US Open Tennis Day 14 Pick 2025- Women's Final (Saturday 6th September)

The Women's Final is set for Saturday and it looks like it could be a really competitive one. even if there are some doubts about the nerves of the two players involved.

A disappointing Semi Final run for the Tennis Picks has stung, especially with a couple of selections being a point or two away from swinging back in our favour, but hopefully the Final Weekend can provide a couple of winning selections.

Aryna Sabalenka-Amanda Anisimova over 21.5 games: The last time Amanda Anisimova reached a Grand Slam Final, nerves clearly got the better of her and she did not even win a game.

The fact that was in the last Grand Slam and the American has become the first player to lose 6-0, 6-0 at a Major and then reach the Final at the next Slam speaks volumes about the belief Amanda Anisimova must have in her own game.

It helps that she has a strong record against Aryna Sabalenka having upset the World Number 1 in the Wimbledon Semi Final, although it was Sabalenka who won when the two met at Roland Garros in the second Grand Slam of the season.

Nerves have been an issue for Aryna Sabalenka at the business end of Grand Slams this season and it will not be lost on her that all three previous runs have been ended by players representing the United States.

She is the defending Champion here, and Aryna Sabalenka is capable of taking the racquet out of any opponent's hands.

Fatigue should not be an issue for either player, although there are some concerns about the fact that Amanda Anisimova's Semi Final ended in the early hours of Friday morning. That can be tough to recover from, especially with this Final scheduled for middle of the day on Saturday, but the head to head is a big boost for Amanda Anisimova and it should lead to a competitive Final and one that could easily see both players win a set.

There is potential for any straight sets win to also surpass this total set and that looks to be the best play in the women's Final at the fourth Grand Slam of the season.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka-Amanda Anisimova Over 21.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)

US Open Update: 25-19, + 3.30 Units (87 Units Staked, + 3.79% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2024 (Friday 6th September)

The women's Final was set on Thursday and it is now the turn of the men.

There is no doubt it has been a positive tournament for the home fans with an American player set to compete in both Finals to be played this weekend, although the name of the men's Finalist will be determined on Day 12 at the tournament.

Taylor Fritz - 1.5 sets v Frances Tiafoe: The hard court form of both of these players entering the US Open was far from ideal and expectations for Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe were perhaps not as high as could be.

Both Americans have really performed well in the tournament though and the winner will be the first men's player from the United States to reach a Grand Slam Final since 2009.

It has been a period with the US players have come back to the fore, but they have struggled to get over the line and that carrot is going perhaps play a part in the match. Both are going to be given exceptional support from the New York City crowd and this has the makings of a fascinating match.

Frances Tiafoe showed he was perhaps returning to something like his best in the warm up events for the US Open- he has certainly had the weaker year overall compared with Taylor Fritz, but a run to the Semi Final in Washington and then the Final in Cincinnati will have given Tiafoe a boost in confidence.

He has not shied away from suggesting that his level has seen him lose matches to opponents he feels should not beat him, but this is another tough step for Frances Tiafoe.

We know Taylor Fritz has not played that well on the hard courts since winning the title in Delray Beach, but he did have a solid showing at Wimbledon and his level at the US Open has been impressive. With the likes of Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz out of the draw, there is little doubt that both Fritz and Tiafoe have to feel a big opportunity has been presented to win a maiden Grand Slam.

The mental edge has to be with Taylor Fritz who has won his last six matches against Frances Tiafoe since dropping the first against his compatriot. The last match was in 2023, but the wins include at the Australian Open and a Masters event in Miami and the feeling is that Fritz is playing at a level that should give him the edge in this match.

Of course much is going to come down to which of these players handles the occasion the best- neither have been used to reaching this stage of the Grand Slam events, but even less so facing an opponent they will feel they can beat rather than a Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer.

This will play a part, but Fritz has really strong numbers against Frances Tiafoe with holds in 85% of service games played compared with 74% for the latter.

Neither is particularly known for their returning qualities, but Taylor Fritz has been producing the bigger serving in this tournament with at least 70% of service points won in each of the five matches played. It means he has only dropped serve on five occasions in the run to the final four, while the Tiafoe serve has been broken ten times.

Frances Tiafoe has found a few more breaks of serve, which have covered those dropped games, but it will be much tougher to recover breaks against someone serving as well as Taylor Fritz has been over this fortnight.

The fans should enjoy the match knowing a home player is going to be representing in the men's Final on Sunday, but the feeling is that Taylor Fritz can continue his dominance of Frances Tiafoe with a strong win.

Jannik Sinner-Jack Draper over 35.5 games: The controversy of the two failed tests that Jannik Sinner was ultimately absolved of any wrong-doing without facing any suspension continues to cast a cloud over the US Open. The World Number 1 is doing his best to let his tennis speak for him, but this is a situation that the sport would have loved to have avoided and commentators and fans will have questions.

His tennis has been very good in the main and Jannik Sinner beat Daniil Medvedev in the Quarter Final to eliminate the only other men's player left that is a previous Grand Slam Champion. It means the Italian is the big favourite to go on and lift this hard court Slam title having already done the same at the Australian Open and there is little doubt his confidence is high.

Ignoring the outside noise has been a huge factor and Jannik Sinner won the Cincinnati Masters title in prepartion for the US Open before embarking on this run to the Semi Final. Big serving has allowed Sinner to take a few more risks when it comes to the return of serve and that is going to be important as he gets set to face a young British player who has really made big headlines back home.

Jack Draper has long been though of as the natural successor to Andy Murray, but even his own team have to be a little surprised by what he has achieved here in New York City. The draw has opened up for him with the very early defeat suffered by Carlos Alcaraz, but Draper still had to take the opportunity and he has yet to drop a set in the tournament after crushing Alex De Minaur in the Quarter Final.

The advantage of having a huge lefty serve has really been put to good use and Draper has only dropped serve three times in the tournament. Being able to roll through service games has allowed the British player to just be a bit more aggressive on the return and ultimately he has worn down the opponents faced during this tournament.

His run to the Semi Final means Jack Draper will be moving into the top 20 of the World Rankings for the first time, but winning this title would take him to the brink of of cracking the top 10. The one previous meeting with Jannik Sinner ended in a straight sets win on the grass courts of Queen's Club back in 2021 when there was 286 Ranking places between the players as Draper secured the upset.

Both are much improved these days and the serving capabilities of both suggests this will be a tighter and more competitive match than the layers may think. The total games line looks very low with that in mind and you would think it will be comfortably surpassed if both players win a set, which they are more than capable of doing in this Semi Final.

Jack Draper did have the need to call out for some medical assistance in his Quarter Final win, but that did not seem to hamper him and the day of rest between matches will do him good. Winning this Semi Final may be a step too far at this stage of his career, but Draper can build his experience level by challenging the World Number 1 in what should be a very good Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner-Jack Draper Over 35.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

US Open Update: 26-17, + 10.24 Units (86 Units Staked, + 11.91% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 10 Picks 2023 (September 6th)

Half of the four Semi Final matches will have been set late on Tuesday evening at the US Open, but the other two matches are going to be set on Wednesday on Day 10 of the tournament.

All of the remaining matches will be played on Arthur Ashe over the coming days and there are some extremely hot conditions to get through before rainy conditions are expected on Saturday for the Women's Final.

That means it is going to be just as challenging for players to deal with the conditions as it is with facing the opponent on the other side of the net and the four Quarter Final matches could all become very interesting to watch.

Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games v Alexander Zverev: We have yet to see the best of the defending Champion at the US Open, but the fact of the matter is that Carlos Alcaraz has made relatively serene progress in the draw.

He will be expecting the competition to get tougher in the final few days of the last Grand Slam of the 2023 season, but Carlos Alcaraz definitely will believe that he can outlast this Quarter Final opponent if necessary.

Alexander Zverev spoke of the 'disrespect' he may have felt that the media and fans were speaking about a Carlos Alcaraz-Novak Djokovic Final before a ball had been hit at the US Open, and he has already mentioned that he has stopped one 'dream' match when eliminating Jannik Sinner in the Fourth Round.

After the match played here between Alcaraz and Sinner last season, some were hoping for a repeat in the Quarter Final and now Alexander Zverev takes aim at stopping the Final that most fans 'want' to see on Sunday.

He is playing well and continues to show signs that he is returning to the form that had pushed him into World Number 2 in June 2022 when an injury at the US Open cost the German the remainder of the season. A slow start to 2023 was a concern as he rebuilt match fitness, but the French Open has sparked an upturn in results and level of performance and Alexander Zverev will most certainly be targeting a spot in the World Tour Finals to conclude the year.

However, Alexander Zverev has just finished a match that lasted close to five hours and that follows two consecutive matches that lasted almost four hours each. He looked tired at times in the fourth and fifth set against Jannik Sinner and one day of rest may not be enough for Zverev to bring his best tennis that is going to be needed to knock off the top Seed in this Quarter Final.

If there is any letdown physically, Carlos Alcaraz is going to be able to take advantage and it is going to be very tough for Alexander Zverev to be competitive.

He did upset Alcaraz at the French Open in 2022 when beating him in the Quarter Final, but he would have entered that match up with a lot more energy than Alexander Zverev is likely going to bring to the court on Wednesday.

You have to respect how well Alexander Zverev played in reaching the Cincinnati Masters Semi Final, and he has been serving well at this tournament. The concern is that if fatigue builds up again, Zverev may struggle to deal with the energy that Carlos Alcaraz will bring and it looks like a match that may end up going in the direction of the top Seed once he gets through the early pressure that Zverev will bring.

Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 sets v Andrey Rublev: Two very good friends meet in the Quarter Final at the US Open and it is a big match for Andrey Rublev who has lost all eight matches played at Grand Slam level in this Round.

Breaking through and reaching the Semi Final of a Grand Slam could see Andrey Rublev take the next step in what has been a solid career already, but he will have to control his emotions. In the Fourth Round win over Jack Draper, Rublev certainly allowed those to get the better of him as he dropped the second set and fell a break down early in the third, but he was able to rally and beat the talented youngster, who also saw his body break down as the match developed.

It is unlikely that Andrey Rublev will benefit from Daniil Medvedev falling away in this Quarter Final after the World Number 3 rallied from a set down to break down and eventually crush Alex De Minaur in the Fourth Round.

There were some early signs that Daniil Medvedev was not feeling completely himself- he had to see a doctor at the end of the first set and admitted he had taken something to help himself earlier in the day, but by the end of the match Medvedev was cruising through.

Daniil Medvedev does not shy away from the fact that he feels his best tennis is played on the hard courts and so there will have been a little bit of disappointment with his results in Canada and Cincinnati in the warm up events. He has looked stronger in the US Open, and it is very hard to ignore the fact that the last three wins have all been against players Ranked higher than the highest Ranked player that Andrey Rublev has beaten.

Unsurprisingly, Andrey Rublev has some solid numbers behind in his four wins, but none of the opponents have been Ranked higher than World Number 73 and even then Rublev has dropped a set in each of his last three wins.

Now he has to step up against an opponent who has won six of their last eight matches- Andrey Rublev had won two in a row to snap his five match losing run to his friend, but Daniil Medvedev crushed him for the loss of just four games in Dubai to win the title there earlier this year.

In those previous matches, Daniil Medvedev has a significant edge when it comes to the serving numbers compared with Andrey Rublev.

Those edges have been clear in the two previous Grand Slam meetings between the players- Daniil Medvedev has beaten Andrey Rublev in straight sets at the US Open in 2020 and Australian Open in 2021, both in Quarter Final matches, and you have to believe the higher Ranked player will have the edge in this match as long as he is over whatever was ailing him on Monday.

Andrey Rublev deserves respect, but he is yet to show that he really believes he belongs alongside the very elite on the Tour. And when you lack that belief, it is in these big matches where it really shines through with the feeling being that it will be a case of more of the same in this Quarter Final with Daniil Medvedev fancied to win this one in three or four sets.

Madison Keys - 1.5 games v Marketa Vondrousova: A former US Open Finalist, Madison Keys might feel her experience served her in good stead in her comfortable win over Jessica Pegula in the Fourth Round. However, this time Keys is going up against the last Grand Slam winner on the WTA Tour and so it is unlikely that Marketa Vondrousova is going to be overawed by the occasion.

After winning Wimbledon, Marketa Vondrousova might have been expected to have some difficulties that have been the issue for other first time Grand Slam winners in recent years on the Tour. A new expectation around them and a target on the back from other players has contributed to the issues players have had in backing up Grand Slam successes, but Vondrousova performed well enough in Canada and Cincinnati and losing matches to Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek is not exactly poor form.

She had to battle in the Fourth Round to come from a set down to beat Peyton Stearns, but this is another step up in class and the big issues around Marketa Vondrousova is how her shoulder is holding up. The serve was a real struggle for her in the Fourth Round where she was broken four times by the American across the net, while the shoulder problem also meant Marketa Vondrousova had to withdraw from the Doubles to make sure she has enough rest to prepare for the Quarter Final.

Over the course of the year the Czech player has had decent hard court numbers and is perhaps under-rated on the surface, and Vondrousova had been in very good form in the opening three matches at the US Open before the issues in the Fourth Round. Marketa Vondrousova will still feel she can prepare with the day of rest between matches, but she will also be dealing with a hot crowd who will be looking to back their home player into the Semi Final.

Madison Keys did reach the Quarter Final in Washington, but two early losses in Montreal and Cincinnati meant she came into the US Open under the radar with the likes of Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff the leading American hopes. Crushing Pegula in the manner she did in the Fourth Round will certainly have just reminded the fans of the qualities Madison Keys has and the former top ten Ranked player is rounding into strong form after a good run at Wimbledon a couple of months ago.

There is no doubt that this match is going to come down to the battle between the Madison Keys serve and the Marketa Vondrousova return- in this tournament, Keys has won a very high percentage of service points and only been broken twice in four matches, but Vondrousova has broken every opponent faced at least five times.

Only one of those opponents were in the top 50 of the World Rankings though and Madison Keys is going to be plenty confident having beaten two top 15 Ranked players already.

No one is going to confuse Madison Keys with being a top return player and she can play over-aggressive which leads to errors, but the American has broken at least four times in three straight wins in the draw.

It is hard to rule out the upset, because Marketa Vondrousova has shown plenty of character and ability to fight through adversity, but Madison Keys can dictate the tempo of the match. She is a former Finalist in New York City, so should be able to handle the occasion, and the fans can push Keys through against a player that perhaps struggles to overcome shoulder problems.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Qinwen Zheng: A new World Number 1 was crowned at this tournament, but Aryna Sabalenka may only really feel deserving if she is able to win the US Open now that main rivals Elena Rybakina and Iga Swiatek have exited the tournament.

Winning the Australian Open looked to be a breakthrough moment for Aryna Sabalenka, but at the French Open and Wimbledon the old issues came up again as she just failed to get over the line in matches at the business end of those events. In recent seasons Sabalenka has regularly reached the Quarter Final or Semi Final at Grand Slam events, but the losses from strong winning positions against Karolina Muchova and Ons Jabeur will have really stung.

A run to the Semi Final at Cincinnati before another loss to Muchova will have given Aryna Sabalenka confidence and she is pushing for a third straight run to the US Open Semi Final.

At some stage Sabalenka is going to have to get through the nervy moments, but she has been dominant in her first four wins here and is a significant favourite to beat Qinwen Zheng in this Quarter Final.

Experience is certainly on the side of the Belarusian player, who is also a favourite of the crowd, but she will have to respect the 20 year old opponent who hits very big and is coming in after upsetting Ons Jabeur in the Fourth Round. Qinwen Zheng also took a set from Iga Swiatek in Cincinnati before falling apart, although she did not have the best record against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts prior to the US Open.

Before the win over Jabeur, Qinwen Zheng had lost six of seven matches against top 20 Ranked players on this surface, but the serve is a big weapon and that is going to play a factor in the match.

The concern has to be that Zheng has not served as well as she would have hoped in this tournament and offering up looks at the second serve in this match will be very dangerous.

If she does serve well, it could be a tight match and a tough one for Aryna Sabalenka, but Qinwen Zheng could find it difficult to deal with the big serve coming the other way. It is extremely unlikely that Aryna Sabalenka will return as well as she has in three of the four matches at the US Open where she has won at least 60% of return points, but she has broken at least three times in all four matches and that is likely going to give the new World Number 1 the edge.

This has been a tournament of serene progress from Sabalenka, but she is never that far away from being dragged into a big match. There is every chance this could be one, but this is a Quarter Final in which Aryna Sabalenka should be fresher and ultimately stronger than Qinwen Zheng and that may see the Belarusian pull clear after a tough first set is in the bag.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Madison Keys - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

US Open Update: 33-33, - 11.80 Units (132 Units Staked, - 8.94% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 8 Picks 2021 (September 6th)

The Quarter Final line up at the final Grand Slam of the season will be completed on Monday on Day 8 of the tournament.

There are some good looking matches to be played in the Fourth Round and I think it will be a day the fans can enjoy.

Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games v Jenson Brooksby: A difficult start was quickly erased by Novak Djokovic as he cruised past Kei Nishikori in four sets in the Third Round at the US Open. The match up is one that the World Number 1 has enjoyed throughout his career, but Novak Djokovic has sometimes found the crowd a little irritating in New York City and he is going to be up against them on Day 8 of the tournament.

In the Fourth Round, Novak Djokovic will be taking on 20 year old American Jenson Brooksby who is enjoying a really strong week at the US Open. He looks like he is going to be hitting a new career World Ranking by the end of this tournament and Jenson Brooksby will feel he has nothing to lose in this match which could make him dangerous.

Jenson Brooksby has needed thirteen sets to move through to the Fourth Round at the US Open and it was a battling five setter to overcome Aslan Karatsev in the Third Round. It was a match that lasted just ten minutes short of four hours, but Jenson Brooksby has spent at least that much time on court in each win so far this week and he is going to be under pressure to produce the same level of returning which has seen the youngster edge through the draw.

He has created at least sixteen break points in each match in New York City, but Novak Djokovic has an underrated serve and I certainly think it is going to be a huge test for Jenson Brooksby to match those return numbers from earlier in the tournament. The pressure will be on the serve and Jenson Brooksby has not really been as strong behind that shot as he would have liked at the US Open, while now he has to face the player many will consider as the strongest returner in tennis history.

I do expect Novak Djokovic to put plenty of pressure on Jenson Brooksby, although the American does seem to have an 'x factor' that makes him dangerous. His performances on the hard courts through 2021 have been impressive, albeit with many of those matches being played at Challenger level, and Jenson Brooksby will have the crowd behind him for every minute he spends on the court.

The time already spent on the court has to be a worry for Brooksby too and I do think Novak Djokovic will have too much for the younger player. The first set could be quite competitive, but I think Djokovic is going to have a big edge when it comes to the return of serve and he may be able to rattle through the sets played after the first one as he looks to reach another Quarter Final at a Grand Slam.

It is a big mark without a doubt, but Novak Djokovic has been serving really well so far this week and his return can put him in a position to cover.

Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Jannik Sinner: A title win and a run to the Miami Masters underlines how effective Jannik Sinner can be on the hard courts earlier this year and this summer the Italian also won the title in Washington. That makes him a dangerous opponent to any player he faces in the US Open and Jannik Sinner will be confident in his own chances.

The performances at the US Open have been decent from Jannik Sinner, but he needs to be more than decent to beat the Olympic Champion and Cincinnati Masters winner. He needed all five sets to beat Gael Monfils in the Third Round, but Sinner actually faced more break points than he created in that match and it was one that could have easily gone the other way.

Despite the strong performances and results in 2021, there is still a sense of inconsistency about Jannik Sinner and that is perhaps not a massive surprise for a 20 year old with a bright future. His serve is going to have to be in good shape if Jannik Sinner is going to find a way to beat Alexander Zverev who has had little issues working his way through to the Fourth Round.

The Third Round win over Jack Sock may have been tougher if the American had not struggled with a thigh injury and Alexander Zverev was perhaps just being a little humble when he suggested he may have been beaten after the strong first set produced by his opponent. The German had cruised through the first two Rounds in the draw with some stellar numbers on both the serve and return and last year's US Open Runner Up clearly is enjoying the conditions in New York City.

Alexander Zverev has won at least 76% of the points played behind his serve in each of his three wins at the US Open and, if he continues that level, it is going to be very difficult to beat him. It has allowed Alexander Zverev to play with some freedom in the return games and he has created at least ten break points in each match so far in the tournament and I do think his past experiences playing Jannik Sinner will help.

Last year Jannik Sinner did beat Alexander Zverev in four sets as he upset the higher Ranked player at the French Open, but it was the latter who earned revenge in their hard court match. Alexander Zverev did not serve as he would have liked in the sole hard court match, but he did break in 40% of the return games played and over this distance I expect Zverev to have plenty of successes.

Jannik Sinner is a really good player that you would underestimate at your own risk, but I do think Alexander Zverev is playing at a considerably higher level than the Italian so far this week. With the momentum behind him from the Olympic Games and Cincinnati, Alexander Zverev can produce the tennis that gives him a chance to cover this wide handicap mark even if Jannik Sinner does enough to win a set on the day.

Lloyd Harris v Reilly Opelka: This is going to be a 'blink and you'll miss it' kind of match and I am not expecting a lot of long rallies when Reilly Opelka and Lloyd Harris meet in the Fourth Round on Day 8 of the US Open tournament. Both of these players will feel the serve is going to be the ultimate weapon for them and there may be a few chances for either to break the serve of the other which means it is a match that could come down to a point or two in Tie-Breakers.

That was the situation when Reilly Opelka beat Lloyd Harris in Toronto, but it was a day on which the latter played the superior tennis. There was a big difference in their serving numbers, but Reilly Opelka came from a set down to win back to back Tie-Breakers and take his place in the next Round.

The mental edge has to be with Reilly Opelka who will also have the home crowd behind him as he looks to earn a maiden Quarter Final appearance in any Grand Slam tournament. He reached the Final in Toronto after beating Lloyd Harris, but over the course of the last twelve months there has been a real edge towards Harris with the numbers he has produced on the hard courts compared with Reilly Opelka over the last twelve months.

Both are capable of strong serving, but Lloyd Harris has been the one who has found more out of his return game compared with Reilly Opelka and I think he can win this one as the underdog.

Reilly Opelka has been pretty steady with his performances so far at the US Open, but Lloyd Harris has impressed in the last two Rounds with strong straight sets wins behind him. He has been winning more points on the return of serve and I do think he deserved to beat Opelka in Toronto too and Lloyd Harris can earn some revenge in this Fourth Round match.

The scoreboard pressure can be the biggest obstacle when facing players like Reilly Opelka and John Isner, but I think Lloyd Harris has a big enough serve to get into a position to win this match and I think he can be backed as the underdog to do that here.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Lloyd Harris @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Emma Raducanu - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Bianca Andreescu + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

US Open Update: 29-21, + 7.74 Units (100 Units Staked, + 7.74% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2019 (September 6th)

The final of the women's tournament has been set and we are now down to the final three days of the US Open.

On Friday we are going to have both men's Semi Finals which is a positive change from years ago when the two Semi Finals would be played on 'Super Saturday' and leave the second Finalist with little to chance of winning the tournament.

Now all Finalists will get a day of rest between matches which is key for the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal who are favourites to meet on Sunday, but both dealing with injuries at the moment too. I still think they both make it, but it does raise some intrigue around the two Semi Final matches taking place today.


The Tennis Picks went 2-0 yesterday and I have updated the totals for the tournament with four matches left to go. I would be very disappointed if this is not a winning event, but I want more than that and looking to end the event on a high.


Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 sets v Grigor Dimitrov: Two underdogs won in the Quarter Final to set up this Semi Final match at the US Open as Daniil Medvedev saw off Stan Wawrinka in four sets and Grigor Dimitrov bested Roger Federer in five sets.

They were contrasting wins as Medvedev battled through the pain to maintain his run of form on the hard courts since Wimbledon came to an end. There were times when it looked like the youngster might just wilt under that pain, but he battled through some difficult moments and took the chances when they came his way to earn his spot in the final four of the last Grand Slam of 2019.

On the other hand Grigor Dimitrov fought back from 2-1 down against Roger Federer and by the end he was comfortably pulling away from an injured opponent. It was the first time the Bulgarian had beaten a player he has long been compared with, and also continues a remarkable run considering how poorly Dimitrov had been playing in the lead up to the US Open.

He has to be confident now and if there hadn't been a day of rest between the Quarter Final and Semi Final I would have made Dimitrov a healthy favourite to win the match considering Medvedev's physical issues. However the schedule might just give the Russian every chance as he doesn't just have one day, but two days rest to at least put himself in the best physical shape possible to reach a maiden Grand Slam Final.

Both players will be dealing with that pressure, but I do think Medvedev may feel he has less to lose overall as he is going to have a few more chances to get to a Grand Slam Final considering his development. For Grigor Dimitov I think it is very clear that he won't ever have a better chance of not only playing in a Slam Final, but actually winning one, something I truly believed had passed him by a couple of years ago.

There is no doubt in my mind who the superior player going to the court is- the only issue is how much Daniil Medvedev has left and whether the two days are enough to at least get him back to 80% of his capabilities on the court. I can't imagine he is going to be anything near 100%, but Medvedev is a smart player and has shown he can know when to push and when to take a step off in order to give himself the best chance of winning a match.

Despite the injury that Daniil Medvedev is clearly dealing with, he has actually been playing at a consistently higher level than Dimitrov at the US Open and I do think it is critical he has two days between matches. When these two met on the hard courts in Washington two years ago, Medvedev hammered Dimitrov but I expect the physical issues means this is a little tighter and the Bulgarian will have some chances.

Ultimately I maintain that his return is going to be the letdown for him at some point in this tournament and Daniil Medvedev is serving well enough to expose that here. The younger player is also the superior returner and I expect him to pose Dimitrov a few problems, especially when you consider he has created at least seven break points in each of his five matches in the tournament.

Danill Medvedev has broken in 30% of return games at Flushing Meadows in 2019, while Grigor Dimitrov has done the same in 26% of return games played, which isn't a big difference, but the latter has seen his return numbers decline in each passing Round. He was also boosted by Roger Federer's injury seeing him fall away in the final two sets of their Quarter Final and I do think Daniil Medvedev is going to have the edge.

I have to give credit to Dimitrov for the way he has been serving though and he will need a huge day in that department to earn the upset. It is possible if Medvedev's body breaks down, but I think the Bulgarian is going to need something like that to happen if he is going to win this match.

My feeling is that if this goes beyond four sets that Dimitrov will be a big favourite to progress, but Medvedev has shown he can find the right moments to really step in and I think the additional day of rest helps the youngster recover just enough to win this one in three or four sets.


Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v Matteo Berrettini: My immediate reaction to this spread is that it is a lot of games to give away against someone who is serving like a monster, but the highlight reel doesn't say everything about the level of performance of any player.

I like Matteo Berrettini and I have a lot of time for players who go for their huge shots and can hit more often than not. I also think the Italian is very keen to work at his game to improve and again I have nothing but respect for someone like that and he deserves his impending place in the top 15 of the World Rankings.

However I don't think it is harsh to say that Berrettini is pretty one-dimensional on the court. He wants to hit the big serve and follow it up with a huge forehand, but the backhand is average at best and this is a player who can defend well, but is most certainly not half as dangerous when on the move as when he can stand on the baseline and hit the huge forehand time after time.

Gael Monfils' tactics from being a set and a break up were pretty dire and I am convinced that an 18 time Grand Slam Champion like Rafael Nadal is not going to make the same mistakes as the Frenchman. I expect to see Nadal play this match as he would against someone like Roger Federer a few years ago, namely that he will look to target the backhand of Berrettini over and over again until he opens up the court and can hit the Italian's forehand while keeping him on the run.

My one concern has to be the tightness Nadal felt in his forearm in the Quarter Final win over Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and I do wonder if that has just meant the serve is not as effective as it can be. Rafael Nadal's numbers behind serve have declined in each of his last three matches, but at least he has the benefit of facing an opponent whose return is not amongst the best on the Tour.

For Matteo Berrettini things are very simple- he has to find a high percentage of first serves and play first strike tennis whenever he gets the chance. That is the only way he will be able to dictate points and perhaps have an opportunity for the upset as any rallies that develop into five or more shots will begin to favour his opponent.

He can do that and the Italian has nothing to lose, while he should have learnt a lot from his heavy defeat to Roger Federer at Wimbledon a couple of months ago. That came off the back of a long five set win and the same is happening here which means I do have to wonder how much is left in the tank for Matteo Berrettini.

I think that fatigue is a real concern for Berrettini in this match and I do think Rafael Nadal will make enough balls back in play to put the serve under pressure. A really tired Gael Monfils created fifteen break points in the last Round and that is the third time in this tournament that Matteo Berrettini has given up at least ten break points in a match.

The Nadal return is working in good order and I think he will know what kind of opportunity he has in front of him to move to within one Grand Slam of Roger Federer. I don't think the Spaniard will be giving that up and I will look for him to wear down Matteo Berrettini and eventually pull clear for a strong win on the scoreboard, although I also think the Italian is going to be a player who will be able to maintain his standards in the years ahead much better than Marco Cecchinato who reached the Semi Final at the French Open eighteen months ago.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 25-17, + 7.38 Units (84 Units Staked, + 8.79% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2018 (September 6th)

The women's Semi Finals take centre stage at the US Open on Thursday as the home fans will be looking to back the last two remaining Americans in the draw and look for another all-US Final like they had last year.

It could have been better if defending Champion Sloane Stephens took her early break point chances in her eventual Quarter Final defeat to Anastasija Sevastova. It is now up to the Latvian to try and take down the best American player of all time when she takes on Serena Williams on Thursday, while the second Semi Final features two younger players looking to win a maiden Grand Slam title.


The last couple of days have not been the best for the Tennis Picks and I am hoping for a better return in the final four days at the US Open. The next four days will be the last Tennis Picks until the middle of the month when the WTA Tour moves to Asia and the ATP Tour hits a couple of indoor spots before heading east for some big events in the lead up to the World Tour Finals for both Tours.


Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Anastasija Sevastova: This is clearly a very big number considering the up and down nature of Serena Williams in 2018, but the American is in great form at the US Open and playing at a very high level.

She will have to drop off considerably from the standard she is setting if Anastasija Sevastova is going to have a realistic chance of beating her in this US Open Semi Final.

The problem for Sevastova is her serve is not anything like as reliable as the one Williams will bring to the court and I think the Latvian is going to be put under considerable pressure every time she has to serve. If the first serve is not producing too many easy points, I expect Serena Williams to feast on the second serve and so there will be plenty of pressure on Sevastova to break the Williams serve.

Very few players have looked capable of doing that this last ten days and the home support is only going to inspire Williams that much more. As long as Williams continues serving at the level she has been producing throughout the US Open, I think she will be too good for Sevastova and can find around four breaks of serve which should be enough to cover a big number.


Madison Keys - 1.5 games v Naomi Osaka: It has been strange to hear the US Open claim their decision to slow down the courts in New York has been to aid the American players. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me when you think this time last year we had four American women players in the Semi Final in New York, but Madison Keys was highlighted as one of the players who would benefit from the new speed of court and she has not disappointed.

Keys reached the Final at the US Open in 2017 and she struggled in that Final, but the experience should be very good for her. The American has been powering her way through the draw and she may get the better of what is expected to be a big hitting match.

Naomi Osaka won the title in Indian Wells and she looks set to fulfil the potential that so many believe she has. It may not come at this tournament, but Osaka looks a future Grand Slam winner in the making and the Japanese player won't be intimidated by the power that comes from the other side of the net.

The serve is going to be so important for both players in this one and their numbers are very close in 2018 on the hard courts which suggests a close match is in the offing. It is hard to separate them on the numbers, but Keys has won all three previous matches between the players and that mental edge may be the reasoning why Keys is able to edge out Osaka.

Both players have only dropped a single set in their march through to the Semi Final and I do think this will be a very intriguing match up. I narrowly give the edge to Keys and I think she will reach her second US Open Final and perhaps be involved in another all-American match with Keys looking for her experience to give a better account of herself in that Final.

MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

US Open Update: 23-20, + 3.34 Units (76 Units Staked, + 4.39% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 10 Picks 2017 (September 6th)

My first experience of the US Open live and in person was absolutely special and aided by two magnificent women's matches featuring home players which ignited the atmosphere on Arthur Ashe Stadium.

It's not quite over for me as I have got the opportunity to return to Flushing Meadows on Wednesday as I was desperate to get the chance to see Rafael Nadal compete this year. Either on Sunday or Monday in the days ahead, I will put up a longer blog with a few pictures I took from around the grounds, but I would definitely highly recommend to anyone that visiting the US Open is well worth the time.


The final four Quarter Final matches are scheduled for Wednesday and my picks are below.


Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v Andrey Rublev: There is so much expectation on the shoulders of Andrey Rublev who is one of the up and coming stars on the ATP Tour. He hasn't received the same sort of attention as the likes of Nick Kyrgios and Alexander Zverev as far as the casual fans are concerned because Rublev had not had a huge breakthrough tournament like the one he has been enjoying at the US Open.

The wins over Grigor Dimitrov and David Goffin have to be completely respected, but I think both of those players are not of the same level and intensity that Rafael Nadal will bring to the court. Dimitrov was really poor in his loss to Rublev, while Goffin has not looked the same player since his fall at the French Open which forced him to miss Wimbledon with an injury, but those charges can't be levelled at Rafael Nadal.

The Spaniard plays every point like his life depends on it and it is rare to see him lacking fire in matches even when he is not playing his best tennis. That is important in this match and I think it is going to help him cover what looks a big handicap for a Quarter Final of any Grand Slam.

My reasoning is that Rublev has overachieved so far in this tournament and his numbers are going to be tested to the extremes by Nadal. Rublev was also convincingly beaten by Ernests Gulbis and Hyeon Chung in tournaments prior to the US Open and his numbers against top 20 Ranked players prior to the US Open were nothing to write home about.

Some will say Rublev's two wins over top 20 players in this tournament, the first in his career, may have changed that, but I don't really agree with that. He was down a break against Dimitrov in both the first and second set but the Bulgarian did not playing anything near the standard he should have done at those times and I am not sure Rublev gets away with that against Nadal.

Despite some slow starts to matches this week, Nadal has won all four matches so far at the US Open by a margin of at least nine games each time. Credit has to be given to Rublev for this surprising run, but I expect that to come to an end here and Nadal's intensity likely to wear him down in a 7-5, 6-3, 6-2 win.


Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: It is hard to forget the 2009 US Open men's Final which may be the best Final I have watched at this tournament. On that day Juan Martin Del Potro, one of my favourite players on the Tour, was able to get the better of Roger Federer although the head to head has been dominated by the latter for much of their careers.

Things have changed since 2009 with the wrist injury suffered by Del Potro taking away some of the dangerous groundstrokes he used to win the title here. However he is just glad to be back playing tennis at this level, although Del Potro has also been dealing with a virus this week.

In some ways he may be a little fortunate to be in this Quarter Final after going 2-0 down in sets in the Fourth Round against Dominic Thiem and also saving two match points before winning that match in five sets. While that will give Del Potro plenty of confidence, the level of competition definitely moves up a couple of gears in this Quarter Final with an improving Roger Federer in front of him.

There have been questions about Federer's health in the lead up to the US Open and his opening two matches at the tournament suggested there were some limitations in his game. However Federer has looked much stronger the last couple of matches and has admitted that he is feeling much stronger now than he was ten days ago.

That is important for him as he takes on someone who can take the racquet out of his hands. However the backhand wing has become a real vulnerable area for Del Potro and he will need to serve at his very best to remain competitive as far as I am concerned. He can do that on his day, but it is a big ask for Del Potro who was beaten routinely by Federer when they met for the first time in four years at the Miami Masters back in March.

Federer should prove to be too good again with the improving performances he is producing and I am looking for him to do enough to win and cover this number of games.


Karolina Pliskova-Coco Vandeweghe over 22.5 games: There is little doubt that there is likely to be plenty of big hitting off the serve and the groundstrokes when Karolina Pliskova and Coco Vandeweghe meet in the first of the women's Quarter Final matches to be played on Wednesday. The conditions are not ideal with the wind picking up in New York City, but there is every chance the roof is required today which is only going to make it 'easier' for these two players to look to dominate behind the serve.

The serve is going to be a huge weapon for both players in this one and I have to say the player who is able to produce as close to their best from that shot is likely to deliver the win.

Both players should be full of confidence after impressing in the Fourth Round and both have had to show their mettle to get through a couple of three setters. Karolina Pliskova has even saved match points as the World Number 1 looks to continue her run at the US Open where she reached the Final in 2016, but she will also have to deal with the crowd who should be fully behind the American Vandeweghe.

I am leaning towards Pliskova as the winner because I do think she can be the more consistent player of the two. There have been are times when Vandeweghe can put in a seriously sub-par performances which can make it hard to trust her, but she is the underdog in this one and I think that may ease some of the pressure she has to be feeling in a big match in her career.

Overall it does feel like this could be a close match and this is another that is likely to be dominated by the two serves. That could mean even a long two set match could see the total games surpassed like it was in Coco Vandeweghe's last match against Lucie Safarova, while there is every chance the tension of the match could see a couple of swings that produces yet another women's match needing a deciding set.

The women's draw has been fantastic in the last few days and I think this match may add to that. I will look for at least a 7-6, 6-4 result to come out of this one, but don't be surprised if we see three sets in this latest Quarter Final.


Madison Keys v Kaia Kanepi Pick in the 'MY PICKS' section.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova-Coco Vandeweghe Over 22.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Madison Keys-Kaia Kanepi Under 19.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

US Open Tennis Day 9 Picks 2016 (September 6th)

We have reached the Quarter Final stage of the US Open which means that it is one court tennis from now on through to the Final for the Singles competitors.

With the roof fixed over Arthur Ashe Court, it means there will be no real delays and that means we will be getting the Sunday finish. Who will be competing in the Finals this weekend is yet to be decided, but Serena Williams made it clear she is ready with the way she has breezed through the draw so far.

I can't believe she has only faced a single break point all week at the US Open as she looks to win the final two Grand Slam events of 2016 and surpass Steffi Graf on the all time list at the same time. Right now I am finding it tough to imagine anyone beating Serena Williams with the way she is playing, but she has also not had the really difficult, testing match that Serena usually faces in the course of seven matches in the Grand Slam matches.

The men's draw still looks more open to me with some of the big names on the Tour in the Quarter Final even though both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are missing. It is going to be fun to see how that draw pans out in the coming days over the last seven matches.


Angelique Kerber - 5.5 games v Roberta Vinci: I had to really think about this match and how I think it would go because I respect how well Roberta Vinci has played here this week especially after reaching the Final in Flushing Meadows in 2015. The Italian has enjoyed plenty of successful runs at the US Open and will be confident she can beat anyone here when looking back at beating Serena Williams.

However I am leaning towards Angelique Kerber having a little too much in this Quarter Final and eventually wearing down Vinci and being able to cover this big number on the handicap.

As well as Vinci has played, Kerber has arguably the best win when seeing off Petra Kvitova in straight sets. This will be the toughest match Vinci would have faced this week and she has to find a way to protect a limited backhand which is going into the Kerber forehand and I am not sure she can do that for long enough to stick with the German.

Neither player possesses the biggest of serves, but I think Kerber's tactics will be to go into the backhand as often as possible where she is not likely to be hit by a huge number of winners. Having that wing to attack to take control of rallies and start dictating points will give the potential World Number 1 the chance to come through with a 75, 62 kind of win.


Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 games v Anastasija Sevastova: The rumours continue to circulate that Caroline Wozniacki is on the verge of retiring from tennis and the feeling is that it is allowing her to play with the freedom of mind she wouldn't have had in past Grand Slam events. Failing to win a Grand Slam doesn't make it a bad career, but Wozniacki is one of the poorer World Number 1 players in recent times although this has looked a very good week for her so far.

After battling through the First Round, Wozniacki has looked very good in the last three Rounds to move into this Quarter Final. There is a real opportunity for Wozniacki to make it through to the US Open Final, but the headlines are not just going to be dominated by the former World Number 1.

While her future looks to be bringing a retirement, Anastasija Sevastova has returned to the Tour from an enforced retirement and is enjoying a stellar tournament. Beating top 20 players like Garbine Muguruza and Johanna Konta will have given Sevastova plenty of confidence, although dealing with a first Grand Slam Quarter Final is never easy mentally.

The Sevastova run has been surprisingly considering her lack of form on the main Tour in hard court matches prior to the US Open. She will need to control her unforced errors against an opponent that will run all day to make every ball back in play but I can see a situation where both players have plenty of break points, but Wozniacki uses all of her experience to come through 63, 64 and move onto the Semi Final.


Gael Monfils - 6.5 games v Lucas Pouille: One of the best matches at the US Open was the Lucas Pouille five set win over Rafael Nadal, but the challenges keep coming as he faces compatriot Gael Monfils in the Quarter Final. It is arguable that only Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will be feeling more confident of their chances of winning the US Open than Monfils and I am looking for him to cover a big number in this Quarter Final.

That is no disrespect to Pouille, but I am not sure how he can recover from playing three consecutive five set matches. He is a shot-maker, but Monfils is a fine athlete who will get plenty of balls back in play and I also think Monfils possesses the more consistent serve.

At some point you have to think all of the tennis that Pouille has played will come back to haunt him. It happened at Wimbledon where Pouille had big wins over Juan Martin Del Potro and Bernard Tomic in consecutive Rounds before tiredness set in against Tomas Berdych in the Quarter Final.

The same might happen in this Quarter Final as Monfils has freshness on his side and I think he will start frustrating Pouille as this match goes on. The Pouille serve can be attacked and I will look for Monfils to wear him down in a 75, 64, 63 win.


Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: This has to be the strangest run in a Grand Slam for Novak Djokovic through his career with only two completed wins to reach the Quarter Final. Some may think he is undercooked, but I think Djokovic would have welcomed the rest and he didn't look rusty when dismissing Kyle Edmund as easily as he did.

This time Djokovic can't rely on an inexperienced opponent to make a slow start as Edmund did in the Fourth Round because the World Number 1 is taking on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. This is a player that can compete with the very best players on Tour when bringing his best to the court, although I do think Tsonga will need to be better than he was in his win over Jack Sock.

There wasn't much between Sock and Tsonga through the first three sets and someone like Djokovic is a better player who can get plenty of serves back in play. The issue about backing Djokovic is trying to figure out how the arm and elbow is feeling as that has weakened the serve and it is an area that Tsonga has to try and target especially when he is seeing second serves.

However the glaring weakness on the backhand wing means Djokovic should be able to neutralise rallies by going into that wing even though he isn't feeling at 100%. I just haven't been as impressed with Tsonga as the scores suggest I should be because he has been winning the big points but that is not sustainable when giving up as many opportunities on the serve and now taking on one of the best returning players of all time.

They did have a really close match at Indian Wells which was decided 7-6, 7-6 in favour of Djokovic. However it was only missed opportunities that didn't make life easier for Djokovic and I am looking for him to come through with a 76, 63, 63 win in this one.

MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

US Open Update: 32-33, + 4.58 Units (122 Units Staked, + 3.75% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2016 (September 1-6)

I am not a fan of the international breaks, especially as it feels this one has come so soon after the Premier League has gotten back underway. However at least the August friendlies have been removed from the calendar and there is plenty of top football to come in September with the European competitions beginning as well as many big games in the Premier League as the Manchester derby will be opening next weekend's slate.

I was thinking of creating two threads for the World Cup Qualifiers taking place this week, but have decided to put them in one as there is only a single Round of fixtures from the UEFA Qualifiers. We do have two Rounds in South America taking place over the next few days, but I will keep this post as the 'Featured Post' on the site through Thursday games and will then place it back there on Sunday once Week 1 of the College Football season is virtually completed by Saturday evening.


One poor week in August cost me the chance of a winning record in the month, but I did make a dent in the numbers in the final week of domestic football of the month.A bit more luck would have seen a much bigger hit on those numbers, but it is far better than the last couple of years when I've been almost 20 Units down by the end of August before getting things turned around.

September has usually been more positive, but last season was a struggle through to December and I am looking to avoid that fate this time around.


Colombia v Venezuela Pick: This has been a fixture that Colombia have struggled with in recent matches against Venezuela, but they have a strong home record and deserve to be favourites to win the match.

The last meeting in Colombia was back in 2011 and I do think recent form has put Colombia in a much better place when heading into this fixture. They have been strong at home in World Cup Qualifiers and a lot of their recent wins have come by a couple of goals.

As well as Venezuela have done in the Copa America, they have lost 5 of 6 Qualifiers already and this looks a long shot to break their duck and reach a World Cup Finals for the first time. Venezuela have conceded at least twice in 5 of their last 6 away Qualifiers and that is going to put them under pressure to score the goals to earn points on their travels.

As poor as Colombia's recent games against Venezuela have been, I think they can earn a rare victory against the weakest team in South America and I will back them to win this by a couple of goals.


Ecuador v Brazil Pick: The start made by Ecuador to the World Cup Qualifiers meant they had begun to think about automatic Qualification to the Finals in Russia despite a loaded Group containing World Cup regulars in Uruguay, Argentina and Brazil. However they have had a blip in their last 2 Qualifiers and will be looking to get back to winning ways in the next few days.

This might not be the perfect time to face Brazil who are coming in off the high of winning the Olympic Gold Medal for the first time in their history. However it should be noted that this Brazil team is not as strong as some of the others they have had and those stronger teams did not have the best record in World Cup Qualifiers in Ecuador.

Only a controversial decision from the officials prevented Ecuador from beating Brazil at the Copa America this summer, but that does mean Ecuador still have a poor recent record against them. Failing to win their last 2 Qualifiers suggests the team might just have been caught looking ahead far too early and I am not sure they can win this World Cup Qualifier.

On the other hand, I can't see Brazil winning in Ecuador for the first time in the World Cup Qualifiers either and so having a small interest in the draw looks the call. That is a result that won't disappoint either team too much and looks the most likely outcome from this fixture.


Argentina v Uruguay Pick: Argentina versus Uruguay is one of the fiercest rivalries in South America and both teams will be desperate to earn their fans bragging rights. It is a more meaningful game for Argentina who are trailing Uruguay in the World Cup Qualifier standings, but this has all the makings of a really tight and competitive fixture.

Argentina might have won their last 4 home Qualifiers against Uruguay, but this current Group has seen them struggle for goals despite the healthy array of talent at their disposal. This is also the first game for many of the senior players since the Copa America disappointment and I am also interested to see how the fans react to the returning Lionel Messi who has reversed an international retirement in the last few weeks.

They are facing a very good attacking line up from Uruguay too with both Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani capable of breaching the best defences. That threat makes Uruguay a big danger, but they haven't travelled well in recent Qualifiers and I think I am just edging towards Argentina.

However I think the home team are plenty short and I am not sure they are going to win by the margin the layers believe. Games between Argentina and Uruguay do tend to be tight and I wouldn't be surprised if this is decided by a single goal margin.

I will have a small interest on Argentina winning this by a one goal margin at a big price in the first of two World Cup Qualifiers they play over the next few days.


Paraguay v Chile Pick: There was some real pressure building on Juan Antonio Pizzi as manager of Chile as many felt he was underachieving with the squad at his disposal. That is no longer the case as he guided Chile to another Copa America title this past summer and Chile's counter attacking style makes them a very dangerous away team to face.

I am not sure how much Paraguay will want to come onto Chile, a team that has beaten them in 6 of their last 8 games, but they have to know they need to earn as many points at home if they are going to Qualify for the next World Cup Finals. That means the onus is on Paraguay to get forward knowing they have to face the best South American competition away from home over the next thirteen months.

This should make this World Cup Qualifier an entertaining game for the neutrals and Chile have been involved in plenty of high-scoring games already in the Group. Chile are the joint highest scorers after six games, but only the bottom three nations have conceded more and their last 5 away World Cup Qualifiers have all featured at least three goals shared out.

6 of the last 7 Paraguay home World Cup Qualifiers have reached that mark too while 3 of the last 4 fixtures between these nations have ended the same way. Backing goals in this Qualifier looks like it could give us a run and at odds against it has to be worth looking for at least three goals shared out.


Denmark v Armenia Pick: The big news for Armenia, and Manchester United, was the knock suffered by Henrikh Mkhitaryan which means the Armenian Captain will miss this first World Cup Qualifier. This does look an open Group though where Armenia will think they can make some noise as Poland, Romania and Denmark are the top three teams expected to reach the World Cup Finals in Russia in two years time.

Two of those nations did play at Euro 2016, but Denmark were not one of those thanks to some surprisingly poor performances in the Qualifying Group. This side is not as strong as those in the past, but Mkhitaryan being ruled out does mean Denmark should be opening up with three points in the Qualifiers.

Like many international teams, Armenia have become harder to beat on their travels as they make sure they are defending properly and looking to catch teams on the break. Without their Captain it is difficult to see where Armenia will turn to when it comes to creating chances, but they have only lost 2 of 15 away Qualifiers by more than a single goal margin.

I'd be surprised if Denmark are able to do that with plenty of tight games at home and they did have to come from a goal behind to beat Armenia in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers. They are not the team of old that might have been too good for Qualifiers like this, but I think Denmark will win although will back them to do that by the smallest of margins.


Lithuania v Slovenia Pick: In a Group that contains Slovakia and England, who both played in the Euro 2016 Finals, Slovenia are looking to make some noise. However they might know exactly what they are capable of doing after just a single World Cup Qualifier when they visit Lithuania and anything other than the three points will be seen as a blow to their chances of finishing in the top two places in the section.

They did beat Lithuania in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers here, but could only earn a draw at home which is a bit of a concern. However I think Slovenia are going to be able to make it back to back wins here who have lost half of their last 10 home Qualifiers.

It was the away form which cost Slovenia a chance of making it through to France this summer as they were beaten in England, Switzerland and then Ukraine in the Play Offs. They did lead 0-2 at Switzerland before going down to a 3-2 defeat which effectively cost them a top two finish but they can get off a positive start in this Group having won 4 of their last 10 away Qualifiers and usually against the teams they are expected to beat.

I imagine it will be a tight game, but all the money has come in for Slovenia and I think they can make that count with a narrow win here.


Slovakia v England Pick: Sam Allardyce might not have been the first choice for many, but I think England have appointed a manager who will use the strengths of the squad. For many years England have entered tournaments believing they are better than many nations and can outplay them, but Allardyce will give England a solid base and make them hard to beat which is the best way for this nation to start winning games in major tournaments again.

The Qualifiers look like they could give Allardyce a few problems to deal with as England play Slovakia, Slovenia and Scotland. Two of those teams have reached major international tournaments in recent years, while Scotland will always want to get the better of the Auld Enemy.

Getting off to a good start in the Group is important for England who are under pressure after a really disappointing end to Euro 2016 when stunned by Iceland. They did play Slovakia in the Group at the Finals which ended in a draw, but England had more of the play in that one and they will have a stronger eleven than the one Roy Hodgson used and was criticised for.

Slovakia can't be underestimated having made the Euro 2016 Finals while they did beat Spain here and draw with Ukraine in the Qualifiers. There is some attacking talent here led by Marek Hamsik, but I do give England the edge.

However I am not expecting England to win this one easily at what has been a tough venue to visit for teams. Even if England are leading, Sam Allardyce is unlikely to want his team to push too many men forward looking for a killer goal, but instead make sure gaps at the backs are filled in and England can defend out the lead.

I was tempted by England at odds against, but I think they are more likely to simply win by a one goal margin if they get into that position. Therefore I will back England to win by that margin as Allardyce makes a positive start to his new career as manager of the national team.


Malta v Scotland Pick: There have been plenty of heartbreaking ways Scotland have either exited major international tournaments or missed out on the Finals, but the 1-0 defeat to Georgia in the last set of Qualifiers would have hurt. If Scotland had won in Georgia like the three sides that finished above them had done, they would have made the Play Offs rather than the Republic of Ireland.

This Group doesn't look as difficult as the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group did on paper, but the three teams Seeded above Scotland have all reached major international tournaments in recent years. That experience means Scotland are the fourth favourites in the section even if the layers believe they have a better chance than Slovenia.

The key for Scotland is getting off to a strong start as they play Malta and Lithuania before the trip to Slovakia. Win both of those and a draw in Slovakia would not be a bad result, but drop points and Scotland are already playing catch up in a Group where the three teams Seeded above them will be expecting to win all four games against Malta and Lithuania.

Malta might not be the big international name, but they can be tough to beat and they will make life difficult for Scotland. Croatia and Italy will back up those claims having secured narrow 0-1 wins at Malta in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers and while Malta have lost 9 of their last 10 Qualifiers at home, 6 of those have come by a single goal margin.

With Scotland struggling away from home in the Qualifiers of recent years and losing in Georgia, I can't imagine them winning this one with any sense of comfort. However I do believe Scotland will earn a narrow win here and I will back them to win this one by a single goal margin.


Georgia v Austria Pick: There is no doubting how disappointing Austria were at the Euro 2016 tournament having been given the big build heading into that tournament. Now we have two ways in which Austria can go and that is either learn from their experiences and come back stronger in the World Cup in Russia or fall back to the pack in a difficult Qualifying Group and once again miss out.

I do think we will learn more about where Austria are heading after just this single Qualifier when they head to Georgia. As much as Georgia impressed in their 0-1 friendly win in Spain in June, this is a nation that has lost 7 of their last 11 home Qualifiers and who are not likely to challenge for a World Cup berth from the section.

There are much bigger tests ahead for Austria when they face Serbia, Wales and the Republic of Ireland in this Group, but they can restore some confidence by winning here. Austria won all 5 away Qualifiers in the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group including wins in Russia, Montenegro and Sweden and that should suggest they are good enough to win here in Georgia.

The home team will make life difficult for them and this will be a tight match, but I think Austria can earn the three points and begin restoring a shattered reputation.


Belarus v France Pick: Having the chance to win a major international tournament on home soil is a once in a generation moment for players so it is no surprise that France will have been disappointed they fell short in the Final. They had the better chances in the defeat to Portugal, but this is still a young squad and the experiences could see them win a bigger prize in two years time.

France are a clear favourite in this Qualifying Group despite the 'big name' nations Sweden and Netherlands also taking part. I think both of those nations are in a transitional period of their history and France will be expected to win the Group.

They can't drop silly points though as they look to make a statement that the Euro 2016 Final defeat will not cost them in this World Cup Qualifying Group. The 1-3 win in Italy in a friendly last week will have given France confidence, but they won't underestimate Belarus who took four points off of them in the Euro 2012 Qualifiers.

It was France who won both games handily when they were in the same 2014 World Cup Qualifying Group though and Belarus have slipped from the level they were producing back in 2011. Spain might only have beaten them 0-1 here in the last Qualifying campaign, but both Ukraine and Slovakia were comfortable winners in Belarus and I think France have too many goals to be contained by them.

I can see France needing time to work out how to break down Belarus, but that should lead to more chances being created late on as Belarus perhaps chase an equaliser. France won 5 of their last 7 away friendly games and have scored at least twice in 4 of those while hitting three goals 3 times.

After a bit of battle, I look for the France quality to shine through as they put three points on the board before facing tougher tests in Bulgaria and Netherlands next month. I will back the French to win this one while covering the Asian Handicap.


Bosnia and Herzegovina v Estonia Pick: It was a slow start to the Euro 2016 Qualifiers which cost Bosnia and Herzegovina an automatic place at the Finals, but they would have still expected to beat the Republic of Ireland in the Play Off Round. They can't afford a slow start to this Group if Bosnia and Herzegovina want to make it to back to back World Cup Finals and challenge Belgium for an automatic place in Russia rather than going back to the Play Offs where they have suffered enough heartache.

This does represent a very good chance to get off to a positive start against an Estonia team who have lost 8 of their last 10 away Qualifiers. Estonia have picked up a grand total of 17 points in their last two Qualifying Groups and are not expected to challenge for a top two place in the Group, but Bosnia and Herzegovina have to make sure they pick up the three points to give them a boost in confidence.

In all honesty Bosnia and Herzegovina have been strong at home in recent years when it comes to the Qualifiers and they have won 11 of their last 16 home Qualifiers. 9 of those 11 wins have come by at least two goals and Estonia have lost 6 of their 8 away Qualifier defeats by that same margin.

If Bosnia and Herzegovina can come out focused, I will expect them to win this one by a couple of goals and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to do that.


Cyprus v Belgium Pick: There are one or two managers in football that I can't understand seem to land on their feet despite poor successes which are subsequently overrated. One of those is Roberto Martinez, who I simply don't rate very highly at all.

How has Martinez managed to wangle his way into the Belgium national job after failing at Everton and relegating Wigan Athletic in his final season at the helm there?? I am guessing Martinez is one of those characters with all the buzzwords that impress those who make the decisions to appoint managers and they clearly buy the BS he is selling.

Remember he went in to Bill Kenwright's office at Everton and promised to take The Toffees into the Champions League and it was clearly lapped up by the Chairman. I wonder if Martinez has promised to take Belgium to World Cup and European Championship glory in the next four years, although I fear this appointment may cost a solid squad any real chance of success.

I could be wrong, but the fans were clearly unimpressed when booing off Belgium after a 0-2 home loss to Spain in a friendly last week. That makes this a really important game for Belgium as they begin the World Cup Qualifiers in a really weak looking section where Greece are the third Seed despite finishing below the Faroe Islands in the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group.

With the talent Belgium have in the forward areas, you have to think they will continue to score goals, but I do fear that the lack of defensive work Martinez does will cost them. Marc Wilmots was accused of playing his Belgium team with the handbrake on and you have to think Martinez will loosen that, but coming up the best sides might be when he is found out.

There aren't many of those in this Group and facing a Cyprus side who have lost 6 of 10 home Qualifiers is a good place to start. I am sure the home team will give Belgium some awkward moments, but this is a Cyprus team that has failed to score against Wales, Belgium, Albania, Switzerland and Slovenia in the last two Qualifying campaigns in home games.

Eventually someone should provide the magic touch for Belgium to score at least once in this one and that might be enough to win the game. While Belgium might be a team I oppose in two years in Russia, I will back them this week to win their first World Cup Qualifier thanks to a rare Martinez clean sheet at the other end.


Faroe Islands v Hungary Pick: There is a saying that you will hear plenty of times if you catch any of the international football on television this week and that is that there are 'no easy games' any more. That is true to an extent with the bigger nations perhaps not winning by the wide margins of yesteryear, but they are still usually too good for some of the smaller nations that make up the UEFA family.

The Faroe Islands have been one of those smaller nations forever and they are in the Group to simply try and surprise a couple of the bigger nations they face. One of those will be Hungary who made the Euro 2016 Finals, but I think it will be tough for the Faroe Islands to upset them.

They did play in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers and Faroe Islands dominated possession in their home game with Hungary. That will make them dangerous if they can do that again, although Hungary did win the shot count in the 0-1 victory and I can see a similar result in this one.

Hungary's last 7 away Qualifier wins have come with a clean sheet and they have won their last 4 by the same 0-1 scoreline. At odds against I think they can win to nil in this one against a Faroe Islands team who have failed to score in half of their last 8 home Qualifiers.


Uruguay v Paraguay Pick: Games in South America are very rarely straight-forward unless there are game changing incidents like red cards or penalties. The games involving Uruguay and Paraguay have been very competitive recently and there isn't much between these teams, but home advantage should be key for Uruguay.

So far it is the home form that is keeping Uruguay amongst the leading contenders in South America and a win this week will give them a little breathing room to those teams outside of the top five.

They won't have it easy agains Paraguay who have drawn the last 3 games with Uruguay by the same 1-1 scoreline. The win over Chile will have given Paraguay a boost in confidence, but 2 away wins from 15 Qualifiers is not a good run and both of those came against Venezuela.

Paraguay have also lost 7 of their last 11 away World Cup Qualifiers and I think Uruguay might just have enough in them to take home advantage and use that to earn them three points. It will likely come by the narrowest of margins and having a small interest in Uruguay winning by a single goal margin looks the call.


Venezuela v Argentina Pick: This might be a fixture that Argentina have dominated through their history, but no one of Venezuelan heritage will forget October 11th 2011 when their team not only avoided defeat for the first time against Argentina, but actually beat them 1-0 in the World Cup Qualifier.

Argentina might be missing both Lionel Messi and Sergio Aguero for this one and that does take away some significant attacking talent. Whether that is enough for Venezuela to take something from the game I am not so sure, but I also think they can make this a competitive match and give their fans something to cheer.

I can't imagine Argentina will risk Messi, who himself said he was not sure if he would be fit enough for this game, but this is a team that has won at Colombia and Chile already in the World Cup Qualifiers. That is impressive and they are playing a Venezuela team that have lost 3 in a row at home already in the Qualifiers and a nation that basically expects to be beaten by Argentina.

Only twice since October 2004 have Argentina won an away Qualifier by more than a single goal margin although Venezuela tend to be beaten with some relative comfort. The absence of the likes of Messi and Aguero might mean Argentina don't have the goals to win this by more than a single goal margin and I will have a small interest on that happening.


Brazil v Colombia Pick: All of the games in South America and the Qualifiers tend to be very close and you will rarely see teams win their games easily and cover big handicaps.

One of those nations that can tend to fly is Brazil with the attacking intent they usually show and they do have big wins over Peru and Venezuela in the Group. However they have failed to beat Uruguay and there are plenty of big games to come for Brazil at home which are going to test that attacking talent to the maximum.

The first of those coming to Brazil are Colombia and they are not a team that tends to lose heavily.

Colombia have lost 13 of their 35 away World Cup Qualifiers, but take away the losses to Uruguay and only 4 of those have come by more than a single goal margin  (3 defeats to Uruguay by more than a singe goal margin in that time). They have managed to earn draws in their last 2 World Cup Qualifiers in Brazil and I was tempted to back them to avoid defeat in this one too.

However I do feel this Brazil side might have earned plenty of confidence in recent weeks thanks to the success at the Olympic Games. The 0-3 win at Ecuador was a little flattering, but Brazil might have just enough to get past Colombia too and I will back them to win by the narrowest of margins. If Colombia are as wasteful in front of goal as they were against Venezuela then it will be difficult for them to make it 3 straight away Qualifiers in Brazil earning draws, and this game should be tight and competitive throughout.


Peru v Ecuador Pick: There are five South American World Cup Qualifiers in this round of games and Peru versus Ecuador is the last of those to kick off. However I also think it might produce the most goals with plenty on the line for both Peru and Ecuador in relation to the rest of the World Cup Qualifiers.

For Peru they are simply in a position where they need to win to have any chance of clawing back a big deficit to Brazil who are currently in 5th place. Anything other than a win and Peru will see their wait for another World Cup Finals appearance reach at least forty years.

The fast start by Ecuador where they won their first 4 World Cup Qualifiers has been forgotten as they have earned 1 point from their last 4 games. They need to arrest the slide which might see them move out of the top four at the end of this round of games and the pressure will be on Ecuador if that is the case.

Ecuador have made it through to the World Cup Finals in three of the last four editions so have some experience to call upon while they reached the Quarter Final in the Copa America this summer.

With the issues in both squads, there might be a fair few chances in this one. They shared out four goals in the Copa America match a couple of months ago and goals have been produced when Peru and Ecuador meet one another. 3 of the last 5 Peru home World Cup Qualifiers and 3 of the last 4 Ecuador away Qualifiers have seen at least three goals scored in those games and I will back that to happen at odds against.

MY PICKS: Colombia - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.77 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ecuador-Brazil Draw @ 3.25 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Argentina to Win by One Goal @ 3.50 William Hill (1 Unit)
Paraguay-Chile Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Denmark to Win by One Goal @ 3.60 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Slovenia @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
England to Win by One Goal @ 3.60 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Scotland to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 William Hill (1 Unit)
Austria @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
France - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bosnia and Herzegovina - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belgium Win to Nil @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Hungary Win to Nil @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Uruguay to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Argentina to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 William Hill (1 Unit)
Brazil to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Peru-Ecuador Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)