Paris Olympics Tennis Day 3 Picks 2024 (Monday 29th July)

Almost the entirety of the Olympic Games First Round matches were played on Sunday and there was some very good news for fans of the sport.

One, Rafael Nadal was able to play the Singles after concerns about an injury, and two, he won.

This means Rafael Nadal vs Novak Djokovic has been set for the Second Round on the famous French Open grounds and there is every chance that this will be the 'last dance' between two of the all-time greats.

The Second Round match is expected to be played on Tuesday so that is something for everyone to look forward to, although others in the draw will be hoping to make the sporting headlines of their own when the Second Round gets underway on Day 3 at the Paris Olympics.

With the majority of the First Round matches concluded on Sunday, some of the markets for the matches to be played on Monday may not be put together until just a few hours before the players are expected to take the court. Any selections from later in the day may have to be placed in this thread on Monday morning if those markets become available.

Saturday proved to be a tough opening day for the selections, but two winners on Sunday have at least recovered some of the losses. Hopefully that momentum can carry through into Day 3 with the selections below.

Surprisingly, since writing this little passage out, it has been announced that Djokovic vs Nadal will be played on Monday and that should only strengthen the position of the former in his bid to 'upset' the long-time dominant clay court Champion.

Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Rafael Nadal: It has been a little over two years since Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal last met on the Tour and it ended with a win for Nadal on the clay courts of Roland Garros. The Quarter Final victory at the French Open saw Rafael Nadal go on and win a fourteenth title in Paris and it was no surprise that he was a big part of the Opening Ceremony at the Olympic Games.

A month after winning the second Grand Slam of 2022, Rafael Nadal picked up an injury at Wimbledon and his career has been in jeopardy ever since. Earlier this season he arrived at the French Open under another injury cloud and was beaten in the First Round in what many believe is his last appearance at that Grand Slam, and a decision was made to focus on the Olympic Games on the same grounds where Nadal has stamped his mark on history.

Fourteen French Open titles are almost certainly not going to be surpassed by a single player, but Rafael Nadal is not the player he once was and has been struggling for consistency this season. Earlier this month Nadal reached the Final in Bastad in a clay court warm up tournament after missing Wimbledon, but the opponents faced are not up to the level of Novak Djokovic and bridging the gap will be tough.

This is a rivalry of the ages and the players are meeting for an incredible SIXTIETH time on Monday in the Second Round at the Olympic Games, and this is the twenty-ninth match on the clay courts. Unsurprisingly Rafael Nadal has won twenty of those matches on the surface on which he has been most comfortable, but Novak Djokovic has produced a couple of wins over the Spaniard at Roland Garros so there won't be too much intimidation.

He will respect Nadal, but Novak Djokovic is coming off a run to the Wimbledon Final and that will give him confidence as he chases a first Gold Medal. This has been a tough season for Djokovic and he is going to have to serve very well to get the better of even a compromised Nadal.

The scheduling is certainly not ideal for Rafael Nadal having played a tough match on Sunday having competed in the Doubles the previous evening. He has played a couple of matches since Novak Djokovic coasted through his own First Round match on Saturday and there is a feeling that Nadal may just have a few issues keeping his level as high as it will be needed.

Rafael Nadal is just 6-5 on the clay courts against top 100 Ranked opponents this season and has suffered some one-sided defeats.

With an opponent who will play him like he did when Nadal was at his very best, it could be a really tough Second Round match for the Spaniard. It would be so good to see Rafael Nadal find a way to get back to his best, but Novak Djokovic is still very much near his top level and the Serb can wear down his old rival and eventually cover this handicap mark set.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 games v Daniel Evans: It was always going to be a summer in which retirement would be confirmed for Andy Murray and the body has prevented him from playing Singles at Wimbledon and the Olympic Games as hoped. Instead he is playing in the Doubles with Daniel Evans in a bid to win another Gold Medal and Evans has admitted that he is perhaps more focused on ensuring he is ready to compete for Murray, rather than having big ambitions to win a Medal as a Singles player.

It is perhaps a tall task to win a Medal anyway, especially on the clay courts, and Daniel Evans has had a tough twelve months on the Tour with his World Ranking in danger of slipping out of the top 60.

This may mean Daniel Evans is thinking about his long-term plays in a career which has been one of overachievement all things considered. Perhaps the move onto the hard courts will allow Evans to finish this season with a flourish, but he has won just three of the ten matches played on the clay courts this season.

One of those wins was in the First Round at the Olympic Games, but Evans needed three sets to beat the World Number 384 and now faces a considerable step up in class.

Stefanos Tsitsipas will be pretty disappointed with his 2024 and his hopes of winning a Grand Slam title look that much slimmer since the emergence of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner at the top of the ATP Tour. It was Alcaraz who ended Stefanos Tsitsipas' time at the French Open in the Quarter Final, but the Greek player has won a title on the clay courts and is a much stronger player on the surface than Daniel Evans.

This season has been down on the numbers, especially behind serve, and Stefanos Tsitsipas also had to come through in three sets in the First Round despite heading into the opening match as a strong favourite.

It is a concern about his long-term prospects of winning a Medal at the Paris Olympics, but this is a match up that should suit Tsitsipas. He has beaten Daniel Evans in all four previous matches and that includes a couple of wins on the hard courts, while the clay is a domain that should be giving the higher Ranked player a significant edge.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has dominated the Daniel Evans serve on the clay courts, while he has won 72% of service points played. The last of the matches between these players was back in 2022 at the Paris Masters, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has had a significant edge all around and Daniel Evans may lack the motivation to change things around here.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Olympic Games Update: 2-3, - 1.80 Units (10 Units Staked, - 18% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2023- Errol Spence Jr vs Terence Crawford (July 29th)

Boxing is a sport that will always show off elite talent in the most brutal of ways... There really is no hiding place once you've found out the opponent in the other corner is levels above your own skillset.

Sometimes you will see really good fighters find that out when facing an elite, generational talent and that was the case on Tuesday when Stephen Fulton saw his 122 pound World Titles ripped away from him in Tokyo by The Monster.

Naoya Inoue has looked like a superstar, but this was a genuinely tough test for him moving up in weight to face the best Super Bantamweight in the World.

He made it look easy.

Saying that does not make Fulton a bad fighter behind that performance, but it underlines Naoya Inoue's place in the sport right now and not many would pick any other fighter above in the mythical pound for pound list.

For me it was arguably the finest performance from any fighter since the pandemic and Naoya Inoue is almost certainly going to have an opportunity to become Undisputed in his next fight. Doing that in two Divisions in a row will elevate a fighter, who is already a superstar, and Inoue may soon be thinking of taking on Robeisy Ramirez who won comfortably on the undercard.

Stephen Fulton can come again, most likely in the Featherweight Division, but the spoils go to the victor and Naoya Inoue will be the one making the headlines... At least until Sunday morning.

Naoya Inoue would have been elevated to the top spot in most pound for pound Rankings on Tuesday, but on Saturday the Welterweight Division is expected to have an Undisputed Champion in place (assuming no draw) when Errol Spence Jr and Terence Crawford meet.

After the horrible scoring we saw in the United States last week, Boxing has needed a week like this one with two top fights within the space of a few days, but you have to still hope we don't see a Maxi Hughes kind of Decision in the main event.

I really hope Maxi Hughes gets another opportunity having deserved to earn the nod over George Kambosos Jr last weekend.

It was a close fight, but it did feel like Hughes had done enough... And that makes the 117/111 card handed in to favour Kambosos Jr feel all the more nonsensical.

He might not want to admit it, but George Kambosos Jr did earn some home cooking with his name preserved for someone else to beat him and not a fighter of little note world-wide like a tough veteran in Hughes.

Like in the WWE, the rub to beat Kambosos Jr can only be given to a name that can be made on the back of beating the former Undisputed Champion and that is where Boxing has always let itself down. While he will be able to move on to some big fights against the likes of Shakur Stevenson, Maxi Hughes has to hope to be given another deserved opportunity and that just seems unfair considering how well Maxi did in that fight.

Tuesday brought a solid return for the Boxing Picks thanks to Robeisy Ramirez winning in the first half of the fight, which hopefully gives us something to build upon.

The big card on Saturday will be coming from Las Vegas, but there is a decent main event taking place in the United Kingdom before that.

Errol Spence Jr vs Terence Crawford

This has been a fight that has been close before, but never materialised to the frustration of the Boxing fans around the world.

No other fight has mattered in the Welterweight Division over the last couple of years, but it looks like we are finally here with all of the Belts on the line.

Errol Spence Jr and Terence Crawford have been amongst the best pound for pound fighters in the world for a long time- Crawford has to be credited for becoming Undisputed at Light Welterweight before maintaining that run at 147, while Spence Jr has long felt like he has been the King of the Division since knocking off Kell Brook to begin his run.

Fans of both will argue long into the night about the respective resume strength of their favourite compared with the other, while fans of The Truth and Bud will point to their man as the who is currently sitting on the Welterweight throne.

For me I have been a part of Team Truth for a long time and I do genuinely think Errol Spence Jr can win this fight.

In saying that, I have a lot of respect for Bud Crawford and he has shown a killer instinct that makes him very dangerous. He can sometimes need a couple of Rounds to warm into a fight, but once Crawford gets going, he can be very difficult to stop and that will be the challenge for Errol Spence Jr who is the naturally bigger man.

There is plenty of power from the Errol Spence Jr corner too, although he has shown a strong style to break down opponents and not go searching for a Knock Out that has eventually come more often than not anyway. He will feel he can try and fight in a similar manner to his victory over Mikey Garcia when Spence Jr used his size and strong Boxing skills to keep Garcia from mounting any kind of offensive game plan.

It will be much tougher to do that against Terence Crawford, who is bigger than Garcia and who has been at 147 for some time.

No one will doubt the talent that Terence Crawford has and he will certainly feel he can hurt Errol Spence Jr who has been rock hard in his career, but has had one or two moments when he has clearly felt a shot from an opponent. Most notably that happened in the win over Yordenis Ugas, although Spence Jr has suggested he was worried about losing his teeth rather than actually being hurt when momentarily stunned in that contest.

Someone like Crawford has shown he is like a shark that smells blood in the water- if he thinks he has you hurt, he is willing to unload everything to force the contest to an end. Even against an elite opponent like Errol Spence Jr, Terence Crawford will be looking to press those moments and it just has the makings of a really fun fight.

We have not seen Crawford hurt since moving up to Welterweight, but Spence Jr is the biggest, toughest puncher he will have fought in the Division. So while we have not seen it in a while, I don't think it is impossible for Errol Spence Jr to put Terence Crawford in a tough spot where he is forced to hang on.

However, Terence Crawford is a really smart fighter and you have to believe that after a few Rounds he is going to have worked out the established approach that Errol Spence Jr has long used to dominate his opponents. A sharpshooting counter puncher like Crawford could easily lure Spence Jr into a monster shot, while most will feel that Bud has a bit more creativity to his style which will allow him to make more adjustments if he feels the fight is slipping away.

It does feel like Errol Spence Jr's tactic has to work- he will find it tougher to make those in-ring adjustments and that is where the difference is perhaps being felt in Vegas who have Terence Crawford as the favourite. They will feel he can win this fight in more ways than Errol Spence Jr and ultimately that makes it much easier to pick Crawford as the favourite.

Of course that is not to say that Errol Spence Jr cannot make a fast enough start to bank the early Rounds and eventually take this on a Decision, but fans of Bud Crawford are going to feel that their man will make the necessary adjustments to turn this fight before too many Rounds have been lost. His counter-punching style and offensive output when an opponent is hurt will also have Crawford fans believing that he can put Errol Spence Jr down for the first time and potentially do enough to have the referee step in late.

Inactivity is going to be a problem for The Truth a little more than Crawford, while you can never really know how those car crashes that Errol Spence Jr has been involved in will catch up with him. Retina issues have also come up, which prevented Spence Jr from taking on Manny Pacquiao, and there does seem to be a few more miles on the clock compared with Terence Crawford.

I have always been a fan of Errol Spence Jr, but Terence Crawford deserves the utmost respect and has proven himself as a good person outside of the ring with his charitable acts. I would not begrudge Crawford winning, although at this point I don't really want to see either of these absolute elite boxers lose.

Someone has to lose though and my heart is rooting for Errol Spence Jr, but my head is leaning towards Terence Crawford maybe doing just enough on the cards. He might even score a flash Knock Down that ends up being the difference, but Spence Jr is also more than capable of putting Crawford on the canvas and there is so little to choose between them.

This is genuinely the best fight we have had put together in a long time and I am going to stay firmly on the fence with any prediction- seriously, this is one to enjoy without any kind of pick.

Let's be honest, when you have a fight of this magnitude, the undercard does not have to be as loaded as other events.

That is the case for this one in Las Vegas, although there will be some interest to see the outcome of those bouts.

Sergio Garcia is heading back to the United States to try and pick up a win after losing to Sebastian Fundora and Tony Harrison in Decisions- the Spaniard has had the money come in on him with him down as the favourite against Yoenis Tellez, although little is really known about the Cuban who had a 23-6 amateur record.

It is an important fight for Garcia who will have opportunities in the Light Middleweight Division if Jermell Charlo decides to relinquish his Titles after becoming Undisputed and now moving up to face Canelo in September.

Yoenis Tellez is a late replacement, but was preparing for a fight next month, and this feels a considerable step up in class from the previous five professionals faced. He has fought on a big card before, but not with these kind of eyes on the event and Tellez may just find this is a steep learning curve.

This week we have already seen Naoya Inoue in action as he moved up to Super Bantamweight to win two World Titles in that Division, but he has left his Undisputed Titles fractured at Bantamweight.

One of his previous victims, Nonito Donaire, will be on the undercard looking to pick up the vacant WBC World Title when facing Alexandro Santiago in a fight that was pushed back a couple of weeks onto this card.

At 40 years old you have to wonder how much Donaire has left and even more so considering we last saw him being blitzed inside two Rounds by the aforementioned Inoue. That bout took place over twelve months ago and you have to believe that he is going to be vulnerable in this one against a decent fighter in his Mexican opponent.

A very close loss to then unbeaten Gary Antonio Russell shows what Alexandro Santiago is capable of, and the younger fighter has won three in a row since that defeat. The last two wins have been in the time that Donaire has not been out in the ring, so Santiago may have an edge thanks to activity, while a victory over Antonio Nieves is a decent one.

This is the biggest platform Alexandro Santiago will have had, and his toughest opponent on paper- if Donaire is anywhere near his best, you would expect him to win, but I can't help feel his best days are behind him and this is a big opportunity for Santiago to make up for what he will feel was a tough loss to Russell.

He will have to be wary of the power that Donaire has, but Alexandro Santiago can earn a mini-upset and win the World Title.

The chief support fight on the undercard will feature Isaac Cruz who continues to push for a rematch with Gervonta Davis.

He is facing an unbeaten opponent in Giovanni Cabrera who is taller by some margin and had a solid win over Gabriel Flores Jr twelve months ago, but inactivity is an issue for the American.

You can't help but feel that Isaac Cruz is being put in a position for that rematch with Tank and so his handlers are unlikely to have him in a risky fight. The two wins since his loss to Davis have both been inside the first half of contests and you have to believe he is going to come out swinging at the taller man.

Giovanni Cabrera has shown he has some skills so has to be respected, but Isaac Cruz is looking to make a big statement and I think he can achieve that relatively early.

Before all eyes turn to Las Vegas, there is a decent looking main event in the UK.

Moses Itauma needed the cards in his his third win as a professional in April, although that victory looks pretty handy considering Kostiantyn Dovbyshchenko was last seen stopping Matty Harris.

A hand issue seemed to be an issue for Itauma, but he can get back on the Stoppage trail with a victory against a tough opponent in Kevin Nicolas Espindola who had to retire with a hand issue in his defeat to Frazer Clarke.

Prior to that he had lost six times without being Stopped, but the feeling is that Moses Itauma can put enough punches together to maybe have the referee step in during this contest.

The main event will be a grudge fight between Jason Cunningham and Liam Davies.

There is clearly no love lost between them in what feels like a crossroads fight- Davies is looking to push on to the level that Cunningham has fought at, while the latter feels like he may be on the way down the mountain.

All credit has to be given to Jason Cunningham for making a career for himself that he has, but Liam Davies is younger, fresher and fighting in front of his fans. He is not exactly known for his punch power, but Davies has shown he has enough pop and the feeling is that he can wear down an older fighter with plenty of miles on the clock.

Jason Cunningham returned from a devastating loss to Zolani Tete to win a Ten Rounder in March, but that loss to Tete might still be on the back of the mind if Liam Davies is able to turn the screw in this contest.

The Decision win for Davies is the favourite play, but the suggestion is that the home crowd will keep Liam Davies motivated to finish this fight if the opportunity is there do that. There is no doubting the toughness of Jason Cunningham who has had a number of upsets in recent fights, but the younger, fresher Davies can turn it on late and force a Stoppage victory.

MY PICKS: Sergio Garcia to Win @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alexandro Santiago to Win @ 2.40 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Isaac Cruz to Win Between 1-6 @ 3.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Moses Itauma to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Liam Davies to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 3.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 34-61, - 19.32 Units (178 Units Staked, - 10.85% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (July 29th)

The tournaments being played this week are into the Semi Final stage on Saturday and I have something to build upon from Friday having seen the Tennis Picks end up with a 4-1 day.

It is the best single day since Wimbledon, and it was nice to be on the right side of a capitulation having had some tough luck losses of late.

With the tournaments winding down, there are only a handful of matches scheduled to be played and that is also because of the rain in Warsaw which means that event is playing catch up through Saturday.

Anna Bondar v Elisabetta Cocciaretto: The tournament in Lausanne has seen some surprises this week and it has been an important one for the players who are trying to pick up some vital World Ranking points ahead of the final Grand Slam of the season. Many playing here will be much more comfortable on the clay courts compared with the hard courts and so there may not feel like a lot of opportunities to improve Rankings over the next month.

It has been a tough twelve months for Anna Bondar, but winning the tournament this weekend will mean pushing back into the top 100. This will give her plenty of motivation and her performances in her three wins here this week have been solid, especially behind serve.

A good win over Mirra Andreeva will have given Anna Bondar some confidence, but this is the toughest test she might be facing this week against Elisabetta Cocciaretto who is already assured of a new career high World Ranking inside the top 40. Winning the title might mean cracking the top 30 and giving her a chance of being Seeded for the US Open draw next month and there is no doubt how well Cocciaretto is playing after coming from 5-0 down to win thirteen of sixteen games in her Quarter Final win on Friday.

Both players have produced very strong returning numbers, but Anna Bondar has gotten a little more out of her serve and that could be the difference for the underdog in this Semi Final.

That was the case when Bondar beat Elisabetta Cocciaretto last year on the clay courts, although the improvement of the Italian over the last year and the loss of form of Bondar is likely to mean this one is more competitve.

Even with that in mind, Anna Bondar might just be able to get a few more cheap points out of the serve, especially the first serve, and that may make the difference for her in a week where she has found some of her best tennis. Twelve months ago Anna Bondar was Ranked Number 50 and she has shown enough quality on the clay courts to beat a specialist like Elisabetta Cocciaretto as the underdog.

Laslo Djere - 2.5 games v Zhizhen Zhang: This is an ATP 500 event being played in Hamburg so there are some big names that have entered the draw.

It makes this Semi Final all the more surprising, although both Laslo Djere and Zhizhen Zhang deserve their place in the final four having produced some quality wins already this week.

Out of the two players, Laslo Djere can argue he has had the stronger victories compared with Zhizhen Zhang and that could be key in helping get through this tough Semi Final. It is going to be difficult, but it is a winnable match for Djere, although Zhizhen Zhang has to be given a lot of respect for producing his best tennis when playing higher Ranked players than himself.

However, his best win this week has been against the World Number 45 and that does not compare to the victory Laslo Djere produced against defending Champion Lorenzo Musetti.

The serve has been a big weapon this week, but Djere has shown a bit more consistency on the return compared with his overall numbers on the clay courts, while Zhang has been overachieving. Zhizhen Zhang has found a way to get to Break Points even though his return has not been the best on the surface in 2023 and he has played those points really well, but Zhang may also need a bit more out of his serve to win this match.

Both have served well in the conditions and have to be respected, but Laslo Djere looks to be performing a little bit better and can earn the edge over the course of a couple of hours on court in this Semi Final match up.

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Arthur Fils: Any player that can hand out the kind of one-sided beating that Arthur Fils put together against Casper Ruud has to be respected.

Doing so on the grass would be perhaps not so notable, but Fils crushed Ruud in the Hamburg Quarter Final on a clay court and there is no doubting the kind of confidence boost this could offer the young Frenchman.

He saw his compatriot Luca Van Assche struggle to make much of an impact against Alexander Zverev on Friday, but Arthur Fils may feel his overall game is much bigger than Van Assche's and that makes him more dangerous.

However, Arthur Fils may need to find another level even to the one he produced against Casper Ruud if he is going to be Alexander Zverev in this Semi Final. The home player has been well supported in Hamburg and Zverev has been a very strong winner in all three matches played here and is serving at a huge level.

This has allowed Zverev to really have a go when it comes to the return of serve and he has broken at least three times in all three wins. While Arthur Fils had a strong serving day in the Quarter Final, he was given more of an examination by Dusan Lajovic in the Second Round and the Fils numbers have been far overachieving his overall performance on the clay courts.

Like his opponent, Arthur Fils has used his strong serving to give him some freedom on the return of serve and that has certainly worked for him in his three wins in Hamburg.

Playing against Alexander Zverev should be much tougher and Arthur Fils will struggle to match the emotion of his Quarter Final win. It makes it all the more difficult considering how well Zverev is playing this week and the home fans can push their favourite through to the Final.

MY PICKS: Anna Bondar to Win @ 2.37 Bet365 (2 Units)

Laslo Djere - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 11-10, - 1.60 Units (42 Units Staked, - 3.81% Yield)

Olympic Tennis Day 6 Picks 2021 (July 29th)

After more criticism of the Tennis schedule at the Olympic Games, the organisers have finally decided to delay the start of each day and that is good news for those of us in Europe with the matches now beginning at a more manageable time.

It is a shame it has taken the organisers so long to change the schedule and it might have been the sad sight of seeing Paula Badosa having to be taken off the court in a wheelchair that prompted it. Daniil Medvedev went as far as to ask the Umpire in his match who would be responsible if he was to die in the heat that Tokyo experienced on Wednesday, but it did feel like stubbornness had taken over and the players were not going to be listened to.

Things have changed as we are down to the Quarter Finals of the Men's event, while the four Women remaining will decide whether they are playing for a Gold Medal later this week or having to pick themselves up for a shot at the Bronze. The two winners on Thursday will guarantee their Medal opportunity with the Final deciding the Gold and Silver and it does mean one player is going to miss out completely, but it is up to the players to focus on the match in front of them.

Like many of the WTA draws over the last three or four years, new faces are getting to the business end of tournaments all the time and the winner of the Gold Medal looks like being as surprising as the last one when Monica Puig took home the top prize.

At this moment the Men's draw looks more clear as Novak Djokovic continues to brush aside all in front of him as he looks to add the Gold Medal to the three Grand Slams he has won in 2021. Alexander Zverev, Karen Khachanov and Daniil Medvedev may be the biggest threats left in the draw, but Novak Djokovic has been on easy street for much of the tournament and looks like there are still gears to move through as he peaks towards the weekend.

After a poor Day 4, it was a much stronger Day 5 at the Olympic Games for the Tennis Picks and hopefully the start of a strong end to this tournament.

I have not had the time to write out full analysis of some of the Tennis Picks for Thursday, but I have researched these selections and will look for the momentum to carry through another day.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov-Ugo Humbert Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jeremy Chardy + 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Olympic Games: 19-14, + 3.42 Units (66 Units Staked, + 5.18% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 29th)

Leaving last week with a positive number was a surprise considering how the week had developed and it keeps the Tennis Picks chugging along in 2019. Being able to add to what has been a successful season is a good thing and this week we move on to more events ahead of the really big hard court events that take place in early August.

Those events in Canada and Cincinnati are the big warm up events for the top names on the Tour as we approach the final Grand Slam of the 2019 season at the US Open in New York City. That Slam begins in just under a month from now, but there is quite a bit of tennis to get through even though Novak Djokovic announced he won't be playing too much warm up tennis ahead of the US Open.


This week the Tour moves to Washington, San Jose, Los Cabos and Kitzbuhel with the last of those the only one being played on the clay courts. The rest of the tournaments are hard court events and there are a number of players who have shifted from the clay of Umag, Bastad and Hamburg to the hard courts so that is something to be aware of this week.

With the differing time zones of the various events being played, it does mean that the thread is going to have some selections added to it after it has been posted. Those selections will mainly be from Los Cabos and San Jose which are being played at least seven hours behind the London time zone so markets and order of players will be coming out much later than the ones for Kitzbuhel or Washington.


I am looking for a more consistent week than the last one, although I am always pleased if a winning record is produced. That is the minimum I look for in each week as I look for my own momentum to take into the final Grand Slam of the season which begins at the end of next month.

Monday is usually a quiet day compared with Tuesday in these weeks- there are some First Round matches scheduled for Monday, but the majority of them will be played the following day. I do have some selections from the Monday offerings though which can be read below.

I have also updated the season totals at the bottom of this thread.


Lorenzo Sonego v Federico Delbonis: He might have reached a career high Ranking ahead of Wimbledon, but Lorenzo Sonego has not been able to build on that in the last month. A First Round loss in Gstaad last week means the Italian has actually lost his last six matches on the main Tour on the clay courts and it does make Lorenzo Sonego a hard player to back.

However I do think he can find a way to get back to winning ways when he faces Federico Delbonis in the First Round in Kitzbuhel. He has shown better form than Sonego over the last month with a Challenger title secured as well as a run to the Semi Final in Bastad and a tight loss to Alexander Zverev in Hamburg last week.

On the pure numbers you would have to say that Delbonis deserves his spot as the favourite as well as the fact that Sonego has been on the losing run on the clay courts at the main ATP level. The Argentinian has been holding in 76% of his service games played on the clay courts while he has broken in 29% of return games and it is the success on the return that does give him an edge in this one.

While Lorenzo Sonego is a very good server who can build pressure with that shot, he has struggled to breaking in just 19% of return games played on the clay courts. It is a big difference between the two players, but Sonego has been much more comfortable when he has faced Delbonis.

These two players have met twice on the clay courts since September 2018 with the last of those matches coming earlier this year. In those matches the Lorenzo Sonego serve has been the bigger weapon with 95% of his service games being held compared with Federico Delbonis being down at 75%. The Italian has also kept Delbonis under pressure in those return games with 42% of the points won on the Delbonis serve and I do think Sonego will feel his serve can keep his opponent feeling the pressure in this one too.

I think this is going to be a close match and it looks to be one that Sonego will feel comfortable with. That makes the underdog appealing considering how he has played against Federico Delbonis and a strong serving day will give the Italian every chance of earning the upset.


Hugo Dellien v Roberto Carballas Baena: Coming through the Qualifiers to make the main draws of Hamburg and Kitzbuhel will certainly give Hugo Dellien some confidence, but he has not been able to have a deep run in any of the events played since Wimbledon concluded. The draws have not been that kind to the Bolivian who has been beaten by Juan Ignacio Londero in Bastad (who reached the Final there, and then Nikoloz Basilashvili in Hamburg (who won the title there).

Both defeats have been competitive enough to believe Dellien is feeling pretty good about his game and he is looking to surpass his career best World Number 74 position which was earned earlier this year. It will mean Hugo Dellien needs to have a big week to put some strong Ranking points in the bank, but this looks to be another difficult early match in the main draw.

Hugo Dellien has been very comfortable on the clay courts with some strong results, but the majority of those have come under the main Tour. The same can be said for Roberto Carballas Baena, although back to back Quarter Final runs in Bastad and Gstaad will make the Spaniard feel pretty good about his level going into this event.

On the numbers the slight edge has to be given to Carballas Baena who has held onto his serve in 76% of games played on the clay courts in 2019, while Hugo Dellien is at 73%. There is also a slight edge in terms of the return on this surface with Carballas Baena breaking in 33% of return games compared with Dellien being at 32%, but the percentage of points won by the two players are virtually identical.

It is the Bolivian who may hold the mental edge having beaten Carballas Baena in Rio de Janeiro earlier this year in a match where he created three times as many break points as his opponent. Roberto Carballas Baena really struggled with his serve on that day and I do think Hugo Dellien could frank that win having put a couple of wins on the board in the Qualifiers to become accustomed with the conditions in Kitzbuhel.

With very similar numbers, the value seems to be with Hugo Dellien here and I am going to back the underdog to win.


Ivo Karlovic v Bjorn Fratangelo: No one will be doubting that Ivo Karlovic is on the downward slope of his career, but he still possesses a big serve which will give him chances in matches. That is especially the case in matches like this one in the First Round in Washington, and I am not entirely sure Karlovic should be the underdog.

He might be 40 years old, but Ivo Karlovic has held 95% of his service games played on the hard courts and that is a number that surpasses the 2016, 2017 and 2018 season totals on the surface. The return of serve continues to be an issue for Karlovic, but he will be hoping he can build some scoreboard pressure in this one by trying to run through his service games and make Bjorn Fratangelo feel like he is serving all the time.

This has been a difficult season for Fratangelo who has held 81% of the service games he has played on the hard courts while he has broken in 18% of return games. The American will receive the support from the fans, but he has also struggled in his two previous matches against Karlovic and will need some luck to get through this match.

Ivo Karlovic has held in 90% of his service games played against Bjorn Fratangelo in their two previous matches. At the same time the Croatian has broken in just under 20% of return games played and I think that is a significant edge considering the last match between them was less than twelve months ago.

The feeling is that Karlovic can use his serve to edge out Fratangelo in this one and I am not sure he should be the underdog in the match. At the prices I will back Ivo Karlovic in this opening Round match in Washington.

MY PICKS: Lorenzo Sonego @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Hugo Dellien @ 2.37 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2019: + 117.55 Units (1389 Units Staked, + 8.46% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2017- Mikey Garcia vs Adrien Broner (July 29th)

I've said it before and I will say it again- 2017 has been a wonderful year for Boxing with some huge fights being signed and yet another big fight takes place this weekend when Mikey Garcia is set to move up in weight to face 'The Problem' Adrien Broner.

It's a far closer fight than most initially expected and headlines at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, while back in the United Kingdom Carl Frampton returns from his first professional defeat to try and get back into a position to fight for a World Title. Whether that is against Lee Selby or a third fight with Leo Santa Cruz remains to be seen, but it does make for another interesting night of boxing.


Of course we are also less than a month away from Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor which is the fight that has captured the imagination of the casual fan. I still don't see anything but a comfortable win for 49-0 Mayweather, but that is a story for another day.

By that time we may also know who Anthony Joshua is going to take on next with the leading contender looking to be a rematch with Wladimir Klitschko under the bright lights of Las Vegas. That could be a special night in November, although there has been little sound coming from the Ukrainian who has yet to officially exercise his rematch clause.

That was supposed to be announced in June, yet here we are in July where Eddie Hearn and AJ continue working towards holding the event in Las Vegas. Cardiff is also being held as a back up in case Klitschko decides to call it a day and then it will be Joshua vs Kubrat Pulev who is the current mandatory for the IBF Title Joshua holds.

Any fight with Tyson Fury looked to move further away when the former Champion announced yet another retirement this past week, although I still think Fury will return for that mega-fight that won't happen before the summer of 2018 anyway.


Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin continues to come forward at a pace and the very interesting World Boxing Super Series will also begin in September and the potential for some huge fights over the next ten months in that tournament too. All in all, Boxing looks to be in a wonderful place.


It isn't just the boxing fights that will have my attention on Saturday night as we see the long awaited rematch between Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier in the UFC. These two legitimately don't like one another and it really is the fight that will determine the best Light-Heavyweight in the UFC and makes for another intriguing fight. That one will be on record and I will catch up Sunday morning with my main attention being on the boxing on Saturday night.

Carl Frampton vs Andres Gutierrez

The return of 'The Jackal' will make for a big occasion for the Northern Irish fans who have followed their hero to the United States for two huge nights over the last twelve months.

Many would have hoped this was going to be the third of a mooted trilogy with Leo Santa Cruz, but the latter decided he didn't want to do it at Windsor Park and so Andres Gutierrez has been picked for the 'homecoming' fight.

Any time you get in the ring with a Mexican is not going to be an easy night though and Frampton will need to be at his best. Winning this fight opens the door to the potential rubber fight with Santa Cruz or for a huge domestic fight with Lee Selby, but a second consecutive loss would be tough for Frampton to recover from.

Like many from his nation, including Canelo Alvarez, Gutierrez started life as a professional when he was very young and at 24 years old he has had more Knock Out wins than Frampton has had fights. You do have to respect that Gutierrez is likely to be tough and rugged like the late Alejandro Gonzalez Jr proved to be when dropping Frampton twice in Texas when they fought two years ago.

Like Gonzalez Jr, the Gutierrez resume is not one that is littered with too many known fighters and he was beaten by Cristian Mijares on a Majority Decision when stepping up to face an opponent who had fought at world level before. The biggest win is probably the Unanimous Decision over Ray Perez, but that doesn't exactly mean he is cut it to beat Frampton in front of a raucous home support.

Gutierrez is the taller fighter and has a considerable reach advantage which may make life a little more awkward for Frampton. While the Frampton team are talking about him being ready to make a real statement, stopping Gutierrez won't be easy and it may come down to the scorecards again.

Five of the last six Frampton fights have gone the distance and he has won four of those. You would imagine he is going to be given credit for any really close Rounds and I will be looking for Frampton to likely win this one with a Unanimous Decision.

I am just not convinced Frampton has the punching power to stop Gutierrez who will be looking to make his mark on the big stage and unlikely to allow the Mexican spirit to waver. There is always a fear that the referee could get involved, but I think this will be a close enough fight to see all 12 Rounds completed and Frampton to earn the Decision by around 116-112.

The weight issue shouldn't be of huge concern as it feels like an error from Frampton rather than an issue that may be longer term.

EDIT: This fight has been called off after Andres Gutierrez suffered a freak accident the day before the scheduled fight.

Jarrell Miller vs Gerald Washington

There is a lot of hype around Jarrell Miller which 'Big Baby' has contributed to by calling out the very top names in the Heavyweight Division. The 29 year old will be fighting in front of his home fans on Saturday night and has a chance to put together a statement win over Gerald Washington who was last beaten by Deontay Wilder.

The 5th Round Knock Out showed that Washington has some way to go to win a World Title, but he was boxing well before the big punch landed. That may mean his resistance is a question mark when facing an opponent like Miller who has stopped 16 opponents in his 18 wins.

It has been almost a year since Miller was last in the ring though and I think that could be an issue if he is not able to get Washington out early as he has been suggesting. While Miller wants to win this one in quicker fashion than Wilder to put his name out there as a future World Title challenger, I can see a situation develop where tiredness becomes a factor.

No matter how many Rounds of sparring have been completed, boxing a real fight is a much different story. Washington hasn't exactly been active, but he did have that fight with Wilder where he would have learned he can box with a World Champion and have success, which was highlighted in the cards at the time of the stoppage.

We saw Dominic Breazeale bounce back from his World Title defeat to Anthony Joshua with a solid win as the underdog, and I think Washington may be able to produce the upset. I will be looking for Washington to avoid the threatening Miller early in the fight and perhaps out box him when Miller begins to get tired as he surely will at some point.

Scoring Knock Outs is what the Heavyweight Division is all about, so you can't ignore the fact that Washington may be able to put Miller away, but I think the tactic will be to out box him. Being 'away from home' makes going for a Decision a risky move, but I can see Miller being frustrated if he hasn't got rid of Washington early and ring rust to take over.

Of course Washington may be someone whose whiskers could struggle when tested again, but having a small interest in the underdog to win this one on a Decision could prove to be a big price.

Jermall Charlo vs Jorge Sebastian Heiland

The move to Middleweight begins for Jermall Charlo who will be fighting at his heaviest weight in his professional career on Saturday. The door has been opened for the unbeaten former Super Welterweight World Champion who will be in line to face the winner of the Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin super-fight in September.

He faces a rugged Argentinian in his first fight at this weight and Jorge Sebastian Heiland will be hoping to spoil the party. However it is his more natural weight compared with Charlo, although it does feel like the American is going to grow into this weight easy enough with the height and reach to be dangerous.

The question will be about the punching power and whether that also makes it way up the weights. Seventeen of Charlo's last nineteen fights have ended inside the distance, but Heiland has never been stopped and this is not going to be easy for Charlo.

However I think Heiland has not really fought at this level and this feels like a coming out party for Charlo at Middleweight and potentially set up a huge fight with the winner of Canelo-Triple G in 2018. It might take some time to break down someone with the experience Heiland has, but I can see Charlo potentially working his way into a position to earn the stoppage as we reach the second half of the fight.

It may even take the referee or the corner to pull Heiland from the punishment the longer the fight goes, but eventually I expect to see Charlo in that position. Heiland is tough, like many from Argentina tend to be, but this is a chance for Charlo to 'steal the show' as he has been promising and I can see him showing off the power from the Super Welterweight level as a fully fledged Middleweight and earn a stoppage later in this fight.

A small interest in Charlo getting it done in the second half of the fight is worth taking here. Backing that to happen between 7-9 Rounds looks to be worth a small interest.

Mikey Garcia vs Adrien Broner

As soon as this fight was announced, I was really intrigued by it and why the two fighters had decided to go in this direction.

It felt like both Mikey Garcia and Adrien Broner could have headed elsewhere than taking on what looks like arguably the biggest challenge of their careers. That especially feels the case for Garcia in all honesty with Broner having tangled with the likes of Shawn Porter and Marcos Maidana and I was a little surprised that 'The Problem' has been written off by many when the fight was announced.

A lot of that has to do with a 'lazy' attitude and perhaps not being very likeable with the hope that Broner will lose and allow Garcia to move on to better things. However Broner has looked good in making weight and I really think he can surprise the oddsmakers with a career best performance that once again makes him a big name.

Broner is a name, but his recent struggles in and out of the ring has reduced the appeal and he is coming in as the 'B' side of this promotion. That does mean he might be unfavoured in tight Rounds which is a concern, but Broner has shown toughness and I am not sure Garcia will be able to hit as hard as the likes of Maidana who put Broner down twice in his win over the American.

You can't always be sure what kind of frame of mind Broner will turn up in, but I think he will be the bigger man on the night and Garcia might find him a little awkward. If Broner is feeling up to the task, he can certainly give Garcia so many issues to resolve and I think there is every chance he is able to impose himself on this fight.

I really think it will be close, much closer than the layers seem to believe. I have been convinced by Broner's attitude leading up to the fight and him making the weight in the manner he did is a positive, while Broner doesn't look drained like many feared he could.

Being the 'B' side may mean Broner has to work a little more to win the Rounds than he is used to, but he has been in with some tough competition and I think that shows up here. Broner needs this fight more than Garcia who can go back down a weight and put together some big fights, and I think that is something that makes a difference.

I can't imagine Broner doing enough to stop Garcia, but I can see him taking a tight Split Decision points win and I will back 'The Problem' to be find the answers in a Decision win.

MY PICKS: Gerald Washington By Decision/Technical Decision @ 6.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Jarmall Charlo Win Between 7-9 @ 6.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Adrien Broner By Decision/Technical Decision @ 7.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Tennis Picks 2017 (July 29th)

There are some weeks where you just can't seem to catch a break and I have no doubt that this is one of those.

Two more matches had every chance of winning going into the final set on Friday and both went the wrong way meaning almost every pick this week that has been beaten has been beaten in the final set. Winning more points has meant nothing, having the superior numbers overall haven't met anything and to say I have been frustrated is putting it mildly.

While it has been a crappy week in general, it could end on a bright note but I will have more about that in the coming days.

Friday was another busy day which means I am not able to put up a full post, but I will get back to the normal threads either on Saturday, if there are any picks from the Finals being played, or on Sunday for the opening matches of the new tournaments beginning on Monday.


MY PICKS: Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Yannick Hanfmann + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Canadian Masters Tennis Picks 2016 (July 29th)

We have reached the Quarter Finals in Toronto and Montreal as the Rogers Cup/Coupe Rogers has gotten to the business end of the event.

It hasn't felt like a Masters tournament without the likes of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray involved in the ATP Masters event in Toronto, but I guess we have to get used to that. With Federer already out for the season and Nadal suffering with his wrist issues, Murray might be battling Novak Djokovic the rest of the way in the big events remaining in 2016.

The battle for the Number 1 Ranking is firmly up in the air too, especially if Djokovic is not at his best physically as the rumour mill keeps suggesting and the next few months could be huge for Andy Murray to tick off another achievement in what has been a wonderful career.

The WTA Premier Event in Montreal has seen most of the big names in action, although the absence of Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka for differing reasons has taken away some of the names most familiar to casual fans.

It has been a decent week there too, but again it feels like something has been missing with the Olympic Games perhaps taking away some of the motivation in this event.


Thursday was a disappointing day for the picks, but it has still been a half decent week. The last three days will be key to end the tournament on a high and keep the momentum of this month behind the picks going into August where there will be plenty of big events taking place as well as the start of the US Open.

Picks from the Quarter Final matches to be played on Friday will be made once the markets are available.


Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 games v Kevin Anderson: It has been a strong week for Kevin Anderson who has not been showing a lot of form since coming back to the Tour from an injury. That included early losses in Wimbledon and Washington, but Anderson should have been given plenty of confidence from his come from behind win over Bernard Tomic.

They key was the serving in the second set when facing eight break points early which could have seen the match get away from Anderson. However he saved those and then looked the stronger player against the Australian, but Anderson will need to improve again if he is to beat Stan Wawrinka.

Wawrinka hasn't always been at his best this week, but he is doing just enough to come through his matches, while he win over Jack Sock has to be respected considering how the American has been playing. The Swiss player has gotten used to having a target on his back as one of the top Seeds, and he did snap a four match losing run against Anderson by beating him when they last met at the US Open in 2015.

It is a close match because the Anderson serve can be a frustration for Wawrinka and I think that is why the South African had a strong recent record against him. There is always a chance Wawrinka will have a bad serving day which would cost him against someone who serves as well as Anderson on the hard courts, but I am not completely convinced the latter is at his best form.

A first set tie-breaker could be the key moment of the match- if Wawrinka can take that, I imagine he will have a similar response to what he did against Sock on Thursday and can beat Anderson 76, 64 for a place in the Semi Final.


Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: After yet another poor display in the First Round, Grigor Dimitrov somehow came through his match against Yuichi Sugita. That was a match he has been losing consistently through 2016, but the win might have sparked something as Dimitrov has not dropped a set since on his way through to the Quarter Final.

However the last two opponents have not been to the standard that Kei Nishikori will bring to the court and I am not convinced Dimitrov has turned a corner in his form.

In this match he will be pressured on his serve thanks to the Nishikori quality when it comes to the return game and that has seen Dimitrov throw away his own serve in recent weeks. Forcing Dimitrov to play a few more balls than he would like will see errors creep into the Bulgarian game and I do think Nishikori can create a few break point chances in this one.

The key for Nishikori will be to serve well and keep the pressure on Dimitrov through this match. You know there will be times when Dimitrov fashions break points too, but Nishikori has looked strong in Toronto and I think he will be the better player consistently when the rallies are developed. That should help Nishikori come through this match with a 64, 64 win and his place in the Semi Final on Saturday.


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Tomas Berdych: I have been an interested spectator when it comes to Novak Djokovic this week after the suggestions he had some sort of physical issue in his defeat to Sam Querrey at Wimbledon. There were then some rumours that he had to end his practice session earlier in the week in Toronto before the scheduled time, but Djokovic has played well in his two wins so far.

This is the biggest test for him when he faces Tomas Berdych who has been serving well, but not exactly been on fire when it comes to his returning game. A match that Djokovic has dominated through his career, it will be interesting to see if there are any mental or physical scars that the World Number 1 is battling through.

So far he has looked in control and Djokovic doesn't mind this match up as he is able to get plenty of the big Berdych serves back in play and he will always feel he can do very well in the rallies against this opponent. It might be tougher if Djokovic is not quite feeling 100%, but Berdych also has to get over the mental hurdle of facing someone who has beaten him eleven times in a row and won the last twelve sets they have played.

Djokovic has looked good enough this week that I don't mind backing him in this Quarter Final against Berdych. While another big serving display from Berdych makes him dangerous through this match, I think Djokovic can negate that weapon and come through with a 75, 63 win.


Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 4.5 games v Madison Keys: After her success at Wimbledon, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has backed it up at her first tournament on the hard courts with her run to the Quarter Final this week. She had an impressive win over Agnieszka Radwanska in the Third Round which has opened the draw for her, but this is a big match for her against Madison Keys who hammered Venus Williams in the same Round.

Expect plenty of big serving and big shot making in this one as both players look to play first strike tennis and it is going to be an interesting match. I am surprised that Pavlyuchenkova is being given so many games, but I think the layers believe Keys has the securer serve of the two players as well as the superior movement around the court.

However I don't think either is a great defender so Pavlyuchenkova can dictate rallies if she does get the first big strike in which makes her a dangerous opponent in this Quarter Final. Keys can be a very strong player on the hard courts and can dismiss opponents with little effort behind her big game, but someone like Pavlyuchenkova is playing with enough confidence to win a set and keep this match competitive.

That is what makes me feel this is too many games being given to the Russian even if she can sometimes be loose behind her serve. She has been firing in the last couple of Rounds and I think her power can give Keys some issues to contend with in what looks a close match. Taking this many games looks like the right call and I will back Pavlyuchenkova to get within the number even in a losing effort.


Johanna Konta - 5.5 games v Kristina Kucova: After winning in Stanford, Johanna Konta could have been forgiven for not being at her best in Montreal. However the British Number 1 has looked dominant so far this week and a look through the draw should have Konta believing she can add an even bigger prize to her trophy cabinet than the one she won last week.

It has been a really dominant week from Konta as she has barely dropped games on her way through the draw. In what should have been a big Quarter Final against home favourite Eugenie Bouchard, Konta will believe she has been given a good draw against Kristina Kucova who has played more tennis this week than she is perhaps used to.

You have to respect anyone who has come through the Qualifiers as Kucova has, especially when they have backed that up with three wins in the main draw. However she has been forced to come from behind in every win in the main draw against Yanina Wickmayer, the Washington Champion last week, Carla Suarez Navarro and Bouchard.

That won't be as easy against a front runner like Konta who has gotten stronger in the second set in each of her three wins this week. She has been serving so well that Kucova will be under pressure throughout this match and Konta has been returning well enough to break serve 12/26 times she has had those opportunities.

The Kucova serve has been broken twelve times in three main draw matches this week and Konta has only faced six break points. That can be the difference maker as Konta creates all the chances and wears down her opponent physically and mentally for a 63, 63 win and a place in the next Round.

MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 16-12, + 3.56 Units (56 Units Staked, + 6.36% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2015 (July 29th)

It was always going to be difficult to get the taste of last week out of the mouth, but I have moved on and looking to get this season back on track after a truly horrific week.

Shoots of revival sprouted on Tuesday and hopefully that will be a chance for this week to provide a decent return and cut some of those poor losses from last week. Signs came from the likes of Juan Monaco and Tommy Robredo coming as winners in matches they would most certainly have lost last week so that was a positive for me.


The Second Round matches begin in the tournaments on the Tour on Wednesday although the hope will be that some of the poor weather expected can be avoided for long enough to see those matches played.


Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova v Kateryna Bondarenko: I haven't paid much attention to the tournament in Baku so far this week because I simply haven't seen a match that fits into my criteria. The first match that may fall in is the Second Round match between the Number 1 Seed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Kateryna Bondarenko.

It was Bondarenko who came through the First Round match in more impressive form and that has backed up her successful run in Istanbul last week. Another strong run could see Bondarenko return to the top 100 in the World Rankings as she becomes accustomed to playing at the main Tour level again.

That form definitely gives her a chance to beat Pavlyuchenkova and I can understand why the layers are taking no chances with the Bondarenko price considering how the Russian has played through 2015. This looks certain to be Pavlyuchenkova's worst performance since 2008, but the hard courts remain her best surface and I think she is capable of winning this kind of match even in her current state.

A poor season is hard to ignore, but the win in the First Round might have shown Pavlyuchenkova that she still has enough character to win close matches. I also feel the last ten days has perhaps inflated the Pavlyuchenkova price as Bondarenko has been in decent form, but she has had suffered losses to players that aren't of the quality of the Russian and this might be a three set win for the Number 1 Seed.


Juan Monaco - 4.5 games v Lucas Pouille: It was another strange topsy-turvy performance from Juan Monaco in his First Round win over Ernests Gulbis but he did get through and should be too strong for Lucas Pouille in this Second Round match.

Pouille has done very well to come through the qualifiers and win his First Round match while the youngster has also reached the Semi Final of a Challenger event on the clay courts recently. Those results will have given him some real confidence heading into this match, but the quality of opposition has increased and I think Monaco will be able to wear him down.

The problem with a spread of games like this is Monaco's tendency to throw in a poor service game or two in each set, while he can sometimes settle into the long rallies on clay and look to grind down opponents. That might be an issue against someone like Pouille who will look to be aggressive, although Monaco's clay court ability should give him enough of an edge.

It was Monaco who won the match when the pair met at the French Open in 2014 and Pouille is also someone that can sometimes fall apart when trying to play the long game that you have to on the clay. That has led to some lopsided sets against him and Monaco can win this match 64, 63.


Fabio Fognini - 2.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: It might not have been the season he would have wanted, especially on the clay courts, but Fabio Fognini had a strong win over Jeremy Chardy in the First Round. He will hope to have a much better performance when it comes to serving than he offered in the last two sets of that win, but Fognini will know what he needs to do in this match to get the win.

That might produce a better performance when it comes to serving as Fognini looks back at his 6-0 head to head record against Albert Ramos-Vinolas. Fognini can't overlook what the Spaniard can bring to the table after an impressive win over Nicolas Almagro, but Fognini has much better movement than Almagro and will make Ramos-Vinolas play many more shots.

Fognini was returning well in his match with Chardy and the Italian is going to get plenty of balls back in play to slowly wear down Ramos-Vinolas. The latter has only won two of the fourteen sets played between them and Fognini has won three matches in a row against Ramos-Vinolas without dropping a set.

If Ramos-Vinolas is serving as well as he was against Almagro then he will cause some problems for Fognini, but the latter is the better clay court player and I expect him to show that in a 63, 75 win.


Santiago Giraldo - 4.5 games v Marsel Ilhan: These two players dropped just eight games between them in their First Round wins, but it would be a surprise to me if Santiago Giraldo is not able to beat Marsel Ilhan in this Second Round match.

While Ilhan has put together some decent wins, his defeats have to be worrying in the manner he has fallen away in matches. Just looking through some of his recent defeats and you can see plenty of 60, 61 or 62 scorelines and the loss to Ernests Gulbis last week while winning just two games is nothing short of embarrassing for Ilhan when considering how Gulbis has been playing.

Now he faces an opponent who is very comfortable on the clay courts and Giraldo had an impressive win in the First Round which will give him confidence. I do think Ilhan has shown he can be a problem to deal with when he serves well, but Giraldo has the power to keep him on the back foot and should be a little too experienced.

Ilhan is never too far from a heavy defeat, but this one might be a little more respectful on the scoreboard as I expect Giraldo to win this 63, 64.


Thomaz Bellucci - 4.5 games v Stephane Robert: It was a disappointing Quarter Final defeat for Thomaz Bellucci in Bastad last week, but he has to look at the positives on his wins at that tournament. The matches under his belt should also help in Gstaad where Bellucci is one of the favourites to win the title, especially as Stan Wawrinka withdrew before the tournament began.

The Brazilian was an easy winner in the First Round and his clay court pedigree should give him a huge edge over the veteran Stephane Robert. It is something of a surprise that Robert has returned to the Tour off an injury that took away the last five months of the 2014 season, but he has shown some signs of producing some good tennis.

However, it has to be admitted that the clay courts are not usually the favourite for Robert and he should be put under pressure by Bellucci who has some power behind his groundstrokes. The backhand can be a weakness, but Bellucci can dictate behind his forehand as long as he is serving well.

I have seen Robert give some decent players more problems than his game should really produce so Bellucci would be wise not to underestimate him. However, I think the Brazilian ends up on the right side of a 63, 64 win in this one as he better performances on the clay courts pays dividends.


Adrian Mannarino - 3.5 games v Go Soeda: It was a very good week for Adrian Mannarino in Bogota last week, but he might have been a little disappointed he didn't complete it with a title. The fact he was Seeded in Atlanta means Mannarino has had a bit more time to get ready for this match, although he can't underestimate Go Soeda who had an impressive come from behind win over Alexandr Dolgopolov in the First Round.

It was a surprising loss for Dolgopolov who had been the better player in the first two sets and I think Mannarino will give Soeda more trouble simply because of his consistency. The serve of neither player will be worrying the other, but Mannarino's is a lefty serve which can be a difference maker in tight matches.

The win in the First Round was a rare occurrence for Soeda on the main Tour and he has hardly been pulling up trees in the Challenger matches he has played either. Soeda did reach the Semi Final in his sole appearance in Atlanta back in 2012, but these two players have gone in different directions in those years since.

That was also the year that Soeda and Mannarino met for the sole time on Tour as the Frenchman won in three sets. However, I think Mannarino has a slightly easier time this time around barring any fatigue that has set in from his very strong run in Bogota. If the extra day has given Mannarino time to recover physically and mentally, I would imagine this is the kind of match he wins 64, 64.

MY PICKS: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Juan Monaco - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Thomaz Bellucci - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Adrian Mannarino - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-3, + 4.38 Units (18 Units Staked, + 24.33% Yield)