Day 4 was a really good day for me in all departments as all 4 picks came in as winners and Serena Williams and Roger Federer made serene progress through to the 3rd Round.
The tournament is beginning to warm up as most of the seeded players in the Men's section are still around, while the Williams-Azarenka 3rd Round match should be fun to watch in the Women's draw.
Hopefully the good form can continue and we can keep the profits rolling:
Lucie Safarova - 3.5 games vs Monica Niculescu: This is a risky first play of the day as Lucie Safarova is by no means the most trustworthy player on the WTA Tour regardless of her top 30 Ranking.
Safarova has been forced to work hard in the first 2 rounds here, but the fact she is still standing shows she is in decent nick. It took Serena Williams 3 sets to stop her run in Toronto, so Safarova is clearly in some sort of form.
Niculescu has not had to work half as hard to come through her first matches here, but she has lost to the better players she has faced on the hard courts this season.
If Safarova can limit her unforced errors, she should be able to move through in straight sets.
Samantha Stosur - 3.5 games vs Nadia Petrova: Petrova may be leading the head to head 4-1, but I am favouring Sam Stosur to show her improvement in this match.
Stosur won their last meeting on the grass in Eastbourne in June- the win in straight sets was the first time she had even won a set against Petrova in their previous meetings.
The Australian has been in fine form during the US hard court season and defeats to Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams are not exactly disappointments.
Petrova makes too many errors these days and throws in too many bad games to keep up with Stosur, in my opinion, and I expect the higher seed to move through with something to spare.
Andy Murray - 7.5 games vs Robin Haase: Maybe I am being crazy, but I can't help thinking the Dutchman has been overestimated slightly in this match.
Don't get me wrong- Haase is a decent enough player, but I have reservations he can keep up the consistency required to knock off Andy Murray.
I remember Haase pushing Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon last year to 5 sets, but he has played a lot of tennis over the last week and, although he is full of confidence, I think he is going to feel the fatigue as Murray makes him play one more shot and wears him down.
I expect a tight first set for Murray, but then I see the British Number 1 furthering his credentials for winning this tournament by pulling away for a very good win.
David Ferrer win 3-1 in sets vs James Blake: James Blake has beaten David Ferrer in their 2 previous meetings, but I don't think he has the same consistency these days to knock off the dogged Spaniard.
Ferrer started slowly in his 1st Round win over Igor Andreev, but looked very assured by the end of the match.
I expect James Blake will still have enough to sneak a set through big hitting, but Ferrer's consistency will eventually break the veteran down and come through in 4 sets.
MY PICKS: Lucie Safarova - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Samantha Stosur - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 7.5 games @ 2.18 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer win 3-1 in sets @ 3.60 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
US OPEN UPDATE: 12-3, + 17.29 Units
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Showing posts with label James Blake. Show all posts
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Friday, 2 September 2011
Sunday, 21 August 2011
Tennis Outright Picks August 22nd-28th
My final profit/loss update from last week will be updated as soon as the Andy Murray-Novak Djokovic match is completed in Cincinnati, but in the meantime I will have a look at next weeks draw in the last tournaments before the US Open.
This can be a little difficult to predict which players will take these last tournaments seriously, especially with 2 weeks of tough tennis ahead of them at Flushing Meadows, so I will look for any outsiders that may be more interested in this tournament knowing they are unlikely to have a real impact in New York.
ATP Winston Salem Open
The Number 1 seed, and favourite to win this event is Andy Roddick, a player that clearly needs the matches under his belt following a long lay off and an early exit in Cincinnati.
The American's run through to the Semi Final does not look to have too many obstacles in front of it, although I am concerned he could pull out after a couple of wins, either withdrawing or not putting in the required effort to win a match. My reason for that is Roddick will want to be at his freshest going into the US Open which will begin the day after this event finishes, and I cannot imagine he wants to be involved in all the tennis required to win this tournament.
A real potential threat in the bottom half of Roddick's section is John Isner, who actually beat Roddick at the US Open two years ago. Isner has played a lot of tennis this Summer, reaching a Final in Atlanta and Semi Final in Washington, but I also have a few doubts whether he will want to put himself through a gruelling week before a Grand Slam where he must feel he can have an impact.
Players like Marcos Baghdatis and Dmitry Tursunov will feel they may just be able to take advantage if the likes of Roddick and Isner fall out of this section, but both have their own issues and cannot really be backed with any confidence, even at big double figure prices.
Baghdatis has just employed Miles Maclagen, Andy Murray's former coach, but it will take some time before their styles mesh, while Tursunov has failed to really make an impact over the Summer.
The other half of the draw has the same problems with seeded players like Nikolay Davydenko and Jurgen Melzer not to be trusted on current form while others like Kevin Anderson and Alexandr Dolgopolov look too short in the market.
My interest, therefore, in this tournament will instead come in the form of one young player, and one old player.
Both of my picks are American, but I would recommend keeping stakes very small- the first is Ryan Harrison, the other is James Blake.
Ryan Harrison has been in decent nick during the American hard court Summer swing, reaching the Semi Final in both Atlanta and Los Angeles, while being beaten by Novak Djokovic in Cincinnati is not exactly a disgrace.
Harrison has a tough looking match with Kevin Anderson in Round 2 if he progresses, but I think he could cause enough troubles to beat the big serving South African, especially if his serve is not on top form as it was against Andy Murray in Toronto.
He may then be forced into a big match with James Blake in the 3rd Round and I think the winner of that will have a decent chance of going all the way.
Blake has been looking like he is getting back to something like his best, although he is still inconsistent. However, he has won a few Challengers in recent months and it is clear he is trying his best to get back up the Rankings.
The veteran will have a tough 2nd Round match with Robin Haase, but a win in will leave us with a potential match between himself and Harrison.
It's a tough tournament to second guess players, so keep stakes to a minimum.
Prices for the two WTA Events in Texas and New Haven have not been released, I'll check prices when they are released (likely tomorrow at this rate) and will tweet any outrights I have from that market.
MY PICKS: Ryan Harrison @ 26.00 Ladbrokes (0.5 Units E/W)
James Blake @ 26.00 Ladbrokes (0.5 Units E/W)
This can be a little difficult to predict which players will take these last tournaments seriously, especially with 2 weeks of tough tennis ahead of them at Flushing Meadows, so I will look for any outsiders that may be more interested in this tournament knowing they are unlikely to have a real impact in New York.
ATP Winston Salem Open
The Number 1 seed, and favourite to win this event is Andy Roddick, a player that clearly needs the matches under his belt following a long lay off and an early exit in Cincinnati.
The American's run through to the Semi Final does not look to have too many obstacles in front of it, although I am concerned he could pull out after a couple of wins, either withdrawing or not putting in the required effort to win a match. My reason for that is Roddick will want to be at his freshest going into the US Open which will begin the day after this event finishes, and I cannot imagine he wants to be involved in all the tennis required to win this tournament.
A real potential threat in the bottom half of Roddick's section is John Isner, who actually beat Roddick at the US Open two years ago. Isner has played a lot of tennis this Summer, reaching a Final in Atlanta and Semi Final in Washington, but I also have a few doubts whether he will want to put himself through a gruelling week before a Grand Slam where he must feel he can have an impact.
Players like Marcos Baghdatis and Dmitry Tursunov will feel they may just be able to take advantage if the likes of Roddick and Isner fall out of this section, but both have their own issues and cannot really be backed with any confidence, even at big double figure prices.
Baghdatis has just employed Miles Maclagen, Andy Murray's former coach, but it will take some time before their styles mesh, while Tursunov has failed to really make an impact over the Summer.
The other half of the draw has the same problems with seeded players like Nikolay Davydenko and Jurgen Melzer not to be trusted on current form while others like Kevin Anderson and Alexandr Dolgopolov look too short in the market.
My interest, therefore, in this tournament will instead come in the form of one young player, and one old player.
Both of my picks are American, but I would recommend keeping stakes very small- the first is Ryan Harrison, the other is James Blake.
Ryan Harrison has been in decent nick during the American hard court Summer swing, reaching the Semi Final in both Atlanta and Los Angeles, while being beaten by Novak Djokovic in Cincinnati is not exactly a disgrace.
Harrison has a tough looking match with Kevin Anderson in Round 2 if he progresses, but I think he could cause enough troubles to beat the big serving South African, especially if his serve is not on top form as it was against Andy Murray in Toronto.
He may then be forced into a big match with James Blake in the 3rd Round and I think the winner of that will have a decent chance of going all the way.
Blake has been looking like he is getting back to something like his best, although he is still inconsistent. However, he has won a few Challengers in recent months and it is clear he is trying his best to get back up the Rankings.
The veteran will have a tough 2nd Round match with Robin Haase, but a win in will leave us with a potential match between himself and Harrison.
It's a tough tournament to second guess players, so keep stakes to a minimum.
Prices for the two WTA Events in Texas and New Haven have not been released, I'll check prices when they are released (likely tomorrow at this rate) and will tweet any outrights I have from that market.
MY PICKS: Ryan Harrison @ 26.00 Ladbrokes (0.5 Units E/W)
James Blake @ 26.00 Ladbrokes (0.5 Units E/W)
Thursday, 4 August 2011
Tennis Picks August 4th Washington and San Diego
While it is almost impossible to pick winners every day, nothing hurts more than when a pick looks all set to win their match, but then inexplicably fall apart as the final furlong approaches.
Unfortunately for me, that was the situation yesterday as Sofia Arvidsson won the first 9 games of her match with Alberta Brianti only to be pegged back to lose the 2nd set on a tie break.
To make matters worse, she then served for the match at 5-4 in the final set, only to be broken again and lose on the tie break for a second time.
Those are the kinds of losses that are much harder to take, and led to a bad day overall as Jurgen Melzer pulled out with an injury in his match with Donald Young and Ryan Harrison was comfortably beaten by Victor Troicki.
On a brighter note, the last two days has seen Marcos Baghdatis' section of the draw open up and I really hope he can take advantage of that. Jurgen Melzer, Xavier Malisse and Mardy Fish have all exited the tournament and the 19.00 we backed for Baghdatis to win this tournament at the start of the week is long gone.
Hopefully I will have better luck with the following picks:
Double; Marcos Baghdatis vs Somdev Devvarman and Gael Monfils vs Ryan Sweeting: Marcos Baghdatis will play his match this afternoon with a 1-0 advantage after all the rain yesterday decimated the days play. He was soundly beaten by Devvarman in Indian Wells earlier this season, but he must feel he can go far in a tournament where he has quite a few points to defend from last year after the exits of a number of seeds.
Gael Monfils should have too much class for Ryan Sweeting even if he is not the most reliable player on the tour when it comes to the mental approach of the game. His lack of hard court matches in recent weeks is a concern but he has enough ability to see off Sweeting here.
Double; Radek Stepanek vs Jarkko Nieminen and John Isner vs James Blake: This is a much riskier double, in my opinion anyway, than the double above but I do think both players are able to come through their matches.
Radek Stepanek has an exceptional record against left handers on the tour and it is not different against Nieminen who has beaten the last 3 times they have played.
Stepanek has been impressive in his first 2 matches of the Summer on the hard courts and has generally been the better hard court player of the two. If he continues to serve well, I can see Stepanek coming through in straight sets with a break in each set.
John Isner beat James Blake in a tight battle in Atlanta a couple of weeks ago and I am taking him to confirm that form over the veteran today. Isner's serve can put additional pressure on Blake who is still giving up a few chances on his own servince games and the pressure could eventually tell.
I would not be surprised if we see a couple of tie breaks again tonight, but I think Isner can be good enough, just, to come through.
MY PICKS: Double; Marcos Baghdatis and Gael Monfils @ 2.01 William Hill (2 Units)
Double; Radek Stepanek and John Isner @ 2.53 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE WASHINGTON/SAN DIEGO: - 1.5 Units
Tuesday, 2 August 2011
Tennis Picks August 2nd Washington and San Diego
It has been an incredibly busy day today meaning I could not get on with my picks at a reasonable time so I am going to ignore the San Diego matches as they start very soon and I have not had time to look and analyse my picks.
On the other hand, we have a bit of time before the Washington tournament starts so I will make a couple of plays from there:
Ryan Sweeting vs Alex Bogomolov: It is hard picking through these early round matches as you get some untrustworthy players that are more likely to stress you out than give you an easy win.
In saying that, I am going to back Ryan Sweeting to beat his compatriot tonight even though Bogomolov has been in the better form when looking at his Semi Final appearance in Los Angeles last week.
Sweeting has not been playing that well in recent weeks but he did perform pretty well at Delray Beach and Indian Wells earlier this season and the hard courts in the US should be his best surface. He also has decent course form by reaching the 3rd Round here in Washington last year.
Bogomolov has had a couple of strong tournaments on the hard courts this year with the Semi Final from last week backed up by a 3rd Round appearance in Miami. He is perhaps more notable on this side of the pond for beating Andy Murray earlier this year.
Ryan Sweeting has also won 4 of the 7 matches they have played- in fact he is 3-1 in the last 4 matches that have taken place over the last 18 months and he also beat Bogomolov in the qualifiers here last year.
James Blake vs David Nalbandian: This could be a terrible pick at around 2am British time, but I think James Blake has a chance in surprising David Nalbandian here.
Blake has played some decent tennis over the last month on the hard courts so he should be mostly comfortable on the surface. It has taken the likes of John Isner and Juan Martin Del Potro to stop his runs and the American must be disappointed to be handed this tough 2nd Round match.
However, Nalbandian has not played a match since Wimbledon as injury and then lack of entry to tournaments has given him an extended time off. He is the reigning Champion here so motivation should be high with points to defend, but it is a tough test on little competitive tennis.
Blake also won their only previous meeting and could cause problems if he is hitting the ball well- the problem these days is the lack of consistency that Blake has and Nalbandian basically won this tournament last year with little tennis coming in.
As I said, it might look silly at 2am this morning, but I will back the underdog here too.
MY PICKS: Ryan Sweeting @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
James Blake @ 2.20 Stan James (1 Unit)
WEEKLY UPDATE WASHINGTON/SAN DIEGO: + 0.2 Units
On the other hand, we have a bit of time before the Washington tournament starts so I will make a couple of plays from there:
Ryan Sweeting vs Alex Bogomolov: It is hard picking through these early round matches as you get some untrustworthy players that are more likely to stress you out than give you an easy win.
In saying that, I am going to back Ryan Sweeting to beat his compatriot tonight even though Bogomolov has been in the better form when looking at his Semi Final appearance in Los Angeles last week.
Sweeting has not been playing that well in recent weeks but he did perform pretty well at Delray Beach and Indian Wells earlier this season and the hard courts in the US should be his best surface. He also has decent course form by reaching the 3rd Round here in Washington last year.
Bogomolov has had a couple of strong tournaments on the hard courts this year with the Semi Final from last week backed up by a 3rd Round appearance in Miami. He is perhaps more notable on this side of the pond for beating Andy Murray earlier this year.
Ryan Sweeting has also won 4 of the 7 matches they have played- in fact he is 3-1 in the last 4 matches that have taken place over the last 18 months and he also beat Bogomolov in the qualifiers here last year.
James Blake vs David Nalbandian: This could be a terrible pick at around 2am British time, but I think James Blake has a chance in surprising David Nalbandian here.
Blake has played some decent tennis over the last month on the hard courts so he should be mostly comfortable on the surface. It has taken the likes of John Isner and Juan Martin Del Potro to stop his runs and the American must be disappointed to be handed this tough 2nd Round match.
However, Nalbandian has not played a match since Wimbledon as injury and then lack of entry to tournaments has given him an extended time off. He is the reigning Champion here so motivation should be high with points to defend, but it is a tough test on little competitive tennis.
Blake also won their only previous meeting and could cause problems if he is hitting the ball well- the problem these days is the lack of consistency that Blake has and Nalbandian basically won this tournament last year with little tennis coming in.
As I said, it might look silly at 2am this morning, but I will back the underdog here too.
MY PICKS: Ryan Sweeting @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
James Blake @ 2.20 Stan James (1 Unit)
WEEKLY UPDATE WASHINGTON/SAN DIEGO: + 0.2 Units
Wednesday, 27 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 27th Stanford and LA
Not a good start to the week in all honesty, with picks falling by the wayside and some results being disappointingly close to going my way and then falling apart.
I took the morning in Europe off as I didn't have any strong feelings from the matches at Gstaad, while I left Juan Carlos Ferrero alone in Umag in the hope my outright pick can win his match with Ivan Ljubicic and really open up the draw for a run to the Final for a 3rd consecutive year.
Hopefully the extra time to compose myself will make the next couple of picks from Stanford and LA end in a much more positive manner than they have been so far:
Double; Dominika Cibulkova vs Christina McHale and Maria Sharapova vs Daniela Hantuchova: Dominika Cibulkova is having a good season and could see herself making a real move up the rankings after a very disappointing Summer last season. She had a solid win over Kimiko Date-Krumm in the 1st Round and has the powerful game that should be well suited to the American hard courts.
Christina McHale is a tough proposition as she begins to improve her game but she has only won consecutive matches on the main tour on 2 occasions this season and was a 2nd Round loser here in Stanford last season.
Maria Sharapova has won 7 matches in a row against Daniela Hantuchova and has been one of the form players on the WTA Tour for around 3 months now. Hantuchova is no easy pass for the top players this season, but I expect Sharapova will eventually have too much for her counterpart and come through.
Double; Ryan Harrison vs Michael Russell and Ernests Gulbis vs Daniel Kosakowski: Ryan Harrison has been in fine form over the last 10 days, reaching the Final in Atlanta and coming from a set behind to beat Richard Berankis in the 1st Round here and is now becoming more comfortable in main tour matches.
Michael Russell is perhaps on the other side of the hill to Harrison now and has lost the last meeting with his young compratiot, a 3 set defeat on the hard courts in Hawaii. The match tonight may also go the distance but I will expect the younger man to get through.
Ernests Gulbis should have too much experience and talent for Daniel Kosakowski, a young UCLA attendee, although it can be risky backing the talented Latvian at a short price.
However, he should have the consistency to get through, most likely in straight sets.
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games vs Yen-Hsun Lu: Marcos Baghdatis has not had the best time on the American hard courts so far this season with two 1st Round losses at Miami and Indian Wells, but last Summer was a different story as he got through to the Final in Washington and the Semi Final in Cincinnati.
He has the game very suited to the faster surfaces and he has played well in recent weeks. He should have too much for Yen-Hsun Lu, a player that has struggled a little bit this season.
Lu was destroyed by John Isner last week in Atlanta and, although having a good win over Robby Ginepri in the last Round, he has struggled for most of the season.
Baghdatis has won their only previous meeting in 2009, but I think Lu has slipped a little since then and the Cypriot should be good enough to come through.
James Blake-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 20.5 games: Juan Martin Del Potro is my outright pick of the week from this tournament but he wont have it easy against a rejuvenated James Blake that performed solidly in Atlanta last week following on from a Challenger tour win.
Blake and Del Potro also took part in a 5 set match in Australia last year and this is a pick that can be brought in with a straight sets win as long as the sets are tight.
They key to the pick may well be how James Blake serves- if he can perform as he has been, it is possible that we can see at least 1 tie break here and that may be just enough to ensure the over comes in.
MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova and Maria Sharapova @ 1.96 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison and Ernests Gulbis @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
James Blake-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 20.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE UMAG/GSTAAD: - 1.94 Units
WEEKLY UPDATE STANFORD/LA: - 6 Units
I took the morning in Europe off as I didn't have any strong feelings from the matches at Gstaad, while I left Juan Carlos Ferrero alone in Umag in the hope my outright pick can win his match with Ivan Ljubicic and really open up the draw for a run to the Final for a 3rd consecutive year.
Hopefully the extra time to compose myself will make the next couple of picks from Stanford and LA end in a much more positive manner than they have been so far:
Double; Dominika Cibulkova vs Christina McHale and Maria Sharapova vs Daniela Hantuchova: Dominika Cibulkova is having a good season and could see herself making a real move up the rankings after a very disappointing Summer last season. She had a solid win over Kimiko Date-Krumm in the 1st Round and has the powerful game that should be well suited to the American hard courts.
Christina McHale is a tough proposition as she begins to improve her game but she has only won consecutive matches on the main tour on 2 occasions this season and was a 2nd Round loser here in Stanford last season.
Maria Sharapova has won 7 matches in a row against Daniela Hantuchova and has been one of the form players on the WTA Tour for around 3 months now. Hantuchova is no easy pass for the top players this season, but I expect Sharapova will eventually have too much for her counterpart and come through.
Double; Ryan Harrison vs Michael Russell and Ernests Gulbis vs Daniel Kosakowski: Ryan Harrison has been in fine form over the last 10 days, reaching the Final in Atlanta and coming from a set behind to beat Richard Berankis in the 1st Round here and is now becoming more comfortable in main tour matches.
Michael Russell is perhaps on the other side of the hill to Harrison now and has lost the last meeting with his young compratiot, a 3 set defeat on the hard courts in Hawaii. The match tonight may also go the distance but I will expect the younger man to get through.
Ernests Gulbis should have too much experience and talent for Daniel Kosakowski, a young UCLA attendee, although it can be risky backing the talented Latvian at a short price.
However, he should have the consistency to get through, most likely in straight sets.
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games vs Yen-Hsun Lu: Marcos Baghdatis has not had the best time on the American hard courts so far this season with two 1st Round losses at Miami and Indian Wells, but last Summer was a different story as he got through to the Final in Washington and the Semi Final in Cincinnati.
He has the game very suited to the faster surfaces and he has played well in recent weeks. He should have too much for Yen-Hsun Lu, a player that has struggled a little bit this season.
Lu was destroyed by John Isner last week in Atlanta and, although having a good win over Robby Ginepri in the last Round, he has struggled for most of the season.
Baghdatis has won their only previous meeting in 2009, but I think Lu has slipped a little since then and the Cypriot should be good enough to come through.
James Blake-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 20.5 games: Juan Martin Del Potro is my outright pick of the week from this tournament but he wont have it easy against a rejuvenated James Blake that performed solidly in Atlanta last week following on from a Challenger tour win.
Blake and Del Potro also took part in a 5 set match in Australia last year and this is a pick that can be brought in with a straight sets win as long as the sets are tight.
They key to the pick may well be how James Blake serves- if he can perform as he has been, it is possible that we can see at least 1 tie break here and that may be just enough to ensure the over comes in.
MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova and Maria Sharapova @ 1.96 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison and Ernests Gulbis @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
James Blake-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 20.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE UMAG/GSTAAD: - 1.94 Units
WEEKLY UPDATE STANFORD/LA: - 6 Units
Tuesday, 26 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 26th Stanford and LA
Not a good start to the week as Somdev Devvarman somehow managed to lose in straight sets to Ryan Sweeting in perhaps the worst match I have seen since watching a couple of old guys go at it in the local park.
Neither player deserved to win the match and it was just a huge error-fest.
It didnt get much better as my first outright pick, albeit the one with the lowest stakes attached, went out last night as Dmitry Tursunov fell in 3 sets to Michael Russell.
Hopefully today will bring a brighter set of fortunes:
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games vs Ayumi Morita: Both of these ladies will be playing their first match since Wimbledon, but Ivanovic has to be favoured to come through the contest thanks to a much stronger hard court pedigree.
The former World Number 1 has reached the 4th Round in Miami this year as well as the Quarter Final in Indian Wells and her power game may just be too much for Morita here.
Morita has reached a Quarter Final on the hard courts this season, but was beaten comfortably here in Stanford last year by Victoria Azarenka and she has had early exits in the bigger events on the hard courts.
Ivanovic has thumped Morita in their only previous meeting and I think she will come through 6-2, 6-4 tonight.
Double; Tim Smyczek vs Daniel Kosakowski and James Blake vs Michael Berrer: This is a double from the LA Open and I think both favourites should be good enough to come through their matches.
Tim Smyczek faces a young prospect that currently attends UCLA that should get plenty of support from the locals in his first ever main ATP match. The experience of Smyczek should see him through the contest, especially considering he beat Kosakowski in a qualifying round at Indian Wells earlier this season.
James Blake has been playing well of late and was unfortunate to lose to John Isner in 3 tight sets last week in Atlanta. He faces Michael Berrer, a player with a decent serve but fairly limited otherwise and I would expect the American to move on to a big 2nd Round match with Juan Martin Del Potro.
MY PICKS: Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Double; Tim Smyczek and James Blake @ 1.89 Pinnacle (2 Units)
EEKLY UPDATE: - 2 Units
Neither player deserved to win the match and it was just a huge error-fest.
It didnt get much better as my first outright pick, albeit the one with the lowest stakes attached, went out last night as Dmitry Tursunov fell in 3 sets to Michael Russell.
Hopefully today will bring a brighter set of fortunes:
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games vs Ayumi Morita: Both of these ladies will be playing their first match since Wimbledon, but Ivanovic has to be favoured to come through the contest thanks to a much stronger hard court pedigree.
The former World Number 1 has reached the 4th Round in Miami this year as well as the Quarter Final in Indian Wells and her power game may just be too much for Morita here.
Morita has reached a Quarter Final on the hard courts this season, but was beaten comfortably here in Stanford last year by Victoria Azarenka and she has had early exits in the bigger events on the hard courts.
Ivanovic has thumped Morita in their only previous meeting and I think she will come through 6-2, 6-4 tonight.
Double; Tim Smyczek vs Daniel Kosakowski and James Blake vs Michael Berrer: This is a double from the LA Open and I think both favourites should be good enough to come through their matches.
Tim Smyczek faces a young prospect that currently attends UCLA that should get plenty of support from the locals in his first ever main ATP match. The experience of Smyczek should see him through the contest, especially considering he beat Kosakowski in a qualifying round at Indian Wells earlier this season.
James Blake has been playing well of late and was unfortunate to lose to John Isner in 3 tight sets last week in Atlanta. He faces Michael Berrer, a player with a decent serve but fairly limited otherwise and I would expect the American to move on to a big 2nd Round match with Juan Martin Del Potro.
MY PICKS: Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Double; Tim Smyczek and James Blake @ 1.89 Pinnacle (2 Units)
EEKLY UPDATE: - 2 Units
Monday, 18 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 18th
After a very disappointing week all round last week, I am hoping for a little more luck and hope to get back into making profits.
Monday is usually the most quiet day of the week in these tournaments and this week is no difference. However that does not mean there are no picks to be made, so lets get on with the show:
Double; Potito Starace vs Lukas Rosol and Pere Riba vs Tobias Kamke: Lets get things clear straight away, neither one of the players I have backed in this double are exactly the most trustworthy players on the ATP.
In saying that, I do expect both will be good enough to come through the tests standing in their way on the opening day at Hamburg.
Lukas Rosol does the majority of his best work on the clay courts, but the majority of his success will be on the Challenger tour and when qualifying for events rather than in the main draw. Rosol did reach the 3rd Round of the French Open this year, and has won 2 Challenger tournaments on this surface this season.
The Czech player was beaten in the final round of qualifying here but got into the draw as a 'Lucky Loser' and these players can be dangerous.
Potito Starace should be good enough to come through this match as he is definitely the more experienced clay court player and had a couple of victories in Sweden last week before running into the hot Robin Soderling.
I actually thought Starace would be priced closer to 1.36 so the 1.5 available looks too good to pass up.
The 2nd part of the double is backing Pere Riba to beat Tobias Kamke. Riba is definitely the more comfortable on clay courts than his opponent and has beaten him on the clay earlier this season. While it is not a good idea to back a player like Riba at odds on, I really believe he will get the better of Kamke on this surface.
Riba has the stronger record on clay in both main tour events and on the Challenger tour and I expect he will come through here.
Gilles Muller vs Alex Bogomolov Jr: I was a little surprised to see Gilles Muller as the underdog in this match considering his serve and overall game is perfectly suited to playing on the hard courts and the faster surfaces in general.
Muller has probably underachieved in his career considering how big he hits the ball and the fact he is a lefty. However, I do like him in this match as he goes up against a player that has not really had the success on the hard courts over the last 3 seasons to justify him being odds on here.
I expect this match will go close to tie breaks in every set, and I just feel Muller's serve is a more reliable than Bogomolov's and that could provide the difference.
I would also not be surprised if this goes the distance, but I think Muller can come through with a win and reach the 2nd Round in Atlanta for the 2nd year in succession.
James Blake vs Ernests Gulbis: This has been priced up as a toss up between these two players, but I think James Blake may have been underestimated slightly.
I had made a decision to never back Blake again last Summer after watching him get dismantled by Denis Istomin, but I was much more impressed with his performance against Marcos Baghdatis at Wimbledon and he comes into this tournament off the back of a win in the Challenger event at Winnetka a couple of weeks ago.
Ernests Gulbis has completely wasted his potential so far in his career and he only seems to get up for the big matches these days. He has been criticised for a lack of effort in his training and 'tanking' away matches. Gulbis has also lost his last 4 matches and has not really played as well on the hard courts in recent seasons as his game should allow him.
I just feel Gulbis does not focus on his matches as much as others, and I think James Blake perhaps has more motivation and more recent form to come through.
MY PICKS: Double: Potito Starace and Pere Riba @ 2.48 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gilles Muller @ 2.2 Pinnacle (2 Units)
James Blake @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Monday is usually the most quiet day of the week in these tournaments and this week is no difference. However that does not mean there are no picks to be made, so lets get on with the show:
Double; Potito Starace vs Lukas Rosol and Pere Riba vs Tobias Kamke: Lets get things clear straight away, neither one of the players I have backed in this double are exactly the most trustworthy players on the ATP.
In saying that, I do expect both will be good enough to come through the tests standing in their way on the opening day at Hamburg.
Lukas Rosol does the majority of his best work on the clay courts, but the majority of his success will be on the Challenger tour and when qualifying for events rather than in the main draw. Rosol did reach the 3rd Round of the French Open this year, and has won 2 Challenger tournaments on this surface this season.
The Czech player was beaten in the final round of qualifying here but got into the draw as a 'Lucky Loser' and these players can be dangerous.
Potito Starace should be good enough to come through this match as he is definitely the more experienced clay court player and had a couple of victories in Sweden last week before running into the hot Robin Soderling.
I actually thought Starace would be priced closer to 1.36 so the 1.5 available looks too good to pass up.
The 2nd part of the double is backing Pere Riba to beat Tobias Kamke. Riba is definitely the more comfortable on clay courts than his opponent and has beaten him on the clay earlier this season. While it is not a good idea to back a player like Riba at odds on, I really believe he will get the better of Kamke on this surface.
Riba has the stronger record on clay in both main tour events and on the Challenger tour and I expect he will come through here.
Gilles Muller vs Alex Bogomolov Jr: I was a little surprised to see Gilles Muller as the underdog in this match considering his serve and overall game is perfectly suited to playing on the hard courts and the faster surfaces in general.
Muller has probably underachieved in his career considering how big he hits the ball and the fact he is a lefty. However, I do like him in this match as he goes up against a player that has not really had the success on the hard courts over the last 3 seasons to justify him being odds on here.
I expect this match will go close to tie breaks in every set, and I just feel Muller's serve is a more reliable than Bogomolov's and that could provide the difference.
I would also not be surprised if this goes the distance, but I think Muller can come through with a win and reach the 2nd Round in Atlanta for the 2nd year in succession.
James Blake vs Ernests Gulbis: This has been priced up as a toss up between these two players, but I think James Blake may have been underestimated slightly.
I had made a decision to never back Blake again last Summer after watching him get dismantled by Denis Istomin, but I was much more impressed with his performance against Marcos Baghdatis at Wimbledon and he comes into this tournament off the back of a win in the Challenger event at Winnetka a couple of weeks ago.
Ernests Gulbis has completely wasted his potential so far in his career and he only seems to get up for the big matches these days. He has been criticised for a lack of effort in his training and 'tanking' away matches. Gulbis has also lost his last 4 matches and has not really played as well on the hard courts in recent seasons as his game should allow him.
I just feel Gulbis does not focus on his matches as much as others, and I think James Blake perhaps has more motivation and more recent form to come through.
MY PICKS: Double: Potito Starace and Pere Riba @ 2.48 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gilles Muller @ 2.2 Pinnacle (2 Units)
James Blake @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
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