US Open Day 7 Picks

An interesting day yesterday as Serena Williams became a short priced favourite to win the Women's tournament and Roger Federer moved through after a fairly impressive win over Marin Cilic.

Novak Djokovic looks to be making easy progress through the draw, but may have a tougher time against Alexandr Dolgopolov than some may expect, while a match between Mardy Fish and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the next Round should be a classic.

The picks improved to 15-9 for the last 7 days and hopefully that trend can continue.

Day 7 Picks:

Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games vs David Nalbandian: David Nalbandian was one of the few players that would give both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal fits when he played them a few seasons ago, but he is clearly not the same player and I expect Nadal to roll.

The head to head is 2-2, with Nadal winning the last 2 matches including a comfortable win in Miami last season.

Nalbandian can push Nadal for a set, but his losses to Andy Murray, James Blake and Stanislas Wawrinka in the last 6 weeks shows he is still far short of matching it with the top 4 where he is in his career.

I expect Nadal to win 6-4, 6-2, 6-2


David Ferrer - 7.5 games vs Florian Mayer: David Ferrer was my tip to come through this Quarter of the draw and I expect he will be far too good for the awkward Florian Mayer tonight.

Mayer had lost his only 2 matches on the US hard courts this Summer before coming through the first 2 Rounds here, but he has been very fortunate with the draw and now faces a battle hardened Ferrer who beat Igor Andreev and James Blake.

Ferrer leads the head to head 3-2, winning their last 3 matches and he has not lost a set in those including a destruction here at the US Open in 2007.

I expect Ferrer's consistency to break down Mayer, and come through with a 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 win.


Andy Roddick - 4.5 games vs Julien Benneteau: I think Julien Benneteau has been overestimated in this match due to his excellent run at the Winston Salem Open last week, but that amount of tennis could catch up with him against Andy Roddick.

Roddick has looked in decent, if not spectacular, form in the tournament and his 3 wins last week at the Winston Salem Open will have gotten him in some shape. His serve will cause Benneteau problems and put the Frenchman under pressure on his own service games.

Roddick leads the head to head 3-1 but they have not played one another since 2008. In that time, I think Benneteau has regressed as a player and I expect the American to continue going forward.

I fancy a Roddick 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 win


Sam Stosur - 3.5 games vs Maria Kirilenko: Both women have done very well to come through the draw to this 4th Round encounter, but it is Sam Stosur who has been showing better form over the last 6 weeks and I expect she will be too good for her Russian opponent tonight.

Stosur had a hard time against Nadia Petrova in the last Round due to the heavy hitting nature of her opponent, but Kirilenko is less likely to bludgeon her off court.

Stosur's serve should be the difference between the two players and I think she will increase her head to head advantage to 4-2 tonight.

I expect the Australian will come through 6-3, 6-4.


Vera Zvonareva vs Sabine Lisicki: Sabine Lisicki has been in wonderful form over the last 2 weeks as she won a tournament in Dallas and has made easy progress through the draw here at Flushing Meadows, but I feel her run will come to an end against Vera Zvonareva.

Zvonareva enjoys playing on the hard courts and has also been in decent form of late. She also has won all 3 previous meetings with Lisicki, including in San Diego recently.

I expect the match will go 3 sets, as have all their previous meetings, but I think last year's Runner Up will still be standing at the end of a titanic battle.


Juan Martin Del Potro to win 3-1 in sets vs Gilles Simon: This is definitely going to be a closer match than some people may imagine because Gilles Simon's style of play gives Juan Martin Del Potro fits.

Just take a look at their head to head record- Simon won the first meeting in 3 sets in New Haven, Del Potro won in 5 here at the US Open in 2008 and then won in straight sets at Wimbledon in June (7-6, 7-6, 7-5) in a match that could easily have gone a lot longer.

The difference in the match will come down to the fact Del Potro gets plenty more free points on his serve, because I think Simon can hang around in rallies, and so I do expect the Argentine to get through.

I just wouldn't be that surprised if Simon manages to take a set off of him on the way as Del Potro wins 7-5, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4.


Andy Murray to win 3-1 in sets vs Feliciano Lopez: These two players last met at Wimbledon in June in what was a routine straight sets win for Andy Murray but that was at a time when Feliciano Lopez was shattered after a long run in the tournament.

The Spaniard has been serving well in the tournament so far and usually plays some solid stuff on the hard courts with a big serve and good volleying skills.

He has only taken 1 set in 5 meetings against Andy Murray, whose strong returning game makes life a little awkward for Lopez, but I see him picking up his 2nd tonight as the British Number 1 has not been serving as well as he can.

I think the match will be close for 2 sets, which will be split between the players, before Murray's superior returning begins to tell on Lopez and he comes through 6-3, 6-7, 6-4, 6-3


MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games @ 1.91 Stan James (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 7.5 games @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Andy Roddick - 4.5 games @ 2.18 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 3.5 games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Vera Zvonareva @ 2.05 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro win 3-1 in sets @ 3.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Andy Murray win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 William Hill (1 Unit)




US OPEN UPDATE: 15-9, + 13.29 Units

Tennis Picks August 7th Washington and San Diego

Agnieska Radwanska reached the Final so we have a 9.00 pick running on her today to win the tournament against Vera Zvonareva.

John Isner just failed to get through to the Final in Washington as he lost a final set tie break to Gael Monfils but fortunately we covered the outright pick by taking Monfils yesterday.

I only have a couple of Picks today, and one of those is a cover:

Vera Zvonareva vs Agnieska Radwanska: I would only recommend taking this if you were on Radwanska outright at the start of the week. We have already covered our stake with the Polish player reaching the Final, but I am going to play 4 Units on Zvonareva to take away some of the profit on a Radwanska win.

Zvonareva has a strong head to head record against Radwanska and I have a feeling she will win today and at least this way we can earn some profit from the match regardless of the outcome.


Gael Monfils - 3 games vs Radek Stepanek: As I said yesterday, whoever won the match between Monfils and John Isner was bound to be the favourite in this Final and I do believe Monfils will go on and win the tournament.

He has been serving well and is used to playing the awkward style of Radek Stepanek so there should not be any surprises for him here. Stepanek is playing well himself this week, but this is by far the biggest test he will face and I can see Monfils' speed grinding him down in straight sets.

Monfils has won the last two matches between the players in straight sets and holds a 5-2 overall record. I imagine that will be 6-2 after the Final.


MY PICKS: Vera Zvonareva @ 1.53 Pinnacle (4 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3 games @ 2.18 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE WASHINGTON/SAN DIEGO: - 2.1 Units

Tennis Picks August 6th Washington and San Diego

One down, two to go- that is how the outright picks are going as we get down to the Final 4 in both of these tournaments this week.

Marcos Baghdatis was a huge disappointment yesterday as he fell in straight sets to Donald Young. I warned myself that it could be one of those weeks for Young, but did not heed that advice and still fancied Baghdatis to get the job done. He had 3 set points in the 2nd set but failed to convert- more disappointing was the fact he failed to get the ball in play on any of those points before falling in the tie break.

It was more frustrating considering he faced Radek Stepanek in the Semi Final if he had got through and he could have really boosted the coffers as a 19.00 shot outright at the start of the week.

Now we have John Isner and Agnieska Radwanska left in the outright as the tournaments come to a close.

The Picks:

Andrea Petkovic vs Agnieska Radwanska: Anyone who followed my outrights at the start of the week know we will win 4 units if Radwanska makes it through to the Final, but the Polish player had called for a trainer in her last match with Daniela Hantuchova and has since admitted that she considered pulling out of the match.

Petkovic has become a popular figure in the stands as she follows victories with the 'Petko Dance' that became famous when she did it for a joke last year. She has been solid on the hard courts and has had a routine path through to the Semi Final, but generally has faltered when coming up against the better players on the tour with losses to Maria Sharapova, Na Li and Marion Bartoli on the hard courts this year.

Radwanska is a solid hard court player herself and reached the Final here last year so obviously must like the conditions. She came back from a horror start against Daniela Hantuchova in the last Round by overturning a 0-6 first set to win in 3 sets. However, I am still concerned about her shoulder and whether she wants to fight through.

Radwanska also holds a 2-0 head to head over Petkovic, winning both matches on the hard courts of Tokyo in the last 2 seasons. Personally, I thought Radwanska would be the favourite, but the injury has  me concerned and I will cover my outright here.


Vera Zvonareva - 3.5 games vs Ana Ivanovic: Ana Ivanovic is apparently still having a little bit of trouble with her wrist, and she now faces a real competitor in the form of Vera Zvonareva.

The Russian is in good form having won a hard court tournament in Azerbaijan a couple of weeks ago and her 3 set win over Sabine Lasicki is impressive, especially the focus she had in the match.

Ivanovic has won through in straight sets in every match this week, but she is still capable of throwing in a stinker and she will be under more pressure against a quality opponent today.

The head to head is 4-4, but it is Zvonareva that has won the last 2 meetings, although they have not played since March 2009. Zvonareva remains the stronger player and I think she will come through with a break in each set to record a straight sets victory.


Gael Monfils vs John Isner: This is another pick for those that followed the outright picks at the start of the week- we took Isner at 10.00 to win the tournament so will be due 4.5 Units if he makes it through to the Final.

I am going to put a couple of units on Monfils here to cover the outright as the Frenchman has played well this week and the lottery of tie breaks is not worth the stress. Whoever wins this match will be the big favourite to win the tournament on Sunday.

As for personal opinion, I think Monfils is overestimated in the match to win, especially the way Isner can serve in tie breaks. If I had no outrights running, I would suggest the value is on the American.


MY PICKS: Andrea Petkovic @ 1.72 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Vera Zvonareva - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils @ 1.66 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE WASHINGTON/SAN DIEGO: + 0.58 Units

Wimbledon Ladies Tournament Outright Picks and Preview

The Women's tour has really suffered this year in terms of quality, but it does mean that the prices for their tournaments are generally larger than for the Men's. The return of the Williams sisters after several months off is the story as we head into Wimbledon but there are other issues that will be determined in the next fortnight.

Will Maria Sharapova continue her resurgence and recapture the Wimbledon crown?

Will Caroline Wozniacki show why she is the World Number 1?

Will the likes of Petra Kvitova, Julia Goerges and Victoria Azarenka win a Grand Slam for the 'new generation'?

Will any British Women make the 2nd Round of the tournament?


First Quarter
Caroline Wozniacki sits on top of the draw as the World Number 1, but she has been written off in a number of places as a winner of Wimbledon. It is interesting to note she decided to play in an indoor hard court tournament rather than taking any time on the grass and we will see if that was the correct decision soon.

Wozniacki should be able to get through the first 3 Rounds here in the tournament but that is where her tournament could draw to a close as she is likely to face Dominika Cibulkova or the dangerous Julia Goerges. Cibulkova is less likely to provide the problems that will lead to victory, but Goerges can hit through the ball and that will be a problem for Qozniacki who relies more on her defence to win matches.

Even if Wozniacki is still around by the time the Quarter Finals come around, it is then she will potentially see her biggest hurdle in the form of Maria Sharapova. The Russian may have a couple of problems before she reaches the Quarter Finals, most notably in the forms of Lucie Safarova and Sam Stosur.

Safarova is a big hitting left hander that can play at an exceptionally high level when she is on her game and could be a danger in the 3rd Round. Safarova has won the only previous meeting with Sharapova, but doesnt have the same grass court pedigree and I would expect the latter to get through.

Sam Stosur could cause problems with her solid serve for Sharapova, but the Russian has won all 8 previous meetings with her before and I would expect Sharapova to get the job done again.

Sharapova, I would expect, would be too strong for any of her potential Quarter Final opponents and I think she will be one of the Semi Finalists.


Second Quarter
This section is highlighted by Serena Williams, but she has not been given the kindest of draws if I am honest. A potential 2nd Round meeting with Bojana Jovanovski is not as straight forward as it may look, especially considering the lack of court time Serena has had.

Furthermore, a 4th Round match with Marion Bartoli, the winner in Eastbourne, is not to be overlooked. Serena may have won both meetings with the Frenchwoman, but Bartoli has plenty of hitting power and could definitely cause one or two problems for the American.

To make the path a little more complicated, Serena will eventually have to face either Na Li, the French Open Winner and Australian Open Runner Up, Agnieska Radwanska, a former Junior Champion at Wimbledon, Ana Ivanovic, a former World Number 1, or one of the most dangerous unseeded players in Sabine Lisicki, a recent winner on grass in Birmingham.

Na Li is scheduled to meet Sabine Lisicki in the 2nd Round and that could be one of the matches of the day. Lisicki has won their only previous meeting and has shown some solid grass court pedigree as a former Quarter Finalist here at Wimbledon.

Ana Ivanovic has not had the best of times when playing on grass, and I think the 4th Round meeting from this section could be Agnieska Radwanska and Sabine Lisicki.

I feel Lisicki would provide more of a problem for Serena Williams in the Quarter Final with her hitting ability whereas Radwanska is more of a defensive minded player that looks to frustrate opponents into mistakes.

Serena Williams may just get through to the Semi Final meeting with Maria Sharapova, but this is going to be tough for her throughout.


Third Quarter
Victoria Azarenka may be the highest rated seed in this section of the draw, but she could not have been over the moon to see a possible 3rd Round clash with Daniela Hantuchova on the horizon. Both players should get through their first 2 Rounds to set up a mouth watering clash.

Daniela Hantuchova (I have a definite soft spot for her) is one of the form players on the WTA Tour, reaching the Final in Birmingham and the Semi Finals in Eastbourne coming into this tournament. She beat Caroline Wozniacki in the French Open and a recent win over Venus Williams shows she is mentally in a good place.

With a 2-0 head to head record against Azarenka, and arguably the better grass court pedigree, I feel a surprise here.

If Hantuchova can win that match, it will really open the door to a Quarter Final spot.

There her opponent is likely to come from Francesca Schiavone, Andrea Petkovic or the dangerous Ekaterina Makarova. Schiavone has not really had the best time on grass in recent years and I am sure Makarova will feel she can reverse the loss in their only other meeting.

Makarova won at Eastbourne last year before losing to Venus Williams and definitely can play on the grass. Andrea Petkovic should be her 4th Round opponent, but she too has not had the best record on grass courts and Makarova could reverse her only loss to the German too.

The winner of this Quarter is very much likely to come from the Daniela Hantuchova-Victoria Azarenka 3rd Round match. I think the Slovakian is in brilliant form and could achieve her best result at Grand Slam level this year.


Fourth Quarter
The final quarter of the draw really has some special players in the mix with Petra Kvitova, Vera Zvonareva and Venus Williams all likely to have realistic ambitions of winning the title.

Vera Zvonareva should get through the first 2 Rounds with little problems but then faces a tough looking match against Tsvetana Pironkova. Pironkova will present problems after reaching the Semi Finals here last year (losing to Zvonareva) and also pushing Serena to 3 sets in Eastbourne last week.

However, the Russian may prove a little too strong in the end and should move on to a 4th Round match with Venus Williams.

Venus Williams will first have to beat Jelena Jankovic in the 3rd Round, a tough match for the elder Williams who has lost to Jankovic on the grass at Wimbledon before. They have a 6-6 head to head record and Jankovic actually won their last meeting in Rome last year while losing just 1 game.

Regardless who gets through that tie, I would favour Zvonareva to get through to the Quarter Finals.

Petra Kvitova should move through to the 4th Round as she has been given a kind draw. Her biggest threat comes from Roberta Vinci, a winner of the Unicef Open in Holland last week, but I feel Kvitova's power will overwhelm the Italian.

In the 4th Round, Kvitova is likely to face the winner of the Yanina Wickmayer-Svetlanta Kuznetsova match. The Russian has won both meetings with Wickmayer in the past, but both have the same kind of level on grass courts.

At this stage, I would favour Kvitova, the Wimbledon Semi Finalist of last year, to come through and play Zvonareva.

This Quarter Final should be an excellent one to watch. Both Kvitova and Zvonareva have 2 wins apiece against one another, but I think the Russian will be the stronger player and get through in 3 tough sets.


Semi Finals and Beyond
The first Semi Final between Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams could determine the winner of the tournament. Both have beaten the other 1 time on grass, although Serena has won 5 in a row on all surfaces.

Serena also beat Sharapova in the 4th Round in a very good match last year, but the fortunes of the two players are reversed this time. Sharapova is the player in form while Serena is the one on the road to recovery.

This could be another intense battle between the two, but if Sharapova can keep her serve in check, I think she will once again be playing in the Wimbledon Final.


The second Semi Final will be seen by the two participants as perhaps their last real chance to win the big prize. Zvonareva has won 4 of the 6 meetings with Hantuchova, but the last 3 have been tight affairs with Daniela winning 2 of those.

Hantuchova is in the form of her career, but it is hard to take her as a serious contender to win the title considering she can get the touch of the nerves. However, Hantuchova may just have been given the final confidence boost to do well after beating Venus Williams in Eastbourne during the course of the week.

Zvonareva has the mental boost of making it to the Final here last year and that may be what tips this Semi Final in her favour.


The Final, as I said, was likely to be decided in the first Semi Final and I believe that will be the case here. Sharapova has the better grass court game, and also enjoys a strong head to head over Zvonareva.

There will be nerves, but reaching the Semi Final at Roland Garros would have helped Sharapova no end, and I think she will win her 2nd Wimbledon title this year.


MY PICKS: Maria Sharapova win @ 5.5 Various (2 Units)
Vera Zvonareva win @ 21.0 BetFred (1 Unit E/W)
Daniela Hantuchova win @ 51.0 Victor Chandler (0.5 Units E/W)