It has been an 'almost' kind of week for the tennis picks with a little misfortune at critical moments costing me the chance to really start kicking on.
Ryan Harrison missing a cover on Wednesday by a single game despite going into a third set was disappointing, while yesterday I picked the Steve Johnson-John Isner match to go at least eleven games in the first set.
Unfortunately Isner was broken in the eighth game of the set when both had been comfortable on serve and that only led to frustration when thinking their set two had twelve games and set three needed a tie-breaker to separate them.
I never really stood a chance backing Eugenie Bouchard as an underdog when you think of the manner in which she was beaten, but at least Joao Sousa was a very easy winner in his Quarter Final.
Jack Sock - 1.5 games v Steve Johnson: This is another battle between two of the biggest hopes for the America's men's tennis as the Australian Open as Jack Sock and Steve Johnson meet for the seventh time on the ATP Tour. You have to think both players are very much aware of what the other brings to the court and a close encounter is expected by the layers.
For the second season in a row, Sock has played really well in Auckland having reached the Final here last season before an injury meant having to pull out and go to the Australian Open carrying an issue. This time around he looks fully healthy and Sock had an impressive showing at the Hopman Cup and has carried his form through to Auckland.
Sock created an unbelievable 25 break points in his three set win over Jeremy Chardy in the Quarter Final and that returning will give him his chances against Steve Johnson. The latter had an impressive win of his own when eventually seeing off John Isner in three sets and Johnson has been serving at a high level this week which makes that battle between himself and Sock in the serve-return games fascinating to see who can take control.
It has to be said that Sock is not a slouch when it comes to his own service games, but that is definitely a department that is stronger for Johnson. However if Sock can negate some of the big first serves and get into the rallies, he will feel he can pressure Johnson enough to extract mistakes from a game that can be erratic at times.
I will be surprised if this is an easy match for either of these players and have to expect it will go into a third set. I do feel the conditions are enjoyed by both too, but Sock has past solid experiences here in Auckland and I think he can use his superior return game to just about battle past Johnson in a 75, 46, 64 win.
Victor Troicki - 1.5 games v Gilles Muller: It isn't too often that Victor Troicki has been asked to defend a title, but he is making a good effort to do that in Sydney and has to be considered the favourite of the four Semi Finalists left in the draw. This might be the toughest match he will have to negotiate when Troicki faces Gilles Muller who has battled through the three Rounds here to reach the Semi Final.
It has been far from plain sailing for Muller so far in Sydney having needed three sets to win his first two matches before winning enough of the big points to beat Pablo Cuevas in the Quarter Final. The lefty serve has been working very well so far this week and that will always make Muller a dangerous player when he is hitting his marks, but Troicki is a tall man and will expect himself to at least force the Luxembourg Number 1 to hit a few tough volleys to win his points.
The mental side of the game has always been something of an issue for Troicki at this level and how he deals with trying to get into the Muller games will likely determine the outcome of this match. Troicki isn't as battle hardened having needed to win one match to get through to the Semi Final, but he was serving pretty well in Brisbane last week. The only concern for Troicki backers has to be the host of Double Faults he has littered his matches with in Brisbane and you don't want to give Muller too many free points to make a success of a return game.
The second serve stats will likely decide the winner of this one and I do have to believe that Troicki is the superior mover on the court at this stage of their careers. I also think the Serbian has to be considered the better player once the rallies get underway and I think he can use that to get the better of this tough opponent.
Of course if Muller serves lights out it will be difficult, but I expect Troicki to get involved in enough of the return games to beat this opponent in Sydney for the second time in three seasons. I can see Troicki moving through to the Final in a 76, 64 win.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 3.5 games v Johanna Konta: A strong field had gathered for the WTA Sydney tournament in preparation for the Australian Open and the Final is going to be competed between two top ten players in Johanna Konta and Agnieszka Radwanska. Both may feel this can give them a real shot in the arm heading into the first Grand Slam of the season which looks very open in the women's draw after both Angelique Kerber and Serena Williams made stuttering starts to 2017.
Both will be keen on seeing the kind of draw they receive at the Australian Open on Friday, but first things first will be trying to take care of business in the Sydney Final. It is a chance for Konta to show how far she has been improving as a player after losing both matches to Radwanska in the last six months in fairly one sided fashion once the Pole got in front.
The last four sets competed have been won by Radwanska since Konta took a tie-breaker in the first set they played against one another and those four sets have been won for the loss of just ten games. It does seem the match up could be a problem with Radwanska's defensive abilities able to frustrate a consistent Konta who perhaps can't keep that going when she looks to up the power level to penetrate the Pole's defences.
The Konta first serve is the key for her chances in this one- it is a big enough shot that it can help the British player earn a short ball which will give her the ability to shorten the rallies and finish Radwanska off before the long, gruelling rallies can begin. The longer the rallies go, the more you would have to favour Radwanska finding a way to extract errors from Konta.
Radwanska's serve is far from the biggest on the Tour, but she does protect it well enough, while both players have been in decent form this week. However I think Radwanska has shown she can handle the way Konta likes to play and I think that will show up here in what might just be a poor match up for the British player. After a battle, I can see Radwanska just grinding down Konta in a 64, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Jack Sock - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victor Troicki - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-4, + 1.02 Units (18 Units Staked, + 5.67% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Auckland Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Auckland Picks. Show all posts
Thursday, 12 January 2017
Wednesday, 11 January 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (January 12th)
We are down to the Quarter Finals in most cases in tournaments this week and for the WTA Sydney event we have got to the Semi Finals as the attention begins to turn to the Australian Open draw which takes place on Friday.
It has been a decent week for the picks, but it could have been even better if Ryan Harrison had managed to win one more game in his loss to Jack Sock on Wednesday. The match did go into a deciding set as I anticipated, but Harrison lost that 6-1 which allowed Sock to come through with a cover by a single game.
Things happen and it has been a solid enough week which I want to end in the right way and then we can focus on the Australian Open which begins on Monday, but actually starts on Sunday evening for those of us in the United Kingdom. Most of the matches at this time of the season are played during the sleeping hours for us over in this part of the world, but that is the way it goes and most of the next few months will be played at much more reasonable hours.
Joao Sousa - 1.5 games v Robin Haase: A win over David Ferrer in the Second Round has to give Robin Haase confidence to take into the rest of the tournament in Auckland. I have to admit I am surprised that Haase is up to Number 58 in the World Rankings considering he has not had more than 15 wins on the main ATP Tour in any of the last three seasons, but successes on the Challenger circuit have kept in a decent position.
The layers have set this as almost a pick 'em contest between Haase and Joao Sousa and there isn't much that separates them in the World Rankings. Sousa has had two decent wins in Auckland this week to build his own confidence in his first appearance in 2017 especially after coming in off a tough 2016 following a career best year in 2015.
Neither player is at their best on the hard courts but will be looking at the clay court season in which to build their points over the course of the year. However I do think Sousa has had considerably more success on this surface than Haase in recent years which might be a surprise considering the Dutchman has the stronger serve and should have an edge in the power department.
The Sousa consistency is where he is going to have an edge in the match and I do think it might be tough for Haase to back up his win over Ferrer having spent more time on court than Sousa. The courts are playing pretty fast in Auckland, but Sousa has played well on the indoor hard courts and I think the speed won't bother him as much as you may expect on the face of things.
It was Haase who dominated proceedings when these players met in Marseille but Sousa got some revenge when they played at the Olympic Games in Rio. The first serve is going to be critical for Haase in this Quarter Final, but I think Sousa can get the better of someone who had a big upset win on Wednesday and can find that tough to back up. It could easily go into a third set, but Sousa can come through with a 64, 46, 64 win and a place in the Semi Final.
John Isner-Steve Johnson Over 10.5 Total Games Set One: This is never an easy market to get involved in simply because all it takes is a couple of special returns and a break is generated. The problem for Steve Johnson and John Isner is that being broken will almost certainly mean the end of the set for them, but I do think there is every chance these two players will get to at least five all in the first set.
Both are heavily reliant on the serve and neither is a great returner, while the quicker conditions in Auckland might highlight both of those areas of their game. In four of their six previous matches it has needed a tie-breaker to decide the first set, while more than half of their fifteen completed sets have ended in a tie-breaker.
Johnson has been serving well this week having faced just two break points in his two matches, but he could only create one break point in his last match against Yen-Hsun Lu. There were breaks in the first two sets in the John Isner match against Malek Jaziri, but the percentage of points won against serve were not exactly inspiring.
Both players can look after their serve for long enough to get over this number in the first set and I will back that outcome from this Quarter Final.
Eugenie Bouchard + 3.5 games v Johanna Konta: I am the first to admit that I have felt Eugenie Bouchard has been one of the most over-rated players on the WTA Tour who are desperate for a new face to replace the likes of Maria Sharapova at the forefront of their campaigns. Journalists and experts have always tended to favour the blonde bombshell, like previously with Anna Kournikova, but Bouchard has at least been a little better on the court than the Russian.
It has been a tough eighteen months for Bouchard though and she has slipped down the World Rankings and is now regularly over-rated by fans and experts alike. However this is a very positive week for Bouchard with three wins over players Ranked higher than the Canadian and she has to be confident going into this Semi Final.
This is a big task for Bouchard against Johanna Konta who has had a tremendously successful twelve months and has shown she is still working hard to develop with her start in 2017. Her three wins in Sydney have been very impressive and Konta will feel she can match the Semi Final run at the Australian Open in 2016 in her current form.
Konta is the better player on a consistent basis, but I do think Bouchard can put together enough tennis at a slightly higher level than Konta which can help her take a set. Her form this week suggests this will be a close match and Konta could have some problems if Bouchard brings her very best to the court. Overall I do think Konta's steady play gets her through the match, but this is enough games to make Bouchard an appealing pick and I will back her to keep this competitive at the very least.
MY PICKS: Joao Sousa - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
John Isner-Steve Johnson Over 10.5 Games Set One @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-2, + 3.20 Units (12 Units Staked, + 26.67% Yield)
It has been a decent week for the picks, but it could have been even better if Ryan Harrison had managed to win one more game in his loss to Jack Sock on Wednesday. The match did go into a deciding set as I anticipated, but Harrison lost that 6-1 which allowed Sock to come through with a cover by a single game.
Things happen and it has been a solid enough week which I want to end in the right way and then we can focus on the Australian Open which begins on Monday, but actually starts on Sunday evening for those of us in the United Kingdom. Most of the matches at this time of the season are played during the sleeping hours for us over in this part of the world, but that is the way it goes and most of the next few months will be played at much more reasonable hours.
Joao Sousa - 1.5 games v Robin Haase: A win over David Ferrer in the Second Round has to give Robin Haase confidence to take into the rest of the tournament in Auckland. I have to admit I am surprised that Haase is up to Number 58 in the World Rankings considering he has not had more than 15 wins on the main ATP Tour in any of the last three seasons, but successes on the Challenger circuit have kept in a decent position.
The layers have set this as almost a pick 'em contest between Haase and Joao Sousa and there isn't much that separates them in the World Rankings. Sousa has had two decent wins in Auckland this week to build his own confidence in his first appearance in 2017 especially after coming in off a tough 2016 following a career best year in 2015.
Neither player is at their best on the hard courts but will be looking at the clay court season in which to build their points over the course of the year. However I do think Sousa has had considerably more success on this surface than Haase in recent years which might be a surprise considering the Dutchman has the stronger serve and should have an edge in the power department.
The Sousa consistency is where he is going to have an edge in the match and I do think it might be tough for Haase to back up his win over Ferrer having spent more time on court than Sousa. The courts are playing pretty fast in Auckland, but Sousa has played well on the indoor hard courts and I think the speed won't bother him as much as you may expect on the face of things.
It was Haase who dominated proceedings when these players met in Marseille but Sousa got some revenge when they played at the Olympic Games in Rio. The first serve is going to be critical for Haase in this Quarter Final, but I think Sousa can get the better of someone who had a big upset win on Wednesday and can find that tough to back up. It could easily go into a third set, but Sousa can come through with a 64, 46, 64 win and a place in the Semi Final.
John Isner-Steve Johnson Over 10.5 Total Games Set One: This is never an easy market to get involved in simply because all it takes is a couple of special returns and a break is generated. The problem for Steve Johnson and John Isner is that being broken will almost certainly mean the end of the set for them, but I do think there is every chance these two players will get to at least five all in the first set.
Both are heavily reliant on the serve and neither is a great returner, while the quicker conditions in Auckland might highlight both of those areas of their game. In four of their six previous matches it has needed a tie-breaker to decide the first set, while more than half of their fifteen completed sets have ended in a tie-breaker.
Johnson has been serving well this week having faced just two break points in his two matches, but he could only create one break point in his last match against Yen-Hsun Lu. There were breaks in the first two sets in the John Isner match against Malek Jaziri, but the percentage of points won against serve were not exactly inspiring.
Both players can look after their serve for long enough to get over this number in the first set and I will back that outcome from this Quarter Final.
Eugenie Bouchard + 3.5 games v Johanna Konta: I am the first to admit that I have felt Eugenie Bouchard has been one of the most over-rated players on the WTA Tour who are desperate for a new face to replace the likes of Maria Sharapova at the forefront of their campaigns. Journalists and experts have always tended to favour the blonde bombshell, like previously with Anna Kournikova, but Bouchard has at least been a little better on the court than the Russian.
It has been a tough eighteen months for Bouchard though and she has slipped down the World Rankings and is now regularly over-rated by fans and experts alike. However this is a very positive week for Bouchard with three wins over players Ranked higher than the Canadian and she has to be confident going into this Semi Final.
This is a big task for Bouchard against Johanna Konta who has had a tremendously successful twelve months and has shown she is still working hard to develop with her start in 2017. Her three wins in Sydney have been very impressive and Konta will feel she can match the Semi Final run at the Australian Open in 2016 in her current form.
Konta is the better player on a consistent basis, but I do think Bouchard can put together enough tennis at a slightly higher level than Konta which can help her take a set. Her form this week suggests this will be a close match and Konta could have some problems if Bouchard brings her very best to the court. Overall I do think Konta's steady play gets her through the match, but this is enough games to make Bouchard an appealing pick and I will back her to keep this competitive at the very least.
MY PICKS: Joao Sousa - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
John Isner-Steve Johnson Over 10.5 Games Set One @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-2, + 3.20 Units (12 Units Staked, + 26.67% Yield)
Tuesday, 10 January 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (January 11th)
It was announced on Tuesday that Maria Sharapova would be making her return to the Tour at the tournament in Stuttgart in April despite that event beginning two days before the ban is officially over. The organisers have bent over backwards to say Sharapova's First Round match will be played on the Wednesday when her ban comes to a close and she will be invited back with open arms to the Tour despite the shady manner in which Sharapova has decided to accept no blame for her part in the ban she has been handed out back in January 2016.
I would have thought that might have at least put some organisers' noses out of joint that they wouldn't be falling over themselves to hand Sharapova a Wild Card to events rather than forcing her to earn her way back up the World Rankings. Instead I think she will be welcomed back as if nothing wrong has happened and I think that does send a wrong message out to casual fans as well as young players who may feel they can cross a line.
Of course Sharapova has a huge name and is going to bring in the spectators and the journalists into every match she plays on her return so the organisers have put any morals behind the financial reward for having her in the draw. That is certainly the case for most tournaments outside of the Grand Slam events, but I would be stunned if either Roland Garros or Wimbledon have not set aside a Wild Card for Sharapova into those events too.
The problem I do have is that Sharapova is not making a dramatic return to the Tour after leaving like Kim Clijsters did, nor is she off a big injury like Juan Martin Del Potro, and the former World Number 1 has not shown remorse for the fact she got caught taking a banned substance. Some humbleness would have been nice, even in the case of a mistake of not realising Meldonium had been moved onto the banned substance list, but instead all the fingers have been pointed at the ITF and no responsibility has been taken.
I can't say I am surprised that Sharapova would be receiving Wild Cards, but it would be nice if some tournaments make a stand and show that failing a drugs test is not going to easy to sweep under the carpet regardless of how a big a name is in the sport. I won't hold my breath on that happening though with a Wild Card given into a tournament before the ban is completed.
It has been a solid first two days of picks from the various tournaments being played and there are plenty of matches to come on Wednesday. We are also now just two days away from the Australian Open draw which takes place on Friday and the excitement for that tournament is building.
While the two top men's players look like they are in form from Doha, the two top women's players are perhaps feeling a bit of pressure with both Angelique Kerber and Serena Williams suffering disappointing losses to open 2017. They might be the players to beat, but the women's draw looks more open than the men's although it will look all the clearer on Friday once the draw has been made.
Ryan Harrison + 3.5 games v Jack Sock: Receiving a bye in the First Round means Jack Sock will be playing for World Ranking points for the first time in 2017 as he looks to make a big impact as a Singles player this season. Sock is so focused that he has admitted he is going to schedule fewer Doubles tournaments to keep himself fresh and ready to compete despite being in the top 25 of the World Rankings as both a Singles and Doubles player.
A solid performance in the Hopman Cup will have given Sock some confidence, although I do think he needs to show he is now much better conditioned and ready to handle the heat of the summer in New Zealand and Australia. It has affected his performances in the past, but Sock will come in with some confidence.
This is a challenge for him against Ryan Harrison who won two Qualifiers before crushing an out of form Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the First Round to feel very good in the conditions in Auckland. The serve has been working very well for Harrison and he has to feel that gives him a chance to put some pressure on Sock whose backhand can be attacked with heavy shots into that wing.
The Harrison backhand is not a potent weapon though and Sock has a big serve and heavy forehand that can make life easy for him at times. His success on the Doubles court means he will be able to get to the net and put away points when necessary, but I do think Harrison is playing with some confidence too and that can make this a tight match.
We could see a deciding set needed to separate these players and I think the games being given to Harrison on the handicap can keep him close in this one.
MY PICKS: Ryan Harrison + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-1, + 5.20 Units (10 Units Staked, + 52% Yield)
I would have thought that might have at least put some organisers' noses out of joint that they wouldn't be falling over themselves to hand Sharapova a Wild Card to events rather than forcing her to earn her way back up the World Rankings. Instead I think she will be welcomed back as if nothing wrong has happened and I think that does send a wrong message out to casual fans as well as young players who may feel they can cross a line.
Of course Sharapova has a huge name and is going to bring in the spectators and the journalists into every match she plays on her return so the organisers have put any morals behind the financial reward for having her in the draw. That is certainly the case for most tournaments outside of the Grand Slam events, but I would be stunned if either Roland Garros or Wimbledon have not set aside a Wild Card for Sharapova into those events too.
The problem I do have is that Sharapova is not making a dramatic return to the Tour after leaving like Kim Clijsters did, nor is she off a big injury like Juan Martin Del Potro, and the former World Number 1 has not shown remorse for the fact she got caught taking a banned substance. Some humbleness would have been nice, even in the case of a mistake of not realising Meldonium had been moved onto the banned substance list, but instead all the fingers have been pointed at the ITF and no responsibility has been taken.
I can't say I am surprised that Sharapova would be receiving Wild Cards, but it would be nice if some tournaments make a stand and show that failing a drugs test is not going to easy to sweep under the carpet regardless of how a big a name is in the sport. I won't hold my breath on that happening though with a Wild Card given into a tournament before the ban is completed.
It has been a solid first two days of picks from the various tournaments being played and there are plenty of matches to come on Wednesday. We are also now just two days away from the Australian Open draw which takes place on Friday and the excitement for that tournament is building.
While the two top men's players look like they are in form from Doha, the two top women's players are perhaps feeling a bit of pressure with both Angelique Kerber and Serena Williams suffering disappointing losses to open 2017. They might be the players to beat, but the women's draw looks more open than the men's although it will look all the clearer on Friday once the draw has been made.
Ryan Harrison + 3.5 games v Jack Sock: Receiving a bye in the First Round means Jack Sock will be playing for World Ranking points for the first time in 2017 as he looks to make a big impact as a Singles player this season. Sock is so focused that he has admitted he is going to schedule fewer Doubles tournaments to keep himself fresh and ready to compete despite being in the top 25 of the World Rankings as both a Singles and Doubles player.
A solid performance in the Hopman Cup will have given Sock some confidence, although I do think he needs to show he is now much better conditioned and ready to handle the heat of the summer in New Zealand and Australia. It has affected his performances in the past, but Sock will come in with some confidence.
This is a challenge for him against Ryan Harrison who won two Qualifiers before crushing an out of form Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the First Round to feel very good in the conditions in Auckland. The serve has been working very well for Harrison and he has to feel that gives him a chance to put some pressure on Sock whose backhand can be attacked with heavy shots into that wing.
The Harrison backhand is not a potent weapon though and Sock has a big serve and heavy forehand that can make life easy for him at times. His success on the Doubles court means he will be able to get to the net and put away points when necessary, but I do think Harrison is playing with some confidence too and that can make this a tight match.
We could see a deciding set needed to separate these players and I think the games being given to Harrison on the handicap can keep him close in this one.
MY PICKS: Ryan Harrison + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-1, + 5.20 Units (10 Units Staked, + 52% Yield)
Monday, 9 January 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (January 10th)
The early part of most weeks on the Tennis Tour tend to be a little quieter as the slow build into the tournaments is the usual formula applied. However there are a few weeks when the matches come thick and fast earlier in the week to make sure these events are completed ahead of the Grand Slams and give the participants time to head off to the next venues.
On Tuesday there are a lot of matches to be played across the four different draws and I have picks from some of those after Jiri Vesely got the week off to a solid start with a battling win on Monday.
Ryan Harrison - 3.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: The poor end to the 2016 season has overrun into 2017 for Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and I do wonder how his confidence would not have been knocked. It is now seven straight losses for Garcia-Lopez and the veteran has now won just three matches from the last twelve tournaments he has competed in.
All of that adds up and Garcia-Lopez has won one of the last thirteen sets in which he has competed and the layers have set Ryan Harrison as a pretty strong favourite in this one. The American had a disappointing loss in Brisbane last week, but he is back inside the top 100 in the World Rankings and he has won two Qualifiers in Auckland which means he should be very tuned up to the conditions here.
The poor form of Garcia-Lopez has obviously contributed to the price in this match and it has been added to by the fact that Harrison has won their previous three matches. That includes a solid straight sets win in Shenzhen in the final quarter of the 2016 season and I do think Harrison can back up his wins so far this week to move into the Second Round.
Harrison has a decent serve when he has found some confidence and I expect that to at least put in a position to increase the pressure on Garcia-Lopez to keep holding his own service games. That has been an issue for Garcia-Lopez through his career and only becomes more difficult in his current state of mind and I think Harrison earns a break more in each set to come through with a 64, 64 win.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 3.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: The WTA tournament in Sydney is loaded with some of the top names on that Tour and those who may be considered amongst the favourites at Melbourne Park in the next fortnight. That means many of the Second Round matches are already very competitive looking and this one of three picks I am making from Sydney.
Svetlana Kuznetsova is still the face of Russian women's tennis having had a really good 2016 which saw her reach the WTA Finals and come close to actually winning the tournament. The confidence would have really given Kuznetsova a shot in the arm in the latter stages of her career and she has begun 2017 in decent form.
Losing out to Garbine Muguruza in Brisbane last week is no disgrace and Kuznetsova will be confident she can get the better of Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova who had a mixed 2016. Pavlyuchenkova has the tools to get much higher in the World Rankings, but she has a few vulnerabilities that the top players expose, while the mental aspect of trying to beat a compatriot who has been one of the best players in the nation has had an effect on her.
Pavlyuchenkova can cause problems if she is playing as well as she was when seeing off Samantha Stosur in the First Round, but she has to raise her level again to match Kuznetsova. A strong serving display would give Pavlyuchenkova a chance, but I think Kuznetsova can get her moving around and break her down and I like the veteran Russian to come through with a 64, 63 win.
Barbora Strycova - 2.5 games v Roberta Vinci: The head to head might read that Roberta Vinci has a 4-3 lead over Barbora Strycova, but most of those wins came before the latter made a real impact as a Singles player on the Tour. In fact it is Strycova who has won the last three matches between these players that have been played since March 2014 and you can see why the layers have made her the favourite in this Second Round match.
Both players have to work hard for the points they win on the court with both having decent enough first serves but weak second serves that tend to be vulnerable. It would be no surprise at all to see Strycova and Vinci share out a few breaks of serve in this one, but I do think Strycova has a little more consistency in her game to earn a couple more than her Italian opponent.
The backhand wing is where Strycova should be able to exert more pressure around the court than Vinci and I expect that to be a difference maker in a close match.
At this stage of their careers I would expect Strycova to have the considerably stronger movement around the court and able to get herself into better positions in the rallies. There will be plenty of long rallies and both players can have their moments in this one, but I think Strycova can come through with a 75, 64 win in this match.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 games v Christina McHale: I am not the biggest fan of the Agnieszka Radwanska game, or at least nothing like close to what commentators seem to be, but I do think she can be backed to cover a big number in this Second Round match. She faces the American Christina McHale who Radwanska has been able to wear down and beat in all four previous matches.
None of those sets has see McHale win more than three games against Radwanska as she finds it tough to get over the mental obstacle of breaking down the defensive work that the Pole gets around on the court. With McHale always looking to be aggressive, being asked to play one more ball than she is accustomed to leads to mistakes and that is partly the reason I think Radwanska usually gets the better of her so comfortably.
Radwanska wasn't in great form in Shenzhen last week, but McHale was on the wrong end of a heavy loss to Alize Cornet in Brisbane and I think Radwanska can move through this match in relative comfort.
The first set might be a little more competitive, but I can see McHale just struggling to stay in this one from a mental point of view if she does fall behind. It could lead to another one sided win for Radwanska against this opponent and I will back her to cover this handicap.
MY PICKS: Ryan Harrison - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Barbora Strycova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-0, + 2 Units (2 Units Staked, + 100% Yield)
On Tuesday there are a lot of matches to be played across the four different draws and I have picks from some of those after Jiri Vesely got the week off to a solid start with a battling win on Monday.
Ryan Harrison - 3.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: The poor end to the 2016 season has overrun into 2017 for Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and I do wonder how his confidence would not have been knocked. It is now seven straight losses for Garcia-Lopez and the veteran has now won just three matches from the last twelve tournaments he has competed in.
All of that adds up and Garcia-Lopez has won one of the last thirteen sets in which he has competed and the layers have set Ryan Harrison as a pretty strong favourite in this one. The American had a disappointing loss in Brisbane last week, but he is back inside the top 100 in the World Rankings and he has won two Qualifiers in Auckland which means he should be very tuned up to the conditions here.
The poor form of Garcia-Lopez has obviously contributed to the price in this match and it has been added to by the fact that Harrison has won their previous three matches. That includes a solid straight sets win in Shenzhen in the final quarter of the 2016 season and I do think Harrison can back up his wins so far this week to move into the Second Round.
Harrison has a decent serve when he has found some confidence and I expect that to at least put in a position to increase the pressure on Garcia-Lopez to keep holding his own service games. That has been an issue for Garcia-Lopez through his career and only becomes more difficult in his current state of mind and I think Harrison earns a break more in each set to come through with a 64, 64 win.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 3.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: The WTA tournament in Sydney is loaded with some of the top names on that Tour and those who may be considered amongst the favourites at Melbourne Park in the next fortnight. That means many of the Second Round matches are already very competitive looking and this one of three picks I am making from Sydney.
Svetlana Kuznetsova is still the face of Russian women's tennis having had a really good 2016 which saw her reach the WTA Finals and come close to actually winning the tournament. The confidence would have really given Kuznetsova a shot in the arm in the latter stages of her career and she has begun 2017 in decent form.
Losing out to Garbine Muguruza in Brisbane last week is no disgrace and Kuznetsova will be confident she can get the better of Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova who had a mixed 2016. Pavlyuchenkova has the tools to get much higher in the World Rankings, but she has a few vulnerabilities that the top players expose, while the mental aspect of trying to beat a compatriot who has been one of the best players in the nation has had an effect on her.
Pavlyuchenkova can cause problems if she is playing as well as she was when seeing off Samantha Stosur in the First Round, but she has to raise her level again to match Kuznetsova. A strong serving display would give Pavlyuchenkova a chance, but I think Kuznetsova can get her moving around and break her down and I like the veteran Russian to come through with a 64, 63 win.
Barbora Strycova - 2.5 games v Roberta Vinci: The head to head might read that Roberta Vinci has a 4-3 lead over Barbora Strycova, but most of those wins came before the latter made a real impact as a Singles player on the Tour. In fact it is Strycova who has won the last three matches between these players that have been played since March 2014 and you can see why the layers have made her the favourite in this Second Round match.
Both players have to work hard for the points they win on the court with both having decent enough first serves but weak second serves that tend to be vulnerable. It would be no surprise at all to see Strycova and Vinci share out a few breaks of serve in this one, but I do think Strycova has a little more consistency in her game to earn a couple more than her Italian opponent.
The backhand wing is where Strycova should be able to exert more pressure around the court than Vinci and I expect that to be a difference maker in a close match.
At this stage of their careers I would expect Strycova to have the considerably stronger movement around the court and able to get herself into better positions in the rallies. There will be plenty of long rallies and both players can have their moments in this one, but I think Strycova can come through with a 75, 64 win in this match.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 games v Christina McHale: I am not the biggest fan of the Agnieszka Radwanska game, or at least nothing like close to what commentators seem to be, but I do think she can be backed to cover a big number in this Second Round match. She faces the American Christina McHale who Radwanska has been able to wear down and beat in all four previous matches.
None of those sets has see McHale win more than three games against Radwanska as she finds it tough to get over the mental obstacle of breaking down the defensive work that the Pole gets around on the court. With McHale always looking to be aggressive, being asked to play one more ball than she is accustomed to leads to mistakes and that is partly the reason I think Radwanska usually gets the better of her so comfortably.
Radwanska wasn't in great form in Shenzhen last week, but McHale was on the wrong end of a heavy loss to Alize Cornet in Brisbane and I think Radwanska can move through this match in relative comfort.
The first set might be a little more competitive, but I can see McHale just struggling to stay in this one from a mental point of view if she does fall behind. It could lead to another one sided win for Radwanska against this opponent and I will back her to cover this handicap.
MY PICKS: Ryan Harrison - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Barbora Strycova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-0, + 2 Units (2 Units Staked, + 100% Yield)
Sunday, 8 January 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (January 9th)
The week before the Grand Slam events sees most of the big name players having a rest, although this week we do have a very strong WTA tournament in Sydney this week.
It was a tough start to the season but over eleven months it is going to be up and down at times and the key is to have bigger winning weeks than those disappointing ones and get 2017 back to winning ways after the disappointment of the way the last two seasons have gone. I do feel confident despite the week to open the season because I think I was reading the matches in the right way and just needed a little more luck at critical times.
This week the picks will be come out day by day, but I might not have picks from every day of the tournaments as I get ready for the Australian Open when better opportunities are likely to be more appealing.
Jiri Vesely - 3.5 games v Horacio Zeballos: Both Jiri Vesely and Horacio Zeballos will have taken a flight out of Doha to Auckland for this tournament after losing to top ten players in Qatar last week. This is the only pick I am going to make from the opening day of the tournaments to be played this week despite a host of matches scheduled for Monday as the events ensure they are completed by Saturday.
That will give players the chance to head to Melbourne and get set to take part in the Australian Open even if the majority of those playing this week on the ATP Tour.
There is an expectation of Jiri Vesely and hopes that he can kick on up the World Rankings in 2017. He has the tools to be really effective on the Tour, but has to get a little more out of the serve and I think he can put some pressure on Zeballos in this one if he can serve well and force the Argentinian to match him in that department.
Zeballos might have started a new trend last week when asking Novak Djokovic for a 'selfie' after losing his match against him, but he will believe this is a much more winnable match. He has had some solid results on the hard courts over the last twelve months and Vesely will be challenged by him, but I do think the big Czech player is going to have the edge behind serve and he can just do enough to see him off in two sets.
There isn't much between these two in the World Rankings and Vesely did not play that well on the hard courts last season. However he had some difficult draws and I think Vesely can win this First Round match in Auckland as I feel Zeballos is going to be more likely to throw out a couple of really poor games behind serve which contributes to a 63, 76 defeat.
MY PICKS: Jiri Vesely - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Season 2017: - 8.02 Units (62 Units Staked, - 12.94% Yield)
It was a tough start to the season but over eleven months it is going to be up and down at times and the key is to have bigger winning weeks than those disappointing ones and get 2017 back to winning ways after the disappointment of the way the last two seasons have gone. I do feel confident despite the week to open the season because I think I was reading the matches in the right way and just needed a little more luck at critical times.
This week the picks will be come out day by day, but I might not have picks from every day of the tournaments as I get ready for the Australian Open when better opportunities are likely to be more appealing.
Jiri Vesely - 3.5 games v Horacio Zeballos: Both Jiri Vesely and Horacio Zeballos will have taken a flight out of Doha to Auckland for this tournament after losing to top ten players in Qatar last week. This is the only pick I am going to make from the opening day of the tournaments to be played this week despite a host of matches scheduled for Monday as the events ensure they are completed by Saturday.
That will give players the chance to head to Melbourne and get set to take part in the Australian Open even if the majority of those playing this week on the ATP Tour.
There is an expectation of Jiri Vesely and hopes that he can kick on up the World Rankings in 2017. He has the tools to be really effective on the Tour, but has to get a little more out of the serve and I think he can put some pressure on Zeballos in this one if he can serve well and force the Argentinian to match him in that department.
Zeballos might have started a new trend last week when asking Novak Djokovic for a 'selfie' after losing his match against him, but he will believe this is a much more winnable match. He has had some solid results on the hard courts over the last twelve months and Vesely will be challenged by him, but I do think the big Czech player is going to have the edge behind serve and he can just do enough to see him off in two sets.
There isn't much between these two in the World Rankings and Vesely did not play that well on the hard courts last season. However he had some difficult draws and I think Vesely can win this First Round match in Auckland as I feel Zeballos is going to be more likely to throw out a couple of really poor games behind serve which contributes to a 63, 76 defeat.
MY PICKS: Jiri Vesely - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Season 2017: - 8.02 Units (62 Units Staked, - 12.94% Yield)
Friday, 6 January 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (January 7th)
The tennis tournaments that have opened the 2017 season get down to the business end of the week as at least three Finals are played on Saturday with two other events completing their Semi Final matches.
Friday was a little disappointing when you think Stan Wawrinka had a chance to serve out the match at 5-2 in the third set that would have produced a cover and Rafael Nadal was seemingly completely in control of his match until the eighth game of the second set.
I was a little irritated with my Albert Ramos-Vinolas pick, but those things happen over the course of an eleven month season and it is no point being too annoyed by it.
Ana Konjuh - 2.5 games v Lauren Davis: The Final in Auckland is being played by one player who has big things expected of her in her career and another who is perhaps surpassing all expectations already. Ana Konjuh has been labelled a future star of the WTA Tour and she is in a position to win her second career title this week having previously won the event in Nottingham.
That was over eighteen months ago and Konjuh is a better player these days coming off her best year on the Tour. At 19 years old there is an expectation that she can take another step forward and her performances in Auckland will certainly have given her some confidence to do that.
It won't be an easy match against Lauren Davis who has the experience of playing in Finals on the Tour in 2016 although she is yet to win a title. The American does have to work a little harder behind the serve without being blessed with the power to earn too many cheap points and that is where Konjuh should have an edge with the chance of overturning the result between these players in Auckland three years ago.
Back then both were much more inexperienced, but I think the upside in the Konjuh game is bigger at this moment. She should be able to use the first serve to set herself up in the points in this one and I think Konjuh will have the majority of the break points while coming through with a 75, 64 win and taking the title home.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Alize Cornet: While Karolina Pliskova had to win a tough Semi Final, Alize Cornet was the beneficiary of a Garbine Muguruza retirement and has had longer to prepare for this Final. That might be the only reason that she is considered a shorter priced underdog than she was in the Semi Final because I do think Pliskova has been in better form than Muguruza over the last few months.
I was backing Muguruza to cover a slightly bigger number than this one against Cornet in the Semi Final and I do think some of the same factors apply here.
Pliskova is arguably serving better than anyone on the WTA Tour at this point of her career, and I include Serena Williams who had a tough time in testing conditions in Auckland this week, and that gives Pliskova an edge in this Final. Even when she drops a couple of points on serve, Pliskova has the power to hammer through her opponents and she showed all of those skills in the win over Elina Svitolina on Friday.
There is little doubt that Cornet is going to offer some chances to break on her own service games and I do feel Pliskova might be the big threat to win the Australian Open title when that tournament begins next week. Pliskova has proven to be a very effective front runner and I think she is going to have a little too much for Cornet and level up the head to head having lost their previous match.
I expect a lot of the positive shots to be coming from Pliskova's side of the court and Cornet playing reactive tennis, and that should eventually lead to a 64, 63 win for the favourite in Brisbane.
Andy Murray - 1.5 games v Novak Djokovic: When I watched the ATP World Tour Finals conclusion for a second time, I found it hard to predict how long it would take Novak Djokovic to get his aura back. All of the conditions looked right for him to not only beat Andy Murray but finish the season as the World Number 1 yet Djokovic was beaten fairly comfortably on the day.
That was a concern and potentially a real shift in the dynamics between these two players, but Murray has to underline that by winning this title in Doha by beating Djokovic in the Final. I think he is capable of doing that with Djokovic not quite looking up to full speed in narrow wins over Jan-Lennard Struff and particularly in the Semi Final against Fernando Verdasco who should have beaten Djokovic.
I do think Murray has room for improvement in his own service games, but he looked like he was peaking at the right time with an impressive win over Tomas Berdych in the Semi Final. Murray will have to serve well in this one to keep Djokovic at bay, but I do think the Serb is not at full confidence with his own serve and I do think Murray will be able to attack him.
Murray should have the edge in the rallies as his confidence has to be in a lot stronger place than Djokovic at this moment and it could be a huge mental blow ahead of the Australian Open. You can't ever rule out Djokovic, but I think that is thinking back to how he was playing this time last year and not the more recent performances we have seen from his racquet.
It will take some time for Djokovic to rebuild his confidence to those levels, but Murray is playing at a higher level at the moment and I expect he won't miss the opportunities that Struff and Verdasco had against the former World Number 1. I like Murray to win this one by a convincing margin which will only harden him as favourite to win the first Grand Slam of the 2017 season.
MY PICKS: Ana Konjuh - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 13-15, - 5.68 Units (56 Units Staked, - 10.14% Yield)
Friday was a little disappointing when you think Stan Wawrinka had a chance to serve out the match at 5-2 in the third set that would have produced a cover and Rafael Nadal was seemingly completely in control of his match until the eighth game of the second set.
I was a little irritated with my Albert Ramos-Vinolas pick, but those things happen over the course of an eleven month season and it is no point being too annoyed by it.
Ana Konjuh - 2.5 games v Lauren Davis: The Final in Auckland is being played by one player who has big things expected of her in her career and another who is perhaps surpassing all expectations already. Ana Konjuh has been labelled a future star of the WTA Tour and she is in a position to win her second career title this week having previously won the event in Nottingham.
That was over eighteen months ago and Konjuh is a better player these days coming off her best year on the Tour. At 19 years old there is an expectation that she can take another step forward and her performances in Auckland will certainly have given her some confidence to do that.
It won't be an easy match against Lauren Davis who has the experience of playing in Finals on the Tour in 2016 although she is yet to win a title. The American does have to work a little harder behind the serve without being blessed with the power to earn too many cheap points and that is where Konjuh should have an edge with the chance of overturning the result between these players in Auckland three years ago.
Back then both were much more inexperienced, but I think the upside in the Konjuh game is bigger at this moment. She should be able to use the first serve to set herself up in the points in this one and I think Konjuh will have the majority of the break points while coming through with a 75, 64 win and taking the title home.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Alize Cornet: While Karolina Pliskova had to win a tough Semi Final, Alize Cornet was the beneficiary of a Garbine Muguruza retirement and has had longer to prepare for this Final. That might be the only reason that she is considered a shorter priced underdog than she was in the Semi Final because I do think Pliskova has been in better form than Muguruza over the last few months.
I was backing Muguruza to cover a slightly bigger number than this one against Cornet in the Semi Final and I do think some of the same factors apply here.
Pliskova is arguably serving better than anyone on the WTA Tour at this point of her career, and I include Serena Williams who had a tough time in testing conditions in Auckland this week, and that gives Pliskova an edge in this Final. Even when she drops a couple of points on serve, Pliskova has the power to hammer through her opponents and she showed all of those skills in the win over Elina Svitolina on Friday.
There is little doubt that Cornet is going to offer some chances to break on her own service games and I do feel Pliskova might be the big threat to win the Australian Open title when that tournament begins next week. Pliskova has proven to be a very effective front runner and I think she is going to have a little too much for Cornet and level up the head to head having lost their previous match.
I expect a lot of the positive shots to be coming from Pliskova's side of the court and Cornet playing reactive tennis, and that should eventually lead to a 64, 63 win for the favourite in Brisbane.
Andy Murray - 1.5 games v Novak Djokovic: When I watched the ATP World Tour Finals conclusion for a second time, I found it hard to predict how long it would take Novak Djokovic to get his aura back. All of the conditions looked right for him to not only beat Andy Murray but finish the season as the World Number 1 yet Djokovic was beaten fairly comfortably on the day.
That was a concern and potentially a real shift in the dynamics between these two players, but Murray has to underline that by winning this title in Doha by beating Djokovic in the Final. I think he is capable of doing that with Djokovic not quite looking up to full speed in narrow wins over Jan-Lennard Struff and particularly in the Semi Final against Fernando Verdasco who should have beaten Djokovic.
I do think Murray has room for improvement in his own service games, but he looked like he was peaking at the right time with an impressive win over Tomas Berdych in the Semi Final. Murray will have to serve well in this one to keep Djokovic at bay, but I do think the Serb is not at full confidence with his own serve and I do think Murray will be able to attack him.
Murray should have the edge in the rallies as his confidence has to be in a lot stronger place than Djokovic at this moment and it could be a huge mental blow ahead of the Australian Open. You can't ever rule out Djokovic, but I think that is thinking back to how he was playing this time last year and not the more recent performances we have seen from his racquet.
It will take some time for Djokovic to rebuild his confidence to those levels, but Murray is playing at a higher level at the moment and I expect he won't miss the opportunities that Struff and Verdasco had against the former World Number 1. I like Murray to win this one by a convincing margin which will only harden him as favourite to win the first Grand Slam of the 2017 season.
MY PICKS: Ana Konjuh - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 13-15, - 5.68 Units (56 Units Staked, - 10.14% Yield)
Wednesday, 4 January 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (January 5th)
It was a bit of a frustrating day on Wednesday with some of the players being in a position to do much better when it came to clearing the numbers. Others threw in one really poor service game which cost them an opportunity to cover and I was a little disappointed with the returns.
However I am putting that to the back of the mind now and looking for much better on Thursday as some of the events being played this week reach the Quarter Final stage and others will complete their own Quarter Final line ups.
Alize Cornet + 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: The opening matches of a new season are always going to be difficult for the top players on the Tour as they try and regain the rhythm on the court. This is a time where the tournaments are loaded with some quality players as they prepare for the Australian Open and there have been some upsets in the different events being played.
Dominika Cibulkova managed to avoid an upset on Wednesday by coming from a set and a break down to beat Shuai Zhang to move into this Quarter Final. After winning the WTA Finals at the end of October Cibulkova has to be coming into the 2017 season with a load of confidence behind her and she is going to be a threat at the first Grand Slam of the season having reached the Final at the Australian Open previously.
She doesn't match up as well with Alize Cornet as you might imagine with the latter being able to use the power Cibulkova uses on the court back against her. There is definitely some talent in the Cornet racquet, but she can be emotionally a little unstable which has made it difficult for her to take the next step in her career, but she will appreciate the pace that Cibulkova gives to her and being able to redirect that back at the Slovakian.
These two players had two highly competitive matches at the back end of the 2016 season with Cibulkova chasing a spot in the WTA Finals at that time. Both Cibulkova and Cornet won a match apiece in Wuhan and Beijing and both matches went the distance with very little between then.
There will be a lot of break points in this one and I can see the match needing three sets to separate these players again. That makes the games being given to Cornet very appealing and I will back her to cover with the start.
Garbine Muguruza v Svetlana Kuznetsova: A few months ago Garbine Muguruza would have been a big favourite to beat Svetlana Kuznetsova on most surfaces, but the end to the 2016 season has seen her set as the marginal favourite in this one. In most cases the layers believe this will be a pick 'em contest in the Quarter Final with Muguruza as the underdog in some cases, but I think the Spaniard can battle her way past Kuznetsova.
She has needed all the big shots in her locker to come through two tough matches already in Brisbane, but I think those wins will have given Muguruza some mental strength to fall back upon the rest of the way this week. Muguruza could easily have lost either match played this week and Kuznetsova is another level up from the challenges that Sam Stosur and Daria Kasatkina have given Muguruza.
It has been a much easier path through to the Quarter Final for Kuznetsova having beaten overmatched opponents, while she was one of the hottest players on the WTA Tour to end the 2016 season. The Russian finished with her most wins on the Tour since 2007, but she did end up on the wrong side of two losses to Muguruza which has to give the latter the mental edge at the big moments in this match.
Her first serve has to be working to prevent Kuznetsova taking control of rallies and I think Muguruza will like the match up as the former tries to outgun her from the back of the court. The power edge goes to Muguruza and I think she can battle past Kuznetsova and reach the Semi Final in Brisbane as she looks to get her confidence back to the levels they were when she won the French Open title.
Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 games v Madison Brengle: The 2017 season might only be a few days old, but there won't be as many bigger upsets than seeing Serena Williams go down to Madison Brengle in the Second Round in Auckland. It was such a surprise that even Brengle was caught on the microphone at one of the changeovers mentioning that Williams must be playing poorly because she didn't realise how 'bad' Brengle is.
Now I don't think Brengle is as bad as she thinks of herself, but it showed some character to stay in the moment and try to 'junk' her way to a win.
This is a completely different test for her though as the expectation levels will have gone up when she faces Jelena Ostapenko, although the younger player is the favourite heading into the match. We have seen players earning an upset and then struggle to back it up and I do think Brengle might have some difficulty having shown little positive form in the second half of the 2016 season.
That isn't to say Ostapenko was in stunning form herself but it was the first full year on the Tour for the Latvian and I think that took a toll on what she could do from a mental aspect. She still moved up to Number 44 in the World Rankings and Ostapenko has a couple of solid wins under her belt here already this week.
The conditions could be a problem, but I don't think Ostapenko will give out the 88 unforced errors that Serena Williams aided Brengle with and I can see her coming through with a 75, 64 win.
Julia Goerges + 4.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: It was a very good day for Julia Goerges who had to win two matches on Wednesday to move into the Quarter Final. That will have given her some confidence, but Caroline Wozniacki is a definite raise in level as to what Goerges has faced so far this week.
That means Goerges has to raise her own game but she has matched up well with Wozniacki in the past as shown by their 4-4 head to head record as well as the competitive nature of many of those matches. We know Goerges is not someone who is going to take a step back with her aggression and that means she has found ways to penetrate the Wozniacki defences when playing against someone famed for their defensive skills.
Goerges has a better first serve than Wozniacki which at least gives her a chance to dictate rallies by following up with some aggressive forehands. The consistency is not as good as Wozniacki's though which means the latter is the favourite to come through, but Goerges can take a set in this one which makes the games very attractive.
You have to imagine Goerges is going to be able to fashion some break points and it is all about whether she can take those and put the Number 2 Seed under some pressure. It is Goerges who has won four of the last six matches between these players and it has to be noted that Wozniacki would not have covered this number of games in her two wins in that time.
The only real concern has to be the two matches Goerges had to play on Wednesday, but she has been given ample time to get ready for this match and I like the German with the games to keep this one competitive at least.
Aljaz Bedene - 1.5 games v Martin Klizan: British tennis is experiencing something of a resurgence thanks to Andy Murray and the likes of Aljaz Bedene, who has switched allegiance to Great Britain, will be hoping to kick on behind the new World Number 1 in 2017.
He made a good start with a win over veteran Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and will be looking to take advantage of the fact that this will be Martin Klizan's first Singles match in 2017. Klizan might be the Number 4 Seed here, but he had a shocking 2016 and has a big title to defend in Rotterdam early next month which might end up seeing him slip drastically down the Rankings.
Klizan went 3-8 on the Tour since winning another big title in Hamburg and he lost his last seven matches in a row in 2016. He also finished 0-8 on the outdoor hard courts which is a big surprise when you think of the talent he possesses and it might take some reversing to get the confidence back into a position it should be.
If both play to the top of their ability you would have to think Klizan is the more likely winner between himself and Bedene on the talent levels. However tennis is so much about confidence and being able to not doubt yourself at the key moments and that is where Klizan has let himself down at times.
When he gets going he can be hard to stop as shown in his title wins, but Bedene might be consistent enough to come through this Second Round match and beat Klizan in his first Tour match of the season.
Benoit Paire - 2.5 games v Yuki Bhambri: It has been some time since Yuki Bhambri has been playing regularly on the Tour thanks to injuries and that has seen drop down to outside the top 450 in the World Rankings. Bhambri has talent as a former Junior Australian Open Champion, but getting back up the Rankings is going to take hard work over the next twelve months.
Bhambri has had three decent wins in Chennai having come through the Qualifiers, but the level of competition moves a few steps upwards in this Second Round match. Now I am the first who will criticise Benoit Paire as someone who can throw in an absolute stinker when you least expect it and is clearly someone who has been overrated over the last couple of years.
That was all down to one or two decent performances, but Paire should be too good in this one as long as he serves well and is not giving away games with unforced errors. His first serve should be a bigger weapon than it is, but Paire had a good First Round win in Chennai where he reached the Semi Final in 2016 and that should give him confidence.
It has to be respected that Bhambri has won eight matches in a row coming into this match, but most of those have been against players of a lower standard than Paire, or what Paire should be able to produce. I can imagine the first set has a couple of twists and turns, but eventually I am looking for Paire to come through with a 76, 64 win and a place in the Quarter Final.
Ivo Karlovic-Fernando Verdasco First Set Tie-Breaker: The opening Quarter Final to be played in Doha is between Ivo Karlovic and Fernando Verdasco as these two veterans battle once again on the Tour.
Picking a winner is difficult in this one and the layers have struggled to separate themselves too. I don't really want to get involved in picking a winner, but the almost odds against quotes for the first set to end in a tie-breaker looks a huge one.
All four sets that Ivo Karlovic has played this week have been tie-breakers and he is yet to create a break point while also offering up just four opportunities against his own serve. Someone like Fernando Verdasco is capable of taking his chance when it comes along as he won't back away from Karlovic and his aggressive shots can make things tough for the Croatian if he is protecting the net at break point.
The Verdasco has been working well enough this week to think he won't offer up too many chances to Karlovic as long as he doesn't self-destruct. That is always a concern with Verdasco, but the Spaniard should be good enough to at least protect his serve through the first set when the focus should be at the highest level and I do think both players will end up having to battle through a tie-breaker to decide it.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: The last three sets played by Andy Murray in Doha have been very competitive and seen him need 13, 13, and 12 games before he won those. That would suggest he is not at his very best level when you consider those have come against Jeremy Chardy and Gerard Melzer, but Murray is going to be working his way into the 2017 season with preparations being completed for the Australian Open.
Murray meets Nicolas Almagro in the Quarter Final in Doha and I think the veteran Spaniard has already had a successful week by winning back to back matches. However those have not come against anyone of the level of Murray and Almagro will have to turn back the clock if he is going to challenge the new World Number 1.
The hard court performances over the last twelve months won't cut it for Almagro but his serve has been working well in Doha. Unfortunately Almagro has thrown in some poor games behind serve and doing that against Murray will be much harder to recover.
It does have to be said that Murray needs to improve his own serving from the last couple of matches having allowed opponents too many looks into his games. I do think that is an area that Murray can quickly improve and I do think Almagro is going to have a few problems protecting serve against someone who returns as well as Murray and who will look to put the Spaniard in some awkward positions on the court.
After a challenge in the first set, I think Murray will eventually wear down Almagro in a 64, 62 win and move into the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Alize Cornet + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Aljaz Bedene - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic-Fernando Verdasco First Set Tie-Breaker @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-8, - 4.76 Units (28 Units Staked, - 17% Yield)
However I am putting that to the back of the mind now and looking for much better on Thursday as some of the events being played this week reach the Quarter Final stage and others will complete their own Quarter Final line ups.
Alize Cornet + 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: The opening matches of a new season are always going to be difficult for the top players on the Tour as they try and regain the rhythm on the court. This is a time where the tournaments are loaded with some quality players as they prepare for the Australian Open and there have been some upsets in the different events being played.
Dominika Cibulkova managed to avoid an upset on Wednesday by coming from a set and a break down to beat Shuai Zhang to move into this Quarter Final. After winning the WTA Finals at the end of October Cibulkova has to be coming into the 2017 season with a load of confidence behind her and she is going to be a threat at the first Grand Slam of the season having reached the Final at the Australian Open previously.
She doesn't match up as well with Alize Cornet as you might imagine with the latter being able to use the power Cibulkova uses on the court back against her. There is definitely some talent in the Cornet racquet, but she can be emotionally a little unstable which has made it difficult for her to take the next step in her career, but she will appreciate the pace that Cibulkova gives to her and being able to redirect that back at the Slovakian.
These two players had two highly competitive matches at the back end of the 2016 season with Cibulkova chasing a spot in the WTA Finals at that time. Both Cibulkova and Cornet won a match apiece in Wuhan and Beijing and both matches went the distance with very little between then.
There will be a lot of break points in this one and I can see the match needing three sets to separate these players again. That makes the games being given to Cornet very appealing and I will back her to cover with the start.
Garbine Muguruza v Svetlana Kuznetsova: A few months ago Garbine Muguruza would have been a big favourite to beat Svetlana Kuznetsova on most surfaces, but the end to the 2016 season has seen her set as the marginal favourite in this one. In most cases the layers believe this will be a pick 'em contest in the Quarter Final with Muguruza as the underdog in some cases, but I think the Spaniard can battle her way past Kuznetsova.
She has needed all the big shots in her locker to come through two tough matches already in Brisbane, but I think those wins will have given Muguruza some mental strength to fall back upon the rest of the way this week. Muguruza could easily have lost either match played this week and Kuznetsova is another level up from the challenges that Sam Stosur and Daria Kasatkina have given Muguruza.
It has been a much easier path through to the Quarter Final for Kuznetsova having beaten overmatched opponents, while she was one of the hottest players on the WTA Tour to end the 2016 season. The Russian finished with her most wins on the Tour since 2007, but she did end up on the wrong side of two losses to Muguruza which has to give the latter the mental edge at the big moments in this match.
Her first serve has to be working to prevent Kuznetsova taking control of rallies and I think Muguruza will like the match up as the former tries to outgun her from the back of the court. The power edge goes to Muguruza and I think she can battle past Kuznetsova and reach the Semi Final in Brisbane as she looks to get her confidence back to the levels they were when she won the French Open title.
Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 games v Madison Brengle: The 2017 season might only be a few days old, but there won't be as many bigger upsets than seeing Serena Williams go down to Madison Brengle in the Second Round in Auckland. It was such a surprise that even Brengle was caught on the microphone at one of the changeovers mentioning that Williams must be playing poorly because she didn't realise how 'bad' Brengle is.
Now I don't think Brengle is as bad as she thinks of herself, but it showed some character to stay in the moment and try to 'junk' her way to a win.
This is a completely different test for her though as the expectation levels will have gone up when she faces Jelena Ostapenko, although the younger player is the favourite heading into the match. We have seen players earning an upset and then struggle to back it up and I do think Brengle might have some difficulty having shown little positive form in the second half of the 2016 season.
That isn't to say Ostapenko was in stunning form herself but it was the first full year on the Tour for the Latvian and I think that took a toll on what she could do from a mental aspect. She still moved up to Number 44 in the World Rankings and Ostapenko has a couple of solid wins under her belt here already this week.
The conditions could be a problem, but I don't think Ostapenko will give out the 88 unforced errors that Serena Williams aided Brengle with and I can see her coming through with a 75, 64 win.
Julia Goerges + 4.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: It was a very good day for Julia Goerges who had to win two matches on Wednesday to move into the Quarter Final. That will have given her some confidence, but Caroline Wozniacki is a definite raise in level as to what Goerges has faced so far this week.
That means Goerges has to raise her own game but she has matched up well with Wozniacki in the past as shown by their 4-4 head to head record as well as the competitive nature of many of those matches. We know Goerges is not someone who is going to take a step back with her aggression and that means she has found ways to penetrate the Wozniacki defences when playing against someone famed for their defensive skills.
Goerges has a better first serve than Wozniacki which at least gives her a chance to dictate rallies by following up with some aggressive forehands. The consistency is not as good as Wozniacki's though which means the latter is the favourite to come through, but Goerges can take a set in this one which makes the games very attractive.
You have to imagine Goerges is going to be able to fashion some break points and it is all about whether she can take those and put the Number 2 Seed under some pressure. It is Goerges who has won four of the last six matches between these players and it has to be noted that Wozniacki would not have covered this number of games in her two wins in that time.
The only real concern has to be the two matches Goerges had to play on Wednesday, but she has been given ample time to get ready for this match and I like the German with the games to keep this one competitive at least.
Aljaz Bedene - 1.5 games v Martin Klizan: British tennis is experiencing something of a resurgence thanks to Andy Murray and the likes of Aljaz Bedene, who has switched allegiance to Great Britain, will be hoping to kick on behind the new World Number 1 in 2017.
He made a good start with a win over veteran Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and will be looking to take advantage of the fact that this will be Martin Klizan's first Singles match in 2017. Klizan might be the Number 4 Seed here, but he had a shocking 2016 and has a big title to defend in Rotterdam early next month which might end up seeing him slip drastically down the Rankings.
Klizan went 3-8 on the Tour since winning another big title in Hamburg and he lost his last seven matches in a row in 2016. He also finished 0-8 on the outdoor hard courts which is a big surprise when you think of the talent he possesses and it might take some reversing to get the confidence back into a position it should be.
If both play to the top of their ability you would have to think Klizan is the more likely winner between himself and Bedene on the talent levels. However tennis is so much about confidence and being able to not doubt yourself at the key moments and that is where Klizan has let himself down at times.
When he gets going he can be hard to stop as shown in his title wins, but Bedene might be consistent enough to come through this Second Round match and beat Klizan in his first Tour match of the season.
Benoit Paire - 2.5 games v Yuki Bhambri: It has been some time since Yuki Bhambri has been playing regularly on the Tour thanks to injuries and that has seen drop down to outside the top 450 in the World Rankings. Bhambri has talent as a former Junior Australian Open Champion, but getting back up the Rankings is going to take hard work over the next twelve months.
Bhambri has had three decent wins in Chennai having come through the Qualifiers, but the level of competition moves a few steps upwards in this Second Round match. Now I am the first who will criticise Benoit Paire as someone who can throw in an absolute stinker when you least expect it and is clearly someone who has been overrated over the last couple of years.
That was all down to one or two decent performances, but Paire should be too good in this one as long as he serves well and is not giving away games with unforced errors. His first serve should be a bigger weapon than it is, but Paire had a good First Round win in Chennai where he reached the Semi Final in 2016 and that should give him confidence.
It has to be respected that Bhambri has won eight matches in a row coming into this match, but most of those have been against players of a lower standard than Paire, or what Paire should be able to produce. I can imagine the first set has a couple of twists and turns, but eventually I am looking for Paire to come through with a 76, 64 win and a place in the Quarter Final.
Ivo Karlovic-Fernando Verdasco First Set Tie-Breaker: The opening Quarter Final to be played in Doha is between Ivo Karlovic and Fernando Verdasco as these two veterans battle once again on the Tour.
Picking a winner is difficult in this one and the layers have struggled to separate themselves too. I don't really want to get involved in picking a winner, but the almost odds against quotes for the first set to end in a tie-breaker looks a huge one.
All four sets that Ivo Karlovic has played this week have been tie-breakers and he is yet to create a break point while also offering up just four opportunities against his own serve. Someone like Fernando Verdasco is capable of taking his chance when it comes along as he won't back away from Karlovic and his aggressive shots can make things tough for the Croatian if he is protecting the net at break point.
The Verdasco has been working well enough this week to think he won't offer up too many chances to Karlovic as long as he doesn't self-destruct. That is always a concern with Verdasco, but the Spaniard should be good enough to at least protect his serve through the first set when the focus should be at the highest level and I do think both players will end up having to battle through a tie-breaker to decide it.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: The last three sets played by Andy Murray in Doha have been very competitive and seen him need 13, 13, and 12 games before he won those. That would suggest he is not at his very best level when you consider those have come against Jeremy Chardy and Gerard Melzer, but Murray is going to be working his way into the 2017 season with preparations being completed for the Australian Open.
Murray meets Nicolas Almagro in the Quarter Final in Doha and I think the veteran Spaniard has already had a successful week by winning back to back matches. However those have not come against anyone of the level of Murray and Almagro will have to turn back the clock if he is going to challenge the new World Number 1.
The hard court performances over the last twelve months won't cut it for Almagro but his serve has been working well in Doha. Unfortunately Almagro has thrown in some poor games behind serve and doing that against Murray will be much harder to recover.
It does have to be said that Murray needs to improve his own serving from the last couple of matches having allowed opponents too many looks into his games. I do think that is an area that Murray can quickly improve and I do think Almagro is going to have a few problems protecting serve against someone who returns as well as Murray and who will look to put the Spaniard in some awkward positions on the court.
After a challenge in the first set, I think Murray will eventually wear down Almagro in a 64, 62 win and move into the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Alize Cornet + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Aljaz Bedene - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic-Fernando Verdasco First Set Tie-Breaker @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-8, - 4.76 Units (28 Units Staked, - 17% Yield)
Tuesday, 3 January 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (January 3rd)
The majority of the big names have begun their 2017 Tennis season as we reach the end of the First Round of the various tournaments being played around the world as preparations for the Australian Open continue.
I've never understood the positioning of the opening Grand Slam event of the season which begins in the third week of the new season but it does mean the year begins with a bang. However I would be working on having that event in Australia played in February at the earliest and that at least gives the players a month to build their rhythm and put some matches in the bank before heading to Melbourne Park.
The picks had a good start on the opening day of picks made in the 2017 season with the four players in action returning a 3-1 record. I will have four more picks from the Tuesday offering which can be read below.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 games v Julia Goerges: The opening match in the 2017 for Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Julia Goerges could have been easier for both players and this looks like a quality match in Auckland. This does look like a season in which both Pavlyuchenkova and Goerges will want to show some improvement on the Singles Tour especially the Russian player who had fewer wins in 2016 than she did in 2015.
You have to like what Pavlyuchenkova and Goerges can do on the court when producing their very best tennis, but suffice to say that the consistency is not at the level they would be expecting. The first serve is going to be key for both players as it gives them a chance to set up the points and dictate the rallies with both looking to produce the first big strike to move into control of the rallies.
It also has to be expected that both Pavlyuchenkova and Goerges will look to attack the second serves they see while both are also very comfortable at the net. I do think Goerges has the slightly stronger movement around the court, but Pavlyuchenkova has an edge in the power department.
It is the Russian's strength that I feel will be a difference maker in this First Round match and I think she will have a little more success at the big moments in this one. I do think Goerges can be a dangerous player when she is at her very best, but Pavlyuchenkova has the power to find a way to get the German on the back foot. After a battle through the first set, I will look for Pavlyuchenkova to come through with a 76, 64 win.
Paul-Henri Mathieu - 1.5 games v Gerard Melzer: These two players meet in Doha at opposite ends of their career spectrum with Gerard Melzer doing enough on the Challenger circuit to build Ranking points to open this season on the regular Tour. It looks like Paul-Henri Mathieu is slipping down the World Rankings now he is close to turning 35 years old, but the desire remains for the Frenchman.
It is Melzer who comes into this match higher in the World Rankings than Mathieu, but the Frenchman is rightly favoured when you think of the limited tennis the Austrian plays on the hard courts. He almost exclusively plays on the clay courts and it will be interesting to see how Melzer copes playing at the highest level on a consistent basis for the first time in his career.
The layers have got the right favourite in the match, but Mathieu is not an overwhelming one because of his poor form over the last few months of the 2016 season. He is also a player that struggles with his consistency even more than a few years ago as age is perhaps getting the better of the Frenchman, but I still anticipate he is going to be too good for a player that really might have some tough experiences at this level.
Mathieu has to serve well and keep the foot down if he does get in front and I think he is capable of doing that in this match. It could potentially go the distance with the inconsistent performances Mathieu can produce within the same match, but I think the Frenchman moves through with a narrow cover of this number.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: There have been times I have seen Andrey Kuznetsov and seen the potential for this player to move into the top 20 of the World Rankings, but others when I wonder how he cracked into the top 100. 2017 will be a season in which Kuznetsov looks to produce more consistent results across the board to improve his current World Ranking, but he has a tough opener when facing Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Doha.
It is also a difficult match for Tsonga who will be looking to try and move back up into the top 10 of the World Rankings this season having finished in the Number 12 spot last season. That was mainly down to injuries affecting his chances and I do think Tsonga is still a dangerous player on the Tour even if the consistency to challenge the very top players is a little erratic.
That was always the case for Tsonga even in his best years, but I do think he is still a steady enough player to maintain his position in the World Rankings through the course of the season. The big serve and forehand combination continues to make Tsonga very dangerous although he will need to be at his best to counter the Kuznetsov serve if he is going to make life a little easier in this one.
Getting a few more serves back in play will give Kuznetsov the chance to beat himself which can be the case with the risk taking Russian. With the power that Tsonga has to counter Kuznetsov, I think the higher Ranked player will end up having a little too much over two sets and come through with a 64, 64 win.
Tomas Berdych - 5.5 games v Alessandro Giannessi: Tomas Berdych had a couple of injury issues which prevented him from making it back to the ATP World Tour Finals in November, but I am not sure he is on a permanent regression down the World Rankings. The tournament in Doha is a chance for Berdych to show that he is still a force with the likes of Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic in the field, and I do think he can get the better of Alessandro Giannessi in this First Round match.
Berdych has to respect the fact that Giannessi has come through a couple of Qualifiers here impressively and the Italian is a left-handed player which does take a few games to get used to. He isn't going to overpower Berdych, but Giannessi has some quality shots in his arsenal and is likely to throw some surprises at his higher Ranked opponent with drop shots used where possible.
There were some struggles for Berdych at the back end of last season having won the title in Shenzhen and then going 2-4 in his final six matches before deciding to end his season. However I think the last few weeks will have given him time to get healthier and I think the power from his side of the court is going to put the pressure on Giannessi.
Some of the serving from Berdych in the second half of the season was not up to the standard you would expect from him and he needs to protect serve better than he did. Giving away any breaks in this one might make it too difficult to cover the number, but I think Berdych will have the majority of break point chances and can wear down Giannessi in a 64, 62 win.
MY PICKS: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Paul-Henri Mathieu - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-1, + 3.68 Units (8 Units Staked, + 46% Yield)
I've never understood the positioning of the opening Grand Slam event of the season which begins in the third week of the new season but it does mean the year begins with a bang. However I would be working on having that event in Australia played in February at the earliest and that at least gives the players a month to build their rhythm and put some matches in the bank before heading to Melbourne Park.
The picks had a good start on the opening day of picks made in the 2017 season with the four players in action returning a 3-1 record. I will have four more picks from the Tuesday offering which can be read below.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 games v Julia Goerges: The opening match in the 2017 for Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Julia Goerges could have been easier for both players and this looks like a quality match in Auckland. This does look like a season in which both Pavlyuchenkova and Goerges will want to show some improvement on the Singles Tour especially the Russian player who had fewer wins in 2016 than she did in 2015.
You have to like what Pavlyuchenkova and Goerges can do on the court when producing their very best tennis, but suffice to say that the consistency is not at the level they would be expecting. The first serve is going to be key for both players as it gives them a chance to set up the points and dictate the rallies with both looking to produce the first big strike to move into control of the rallies.
It also has to be expected that both Pavlyuchenkova and Goerges will look to attack the second serves they see while both are also very comfortable at the net. I do think Goerges has the slightly stronger movement around the court, but Pavlyuchenkova has an edge in the power department.
It is the Russian's strength that I feel will be a difference maker in this First Round match and I think she will have a little more success at the big moments in this one. I do think Goerges can be a dangerous player when she is at her very best, but Pavlyuchenkova has the power to find a way to get the German on the back foot. After a battle through the first set, I will look for Pavlyuchenkova to come through with a 76, 64 win.
Paul-Henri Mathieu - 1.5 games v Gerard Melzer: These two players meet in Doha at opposite ends of their career spectrum with Gerard Melzer doing enough on the Challenger circuit to build Ranking points to open this season on the regular Tour. It looks like Paul-Henri Mathieu is slipping down the World Rankings now he is close to turning 35 years old, but the desire remains for the Frenchman.
It is Melzer who comes into this match higher in the World Rankings than Mathieu, but the Frenchman is rightly favoured when you think of the limited tennis the Austrian plays on the hard courts. He almost exclusively plays on the clay courts and it will be interesting to see how Melzer copes playing at the highest level on a consistent basis for the first time in his career.
The layers have got the right favourite in the match, but Mathieu is not an overwhelming one because of his poor form over the last few months of the 2016 season. He is also a player that struggles with his consistency even more than a few years ago as age is perhaps getting the better of the Frenchman, but I still anticipate he is going to be too good for a player that really might have some tough experiences at this level.
Mathieu has to serve well and keep the foot down if he does get in front and I think he is capable of doing that in this match. It could potentially go the distance with the inconsistent performances Mathieu can produce within the same match, but I think the Frenchman moves through with a narrow cover of this number.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: There have been times I have seen Andrey Kuznetsov and seen the potential for this player to move into the top 20 of the World Rankings, but others when I wonder how he cracked into the top 100. 2017 will be a season in which Kuznetsov looks to produce more consistent results across the board to improve his current World Ranking, but he has a tough opener when facing Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Doha.
It is also a difficult match for Tsonga who will be looking to try and move back up into the top 10 of the World Rankings this season having finished in the Number 12 spot last season. That was mainly down to injuries affecting his chances and I do think Tsonga is still a dangerous player on the Tour even if the consistency to challenge the very top players is a little erratic.
That was always the case for Tsonga even in his best years, but I do think he is still a steady enough player to maintain his position in the World Rankings through the course of the season. The big serve and forehand combination continues to make Tsonga very dangerous although he will need to be at his best to counter the Kuznetsov serve if he is going to make life a little easier in this one.
Getting a few more serves back in play will give Kuznetsov the chance to beat himself which can be the case with the risk taking Russian. With the power that Tsonga has to counter Kuznetsov, I think the higher Ranked player will end up having a little too much over two sets and come through with a 64, 64 win.
Tomas Berdych - 5.5 games v Alessandro Giannessi: Tomas Berdych had a couple of injury issues which prevented him from making it back to the ATP World Tour Finals in November, but I am not sure he is on a permanent regression down the World Rankings. The tournament in Doha is a chance for Berdych to show that he is still a force with the likes of Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic in the field, and I do think he can get the better of Alessandro Giannessi in this First Round match.
Berdych has to respect the fact that Giannessi has come through a couple of Qualifiers here impressively and the Italian is a left-handed player which does take a few games to get used to. He isn't going to overpower Berdych, but Giannessi has some quality shots in his arsenal and is likely to throw some surprises at his higher Ranked opponent with drop shots used where possible.
There were some struggles for Berdych at the back end of last season having won the title in Shenzhen and then going 2-4 in his final six matches before deciding to end his season. However I think the last few weeks will have given him time to get healthier and I think the power from his side of the court is going to put the pressure on Giannessi.
Some of the serving from Berdych in the second half of the season was not up to the standard you would expect from him and he needs to protect serve better than he did. Giving away any breaks in this one might make it too difficult to cover the number, but I think Berdych will have the majority of break point chances and can wear down Giannessi in a 64, 62 win.
MY PICKS: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Paul-Henri Mathieu - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-1, + 3.68 Units (8 Units Staked, + 46% Yield)
Friday, 15 January 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (January 16th)
The Australian Open draw was made on Friday morning in Melbourne Park and the big news is obviously the fact that Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are Seeded to meet in the Semi Final after competing in the last two Men's Grand Slam Finals at Wimbledon and the US Open.
To be honest, I think this part of the season is not the most favourable for Roger Federer who has clearly put his biggest stock in the summer months with the last two Grand Slams as well as the Rio Olympics occupying his thoughts. Of course Federer goes into any Slam with a real belief he can win, even the French Open, but I do think the latter two Slams are much more favourable for his game.
The Women's draw looks wide open with the injuries that have affected the top players in the World Rankings, while Serena Williams would have hoped for a much more straight forward match than facing Camila Giorgi in the First Round.
One other match that caught my eye was Venus Williams versus Johanna Konta in the First Round as I really thought the British player could have a big 2016 season to follow up the form she showed in the latter half of 2015. That is a very difficult draw for her though and I am not sure Konta has shown enough in the first couple of weeks of 2016 to think she is in line for a big run as she had at the US Open.
This week the picks have had a good time, but Friday proved to be one of the poorer days of the week with the two Semi Finals in Auckland going the other way as I thought they would. David Ferrer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga won their first sets by the same 63 scoreline that put them in a strong position before losing the remaining two sets to be knocked out of the tournament.
Eugenie Bouchard - 3.5 games v Alize Cornet: This has already been a very big week for Eugenie Bouchard who is looking to bounce back from a poor 2015 season by the standards she has set for herself. Wins over the likes of Camila Giorgi and Dominika Cibulkova show that the confidence is improving, something that was noticed at the US Open, and Bouchard will be desperate to win her first title since 2014 and only her second on the Tour.
That is hard to accept for a player that has been tipped to go to the top of the World Rankings in the women's game and Bouchard herself has not been completely happy with her performances. Despite the win over the talented and tough Cibulkova, Bouchard has admitted that she wants to play better than she has shown.
I think she will have every chance to add the Hobart title to her trophy cabinet against Alize Cornet who has had a solid week herself and had a walkover in the Quarter Final. The Frenchwoman has slipped down the World Rankings herself and this has been an important week for her confidence too, but Cornet has not had to play the level of talent that Bouchard has and this is the toughest match she will have played.
Cornet can frustrate Bouchard and she is capable of knocking off any player on her day. However, I think Bouchard has shown enough this week to get through the challenge Cornet has presented and I believe she will battle through for a confidence boosting 64, 64 win.
Jack Sock - 1.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: This is perhaps not the Final that anyone really expected on Saturday in Auckland after both of these players surprised me with wins over David Ferrer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, the top two Seeds in the Semi Finals. Out of the two, I think Jack Sock has the chance to win his second title and prevent Roberto Bautista Agut winning his third.
It should be quite a good match to watch as both players look like they can match up well against one another.
Jack Sock has the power and the serve to give Bautista Agut an issue, but the Spaniard will feel he can use his better movement and superior backhand wing to extract errors from the American. However, my feeling is that Sock is able to bring his forehand into play for long enough to win enough rallies to come through and win this Final and add to his two wins over Bautista Agut in 2015.
It was the protection of his serve that helped Sock win both matches, although they were very close and I think it will be the serve that helps him win again. If his serve is working, Sock knows he will get his chances on the return to break serve and I expect that will help him win a tight match 76, 64.
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Victor Troicki: I think the favourites can make it a clean sweep of wins in the Finals to be played on Saturday and I like their chances to all cover the spreads that have been asked of them. Grigor Dimitrov is looking to recover from a disappointing 2015 season by putting this title away and giving him some momentum to take into the Australian Open which begins in a couple of days.
2015 was arguably a better year for Victor Troicki than it was for Dimitrov as he recovered his World Ranking following an enforced lay off from the Tour thanks to failing a drug test. In actual fact he simply asked to miss a day due to feeling unwell before doing the test a day later, but that didn't matter and he was forced off the Tour.
Both have had to battle the weather as well as their opponents to get through to this Final and I think Dimitrov may have an edge when it comes to physical well-being. Troicki had to battle through the distance in his Quarter Final and Semi Final which was played on Friday, while Dimitrov just had to put the finishing touches to his own Quarter Final win before winning his Semi Final with room to spare.
These two players met last week in Brisbane and Dimitrov won a three set match which was close for the first couple of sets. I think he is the better player and his physical fitness looks like it will be in a superior position to Troicki's in this Final and I think it might be a little 'easier' than last week as he wins this one 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Eugenie Bouchard - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-4, + 5.92 Units (24 Units Staked, + 24.67% Yield)
To be honest, I think this part of the season is not the most favourable for Roger Federer who has clearly put his biggest stock in the summer months with the last two Grand Slams as well as the Rio Olympics occupying his thoughts. Of course Federer goes into any Slam with a real belief he can win, even the French Open, but I do think the latter two Slams are much more favourable for his game.
The Women's draw looks wide open with the injuries that have affected the top players in the World Rankings, while Serena Williams would have hoped for a much more straight forward match than facing Camila Giorgi in the First Round.
One other match that caught my eye was Venus Williams versus Johanna Konta in the First Round as I really thought the British player could have a big 2016 season to follow up the form she showed in the latter half of 2015. That is a very difficult draw for her though and I am not sure Konta has shown enough in the first couple of weeks of 2016 to think she is in line for a big run as she had at the US Open.
This week the picks have had a good time, but Friday proved to be one of the poorer days of the week with the two Semi Finals in Auckland going the other way as I thought they would. David Ferrer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga won their first sets by the same 63 scoreline that put them in a strong position before losing the remaining two sets to be knocked out of the tournament.
Eugenie Bouchard - 3.5 games v Alize Cornet: This has already been a very big week for Eugenie Bouchard who is looking to bounce back from a poor 2015 season by the standards she has set for herself. Wins over the likes of Camila Giorgi and Dominika Cibulkova show that the confidence is improving, something that was noticed at the US Open, and Bouchard will be desperate to win her first title since 2014 and only her second on the Tour.
That is hard to accept for a player that has been tipped to go to the top of the World Rankings in the women's game and Bouchard herself has not been completely happy with her performances. Despite the win over the talented and tough Cibulkova, Bouchard has admitted that she wants to play better than she has shown.
I think she will have every chance to add the Hobart title to her trophy cabinet against Alize Cornet who has had a solid week herself and had a walkover in the Quarter Final. The Frenchwoman has slipped down the World Rankings herself and this has been an important week for her confidence too, but Cornet has not had to play the level of talent that Bouchard has and this is the toughest match she will have played.
Cornet can frustrate Bouchard and she is capable of knocking off any player on her day. However, I think Bouchard has shown enough this week to get through the challenge Cornet has presented and I believe she will battle through for a confidence boosting 64, 64 win.
Jack Sock - 1.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: This is perhaps not the Final that anyone really expected on Saturday in Auckland after both of these players surprised me with wins over David Ferrer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, the top two Seeds in the Semi Finals. Out of the two, I think Jack Sock has the chance to win his second title and prevent Roberto Bautista Agut winning his third.
It should be quite a good match to watch as both players look like they can match up well against one another.
Jack Sock has the power and the serve to give Bautista Agut an issue, but the Spaniard will feel he can use his better movement and superior backhand wing to extract errors from the American. However, my feeling is that Sock is able to bring his forehand into play for long enough to win enough rallies to come through and win this Final and add to his two wins over Bautista Agut in 2015.
It was the protection of his serve that helped Sock win both matches, although they were very close and I think it will be the serve that helps him win again. If his serve is working, Sock knows he will get his chances on the return to break serve and I expect that will help him win a tight match 76, 64.
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Victor Troicki: I think the favourites can make it a clean sweep of wins in the Finals to be played on Saturday and I like their chances to all cover the spreads that have been asked of them. Grigor Dimitrov is looking to recover from a disappointing 2015 season by putting this title away and giving him some momentum to take into the Australian Open which begins in a couple of days.
2015 was arguably a better year for Victor Troicki than it was for Dimitrov as he recovered his World Ranking following an enforced lay off from the Tour thanks to failing a drug test. In actual fact he simply asked to miss a day due to feeling unwell before doing the test a day later, but that didn't matter and he was forced off the Tour.
Both have had to battle the weather as well as their opponents to get through to this Final and I think Dimitrov may have an edge when it comes to physical well-being. Troicki had to battle through the distance in his Quarter Final and Semi Final which was played on Friday, while Dimitrov just had to put the finishing touches to his own Quarter Final win before winning his Semi Final with room to spare.
These two players met last week in Brisbane and Dimitrov won a three set match which was close for the first couple of sets. I think he is the better player and his physical fitness looks like it will be in a superior position to Troicki's in this Final and I think it might be a little 'easier' than last week as he wins this one 64, 64.
MY PICKS: Eugenie Bouchard - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-4, + 5.92 Units (24 Units Staked, + 24.67% Yield)
Tennis Picks 2016 (January 15th)
By the time I wake up on Friday, the draw for the Australian Open will have been made and the layers should have a few markets up for the first Grand Slam of the season. That draw is being made on Friday morning in Australia which means it should be available in the early hours of Friday morning in the United Kingdom.
Hopefully the rain that has affected the tournaments in Sydney and Hobart doesn't pitch up in Melbourne in the coming days. The event in Hobart is barely on schedule having played the Quarter Finals deep into Thursday night, but the players in Sydney will have to pull some double duty to make sure that tournament ends as scheduled.
David Ferrer - 2.5 games v Jack Sock: The first Semi Final to be played in Auckland is not going to be a straight-forward one for the Number 1 Seed here. David Ferrer has been in good form as he looks to build some momentum after losing his first match in Doha, but Jack Sock is more than capable of springing the surprise if he brings his best to the court.
I certainly expect Sock to end this season as a top 20 player in the World Rankings and he does have three impressive wins this week in his first tournament of the season. My one concern for Sock has always been his mental focus which can let him down in matches and could be his downfall in a match against a player that will play every points like it is the last.
The American definitely has the bigger serve and his top spin shots can be a problem for players, but I think Ferrer is capable of just hanging in this match which can be a difference maker. While Sock will be able to have his success, I think Ferrer's battling quality can see him recover any breaks of serve and the higher Ranked player also has the momentum behind him with the wins this week.
Sock is yet to meet someone like Ferrer this week and might be surprised by being forced to dig deeper than he has in the last two matches. He won't be used to the extended rallies he is likely to see and I think Ferrer will come through with a 76, 64 win.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: I have picked Jo-Wilfried Tsonga twice this week and I am disappointed that he has only gone 1-1 in those matches. He should have covered against Fabio Fognini in the Quarter Final on Thursday and I think he can continue the fine form shown in his first two wins.
That isn't to say Roberto Bautista Agut is going to roll over for Tsonga, but I think he will need to be at his very best to stick with the Frenchman in his current form.
We know what we are getting with Bautista Agut- he will work hard on the court with an underrated first serve setting up his points and an ability to frustrate opponents and trying to extract errors from them. However, Bautista Agut has to be able to give Tsonga something to think about on the return of serve, otherwise we could see Tsonga able to use the scoreboard to build up the pressure on Bautista Agut.
The last two times they have played one another has seen Bautista Agut struggle to get involved in the Tsonga service games. If that is the case again, I would expect Tsonga to come through this one and move into the Final behind a 63, 46, 64 win.
MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units) To Be Completed
Weekly Update: 7-2, + 8.46 Units (18 Units Staked, + 47% Yield)
Hopefully the rain that has affected the tournaments in Sydney and Hobart doesn't pitch up in Melbourne in the coming days. The event in Hobart is barely on schedule having played the Quarter Finals deep into Thursday night, but the players in Sydney will have to pull some double duty to make sure that tournament ends as scheduled.
David Ferrer - 2.5 games v Jack Sock: The first Semi Final to be played in Auckland is not going to be a straight-forward one for the Number 1 Seed here. David Ferrer has been in good form as he looks to build some momentum after losing his first match in Doha, but Jack Sock is more than capable of springing the surprise if he brings his best to the court.
I certainly expect Sock to end this season as a top 20 player in the World Rankings and he does have three impressive wins this week in his first tournament of the season. My one concern for Sock has always been his mental focus which can let him down in matches and could be his downfall in a match against a player that will play every points like it is the last.
The American definitely has the bigger serve and his top spin shots can be a problem for players, but I think Ferrer is capable of just hanging in this match which can be a difference maker. While Sock will be able to have his success, I think Ferrer's battling quality can see him recover any breaks of serve and the higher Ranked player also has the momentum behind him with the wins this week.
Sock is yet to meet someone like Ferrer this week and might be surprised by being forced to dig deeper than he has in the last two matches. He won't be used to the extended rallies he is likely to see and I think Ferrer will come through with a 76, 64 win.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: I have picked Jo-Wilfried Tsonga twice this week and I am disappointed that he has only gone 1-1 in those matches. He should have covered against Fabio Fognini in the Quarter Final on Thursday and I think he can continue the fine form shown in his first two wins.
That isn't to say Roberto Bautista Agut is going to roll over for Tsonga, but I think he will need to be at his very best to stick with the Frenchman in his current form.
We know what we are getting with Bautista Agut- he will work hard on the court with an underrated first serve setting up his points and an ability to frustrate opponents and trying to extract errors from them. However, Bautista Agut has to be able to give Tsonga something to think about on the return of serve, otherwise we could see Tsonga able to use the scoreboard to build up the pressure on Bautista Agut.
The last two times they have played one another has seen Bautista Agut struggle to get involved in the Tsonga service games. If that is the case again, I would expect Tsonga to come through this one and move into the Final behind a 63, 46, 64 win.
MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units) To Be Completed
Weekly Update: 7-2, + 8.46 Units (18 Units Staked, + 47% Yield)
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