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Showing posts with label Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal. Show all posts

Sunday, 27 January 2019

Australian Open Tennis Day 14 Picks 2019- Men's Final (January 27th)

The Women's Final on Saturday was a really good watch and I have little doubt that the Men's Final to be played on Sunday is going to be the same when Novak Djokovic takes on Rafael Nadal.


Before I get onto that Final, I have to say all credit to Naomi Osaka for the way she was able to battle through the emotions of dropping the second set to win the title and back to back Grand Slam titles.

It is the first time since Wimbledon 2015 that a player on the WTA Tour has managed to win back to back Grand Slam titles when Serena Williams was able to do it, while Osaka became the first player since Jennifer Capriati in 2001 to win back to back Grand Slams for her first two major titles.

For me Naomi Osaka is the most deserving World Number 1 since Angelique Kerber hit that level in 2016 and I do think she is going to go into a number of tournaments amongst the favourites to win it. Ultimately the women's game still feels pretty open that no one should be a clear favourite, but Osaka's mental strength and pure talent will mean she should go close at Wimbledon and the US Open.

Petra Kvitova had a wonderful tournament too and she should be very proud of the tennis she put together. Even during her peak times Kvitova could be a little erratic with her play as she will always want to be attacking and finding the consistency to perform that kind of high risk tennis is never going to be easy.

If she can put some tournaments together to back up the Australian Open, I think Petra Kvitova may just go into Wimbledon as the player to beat while I would expect her to challenge the likes of Osaka at the US Open too.


We do have a couple of big hard court tournaments to come in the next two months, but the shift will soon be on to the clay courts and the build towards the French Open. The clay courts are still quite a specialised surface for players to produce their best so the likes of Kvitova and Osaka could be vulnerable on the clay where they have yet to play their best tennis.

It is something the layers don't always recognise immediately, but that is for another day and there are still hard court tournaments to come when I would expect the two Grand Slam Finalists to next be out on the court.


While we all were excited to see the new faces in the Men's Semi Finals a few days ago, in reality the Final that everyone would have wanted is waiting for us and I am looking forward to it.

I will have a short breakdown of the match below and how I feel this one will go in what has been a very strong start to the 2019 season for both players as they look to set a marker for the rest of the year.


Rafael Nadal v Novak Djokovic: The World Number 1 and the World Number 2 meeting in the first Grand Slam of the 2019 season suggests this could be another special year for both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal as long as they can remain healthy.

Last season they took home three of the four Grand Slam titles and I really don't think it would be a big surprise if these two didn't let anyone else get a look in during the 2019 season. Health will be a big test for both Djokovic and Nadal, but right now they are the clear one and two in the world and this should make for a very good Final.

Despite leading the way, Djokovic and Nadal only met twice in 2018 with the epic Semi Final win for the Serb at Wimbledon the big match that perhaps really gave him the belief that he can return to the very pinnacle of the men's game. He went on to win that title and the one at the US Open, but I would suggest that Rafael Nadal is playing at a higher level going into this Final.

Both players have produced some incredible serving numbers, while Novak Djokovic has the slight edge on the return, although those have been boosted by the last couple of Rounds. The Djokovic return is going to be a huge key to this match as Rafael Nadal faces him down with his new service motion which has generated a 97.5% hold record at the Australian Open and which has not been broken since the First Round.

It will be interesting to know what Nadal will do if the new serve is being put under pressure like Djokovic can do to the very best servers on the Tour. The Spaniard will have to stick to his game plan and make sure he doesn't lose heart, but the confidence is high and his hold percentage is a number of points higher than Djokovic's who has also been holding serve very well at over 90% for the tournament.

The Nadal return numbers are not quite as good as Djokovic's but they are far from poor and if there are lingering concerns about the back issue the World Number 1 had against Daniil Medvedev it could be a real problem for him.

You can't ignore the head to head on the hard courts which has seen Djokovic lead 18-7 against Nadal and he has won the last seven matches against him on this surface. In fact it is 14-0 in sets to Djokovic on the hard courts, although the last matches came in 2016 when the Serb was someway ahead of Nadal in levels of performance.

Things are much closer now and I do think Nadal may be playing the slightly better tennis over the last two weeks which could give him the edge. This is a court on which Novak Djokovic has had considerable success and the factors of the head to head on the hard courts and the returning numbers produced will see many stick with the World Number 1.

Prior to the tournament I thought Djokovic was the favourite to win his third Grand Slam in a row, but Rafael Nadal looks to be the one at a slightly higher peak going into the Final. Even factoring in those aspects that point towards Djokovic, I think Nadal is at a level that will be tough to top.

The last time Nadal beat Djokovic on the hard courts was in the US Open Final in 2013 and I think the Spaniard may just edge him out in another Grand Slam Final on this surface.

At critical times the Nadal serve may just hold up better than Djokovic's and I think he wins this Final.

This is one to enjoy though and so, while this is my selection, it will be a no unit pick as I sit with a morning cuppa and look forward to seeing the two best players in the world go at it hammer and tongs.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal @ 2.15 Bet365 (0 Units)

Australian Open 2019: 59-44, + 21.99 Units (203 Units Staked, + 10.83% Yield)

Monday, 11 November 2013

World Tour Finals- Rafael Nadal v Novak Djokovic Pick 2013 (November 11th)

So this is it... The final tournament of the season, not including the Davis Cup, is going to be concluded on Monday night and it is a fitting end to the 2013 campaign that the two best players in the world can continue their rivalry.

I know a lot of people are big Andy Murray fans, but Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are going to be the leading contenders to sweep the Grand Slam titles on offer going into 2014, as long as both can steer clear of injury, and this match could already be seen as laying down a marker for the coming season.

The off-season in tennis is a little under two months, but I don't think these two will be playing too many matches ahead of the first Grand Slam of 2014 at the Australian Open so the winner of this match will feel they have an edge going into that tournament. Melbourne Park has been Djokovic's best Grand Slam to date and he will likely go off as the favourite to win that event, but a win for Nadal in this Final may close that gap and have the Spaniard as the man to beat.


Novak Djokovic - 2.5 games v Rafael Nadal: The indoor hard courts are clearly not the favourite surface of Rafael Nadal, but he has made it through to the Final here in London for a second time and also has split two previous matches against Novak Djokovic at the event in the O2 Arena.

However, the edge has to be given to Djokovic in this match as he is the defending Champion here and has ended the season on a brilliant run of form with the real intention of setting out his stall for the 2014 season that will begin in a couple of months time.

It is Nadal that has been dominating this head to head over the last 18 months, winning 6 of 7 including the Final of the French Open 2012, the Semi Final at the same event in June and also the US Open Final back in September. This has all come about after losing 7 straight matches to Djokovic, but the Serb did turn the tables with a routine straight sets win over Nadal at the Shanghai Masters.

Both have played good tennis so far this week and I do anticipate this being a good Final to watch, but I think the court does give Djokovic the edge... I have noticed that Nadal's forehand has not reared up as much as normal and that shouldn't be a big issue for Djokovic, while I also feel the latter has been serving a little more effectively.

Djokovic's big edge may come from the second serve as I expect him to play similar to yesterday and really try and attack that serve and keep Nadal under pressure. With the way he has been returning, I would expect Djokovic to have success with that tactic and I feel he can get a measure of revenge for a couple of really big losses against Nadal earlier this season.


It will be close and it will be tense, but Djokovic should come through 63, 76 in my opinion, although there is a chance that Nadal can push this into three sets.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 7-7, + 7.16 Units (22 Units Staked, + 32.55% Yield)

Monday, 9 September 2013

US Open Men's Final Pick 2013- Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal (September 9th)

It was a fascinating Final between Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka yesterday and I am expecting no less from Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal in the men's Final which will take place on Monday afternoon.

Both players will have their supporters in this one and those that backed Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic at the start of the tournament would have a chance to lay off their units, although I am still of the belief that Nadal will come out on top in this one.


Whenever I have watched Rafael Nadal in the last two weeks, I have been impressed with his performances and I  have been reminded of the way he blitzed his way through the draw in 2010 when he won his sole US Open title. In that Final, Rafael Nadal took care of a tired Novak Djokovic in four sets and it will be interesting to see how the World Number 1 responds to his five set match against Stanislas Wawrinka on Saturday afternoon.

Wawrinka gave Djokovic almost everything he could handle and we saw a flat Djokovic come out in the Wimbledon Final off a similar rest period back in July- if he is lacking intensity in this one, he will be given a torrid time by someone like Nadal that will play every point hard and who will not give the Serb an easy way into the match.

Like in 2010, Nadal has looked very effective behind his serve and he is playing with an aggression that could break through the Djokovic defences in this one. The World Number 1 has lost a number of big matches since winning the Grand Slam at the Australian Open last January and that is making it hard for me to shake the belief that Nadal will prove too strong.

However, Djokovic is probably the best fighter on the Tour when things are going against him and he should really have beaten Nadal at the French Open earlier this season, but that loss coupled with the one in Montreal means the Spaniard has begun to get the better of this rivalry again.

The extra aggression that Nadal has shown, plus the protection of his own serve being stronger in the tournament means I have a feeling he will prove too good for Djokovic and win his second Grand Slam since returning to the Tour in February.

If Djokovic's backhand is working, it could be another close match between these two, but that shot has not been at its best in the tournament so far and unless there is a marked improvement in this one then it is hard to see the Serb come through. I hope we see another good Final between the two, but I believe it will be decided in four sets in favour of Rafael Nadal.


MY PICK: Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)

US Open Update: 29-39, - 11.22 Units (114 Units Staked, - 9.84% Yield)

Sunday, 10 June 2012

French Open Men's Final (June 10th)

It seems like the two week Grand Slam is going to end on a positive note after Maria Sharapova completed the win in the Women's tournament and it can get a lot better if Rafael Nadal can complete his seventh win at Roland Garros.

It won't be easy for Nadal as he comes up against Novak Djokovic for the fourth Grand Slam in a row having lost the previous three Slams to the World Number 1. However, none of those have come on the clay courts and Rafa has proven himself the king on this surface with some very impressive performances to reach this stage.

The Spaniard has also won two matches against Djokovic on the clay courts this season and I think he has found a little more aggression in his game to pressurise the Serb. He has found a way to deal with the backhand down the line that had been so effective for Djokovic in the 2011 season against Nadal, while I think he is also attacking the Djokovic serve with more success.

With the two wins I mentioned, Nadal has stopped a run of seven consecutive losses to Djokovic, with the previous three all coming in the Slam Finals and it is right that he is the favourite in this one. Therefore, I am going to leave my outright pick alone and hope it will send the profits soaring and make this a very profitable two weeks.


Tomorrow evening, I will recap the French Open tournament and complete the overall profit/loss for the season. I will then put up any outright picks from the up and coming tournaments on the grass courts that begin on Monday and any picks from the first matches that are to take place on June 11th.


FRENCH OPEN UPDATE: 22-23, + 3.36 Units (75 Units Staked)

Sunday, 29 January 2012

Australian Open Men's Final Live Updates

Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal Australian Open Final 2012


Novak Djokovic 1-0* Rafael Nadal
There was a slight chance for Rafael Nadal as he moved into a 15-30 lead on the Novak Djokovic serve, but the Serbian brings out some big groundstrokes to eventually hold to 30.

Novak Djokovic *1-1 Rafael Nadal
A very easy service game for Rafael Nadal, and it will be interesting how he can hold on to serve after struggling against Djokovic at the US Open (broken 12 times in 4 sets there).

It is a routine hold to love, with an ace to open the service game.

Novak Djokovic 2-1* Rafael Nadal
There is an error from Djokovic to open up his next service game, and then a wonderful shot from Nadal down the line to move into a 0-30 position.

A couple of big first serves draws the World Number 1 level, and then a great second serve moves Djokovic to game point.

Djokovic holds to 30 as the last 4 points are won within 2 shots or less.

Novak Djokovic *2-2 Rafael Nadal
Not sure if Nadal has a tactical plan to slice the ball back to the Djokovic backhand when the Serbian uses the shot down the line that has been so effective in recent meetings between the two? He has done it twice already, with success, in the opening exchanges.

Djokovic wins the first point on serve, but Nadal runs through the rest of the game with ease.

Novak Djokovic 2-3* Rafael Nadal
Djokovic wins his sixth point in a row on serve to move to 30-0, but a couple of strong Nadal returns brings the game to 30 all...

Best point of the match so far as Rafael Nadal brings up the first break point of the match as Nadal makes an exceptional return off a volley that eventually opens the court for him to pass- second serve but Nadal hits it WAY long.

There is definitely a more attacking element to the Nadal game so far and he earns another break point- the Serbian misses an easy put away with his patented backhand down the line and Nadal has the first break of the Final.

Novak Djokovic *2-4 Rafael Nadal
Djokovic was furious with himself at the end of the last game and it will be interesting to see what kind of reaction he has to that outward show of emotion.

A couple of longer rallies are both ended by Djokovic, one with an error and one with a pass and it's 30 all. An unfortunate net cord later and Djokovic has his first break point of the Final.

That is saved beautifully by Nadal with a nice first serve and a searing forehand down the line, a perfect one-two combination.

I am 100% convinced that Nadal is using the sliced backhand back to the Djokovic backhand to negate that shot down the line that helped the World Number 1 to 6 straight victories over the Spaniard. Far too many errors from Djokovic at the moment, and it does look like the longer rallies are being ended by him more often than not, with a winner or an error.

A couple of great returns from Djokovic extends the game and earns another break point- he gets to see another second serve, but makes an enormous error to pull the game back to deuce.

Longest game of the match so far as it keeps going back and forth and this looks like it could be the one to determine the set. Nadal has his third chance to put the game to bed, but another superbly constructed point from Djokovic to keep the game going a little longer.

A lot of respect for Nadal's serving at the moment, but he doesn't want to drop the first serve % down in this match. The Spaniard takes the game on his 4th game point.

Novak Djokovic 3-4* Rafael Nadal
Djokovic looks a little tetchy at the moment, a little frustrated... Some very strong match play from him in this game though and he also seems to be hitting the ball a little harder- it's a straight-forward hold of serve to 15.

Novak Djokovic *4-4 Rafael Nadal
This set is still within Djokovic's grasp despite being a break down- he wins the first point on the Nadal serve.

I have been impressed with the way Nadal has started this match, but I still have the feeling that the match is resting on Djokovic's racquet at the moment.

This is a big point as the game is sitting at 30 all- another disappointing return from Djokovic on a second serve as he fails to get it back in play.

After the start Nadal has made, he is struggling to really get a grip in the rallies that Djokovic is beginning to dictate more and more often... the end of another longer rally earns the Serbian a break point.

A lot of credit has to be given to Nadal for another big serve under pressure to give himself the upper hand and save that opportunity... The reprieve doesn't last long as another break point comes up- once again Nadal finds the effective lefty slider into the advantage court.

It definitely feels that Djokovic is the steadier of the two players when the rallies develop on an equal footing and he has a third break point... Another Nadal error this time and Djokovic is back on serve.

Novak Djokovic 5-4* Rafael Nadal
Now the World's best player has to back up that game... An error to start the game is not the best way to begin, before Nadal finally gets back to the form he displayed earlier in the set to move to 0-30.

Djokovic can kiss the top of the net cord that saves him from falling into a triple break point hole, Nadal VERY unfortunate there.

I have to give the Serb a lot of credit as he wins a couple of good points, taking advantage of the luck he was given in the third point of the game and winning the game to 30.

Novak Djokovic *5-5 Rafael Nadal
It has felt to me that there has been a shift of momentum since the 6th game of the match, even though Nadal won that game... Maybe it has something to do with Djokovic changing his shirt from Clark Kent to Superman?

This is an absolutely massive service game for Nadal, especially for his belief in terms of the match as he has thrown a fair bit at Djokovic in this set only to lose it would crush any belief may have.

Very impressive stuff from the Spaniard to open the game, but Djokovic almost rallies all the way back to deuce before Nadal puts away an impressive cross court forehand, one he has become famous for over his career.

Novak Djokovic 5-6* Rafael Nadal
At this stage of a tight set, a crucial set such as this is, the pressure shifts on to the other player after that hold from Nadal... The World Number 2 wins the opening point to up the ante too.

I might be wrong, but my feeling is that Djokovic is the better player here as he wins a couple of points to move ahead... He seems a little more assured in how he is playing, with Nadal perhaps questioning what he wants to do in points?

Huge point coming in terms of the set at 30 all, 5 all... Nadal doesn't question himself there with a huge forehand down the line to earn a break point- a huge miss from Djokovic off his backhand wing and Nadal will be serving for the set.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, *0-0 Rafael Nadal
This is probably a bigger set for Nadal than it is for Djokovic, but that doesn't mean the Serbian will hand it to him on a plate. I just think Nadal NEEDS to show himself that he can win this match, and he can only do it by securing a set he started off so brightly and one that he has had the advantage in twice already.

A beautiful point from Nadal and he brings up two set points- one of those is saved by Djokovic hammering a second serve for a straight winner.

Not sure I agree with the television directors making a couple of spectators look like dicks reading a paper just before the second set point? Anyway, Djokovic forces an error from Nadal and brings the game to deuce.

A ball just goes wide for Djokovic during a rally and that means a third set point for Rafa... The body serve does the damage again and that is the FIRST SET in the bag for the World Number 2.


Novak Djokovic 5-7, 1-0* Rafael Nadal
It's an important game for Djokovic just to settle the match down and he does manage to hold. A special shot on the second point of the game, but a slight lull from the end of the first set as he takes the game to 30... The calm before the storm I am sure in this set.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, *1-1 Rafael Nadal
Hmmmm a slightly tight looking second serve from Rafa to start the game catches the net cord on the way through... No respite as he throws in a double fault to open the game.

At 0-30, Nadal has another second serve that looks really slow, slow enough to catch Djokovic out that he cannot get it back in play... That is something the Serbian needs to take advantage of if he wants to get back into this one.

Well, well, well, the forehand down the line that has done a lot already for Nadal goes wide this time and there are two break points for Djokovic- Nadal saves the first despite having to go to a second serve and there are the first loud mutterings from Djokovic.

What defence from Nadal which is quickly turned into offense from the Spaniard and he has saved both break points.

Very impressive from Nadal after going 15-40 and we remain on serve.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 2-1* Rafael Nadal
It hasn't been a match of great great quality, but a lot of intrigue at the moment. The first point of this game is one of the better points we have seen, won by Djokovic with the backhand down the line after a mini-exchange at the net.

A lot of credit to Nadal as that forehand down the line has been imperious for much of this contest, once again doing the damage to bring the game to 30-15.

Great defence from Djokovic to earn the game, as the set is beginning to warm up.

Not sure I agree that the last Grand Slam winner is considered the best player in the World in the locker room- still think Djokovic will be considered in that position even if he loses, at least until Nadal beats him a second time in succession.

The reason for that is that there are the intangibles of Djokovic maybe feeling a little under the weather or fatigued, so players will want to see more before ruling him out as the best player because he lost in one Grand Slam Final after winning 3 of 4 last year, including the two before this one.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, *3-1 Rafael Nadal
The tennis is definitely picking up in terms of quality now as the first two points are both impressive and shared between the players.

If the first two were good solid points, the third is VERY impressive from Nadal as he hits a scorching backhand winner when in an unenviable position.

Another potentially big moment on the Nadal serve as the game goes back to 30 all... An error from Nadal brought it back to that score and another leads to a break point.

It's a second serve, and this time Djokovic earns the point with a truly wonderful, if a little lucky, volley after approaching the Nadal backhand.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 4-1* Rafael Nadal
Nadal has definitely had a slight let down after winning the first set, even if his level of tennis is still pretty high... He has made some bad errors along with his stunning winners and given Djokovic too many opportunities to get himself involved in the match.

A big forehand error gave Nadal the first point of this game, while another crunching backhand wins the Spaniard the fourth point to leave it 30 all.

Wow, another stunning shot as the match is improving greatly- this time it is the Djokovic forehand to give him a chance to consolidate his break... He does so after forcing an error behind the backhand down the line.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, *4-2 Rafael Nadal
You have to have so much respect for the athletic ability of these players as some of the rallies have been exhausting to watch, let alone actually take part. There has been a slight adjustment by Djokovic on the return of serve as he has cottoned on to the fact that Nadal is trying to keep the second serve into the body for the most part.

Hmmm, Djokovic misses a slight chance to really increase the pressure when missing a volley at 15 all that he should have made... That leads to the first easy service game in this set for Nadal.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 5-2* Rafael Nadal
Gruelling rally to open this service game and it is won by Nadal as Djokovic just puts a backhand outside of the line.

A couple of bad mistakes from Nadal making life a little easier for Djokovic on serve, and then a cheeky shot at the net to hold serve.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, *5-3 Rafael Nadal
Important for Nadal to come out and hold serve, forcing Djokovic to serve out the set... Think it is also important that he gets to serve first in the third set, if Djokovic does serve this one out, and perhaps put a different kind of pressure on the World Number 1.

The eyeball test says that Djokovic is the better player so far, probably since the opening exchanges of the first set... It just seems he is more secure in what he wants to do in every point, with Nadal mixing the sublime with the ridiculous.

And there is one of the rare occasions where a server challenges the fact that his serve had gone in because he was hit with a stunning return winner. Djokovic was a little upset because he thought it meant a replay of the point even if the ball was in, but that is not the case...

We have had a couple of deuce points now as Djokovic looks to press home his advantage... Now he has a chance as he earns his first set point- a lot of respect for Nadal who saves it brilliantly.

He goes on to win the next two points and holds the serve.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 5-4* Rafael Nadal
When you are serving for the set, there is a different pressure on a player, but you wouldn't guess it from the way Djokovic won the first point of the game.

It is the backhand down the line that does all the damage really and Djokovic earns a couple of set points to level the match... Nadal saves both of those, one with a Djokovic error, but the second with some really solid shot-making. Now the pressure increases on the Serbian.

Wow, Nadal has a huge mental lapse when playing a drop shot that should have been put away... But it isn't and it's a break point for the Spaniard out of nowhere.

And a double fault from Djokovic means two set points have come and gone and we are back on serve. How much will he regret that miss on the easy pass at deuce?

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, *0-0
This is huge for Nadal now as he hasn't really had too many easy service games since the beginning of the match. The Spaniard needs to get plenty of first serves in, and really push home the shift of momentum that could have come from that break in the last game.

A tired looking backhand into the net from Djokovic, but that could be down to the disappointment of losing the last game... He follows it by crunching a second serve to move the game to 15 all.

There is a slight chance for Djokovic now at 30 all... This is a huge point- it is won by Nadal with yet another body serve, but it is the first serves that are helping him out of a tight hole.

Deuce at a crucial juncture of this match... You can feel the tension and the crowd are well aware of the significance of this point.

BIG error from Nadal as he approaches the net by attacking the Djokovic backhand, and he is duly passed for another set point- Djokovic is gifted the set with a double fault and that is ONE SET ALL...

Nadal was really struggling on his own serve, and he has been for a while with no easy holds being given to him by the Serbian... The Spaniard has not been able to consistently punch through Djokovic and I think the World Number 1 is showing why he is in that position as he has looked a little better in most aspects of the game.

There is more consistency in the Djokovic game, and more highs and lows from Nadal, and that means the momentum is surely with the Serbian... We will see in an hour whether I am right.


Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 1-0* Rafael Nadal
The feeling for me is that Nadal is having a fight on his hands mentally in this match at this moment, making a few strange decisions... He tries another drop shot in this game with no success, and Djokovic runs away with a hold to love.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, *1-1 Rafael Nadal
Nadal just taking his time now on service games, but he could really do with a couple of easy(ish) service holds to open up this third set. He was under pressure for 4 out of 5 service games in set 2 and that pressure led to the double fault that cost him the set.

A couple of decent serves and a Djokovic error gives Nadal a bit of breathing room this time as he has a couple of game points to hold.

That clearly doesn't mean anything as Djokovic is 100% reading the Nadal serve now and returning it with interest as he ups the pressure again at deuce.

The World Number 1 is playing some absolutely brilliant tennis now as he will not let Nadal out of this game... Even if he doesn't break in this game, this could be setting a mental trap for Nadal later on in the set and match, especially as he is serving second again in this set.

It took 5 game points, but Nadal has kept hold of his serve.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 2-1* Rafael Nadal
That backhand shot down the line from Djokovic, the shot that I thought makes all the difference for the Serb in his head to heads with Nadal, is just beginning to fire with a little more consistency now.

If there is one thing you know you will get from Nadal, it is the fact that he will give it all in EVERY point... He is holding on to Djokovic here and gets to 30 all on the Serbian's serve.

It's not enough though as another really bad error off the backhand releases some of the pressure on Djokovic and he holds to remain on serve early in set 3.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, *3-1 Rafael Nadal
At the moment, Nadal has to keep on the coat-tails of Djokovic who is clearly playing the better tennis... That can change if he stays close and the pressure builds towards the end of the set.

This game is another that is developing into a tough service hold as we get to 30 all again... Nadal is just not getting enough cheap points off his own serve, being forced to dig deep on each point.

A couple of terrible line calls have gone against Djokovic in the last 20 minutes, it has not been a good tournament for the line judges and umpires in all honesty, too many silly mistakes.

Djokovic is furious, but gets his mind together to earn a break point and a chance to really grab this match by the scruff of the neck- what a tough, tough point from both men, but it is Djokovic who forces Nadal to blink first and he takes a strong position in the set.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 4-1* Rafael Nadal
Unsurprisingly, Djokovic has shortened massively in the markets to win this match now... He wins the first three points in this service game with Nadal unable to return the ball into play.

Easy hold to love as Djokovic hits the ball 5 times in that game.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, *4-2 Rafael Nadal
Djokovic just has all the answers to the Nadal game at the moment and it is tough to see how the Spaniard will reverse this momentum that has built up in the last hour and a half.

The Serb earns a break point, but that is saved thanks to a big serve from Nadal... It is imperative he holds and see if Djokovic gets tight as the set closes in.

Nadal does hold thanks to a couple of Djokovic errors.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 5-2* Rafael Nadal
It's just far too easy on serve for Djokovic at the moment, winning points on serve without having to do a lot, while Nadal is pressed for everything he wins on his own serve.

Another hold to love for the best player in the World.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, *0-0 Rafael Nadal
Has Djokovic learned from set 2 and wants to take this game and not have to serve out the set? He wins the first point as Nadal is getting a little more frustrated and annoyed.

More errors from Nadal leaves Djokovic needing two more points to secure the second set... Another backhand error from the Spaniard brings up three set points.

Djokovic doesn't need too many more opportunities and WINS THE THIRD SET with a stunning forehand winner.

Djokovic dominated that second set and looks to have broken the Nadal spirit with the World Number 2 looking annoyed, frustrated and a little lost on the court at the moment. The Serb has looked better in almost every aspect of this game, including movement, and it is going to be tough for Nadal to recover as he will be playing catch up again in this set.


Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 1-0* Rafael Nadal
It is so funny seeing someone do to Nadal what Nadal has done to so many people in the past... I feel a little sorry for the guy, but this is how he makes Roger Federer feel when they play one another.

Djokovic continues earning enough cheap points in his service games, the best way to relieve any pressure and tension in an arm and that has been a big difference in the match between the players.

That doesn't mean Nadal is allowing Djokovic an easy time in this game though as he pulls it back to deuce... Big miss on the forehand side from Nadal, a shot he had been making regularly and effectively earlier in the match, but he still stays in the game.

Nadal is putting in a huge effort to stay with Djokovic, a real testament to his character here... He has been really outclassed in the last hour and a half of this match, but he keeps working hard and trying to force a change in momentum.

Not to be this time for the Spaniard, and a massive service game coming up for him next.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, *1-1 Rafael Nadal
It's a great backhand shot to win the opening point for Nadal, but how often can you do that? He is working so hard and has to play shots like that to win points on his own service games, while Djokovic is picking up errors and making unreturnable serves in his own.

The game goes back to 30 all as Nadal tries to replicate the shot that wins him the first point in this game, only to go long... This could be a vital game for Nadal to hold as we to get to deuce- the reason for that is that there is rumours of rain in the air and that could stop the Djokovic momentum that he has picked up so far.

A 6 minute game, but Nadal shows a lot of guts to hold serve.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 2-1* Rafael Nadal
We get a couple more demonstrations to the 'cheap' points that Djokovic is able to pick up on serve that Nadal isn't- he gets a short ball for the first point, hits two aces, and then Nadal hits the serve straight out for the error.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, *2-2 Rafael Nadal
Everything Nadal tries, Djokovic is seemingly able to counter, including a defensive lob that lands on the line at the back of the court to move the game forward to 15 all.

Lots of credit to the Spanish player as he wins 3 points in a row to level the set.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 3-2* Rafael Nadal
Nadal has done the first thing he needed to by staying in the set early by holding a couple of service games. He now wins the first point on the Djokovic serve with an impressive forehand that lands on the back of the line.

The World Number 2 is pumped as he wins the point with a great forehand across the court, and is now in a decent position to pressure Djokovic... Credit to the level of play both have shown at different times under pressure though as the Serb levels the game at 30 all... Big point this one for Nadal.

The serve has been one of the crucial differences and it earns Djokovic another cheap point before he holds to 30.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, *3-3 Rafael Nadal
It is on these occasions that Champions can show the reason why they are what they are... The pressure is on Nadal to keep holding serve, but he hasn't won 11 Grand Slam titles before without dealing with this. A solid opening serve is much appreciated I'm sure.

He doesn't want to give too many points away as a double fault brings it back to 30-15... And now the pressure has increased ten-fold with a Nadal error leaving him a perilous position at 30 all.

Lovely stuff from Nadal to survive that game from a tough position and we remain on serve.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 4-3* Rafael Nadal
A bit of a mental lapse from Djokovic perhaps as he opens the game with a drop shot into the net when in control of the point.

The pressure must really be immense on both players as we close in on the latter part of this set, but Djokovic showing what has taken him to 3 of the last 4 Grand Slams by winning the next two points to the frustration of Nadal who continues to make too many basic errors.

Silly mistakes really from Nadal at this stage of the match and I think his return of serve has really let him down. Still on serve, but one break of serve could end this match now for Djokovic.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, *4-4 Rafael Nadal
Nadal comes out now and I am wondering if they will sit down again in this match for a change of ends? First serves are crucial I feel if Nadal wants to stay in this match.

Great start from Djokovic with a backhand that hits the outside of the line to win the first point of the game.

Nadal has served two first serves to open up this game, but he has lost both and it's a very pressure filled moment for the Spaniard now at 0-30.

Crunching winner from Djokovic on his forehand and it's three break points for a chance to serve for the Championship... The first of those are saved behind some thumping Nadal forehands, but that is tough to do for another couple of points in all honesty.

Big first serve which is not returned and we are down to the final break point at this moment... What a shot off the backhand and Nadal has SAVED all three break points... AND THE RAIN HAS COME!!

What a time for the rain to come down, and now Nadal serves an ace to move to game point... What a Champion Nadal is, and what guts and bravery has he shown.

He gets out of the game with 5 unbelievable points, I bow down to Rafa Nadal... And it looks like we are going to have a 20 minute break for the rain delay until the roof is closed.

How much momentum will that take out of Djokovic?

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 5-4* Rafael Nadal
This is a huge game for Djokovic after what happened before the rain delay... He must feel this should have been the last game of the match, but has to focus else he may have another couple of hours to go.

Very smart match play from the Serb and he wins the first two points behind the serve... An error from Nadal gives him 3 game points and he then holds to love with maybe the shot of the match as he hits a forehand winner from outside the tramlines.

Tremendous temperament from the World Number 1 and now the pressure is truly on Nadal.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, *5-5 Rafael Nadal
Nadal just cannot afford to come out and make mistakes as the pressure is going to be extremely taxing after the emotional highs of a couple of games ago.

Unfortunately, he goes long with the first point of the game, but shows more of the famous belief by toughing out the next to take us to 15 all.

Hmmm a couple of bad errors on Djokovic's part now and Nadal can level the match with two game points.

What defence from Nadal again and this set is still alive.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-5* Rafael Nadal
Now how does Djokovic respond to this mini-revival from Nadal who is playing better than he has for most of the last couple of hours?

It's getting tense, you can tell that both players are beginning to feel the fact they have been out there for over 4 hours already... Djokovic faces a huge moment, perhaps for the whole match, as we get to 30 all, 5 all...

Eye of the needle stuff from Djokovic to move to game point... My respect for these players has gone up a couple of notches today, especially in the big moment changing points, particularly for Novak Djokovic.

Another hold of serve, and once again the pressure is on Nadal to hold serve and force a tie-break in this fourth set.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-6 Rafael Nadal
Nadal has found a new lease of life and belief since going 0-40 down in game 8 of this set, and he starts off by winning the first point in this service game.

This is probably the best tennis Nadal has produced on a consistent basis since the start of the match and he is two points from a tie-break situation.

Brilliant serving from Nadal, truly brilliant under the pressure he must have been feeling and it is tie-break time.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7 (5-7) Rafael Nadal
They say 75% of tie-breaks are won by the person who wins the first point... Djokovic earns that point with an unreturned serve.

Point 2 is magnificent as Nadal hits a ball right on the baseline and then buries Djokovic with a huge forehand that effectively won him the point as he puts a simple volley away.

Best serving of the match from Nadal in the last 20 minutes or so and he wins an easy enough point to move ahead 2-1 in this breaker.

That was an absolutely big chance for Nadal to win the point, but he has gone long with a backhand... That has to be considered a real chance, tie break is tied at 2-2.

Tight forehand from Djokovic on the next point at the first mini-break goes to Nadal who leads 3-2 with two serves to come.

Oh no... Bad net cord for Nadal there which sees the ball fly out and it's 3-3 at the change over.

Has Djokovic won that point? We get to a challenge and Nadal has just put the ball wide of the line and it's Djokovic who now leads 4-3 with two serves to come... Big, pressure filled moments.

This is why these two are the best players in the World right now- great defence from Nadal for so long, only for Djokovic to slap a winner off his forehand right on to the line... Great stuff, 5-3 World Number 1.

Oh my goodness, Djokovic has just hit the ball wide of the line when in control of the rally and we are at 5-4*, with now Nadal having to serve twice... How big is this set for Djokovic now?

Unbelievable defence from Rafa again, but Djokovic should not be missing that ball from there... Still not sure how Nadal managed to get the ball over the net though if I am honest, 5-5.

Biggest point now, set point, or match point... Big first serve, set point Nadal, 6-5.

That is tremendous stuff from Nadal, I have absolutely no idea how he has won that set from the positions he has been in... Djokovic hits the ball wide, again, of the sidelines and we are level at TWO SETS ALL


How much can Djokovic have left in the tank after blowing 3 break points in a row during the middle of the set and then losing 4 straight in the tie-breaker to drop from 5-3 to 5-7... This will show the heart of a Champion now.

Great from Nadal who has had a Lazarus style comeback when seemingly well out of the match and coming back out of nowhere. He finished that set playing the best tennis he has all day.


Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, *0-1 Rafael Nadal
It's a shift in pressure too as Nadal will get to serve first in this final set... Personally I think he has all the momentum and it is his tournament to lose.

Some more great shot-making and Nadal holds to 30 in that one.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, 1-1* Rafael Nadal
It's a fairly routine hold for Novak Djokovic as he quickly moved 40-0 up and eventually holds to 15... It has gone a little quiet at the moment after all the excitement of set 4.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, *1-2 Rafael Nadal
How many bad line calls have gone against Djokovic today? He has yet another one off a solid return and is rightly unhappy.

Tennis is a funny sport- around an hour ago, Nadal was finding it almost impossible to win easy service points and games... He has been serving massively straight through the tie-break and opening up the first couple of service games in set 5.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, 2-2* Rafael Nadal
This is a dangerous time for Djokovic as it is him who now needs to hold on to the coat-tails of a Nadal playing as well as he has in this entire tournament.

Those danger levels have just gone up another level as Djokovic falls into a 15-30 hole... Next point is absolutely huge, so Djokovic decides to throw in an ace, 30 all.

Another real chance for Nadal to make a pass and force Djokovic to come out with a volley, but he fails to make it. And Djokovic gets the hold.. What a tennis match.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, *2-3 Rafael Nadal
The World Number 1 should be sitting in the changing rooms with another trophy in his cabinet having finished this match around 40 minutes ago and he looks extremely tired now.

A tired backhand allows Nadal to move up to 30-0, and he goes on to hold to love with little to no problems. We have seen Djokovic come back from the dead before, but this looks really tough for him here.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, 2-4* Rafael Nadal
It's getting to that point where holding serve becomes more and more difficult when you are serving second. This will tell us a lot about the state of mind that Djokovic has now.

The errors are coming off the Djokovic racquet now, but he continues to show tremendous heart and moves into a 30-15 lead.

Big pressure now though as another error gives Nadal a slight chance to put his foot on the throat at 30 all.

Another error and this could the match right here as Nadal has a break point- he takes it thanks to another error from the World Number 1 and I think this is just about it for the Serb in a match he really should have won.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, *3-4 Rafael Nadal
It really is the best tennis Nadal has played all tournament as he has cut out his unforced errors and started to hit more winners.. There is still some fight left in Djokovic as he pulls the game back to 15 all, but it does feel he has been ground into submission here.

It looks like the game is going to Nadal with a bit of space, but he has somehow put a ball wide from a position I think I could have put it away and it's 30 all.

And out of absolutely nowhere, Djokovic earns a break point... That miss is looking even more silly now!! And Djokovic does break back, I cannot believe this match, some ridiculous turns of momentum when it looked like the World Number 1 was finished.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, 4-4* Rafael Nadal
The question is how much did Djokovic expend, energy wise, in getting back into this? His body language is languid and he looks completely out of it, but he is summoning some unbelievable levels out of himself.

You can totally see why he is the World Number 1 player, both players have been amazing and showed real resilience in this match and there have been some massive momentum shifts.

Djokovic lost the first point on serve, but has fought back and moved into a 40-15 lead... Absolute epic of a match, and some real credit to Djokovic just days after another long match with Andy Murray.

The World Number 1 holds and now the pressure is on Nadal after it looked like he was going to cruise in this set.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, *4-5 Rafael Nadal
Djokovic collapses in a heap after a ridiculous point in the opening point of this game... Have these guys really been out there for over 5 hours? I cannot believe this, I really cannot!!

That first point took a lot out of Djokovic, but he is once again undone by a terrible line call, that must be the 5th or 6th time that has happened to him now... What are the line judges doing?

Well well, Nadal makes a couple of bad errors there and all of a sudden, after looking out on his feet, Djokovic is back to 30 all.

Unbelievable stuff from Djokovic, he wants this and forces the game to deuce... This is his moment I feel, I don't think I like his chances of having to serve to stay in the match if he fails to break here.

And just as I finish typing that, it is indeed a break point for the Serbian- big serve, big heart and big belief as Rafa saves that point.

Nadal gets his chance to get out of the game and a Djokovic error allows him to do so... Now how is your tension Djokovic?

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, 5-5* Rafael Nadal
I just don't know how much more I can say about Novak Djokovic... He is rightly the best player in the World and he is showing why he is in that position by finding this energy from within.

I would probably tell Serbia that he won't be ready to compete for his country in the Davis Cup in a couple of weeks time though, he will need a month to recover from this.

Superb tennis from the World Number 1 and he holds to 15... We are in the position now where we need a two game differential to separate the players, no tie break in this set.

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, *6-5 Rafael Nadal
I am left shaking my head as Nadal somehow hooks a forehand down the line to win the first point... Great tennis.

He tries something similar on the next point, but is not so accurate and it's 15 all.

It's 15-30, and Djokovic has a real chance to do something as he reads the Nadal approach as he comes to the net... But the lob is wide and it's 30 all.

WOW... Djokovic had won that point about 4 times but Nadal keeps retrieving and scrambling, but he can't do much more and it's break point, a huge moment now.

Big mistake from Djokovic in trying to return the second serve, bad footwork really and Nadal has the easy put away... Back to deuce...

Not to matter now though as he has another chance with a second break point- it sounds like someone shouted out on the shot and put Nadal off... Djokovic will not care as he earns the break and now will get a chance to serve for the Championship!!

Novak Djokovic 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7, 7-5
What kind of physical shape must you be in to perform the way these two are? Imagine how long it would take on a clay court if they meet at Roland Garros?

After winning a gruelling first point, Djokovic moves up 30-0 and is two points from the Championship...

Oh my goodness- Nadal shows incredible defence but Djokovic puts a smash into the bottom of the net. Think he should have let that bounce and played another shot, but now it's 30 all.

Seriously, I am going to fall out of my seat here- how in all the World did Nadal survive that point and then create a break point? Superbly saved from Djokovic and he remains just two points from the title. GREAT TENNIS all round!!

It's another unfortunate net cord, but here we go... Championship Point for Novak Djokovic.

And there it is... Congratulations to Novak Djokovic, the Australian Open 2012 Champion


The man deserved to win that Final, but I have to say I want to give Rafael Nadal all the praise in the World for making this as good a contest as it was.


Djokovic should have won almost 90 minutes ago, but congratulations to him... I'll be back for an Australian Open Recap later this evening, I need a beer now... Thanks for reading

Saturday, 28 January 2012

Australian Open Day 14 Pick- Djokovic v Nadal

It turned out to be a wonderful Saturday as Victoria Azarenka confirmed her place as the new World Number 1 in Women's Tennis, beating Maria Sharapova in remarkably straight-forward fashion to also claim the Australian Open title.

It was wonderful as Azarenka had formed part of the staking plan at the beginning of the tournament and brought in the prize 7.00.

To make me feel even better, she also managed to secure the win in straight sets, meaning we picked up an additional 2 units of profit for the daily picks with one more match to go.

Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal: This was the Final that everyone was looking forward to see as Rafael Nadal tries to put a disappointing 2011 behind him where he lost all 6 matches against Novak Djokovic, all coming in Finals.

Nadal is also looking to avoid a bit of negative history rather than a lot of the positive history he has made in his career as he could be the first player to lose three consecutive Grand Slam Finals in the Open Era I believe.

So how will this Final go tomorrow? Personally I think Novak Djokovic has an excellent chance to win this match and that is mainly down to one shot- the backhand down the line to the Nadal backhand was the shot that won him those matches last season, and we have already seen Tomas Berdych and Roger Federer have success to a lesser extent in this tournament.

The bottom line is Djokovic plays that shot with so much consistency and is is able to change the direction of the ball so well in rallies that it keeps Nadal a little off-balance when playing against him.

The Nadal serve also means he has to win more rallies than someone like Federer does when he plays Djokovic, and I think that is what gives the World Number 1 a definite edge as his consistency and shot-making ability off the backhand hurt Nadal effectively.

The intangibles here are how fit Djokovic is after really having a couple of extremely tough matches- however, I think the day and half rest will be enough for him to come out firing in this one and I do think he will be too good for the Spaniard again.

I have already picked Djokovic as my outright choice to win this tournament, so, like yesterday, I won't be loading any more money on him in the match markets.

Instead, I will look for the World Number 1 to win this match in 4 sets, a number of sets it took him to complete the job at Wimbledon and at the US Open against Nadal. It is also telling that Nadal won a set in 4 of their 6 meetings last season, suggesting he takes advantage when Djokovic slips from his level a little bit, but the Serbian is took good for the most part.


As I did yesterday, I am going to try and cover this Final live with my thoughts as the match progresses on this blog tomorrow. I really enjoyed doing it for the Women's Final, and there seemed to be enough people viewing to make it at least worth my while too.


Unlike yesterday, I will hopefully begin the thread before the match starts and cover right through to the lifting of the trophy.


Thanks for the support and I hope a few of you will join me in the morning for another fascinating clash between the two best players in the World... I will post a link on Twitter to the thread for the live updates.




MY PICK: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 in sets @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)


Australian Open Update: 21-15, + 16.76 Units

Monday, 12 September 2011

US Open Men's Final Pick

The first thing I will say is I am still not quite over the shock of seeing Sam Stosur dismantle Serena Williams yesterday in the Women's Final.

Every time you would think Williams would come back she wouldn't and it was far easier than anyone could have possibly imagined.

My thoughts on the controversial incident at the beginning of set 2 is that the umpire could have used her discretion and called a 'let' on the point where Serena screamed before the point was technically won- Stosur was not going to get back to the shot, but I did remark BEFORE the point penalty that Williams should not be doing that.

While the rules state such an incident should see the point awarded to the opponent, in this case Stosur, I think the umpire could have given Williams a warning not to do it again and replayed the point rather than the way she handled it.

That is not to condone how Serena reacted when given a code violation in the next game, nor when she sent out a torrent of abuse at the changeover.

A big factor that may have been overlooked in the Final was the late nature of Serena's match the day before- Stosur had actually finished her Semi Final before Williams had even taken to the court and that may have been another reason why Williams underperformed.

That is not to take anything away from Stosur who played the best match of her career- now it will be interesting to see how she handles the next Grand Slam she plays after seeing how Petra Kvitova and Na Li have struggled since winning their first majors... Oh, and Stosur's next Grand Slam will be at home at the Australian Open, so no expectations then!


The Men's Final takes place today, weather permitting, and I think Novak Djokovic is rightly the favourite to come through. He has had Nadal's number this season, including on the Spaniard's favoured clay courts and it is hard to see how things can change here.

The fact Djokovic took 5 sets to see off Federer should be less of an issue than last year as it was not the gruelling match of 12 months ago, as well as the fact Djokovic managed to play his Semi Final first. Nadal may have won in 4 sets, but his match with Andy Murray also went a long time so fatigue should not play an issue.

The problem for Nadal is the pace and power Djokovic has- he can hit through the World Number 2 and also has incredible defensive skills.

The other key is Djokovic can handle the heavy top spin shots Nadal favours and I can only see the Serb winning his 3rd major of the season while reaffirming his Number 1 World Ranking.

Nadal is a battler, and I can see him taking a set, so I will have a small interest in Djokovic coming through 3-1 in sets.


MY PICK: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 in sets @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)


US OPEN UPDATE: 26-18, + 24.03 Units