Tennis Picks Wednesday 12 October (Shanghai Masters)

It was a mediocre start to the week as Feliciano Lopez covered the spread in his win over Janko Tipsarevic, but David Nalbandian was easily pushed aside by Florian Mayer. That leaves me with an extremely small loss for the day as the Masters event continues today.

Just before I get on with my picks from the Wednesday schedule, I would like to put down my two-cents on this whole story about the big players potentially 'striking' if things are not changed with the schedule.

Now, I want to begin by saying I love sports and I really respect the people that are capable of playing it at a high level, but all this nonsense about striking is beginning to get on my nerves.

Boris Becker was the latest former player to give his support to the players, but I find it astonishing that people being paid as well as they are find time to complain about things.

Yes, the schedule is tough, but there is little room for manoeuvre as far as the ATP are concerned... Well little room without a complete overhaul of what we have come to expect with the Australian Open in January, the French Open in May, Wimbledon in June and the US Open in September. None of these Grand Slams want to move so that means there is unlikely to be a major overhaul at any time soon.

So what are the players complaining about? They feel they have to play too much compulsory tennis, with the top players expected to play in 4 Grand Slams and 8 Masters events in the course of the season. Their results in 6 other tournaments are also counted, whether that comes from the 500 Events or the 250 Events is up to the player in question.

This is a lot of tennis, and they feel there is a need for a off-season as you get in most sports- however, my sympathy does not run that deep for them here.

First off, a lot of these players are subsidised to ridiculous levels to take part in the 'lesser' tournaments, while an exhibition tournament (without ranking points) in the Middle East is attended by top players at the beginning of January- they are given very generous appearance fees for such an event and shouldn't take part if there is too much tennis being played.

Straight away, I don't understand how they can complain about the amount of tennis being played, yet take up offers to appear in events that count for nothing- I don't begrudge someone making their money through their talents, but to then COMPLAIN about TOO MUCH tennis looks a little silly.

It is correct that there is only around 5 weeks between the end of the tennis season to the beginning of a new one, even less if players take part in the Final of the Davis Cup, but let's not skirt the amount of time the top players miss during the season.

There can be around a month after the Australian Open that the top players are not seen, and around 6 weeks after Wimbledon before they begin their US hard court challenge, so there are times DURING the season that they can recover from physical ailments.

I understand the complaints that were made at the US Open (while my favourite Grand Slam, the scheduling in the early stages leaves a lot to be desired), but even that tournament has to give way to TV demands, without which these tennis players would not be earning as much as they are right now.

A lot of these players are putting in a ton of hard work to get to where they are, but they need to perhaps be reminded of the hardship 'normal' people are going through to make ends meet and it these people that make tennis players millionaires.

I am just a little fed up with all this super rich people complaining about things when there are so many out there that just about feed a family of 4 after working five continuous shifts of 14 hours a day...

Tennis players, like other sports stars, are doing something they love and the complaints seem a little out of context with the grand scheme of things.


That is just my opinion on things, I don't think sports stars should be treated as robots at our beck and call, but to talk about strikes is beginning to get on my nerves a tad.

Picks will follow below once the prices and schedule for the days play are released:

Fernando Verdasco vs Juan Carlos Ferrero: I think Fernando Verdasco is being slightly underrated after his hammering at the hands of Tomas Berdych last week, but I think he is still good enough to take care of Juan Carlos Ferrero.

Verdasco has won 3 of the last 4 meetings between the players and I think he will continue that run, albeit in 3 sets, and I don't think he should be dogged in this match up.

MY PICK: Fernando Verdasco @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Shanghai Masters: 1-1, - 0.20 Units


Season Total: + 82.02 Units

US Open Day 6 Picks

What could go wrong yesterday, did go wrong as my picks fell to a disappointing 0-4.

Lucie Safarova's start to the day (winning 1 game) set the tone, but things got worse from there. Andy Murray had a chance to secure the cover but blew a 4-0 lead in his final set against what looked like a deflated Haase.

James Blake had a break advantage against David Ferrer in sets 2 and 3 but couldn't get over the line and Sam Stosur had plenty of chances in her match against Nadia Petrova but couldn't do the same.

Still, I won't complain about a lack of luck as I have had my fair share too this week and I will hopefully bounce back with a bit of style today.

Day 6 Picks:

Janko Tipsarevic vs Tomas Berdych: This will be a small play on the Serb as I think he is being vastly underestimated against a 'bigger name' in Tomas Berdych.

Tipsarevic can certainly play good tennis and normally thrives against the better players, pushing Roger Federer to 5 sets in Australia in 2008 and beating Andy Roddick when early losses for the American were still a surprise.

To further his credentials, Tipsarevic has beaten Berdych, in the Czech Republic no less, in a Davis Cup tie- and not a meaningless Rubber either, but Rubber 1 in a Semi Final.

Neither player has been pushed too hard in the tournament so far, but Tipsarevic leads the head to head 3-2, including a straight sets win in Montreal last month, and he is worth chancing.


Juan Carlos Ferrero vs Marcel Granollers: This has been set as a pick 'em because of the two 5 setters Juan Carlos Ferrero has played so far in the tournament, but the veteran Spaniard is the better hard court player of the two and I can see him coming through.

Ferrero's win over Gael Monfils, from 2-1 down in sets, shows he is in good form and the former Finalist here will fancy his chances against Granollers who he has beaten in all 3 meetings they have played, including Stuttgart in July.

Granollers has won both his matches in straight sets, but this could be a step too far against a player he would have grown up watching and I think Ferrero will come through in 4.


Roger Federer - 6.5 games vs Marin Cilic: Big hitters have given Roger Federer plenty of problems in the last 6 weeks with both Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych beating him on the hard courts, but I struggle to believe Marin Cilic has the consistency to do the same.

It is true that Federer is not the player of old and he may have even lost half a step, yet he still has too much consistency for the erratic Croatian.

There are some real positive signs coming from Cilic in the last 2 months since really struggling in 2011, but his 2nd serve remains a little problem, while the inconsistent forehand will struggle against Federer's biggest weapon.

Federer has won both previous meetings in straight sets against Cilic, and I think this could be his statement match of the tournament so far.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga win 3-1 in sets vs Fernando Verdasco: This has to be the 'popcorn' match of the day as two players who can play some electric tennis meet in the late evening- the match has all the credentials to be a classic and I expect the atmosphere will be special.

Tsonga gets the clear edge considering his recent form, but he is yet to beat Verdasco having lost the 2 previous meetings while winning 1 set and losing 5.

However, the Spaniard's game is not of the level of early 2010 and I think Tsonga has bypassed him comfortably now.

Verdasco is still  capable of the sublime though, and I can see him taking a set, but not stopping Tsonga's march to a very interesting match with Mardy Fish (his most likely opponent).


Novak Djokovic - 9.5 games vs Nikolay Davydenko: Go back a couple of seasons and I would have jumped all over the Davydenko + 9.5 games, but the form of the Russian is so far removed from then, while Novak Djokovic is playing some lights out tennis.

They met recently in Montreal and I picked Djokovic to cover 5.5 games in that match, which he went on and won 7-5, 6-1.

That showed me Davydenko is capable of playing some of his old tennis, but not with anything like the consistency of old. I think we will see something similar today where he pushes Djokovic for a set, but will be well beaten by the end of the match as it is the Serb's consistency and power that overwhelm him.


Serena Williams - 5.5 games vs Victoria Azarenka: Serena Williams is playing some exceptional tennis and will surely feel she can go all the way if she can negotiate this tough 3rd Round match.

Maria Sharapova's exit yesterday has made Williams the clear favourite to win the tournament, but Azarenka is no pushover.

Williams beat Azarenka 6-3, 6-3 in Toronto and I think her power will overwhelm her opponent again tonight. She has won her last 2 tournaments she has contested, and has only lost 3 games in 2 matches at Flushing Meadows and looks to be playing close to her best.

Azarenka did well to beat Gisela Dulko in straight sets in the last Round, but did give up a few opportunities on her own serve and that could lead to her downfall in this match.


MY PICKS: Janko Tipsarevic @ 3.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Juan Carlos Ferrero @ 1.90 Stan James (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 6.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Novak Djokovic - 9.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)




US OPEN UPDATE: 12-7, + 10.29 Units

Tennis Picks July 30th

I am going to put all my picks from the tournaments running in this one thread today but I will update the weekly totals separately as I have been doing all week.

It was a disappointing evening as both Maria Sharapova and Juan Martin Del Potro exited the tournaments. The latter is more disappointing as my biggest outright back of the week and it sounds like he was just not at the races.

Players like Ernests Gulbis can be very dangerous when they get hot, the problem for him is consistency to play like that against the lesser players.

Juan Carlos Ferrero is now the last man standing in terms of outright picks, but he would cover the entire outlay of the week if he can go on and retain his title in Umag- I just hope he can do it without the breakdown he had yesterday against Carlos Berlocq when losing 5 games in a row in the 2nd set and seeing his 5-1 lead disappear. The Spaniard did come through in straight sets, but it would have been nice if he had got off court a little earlier as he should have done.

Now on to the Picks:

Nicolas Almagro - 3.5 games vs Fernando Verdasco: This is a repeat of the Semi Final from last week in Hamburg and I would not be surprised if we get a similar result (last week Almagro won 6-1, 6-4).

Almagro has been solid all week behind his serve and even doing double duty yesterday did not slow him down when beating Jarkko Nieminen and Feliciano Lopez. If he continues to serve like that, he will put a lot of pressure on his compatriot today.

Fernando Verdasco did not play that well for 2 sets yesterday against Julien Benneteau and I just feel he is not quite at the races mentally this season. He seems to get through against the lesser players but struggles when faced against someone who is playing well.

The court has played fairly quickly all week and I feel that will give Almagro the edge too so I will back him to come through with a bit to spare.

Juan Carlos Ferrero - 2 games vs Alexandr Dolgopolov: If anyone followed the outright picks at the start of the week, we have already got Juan Carlos Ferrero at 4.00 to win this match and get through to the Final so they may not want to put a bit more on him here.

However, I do want to back him again as I feel the match up is more in Ferrero's favour than the layers think it is. He is fairly consistent from the back of the court and could grind down Dolgopolov here, although I would like to see the Spaniard take care of his serve a little more.

Dolgopolov has not been getting enough first serves in and that could give him more problems here against a player like Ferrero who has the big groundstrokes. A lot of second serves will allow Ferrero to dictate more points and that could be the edge to this match.

They also met here last year in the Quarter Final and Dolgopolov was beaten heavily and won just 3 games in the 2 sets they competed.

I dont think it will be a blowout like that, but I do think Ferrero will come through and reach his 3rd consecutive Final here.

Mardy Fish - 4.5 games vs Ryan Harrison: This is a repeat of the Semi Final from Atlanta last week and I dont see any reason to change my mind but to predict Mardy Fish to come through in 2 sets again.

Harrison has had the 2 most productive weeks of his short career so far and has showed the heart and belief to come through some tight spots, particularly in the 2nd set against Yen-Hsun Lu yesterday, but this is a huge step up from the quality of opponents he has played so far this week and I struggle to see how he can do enough to affect the Fish game.

The one thing in Harrison's favour is the amount of tennis Mardy Fish has played recently and whether that catches up with him here. However, Fish has been taking his fitness as seriously as he ever has and I am not sure if his losing energy is just clutching at straws.

I just think the Fish game is too big at this moment in time for the improving Harrison and I think a similar scoreline to last weeks 6-2, 6-4 could be in the offing.

Ernests Gulbis - 3 games vs Alex Bogomolov: This could be the case of 'after the Lord Mayor's show' for Ernests Gulbis following his impressive straight sets win over Juan Martin Del Potro, but I am of the feeling that the Latvian is a momentum player that could be tough to stop this week.

He has played some decent tennis this week to get this far and was more than a little unfortunate to lose to James Blake in the 1st Round in Atlanta last week and Gulbis' better performances have generally come on the hard courts in recent seasons.

Gulbis has all the attributes in his game to be a good hard court player, but sometimes it is the thing between his ears that lets him down. The confidence from the win over Del Potro should give him the boost to reach the Final this week.

Alex Bogomolov is a journeyman player having his best year on the main tour so will not be easy pickings. He has reached the Quarter Finals in 3 of the last 5 tournaments he has played and also made it through to the 3rd Round at Wimbledon in that time so is in decent form.

However, I think it could be telling that he has had a few problems with the bigger hitters on the tour and Gulbis will fit into that category. Bogomolov has lost to John Isner, Gilles Muller and Tomas Berdych in recent weeks and I think the pressure of trying to hold serve could be too much for him today.

Gulbis is not the best person to trust, but I think he should be too strong for the American tonight.

MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 3.5 games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Juan Carlos Ferrero - 2 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Mardy Fish - 4.5 games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Ernests Gulbis - 3 games @ 1.83 10Bet (2 Units)

WEEKLY UPDATE GSTAAD/UMAG: + 5.96 Units

WEEKLY UPDATE STANFORD/LA: - 4.38 Units

Tennis Picks July 29th Umag and Gstaad

This has to be a fairly quick post although there is time to get on the picks. Due to the late arrival of markets from the bookmakers, I don't have time to put all my analysis down, but take my word that I have been studying the form last night.

Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games vs Julien Benneteau


Mikhail Youzhny - 4.5 games vs Andreas Haider-Maurer


Juan Carlos Ferrero - 4.5 games vs Carlos Berlocq


Double; Marin Cilic vs Andreas Seppi and Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Albert Ramos




MY PICKS: Double; Nicolas Almagro and Feliciano Lopez @ 1.96 Still Running from yesterday
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 4.5 games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Carlos Ferrero - 4.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Double; Marin Cilic and Alexandr Dolgopolov @ 2.36 Pinnacle (2 Units)




WEEKLY UPDATE UMAG/GSTAAD: - 0.24 Units

Tennis Picks July 16th

I was so angry with the way things had gone for me the day before yesterday that I could not bring myself to make more picks until I felt I was back on the straight and narrow.

The tournaments this week have not been kind to me, and I have been lacking the little bit of luck everyone who places a wager needs at any time.

Igor Andreev, Filippo Volandri, Gilles Simon and Mikhail Youzhny have all let me down from positions where they were winning the match before falling apart.

David Ferrer failed to cover by 0.5 games after missing numerous chances in his match with Pere Riba, and I just needed to take a break from the action.

The tournament in Stuttgart has seen all the seeded players exit the tournament and I think Juan Carlos Ferrero could take advantage and really show the rest of the tour that he is back to full health after missing a large chunk of the last 10 months through injury.

Over in Sweden it is a different story as the top 4 seeds all reached the Semi Finals- I still have Nicolas Almagro running in the outright market but need him to reverse a 0-7 head to head record with David Ferrer if he is going to get a chance to defend his title on Sunday.

Now on to the Semi Final Picks:


Double; Juan Carlos Ferrero vs Federico Del Bonis and Robin Soderling vs Tomas Berdych: Both of these players are rightly the favourites to come through their respective Semi Finals and I believe both will do so.

Juan Carlos Ferrero has been playing some very good tennis this week and he has the experience to make things tough for Federico Del Bonis, a player that has never before reached this stage of a full ATP Tournament.

Del Bonis has done very well to come through the qualifiers to reach this stage, but has taken advantage of a kind draw and this will be his toughest test so far. The young Argentine has not really shown the levels of performances before and I expect Juan Carlos Ferrero to come through.

Robin Soderling has a 8-4 head to head record over Tomas Berdych and he has now won 6 of the last 7 matches they have played against one another. I was slightly concerned with the illness Soderling had at Wimbledon, one that led to him pulling out of the Davis Cup tie for Sweden, but he has made great progress through the week and looks desperate to regain his title here after losing in the Final last year.

Tomas Berdych has been beating the lower ranked players with relative ease, but has struggled with the better players while not enjoying his best season. The big Czech should make things difficult but I think he is mentally more fragile than Soderling at this moment and I expect the Swede to make it through to a Final in his own country.


MY PICKS: Double; Juan Carlos Ferrero and Robin Soderling @ 1.92 Pinnacle (3 Units)

WEEKLY UPDATE:  A very disappointing - 8.61 Units