Boxing Picks 2025- Dave Allen vs Arslanbek Makhmudov (Saturday 11th October)

The only place to start in any Boxing thread has to be about the really sad passing of legend Ricky Hatton.

That term- legend- is bandied about far too casually these days, but Ricky Hatton truly was a legend and he will go down as one of the top British Boxers of any Division. A bonafide World Champion and arguably a pound for pound top tenner at his very best, Ricky Hatton was the People's Champion and that drove huge crowds to want to see him fight.

He might have suffered losses to Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao that haunted him, as Hatton himself spoke about so honestly, but he was a huge part of some monster events and stories about the British drinking Las Vegas dry for the first of those fights will be spoken about for years to come.

The biggest appeal about Ricky Hatton wasn't just the great fighter he was, nor the fact that he was a hugely entertaining fighter, but he was someone that never lost touch with his roots and had time for everyone who wanted to spend some time in his company.

Not many people that reached his levels of fame and fortune keep their feet firmly on the ground, but that was a major reason as to why Ricky Hatton was so beloved.

All of the tributes and the huge amount of fans lining up for his funeral procession underlined Hatton's status and you can only hope that he is at peace and knows how much he meant to so many.

RIP Champ.

There are likely to be plenty of emotions on display in Sheffield on Saturday night when Dave Allen enters the ring- he was friends with Ricky Hatton having suffered through mental anguish of his own and Allen will want to prolong what has been an unexpected late surge in his career.

He has a tough fight as he looks to push onto the elite competition in the Heavyweight Division, while over in Philadelphia, Jaron Ennis begins his path in a new Division after moving up from Welterweight into the Light Middleweight ranks.

It has been almost a month since the big Canelo-Crawford fight out in Las Vegas, but the promoters are promising a fun end to the 2025 calendar year as we enter the final quarter.

There are some decent cards in place, although we have just lost the Sebastian Fundora vs Keith Thurman main event scheduled for the end of October- that has been postponed after Fundora suffered a hand injury, although the card will still run on Amazon Prime.

November has some big shows attached in the middle of the month, but in the coming days, the schedule should really be fattened up, which is only positive news for the fans.

Dave Allen vs Arslanbek Makhmudov

A controversial draw with up and coming Johnny Fisher was quickly put right by Dave Allen in a rematch in May and that has just given his career a late push in a positive direction.

The White Rhino has retired and returned once already and Dave Allen has admitted that he was not always the most focused fighter out there.

This led to some really disappointing performances and Allen looked completely done when failing to come out of the Seventh Round against Frazer Clarke in September 2023. He returned in April 2024 and won a couple of low profile bouts before being given the opportunity to take on Johnny Fisher and Allen's upsetting of the unbeaten fighter has given him a lift.

He looks focused and there is no denying that Dave Allen has gotten into very good shape ahead of this crossroads fight.

A win and Dave Allen may be in line to face someone like Deontay Wilder, but a defeat likely spells the end of any late resurgence and the fighter may be more likely to think about retirement or a potential third fight with Johnny Fisher next year.

Crossroads has to be the situation for Arslanbek Makhmudov who had a big reputation when joining a loaded Saudi card back in December 2023.

A big man with a big punching record saw his reputation collapse as he was Stopped in Four Rounds by Agit Kabayel and Makhmudov has suffered another Stoppage defeat to Guido Vianello since then. It means two losses in four fights and Arslanbek Makhmudov has fought a single Round since August 2024, which has to be a factor.

Dave Allen has been in with some of the top names of recent times in this Division so it is not a fight where he is going to be intimidated by the Boxer standing across the ring.

However, he is under no illusion as to how tough this contest is going to be, especially early when Arslanbek Makhmudov is fresh. Some of the criticism of Dave Allen is that he has little movement and standing in front of a big hitter like Makhmudov could be asking for a whole world of trouble.

In saying that, Dave Allen has to feel the edge is with him if this progresses past the first third of the scheduled Twelve Rounds.

We have seen Arslanbek Makhmudov run out of steam and the body shots clearly had a huge impact on him in his defeat to Agit Kabayel. This has to be something that Allen's team have noticed and it may pay to find a way through the early Rounds and sap some of the energy of the Russian before turning the screw.

The 'away' fighter will not be lacking for motivation with some reports suggesting that Makhmudov would be the leading name for Anthony Joshua's return bout if he is able to beat Dave Allen.

It should mean both are willing to put it all on the line, but the feeling since the fight was made is that Dave Allen is as focused as he has ever been and he will find the reserves to come through with a middle third Stoppage. He will have to weather an early storm, but doing so should see Allen show off a deeper stamina and that may see Arslanbek Makhmudov wilt once again.

There are a couple of decent fights on the undercard that may be worth an interest.

Junaid Boston looked to be rolling early in his career, but was very fortunate to earn a Draw when facing Bilal Fawaz back in January in London.

Even Promoter Eddie Hearn felt his fighter had been beaten, but this feels like a Ben Whittaker kind of situation where an impressive fighter with a huge amount of expectation just was not prepared as well as he should have been.

Ben Whittaker made sure he showed the levels he has when crushing Liam Cameron in the rematch of his own controversial Draw, and Junaid Boston may do the same here. He ran out of steam in the first fight, but a focused Boston can wear down a tough Bilal Fawaz and put a statement down with a late Stoppage.

After giving Shakur Stevenson some Rounds as a late replacement, there is little doubt that Josh Padley's stock has risen and he is now a full-time Boxer.

He had already upset Mark Chamberlain to move onto the Saudi radar and Padley has now aligned with Matchroom as his permanent Promoter.

He will have to prove himself when going in with Reece Bellotti who has found his ceiling, but who has regularly continued to upset the odds as a gatekeeper.

The latter was last out in July when being Stopped by Ryan Garner in the Twelfth Round as Bellotti dropped his British and Commonwealth Titles and the short turnaround is tough.

With a bit more time to prepare, Reece Bellotti may have looked a really appealing price, but the likelihood is that Josh Padley wins that one on the cards.

Over in Philadelphia, the hope of all Boxing fans is that Jaron Ennis can finally get on a run and PROVE that he is one of the best fighters out there.

His talent is undeniable, but three fights since July 2023 cannot be good enough for a 28 year old hitting his peak.

Back in April, Jaron Ennis had a crushing win over Eimantas Stanionis and that is an impressive victory... However, his resume is really not as good as it could be and the move into the Light Middleweight Division offers a chance to really become a household name in American Boxing.

This is a loaded Division with some really fun looking fights that could be made- most will think about finally seeing Ennis and Vergil Ortiz Jr go at it, but the likes of Sebastian Fundora, Bakhram Murtazaliev and Xander Zayas could all help Jaron Ennis turn into an elite pound for pound name.

Big names are all around the 154 pound Division, but Jaron Ennis will begin with Uisma Lima who has won four in a row since losing to Aaron McKenna.

None of those wins will concern Jaron Ennis and Uisma Lima will have to use the Southpaw stance to see if he can frustrate the home fighter.

Uisma Lima is Ranked in the top ten by three of the governing bodies, but Jaron Ennis needs to show where he is as a fighter and the expectation is that he will break down the 32 year old somewhere in the middle Rounds.

On the undercard, Guido Vianello is looking to get back on track having lost two of his last three fights, although the one victory was against Arslanbek Makhmudov who is headlining in Sheffield, England.

He is up against unbeaten Alexis Barriere, but this is a big step up for the Canadian Heavyweight.

The Italian has been in with fighters who are pushing towards the top of the Heavyweight Division and Vianello can use all of his experience to break down the Southpaw stepping multiple levels.

MY PICKS: Dave Allen to Win Between 5-8 @ 6.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Junaid Boston to Win By KO/TKO @ 6.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Jaron Ennis to Win Between 5-8 @ 2.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Guido Vianello to Win by KO/TKO @ 4.33 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Boxing 2025: 21-59, - 33.67 Units (101 Units Staked, - 33.34% Yield)

College Football Week 7 Picks 2025 (Saturday 11th October)

It has been a season of backdoor covers going against the selections and there were a couple more last week to turn things in a negative direction again.

This has been a poor run, but we are only just reaching the halfway mark of the regular season and so the turnaround can hopefully begin in Week 7 and then build momentum over the coming weeks.

Ohio State Buckeyes @ Illinois Fighting Illini Pick: Things can change so quickly and so dramatically in the world of College Football and that is evidenced by the losses picked up by the Texas Longhorns and Penn State Nittany Lions. The top two pre-season Ranked teams are already unranked, just weeks into the 2025 season, and the plight of both will be a warning to the other top teams around the nation.

Defending Champions Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) earned an opening week win over the Longhorns, although that victory does not look nearly as good now as it felt back in Week 1. Remaining undefeated has pushed the Buckeyes along and they are 2-0 in Big Ten Conference play after securing comfortable wins over the Washington Huskies and Minnesota Golden Gophers.

However, this game in Week 7 might be the toughest the Buckeyes have faced to this point of the campaign as they prepare to travel to the Illinois Fighting Illini (5-1) who are also 2-1 in the Big Ten.

A loss like the one suffered at the Indiana Hoosiers might have irreparably damaged the Illinois season- they were not just beaten in that opening Big Ten game, but they were embarrassed. However, credit has to be given to the players and the Coaching staff that Illinois have been able to bounce back with a home win over the USC Trojans and a road win over Purdue, the former being unbeaten when they faced the Fighting Illini, and another win in Week 7 will certainly have Illinois competing for a place in the College Football Playoff.

You would make the Fighting Illini favourites to win out if they are able to beat Ohio State this week, although the case for the team making the Playoff will be much harder to make if they were to lose to the Buckeyes having already been beaten by Illinois.

That means there is some pressure on Illinois as they look to become the first team to give this Buckeyes Defensive unit some questions to answer.

Through five games, the Ohio State Buckeyes are allowing an average of 5 points per game, while they have held teams to an average of just 215 total Offensive yards.

A couple of key players could be returning for the Fighting Illini on this side of the ball, but it is going to be very tough for the home team to produce consistently with the ball in their hands. The problems begin up front with the Buckeyes Defensive Line clamping down on the run and Illinois have been having issues establishing the run anyway, which suggests all of the pressure will be on Luke Altmyer at Quarter Back.

Luke Altmyer will take confidence from the performances he has put on the board, but throwing against this Buckeyes Secondary has proven to be a real difficulty for anyone attempting to do so. He is likely going to be in third and long spots, which is going to be a problem for an Offensive Line that has struggled in pass protection, and Altmyer is going to be attempting to make plays with said protection breaking down around him against this fierce Ohio State pass rush.

And as mentioned, Altmyer will still be trying to find spaces to exploit against the Ohio State Secondary that have been producing at a high level. Interceptions have not really been racked up by the Buckeyes, but they have stopped drives and that has allowed the team to pull clear for comfortable wins through the five games played.

Minnesota Head Coach PJ Fleck stated you have to 'pick your poison' when facing this Buckeyes team with the ball in hand and it is very difficult to see how Illinois are going to find consistent stops of their own.

Since the Big Ten play started, the Fighting Illini Defensive Line has allowed some huge chunks of yardage to be picked up on the ground and they are going to have issues against the Buckeyes Offensive Line that have opened up huge holes up front. With the team likely to be doing the same on Saturday, Julian Sayin will be kept in a comfortable position to make plays at Quarter Back and he is also targeting elite Receivers.

Over the last three games, teams are averaging over 300 passing yards per game against the Fighting Illini Secondary and so this feels like another comfortable day for Ohio State.

Julian Sayin has thrown 3 Interceptions, but also has 13 Touchdown passes and the Buckeyes should be really well balanced Offensively, which ultimately should lead to a solid win on the day.

These two Big Ten teams have not met since 2017, but the last five Ohio State wins have been by margins of 38, 25, 41, 25 and 30 point margins and the 2025 Buckeyes look capable of taking care of the spread set.

Illinois have been a really good underdog to back under Head Coach Bret Bielema, but they are 1-1 against the spread in that spot this season and the 53 point defeat to the Indiana Hoosiers is the one result that stands out the most.

Being blown out to that level at home is unlikely, but the Fighting Illini may struggle to stop Ohio State whenever the Buckeyes have the ball and that could lead to a big enough win to cover this mark.

Arkansas Razorbacks @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: They have bounced back in the manner that would have been expected after suffering an opening loss of the season, but the Tennessee Volunteers (4-1) cannot afford to look past any opponent right now. There is a huge game on deck against the Alabama Crimson Tide, but this is an incredibly tough Conference and another SEC defeat to the Arkansas Razorbacks (2-3) will be difficult to shake off as far as the Playoff Committee are concerned.

Once again the Georgia Bulldogs have gotten the better of the Volunteers, but they have won two games in a row as favourites and they are set as a solid home favourite ahead of Week 7.

They are facing an Arkansas team coming out of a Bye Week, but Head Coach Sam Pittman has been fired and it is Bobby Petrino who will be Interim Head Coach this week. It has meant a change in the way the Razorbacks prepare, while the team were absolutely embarrassed in a crushing loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in Week 5, which is also a third straight defeat for Arkansas.

Encouragement has to be taken from the fact the Razorbacks had a competitive loss at the Mississippi Rebels in the sole SEC game played, while the Interim Head Coach is very experienced and has made a positive impact with the players.

Bobby Petrino had led Arkansas to back to back double digit seasons before being fired for inappropriate personal conduct back in 2012, and he may see this as an opportunity for redemption having made it clear that he was at fault for mistakes made over a decade ago. His players will also want to back up the Interim and bounce back from a really poor performance against Notre Dame and they could have some Offensive success in this game.

Running the ball effecitvely has been a feature of the Razorbacks all season, although pounding the rock against this Volunteers Defensive Line is a tough challenge. There will still be a feeling that the Razorbacks can have enough success on the ground to at least keep Quarter Back Taylen Green in a position to keep the chains moving and put Tennessee under some pressure.

Taylen Green has been well protected by the Offensive Line, although they will be dealing with a strong Tennessee pass rush, and he will be encouraged by the successes teams have had throwing the ball against this Secondary. Avoiding Interceptions may be challenging, but Green should have strong passing numbers and that at least gives Arkansas a chance to put a competitive performance on the board.

However, the problem has been the other side of the ball with the Razorbacks struggling to stop opponents thanks to an inability to avoid teams finding plenty of Offensive balance.

Simply put, the Razorbacks neither stop the run nor the pass and that has allowed the better opponents faced to rack up the numbers and ultimately score plenty of points against this team. Arkansas can blame the defeat to the Memphis Tigers in Week 4 because of that inability to stop a team doing what they want and they are unlikely to have much success against this strong Tennessee Offensive unit.

You have to expect the Volunteers Offensive Line to establish the run and they could rip off some big gains on the ground, which only makes life very comfortable for Joey Aguilar when he is asked to drop back to throw. With very little push up front, Aguilar is likely to have a clean pocket and he should be able to make this Arkansas Secondary pay whenever he wants.

That balance is going to make it very tough to stop Tennessee from piling up the yards and ultimately the points and the home team may be able to create a turnover or two in order to cover this spread. They do have Alabama on deck, which could allow a backdoor cover, but Tennessee were upset by Arkansas in 2024 and that will not be far from the mind of the players or the Coaching staff.

Respect has to be given to Arkansas for pushing Ole Miss in a road loss and they have the capabilities of scoring plenty of points too, but those potential extra possessions is where Tennessee can eventually pull away for a win by a couple of Touchdowns.

Florida Gators @ Texas A&M Aggies Pick: Two weeks ago, the Texas A&M Aggies (5-0) may have allowed the Auburn Tigers to hang around, but ultimately the Aggies picked up another SEC win. They are now 2-0 in the Conference and it was a game that was dominated by Texas A&M with the scoreline nowhere near a reflection of the performance.

They will need to do a bit more in College Station in Week 7 as the Aggies look to remain unbeaten against a Florida Gators (2-3) team that just upset the Texas Longhorns. That has pulled the Gators back up to 1-1 in the SEC and cooled the increasingly hot seat upon which Head Coach Billy Napier has been sitting, although fans may still be demanding something changes at the end of this season.

There are big expectations to be met by the Aggies who have an experienced team, but this is a tough Gators Defensive unit as Arch Manning found out in Week 6.

However, there is a bit more confidence around the Aggies Offensive unit and having a week to prepare for this game will help. Running the ball against the Gators is goign to be challenging, but Quarter Back Marcel Reed will feel that his Offensive Line can offer him the time to throw successfully against this Florida Secondary.

Perhaps more important is the improved performances of this Aggies Defensive unit and they will certainly feel they have the edge over the Gators, even if the road team played better than expected against the Texas Longhorns.

Texas A&M have a Defensive Line that will clamp down on the run and they will feel they can win up front and force DJ Lagway to beat them with his arm.

The Quarter Back showed he can do that in the Week 6 upset, but that was at home and DJ Lagway has been far from consistent when dropping back to throw the ball down the field. He will also likely have to deal with what has been a productive Aggies pass rush and that will make it tough for Lagway to see routes develop to try and exploit what has been a very good Aggies Secondary.

Once that pressure has ramped up, DJ Lagway has been guilty of making some back-breaking turnovers and that could be the case to not only allow Texas A&M to win, but to also cover this mark.

The Aggies were embarrassed when last hosting Florida, but they won by double digits in Gainesville in 2024 and they can earn a redemption for the home loss of 2022 by winning this one by double digits too.

Clemson Tigers @ Boston College Eagles Pick: It is going to take a special set of results over the next few weeks to give the Clemson Tigers (2-3) any chance of returning to the College Football Playoff. The team have to put that aside and instead focus on making sure they are 1-0 every week and see where they land after a miserable start to the season.

They are 1-2 in the ACC, but Clemson won very well at the North Carolina Tar Heels last week, which should give them some momentum.

Next up is another road game when travelling to the Boston College Eagles (1-4) who have a lost all three Conference games. In the main the Eagles have been competitive, but they were blown out by the Pittsburgh Panthers in Week 6 and picking themselves up will not be easy.

Boston College have struggled to run the ball all season and in recent games it has been a big problem.

They are not expected to have a lot of success on the ground and inconsistency in the Quarter Back position has really held the Eagles back. They used three different players in the position in the thumping to the Panthers, but this Clemson Secondary has given up some yards through the air and so Boston College may at least put up a few more points than they managed in Week 6.

Clemson are expected to have a balanced approach to their Offensive play and that is why they have been set as a significant favourite. They should be able to establish the run and Cade Klubnik can impress out of the Quarter Back position with some of the limelight moving away from the Tigers and onto other teams.

This may allow Klubnik to shine a bit more and he should be comfortable in third and manageable spots on the field.

The Tigers are also going up against a Boston College Secondary that have allowed the opposition passing game to thrive and it should give the road team an opportunity to clear this big spread for a second week in a row on the road.

These teams last met here three years ago and Clemson produced a big win.

It is clear that the Tigers are not as good as previous teams that have represented the school, but they should be good enough to beat this struggling Boston College team.

Georgia Bulldogs @ Auburn Tigers Pick: The season opened with three straight wins, but the Auburn Tigers (3-2) return from a Bye Week having suffered consecutive losses and both to SEC rivals. Those losses on the road to Oklahoma Sooners and Texas A&M Aggies have already made the pathway towards the College Football Playoff look unlikely, but Auburn's lingering hopes will be erased completely if they are to drop this game at home.

They are well rested, although Auburn are 1-3 against the spread coming out of a Bye, and the Tigers do have home advantage.

However, they are facing a Georgia Bulldogs (4-1) team who are looking to continue their recovery after the defeat to the Alabama Crimson Tide by securing a second consecutive SEC victory. Last week the Bulldogs beat the Kentucky Wildcats at home and Georgia could be very much back on track to make their way into the College Football Playoff if they can win this game and then beat the currently unbeaten Mississippi Rebels in Week 8.

Playing on the road is never easy, but the Bulldogs outlasted Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville earlier this season and Auburn have not looked very good in the previous two SEC defeats.

As the competition has ramped up, Auburn's Offensive Line have struggled to make an impact in the run game and that has put the team in a difficult position. The Tigers will not be expected to have a lot more success trying to pound the rock against this Georgia Defensive Line and so it will be up to Jackson Arnold to perhaps step up for the home team.

The Quarter Back has looked after the ball, which is all well and good, but Head Coach Hugh Freeze may be looking for Jackson Arnold to perhaps take a few more risks. No one wants to turn the ball over, but Arnold has been pretty safe with his decisions, although that may also be partly down to the pass blocking problems that the Auburn Offensive Line have had.

He should have a bit more time in this one, and the Georgia Secondary have given up some big yards so there is an opportunity for Jackson Arnold. However, the Quarter Back will have to do something he has yet to prove this season and the Bulldogs may still be relatively comfortable with having Arnold try and make plays from third and long spots on the field.

Georgia are not going to be marching up and down the field themselves so playing the field position battle is important.

Much like Auburn, it is going to be a real challenge for the Bulldogs Offensive Line to establish the run and try and take the pressure away from Quarter Back Gunner Stockton. He has shown he can be a dual-threat with five rushing Touchdowns scored, but Stockton has been inconsistent as a passer and that will give Auburn a real feeling of finding a way to earn the upset.

Gunner Stockton has made a few more mistakes in the passing game and turnovers could be crucial in this game- he should have time to make his throws in the pocket though and that will give Stockton a chance to help the Bulldogs move the chains, although doing so with consistency is much harder to believe in.

Despite that, the Bulldogs should still have too much for the hosts who have been dominated by this SEC rival in recent years.

Eight straight wins have been produced by Georgia over Auburn and most have been relatively one-sided.

This one should be more competitive, but the Bulldogs have the talent edge and Auburn have already found Oklahoma and Texas A&M too good for them. The Bulldogs look about as strong as those two SEC teams and Jackson Arnold may not have the confidence to make the plays that Auburn expects from him at crucial moments, which may in turn mean another Touchdown margin of victory for the Georgia Bulldogs in this big Conference game.

MY PICKS: Ohio State Buckeyes - 14.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Tennessee Volunteers - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Texas A&M Aggies - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Clemson Tigers - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Georgia Bulldogs - 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 6: 2-4, - 2.22 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37% Yield)

Week 5: 1-5, - 4.20 Units (6 Units Staked, - 70% Yield)

Week 4: 2-4, - 2.14 Units (6 Units Staked, - 35.67% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, - 0.36 (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)

Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)

College Football Week 7 Picks 2019 (October 11-12)

After a very strong Week 5 of the College Football season, Week 6 was a step back on the season and the worst results of 2019.

That also means the season totals are back in a negative position and Week 7 looks a difficult one to get through. However I have found some selections that fit the bill for me and you can read those below.


I have also updated the totals for 2019 which you can see below too. Any additional Picks from Week 7 of the College Football season will be added to the 'MY PICKS' section below.


Colorado Buffaloes @ Oregon Ducks Pick: It is going to take something special for the Pac-12 to have a representative in the College Football PlayOffs in the post-season, but the best placed of the teams may be the Oregon Ducks. The one defeat to the Auburn Tigers lost some of its power in Week 6 when the Tigers were beaten by the Florida Gators as a favourite, but the Ducks won't be concerned about other results and will give themselves every chance of being invited into the final four if they can run the table and pick up the Pac-12 Championship.

Mario Cristobal will consider this a successful season with or without the College Football PlayOffs spot if he can guide the Oregon Ducks to their first Pac-12 Championship since 2014. The Ducks have not even made the Championship Game since then and they had won a combined eleven games in two seasons prior to Cristobal coming in as Head Coach.

In 2018 Oregon finished with a 9-4 record and a good looking Bowl win over the Michigan State Spartans, but they will be looking for more in 2019 having opened the season at 4-1 which includes a 2-0 Conference record. Last week they were not at their very best in the ten point win over the California Golden Bears, but Oregon will know they are going to be very hard to beat if they can clean up the turnovers and penalties which proved so hard to overcome in that win over California.

Steven Montez will lead the Colorado Buffaloes into Eugene having won his first career start with the team in a road game against the Oregon Ducks. It is something of a surprise to see Colorado at 3-2 for the season, 1-1 in Conference games, but Mel Tucker has had an immediate impact as Head Coach as the Buffaloes look to return to Bowl eligibility for the first time since 2016.

That season Montez and the Buffaloes won in Eugene in a season where Colorado finished 10-4 and Oregon were an awful 4-8. Things have changed since and the Ducks are now one of the favourites in the Pac-12 while the Buffaloes are going to have to upset a few opponents to get in amongst the elite in the Conference.

Steven Montez has been a key to the successes Colorado have had this season and is helping the team average almost 300 passing yards per game. Some of that is down to the fact the Offensive Line has not been able to open any kind of holes for the team to establish the run and I don't think Colorado can expect to have a lot of success in this one against an Oregon Defensive Line that is giving up just 2.9 yards per carry through the season and who have improved that further to 2.2 yards per carry in their last three games.

So it will be up to the Quarter Back to try and move the chains for the Buffaloes and even that might be a challenge for Montez despite the performances he has had so far this season. Laviska Shenault could be missing again which is going to take away a big Receiving threat for Colorado and the Ducks Secondary have been strong with the returning starters from last season stepping up their play, while the pass rush up front has been crashing home more often than not.

Moving the ball should be a lot more comfortable for Oregon this week having faced an under-rated California Defense in Week 6. It is very important that CJ Verdell looks like he will be ready to go at Running Back for the Ducks because he helps provide a real balance to the Offensive unit which makes them very difficult to stop.

This Buffaloes Defensive unit is a work in progress and I really don't like their chances much in this one. Verdell should help establish the run for the Ducks against a Colorado Defensive Line giving up 160 yards per game at 4.5 yards per carry in their last three games and that is going to make life a little more comfortable for Justin Herbert to showcase his talent.

Herbert has 15 Touchdown passes with a single Interception for the season and he should have his own way with the Colorado Secondary that will be dealing with third and short situations for the Ducks. The Buffaloes have not been able to clamp down on the run and that has led to some big mistakes in the Secondary which has allowed over 300 passing yards per games in their last three.

It should mean Justin Herbert has another big game and even the Week 8 clash with the Washington Huskies should not be a distraction as Oregon look to pull clear in the Pac-12 North. The Colorado Buffaloes did win here on their last visit in 2016, but Oregon won't need much reminding of that as I expect the Ducks to just be a little too productive Offensively which can help produce a statement win on Friday night in Week 7.


Texas Longhorns v Oklahoma Sooners Pick: These two teams look to be the best in the Big 12 so it would not be a massive surprise if the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns are playing for the first of two times in 2019 like they did in 2018. Last year the Longhorns won the Red River Rivalry game in the regular season for the first time since 2015, but the Sooners got their ultimate revenge by winning the Big 12 Championship Game in the rematch and also earning a berth in the College Football PlayOff.

This year the Sooners head to Dallas with a 5-0 record, while the Texas Longhorns are 4-1. However the Longhorns were only narrowly beaten by the LSU Tigers, a defeat that gets better in each passing week the Tigers are unbeaten in the SEC, and so the winner of this game will believe they can go on and win the Big 12 Championship as well as getting into the College Football PlayOffs final four.

Neither Tom Herman nor Lincoln Riley will be looking beyond this big game though which is going to be given the early slot coverage on Saturday. For most this is going to be the biggest game of Week 7 of the 2019 College Football season and there is plenty to like about the chances of both teams.

Recent games between the Longhorns and Sooners have been very tight, competitive affairs and this has the makings of being another, although it might follow on from their regular season game from 2018 which produced a record number of points for this rivalry.

Jalen Hurts and the Oklahoma Offensive unit have been something of a juggernaut early in the season, although they have not exactly been faced with the toughest of Defensive units in wins over Houston, South Dakota, UCLA, Texas Tech and Kansas. This might feel a lot different for the most part, but an inexperienced Texas Defense is not playing at the kind of level that Tom Herman would have been hoping despite a 4-1 start to the season.

The Texas Defensive Line is playing well enough to believe they can at least limit the impact the Sooners can have when they run the ball. To completely clamp down on the run against a team creating holes up front for an average of 7.3 yards per carry is going to be very difficult though and I do think the Sooners will have enough success on the ground to really keep things very open for Jalen Hurts and the pass.

Jalen Hurts has been very good since coming in from the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Sooners are averaging over 350 passing yards per game. The Quarter Back is well protected by the Oklahoma Offensive Line and it has to be said that Texas have struggled for a consistent pass rush which has left the Secondary more exposed than I would have imagined at the start of the season.

There have been a few signs of improvement in the Secondary play, but Texas are allowing over 300 passing yards per game on the season and I am struggling to see how they are going to slow down the Sooners.

Instead of that the Longhorns best bet might be to make sure they are scoring Touchdowns whenever they have the ball and avoid the turnovers which are likely going to be key in turning this game one way or the other. Keaontay Ingram had to come out injured in the win over West Virginia in Week 6, but the Texas Longhorns should have their best Running Back available as they look to sustain drives on the ground.

Texas should have some success doing that but the Sooners have a strong Defensive Line which is really beginning to show their teeth up front. Oklahoma have given up 4.3 yards per carry on the season, but they have improved that number to 4.1 yards per carry in their last three as the competition is beginning to ramp up and I do think the Sooners Defensive Line can force Sam Ehlinger to have to rely on his arm to make sure the Longhorns are not being forced off the field.

In recent years Sam Ehlinger has saved some of his biggest performances for the Red River Rivalry, but this looks the best Oklahoma Defensive unit he has faced. The Sooners are giving up less than 200 passing yards per game through the air despite forcing teams into throwing positions by building big leads and they are on course for their best Defensive season in a long time.

I do think Ehlinger will have his moments as he is very comfortable in the system and has saved his best Quarter Back performances for this game. However it will be difficult to find balance against the Sooners Defense and I think that is going to see Oklahoma win the Red River Rivalry by the biggest margin in the regular season since Texas beat the Sooners by 16 points in 2013. The year before that the Sooners blew out the Longhorns by 42 points and I do think Oklahoma look the better all around team this time.

Last year the Big 12 Championship Game was decided by 12 points in favour of the Sooners and I would not be surprised if they can cover this line in this one having been a 9 point favourite that day. The underdog had a very strong trend in this series before that defeat in the Championship Game and Oklahoma look capable of keeping it going for the favourites.

I have a real respect for the job Tom Herman is doing with Texas as they chase double digit wins in a single season for a second year in a row. He has made them a very competitive team on neutral fields and the Longhorns are 4-2 against the spread as the underdog under his watch.

However this Oklahoma team look capable of surpassing the 12 wins Lincoln Riley has overseen in each of the two seasons as Head Coach in Norman and I think they can make a statement in this one.


Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Duke Blue Devils Pick: After spending ten years as the Head Coach of the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Paul Johnson retired at the end of the 2018 season having guided his team to a fifth winning season in eight years. The Yellow Jackets missed out on a Bowl Game at the en of the 2017 season, but were back in the post-season in 2018 as Johnson called time on his career with a 7-6 season under his belt.

The moment Georgia Tech decided they would change direction with the Football program and hire Geoff Collins as the Head Coach it was always expected that 2019 would be a massive learning curve. The team were now going to play in a pro-style Offense rather than the triple-option favoured by Johnson and it has been as difficult as advertised with the Yellow Jackets at 1-4.

That run includes a surprising defeat to The Citadel and the Yellow Jackets have been blown out in back to back games as they have dropped to 0-2 in Conference play. Now they travel to the Duke Blue Devils who were dropped by the Pittsburgh Panthers in Week 6 to fall to 1-1 within the Conference, but who are 3-2 on the season and playing with a lot more confidence in the system being run by David Cutcliffe.

Duke will know the defeat to Pittsburgh should have been avoided having taken the lead only to lose the game with 38 seconds left in the Fourth Quarter. David Cutcliffe and the players will be looking for an immediate bounce back ahead of back to back road games in Virginia and North Carolina and I do think the Blue Devils have all the tools to do that.

Quentin Harris struggled at Quarter Back for Duke last week having been responsible for five turnovers and Cutcliffe will have spent a week with his starter to get him refocused. Harris is a dual-threat Quarter Back and it is his legs which may be most effective against the Yellow Jackets Defensive Line that has given up chunk plays on the ground.

Harris along with Deon Jackson should have strong runs on the ground which will in turn open up the passing lanes for the Quarter Back. He has thrown 11 Touchdown passes in the last four games since the blow out at the hands of the Alabama Crimson Tide and playing in third and short situations should be music to the ears of Quentin Harris as he looks for a much better performance in Week 7 compared with Week 6.

I do have to credit Georgia Tech for showing a little more when defending the pass and they have been able to turn the ball over. However some of that has to do with the fact that the Yellow Jackets have not been able to contain the run and it may be difficult to put the clamps on Duke on Saturday.

As I have mentioned the move to the pro Offense has been a difficult transition for a group of players who were signed to turn the triple option. Georgia Tech have been pretty effective at establishing the run, but this week they are facing a Duke Defensive Line that has restricted teams to 3.5 yards per carry on the season and just 3.1 yards per carry over their last three games.

This has followed on from the early performances in 2018 before injuries affected the Defensive Line and so the Blue Devils will believe they can put the clamps on Jordan Mason and company and force Georgia Tech into playing from the unfamiliar position of throwing the ball.

In 2019 that has been a real problem for Georgia Tech as they average less than 140 passing yards per game through the air despite the shift in culture. The second half against North Carolina will be encouraging to Head Coach Collins, although young Quarter Back James Graham is facing a tough Duke Defensive unit which can find Interceptions from a strong pass rush that should be able to rattle the Georgia Tech Quarter Back.

Geoff Collins accepts this is what it is going to take to make sure the Yellow Jackets are prepared in years to come, but it also makes it very difficult for them to be competitive at this moment in time. They have not covered in their last eight games going back to last season and three of their four losses in 2019 have come by at least 16 points.

They are also 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games as a double digit underdog and have failed to cover in their last five against Duke.

Duke don't have that many appealing trends, but they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven off a loss and I will look for the home team to pull away for the win in Week 7.


Penn State Nittany Lions @ Iowa Hawkeyes Pick: Ten yards was all the Michigan Wolverines had more than the Iowa Hawkeyes in Week 6, but that was enough to knock the Hawkeyes from the ranks of the unbeaten. They will be looking to get back on track in the Big Ten West in Week 7, but the Iowa Hawkeyes could have asked for a better opponent than this one.

This week another of the top teams from the Big Ten East are in front of the Hawkeyes when the unbeaten Penn State Nittany Lions arrive in town. Penn State have dominated their last couple of opponents in Conference play and a win on Saturday will mean they move alongside the Ohio State Buckeyes at 3-0 within the Division.

In another season the Hawkeyes would also be unbeaten as they did come very close to edging out the Michigan Wolverines last week. However Iowa rode their luck in a win over rivals Iowa State Cyclones and they are going to need to find some Offensive answers if they are going to get the better of the Nittany Lions.

The first port of call for the Hawkeyes is to ease some of the pressure that is on the shoulders of Nate Stanley who struggled badly in the defeat to Michigan. The Quarter Back is well respected, but Iowa are built to run the ball effectively first of all and that eases the pressure on Stanley to have to drop back in third and long situations.

Last week the Hawkeyes had a total of ONE rushing yard in the loss to the Wolverines which is a real disappointment when you think at least three players have 200 rushing yards for the season. I would have expected them to have some success up front against the Michigan Defensive Line, but those struggles have to be a real concern when you see how strong the Penn State Defensive Line has been all season.

With that in mind it is hard to imagine Iowa getting on track on the ground and that means Nate Stanley has to find a way to get going. The Offensive Line didn't just struggle to open rushing holes last week, but they did not protect the Quarter Back and that is going to be a real issue with the pass rush that the Nittany Lions have generated.

Nate Stanley had an awful day in the office against the Nittany Lions last year and I think it might be another difficult day for him on Saturday. That will leave the Iowa Defensive unit having to step up as they did for the majority of the game with Michigan, but I think the Nittany Lions have a more consistent Offensive presence which can make the difference for them on the day.

As the competition has ramped up, the Iowa Hawkeyes Defensive unit has remained largely untroubled, but one that will be tested by the Nittany Lions. They might not have the stand out Running Back like recent seasons, but Penn State have found some consistency behind this Offensive Line no matter who gets the rock and I do think they can rip off a couple of big runs.

The difference between the last two games might be the fact that Iowa will have to respect the ability of Sean Clifford at Quarter Back. Clifford has been well protected and used his time effectively to help the Nittany Lions average more than 300 passing yards per game over the course of 2019 and he has not stepped off as the competition has increased moving into Conference play.

This is the biggest test Sean Clifford will have faced in the 2019 season, but there are one or two holes in the Iowa Secondary and the balance of the Offense should also aid the Quarter Back here. Sean Clifford has looked after the ball very well and I think that is going to be key to helping Penn State secure a big road win and put themselves in a strong position to challenge for a Big Ten Championship Game.

Penn State don't have a great recent history here, but they have won their last two here outright. They are also 8-4 against the spread as a road favourite and I will back the Nittany Lions to show enough in the trenches on both sides of the ball which allows them to win this game.


USC Trojans @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: A sole loss to the Georgia Bulldogs won't be too bad for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish when it comes to the final College Football PlayOff Rankings, especially if they can run the table. However they will still need some help from the Bulldogs and other teams in the Power 5 Conferences to be invited back into the PlayOffs especially without a Championship Game to be played.

If the Bulldogs went on and won the SEC Championship and the Fighting Irish win every other game I do think they will have an argument to get back into the PlayOffs having made it in 2018. It would likely need a couple of teams dropping games rather than being unbeaten Conference Champions, but there would be a real case for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

They are not really helped by a manageable schedule, especially now the Michigan Wolverines have already been beaten this season. That means the Fighting Irish can't afford to overlook any opponent and give themselves the best chance of finishing with an 11-1 record in the regular season at the very least.

In Week 7 Notre Dame take on the USC Trojans before entering their second and final Bye Week of the 2019 season. Clay Helton came into the regular season on the hot seat for the Trojans having guided them to their first losing season since 2000 and the pressure is back on the Head Coach whose team are 3-2 and with a Conference loss to the Washington Huskies two weeks ago.

USC are coming off a Bye Week which has given them the chance to get Kedon Slovis back to full health and he is set to start at Quarter Back. Losing JT Daniels was a blow to the Trojans, but Slovis has shown his quality in his appearances this season.

This is a different kind of challenge for him though and even the top performance in the win over the Utah Utes may not be enough for Kedon Slovis and the Trojans as they look for an upset in South Bend. The first point of call for the Trojans has to be to try and pick up from where they left on the defeat to the Huskies two weeks ago when they did run the ball very well and much better than they have managed in the 2019 season so far.

The leading rusher is expected to miss out which is a problem and the Notre Dame Defensive Line has been stout up front. It is a key component of how this side of the ball will go as the Fighting Irish look to clamp down on the run and see if they can keep the Trojans in third and long spots throughout the game.

In that position you would have to give the Notre Dame Secondary a lot higher chance of winning the turnover battle with Interceptions something of an issue for the Trojans whoever they have started at Quarter Back. The Fighting Irish have played the pass well for much of the season too and so it could be tough for Kedon Slovis to have a big game and certainly gives the home team the chance of winning this one with a comfortable margin in hand.

Moving the ball could be something of an issue for the Trojans, but it doesn't feel like being the case for Notre Dame. Tony Jones has been effective at helping Notre Dame establish the run, but the boost could come from the return of Jafar Armstrong who was pegged as the starting Running Back for Notre Dame before the season started.

Both Jones and Armstrong should have a good day running the ball against the USC Defensive Line which has given up 4.5 yards per carry on the season and 175 yards per game on the ground. Those numbers have worsened as the Trojans have taken a step up in terms of competition and being able to run the ball just eases the pressure on Quarter Back Ian Book who is having a good season.

Ian Book has 13 Touchdown passes with just 2 Interceptions and he has yet to throw a pick in a game against any team other than the Georgia Bulldogs. The Quarter Back had over 2600 passing yards last season and it does feel like Book can surpass those numbers.

He might not need a massive game statistically to make sure Notre Dame can put themselves in a position to win this one. If the Fighting Irish are running the ball as they can, Book might just be able to manage the game from third and short spots, although there are holes in the USC Secondary that can be attacked from play-action as the Fighting Irish look to make a statement in this game.

Notre Dame have won three of the last four against the USC Trojans and they have scored at least 41 points in their last two home wins against them. The home team has now covered in six in a row in this series and the favourite is 6-1 against the spread in the last seven in the series too.

The Fighting Irish have some impressive trends behind them, while the USC Trojans are 1-9 against the spread in their last ten non-Conference games. After losing to the Washington Huskies, USC are 1-7 against the spread in their road games as the underdog with Clay Helton as Head Coach.

This is a big number, but I think the Fighting Irish have the superior balance on the Offensive side of the ball and that can see them pull clear in this game.


Louisville Cardinals @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons Pick: Three straight winning seasons under Dave Clawson have come thanks to three straight Bowl wins and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons are very happy with their Head Coach. They have opened this season in stunning fashion with five wins to remain unbeaten, although they are 1-0 within the Conference as they entered their Bye Week at the end of Week 5.

That start has helped the Demon Deacons win seven games in a row, which is a school record, and they are hoping to start 6-0 for the first time since 1944 which would be a remarkable achievement for them. Wake Forest have two big home Conference games in Week 7 and Week 8 before entering their second Bye Week of the 2019 season.

Playing off a Bye Week has not been ideal for Wake Forest who have lost six in a row in that spot which is one annoying factor that Head Coach Clawson will want to erase. They should be focused to take on an opponent with a winning record after the Louisville Cardinals improved to 3-2 in Week 6 thanks to a win over the Boston College Eagles.

It was a big win for Scott Satterfield who is the Head Coach for Louisville in his first season in the job. The victory over Boston College means the Cardinals have started 1-0 within the Conference having lost all eight Conference games last season, although the Head Coach has to make sure his team is focused on this game rather than upcoming one against the National Champions Clemson.

The Cardinals will have to continue with a committee at Quarter Back as Jawon Pass Jr is still expected to miss out, but it did not worry them in the win over the Eagles last week. Evan Conley may get more of the snaps in Week 7 as Micale Cunningham was banged up last week, but the Cardinals will be confident with the performance of the inexperienced Quarter Backs and feel they will give them a chance of the road upset.

It will be a positive for Louisville if they can run the ball too and at least make sure the Quarter Backs are playing from manageable down and distance throughout this game. That might not be very easy against the Wake Forest Defensive Line who have been pretty stout up front throughout the season and that could cause problems despite the heady numbers the Louisville Offense is putting up through the air.

This week they will be facing a Demon Deacons Defensive unit that have managed to find a good enough pass rush to rattle Quarter Backs and over their last three games the Secondary have allowed less than 200 passing yards per game. I do think the Cardinals have shown enough to think they can move the chains in this one, but we could see Wake Forest's Defense step up and make some big plays which can stall drives and force Field Goals rather than giving up Touchdowns.

There are some similarities with the way these two teams will approach this game as Wake Forest will also try and establish the run and then expect Quarter Back Jamie Newman to make some big plays through the air. Newman is 8-1 as a starter for the Demon Deacons and he has helped the team produce over 300 passing yards per game.

Now Newman will be throwing into a Louisville Secondary which has shown there are a few more holes to exploit as they have stepped up their level of competition. Jamie Newman is well protected too so I do think he can have a very good game and help the Demon Deacons get into a position to win this game and cover the number.

In 2018 the Demon Deacons destroyed the Louisville Cardinals on the ground in a dominant road win, but that might not come so easy this time around. The Cardinals Defensive Line has allowed just 4.1 yards per carry on the season, but Wake Forest will feel they can keep Newman in third and manageable spots which is where he should be able to produce a big game.

Wake Forest are 6-3 against the spread in their last nine games as the home favourite and they have covered in each of the last five in this series. You do have to be concerned by the lack of success Wake Forest have had coming out of their Bye Weeks in the last few seasons, but Louisville have not covered in their last eight Conference games and I am going to back the home team to win and clear the number. 

MY PICKS: Oregon Ducks - 21.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Duke Blue Devils - 17 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Penn State Nittany Lions - 3 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons - 7 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Week 6: 2-5, - 3.18 Units (7 Units Staked, - 45.42% Yield)
Week 5: 6-1, + 4.40 Units (7 Units Staked, + 62.86% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.18 Units (8 Units Staked, - 27.25% Yield)
Week 2: 5-7, - 2.57 Units (12 Units Staked, - 21.42% Yield)
Week 1: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)


Season 2019: 22-22, - 2.13 Units (44 Units Staked, - 4.84% Yield)

NFL Week 6 Picks 2018 (October 11-15)

The 2018 NFL season has been a good one through the first quarter of the season, but I haven't been spending time patting myself on the back.

Even if I had been the Week 5 I have just suffered through will be a reminder that things can change quickly in the NFL and I am pretty disappointed with my selections to be perfectly frank.

I would love to say I was simply unfortunate, but that would make it difficult to grow from the Picks I made and make sure I am not allowing a loose criteria to be hit.

With that in mind I am expecting much better as we move into Week 6 when the first of the three consecutive London Games are played. This was supposed to be the week when Tottenham Hotspur hosted their first NFL game, but a delay in the Stadium opening means the Oakland-Seattle game has shifted back to Wembley Stadium.

At least the teams' plans won't have been affected too much with the location very similar and so hotels and events booked can still take place as expected. Both teams are coming over from the West coast and it will be interesting to hear what players and Coaches think about the drastic shift in time zone especially with the belief the NFL are still pushing for a franchise to land in London within the next five years.

I have been pretty opposed to that idea for some time, but the NFL continues to try and expand its boundaries in an era when so many feel the sport is one that may not be around for the long-term with all the new rules and a better scientific idea as to what players are going through to entertain the fans.


Week 6 begins with a NFC East Divisional Game on Thursday Night Football and the selection for the Sunday/Monday games will be coming out later this week. The NFL Week 6 post will be the 'Featured Post' this week and I will put out a link on Twitter once the full selections for the week have been made.


Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants Pick: In recent years the NFC East was considered one of the stronger Divisions in the NFL, but that has not been the case in the opening five weeks of the 2018 NFL season. The Washington Redskins loss to the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football means none of the teams in the NFC East have a winning record going into Week 6 and two of those teams scratching to get back up to 0.500 will be playing on Thursday Night Football.

It has been a much more difficult season for the New York Giants to this point with the questions surrounding Eli Manning's suitability at Quarter Back being raised by the Gotham media on a weekly basis. Odell Beckham Jr's comments ahead of the Carolina game in Week 5 hasn't helped Manning's position and it does feel like this is going to be a lost season for the Giants who were undone in Carolina by a 60 plus yard Field Goal as time ran out.

The defending Champions Philadelphia Eagles have been erratic since winning the Super Bowl and a home loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday means they are 2-3, but only 0.5 games out of the Division lead. There still looks to be enough talent to think the Eagles are going to be the team to come out of the NFC East, but they have to play with a little more care as mistakes continue to put them in a difficult position within games.

Jay Ajayi was traded from the Miami Dolphins twelve months ago, but the Running Back has long had issues with his knees and unfortunately suffered an ACL injury in Week 5 which will rule him out for the season. That is a blow for the Philadelphia Eagles who could potentially go back into the trade market before the deadline at the end of the month, but I do think the Eagles will be able to still make plays on the ground in this game on Thursday Night Football.

With some of the misdirection Philadelphia run on the ground, they should be able to take advantage of a New York Defensive Line who have struggled to stop the run all season. There has been some improvement from the Giants in recent games, but they are still giving up well over 4 yards per carry and I do think Philadelphia will look to establish the ground attack to open things up for Carson Wentz at Quarter Back.

Wentz has played ok, but he was going to have some inconsistent moments off the back of an injury that meant he missed the end of the 2017 season and the start of the 2018 one. He has made some very good plays, but Wentz would love to have some more protection from the Offensive Line which has played erratically, although his numbers through the air are still very good.

In this one Wentz may have a little more time with the Giants struggling for a consistent pass rush, while the Secondary have been torched in the last three games and almost giving up 300 passing yards per game.

I do think the Eagles will move the chains with some consistency throughout this Divisional Game, but the Defensive unit need to pick up their play too. The strength of the Defense is on the Defensive Line where the Eagles will figure they can put the clamps down on Saquon Barkley while also getting some significant pressure on Eli Manning who is playing behind an Offensive Line that needs a lot of fixing.

However I do think the Receivers the Giants will be running out on the field could get loose and it is up to Manning to find them having put up some decent numbers against the Carolina Panthers last week. The Eagles have been susceptible to some big passing plays and I do think the Giants can expose those holes even if Manning is not up the level he was when the team won two Super Bowls.

Picking a winner on the spread looks tough with Philadelphia looking the better team, but laying the full three points on the road is a tough ask in a Divisional Game. The short week has made it a little easier for the 'better' team to win these games, but the number looks like one that this game could easily land on and so my attention turns to the total points line.

That immediately looks short to me, although rain is forecasted in the New Jersey area which may make it tougher for the teams to throw the ball as they would like. However I do think the two Offenses are going to be able to move the chains and make some big plays which can make it easier for the total points to be surpassed, while four of the last five between these Divisional rivals have finished with at least 51 points scored.

The last five games hosted by the Giants have seen plenty of points scored and I do think the Offenses can thrive a little more on the short week compared with the Defensive units who have work to do. The over is 6-0 in games between these teams hosted by the New York Giants and I will look for Thursday Night Football to be a high-scoring game with the most likely winner being the road team.

MY PICKS: New York Giants-Philadelphia Eagles Over 43.5 Games @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 10.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Buffalo Bills + 10 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Carolina Panthers - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns - 1 Point @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons - 3 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars - 3 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Week 5: 1-6, - 10.10 Units (14 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)
Week 4: 5-3-1, + 3.18 Units (18 Units Staked, + 17.67% Yield)
Week 3: 5-5, - 1.42 Units (17 Units Staked, - 8.35% Yield)
Week 2: 6-1, + 9.46 Units (14 Units Staked, + 67.57% Yield)
Week 1: 6-2, + 7.34 Units (16 Units Staked, + 45.88% Yield)

Season 2018: 23-17-1, + 8.46 Units

Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (October 11th)

Wednesday looked to be a pivotal day for the Tennis Picks this week and a strong return of 8-4 means the numbers are in a good place going into the Thursday Third Round matches at the Shanghai Masters.

The WTA tournaments being played this week will set up their own Quarter Final matches for Friday with another busy day across the three tournaments that are running.

I didn't think Thursday would be as busy a day for the Tennis Picks as Wednesday proved to be, but there are a number of matches that have hit my criteria marks and there is only one fewer Pick being made on this day compared with Wednesday.

Hopefully I can have a similarly successful day as yesterday and keep the positive trend going.


Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Alex De Minaur: This is going to be the third match between Alexander Zverev and Alex De Minaur in 2018 and the two young players are both having strong seasons on the Tour. The previous two matches have both been won by Zverev, but the first was a very close match in the Davis Cup that needed all five sets to determine a winner, although the second was won in dominant style by the German in the Washington Final a couple of months ago.

Both players are considered part of the 'Next Gen' of ATP players on the Tour and both will be pleased by their 2018 campaign although I do think Zverev is someway further along in his career than De Minaur.

I have a lot of respect for De Minaur as the Australian has channelled the kind of attitude that his compatriot Lleyton Hewitt used to display on the court. While he doesn't have any really big weapon on the court, De Minaur uses hard work and a solid belief in his own game to win matches and he never knows when he is beaten which makes him dangerous.

Ultimately though he has a gap to bridge to Zverev even if the latter has not been playing as well as he would have liked over the last month. The win over Nikoloz Basilashvili will have given Zverev a lot of confidence though as he broke down the in-form Georgian and I think the bigger serve he possesses compared with De Minaur will put the German in a position to win this one and cover this number.

De Minaur is holding serve at just under 80% of the time on the hard courts and he is going to be faced with a solid returner in this one which should mean he is put under pressure in games where he doesn't find enough first serves going in. The battling nature of the Australian means he won't give up without a fight, but I think Zverev's serve is going to be the key with a few more cheap points meaning he can get through service games with slightly less concern than De Minaur.

It has been a good week for De Minaur with two wins in the books without dropping a set, but this is another step up in class and I will back Zverev to edge him out in both sets of a straight sets win.


Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: When Novak Djokovic was beaten by Marco Cecchinato at the French Open the former World Number 1 made suggestions that he was going to miss the grass court season. He looked to be seriously struggling with his confidence at the time, but Novak Djokovic has since won the two Grand Slam tournaments played at Wimbledon and the US Open and he is the favourite to regain his place at the top of the ATP Tour.

Revenge will be the storyline for the television companies in Shanghai on Thursday, but I don't think Djokovic will be thinking that way and instead is focused on another strong showing at a Masters event.

Marco Cecchinato should have some real belief from his win over Djokovic at the French Open but he is so much better on the clay courts compared with the hard courts which seems to make this more of a mismatch. The Italian had only won two matches on the hard courts on the main ATP Tour before this week, but he has already invested a lot into the tournament and I do wonder how much is left in the tank.

He has won two long matches this week against Gilles Simon and Hyeon Chung and both times Cecchinato has needed a final set tie-breaker which will have taken something away physically and emotionally from him.

The conditions could help the Italian who has a decent first serve, but Novak Djokovic is getting closer and closer to hitting the kind of heights that saw him dominate men's tennis for a couple of years. Djokovic is feeling about as good about his game as he has for a long time and the confidence is back which means I am expecting the Serb to put Cecchinato under pressure with the return of serve.

Cecchinato has simply not been a very good hard court player and some way below the standards that are set by Djokovic. If he serves well Cecchinato could be potentially dangerous, but I think Djokovic makes the running in this match and I will back him to cover a big looking number on paper.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 games v Borna Coric: This is a good looking match in the Third Round of the Shanghai Masters and there is almost a contrast in styles that will be matching up against one another. The Juan Martin Del Potro game plan is to simply play an aggressive brand of tennis behind a monster serve and it is one that should be very effective on the courts in Shanghai.

For Borna Coric the movement and ability to get plenty of balls back in play is going to be key but the young Croatian is making some big strides with his numbers on the hard courts. The return of serve is where Coric has really improved in 2018 on this surface compared to the numbers produced in 2017 and it will be interesting to see if he can get into the Del Potro service games.

Unlike Del Potro, Coric will have had a day to rest which means he is a potential danger to the higher Seeded player. However there is a mental obstacle for Coric to overcome having been crushed by Del Potro at the US Open a couple of months ago and the form of the big man has not really dropped off throughout 2018.

His win over Richard Gasquet in the Second Round was a good one and the strong performances in 2018 has really moved Del Potro into a position where he will feel a Grand Slam title to add to his US Open crown is potentially not too far away. Del Potro finished as Runner Up at the US Open this past few weeks and I think he will be tough to beat in Shanghai with the faster courts likely to suit his game a little more than it does for Coric.

As much as Coric has improved in 2018, I do think he has been having a tough few weeks on the hard courts prior to this week. He was perhaps a little fortunate to get the better of Stan Wawrinka in the First Round here and losses to Cameron Norrie and Feliciano Lopez since the hard courts is not ideal preparation to make Coric believe he can beat someone like Del Potro who reached the Final in Beijing last week.

This is an intriguing number and one that almost feels like a trap, but I do think Del Potro is the stronger player on this surface and I will back him to win and cover the spread.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 10.5 Games First Set @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrea Petkovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Timea Babos - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Shanghai Update: 10-4, + 10.24 Units (28 Units Staked, + 36.57% Yield)