Tennis Picks 2013 (July 14th)

It has been a strong week on the Tour for the picks with plenty of winners coming in as we reach the Finals in the majority of tournaments being played.

The only negative is that Newport saw their Semi Finals rained off and that means double duty for the player that will be picking up the trophy. I will also be putting up the outright picks from the tournaments that will begin on Monday later on during the day as well as the update for the season totals.


Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: Fernando Verdasco has been playing some solid tennis this week and he has also shown his character in fighting through a couple of matches that have gone the distance.

The Spaniard hasn't win a title this season, but he is playing just about as good as I have seen at any point in the last twelve months and it is no surprise that he could see his Ranking improve again this week. Verdasco will want to be seeded for the US Open and that means picking up as many points int the next month as possible and you can see he is very motivated.

That isn't to say that Carlos Berlocq will be an easy match for him in the Final as the Argentinian is very comfortable on the clay courts and he is very likely to finish with his best record on the Tour.

However, there is definitely more upside in the Verdasco game and I think his aggression is going to give him a few chances to break serve, while he has been pretty effective behind serve for much of the week. There will be breaks simply because they are on a clay court and Berlocq is comfortable on the surface, but I do believe Verdasco is going to be too strong and win his first title after a 63, 64 match.


Sara Errani - 4.5 games v Roberta Vinci: These two are best friends off the court, but that hasn't stopped Sara Errani dominating the most recent matches between them on the WTA Tour.

The Doubles partners will meet in the Final in Palermo on Sunday and I am comfortable backing Errani to come out on top again having won the last five matches between the players without dropping a set.

It seems Errani is comfortable playing against the variation that Roberta Vinci brings to the court as she is bound to have seen that many times in practice over the years and I do believe the higher Ranked Italian is very happy being back on the clay courts.

One set is bound to be tight, but you have to like Errani being a little too good at key moments and recording a 64, 62 win to take the title home again.


MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Mahut - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units) Advised yesterday and rain delayed in Newport

Weekly Update: 16-5, + 20.10 Units (40 Units Staked, + 50.25% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2013 (July 13th)

Friday looked like being a total disaster in terms of the picks this week- it has been a strong week, but exits for Tomas Berdych and Gael Monfils in Bastad and Stuttgart respectively means two out three outright picks are out.

However, the daily picks are still in a strong position despite the first losing day of the week and there is still the positive of Lleyton Hewitt being involved in Newport after he came from a set down to win his Quarter Final. Hewitt will need to play a lot better if he is to get past John Isner in the Semi Final, a repeat of the Final from last year, especially with his first serve percentage being too low at the moment.

The Australian will know that he can't afford to let Isner get involved in his service games as it will be tough to break him at a tournament where Isner has won back to back titles. The winner of that match will feel they are the favourites to win the tournament, although Nicolas Mahut will certainly have something to say about that with one grass court title under his belt this season.


It is Semi Final day on Saturday and these are my picks:

Fernando Verdasco v Grigor Dimitrov: I have backed Fernando Verdasco in the last two Rounds here and I think he is worth chancing one more time at least in this Semi Final against Grigor Dimitrov.

Verdasco played erratically against Nicolas Almagro in his Quarter Final and those errors can look terrible at times- he missed plenty of easy shots, but he remained aggressive in that match and had his compatriot in defensive positions for a lot of the match.

Grigor Dimitrov came through pretty comfortably against Juan Monaco in the last Round and he has had some big performances on the clay courts this season already. While his profile has been raised by some of those results, Dimitrov can still be a little too inconsistent for me and I think this match will have both players fluctuating their levels between the poor and world class.

I think the Verdasco aggression may help the Spaniard find a way past Dimitrov in this one- his lefty serve is setting up points very effectively at the moment and as long as he can keep hold of his errors and the loose shots, I think he will put a lot of pressure on the youngster.

I like Dimitrov and the way he approaches the game, but Verdasco is a player in form and has looked very motivated this week. I think he is still the more capable of the two on the clay and I think he finds a way to get through in three sets.


Nicolas Mahut - 3.5 games v Michael Russell: Nicolas Mahut always had the game to be dangerous on the grass courts and this season he has fulfilled some of those expectations by winning his first tournament on the surface.

Confidence has to be high in the Frenchman with the amount of wins he has had over the last month and he has come through the first three Rounds here fairly comfortably. Even the win in the Quarter Final was a lot easier than the 64, 76 scoreline would indicate.

I expect Mahut to hold on to serve for most of the match, although Michael Russell shouldn't be underestimated with the veteran believing he is playing as well now as he has at any point in his career. However, Russell has a lot of tennis in his legs over the last couple of weeks and that could finally catch up with him, especially after the three tiebreaks he needed to see of Igor Sijsling in the Quarter Finals.

If Mahut continues to serve at the level we saw in the last Round, I expect he will have a little too much for Russell in this one and come through 75, 64.


Klara Zakopalova + 5.5 games v Sara Errani: Sara Errani was a big favourite to win the tournament in Palermo before the event began, but she could find it a tougher Semi Final than the layers imagine.

While I expect Errani to have plenty of success against the Klara Zakopalova serve, I also believe the latter has the power to hit through the Italian and will be able to earn the chance to break her serve on a number of occasions.

There is no doubt that Zakopalova can be very erratic at times, but she has pushed some of the best players on the Tour in the past and she should have plenty of confidence having reached the Semi Final here.

I don't think Zakopalova wins the match, but I do think she has a chance to at least make it competitive and so I will take the games in this one.


MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Mahut - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Klara Zakopalova + 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: + 16.30 Units (36 Units Staked, + 45.28% Yield)

Tennis Recap July 9-15

It wasn't a great week on the circuit for me, but more of that below.

It is unusual for the calender to be so busy in the week following a Grand Slam event, but the Olympic Games means a slight shift in emphasis this season and that has meant a number of tournaments are getting their events through before the players head to North America for the hard court season and preparation for the US Open.

Four years ago, the Olympics actually took place after the two Masters events in Cincinnati and Canada, but this year they are fitted in ahead of the two big tournaments and thus giving the players a little more normality in their play. The biggest issue is going to be the lack of time between the Olympic tournament and the Toronto Masters starting and the change from grass to hard courts in the space of a few days could see a lot more surprising results early in that tournament.

Anyway, here are a couple of things that have popped up from the events taking place this week.


Laura Robson's first Semi Final appearance: It was a slightly disappointing end to the tournament in Palermo for Laura Robson as she made too many errors in the loss, but the run to the Semi Final on a clay court does bode well for her development as far as I am concerned.


The only real fear for her at the moment is that she won't develop the tactical side of her game to go with all the power she has. That may make her a player like, for example, Lucie Safarova that is capable of blowing past some top players when everything is working for her, but too often fails to keep things going consistently enough to beat the rest regularly.


Now that is not to say that Safarova hasn't done well in her career already, but sometimes you have to look to achieve more especially with the talent that Robson does possess.


I am still sure that Robson is going to be the most successful British Female player for over twenty years, but I really hope the LTA and her coaches don't ruin what could be a real diamond.




Big week for Lleyton Hewitt, but the exception rather than the norm these days: Lleyton Hewitt is an under-rated player as far as I am concerned, with a lot of people likely to look back at his career and feel he won his Grand Slam titles in a small period where Pete Sampras was no longer the force of old and Roger Federer was yet to make his breakthrough on the Main Tour.


He was a real fighter back in his prime and could give a lot of players a lot of problems with his ability to turn defence into attack within a couple of shots. However, those days are long gone and I think we may look back at Newport as being a tournament where Hewitt put things together for a short while before blending into fields.


The tournament here was not exactly loaded with top-level talent either, especially the half in which Hewitt was placed, but I think it says a lot that he was still 40-1 to win the event... To me, that shows how far he is from his best.


The problem for Hewitt is that he seems to have lost a step on the court so no longer can play defence as he used to and he doesn't have the big shots to prevent falling into long rallies.


I am not sure how long the Australian has left on the circuit these days, but it was nice to see him have at least one more successful week.




Daily Picks Final: 3-8, - 6.08 Units (18 Units Staked)


Outright Picks Final: + 0.50 Units (3 Units Staked)


Week Final: - 5.58 Units (21 Units Staked)


Season 2012: + 67.54 Units (630 Units Staked, 10.7% Yield)


Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Picks July 13th

It was a miserable start to the week yesterday as all four picks made failed to make the grade. There were some bad luck attached to some of the failures, but that's the way it goes sometimes and you have to take the rough with the smooth.

While those picks failed to get anything going, at least Juan Monaco and Marin Cilic made it through to the Quarter Finals in their respective tournaments.

With many of the tournaments still waiting to ensure all their Quarter Finalists are settled, it does mean the choices for the day's play have not been given to us just yet so I will be making the picks, if any, in the morning.


Irina-Camelia Begu - 4.5 games v Estrella Cabeza-Candela: This is a big match for two girls that will feel they can have a real breakthrough week on the Main Tour with a Semi Final place up for the winner.

Estrella Cabeza-Candela had to qualify for the tournament in Palermo, but she has done very well to get to this stage, although the match up against Irina-Camelia Begu is not the best for her. Begu is beginning to make a real move up the Rankings, although she has struggled for consistency over the last couple of months.

The clay courts remain Begu's biggest opportunity for success as she hopes to replicate the form she showed after Wimbledon last year. At that time, Begu was a Runner Up and a Quarter Finalist at her next two tournaments on the clay, and that is what she will look to replicate here.

Cabeza-Candela has performed well whenever she has reached the Main Tour this season, but the majority of her work remains on the Challenger Tour. However, she has a couple of Quarter Final appearances to her name on the Main Tour over the last 12 months, although always finding someone too strong at that stage.

These two met twice last year with Begu winning both matches on clay courts. In each of those matches, Begu won one set with a bagel and she also won all the sets they have competed against one another. I will look for her to continue that form here and book a Semi Final place with a bit of ease.


Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: Alexandr Dolgopolov was the beneficiary of a bad line call in his win over Fabio Fognini which allowed him to move through to this match with a bit of ease, despite a couple of wobbles down the stretch. The Ukrainian has been struggling for form over the last couple of months, but he does have good memories of this tournament as the defending Champion and clearly is at ease in his surroundings.

Dolgopolov meets Carlos Berlocq in this Quarter Final who has lost 6 of his last 7 matches before winning in the first two Rounds here. The Argentine is far behind the form that took him to Finals and Quarter Final appearances earlier in the season and this is the furthest he has got in a tournament since reaching the same stage in Houston back in April.

While Dolgopolov is a little more erratic in his play, I think he is going to be a little too strong for Berlocq who is not playing at a great level and has taken advantage of a kind draw so far.

They have also met three times since the beginning of last season and it is Dolgopolov who leads 2-1, including a straight sets win on a clay court.

This might be close, but a 6-4, 6-4 win for Dolgopolov could be the outcome in my opinion.


Dominika Cibulkova - 3.5 games v Sorana Cirstea: Dominika Cibulkova is one of the toughest players to read on the Tour, although she does strike me as one who plays behind her confidence- for example, if she has a close record against someone, or she has played tough matches against someone, I think Cibulkova will play them tough every time.

This is the case today as she plays against Sorana Cirstea, a player she has comfortably beaten in both their previous matches, including for the loss of just two games earlier this season in Barcelona.

Cirstea started the season with a great win over Sam Stosur in the Australian Open, but she has failed to reach those heights consistently and I think that will be her problem against a player like Cibulkova that can cover the court effectively.

I think Cibulkova will likely get a break more in each set than Cirstea and that should see her through to the cover here.


MY PICKS: Irina-Camelia Begu - 4.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 0-4, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked)