row that he has beaten Vesely in Morocco, but this season Coric's win was better from a statistical point of view. It was a tight match again, but Coric had the majority of break points and he won a higher percentage of return points and he can frank that win by being the stronger player at critical points in this one.

It will take a few points here and there to make all of the difference but I do think Coric comes onto the court with more overall belief in what he wants to do than Vesely. Out of the two players I think it is more likely that Vesely will make a couple more big mistakes at big moments and that can prove to be enough for Coric to come through a tough encounter.

I will be looking for Coric to frank his win in Marrakech by recording another one against Vesely by a very similar margin here in Budapest. Covering the spread won't be easy but Coric can do that with a 7-6, 6-4 win and I will back the Croatian in this First Round match.

MY PICKS: Barbora Strycova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)