Davis Cup Tennis Picks 2018 (April 8th)

The Tennis Picks have been in fine form this week with all eight picks made over the last seven days coming back as winners.

Friday was the key with five Picks from the Davis Cup ties and the Quarter Final matches at the WTA Charleston event all returning as winners and I am looking for a strong Sunday to wrap up this week.

The Davis Cup Quarter Final ties are completed on Sunday and it has been a busy day for me which means I will simply put my picks down below. Hopefully it can be a strong end to the week to put some good looking numbers down to add to the season totals.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-0, + 14.46 Units (16 Units Staked, + 90.38% Yield)

Davis Cup Tennis Picks 2018 (April 6th)

The Davis Cup Quarter Final ties will make headlines of their own, but most fans will be keeping a close eye on Rafael Nadal who makes his return since pulling out of the Australian Open Quarter Final match against Marin Cilic.

Nadal is playing the second rubber of the Spanish tie against Germany in Valencia, but his team have made it clear that the current World Number 1 is not at full health as he looks to defend plenty of points over the next couple of months in the lead up and during the French Open.


The four Davis Cup ties have provided some options for the Tennis Picks which have made a good start to the week from the WTA Charleston event. Any Picks from the United States vs Belgium tie and from the two WTA events will be added to this thread on Friday, but the Picks below are from the Spain vs Germany and Italy vs France Quarter Final ties which begin early on Friday morning.


Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v David Ferrer: The big question for Alexander Zverev is how he has managed to handle himself emotionally having lost the Miami Masters Final to John Isner a few days ago. He hasn't got a lot of time to prepare for the move from the hard courts onto the clay courts, while Zverev will be playing against another crowd supporting his opponent as he looks to give Germany a strong start in the Davis Cup tie against Spain.

A few years ago the prospect of facing David Ferrer would have been a scary one for any player, especially on the clay courts where the movement and defensive skills Ferrer possesses made him a tough opponent to beat.

However Zverev has already beaten Ferrer twice on the hard courts in 2018 to give himself a mental boost for this match, while I also have to say that the Spanish veteran is simply not as strong as he once was.

Ferrer's numbers against top 50 opponents on the clay courts over the last couple of years have deteriorated badly from his peak and I think that is an issue when facing Zverev. You can't ignore how well Zverev is able to play on the clay courts as he showed when winning the Rome Masters last year and his stronger service numbers and solid return numbers give him the edge in this first rubber.

I do think Ferrer will have his moments and he could even take a set, but I would expect Zverev to settle into the match and begin to take control of proceedings. He can produce some big time tennis on this surface and I would expect the stronger serving and very effective returning can help him get past Ferrer and cover the number of games being asked of him.

Coming off the hard courts onto the clay courts shouldn't be a big problem for Zverev, and he has had a few days to get himself physically ready for this match. I am looking for him to just be a little too good for Ferrer and give Germany the perfect start to this Quarter Final tie.


Lucas Pouille - 5.5 games v Andreas Seppi: On first glance I have to say this does look a big number of games for Lucas Pouille to cover, but the clay courts have been a surface on which he has been able to produce better returning numbers than on other surfaces.

He had a decent time on the clay in 2017 and Pouille certainly has some decent numbers on the surface which makes him someone to respect. The serve has continued to be a strong weapon for the Frenchman, but he has found his feet when it comes to the return on this surface and I think that is key against Andreas Seppi who has seen his own numbers declining on the clay over the last couple of years.

One of the bigger issues for Seppi is when he has come up against players Ranked in the top 50 when he really has seen a sharp downward trend on both his serving and returning numbers.

The home crowd can at least get behind Seppi and give him a boost in this one, but I do think the majority of the play will be on Pouille's side of the court and he will be the player creating the majority of break point chances.

Pouille can be a hard player to back because he does tend to struggle to retrieve breaks and that can lead to silly dropped sets, but I think he is the better player in this one. It will take Seppi turning back the clock to earn the upset and I will back Pouille to create the break points to win and cover the handicap.


Fabio Fognini - 6.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: I might need my head testing in picking two players who can be very, very erratic when the mood strikes them, but I am going to back Fabio Fognini to cover a big number against Jeremy Chardy in the second rubber of the tie between Italy and France.

With the home support behind him, Fognini will certainly feel he has the edge on the clay courts over Chardy even if the latter has been able to snap his run of losses to Fognini by beating him on the hard courts in North America over the last month.

Chardy has a very good serve when he is feeling at his best and it is a weapon that can give Fognini some problems even on the clay courts. The Frenchman has been able to maintain strong hold numbers on the clay courts but his bigger issue is trying to out-rally players on this surface for long enough to earn the break point chances.

The serve will be tested by Fognini who has a decent return and has produced some of his best tennis in Davis Cup. Not many would have forgotten the way he dismantled Andy Murray in Italy on the clay courts before and I do think this is the kind of situation in which Fognini does seem to bring his very best to the court.

Over the course of a best of five set match I do think Fognini will be able to break down the Chardy game and I think that will give him every chance of covering this number. Fognini has maintained some strong numbers on the clay courts over the last few years and I think he can continue the fine form he has shown on this surface already in 2018.

I think Chardy's returning issues could be a real factor in helping Fognini in covering the number in this second rubber and I will back the Italian to do that.


Madison Keys - 3.5 games v Bernarda Pera: The WTA Charleston event has reached the Quarter Final stage which means all of the players in this tournament have shown decent enough form.

It may be a surprising run for Madison Keys who has not produced her best tennis on the clay courts in the last couple of years, although she has played a Charleston Final before in her career.

Keys is very much a confidence player who has to see the serve working to the usual standards to make sure the rest of her game is up to scratch. That has been the case so far this week and I do think she will be able to put Bernarda Pera under pressure as a player who is still getting accustomed to this level of tennis.

Pera has shown she has plenty of quality in her own tennis and playing left-handed can be a problem for opponents to solve. She has some decent wins this week too which will have given her confidence, but I have to believe Keys is familiar with what Pera wants to do on the court and I expect the bigger hitting from the higher Ranked American to prove to be a difference maker on the day.

As long as Keys maintains her focus behind serve, I expect her to come through this match and cover these games by earning a break more in each set of a straight sets win.


Kiki Bertens - 2.5 games v Alize Cornet: Alize Cornet won her grudge match against Caroline Garcia on Thursday, but she is going to have maintain some heady standards if she is going to beat Kiki Bertens.

So far this week Cornet has been in fantastic form which has to be respected, but the numbers are far superior to the usual kind of levels the Frenchwoman finds on the clay courts.

Confidence is high so nothing suggests she will be dropping backwards, but Kiki Bertens presents a very difficult challenge for any opponent on the clay courts.

Bertens might not be playing at the same level that Cornet has produced this week, but her numbers are much more in line with those she has produced on the clay courts in the last two seasons. It does suggest Bertens can maintain these levels for longer than Cornet and I do think her serve is a big weapon for her in this match.

That serve can set up a few cheaper points for Bertens and I think she will be able to put Cornet under pressure in the match when it comes to protecting her own serve. The head to head may lean towards Cornet, but I think Bertens is one of the better clay court players out there and I am expecting her to have some strong runs over the next couple of months on this surface.

The superiority on the clay courts should show up in this match and I will back Bertens to come through and cover the number in this Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-0, + 5.12 Units (6 Units Staked, + 85.33% Yield)

Davis Cup Tennis Picks 2018 (February 2nd)

There has only been a couple of tournaments scheduled this week and I have been keeping an eye on both the WTA Taipei City and WTA St Petersburg events being played.

However there hasn't really been any matches to have interested me enough to make picks since Monday and that is mainly down to the some of the uncertainty that comes in the week after a Grand Slam event.

To be honest I think the layers have been right on the money when it comes to their margins in the matches so far this week and when you think that then the obvious choice is to wait for better options.

Those may have been provided by the Davis Cup World Group ties that begin on Friday with a number of matches scheduled at the various host venues. With the Sunday Singles matches not set until Saturday night, I find those markets are a little tougher to make picks from as layers don't really get their prices out until very close to the time the matches are scheduled to begin so the majority of my Davis Cup picks tend to come from the first day of the three day ties.

Of course the two WTA events being played reach the business end of their events which may provide opportunities, but I will cross that bridge when I come to it. If there are no options, then I will wait until Monday and the beginning of three ATP events.


Alexander Zverev - 5.5 games v Alex De Minaur: One of the ties of the First Round of the Davis Cup is between Germany and Australia who are both led by one player who is considered to be amongst the best of the next generation of men's tennis.

Both Alexander Zverev and Nick Kyrgios are going to carry the hopes of their nation in the Singles Rubbers and you have to think the one who can win their two matches can set up their nation for the upset.

That could be a critical match on Sunday, but Zverev would do well to make sure he is not overlooking the threat that Alex De Minaur could pose in this opening Singles match.

It says plenty about how well De Minaur has played in the Australian summer leading into the Australian Open that he has been asked to open the tie for the home team. De Minaur is actually the fourth highest Ranked Australian in the team this week, but he had been in fine form in Brisbane and Sydney although the mental test will be how much he has forgotten the humbling handed out by Tomas Berdych in the First Round.

Zverev also had a disappointing end to his Australian Open, and he is just 1-4 in Davis Cup matches for Germany which has to be playing on the mind. The manner of the defeat to Hyeon Chung will have upset the young German hope, but I think he can bounce back here with the strong performances he has produced on the hard courts over the last twelve months.

If he is not at the top of his game, De Minaur will cause problems and the home support is going to inspire the Australian in this one. I do worry about Zverev in the pressurised spots of representing his nation and Grand Slam matches where he has yet to really make the impact his potential suggests he should, but I think it is a matter of time he turns that around.

The bigger game should come out of Zverev's racquet in this opening Davis Cup match and I will look for him to work through to a pretty comfortable win in three or four sets.


Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 8.5 games v Liam Broady: The second Kyle Edmund decided he was not able to risk the hip and play on the opening day of this Davis Cup tie for Great Britain meant this team were huge underdogs to beat Spain. In all honesty they were underdogs anyway playing away from home and on the clay courts and I think Britain will do well to make this a competitive tie.

First up is Liam Broady making his Davis Cup debut and who has a best ever World Ranking of 158. He comes in as the 165 and with limited clay court experience over the last few years which all adds up to a big challenge against someone as comfortable on the surface as Albert Ramos-Vinolas is.

Even the lefty play from Broady is not a huge factor as he is playing another southpaw and I am really not sure how competitive the British player can keep this.

The Ramos-Vinolas serve can be vulnerable which will likely mean a couple of the sets are closely fought, but I think the Spaniard is also going to be able to pull away in one set which can give him a chance to cover a huge amount of games. It also has to be said that Broady has been doing a lot more winning than Ramos-Vinolas to open 2018, but that is coming at a lower level and ultimately that will make a difference in this match too.

Over the last couple of years Ramos-Vinolas has really improved as a clay court player on the main Tour and I expect that experience to play a part here. He is more comfortable on this surface and I think the Spaniard wears down his opponent and produces what looks a straight-forward win on paper.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 8.5 games v Cameron Norrie: The second Rubber in this Davis Cup tie between Spain and Great Britain has a similar feeling as the first. The Spanish team send an experienced top 30 Ranked player against a British player who is not inside the top 100 of the World Rankings and who has played very little clay court tennis over the last few years.

The Spanish team are confident enough that they have left their top 10 Ranked Singles player Pablo Carreno Busta out of the Singles Rubbers. That may be a surprise but Roberto Bautista Agut and Albert Ramos-Vinolas are very capable on this surface and I would expect the former to win his match with the same relative comfort as the latter.

You have to accept that Bautista Agut's serve can sometimes be vulnerable which makes this a big number of games to cover, but the consistency should put Cameron Norrie under pressure. The Norrie lefty serve can be a big weapon for him, but any time the rally gets beyond four shots you would shift the edge to Bautista Agut significantly.

Ultimately Bautista Agut is going to get enough balls back in play to use his defensive skills to wear down Norrie and extract mistakes from his game. That is going to be important to break down the Brit's game both mentally and physically and I am expecting a few breaks of serve to come out of it as the match begins to get away from Norrie.

The clay courts may not be the best surface for Bautista Agut, but he has reached the Fourth Round at the French Open in back to back years. That experience is enough to suggest he will begin to wear down Norrie once he has a feeling for the serve and how it is coming his way and I like Bautista Agut to also cover a big number in this Davis Cup tie.


Richard Gasquet - 5.5 games v Robin Haase: The French Davis Cup team have been able to call upon plenty of top players in recent years with a depth to their squad that has to be admired as most of the big names wish to compete for them. That led to a Davis Cup win in 2017 and France may still be the team to beat in 2018.

The second Rubber in this First Round tie against the Netherlands sees Richard Gasquet playing the Number 1 Dutch player Robin Haase. This is a match up Gasquet has enjoyed over the years with six wins from seven former matches against each other including the last four in a row.

Three wins came in 2017 and Gasquet played pretty well at the Australian Open to suggest he will be ready to compete at a high level in this one.

However he has to respect Robin Haase who had a couple of good runs in Chennai and Auckland before a disappointing First Round exit in Melbourne. The wins Haase had came against players that are not of the same level as Gasquet and I think this is a big mental test for him with the crowd very much against him and playing an opponent who has dominated him for the most part.

If he is serving well then he can give Gasquet something to think about, but you have to think the Frenchman will still find a way to get this done in three or four sets. Gasquet has something of a mixed record for France in Davis Cup Singles Rubbers, but I think this is a match in which he will feel comfortable and believe he can wear down Haase over a couple of hours.

Gasquet has tended to win his sets against Haase with some ease when he does get into a groove and I think that helps him cover this handicap.


Dusan Lajovic-John Isner over 41.5 games: The final Davis Cup pick from the opening day of the World Group ties comes from the Serbian-USA First Round second Singles Rubber.

Dusan Lajovic and John Isner both feel pretty happy on the clay courts, which may be a surprise when you think of the way Isner approaches his game. However Isner has admitted he prefers having a little more time on the return and groundstrokes and this is a player who has a win over Roger Federer in a Davis Cup tie on the surface while also leading Rafael Nadal 2-0 at the French Open.

Isner is not the player he was in those days, but he has the tools to put Lajovic under pressure in this one and is the right favourite. However home support and a decent clay court pedigree that Lajovic possesses should make this a close match and I would be surprised if we don't need to see four sets to decide the outcome of this one.

I can't rule out a decider either between two players who have met four times on the Tour and tended to be involved in very close matches. All but one of those four matches have needed a deciding set to find a winner, while the total number of games have been 23, 36, 35, 36 in those four matches and that is in best of three set situations with a tiebreaker in the final set.

I just can't see this match going down easily either way and with a couple of tiebreakers likely to play an important part, seeing the number of games surpassed looks the right play in this one.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 8.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 8.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic-John Isner Over 41.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Davis Cup Tennis Picks 2017 (February 3rd)

The Davis Cup First Round World Group ties begin on Friday and there are a couple of ties being played in Australian and Japan that will take place during the night. The Davis Cup covers the world so it is a long day of tennis when you think during the majority of the day in the United Kingdom we will have matches being played around Europe before we will then see the attention shifted to North and South America where Argentina, Canada and the United States will all be hosting ties.

Add to that we have reached the Quarter Finals of the tournaments being played on the WTA Tour and this is a busy Friday of tennis to match the intensity of the Grand Slam events in the middle of those events.

I will be adding picks from some of the later Davis Cup ties first thing in the morning as long as the markets are appealing as they potentially could be. I have some numbers I like but it will depend if those are matched as to whether I will go on and make those picks or not.


Sam Stosur + 2.5 games v Shuai Peng: The Sam Stosur serve is not working as well as it once did and that has a big affect on the rest of her game and may have been a contributing factor to her run of losses prior to this tournament. There have been some really disappointing losses since the middle of the 2016 season, but Stosur should have gained some confidence from her two wins in Taipei City including one in the Second Round which was decided in the final set.

That should toughen up the Australian, but she has to find more success behind the first serve whether that is by using serve-volley tactics or even going into the net after the first big forehand she is able to hit. Stosur should definitely have a chance to attack the Shuai Peng serve in this one, although Peng has been winning a lot more matches than Stosur which should give her the belief that it is her time to beat this opponent.

All six previous matches have been won by Stosur but they haven't played one another since 2013 so Peng should believe she is facing the Australian at the right time. However that head to head will also play a part in this one and may allow Stosur to keep the match competitive and perhaps force a final set decider again.

I actually thought Stosur would go into this match as the narrow favourite so being able to get some games behind me to back the higher Ranked player is hard to ignore. The next few months are important for Stosur's World Ranking as she has a lot of points to defend at the French Open, but I still think she is capable in a match like this one and I will take the games on offer.


Roberta Vinci v Kristina Mladenovic: I am a little disappointed with myself that I picked Venus Williams to beat Kristina Mladenovic in the Second Round because I wasn't sure of her health. It turned out that Venus didn't have much in the tank and the veteran can now have a well earned rest after the busy last couple of weeks, but Mladenovic moves through to the Quarter Final.

A lot of what I said about Mladenovic yesterday still applies and I think a more confident player would have been able to beat Venus Williams without dropping any games if I am being perfectly honest. The Frenchwoman allowed Williams back into the first set and she is going to have to be better when she plays Roberta Vinci.

The Italian is the defending Champion here and she has had a couple of solid wins behind her already. Vinci is capable of blunting the big power that Mladenovic plays with and she will use variation to perhaps extract more errors than her opponent will be able to get away with.

Their sole previous match came on the hard courts at the US Open in 2015 and it was Vinci who came through in a tight three set match as the slight underdog. Vinci is clearly happy in the conditions in St Petersburg and I think she can once again come up trumps against Mladenovic but this time as the favourite.


Svetlana Kuznetsova - 5.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: This is the first time Svetlana Kuznetsova is playing in St Petersburg and the home fans are going to be fully behind her to come through and win the tournament in her home nation. Her performance in the Second Round showed a player who is very comfortable on the clay courts and I think she will get the better of Yulia Putintseva in this Quarter Final.

As much as I should be giving credit to Putintseva, I also think it should be noted that she has been the beneficiary of a favourable draw which has helped her reach this Quarter Final. This has been the best run she has been able to manage so far in 2017 and all of her three defeats in January came in one-sided fashion which would not have seen her cover this number.

For the most part in 2016, Putintseva proved to be a very competitive player that could give the biggest names on the Tour some trouble. She has plenty of energy around the court and there is some power to her game which may give Kuznetsova something to think about in this one. However I do think Kuznetsova is going to have plenty of success in the return game against a vulnerable serve and I do think there will be a few chances to break serve through this match.

I think this match will have a similar feel to Kuznetsova's match with Daria Gavrilova in the Second Round with plenty of games being tight and decided by a couple of points here and there. There should be chances for both players to break serve, but I think Kuznetsova is going to be able to get out of a few more jams with her superior serve and that can help her overcome this challenge with a 7-5, 6-2 win.


Richard Gasquet - 7.5 games v Taro Daniel: France go into their Davis Cup tie as big favourites against a Japan team missing Kei Nishikori and Richard Gasquet can get them off to a very good start. He played well in Australia before running into Grigor Dimitrov and Gasquet has performed well for France when he has been called upon by France to play a Singles rubber for them.

He shouldn't underestimate Taro Daniel who reached the Final at a Challenger event in Hawaii last week, although Daniel was beaten very comfortably in two sets when trying to Qualify for the main draw at the Australian Open. That defeat came to the veteran Jurgen Melzer and I think Daniel will have some issues trying to match the level that Gasquet can bring with the majority of his successes coming at the Challenger level.

Daniel hasn't played that well on the hard courts and although he has performed well for Japan in the Davis Cup, the majority of recent matches have come against players who are not as good as Gasquet. He will have the support of the home crowd which should give Daniel plenty of motivation and confidence to bring his best tennis to the court, but at the end of the day it is a one on one contest and Gasquet will be used to playing in front of big crowds that may or may not be supporting his cause.

Winning matches on the indoor hard courts has been something Gasquet has been able to do in the last few seasons and I think he is going to be too good on the day. It is a big number being asked for Gasquet to cover, but I think he will break down Daniel with a 7-5, 6-3, 6-3 win.


Gilles Simon - 6.5 games v Yoshihito Nishioka: I will admit that it can be hard to trust Gilles Simon at times because he is someone who has to fight for every point he earns but is simply not quite up to the level of other players on the Tour who play that style when it comes to the movement around the court.

The bigger issue might be the defensive mindset that he uses unlike players like David Ferrer who are looking to be aggressive as well as make as many balls as possible and wear down opponents. Being less aggressive means Simon gives his opponent the chance to dictate points and that is what Yoshihito Nishioka has to try and do in this one.

The young Japanese player has produced some solid results on the Challenger Tour, but he is yet to really get it going on the main Tour. His defeat to Roberto Bautista Agut at the Australian Open shows there is some way to go for Nishioka and Gilles Simon has the same kind of game that will extract plenty of errors from his opponent.

Nishioka has to use the lefty serve to try and get himself into a strong position in the rallies, but I expect Simon will be able to get enough balls back in play in awkward positions to wear down his opponent. It should be noted that Simon does not have the greatest record in live Singles rubbers, but when he does win these matches he seems to do so with some comfort on the scoreboard and that may be the case here too.

It could put France in a commanding position on Day 1 of this First Round tie and I like Simon to find a way to win this one 7-5, 6-3, 6-4.


Guido Pella-Paolo Lorenzi over 39.5 total games: The Argentina vs Italy Davis Cup tie looks to be finely balanced as the defending Champions are missing key figures that helped them win the Davis Cup last season. Playing on clay against an Italian side who have their full complement of players and who are very much suited on the surface makes this the most difficult tie to call in the First Round in my opinion.

The opening Rubber is between Guido Pella and Paolo Lorenzi and the layers are having a difficult time separating them. The form of Lorenzi is certainly better going into the match and he does have a strong 4-1 record in Singles ties for Italy although the last two live Rubbers have gone to five sets.

There is every chance that Pella and Lorenzi will combine for a long match in this one too as both are comfortable on the clay and there should be plenty of break point opportunities both ways. Pella played an important role in the Davis Cup success last season even if he did not play in the Final and he too has a winning record playing for Argentina in Singles ties in this competition.

It does make for a fascinating opening Rubber and I think it will be one that surpasses the total number of games being asked.


Fabio Fognini - 5.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: I really don't know which way the first Rubber will go in this Davis Cup tie but I have a feeling it is more important to Argentina than Italy who should win the second Rubber. It has to be said that Fabio Fognini can be a hard player to trust on the Tour because you simply don't know which player is going to turn up on any given day, but he has been strong for the Italian Davis Cup team.

Fognini now has a 17-7 record in Singles Rubbers for Italy and that record becomes 13-2 on the clay courts which is his favoured surface. Playing away from home is something that should motivate Fognini who can thrive in these big match atmospheres and I think Carlos Berlocq may not be at 100% for the tie.

He is an awkward and irritating opponent at times who seems to get under the skin of the player he faces on the other side of the court and I do worry that Fognini will bite against the antics Berlocq can bring to the court. However Fognini has experienced playing Berlocq in Argentina in the Davis Cup before and won that match in four sets in 2014, although he was beaten 6-3, 6-0 when playing this opponent in Buenos Aires in 2015.

That might have been a healthier Berlocq though and I think that is a big factor in this match. As much as Fognini might not have been in great form during the opening month of the 2017 season, he does love the Davis Cup role he plays for Italy and I have him winning this match 7-5, 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 as he wears down Berlocq over two and a half hours.

MY PICKS: Sam Stosur + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Roberta Vinci @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 7.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Guido Pella-Paolo Lorenzi Over 39.5 Total Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-7, - 5.28 Units (24 Units Staked, - 22% Yield)

Davis Cup Tennis Picks 2015 (September 20th)

Once again it looks like the third rubber, the Doubles rubber, is going to be the key for Great Britain winning a tie and this time it will mean they are likely to be moving through to the Davis Cup Final.

Let's face it, Andy Murray has been a huge key to the success for Great Britain and he has been a dominant force in the Quarter Final and Semi Final. With Murray up first on Sunday, Great Britain will be expecting to confirm their place in the Final thanks to the sixth rubber that Murray has either won on his own or with his brother Jamie.

Great Britain haven't really been able to rely on the second Singles player over the last couple of ties, so Murray's form has been vital to their progress, and you can't take anything away from the team.


With the stand out player left, Great Britain will be a big favourite to go on and win the Davis Cup regardless of who they play from the other Semi Final. It looks finely balanced with Argentina winning the crucial Doubles rubber against Belgium to take a 2-1 lead, although the Belgium team are favoured to win the final two Singles rubbers.

Neither one of those teams have a Doubles team that Great Britain won't expect to beat and Argentina have arguably less of a chance than Belgium simply because their Number 1 player is no sure thing to win the rubber against the weaker British player as David Goffin would be for Belgium.

There is work to do for Belgium to get into that position and it looks like the fifth rubber might be the one that decides it all on Sunday.


The draws for the next ATP events have been made over the past day and both tournaments in Metz and St Petersburg have decent fields attached. We won't see too many of the top names out on the court until the Asian swing now as the season reaches the last couple of months and those months might not be as exciting as it was last season.

That is because the top eight look in a great position to secure their places in London for the World Tour Finals without the usual battle that we have seen in recent years. David Ferrer in eighth place has a fairly healthy lead over ninth placed Richard Gasquet, but hopefully there will be some intrigue about those places over the next six weeks before the Tour returns to London for the final week of the season.


Andy Murray - 7.5 games v Bernard Tomic: Great Britain tennis fans will be hoping that Andy Murray is celebrating putting his nation into the Davis Cup Final at the end of this match. No one would want the drama of a fifth rubber in which Australia would be a big favourite to win and I expect Andy Murray to come through and wear down Bernard Tomic.

The one rubber that Australia have won is thanks to Tomic, but he had to dig far deeper than he would have liked against Dan Evans on Friday and a similar level won't be good enough here. Of course Andy Murray has had to play the first two days, but I think he has made it clear he is on a limited schedule the rest of the season and I expect Murray is going to empty the tank for this one.

Murray was in fantastic form on Friday although there will be some tiredness this time. However, he is going to make Tomic work hard for everything he earns in this match and it is a match up that Murray should enjoy as his previous two wins over Tomic suggest.

For all the talent the Australian has, there is some doubt about his mental toughness when things start to go against him. Tomic has a decent pop on the first serve, but his second can be a weakness and he is too happy to get involved in the finesse side of the game which just works perfectly for Murray who is a better defensive player and I'd back his fitness over Tomic most of the time.

If Murray serves well he can begin to take Tomic's heart away from the fight and I think he will just wear him down physically and mentally. That should see Murray eventually drag Great Britain into the Davis Cup Final after a 63, 64, 62 win.


David Goffin - 5.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: Belgium are desperate for their talisman David Goffin to extend this tie and I think he has every chance of doing that against Leonardo Mayer.

The two Number 1 players in the tie meet in the fourth rubber and I think David Goffin has a bit more about his all around game for Mayer to cope with.

There is little doubt that Mayer has the heavier weight of shot as far as I am concerned, but the movement on the court and the physical fitness should favour Goffin. Unlike Goffin, this will be the third day in a row that Mayer will have had to take to the court and he had to dig deep to beat Steve Darcis in a closer match than expected.

Goffin also made hard work of his opponent on Friday, but not being involved i the Doubles rubber should give him a little bit more energy in the tank. I do think Mayer is capable of forcing a tie-breaker in the first couple of sets, but Goffin should ultimately be able to call on more reserves when things do get difficult that can see him through.

The home crowd will be hoping Goffin serves better than he did on Friday when he allowed Federico Delbonis to get comfortable in the match, and doing that should lead to a 76, 63, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Goffin - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Davis Cup Update: 1-2, - 2.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 39% Yield)

Davis Cup Tennis Picks 2015 (September 18th)

The US Open is almost a week old since Novak Djokovic came through a testing third set to record his third Grand Slam win of the season and the second time in consecutive Grand Slams he has found a way to get the better of Roger Federer.

It wasn't the most exciting of Grand Slam events, but the final few days certainly were interesting and the Men's Final was arguably the best match of the tournament full of drama and special tennis.


The ATP Tour has had a week off as preparations began for the Davis Cup ties to be played this weekend including the two Semi Finals between Great Britain and Australia and Belgium and Argentina.

Some big names are also playing in the World Group Play Offs and Group I ties with Stan Wawrinka, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer representing Switzerland and Spain. The Rio Olympics are less than a year away so players are getting in their Davis Cup time which will give them enough 'points' to represent their nations in Brazil next summer and so the Davis Cup might see a few more big names out there over the next six months, as will the Fed Cup on the WTA Tour.


Belgium and Great Britain go into their Davis Cup Semi Finals as the favourites to win, but it does look like the Doubles might be the most important rubber in both ties. Belgium are probably in the strongest position to beat Argentina because of Federico Delbonis' struggles on the hard courts, while Great Britain will be hoping Dan Evans can repeat his success over Bernard Tomic from two years ago at the US Open to give them the edge in that tie.


Dan Evans + 2.5 sets v Bernard Tomic: I'll be the first to admit that there is something about Dan Evans I don't like- maybe it is the work ethic that has been criticised in the past, or the fact that he seems like a prat on and off the court, but that's just the way it is in all walks of life.

While I enjoy seeing Evans take a bit of thumping just to get him grounded, I will say that this is a player that has been able to raise his game at times. Davis Cup action has arguably seen the best of Evans as he has won a couple of live fifth rubbers, but he has slipped to World Number 300 in the Rankings and it is a big ask for him to come in and beat Bernard Tomic.

However, Evans has been give the second Singles spot next to Andy Murray thanks to his decent run of results of late, albeit at Futures and Challenger level. He does strike me as a player that will thrive in the Davis Cup atmosphere and confidence won't be an issue, while Evans can also look back at the US Open in 2013 when he surprised Tomic by beating him after dropping the first set.

These elements can give Evans confidence in the second rubber of this tie which might be critical in the overall scheme of things assuming Andy Murray can win his two Singles matches.

In saying that, Tomic is the more likely winner and the layers seem to agree with that assessment. The Australian is back in the fold after being left out of the tie against Kazakhstan following criticism of the authorities back home after his Wimbledon exit.

It seems the Australians can only handle one 'brat' at a time with Nick Kyrgios sitting out, but Tomic is never too far from a meltdown and looks a short price to win this in straight sets. He has the bigger serve than Evans and is undoubtedly more talented, but it is all about coping with the 'hot streaks' Evans can get on and phasing out the crowd in the Arena and I am not sure Tomic is always able to do that effectively.

Tomic has handled that responsibility in Davis Cup though and has won 5 of his last 6 live rubbers away from home in straight sets. I just think if Andy Murray has won as expected, Tomic could feel the pressure of trying to get Australia on the board and that might lead to a mental lapse or two during the match.

If Evans can take advantage, he has every chance of winning at least a set in this one, although I am expecting it to be 1-1 between the nations at the end of the day.


David Goffin - 7.5 games v Federico Delbonis: Belgium will be expecting to win the first rubber of their Semi Final with Argentina when they send David Goffin out to the indoor hard court against Federico Delbonis.

This has been a huge season for Delbonis when it comes to the Davis Cup and representing Argentina- he won the vital fifth rubber to help his nation beat Brazil against Thomaz Bellucci and Delbonis then came from two sets down to beat Victor Troicki in the second rubber of the Quarter Final against Serbia.

Both are very impressive results but there are two factors that aren't in play here for Delbonis- the first is that both ties were played in Argentina as the fans helped him massively and the second is both ties were on his favoured clay court.

Neither is the case here and Delbonis is not as effective on the hard courts as shown by his straight sets loss to Ivo Karlovic at the US Open. Of course losing to Karlovic is no disgrace against that huge serve, but to be broken in each set by such a limited opponent shows how uncomfortable Delbonis can be on a hard court.

A player like David Goffin should be too good for Delbonis on this surface as long as he has gotten over whatever was ailing him at the US Open and forced his withdrawal mid-match there. Goffin knows the importance of the tie for Belgium so would have been hard pressed to miss out, but nothing came out at the US Open and it sounds like he is ready to go.

Goffin has been the main star for Belgium in recent Davis Cups as he has won his last 5 rubbers, but the nation have been fortunate to play Switzerland and Canada who were missing their two best players each time. He will love playing in front of the home fans and can wear down Delbonis once he begins to get a read of the lefty serve, while Goffin should be physically capable of going longer than the Argentinian in this one.

After a tight first set, I look for Goffin to take control in a 75, 63, 63 kind of match.


Leonardo Mayer - 4.5 games v Steve Darcis: Steve Darcis has won three of his four Davis Cup rubbers this season and could be in a position to put Belgium 2-0 up in the tie if everything goes to plan as expected in the first rubber.

Darcis and Leonardo Mayer meet in the second rubber and both might exchange some words of sympathy with one another after both were destroyed by Roger Federer in consecutive Rounds at the US Open. Darcis won four games against Federer in the Second Round after Mayer won five games in the First Round, but both will have had to put that to the back of their mind going into this rubber.

In recent years Argentina have been able to rely on some top players to represent them in Davis Cup, but Mayer is the Number 1 player for them these days. He has responded by winning his last five Davis Cup rubbers since 2014 and that has been key to sparking Argentina to reach this Semi Final.

Both Mayer and Darcis probably hoped this match would be on the clay courts where their best Davis Cup results have been achieved, but both are competent on the hard courts. I do think Mayer is the better hard court player of the two as he has the bigger serve and the harder groundstrokes, but Darcis is an awkward player that can get to the net to pressurise opponents.

It will be a close match with some twists and turns, but I think Mayer will eventually be able to take control and come through this one 67, 64, 63, 64.

MY PICKS: Dan Evans + 2.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Goffin - 7.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Final: 37-39, - 8.93 Units (151 Units Staked, - 5.91% Yield)
US Open Outright: 2-4, - 6.25 Units (15 Units Staked, - 41.67% Yield)

Season 2015: - 13.25 Units (1544 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)

Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

Davis Cup Tennis Picks 2015 (July 19th)

While Argentina and Belgium have booked their place in the Davis Cup Semi Final, the ties between Australia and Kazakhstan and Great Britain and France are going into the last day with their places in the Semi Final on the line.

Great Britain's Doubles win means they are now strong favourites to reach a surprising Semi Final, the first in the Davis Cup since 1981, and they will be hosting that Semi Final in September.

Andy Murray will be expected to beat Gilles Simon or Richard Gasquet on grass, while Great Britain will know who they are going to be playing with the Australia-Kazakhstan tie to be completed in the early hours of Sunday morning.

A Doubles win for Australia keeps them alive in the tie, and you have to make Australia the favourites to win the last couple of rubbers to move into what would be an awesome atmosphere against Great Britain. Both Nick Kyrgios and Thanasi Kokkinakis are going to have to be a lot better than they were on Friday if they are going to help Australia into the Semi Finals and I would be surprised if the captain decides to draft in Sam Groth or Lleyton Hewitt instead of either player.

Kazakhstan might feel their best chance is with Mikhail Kukushkin after an impressive win over Kokkinakis, but they have shown there is a depth of players who raise their game when in Davis Cup duty. It could be a very fun day in Darwin in the final two matches scheduled on Sunday.

Sunday is also going to see the Finals in Bastad, Bucharest and Newport all played, while the draws for next week events will all be ready as well as qualifying getting a little closer to being completed.


Nick Kyrgios-Mikhail Kukushkin Over 37.5 Total Games: The fourth rubber of the Australia-Kazakhstan tie sees the number one players of both nation competing as the home team looks to stay alive in this Quarter Final tie.

They will need Nick Kyrgios to play the big points much better than he did in a stunning loss in the second rubber against Aleksandr Nedovyesov. That match ended up being a four set loss for Kyrgios who served well for the most part, but couldn't really get into any return games and was beaten in four very close sets.

It won't get easier against Mikhail Kukushkin who was in very good form in his straight sets win over Thanasi Kokkinakis as he kept his younger opponent under pressure throughout that match. It wasn't just the decent serving day that Kukushkin produced, but it was his return that was particularly effective and helped him bring up 16 break points through the match.

I would be surprised if Kyrgios is as generous as Kokkinakis was in that match, but I also think he might be put under some scoreboard pressure with the way Kukushkin has been playing.

I have to say I also didn't respect how much Kukushkin has raised his game when representing Kazakhstan and I think this is a player that will feel he has to get this done for his nation to lead them into the Semi Finals. After pushing Andy Murray all the way at Wimbledon and beating Kokkinakis here, I would be surprised if Kukushkin is blown away in this match.

He will have to serve well to keep the pressure on Kyrgios, but this looks a match that is going to go at least four sets with the possibility of at least two tie-breakers pretty high. Backing this match to go over the total games looks a decent price and I am expecting another tight match for Nick Kyrgios but perhaps one he can win the big points and keep Australia alive for the final rubber of the tie.


Thanasi Kokkinakis-Aleksandr Nedovyesov Over 39.5 Total Games: Even if Australia are to tie up this Quarter Final in rubber four, I am still expecting the fifth rubber to be tightly fought. That is especially the case if both Thanasi Kokkinakis and Aleksandr Nedovyesov play in a similar manner to what they produced on Friday as they could have the deciding rubber on their racquets today.

I was severely disappointed by Kokkinakis in his straight sets loss, while I am still not convinced he is fully satisfied with playing on the grass. Instead of aiding his serve, Kokkinakis struggled to really protect that aspect of his game and was under constant pressure from Mikhail Kukushkin, but I think there is more to come from the youngster.

On the other hand, Alexsandr Nedovyesov produced arguably his best win of his career by beating Nick Kyrgios in four sets on a grass court. However, he is outside the top 100 in the World Rankings and it is hard to imagine Nedovyesov playing the big points as effectively as he did on Friday.

He will need to serve as well as he did in the second rubber if Kazakhstan are going to get through the tie and this another match that looks to go at least four sets with each set being tightly contested. I wouldn't be surprised if we need a couple of tie-breakers in this one too and I don't think any of the players go away quietly which should make this another rubber that can go over the total games being offered.


Andy Murray - 6.5 games v Gilles Simon: Great Britain have to win one of the two remaining rubbers in this Quarter Final tie to move into the Davis Cup Semi Finals for the first time since 1981. I don't think it is unfair to anyone to say that Great Britain know it is up to Andy Murray to win another rubber if they are going to win this tie as he is set to take on Gilles Simon in the fourth rubber of the tie.

It is a match to keep an eye on because there are some suggestions that Arnaud Clement is going to pick Richard Gasquet ahead of Gilles Simon, especially as Gasquet has given Andy Murray more problems in matches at Grand Slams.

While Simon did beat Murray in Rotterdam earlier this season for the loss of six gmes and he has also won a set in the two previous matches prior to Rotterdam, it has to be pointed out that Murray has won the two previous Grand Slam matches without dropping a set.

The match up is not a great one for Simon on the grass either as he doesn't have the same penetration on this surface as Murray, although he can make life difficult for a while. Both players had good Wimbledon tournaments until running into Roger Federer, but Andy Murray has the much deeper pedigree on this surface.

I'd imagine Simon keeps it competitive in perhaps two of the sets, but I think the serve can be vulnerable and Andy Murray is capable of earning a couple of breaks in a single set. I'd pick Murray to work his way through some difficult moments to win this match 75, 64, 62 which would give Great Britain the win.

Of course this match is dependent on France keeping Simon in ahead of Richard Gasquet, but I will make an edit here if there are changes in the hour leading up to this tie and if I have a new pick in place.

MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios-Mikhail Kukushkin Over 37.5 Total Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Thanasi Kokkinakis-Alexsandr Nedovyesov Over 39.5 Total Games @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 11-12, - 3.92 Units (46 Units Staked, - 8.52% Yield)

Davis Cup Tennis Picks (July 17th)

The Davis Cup Quarter Finals are beginning this Friday and we also have the business end of the tournaments in Bastad, Bucharest and Newport that will be concluded by Sunday.

I have backed Serbia and Australia in the Outright Markets for the Davis Cup earlier this year, but I think the former are looking very vulnerable as they head to Argentina without Novak Djokovic. Victor Troicki has been playing well, but I am not convinced he is as effective on the clay courts and now Serbia will be facing an Argentina team very comfortable on the surface and with the home crowd behind them.

I do think Australia will be alright against Kazakhstan, while Belgium are strong favourites to beat a Canada team without Milos Raonic or Vasek Pospisil.

The remaining tie is perhaps the most evenly matched on paper as Great Britain take on France at Queens Club with Andy Murray in the line up and expected to win two rubbers. The key for Great Britain is either hoping James Ward can produce something special as he has in recent Davis Cup ties, but the bigger opportunity might come in the Doubles where France are missing specialist Julien Benneteau.

However, both Nicolas Mahut and Richard Gasquet have played well as Doubles players in the past too and I do think France are the worthy narrow favourites in this tie.


With the tournaments spread over the day, some of the markets are not up when I am writing this post so any additional picks will be put up during the day if I do find any picks to go with.


Thanasi Kokkinakis - 3.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: Playing on the grass courts should give the young Australian players a chance to build a good lead on the opening day of this Davis Cup Quarter Final and I think Thanasi Kokkinankis can get them off to a good start.

Don't get me wrong, I still think Kokkinakis has to find his feet on this surface having really struggled with his return game in early defeats at Queens Club and Wimbledon. The former loss to Gilles Simon was more forgivable as Kokkinakis had to make a trip back to Australia prior to that to see an ill family member, but the defeat to Leonardo Mayer at Wimbledon was perhaps a disappointment.

He did show his character in winning his first live Davis Cup tie earlier this year from two sets down against Lukas Rosol away from home and I expect Kokkinakis to be inspired in Darwin in front of a full support.

Kokkinakis has to be aware of how well Mikhail Kukushkin has played for Kazakhstan in Davis Cup action, although grass is not his favoured surface. Kukushkin is 15-9 for Kazakhstan in Davis Cup matches, although he is just 3-2 outdoors and more worrying has to be the fact he has lost his last 5 live Davis Cup rubbers on the road.

I expect Kukushkin does cause some problems because he has a decent serve and is a talented player that caused Andy Murray some considerable problems at Wimbledon. His experience of playing away Davis Cup rubbers will help him, but I just think Kokkinakis can put some scoreboard pressure on him with his own service games.

The layers are right in thinking this might be closer than some might think, but I think the long journey to Australia, playing on his weakest surface and Kokkinakis winning a big Davis Cup rubber already this season goes against Kukushkin. It might need four sets, but I like the Australian's to win this one and Kokkinakis to cover this number.


James Ward-Gilles Simon Over 3.5 Sets: Over the last couple of years, James Ward has done his best to raise his level when it comes to Davis Cup rubbers and he is 3-3 in live rubbers in that time. The two defeats in Italy on the clay against Fabio Fognini are forgivable losses for Ward, but he has dug in deep to beat the likes of John Isner, Sam Querrey and Dmitry Tursunov in that time.

Those wins have encouraged Andy Murray to play for Great Britain despite some of the awkward timing of the Davis Cup which has kept many of the top ten players in the World Rankings from taking part. However, Murray recognises that Great Britain have some sort of chance with Ward producing the goods and the entire team will be hoping the Londoner can use previous success at Queens Club to help Great Britain take the lead in this Quarter Final with France.

James Ward reached a Semi Final at Queens in the past and only recently was a Third Round player at Wimbledon which has helped him crack the top 100 in the World Rankings for the first time in his career. He is going to need to be at his best against Gilles Simon who has had a very productive grass court season and was a Quarter Finalist in SW19 earlier this month.

However, I think Ward has a real chance of coming close to an upset in this one as Simon has struggled representing France in the past and is just 5-9 in Davis Cup rubbers. Gilles Simon beat Jan-Lennard Struff earlier this season in France's victory over Germany in the Davis Cup which ended a run of 4 consecutive live rubber losses and was also Simon's first appearance in two seasons.

While he has played well, Simon does have a game which will always give someone a chance of breaking serve. On this surface it might only take one break to settle a set and while I think he might be too consistent for Ward, I'd be surprised if this is a match that is concluded in three sets. James Ward has ended up in some very tough, long matches in Davis Cup in recent years and this could easily be another.


Andy Murray-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Over 3.5 sets: The second rubber on the opening day of this Davis Cup Quarter Final has every chance of at least going three sets too, especially if Jo-Wilfried Tsonga can get some joy out of the Andy Murray second serve.

It is going to be interesting to see how Murray is coping with his surprisingly one-sided defeat to Roger Federer in the Wimbledon Semi Finals, while the British Number 1 will know all about Tsonga. This will be the fifth meeting between the two on grass and while Andy Murray has won the last four, it has to be said that Tsonga has won at least one set in all of those matches.

That includes a couple of three setters at Queens Club in the past and Tsonga is capable of taking the racquet out of Murray's hands if he is serving well and sees enough second serves to attack. His recent form has not been much to write home about as Tsonga had to miss the majority of the grass court season with an injury and was a disappointing Third Round loser to Ivo Karlovic at Wimbledon.

I make Andy Murray a strong favourite to win, but both players have performed very well in Singles duty in Davis Cup and that should inspire Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win at least one set. I think both players will be able to win a set, but Murray is likely to outlast Tsonga from a fitness perspective and eventually come through in four sets. However, I would rather back this match lasting at least four sets which looks a big price considering how previous matches between the two have gone.

Andy Murray and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga have some doubts surrounding them after Wimbledon came to a close and this could be close for a while before Murray takes control.


Anna Karolina Schmiedlova - 2.5 games v Danka Kovinic: Both players have been in good form this week in Bucharest and they could be playing late in the evening which is good news for Danka Kovinic. She had a long, tough match against Julia Goerges in the Second Round, but has been given all the time she will need to be ready for this match, although I have to say Anna Karolina Schmiedlova has been looking very strong.

Matches between them in the past have been split two each and it was Kovinic won their most recent match last year on the hard courts in three tight sets. Back to back long weeks for Kovinic might play a part in this match as an accumulation of fatigue is potentially one hindrance to the player from Montenegro in this Quarter Final.

Both players have had the majority of their success on the clay courts this season, but it is a surface that Kovinic spends much more time on than Schmiedlova. I am not sure that will be enough to see her overcome her opponent who has been serving well and hitting the ball sweetly this week.

As much as I respect Kovinic at this level on this surface, I think Schmiedlova breaks her down in a three set win.


Jan Hernych + 3.5 games v Jack Sock: The tournament in Newport has regularly sprung up some surprise results in the past and this year looks to be no different. The first Semi Final was set last night as Rajeev Ram gets set to take on John-Patrick Smith on Saturday and those two names are not exactly renowned for their impact on the Singles Tour.

There is every chance that Jan Hernych could be another surprise Semi Finalist if he continues building on the momentum which has seen him qualify and win two matches in the main draw. My concern for the veteran won't just be his opponent Jack Sock, who looks the best player left in the draw, but also the fact that he had to play a long, long match with Alejandro Falla in the Second Round.

Three tie-breakers were needed for Hernych to see off Falla, but he did get Thursday off which should help him restore some energy. He is an older player, but Hernych should use the fact he beat Sock here two years ago to give him some mental confidence, as well as the fact that the courts seem to be playing very low which is good for someone who will attack the net and look to volley.

Sock has been a mixed bag in his first two performances here and grass is still a surface that he is getting to grips with as a Singles player. He did win the Doubles title at Wimbledon last year, but I am not sure Sock is happiest on this surface and his serve has not been as solid as he would have liked.

If Hernych serves well, I would expect him to keep this close and perhaps steal a set which will give him a good chance to stay within this number.


Federico Delbonis v Victor Troicki: If there is anything to learn from the Kazakhstan performances in the Davis Cup over the last few years, it is that some player really raise their game when it comes to representing their country in this competition. Victor Troicki has done that for Serbia with his 14-9 record in Davis Cup Singles matches, although the leading player for his nation in this tie has a 2-4 record on clay which is arguably his worst surface.

Argentina will be hoping that is a key for their path through to the Davis Cup Semi Finals and Federico Delbonis has been given one of the matches on the opening day of the Quarter Final. He has been rewarded for winning the vital fifth rubber against Brazil and there is little doubt that Delbonis is most at home on the clay courts.

While Delbonis has a lot of Ranking places to make up, it has to be said that he is 26-18 on the clay in main Tour events over the last two seasons while Troicki is just 6-7. That hasn't been missed by the layers who make this a pick 'em contest, but I think Troicki has been playing a lot of tennis over the last month and might struggle with against a decent clay courter.

Delbonis should be set to go having won a Challenger on the clay last month and only playing a single match on grass which means he has been preparing in Buenos Aires for some time. His experience of winning a decisive fifth rubber should help him in this one and I think Delbonis puts Argentina into a commanding position on the first day.

I like what Troicki has done since returning to the Tour and I do think he will be inspired by being the Number 1 Serbian player, but this is his worst surface and I think it will be tough for him to deal with someone as comfortable on clay as Delbonis.

MY PICKS: Thanasi Kokkinakis - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
James Ward-Gilles Simon Over 3.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Over 3.5 Sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jan Hernych + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-9, - 7.04 Units (30 Units Staked, - 23.47% Yield)