US Open Tennis Day 5 Picks 2025 (Thursday 28th August)

The withdrawal of Jack Draper has removed a genuine contender to win the US Open, but in the main the draw has avoided the big upsets that have come to be associated with the final Grand Slam of the season.

Most are building up nicely towards the second week, although there continue to be some concerns around Novak Djokovic who dropped a set in the Second Round before rallying. Even at 100%, you would make Djokovic third favourite behind the top two in the World Rankings, but if he is limited, it makes it almost impossible to believe that arguably the greatest player of all time will have enough to beat a number of the best players to earn a twenty-fifth Grand Slam title.

We move onto Day 5 at the tournament and that is the conclusion of the Second Round.

After the disappointment of Day 3, the Tennis Picks bounced back with five winners from seven selections made on Day 4 and that has pushed the totals up again.

The next set of selections are focusing on the men's tournament and those can be read below.

Tommy Paul - 5.5 games v Nuno Borges: It is easy to fly under the radar a little bit as an American player when you know the headlines are being made by the likes of Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton and Coco Gauff, but Tommy Paul is the World Number 14 and has shown plenty of his own ability on the Tour.

He has made the Quarter Final in Melbourne, Paris and London in his career and went a step further at the Australian Open in 2023.

However, Tommy Paul will be well aware that to get real notice in his home country that he has to have a big impact at the US Open and he has yet to progress past the Fourth Round here. In each of the last two seasons, Tommy Paul's run in New York City has ended in that Round, but having others take the early headlines does allow him to perform without the same sort of pressure that the 'bigger' names will have to deal with.

He only played in Cincinnati in preparation for the US Open and Tommy Paul won one match and lost another, but he was a strong winner in the First Round under the lights.

Next up is a match against Nuno Borges who has proven to be a stubborn player to beat, but one that has struggled for consistency in recent times.

Despite that, Nuno Borges does come into the US Open as the World Number 41 and so this is a tough Second Round match considering a few more wins might have seen the Portuguese player Seeded at the tournament. However, Nuno Borges failed to put significant runs together during this latest hard court swing and had lost three matches ina. row in Toronto, Cincinnati and Winston Salem before comfortably dismissing Brandon Holt in the First Round.

Nuno Borges has a 2-5 record on the hard courts when facing a player Ranked higher than himself in 2025, but he did take a set from Carlos Alcaraz at the Australian Open. He has tended to serve well enough to build some scoreboard pressure, but this is a match up that should very much favour Tommy Paul as long as he can retaun focus on his own serve.

Over the course of the year, Tommy Paul has been getting a bit more out of his serve compared with this opponent, but the real difference is how they have performed on the return of serve. This is a crucial factor in favour of the home player and Tommy Paul may have enough in his overall tennis to earn a win and a cover of this handicap line.

Lorenzo Musetti - 6.5 games v David Goffin: He will turn 35 years old later in the year and there has to bea huge amount of respect for the career that David Goffin has forged for himself, even if it feels like he is very much coming to the end of that.

A former top ten Ranked player, David Goffin enters the US Open as the World Number 80.

He reached four Grand Slam Quarter Finals during his career, but it cannot be ignored that the last of those was in July 2022 and the best Slam performance since then is reaching the Third Round. At his best, David Goffin's movement was a real challenge for opponents, but that also meant his best was on the other surfaces rather than the hard courts and the Belgian has yet to make it to a Quarter Final in New York City.

Very little form was shown ahead of the US Open- David Goffin played four tournaments and was beaten in the opening match each time, while losses to the likes of Sebastian Baez and Pedro Martinez on this surface will have really hurt. The numbers have been pretty poor this season as far as the hard courts go and David Goffin may find it tough to stick with Lorenzo Musetti.

The Italian is the World Number 10, although the match up with David Goffin is not one that will overwhelm the veteran.

Long rallies are to be expected, but Lorenzo Musetti's freshness is crucial and he has previously beaten David Goffin in New York City. That was back in 2022 and there is no doubt that Musetti has improved, while Goffin has declined, since they last played one another here.

Last year, David Goffin did beat Lorenzo Musetti at the Shanghai Masters so he cannot be dismissed, although it is the higher Ranked player who is getting a bit more out of his serve and is the superior return player at this stage of their careers.

Lorenzo Musetti came through an awkward First Round match in impressive fashion, although he has yet to really show his best in the Grand Slams played in Australian and the United States. This may change over the course of this tournament and the expectation out of this match is that Musetti can rack up the breaks of serve which eventually will pull him past what is a big line on paper.

David Goffin has played some of his best tennis on the hard courts in 2025 when facing the best- he pushed Carlos Alcaraz very hard at the Indian Wells Masters in March- but the form this summer has been very disappointing and that may show up on the scoreboard of this Second Round match.

Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Jacob Fearnley: 2025 will have felt like the first real tear on the Tour as far as Jacob Fearnley is concerned, despite the huge leap in the World Rankings made in 2024.

However, that was a time when the British player was really fighting it through a lower level than the main Tour and this is the first year that Jacob Fearnley has been Ranked high enough to earn direct entry into the Grand Slam events. He has taken advatnage by reaching the Third Round at the Australian Open and Jacob Fearnley also won matches at the French Open.

Like many American players, Jacob Fearnley has taken the College route into the pro Tour and was playing with the TCU Horned Frogs to build up his experience. That should mean he is pretty accustomed to the North American hard courts and getting the better of a veteran in the First Round will certainly provide confidence.

The New York City crowd can get a little rowdy, especially late into the evening, and so Jacob Fearnley has done really well to get the better of Roberto Bautista Agut.

He had not shown a lot of form in the lead up to the US Open though and Fearnley will be wella ware of the kind of challenges he will face in this Second Round match.

It was Alexander Zverev who beat Jacob Fearnley at the Australian Open in January and the World Number 3 was also a convincing winner over this opponent at the Miami Masters.

Semi Final runs at both Masters events in Canada and Cincinnati in preparation for the US Open shows that Alexander Zverev's game is in good shape and he is a former Finalist at the US Open. In fact this remains the Major he came closest to winning in his career and the German is very comfortable in the conditions at Flushing Meadows, which makes him a strong favourite in this match.

The overall hard court numbers have been impressive as far as Alexander Zverev is concerned and he can only take further confidence from the way he has dealt with Jacob Fearnley in the two hard court meetings in 2025. There has been a big difference in the quality of serving taken onto the court and Alexander Zverev should be able to maintain the momentum behind the returning numbers in the head to head.

Jacob Fearnley will want to show how much he has learned from the two losses to this opponent, but he will need to find a significant improvement in level. That seems unlikely and the World Number 3 can earn the breaks of serve to move into a position to put a dominant win on the scoreboard.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 sets v Daniel Altmaier: The fourth set was harder than it needed to be when Stefanos Tsitsipas missed six opportunities to move a double-break clear, and then dropped serve immediately. It meant having to come through a tie-breaker, but that may actually benefit a player who has been short of confidence and just act as a reminder of the talent he does possess.

The World Ranking has been trending south, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has a chance to turn things around having been beaten in the First Round at the US Open last year.

There are still some doubts about Stefanos Tsitsipas and where his confidence is right now, but he should have all of the qualities needed to beat Daniel Altmaier in this Second Round match.

The World Number 56 had been showing little form in the lead up to the US Open and had won two and lost five of the matches played across five different tournaments. With that in mind, not many would have picked Daniel Altmaier to even make it through to the Second Round and so credit has to be given to him for winning in five sets having dug deep for almost five hours on the court.

One day of rest should be enough for Daniel Altmaier to recover, but there is no doubt that he is going to have left something out on the court in the First Round.

He serves well enough to at least give a limited returner like Stefanos Tsitsipas something to think about, but, just like the First Round opponent faced by the Greek player, you do have to wonder if Daniel Altmaier's return game is good enough. In 2025 on this surface, Altmaier is winning just 35% of return points played, and he may struggled to get much joy out of the serve he is facing on Day 5 at the US Open.

That was the case in their sole previous meeting at the French Open in 2024 and the faster surfaces at the US Open are not expected to make things any easier for the lower Ranked player.

Like in the First Round, the expectation is that Stefanos Tsitsipas' serve is the difference maker between the players and a potentially fatigued opponent may struggle to win more than a set.

Karen Khachanov - 5.5 games v Kamil Majchrzak: This is a selection where the hope was that a market would be released to back Karen Khachanov to win by either three or four sets.

Instead the layers seem to be on top of the dominance that Karen Khachanov has enjoyed against this opponent and he should have enough tools to win this one convincingly too.

Karen Khachanov has beaten Kamil Majchrzak at both the French Open and Wimbledon in the past with the latter win coming in the tournament last month.

The service numbers in the four meetings on the Tour are heavily skewed in favour of the World Number 9, while the performances in the lead up to the US Open have also impressed. There is no doubt that Karen Khachanov is playing with a lot of confidence right now and that will make it very tough on Kamil Majchrzak to turn things around in the head to head.

Kamil Majchrzak has had some successes on the hard courts this year, but those have largely been at Challenger level and this is only the third match against a top 100 Ranked opponent on the surface in 2025. He is 1-1 in those previous matches with both being played in Winston Salem last week, but this is a big step up and Majchrzak has not enjoyed the match up.

He should be able to serve well enough to be competitive in a set, but Karen Khachanov will be confident he can deal with what's coming and the top ten Ranked player can find a way to grind down this opponent and move clear of the handicap line.

MY PICKS: Tommy Paul - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Lorenzo Musetti - 6.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

US Open Update: 12-4, + 11.84 Units (31 Units Staked, + 38.19% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2024 (Wednesday 28th August)

There have been a few US Opens where the rain has played a part early in the event, but the hot conditions are making it tough for the players in a different way this year.

At least the tournament is running on schedule and Day 3 at the US Open means the start of the Second Round matches.

Juncheng Shang - 1.5 sets v Roberto Carballas Baena: Both of these players came through five sets in the First Round at the US Open, but there were one or two concerns about the Roberto Carballas Baena fitness at the end of his win over Jan Choinski.

For Juncheng Shang, the key will be to recover mentally from a big effort to beat Alexander Bublik in an upset, but the nineteen year old is playing on a career best World Ranking mark and looks capable of pushing further up the Rankings. Injury has perhaps held him back from already making an impact on the Tour, but Shang is confident on the hard courts and the win over Bublik will have opened up his little section in the draw.

Backing up big wins is always the challenge for younger, inexperienced players, and that is the challenge set for Juncheng Shang. He did beat Roberto Carballas Baena on a clay court earlier this season, which is the favoured courts of the Spaniard, and there is little doubt that Carballas Baena is not quite as sold when it comes to this surface.

Roberto Carballas Baena has not been able to avoid a losing record on the hard courts since 2018 and he will do well to do that this season too.

Two hard court preparation matches ended in straight sets defeats in Washington and in Canada and Roberto Carballas Baena looked to be floundering after blowing a 2-0 lead in sets in the First Round. That was also a match against the World Number 276 and Carballas Baena has a 4-7 record against top 100 Ranked players on the hard courts this season.

He is capable and the veteran will know a few tricks to try and get Juncheng Shang off his game, but Roberto Carballas Baena may need to get through the games quickly to preserve energy. Ultimately that is not the style he will employ as a clay courter and that should give the younger player the edge as he looks to frank the win on the clay courts against this opponent.

Roberto Carballas Baena took the opening set, but Juncheng Shang created more than three times as many Break Points and he should have an edge in this Second Round match on the hard courts. The feeling is that the young player will be able to back up the victory over a Seeded opponent and get past Roberto Carballas Baena in three or four sets.

Taylor Fritz - 1.5 sets v Matteo Berrettini: The hard court season should be a time when Taylor Fritz finds himself inspired, but it has been a tough month for the American. There will be no excuses at the US Open and Fritz was a comfortable First Round winner, but the form on this surface since the Indian Wells Masters has been extremely disappointing.

In saying that, Taylor Fritz may point out that he has been given a couple of tough early draws with Sebastian Korda and Brandon Nakashima getting the better of him in the two Masters events played in preparation for the US Open. Both are very comfortable on the hard courts and Nakashima has already produced an upset at this Grand Slam when seeing off Holger Rune in the First Round.

Taylor Fritz may have hoped that he would be able to ease his way into the tournament, but he has been unfortunate in being placed in the same mini-section as Matteo Berrettini, one of the dangerous floaters who is Unseeded in the tournament.

In January 2022, Matteo Berrettini was the World Number 6 and he looked to be the leading Italian hope on the ATP Tour having reached the Semi Final at the US Open in 2019 and the Wimbledon Final in 2021. Another Semi Final run at the Australian Open in 2022 and two Quarter Final runs at the US Open in 2021 and 2022 are other highlights of his career, but Berrettini's star has been stolen by Jannik Sinner as injuries have restricted his time on the Tour over the last couple of years.

He actually missed the first two Slams in 2024 and a Second Round exit at Wimbledon is disappointing, while Matteo Berrettini lost early in Cincinnati in his sole hard court match played before his First Round win at the US Open. Beating Albert Ramos is one thing and this is a big step up for the Italian who is now playing as the World Number 44 and who will be hoping that he can steer clear of injuries in the weeks, months and years ahead.

You know both players are going to be looking to back up monster serving and see if they can put pressure on the other, especially as the return games have been suspect to say the least. Since Indian Wells, Taylor Fritz has broken in just shy of 9% of return games played on the hard courts in four matches, but looked better in the First Round against a weaker opponent, while Matteo Berrettini has broken in 14% of return games played on this surface over the same time period.

Taylor Fritz may get a bit more backing from the crowd being at home, but Matteo Berrettini is very popular and that should make this an entertaining match.

The American, who is a top 12 Seed in the tournament, has had the better of Matteo Berrettini in their previous three meetings and that should play a part in the match. All of those have been on the hard courts and at a time when Berrettini was a top 20 Ranked player and who had been the higher Ranked player twice, but it is Taylor Fritz who has found a winning performance each time.

The service numbers have been key- Taylor Fritz has won 69% of service points played in those three wins and he has held 92% of games, while Matteo Berrettini has won 62% of the points played behind his own serve and that has led to holds in 83% of games played.

Taylor Fritz may not have been in the best of forms heading into the tournament, but this is a match up that should not worry him too much. He will feel if he can serve as well as he can, he should keep the pressure on Matteo Berrettini and ultimately that should help the American through to the next Round in three or four sets.

Alexander Zverev - 7.5 games v Alexandre Muller: Dropping a set is not a massive concern for a player in the early Rounds of a Grand Slam event, but you don't want to make a habit of that. Every extra minute spent on the court at this moment will add up over the course of the fortnight taking part in a Slam and it is important for contenders to have to exert too much extra energy in the early Rounds.

This has perhaps been an issue for Alexander Zverev in the past and there will have been some frustration at dropping the second set in his First Round win. However, he rolled through the remainder of the match in a comfortable four set win and the overall form this year suggests the World Number 4 can have a big impact in New York City, where he is a former Finalist.

The draw has been kind enough for Alexander Zverev and he is a big favourite when facing Alexandre Muller in the Second Round.

The Frenchman is the World Number 77, which means he is very close to surpassing his career best Ranking which was set earlier in the year. The best performances have been on the clay courts, but Alexandre Muller has shown plenty of quality on the hard courts, albeit against the opponents he would expect to beat.

Even the First Round win here was against an opponent who is considerably higher in the World Rankings and so Muller did what was expected in his four set win. Prior to that, Muller had lost five in a row on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents and his service numbers have been disappointing in those numbers.

He may be aided by the faster conditions most players have spoken about at the US Open, especially with the hot conditions helping. However, Alexandre Muller could find himself under pressure from Alexander Zverev and the big serve of the World Number 4 may put him in a strong position to cover this line.

It is a big mark, so it will be challenging, but Alexander Zverev may have the majority of Break Points as he did in the First Round. Some of the defeats suffered by Alexandre Muller against the better players on the Tour and especially on the hard courts suggest this one could get away from him and backing Zverev for a second time in the tournament is the play.

Grigor Dimitrov - 7.5 games v Rinky Hijikata: He reached the Final at the Miami Masters earlier in the year, but early defeats in Canada and Cincinnati may have knocked some of the confidence that Grigor Dimitrov has ahead of his latest attempt to finally win a Grand Slam title.

The Bulgarian is still a member of the top ten of the World Rankings and he was a comfortable First Round winner, albeit as a significant favourite. The defeat to Alexei Popyrin in Canada is not as bad as it may have felt considering the Australian moved through the draw to win a maiden Masters title, but the Grigor Dimitrov defeat in Cincinnati is much more concerning.

Overall it has been a very solid year on the hard courts for Dimitrov, but the Third Round loss in Melbourne would have hurt and he will be expecting much better in New York City.

The match up in this Second Round at the US Open looks a decent one for Dimitrov and that is taking nothing away from Rinky Hijikata.

A four set win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the First Round will have been a boost for Rinky Hijikata, but the World Number 62 has struggled in matches where he is perhaps expecting to lose. His 1-5 record against top 50 Ranked opponents in hard court matches in 2024 backs that up and Hijikata has really struggled with his return game in those six matches.

Two of those defeats have been against Grigor Dimitrov and it is hard to ignore the fact that Rinky Hijikata has not been nearly as competitive as he would have wanted to be in those two defeats. One was before the Australian Open, but the second was earlier this month and it is going to be a huge test for Hijikata to turn things around considering he has been broken in 57% of service games played.

This will put a considerable amount of pressure on his return game, which, as already mentioned, is an area that Hijikata has struggled with when it comes to the stronger players on the Tour. It is clear that Grigor Dimitrov remains one of those and the Australian has not broken the Dimitrov serve, despite facing him twice this season.

The spread is a big one and the margin is tight- if Dimitrov starts slowly, who throws in a couple of poor service games, it will be tough to cover. However, he should be able to create a lot of Break Points and that should mean Grigor Dimitrov is in a position to win a set by a wide enough margin to be in a position to move through to the Third Round with some relative comfort.

MY PICKS: Juncheng Shang - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Taylor Fritz - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Grigor Dimitrov - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Barbora Krejcikova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 4-4, - 1 Unit (16 Units Staked, - 6.25% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2023 (August 28th)

The final Grand Slam of the season will begin on Monday 28th August and the US Open looks like it could be a special tournament.

After the Wimbledon Final and the rematch in the Masters Final in Cincinnati, fans will be salivating over the prospect of seeing Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz meet in a little under two weeks time for another Grand Slam title.

Unsurprisingly the two top men's players in the world are short odds to win the US Open compared with the rest of the field- while both Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz are priced at single digits, you can get double digit odds for any other player in the field.

The odds suggest it will be a straight fight between the two players that have won the last five Grand Slam titles, but there are players in the field that will be looking to quietly go about their business. Daniil Medvedev won the US Open in 2021 and is clearly at his best on the hard courts, while players like Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz will be looking for deep runs.

We have seen some surprising runs at the US Open in the past with players like Juan Martin Del Potro, Marin Cilic and Dominic Thiem previous winners here since 2009. However, it does feel like a tournament that is either going to be won by Djokovic or Alcaraz and may just depend on which of those two players can hold themselves together at tough moments over the next two weeks.

Out of the two, the defending Champion Carlos Alcaraz certainly looks to have a tougher path through to the Final, but it will be a case of fingers crossed that we get to see the Final that most would be asking for.

Both Alcaraz and Djokovic are priced up shorter than the women's favourite at the US Open and that just underlines the competitiveness at the top of the WTA draw at Flushing Meadows.

Iga Swiatek is the defending Champion, the Number 1 Seed and the favourite, but it does feel like a number of other names will be confident of taking that title home.

Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina are obvious contenders, while the American audiences, and the home organisers, will be looking forward in seeing how far Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff can progress over this fortnight.

The good news for WTA fans is that the draw is loaded with some talent and it should mean an exciting final Slam of the season all around and that is what the sport needs. And that will especially be the case if one of those top names wins the title and continue strengthening the top of the women's game.

Taylor Fritz - 6.5 games v Steve Johnson: Most American tennis fans would consider the women's Singles event being played at the US Open as being the one that is more likely to produce a first home Champion since Sloane Stephens won the title in New York City in 2017.

There are a couple of top ten Seeds representng the United States in the men's draw too, but it is hard to look past the two names who have won the last five Grand Slam titles played.

Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe will both get their US Open challenges underway on Monday as Day 1 of the tournament begins, but it is only the latter of those two names who has had a really good run here before. That came last year when Frances Tiafoe reached the Semi Final at the US Open, but it has been much harder work for Taylor Fritz.

He may be the World Number 9 and he may have reached as high as World Number 5, but Taylor Fritz has yet to have the kind of consistent impact at Grand Slam level that his World Ranking would suggest. A Quarter Final run at Wimbledon in 2022 is the best it has been for Taylor Fritz, but it is almost hard to believe that he has only reached the second week of one other Grand Slam whwn making the Australian Open Fourth Round in 2021.

Simply put it is not good enough.

Facing veteran Steve Johnson in this First Round match gives Taylor Fritz a chance to get his teeth into the tournament, but there will be some mental demons to exorcise considering the poor record he holds at his home Grand Slam. In three of the last four years, Fritz has failed to even make it through to the Third Round, but his preparation during this US hard court swing has been decent enough.

It also helps that he is facing Steve Johnson who has slipped well outside the top 100 in the World Rankings and who has begun to play the majority of his tennis at Challenger level to rebuild some confidence. That has worked to some extent with some solid runs in hard court events, but over the last twelve months, Steve Johnson has a 0-7 record when facing top 100 Ranked players on the surface.

The serve can give Steve Johnson a chance, but he has really been struggling on the return in those matches and that has perhaps contributed to declining numbers behind his best shot.

It will also help Taylor Fritz in being familiar with this opponent having won the last three matches between them, while also winning three of four previous hard court matches.

My concern in backing Taylor Fritz when it comes to spreads of this margin is that he does not have a very strong return game and giving up serve a couple of times makes it difficult for him to recover. However, the Steve Johnson game is not as strong as when these two last met in 2021 and Taylor Fritz has continued to develop, albeit we have yet to see the outcome of the work being put in when it comes to Grand Slam results.

One tie-breaker is almost to be expected, but Fritz can just wear down the veteran over the course of a couple of hours on the court and that should see him cover this line narrowly.

Alexander Bublik - 2.5 games v Dominic Thiem: Three years ago Dominic Thiem realised a dream when picking up his Grand Slam title at the US Open having fought back from two sets down to edge out Alexander Zverev in an epic Final.

The hope for the Austrian is that it isn't going to be the top of the mountain as far as his career goes as injuries have restricted Dominic Thiem over the last couple of years. It is a big reason the former Champion is now down at World Number 82 and preparation for the tournament has been far from ideal considering this is the first hard court match Thiem will be playing since March at the Miami Masters.

One or two signs have been seen that Dominic Thiem might be finding a way to get back towards his best, but those have largely been on the clay courts and this is a different test. Some have suggested the courts at the US Open are not playing as fast as previously, but Dominic Thiem has lost his last seven hard court matches, including all six played in 2023.

He is up against one of the Seeded players, but it might be argued that Alexander Bublik is one of the weaker of those Seeds in the draw. This is clearly a talented player, but Bublik has not found a lot of consistency on the hard courts and his approach to his tennis is perhaps a touch too care-free.

Losses to Gael Monfils and Hubert Hurkacz has meant Alexander Bublik has not won a match on the hard courts in the lead up to the US Open, while he was eliminated in the First Round at the Australian Open, Putting that together and you can perhaps understand why Bublik is not a dominant favourite in this match, although it does feel like one in which he should find a way to earn the victory.

Serving well will be the key, especially as Dominic Thiem is still finding his feet back on the hard courts. This year, Thiem has only held 66% of his hard court service games and he was comfortably beaten by Andrey Rublev at the Australian Open in their First Round meeting in Melbourne back in January.

Neither of these players will be pointing to strong return numbers on the hard courts in 2023, but Alexander Bublik does look like he may have an edge when it comes to the serving numbers. That could make all the difference in their second professional match against one another and the feeling is that having a few more hard court matches under his belt over the last month can help Alexander Bublik to a good looking win against the former Champion.

Casper Ruud - 6.5 games v Emilio Nava: Make no mistake, the general hard court performances of Casper Ruud have been noted this year and it is very difficult to make a case for the World Number 5 to have anything like the run he enjoyed at the US Open last year.

However, he has reached three Grand Slam Finals since June 2022 and it is clear that Casper Ruud is finding a way to peak and bring his best form when the big tournaments roll around.

The time between Wimbledon and the US Open has not been nearly as effectively used by Casper Ruud as we have seen in the past and the relatively early losses in Masters events in Canada and Cincinnati will have not done much for the confidence of the player. The summer clay court events helped, but Casper Ruud is just 6-8 on the hard courts in 2023 and there may be a few calling for a First Round upset.

Despite the form, it is still tough to believe that Ruud does not have the quality of tennis to beat young American Emilio Nava, even if the latter has put three wins on the board at the US Open in coming through the Qualifiers. Emilio Nava will head into the main draw with a new career best World Ranking number next to his name, while an upset will see him open this section of the draw and potentially help Nava produce a surprising run.

However, the majority of Emilio Nava's time is still spent away from the main ATP Tour and this is a considerable step up in level of competition that he is used to facing. He does not possess an overwhelming serve and Emilio Nava has broken in just 17% of return games played on the surface before the US Open Qualifiers begun.

It is also very difficult to ignore the fact that Emilio Nava is just 2-11 in hard court matches played against top 100 Ranked opponents in his career. Respect is given for the fact that Nava has taken sets from quality players like Lorenzo Musetti and Andy Murray at the US Open, but he ended up well beaten in both of those matches and Casper Ruud is capable of going through the gears when he does get on top of opponents.

Emilio Nava has really struggled to deal with the return of serve against the top 100 opponents played on the hard courts and while he has shown some signs of improving his own service numbers, it may still not be enough to make up for the returning side of his tennis.

Casper Ruud can be a little erratic early in Grand Slam tournaments, but he has won his last five First Round matches at the Australian and US Open tournaments combined. In the four completed wins in that run (one was a retirement with Ruud fully in control), the Norwegian would have covered this handicap mark twice and missed another by a single game.

The home player will likely keep the first couple of sets competitive, but eventually Casper Ruud's qualities should shine through as the 2022 Runner Up gets his tournament underway.

Sebastian Korda - 1.5 sets v Marton Fucsovics: An ankle injury picked up just a few days ago is far from ideal for Sebastian Korda as he prepares to play at the US Open as one of the Seeded players.

He withdrew from the tournament in Winston Salem with the complaint and would have preferred to have been in the top half of the draw in New York City if only to have earned an extra day of rest and recovery.

Sebastian Korda has long been considered a player with a huge amount of potential, but at 23 years old we have yet to see him produce the consistency needed. This is a tough First Round match too if he is feeling the ankle, but you have to believe that he withdrew from Winston Salem as a precaution and he should be ready to compete.

He will need to be ready having seen how tough Marton Fucsovics can be in a match played against each other last week- Sebastian Korda prevailed, but it was a tight match with very little in the margins and so the American is going to need to be close to full fitness in order to get the better of Fucsovics again.

That won't be easy against a solid enough hard court player and Marton Fucsovics has been known to produce an upset or two at Grand Slam level. There is little doubt he will be playing with confidence, but Sebastian Korda has a bit more pop out of the first serve and ultimately that could make the difference in this First Round contest.

You would worry about Korda's chances of progressing if he needs to enter a fifth set, but he is capable of edging the margins to a three or four set victory.

Coco Gauff - 5.5 games v Laura Siegemund: Unsurprisingly the Day 1 Night Session will feature one of the top names in American tennis and a genuine contender to win the US Open title.

Coco Gauff has long been considered someone who will win multiple Grand Slam titles having burst onto the scene as a teenager, but winning the big Masters event in Cincinnati has only increased the level of expectation around her. That is the biggest title that Coco Gauff has won and moved her into World Number 6 and there will be some pressure walking out onto Arthur Ashe to begin this final Grand Slam of 2023.

However, Coco Gauff has long understood the pressures and she has shown a decent temperament in being able to handle that.

She will be tested by Laura Siegemund, even though the veteran is now outside the top 100 in the World Rankings and seven years since reaching her peak career high World Ranking. Winning three Qualifiers will give Laura Siegemund confidence, while she will understand that there is nothing to lose when playing in front of an expectant home crowd.

Trying to battle and make Coco Gauff work for everything will be the plan, but the American has won all thirteen matches against players outside of the top 50 on the hard courts in 2023. That improves to winning all eighteen matches in that situation over the last twelve months and Coco Gauff is a much better player than when she lost the sole previous match between these two players.

Her numbers in the eighteen match wins over players outside of the top 50 makes strong reading and the feeling is that Coco Gauff can come out and make an early statement to the rest of the field.

MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz - 6.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alexander Bublik - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Sebastian Korda - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekend Football and Fantasy Football GameWeek 3 Picks 2021 (August 28-29)

I am going to be having a really busy week in the lead up to the final Premier League weekend to be played in August 2021, but I have managed to put a thread together which can go live on Friday.

Ultimately I am someone that usually loves to wait to make his transfers so I can have the full information of the week behind me, but that has not been the case this week.

After the international break things should settle down considerably.

Manchester City v Arsenal Pick: There were some surprisingly strong teams selected by Premier League clubs playing in the League Cup Second Round, but some of those were understandable as managers looked for a bounce to take into the final Premier League fixtures of August.

After a very difficult start and with the pressure mounting, Mikel Arteta picked a very strong Arsenal team for the Cup tie at West Brom. The home team had a complete overhaul of their usual eleven and Arsenal took advantage as they hammered West Brom 0-6 to give the squad a boost.

Goalless and pointless after two Premier League games, Mikel Arteta needed a big result if only to ease the pressure ahead of this fixture. It is probably the one game that Arsenal would not have wanted to play after their poor start in the League and there are still some key players missing which only increases the difficulty in trying to earn a result at the Etihad Stadium.

Manchester City snapped a rare 3 game losing run in their win over Norwich City and it was a surprise to see the Champions fail to score in any of those defeats. Missing out on Harry Kane is a blow, but Pep Guardiola will feel his team is capable of finding a person to lead the line from within the squad and Manchester City showed they can cope in that situation for much of last season.

I do think it makes Manchester City potentially vulnerable in their defence of the title, but this is a team that can create plenty of chances in their current mould. I expect that to be the case against Arsenal who allowed Chelsea to dominate proceedings in their final third, although at least they won't be facing a striker like Romelu Lukaku to bully the defence this weekend.

Even then, Manchester City should be comfortable going up against the system that Mikel Arteta is trying to implement at Arsenal. This is a squad of players that know their roles and Manchester City have been very strong at home under Pep Guardiola.

Both Premier League games between the teams were tight last season, but Manchester City had won the previous 3 home games against Arsenal pretty comfortably. I think that could be the case this weekend too and I expect Manchester City to win by a couple of goals in the early kick off on Saturday.

Aston Villa v Brentford Pick: Thomas Frank is likely to be much happier than Dean Smith with the opening points on the board, but the latter will have seen his Aston Villa team rally from the opening defeat to Watford.

That will be pleasing for Dean Smith and the squad can now begin to move on past Jack Grealish and his move to Manchester City. A comfortable win over Barrow in the League Cup Second Round was almost expected, but it is Aston Villa's win over Newcastle United at Villa Park in the Premier League which will have shown the players they can cope with their top player from last season and even build on their successes of the last campaign.

Aston Villa are back in front of their own fans this weekend, but they will want to show a little more creativity in their play. Penalties have been scored in each of the first two Premier League games, but Dean Smith will want to see more chances being created overall.

It is going to be a real test to do that against a Brentford team who have kept clean sheets against Arsenal and Crystal Palace in their first season in the Premier League. Thomas Frank has organised his team very well and they have limited the amount of chances being allowed, but Brentford are still finding their feet as a consistent attacking threat and it will perhaps leave them a little vulnerable away from home.

The Bees will look to press their opponent and they have played well enough in the Premier League in the first couple of games to think they can perform at this level. They also have a little more consistency in the squad which means players are much more comfortable with the roles they are being asked to do and that could make things difficult for their hosts.

However, I do think Danny Ings is a huge signing for Aston Villa and he is a difference maker in the final third. His finishing is proven at this level compared with Ivan Toney for Brentford and I think Danny Ings can make the difference on the day with a slight lean for Aston Villa to earn another home League victory.

It will be far from easy and Brentford are not going to lie down for any opponent they face, but Aston Villa have plenty going for them and I think being at home will prove to be the key towards the three points.

Brighton v Everton Pick: There is plenty to be excited about for both Brighton and Everton fans after the early performances in the 2021/22 season and both teams will be confident they can earn a positive result to take into the upcoming two week break.

Last season Brighton seemingly lacked confidence in the final third which prevented them from operating much higher up the League standings. Graham Potter is confident in his philosophy and the Brighton players have responded with two good wins to open this season, although they were perhaps a little fortunate to beat Burnley on the opening weekend.

This is a team that plays some very good football and Brighton do create chances, but they will know Rafael Benitez is likely going to have Everton pretty well organised.

We have yet to really see that from the Spanish manager when you note that Everton have failed to produce a clean sheet, but The Toffees have restricted Southampton and Leeds United to few really good chances. That has to be encouraging for the manager, especially as Everton have looked pretty dangerous going forward.

Creating chances at the Amex Stadium won't be easy for Everton though and this has all of the makings of a really competitive fixture with little between the teams. The injuries in the Brighton defensive areas has to be something Everton look to exploit though and Rafael Benitez' team have scored at least twice in all 3 games played this season.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin looks like he will really enjoy playing for Everton and the system has been one that is getting a bit more out of some of the players at the disposal of the club. Rafael Benitez might not have been the choice of many of the fans of the club, but I think his Everton team have been a little better than Brighton in the first couple of fixtures and they can at least match the point earned from the trip down south last season.

If Brighton are missing Neal Maupay and Danny Welbeck you do have to wonder if they have enough of an attacking threat to break down Everton here. Set pieces are always dangerous for Brighton, but Everton are not a small team and I think the visitors can be backed with a start on the Asian Handicap to earn any kind of positive result here.

Newcastle United v Southampton Pick: Both Steve Bruce and Ralph Hasenhuttl may feel there is a difficult season in front of their Newcastle United and Southampton teams and so games like this one are going to be vitally important for them if they are going to avoid the drop.

Nothing we have seen from the first month of the new season suggests that the pre-season expectations for both clubs are too wide of the mark.

Southampton at least earned a big League Cup win during the week to build some confidence, but they have lost key players this summer and there is a pressure on the team. Their away form has been tremendously poor in the Premier League in 2021 and Southampton are a team that have given up some huge chances in their first couple of Premier League games.

Despite the defeats, Newcastle United have been creating chances and it is only their own defensive vulnerabilities that have held them back. Better finishing would have seen them beat Burnley in the League Cup, while Newcastle United didn't play that terribly in the defeat to Aston Villa last weekend.

I do think that offers some encouragement, while Newcastle United have also got the better of Southampton at home in recent seasons.

Both teams will create chances considering the defensive performances we have seen from Newcastle United and Southampton. The Southampton away record going back to last season doesn't offer a lot of encouragement and they were beaten at Everton a couple of weeks ago.

The first goal is going to be absolutely massive in this fixture, but I do think Newcastle United have performed better than their early results will suggest. On the other hand Southampton are a little fortunate to even have a point on the board and I think Newcastle United will find a way to win this one.

However, it would be smarter to keep this to the Asian Handicap which will mean returning any stake in the event of a draw.

Norwich City v Leicester City Pick: These two teams conceded nine times in the Premier League last weekend and both Norwich City and Leicester City will be looking to bounce back when they face one another on Saturday afternoon at Carrow Road.

It has been a tough return to the Premier League for Norwich City who played well in their 0-3 home defeat to Liverpool, but looked shell-shocked in the 5-0 defeat to Manchester City last weekend. That does mean they have gotten two difficult fixtures off the list, but Daniel Farke is going to have to work hard to make the players believe that they are able to perform at this level having struggled to 21 points in the Premier League two seasons ago.

A thumping win over Bournemouth in the League Cup Second Round will be a confidence booster for Norwich City, but the manager will need his side to be a little more ruthless when the chances come up. They missed some big ones against Liverpool on the opening weekend, but one of the bigger concerns for Norwich City has to be the amount of big chances they have given up.

The question is whether Leicester City can expose the backline in the same manner as the two previous Champions have been able to do and their early form is not so encouraging. Brendan Rodgers has seen his team pick up 3 points, but they were fortunate to beat Wolves at home and on Monday Leicester City looked well off the pace as they were overwhelmed and eventually worn down by West Ham United.

Losing a player in the first half did not help, but Leicester City were already looking like they were struggling with the intensity of the home team. Now they have to face a Norwich City team who are going to be intense, especially early, and a home crowd that will be pumped after the big Cup win during the week.

Even then you do have to think Leicester City have enough quality in the final third to cause problems for The Canaries and I can see both teams having enough about them to get on the scoreboard. A draw would not be the worst result for Norwich City, but Daniel Farke only has his team play one way and that should mean this is an attacking game.

Two seasons ago there were two low scoring Premier League games between these clubs, but I think this will buck that trend considering the early performances of both Norwich City and Leicester City. Neither team has looked very sure defensively and that may be music to the ears of the attacking players and I think the teams could share out three goals on the day.

West Ham United v Crystal Palace Pick: He was ridiculed for his time managing Manchester United and I do believe David Moyes will privately admit he got plenty wrong in his short time overseeing things at Old Trafford. However, 'The Chosen One' has rebuilt his reputation in the seven years since being sacked as manager of Manchester United and his time with West Ham United has been particularly special.

David Moyes was once reigniting Everton as a big Premier League club and he is more than doing the same for West Ham United have taken them to their highest League finish in twenty-one years last season. Building on that was always going to be a challenge, but West Ham United look plenty confident and scoring eight goals in 2 Premier League wins against Newcastle United and Leicester City only strengthens the belief within the playing squad.

Reinforcements may still be needed when West Ham United have to cope with the Thursday-Sunday Europa League-Premier League schedule, but for now this is a team flying and playing with swagger.

Said Benrahma looks to have learnt plenty from his first season in the Premier League, while the added physicality being allowed by the referees only makes Michail Antonio a bigger threat than he already was. Both players have been in stunning form to open this season and they are taking on a Crystal Palace team who have to be a little concerned with the start made under Patrick Vieira.

A point has been earned by Crystal Palace, but that came in a winnable home game against Brentford and Vieira still has to win over some of his critics. The defeat to Watford in the League Cup may not have hurt so much if the manager had made vast changes, but it was a strong Crystal Palace team that struggled to create chances and they have had issues in the final third.

Defensively Crystal Palace are still relatively organised, but they are going to have to perform at a high level to contain this rampant West Ham United team. The Hammers have been creating plenty of chances and have players from all around the front six that will feel they can finish when those come their way.

Last season Crystal Palace did earn a draw here, but this looks a tough ground to visit right now and West Ham United are motoring. The goals being scored by David Moyes' team are hard to ignore, but they haven't been fortunate to do that and have been creating plenty to suggest it can continue.

I expect Crystal Palace to try and work their hosts over on the counter attack, but this is a team that has struggled with the new identity that Patrick Vieira wants to instil in them. It is a work in progress and I think West Ham United will take advantage by securing a comfortable win on the day to make it three wins from three going into the first international break.

Liverpool v Chelsea Pick: There is no doubt which is the biggest game in the Premier League this weekend as two of the sides with a 100% record meet at Anfield.

The fact it is also a match between the 2020 Premier League Champions and the 2021 European Champions and both Liverpool and Chelsea will feel they have the capabilities of being crowned Champions next May. These are two clubs that will be chasing the big prizes and an early chance for Jurgen Klopp and Thomas Tuchel to lay down a marker for the kind of standards they expect from their teams over the next ten months.

Liverpool and Chelsea have really only done what was expected of them by beating Norwich City/Burnley and Crystal Palace/Arsenal respectively, but ultimately they have to be given credit for the six points they have produced. Other leading clubs have already dropped points so Liverpool and Chelsea will be feeling good about where they are going into the third round of fixtures in the Premier League, but both will also feel they have something to prove.

This is by far the biggest test either team will have played this season and I do think it is going to be an incredibly competitive fixture.

Liverpool look stronger with their defensive injuries cleared up and they should have their first choice back four together for the first time. Andrew Robertson has missed the first two games, but he was on the bench last week and another week of training should mean the Scottish international bolsters the Liverpool defence who have kept back to back clean sheets.

Now they will be looking to shut out Romelu Lukaku who scored on his second debut for Chelsea and Thomas Tuchel's men have really played very well through their first two games. This is just further proof of the improvement of the entire squad since Tuchel replaced Frank Lampard last January and Chelsea have won 7 of their 10 away Premier League games under the former Paris Saint-Germain manager.

Chelsea have won at Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal in the 10 Premier League away wins played with Thomas Tuchel at the helm, while they have also won at West Ham United in that time.

The Blues will feel they have the balance between attack and defence to pose considerable problems for Liverpool, although they will also acknowledge that the home team have fresh strikers that all look to be on top form in the first month of the 2021/22 season.

It makes this a tough fixture to call, but I do think the tactical acumen of Thomas Tuchel has been seen in the majority of Chelsea's big matches since January. The defeat in the FA Cup Final aside, Chelsea have had some huge wins over the top teams in the Premier League and they have a squad that has the winning mentality to make things very difficult for the narrow favourites Liverpool.

Not many teams can stand the pressure of Liverpool with a full Anfield behind them, especially this Liverpool under Jurgen Klopp. However, I do think Chelsea have the personnel and experience to at least weather the early storm and in the opening two fixtures it is the Chelsea defence which has looked stronger than the Liverpool one.

A single goal may be enough to win this fixture, but I think Chelsea are good enough to avoid defeat. Even if they fall behind, this is a deep squad that can make changes to shift the momentum of the match and I think Chelsea have been a little more impressive than Liverpool even though both teams will feel they have tougher tests to come than the first two League opponents faced.

The superior defence may make the difference on the day and I do think Chelsea have that with the approach of the manager. In a tough fixture, I think the visitors can do enough to contain Liverpool and give themselves every chance of picking up a positive result before the first international break of the season.

Burnley v Leeds United Pick: The first live Premier League game on Sunday comes from Turf Moor and both Burnley and Leeds United will be very keen to secure their first three points of the season.

The early performances have been somewhat encouraging despite the results and I think that could lead to a decent fixture. Defensively there are some questions to answer for both Burnley and Leeds United and that should mean the attacking players are able to have plenty of success in the fixture.

Burnley have perhaps been the team that has created the superior chances early in this season, but Leeds United have managed to score the goals. The quality in the away team cannot be dismissed and they are going to be capable of working chances against the Burnley defence which has struggled with their balance at times.

However, I also believe Burnley are going to cause problems with a physical approach that can cause issues for defenders who have become used to a sport that has taken some of the contact away in recent seasons. Having two up two is a system that teams rarely face these days too and that will give Burnley encouragement having fashioned good scoring opportunities against both Brighton and Liverpool.

The game at Elland Road didn't feature a lot of goals last season, but in May Leeds United crushed Burnley here. The fans should motivate the home team to better, and I do think both teams are able to score here.

It should be a fixture with plenty of chances created and I think there will be at least three goals shared out between them.

Tottenham Hotspur v Watford Pick: Two wins from two in the Premier League has given Nuno Espirito Santo a foundation to build upon in his time as the new manager of Tottenham Hotspur, but the biggest boost for the former Wolves manager is Harry Kane's commitment to the club.

Having Harry Kane leading the line will only strengthen Tottenham Hotspur's cause and they should have enough to see off Watford. I do think they have been a little fortunate to beat both Manchester City and Wolves, but confidence has to be improving in each passing match and they are expected to have too much for this Watford team.

You have to credit Watford for an immediate return to the top flight, but this is a squad that is vastly less dangerous playing away from home than they are at Vicarage Road. We have already seen signs of that this season after Watford beat Aston Villa at home and limply dropped a 2-0 defeat at Brighton.

Watford created very little at the Amex Stadium, while defensively they looked suspect at times.

It will be highly encouraging for Tottenham Hotspur as they look to take the game to Watford and I do think having Kane leading the line will only have the fans further behind the team. That should spark another strong result from Tottenham Hotspur as they make it three wins from three.

With the goals they look to have in the squad, I think Tottenham Hotspur are going to win this match by a comfortable margin too.

Wolves v Manchester United Pick: It may only be taking place in August, but this is a huge Premier League match for both Wolves and Manchester United who are coming off disappointing League results last Sunday.

Both managers will feel their team did enough to secure wins against Tottenham Hotspur and Southampton respectively, but Wolves were disappointingly beaten and Manchester United could only earn a point. The underlying numbers have been positive for both teams, but it is what they do on the pitch that will matter to two managers that could face plenty of criticism if the right results don't keep them off the hot seat.

Bruno Lage has to be pleased with the attacking football his Wolves team are playing, although the final touch has been missing. Big chances have come and gone, but Lage has to believe that things will turn in Wolves' favour if they can keep that form going and the 0-4 win at Nottingham Forest in the League Cup Second Round will be a jolt of confidence surging through the squad.

There is pace in the forward positions and Wolves also have talisman Raul Jimenez leading the line after a serious injury forced him to miss much of last season. Even then it will take some time for Jimenez to find his feet again and the key for Wolves is seeing other players step up and take the chances when they come.

Creating against Manchester United won't be easy even if the lack of clean sheets for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's men suggests otherwise. Both Leeds United and Southampton have needed something special to find the back of the net and Manchester United will believe they did more than enough in the final third to deserve more than they got.

Better finishing will be key for Manchester United as much as Wolves, but I think they can produce that at Molineux on Sunday. The home team will be dangerous with their new style and they may be facing a United team without Raphael Varane again which can only encourage Wolves to try and get forward.

3 of the last 5 between these clubs at Molineux have ended with at least three goals shared out since Wolves returned to the top flight in the 2018/19 season. An early goal would certainly spark the entire fixture in this one too as it did on the final day of last season and the new manager's approach for Wolves should make them more enjoyable to watch than they were at times under Nuno Espirito Santo.

Both teams will feel they can trouble the opposition goalkeeper, but both Wolves and Manchester United have been creating enough chances to believe they can come together and produce at least three goals on the day.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap

Aston Villa - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Everton + 0.25 Asian Handicap

Newcastle United 0 Asian Handicap

Norwich City-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals

West Ham United & Over 1.5 Goals

Chelsea + 0.25 Asian Handicap

Burnley-Leeds United Over 2.5 Goals

Tottenham Hotspur - 1 Asian Handicap

Wolves-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals

Fantasy Football GameWeek 3

I did not have a thread up last week (it's wedding season which limits time massively), but it was one in which I posted my team which had no changes from the opening weekend.

I was hoping to hold onto a transfer to carry across the international break, but after two weeks I do feel changes had to be made largely because I did not want to be on the wrong end of any significant price drops.

The likes of Ryan Bertrand, Harvey Barnes and Emiliano Buendia were all expected to drop this week, while I also feel there has to be some change in the mentality compared with last season in which I refused to get on board obvious bandwagons.

Both Bertrand and Barnes were the obvious players to move on and Said Benrahma the obvious replacement for the latter. I did think about bringing in a West Ham United defender too, but I don't think they have defended well enough and instead the focus was on a Tottenham Hotspur player considering the next two games they have on deck.

It also meant being able to put some money in the bank with a long-term goal of bringing in Romelu Lukaku once the Chelsea fixtures ease up. I do think I am going to have to either use my first Wild Card of the season after the October international break or I will have to give up one of the premium midfield options and right now both of those routes are very much available for me.

I don't want to look too far ahead as that can see a wide gap develop to the top players in the FPL, but it is something to keep in mind. For now the focus is making sure I can keep the positive start to the season going through another GameWeek and with another week of numbers to crunch before the next GW begins.

US Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2019 (August 28th)

The first couple of days at the US Open have been used as a watching brief for myself after what had been a difficult month of Tennis Picks.

Even taking a step back at the start of a Grand Slam is not a bad decision to just make sure things are aligned as I would like and so it is important to be able to do that. It remains a very strong season for the Tennis Picks, but I do want to make sure this final Grand Slam of 2019 produces the results to get things ticking back in a positive direction.


The main contenders are all in New York City and I am going to sound like a broken record player by repeating that the men's event looks like it will be dominated by the top three players in the world and the women's is going to be very open.

In saying that, the US Open has been the tournament with the more varied Slam Champions in the men's game for a number of years now and so perhaps it will be the moment for Daniil Medvedev to back up what has been a very successful month to this point. In the last ten years Juan Martin Del Potro and Marin Cilic have won their only Grand Slam here in New York City, but Medvedev looks like someone who will be able to win multiple Slams as long as he stays healthy, while a run to the final eight would be seen as a successful tournament and keep the development going in the right direction.

As with any of the recent Grand Slams, I can make a case for a number of women to win the tournament, but perhaps Serena Williams will be the one to make ultimate redemption having been involved in the controversial Final of twelve months ago. She will need to try and get through the early Rounds without being pushed too hard, and Williams has lost some of the aura that has surrounded her, but it will be difficult to beat her as it has proven to be in recent Slams even though she has not gone on to equal Margaret Court's record just yet.


Below you can read my thoughts on a few of the matches I have selected from the Wednesday Second Round matches and I have also added any other selections to the 'MY PICKS' section.


Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 sets v Jeremy Chardy: Even though he has made improvements in 2019, it still feels like Stan Wawrinka is some way away from the form that saw him win three of the four Grand Slams. His numbers have remained pretty average with the limited success on the return of serve preventing from really putting some strong runs together and even the four sets he needed to come through his First Round match shows Wawrinka is a vulnerable player.

When you are struggling with the return of serve, it can put a lot of pressure on the serve and protecting that. Stan Wawrinka does not look like someone who is going to recover too many sets from being down a break and I do think he is someone that can be opposed in the early Rounds of tournaments before any momentum is put together.

It may not be right in the Second Round in New York City though as Wawrinka gets set to take on Jeremy Chardy who needed to come from 2-1 down in sets to upset Hubert Hurkacz in the First Round. The veteran Frenchman has been pretty average on the hard courts in 2019 and he has dropped down to Number 74 in the World Rankings while Chardy decided to only take on one hard court tournament prior to the US Open which may underline his own lack of belief in having a deep run here.

The win in the First Round will give Chardy some confidence and his serve can be a decent enough weapon for him. Jeremy Chardy has produced some consistent numbers over the last twelve months when comparing those to his 2019 numbers alone and the Frenchman is holding around 82% of service games played on the hard courts.

That is a mark only a little down on what Stan Wawrinka has been able to put together on the hard courts, but it is the higher Ranked player who also has the slightly superior returning numbers. Neither player has been able to put any consistent pressure on the return of serve, but the slightly better mark for Stan Wawrinka has to help as will his 5-0 head to head mark against Jeremy Chardy.

It has been over three years since these two have met on the Tour, but those previous matches have shown that Wawrinka's serve has more joy than the Chardy one and I am expecting something similar here. On recent form Stan Wawrinka can't be trusted easily to cover any kind of number, but he should be the better player and even a tight win in three or four sets is the most likely outcome in this match.


Reilly Opelka - 1.5 sets v Dominik Koepfer: Earlier this month Reilly Opelka reached a new career high in his World Ranking and he will be celebrating his 22nd birthday on the day he plays in the Second Round at the US Open. This is the first year the American is playing in the main draw at his home Grand Slam and beating Seeded Fabio Fognini in the First Round will open up his section and give Opelka every chance of finding a path into the second week of a Slam for the first time.

He can't take anything for granted though when taking on Dominik Koepfer who has come through the Qualifiers and won a main draw match against a higher Ranked opponent. Like his opponent, Koepfer reached his career high World Ranking earlier this month, but he is likely to crack the top 100 for the first time at the end of this tournament and almost certainly if he can upset the home player in the Second Round.

The German has shown he is very comfortable on the hard courts, but the majority of his successes have come off the main Tour. The makes the win in the First Round very important, but Koepfer would have expected to get the better of Jaume Munar and this is a much different kind of test for him.

Reilly Opelka is someone who has a huge serve which will put pressure on opponents, but he is a below average returner and that makes it difficult to believe in him. He will be looking to improve that, but like John Isner I do think Opelka will always be fairly limited and his hope is to build scoreboard pressure on any opponent.

It could easily work in a match like this one when you think Dominik Koepfer has held 77% of service games played and the majority of those are in matches away from the main Tour. He has shown to be a much better returner than Reilly Opelka, but the latter's serve is not easy to deal with and I think it is going to be the difference maker on the day.

The American holds a 3-0 head to head advantage over Koepfer and all of those matches have been on the hard courts over an eleven month period. In those matches Reilly Opelka has held 94% of service games played against Dominik Koepfer, while the latter has held 92%. That is not a big difference, but in terms of points won, Reilly Opelka has a significant edge which suggests he will be the more likely to earn some break points and also have an edge when it comes to any tie-breakers that will need to be played.

Dominik Koepfer has to be respected for coming through the Qualifiers and earning another win in the First Round, but I think Reilly Opelka can be backed to win this one in three or four sets.


Yoshihito Nishioka - 1.5 sets v Feliciano Lopez: Not many would have expected the veteran Feliciano Lopez to get the better of Taylor Fritz in the First Round, but he came from behind to win that match in four sets. Now he has to take on another player looking to begin to make a consistent impact on the Tour and once against Lopez is going to be the underdog to move through to another Round.

A surprising run to win the title at Queens Club back in June has stopped what had been a big slide down the World Rankings for Lopez, but ultimately it may be one of the last really big moments of his career. In recent years the Spaniard has not been the same force on the hard courts as he once had been and the limited return game has been one that has forced Lopez to try and get more out of the serve.

Over the last twelve months Feliciano Lopez has held 82% of the service games played on the hard courts and he has broken in 13% of return games. His percentage of points won behind the serve have continued to slide and that leaves him very vulnerable in matches that he might have once been expected to win.

In the Second Round he takes on Yoshihito Nishioka who produces some decent, if not spectacular, hard court tennis and who reached the Quarter Final in Cincinnati earlier this month. Like Lopez, Nishioka came from behind to win his First Round match in four sets and he will be heading into this match with some confidence after the tennis he has produced in recent weeks, although Nishioka is still a little inconsistent.

There needs to be a big improvement as far as his serve goes if Nishioka is going to make strides on the main Tour, and he has held just 74% of service games played on the hard courts in 2019. That is going to leave the Japanese player vulnerable when he plays the better players out there, but Nishioka is a very strong returner and I think he will be able to use the Lopez limitations on the return to help him get through in this one.

These players have met once before and it was Nishioka who beat Lopez in straight sets on the hard courts of Miami. That match took place in March 2016, but Lopez has slipped somewhat since then and I think Nishioka should have enough to get the better of him.

Feliciano Lopez will be confident after beating Taylor Fritz, but I expect the Nishioka return to ensure a win in three or four sets.


Roger Federer - 8.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: It has been a difficult fifteen months for Damir Dzumhur who has slipped from his career best World Ranking of Number 23 in July 2018 all the way back to Number 99 as he enters the US Open. The First Round win over Elliot Benchetrit might be good enough to prevent the Bosnian from falling out of the top 100, but it is going to need a massive upset for Dzumhur to prolong his stay in New York City.

The Second Round draw pits Dzumhur with former World Number 1 Roger Federer who is one of the leading favourites to win the title over the next two weeks. It was not an ideal start to the tournament for Federer having dropped the first set against Sumit Nagal having also been upset in the early Rounds in Cincinnati while preparing for this event, but the fact Federer was able to turn things around as comprehensively as he did will help.

Just under two months ago Roger Federer dropped the first set he played at Wimbledon, but he improved markedly from that time and perhaps should have won the title there. He will be hoping something similar happens here in New York City, although the declining numbers on the return of serve have to be a concern for the Swiss superstar.

Ultimately I don't think those issues will present a problem for Federer in this match as Damir Dzumhur is only holding 68% of service games played on the hard courts over the last twelve months. That is despite the fact that Dzumhur has had to step back his level as his World Ranking has fallen, while his return game is not really one that looks to be able to threaten Federer.

Roger Federer has held 90% of service games played on the hard courts over the last twelve months and he has won 70% of points played behind the serve on the surface. The expectation is that Federer is going to be able to keep Dzumhur under pressure and he should then be able to do enough to find the breaks of serve he needs to get into a position to cover the number.

This is actually going to be the third Grand Slam Roger Federer and Damir Dzumhur are meeting in, although the previous two matches were at the French Open and Wimbledon in 2015. In those matches Roger Federer held 96% of service games played and he broke in 42% of return games and, while he has declined in terms of the return in that time, I do think Federer is going to put Dzumhur under immense pressure throughout the time they spend on court.

Without a doubt this is a big handicap for Roger Federer to cover these days, but I am expecting a more dominant performance from the off compared with the First Round match he played. That should see him find the breaks of serve he will need to cover this number and I will look for him to do that.


David Goffin - 7.5 games v Gregoire Barrere: The last twelve months have seen David Goffin not able to produce the kind of tennis that has taken him into the top 10 of the World Rankings. Inconsistent results have been a real problem for the Belgian, but he has beaten an overmatched Frenchman in the First Round and the same will be expected when he takes on Gregoire Barrere in the Second Round.

David Goffin did drop a set in the First Round which underlines that he is still someone whose levels are not consistently at the same heights as they would have been eighteen months ago. The 78% of service games being held does leave Goffin vulnerable to dropping sets and being under pressure, but he remains a decent enough returner which is helping him avoid a significant drop in the World Rankings.

He is going into the Second Round as a big favourite to beat Gregoire Barrere who has come through the Qualifiers and stunned Cameron Norrie with a tough five set win in the First Round. Winning a final set tie-breaker is huge for Barrere who had been 1-5 in main Tour hard court matches before his win in the main draw here.

The Frenchman has held 78% of service games played on the hard courts on the main Tour in 2019, but he has continued to have his issues when it comes to the return of serve. That is potentially a huge boost for David Goffin who has considerably stronger returning stats which should mean he is the more likely to recover breaks of serve as well as potentially being able to pull away from his opponent in one or two sets played.

Gregoire Barrere's overall numbers on the hard courts are decent enough, but he has already had a difficult week in New York City and I do wonder if there is going to be some fatigue issues at play. At least the Qualifiers are not played in a best of five set format, but the First Round match saw three of the five sets needing tie-breakers and it would have been an emotional as well as physical effort put into the win.

These players met over three years ago at the French Open and it was David Goffin who won the match in pretty routine fashion. At this stage Gregoire Barrere must believe he is in a much better position to compete, but I still think Goffin has a significant edge in the match and I would expect him to get the better of this match.

Considering the form of the last twelve months I have to be slightly wary with the number of games that David Goffin has to cover. The Belgian also has a miserable record against players Ranked outside the top 100 on the hard courts over the last twelve months, but I expect his return game to get the better of Gregoire Barrere and I will back David Goffin to cover.


Alex De Minaur - 5.5 games v Cristian Garin: It has been a very good twelve months for Cristian Garin who has moved so far up the World Rankings that he is coming into this tournament as one of the Seeded players. The majority of his successes have come on the clay courts on which Garin will feel most comfortable though and that is the reason he is the underdog when he faces Alex De Minaur in the First Round.

The Chilean needed five sets to beat Christopher Eubanks in the First Round, but this is another step up for him against an opponent who is very happy on the hard courts. Cristian Garin has a really poor record on the hard courts as far as main Tour matches are concerned and his numbers reflect that too.

In fact even his overall numbers in 2019 on the hard courts need improving as Garin has only held 70% of the service games played on the surface. Returning serve has been a real struggle too and all in all you would have to make him a significant underdog in this match and perhaps a bigger one than he is.

Alex De Minaur has slipped back from his peak career World Ranking of Number 24 from earlier this year, but he is still very much at his happiest on the hard courts. There has been a real improvement in his level in 2019 compared with previous seasons and it is the De Minaur serve that has been a vital part of that improvement.

In 2019 the Australian is holding 87% of the service games played on the hard courts, but I think De Minaur would be the first to admit that he will want to be more effective on the return of serve if he is really going to kick on in his career. Last season Alex De Minaur was breaking in 24% of return games played on the hard courts, but that number has slipped to 20% this time around, although the serve has covered any drop off when it comes to win-loss record.

He was a solid winner in the First Round and I do think this is the kind of match that Alex De Minaur should be good enough to control. If he serves well he should keep Cristian Garin under pressure and the relatively vulnerable serve of the higher Ranked player should mean De Minaur has enough to be in a position to cover this number of games on the handicap.

I would have been looking for Alex De Minaur to have had to cover more games than where the line is set though and I will look for the Australian to continue serene progress at the US Open after a strong First Round win.

MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Sets @ 1.61 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Reilly Opelka - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Yoshihito Nishioka - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 8.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
David Goffin - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)