Tennis Picks July 21st ATP Atlanta

It was another good day at Hamburg for the picks and all 3 came in during the afternoon session. That makes the picks 6 for 6 in the last 2 days at the German tournament, while the Atlanta picks have been bringing in a profit themselves.

John Isner won his match last night but he looked a little shaky and I am much happier being on Mardy Fish outright. In saying that, Fish faces arguably his biggest test before the Final when he meets Nicolas Mahut in the evening session. Lleyton Hewitt is still a danger, but I would expect Fish to deal with the veteran Australian too if they do meet later on in the week.


Now on to the Picks:


Xavier Malisse vs Ryan Harrison: I was going to give this match a miss at the start of the week, but the odds on Xavier Malisse have reached levels where they make an interest for me.

Ryan Harrison is the big hope of American tennis but he is still young and learning his craft. I have to say I have been very impressed with his tenacity, as shown in defeats to David Ferrer at Wimbledon and even in the manner of his defeat to Robin Soderling at the French Open.

He had a very good run at Indian Wells when reaching the 4th Round before falling to Roger Federer, but overall has not quite lived up to the expectation when playing on the main tour.

And he is not playing a nobody- Xavier Malisse is a solid pro who is very accustomed to playing on the faster surfaces. He had a strong American hard court Summer last year, reaching the Quarter Finals here in Atlanta and also the Semi Final in Washington.

I expected Malisse to go off at around 1.5, so the offer at Pinnacle looks too good to ignore.


Lleyton Hewitt - 4.5 games vs Rajeev Ram: A few years ago, I would have had full faith in Lleyton Hewitt to negate the big serving opponent and grind out a break in each set to win this match. However, injuries have taken their toll on the Aussie and he finds it a bit harder to play his game and has to give up on more points than he used to.

In saying that, I still expect him to expose this limited opponent today. Hewitt has not had a lot of tennis in the last few months, but there was plenty to like about his performance when losing to Robin Soderling at Wimbledon and he has always liked the American hard court swing.

Rajeev Ram was a surprise victor in the 1st Round over Grigor Dimitrov after qualifying for this event, but it was only last week that he was beaten handily by Dudi Sela in a Challenger event and I cant help but think Hewitt is a level above him even at this stage of his career.

Last season, Ram was beaten fairly easily by Andy Roddick in the 2nd Round and I think Hewitt can also progress here with a break in each set to cover the spread. I will be looking at a 6-4, 6-3 scoreline for Hewitt.


MY PICKS: Xavier Malisse @ 1.70 Pinnacle (3 Units)
Lleyton Hewitt - 4.5 games @ 2.25 10Bet (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE: + 14.88 Units (Includes all pick results from July 21st at Hamburg)

Wimbledon Day 4 Picks

The first 3 days of this tournament have been hard work to say the least, with matches being delayed thanks to the weather, while a few shocking results have hit the picks. That does not mean we are falling behind, but the profit margin is hardly worth writing home about.

I always think Wimbledon is one of the harder tournaments to back on a daily basis as many casual punters make sure the bookmakers are much tighter with the prices they offer. However, as we go further into the tournament, I expect prices will become more reasonable and perhaps more appealing.

On a different note, the two outright winners in the bottom half of the Women's draw have both moved through to the 3rd Round, although both Daniela Hantuchova and Vera Zvonareva have tough matches against Victoria Azarenka and Tsvetana Pironkova respectively.

Rafael Nadal also continued making his way through the draw, and I am not too worried that we are yet to see the best of his tennis as I hope he is saving that for next week. Tomas Berdych looks a threat in their potential Quarter Final, but the big serving Czech is yet to face real testing competition.


Now on to Day 4 Picks:


Marcos Baghdatis vs Andrea Seppi: Marcos Baghdatis almost blew a 2 set lead in the 1st Round against James Blake but showed tremendous resolve to actually get through that test in 5 sets, coming from a break down in the final set to pull the victory. Grass has suited his game in the past and I think he could be in line to have one of his more successful weeks of 2011.

Andrea Seppi had never really shown great ability on this surface in the past, but is coming in off winning Eastbourne last week. He came through the 1st Round against Alberto Montanes in relatively straightforward fashion, but I cant help thinking his serve is a little weak for grass and he could give Baghdatis too many chances to attack him off it.

Seppi leads the head to head 1-0, but I really feel the Cypriot can level that up here.


Xavier Malisse - 2.5 games vs Florian Mayer: Xavier Malisse has decent grass court pedigree and has the tools that will give him the chance to win his service games a little easier than it will be for Florian Mayer.

Mayer's serve is not the best, although he uses plenty of variation in his game to prove a nuisance for a little while. However, he is dealing with a player with plenty of experience of the surface and one that came through his 1st Round clash with ease.

On the other hand, Mayer struggled to get past Daniel Evans of Great Britain.

Malisse is also leading the head to head 1-0 so may not be as surprised with Mayer's game as someone who has never played him before might be.


Michael Llodra - 7.5 games vs Ricardo Mello: This is a pick for the reason that Llodra is more than capable on this surface as shown by his Doubles win here and he also employs a serve-volley tactic that pressurises his opponents.

Mello does not really play too many matches on this surface, and he does not get many wins. His 1st Round win over Frank Dancevic was a surprise, even more so as he came from 2 sets down to do so. That may have taken more out of him than may be expected at this early stage of the tournament and Llodra could take real advantage.

Mello's serve also has the tendency to fall away in sets, and Llodra could win this one with a bit to spare.


Robin Soderling - 4.5 games vs Lleyton Hewitt: This match had the potential to cause plenty of problems for Robin Soderling, but the expected rain could mean it is played under the roof of Centre Court, a situation that will favour the big hitting Swede in my opinion.

Much of Soderling's best tennis in his career has come indoors, and while the bounce may still cause some problems, that should tip the scales in his favour. The high ball toss will not be affected by wind, and Soderling will be able to hit through the ball.

Hewitt won in 4 sets against Kei Nishikori in the 1st Round, but it was a much tighter match than the scoreline even suggested. Nishikori will be kicking himself that he didnt do more when he had chances in the 2nd and 4th set, but Soderling is unlikely to be so easy on Hewitt.

A couple of years ago I would have favoured Hewitt, especially at the prices on offer. However, now I expect Soderling to come through in no more than 4 sets.


Roger Federer - 9 games vs Adrian Mannarino: The biggest issue here is Adrian Mannarino is a left handed player, although Roger Federer will be used to what they can do too.

Federer was serving brilliantly in the 1st Round, and any continuation of that will give him a great chance to overcome this spread. Mannarino gives up chances on his own serve and there is a good chance that Federer will win one set 6-1/6-2, a scoreline that should set him on his way to covering this spread.

Mannarino came through a 5 set match with Conor Niland to reach this stage and a chance to play on Centre Court. He will have to serve exceptionally well compared to recent weeks if he wants to keep this close, I just dont believe he will do so.


MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Xavier Malisse - 2.5 games @ 1.95 10Bet (2 Units)
Michael Llodra - 7.5 games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Robin Soderling - 4.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 9 games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE: + 0.83 Units (+ 0.24 Units Day 3)