Tennis Picks 2025 (Friday 20th June)

It has been a difficult couple of days for the Tennis Picks, but there is still every chance of ending this week on a positive.

All of the Quarter Final matches are scheduled to be played on Friday and this is the busiest day of the week for the Tennis Picks and one that may just determine whether it is a bounce back seven days for the selections or not.

Leylah Fernandez - 1.5 games v Dayana Yastremska: When this Quarter Final was set and the markets were released, Leylah Fernandez had been set as the underdog, but that is far from the case now.

It felt like the wrong way round considering the previous form these two players have displayed on the grass courts and Leylah Fernandez should have enough to reach the Semi Final in Nottingham.

She is a strange player- once in a while there is a big run, but Fernandez has struggled for consistency over the last twelve months and the 32-26 record highlights that. However, she is still the World Number 30 and the lefty has a decent game for the grass courts, although her best run at Wimbledon is reaching the Third Round last year.

During that summer on this surface, Leylah Fernandez also reached the Quarter Final in Birmingham and Final in Eastbourne, while her loss last week to Tatjana Maria at Queen's Club doesn't look nearly as bad considering the veteran went on to lift the title.

Both wins in Nottingham have been deserved, and Leylah Fernandez looks to be in good shape as she prepares to try and beat Dayana Yastremska for a third time on the pro Tour.

Any player that puts a couple of wins on the board at a tournament will be feeling confident, but Dayana Yastremska has bailed herself out of some tough spots. Continuing to face the Break Points and coming out on top is tough for any professional player and Yastremska is likely going to have to deal with a few more on serve in this Quarter Final.

In recent years Dayana Yastremska has been solid, if unspectacular, on the grass courts and this is a considerable step in terms of level of opponent compared with the Second Round win. Even in the previous two matches, the serve has been a little vulnerable and that should give the Canadian the edge in this Quarter Final and especially with the mental advantage of knowing she has beaten Yastremska twice previously.

Aryna Sabalenka-Elena Rybakina over 22.5 games: Would it surprise anyone if in three weeks time Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina are the last two standing in the Ladies tournament at Wimbledon?

Both players have had plenty of success on the grass and they have all of the weapons needed for another deep run at SW19.

It is Elena Rybakina who has gotten over the line by winning the title at Wimbledon, but the motivation will be very high in the Aryna Sabalenka camp to see their player join her in the winner's enclosure. Both Grand Slam runs have ended in the Final in Melbourne and Paris and the World Number 1 will be desperate to have at least one major title under her belt before heading back to New York City in August.

The one grass court match played underlined Aryna Sabalenka's capabilities on the serve, but it is the return that will be tested.

We can the exact same for Elena Rybakina who has a huge serve for this surface, but who has not been returning as well as she would have liked in her matches on the grass in 2025. The returning numbers can be picked up a little bit, but the Rybakina serve has been important for her and helped the World Number 11 win three of the four matches played on grass this season.

Matches between these players are usually very competitive and this Quarter Final could very much trend in that direction.

All six of the wins produced by Aryna Sabalenka have been in three set matches, while the straight set wins have been earned by Elena Rybakina in three of her four wins in this rivalry. However, only two of the ten matches played between these players has ended with less than 23 games shared out and both have the capabilities of serving well enough to secure at least a set each or, at the very least, push this into two tight, competitive sets that perhaps need at least one tie-breaker.

Jack Draper - 3.5 games v Brandon Nakashima: He made harder work of his win over Alexei Popyrin than anticipated, but Jack Draper did win and there will be a lot of hope and belief that the British Number 1 can enjoy a big two weeks at Wimbledon.

The draw will be key, but Jack Draper is a confident player on the grass and his numbers have been impressive over the last twelve months.

My one concern with backing Draper is that I can't remember being on the right side of too many of his matches, including that Second Round contest a couple of days ago.

He is a capable server and so Jack Draper will believe he can contain the threat of Brandon Nakashima and try and build some scoreboard pressure on the 23 year old American. Much like Draper, Brandon Nakashima has shown he can produce some real quality on the grass courts, although he has perhaps not had the big wins to really boost the confidence on the surface.

The serve can be a potent weapon for Brandon Nakashima too, but Alexander Zverev was able to string enough points together to break him twice in Stuttgart last week. Twelve months ago it was Jack Draper finding the breaks of serve at the same tournament to comfortably progress past Nakashima and the British player has won the last two matches between them on the Tour.

One poor service game let Jack Draper down as far as the handicap was concerned in the Second Round, but he may have a bit more success in this Quarter Final on the return and that could see him cover.

Holger Rune - 3.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: The World Number 9 has only just turned 22 years old and that should mean we have yet to see the very best tennis from Holger Rune.

Last year he reached the Fourth Round at Wimbledon and Holger Rune has shown he has the tennis that is needed to be a successful grass court contender. That run was ended by Novak Djokovic, but Rune may be hoping for better in 2025 with a potentially clearer draw into the Quarter Final and from there his confidence will be in a good place.

Two solid wins have been put together at Queen's to reach the Quarter Final and Holger Rune deserves to be the favourite against veteran Roberto Bautista Agut.

A former top ten Ranked player in his own right, Roberto Bautista Agut has slipped outside the top 50 in the World Rankings and there has been a decline in his performances over the last twelve months. However, the Spaniard is coming into the grass court season still believing he can be competitive on this surface thanks to his experience and previous successes.

He was beaten early in Hertogenbosch, but Roberto Bautista Agut has come through two matches at Queen's in three sets and that does display some confidence.

Of course he is going to have to be better to beat someone like Holger Rune who has won all three of their previous matches on the Tour.

One of those wins came at the French Open last month and Holger Rune looks to be the superior return player of the two, which may be decisive on this surface. Both have been serving well, but the younger player will have more in the tank and that should see the Dane come through with a solid victory to take his place in the Semi Final in West London on Saturday.

Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Alex Michelsen: The United States have always been able to produce very effective grass court tennis players, even if the majority are built up on the hard courts. Movement is the one aspect that is perhaps hardest to understand, but the grass allows the big-serving American players to put plenty of pressure on the opponent.

It feels like 20 year old Alex Michelsen is going to be a solid grass courter in the years ahead having reached the Final in Newport twice in a row and picking up plenty of wins in the warm up tournaments being held in Europe ahead of the third Grand Slam of the season.

He has won two more here in Halle, including upsetting Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Second Round and Alex Michelsen will feel he can frustrate Daniil Medvedev if he is serving as well as he can.

In his relatively short grass court career, Alex Michelsen has won 67% of the points played and that is always going to give him a chance to use the scoreboard to make the opponent feel under pressure. He will feel there is room for improvement when it comes to the return and that will be tested by someone like Daniil Medvedev, especially after producing two solid wins in the main draw.

There was a time when Medvedev did not like playing on this surface, but the last couple of years have been much stronger and his serve can be just as effective as the one that Michelsen will bring onto the court.

Daniil Medvedev is another player who will feel there is more to come from the return, but he has looked better in that aspect this past few days in Halle. He has the capabilities of coming through a tight first set to break the back of the match and Daniil Medvedev can reach the Semi Final with a solid win under his belt.

MY PICKS: Leylah Fernandez - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Aryna Sabalenka- Elena Rybakina Over 22.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Jack Draper - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Holger Rune - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 6-5, - 0.16 Units (11 Units Staked, - 1.45% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 20th)

The final week before any Grand Slam can be a difficult one to negotiate as far as Tennis Picks are concerned and that is largely down to the chance of there being a lack of motivation to have a deep run with a big tournament coming up.

However, the WTA event in Eastbourne is one of the bigger events on the Tour, while the top names are largely absent in the two ATP tournaments being played. That should mean players will be looking to put solid results together to build some confidence, while others know they will not be able to compete at the third Slam of the season and so may not be worried about conserving energy.

It is a week in which I will be keeping an eye on the early results and making sure I am not in the same kind of hole as I found myself last week.

The late bounce back was not completely satisfactory, but it does mean having some momentum to take into what is a very busy week of tennis as the final approach towards Wimbledon is taken.

Ilya Ivashka - 1.5 games v Emil Ruusuvuori: With Wimbledon out of bounds for those representing Russia and Belarus, it might be hard to find the motivation for players from those nations to put in a big week in the final one before the third Grand Slam of the season begins. However, I do think the Ranking points that can be earned should be motivation enough and there are plenty of events to play next month and then in the lead to the US Open to make up for the disappointment of missing the event in South West London that is a week away from getting going.

Players like Ilya Ivashka may not have been a genuine title contender at Wimbledon, but he is close to surpassing his career best World Ranking and has been a pretty solid player on the grass courts.

The serve is a potent weapon for Ilya Ivashka who has held 90% of his service games played on the grass courts over the last couple of weeks. Only Daniil Medvedev has ended his runs in Hertogenbosch and Halle, but Ilya Ivashka is on the opposite side of the draw in Mallorca this week and will be hoping that serve can help him out of difficult spots.

His return numbers have not hit the kind of marks that Ivashka has reached in 2019 and 2021 on the grass courts, but he can be an effective return player.

It was that side of his game that saw Ilya Ivashka beat Emil Ruusuvuori in Hertogenbosch and I am a little surprised the latter has decided to leave England and play in this event in Mallorca rather than playing in Eastbourne. The travel back and forth shouldn't be a major issue, while Emil Ruusuvuori may feel more confident having Qualified for Queens last week and then reaching the Quarter Final.

Emil Ruusuvuori has not really had the time to adjust as he may have liked having played in London on Friday and this match scheduled for Monday, but again I am not expecting that to be a major factor. The Finn has been serving very well on the grass courts and he will be looking to be more efficient with his performance behind that shot compared with how he played against Ivashka in Holland.

However, the head to head has shown that Ilya Ivashka has been more productive on the return of serve compared with Emil Ruusuvuori and that was the bottom line in Hertogenbosch as Ivashka beat this opponent for a fourth time in a row. In those wins, Ilya Ivashka has held 89% of his service games compared with Emil Ruusvuori's 50% mark and the former did not face a break point when these players met a couple of weeks ago.

The run in Queens will give Emil Ruusuvuori more confidence, but it may not be enough to bridge the gap in this match up and I think Ilya Ivashka can win and cover.

MY PICKS: Ilya Ivashka - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tallon Griekspoor-Feliciano Lopez Over 22.5 Games @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Bianca Andreescu - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alison Riske - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Kirsten Flipkens - 0.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Donna Vekic - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Harriet Dart @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Brandon Nakashima - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Sebastian Korda - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jack Draper - 0.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 0.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2019 (June 20th)

I really can't have asked for much more from the last two days of Tennis Picks which have come back with a 15-3 record and one match being voided (while the player I had picked was 6-2, 2-0 ahead).

After a difficult opening week on the grass, this week has turned things right back around and moved this portion of the season back into a profit as we continue surging towards the third Grand Slam of the season at Wimbledon.

Like I said on Wednesday, this is not the time to pat yourself on the back, but instead focus and double down on trying to keep the positive momentum going. I was glad to end the day with another winning record to keep pushing along, but I do expect more from myself as we move into completing the Second Round at the various events being played this week.


The rain in London has not let up as much as the organisers of the Queens tournament would have wanted and that does mean there are still some First Round matches that have to be completed. One of those was my selection from Tuesday picking Stefanos Tsitsipas to beat Kyle Edmund and cover the handicap mark, but those two players will have to complete their match on Thursday and the winner is likely going to have to play again later in the day.

Below you can see my selections from the Second Round matches that are scheduled to be played as we complete the Quarter Final line up for Friday. All of the events should be back on track by then, although I do think the tournament at Queens should swallow their pride and get the matches started at 11am rather than Midday which has been the case so far this week.

It will be fair to those players who need to complete their First Round matches to have some rest before the Second Round match later in the day and will also ensure the tournament is back on track and not affected by any lingering weather in the Barons Court area.

The schedule will be out by the time most read this so we will see, I was just a little disappointed they didn't have the early start on Wednesday which would have got at least one and perhaps two more matches through per court.


Steve Johnson-Alexander Zverev over 22.5 games: This has the making of a really good Second Round match and especially if Alexander Zverev continues to struggle to find the level he is capable of reaching. It has been a difficult couple of months for Zverev who was fortunate to come away with a straight sets win over Robin Haase in the First Round here in Halle after losing to Dustin Brown in his first match in Stuttgart last week.

In this one Zverev is going to have improve again when he takes on Steve Johnson who has proven to be very comfortable on the grass courts. The American had a very good win over Philipp Kohlschreiber as the underdog in the First Round and he has the kind of game that can make life very difficult for Zverev if he is not at his best on the day.

There is no doubt that Johnson is only going to go as far as his serve will carry him even if he has shown improvement on the return side of his game as far as the grass courts are concerned. However we saw in Stuttgart last week that Johnson still needs to get more out of his serve if he is going to have strong runs on this surface.

He has held 85% of his service games, but Johnson has won 63% of points behind serve in his two matches on the surface. That is a few ticks down on the usual level he has found on the grass and it has forced the American to have to dig in on the return, although to be fair to him the last twelve months have seen Johnson produce very well on that side of his game.

I would expect Johnson to test Alexander Zverev who is holding 80% of his service games on the grass courts in 2019. The major worry for the home player is that his break percentage is down on previous years and there has been a slight lack of confidence from Zverev on that side of his game in recent weeks which have led to tougher matches than expected.

As I said in the First Round, I do think Zverev is finding it difficult to win matches easily and I can see both players being just good enough on serve to get into a position to surpass the number of total games. There is every chance of the match needing three sets to separate them, but tie-breakers should be in play and even a long two setter can't be ruled out to help get over the number.


Roger Federer-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga over 22.5 games: A match that could easily be a Final in Halle rather than a Second Round takes place on Thursday and I wanted to write out a few thoughts about.

Roger Federer is one of the greatest grass court players of all time and he comes into his usual Wimbledon warm up off a fantastic Roland Garros. He had a strong win over John Millman in the First Round and the serve is a potent weapon on the surface which is going to make him very tough to beat when it comes to SW19 next month.

However this is a real challenge for Federer when he takes on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who is very comfortable on the grass himself. He has a big first serve which can set him up to get through service games very comfortably and their one previous match on the grass saw Tsonga come from 2-0 down to beat Federer in five sets.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has been producing some very good numbers behind serve and I expect it is going to be a tough match for Federer with a declining return game. There are still those moments Federer puts together which makes it hard to oppose him on the handicap, but I think Tsonga is going to serve big enough to force at least one tie-breaker.

The Frenchman is also someone who can put his returns together even if he is not the most convincing behind that shot. I expect he will have limited success against this Federer serve considering the former World Number has held 87% of service games played against him in their head to heads, but I have enough faith in the Tsonga serve to see him give Federer enough issues and help carry this match over the total games line.


Angelique Kerber - 1.5 games v Maria Sharapova: There was a real statistic attached to Maria Sharapova's First Round win in Mallorca that surprised me and that is that the former World Number 1 had not had a grass court win since 2015. I know injury and suspension has prevented Sharapova from playing a lot of grass court tennis in that time, but even then it was a real shock to read that.

The Russian was very happy with her performance in her win over Viktoria Kuzmova after Sharapova returned to the Tour following a long injury lay off. She has slipped down the World Rankings and you have to feel the next few months are very important for Maria Sharapova who won't want to have to Qualify for the biggest tournaments out there.

She doesn't have a lot of points to defend on the grass this year, but Sharapova will simply be hoping she has got through her First Round match without a negative reaction from the shoulder which has been keeping her off the Tour. The level of opponent goes up significantly in the Second Round in Mallorca too as she faces another former World Number 1 in Angelique Kerber.

The German is also the defending Wimbledon Champion and will be hoping a move from the clay onto the grass is going to reignite her season. This has been a time of the season that Kerber has enjoyed in the past with the extra pop she can get out of the serve and the movement she enjoys on the grass makes her a very difficult opponent to beat.

Angelique Kerber has set some high standards for herself to the point where it does feel her 2019 season has not been as strong as it should have been. She had to battle through the First Round and I do wonder if Kerber is fully healthy at the moment, but I think she is going to be someone who can challenge Sharapova who also has some fitness doubts around her.

In fact Kerber has won their sole previous match on the grass and crushed Sharapova when these two met at the Australian Open eighteen months ago. That should help her mentally, but this is going to be a tough match either way especially if Sharapova is able to perform to the level she did in the First Round.

For a long time the Sharapova first serve has been a huge weapon for her on the grass and she will need to get plenty of those in if she is going to upset Kerber. I do think Sharapova will have her moments, but her match rustiness may show up over the course of the match and I will look for Kerber's strong grass court pedigree to come through.


Venus Williams - 2.5 games v Qiang Wang: It is remarkable to think that Venus Williams turned 39 years old at the beginning of this week and yet still wants to be out there competing on the WTA Tour as she does. While no one is going to be surprised to read that Venus Williams is not the player she once was, her experience and continued success on the grass courts makes her a dangerous opponent on this surface.

The elder of the Williams sisters came through her First Round without too many problems on Wednesday, but playing back to back days gets harder the older you get and that is the challenge for her.

It does have to be noted that Qiang Wang also had to play her First Round match on Wednesday having seen the rain disrupt the tennis in Birmingham on Tuesday. However she is much younger than Venus Williams and her recovery time may be superior at this stage of their careers.

Even then, Venus Williams is the right favourite in this Second Round match. Her grass court pedigree has to be respected and it also has to be said that Wang has yet to show a real affinity with the surface. While having a good win in the First Round, Qiang Wang has struggled with her return on the grass and now she has to face a solid server like Williams on a surface where she may not feel her best.

These two actually met at Wimbledon a couple of years ago and it was Williams who came through after they split two tough sets to start. When you combine their three previous matches, Williams has had the better of the service numbers and I do think that is going to be the difference between them on the day too.

It won't be an easy match for Venus Williams considering how much Qiang Wang can get out of her own serve when at her best. However we have yet to see Wang put it all together on the grass and I think that makes the former Wimbledon Champion the selection to win and cover the number.

MY PICKS: Steve Johnson-Alexander Zverev Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Over 22.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille @ 2.75 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 20-6, + 25.32 Units (52 Units Staked, + 48.69% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 20th)

It was a mixed set of results on Tuesday for the Tennis Picks but it wasn't a completely unimportant day as we are always building data which can help going forward.

What I have realised is I am very unlikely to back Nick Kyrgios or Tomas Berdych again this season.

One player is too emotional for me and you simply don't know how he is going to feel from day to day, while the other is on a decline which is getting more and more rapid. I like Kyrgios but I have long found him a tough player to trust, especially as a favourite, while Berdych's return game has slipped considerably.

I was disappointed with the returns on Tuesday, but at least this week is still in a profitable position and I am looking to add to that on Wednesday. The selections look quite difficult to find on Wednesday as we move into the Second Round at the events being played this week, but I do have a number which can be read below.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 games v Robin Haase: The First Round win over Joao Sousa was a lot harder work for Robin Haase than it perhaps should have been but it was another strong result on the grass courts for the Dutchman. The serve is an effective weapon for Haase and that is his best chance of putting Roberto Bautista Agut under pressure.

Over the last few years Haase has really been tough to break on the grass courts and he has continued that form so far in 2018. He has held serve at 85% or better in four of the last five seasons on the grass courts with 2016 being an exception as that number dropped down to 76%, but the consistency suggests he gets enough pop out of the serve which makes it tough for opponents to get into those games.

The main reason Haase has not produced as many wins as he would have liked is a limited return game and that was almost his downfall against Sousa in the First Round. It was the reason he was beaten in three tight sets by Roberto Bautista Agut earlier this season on the hard courts, although I am backing the Spaniard to win a little more comfortably in this Second Round match.

Bautista Agut may not have the same percentage of holds as Haase on this surface because he simply does not have as big a serve, but he has been very good on that side of his game. The edge goes to Bautista Agut when it comes to returning effectively enough and that helped him crush Jan-Lennard Struff in the First Round after coming through some difficult moments in the first set.

The return has helped his combined hold/break percentage reach at least 100% in the last four seasons and I think Bautista Agut will get the better of Haase in this one. I like the way the latter has played on the grass courts but I think Bautista Agut will put him under more pressure on Haase's own serve and that can see him break him down over the course of this match and cover the number.


Kei Nishikori - 1.5 games v Karen Khachanov: The last couple of years have seen Kei Nishikori's grass court season end with an injury problem both times, but he may be coming into the 2018 campaign as healthy as he has been. Last year's injury came in Halle and it was soon afterwards that Nishikori was out for the rest of the year to recover and there have been signs he is getting back to his best.

Nishikori is perhaps an underrated grass court player simply because he has not racked up the kind of wins he could have done without injury coming in to prevent him doing so. The numbers have remained very good from Nishikori and he was a solid winner in the First Round here which will have given him a chance to get used to the grass underneath the feet.

In 2017 Nishikori was forced to pull out of a match against Karen Khachanov and it is the same opponent standing in his way twelve months later.

There isn't a lot of data on Khachanov on the grass courts having only really begun to play on the surface in 2017, but unlike idol Marat Safin it looks like a surface on which the young Russian will be very comfortable. His win over Mischa Zverev in the First Round has to be given a lot of respect and Khachanov will believe he has the shot making and power to give Nishikori plenty to worry about in this match.

I think that is the case too, but Nishikori's combined hold/break percentage on the grass courts have been very impressive over the years. There is every chance this is going to be a good looking match with both players having their chances, but I think Nishikori's superior return game will prove to be a difference maker at key moments of this match and I do think he is the better grass court player.

At the moment he may be a little underrated on the surface and I will back Nishikori to win and cover the number in a victory.


Stan Wawrinka-Sam Querrey over 24.5 games: The grass courts at Queens Club in West London tend to be some of the faster ones on the ATP Tour and that gives players like Sam Querrey the chance to be very effective on the surface. His overall record on the grass is very good which is not a big surprise considering the serve the American has been blessed with and it will be a key weapon for him in this Second Round match.

Querrey may be 1-5 down in the head to head with Stan Wawrinka, which includes a heavy loss at Queens Club, but it is Querrey who comes in as favourite which says a lot about where Wawrinka is with his comeback from an injury.

Both players defeated lower Ranked British opponents in the First Round and both Wawrinka and Querrey were deserved winners having held serve throughout the match. Both players will understand the opponent they face in the Second Round is likely to get a lot more joy on the return of serve, although I still think serve will be king in this match.

Out of the two players it is Querrey who has shown a little more out of the return on the grass courts in the last couple of years, but Wawrinka is someone who will try and put pressure on Querrey with bunted returns and force the big man to win longer rallies than he is used to.

That has proved to be effective enough in beating Querrey for the majority of their matches against one another, but there are some doubts about the fitness of Wawrinka which can't be ignored. Instead I am looking for a match where both players can put a huge number of holds on the board and I would not be surprised if we needed a third set to decide the winner.

Even a tight two setter has every chance of covering the total games line in this one and I will back the two players to combine for enough games to surpass this line.


Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Gilles Muller: With the courts traditionally playing pretty fast in this are of West London it automatically feels like a big spread for the Number 1 Seed to cover. Marin Cilic may be very comfortable on the grass courts as a former winner here in Queens and also a former Wimbledon Finalist, but he is going to be tested by Gilles Muller who pushed Cilic the distance both at Queens and at Wimbledon in 2017.

The raw numbers from those matches suggest Muller was perhaps a little fortunate to be able to have gotten so close to beating Cilic in both of those events. Any time a player can force a deciding set they will feel they have a chance to win the match, but Cilic will have been disappointed to have lost either when looking the stronger player both times but allowing one poor service game to make life much tougher than it should have been.

One thing that sticks out the most from their matches on the grass in 2017 is that Cilic won a very strong 43% and 45% of return points in those two matches. That is a pretty incredible return against someone like Gilles Muller who has a big left handed serve that has seen him win at least 71% points behind serve in four of the last five years on the grass courts.

His first match in 2018 saw Muller go down to a surprisingly easy defeat to Matthew Ebden and he did have some issues when it came to the serve that day. Playing against Marin Cilic will be a real challenge for Muller because he has the wingspan to get enough balls back in play and force Muller to hit more volleys than he is perhaps comfortable with.

Cilic is even more dangerous when looking at the stellar numbers produced by the Croatian on the grass courts since 2016. He dominated Fernando Verdasco in the First Round and playing a lefty will have given Cilic some idea of what to expect from Muller although the latter has a bigger first serve than Verdasco.

Last year Muller had an exceptional year when it comes to breaking on the grass courts but generally he is someone who has had issues when it comes to the return. If Cilic serves as he did in the First Round I think he can use the scoreboard pressure to find the two breaks of serve he will need to cover this number and I think he is capable of doing that.

Covering is priced up at odds against and I think Cilic can do that with his returning ability on the grass courts and someone who has had considerable success against the Muller serve.


Naomi Osaka - 4.5 games v Dalila Jakupovic: This is a big number for Naomi Osaka to cover when you think of the limited success she has had on the grass courts in the past. Her opponent Dalila Jakupovic has come through the Qualifiers in Birmingham after having a successful week in Nottingham which makes her a dangerous opponent.

Any player who has come through the Qualifiers in back to back weeks is clearly playing with some confidence and so Jakupovic has to be respected. She has had some good wins on the grass courts with perhaps the biggest coming in the First Round in Birmingham as Jakupovic came from behind to beat Elise Mertens.

However the one defeat came to a quality player in Johanna Konta and I think Jakupovic may be playing an opponent who is much improved on the grass courts.

Osaka reached the Semi Final in Nottingham last week and she had some very dominant wins on the grass courts in the last ten days which will have given her some confidence. The serve has always been a decent weapon for Osaka on this surface, but she is backing that up with some strong returning displays and I think that is going to be the key in helping her overcome this opponent and covering this number.

Jakupovic has some solid numbers behind serve and return, but they are slightly less effective than Osaka's numbers and I think that will show up in this match. It could have a similar feel to the way Jakupovic was beaten by Konta last week in Nottingham and I will back Osaka to cover here.

MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka-Sam Querrey Over 24.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-6, + 3.98 Units (30 Units Staked, + 13.27% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (June 20th)

This is always considered the busiest week when it comes to the grass court tournaments in preparation for Wimbledon.

Tuesday looks to be one of the busiest days of any week outside of a Grand Slam tournament with the four events being played this week putting all of their remaining First Round matches on the schedule.

Today I will just have the picks from the Tuesday matches below and a full thread will be out for the Wednesday matches.


It was a disappointing Monday with a couple of players coming close to a cover but ultimately failing to do that to wrap up a winning day. Hopefully I cam get the picks back on track on Tuesday in what is going to be a busy week.


MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Mahut - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Camila Giorgi - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Shuai Zhang - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-3, - 1.60 Units (10 Units Staked, - 16% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2015 (June 20th)

The shocks kept coming on Friday at the three grass court tournaments being played in Birmingham, Halle and Queens and that has shown up in a Semi Final line up that is perhaps a little unfamiliar to casual fans.

Andy Murray and Roger Federer still lead the big names out there as the Semi Finals are played on Saturday, although the weather in London is not looking particularly good for the tournament at Queens.

Rain may delay any beginning to the Semi Finals, but the evening should clear up to make sure the tournament remains on schedule for the Sunday finish and then we are just eight days away from the beginning of Wimbledon.


Roger Federer Win First Set 7-6 v Ivo Karlovic: The weather in Halle might mean this Semi Final is played indoors and that is going to suit Ivo Karlovic just fine if Friday is anything to go by. On that day Karlovic broke the record for most aces in a three set match as he pummelled Tomas Berdych for 45 aces and came through to face Roger Federer.

It was a special win for Karlovic, but Roger Federer is a completely different kettle of fish and someone he doesn't have a winning record against like he did with Berdych. In fact Karlovic has lost 14/15 sets since shocking Federer with his sole victory against him back in 2008.

Roger Federer has been playing pretty well this week, although his return of serve is going to be tested to the fullest by Karlovic, and he has won the two previous matches on grass against the big serving Croatian. Both of those came in straight sets at Wimbledon, but the indoor conditions might make it difficult for Federer if Karlovic is serving anything close to what he produced in the Quarter Final.

It has to be stated that 8/13 of their previous matches has seen the first set go to the tie-break so the service performances of both players suggest that trend can continue. Federer is also 13-3 against Ivo Karlovic in tie-breakers and two of those losses came in the sole defeat in 2008 so you'd have to say that Federer does find a way to get a return or two in play to force the mini-breaks.

Federer will slice the ball back and he will begin to get a feel for where Karlovic wants to go with the serve and a small interest in him winning the first set 7-6 has to be warranted.


Kristina Mladenovic + 2.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: This looks to be an intriguing Semi Final between two players that could be dark horses to have a very strong Wimbledon tournament in the coming weeks. Both players have put together some impressive wins in Birmingham to reach this Semi Final and I think it has the makings of a match that could go the distance and be decided by a couple of points here and there.

Both Kristina Mladenovic and Karolina Pliskova have the serve that should offer them plenty of cheap points on the grass and both should be looking to attack the second serve to try and put pressure on their opponent.

Mladenovic and Pliskova are both comfortable on the Doubles court too so neither is going to be afraid to get forward and put away volleys when they have the other in a difficult place on the court.

There are plenty of similarities about their games, but Pliskova has definitely been the more consistent. However, the last couple of weeks has seen Mladenovic build plenty of confidence and I also feel the Frenchwoman has shown a little more on this surface than Pliskova in recent years.

Of course the Pliskova game is built for the grass courts and faster surfaces in general and she has been dominant this week which has to be respected. Mladenovic has had to dig deeper which would have taken more out of her from a mental and physical standpoint and she also had to deal with the tougher Quarter Final. However, I can see Mladenovic doing enough to keep this close and she has to be the call with the games.


Angelique Kerber - 2.5 games v Sabine Lisicki: This is the first time these two German women will have met since the 2012 Wimbledon Quarter Final which saw Angelique Kerber come through in three sets and extend her head to head to five wins over Sabine Lisicki.

Things have changed in the last three years with Sabine Lisicki improving on the grass courts in each season, but the players that have beaten her look to have something in common. Simona Halep, Marion Bartoli and Alison Riske are the last three players to beat Lisicki on the grass courts and all of those players are pretty solid defenders that can extend rallies to the breaking point of the Lisicki game while also being able to turn defence into attack.

Angelique Kerber is able to do something very similar- she is a very good mover on the grass and can get plenty of balls back in play as she looks to break down Lisicki's game. Players this week have shown you can start extracting the errors from the Lisicki game when you extend the rallies to beyond five shots and Kerber will be capable of doing that.

The lefty serve will be awkward for Lisicki to deal with and I think the match up is simply not a great one for her if Kerber is patient and looks to draw out the rallies. If she can just start getting a feel of what Lisicki is doing with her serve, which is very effective on the grass, then I like Kerber's chances of finding a 76, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer to Win 7-6 in the First Set @ 3.50 Coral (1 Unit)
Kristina Mladenovic + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 10-16, - 13.76 Units (52 Units Staked, - 26.46% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (June 20th)

On Friday 20th June, we are going to see the Wimbledon draw for the first time as the third Grand Slam of the season is just days away from getting underway. That will be the biggest story from the tennis world over the next twenty-four hours, but there are also some big matches to be played as the tournaments from this week reach the final four stage.

Unfortunately, both Eastbourne and Hertogenbosch have been affected by rain meaning they have some Quarter Finals to be completed on Friday and that means double duty for those winners with the Semi Finals scheduled for later in the day.

I was particularly surprised that the schedulers at Eastbourne decided to switch another WTA match before the Feliciano Lopez match against Jeremy Chardy, particularly as they did have a court free for the other match and that left the defending Champion waiting until Friday to play his Quarter Final and potential Semi Final.


Richard Gasquet - 2.5 games v Denis Istomin: Richard Gasquet has been struggling with an injury heading into the French Open, but clearly must be feeling a little better having competed at Halle and now in Eastbourne ahead of the tournament at Wimbledon.

Gasquet has played well in his two wins this week and I think his game is well suited to the grass courts and may give him an edge against Denis Istomin.

However, I have to respect Istomin for the fact that he has a decent serve that can give him some cheap points and put the pressure on Gasquet. That makes this Semi Final a little more difficult to judge, but I do think the Frenchman is the better grass court player and will come through with a 76, 64 win.


Angelique Kerber - 1.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: Angelique Kerber has gotten the better of Caroline Wozniacki in four of their last five matches and I think she is the better grass court player of the two and can win this Semi Final.

Kerber has a decent serve, moves well on the grass courts and has penetrating groundstrokes which makes her a very dangerous opponent on these courts.

The movement is something that not all players really feel comfortable with on grass, but Kerber has enjoyed success in the past and was a dominant winner over Ekaterina Makarova in the Quarter Finals.

On the other hand, Caroline Wozniacki is going to have to work hard to hold serve in this match and has come off a long Quarter Final which had to be mentally and physically draining. Recent successes for Kerber will give her more confidence and I like her to move into the Final at Eastbourne.

MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy @ 2.33 Pinnacle (2 Units) Already advised and postponed due to rain.
Nicolas Mahut @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units) Already advised but match postponed due to rain.

Weekly Update: 4-9, - 10.94 Units (26 Units Staked, - 42.08% Yield)

World Cup 2014 Group E Picks (June 15-25)

The FIFA World Rankings have regularly been criticised, but never more so than when Switzerland were one of the top eight seeds in this tournament having not been past the Second Round of any major international competition since the 1954 World Cup which was held in their own country. They are joined by France, the 1998 Winners and 2006 Runners Up, as well as Ecuador and Honduras.

You can find my outright picks from the tournament here

Group A picks will be made here

Group B picks will be made here

Group C picks will be made here

Group D picks will be made here

Group F picks will be made here

Group G picks will be made here

Group H picks will be made here


Sunday 15th June
Switzerland v Ecuador Pick: When it came to the World Cup 2014 draw last December, one of the bigger surprises was noticing that Switzerland were going to be one of the top seeds ahead of the likes of Italy and the Netherlands. It is a quirk of the FIFA World Rankings that Switzerland were able to get as high as they have despite failing to get out of the Group Stage of the 2010 World Cup in South Africa and also failing to qualify for the European Championships 2012.

However, Switzerland were dominant in their qualifying campaign and will very much be expected to qualify for the Second Round at the very least this time, while the future of the national team is exciting with young talent breaking through.

Their first game in Group E could be crucial to Switzerland's chances though as Ecuador are the most likely challengers for a top two berth assuming, and it is a big assumption at times, that France don't self-implode in the manner of 2002 and 2010.

The real issue that many have pointed out about Ecuador is their lack of success outside of Quito and that could be costly for them in this Group, even if their players are a little more accustomed to some of the conditions they will be facing.

So far, the World Cup has been producing a lot of goals, but this could be the second game that fails to reach those heights in my opinion. The layers seem to be in agreement with me in that regards with the Under 2.5 Goals set as low as 1.57 in some places, and even picking a winner doesn't look clear cut.

I am expecting a decent showing from the Swiss though and I do have concerns for Ecuador as a team outside of the comforts provided by the altitude of Quito. However, the value may be in backing Switzerland to win to nil at a big price considering they conceded just one goal in three Group games in South Africa and a strong defence has been the foundation of their success over the last few years.


France v Honduras Pick: After seeing the way Costa Rica dismantled Uruguay in their opening game at the World Cup, I definitely have a different level of respect for the teams coming out of the CONCACAF qualifying section other than the United States and Mexico.

However, I still believe that Honduras could be one of the weaker teams at the World Cup and anything other than getting beaten in all three games would be a decent return from a limited side.

They might have half a chance of springing a surprise or two if their opponents are not up to scratch and that is where France are a little difficult to judge.

It has been feast or famine for France in the last four World Cups- they have reached the Final twice, winning once, but also been beaten in the Group Stage twice so some fans may get very excited if they come out of this section. That has to be expected with Honduras, Switzerland and Ecuador making up the numbers, but losing Franck Ribery and leaving Samir Nasri at home has taken away some of the creativity that may have been expected.

The likes of Paul Pogba could thrive in their absence though with the former Manchester United player ready to show off his talents on the world stage. And if some of the friendly results since qualification are to go by, France should certainly be getting off to a very positive start in their opening game in Brazil.

France have beaten the Netherlands and crushed the likes of Jamaica and Norway and there does seem to be a settled squad travelling to Brazil under Didier Deschamps. This game should give France the right opportunity to play themselves into the tournament and I can't see anything but the side being too strong for Honduras.

Take away the draw with England in the friendlies, Honduras took heavy losses to Brazil, Turkey and Israel and I would expect France to be able to win this game by a couple of goals at least.


Switzerland won a dramatic game against Ecuador when it looked like the South American's were going to create a chance to win the game- thirty seconds later and the Swiss had scored the winning goal with virtually the last kick of the game and now are in a strong position to finish in one of the top two spots in the Group.

They were in the same boat four years ago after beating Spain, but Switzerland somehow managed to mess up qualification after drawing with Honduras in their final game and might be a little tense knowing that is their final game again.

However, Honduras looked remarkably average in their 3-0 loss to France and the latter showed the togetherness that hasn't always been a feature of their team.


Switzerland v France Pick: With three points each in the bag, there is every chance that France and Switzerland would both settle for a draw at this moment in time and take their chances in their final round of games. Each would have likely considered the other as the most dangerous team in the Group, although the onus is perhaps more on France who would like to finish top of the Group and avoid having to play Argentina in the next Round.

That is assuming Switzerland would at least beat Honduras which would leave France in a position of having to beat Ecuador and hope goal difference is in their favour, but you would think that both managers would accept that fate right now.

Qualification from the Group is the priority and I do believe this will be a tense encounter where neither team will want to give too much away- however, this World Cup has seen some strange displays from teams regardless of their situations as highlighted by the attacking Ivory Coast-Colombia game compared with the dire Greece-Japan game despite the two teams in the latter being more 'desperate' to win.

The draw is the a real player in the game where neither side will want to jeopardise their place in the Second Round, but I will simply take there being fewer than three goals in the game.


Honduras v Ecuador Pick: If the earlier game in Group E is a draw, that will mean the loser in this game is out of the competition although I don't think it would change the approach that Honduras are likely to have in the game.

There isn't a lot of quality going forward for Honduras, but they showed against France that they are able to disrupt the game and get plenty of bodies in and around the box to make it difficult for teams to break them down. France obviously had the added guile to do that, but I am not convinced that Ecuador can say the same about their team.

Set pieces may be the best avenue for both of these teams to try and score the goals to win the game, but I am not really holding out too much hope for an entertaining game in another of the late evening kick offs in Britain.

The teams did play out a 2-2 draw back in November before the draw was made for the World Cup, but there is a lot more at stake this time. The two options that have appealed to me the most is for another game going under 2.5 goals or Honduras with a 0.75 start on the Asian Handicap- my feeling is that one goal could potentially win this game so the low scoring option is my call.


The World Cup may only be a little under two weeks old and there is plenty of football to go before the winner is decided, but I have been the most impressed with France who tore Switzerland apart in their most recent game.

That result almost certainly means France will top Group E and will be assured of missing Argentina in the Second Round, albeit on the assumption that Argentina are not beaten by Nigeria by a couple of goals or in a high-scoring game earlier on Wednesday when final Group games are to be played.

Who follows France into the Second Round? Ecuador must be kicking themselves that they conceded such a late winner against Switzerland in their opening game, but the come from behind win over Honduras gives them a great chance as long as they can beat France in their final game.

Any other result means Switzerland will have the edge on second spot as long as they can beat Honduras, although they won't need reminding that a goalless draw with the same nation knocked them out in South Africa four years ago.


Ecuador v France Pick: With France almost certainly assured of finishing top of Group E and avoiding Argentina in the Second Round, there is every chance that they will rotate players in preparation for the next Stage of the World Cup.

France have been one of the most impressive teams in the tournament to this point and look like they have everything required to win the World Cup. Their opponents haven't been the best, but France have dismissed them with confidence and the stunning win over Switzerland demands respect.

They face an Ecuador team that knows what they have to do- either match the Switzerland scoreline, or avoid a heavy loss in the case of a Honduras win in the other game in the Group. That puts them in a tough spot because Ecuador haven't looked secure at the back, but have produced some decent attacking displays.

The problem for them is attacking this France team leaves gaps that they have exploited perfectly in the first two games and the pace the French have in forward areas could punish Ecuador. If France were to play a full team, or something close to that, they could certainly win this third game in the Group by countering an Ecuador team that may push forward, but those doubts about the line up are nagging.

It's a tough game to predict because of the permutations for Ecuador that depend on what is happening in the other game- the layers are taking no chances with this French team who look short and even backing goals doesn't look that profitable considering the situation for both teams.

An early goal would change all that in a Group that has produced plenty of goals but the best option for the game may be France to cover the Asian Handicap if Ecuador are pushing late in the game to get back into/or win the match.


Honduras v Switzerland Pick: Four years ago, these two teams met in South Africa in a very similar situation- on that occasion Honduras were out, but Switzerland needed to beat them in their final Group game to move into the Second Round. Despite a host of shots on goal, Switzerland could only manage a goalless draw in that game and exited the World Cup.

They have a little more room in this one as long as Ecuador don't earn a result against France which would give Switzerland a place in the Second Round with a point, but a defeat also means Switzerland are likely to be heading out.

It makes this a difficult prospect for the Swiss who were blitzed by France in their last game, especially as Honduras still have a chance of moving through with a win and an Ecuador loss. Goal difference looks against Honduras but you never know and they won't want to exit another World Cup just yet.

The edge in quality certainly belongs to Switzerland and an early goal may give them the foundations for a big win, but I can see them being a little more cautious to not fall into a hole as they have in their last two games. Switzerland came back to beat Ecuador, but were hammered by France, and they may just want to settle into this game.

Honduras can make life difficult for them too as they did for France with some of their heavy tackles and physical game able to put the Swiss off their stride. Patience may be the key for the European team who had big expectations heading into the World Cup, so taking a small interest on a draw at half time before the eventual Switzerland win may be the best call for the game.

GROUP E PICKS: Switzerland Win to Nil @ 4.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit) versus Ecuador
France - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units) versus Honduras
Switzerland-France Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Honduras-Ecuador Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
France - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units) versus Ecuador
Draw-Switzerland @ 4.50 Bet Victor (1 Unit) versus Honduras

Group E Update: 1-3, - 3.16 Units (7 Units Staked, - 45.14% Yield)

World Cup 2014 Group D Picks (June 14-24)

I'm from England so you can imagine the fascination that has been placed in Group D as not many over here know exactly what to expect from this tournament. A young squad that is vastly changed from the Euro 2012 one will travel to Brazil to take on 2006 World Cup winners Italy, 2010 Semi Finalists and two time former Winner Uruguay and Scotland's nemesis in 1990, Costa Rica.

You can find my outright picks from the tournament here

Group A picks will be made here

Group B picks will be made here

Group C picks will be made here

Group E picks will be made here

Group F picks will be made here

Group G picks will be made here

Group H picks will be made here


Saturday 14th June
Uruguay v Costa Rica Pick: When you take a look at Group D, it is clear that Costa Rica look the team that the other three nations will all be looking at as the weak link. Italy, England and Uruguay are more closely matched than many may initially think and there is every chance that goal difference is going to separate two or even all three of those teams by the time the Group comes to an end.

That puts Uruguay in a strange position really as they will know the first three points from an opening game is a very strong start to the competition, but may also feel they will need to score a few goals to really give themselves an edge over Italy and England and put pressure on both of those teams who will kick off in the next game.

It is where the absence of Luis Suarez would be most costly- the Liverpool striker is likely not to be risked for this game, but Uruguay will hope they can still score a couple of goals and put together a strong win.

I hate disregarding any team that has qualified for the World Cup, but Costa Rica have lost three key players before the tournament began in Bryan Oviedo, Rodney Wallace and Alvaro Saborio and they do look like a team that will struggle to get any points on the board from this Group.

Japan and Chile recorded some thumping wins over Costa Rica in friendly games over the last nine months since the latter qualified for the World Cup and while I don't think Uruguay will reach the four goals that Chile scored, I do think they will win a little easier than the layers are imagining.

The game is being played in the north of the country which could sap some energy, but Uruguay to win by a couple of goals and give themselves a strong platform for the Group is my pick.


England v Italy Pick: As soon as the schedule was released for the World Cup, the fact that England and Italy had been set to meet in the Amazon in Manaus has dominated the headlines, especially in England. The heat and humidity of that area has been a concern from day one and it will be physically and mentally taxing.

There hasn't been much of a mental improvement with rumours of the pitch being in disarray and that the stadium has resorted to spray painting in green to ensure the dry, brown grass is not seen.

Neither team will be looking to make excuses with both having to play on the same surface, but it might affect the game as much as the heat does and I have been set on the draw for some time.

Both Italy and England will know the importance of not losing this first game in the Group with games against Uruguay and Costa Rica to come and it is arguable that both will see the other as the biggest obstacle in the Group. Of course, both managers will certainly be talking up their intentions to go forward and score the goals to win the game, but there is also a real feeling that both will 'settle' for a draw if that is the scoreline with half an hour or twenty minutes to go.

The conditions both with the humidity and the playing surface will make it much harder for the quality attacking football for both to play, although neither defence really strikes me as being impenetrable. However, physically it will be tough at times and I do think the draw is the most likely result, although it will only take one goal to settle this one way or the way in my opinion.

Even with that in mind, I think there is something to be said about playing the 'no goalscorer' option in this game- that would also be a winner if there is only an own goal scored and so makes a little better sense than picking a goalless draw with that in mind.

I'd recommend keeping that pick for a small interest as all it will take is one deflected strike to find its way to the back of the net, but the 0-0 draw certainly makes most appeal if the game ends with the points shared as I am expecting. Both may see that as a positive point, and everything is pointing to a tight game in the Amazon jungle.


Well, well, well, the Costa Rica win over Uruguay in the first round of games in Group D certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons- many expected the 'Group of Death' to see the exit of one of the three teams that currently occupy the top ten in the FIFA World Rankings, but the Costa Rica win puts the potential for two of those teams to pack their bags for home.

The Group was expected to be a fight between Uruguay, England and Italy for the top two spots and a place in the Second Round, but instead we have a 'must win' game for the former two teams in the second set of games.

England were beaten 2-1 by Italy to open their World Cup campaign which essentially means the losing team in the match with Uruguay will virtually be sent home regardless of what happens in the Italy-Costa Rica match which is played the day after.

That should be a very exciting and tense game on Thursday, while the Italians can give themselves a platform for another bid to win the World Cup by beating Costa Rica and putting one foot into the next round as winners of Group D.


Uruguay v England Pick: Prior to the first set of results in Group D, England were the outsider in this game and as big as 2.88 to win the match, but that has all changed after Saturday and they are now a strong favourite to earn the three points that will give them a decent chance of making it to the Second Round.

Both teams are going to be desperate for the win and that is where I think the pace of the England forward line, particularly through Raheem Sterling, Danny Welbeck and Daniel Sturridge are going to have a lot of success. The Uruguay defence is not the best and they don't have a lot of speed back there so counter-attacking them shouldn't be a problem especially if England can get their noses in front.

A similar display to the one against Italy will give England those chances and I also believe Wayne Rooney may have the chance to silence a few of his critics despite his less than stellar displays in World Cup matches to date.

On the other hand, Uruguay will be boosted by the likely return of Luis Suarez, but I can't help feeling the Liverpool man is not going to be at full health- he has only had four more days than the one against Costa Rica and Uruguay would have needed his services for that one but he wasn't fit enough to even come off the bench, so playing from the start seems a big risk.

The service to Suarez and Edinson Cavani can be predictable at times for Uruguay and I have a feeling they know the loss to Costa Rica is likely to be terminal to their chances of qualifying. With that seed of doubt, England can take control of the match and produce a win that would put them in a great position to reach the Second Round which would constitute a mini-success from a tough opening section.

My only disappointment is the poor odds for the England win as they do look short, but I also feel that is the most likely outcome of this match. However, the value may be placed in England to win a high-scoring game which could come about with an early goal, especially as both teams will be desperate for the three points.


Italy v Costa Rica Pick: Costa Rica are the underdog in the Group and will likely approach the game in the same manner as they did in the Uruguay game and will hope to counter attack Italy. A draw wouldn't be the worst result in the world for two teams that have won their first game as they would have control of their own destiny, but I think there is a wider gap between the qualities of the two teams.

Italy can play up and down depending on the opposition and they have to make sure they don't take Costa Rica lightly and end up on the wrong end of a surprise result. The win over Uruguay has given Costa Rica real belief that they can match their best result at the World Cup, but it may also have opened the eyes of Italy and England to what they can do and that makes it more difficult for them in my opinion.

There is an energy in the Costa Rica ranks that will cause problems, but I have a feeling Italy will show the experience and know-how that is so often associated with them and that will lead to a single goal margin of victory for them.


I'd be surprised if I would need more than my pair of hands to count the number of people that expected Costa Rica to have booked their place in the Second Round without the need to play their third game of the Group. On paper, it was Costa Rica that most would have been expecting to be heading home at this juncture, but they have every chance of winning Group D as long as they avoid a heavy defeat against England in a game where both managers will be making changes.

That might be a 'dead rubber' but the game between Italy and Uruguay will be a knockout game between two nations that had big expectations heading into the tournament and will lead to questions for the losing nation.


Costa Rica v England Pick: Both managers are expected to make a number of changes to their first teams for differing reasons- Jorge Luis Pinto is preparing to rest players for the Second Round match they have this weekend, while Roy Hodgson wants to give some of the players that haven't started an opportunity before England head home.

That makes this an unpredictable match, but the fact that neither has anything to lose should bring out the attacking intentions from both teams. However, the changes can also stunt some of the positive play between players that are perhaps not as sharp as those in the first team.

I have to say that Roy Hodgson is being harshly treated by the English media after the two losses the side suffered, especially as he has been let down by some of the defending, particularly in the Uruguay game. Better finishing from Wayne Rooney would have set England up for the win in the second game, while Steven Gerrard has to hold his hands up and take responsibility for the killer goal from Luis Suarez, even if both centre backs also were in poor positions.

This game does give England the opportunity to at least end the tournament with a smile on their face, even if it is only a wry one thinking of what could have been, and the World Cup has produced a host of attacking football. I see no reason why both Costa Rica and England won't want to get forward in this one and goals looks a decent shout in a Group that has produced plenty already to this point.

Picking a winner is more difficult considering the expected changes, but over 2.5 goals looks the call.


Italy v Uruguay Pick: Just take a quick look at the odds and you can see how close these two nations are in terms of what the layers think and I honestly think it is going to be as close as advertised.

As exciting as the World Cup has been, this is the first really 'big' game in terms of what it means to two nations that would have expected to go deep into the tournament. The team moving through will feel they have dodged a bullet and playing with house money the rest of the way, which makes them very dangerous, while the team going home will do so with a lot of questions to be asked about where it went wrong.

Italy and Uruguay have had similar results to this point- both recorded 2-1 wins over England, perhaps a little fortunately, while both were outplayed and deserved to lose their games against Costa Rica.

Luis Suarez definitely gives Uruguay an edge up front, but he is not at 100% full health and I don't think the Italians will defend him as naively as England did in the last game. A lack of pace through the middle of the park may clog up this game, although I haven't been impressed with either defence either.

The tournament has produced so many goals that it is crazy to think about the under 2.5 goals option- some of the defending has made that number look low as attacking play has dominated, but you have to think both teams will be more cautious in this one. An early goal changes the whole outlook of the game, but if this is goalless by the half hour mark, nerves and the importance of not conceding could take over the mentality of both teams.

Whoever does score first is unlikely to really push on for the second and I think the under is the right call, although this World Cup will probably produce a 6-6 thriller.

GROUP D PICKS: Uruguay - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.45 Pinnacle (2 Units) versus Costa Rica
England-Italy No Goalscorer @ 6.50 Coral (1 Unit)
England Win and Over 2.5 Goals Scored @ 3.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Italy to Win by One Goal @ 3.50 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Costa Rica-England Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Unibet (2 Units)
Italy-Uruguay Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.97 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Group D Update: 1-5, - 6.06 Units (10 Units Staked, - 60.60% Yield)