Australian Open Tennis Day 14 Pick- Men's Final (February 21st)

A lot of people didn't think we would get here, but all credit has to be given to Tennis Australia for being able to put on the first Grand Slam of the 2021 season.

Others have helped, but it goes to show that authorities can manage the major sporting events that are set to take place in 2021 despite the continued havoc that Covid-19 is creating on communities around the globe. The Tennis Tour is probably one of the harder ones to manage with the tournaments that are set to be played in various countries through the course of the season, but there are positive signs that it can work, even if events have to be scheduled within one country for sustained periods.

On Saturday Naomi Osaka picked up a fourth Grand Slam title and you have to believe the world is at the feet of the 23 year old superstar. I would love to see an improvement on the clay and grass court events, but Osaka will be favourite going into any hard court tournament at the moment and she has the kind of ability that could see her win multiple more Slams through the years.

It wasn't as easy a win as the scoreboard would say with the pivotal tenth game of the first set changing the entire course of the match, but Naomi Osaka is a deserved Champion. I think Jennifer Brady will come again, although she won't enjoy the kind of draw she got in Melbourne on a regular basis in the Grand Slam events, but the Semi Final run at the US Open previously suggests the American can challenge for a Major.

Her game could be well suited to the grass courts later this year and I do think Women's Tennis is in a healthy place with a number of quality operators on the Tour already and with younger, fresher faces ready to deliver too.

The Tour will move on from Melbourne at the end of the Australian Open with a single WTA event being held in Adelaide and the ATP Tour having three events on three different continents beginning too.

There are some big names returning to main Tour level with Andy Murray back this week and Roger Federer close to his own return, while players are seemingly taking in more events than they may have in usual times. The Golden Swing in South America will begin, as will the early indoor hard court season in Europe, while the Middle East will soon have their annual big events hosting both the ATP and WTA Tour.

Before all that we have to decide the first Grand Slam of the season for the men and it looks about as good a Final as anyone could have hoped for.

Novak Djokovic will likely go in as a narrow favourite, but Daniil Medvedev may be playing as the best player in the world right now and this is a fascinating Final for us to look forward to.

My thoughts on that are below.

Novak Djokovic-Daniil Medvedev over 39.5 games: The eight time Australian Open Champion taking on arguably the hottest player on the ATP Tour looking for a first Grand Slam title anywhere is a perfect way to sign off at the Australian Open in 2021. The layers are not taking any chances with the odds with very little separating World Number 1 Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev in the markets.

There has never been much between the players in previous meetings with Novak Djokovic leading the head to head 4-3, but Daniil Medvedev having the confidence of winning three of the last four between them. That includes a very comfortable straight sets win at the ATP Finals which were won by Medvedev and the Russian player has heaped the pressure on Novak Djokovic ahead of the Final with his belief that the sense of expectation could weigh heavily on his opponent's shoulders.

A strong Semi Final win suggests Novak Djokovic is not suffering with any injury issues that have lingered from the Third Round win over Taylor Fritz, although I do think that is factoring into the price for the match. Picking a winner is not going to easy considering the form that Daniil Medvedev has been showing since the Paris Masters and I think the layers have got things right with the pick 'em prices being used.

This is a court that Novak Djokovic has loved playing on through his career, but Daniil Medvedev is well suited to the conditions and the only feeling I really have is that this is going to be a long match.

The World Number 1 has not looked his best in this tournament, but Novak Djokovic is coming off arguably his best performance at the Australian Open. It will offer encouragement, but the numbers definitely lean towards Daniil Medvedev's performances not only here in this event, but in Australia over the last month.

Both have been serving well, but it is the Medvedev return of serve which has really impressed the most and I think that could be crucial on the day.

Nothing will be handed to him, but in the last three matches between these players on the hard courts the numbers do slightly lean towards Daniil Medvedev. In those matches it is the Russian who has earned more break points than Novak Djokovic in two of the three, while the other saw them both produce eleven break points on the day, and I do think there are plenty of signs that suggest that we will have a new Grand Slam Champion.

Novak Djokovic did beat Daniil Medvedev in Australia at the ATP Cup last year, but that was another close match and I do think we are going to see at least four sets played in this Final.

With the returning ability of both players it would perhaps not be a major surprise if the total games line is a touch too high, especially as Djokovic has only held 76% of his service games against Medvedev in the last three hard court matches between them. At the same time Daniil Medvedev has held 84% of his own service games so he could be very difficult to peg back if getting in front, but it looks like a match that will come down to the fine margins.

Previous matches have suggested that this could be a match that needs five sets to cover the total line with the way both have been able to return. That is something that is something that is on the mind, but the conditions are pretty quick in Melbourne, even under the lights, and it may mean there has to be at least one tie-breaker played and that will put the match well on the way to covering this line as long as it goes four sets.

I think it is going to be an exceptional Final with the experience with Novak Djokovic, although I expect Daniil Medvedev to have learned a lot from his defeat to Rafael Nadal in the 2019 US Open Final when he came from 2-0 down to almost pull off the comeback.

There are likely to be twists and turns throughout the Final, but I think it will be tight and competitive and we can see the two players produce enough games to surpass this total games line set.

MY PICK: Novak Djokovic-Daniil Medvedev Over 39.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open 2021: 47-43, - 3.78 Units (180 Units Staked, - 2.10% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (April 27th)

The 2019 season has been a really good one for the Tennis Picks, but I think Friday 26th April is comfortably the worst day I have had during over the course of the first four months of the year.

My selections went 1-4 on the day, but it was a highly frustrating one with both Kei Nishikori and Petra Kvitova having no right to not cover in the wins they earned. The former missed a shedload of break points in the early stages of the second set and could easily have taken it 6-1 or 6-2 with some better composure, while the latter was on the brink of a cover despite losing the first four games of the match. That all went up in smoke when Petra Kvitova failed to hold serve one more time when leading 4-2 in the final set and both players missed the cover by half a game.

Matteo Berrettini's win over Pablo Cuevas also failed to cover the number as he decided to take the second set off which was dropped 6-1 and then missed multiple break points which would have earned the cover in the final set.

The only selection I was actually disappointed in was Guido Pella who was outplayed by Dominic Thiem, but with that in mind I had no right going 1-4 on the day.

On Saturday we are into the Semi Final matches at the tournaments being played this week and you can read my selections below.


Kei Nishikori v Daniil Medvedev: This is a fascinating Semi Final and one that is going to tell us a lot about Daniil Medvedev and whether he really has turned a corner on the clay courts like his results over the last two weeks are suggesting. Prior to the 2019 season, Medvedev had struggled to impose himself on opponents on the clay courts, but he has won some big matches already this year which is perhaps further evidence of the overall improvement the young Russian has made over the last twelve months.

The victories over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Novak Djokovic stand out and adding Kei Nishikori to that list would be really impressive. So far this week Medvedev has barely been tested as he has made comfortable progression through the draw into this Semi Final, and his numbers have remained impressive.

Daniil Medvedev is continuing to serve very well, but he is backing it up with some impressive returning which is making him a real threat on the surface. Last week he was beaten surprisingly by Dusan Lajovic considering the wins Medvedev had earned on the court in Monte Carlo prior to that and I do think Kei Nishikori is very comfortable on this surface and is playing well enough this week to win this pick 'em contest.

The Japanese star has yet to drop a set this week in Barcelona where he is a former Champion, but this is an opponent who is playing at a higher level than the previous ones he has faced.

However Kei Nishikori will be feeling very confident from the fact he has held 93% of his service games, although I do think that number is going to be given a severe examination by the Medvedev return game. Both players will be confident in their return game as Nishikori comes into this match having won 44% of return points this week and only a poor performance on the break points in the last Round prevented him from having a better number than the 37% of return games in which he has broken serve.

These two players have met three times in a little over twelve months and in that time it is Nishikori who has had the edge with two wins to one for Medvedev. In those matches Nishikori has had the slightly superior service numbers which have proven to be a difference maker, while Nishikori also dominated their one clay court match in the Monte Carlo Masters in early April 2018.

I can't deny it feels like Medvedev has improved on the clay in the time since that last match, but Kei Nishikori is one of the best players on the Tour on the surface and I will back him to edge to a win.

MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-4, - 4.74 Units (12 Units Staked, - 39.50% Yield)