It has been an 'almost' kind of week for the tennis picks with a little misfortune at critical moments costing me the chance to really start kicking on.
Ryan Harrison missing a cover on Wednesday by a single game despite going into a third set was disappointing, while yesterday I picked the Steve Johnson-John Isner match to go at least eleven games in the first set.
Unfortunately Isner was broken in the eighth game of the set when both had been comfortable on serve and that only led to frustration when thinking their set two had twelve games and set three needed a tie-breaker to separate them.
I never really stood a chance backing Eugenie Bouchard as an underdog when you think of the manner in which she was beaten, but at least Joao Sousa was a very easy winner in his Quarter Final.
Jack Sock - 1.5 games v Steve Johnson: This is another battle between two of the biggest hopes for the America's men's tennis as the Australian Open as Jack Sock and Steve Johnson meet for the seventh time on the ATP Tour. You have to think both players are very much aware of what the other brings to the court and a close encounter is expected by the layers.
For the second season in a row, Sock has played really well in Auckland having reached the Final here last season before an injury meant having to pull out and go to the Australian Open carrying an issue. This time around he looks fully healthy and Sock had an impressive showing at the Hopman Cup and has carried his form through to Auckland.
Sock created an unbelievable 25 break points in his three set win over Jeremy Chardy in the Quarter Final and that returning will give him his chances against Steve Johnson. The latter had an impressive win of his own when eventually seeing off John Isner in three sets and Johnson has been serving at a high level this week which makes that battle between himself and Sock in the serve-return games fascinating to see who can take control.
It has to be said that Sock is not a slouch when it comes to his own service games, but that is definitely a department that is stronger for Johnson. However if Sock can negate some of the big first serves and get into the rallies, he will feel he can pressure Johnson enough to extract mistakes from a game that can be erratic at times.
I will be surprised if this is an easy match for either of these players and have to expect it will go into a third set. I do feel the conditions are enjoyed by both too, but Sock has past solid experiences here in Auckland and I think he can use his superior return game to just about battle past Johnson in a 75, 46, 64 win.
Victor Troicki - 1.5 games v Gilles Muller: It isn't too often that Victor Troicki has been asked to defend a title, but he is making a good effort to do that in Sydney and has to be considered the favourite of the four Semi Finalists left in the draw. This might be the toughest match he will have to negotiate when Troicki faces Gilles Muller who has battled through the three Rounds here to reach the Semi Final.
It has been far from plain sailing for Muller so far in Sydney having needed three sets to win his first two matches before winning enough of the big points to beat Pablo Cuevas in the Quarter Final. The lefty serve has been working very well so far this week and that will always make Muller a dangerous player when he is hitting his marks, but Troicki is a tall man and will expect himself to at least force the Luxembourg Number 1 to hit a few tough volleys to win his points.
The mental side of the game has always been something of an issue for Troicki at this level and how he deals with trying to get into the Muller games will likely determine the outcome of this match. Troicki isn't as battle hardened having needed to win one match to get through to the Semi Final, but he was serving pretty well in Brisbane last week. The only concern for Troicki backers has to be the host of Double Faults he has littered his matches with in Brisbane and you don't want to give Muller too many free points to make a success of a return game.
The second serve stats will likely decide the winner of this one and I do have to believe that Troicki is the superior mover on the court at this stage of their careers. I also think the Serbian has to be considered the better player once the rallies get underway and I think he can use that to get the better of this tough opponent.
Of course if Muller serves lights out it will be difficult, but I expect Troicki to get involved in enough of the return games to beat this opponent in Sydney for the second time in three seasons. I can see Troicki moving through to the Final in a 76, 64 win.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 3.5 games v Johanna Konta: A strong field had gathered for the WTA Sydney tournament in preparation for the Australian Open and the Final is going to be competed between two top ten players in Johanna Konta and Agnieszka Radwanska. Both may feel this can give them a real shot in the arm heading into the first Grand Slam of the season which looks very open in the women's draw after both Angelique Kerber and Serena Williams made stuttering starts to 2017.
Both will be keen on seeing the kind of draw they receive at the Australian Open on Friday, but first things first will be trying to take care of business in the Sydney Final. It is a chance for Konta to show how far she has been improving as a player after losing both matches to Radwanska in the last six months in fairly one sided fashion once the Pole got in front.
The last four sets competed have been won by Radwanska since Konta took a tie-breaker in the first set they played against one another and those four sets have been won for the loss of just ten games. It does seem the match up could be a problem with Radwanska's defensive abilities able to frustrate a consistent Konta who perhaps can't keep that going when she looks to up the power level to penetrate the Pole's defences.
The Konta first serve is the key for her chances in this one- it is a big enough shot that it can help the British player earn a short ball which will give her the ability to shorten the rallies and finish Radwanska off before the long, gruelling rallies can begin. The longer the rallies go, the more you would have to favour Radwanska finding a way to extract errors from Konta.
Radwanska's serve is far from the biggest on the Tour, but she does protect it well enough, while both players have been in decent form this week. However I think Radwanska has shown she can handle the way Konta likes to play and I think that will show up here in what might just be a poor match up for the British player. After a battle, I can see Radwanska just grinding down Konta in a 64, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Jack Sock - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victor Troicki - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-4, + 1.02 Units (18 Units Staked, + 5.67% Yield)
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Thursday, 12 January 2017
Wednesday, 11 January 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (January 12th)
We are down to the Quarter Finals in most cases in tournaments this week and for the WTA Sydney event we have got to the Semi Finals as the attention begins to turn to the Australian Open draw which takes place on Friday.
It has been a decent week for the picks, but it could have been even better if Ryan Harrison had managed to win one more game in his loss to Jack Sock on Wednesday. The match did go into a deciding set as I anticipated, but Harrison lost that 6-1 which allowed Sock to come through with a cover by a single game.
Things happen and it has been a solid enough week which I want to end in the right way and then we can focus on the Australian Open which begins on Monday, but actually starts on Sunday evening for those of us in the United Kingdom. Most of the matches at this time of the season are played during the sleeping hours for us over in this part of the world, but that is the way it goes and most of the next few months will be played at much more reasonable hours.
Joao Sousa - 1.5 games v Robin Haase: A win over David Ferrer in the Second Round has to give Robin Haase confidence to take into the rest of the tournament in Auckland. I have to admit I am surprised that Haase is up to Number 58 in the World Rankings considering he has not had more than 15 wins on the main ATP Tour in any of the last three seasons, but successes on the Challenger circuit have kept in a decent position.
The layers have set this as almost a pick 'em contest between Haase and Joao Sousa and there isn't much that separates them in the World Rankings. Sousa has had two decent wins in Auckland this week to build his own confidence in his first appearance in 2017 especially after coming in off a tough 2016 following a career best year in 2015.
Neither player is at their best on the hard courts but will be looking at the clay court season in which to build their points over the course of the year. However I do think Sousa has had considerably more success on this surface than Haase in recent years which might be a surprise considering the Dutchman has the stronger serve and should have an edge in the power department.
The Sousa consistency is where he is going to have an edge in the match and I do think it might be tough for Haase to back up his win over Ferrer having spent more time on court than Sousa. The courts are playing pretty fast in Auckland, but Sousa has played well on the indoor hard courts and I think the speed won't bother him as much as you may expect on the face of things.
It was Haase who dominated proceedings when these players met in Marseille but Sousa got some revenge when they played at the Olympic Games in Rio. The first serve is going to be critical for Haase in this Quarter Final, but I think Sousa can get the better of someone who had a big upset win on Wednesday and can find that tough to back up. It could easily go into a third set, but Sousa can come through with a 64, 46, 64 win and a place in the Semi Final.
John Isner-Steve Johnson Over 10.5 Total Games Set One: This is never an easy market to get involved in simply because all it takes is a couple of special returns and a break is generated. The problem for Steve Johnson and John Isner is that being broken will almost certainly mean the end of the set for them, but I do think there is every chance these two players will get to at least five all in the first set.
Both are heavily reliant on the serve and neither is a great returner, while the quicker conditions in Auckland might highlight both of those areas of their game. In four of their six previous matches it has needed a tie-breaker to decide the first set, while more than half of their fifteen completed sets have ended in a tie-breaker.
Johnson has been serving well this week having faced just two break points in his two matches, but he could only create one break point in his last match against Yen-Hsun Lu. There were breaks in the first two sets in the John Isner match against Malek Jaziri, but the percentage of points won against serve were not exactly inspiring.
Both players can look after their serve for long enough to get over this number in the first set and I will back that outcome from this Quarter Final.
Eugenie Bouchard + 3.5 games v Johanna Konta: I am the first to admit that I have felt Eugenie Bouchard has been one of the most over-rated players on the WTA Tour who are desperate for a new face to replace the likes of Maria Sharapova at the forefront of their campaigns. Journalists and experts have always tended to favour the blonde bombshell, like previously with Anna Kournikova, but Bouchard has at least been a little better on the court than the Russian.
It has been a tough eighteen months for Bouchard though and she has slipped down the World Rankings and is now regularly over-rated by fans and experts alike. However this is a very positive week for Bouchard with three wins over players Ranked higher than the Canadian and she has to be confident going into this Semi Final.
This is a big task for Bouchard against Johanna Konta who has had a tremendously successful twelve months and has shown she is still working hard to develop with her start in 2017. Her three wins in Sydney have been very impressive and Konta will feel she can match the Semi Final run at the Australian Open in 2016 in her current form.
Konta is the better player on a consistent basis, but I do think Bouchard can put together enough tennis at a slightly higher level than Konta which can help her take a set. Her form this week suggests this will be a close match and Konta could have some problems if Bouchard brings her very best to the court. Overall I do think Konta's steady play gets her through the match, but this is enough games to make Bouchard an appealing pick and I will back her to keep this competitive at the very least.
MY PICKS: Joao Sousa - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
John Isner-Steve Johnson Over 10.5 Games Set One @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-2, + 3.20 Units (12 Units Staked, + 26.67% Yield)
It has been a decent week for the picks, but it could have been even better if Ryan Harrison had managed to win one more game in his loss to Jack Sock on Wednesday. The match did go into a deciding set as I anticipated, but Harrison lost that 6-1 which allowed Sock to come through with a cover by a single game.
Things happen and it has been a solid enough week which I want to end in the right way and then we can focus on the Australian Open which begins on Monday, but actually starts on Sunday evening for those of us in the United Kingdom. Most of the matches at this time of the season are played during the sleeping hours for us over in this part of the world, but that is the way it goes and most of the next few months will be played at much more reasonable hours.
Joao Sousa - 1.5 games v Robin Haase: A win over David Ferrer in the Second Round has to give Robin Haase confidence to take into the rest of the tournament in Auckland. I have to admit I am surprised that Haase is up to Number 58 in the World Rankings considering he has not had more than 15 wins on the main ATP Tour in any of the last three seasons, but successes on the Challenger circuit have kept in a decent position.
The layers have set this as almost a pick 'em contest between Haase and Joao Sousa and there isn't much that separates them in the World Rankings. Sousa has had two decent wins in Auckland this week to build his own confidence in his first appearance in 2017 especially after coming in off a tough 2016 following a career best year in 2015.
Neither player is at their best on the hard courts but will be looking at the clay court season in which to build their points over the course of the year. However I do think Sousa has had considerably more success on this surface than Haase in recent years which might be a surprise considering the Dutchman has the stronger serve and should have an edge in the power department.
The Sousa consistency is where he is going to have an edge in the match and I do think it might be tough for Haase to back up his win over Ferrer having spent more time on court than Sousa. The courts are playing pretty fast in Auckland, but Sousa has played well on the indoor hard courts and I think the speed won't bother him as much as you may expect on the face of things.
It was Haase who dominated proceedings when these players met in Marseille but Sousa got some revenge when they played at the Olympic Games in Rio. The first serve is going to be critical for Haase in this Quarter Final, but I think Sousa can get the better of someone who had a big upset win on Wednesday and can find that tough to back up. It could easily go into a third set, but Sousa can come through with a 64, 46, 64 win and a place in the Semi Final.
John Isner-Steve Johnson Over 10.5 Total Games Set One: This is never an easy market to get involved in simply because all it takes is a couple of special returns and a break is generated. The problem for Steve Johnson and John Isner is that being broken will almost certainly mean the end of the set for them, but I do think there is every chance these two players will get to at least five all in the first set.
Both are heavily reliant on the serve and neither is a great returner, while the quicker conditions in Auckland might highlight both of those areas of their game. In four of their six previous matches it has needed a tie-breaker to decide the first set, while more than half of their fifteen completed sets have ended in a tie-breaker.
Johnson has been serving well this week having faced just two break points in his two matches, but he could only create one break point in his last match against Yen-Hsun Lu. There were breaks in the first two sets in the John Isner match against Malek Jaziri, but the percentage of points won against serve were not exactly inspiring.
Both players can look after their serve for long enough to get over this number in the first set and I will back that outcome from this Quarter Final.
Eugenie Bouchard + 3.5 games v Johanna Konta: I am the first to admit that I have felt Eugenie Bouchard has been one of the most over-rated players on the WTA Tour who are desperate for a new face to replace the likes of Maria Sharapova at the forefront of their campaigns. Journalists and experts have always tended to favour the blonde bombshell, like previously with Anna Kournikova, but Bouchard has at least been a little better on the court than the Russian.
It has been a tough eighteen months for Bouchard though and she has slipped down the World Rankings and is now regularly over-rated by fans and experts alike. However this is a very positive week for Bouchard with three wins over players Ranked higher than the Canadian and she has to be confident going into this Semi Final.
This is a big task for Bouchard against Johanna Konta who has had a tremendously successful twelve months and has shown she is still working hard to develop with her start in 2017. Her three wins in Sydney have been very impressive and Konta will feel she can match the Semi Final run at the Australian Open in 2016 in her current form.
Konta is the better player on a consistent basis, but I do think Bouchard can put together enough tennis at a slightly higher level than Konta which can help her take a set. Her form this week suggests this will be a close match and Konta could have some problems if Bouchard brings her very best to the court. Overall I do think Konta's steady play gets her through the match, but this is enough games to make Bouchard an appealing pick and I will back her to keep this competitive at the very least.
MY PICKS: Joao Sousa - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
John Isner-Steve Johnson Over 10.5 Games Set One @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-2, + 3.20 Units (12 Units Staked, + 26.67% Yield)
Monday, 9 January 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (January 10th)
The early part of most weeks on the Tennis Tour tend to be a little quieter as the slow build into the tournaments is the usual formula applied. However there are a few weeks when the matches come thick and fast earlier in the week to make sure these events are completed ahead of the Grand Slams and give the participants time to head off to the next venues.
On Tuesday there are a lot of matches to be played across the four different draws and I have picks from some of those after Jiri Vesely got the week off to a solid start with a battling win on Monday.
Ryan Harrison - 3.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: The poor end to the 2016 season has overrun into 2017 for Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and I do wonder how his confidence would not have been knocked. It is now seven straight losses for Garcia-Lopez and the veteran has now won just three matches from the last twelve tournaments he has competed in.
All of that adds up and Garcia-Lopez has won one of the last thirteen sets in which he has competed and the layers have set Ryan Harrison as a pretty strong favourite in this one. The American had a disappointing loss in Brisbane last week, but he is back inside the top 100 in the World Rankings and he has won two Qualifiers in Auckland which means he should be very tuned up to the conditions here.
The poor form of Garcia-Lopez has obviously contributed to the price in this match and it has been added to by the fact that Harrison has won their previous three matches. That includes a solid straight sets win in Shenzhen in the final quarter of the 2016 season and I do think Harrison can back up his wins so far this week to move into the Second Round.
Harrison has a decent serve when he has found some confidence and I expect that to at least put in a position to increase the pressure on Garcia-Lopez to keep holding his own service games. That has been an issue for Garcia-Lopez through his career and only becomes more difficult in his current state of mind and I think Harrison earns a break more in each set to come through with a 64, 64 win.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 3.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: The WTA tournament in Sydney is loaded with some of the top names on that Tour and those who may be considered amongst the favourites at Melbourne Park in the next fortnight. That means many of the Second Round matches are already very competitive looking and this one of three picks I am making from Sydney.
Svetlana Kuznetsova is still the face of Russian women's tennis having had a really good 2016 which saw her reach the WTA Finals and come close to actually winning the tournament. The confidence would have really given Kuznetsova a shot in the arm in the latter stages of her career and she has begun 2017 in decent form.
Losing out to Garbine Muguruza in Brisbane last week is no disgrace and Kuznetsova will be confident she can get the better of Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova who had a mixed 2016. Pavlyuchenkova has the tools to get much higher in the World Rankings, but she has a few vulnerabilities that the top players expose, while the mental aspect of trying to beat a compatriot who has been one of the best players in the nation has had an effect on her.
Pavlyuchenkova can cause problems if she is playing as well as she was when seeing off Samantha Stosur in the First Round, but she has to raise her level again to match Kuznetsova. A strong serving display would give Pavlyuchenkova a chance, but I think Kuznetsova can get her moving around and break her down and I like the veteran Russian to come through with a 64, 63 win.
Barbora Strycova - 2.5 games v Roberta Vinci: The head to head might read that Roberta Vinci has a 4-3 lead over Barbora Strycova, but most of those wins came before the latter made a real impact as a Singles player on the Tour. In fact it is Strycova who has won the last three matches between these players that have been played since March 2014 and you can see why the layers have made her the favourite in this Second Round match.
Both players have to work hard for the points they win on the court with both having decent enough first serves but weak second serves that tend to be vulnerable. It would be no surprise at all to see Strycova and Vinci share out a few breaks of serve in this one, but I do think Strycova has a little more consistency in her game to earn a couple more than her Italian opponent.
The backhand wing is where Strycova should be able to exert more pressure around the court than Vinci and I expect that to be a difference maker in a close match.
At this stage of their careers I would expect Strycova to have the considerably stronger movement around the court and able to get herself into better positions in the rallies. There will be plenty of long rallies and both players can have their moments in this one, but I think Strycova can come through with a 75, 64 win in this match.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 games v Christina McHale: I am not the biggest fan of the Agnieszka Radwanska game, or at least nothing like close to what commentators seem to be, but I do think she can be backed to cover a big number in this Second Round match. She faces the American Christina McHale who Radwanska has been able to wear down and beat in all four previous matches.
None of those sets has see McHale win more than three games against Radwanska as she finds it tough to get over the mental obstacle of breaking down the defensive work that the Pole gets around on the court. With McHale always looking to be aggressive, being asked to play one more ball than she is accustomed to leads to mistakes and that is partly the reason I think Radwanska usually gets the better of her so comfortably.
Radwanska wasn't in great form in Shenzhen last week, but McHale was on the wrong end of a heavy loss to Alize Cornet in Brisbane and I think Radwanska can move through this match in relative comfort.
The first set might be a little more competitive, but I can see McHale just struggling to stay in this one from a mental point of view if she does fall behind. It could lead to another one sided win for Radwanska against this opponent and I will back her to cover this handicap.
MY PICKS: Ryan Harrison - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Barbora Strycova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-0, + 2 Units (2 Units Staked, + 100% Yield)
On Tuesday there are a lot of matches to be played across the four different draws and I have picks from some of those after Jiri Vesely got the week off to a solid start with a battling win on Monday.
Ryan Harrison - 3.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: The poor end to the 2016 season has overrun into 2017 for Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and I do wonder how his confidence would not have been knocked. It is now seven straight losses for Garcia-Lopez and the veteran has now won just three matches from the last twelve tournaments he has competed in.
All of that adds up and Garcia-Lopez has won one of the last thirteen sets in which he has competed and the layers have set Ryan Harrison as a pretty strong favourite in this one. The American had a disappointing loss in Brisbane last week, but he is back inside the top 100 in the World Rankings and he has won two Qualifiers in Auckland which means he should be very tuned up to the conditions here.
The poor form of Garcia-Lopez has obviously contributed to the price in this match and it has been added to by the fact that Harrison has won their previous three matches. That includes a solid straight sets win in Shenzhen in the final quarter of the 2016 season and I do think Harrison can back up his wins so far this week to move into the Second Round.
Harrison has a decent serve when he has found some confidence and I expect that to at least put in a position to increase the pressure on Garcia-Lopez to keep holding his own service games. That has been an issue for Garcia-Lopez through his career and only becomes more difficult in his current state of mind and I think Harrison earns a break more in each set to come through with a 64, 64 win.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 3.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: The WTA tournament in Sydney is loaded with some of the top names on that Tour and those who may be considered amongst the favourites at Melbourne Park in the next fortnight. That means many of the Second Round matches are already very competitive looking and this one of three picks I am making from Sydney.
Svetlana Kuznetsova is still the face of Russian women's tennis having had a really good 2016 which saw her reach the WTA Finals and come close to actually winning the tournament. The confidence would have really given Kuznetsova a shot in the arm in the latter stages of her career and she has begun 2017 in decent form.
Losing out to Garbine Muguruza in Brisbane last week is no disgrace and Kuznetsova will be confident she can get the better of Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova who had a mixed 2016. Pavlyuchenkova has the tools to get much higher in the World Rankings, but she has a few vulnerabilities that the top players expose, while the mental aspect of trying to beat a compatriot who has been one of the best players in the nation has had an effect on her.
Pavlyuchenkova can cause problems if she is playing as well as she was when seeing off Samantha Stosur in the First Round, but she has to raise her level again to match Kuznetsova. A strong serving display would give Pavlyuchenkova a chance, but I think Kuznetsova can get her moving around and break her down and I like the veteran Russian to come through with a 64, 63 win.
Barbora Strycova - 2.5 games v Roberta Vinci: The head to head might read that Roberta Vinci has a 4-3 lead over Barbora Strycova, but most of those wins came before the latter made a real impact as a Singles player on the Tour. In fact it is Strycova who has won the last three matches between these players that have been played since March 2014 and you can see why the layers have made her the favourite in this Second Round match.
Both players have to work hard for the points they win on the court with both having decent enough first serves but weak second serves that tend to be vulnerable. It would be no surprise at all to see Strycova and Vinci share out a few breaks of serve in this one, but I do think Strycova has a little more consistency in her game to earn a couple more than her Italian opponent.
The backhand wing is where Strycova should be able to exert more pressure around the court than Vinci and I expect that to be a difference maker in a close match.
At this stage of their careers I would expect Strycova to have the considerably stronger movement around the court and able to get herself into better positions in the rallies. There will be plenty of long rallies and both players can have their moments in this one, but I think Strycova can come through with a 75, 64 win in this match.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 games v Christina McHale: I am not the biggest fan of the Agnieszka Radwanska game, or at least nothing like close to what commentators seem to be, but I do think she can be backed to cover a big number in this Second Round match. She faces the American Christina McHale who Radwanska has been able to wear down and beat in all four previous matches.
None of those sets has see McHale win more than three games against Radwanska as she finds it tough to get over the mental obstacle of breaking down the defensive work that the Pole gets around on the court. With McHale always looking to be aggressive, being asked to play one more ball than she is accustomed to leads to mistakes and that is partly the reason I think Radwanska usually gets the better of her so comfortably.
Radwanska wasn't in great form in Shenzhen last week, but McHale was on the wrong end of a heavy loss to Alize Cornet in Brisbane and I think Radwanska can move through this match in relative comfort.
The first set might be a little more competitive, but I can see McHale just struggling to stay in this one from a mental point of view if she does fall behind. It could lead to another one sided win for Radwanska against this opponent and I will back her to cover this handicap.
MY PICKS: Ryan Harrison - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Barbora Strycova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-0, + 2 Units (2 Units Staked, + 100% Yield)
Friday, 15 January 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (January 16th)
The Australian Open draw was made on Friday morning in Melbourne Park and the big news is obviously the fact that Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are Seeded to meet in the Semi Final after competing in the last two Men's Grand Slam Finals at Wimbledon and the US Open.
To be honest, I think this part of the season is not the most favourable for Roger Federer who has clearly put his biggest stock in the summer months with the last two Grand Slams as well as the Rio Olympics occupying his thoughts. Of course Federer goes into any Slam with a real belief he can win, even the French Open, but I do think the latter two Slams are much more favourable for his game.
The Women's draw looks wide open with the injuries that have affected the top players in the World Rankings, while Serena Williams would have hoped for a much more straight forward match than facing Camila Giorgi in the First Round.
One other match that caught my eye was Venus Williams versus Johanna Konta in the First Round as I really thought the British player could have a big 2016 season to follow up the form she showed in the latter half of 2015. That is a very difficult draw for her though and I am not sure Konta has shown enough in the first couple of weeks of 2016 to think she is in line for a big run as she had at the US Open.
This week the picks have had a good time, but Friday proved to be one of the poorer days of the week with the two Semi Finals in Auckland going the other way as I thought they would. David Ferrer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga won their first sets by the same 63 scoreline that put them in a strong position before losing the remaining two sets to be knocked out of the tournament.
Eugenie Bouchard - 3.5 games v Alize Cornet: This has already been a very big week for Eugenie Bouchard who is looking to bounce back from a poor 2015 season by the standards she has set for herself. Wins over the likes of Camila Giorgi and Dominika Cibulkova show that the confidence is improving, something that was noticed at the US Open, and Bouchard will be desperate to win her first title since 2014 and only her second on the Tour.
That is hard to accept for a player that has been tipped to go to the top of the World Rankings in the women's game and Bouchard herself has not been completely happy with her performances. Despite the win over the talented and tough Cibulkova, Bouchard has admitted that she wants to play better than she has shown.
I think she will have every chance to add the Hobart title to her trophy cabinet against Alize Cornet who has had a solid week herself and had a walkover in the Quarter Final. The Frenchwoman has slipped down the World Rankings herself and this has been an important week for her confidence too, but Cornet has not had to play the level of talent that Bouchard has and this is the toughest match she will have played.
Cornet can frustrate Bouchard and she is capable of knocking off any player on her day. However, I think Bouchard has shown enough this week to get through the challenge Cornet has presented and I believe she will battle through for a confidence boosting 64, 64 win.
Jack Sock - 1.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: This is perhaps not the Final that anyone really expected on Saturday in Auckland after both of these players surprised me with wins over David Ferrer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, the top two Seeds in the Semi Finals. Out of the two, I think Jack Sock has the chance to win his second title and prevent Roberto Bautista Agut winning his third.
It should be quite a good match to watch as both players look like they can match up well against one another.
Jack Sock has the power and the serve to give Bautista Agut an issue, but the Spaniard will feel he can use his better movement and superior backhand wing to extract errors from the American. However, my feeling is that Sock is able to bring his forehand into play for long enough to win enough rallies to come through and win this Final and add to his two wins over Bautista Agut in 2015.
It was the protection of his serve that helped Sock win both matches, although they were very close and I think it will be the serve that helps him win again. If his serve is working, Sock knows he will get his chances on the return to break serve and I expect that will help him win a tight match 76, 64.
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Victor Troicki: I think the favourites can make it a clean sweep of wins in the Finals to be played on Saturday and I like their chances to all cover the spreads that have been asked of them. Grigor Dimitrov is looking to recover from a disappointing 2015 season by putting this title away and giving him some momentum to take into the Australian Open which begins in a couple of days.
2015 was arguably a better year for Victor Troicki than it was for Dimitrov as he recovered his World Ranking following an enforced lay off from the Tour thanks to failing a drug test. In actual fact he simply asked to miss a day due to feeling unwell before doing the test a day later, but that didn't matter and he was forced off the Tour.
Both have had to battle the weather as well as their opponents to get through to this Final and I think Dimitrov may have an edge when it comes to physical well-being. Troicki had to battle through the distance in his Quarter Final and Semi Final which was played on Friday, while Dimitrov just had to put the finishing touches to his own Quarter Final win before winning his Semi Final with room to spare.
These two players met last week in Brisbane and Dimitrov won a three set match which was close for the first couple of sets. I think he is the better player and his physical fitness looks like it will be in a superior position to Troicki's in this Final and I think it might be a little 'easier' than last week as he wins this one 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Eugenie Bouchard - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-4, + 5.92 Units (24 Units Staked, + 24.67% Yield)
To be honest, I think this part of the season is not the most favourable for Roger Federer who has clearly put his biggest stock in the summer months with the last two Grand Slams as well as the Rio Olympics occupying his thoughts. Of course Federer goes into any Slam with a real belief he can win, even the French Open, but I do think the latter two Slams are much more favourable for his game.
The Women's draw looks wide open with the injuries that have affected the top players in the World Rankings, while Serena Williams would have hoped for a much more straight forward match than facing Camila Giorgi in the First Round.
One other match that caught my eye was Venus Williams versus Johanna Konta in the First Round as I really thought the British player could have a big 2016 season to follow up the form she showed in the latter half of 2015. That is a very difficult draw for her though and I am not sure Konta has shown enough in the first couple of weeks of 2016 to think she is in line for a big run as she had at the US Open.
This week the picks have had a good time, but Friday proved to be one of the poorer days of the week with the two Semi Finals in Auckland going the other way as I thought they would. David Ferrer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga won their first sets by the same 63 scoreline that put them in a strong position before losing the remaining two sets to be knocked out of the tournament.
Eugenie Bouchard - 3.5 games v Alize Cornet: This has already been a very big week for Eugenie Bouchard who is looking to bounce back from a poor 2015 season by the standards she has set for herself. Wins over the likes of Camila Giorgi and Dominika Cibulkova show that the confidence is improving, something that was noticed at the US Open, and Bouchard will be desperate to win her first title since 2014 and only her second on the Tour.
That is hard to accept for a player that has been tipped to go to the top of the World Rankings in the women's game and Bouchard herself has not been completely happy with her performances. Despite the win over the talented and tough Cibulkova, Bouchard has admitted that she wants to play better than she has shown.
I think she will have every chance to add the Hobart title to her trophy cabinet against Alize Cornet who has had a solid week herself and had a walkover in the Quarter Final. The Frenchwoman has slipped down the World Rankings herself and this has been an important week for her confidence too, but Cornet has not had to play the level of talent that Bouchard has and this is the toughest match she will have played.
Cornet can frustrate Bouchard and she is capable of knocking off any player on her day. However, I think Bouchard has shown enough this week to get through the challenge Cornet has presented and I believe she will battle through for a confidence boosting 64, 64 win.
Jack Sock - 1.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: This is perhaps not the Final that anyone really expected on Saturday in Auckland after both of these players surprised me with wins over David Ferrer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, the top two Seeds in the Semi Finals. Out of the two, I think Jack Sock has the chance to win his second title and prevent Roberto Bautista Agut winning his third.
It should be quite a good match to watch as both players look like they can match up well against one another.
Jack Sock has the power and the serve to give Bautista Agut an issue, but the Spaniard will feel he can use his better movement and superior backhand wing to extract errors from the American. However, my feeling is that Sock is able to bring his forehand into play for long enough to win enough rallies to come through and win this Final and add to his two wins over Bautista Agut in 2015.
It was the protection of his serve that helped Sock win both matches, although they were very close and I think it will be the serve that helps him win again. If his serve is working, Sock knows he will get his chances on the return to break serve and I expect that will help him win a tight match 76, 64.
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Victor Troicki: I think the favourites can make it a clean sweep of wins in the Finals to be played on Saturday and I like their chances to all cover the spreads that have been asked of them. Grigor Dimitrov is looking to recover from a disappointing 2015 season by putting this title away and giving him some momentum to take into the Australian Open which begins in a couple of days.
2015 was arguably a better year for Victor Troicki than it was for Dimitrov as he recovered his World Ranking following an enforced lay off from the Tour thanks to failing a drug test. In actual fact he simply asked to miss a day due to feeling unwell before doing the test a day later, but that didn't matter and he was forced off the Tour.
Both have had to battle the weather as well as their opponents to get through to this Final and I think Dimitrov may have an edge when it comes to physical well-being. Troicki had to battle through the distance in his Quarter Final and Semi Final which was played on Friday, while Dimitrov just had to put the finishing touches to his own Quarter Final win before winning his Semi Final with room to spare.
These two players met last week in Brisbane and Dimitrov won a three set match which was close for the first couple of sets. I think he is the better player and his physical fitness looks like it will be in a superior position to Troicki's in this Final and I think it might be a little 'easier' than last week as he wins this one 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Eugenie Bouchard - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-4, + 5.92 Units (24 Units Staked, + 24.67% Yield)
Wednesday, 13 January 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (January 14th)
The Australian Open Qualifiers began on Wednesday and it was a good day for the likes of Dan Evans and James Ward who won their first match on the road to the main draw.
Getting into the main draw of a Grand Slam through the Qualifiers is some tough work and there is still plenty for both Evans and Ward to do if they are to make it. However, they have to be happy with straight sets win, particularly Evans who beat the Number 1 Seeded player in the Qualifiers, and getting a little more rest in the legs could be a key for the next few days in what are usually tough conditions in Melbourne.
It wasn't just a good day for some of the Qualifiers in action, but also for the picks I made on Wednesday which have improved the weekly totals. A good positive start to the 2016 season was what I was looking for after the end of 2015 and hopefully that can be built upon through the rest of the month at the first Grand Slam of the year.
Not giving too much back is the key for the rest of this week which sees the tournaments concluded on Saturday, while the draw for the Australian Open main draw is now just a couple of days away from being revealed.
The idea at this moment is that the outright picks will go live on Sunday morning, but I am hopeful that it will be earlier than that and I can then pop out the Day 1 Picks at some point on Sunday afternoon.
Things can change though and I do have a busy weekend so hopefully I can get those out before my own times set.
Eugenie Bouchard v Camila Giorgi: If you had told me at the beginning of 2015 that in twelve months time Eugenie Bouchard would enter a tournament where she would be unseeded and face Camila Giorgi as the Number 2 Seed, I would never have believed you. However, the Canadian went through the most difficult year of her career to date with injuries and a loss of form affecting her game, but 2016 has opened with some signs that Bouchard will make a significant move back up the World Rankings.
I was never as high on Bouchard as some of the 'experts' out there, but even I know that her current World Number 48 Ranking is far below where she should be. It was a tough season for Bouchard as she dealt with a lot of criticism for the first time and really struggled under the weight of expectation that had been heaped on her shoulders as the heir apparent to Maria Sharapova at the top of the women's game.
Bouchard is still young and I expect her to come again, while a second consecutive Quarter Final run in preparation for the Australian Open will build some confidence. I expect Bouchard to go even further as she faces the erratic Camila Giorgi who can be unplayable at times, but struggles with her consistency as she has little margin for error in the way she plays the game.
At times I have looked at Giorgi as more than capable of reaching the top 20 of the World Rankings, while others may feel she has the potential to go even higher. Her issue is reining in her game when beginning to makes some errors, but that has not been something Giorgi has been able to do on the court.
While I can see her have more than a couple of moments in the match, I am looking for Bouchard to just batten down the hatches when that happens and eventually gain control of the match. It wouldn't surprise me if this goes the distance, but I think Bouchard goes a step further than in Shenzhen last week and wins this match to move into the Semi Final.
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Alexandr Dolgopolov: A second consecutive Quarter Final to open the 2016 season would certainly have been something that Grigor Dimitrov will appreciate as he looks to erase what was a disappointing 2015 year for him. Last week it took Roger Federer to end his run, albeit in a tight match, but Dimitrov should have a much better opportunity to move forward against Alexandr Dolgopolov.
You can't take anything away from the talent that Dolgopolov clearly has- he can hit almost any shot he likes, but that also means his decision making can let him down, while Dolgopolov is as erratic as they come.
The Ukrainian is back up to World Number 36 in the Rankings, but his form fluctuates all the time even if he has had a couple of decent looking wins this week. If Dolgopolov is 'on', he can be very, very difficult to play even for the very best players in the world, but far too often he doesn't reach the levels he has shown fleetingly and I think Dimitrov is too good for him in this Quarter Final.
A difference between these players is that Dolgopolov never seems too far away from throwing in an absolute shocker of a service game. That has been an issue for Dimitrov at times too, but Dolgopolov's slashing style and sometimes questionable decision making when it comes to shot selection has given the Bulgarian the slight edge in previous matches between them.
I believe that will be the case again as Dimitrov battles to a 63, 46, 64 win.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games v Fabio Fognini: The layers were expecting a very tight match between Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Philipp Kohlschreiber in the Second Round in Auckland, but the Frenchman showed he is ready for a big 2016 season. I certainly expected it to be closer than it was as Tsonga was dominant behind serve and earned enough joy from the Kohlschreiber delivery to come through in relative ease over two sets.
Now he moves into the Quarter Final where he faces the enigmatic Italian Fabio Fognini who can equally frustrate viewers as well as he can have them drop their jaws in awe of the tennis he produces. There have been some very good matches played by Fognini over the last couple of seasons and he has had considerable success on the Doubles circuit with Simone Bolelli too, but far too often he flatters to deceive.
Tsonga won't mind the match up as he has won all three previous matches and has a serve that can pick up cheap points when they are needed. On the other hand, Fognini is never too far from a meltdown behind his own serve which is much more difficult to redeem on the hard and grass courts compared with the clay courts where Fognini is at his most comfortable.
You can't always predict what you are going to get from the Tsonga return as that remains a big weakness in his game, but when the Frenchman has his eye in he can be tough to stop. Tsonga looked solid enough in his performance against Kohlschreiber to think he can put the Fognini delivery under pressure and I think that will result in a similar win for Tsonga as he had in the Second Round and also a place in the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Eugenie Bouchard @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-1, + 8.64 Units (14 Units Staked, + 61.71% Yield)
Getting into the main draw of a Grand Slam through the Qualifiers is some tough work and there is still plenty for both Evans and Ward to do if they are to make it. However, they have to be happy with straight sets win, particularly Evans who beat the Number 1 Seeded player in the Qualifiers, and getting a little more rest in the legs could be a key for the next few days in what are usually tough conditions in Melbourne.
It wasn't just a good day for some of the Qualifiers in action, but also for the picks I made on Wednesday which have improved the weekly totals. A good positive start to the 2016 season was what I was looking for after the end of 2015 and hopefully that can be built upon through the rest of the month at the first Grand Slam of the year.
Not giving too much back is the key for the rest of this week which sees the tournaments concluded on Saturday, while the draw for the Australian Open main draw is now just a couple of days away from being revealed.
The idea at this moment is that the outright picks will go live on Sunday morning, but I am hopeful that it will be earlier than that and I can then pop out the Day 1 Picks at some point on Sunday afternoon.
Things can change though and I do have a busy weekend so hopefully I can get those out before my own times set.
Eugenie Bouchard v Camila Giorgi: If you had told me at the beginning of 2015 that in twelve months time Eugenie Bouchard would enter a tournament where she would be unseeded and face Camila Giorgi as the Number 2 Seed, I would never have believed you. However, the Canadian went through the most difficult year of her career to date with injuries and a loss of form affecting her game, but 2016 has opened with some signs that Bouchard will make a significant move back up the World Rankings.
I was never as high on Bouchard as some of the 'experts' out there, but even I know that her current World Number 48 Ranking is far below where she should be. It was a tough season for Bouchard as she dealt with a lot of criticism for the first time and really struggled under the weight of expectation that had been heaped on her shoulders as the heir apparent to Maria Sharapova at the top of the women's game.
Bouchard is still young and I expect her to come again, while a second consecutive Quarter Final run in preparation for the Australian Open will build some confidence. I expect Bouchard to go even further as she faces the erratic Camila Giorgi who can be unplayable at times, but struggles with her consistency as she has little margin for error in the way she plays the game.
At times I have looked at Giorgi as more than capable of reaching the top 20 of the World Rankings, while others may feel she has the potential to go even higher. Her issue is reining in her game when beginning to makes some errors, but that has not been something Giorgi has been able to do on the court.
While I can see her have more than a couple of moments in the match, I am looking for Bouchard to just batten down the hatches when that happens and eventually gain control of the match. It wouldn't surprise me if this goes the distance, but I think Bouchard goes a step further than in Shenzhen last week and wins this match to move into the Semi Final.
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Alexandr Dolgopolov: A second consecutive Quarter Final to open the 2016 season would certainly have been something that Grigor Dimitrov will appreciate as he looks to erase what was a disappointing 2015 year for him. Last week it took Roger Federer to end his run, albeit in a tight match, but Dimitrov should have a much better opportunity to move forward against Alexandr Dolgopolov.
You can't take anything away from the talent that Dolgopolov clearly has- he can hit almost any shot he likes, but that also means his decision making can let him down, while Dolgopolov is as erratic as they come.
The Ukrainian is back up to World Number 36 in the Rankings, but his form fluctuates all the time even if he has had a couple of decent looking wins this week. If Dolgopolov is 'on', he can be very, very difficult to play even for the very best players in the world, but far too often he doesn't reach the levels he has shown fleetingly and I think Dimitrov is too good for him in this Quarter Final.
A difference between these players is that Dolgopolov never seems too far away from throwing in an absolute shocker of a service game. That has been an issue for Dimitrov at times too, but Dolgopolov's slashing style and sometimes questionable decision making when it comes to shot selection has given the Bulgarian the slight edge in previous matches between them.
I believe that will be the case again as Dimitrov battles to a 63, 46, 64 win.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games v Fabio Fognini: The layers were expecting a very tight match between Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Philipp Kohlschreiber in the Second Round in Auckland, but the Frenchman showed he is ready for a big 2016 season. I certainly expected it to be closer than it was as Tsonga was dominant behind serve and earned enough joy from the Kohlschreiber delivery to come through in relative ease over two sets.
Now he moves into the Quarter Final where he faces the enigmatic Italian Fabio Fognini who can equally frustrate viewers as well as he can have them drop their jaws in awe of the tennis he produces. There have been some very good matches played by Fognini over the last couple of seasons and he has had considerable success on the Doubles circuit with Simone Bolelli too, but far too often he flatters to deceive.
Tsonga won't mind the match up as he has won all three previous matches and has a serve that can pick up cheap points when they are needed. On the other hand, Fognini is never too far from a meltdown behind his own serve which is much more difficult to redeem on the hard and grass courts compared with the clay courts where Fognini is at his most comfortable.
You can't always predict what you are going to get from the Tsonga return as that remains a big weakness in his game, but when the Frenchman has his eye in he can be tough to stop. Tsonga looked solid enough in his performance against Kohlschreiber to think he can put the Fognini delivery under pressure and I think that will result in a similar win for Tsonga as he had in the Second Round and also a place in the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Eugenie Bouchard @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-1, + 8.64 Units (14 Units Staked, + 61.71% Yield)
Tuesday, 12 January 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (January 13th)
The first picks of the week came out very positive with all three made on Tuesday coming through as winners.
It is only a start though and there is plenty of tennis left to be played this week, although the schedule is tighter than usual as the tournaments in action look to get all the matches played by Saturday to ensure everyone has a break before the Australian Open begins on Monday.
The draw for the Men's Qualifiers have been made Down Under, but the main draws won't be put together until the end of the week (Thursday night/Friday morning for those of us in the United Kingdom).
British eyes will be interested in the Men's Qualifiers though with the likes of Dan Evans and James Ward trying to get into the main draw, but a harsh reality is that Andy Murray remains the sole genuine Grand Slam threat from Britain even if they did win the Davis Cup last season.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 2.5 games v Sara Errani: The Sydney WTA event has reached the Quarter Finals and all four of those matches are going to be played on Wednesday with that event concluding on Friday for the women.
A decent field has been put together in Sydney and that should remain competitive with the early finish meaning the winner will have plenty of time to prepare for Melbourne Park.
The first of the Quarter Finals is being played by two veterans of the Tour in Svetlana Kuznetsova and Sara Errani and I think the former is going to come through for a place in the Semi Finals. Both have had impressive wins this week after their first tournament of the season was ended a touch prematurely last week in Auckland/Brisbane respectively.
I do like the match up Kuznetsova has in this one although I would not be surprised to see a number of breaks of serve for each player. However, Kuznetsova definitely has the serve that is likely to be more secure and I can her having enough success behind the first serve to just keep Errani at bay. We know Errani's serve is a big weakness of her game and it is a matter of Kuznetsova getting over the return and forcing the break point chances that should see her come through in straight sets.
It has been a match up Kuznetsova has enjoyed in the past although it has been a long time since they have played one another since their meeting in Tokyo 2013. However, the bigger hitting of Kuznetsova should see her earn enough chances to win this match with Errani and I like her coming through 64, 64 for a Semi Final place.
Sam Stosur - 3.5 games v Monica Puig: This is a rare position for Sam Stosur to be in after she made it through to the Quarter Finals in Sydney and I have to say that the Australian has got to be happy with the opponent next up for her in Monica Puig. That is no disrespect to Puig who had a very special win in the Second Round, but this has been a terrible match up for her in the past and the Stosur serve was in good form on Tuesday.
The serve has posed a big problem for Puig against Stosur and the past four matches between the players has shown that with Puig's best performance seeing her win 35% of the points against the Australian's serve. That first match came at the French Open in 2014 and the three subsequent matches has seen Puig win a lower and lower percentage of points against the Stosur serve (35%-33%-28%-22%).
It might have something to do with Puig's aggression as the Stosur serve can be difficult to attack and another poor returning display is only going to play into the home favourite's hands. Asking Puig to keep her unforced errors in check is not always a productive way to go about things and Stosur has to be confident having won all eight previous sets against Puig and dropping eight games in total being her 'worst' performance.
That did come in their last match in Hong Kong towards the end of last season, but Stosur was very much in control of that one and could have earned at least a couple more breaks of serve than she did. I think Stosur will use her serve to keep the scoreboard pressure on Puig in this one and I believe she will earn a break more in each set to come through 64, 63 and reach her first Semi Final in Sydney since her first appearance here in 2005.
David Ferrer - 5.5 games v Matthew Barton: Over the years, David Ferrer has enjoyed significant success in Auckland in preparation for the Australian Open. After a poor showing in Doha, where he was defending the title he won to open 2015, Ferrer has taken a Wild Card into Auckland to get some matches under his belt before the first Grand Slam of the season begins.
The Wild Card put Ferrer into the tournament as the Number 1 Seed which means he received a bye in the First Round and I think he will have a distinct advantage in this Second Round match against Matthew Barton. Credit the Australian for coming through the Qualifiers and then winning a First Round match, especially as the last two wins have come against Denis Kudla and Steve Johnson, but Barton will also know this is a big step up for him.
It hasn't really happened for Barton so far in his career but the last two wins will give him plenty of confidence to take into this Second Round match. Barton will look to get to the net to pressure Ferrer and has to take advantage of his current knowledge of the conditions the players are dealing with, but this still looks a big step up from his usual level and it is hard to see him bridge that gap.
Ferrer will give players a chance, if they are hot, because he doesn't have a dominant shot and instead looks to wear down opponents. However, I think the Spaniard is focused for a big week after the disappointment in Doha and that makes him very dangerous and even more so when considering the success he has had in Auckland in his career.
I think the first set might be close as Ferrer gets to see what Barton has to offer, but I expect a double break in the second which should lead to a 64, 62 win for the Number 1 Seed.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 1.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: This is the opening match of the season for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga whose goal has to be to break back into the top eight of the World Rankings after just missing out on the World Tour Finals in 2015.
The first three months of the season are critical for the Frenchman who didn't begin his 2015 season until Miami so the points he can earn in the coming weeks are going to help his World Ranking in the immediate future. 2015 was a little too inconsistent for Tsonga fans and they will be hoping there is still something left in the tank from a player who has suffered a number of injuries through his career and is turning 31 in a few months time.
Tsonga is not usually one for the preparation tournaments ahead of the Australian Open and this is the first time he will be playing one since winning in Doha in 2012. However, he could not have asked for a better match up than Philipp Kohlschreiber in the opening match of the 2016 season having beaten the German all eight previous times they have played one another including at the back end of last season in Metz.
Some of the matches have been very close with Kohlschreiber capable of hitting a purple patch that can knock Tsonga out of his stride at times. Kohlschreiber will have to return better than he did in his first match in Auckland against Benjamin Becker if he is going to get on the front foot here, but he has looked a player that might be coming down the mountain from his own career peak and I think Tsonga holding the mental edge is going to be key.
I actually thought Tsonga would be a bigger favourite than he has been set for this match and I think he will come through after a tight first set with a 76, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Svetlana Kuznetsova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-0, + 5.56 Units (6 Units Staked, + 92.67% Yield)
It is only a start though and there is plenty of tennis left to be played this week, although the schedule is tighter than usual as the tournaments in action look to get all the matches played by Saturday to ensure everyone has a break before the Australian Open begins on Monday.
The draw for the Men's Qualifiers have been made Down Under, but the main draws won't be put together until the end of the week (Thursday night/Friday morning for those of us in the United Kingdom).
British eyes will be interested in the Men's Qualifiers though with the likes of Dan Evans and James Ward trying to get into the main draw, but a harsh reality is that Andy Murray remains the sole genuine Grand Slam threat from Britain even if they did win the Davis Cup last season.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 2.5 games v Sara Errani: The Sydney WTA event has reached the Quarter Finals and all four of those matches are going to be played on Wednesday with that event concluding on Friday for the women.
A decent field has been put together in Sydney and that should remain competitive with the early finish meaning the winner will have plenty of time to prepare for Melbourne Park.
The first of the Quarter Finals is being played by two veterans of the Tour in Svetlana Kuznetsova and Sara Errani and I think the former is going to come through for a place in the Semi Finals. Both have had impressive wins this week after their first tournament of the season was ended a touch prematurely last week in Auckland/Brisbane respectively.
I do like the match up Kuznetsova has in this one although I would not be surprised to see a number of breaks of serve for each player. However, Kuznetsova definitely has the serve that is likely to be more secure and I can her having enough success behind the first serve to just keep Errani at bay. We know Errani's serve is a big weakness of her game and it is a matter of Kuznetsova getting over the return and forcing the break point chances that should see her come through in straight sets.
It has been a match up Kuznetsova has enjoyed in the past although it has been a long time since they have played one another since their meeting in Tokyo 2013. However, the bigger hitting of Kuznetsova should see her earn enough chances to win this match with Errani and I like her coming through 64, 64 for a Semi Final place.
Sam Stosur - 3.5 games v Monica Puig: This is a rare position for Sam Stosur to be in after she made it through to the Quarter Finals in Sydney and I have to say that the Australian has got to be happy with the opponent next up for her in Monica Puig. That is no disrespect to Puig who had a very special win in the Second Round, but this has been a terrible match up for her in the past and the Stosur serve was in good form on Tuesday.
The serve has posed a big problem for Puig against Stosur and the past four matches between the players has shown that with Puig's best performance seeing her win 35% of the points against the Australian's serve. That first match came at the French Open in 2014 and the three subsequent matches has seen Puig win a lower and lower percentage of points against the Stosur serve (35%-33%-28%-22%).
It might have something to do with Puig's aggression as the Stosur serve can be difficult to attack and another poor returning display is only going to play into the home favourite's hands. Asking Puig to keep her unforced errors in check is not always a productive way to go about things and Stosur has to be confident having won all eight previous sets against Puig and dropping eight games in total being her 'worst' performance.
That did come in their last match in Hong Kong towards the end of last season, but Stosur was very much in control of that one and could have earned at least a couple more breaks of serve than she did. I think Stosur will use her serve to keep the scoreboard pressure on Puig in this one and I believe she will earn a break more in each set to come through 64, 63 and reach her first Semi Final in Sydney since her first appearance here in 2005.
David Ferrer - 5.5 games v Matthew Barton: Over the years, David Ferrer has enjoyed significant success in Auckland in preparation for the Australian Open. After a poor showing in Doha, where he was defending the title he won to open 2015, Ferrer has taken a Wild Card into Auckland to get some matches under his belt before the first Grand Slam of the season begins.
The Wild Card put Ferrer into the tournament as the Number 1 Seed which means he received a bye in the First Round and I think he will have a distinct advantage in this Second Round match against Matthew Barton. Credit the Australian for coming through the Qualifiers and then winning a First Round match, especially as the last two wins have come against Denis Kudla and Steve Johnson, but Barton will also know this is a big step up for him.
It hasn't really happened for Barton so far in his career but the last two wins will give him plenty of confidence to take into this Second Round match. Barton will look to get to the net to pressure Ferrer and has to take advantage of his current knowledge of the conditions the players are dealing with, but this still looks a big step up from his usual level and it is hard to see him bridge that gap.
Ferrer will give players a chance, if they are hot, because he doesn't have a dominant shot and instead looks to wear down opponents. However, I think the Spaniard is focused for a big week after the disappointment in Doha and that makes him very dangerous and even more so when considering the success he has had in Auckland in his career.
I think the first set might be close as Ferrer gets to see what Barton has to offer, but I expect a double break in the second which should lead to a 64, 62 win for the Number 1 Seed.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 1.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: This is the opening match of the season for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga whose goal has to be to break back into the top eight of the World Rankings after just missing out on the World Tour Finals in 2015.
The first three months of the season are critical for the Frenchman who didn't begin his 2015 season until Miami so the points he can earn in the coming weeks are going to help his World Ranking in the immediate future. 2015 was a little too inconsistent for Tsonga fans and they will be hoping there is still something left in the tank from a player who has suffered a number of injuries through his career and is turning 31 in a few months time.
Tsonga is not usually one for the preparation tournaments ahead of the Australian Open and this is the first time he will be playing one since winning in Doha in 2012. However, he could not have asked for a better match up than Philipp Kohlschreiber in the opening match of the 2016 season having beaten the German all eight previous times they have played one another including at the back end of last season in Metz.
Some of the matches have been very close with Kohlschreiber capable of hitting a purple patch that can knock Tsonga out of his stride at times. Kohlschreiber will have to return better than he did in his first match in Auckland against Benjamin Becker if he is going to get on the front foot here, but he has looked a player that might be coming down the mountain from his own career peak and I think Tsonga holding the mental edge is going to be key.
I actually thought Tsonga would be a bigger favourite than he has been set for this match and I think he will come through after a tight first set with a 76, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Svetlana Kuznetsova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-0, + 5.56 Units (6 Units Staked, + 92.67% Yield)
Monday, 11 January 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (January 12th)
We are fast approaching the opening Grand Slam of the season so this final week before the Australian Open doesn't have too many of the contenders on the Men's side of the draw in action. That is little surprise and something we should all be accustomed to seeing considering the mental and physical drain the best of five set matches have for those players who are expecting to go deep into the draw.
That means the fields in Auckland and Sydney are not the deepest, but it is still an opportunity for vital Ranking points that can help improve the draws, and subsequently the money, that these players will earn through the rest of the season. For example, if I am Ranked just outside the top 32, I would take advantage of fields that you get the week before the Grand Slam in a bid to be Seeded when the next one rolls around.
Right now there is nothing that can stop Joao Sousa, the current World Number 33, from drawing Novak Djokovic in the First Round next week in Australia, whereas Steve Johnson, the World Number 32, knows he won't see someone like Djokovic until the Third Round at the earliest.
Now I am not suggesting Sousa would throw in the towel against Djokovic, but there is a clear difference in the potential First Round draw especially when you consider the monetary rewards the deeper you can go into a Grand Slam.
The WTA players have a different attitude to the week before a Grand Slam because they don't have an increase in sets and thus get more rest during a Slam to recover than they would in a normal week. That has meant the bigger names have got together in Sydney this week, while some of the lesser lights play in Hobart, and it is a good confidence builder for what looks an open draw on the Women's side next week.
There are some doubts about the fitness of players like Serena Williams, Simona Halep, Maria Sharapova, Garbine Muguruza and Petra Kvitova, who would all normally be the leading contenders to win the Grand Slam on offer. Perhaps that will lead to a surprise name taking the title home, although I am convinced there will be a lot of 'experts' picking Victoria Azarenka to get close to winning here once again.
Last week produced a winning one for the picks thanks to Saturday when all three picks came in to bounce back from what was an awful Friday. A positive start makes me feel better after the negative of the last four months of the 2015 season and gives me something to build upon.
I think the picks this week will be a little erratic as I missed the first two days simply because I couldn't find a right angle from the matches in play. That is likely to be the case at times this week with the Australian Open not just on the mind of the players, but also myself with motivation for those playing earlier in the week a question mark for me.
On Tuesday the schedule looks a decent one and I do think there is a potential from the picks made.
Sam Stosur - 3.5 games v Daniela Hantuchova: She might be a former Grand Slam Champion, but Sam Stosur has struggled through her career to perform to her best in front of her home fans in Australia. Another early loss at the Australian Open would be a devastating blow to a player that just wants to produce a solid run there with the window of her career beginning to close.
A couple of Fourth Round appearances have been as good as it gets for Stosur at the Australian Open, and preparation has rarely been that good as she tries to change her struggles in Sydney. Stosur did come from a set down to beat Roberta Vinci, but she has only been past the Second Round on one occasion here, although I also have to say she might not have a better chance to double that record against Daniela Hantuchova.
The latter can't be underestimated having come through three Qualifiers and she should be well rested after being the beneficiary of a 'bye' in the First Round proper. Hantuchova's wins in the Qualifiers have ended a run of seven straight losses on the Tour which spread back to last July and has seen her come close to exiting the top 100 of the World Rankings.
I have seen there is something still left in the tank for Hantuchova, but not enough to expect her to challenge the top players on the Tour. While Stosur is no longer one of those, I think her serve gives her a definite edge over a player she had beaten six times in a row albeit the last match between them coming five seasons ago.
Stosur will need to serve well and dictate things behind her first serve to earn the win here, but I think she is capable of doing that and I do believe she wins this match 64, 64.
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: One of the bigger disappointments in the Grand Slams last season has to have been World Number 11 Karolina Pliskova. The Czech player was regularly seen as a dark horse at the major tournaments, but she failed to go beyond the Third Round at any of the Grand Slams, although her best effort did come at the Australian Open.
More will be expected of her this season and her win over Ana Ivanovic came in impressive fashion earlier in the week to think Pliskova could have a big impact in the next few weeks Down Under. With all the injuries and concerns in the Women's draw going into the Australian Open, maybe Pliskova can please her fans with a really solid run at the first Grand Slam of 2016.
Pliskova is expected to see off Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova who she beat in straight sets in the Fed Cup Final to end 2015 and the latter continues to struggle for consistency on the Tour. While she is likely too good for lower Ranked players, the higher Ranked ones can deal with the power Pavlyuchenkova brings to the court and return that with interest.
The Russian can become very erratic with her groundstrokes and quickly move from the sublime to the ridiculous and I think some of that is down to her stamina. Bad decision making might actually be because Pavlyuchenkova can't get involved in the longer, drawn out exchanges, although that shouldn't be an issue against Pliskova who will fight fire with fire of her own.
However, I think the Pliskova serve is a little more consistent of the two and I think she has a little more emotional control when things go against her which can be a huge edge. She won both meetings with Pavlyuchenkova in 2015 without dropping a set and I think Pliskova backs up an impressive win over Ivanovic with a 64, 63 win here.
Nicolas Mahut v Adrian Mannarino: Two Frenchmen meet in the First Round in Sydney and they have come into this tournament in contrasting ways. While Nicolas Mahut was beaten early in Brisbane and had to fight through a couple of Qualifiers to get into the main draw, Adrian Mannarino was winning a Challenger on a French owned Island in the Pacific ahead of travelling to this event.
The long week potentially has taken a toll on Mannarino, but I am surprised he is a clear favourite to win which has to be based on a successful week in Noumea. The competition level was not really befitting someone as high as Number 44 in the World Rankings and he has to get over the mental side of being 5-1 down in the head to head to Mahut.
That alone isn't enough for me to think the wrong player is favoured, but Mahut won both matches in 2015 with some relative ease and also is used to the conditions in Sydney thanks to his two wins here in the Qualifiers. Mannarino will have had time to get some practice out there, but I think it can be difficult to build a rhythm against a player like Mahut who will attack the net and look to pressurise his opponent into making mistakes.
The lefty serve can give players problems, but I think Mahut has the bigger serve which gives him a few cheaper points. The last match played between these two was actually fairly close with a couple of points here and there making the difference, but I think Mahut does have the edge as long as his first serve is producing the fire it can and I think he is worth chancing as the underdog to spring the surprise.
MY PICKS: Sam Stosur - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Nicolas Mahut @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
That means the fields in Auckland and Sydney are not the deepest, but it is still an opportunity for vital Ranking points that can help improve the draws, and subsequently the money, that these players will earn through the rest of the season. For example, if I am Ranked just outside the top 32, I would take advantage of fields that you get the week before the Grand Slam in a bid to be Seeded when the next one rolls around.
Right now there is nothing that can stop Joao Sousa, the current World Number 33, from drawing Novak Djokovic in the First Round next week in Australia, whereas Steve Johnson, the World Number 32, knows he won't see someone like Djokovic until the Third Round at the earliest.
Now I am not suggesting Sousa would throw in the towel against Djokovic, but there is a clear difference in the potential First Round draw especially when you consider the monetary rewards the deeper you can go into a Grand Slam.
The WTA players have a different attitude to the week before a Grand Slam because they don't have an increase in sets and thus get more rest during a Slam to recover than they would in a normal week. That has meant the bigger names have got together in Sydney this week, while some of the lesser lights play in Hobart, and it is a good confidence builder for what looks an open draw on the Women's side next week.
There are some doubts about the fitness of players like Serena Williams, Simona Halep, Maria Sharapova, Garbine Muguruza and Petra Kvitova, who would all normally be the leading contenders to win the Grand Slam on offer. Perhaps that will lead to a surprise name taking the title home, although I am convinced there will be a lot of 'experts' picking Victoria Azarenka to get close to winning here once again.
Last week produced a winning one for the picks thanks to Saturday when all three picks came in to bounce back from what was an awful Friday. A positive start makes me feel better after the negative of the last four months of the 2015 season and gives me something to build upon.
I think the picks this week will be a little erratic as I missed the first two days simply because I couldn't find a right angle from the matches in play. That is likely to be the case at times this week with the Australian Open not just on the mind of the players, but also myself with motivation for those playing earlier in the week a question mark for me.
On Tuesday the schedule looks a decent one and I do think there is a potential from the picks made.
Sam Stosur - 3.5 games v Daniela Hantuchova: She might be a former Grand Slam Champion, but Sam Stosur has struggled through her career to perform to her best in front of her home fans in Australia. Another early loss at the Australian Open would be a devastating blow to a player that just wants to produce a solid run there with the window of her career beginning to close.
A couple of Fourth Round appearances have been as good as it gets for Stosur at the Australian Open, and preparation has rarely been that good as she tries to change her struggles in Sydney. Stosur did come from a set down to beat Roberta Vinci, but she has only been past the Second Round on one occasion here, although I also have to say she might not have a better chance to double that record against Daniela Hantuchova.
The latter can't be underestimated having come through three Qualifiers and she should be well rested after being the beneficiary of a 'bye' in the First Round proper. Hantuchova's wins in the Qualifiers have ended a run of seven straight losses on the Tour which spread back to last July and has seen her come close to exiting the top 100 of the World Rankings.
I have seen there is something still left in the tank for Hantuchova, but not enough to expect her to challenge the top players on the Tour. While Stosur is no longer one of those, I think her serve gives her a definite edge over a player she had beaten six times in a row albeit the last match between them coming five seasons ago.
Stosur will need to serve well and dictate things behind her first serve to earn the win here, but I think she is capable of doing that and I do believe she wins this match 64, 64.
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: One of the bigger disappointments in the Grand Slams last season has to have been World Number 11 Karolina Pliskova. The Czech player was regularly seen as a dark horse at the major tournaments, but she failed to go beyond the Third Round at any of the Grand Slams, although her best effort did come at the Australian Open.
More will be expected of her this season and her win over Ana Ivanovic came in impressive fashion earlier in the week to think Pliskova could have a big impact in the next few weeks Down Under. With all the injuries and concerns in the Women's draw going into the Australian Open, maybe Pliskova can please her fans with a really solid run at the first Grand Slam of 2016.
Pliskova is expected to see off Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova who she beat in straight sets in the Fed Cup Final to end 2015 and the latter continues to struggle for consistency on the Tour. While she is likely too good for lower Ranked players, the higher Ranked ones can deal with the power Pavlyuchenkova brings to the court and return that with interest.
The Russian can become very erratic with her groundstrokes and quickly move from the sublime to the ridiculous and I think some of that is down to her stamina. Bad decision making might actually be because Pavlyuchenkova can't get involved in the longer, drawn out exchanges, although that shouldn't be an issue against Pliskova who will fight fire with fire of her own.
However, I think the Pliskova serve is a little more consistent of the two and I think she has a little more emotional control when things go against her which can be a huge edge. She won both meetings with Pavlyuchenkova in 2015 without dropping a set and I think Pliskova backs up an impressive win over Ivanovic with a 64, 63 win here.
Nicolas Mahut v Adrian Mannarino: Two Frenchmen meet in the First Round in Sydney and they have come into this tournament in contrasting ways. While Nicolas Mahut was beaten early in Brisbane and had to fight through a couple of Qualifiers to get into the main draw, Adrian Mannarino was winning a Challenger on a French owned Island in the Pacific ahead of travelling to this event.
The long week potentially has taken a toll on Mannarino, but I am surprised he is a clear favourite to win which has to be based on a successful week in Noumea. The competition level was not really befitting someone as high as Number 44 in the World Rankings and he has to get over the mental side of being 5-1 down in the head to head to Mahut.
That alone isn't enough for me to think the wrong player is favoured, but Mahut won both matches in 2015 with some relative ease and also is used to the conditions in Sydney thanks to his two wins here in the Qualifiers. Mannarino will have had time to get some practice out there, but I think it can be difficult to build a rhythm against a player like Mahut who will attack the net and look to pressurise his opponent into making mistakes.
The lefty serve can give players problems, but I think Mahut has the bigger serve which gives him a few cheaper points. The last match played between these two was actually fairly close with a couple of points here and there making the difference, but I think Mahut does have the edge as long as his first serve is producing the fire it can and I think he is worth chancing as the underdog to spring the surprise.
MY PICKS: Sam Stosur - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Nicolas Mahut @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Final: + 1.78 Units (32 Units Staked, + 5.56% Yield)
Season 2016: + 1.78 Units (32 Units Staked, + 5.56% Yield)
Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2016: + 1.78 Units (32 Units Staked, + 5.56% Yield)
Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Wednesday, 8 January 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (January 9th)
It has been a terrible week for my picks, not out of bad luck but because I have made bad picks, and that is a real disappointment. I have perhaps read too much into some matches and chosen to avoid players, but then haven't let my nagging doubts stop me picking others.
It's not been smart on my part, but I hope I have cleansed my mind to a point and I can get back on track. At least Philipp Kohlschreiber has moved through to the Quarter Final in Auckland as my one outright pick of the week, even if he is facing John Isner in that match who is the second favourite to win this tournament.
Roberto Bautista-Agut v Jack Sock: This Quarter Final is probably a surprising one to many fans, especially with both Roberto Bautista-Agut and Jack Sock coming through against seeded players.
I have been impressed with the way Bautista-Agut has come through the draw this week and I think he is going to be the stronger player of the two in this Quarter Final, while Jack Sock is coming off a big surprise win over Tommy Haas yesterday.
Much like a lot of the Spaniards on the Tour, Bautista-Agut is a decent returner and I think he can make Sock work hard to win his points, while he has also transferred his game on to the hard courts with decent effect.
Of course, the hard courts will be the favoured surface for Sock, but he hasn't got the same returning game as Bautista-Agut and that could prove to be the difference in what looks a close match. I like the Spaniard to come through, possibly in three sets.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: I may think David Ferrer is going to slip somewhat from the standards he has set over the last few years, but you can't ignore the domination he has experienced in Auckland.
I think this match up is also one that he should still enjoy as he faces his fellow Spaniard, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, on the hard courts where both will play a similar brand of tennis. However, it is clear that Ferrer has the edge when it comes to consistency and will likely win more of the points in extended rallies and that should send him through to the Semi Final with a decent win under his belt.
They haven't played one another for around 30 months, while Garcia-Lopez has had a couple of tough matches already this week. That could tell when this match gets going as the points are unlikely to be short and I do think Ferrer comes through 64, 63.
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games v Tsvetana Pironkova: I was impressed with the way Tsvetana Pironkova dealt with Sara Errani in the Quarter Final yesterday, but it is a big ask for the Bulgarian to back that win up against Petra Kvitova with the latter in the form that she is in.
Winning all 3 matches at the Hopman Cup has clearly had a positive effect on Kvitova as she looks to get back to being a contender at the Grand Slam level after a down year in 2013. There were too many inconsistencies in the Kvitova game, but she has started off much stronger with the serve working and forcing her opponents under pressure.
There have been plenty of 61 and 62 sets for Kvitova to feast on and she has the power to force Pironkova back and not let her get involved in comfortable rallies as Errani did at times yesterday. I expect the Czech player to have success against the Pironkova serve and as long as Kvitova keeps serving in the manner she has been, I think she comes through fairly comfortably with a 62, 64 win.
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Madison Keys: About the only thing I got right yesterday was that Madison Keys wouldn't beat Bethanie Mattek-Sands, but even that was because of a retirement from Mattek-Sands early in the first set.
Now Keys has reached this Semi Final against Angelique Kerber and I have to say I am going to go against the young American again, although women's tennis can be tough to see this spreads covered if the player backed is struggling with their serve.
For the most part, Kerber has been serving well enough to think she can come through this match fairly comfortably as she will force Keys to hit plenty of shots, while also quickly changing from defence to attack to catch the younger player off-guard.
Keber must serve well, that will be key to this spread, but she has been solid enough behind that shot to think she can come through 64, 63.
MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista-Agut @ 1.80 Stan James (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-7, - 7.42 Units (13 Units Staked, - 57.1% Yield)
It's not been smart on my part, but I hope I have cleansed my mind to a point and I can get back on track. At least Philipp Kohlschreiber has moved through to the Quarter Final in Auckland as my one outright pick of the week, even if he is facing John Isner in that match who is the second favourite to win this tournament.
Roberto Bautista-Agut v Jack Sock: This Quarter Final is probably a surprising one to many fans, especially with both Roberto Bautista-Agut and Jack Sock coming through against seeded players.
I have been impressed with the way Bautista-Agut has come through the draw this week and I think he is going to be the stronger player of the two in this Quarter Final, while Jack Sock is coming off a big surprise win over Tommy Haas yesterday.
Much like a lot of the Spaniards on the Tour, Bautista-Agut is a decent returner and I think he can make Sock work hard to win his points, while he has also transferred his game on to the hard courts with decent effect.
Of course, the hard courts will be the favoured surface for Sock, but he hasn't got the same returning game as Bautista-Agut and that could prove to be the difference in what looks a close match. I like the Spaniard to come through, possibly in three sets.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: I may think David Ferrer is going to slip somewhat from the standards he has set over the last few years, but you can't ignore the domination he has experienced in Auckland.
I think this match up is also one that he should still enjoy as he faces his fellow Spaniard, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, on the hard courts where both will play a similar brand of tennis. However, it is clear that Ferrer has the edge when it comes to consistency and will likely win more of the points in extended rallies and that should send him through to the Semi Final with a decent win under his belt.
They haven't played one another for around 30 months, while Garcia-Lopez has had a couple of tough matches already this week. That could tell when this match gets going as the points are unlikely to be short and I do think Ferrer comes through 64, 63.
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games v Tsvetana Pironkova: I was impressed with the way Tsvetana Pironkova dealt with Sara Errani in the Quarter Final yesterday, but it is a big ask for the Bulgarian to back that win up against Petra Kvitova with the latter in the form that she is in.
Winning all 3 matches at the Hopman Cup has clearly had a positive effect on Kvitova as she looks to get back to being a contender at the Grand Slam level after a down year in 2013. There were too many inconsistencies in the Kvitova game, but she has started off much stronger with the serve working and forcing her opponents under pressure.
There have been plenty of 61 and 62 sets for Kvitova to feast on and she has the power to force Pironkova back and not let her get involved in comfortable rallies as Errani did at times yesterday. I expect the Czech player to have success against the Pironkova serve and as long as Kvitova keeps serving in the manner she has been, I think she comes through fairly comfortably with a 62, 64 win.
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Madison Keys: About the only thing I got right yesterday was that Madison Keys wouldn't beat Bethanie Mattek-Sands, but even that was because of a retirement from Mattek-Sands early in the first set.
Now Keys has reached this Semi Final against Angelique Kerber and I have to say I am going to go against the young American again, although women's tennis can be tough to see this spreads covered if the player backed is struggling with their serve.
For the most part, Kerber has been serving well enough to think she can come through this match fairly comfortably as she will force Keys to hit plenty of shots, while also quickly changing from defence to attack to catch the younger player off-guard.
Keber must serve well, that will be key to this spread, but she has been solid enough behind that shot to think she can come through 64, 63.
MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista-Agut @ 1.80 Stan James (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-7, - 7.42 Units (13 Units Staked, - 57.1% Yield)
Tuesday, 7 January 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (January 8th)
My biggest problem with the Tour at the beginning of a new season is trying to find a way to watch the matches, particularly with the early tournaments that are not necessarily covered very well. That means I have only see bits and pieces of the action so far this week, but at least I can get up a little earlier these days and watch whatever I have recorded during my sleep.
That will be the case for the early matches next week at the Australian Open too, although hopefully the majority of the courts will be covered by Eurosport so I shouldn't miss too much of the action. Of course, it does mean that the 'big' players are shown more than the competitive matches without the ability to switch on the other courts until I get up, but that's the way it goes I suppose.
Yesterday proved to be a mixed bag of results which has ended with a slight loss for the day. Hopefully these early struggles will be replaced soon enough by a good run of form, but I was least happy to see Philipp Kohlschreiber make it through to the Second Round in Auckland.
Sam Stosur - 4.5 games v Kristina Mladenovic: Backing Sam Stosur in Australia has proved to be a poor choice over the last few years for her fans but this looks a match up that she should still be able to take advantage of and move through to the Quarter Finals in Hobart.
I don't what it is about being back home, but it hasn't sat well with Stosur who lost 3 of her 4 matches in this portion of the season last year, while she has begun this year with 3 straight losses at the Hopman Cup in Singles action.
The serve is still her strength though and I think that is a key difference between her and the up and coming Kristina Mladenovic.
Mladenovic is moving up the Rankings on the WTA Tour and has shown her ability when pushing Maria Sharapova in a loss at Wimbledon, while the hard courts are also her favourite surface. However, she has found herself coming up a little short when it comes to the best players on the Tour as she builds experience and I think Stosur will have opportunities to break the serve as long as she can relieve the pressure with easy holds of serve.
The form in Australia is one concern for Stosur backers, while Mladenovic is capable of serving very well, but I still believe the home favourite comes through with a 64, 63 win.
Sara Errani - 4.5 games v Tsvetana Pironkova: On first glance, this could look like a big spread for Sara Errani to cover, but she is playing the erratic Tsvetana Pironkova who has played plenty of tennis already this week as she has come through the qualifiers.
I can see why Pironkova has dropped out of the top 100 in the World Rankings as she had a terrible year in 2013 and I still don't believe she is consistent enough to see off someone like Sara Errani that makes life so difficult for her opponents.
Errani will look to force Pironkova to play closer to the lines and that can lead to mistakes, although I do think the latter also has the power to at least cause some trouble when it comes to the Italian holding serve. That is the aspect that worries me a little in this one, but Errani has played well so far this week and I do think she can come through with a 62, 64 win.
Bethanie Mattek-Sands v Madison Keys: If you take away the image of a girl playing in a wild range of clothing, Bethanie Mattek-Sands is actually a pretty decent Singles player that has shown signs of improving over the last twelve months.
I think she can get the better of her compatriot, Madison Keys, in this Quarter Final where the layers are very unsure as to who will win. Mattek-Sands has the ability to at least pressure the Keys serve, the youngster's big weapon, and that could give her the chance to beat her here.
If Mattek-Sands can continue winning points on the Keys serve in the manner she has in the last two matches between these two, she will give herself every chance to win this match, but she has to continue serving well.
Coming through the qualifiers can be tough as the tennis does catch up with you with this tournament being played through quickly to get it done before the Australian Open begins, but Mattek-Sands has shown enough to think she can deal with it. She reached the Semi Finals in Stuttgart from that situation last year and I think she can at least match that performance with a tight win in this one.
Bernard Tomic - 4.5 games v Blaz Kavcic: I was very surprised to see Blaz Kavcic come through his match with Jarkko Nieminen yesterday in straight sets, but he will have to serve better if he is to beat Bernard Tomic here.
In a career that has yet to really take off, Bernard Tomic did win the title in Sydney twelve months ago and got off to a flyer in the defence of that title with a comprehensive win over Marcel Granollers.
Tomic has a decent serve, although I think there is room for improvement considering how tall he is, and has the grind it out style that can cause plenty of problems for those players outside of the top 100. He will have to deal with a confident Kavcic who has now won 4 matches in a row here after coming through the qualifiers, but it is a big ask for the Slovenian in front of a crowd that will be firmly behind Tomic.
The spread is perhaps a tad high considering the brittle nature of Tomic's game at times, but I think the home support will focus him enough to come through 63, 64.
MY PICKS: Sam Stosur - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Bethanie Mattek-Sands @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Bernard Tomic - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-3, - 0.42 Units (7 Units Staked, - 6% Yield)
That will be the case for the early matches next week at the Australian Open too, although hopefully the majority of the courts will be covered by Eurosport so I shouldn't miss too much of the action. Of course, it does mean that the 'big' players are shown more than the competitive matches without the ability to switch on the other courts until I get up, but that's the way it goes I suppose.
Yesterday proved to be a mixed bag of results which has ended with a slight loss for the day. Hopefully these early struggles will be replaced soon enough by a good run of form, but I was least happy to see Philipp Kohlschreiber make it through to the Second Round in Auckland.
Sam Stosur - 4.5 games v Kristina Mladenovic: Backing Sam Stosur in Australia has proved to be a poor choice over the last few years for her fans but this looks a match up that she should still be able to take advantage of and move through to the Quarter Finals in Hobart.
I don't what it is about being back home, but it hasn't sat well with Stosur who lost 3 of her 4 matches in this portion of the season last year, while she has begun this year with 3 straight losses at the Hopman Cup in Singles action.
The serve is still her strength though and I think that is a key difference between her and the up and coming Kristina Mladenovic.
Mladenovic is moving up the Rankings on the WTA Tour and has shown her ability when pushing Maria Sharapova in a loss at Wimbledon, while the hard courts are also her favourite surface. However, she has found herself coming up a little short when it comes to the best players on the Tour as she builds experience and I think Stosur will have opportunities to break the serve as long as she can relieve the pressure with easy holds of serve.
The form in Australia is one concern for Stosur backers, while Mladenovic is capable of serving very well, but I still believe the home favourite comes through with a 64, 63 win.
Sara Errani - 4.5 games v Tsvetana Pironkova: On first glance, this could look like a big spread for Sara Errani to cover, but she is playing the erratic Tsvetana Pironkova who has played plenty of tennis already this week as she has come through the qualifiers.
I can see why Pironkova has dropped out of the top 100 in the World Rankings as she had a terrible year in 2013 and I still don't believe she is consistent enough to see off someone like Sara Errani that makes life so difficult for her opponents.
Errani will look to force Pironkova to play closer to the lines and that can lead to mistakes, although I do think the latter also has the power to at least cause some trouble when it comes to the Italian holding serve. That is the aspect that worries me a little in this one, but Errani has played well so far this week and I do think she can come through with a 62, 64 win.
Bethanie Mattek-Sands v Madison Keys: If you take away the image of a girl playing in a wild range of clothing, Bethanie Mattek-Sands is actually a pretty decent Singles player that has shown signs of improving over the last twelve months.
I think she can get the better of her compatriot, Madison Keys, in this Quarter Final where the layers are very unsure as to who will win. Mattek-Sands has the ability to at least pressure the Keys serve, the youngster's big weapon, and that could give her the chance to beat her here.
If Mattek-Sands can continue winning points on the Keys serve in the manner she has in the last two matches between these two, she will give herself every chance to win this match, but she has to continue serving well.
Coming through the qualifiers can be tough as the tennis does catch up with you with this tournament being played through quickly to get it done before the Australian Open begins, but Mattek-Sands has shown enough to think she can deal with it. She reached the Semi Finals in Stuttgart from that situation last year and I think she can at least match that performance with a tight win in this one.
Bernard Tomic - 4.5 games v Blaz Kavcic: I was very surprised to see Blaz Kavcic come through his match with Jarkko Nieminen yesterday in straight sets, but he will have to serve better if he is to beat Bernard Tomic here.
In a career that has yet to really take off, Bernard Tomic did win the title in Sydney twelve months ago and got off to a flyer in the defence of that title with a comprehensive win over Marcel Granollers.
Tomic has a decent serve, although I think there is room for improvement considering how tall he is, and has the grind it out style that can cause plenty of problems for those players outside of the top 100. He will have to deal with a confident Kavcic who has now won 4 matches in a row here after coming through the qualifiers, but it is a big ask for the Slovenian in front of a crowd that will be firmly behind Tomic.
The spread is perhaps a tad high considering the brittle nature of Tomic's game at times, but I think the home support will focus him enough to come through 63, 64.
MY PICKS: Sam Stosur - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Bethanie Mattek-Sands @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Bernard Tomic - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-3, - 0.42 Units (7 Units Staked, - 6% Yield)
Monday, 6 January 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (January 7th)
We are only days away from the draw for the Australian Open, but the first priority is to get the tournaments that are taking place through the bulk of their matches before that draw is to be revealed.
It can be tough predicting the way matches will flow the week before a Grand Slam as some players will be concentrating on getting into the qualifiers for that tournament, while others will want to keep as much energy in reserve to have a shot at going deep in the first Grand Slam of the season. That can make this a minefield, but can also lead to surprise winners of the titles and you can see the one outright pick I have made this week by clicking here.
Most of the biggest names in the sport on both Tours are having a rest week to get themselves ready for next week, so it was a surprise to see Juan Martin Del Potro pick this week rather than the last one to make his first appearance in the 2014 season. Del Potro is a regular dark horse to win a Grand Slam tournament outside of the usual four suspects (although some would say that number has come down to three with the struggles of Roger Federer during 2013).
There will be plenty of tennis played in the first few days of the tournament as most will come to a close on Saturday rather than Sunday to ensure everyone is ready for the Monday start at Melbourne Park.
Roberto Bautista-Agut win 2-0 v Daniel Gimeno-Traver: Two Spaniards will be meeting in the First Round in Auckland thanks to Daniel Gimeno-Traver coming through the qualifiers here to make the main draw.
Both men lost their first match of 2014, although it is Roberto Bautista-Agut that is coming off a surprise loss in Chennai where he made the Semi Finals a year ago. It was a breakout year for Bautista-Agut on the main Tour last year which began in strong fashion at that same event in India, but it will be interesting to see how he backs that up.
I saw him play a few times last year and while there were times he looked good, there were plenty of other times when Bautista-Agut looked a little out of his depth at the highest level of professional tennis. However, his game does transfer well off the clay courts onto the hard courts and I think he can tough out a win over his compatriot.
His opponent, Gimeno-Traver, continues to produce his best performances on the clay courts and snapped a 7 match losing run with his two qualifier wins here. That will have given him confidence, but I always feel his serve offers opponents chances and that can be critical on the hard courts where you may not have too many opportunities to break back.
Benoit Paire win 2-0 v Michal Przysiezny: If ever you wanted to see the reason why no one can ever back Benoit Paire with any confidence, have a look at the way he played in his defeat to Marcel Granollers last week in Chennai.
Paire couldn't do anything right in the first set that he lost 26, but recovered to get into a position where he was leading 26, 63, 51... Somehow he failed to serve the match out on TWO occasions and then lost that match in a final set tie-break which highlights the inconsistencies the Frenchman still has in his game.
So why do I like him here? Well his opponent, Michal Przysiezny is a journeyman player who is coming in off his best year on the Tour when he reached his career high Ranking of 58, but I don't feel he has the same upside as Paire. While Przysiezny is a solid player, he doesn't have a spectacular game and that will offer Paire a bit more room to dictate rallies and get on the front foot.
Even with that in mind, this will be nothing more than a small interest because I like the match up, but just can't trust Paire until he makes a consistent step up in his play.
Daniel Brands win 2-0 v Bradley Klahn: Daniel Brands is an interesting tennis player because there are many times I have watched him and thought he was distinctly average, but the German has managed to do enough to come through his match. He comes over from Doha after winning a couple of matches to get through to the Quarter Final and I think he can overcome the qualifier from the United States.
Brands has a decent serve and can put together some very good rallies, while Bradley Klahn is still developing his game as he looks to make a step up to regular competition at this level. For the main part, Klahn has remained a player that makes his trade on the Challenger circuit, but he will be looking to kick on from there as the USA struggles to find players to fill the void left by Andy Roddick and a semi-retired Mardy Fish.
The fact that Klahn is left-handed will make this a little more awkward for Brands, who has a 5-7 record against such players, but I do feel the latter is in a better place at the moment when it comes to the careers of these two players. Klahn is still developing the experience of playing at the main Tour level and I think Brands can come through this one with a couple of tight sets under his belt.
Jarkko Nieminen win 2-0 v Blaz Kavcic: Jarkko Nieminen remains a competitive player on the Tour who acts almost like a gatekeeper for some of the players trying to break in as regular players on the ATP circuit.
Nieminen is rarely on the wrong end of a real surprise result and normally can deal with players that he is expected to beat and that will be the case in Sydney where the Finn reached the Quarter Finals last season.
It is strange in a way because there is nothing really intimidating about the Nieminen game, especially as his serve is one of the weaker aspects of his game. However, he can put pressure on opponents with some spectacular tennis off the ground and that could be tough for Blaz Kavcic to deal with.
Kavcic will have to work hard to hold on to his own service games and I would favour Nieminen to win the majority of the extended rallies. It is unlikely to be straight-forward thanks to Nieminen's own serve, but I expect to see him through to the Second Round after a 64, 63 win.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Kaia Kanepi: It was Angelique Kerber's disappointing loss to Kaia Kanepi at Wimbledon last year that saw the German receive some disgusting abuse on the social network sites directed towards her. No player deserves that, but it is the way things have gone with keyboard warriors believing the law won't be able to catch up with them if they do engage in such stupid acts.
It was a tough loss for Kerber who should have won in straight sets, but she at least recovered well enough mentally to beat the same opponent convincingly at the US Open last summer. I think Kerber will be able to back that win up here as Kanepi has struggled on the faster surfaces where her limited mobility can sometimes be exposed.
That will likely be the case against a player like Kerber that is pretty effective at retrieving the ball, while also having the ability to turn defence into attack very quickly. Kerber's serve can let her down at times and made the win over Dominika Cibulkova that much more difficult in the First Round, but it was a win which she can at least build some confidence going into the next three weeks.
Kanepi has had some big weeks on the hard courts, including winning in Brisbane in 2012 and beating Kerber here in 2009, but the German is a better player these days and I like her to back up her US Open win with a 75, 64 win here.
Caroline Wozniacki - 3.5 games v Lucie Safarova: There is no doubt that Lucie Safarova could beat Caroline Wozniacki if she comes out playing her high-risk tennis with minimum mistakes. In the past, Safarova has brought that game to the fore against the Dane and won matches against her, but Safarova is coming off a down year on the hard courts and also suffered a surprise loss in Auckland last week.
Caroline Wozniacki's personal life seems to be in the perfect place with the announcement that she is engaged to Rory McIlroy and there is a chance that a positive frame of mind can pay dividends for her on the Tour this season. We have seen other players on the WTA use these positives to start winning lots of matches and Wozniacki could potentially follow suit after falling off the standards set by the top players.
To be brutally honest, Wozniacki was never at the very top of the women's game despite holding the World Number 1 Ranking and I do think she may have settled her place in the top ten a little more true to her ability. There is room for improvement if confidence is up, while her style of play can still be effective against an all-out attacking player like Safarova who struggles with the consistency that the top, top players have.
Wozniacki will look to frustrate Safarova in this one and I do think she can win this match in straight sets as long as she can stay locked in early. That is when the Czech player will look to take control while her concentration levels are good, but if she begins making mistakes, the match could become 'easier' for Wozniacki as it goes on. If she can come through the tough first set, I like Wozniacki to win this 75, 63.
MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista-Agut win 2-0 @ 2.20 Stan James (1 Unit)
Benoit Paire win 2-0 @ 2.38 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Daniel Brands win 2-0 @ 2.50 Coral (1 Unit)
Jarkko Nieminen win 2-0 @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 3.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
It can be tough predicting the way matches will flow the week before a Grand Slam as some players will be concentrating on getting into the qualifiers for that tournament, while others will want to keep as much energy in reserve to have a shot at going deep in the first Grand Slam of the season. That can make this a minefield, but can also lead to surprise winners of the titles and you can see the one outright pick I have made this week by clicking here.
Most of the biggest names in the sport on both Tours are having a rest week to get themselves ready for next week, so it was a surprise to see Juan Martin Del Potro pick this week rather than the last one to make his first appearance in the 2014 season. Del Potro is a regular dark horse to win a Grand Slam tournament outside of the usual four suspects (although some would say that number has come down to three with the struggles of Roger Federer during 2013).
There will be plenty of tennis played in the first few days of the tournament as most will come to a close on Saturday rather than Sunday to ensure everyone is ready for the Monday start at Melbourne Park.
Roberto Bautista-Agut win 2-0 v Daniel Gimeno-Traver: Two Spaniards will be meeting in the First Round in Auckland thanks to Daniel Gimeno-Traver coming through the qualifiers here to make the main draw.
Both men lost their first match of 2014, although it is Roberto Bautista-Agut that is coming off a surprise loss in Chennai where he made the Semi Finals a year ago. It was a breakout year for Bautista-Agut on the main Tour last year which began in strong fashion at that same event in India, but it will be interesting to see how he backs that up.
I saw him play a few times last year and while there were times he looked good, there were plenty of other times when Bautista-Agut looked a little out of his depth at the highest level of professional tennis. However, his game does transfer well off the clay courts onto the hard courts and I think he can tough out a win over his compatriot.
His opponent, Gimeno-Traver, continues to produce his best performances on the clay courts and snapped a 7 match losing run with his two qualifier wins here. That will have given him confidence, but I always feel his serve offers opponents chances and that can be critical on the hard courts where you may not have too many opportunities to break back.
Benoit Paire win 2-0 v Michal Przysiezny: If ever you wanted to see the reason why no one can ever back Benoit Paire with any confidence, have a look at the way he played in his defeat to Marcel Granollers last week in Chennai.
Paire couldn't do anything right in the first set that he lost 26, but recovered to get into a position where he was leading 26, 63, 51... Somehow he failed to serve the match out on TWO occasions and then lost that match in a final set tie-break which highlights the inconsistencies the Frenchman still has in his game.
So why do I like him here? Well his opponent, Michal Przysiezny is a journeyman player who is coming in off his best year on the Tour when he reached his career high Ranking of 58, but I don't feel he has the same upside as Paire. While Przysiezny is a solid player, he doesn't have a spectacular game and that will offer Paire a bit more room to dictate rallies and get on the front foot.
Even with that in mind, this will be nothing more than a small interest because I like the match up, but just can't trust Paire until he makes a consistent step up in his play.
Daniel Brands win 2-0 v Bradley Klahn: Daniel Brands is an interesting tennis player because there are many times I have watched him and thought he was distinctly average, but the German has managed to do enough to come through his match. He comes over from Doha after winning a couple of matches to get through to the Quarter Final and I think he can overcome the qualifier from the United States.
Brands has a decent serve and can put together some very good rallies, while Bradley Klahn is still developing his game as he looks to make a step up to regular competition at this level. For the main part, Klahn has remained a player that makes his trade on the Challenger circuit, but he will be looking to kick on from there as the USA struggles to find players to fill the void left by Andy Roddick and a semi-retired Mardy Fish.
The fact that Klahn is left-handed will make this a little more awkward for Brands, who has a 5-7 record against such players, but I do feel the latter is in a better place at the moment when it comes to the careers of these two players. Klahn is still developing the experience of playing at the main Tour level and I think Brands can come through this one with a couple of tight sets under his belt.
Jarkko Nieminen win 2-0 v Blaz Kavcic: Jarkko Nieminen remains a competitive player on the Tour who acts almost like a gatekeeper for some of the players trying to break in as regular players on the ATP circuit.
Nieminen is rarely on the wrong end of a real surprise result and normally can deal with players that he is expected to beat and that will be the case in Sydney where the Finn reached the Quarter Finals last season.
It is strange in a way because there is nothing really intimidating about the Nieminen game, especially as his serve is one of the weaker aspects of his game. However, he can put pressure on opponents with some spectacular tennis off the ground and that could be tough for Blaz Kavcic to deal with.
Kavcic will have to work hard to hold on to his own service games and I would favour Nieminen to win the majority of the extended rallies. It is unlikely to be straight-forward thanks to Nieminen's own serve, but I expect to see him through to the Second Round after a 64, 63 win.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Kaia Kanepi: It was Angelique Kerber's disappointing loss to Kaia Kanepi at Wimbledon last year that saw the German receive some disgusting abuse on the social network sites directed towards her. No player deserves that, but it is the way things have gone with keyboard warriors believing the law won't be able to catch up with them if they do engage in such stupid acts.
It was a tough loss for Kerber who should have won in straight sets, but she at least recovered well enough mentally to beat the same opponent convincingly at the US Open last summer. I think Kerber will be able to back that win up here as Kanepi has struggled on the faster surfaces where her limited mobility can sometimes be exposed.
That will likely be the case against a player like Kerber that is pretty effective at retrieving the ball, while also having the ability to turn defence into attack very quickly. Kerber's serve can let her down at times and made the win over Dominika Cibulkova that much more difficult in the First Round, but it was a win which she can at least build some confidence going into the next three weeks.
Kanepi has had some big weeks on the hard courts, including winning in Brisbane in 2012 and beating Kerber here in 2009, but the German is a better player these days and I like her to back up her US Open win with a 75, 64 win here.
Caroline Wozniacki - 3.5 games v Lucie Safarova: There is no doubt that Lucie Safarova could beat Caroline Wozniacki if she comes out playing her high-risk tennis with minimum mistakes. In the past, Safarova has brought that game to the fore against the Dane and won matches against her, but Safarova is coming off a down year on the hard courts and also suffered a surprise loss in Auckland last week.
Caroline Wozniacki's personal life seems to be in the perfect place with the announcement that she is engaged to Rory McIlroy and there is a chance that a positive frame of mind can pay dividends for her on the Tour this season. We have seen other players on the WTA use these positives to start winning lots of matches and Wozniacki could potentially follow suit after falling off the standards set by the top players.
To be brutally honest, Wozniacki was never at the very top of the women's game despite holding the World Number 1 Ranking and I do think she may have settled her place in the top ten a little more true to her ability. There is room for improvement if confidence is up, while her style of play can still be effective against an all-out attacking player like Safarova who struggles with the consistency that the top, top players have.
Wozniacki will look to frustrate Safarova in this one and I do think she can win this match in straight sets as long as she can stay locked in early. That is when the Czech player will look to take control while her concentration levels are good, but if she begins making mistakes, the match could become 'easier' for Wozniacki as it goes on. If she can come through the tough first set, I like Wozniacki to win this 75, 63.
MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista-Agut win 2-0 @ 2.20 Stan James (1 Unit)
Benoit Paire win 2-0 @ 2.38 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Daniel Brands win 2-0 @ 2.50 Coral (1 Unit)
Jarkko Nieminen win 2-0 @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 3.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Thursday, 10 January 2013
Tennis Picks (January 11th)
It has been a terrible week for the picks after a really good first week of the season, but that is the way it goes with the tennis season being long and arduous. You have to expect the ups and downs during the course of the season and I was just grateful that Bernard Tomic managed to stop the rot of 6 straight losing picks.
In a few hours, we will also see the draw for the first Grand Slam of the season at the Australian Open and I will look to get out a full preview and breakdown of that tournament by Saturday evening, with Sunday afternoon the time I have set aside for the picks from Day 1 which will begin at Midnight (British time).
Bernard Tomic - 2.5 games v Andreas Seppi: Bernard Tomic came through a test match against Jarkko Nieminen in the last Round and I do think he is in a great position to win this tournament ahead of the Australian Open.
I have been impressed with the more aggressive tennis that Tomic has been playing and he continues serving well, all elements that could make it tough for Andreas Seppi in this one.
Seppi was an impressive winner himself in the Quarter Final, but I think his game isn't quite big enough to trouble Tomic. They also played last week in what was a comfortable win for the young Australian and I think he can record another here to move through to the Final.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Gael Monfils: It is funny, but Gael Monfils has a 3-0 head to head record against David Ferrer, with 2 of those wins coming on the clay courts during the French Open and I am sure I am not the only one who is surprised by the success the Frenchman has had against Ferrer.
I would have guessed that Ferrer would be too consistent for Monfils, but I then think Monfils is basically the same player, but less aggressive and thus making less errors. I can't quite put my finger on why Monfils has won all 3 meetings, but I do think Ferrer can get off the mark in this one.
Monfils is still on the road to recovery from injury and he has had a couple of tough matches already this week. I think Ferrer can put some more mental pressure on Monfils and will eventually crack him and I think a 6-4, 6-3 could be on the cards.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: Agnieszka Radwanska will have a lot of momentum behind her as she gets set to begin her first Grand Slam tournament of the season and she does have a chance to win back to back tournaments to open 2013.
Radwanska will face Dominika Cibulkova, a player she has beaten in all 3 previous meetings. I respect what Cibulkova has done already this week as she has thumped Petra Kvitova, Sara Errani and Angelique Kerber all while being set as the underdog.
However, she has barely made a dent on Radwanska in previous meetings and I think the World Number 4 will be too consistent for her and eventually that will tell on the scoreboard in a 6-4, 6-2 win.
MY PICKS: Bernard Tomic - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-6, - 9.3 Units (13 Units Staked, - 71.5% Yield)
In a few hours, we will also see the draw for the first Grand Slam of the season at the Australian Open and I will look to get out a full preview and breakdown of that tournament by Saturday evening, with Sunday afternoon the time I have set aside for the picks from Day 1 which will begin at Midnight (British time).
Bernard Tomic - 2.5 games v Andreas Seppi: Bernard Tomic came through a test match against Jarkko Nieminen in the last Round and I do think he is in a great position to win this tournament ahead of the Australian Open.
I have been impressed with the more aggressive tennis that Tomic has been playing and he continues serving well, all elements that could make it tough for Andreas Seppi in this one.
Seppi was an impressive winner himself in the Quarter Final, but I think his game isn't quite big enough to trouble Tomic. They also played last week in what was a comfortable win for the young Australian and I think he can record another here to move through to the Final.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Gael Monfils: It is funny, but Gael Monfils has a 3-0 head to head record against David Ferrer, with 2 of those wins coming on the clay courts during the French Open and I am sure I am not the only one who is surprised by the success the Frenchman has had against Ferrer.
I would have guessed that Ferrer would be too consistent for Monfils, but I then think Monfils is basically the same player, but less aggressive and thus making less errors. I can't quite put my finger on why Monfils has won all 3 meetings, but I do think Ferrer can get off the mark in this one.
Monfils is still on the road to recovery from injury and he has had a couple of tough matches already this week. I think Ferrer can put some more mental pressure on Monfils and will eventually crack him and I think a 6-4, 6-3 could be on the cards.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: Agnieszka Radwanska will have a lot of momentum behind her as she gets set to begin her first Grand Slam tournament of the season and she does have a chance to win back to back tournaments to open 2013.
Radwanska will face Dominika Cibulkova, a player she has beaten in all 3 previous meetings. I respect what Cibulkova has done already this week as she has thumped Petra Kvitova, Sara Errani and Angelique Kerber all while being set as the underdog.
However, she has barely made a dent on Radwanska in previous meetings and I think the World Number 4 will be too consistent for her and eventually that will tell on the scoreboard in a 6-4, 6-2 win.
MY PICKS: Bernard Tomic - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-6, - 9.3 Units (13 Units Staked, - 71.5% Yield)
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