US Open Tennis Day 6 Picks 2025 (Friday 29th August)

I've been on the right side of some of the fortune through the first four days of the tournament, but Day 5 proved to be very frusrtrating.

Make no mistake, the totals are in a good position through the opening two Rounds of the US Open, and most would have signed up to be in this position going into the middle weekend at this Grand Slam.

However, that does not mean you cannot be frustrated by some of the manner that Picks went down on Thursday.

Easily the most irritating was Alexander Zverev's failure to cover, despite moving into a 6-4, 6-4, 5-1 lead in his match.

At that point Jacob Fearnley decided he would just hit and hope and managed to save multiple Match Points across two service games, while breaking in the most ridiculous of manners in between and he scrambled across the line by one game.

Karen Khachanov and Tommy Paul both won the opening two sets and were in a position to cover, but it was the first signs of what can happen at the US Open when they were both were pulled into a fifth set and the former was beaten outright.

Momentum shifting at a crucial time also happened in the Stefanos Tsitsipas loss- he dropped the first set, but then took two in a row and secured an opening game break in the fourth set, but also lost all focus.

Let's be honest, on another day all five selections would have been returning as winners, and so to see four drop is highly irritating.

One positive is that the read on those matches was largely right and it took something a little unexpected for the momentum to turn within those contests.

As mentioned, it has still been a very positive start to the tournament and that has to be remembered.

You always need a bit of luck and hopefully Day 5 proves to be the low point of the fortnight.

Ben Shelton - 5.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: After some of the performances on the North American hard courts this summer and having a temperament that is extremely well suited to the biggest events, Ben Shelton is going to be a very tough player to beat at the US Open. He won the Canadian Masters and Ben Shelton has impressed through the first two Rounds of the tournament and he has to be considered a pretty healthy favourite to get past veteran Adrian Mannarino.

The respectful conduct during the win over Pablo Carreno Busta is going to serve Ben Shelton well in this Third Round match.

All credit has to be given the World Number 6 for the attitude- he was a pretty comfortable winner against the veteran, but made sure he paid full respect to a former two time US Open Semi Finalist. That attitude helps make sure a player is not taking anything for granted and Shelton will need to do the same against Adrian Mannarino who has found some solid form over the last month.

Comfortable progress has been made at the US Open and Adrian Mannarino gave Jannik Sinner something to think about in a competitive defeat in Cincinnati. There had been little sign of this kind of success prior to the North American hard court swing and Mannarino will feel he has nothing to lose.

The Frenchman also holds a win over Ben Shelton at the Australian Open in 2024 in a five setter and so care will have to be taken by the home favourite.

Ben Shelton has looked very comfortable on this surface all season thanks to a booming serve, but he will also believe that he can get more joy out of the return after recent results.

One of those was a dominant win over Adrian Mannarino in Toronto on his way to the title when Ben Shelton created 8 Break Points and managed to convert three of them.

This is a potentially awkward line if Adrian Mannarino is playing at his best, but Ben Shelton is going to dictate the tempo of the match. With the New York City crowd firmly behind him, Shelton should be able to come through this match in three or four sets and that should be good enough to put him in a position to cover this handicap line too.

Carlos Alcaraz - 8.5 games v Luciano Darderi: In terms of the World Rankings, this is the toughest kind of match that Carlos Alcaraz could face in the Third Round against an Unseeded player in the draw.

However, Luciano Darderi is up to World Number 34 in the World Rankings thanks to some really strong results on the clay courts.

It has been much tougher for the Italian when playing on the hard courts- he had lost seven of nine matches played on the surface in 2025, although there will be some confidence coming from the fact he has won twice in the US Open main draw.

The problem for Luciano Darderi is that he has not faced much competition with both wins being against players Ranked outside the top 100 and this is a significantly tougher test as compatriot Mattia Bellucci found out in the Second Round.

Carlos Alcaraz was also a pretty strong winner in the First Round after putting Reilly Opelka to the sword in straight sets.

The World Number 2 will have seen the form that Jannik Sinner has been displaying early in the US Open tournament and Carlos Alcaraz will want to make a statement of his own.

He should pretty comfortable in the match up against an opponent who has struggled to find his rhythm on the return of serve on the hard courts, but who has also only been winning 60% of points behind serve. That has given opponents the chance to put Luciano Darderi under pressure and it has led to some pretty comprehensive defeats on the hard courts over the course of the year.

Luciano Darderi's numbers on the hard courts when facing top 100 Ranked opponents are really concerning and he could be the latest Italian that falls by the wayside without putting in much of a dent in the Carlos Alcaraz push towards the Final.

The line is bigger than the Third Round and that will partly be down to the very impressive win that Carlos Alcaraz produced against Mattia Bellucci.

It doesn't take much for things to go wrong for a favourite with a line like this one, but Carlos Alcaraz is trying to turn the talk from his new hairstyle to the tennis being produced and another impressive performance is expected from the Number 2 Seed in New York City.

Frances Tiafoe - 1.5 sets v Jan-Lennard Struff: Early losses in Toronto and Cancun pushed Jan-Lennard Struff's losing run to eight matches on the hard courts and the World Number 144 entered the US Open with very little expectation.

He dropped one set in winning three Qualifiers and Jan-Lennard Struff deserves a lot of credit for backing up those victories to secure two more in the main draw.

The Second Round upset of Holger Rune in five sets will have given the 35 year old a huge amount of confidence in what has been a tough year on this surface. He will have benefited from playing that match in an emotional atmosphere and Struff will also benefit from a day of rest after spending well over three hours on the court in that upset of Rune.

It is never easy to back up those results and Jan-Lennard Struff is going to be facing Frances Tiafoe and the home crowd in this Third Round match.

The World Number 17 has had an inconsistent twelve months, while suffering two Second Round losses at the Australian Open and Wimbledon. Frances Tiafoe has reached the Quarter Final at the French Open and he will have been excited about coming into the final Grand Slam where he has had his best career results in the Majors by some distance.

He is looking to reach the Quarter Final for the fourth year in a row in New York City and Frances Tiafoe has reached the Semi Final in 2022 and 2024.

Frances Tiafoe has only dropped a single set in two matches in the US Open and he will certainly feel there is more room for improvement as he looks to peak towards the end of the tournament.

Previous matches between the players have been very competitive and it is Jan-Lennard Struff who holds the Grand Slam win over Frances Tiafoe, which came at the French Open in 2020. When that match was played, the German was significantly higher in the World Rankings compared with Frances Tiafoe and that switch around should show up on the scoreboard in this Third Round contest.

Every set is expected to be competitive, but Frances Tiafoe can find a way to win key points and move through to yet another Fourth Round in New York City without needing a decider.

Elena Rybakina - 2.5 games v Emma Raducanu: Two former Grand Slam Champions are facing off in this big Third Round match at the US Open and the winner will have a lot of belief in finishing up this tournament with the trophy in hand.

Emma Raducanu has done that before back in 2021 when she ran through the Qualifying and main draw in New York City without dropping a set. Many of her supporters feel the level being produced in the lead up to the 2025 US Open is the best and most consistent that Emma Raducanu has produced since unexpectedly winning the title here.

However, Emma Raducanu has put together a 3-3 record when facing top 50 Ranked players in Washington, Montreal and Cincinnati, although the loss at the last of those events was a positive one all things considered. She had pushed Aryna Sabalenka all the way in that defeat, but Raducanu was well beaten by Amanda Anisimova in Montreal and she is facing another big serving, hard hitting opponent.

Elena Rybakina has reached the Semi Final in both Montreal and Cincinnati, but she has failed to produce her best tennis in those moments.

This is a very big match for Rybakina, but she has produced some solid results on the hard courts throughout this season and will feel she has the power to hit through Emma Raducanu.

The British player has a 1-4 record on the hard courts when facing top ten Ranked opponents this season.

She has had some competitive matches, but Emma Raducanu has lost three of those five matches pretty comfortably. This is a Grand Slam where the memories have been positive thanks to that Championship in 2021, but Raducanu had not won matches in New York City until this tournament and it feels like Elena Rybakina might just have too much firepower for the former Champion in what could be the match of the day.

MY PICKS: Ben Shelton - 5.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 8.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Elena Ryabkina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

US Open Update: 13-8, + 5.24 Units (41 Units Staked, + 12.78% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2024 (Thursday 29th August)

Tough conditions can really make it very difficult for the players to produce their best tennis and those competing and those paying to attend the US Open will be glad to hear that cooler temperatures are set to hit New York City.

This should make it easier for players to lift their level of tennis and Day 4 will bring the conclusion of the Second Round.

As we move further into the event, the quality of matches should naturally improve.

The selections for Day 4 are in this thread and the US Open numbers will be updated after Day 3 is completed.

Arthur Fils - 1.5 sets v Gabriel Diallo: There is plenty of big hopes for Arthur Fils as the next big star of French Tennis, but he is still lacking a bit of experience as far as Grand Slam tournaments are concerned. He has played in a number of those, but Wimbledon last month was the first time he has moved past the Second Round and he is a favourite to do that again.

Of course being a favourite doesn't mean anything and this is going to be a tough match against Gabriel Diallo, a young Canadian who has come through the Qualifying Rounds. Beating Jaume Munar in the First Round will have given Diallo further belief, while the comfort of playing on the hard courts should help in the confidence department.

However, it should be noted that a lot of the successes that Gabriel Diallo has had have been on the Challenger Tour rather than the main ATP Tour. He was beaten by Karen Khachanov in the Canadian Masters earlier this month and that has dropped Diallo's record to 0-4 when facing top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2024.

The serve has not been the issue in all honesty, but Gabriel Diallo has massively struggled on the return and has broken in just 5% of return games played against those top 100 Ranked opponents. The concern has to be that only one of those opponents were Ranked higher than where Arthur Fils is Ranked right now and the Frenchman has to believe he has the tennis to win the key points to come through this match in three or four sets.

Arthur Fils has a serve that has been well protected, while he has broken in 19% of return games played on the hard courts. Those numbers look very impressive when only considering hard court matches that Fils has played against players Ranked outside of the top 50 and he has won nine of those ten matches, while breaking in 29% of return games played.

This is key to the outcome of this Second Round match and Arthur Fils has the ability to make sure he is solid enough at the important moments to progress to the Third Round for the first time at the US Open.

Jack Draper - 7.5 games v Facundo Diaz Acosta: He reached his career best World Ranking back in April and that perhaps underlines the feeling that Facundo Diaz Acosta would be much happier playing on the clay courts than any other surface.

Over the last twelve months, the numbers have been night and day when comparing Facundo Diaz Acosta on the clay and on the hard courts and this period of the season may soon be forgotten. He had lost five hard court matches in a row before beating Hugo Gaston in the US Open First Round, and that includes losing early in Washington and Canada.

You cannot completely dismiss Facundo Diaz Acosta as a threat- as recently as 2021 he had a winning record in hard court matches and had actually played strong tennis. However, his record is 7-11 since the start of 2022 and Diaz Acosta's hopes of using the lefty serve as something of an advantage may not be as clear when facing a fellow southpaw in this one.

Jack Draper is the next man up as far as British Tennis is concerned after Andy Murray's retirement and both Daniel Evans and Cameron Norrie perhaps already past their best. The twenty-two year old has reached a career high World Ranking mark this month and is Seeded in the US Open, although he has been hoping to move past some controversy after a win over Felix Auger-Aliassime in Cincinnati earlier this month.

While being absolutely clear that he did not 'cheat', there has been some suggestions that Draper employed some gamesmanship in the win over Auger-Aliassime on the controversial Match Point, and that is perhaps weighing on him. You would not have thought that in his comfortable First Round win, but Draper had lost in the next Round in Cincinnati after the drama and the fans in New York City are quite quick to turn on players.

Ultimately this is a match that should see Jack Draper able to work his way into the tournament without being on a major show court. That has to be a help, not a hindrance, and Draper has shown his comfort on this surface throughout 2024.

While not always looking like the most convincing of return players, Jack Draper has broken in 25% of return games played on the hard courts this season. He should be able to exert plenty of pressure on his Second Round opponent and that is likely going to see the British Number 1 come through with an impressive victory to back up the opening win.

Naomi Osaka - 1.5 games v Karolina Muchova: There have been moments when Naomi Osaka has looked close to her best, but the consistency is the key if she is going to move back to the level she once was displaying on the Tour. The hard courts in particular were the favoured domain of Osaka and four Grand Slam titles on this surface means she would have been a player that most wanted to avoid in the early Rounds.

Number 10 Seeded Jelena Ostapenko drew the short straw and it was a crushing performance from Naomi Osaka who won very, very easily. The serve proved to be a big weapon for the former World Number 1 and a couple more wins will really help Naomi Osaka in her bid to improve her current Number 88 mark.

This is a tough test for Naomi Osaka, even if Karolina Muchova has had an injury hit year which has seen her own World Ranking drop out of the top 50. Only twelve months ago, Muchova was a member of the top ten of the World Rankings, to underline the lack of tennis she has played in recent months and the Czech player is in the same boat as Naomi Osaka in trying to find the consistency that took her into the upper echelons of the World Rankings.

A solid First Round win was secured, and Karolina Muchova did reach the Final in Palermo on a clay court in the build up to the Paris Olympics. However, she is just 2-2 after the First Round win since that run to the Final and Muchova may struggle with the power edge that Naomi Osaka will bring to the court.

There is so much to like about Muchova and the efforts she puts into matches on the Tour, while it is hard to ignore the fact she has gotten the most out of her talent. She is a solid hard court player at her best and did take a set from the in-form Jessica Pegula in a defeat in Cincinnati, but Naomi Osaka's serve could prove to be the difference in a match between two players searching to find their best.

At key times, the ability to perhaps muster one or two cheaper points may prove decisive for Naomi Osaka as she makes her way through another Round.

Diana Shnaider - 4.5 games v Clara Tauson: One of the players who have really improved over the last twelve months will be playing in the women's draw and still going relatively under the radar. That is a surprise considering Diana Shnaider is now a top 20 player, but the 20 year old is probably quite happy to be left alone to focus on developing and improving her tennis.

Twelve months ago, Diana Shnaider had to try and Qualify for the US Open and was beaten in the Second Qualifying Round, and being a Seed in 2024 shows how well she has played in the time between tournaments.

A run to the Semi Final in Toronto and a decent follow up in Cincinnati will have given Shnaider a lot of belief to take into the US Open and she dropped just one game in the First Round. The challenges will become a lot tougher going forward though and Shnaider will be aware of the qualities of Clara Tauson.

Another youngster, Clara Tauson has perhaps not pushed on as much as expected as injuries have perhaps held her back. The Dane is just 21 years old, but has dropped from her career best mark down to World Number 67 over the last two years, and she has been very reliant on her strong first serve on this surface this year.

If failing to hit that, Clara Tauson will find Diana Shnaider attacking her second serve and that in turn will put additional pressure on the return game. The younger of the two players will still believe there is room for improvement in her own return game, but Shnaider may feel more comfortable protecting her own second serve in what should be a fun match.

One additional factor is that Clara Tauson is 1-6 against top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts in 2024 and the Dane was pretty well beaten in those matches in Toronto and Cincinnati. The second serve numbers and return numbers have been dented compared with her overall mark when looking at those seven matches and Diana Shnaider may have the confidence to secure a strong win, even after the ups and downs that are likely to be a feature of the match.

Beatriz Haddad Maia - 4.5 games v Sara Sorribes Tormo: The match did not start as expected, but Beatriz Haddad Maia grew through the second and third set and was a comfortable winner when all was said and done. This has backed up her strong run in Cleveland in the last tournament prior to the US Open getting underway and this should be a good match up for her.

Take nothing away from Sara Sorribes Tormo who feels like an overachiever as a Singles player that reached World Number 32, but her best tennis days look to be behind her. She has dropped out of the top 100 these days and the draw was a very kind one for the Spaniard that allowed her to come through her First Round match against a young American player.

There has been very little winning in recent weeks before the US Open and Sara Sorribes Tormo is just 4-9 on the hard courts in 2024 when including the First Round win. Her serve is extremely vulnerable and Sorribes Tormo perhaps does not have the same kind of energy to get around court and play her defensive brand of tennis as she once did.

It has led to 40% of return points won, which is considerably down on recent years and now Sara Sorribes Tormo has to deal with an awkward serve in this Second Round match.

The lefty serve is always a dangerous weapon for players on the Tour and Beatriz Haddad Maia will make use of that, while her own return game will benefit from facing what is a pretty weak serve coming from the other side of the net. This is a player that has given the Brazilian some problems in the past, which means Haddad Maia should arrive on the court with a healthy respect for Sara Sorribes Tormo, even if the higher Ranked player has won the last two between them.

This is a big spread when you think of some of the inconsistent performances we have seen from Beatriz Haddad Maia, but the match should be played on her racquet. That is key and Haddad Maia have the qualities to eventually pull away for a big victory on the day as she progresses through to the Third Round.

MY PICKS: Arthur Fils - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jack Draper - 7.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Diana Shnaider - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Beatriz Haddad Maia - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

US Open Update: 8-5, + 3.76 Units (26 Units Staked, + 14.46% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2023 (August 29th)

Out of the four Grand Slam events, the scheduling of the US Open always seems to make it feel like we see a few more surprising results early in the tournament.

That has been the case on Day 1 of the tournament with the First Round underway and a number of Seeds have been eliminated, while others had difficulties in winning matches.

It is perhaps the main reason that I have talked myself out of some selections and even then it was a tough opening day for the Tennis Picks.

Day 2 is another relatively quiet day for the selections, but much more is expected from them than the earlier Picks were able to give back.

Jannik Sinner - 8.5 games v Yannick Hanfmann: Winning one of the two Masters events played in the lead up to the US Open will have given Jannik Sinner a boost in confidence and this is clearly a genuine threat to the hopes of fans wanting to see Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic meet in the US Open Final in a couple of weeks time.

He has been a solid hard court player since the start of the 2021 season and Jannik Sinner came very close to beating Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open twelve months ago. Taking the next step at the Grand Slam level is the challenge for Sinner, but he is more than capable of doing that and it will take a big effort to put him out of the tournament.

It is very unlikely that Yannick Hanfmann will have the tennis to do that against Jannik Sinner in this First Round contest in the Night Session on Louis Armstrong on Day 2 of the tournament. While Yannick Hanfmann has reached a career high World Ranking last month, the most effective tennis has been played on the clay courts and it has been a considerable challenge for the German when he has been faced by the top 100 opponents on this surface.

Over the course of the season, Yannick Hanfmann has lost all five matches played against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and it has to be a concern that none of those have been against the likes of Jannik Sinner.

The serve has not been nearly as effective as Yannick Hanfmann would have hoped in those matches against stronger opponents, while he is simply not able to find enough quality returns to make up for those struggles. Against an opponent like Jannik Sinner, it is going to be very difficult for Yannick Hanfmann to have an impact to win the match, although it is a different question when it comes to covering this spread.

It is a wide number and one that a break of serve or two for Yannick Hanfmann would make it almost impossible for Jannik Sinner to cover.

However, the Italian has all of the tools to break down the Hanfmann game over the course of two hours on the court and he should enjoy the atmosphere on this court. The quality of tennis is not in doubt and a clinical match can be produced by Jannik Sinner which will see him get into a position to earn enough break points that enables him to cover this mark.

Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 sets v Yoshihito Nishioka: You may wonder what kind of motivating factors keep Stan Wawrinka out competing on the tennis courts around the world, but it is clearly something he loves to do. At 38 years old, Stan Wawrinka is not the same player that won multiple Grand Slam titles, but he still believes he has more to give and that is the main reason he is still competing.

A couple of wins in Cincinnati will have given Stan Wawrinka some confidence and he has produced some decent numbers on the hard courts this year.

The form has been decent enough to take Stan Wawrinka back into the top 50 of the World Rankings having begun the season at Number 148 and this looks a First Round match that he will be expected to win. He looks to have landed in a decent little section of the draw and Wawrinka will be looking to at least reach the Third Round where Jannik Sinner will be expected to stand in his way.

Overlooking Yoshihito Nishioka would be a mistake and this is a player who is capable of producing an upset in any tournament he takes part in.

However, Yoshihito Nishioka has had a difficult year and he has lost eight of his last nine matches on the hard courts. His preparation for the US Open has not been impressive and Nishioka has not really looked the same player after picking up an injury at the French Open.

You would have expected better from Yoshihito Nishioka when it comes to the return of serve, but that has not always been the case when looking at his performances against top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface. The serve can be vulnerable at times and Nishioka has lost ten of sixteen hard court matches on the har courts against top 100 Ranked opponents this year.

The Stan Wawrinka return is not exactly a dominant part of his tennis, but the Swiss player has the stronger serve of the two players. Confidence levels can be a difference maker in these kind of matches and Wawrinka looks to have a bit more belief in his tennis right now and can find a way to work his way through to the Second Round in three or four sets.

Jessica Pegula - 4.5 games v Camila Giorgi: One American won the Cincinnati Masters when Coco Gauff took home the title, while another one in Montreal where the Canadian Masters were played.

That player, Jessica Pegula, will enter the US Open as the World Number 3 and there will be plenty of fans arriving at the grounds expecting her to have a very deep run at the US Open. She has been a late bloomer on the WTA Tour and at 29 years old Jessica Pegula may be entering the peak years of her career, while a real breakthrough at Grand Slam level may open the door for so much more to come.

Jessica Pegula has reached the Quarter Final in six of the last eleven Grand Slam tournaments played, but she has not yet been able to take the next step and play in a Semi Final. The defeat to eventual Wimbledon Champion Marketa Vondrousova will have frustrated Jessica Pegula considering she was a point away from taking a double break lead in the deciding set in that Quarter Final, while the defeat to Victoria Azarenka in the Quarter Final at the Australian Open will have been in a match that Pegula will have expected to win.

Those demons will have to be exorcised later in this tournament, but Jessica Pegula has shown she can work her way through to the second week of these Grand Slam events.

A First Round match against Camila Giorgi is going to be a tough challenge for Jessica Pegula and especially if the Italian is anywhere near her best form. She did come through the Qualifiers and then won a main draw match in Montreal, but Giorgi was forced to withdraw during her First Qualifying Round match in Cincinnati.

For all of her talents, Camila Giorgi has lost nine of her last ten matches against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts and that includes losses in all four matches played this season. Camila Giorgi's serve has been vulnerable in those matches in 2023, while her aggressive style of tennis can lead to plenty of errors and Giorgi has not returned nearly well enough in those defeats.

A poor record against Jessica Pegula will not inspire much more confidence and it should be noted that Camila Giorgi would not have covered with this handicap start in any of those four defeats to top 20 Ranked opponents on this surface in 2023.

Jessica Pegula is a perfect 12-0 against players Ranked outside the top 50 on the hard courts this season and she would have covered this handicap mark in eleven of those wins. The Arthur Ashe crowd will be looking for a strong start from the American who is considered one of the favourites to win the title and Jessica Pegula can respond in kind with a strong win against a decent opponent.

Qinwen Zheng - 4.5 games v Nadia Podoroska: There are a lot of very competitive matches in the First Round of the women's Singles at the US Open, but this feels like an opportunity for Qinwen Zheng to get off to a strong start.

There is a lot of potential to be fulfilled by Qinwen Zheng as long as she can stay healthy going forward and she has some solid hard court numbers including picking up three wins in the Masters events played in preparation for the US Open.

Both of the defeats have been to players Ranked higher than herself and Qinwen Zheng is 9-2 on the hard courts in matches where she has been the higher Ranked player in the match. The numbers have been impressive in those eleven matches and it looks a good chance for Zheng to make a strong start against someone who has not enjoyed playing on the hard courts.

Nadia Podoroska is a clay court specialist and she is just 1-4 in matches on the hard courts against opponents Ranked inside the top 100. The sole win was earned in Cleveland last week, but Podoroska has had some poor numbers against the better players on the Tour and she would not have made use of this many games on the handicap in the four losses.

She did upset Christina McHale on the hard courts of the Australian Open in 2021, although Nadia Podoroska was the higher Ranked player of the two on the day. However, three other losses have been suffered against top 100 Ranked players in the Grand Slams played on the hard courts and Qinwen Zheng should have too much in this First Round contest.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 8.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Qinwen Zheng - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

US Open Update: 1-4, - 6.5 Units (10 Units Staked, - 65% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2022 (August 29th)

The US Open begins on Monday and the tournament looks wide open on both the Men's and Women's side of the draws.

That feeling is backed up by the surprising names that have won the big titles in Canada and Cincinnati this past month and I do think we could have another in New York City over the next fortnight. In recent years, the US Open has been the hardest Grand Slam to predict with it being played eight months into a long season on the Tour and I do think that has to be noted.

No Novak Djokovic is a blow to the tournament, but defending Champions Daniil Medvedev and Emma Raducanu will be in action. In fact, the Men's tournament has three defending Champions in action in Medvedev, Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem as all play for the first time in New York City since lifting the US Open title.

Daniil Medvedev - 9.5 games v Stefan Kozlov: The defending Champion has arguably not been the same threat on the hard courts since blowing the Australian Open Final against Rafael Nadal. He will still be considered one of the favourites to win the title when the US Open gets underway on Monday, but Daniil Medvedev will know he will have to be better than what we have largely seen in the build towards New York City.

An early loss at the Canadian Masters was followed by a disappointing defeat in the Semi Final in Cincinnati, but Daniil Medvedev did win the title in Los Cabos.

The First Round should be a relatively serene moment for most of the top players in the draw and Daniil Medvedev will be a strong favourite to not only move through, but to do so without dropping a set.

He will be facing a home hope in Stefan Kozlov who has not really pushed on as a professional in the manner he would have hoped. At 24 years old, Stefan Kozlov has yet to crack the top 100 in the World Rankings and the numbers being produced on the hard courts suggest it would be an almost historic upset if he was to beat the defending Champion in the First Round.

The return of serve can be a strength for Stefan Kozlov, but his own serve has not been as effective as he would have liked and I do think he will be put under pressure by Daniil Medvedev and his ability to get balls in play and nullify rallies before turning into the offensive player.

With a much superior serve, Daniil Medvedev could have plenty of freedom to attack the Stefan Kozlov serve and I think that will help the World Number 1 win the match and by a comfortable margin on the scoreboard. In his run to the title here last season, Daniil Medvedev made easy work of his early opponents and I do think the defending Champion can lay a marker down early at the US Open in 2022.

Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 games v JJ Wolf: As a player that is pretty happy on the hard courts and who has reached the Quarter Final at the Australian Open, it is perhaps a surprise to note that Roberto Bautista Agut has not made it to the second week at the US Open since 2015.

He looks to have an opportunity to have a good run in 2022, especially after putting some decent efforts together at the Canadian and Cincinnati Masters. However, at 34 years old, Roberto Bautista Agut may have had his best days even if he is still a top 20 Ranked player.

Matches like this one should still be very winnable for Roberto Bautista Agut, although he is going to have to deal with the home crowd who will be firmly in JJ Wolf's corner. The young American has reached a career best World Ranking this month, but three straight losses on the hard courts is far from ideal for a player that is making his second appearance in the main draw at his home Grand Slam.

On his first appearance in 2020, JJ Wolf did reach the Third Round, but the crowds will feel much different in 2022 as the US Open is once again played in front of full capacity crowds. That brings a different pressure on those on the courts and I do think JJ Wolf will find it tough against someone as experienced as Roberto Bautista Agut.

Both have produced similar kinds of numbers behind the serve, but Roberto Bautista Agut has had the edge when it comes to the returning side of his tennis and that was also the case when these two met in Indian Wells earlier this season.

The match lasted well over three hours and was relatively tight on the scoreboard, but Roberto Bautista Agut created 18 break points on the day compared with JJ Wolf's 8. The Spaniard was simply not as efficient with the big points, but he did win 10% more points behind serve and it won't take a lot for those numbers to lead to a much wider win.

With a bit more confidence behind him having put some wins on the board over this summer series, I do think Roberto Bautista Agut will break down the JJ Wolf game and he can cover this big mark on his way through to the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 9.5 Games @ 1.61 Bet365 (2 Units)

Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Pablo Carreno Busta - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Emil Ruusuvuori @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Francisco Cerundolo @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tommy Paul - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Daria Kasatkina - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekend Football and Fantasy Football GameWeek 3 Picks 2021 (August 28-29)

I am going to be having a really busy week in the lead up to the final Premier League weekend to be played in August 2021, but I have managed to put a thread together which can go live on Friday.

Ultimately I am someone that usually loves to wait to make his transfers so I can have the full information of the week behind me, but that has not been the case this week.

After the international break things should settle down considerably.

Manchester City v Arsenal Pick: There were some surprisingly strong teams selected by Premier League clubs playing in the League Cup Second Round, but some of those were understandable as managers looked for a bounce to take into the final Premier League fixtures of August.

After a very difficult start and with the pressure mounting, Mikel Arteta picked a very strong Arsenal team for the Cup tie at West Brom. The home team had a complete overhaul of their usual eleven and Arsenal took advantage as they hammered West Brom 0-6 to give the squad a boost.

Goalless and pointless after two Premier League games, Mikel Arteta needed a big result if only to ease the pressure ahead of this fixture. It is probably the one game that Arsenal would not have wanted to play after their poor start in the League and there are still some key players missing which only increases the difficulty in trying to earn a result at the Etihad Stadium.

Manchester City snapped a rare 3 game losing run in their win over Norwich City and it was a surprise to see the Champions fail to score in any of those defeats. Missing out on Harry Kane is a blow, but Pep Guardiola will feel his team is capable of finding a person to lead the line from within the squad and Manchester City showed they can cope in that situation for much of last season.

I do think it makes Manchester City potentially vulnerable in their defence of the title, but this is a team that can create plenty of chances in their current mould. I expect that to be the case against Arsenal who allowed Chelsea to dominate proceedings in their final third, although at least they won't be facing a striker like Romelu Lukaku to bully the defence this weekend.

Even then, Manchester City should be comfortable going up against the system that Mikel Arteta is trying to implement at Arsenal. This is a squad of players that know their roles and Manchester City have been very strong at home under Pep Guardiola.

Both Premier League games between the teams were tight last season, but Manchester City had won the previous 3 home games against Arsenal pretty comfortably. I think that could be the case this weekend too and I expect Manchester City to win by a couple of goals in the early kick off on Saturday.

Aston Villa v Brentford Pick: Thomas Frank is likely to be much happier than Dean Smith with the opening points on the board, but the latter will have seen his Aston Villa team rally from the opening defeat to Watford.

That will be pleasing for Dean Smith and the squad can now begin to move on past Jack Grealish and his move to Manchester City. A comfortable win over Barrow in the League Cup Second Round was almost expected, but it is Aston Villa's win over Newcastle United at Villa Park in the Premier League which will have shown the players they can cope with their top player from last season and even build on their successes of the last campaign.

Aston Villa are back in front of their own fans this weekend, but they will want to show a little more creativity in their play. Penalties have been scored in each of the first two Premier League games, but Dean Smith will want to see more chances being created overall.

It is going to be a real test to do that against a Brentford team who have kept clean sheets against Arsenal and Crystal Palace in their first season in the Premier League. Thomas Frank has organised his team very well and they have limited the amount of chances being allowed, but Brentford are still finding their feet as a consistent attacking threat and it will perhaps leave them a little vulnerable away from home.

The Bees will look to press their opponent and they have played well enough in the Premier League in the first couple of games to think they can perform at this level. They also have a little more consistency in the squad which means players are much more comfortable with the roles they are being asked to do and that could make things difficult for their hosts.

However, I do think Danny Ings is a huge signing for Aston Villa and he is a difference maker in the final third. His finishing is proven at this level compared with Ivan Toney for Brentford and I think Danny Ings can make the difference on the day with a slight lean for Aston Villa to earn another home League victory.

It will be far from easy and Brentford are not going to lie down for any opponent they face, but Aston Villa have plenty going for them and I think being at home will prove to be the key towards the three points.

Brighton v Everton Pick: There is plenty to be excited about for both Brighton and Everton fans after the early performances in the 2021/22 season and both teams will be confident they can earn a positive result to take into the upcoming two week break.

Last season Brighton seemingly lacked confidence in the final third which prevented them from operating much higher up the League standings. Graham Potter is confident in his philosophy and the Brighton players have responded with two good wins to open this season, although they were perhaps a little fortunate to beat Burnley on the opening weekend.

This is a team that plays some very good football and Brighton do create chances, but they will know Rafael Benitez is likely going to have Everton pretty well organised.

We have yet to really see that from the Spanish manager when you note that Everton have failed to produce a clean sheet, but The Toffees have restricted Southampton and Leeds United to few really good chances. That has to be encouraging for the manager, especially as Everton have looked pretty dangerous going forward.

Creating chances at the Amex Stadium won't be easy for Everton though and this has all of the makings of a really competitive fixture with little between the teams. The injuries in the Brighton defensive areas has to be something Everton look to exploit though and Rafael Benitez' team have scored at least twice in all 3 games played this season.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin looks like he will really enjoy playing for Everton and the system has been one that is getting a bit more out of some of the players at the disposal of the club. Rafael Benitez might not have been the choice of many of the fans of the club, but I think his Everton team have been a little better than Brighton in the first couple of fixtures and they can at least match the point earned from the trip down south last season.

If Brighton are missing Neal Maupay and Danny Welbeck you do have to wonder if they have enough of an attacking threat to break down Everton here. Set pieces are always dangerous for Brighton, but Everton are not a small team and I think the visitors can be backed with a start on the Asian Handicap to earn any kind of positive result here.

Newcastle United v Southampton Pick: Both Steve Bruce and Ralph Hasenhuttl may feel there is a difficult season in front of their Newcastle United and Southampton teams and so games like this one are going to be vitally important for them if they are going to avoid the drop.

Nothing we have seen from the first month of the new season suggests that the pre-season expectations for both clubs are too wide of the mark.

Southampton at least earned a big League Cup win during the week to build some confidence, but they have lost key players this summer and there is a pressure on the team. Their away form has been tremendously poor in the Premier League in 2021 and Southampton are a team that have given up some huge chances in their first couple of Premier League games.

Despite the defeats, Newcastle United have been creating chances and it is only their own defensive vulnerabilities that have held them back. Better finishing would have seen them beat Burnley in the League Cup, while Newcastle United didn't play that terribly in the defeat to Aston Villa last weekend.

I do think that offers some encouragement, while Newcastle United have also got the better of Southampton at home in recent seasons.

Both teams will create chances considering the defensive performances we have seen from Newcastle United and Southampton. The Southampton away record going back to last season doesn't offer a lot of encouragement and they were beaten at Everton a couple of weeks ago.

The first goal is going to be absolutely massive in this fixture, but I do think Newcastle United have performed better than their early results will suggest. On the other hand Southampton are a little fortunate to even have a point on the board and I think Newcastle United will find a way to win this one.

However, it would be smarter to keep this to the Asian Handicap which will mean returning any stake in the event of a draw.

Norwich City v Leicester City Pick: These two teams conceded nine times in the Premier League last weekend and both Norwich City and Leicester City will be looking to bounce back when they face one another on Saturday afternoon at Carrow Road.

It has been a tough return to the Premier League for Norwich City who played well in their 0-3 home defeat to Liverpool, but looked shell-shocked in the 5-0 defeat to Manchester City last weekend. That does mean they have gotten two difficult fixtures off the list, but Daniel Farke is going to have to work hard to make the players believe that they are able to perform at this level having struggled to 21 points in the Premier League two seasons ago.

A thumping win over Bournemouth in the League Cup Second Round will be a confidence booster for Norwich City, but the manager will need his side to be a little more ruthless when the chances come up. They missed some big ones against Liverpool on the opening weekend, but one of the bigger concerns for Norwich City has to be the amount of big chances they have given up.

The question is whether Leicester City can expose the backline in the same manner as the two previous Champions have been able to do and their early form is not so encouraging. Brendan Rodgers has seen his team pick up 3 points, but they were fortunate to beat Wolves at home and on Monday Leicester City looked well off the pace as they were overwhelmed and eventually worn down by West Ham United.

Losing a player in the first half did not help, but Leicester City were already looking like they were struggling with the intensity of the home team. Now they have to face a Norwich City team who are going to be intense, especially early, and a home crowd that will be pumped after the big Cup win during the week.

Even then you do have to think Leicester City have enough quality in the final third to cause problems for The Canaries and I can see both teams having enough about them to get on the scoreboard. A draw would not be the worst result for Norwich City, but Daniel Farke only has his team play one way and that should mean this is an attacking game.

Two seasons ago there were two low scoring Premier League games between these clubs, but I think this will buck that trend considering the early performances of both Norwich City and Leicester City. Neither team has looked very sure defensively and that may be music to the ears of the attacking players and I think the teams could share out three goals on the day.

West Ham United v Crystal Palace Pick: He was ridiculed for his time managing Manchester United and I do believe David Moyes will privately admit he got plenty wrong in his short time overseeing things at Old Trafford. However, 'The Chosen One' has rebuilt his reputation in the seven years since being sacked as manager of Manchester United and his time with West Ham United has been particularly special.

David Moyes was once reigniting Everton as a big Premier League club and he is more than doing the same for West Ham United have taken them to their highest League finish in twenty-one years last season. Building on that was always going to be a challenge, but West Ham United look plenty confident and scoring eight goals in 2 Premier League wins against Newcastle United and Leicester City only strengthens the belief within the playing squad.

Reinforcements may still be needed when West Ham United have to cope with the Thursday-Sunday Europa League-Premier League schedule, but for now this is a team flying and playing with swagger.

Said Benrahma looks to have learnt plenty from his first season in the Premier League, while the added physicality being allowed by the referees only makes Michail Antonio a bigger threat than he already was. Both players have been in stunning form to open this season and they are taking on a Crystal Palace team who have to be a little concerned with the start made under Patrick Vieira.

A point has been earned by Crystal Palace, but that came in a winnable home game against Brentford and Vieira still has to win over some of his critics. The defeat to Watford in the League Cup may not have hurt so much if the manager had made vast changes, but it was a strong Crystal Palace team that struggled to create chances and they have had issues in the final third.

Defensively Crystal Palace are still relatively organised, but they are going to have to perform at a high level to contain this rampant West Ham United team. The Hammers have been creating plenty of chances and have players from all around the front six that will feel they can finish when those come their way.

Last season Crystal Palace did earn a draw here, but this looks a tough ground to visit right now and West Ham United are motoring. The goals being scored by David Moyes' team are hard to ignore, but they haven't been fortunate to do that and have been creating plenty to suggest it can continue.

I expect Crystal Palace to try and work their hosts over on the counter attack, but this is a team that has struggled with the new identity that Patrick Vieira wants to instil in them. It is a work in progress and I think West Ham United will take advantage by securing a comfortable win on the day to make it three wins from three going into the first international break.

Liverpool v Chelsea Pick: There is no doubt which is the biggest game in the Premier League this weekend as two of the sides with a 100% record meet at Anfield.

The fact it is also a match between the 2020 Premier League Champions and the 2021 European Champions and both Liverpool and Chelsea will feel they have the capabilities of being crowned Champions next May. These are two clubs that will be chasing the big prizes and an early chance for Jurgen Klopp and Thomas Tuchel to lay down a marker for the kind of standards they expect from their teams over the next ten months.

Liverpool and Chelsea have really only done what was expected of them by beating Norwich City/Burnley and Crystal Palace/Arsenal respectively, but ultimately they have to be given credit for the six points they have produced. Other leading clubs have already dropped points so Liverpool and Chelsea will be feeling good about where they are going into the third round of fixtures in the Premier League, but both will also feel they have something to prove.

This is by far the biggest test either team will have played this season and I do think it is going to be an incredibly competitive fixture.

Liverpool look stronger with their defensive injuries cleared up and they should have their first choice back four together for the first time. Andrew Robertson has missed the first two games, but he was on the bench last week and another week of training should mean the Scottish international bolsters the Liverpool defence who have kept back to back clean sheets.

Now they will be looking to shut out Romelu Lukaku who scored on his second debut for Chelsea and Thomas Tuchel's men have really played very well through their first two games. This is just further proof of the improvement of the entire squad since Tuchel replaced Frank Lampard last January and Chelsea have won 7 of their 10 away Premier League games under the former Paris Saint-Germain manager.

Chelsea have won at Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal in the 10 Premier League away wins played with Thomas Tuchel at the helm, while they have also won at West Ham United in that time.

The Blues will feel they have the balance between attack and defence to pose considerable problems for Liverpool, although they will also acknowledge that the home team have fresh strikers that all look to be on top form in the first month of the 2021/22 season.

It makes this a tough fixture to call, but I do think the tactical acumen of Thomas Tuchel has been seen in the majority of Chelsea's big matches since January. The defeat in the FA Cup Final aside, Chelsea have had some huge wins over the top teams in the Premier League and they have a squad that has the winning mentality to make things very difficult for the narrow favourites Liverpool.

Not many teams can stand the pressure of Liverpool with a full Anfield behind them, especially this Liverpool under Jurgen Klopp. However, I do think Chelsea have the personnel and experience to at least weather the early storm and in the opening two fixtures it is the Chelsea defence which has looked stronger than the Liverpool one.

A single goal may be enough to win this fixture, but I think Chelsea are good enough to avoid defeat. Even if they fall behind, this is a deep squad that can make changes to shift the momentum of the match and I think Chelsea have been a little more impressive than Liverpool even though both teams will feel they have tougher tests to come than the first two League opponents faced.

The superior defence may make the difference on the day and I do think Chelsea have that with the approach of the manager. In a tough fixture, I think the visitors can do enough to contain Liverpool and give themselves every chance of picking up a positive result before the first international break of the season.

Burnley v Leeds United Pick: The first live Premier League game on Sunday comes from Turf Moor and both Burnley and Leeds United will be very keen to secure their first three points of the season.

The early performances have been somewhat encouraging despite the results and I think that could lead to a decent fixture. Defensively there are some questions to answer for both Burnley and Leeds United and that should mean the attacking players are able to have plenty of success in the fixture.

Burnley have perhaps been the team that has created the superior chances early in this season, but Leeds United have managed to score the goals. The quality in the away team cannot be dismissed and they are going to be capable of working chances against the Burnley defence which has struggled with their balance at times.

However, I also believe Burnley are going to cause problems with a physical approach that can cause issues for defenders who have become used to a sport that has taken some of the contact away in recent seasons. Having two up two is a system that teams rarely face these days too and that will give Burnley encouragement having fashioned good scoring opportunities against both Brighton and Liverpool.

The game at Elland Road didn't feature a lot of goals last season, but in May Leeds United crushed Burnley here. The fans should motivate the home team to better, and I do think both teams are able to score here.

It should be a fixture with plenty of chances created and I think there will be at least three goals shared out between them.

Tottenham Hotspur v Watford Pick: Two wins from two in the Premier League has given Nuno Espirito Santo a foundation to build upon in his time as the new manager of Tottenham Hotspur, but the biggest boost for the former Wolves manager is Harry Kane's commitment to the club.

Having Harry Kane leading the line will only strengthen Tottenham Hotspur's cause and they should have enough to see off Watford. I do think they have been a little fortunate to beat both Manchester City and Wolves, but confidence has to be improving in each passing match and they are expected to have too much for this Watford team.

You have to credit Watford for an immediate return to the top flight, but this is a squad that is vastly less dangerous playing away from home than they are at Vicarage Road. We have already seen signs of that this season after Watford beat Aston Villa at home and limply dropped a 2-0 defeat at Brighton.

Watford created very little at the Amex Stadium, while defensively they looked suspect at times.

It will be highly encouraging for Tottenham Hotspur as they look to take the game to Watford and I do think having Kane leading the line will only have the fans further behind the team. That should spark another strong result from Tottenham Hotspur as they make it three wins from three.

With the goals they look to have in the squad, I think Tottenham Hotspur are going to win this match by a comfortable margin too.

Wolves v Manchester United Pick: It may only be taking place in August, but this is a huge Premier League match for both Wolves and Manchester United who are coming off disappointing League results last Sunday.

Both managers will feel their team did enough to secure wins against Tottenham Hotspur and Southampton respectively, but Wolves were disappointingly beaten and Manchester United could only earn a point. The underlying numbers have been positive for both teams, but it is what they do on the pitch that will matter to two managers that could face plenty of criticism if the right results don't keep them off the hot seat.

Bruno Lage has to be pleased with the attacking football his Wolves team are playing, although the final touch has been missing. Big chances have come and gone, but Lage has to believe that things will turn in Wolves' favour if they can keep that form going and the 0-4 win at Nottingham Forest in the League Cup Second Round will be a jolt of confidence surging through the squad.

There is pace in the forward positions and Wolves also have talisman Raul Jimenez leading the line after a serious injury forced him to miss much of last season. Even then it will take some time for Jimenez to find his feet again and the key for Wolves is seeing other players step up and take the chances when they come.

Creating against Manchester United won't be easy even if the lack of clean sheets for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's men suggests otherwise. Both Leeds United and Southampton have needed something special to find the back of the net and Manchester United will believe they did more than enough in the final third to deserve more than they got.

Better finishing will be key for Manchester United as much as Wolves, but I think they can produce that at Molineux on Sunday. The home team will be dangerous with their new style and they may be facing a United team without Raphael Varane again which can only encourage Wolves to try and get forward.

3 of the last 5 between these clubs at Molineux have ended with at least three goals shared out since Wolves returned to the top flight in the 2018/19 season. An early goal would certainly spark the entire fixture in this one too as it did on the final day of last season and the new manager's approach for Wolves should make them more enjoyable to watch than they were at times under Nuno Espirito Santo.

Both teams will feel they can trouble the opposition goalkeeper, but both Wolves and Manchester United have been creating enough chances to believe they can come together and produce at least three goals on the day.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap

Aston Villa - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Everton + 0.25 Asian Handicap

Newcastle United 0 Asian Handicap

Norwich City-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals

West Ham United & Over 1.5 Goals

Chelsea + 0.25 Asian Handicap

Burnley-Leeds United Over 2.5 Goals

Tottenham Hotspur - 1 Asian Handicap

Wolves-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals

Fantasy Football GameWeek 3

I did not have a thread up last week (it's wedding season which limits time massively), but it was one in which I posted my team which had no changes from the opening weekend.

I was hoping to hold onto a transfer to carry across the international break, but after two weeks I do feel changes had to be made largely because I did not want to be on the wrong end of any significant price drops.

The likes of Ryan Bertrand, Harvey Barnes and Emiliano Buendia were all expected to drop this week, while I also feel there has to be some change in the mentality compared with last season in which I refused to get on board obvious bandwagons.

Both Bertrand and Barnes were the obvious players to move on and Said Benrahma the obvious replacement for the latter. I did think about bringing in a West Ham United defender too, but I don't think they have defended well enough and instead the focus was on a Tottenham Hotspur player considering the next two games they have on deck.

It also meant being able to put some money in the bank with a long-term goal of bringing in Romelu Lukaku once the Chelsea fixtures ease up. I do think I am going to have to either use my first Wild Card of the season after the October international break or I will have to give up one of the premium midfield options and right now both of those routes are very much available for me.

I don't want to look too far ahead as that can see a wide gap develop to the top players in the FPL, but it is something to keep in mind. For now the focus is making sure I can keep the positive start to the season going through another GameWeek and with another week of numbers to crunch before the next GW begins.

US Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2019 (August 29th)

With the format of the US Open and the time needed to put my thoughts down, I am going to make updates after the initial thread is posted.

For example in this case any update for the tournament will be placed on Thursday morning, although this thread is going to be posted with the Tennis Picks from the Second Round matches on Wednesday evening.

Hopefully the first day will get this tournament off on a good footing, but I will update my thoughts on how it went in the Friday Third Round thread.


Andrey Rublev - 4.5 games v Gilles Simon: Both Andrey Rublev and Gilles Simon came through very difficult First Round matches and the two players have to be hoping the one day between those and this Second Round match is enough for them to recover mentally and physically. The only positive is that it has not been as hot in New York City as it can be during the last Grand Slam of the season, but you can't ignore the fact that Rublev needed almost four hours to win his First Round match and Simon went over four hours to secure his own win.

One difference between the players is that Simon won a match he would have been expected to win, while Rublev also has to deal with all of the headlines that come with beating Stefanos Tsitsipas in the First Round. You do have to put some stock into that result as it can be difficult to back up upsets for those players further down the World Rankings, but Andrey Rublev might also be playing with a lot of belief.

Earlier this month Rublev beat Roger Federer at the Cincinnati Masters before falling to compatriot Daniil Medvedev and he also managed to reach the Quarter Final in Winston Salem in the week before the US Open began. The youngster also reached the Quarter Final at the US Open two years ago and I do think he will believe in his ability to win this match, although I am not always a big fan of opposing someone like Gilles Simon that can frustrate opponents who are not always aware of facing players like him.

Out of the two players Rublev does have a slight advantage over Simon in terms of the numbers produced on both the serve and return. In the last twelve months, Rublev has held 80% of service games played on the hard courts compared with Simon's 79%, while the Russian has broken in 25% of return games compared with Simon's 23%.

Those are fairly close, but in 2019 we have seen the improvements made by Rublev and a slight decline in the Simon numbers. It has also been a much better six weeks on the Tour for Rublev compared with the Frenchman who had been beaten in his first match in both Montreal and Cincinnati before overcoming Bjorn Fratangelo in the First Round at Flushing Meadows.

Only the win over Tsitsipas and having to deal with the expectation that comes with a big win is preventing me from being a little firmer in my belief that Andrey Rublev wins this match and covers the number. I can see there being some swings in momentum so I would be surprised if this is a straight sets win, but I would expect Rublev to create enough break point chances to cover the number even in a four set win.

Gilles Simon is a solid veteran, but I will look for Andrey Rublev to cover.


Nick Kyrgios - 6.5 games v Antonie Hoang: You can literally count on one hand the amount of times I have backed Nick Kyrgios over the last twelve months- I love watching this player and he is one of the few tennis players I actually follow on social media, but I have little doubt that you don't always know what you're going to get from him from match to match.

Winning the title in Washington was followed by two early exits in Montreal and Cincinnati and Nick Kyrgios is someone who isn't going to devote the time to the sport as others who have reached the very top of the game. He is talented and there is a potential Slam Champion in there, but Kyrgios has admitted himself he is not as professional as he should be and I don't think I being critical in saying that is a major reason I tend to avoid his matches.

At the end of the day Kyrgios isn't playing for everyone else so if you back him you have to take a personal responsibility in making that call. This Second Round match feels a good chance to do that when the Australian takes on Antonie Hoang, a player who has a peak Ranking of Number 98 in the World, although it came about at a time when it earned him a spot in the main draw of this Grand Slam.

Antonie Hoang has shown very little on the main Tour and his service numbers take a big dip in the matches that have taken place in main Tour matches on the hard courts. The return of serve is a decent weapon for the Frenchman, but it is going to be difficult to get a lot of joy out of the Nick Kyrgios serve if the latter is bringing his very best form to the court.

Over the last twelve months Nick Kyrgios has held 89% of service games played on the hard courts and he wins 69% of points played behind that shot. It certainly means chances are likely going to be limited for Antonie Hoang, but one of the main criticisms of the Kyrgios game has to be the limited success he has had when it comes to the return of serve.

In the same time period described above, Nick Kyrgios has only broken in 12% of return games which makes it difficult to believe he is capable of covering this number. However, he is facing an opponent who has held just 68% of service games played on the hard courts in main Tour matches so there may be more opportunities for him, while those break percentages improved markedly when the Australian has played opponents Ranked outside the top 50 (17% of return games resulting in a break in last twelve months) and those outside the top 100 (20% of return games resulting in a break).

Those numbers are a little more productive and I think Nick Kyrgios can get the better of this opponent. I imagine there will be a set where he is able to pull away for a strong scoreline that opens up the chance to cover the number and I will make a rare decision to back Nick Kyrgios to cover this mark.


Gael Monfils - 6.5 games v Marius Copil: The French Open has been the best of the Grand Slams for Gael Monfils as far as consistent results go, but he has matched the Semi Final run he had at his home Grand Slam by doing the same previously at the US Open.

Another win on Thursday would mean Monfils actually has won the second most Grand Slam matches at the US Open within in his own career and the Frenchman has been in good form on the hard courts throughout 2019. He already has the most wins in a single season on the hard courts since 2016 and Monfils has been producing some solid numbers after recording a comfortable straight sets win over Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the First Round.

Over the last twelve months Gael Monfils has held 85% of service games played on the hard courts, but the more impressive number is the 30% of return games ending in breaks of serve. That is going to make Monfils very dangerous, although I do think this is a player who might not have the mental strength to beat the very best players on the Tour.

Marius Copil is not one of those and I make Monfils a strong favourite to win this match. Over the last six weeks the Romanian is just 2-5 on the hard courts in the build up to the US Open and he needed five sets to knock off Ugo Humbert in the First Round with the current opponent a significant step up from his last one.

One of the main reasons Copil has been struggling for form on the hard courts has to be the decline in the levels he has produced behind the serve. Marius Copil has held 78% of service games played on the hard courts and that has put more pressure on what is a pretty limited return game.

He has also struggled when playing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months and I think Gael Monfils will have every chance of pulling away and covering this number. It is a big mark, but the best of five format should give Gael Monfils a chance to find a couple of breaks of serve within a set that should offer him an opportunity to move into the Third Round with a strong looking win on the day.


Alexander Zverev - 1.5 sets v Frances Tiafoe: 2019 has been a difficult year for Alexander Zverev and he is a player that is not someone that I particularly wanted to back too often. His numbers have not been too bad, but Zverev is lacking something mentally which is preventing him from winning matches in the fashion that may be expected.

It was more of the same in the First Round as he lost a 2-0 lead in sets in his eventual five set win over Radu Albot. The latter has not been playing badly on the hard courts, but Alexander Zverev is a top 10 Ranked player who would have been expected to put his foot down once getting into a commanding position, but instead has underlined some of the vulnerability around him at this moment in time.

A lot of the issues could be the lack of success at the very biggest moments in matches that have seen things slip through his fingers- Alexander Zverev has won 66% of points behind serve in 2019, but the German has 'only' held 80% of service games played and that has offered opponents the chance to become confident and earn an upset over him.

Overall Alexander Zverev is still playing pretty well and this is the kind of match he would be expecting to win as long as he can just clean up his play slightly. The fans will be behind Frances Tiafoe, but the young American has been average at best on the hard courts despite the obvious talent he possesses.

Over the last twelve months, Tiafoe has held 80% of service games played on the hard courts and he has broken in 19% of return games. Those numbers take a further dip when only considering matches against top 20 Ranked opponents and Tiafoe also is 1-3 in his head to head with Zverev, although they have only played once in two years.

In their head to head, Frances Tiafoe seems to find a way to have more success on the return than he enjoys overall, but his own serve has been attacked with confidence by Alexander Zverev. The American is only holding 68% of his service games against Zverev in their three hard court matches compared with the higher Ranked player being at 79% and I expect the difference in return of serve to be the difference on the day.

It is something of a risk expecting Alexander Zverev to win any match in a relatively straight-forward fashion when you think of his current form and vulnerabilities. However, I also think Frances Tiafoe is not as effective on the hard courts as some may believe and I will look for the top 10 player to come through in three or four sets.


Benoit Paire - 1.5 sets v Aljaz Bedene: There were some major things expected from Benoit Paire when he first burst onto the ATP Tour, but he has never really made the kind of impact people would have noted at the Grand Slam level. The Frenchman has yet to make the Quarter Final of any Slam, but he did reach the Fourth Round at both the French Open and Wimbledon in the last two Slams played in 2019 and Paire may be ready to take the next step in his career.

He is certainly a big enough favourite to win this Second Round match when taking on Aljaz Bedene who has not played much hard court tennis to prepare for the US Open. That did not stop Bedene from beating Jozef Kovalik in the First Round, but that was also only the fourth match played on the hard courts in 2019 at the main Tour level and Bedene had lost the previous three.

In the last twelve months Aljaz Bedene has only played seven matches at the main Tour level on the hard courts and he has held 72% of service games played and found a break in just under 16% of return games played. He is going to have to find a significant improvement in this Second Round match if he is going to earn the upset, but this has not been a good match up for Aljaz Bedene.

The Slovenian has a 3-4 record against Benoit Paire and both previous matches on the hard courts have been settled in favour of the latter. In those two hard court matches, Benoit Paire has held 86% of his service games played compared with Aljaz Bedene's 68% and that should give the favourite a mental advantage to take into the match.

Benoit Paire is a pretty average hard court player who perhaps does not make the most of his attributes on the surface and that does temper some enthusiasm to back him in this match. The numbers underline the fact that Paire is not as strong on the hard courts as he may be perceived to be and the 74% of service games being held on the surface over the last twelve months is a pretty disappointing number.

Where I expect Paire to have the edge is the fact that he has broken in 23% of return games which is significantly better than what Aljaz Bedene has been able to produce in the same time period. In their head to head it is the Paire return that has proven to be pivotal on the hard courts and I think he is going to be capable of moving through relatively comfortably in this Second Round match on Thursday.


John Isner-Jan-Lennard Struff over 43.5 games: The layers could set an over/under line of 4.5 breaks of serve in this Second Round match and I think plenty would be rushing out there to back the under in that spot. That is even when accounting for the fact that John Isner won his First Round match with breaks in each of the three sets played, and the fact that Jan-Lennard Struff managed plenty himself in his own straight sets win.

Those wins came against players who are perhaps not the best servers out there, but both Isner and Struff have to believe they have the serve to make it very difficult for the other to break them. There has been a significant improvement in the level of performances that Jan-Lennard Struff has produced and over the last twelve months he has held 85% of the service games played on this surface, while John Isner won't surprise anyone with his 92% number over the same time period.

Out of the two players it is Struff who has the superior returning numbers and that may give him a chance in any tie-breaker we get into, but Isner holds a mental edge with a 3-0 head to head record and I would be disappointed if we didn't see at least four sets played in this one.

If we do start getting to that stage, I would imagine at least two tie-breakers will be needed in this match and that would put the match in a very strong position to cover this number of games. Much is going to depend on the German as Jan-Lennard Struff will have to deal with the mental pressure of having to keep holding serve, something that John Isner has been used to throughout his career having always had a limited return game at best.

In their previous matches, which have all come on the hard courts, John Isner has yet to be broken by Jan-Lennard Struff. The latter has held 84% of his own service games, but he is 2-1 in the three tie-breakers played so my feeling is that this is a match that can be extended in four and possibly five sets.

With the way both of these players can serve, I would be stunned if sets are concluded with two or more breaks of serve to produce 6-0, 6-1, or 6-2 scores. It is going to be a warmer day on Thursday in New York City, but I don't believe either player is going to be dragged into long rallies which will physically tire them out, although the biggest fear is that the heat perhaps sees someone lose heart if they fall 2-0 behind in sets.

However if the first two sets are split like I would hope, I would be very surprised if we don't get into a position where the total games line is not surpassed in this one.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Nick Kyrgios - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
John Isner-Jan-Lennard Struff Over 43.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cori Gauff - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)