Australian Open 2013 Recap

The first Grand Slam of the season finished less than a week ago and it has already given us a taste of what is to come as far as I am concerned. Some things haven't changed in the last twelve months with both the defending Champions retaining their titles, but there were some breakthrough performances and it does whet the appetite for the coming season.

In terms of the tournament from the picks point of view, it was the worst Grand Slam performance since this blog has been started and am hoping that isn't the start of things to come. It could have been a lot worse if it hadn't been for the final few days of the tournament with winning picks from both the Women's and Men's Finals.


Andy Murray is the second best player in the World, but winning another Grand Slam won't come easy to him: I said at the US Open that I wouldn't have expected Andy Murray to beat Novak Djokovic if he had played the second Semi Final as the scheduling at that Grand Slam for the Men's tournament have always put the winner of the second Semi Final in a tough spot.

Before I go on, I don't want anyone thinking I don't like Andy Murray... In fact, I am a big fan of the Scot.

But I do think there is something still not quite right with his performances to add another Grand Slam to his name, especially not with the upcoming return of Rafael Nadal.

The problem I have with Murray is that out of the top four players, he is the one that seems to have a really 'low' period in the big matches, a period when he seems to fall away. While Novak Djokovic, Nadal and Roger Federer are a lot more consistent with their level, Murray does seem to lapse and this why some of his Grand Slam defeats haven't been the heartbreaking losses that the likes of Federer have suffered, but more a fall away.

I know some will blame his body breaking down at a critical moment, but I am not buying that, nor am I buying the fact that he had to play the second Semi Final as there is still a day rest and he had been in a 'short' five-setter.

As I say, Murray is still the second best player in the World in my opinion, and his lapses won't affect him in the majority of tournaments he plays, but winning a Grand Slam with that still happening is unlikely to happen twice, barring real scheduling help.


New breed of players on the WTA Tour: The Woman's game has evolved in recent years into bringing a lot of power onto the Tour and that has meant that players are making their big breakthrough as they get older and the teenage sensations are likely a thing of the past.

However, the performances of Heather Watson, Laura Robson and Sloane Stephens has shown that there are some very good players coming up as the Woman's game is being replenished. The veterans like Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams remain at the top of the game, while Na Li had another sensational tournament, but the youngsters are starting to make inroads.

The big question is which of the trio I mentioned is going to win a Grand Slam tournament? I think Stephens and Robson will find a way to win one of the Majors, but I am not sure Heather Watson will be able to avoid playing someone that will eventually be strong enough and consistent enough to knock her over before she completes a Major win.

If I was going to compare the players with some of the top ones in the World, I would say Stephens is a little like Victoria Azarenka (I don't mean she will definitely reach that level, but her game is similar), Robson reminds me of Petra Kvitova and Watson could perhaps have a career like Caroline Wozniacki.

However, these players are young and development is still the key for them.


Serena Williams is still the best female player on Tour, but can be vulnerable in Grand Slam tournaments: Over the last 14 months, Serena Williams has been pretty much the favourite for every Grand Slam tournament she has played and rightly so.

However, the Australian Open proved yet again that Serena plays one poor match a tournament and thus is likely going to be too short for the majority of occasions when she is priced at less than 2.20 to win a tournament.

Over the last 5 Grand Slams, Ekaterina Makarova, Virginie Razzano and now Sloane Stephens have been able to do enough to knock out Serena, while Jie Zheng pushed her all the way at Wimbledon last year.

That should be a bit of caution for those that like the American in the outright markets going forward, particularly at her worst Major which is the French Open.



Australian Open Final: 18-26, - 8.59 Units (87 Units Staked, - 9.87% Yield)

Season 2013: - 2.62 Units (133 Units Staked, - 1.97% Yield)


Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Recap July 9-15

It wasn't a great week on the circuit for me, but more of that below.

It is unusual for the calender to be so busy in the week following a Grand Slam event, but the Olympic Games means a slight shift in emphasis this season and that has meant a number of tournaments are getting their events through before the players head to North America for the hard court season and preparation for the US Open.

Four years ago, the Olympics actually took place after the two Masters events in Cincinnati and Canada, but this year they are fitted in ahead of the two big tournaments and thus giving the players a little more normality in their play. The biggest issue is going to be the lack of time between the Olympic tournament and the Toronto Masters starting and the change from grass to hard courts in the space of a few days could see a lot more surprising results early in that tournament.

Anyway, here are a couple of things that have popped up from the events taking place this week.


Laura Robson's first Semi Final appearance: It was a slightly disappointing end to the tournament in Palermo for Laura Robson as she made too many errors in the loss, but the run to the Semi Final on a clay court does bode well for her development as far as I am concerned.


The only real fear for her at the moment is that she won't develop the tactical side of her game to go with all the power she has. That may make her a player like, for example, Lucie Safarova that is capable of blowing past some top players when everything is working for her, but too often fails to keep things going consistently enough to beat the rest regularly.


Now that is not to say that Safarova hasn't done well in her career already, but sometimes you have to look to achieve more especially with the talent that Robson does possess.


I am still sure that Robson is going to be the most successful British Female player for over twenty years, but I really hope the LTA and her coaches don't ruin what could be a real diamond.




Big week for Lleyton Hewitt, but the exception rather than the norm these days: Lleyton Hewitt is an under-rated player as far as I am concerned, with a lot of people likely to look back at his career and feel he won his Grand Slam titles in a small period where Pete Sampras was no longer the force of old and Roger Federer was yet to make his breakthrough on the Main Tour.


He was a real fighter back in his prime and could give a lot of players a lot of problems with his ability to turn defence into attack within a couple of shots. However, those days are long gone and I think we may look back at Newport as being a tournament where Hewitt put things together for a short while before blending into fields.


The tournament here was not exactly loaded with top-level talent either, especially the half in which Hewitt was placed, but I think it says a lot that he was still 40-1 to win the event... To me, that shows how far he is from his best.


The problem for Hewitt is that he seems to have lost a step on the court so no longer can play defence as he used to and he doesn't have the big shots to prevent falling into long rallies.


I am not sure how long the Australian has left on the circuit these days, but it was nice to see him have at least one more successful week.




Daily Picks Final: 3-8, - 6.08 Units (18 Units Staked)


Outright Picks Final: + 0.50 Units (3 Units Staked)


Week Final: - 5.58 Units (21 Units Staked)


Season 2012: + 67.54 Units (630 Units Staked, 10.7% Yield)


Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Wimbledon Day 6 Picks (June 30th 2012)

We are finally at that point when all the British interest (big exception being Andy Murray) are no longer in the draw and I guess that is a good thing for those who enjoy watching decent tennis rather than mismatches.

In saying that, I think Heather Watson should be given credit for reaching the Third Round here, but the hard work for her will start now- she has to find a way to push forward and get better consistency from her results and start moving up the Rankings as soon as possible.

Right at this moment though, I would favour Laura Robson to end up having the better career of the two youngsters that British Women's tennis are pinning their hopes to. Robson has is a lefty, has some punishing groundstrokes and also has a decent serve- she is also feeling more comfortable in her body now that her growth spurt is slowing down and she looks like she will have the capabilities of moving up the Rankings as long as she is given the tactical support.

On the other hand, Watson is more a scrapper that will look to play like a wall against opponents, but I think there is only so far you can go playing that way on the WTA Tour these days. Agnieska Radwanska is the ultimate grinder on the Tour that will look to use the pace of her opponents and she has reached World Number 3, but I think it is telling that she has failed to reach a Semi Final at the Grand Slam level.

With the power involved in the Women's game, there is every chance that someone is hitting too big on any given day and you have to have some element of aggression if you are to achieve major things at this level. Unfortunately, Watson doesn't strike me as someone that is going to ever be comfortable looking to play her shots and I don't think she has the movement skills of Radwanska to push herself up into the upper echelons of the Women's game.

I might be wrong, but I am going for Robson to finish with the better career of the two players.


The picks went 2-2 yesterday for the slightest of losses, but it could, and perhaps should, have been better as Sabine Lisicki seemed to mentally check out of the second set despite winning a tight first set. Oh well, I can't always have it my way, although the Janko Tipsarevic loss to Mikhail Youzhny was a big surprise in my mind.

Day 6 Picks:

Yanina Wickmayer + 3.5 games v Tamira Paszek: I mentioned on my Twitter page yesterday that I can't believe the amount of players on the WTA Tour that insist on mindlessly hitting the ball as hard as possible and not really look to construct points and Yanina Wickmayer is the ultimate example of that.

Wickmayer has not really reached the heights of making the Semi Finals at the US Open in 2009, but she has enjoyed some success on the grass in the past. The Belgian did reach the Fourth Round here last season, although she is coming up against an opponent that should be full of confidence as she continues a winning streak.

Tamira Paszek is very comfortable on the grass and she has continued her form from winning in Eastbourne last week when surprising Caroline Wozniacki in the First Round.

Paszek has had a nightmare season going 2-12 on the Tour, but she has turned that around with a 7-1 record on the grass courts. The Austrian reached the Quarter Final here at Wimbledon last season too, but losses to Anne Keothavong and Alison Riske in other pre-Wimbledon grass court tournaments have to be a slight concern.

This match does have all the makings of going into three sets so taking the games could be very valuable and Wickmayer can get so hot that she can roll of games in succession that could see her cover even in a three set loss. I will  just keep my fingers crossed that the crazy, error making machine does not turn up tomorrow.


Petra Kvitova - 6.5 games v Varvara Lepchenko: This looks like it could be a mismatch as the defending Wimbledon Champion takes on a player that had a 2-10 record in grass court matches in her career before winning in the first couple of rounds in this tournament.

Petra Kvitova hasn't really played as well as she did at Wimbledon last season, but she did have a much more comfortable win in the Second Round than she did in the First and I think that will have at least improved her belief that she can retain the title.

She will also have plenty of confidence having won both previous meetings against Varvara Lepchenko including a straight sets win for the loss of just three games at the French Open last month.

The American is a left-handed player but her advantage will be negated by Kvitova who is also a lefty, and Lepchenko has not faced anyone of this quality so far in this tournament.

It's unlikely to be as easy as the French Open meeting as that was terribly one-sided, but a 6-3, 6-2 win would not be that surprising in my opinion.


Philipp Kohlschreiber - 1.5 sets v Lukas Rosol: This is really a pick made against Lukas Rosol who must surely come back down to Earth following a truly once-in-a-lifetime match against Rafael Nadal to beat the Spaniard in the Second Round.

How many times in a tennis tournament will a player have a terrific performance to cause an upset and then struggle to reach those heights under new expectations in their next match? That is the problem for Rosol as he not going to be under the roof in Centre Court, but on the outside courts with the cameras fixed on him.

It won't just be the expectation that will be a problem for the Czech player, but the fact he is playing Philipp Kohlschreiber who is a very good grass court player himself. The German won the tournament in Halle last season, and he also reached the Semi Final there this season, although he has not progressed beyond the Third Round at Wimbledon.

You know Kohlschreiber is good enough to try and keep the pressure on Rosol and I will look for him to take advantage of Rosol who may just have had a hard time focusing on what he wants to do in the tournament following all the attention he would have received since Thursday night.

It might be too much for him to take mentally and it has to be remembered that Rosol isn't that experienced in matches played on the grass and I think Kohlschreiber can get through in three or four sets.


Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Sam Querrey: Marin Cilic has quietly made his way through the draw and I think he can set up a potentially exciting match with Andy Murray in the Fourth Round with a win over the big-serving American Sam Querrey in this encounter.

Cilic won Queens, albeit through a David Nalbandian default, but he showed some solid signs there all week and he continues to play well on the grass. He has all the tools to do well on the surface, but the most under-rated may be his returning game at the moment which is helping him set up a number of break point chances. I think at Queens he was winning almost 50% of return points before the Final, while he also was showing his ability in that aspect of his game in the exhibition match he played against John Isner days before the tournament started.

Sam Querrey has had his best performance at a Grand Slam since 2010 by reaching the Third Round here and he is clearly also very comfortable on the grass as a former winner at Queens and also reaching the Fourth Round here in 2010.

However, the American is still trying to get back to the form that took him that far at Wimbledon and the US Open following an injury that kept him out for a few months last season and I think he may have a few problems as he may not be able to rely on his serve as much as usual with Cilic returning the way he has been.

The Croatian also has a 2-0 head to head record against Querrey with both wins coming on grass courts... However, both of those matches had to go the distance as Cilic won in five sets at Wimbledon in 2009 and was a three set winner at Queens earlier this month.

I believe this one will be settled in his favour in four sets and I believe he will earn enough breaks of serve to cover the spread.


MY PICKS: Yanina Wickmayer + 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 6.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 1.5 sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)


Wimbledon Update: 11-9, + 5.32 Units (39 Units Staked)