Entering the First Round of the PlayOffs will feel like entering a new season for the sixteen teams still dreaming of a NBA Championship. There is a tough path to tread between now and picking up the Championship and the early Series is all about making sure you can progress with the least amount of energy expended.
Bad things can happen if you are asking players to go out and play unnecessary minutes and that is something the top teams will want to avoid.
I am going to split the Series as I have in previous years and the best way to do that is using one thread for the opening four games of each Series, but then making another for any Series that need five, six or even seven games to be decided.
NBA PlayOffs First Round Games 1-4
Saturday 15th April
Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 1 Pick: The opening First Round Game 1 in the NBA PlayOffs in 2023 comes from the Eastern Conference when the Number 3 Seeded Philadelphia 76ers take on the Number 6 Seeded Brooklyn Nets.
It has felt like the top three teams in the Eastern Conference have a considerable edge over the rest and that has contributed to what is a very wide line to open this First Round Series.
While the Philadelphia 76ers have been settled, especially compared with twelve months ago, the Brooklyn Nets have perhaps overachieved to finish inside the top six in the Conference. After trading both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant to the Western Conference, the Nets look to have been left with an unbalanced roster, but that has not stopped them doing just enough to finish above the Miami Heat for an automatic place in the First Round of the post-season.
I am not going to place much stock in the 76ers win over the Nets in their final regular season game, but I can't ignore the fact that the higher Seed have swept all four regular season meetings between these teams. A couple of those wins were before the Nets decided to hit the reset button on their 'Big Three' project and I think it is going to be a big challenge for Brooklyn this Series past five games.
Now that Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are suited up for other teams, Brooklyn's Offensive unit have been a touch inconsistent, although the Nets did find wins in six of their last nine games.
However, this is a team that is very much reliant on the three point shooting and they will be hoping that they can find enough hot stretches from the distance that will help the Brooklyn Nets to be very competitive. Brooklyn may do well to find a game plan that looks to attack the 76ers inside the arc too, but this is not something they are comfortable with and I do think that could allow the home team to pull away in Game 1 of this Series.
The balance of the Philadelphia 76ers Offensive approach makes them very dangerous for a Defense like the one the Nets have and I think that will be highlighted in this one.
Brooklyn do have a 4-1 record against the spread in their last five here and they are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine road games overall.
That has to be respected, but the Nets are facing a very strong home team in Game 1 and since 2014, teams favoured by at least 8.5 points have covered in 60% of games played. So while the line feels like a big one for a PlayOff Game, I do think the Nets could just struggle against an experienced Philadelphia team that will want to make a statement in what they hope will be a deep PlayOff run.
Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics Game 1 Pick: Some of those talking about Basketball in the media have suggested that the two teams coming through the Play In Tournament in the Eastern Conference are going to be blown away by the top two Seeds waiting for them. The Atlanta Hawks upset the Miami Heat in the first of the Play In Tournament games to steal away the Number 7 Seed, but that means having to face the defending Eastern Conference Champions.
The Boston Celtics beat the Atlanta Hawks in all three games played in the regular season and have had far too much Offensive power for the lower Seeded team.
Of course there has to be a huge amount of respect for the Offensive Basketball being played by the Atlanta Hawks, but the Boston Defense is one of the better ones in the NBA, while their own Offensive unit is capable of putting up some huge numbers as the Hawks will know.
Reports that the Hawks are going to be changing the roster in the off-season was not a distraction in the win over Miami on the road earlier this week, but it remains an issue for Quin Snyder and the players. Trae Young has been the main focus of the reports, but the All Star has shown his worth to the Hawks time after time and moving him on will be something the fans would voice their discontent about.
They will need Trae Young to be at his best if the Hawks are going to earn the upset, but it feels like a Series that will be under the control of the Boston Celtics. The Celtics are the superior three point shooting team and they have a really strong balance inside and outside of the arc that forces team to 'pick their poison'.
Of course three point shooting teams can find it difficult to find their rhythm if those shots are not being drained early and often, but the Boston Celtics can find other ways to get to the basket and the Hawks have struggled Defensively for much of the season.
I think it would be foolish to ignore the fact that this is a big spread for a PlayOff Series between two high-octane scoring teams.
However, I do think the Boston Celtics are capable of hitting enough three pointers to put the Hawks under pressure to keep up and that can see the home team secure a 1-0 lead behind a big win.
Atlanta have not covered in any of their last four visits to the Boston Celtics, while they are 0-6 against the spread in their last six against a team that has won at least 60% of games played.
Boston are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven at home, while they are 19-8-1 against the spread in their last twenty-eight First Round PlayOff Games. I am looking for the home team to find their open three point shooters and use that to wear down the Hawks and eventually secure a double digit win in this opening game.
New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 1 Pick: Two years ago there was an excitement about the New York Knicks as they ended a long wait to return to the PlayOffs and secured a top four Seed in the Eastern Conference. However, they disappointed in the Series with the Atlanta Hawks and seemed to revert to type twelve months ago.
The signing of Jalen Brunson has been a huge boost for the Knicks and they are back in the First Round, this time as the Number 5 Seed, and they will be the underdog against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Lean years had become the norm for the Cavaliers, but they have put together a quality young roster since LeBron James left for a second time, although the big move was made last year. In the off-season, the Cavaliers seemingly edge out the New York Knicks in trading for Donovan Mitchell from the Utah Jazz and he has given the entire a jolt of experience and talent which has guided the Cavaliers all season.
New York have the mental edge having won three of the four regular season games between the teams, but two games played in this Arena were split.
However, the Knicks are a little banged up heading into the post-season, which has lessened some of the enthusiasm of the fans when it comes to the upset. Jalen Brunson is expected to suit up, but Julius Randle could potentially miss both road games in Cleveland and possibly even Game 3 at Madison Square Garden and this is a big blow for the Number 5 Seed.
Both teams are well balanced Offensively and neither is really the best Defensive team out there, while Cleveland will believe home advantage can see them narrowly edge past this opponent.
I do think the games are going to be competitive and may just come down to one or two players picking up a hot streak in the Fourth Quarter to make the difference.
A colder shooting day is more problematic for the Cleveland Cavaliers with the Knicks expected to have the edge on the boards and I do think that will help New York as they look to steal away home court advantage over the next few days.
This is not a big spread, but home favourites of less than 7.5 points are 18-20 against the spread in Game 1 of the First Round Series and I do think the New York Knicks can keep this competitive. New York have also been strong on the road and have a 9-4-1 record against the spread in their last fourteen game when facing an opponent with a winning record.
The Cavaliers are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven at home and I think the points can be taken with the underdog.
Sunday 16th April
Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies Game 1 Pick: It looked like the Los Angeles Lakers were going to have to produce a win from a second Play In Tournament game to earn a spot in the PlayOffs, but a late rally and an Overtime win over the Minnesota Timberwolves helped them avoid that situation. Instead they secured the Number 7 Seed in the Western Conference and there are plenty out there who believe they have the talent and the momentum to upset the Number 2 Seeded Memphis Grizzlies.
Only one of the previous Number 7 Seeds has entered the First Round of the PlayOffs and won Game 1 so there is a big challenge in front of the Lakers, despite the strong end to the season and the veteran experience of Anthony Davis and LeBron James on the roster.
Both will have appreciated the extra time to rest before the First Round of the PlayOffs after the win over the Timberwolves, but Davis and James will need support from their new look team if they are going to take down a team like the Memphis Grizzlies, who have genuine ambitions of winning the NBA Championship.
I have no doubt that the Grizzlies are going to come out ready to compete having heard a number of the talking heads mentioning a potential upset in the Series. Memphis have a chance to make an early statement not only to the critics, but to the Lakers and the rest of the Western Conference that their Number 2 Seed is not a fluke or a team that has overachieved.
The Grizzlies would have targeted the Number 1 Seed before a ball had been tipped this season so may actually believe they have underachieved by finishing with the Number 2 Seed.
In saying that, you have to accept that the Lakers are dangerous- the team is very good at hitting their three pointers when they find a rhythm and there are some holes in this Memphis Defensive unit that can be exploited. Any team that has LeBron James and Anthony Davis are going to be a threat, but the Grizzlies have a high-octane Offensive unit of their own and this feels like it will be a fun Series for the neutral at the very least.
And for all the improvements made by the Lakers in the second half of the season when solid trades were executed, they do have an 8-17 record against the spread when playing on the road against a team with a winning record.
Memphis won the sole regular season game played between these teams here at the end of February and they were a much bigger favourite that day. It was a game missed by LeBron James and it is hard to look past the talented veteran and know what he can do in the PlayOffs, but this feels like a spread that is designed to tempt in the underdog backers.
Small home favourites have not played well in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs over the last decade and they have become a money pit for backers.
However, I think the Grizzlies will be fired up after hearing all they have about the Lakers over the past week and they are at home where they have a 6-2 record against the spread in their last eight against the Los Angeles Lakers.
There could be swings and momentums within the game considering how well the Lakers have been shooting the ball, but I think Memphis will play hard and make a point in this one.
Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 1 Pick: There will be a number of Chicago Bulls players avoiding all television this weekend so they are not reminded of what may have been- they looked on course for a spot in the First Round of the PlayOffs, but allowed the Miami Heat to rally very late on in the final Play In Tournament game.
Now the dangerous Heat will enter the PlayOffs as the Number 8 Seed and they may have been the team that the Milwaukee Bucks most wanted to avoid out of the four that competed in the Play In Tournament. These teams split four regular season games and the last eight between these Eastern Conference rivals have all been won by the home team.
It is going to be home advantage for the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 1 of this First Round Series, but they won't be overlooking a Heat team that beat them in five games when the NBA PlayOffs were played in the bubble in 2020. Of course the Bucks earned revenge with a First Round sweep of the Miami Heat in 2021, but fans will also remember they needed Overtime to win Game 1 before the Series swung their way.
The 2023 Milwaukee Bucks look even stronger and there is a depth here that will be very difficult for the Miami Heat to deal with. The momentum of the Play In Tournament win will help the Heat, but they will also know they need to be considerably stronger at both ends of the court compared with the levels shown in the games with the Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls.
Rhythm is on the side of the Heat who have played two very competitive games at a time when the Milwaukee Bucks have been resting having also restricted minutes for key players at the end of the regular season. Sometimes that feels like an easy excuse to make though so the Number 1 Seed cannot allow that to be a distraction as they look to take a grip of this Series over the next few days.
There are a couple of key players Questionable to suit up on Sunday, but I would be very surprised if Giannis Antetokounmpo is sitting out for the Milwaukee Bucks. Kyle Lowry and Gabe Vincent are perhaps a touch more doubtful having put in as much as they did to help the Heat through the Play In Tournament while carrying issues.
One or two signs that the Miami Heat were turning things around Defensively will be encouraging for the Heat fans, but this is a Number 1 Seed with an incredibly balanced Offensive unit. I do think it will be difficult to contain the Milwaukee Bucks throughout the PlayOffs and Miami will need to find their own strong shooting to keep up with the hosts.
Big favourites did their job in the Eastern Conference First Round Series that began on Saturday and I do think the Milwaukee Bucks can do the same against a Miami team that invested plenty to simply make the PlayOffs.
Favourites of 8.5 points or more have covered in 60% of First Round games played and both the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers added to the positive side of the ledger. While this feels like a tougher game for the Milwaukee Bucks, I think they will come out looking to make a positive statement too and they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five at home against the Heat.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Game 1 Pick: This is a tough First Round Series for the Denver Nuggets, but you have to favour the Number 1 Seed when they take on the Minnesota Timberwolves. Home court has been huge for the Nuggets and teams are likely going to have to win twice here to knock them out of the post-season, but that is going to be an extreme test for every other team in the West.
The teams split four teams in the regular season with all of those taken by the home team.
You do have to respect the Timberwolves for coming through the Play In Tournament despite an awful final day of the regular season. The team look to have rallied together, but they are facing a balanced Denver Offensive unit and the Timberwolves have struggle in the two games played in Denver.
Like many of these games, a hot three point shooting team will be tough to overcome, especially with a spread of this size.
The Timberwolves had covered in six games in a row against the Nuggets, but were blown out in their last meeting here in February. Karl-Anthony Towns is back and gives Minnesota a huge boost, and that has to be given plenty of respect, but I do think the Nuggets will be ready and they will have a point to prove after losing in five games to the Golden State Warriors last year.
The season before saw Denver swept aside in the Conference Semi Finals, but this team looks healthier and I think they can begin with a big home win.
Monday 17th April
Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 2 Pick: Double teaming Joel Embiid is a solid enough game plan for any opponent the Philadelphia 76ers are going to face, but it is one that can be problematic if the 76ers are shooting very well from the field. That was the case in Game 1 of this First Round Series as Philadelphia blew out the Brooklyn Nets thanks to a heavy dose of three point shooting and the Nets are going to have to make serious adjustments in this one.
The question is whether those adjustments are going to make much of a difference.
They could choose to allow Joel Embiid to earn his points and try and close down the other players on the team, but you also have to wonder if the Philadelphia 76ers can hit close to 50% from the three point range for a second game in a row. That seems unlikely, but the Nets have to at least challenge those shooters by getting closer to them than they did in Game 1 when the 76ers managed to nail twenty-one shots from outside of the three point arc.
The number of three pointers both attempted and made was higher than the season average for the 76ers, but they showed plenty of balance with the points shared by the roster and that is going to be tough for the Brooklyn Defensive unit. Even if they choose to move away from guarding Joel Embiid as they did in Game 1, the Nets have to make sure they can secure a few more boards which will prevent the 76ers from securing as many second chance points as they did in the big win.
In the main the Brooklyn Nets have to be happy with what they produced Offensively with some solid numbers from the field and from three point range. The key will be to try and force the 76ers into a one and done situation on the Defensive side of the court, while the Nets will be looking to get closer in terms of the number of shots taken in this game as they look to level things up before retuning home.
There is no doubt that this is a big spread, especially as the line has moved slightly wider than Game 1 of this Series, but I think the 76ers can underline their superiority. The Nets have the Offensive unit that can keep any game close, but I am not sure they can do enough Defensively to contain the 76ers.
Teams playing at home after a win have been a solid team to back in the First Round of the PlayOffs, while the expectation that a team coming in off a blowout loss will have a bounce back effort has not played out in the NBA First Round. Since 2016, Game 1 winners at home have a strong record of covering the spread in Game 2 so there is enough reason to believe the Philadelphia 76ers can produce another dominant win in this one.
Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings Game 2 Pick: A back and forth game ended with the Sacramento Kings marking their return to the PlayOffs by beating the defending Champions to take a 1-0 lead in this First Round Series. You can see that the layers are not quite sure what to make of the Kings and they are concerned about opposing the Golden State Warriors in this Series with the defending Champions set as a narrow favourite in Game 2.
It was a really close game to open the Series and the Kings were able to do just enough against the three point shooters of the Warriors to secure the win. Way more than half of the shots taken by the Warriors came from the distance and they are a team that will live and die by their ability to knock down those three pointers.
I do expect Steve Kerr to make some adjustments to try and change the look for his Offensive unit and there may be more opportunities to get into the paint if the Kings are edging out to close those on the perimeter. That in turn should be able to open things up a little more for the Golden State shooters as they look to level the Series before making the short trip home for two games.
The Kings do not have the same experience as the Warriors when it comes to PlayOff Basketball, but they have to be commended for holding themselves together after rallying in the second half. An efficient day from the three point arc helped the Kings just fend off the Warriors deep into the Fourth Quarter, although the edge on the boards would be lessened if Golden State are a touch more effective at shooting from range.
There was also a Free Throw edge for the Sacramento Kings in Game 1 and that could change if the Warriors are trying to make a few more shots by driving at the basket.
This is a Series that could easily go six or seven games, but the feeling is that much is going to be decided by how efficient Golden State are when it comes to their three point shooting. They made 32% of those shots in Game 1, but that is below the season average of 38% and that slight improvement should give the Warriors the edge.
Teams bouncing back from narrow losses have been very good in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs in recent years. Losses of 3 points or fewer have seen the defeated team bounce back with a 20-4-2 record against the spread as long as they are not favoured or dogged by 5 or more points, which is the case in Game 2 of this First Round Series.
I think the Golden State Warriors will be able to keep the momentum behind that trend and I do think they can win here to level the Series before two games back in San Francisco.
Tuesday 18th April
Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics Game 2 Pick: There was a consensus amongst fans and pundits that the top three teams in the Eastern Conference were going to be far too strong for their opponents in the First Round of the PlayOffs. It was a surprise to see the Milwaukee Bucks slip to a defeat in Game 1 to the Miami Heat, but the Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics earned big home wins and the latter are looking to take a chokehold of this Series by holding serve at home again.
The spread has moved even further in favour of the Boston Celtics as they host the Atlanta Hawks in Game 2 after beating them by 13 points in Game 1. The final score feels close, but Boston were leading by 30 points at half time before coming off the boil and that means they come into the second game of the Series with room for improvement.
That can only be a good thing for the Celtics as they look to remain focused before heading to the Atlanta Hawks for Games 3 and 4. The Hawks came through the Play In Tournament in an upset win over the Miami Heat, but they struggled in all aspects of their Basketball in the first half of Game 1 and can ill-afford to make another slow start.
A real problem for the Hawks was the really poor three point shooting day and the concern is that this is a trend rather than a cold night on the court. The Hawks have averaged below 29% from the three point range in recent games, although I would expect them to have more than five converted shots from that distance in this one.
Even with that likely improvement, Atlanta fans will be well aware that their team needs to find a way to close down the Boston shooters who were able to do what they liked in the first half to create an insurmountable lead. The second half adjustments will be encouraging for the Hawks, but there is also a feeling that the Celtics lost their focus and that played as much a part as any improved levels from the road team.
It would also be a surprise if Boston are able to have the big advantage on the boards as they did in Game 1, although the Celtics are the superior team and should come out with plenty of energy after the second half performance over the weekend.
The total line looks on the high side again and I would not be surprised if this is another game in this Series that finishes below the number set.
However, my play is going to be to back Boston to cover the big line for a second time in the Series despite the strong Offensive play the Atlanta Hawks are able to put together. As mentioned in my Philadelphia selection in Game 2, opening game home winners have covered at a very strong rate in Game 2 in the First Round of the PlayOffs, while teams coming in off a double digit loss have not been able to make the adjustments to turn the tables with a poor record against the spread in the next game over the last decade.
Make no mistake about the size of the spread, but the Celtics have the qualities to cover for a second time against the Atlanta Hawks in the First Round.
New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 2 Pick: It had been over twenty years since the Cleveland Cavaliers last played a PlayOff game without LeBron James on the roster, but it was not a memorable day for the team who have slipped into a 0-1 deficit in this First Round Series.
The New York Knicks will have been incredibly grateful to Josh Hart and his double-double off the bench, but Hart was banged up late and there is every chance that he is not going to be able to suit up here. That would be a major blow for the Knicks as they look to take another game on the road, while it could also see the team just exhale having achieved what they have wanted to do from the first two games by taking home court away from the Cavaliers.
Of course there is no doubt that the New York Knicks will want to put their foot on the gas if possible and they do have the momentum against his opponent that they will want to maintain.
It was an incredibly close Game 1 and it was the Knicks power on the glass that ended up being a big difference between them. However, losing Josh Hart may impact the ability of the Knicks to do that again and the edge may swing back in favour of the Cleveland Cavaliers, who had a weaker shooting day than would be expected from them.
I think the Cavaliers will bounce back in Game 2 and they should look after the ball a little better having had one more turnover than the New York Knicks when the Series began.
This should be another competitive game just as it has been whenever the Knicks and the Cavaliers have met this season, but Cleveland have generally been strong at home and I do think they can make one or two adjustments that just turns this game in their favour.
New York do have a very good recent record against the Cleveland Cavaliers, but I will stick with the Game 2 hosts to cover in this one and level this Series.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Phoenix Suns Game 2 Pick: The home teams have been in dominant form in recent years both straight up and against the spread when it comes to Game 2 of the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs. Two teams continued that run on Monday and I do think the three home teams on Tuesday are all in a position where they can win and cover.
After stealing away home court from the Phoenix Suns, the Los Angeles Clippers would love to double down and secure another big win on the road before returning to the City of Angels.
However, I do think the Suns will rally as a pretty significant home favourite and there could be a slight drop off from the Clippers after winning Game 1.
It should be pointed out that the Clippers have won on their last three visits to Phoenix and the road team has won all five games played between the teams this season.
In saying that, it should also be noted that the Clippers were the road underdog after the previous four games were all set with the home team as the dog.
Russell Westbrook cannot be as bad Offensively as he was in the winning effort in Game 1, but I also think the Suns will be improved with the adjustments to be made. Kevin Durant has experienced a loss with Phoenix for the first time, but he can help the team bounce back and keep the home momentum going.
The Suns have not played that well following a straight up loss with a 2-6 record against the spread in their last eight in that position, but the Clippers have followed a win with a 2-6 record against the spread in their next game too.
The bench players did the job for the Clippers in Game 1 and a slight turn in that should see the Suns level up this Series.
Wednesday 19th April
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Pick: There are three games listed for Wednesday in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs, but the first two are very difficult to call.
The Memphis Grizzlies and Milwaukee Bucks have both lost Game 1 as the higher Seed and need to recover, but injuries to key players make them very hard to predict and both road teams have to feel they can take a firm grip of the Series.
I do like the Denver Nuggets to make it 2-0 in this First Round Series against the Minnesota Timberwolves having blown them out in Game 1 and being set as a similar sized favourite in their fortress at home in Game 2. The Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference had a pretty average end to the regular season, but they were resting key players and Denver will be very keen to make sure they win this Series as soon as possible to make sure key performers are rested for the Conference Semi Final.
Rudy Gobert is Questionable for the road team and Nikola Jokic is also Questionable, but I think both have had time to recover between games and are expected to suit up.
It was a very tough day all around for the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1 and they are expected to make one or two adjustments to show improvement. The surprise would be if the Timberwolves struggle to just 80 points again, but even with that improvement I am not sure they will be able to stay with the Denver Nuggets if they cannot find a way to grab a few more boards.
This is the second visit in a row to Denver where the Timberwolves have been blown out and I do think this is a bad match up for them.
Teams coming in off a blowout loss have struggled in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs and we have seen that already this season with Brooklyn and Atlanta blown out twice in a row. Home teams have also been very strong against the spread in Game 2 of the First Round over the last couple of years and that has been a trend that has also been evident this season and I do think the Nuggets will have enough to win by double digits again.
I am not anticipating another win by almost 30 points, but I do think the Denver Nuggets will be able to cover this spread as they move into a commanding position before heading on the road for Game 3 and Game 4.
Thursday 20th April
Philadelphia 76ers @ Brooklyn Nets Game 3 Pick: This felt like it would be a tough First Round Series for the Brooklyn Nets who have perhaps overachieved by finishing in the top six places in the Eastern Conference. Before the season began it may have seemed impossible for the Brooklyn Nets and their roster to finish outside of the automatic First Round PlayOff places, but the trades of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are really being felt now.
They were better in Game 2 than they were in Game 1, but that doesn't really mean a lot for the Brooklyn Nets who are under pressure to 'hold serve' in the two games to be played at home.
A 0-2 hole is going to be tough to overcome against a Philadelphia 76ers team that have regularly dominated the First Round Series in the PlayOffs. In fact they are taking aim at a 3-0 lead in the First Round for the third season in succession and they will be arriving in Brooklyn with a lot of confidence after winning the first two games in the Series without too many issues.
Philadelphia's three point shooting was not as strong in Game 2 as it was in Game 1, but they were able to dominate the boards and that is an edge that is unlikely to change, even in a road game. Joel Embiid might still be getting double teamed, but he is making all of the right plays in finding his team-mates and Defensively the 76ers are playing with enough intensity to shut down the Brooklyn shooters.
The home team will feel their players can perform with more freedom at home and Brooklyn are a team that will take plenty of three pointers- this does mean a hot shooting day will see them have every chance of earning the upset, but the 76ers have played the three ball effectively all season and they were able to close on those shooters in the second half of Game 2 to restrict the Nets to thirteen shots made from the distance again.
There was once an effective trend of backing a team 0-2 down to cover the spread at Half Time of Game 3 with the added intensity they are expected to bring onto the court to try and get back into a Series. The layers have gotten on top of that, but they may be underestimating the Philadelphia 76ers when it comes to covering in Game 3 as the road favourite.
Brooklyn might be returning home, but they are playing after another blowout defeat, which have been the kind of defeats that have been very difficult to bounce back from in the First Round of the post-season.
Home teams playing off a loss have not been a good at returning at the window, while in recent seasons the lower Seeds have struggled to cover in Game 3 in the First Round.
Some might feel a home underdog deserves respect, but those being given at least 4.5 points are on a run of just 5-10-1 against the spread in Game 3 of the First Round and that perhaps underlines the difference in quality of the teams playing in the opening Round of the PlayOffs.
The Nets have lost their last three home games against the Philadelphia 76ers and I think Joel Embiid and company are going to be too strong for Brooklyn for a third time this week.
Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors Game 3 Pick: Another close game ended in another defeat for the defending Champions and the Golden State Warriors find themselves in an extremely unfamiliar position in a PlayOff Series. A 0-2 deficit is not one to panic over, but the Warriors are under pressure to hold court twice and they are going to be without one of their key players from recent years.
Draymond Green was ejected in Game 2 for stepping on Domantas Sabonis and that has left the latter Questionable for this game, while Green has been given a one game suspension. This is only the second time that Green has been suspended for a post-season game and his own 'excitement' about the unfamiliar position the Warriors find themselves in will have turned to disappointment as he sits out a pivotal game in the Series.
The Sacramento Kings will be very happy with how their return to PlayOff Basketball has gone and the young players are growing in each passing game. Beating the defending Champions will be a huge boost in confidence for the Kings, but they will also know that they cannot leave the door open to the Golden State Warriors and an experienced team that can get very hot from the field over a run of games in the PlayOffs.
Head Coach Mike Brown has spent plenty of time with the Warriors as an Assistant to Steve Kerr so he will be very familiar with the talent Golden State possess.
He actually had to Coach the Warriors in the PlayOffs last season when Kerr was forced to miss the game as he dealt with Covid so Mike Brown will be a calm voice in the Kings locker room and remind the players that they still have a lot to do if they are going to win two more games and earn a spot in the Western Conference Semi Finals.
Mike Brown has made it clear that his team have done really well to hold the Golden State Warriors from a Defensive standpoint, but the Kings have a much respected Offensive unit that have yet to really display the consistency the Head Coach would have expected. That is a major improvement that has yet to come from the Sacramento Kings and I do think the absence of Draymond Green may just open things up.
Golden State have been much better at home all season, and they were able to penetrate and score plenty of points inside the paint in Game 2, but they are a team that will live and die by the three point shot. It has been an area of struggle in the first two games, but home comforts should see an improvement from the defending Champions.
Even so, I also expect the Kings to be stronger Offensively and I do think this is a lot of points to be giving to the road underdog, especially with Green sitting out.
Home teams in Game 3 of the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs have struggled in recent seasons and especially those coming in off a loss like the Warriors.
In general teams playing at home after a loss in the First Round have struggled to perform effectively against the spread and even a slight improvement from the Kings Offensively should ensure they are able to keep this one close.
Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Clippers Game 3 Pick: These teams will already feel pretty familiar with one another and this is actually the fourth game in a row between the Phoenix Suns and the Los Angeles Clippers. They played on the last day of the regular season and they have split the first two games of this First Round PlayOff Series, but all of those have taken place in Arizona and the Series now shifts to the City of Angels.
The Clippers will feel they have done what they needed to do over the first two games by taking home court away from the Suns, but Phoenix may feel the momentum is behind them having rallied late in the Fourth Quarter to take Game 2.
Chris Paul was slightly banged up having produced some big buckets for the Suns to aid Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, but he has been cleared and is expected to suit up as the Series shifts to Los Angeles.
Russell Westbrook had a much better Game 2 than Game 1, but the Clippers will have to make some Defensive adjustments to prevent the Phoenix Suns hitting 59% from the field again. The stronger shooting also saw the Suns change the narrative of being battered on the boards and they actually pulled down more rebounds than the Clippers in Game 2, while Phoenix will also look to get into attack mode and try and get to the Free Throw line.
Both teams have shown they can make adjustments and both have their top performers looking comfortable on the court, while the relative lack of rest time between Game 2 and Game 3 might work to the rhythm of the Offensive players.
Neither team has been playing as well as they would have liked Defensively and I do think there is more of a challenge for the Los Angeles Clippers than the Phoenix Suns to make adjustments on that side of the court. In both games the Suns have managed to hit their shots pretty comfortably, which puts more pressure on the Clippers on the Offensive side of the court, while the Clippers ended the season showing a few more vulnerabilities Defensively than the Suns too.
Los Angeles have had the edge with the three point shooting in both games and I do think that is going to be very important for them throughout this Series as they look to progress without Paul George.
Missing his shooting is a blow for the Clippers who have not been able to keep George and Kahwi Leonard on the court together, which has prevented them from having the kind of PlayOff run they would have envisioned when signing both.
I think that will show up and Game 3 looks an opportunity for the Phoenix Suns to re-take home court in the Series.
As I have mentioned, home teams in Game 3 have not had a great recent record in the First Round of the PlayOffs and especially coming in off a loss so the momentum is with the Phoenix Suns.
This is a small spread and home teams in Game 3 who are favoured or set as an underdog between the 4 point lines are on a 4-16-1 run against the spread and I do think the Suns are the better team of the two, especially at their current healths. With the momentum behind them, I am looking for the Phoenix Suns to get in front in the Series and ensure they have home court back behind them at the very least when they leave Los Angeles.
Friday 21st April
Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks Game 3 Pick: Two big home wins have put the Boston Celtics in a commanding position in this First Round Series, but they will be trying to avoid any pressure by taking at least one of the next two games to be played on the road. There is still a feeling that Boston have room to improve, but they have been more than good enough to handle the Atlanta Hawks so far in this Series and it is up to the lower Seed to make the adjustments to make this a competitive First Round match up.
The Hawks know they need more from Trae Young if they are going to beat a Boston team that has two top scoring options and have seen Derrick White step up to make a third option for the team.
Young himself has admitted that he has made too many mistakes in the first two games, but he also expects himself to be better in familiar home surroundings. The fans will get behind the team, but there is a bubbling feeling underneath the surface that Trae Young will be traded in the off-season having been reported to be unhappy in Atlanta and that could come to the surface for those in the stands if Atlanta struggle again.
Atlanta have not been scoring well enough, but they have really struggled on the Defensive side of the court with the Boston Celtics scoring at least 112 points in both home games. The shooting was actually more efficient in Game 2 compared with Game 1 and this poses a big problem for the Hawks who have allowed teams to largely have their way with them throughout the course of the season.
Being in a 0-2 hole should mean a big effort is coming from the home team as we have seen from the Brooklyn Nets and Golden State Warriors- however, the Nets struggled to maintain their efforts and I think this is a game that is more likely to move in that direction than the Warriors one.
Once again, road favourites of at least 4.5 points have performed very well in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs and teams returning home in Game 3 after a loss are now 6-15 against the spread. Blow out losses have seen the momentum move against the team on the wrong end of a double digit defeat and I do think the Boston Celtics are going to be focused to try and move through as soon as possible knowing the Philadelphia 76ers are at 3-0 and looking like they will be waiting in the Eastern Conference Semi Final.
I expect Atlanta to show more fight at home, but the Celtics have dominated this team throughout the season and every win has been by at least six points.
Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 3 Pick: Outside of the Third Quarter in Game 2 when the Minnesota Timberwolves outscored the Denver Nuggets by 17 points to take the lead going into the Fourth Quarter, the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference has dominated the opening two games of this First Round Series.
It is going to take something pretty special from the Timberwolves to turn the Series around, but they are at home for two games and will be using the crowd to fire themselves up. The Nuggets will almost certainly be expecting to be hit early, but Denver have scored more points than Minnesota in six of the eight Quarters played and they look like a team on a mission to move through to the Conference Semi Finals without being pushed too hard.
You cannot ignore the fact that Denver have been a lot better at home than they have been on the road and they have lost both regular season visits to Minnesota. That should keep the Nuggets focused as they look to take a firm grip of this Series over the weekend, while the Timberwolves will be looking to find a way to slow down the Denver shooters.
There is no doubt that the Nuggets are a touch more vulnerable on the road, but you do have a feeling that the Minnesota issues to close out the regular season before the Play In Tournament are catching up with them. Rudy Gobert is banged up, while the absence of Jaden McDaniels is a huge blow as one of their better Defenders and I think this is adding up to what has been a one-sided Series up to this point.
Bouncing back will not be easy for the Timberwolves as a Game 3 home team coming in off a loss, while this spot between being a small favourite or a small underdog has been a difficult place from which to cover in recent times.
The key for the Nuggets is to maintain the Defensive intensity they have shown in the Series and I think they are capable of doing that against this Minnesota team that are struggling to find the answers they need.
Minnesota are just 6-9 against the spread when set as an underdog of less than 3 points and I think the Denver Nuggets will find the big shots in the Fourth Quarter to do enough to win this one and cover the mark for a third time in the Series.
Saturday 22nd April
Philadelphia 76ers @ Brooklyn Nets Game 4 Pick: Some big plays late in the Fourth Quarter saw the Philadelphia 76ers finish the game on an 11-1 run which led to them taking a 3-0 lead in this First Round Series. They have an opportunity to become the first team through to the Conference Semi Finals on Saturday as they look to complete their first PlayOff sweep since 1991 when winning three games of a best of five Series.
It is important to try and get through the First Round without expending too much energy and Doc Rivers and the 76ers have to feel they have overcome a very difficult spot in beating the Brooklyn Nets in Game 3.
A physical game led to a number of flagrant foul calls, including on Joel Embiid and James Harden with the latter ejected, while the Brooklyn Nets also had Nic Claxton thrown out for taunting. Despite some of the issues that the 76ers felt went against them, the late rally has almost guaranteed their place in the next Round.
The Nets won't want to give up and they will certainly not want to see the season end at home after just eight days of PlayOff Basketball. Adjustments need to be made to the game plan which has been focusing on shutting out Joel Embiid, but the Nets might feel they have a big opportunity to at least push this Series back to Philadelphia.
That is down to the fact that Joel Embiid has been declared out of this game by the 76ers after picking up yet another PlayOff injury in Game 3. This is not a game in which he is being held out because the 76ers feel the Series is in hand, but Joel Embiid is considered day to day and needs all of the rest he can to make sure he is able to play as the post-season moves into the Conference Semi Final Round.
The injury is a significant worry for the Philadelphia 76ers, but winning on Saturday will just allow Rivers and the Coaching staff to prepare for what is likely to be the Boston Celtics in the next Round.
Brooklyn may believe they can have a better chance of containing this Philadelphia Offensive unit now they are not having to double or triple team Joel Embiid to get the ball out of his hands, but Game 3 feels like a missed opportunity for the underdog. The Nets remain heavily reliant on the three point shooters having a very hot day from the field, and that has been tough against the 76ers Defensive unit, while James Harden may have something to prove after the early ejection in Game 3.
Home teams set as a small favourite or underdog have had a very good record in Game 4 of the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs, but teams in a 0-3 hole have not been as effective.
I expect the 76ers to be that much more focused without their best player and I think they can complete the sweep on Saturday and make sure Joel Embiid is well rested and using all the time he needs to get ready to return.
Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Clippers Game 4 Pick: The decision to bring in both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard was supposed to bring the Los Angeles Clippers at least one NBA Championship and perhaps much more. Instead it is the Los Angeles Lakers who won the title in 2020 and the Clippers have regularly come up short in the post-season with injuries to their two best players an annual 'tradition'.
For all of the hard work that both of those players have put in, Paul George has already been expected to be ruled out for the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs, while Leonard has picked up an injury that saw him scratched for Game 3. The Phoenix Suns took advantage and regained home court advantage with a win, but the bigger problem for the Clippers is that Kahwi Leonard is expected to miss out for the remainder of the First Round Series too.
This is a major blow for Los Angeles Clippers, although the team and Coaching staff are just disappointed for Kawhi Leonard, while the fans are going to be just disappointed that the roster that has been put together have failed to spend enough time on the court together.
The Clippers are going to have a real challenge staying with the Phoenix Suns in the First Round Series without their best players. While the injury bug has hit again, the Suns look healthy and they have a number of players that can produce an efficient performance from the field.
A five point win for the Suns in Game 3 is very encouraging considering how well the Clippers shot the ball and it is a big ask for the Los Angeles roster to maintain that level. Coaching adjustments saw the Clippers fight back from a big deficit in the Fourth Quarter before ultimately coming up short, but going with a small line up proved problematic for the Clippers when it came to winning the battle on the boards.
This is going to be the test for the home team on Saturday- they will need their best shooters to make up for the two big absences, but losing size will be a difficult obstacle to overcome.
Phoenix have been pretty consistent when it comes to their performance from the field, while the Clippers have been much more up and down.
Expecting Los Angeles to shoot 54% from the field and 43% from the three point range for a second game in a row is perhaps asking too much and it may allow the Suns to pull away for a much more convincing win.
Phoenix are going to have to avoid being distracted by the injuries that the Los Angeles Clippers have been hit with and they will know how important it could be to win this Series without expending unnecessary energy. After losing Game 1, Phoenix have the momentum behind them and I think they can cover a bigger spread than the one they opened up facing in Game 3.
Sunday 23rd April
Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks Game 4 Pick: Two years ago the Number 4 Seeded New York Knicks failed to beat the Atlanta Hawks in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs, but the Number 5 Seeded Knicks look much more comfortable dealing with the post-season pressure.
After earning the split at the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Knicks returned to Madison Square Garden and dominated Defensively in a blowout win to take a lead in the Series. Winning Game 4 at home will put the Knicks in a position to reach the Conference Semi Finals for the first time since 2013 and there is a real belief that this New York team is capable doing that.
Some may even feel they can go further, but the Knicks have to focus and the First Round Series can turn very quickly, especially if they are not able to take Game 4.
You have to expect a positive reaction from the Cleveland Cavaliers, who cannot be as poor Offensively in Game 4 as they were in Game 3, but there is some mental pressure on the higher Seeded team. They have simply not matched up very well with the Knicks all season and Cleveland are struggling to find their identity in this Series with Donovan Mitchell the standout player on the roster.
Game 2 was an outlier for the Cavaliers in terms of their shooting efficiency, and they are going to need more from Darius Garland if they are going to turn this Series back around. The Cavaliers had a miserable day shooting the three ball in Game 3 and the expectation is that they will be able to make better use of some of the open looks that were found, but the same can be said for the New York Knicks who were only 10/33 from the three point arc themselves.
It has been a trend for both teams to have their struggles shooting from three point and that makes the rebounding battle even more important. All three games in the Series have been won by the team that have picked up the most boards and that is likely going to be a huge factor when Game 4 comes around on Sunday afternoon.
Game 4 teams that are set as small favourites or underdogs have been strong against the spread in recent years in the First Round of the PlayOffs, while the New York Knicks are playing behind the blowout win, which has also been an important momentum builder in the First Round.
The Knicks have won five of their last six against the Cleveland Cavaliers and I think they will do enough to win this one too.
I expect better from the Cleveland Cavaliers after a really poor Game 3 outing, but getting closer doesn't necessarily mean they can win and I will back the Knicks.
Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks Game 4 Pick: The Boston Celtics were beaten by the Atlanta Hawks for the first time since January 2022, a run of seven straight losses and they are going to look to make some big adjustments to avoid heading home at 2-2.
All credit has to be given to the Atlanta Hawks for fighting back at home in Game 3, but I do think the Celtics will believe they were as much to blame rather than any Hawks improvement. Allowing Atlanta to hit 56% of their field goals is an obvious issue, but the Celtics were guilty of allowing the Hawks to complete 15/34 shots from three point range and secure almost 20 more rebounds on the night.
These are marks that the Hawks didn't really get near to in the two road defeats to the Boston Celtics and so the visiting team will head into Game 4 believing that there will be natural regression to the mean for the Atlanta shooters.
At the same time, Boston fans will be expecting to see a lot more intensity all around from their team who did not have too many problems scoring. The Celtics have scored at least 112 points in all six games played against the Atlanta Hawks this season and so any improvement on the Defensive side of the court will likely give Boston a clear edge.
Playing road games in the PlayOffs is never easy, but Boston should be motivated having seen the Philadelphia 76ers move through with a sweep. Being dragged into an intense First Round Series before that Conference Semi Final Series will be hugely damaging for the Boston Celtics and so I expect a well Coached team to be much stronger all around after a loose Game 3 performance.
There will be a storm to weather on the road, as there always is in PlayOff Basketball and especially with the home team playing behind a win, but this is an extremely experienced Boston team that reached the NBA Finals last year. Losing Game 3 will have stung, but big road favourites tend to be very good teams to back in the First Round of the PlayOffs and the Celtics have largely had the measure of the Atlanta Hawks this season.
Game 3 might have just been the exception than a real change in momentum and I do think the Boston Celtics can be backed to cover and move into a 3-1 lead in the Series.
Monday 24th April
Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat Game 4 Pick: A back and forth First Round Series has swung back in favour of the lower Seeded Miami Heat having blown out the Milwaukee Bucks to take a 2-1 lead after dropping Game 2. Both of these teams have had plenty of recent PlayOff success so they are both going to be massively respected by the players in the other locker room, although it feels like the Series might come down to health, rather than quality, when all is said and done.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has missed the last two games of the Series and the Milwaukee Bucks have gone 1-1 in those games, but they are missing their best player. He has been working to get back on the court and there is an outside chance that he will be available in Game 4 when the Bucks try and win on the road at the Miami Heat for the first time.
They could be helped if Jimmy Butler is forced to sit out Game 4 having been injured in the Third Quarter of the blowout win in Game 3. He did return that day, but Butler will have to see how his body responds with the short turnaround between Game 3 and Game 4 before the Series heads back to Milwaukee.
The availability of Jimmy Butler is likely going to be a game time decision, but Miami are definitely going to be without Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo who have picked up big injuries in this Series. Bam Adebayo is banged up a little bit too, but the Heat have the edge and the manner they dominated Game 3 will have given them a lot of confidence against the top Seed in the Eastern Conference.
However, you cannot ignore the fact that the Bucks are the top Seed.
As bad as things got in Game 3, a win in Game 4 will mean regaining home court advantage in the Series and that has to be the entire focus of the team. The Bucks will certainly believe they cannot play any worse than they did in the blowout defeat and I do think they are a team that are capable of bouncing back as they have shown by winning Game 2 after dropping home court.
Number 1 Seeds have tended to be those that can bounce back from defeats or when they are trailing in a First Round Series, while big road favourites continue to produce big returns in the First Round of the PlayOffs. Of course the Bucks will have to shift the narrative of how teams react to blowout defeats in the opening Round and I do think this will be another very tough game for Milwaukee in an Arena where they have not enjoyed much success of late.
The Heat will need Jimmy Butler so I would certainly keep an eye on the news before locking anything down, although my feeling is that Butler will likely suit up knowing a 3-1 lead could give him an opportunity to rest his bumps and bruises. Miami are 5-0 against the spread in their last five when hosting the Milwaukee Bucks too and I do think the home team will keep this one close, even if the expected improved Bucks win the game.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 4 Pick: Some players may feel like they enjoy 'poking the bear', but LeBron James is one that you want to keep away from for as long as possible when it comes to post-season Basketball. Dillon Brooks may have found that out with James and Anthony Davis leading the way for the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 3 to take a 2-1 lead in this First Round Series, especially as a 'disrespectful' Brooks ended with seven points and an early ejection.
Dillon Brooks called LeBron 'old' and said he doesn't 'respect' him, but may have changed his mind a little bit after the loss in Game 3. The Memphis Grizzlies clearly didn't use those comments to fuel themselves, even with a returning Ja Morant, and the 9 points scored in the First Quarter meant they were playing catch up in the eventual 10 point defeat.
The Grizzlies have spoken about out-scoring the Lakers through the last three Quarters after falling into a 26 point hole at the end of the First Quarter, but I think that is just talk and they won't really put a lot of stock into that. After an injury hit season, the Lakers would have been managing the game after taking the big lead and they were still up by 20 points when the Fourth Quarter began.
Instead of looking at those last three Quarters, the Memphis Grizzlies have to come out with a much stronger start if they are going to avoid falling into a 1-3 deficit in the Series. There are some positives with how they are controlling the Lakers three point shooters after Game 1, but the Grizzlies have not exactly been shooting the ball as efficiently as they would have liked and this has to be improved if Memphis are not going to be upset as the Number 2 Seed in the Western Conference.
In recent First Round action, Number 2 Seeds have tended to bounce back from a loss and the Memphis Grizzlies were able to do that without Morant in Game 2.
This is not going to be easy against a very dangerous Number 7 Seed in the Los Angeles Lakers, but I do think Memphis will come out much better than they did in the last game and they can keep this one much more competitive throughout.
Beating Anthony Davis and LeBron James at their current health always looked a tough ask, but the Grizzlies can change the entire feeling about this Series by winning and regaining the lost home court advantage before heading back home for Game 5 later this week. They do look to be getting just enough points to be worthy of backing with the expected adjustments likely to produce a little better from the Offensive side of the court.
Memphis have lost all three games played against the Lakers in Los Angeles this season, but a desperate team should be able to keep this one close and remind everyone why they were one of the favourites to win the NBA Championship before a ball had been tipped this season.
MY PICKS: 15/04 Philadelphia 76ers - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
15/04 Boston Celtics - 9 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
15/04 New York Knicks + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
16/04 Memphis Grizzlies - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
16/04 Milwaukee Bucks - 9 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
16/04 Denver Nuggets - 7.5 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
17/04 Philadelphia 76ers - 9.5 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
17/04 Golden State Warriors - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
18/04 Boston Celtics - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
18/04 Cleveland Cavaliers - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
18/04 Phoenix Suns - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
19/04 Denver Nuggets - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
20/04 Philadelphia 76ers - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
20/04 Sacramento Kings + 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
20/04 Phoenix Suns - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
21/04 Boston Celtics - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
21/04 Denver Nuggets - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
22/04 Philadelphia 76ers - 2 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
22/04 Phoenix Suns - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
23/04 New York Knicks - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
23/04 Boston Celtics - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
24/04 Miami Heat + 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
24/04 Memphis Grizzlies + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
First Round Update: 17-6, + 9.49 Units (23 Units Staked, + 41.26% Yield)
