It would have been an incredibly frustrating week if Andrey Rublev had not managed to win his Semi Final against Guido Pella on Friday, but ultimately it has still be a tough week.
The first week of the new tennis season can be tough to really get a read on and there are usually a number of upsets. That has shown up so far this week with some of the names that have reached the business end of the events, while the big names are all about getting ready for Melbourne and the Australian Open.
This week could have been worse, but I was hoping for a little more breaks when the big points came along, but that has ultimately not been the case.
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 games v Nick Kyrgios: The best Semi Final to be played on Saturday comes at the ATP Brisbane event between Grigor Dimitrov and Nick Kyrgios. Both players have plenty of fans who wish they can fulfil the talent they have, but it will be interesting which one is going to make their breakthrough at the Grand Slam level first.
Both Dimitrov and Kyrgios have had solid showings in the Slams before, but they have the kind of talent that has seen them both tipped to be Slam Winners.
I am still not convinced about Dimitrov because he can produce some sloppy moments, but his performance at the ATP Finals will have given him a boost in confidence. The Bulgarian has had to work hard to win his two matches so far this week, but Nick Kyrgios also has had a couple of long matches on his return from injury.
The Australian may not have a lot of good press, but his charisma certainly brings eyes onto the court for his matches. Kyrgios has a big all around game, but mentally there is plenty of room for improvement although I do think that will come with maturity as he understands what he wants from his tennis career.
While having a couple of good wins, I do think Kyrgios is still not quite up to full speed after making a return from an injury that ended in his 2017 season. At the moment Dimitrov is perhaps playing at almost his top level and I think he will make it 3-0 in the head to head against Kyrgios with a narrow 7-6, 6-4 win on Saturday.
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Gilles Simon: I was worried about the head to head between Marin Cilic and Gilles Simon when picking the Croatian to win their Semi Final. After dominating the first set I didn't feel so bad, but Cilic fell apart in the second two sets and that has seen the Frenchman through to the Final in Pune.
However it can't be ignored that Simon has clearly slipped from the player he was and he is not able to defend his serve as well as he once could. The World Ranking may improve at the end of this week, but this time he is facing Kevin Anderson who has beaten him in all three previous professional matches.
Th big South African is back up to Number 14 in the World Rankings thanks to a really good US Open when reaching the Final back in September. Anderson came into 2017 with a few injury issues, but he looks much healthier this season and he has come through three matches to reach the Final.
Anderson needed to rally to beat Benoit Paire on Friday, but he should have enough energy to produce his best tennis in this Final. The big serve makes it a little easier for Anderson to at least shorten points and I expect Anderson to really get his teeth into the Simon service games which can give him every chance to win and cover.
I do think Anderson will have enough chances to do that and it is all about continuing to produce the big time serves to set up plenty of short balls to put away. I just don't think Simon defends as well as he once did, and while Anderson is not the best returner on the Tour, he has been returning well enough this week to earn a 6-4, 6-4 win.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-6, - 8.52 Units (16 Units Staked, - 53.25% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Brisbane. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brisbane. Show all posts
Saturday, 6 January 2018
Thursday, 4 January 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (January 4th)
It was a tough start to the Tennis season with the sole pick made on Wednesday failing to return a winner, but the events to open the 2018 season continue as we have reached the Quarter Final in some cases.
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 games v Johanna Konta: There were some tough moments for Johanna Konta in the second half of the 2017 season, but her two wins in Brisbane will have given her a lot of belief. In both cases Konta has managed to win a deciding set, but now she has to face Elina Svitolina who I consider a possible Grand Slam Champion in the making in 2018.
Svitolina has been a dominant winner in her two matches so far this week, but there are still some questions about whether she is able to maintain the control in matches without the lapses of concentration.
That has been part of the reason Svitolina has yet to make a serious impact in a Grand Slam event, but I do think she is an ever improving player. The serve is solid enough when Svitolina is feeling her game, while her ability off the ground is going to make her very difficult to beat.
Johanna Konta also has a decent serve, but she has yet to really employ it as effectively as she would have liked in the tournament. The problem for Konta is that she needs to be better on the serve because she doesn't have the same consistency as Svitolina from the baseline and I do think that will prove to be the difference between the players.
Perhaps the tennis under the belt this week will also have a negative effect on Konta as a little fatigue in some tough conditions would not be a big surprise. I like Svitolina to win the battle of the breaks and come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Kaia Kanepi: It's good to see Kaia Kanepi back on the Tour and playing some big time tennis and her run to the US Open Quarter Final has clearly got the confidence back into a good place.
The next few weeks are all about improving the World Ranking though and making sure Kanepi does not have to come through the Qualifiers like she did this week in Brisbane. Kanepi has been a dominant winner in each of her four matches this week, but the level of competition goes up again when facing Karolina Pliskova in the Quarter Final.
Pliskova beat Catherine Bellis very easily, and she has the kind of game that could be tough for Kanepi to deal with. The huge serve and the powerful forehand could give Pliskova the chance to dominate the rallies very early in the points, although Kanepi is likely going to put pressure on her opponent with her own serve too.
It won't be a match with a lot of long rallies and the player who can produce the most first strike tennis is going to be the one that makes it through to the Semi Final.
With that in mind, I would expect Pliskova to be the player to do that much more than Kanepi. The Pliskova serve is the superior weapon of the two and I think that is going to help her get past this opponent with a 7-5, 6-4 win.
MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 games v Johanna Konta: There were some tough moments for Johanna Konta in the second half of the 2017 season, but her two wins in Brisbane will have given her a lot of belief. In both cases Konta has managed to win a deciding set, but now she has to face Elina Svitolina who I consider a possible Grand Slam Champion in the making in 2018.
Svitolina has been a dominant winner in her two matches so far this week, but there are still some questions about whether she is able to maintain the control in matches without the lapses of concentration.
That has been part of the reason Svitolina has yet to make a serious impact in a Grand Slam event, but I do think she is an ever improving player. The serve is solid enough when Svitolina is feeling her game, while her ability off the ground is going to make her very difficult to beat.
Johanna Konta also has a decent serve, but she has yet to really employ it as effectively as she would have liked in the tournament. The problem for Konta is that she needs to be better on the serve because she doesn't have the same consistency as Svitolina from the baseline and I do think that will prove to be the difference between the players.
Perhaps the tennis under the belt this week will also have a negative effect on Konta as a little fatigue in some tough conditions would not be a big surprise. I like Svitolina to win the battle of the breaks and come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Kaia Kanepi: It's good to see Kaia Kanepi back on the Tour and playing some big time tennis and her run to the US Open Quarter Final has clearly got the confidence back into a good place.
The next few weeks are all about improving the World Ranking though and making sure Kanepi does not have to come through the Qualifiers like she did this week in Brisbane. Kanepi has been a dominant winner in each of her four matches this week, but the level of competition goes up again when facing Karolina Pliskova in the Quarter Final.
Pliskova beat Catherine Bellis very easily, and she has the kind of game that could be tough for Kanepi to deal with. The huge serve and the powerful forehand could give Pliskova the chance to dominate the rallies very early in the points, although Kanepi is likely going to put pressure on her opponent with her own serve too.
It won't be a match with a lot of long rallies and the player who can produce the most first strike tennis is going to be the one that makes it through to the Semi Final.
With that in mind, I would expect Pliskova to be the player to do that much more than Kanepi. The Pliskova serve is the superior weapon of the two and I think that is going to help her get past this opponent with a 7-5, 6-4 win.
MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Wednesday, 3 January 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (January 3rd)
It feels like only yesterday that we were seeing the end of the 2017 Tennis season, but here we go again at the beginning of another long slog for the players around the world.
This has been a busy time with the festive period meaning spending time with family and that has been the main reason I have not got round to researching any picks so far this week in the opening tournaments of the 2018 season.
That does not mean I have not shown any interest in the matches though.
With the Australian Open beginning in less than two weeks time, this is the time to see how players have gotten through their intense work to get ready for the new season. Of course all of the tournaments in the next two weeks are to prepare mentally for the first Grand Slam of the season although it looks like the men's draw is going to be extremely lopsided with a few big names still struggling with injuries.
All eyes will be on the likes of Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic and wondering if the two players who went into the 2017 season as the top two on the ATP can return and challenge the old guard of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal again.
The other big story will be Serena Williams who has been back on a tennis court for the first time since giving birth to her first child. However the American has yet to commit to the first Slam of the new season and that is likely to leave the women's draw as wide open as it has been since Williams has been absent.
Mischa Zverev - 2.5 games v Michael Mmoh: It was during the Australian swing on the Tour that Mischa Zverev found some form although that does mean he has plenty of Ranking points to defend over the next month. He has made a good start with a straight sets win in the First Round here in Brisbane and Zverev continues to be inspired by younger brother Alexander.
Zverev is favoured to beat Michael Mmoh in the Second Round even though the younger player has come through three matches to reach this stage of the tournament.
However Mmoh is facing his toughest challenge so far in the tournament and the American has not really had a lot of success at this level to this point of his young career. His serve is decent weapon, but I do wonder how Mmoh will cope with Zverev likely looking to get to the net and force his opponent to make a number of passes throughout the day.
A limited return game will need to be improved if Mmoh is to have a real impact at the main Tour level and it is a tough ask in this match. With Zverev hitting his spots and the lefty serve behind him, Mmoh might find it difficult to find the returns against someone who is also going to get up to the net and look to make his volleys.
The first set could be very close, but I do think Zverev is going to wear down Mmoh mentally in this one which will lead to a couple of loose service games. That is where the German can take advantage and help him win this match and cover the number in a 7-6, 6-4 win in the Second Round.
MY PICKS: Mischa Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
This has been a busy time with the festive period meaning spending time with family and that has been the main reason I have not got round to researching any picks so far this week in the opening tournaments of the 2018 season.
That does not mean I have not shown any interest in the matches though.
With the Australian Open beginning in less than two weeks time, this is the time to see how players have gotten through their intense work to get ready for the new season. Of course all of the tournaments in the next two weeks are to prepare mentally for the first Grand Slam of the season although it looks like the men's draw is going to be extremely lopsided with a few big names still struggling with injuries.
All eyes will be on the likes of Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic and wondering if the two players who went into the 2017 season as the top two on the ATP can return and challenge the old guard of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal again.
The other big story will be Serena Williams who has been back on a tennis court for the first time since giving birth to her first child. However the American has yet to commit to the first Slam of the new season and that is likely to leave the women's draw as wide open as it has been since Williams has been absent.
Mischa Zverev - 2.5 games v Michael Mmoh: It was during the Australian swing on the Tour that Mischa Zverev found some form although that does mean he has plenty of Ranking points to defend over the next month. He has made a good start with a straight sets win in the First Round here in Brisbane and Zverev continues to be inspired by younger brother Alexander.
Zverev is favoured to beat Michael Mmoh in the Second Round even though the younger player has come through three matches to reach this stage of the tournament.
However Mmoh is facing his toughest challenge so far in the tournament and the American has not really had a lot of success at this level to this point of his young career. His serve is decent weapon, but I do wonder how Mmoh will cope with Zverev likely looking to get to the net and force his opponent to make a number of passes throughout the day.
A limited return game will need to be improved if Mmoh is to have a real impact at the main Tour level and it is a tough ask in this match. With Zverev hitting his spots and the lefty serve behind him, Mmoh might find it difficult to find the returns against someone who is also going to get up to the net and look to make his volleys.
The first set could be very close, but I do think Zverev is going to wear down Mmoh mentally in this one which will lead to a couple of loose service games. That is where the German can take advantage and help him win this match and cover the number in a 7-6, 6-4 win in the Second Round.
MY PICKS: Mischa Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Friday, 6 January 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (January 7th)
The tennis tournaments that have opened the 2017 season get down to the business end of the week as at least three Finals are played on Saturday with two other events completing their Semi Final matches.
Friday was a little disappointing when you think Stan Wawrinka had a chance to serve out the match at 5-2 in the third set that would have produced a cover and Rafael Nadal was seemingly completely in control of his match until the eighth game of the second set.
I was a little irritated with my Albert Ramos-Vinolas pick, but those things happen over the course of an eleven month season and it is no point being too annoyed by it.
Ana Konjuh - 2.5 games v Lauren Davis: The Final in Auckland is being played by one player who has big things expected of her in her career and another who is perhaps surpassing all expectations already. Ana Konjuh has been labelled a future star of the WTA Tour and she is in a position to win her second career title this week having previously won the event in Nottingham.
That was over eighteen months ago and Konjuh is a better player these days coming off her best year on the Tour. At 19 years old there is an expectation that she can take another step forward and her performances in Auckland will certainly have given her some confidence to do that.
It won't be an easy match against Lauren Davis who has the experience of playing in Finals on the Tour in 2016 although she is yet to win a title. The American does have to work a little harder behind the serve without being blessed with the power to earn too many cheap points and that is where Konjuh should have an edge with the chance of overturning the result between these players in Auckland three years ago.
Back then both were much more inexperienced, but I think the upside in the Konjuh game is bigger at this moment. She should be able to use the first serve to set herself up in the points in this one and I think Konjuh will have the majority of the break points while coming through with a 75, 64 win and taking the title home.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Alize Cornet: While Karolina Pliskova had to win a tough Semi Final, Alize Cornet was the beneficiary of a Garbine Muguruza retirement and has had longer to prepare for this Final. That might be the only reason that she is considered a shorter priced underdog than she was in the Semi Final because I do think Pliskova has been in better form than Muguruza over the last few months.
I was backing Muguruza to cover a slightly bigger number than this one against Cornet in the Semi Final and I do think some of the same factors apply here.
Pliskova is arguably serving better than anyone on the WTA Tour at this point of her career, and I include Serena Williams who had a tough time in testing conditions in Auckland this week, and that gives Pliskova an edge in this Final. Even when she drops a couple of points on serve, Pliskova has the power to hammer through her opponents and she showed all of those skills in the win over Elina Svitolina on Friday.
There is little doubt that Cornet is going to offer some chances to break on her own service games and I do feel Pliskova might be the big threat to win the Australian Open title when that tournament begins next week. Pliskova has proven to be a very effective front runner and I think she is going to have a little too much for Cornet and level up the head to head having lost their previous match.
I expect a lot of the positive shots to be coming from Pliskova's side of the court and Cornet playing reactive tennis, and that should eventually lead to a 64, 63 win for the favourite in Brisbane.
Andy Murray - 1.5 games v Novak Djokovic: When I watched the ATP World Tour Finals conclusion for a second time, I found it hard to predict how long it would take Novak Djokovic to get his aura back. All of the conditions looked right for him to not only beat Andy Murray but finish the season as the World Number 1 yet Djokovic was beaten fairly comfortably on the day.
That was a concern and potentially a real shift in the dynamics between these two players, but Murray has to underline that by winning this title in Doha by beating Djokovic in the Final. I think he is capable of doing that with Djokovic not quite looking up to full speed in narrow wins over Jan-Lennard Struff and particularly in the Semi Final against Fernando Verdasco who should have beaten Djokovic.
I do think Murray has room for improvement in his own service games, but he looked like he was peaking at the right time with an impressive win over Tomas Berdych in the Semi Final. Murray will have to serve well in this one to keep Djokovic at bay, but I do think the Serb is not at full confidence with his own serve and I do think Murray will be able to attack him.
Murray should have the edge in the rallies as his confidence has to be in a lot stronger place than Djokovic at this moment and it could be a huge mental blow ahead of the Australian Open. You can't ever rule out Djokovic, but I think that is thinking back to how he was playing this time last year and not the more recent performances we have seen from his racquet.
It will take some time for Djokovic to rebuild his confidence to those levels, but Murray is playing at a higher level at the moment and I expect he won't miss the opportunities that Struff and Verdasco had against the former World Number 1. I like Murray to win this one by a convincing margin which will only harden him as favourite to win the first Grand Slam of the 2017 season.
MY PICKS: Ana Konjuh - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 13-15, - 5.68 Units (56 Units Staked, - 10.14% Yield)
Friday was a little disappointing when you think Stan Wawrinka had a chance to serve out the match at 5-2 in the third set that would have produced a cover and Rafael Nadal was seemingly completely in control of his match until the eighth game of the second set.
I was a little irritated with my Albert Ramos-Vinolas pick, but those things happen over the course of an eleven month season and it is no point being too annoyed by it.
Ana Konjuh - 2.5 games v Lauren Davis: The Final in Auckland is being played by one player who has big things expected of her in her career and another who is perhaps surpassing all expectations already. Ana Konjuh has been labelled a future star of the WTA Tour and she is in a position to win her second career title this week having previously won the event in Nottingham.
That was over eighteen months ago and Konjuh is a better player these days coming off her best year on the Tour. At 19 years old there is an expectation that she can take another step forward and her performances in Auckland will certainly have given her some confidence to do that.
It won't be an easy match against Lauren Davis who has the experience of playing in Finals on the Tour in 2016 although she is yet to win a title. The American does have to work a little harder behind the serve without being blessed with the power to earn too many cheap points and that is where Konjuh should have an edge with the chance of overturning the result between these players in Auckland three years ago.
Back then both were much more inexperienced, but I think the upside in the Konjuh game is bigger at this moment. She should be able to use the first serve to set herself up in the points in this one and I think Konjuh will have the majority of the break points while coming through with a 75, 64 win and taking the title home.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Alize Cornet: While Karolina Pliskova had to win a tough Semi Final, Alize Cornet was the beneficiary of a Garbine Muguruza retirement and has had longer to prepare for this Final. That might be the only reason that she is considered a shorter priced underdog than she was in the Semi Final because I do think Pliskova has been in better form than Muguruza over the last few months.
I was backing Muguruza to cover a slightly bigger number than this one against Cornet in the Semi Final and I do think some of the same factors apply here.
Pliskova is arguably serving better than anyone on the WTA Tour at this point of her career, and I include Serena Williams who had a tough time in testing conditions in Auckland this week, and that gives Pliskova an edge in this Final. Even when she drops a couple of points on serve, Pliskova has the power to hammer through her opponents and she showed all of those skills in the win over Elina Svitolina on Friday.
There is little doubt that Cornet is going to offer some chances to break on her own service games and I do feel Pliskova might be the big threat to win the Australian Open title when that tournament begins next week. Pliskova has proven to be a very effective front runner and I think she is going to have a little too much for Cornet and level up the head to head having lost their previous match.
I expect a lot of the positive shots to be coming from Pliskova's side of the court and Cornet playing reactive tennis, and that should eventually lead to a 64, 63 win for the favourite in Brisbane.
Andy Murray - 1.5 games v Novak Djokovic: When I watched the ATP World Tour Finals conclusion for a second time, I found it hard to predict how long it would take Novak Djokovic to get his aura back. All of the conditions looked right for him to not only beat Andy Murray but finish the season as the World Number 1 yet Djokovic was beaten fairly comfortably on the day.
That was a concern and potentially a real shift in the dynamics between these two players, but Murray has to underline that by winning this title in Doha by beating Djokovic in the Final. I think he is capable of doing that with Djokovic not quite looking up to full speed in narrow wins over Jan-Lennard Struff and particularly in the Semi Final against Fernando Verdasco who should have beaten Djokovic.
I do think Murray has room for improvement in his own service games, but he looked like he was peaking at the right time with an impressive win over Tomas Berdych in the Semi Final. Murray will have to serve well in this one to keep Djokovic at bay, but I do think the Serb is not at full confidence with his own serve and I do think Murray will be able to attack him.
Murray should have the edge in the rallies as his confidence has to be in a lot stronger place than Djokovic at this moment and it could be a huge mental blow ahead of the Australian Open. You can't ever rule out Djokovic, but I think that is thinking back to how he was playing this time last year and not the more recent performances we have seen from his racquet.
It will take some time for Djokovic to rebuild his confidence to those levels, but Murray is playing at a higher level at the moment and I expect he won't miss the opportunities that Struff and Verdasco had against the former World Number 1. I like Murray to win this one by a convincing margin which will only harden him as favourite to win the first Grand Slam of the 2017 season.
MY PICKS: Ana Konjuh - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 13-15, - 5.68 Units (56 Units Staked, - 10.14% Yield)
Tennis Picks 2017 (January 6th)
Things could have turned around completely for this week if I had a little more fortune with the Aljaz Bedene pick on Thursday and he had covered in his win rather than throwing away a late break of serve.
Thursday still had a big impact on the earlier losses this week but I am looking to turn this week around completely over the next couple of days when the tournaments come to a close. We then head to a couple of events next week in the lead up to the draw for the Australian Open which takes place next week just a few days before the first Grand Slam of the season begins.
One of the news stories that did pique my interest on Thursday was the news that last year's Junior Boy's Australian Open Champion has been charged with fixing a match. It is all alleged at the moment, but it would be a real eye opener for the authorities who have spent a year really burying their head in the sands about events that seemingly have been happening regularly for anyone who follows the right people on Twitter.
There are some people out there flagging up the 'dodgy' matches, but nothing has really been done about it in my opinion and now it will be interesting to see the follow up to this story regarding Oliver Anderson who is now going to be tarred with the brush of being a 'match fixer'. That will be the case even if this case is eventually thrown out and makes it a tough career for him going forward with every match scrutinised more than most.
Anderson was a player that people had some solid hopes for, but that looks a long way away at this moment.
On Friday we move onto the Quarter Finals in the cases of most of the tournaments being played this week, although we have also got to the Semi Final in a couple of the events. That means there are some big matches out on the courts as players look to throw down their markers for the 2017 Australian Open.
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Kyle Edmund: The way Stan Wawrinka recovered in his match against Victor Troicki and then took complete control of the match has to be a confidence boost for the Swiss player who will go into the Australian Open as the Number 4 Seed.
He has a chance to really lay down a marker for what he can achieve in Melbourne Park if he can go on to win the title in Brisbane. However Wawrinka has some big challenges to come even if I expect the first of those to be one that he can deal with relatively comfortably.
2017 could be a really big season for Kyle Edmund who is looking to take the next step in his career and was playing well before Lucas Pouille had to pull out of their Second Round match. Edmund will feel he can get a little closer to Wawrinka having played against him in Shanghai in a match that was closer than the final scoreline might have suggested.
He will need to have more success against the Wawrinka serve having struggled outside of one break of serve, especially as it may ease some of the pressure that Edmund will feel when trying to protect his own service games. I still think Edmund does play too many loose games on his own serve and someone like Wawrinka is good enough to take advantage of those lapses of concentration if he is not being taxed too much on his own serve.
I do think this match is still a little early for Edmund if Wawrinka can play to a similar level as he did in the win over Troicki. While Edmund can have more points won on the return, I still believe Wawrinka can come through with a 63, 64 win to match the score in Shanghai.
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Milos Raonic: These players met in a pre-season tournament at the Mubadala Tennis Championships and it was Rafael Nadal who came through against Milos Raonic in three sets. Things are going to be a little different when they play in this Quarter Final, but I am going to back Nadal to come through with a victory and a cover.
The spread is a difficult one when you think of the way Raonic can serve and him bringing his very best in that department will make it very difficult for Nadal. However the Spaniard has tended to find a way to get himself into the points and will then feel he can out-rally Raonic, although the latter has been an improving player over the last twelve months.
My issue with Raonic is that he needs to be very close to his ultimate level if he is going to win these kind of events and Grand Slam events and that brings its own pressure. While we have seen Raonic produce some top tennis, notably at the O2 Arena at the World Tour Finals in November, that level is yet to be found consistently.
I also like the way Nadal has been playing this week having won the Mubadala Tennic Championships which will have given him confidence. The serve can still be a little bit of a concern for him, but Nadal has looked after that aspect of his game well enough to think he can win this match. It will be a battle, but I like Nadal to win a tie-breaker and use the momentum to find a break of the Raonic serve which helps him cover this number and move into the Semi Final in Brisbane.
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 games v Alize Cornet: Anyone who saw the Alize Cornet win over Dominika Cibulkova in the Quarter Final in Brisbane on Thursday will perhaps have seen the Frenchwoman at her very best. She was serving effectively until the middle of the second set and put Cibulkova under pressure on the return with some very clever shot selection allowing her to keep the Slovakian off-balance.
It is going to be a different kind of test for Cornet when she faces Garbine Muguruza who is capable of producing some huge first serves which will be much more difficult to fight off than the Cibulkova serve. The one concern that remains with Muguruza is whether she is capable of backing up those serves without the errors that have blighted her game over the last six months.
An impressive win over Svetlana Kuznetsova in the Quarter Final might have given Muguruza a little more confidence in her ability to produce her best tennis when it matters. She will need to remain patient in this one against an opponent like Cornet who will look to redirect the pace back at the Spaniard and is also capable of making sure she gets more balls back in play than opponents expect.
Cornet has to show she has recovered from her tough Quarter Final which involved a lot of running around the court and both a physical and mental battle which she had to overcome. It can be difficult to do that without too much rest and I think that is a problem for Cornet in this one and I do think Muguruza will have a little too much for her.
I would imagine Muguruza is going to have the majority of break point chances in this one and she can come through with a 63, 64 win for a place in the Final in Brisbane.
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 games v Elina Svitolina: On Thursday I had Elina Svitolina on my shortlist to use the games she was being given to keep things close against Angelique Kerber, but I ultimately felt she needed at least one more game to do that. I was wrong considering Svitolina managed to upset the World Number 1 in their Quarter Final and backing up that victory is going to be a challenge for her.
Mentally it was a big win, but Svitolina has beaten Kerber while the latter has been World Number 1 in Asia after the US Open last season and did win her next match so that aspect isn't a concern. However Svitolina is 0-4 against Karolina Pliskova in their head to head and I do think the Czech player is going to take another step forward in her career in 2017.
Reaching the Final at the US Open in 2016 would have given Pliskova another dose of belief and she has the big serve and heavy forehand which is going to take her deep into tournaments through this season. Mentally she will be stronger with that run too as well as helping the Czech Republic to win the Fed Cup and I do think she has the power to give Svitolina a lot to think about and work out in this one.
I do think Pliskova could be a little better off the backhand and has to learn to deal with players extending rallies, but this is a shoot out and I expect Svitolina to break down a little more. Her serve is not as good as Pliskova's and at big moments I think Svitolina could find herself struggling to cope with the pressure at those times whereas Pliskova can get out of trouble with a big serve.
The head to head gives Pliskova a little more of a mental edge and I think she will battle through to a 75, 64 win and set up a big Final.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 games v Dudi Sela: The run to the Quarter Final for Dudi Sela has come as a surprise when you consider he was an underdog in both of his first two matches in Chennai. Being an underdog in this Quarter Final won't bother Sela, but I do think Albert Ramos-Vinolas can get the better of him in this one.
It has been a good start to 2017 when you consider that Sela has generally spent his best moments on the Tour below the main ATP level and he only had 10 wins at this level through the whole of 2016. The hard courts are his favourite surface so Sela will have plenty of confidence to take into this match, especially in the manner he has won the last two matches.
The level does go up considerably when Sela takes on Ramos-Vinolas who is coming off a career year. The Spaniard might have his best results on the clay courts, but he has shown he can be effective on the hard courts when he has his lefty serve working well and I do think Ramos-Vinolas is going to be able to use the superior level he has been playing at to his advantage.
Ramos-Vinolas has had some solid results on the hard courts even if he did not have a great start to the 2016 season and I think this is a good chance to reach another Semi Final on the hard courts. Both players can have issues on the serve which the other has to look to expose, but I do think Ramos-Vinolas is the better player overall and he can show that over the course of three sets.
In his last eight wins on the hard courts, Ramos-Vinolas would have covered this number on six occasions and I do think he is the more likelier winner. Therefore I will look for him to cover the number in the win and move into the Semi Final.
Benoit Paire - 1.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: I will be the first person to tell you that backing Benoit Paire isn't an easy proposition because you don't know when he will suddenly decide that he will throw in terrible shot selections and give away games without much effort.
There were moments in his Second Round win when it looked like Paire was on the brink of throwing away his serve, but he knuckled down at big moments and has to look at this tournament as one he can win. After saving all seven break points he faced on Thursday, Paire is yet to be broken in this tournament and he has to have the confidence to produce his best tennis when he needs it most in this Quarter Final.
There is also a chance that Aljaz Bedene could be a little fatigued having spent a lot longer on court on Thursday than he may have anticipated. While his two wins this week have been impressive, I would argue the level of competition is raised by at least a level in this one and Bedene can't continue to throw in a poor service game or two per set if he is going to upset the Frenchman.
I do think there will be moments when Bedene looks the better player, but I also believe he will give Paire a few opportunities in this one and I like the latter to eventually wear him down and come through. Bedene won a tight match between these players last year at Queens but that was on the grass which is not a surface Paire has shown much appetite for in the past.
The hard courts should favour Paire more and I think he can get the better of Bedene with the narrow cover also achieved.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: The final pick of the day also comes from Chennai and I thought Roberto Bautista Agut might be at least a game bigger favourite to win this match against Mikhail Youzhny. I expect a margin of five games between these opponents over the course of this match so I will back the Spaniard to get the better of the veteran in this Quarter Final.
There is no doubt that Bautista Agut and Youzhny are at different points in their career even if the latter had a better season in 2016 than most would have expected. Youzhny's wins this week have come against players he would have been expected to beat and so there is a different pressure on the Russian when going up against Bautista Agut.
Youzhny can still play some very good tennis and he is a fighter which means he should give Bautista Agut some problems against a serve which is not amongst the best on the Tour. However the style that Bautista Agut employs will mean he is going to believe he can out-last Youzhny when it comes to the rallies on the court and there should be plenty of those for the Spaniard to get his teeth stuck into.
The serve has been well protected by Youzhny so far this week, but I think Bautista Agut is the best returner he has faced and I expect there to be break point chances for the latter. I do think think Youzhny will have some opportunities too in a good looking match, but I do think Bautista Agut eventually comes through 64, 63.
MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Coral (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 11-11, - 1.10 Units (44 Units Staked, - 2.5% Yield)
Thursday still had a big impact on the earlier losses this week but I am looking to turn this week around completely over the next couple of days when the tournaments come to a close. We then head to a couple of events next week in the lead up to the draw for the Australian Open which takes place next week just a few days before the first Grand Slam of the season begins.
One of the news stories that did pique my interest on Thursday was the news that last year's Junior Boy's Australian Open Champion has been charged with fixing a match. It is all alleged at the moment, but it would be a real eye opener for the authorities who have spent a year really burying their head in the sands about events that seemingly have been happening regularly for anyone who follows the right people on Twitter.
There are some people out there flagging up the 'dodgy' matches, but nothing has really been done about it in my opinion and now it will be interesting to see the follow up to this story regarding Oliver Anderson who is now going to be tarred with the brush of being a 'match fixer'. That will be the case even if this case is eventually thrown out and makes it a tough career for him going forward with every match scrutinised more than most.
Anderson was a player that people had some solid hopes for, but that looks a long way away at this moment.
On Friday we move onto the Quarter Finals in the cases of most of the tournaments being played this week, although we have also got to the Semi Final in a couple of the events. That means there are some big matches out on the courts as players look to throw down their markers for the 2017 Australian Open.
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Kyle Edmund: The way Stan Wawrinka recovered in his match against Victor Troicki and then took complete control of the match has to be a confidence boost for the Swiss player who will go into the Australian Open as the Number 4 Seed.
He has a chance to really lay down a marker for what he can achieve in Melbourne Park if he can go on to win the title in Brisbane. However Wawrinka has some big challenges to come even if I expect the first of those to be one that he can deal with relatively comfortably.
2017 could be a really big season for Kyle Edmund who is looking to take the next step in his career and was playing well before Lucas Pouille had to pull out of their Second Round match. Edmund will feel he can get a little closer to Wawrinka having played against him in Shanghai in a match that was closer than the final scoreline might have suggested.
He will need to have more success against the Wawrinka serve having struggled outside of one break of serve, especially as it may ease some of the pressure that Edmund will feel when trying to protect his own service games. I still think Edmund does play too many loose games on his own serve and someone like Wawrinka is good enough to take advantage of those lapses of concentration if he is not being taxed too much on his own serve.
I do think this match is still a little early for Edmund if Wawrinka can play to a similar level as he did in the win over Troicki. While Edmund can have more points won on the return, I still believe Wawrinka can come through with a 63, 64 win to match the score in Shanghai.
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Milos Raonic: These players met in a pre-season tournament at the Mubadala Tennis Championships and it was Rafael Nadal who came through against Milos Raonic in three sets. Things are going to be a little different when they play in this Quarter Final, but I am going to back Nadal to come through with a victory and a cover.
The spread is a difficult one when you think of the way Raonic can serve and him bringing his very best in that department will make it very difficult for Nadal. However the Spaniard has tended to find a way to get himself into the points and will then feel he can out-rally Raonic, although the latter has been an improving player over the last twelve months.
My issue with Raonic is that he needs to be very close to his ultimate level if he is going to win these kind of events and Grand Slam events and that brings its own pressure. While we have seen Raonic produce some top tennis, notably at the O2 Arena at the World Tour Finals in November, that level is yet to be found consistently.
I also like the way Nadal has been playing this week having won the Mubadala Tennic Championships which will have given him confidence. The serve can still be a little bit of a concern for him, but Nadal has looked after that aspect of his game well enough to think he can win this match. It will be a battle, but I like Nadal to win a tie-breaker and use the momentum to find a break of the Raonic serve which helps him cover this number and move into the Semi Final in Brisbane.
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 games v Alize Cornet: Anyone who saw the Alize Cornet win over Dominika Cibulkova in the Quarter Final in Brisbane on Thursday will perhaps have seen the Frenchwoman at her very best. She was serving effectively until the middle of the second set and put Cibulkova under pressure on the return with some very clever shot selection allowing her to keep the Slovakian off-balance.
It is going to be a different kind of test for Cornet when she faces Garbine Muguruza who is capable of producing some huge first serves which will be much more difficult to fight off than the Cibulkova serve. The one concern that remains with Muguruza is whether she is capable of backing up those serves without the errors that have blighted her game over the last six months.
An impressive win over Svetlana Kuznetsova in the Quarter Final might have given Muguruza a little more confidence in her ability to produce her best tennis when it matters. She will need to remain patient in this one against an opponent like Cornet who will look to redirect the pace back at the Spaniard and is also capable of making sure she gets more balls back in play than opponents expect.
Cornet has to show she has recovered from her tough Quarter Final which involved a lot of running around the court and both a physical and mental battle which she had to overcome. It can be difficult to do that without too much rest and I think that is a problem for Cornet in this one and I do think Muguruza will have a little too much for her.
I would imagine Muguruza is going to have the majority of break point chances in this one and she can come through with a 63, 64 win for a place in the Final in Brisbane.
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 games v Elina Svitolina: On Thursday I had Elina Svitolina on my shortlist to use the games she was being given to keep things close against Angelique Kerber, but I ultimately felt she needed at least one more game to do that. I was wrong considering Svitolina managed to upset the World Number 1 in their Quarter Final and backing up that victory is going to be a challenge for her.
Mentally it was a big win, but Svitolina has beaten Kerber while the latter has been World Number 1 in Asia after the US Open last season and did win her next match so that aspect isn't a concern. However Svitolina is 0-4 against Karolina Pliskova in their head to head and I do think the Czech player is going to take another step forward in her career in 2017.
Reaching the Final at the US Open in 2016 would have given Pliskova another dose of belief and she has the big serve and heavy forehand which is going to take her deep into tournaments through this season. Mentally she will be stronger with that run too as well as helping the Czech Republic to win the Fed Cup and I do think she has the power to give Svitolina a lot to think about and work out in this one.
I do think Pliskova could be a little better off the backhand and has to learn to deal with players extending rallies, but this is a shoot out and I expect Svitolina to break down a little more. Her serve is not as good as Pliskova's and at big moments I think Svitolina could find herself struggling to cope with the pressure at those times whereas Pliskova can get out of trouble with a big serve.
The head to head gives Pliskova a little more of a mental edge and I think she will battle through to a 75, 64 win and set up a big Final.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 games v Dudi Sela: The run to the Quarter Final for Dudi Sela has come as a surprise when you consider he was an underdog in both of his first two matches in Chennai. Being an underdog in this Quarter Final won't bother Sela, but I do think Albert Ramos-Vinolas can get the better of him in this one.
It has been a good start to 2017 when you consider that Sela has generally spent his best moments on the Tour below the main ATP level and he only had 10 wins at this level through the whole of 2016. The hard courts are his favourite surface so Sela will have plenty of confidence to take into this match, especially in the manner he has won the last two matches.
The level does go up considerably when Sela takes on Ramos-Vinolas who is coming off a career year. The Spaniard might have his best results on the clay courts, but he has shown he can be effective on the hard courts when he has his lefty serve working well and I do think Ramos-Vinolas is going to be able to use the superior level he has been playing at to his advantage.
Ramos-Vinolas has had some solid results on the hard courts even if he did not have a great start to the 2016 season and I think this is a good chance to reach another Semi Final on the hard courts. Both players can have issues on the serve which the other has to look to expose, but I do think Ramos-Vinolas is the better player overall and he can show that over the course of three sets.
In his last eight wins on the hard courts, Ramos-Vinolas would have covered this number on six occasions and I do think he is the more likelier winner. Therefore I will look for him to cover the number in the win and move into the Semi Final.
Benoit Paire - 1.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: I will be the first person to tell you that backing Benoit Paire isn't an easy proposition because you don't know when he will suddenly decide that he will throw in terrible shot selections and give away games without much effort.
There were moments in his Second Round win when it looked like Paire was on the brink of throwing away his serve, but he knuckled down at big moments and has to look at this tournament as one he can win. After saving all seven break points he faced on Thursday, Paire is yet to be broken in this tournament and he has to have the confidence to produce his best tennis when he needs it most in this Quarter Final.
There is also a chance that Aljaz Bedene could be a little fatigued having spent a lot longer on court on Thursday than he may have anticipated. While his two wins this week have been impressive, I would argue the level of competition is raised by at least a level in this one and Bedene can't continue to throw in a poor service game or two per set if he is going to upset the Frenchman.
I do think there will be moments when Bedene looks the better player, but I also believe he will give Paire a few opportunities in this one and I like the latter to eventually wear him down and come through. Bedene won a tight match between these players last year at Queens but that was on the grass which is not a surface Paire has shown much appetite for in the past.
The hard courts should favour Paire more and I think he can get the better of Bedene with the narrow cover also achieved.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: The final pick of the day also comes from Chennai and I thought Roberto Bautista Agut might be at least a game bigger favourite to win this match against Mikhail Youzhny. I expect a margin of five games between these opponents over the course of this match so I will back the Spaniard to get the better of the veteran in this Quarter Final.
There is no doubt that Bautista Agut and Youzhny are at different points in their career even if the latter had a better season in 2016 than most would have expected. Youzhny's wins this week have come against players he would have been expected to beat and so there is a different pressure on the Russian when going up against Bautista Agut.
Youzhny can still play some very good tennis and he is a fighter which means he should give Bautista Agut some problems against a serve which is not amongst the best on the Tour. However the style that Bautista Agut employs will mean he is going to believe he can out-last Youzhny when it comes to the rallies on the court and there should be plenty of those for the Spaniard to get his teeth stuck into.
The serve has been well protected by Youzhny so far this week, but I think Bautista Agut is the best returner he has faced and I expect there to be break point chances for the latter. I do think think Youzhny will have some opportunities too in a good looking match, but I do think Bautista Agut eventually comes through 64, 63.
MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Coral (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 11-11, - 1.10 Units (44 Units Staked, - 2.5% Yield)
Wednesday, 4 January 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (January 4th)
The tennis tournaments in Auckland, Brisbane, Chennai, Doha and Shenzhen continue in the opening week of the 2017 season and the Hopman Cup is also in action. These tournaments will feature the biggest names on the ATP and WTA Tour this week before most will decide to have a rest next week ahead of the Australian Open beginning on Monday 16th January.
The Second Round matches will be either completed or begun on Wednesday as we reach the middle of the first week of the 2017 season and I will have picks from the various events being played.
Angelique Kerber - 5.5 games v Ashleigh Barty: The Ashleigh Barty story is a very interesting one with the player leaving what looked a promising tennis career to become a cricket player. She returned to the WTA Tour after a two year break and is still only 20 years old with a chance to make an impact on the Tour.
It does have to be mentioned that the majority of her early successes came on the Doubles Tour and Barty might actually be a better team player than a Singles one. That is not disparaging the young Australian, but I do worry about her ability to cover the court on the Singles Tour especially when up against the very best players on the Tour.
Barty will be playing the very best player in the Second Round in Brisbane as Angelique Kerber makes her first appearance of the 2017 season. 2016 will always be a memorable one for the German who will be entering the Australian Open as the World Number 1 in a Grand Slam event for the first time, as well as trying to defend the title she won twelve months ago.
The movement Kerber produces around the court has proved to be a real difference maker and I think she is going to put Barty into some tough positions while also making the youngster hit one more ball than she perhaps expects to when it comes to winning points. That is going to lead to errors and Kerber also has the quality to turn defence into attack very quickly which has helped her reach the top of the women's game.
I think that is going to be a key in this match and help Kerber come through with a fairly comfortable win after weathering the Barty storm. There will be some strong moments for Barty, but I believe Kerber will be able to wear her down and come through with a 64, 62 win and a place in to the Quarter Finals.
Kristyna Pliskova v Kai-Chen Chang: Seeing twin sister Karolina Pliskova take another step in a positive direction at the end of the 2016 season has to inspire Kristyna Pliskova in a bid to improve her Number 60 position in the World Rankings. She has a serve to rival Karolina's and it is coming from a lefty which makes Kristyna very dangerous, but she has yet to find the consistency on the ground to really make big leaps up the World Rankings.
This is going to be anything but an easy match against Kai-Chen Chang who had some strong results to finish up the 2016 season. That looks to have given Chang some confidence having already won three matches in Shenzhen and it makes her a big test for Pliskova.
These players met a few months ago and it was a tight match won by Pliskova. This looks like another that potentially goes the distance and it has to be said that the Pliskova first serve could be the difference maker in the match as it will allow her to earn a couple of cheaper points.
That eases the pressure at big moments and I think it could help Pliskova to narrowly find a way past Chang in this one. The latter will have to work hard for all she gets on the court and I believe that ultimately sees her come up short and I will back Pliskova in this pick 'em contest.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Jordan Thompson: A couple of seasons ago David Ferrer would be a big favourite to win a match like this, but the last few months have seen a regression from the Spaniard. There is clearly some fire left in the belly of the veteran after making a coaching change to perhaps reverse the natural arc of a career, and Ferrer did have an impressive First Round win over Bernard Tomic here in Brisbane.
Ferrer faces another Australian in the Second Round when meeting Jordan Thompson who put together some solid results at the back end of 2016 albeit at a lower level than the ATP Tour.
He had a solid First Round win and Thompson has some good shots in his locker which can give Ferrer trouble. The serve is important for Thompson to try and keep Ferrer on the back foot in this one but he has to make sure a high enough percentage of first serves in play to stop Ferrer from being able to step forward and attack him immediately.
The regression in the Ferrer play has to be a concern for the Spaniard and his fans going into the season, but I think he is still good enough to win matches like this. He served very well in his first match and I think Ferrer is capable of forcing Thompson to dig deep and try and win the longer rallies even if the unforced errors come a little more frequently from Ferrer these days.
Extracting errors from Thompson and making the Australian look to hit winners quicker than he may want to should lead to Ferrer being able to match the margin of victory that he had against Tomic in the First Round. I will back the veteran to come through with a cover in this Second Round match.
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Victor Troicki: The first match after a long lay off is always a challenge for the players beginning their return to the Tour and Stan Wawrinka could have hoped for an easier Second Round match. He does have a very strong record against Victor Troicki which will give Wawrinka the mental edge in this match, but he will have to produce something like his best tennis to win.
His opponent has a win under his belt from the First Round, and Troicki also won the title in Sydney at this time of the season in 2016. That was one of the successful tournaments that helped the Serbian move inside the top 30 in the World Rankings and Troicki will be Seeded at the Australian Open.
Troicki serves well and it does have to be said that Wawrinka can be a little passive when it comes to the return which will give Troicki a chance to dictate rallies. However Troicki never seems that far away from a mental collapse when playing some of the better players on the Tour and that has been the case when he has played Wawrinka.
Those problems against the top 10 players is shown up in Troicki's 9-60 career record against them, and he would have been 2-4 covering this number of games in a best of three set match against top 10 opponents in 2016. Stan Wawrinka was one of those players who wore down Troicki and I expect him to do the same in his opening match in Brisbane and come through with a 76, 63 win.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: The head to head sees Nicolas Almagro leading Philipp Kohlschreiber 6-4 and it was the Spaniard who won the sole match between these veterans in 2016. That did take place on the clay courts at the French Open and that surface would be giving Almagro the edge.
I am not sure that is the case on the hard courts though and I think Kohlschreiber will have the advantage on a surface on which Almagro has really struggled over the last twelve months.
Even his win over Paolo Lorenzi saw Almagro come through some difficult moments and I think he just finds it a little tougher to find his rhythm on the faster surfaces. Almagro is just 9-11 on the hard courts since the 2014 season and that has to be a concern considering he should have the serve and the forehand to have success on the surface.
Kohlschreiber is definitely on the slide in his own career too, and he didn't exactly produce a strong set of results on the hard courts himself in the 2016 season. He doesn't match up that well with Almagro on the face of things, but half of his four wins over Almagro have come on the hard courts.
I just feel the German has still got a little more in the tank on this surface than Almagro and I expect that to make a difference between two well matched opponents. Kohlschreiber has to make sure he doesn't allow Almagro to dictate too many of the rallies by offering up too many second serves, but I think he can do that and I believe he can win this match in a 63, 46, 64 win.
Jiri Vesely + 3.5 games v Tomas Berdych: The first time I am taking the games in the 2017 season comes from a Second Round match in Doha when I will back Jiri Vesely to keep things competitive against Tomas Berdych. It does have to be said that Vesely has yet to come close to fulfilling the potential he has, but he has pushed Berdych in their last two matches and can give his compatriot something to think about in this one.
Vesely is a big man and a lefty, but he needs to get more out of the first serve in 2017 if he wants to show real improvement on the court. The younger player should be well rested having had his First Round match a couple of days ago, and I do think he can expose some of the movement in the Berdych game by serving big and following it up with some big groundstrokes.
The length also means Vesely can get a few more balls back in play on the return of serve which has given Berdych problems in their two matches in 2016. Both went the distance at Wimbledon and Shenzhen and Vesely can certainly push him into a deciding set in this one.
A key to the number is Vesely serving well and making sure he takes the chances when they are presented on the return of serve. There is little doubt in my mind that Berdych remains the superior player at this moment of time and also has the mental edge having won all three previous matches against his compatriot. However I think this is a decent match up for Vesely if he is limiting his unforced errors and I will take the games and look for a close match.
MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Kristyna Pliskova @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units) Match from Tuesday
Weekly Update: 4-3, + 1.34 Units (14 Units Staked, + 9.57% Yield)
The Second Round matches will be either completed or begun on Wednesday as we reach the middle of the first week of the 2017 season and I will have picks from the various events being played.
Angelique Kerber - 5.5 games v Ashleigh Barty: The Ashleigh Barty story is a very interesting one with the player leaving what looked a promising tennis career to become a cricket player. She returned to the WTA Tour after a two year break and is still only 20 years old with a chance to make an impact on the Tour.
It does have to be mentioned that the majority of her early successes came on the Doubles Tour and Barty might actually be a better team player than a Singles one. That is not disparaging the young Australian, but I do worry about her ability to cover the court on the Singles Tour especially when up against the very best players on the Tour.
Barty will be playing the very best player in the Second Round in Brisbane as Angelique Kerber makes her first appearance of the 2017 season. 2016 will always be a memorable one for the German who will be entering the Australian Open as the World Number 1 in a Grand Slam event for the first time, as well as trying to defend the title she won twelve months ago.
The movement Kerber produces around the court has proved to be a real difference maker and I think she is going to put Barty into some tough positions while also making the youngster hit one more ball than she perhaps expects to when it comes to winning points. That is going to lead to errors and Kerber also has the quality to turn defence into attack very quickly which has helped her reach the top of the women's game.
I think that is going to be a key in this match and help Kerber come through with a fairly comfortable win after weathering the Barty storm. There will be some strong moments for Barty, but I believe Kerber will be able to wear her down and come through with a 64, 62 win and a place in to the Quarter Finals.
Kristyna Pliskova v Kai-Chen Chang: Seeing twin sister Karolina Pliskova take another step in a positive direction at the end of the 2016 season has to inspire Kristyna Pliskova in a bid to improve her Number 60 position in the World Rankings. She has a serve to rival Karolina's and it is coming from a lefty which makes Kristyna very dangerous, but she has yet to find the consistency on the ground to really make big leaps up the World Rankings.
This is going to be anything but an easy match against Kai-Chen Chang who had some strong results to finish up the 2016 season. That looks to have given Chang some confidence having already won three matches in Shenzhen and it makes her a big test for Pliskova.
These players met a few months ago and it was a tight match won by Pliskova. This looks like another that potentially goes the distance and it has to be said that the Pliskova first serve could be the difference maker in the match as it will allow her to earn a couple of cheaper points.
That eases the pressure at big moments and I think it could help Pliskova to narrowly find a way past Chang in this one. The latter will have to work hard for all she gets on the court and I believe that ultimately sees her come up short and I will back Pliskova in this pick 'em contest.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Jordan Thompson: A couple of seasons ago David Ferrer would be a big favourite to win a match like this, but the last few months have seen a regression from the Spaniard. There is clearly some fire left in the belly of the veteran after making a coaching change to perhaps reverse the natural arc of a career, and Ferrer did have an impressive First Round win over Bernard Tomic here in Brisbane.
Ferrer faces another Australian in the Second Round when meeting Jordan Thompson who put together some solid results at the back end of 2016 albeit at a lower level than the ATP Tour.
He had a solid First Round win and Thompson has some good shots in his locker which can give Ferrer trouble. The serve is important for Thompson to try and keep Ferrer on the back foot in this one but he has to make sure a high enough percentage of first serves in play to stop Ferrer from being able to step forward and attack him immediately.
The regression in the Ferrer play has to be a concern for the Spaniard and his fans going into the season, but I think he is still good enough to win matches like this. He served very well in his first match and I think Ferrer is capable of forcing Thompson to dig deep and try and win the longer rallies even if the unforced errors come a little more frequently from Ferrer these days.
Extracting errors from Thompson and making the Australian look to hit winners quicker than he may want to should lead to Ferrer being able to match the margin of victory that he had against Tomic in the First Round. I will back the veteran to come through with a cover in this Second Round match.
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Victor Troicki: The first match after a long lay off is always a challenge for the players beginning their return to the Tour and Stan Wawrinka could have hoped for an easier Second Round match. He does have a very strong record against Victor Troicki which will give Wawrinka the mental edge in this match, but he will have to produce something like his best tennis to win.
His opponent has a win under his belt from the First Round, and Troicki also won the title in Sydney at this time of the season in 2016. That was one of the successful tournaments that helped the Serbian move inside the top 30 in the World Rankings and Troicki will be Seeded at the Australian Open.
Troicki serves well and it does have to be said that Wawrinka can be a little passive when it comes to the return which will give Troicki a chance to dictate rallies. However Troicki never seems that far away from a mental collapse when playing some of the better players on the Tour and that has been the case when he has played Wawrinka.
Those problems against the top 10 players is shown up in Troicki's 9-60 career record against them, and he would have been 2-4 covering this number of games in a best of three set match against top 10 opponents in 2016. Stan Wawrinka was one of those players who wore down Troicki and I expect him to do the same in his opening match in Brisbane and come through with a 76, 63 win.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: The head to head sees Nicolas Almagro leading Philipp Kohlschreiber 6-4 and it was the Spaniard who won the sole match between these veterans in 2016. That did take place on the clay courts at the French Open and that surface would be giving Almagro the edge.
I am not sure that is the case on the hard courts though and I think Kohlschreiber will have the advantage on a surface on which Almagro has really struggled over the last twelve months.
Even his win over Paolo Lorenzi saw Almagro come through some difficult moments and I think he just finds it a little tougher to find his rhythm on the faster surfaces. Almagro is just 9-11 on the hard courts since the 2014 season and that has to be a concern considering he should have the serve and the forehand to have success on the surface.
Kohlschreiber is definitely on the slide in his own career too, and he didn't exactly produce a strong set of results on the hard courts himself in the 2016 season. He doesn't match up that well with Almagro on the face of things, but half of his four wins over Almagro have come on the hard courts.
I just feel the German has still got a little more in the tank on this surface than Almagro and I expect that to make a difference between two well matched opponents. Kohlschreiber has to make sure he doesn't allow Almagro to dictate too many of the rallies by offering up too many second serves, but I think he can do that and I believe he can win this match in a 63, 46, 64 win.
Jiri Vesely + 3.5 games v Tomas Berdych: The first time I am taking the games in the 2017 season comes from a Second Round match in Doha when I will back Jiri Vesely to keep things competitive against Tomas Berdych. It does have to be said that Vesely has yet to come close to fulfilling the potential he has, but he has pushed Berdych in their last two matches and can give his compatriot something to think about in this one.
Vesely is a big man and a lefty, but he needs to get more out of the first serve in 2017 if he wants to show real improvement on the court. The younger player should be well rested having had his First Round match a couple of days ago, and I do think he can expose some of the movement in the Berdych game by serving big and following it up with some big groundstrokes.
The length also means Vesely can get a few more balls back in play on the return of serve which has given Berdych problems in their two matches in 2016. Both went the distance at Wimbledon and Shenzhen and Vesely can certainly push him into a deciding set in this one.
A key to the number is Vesely serving well and making sure he takes the chances when they are presented on the return of serve. There is little doubt in my mind that Berdych remains the superior player at this moment of time and also has the mental edge having won all three previous matches against his compatriot. However I think this is a decent match up for Vesely if he is limiting his unforced errors and I will take the games and look for a close match.
MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Kristyna Pliskova @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units) Match from Tuesday
Weekly Update: 4-3, + 1.34 Units (14 Units Staked, + 9.57% Yield)
Monday, 2 January 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (January 2nd)
And just like that the 2017 tennis season is upon us with plenty of big stories ready to be written over the next eleven months. There is no doubting it is an incredibly short off-season for the players, although the big names do manage their schedules well enough to earn rest through the year to be ready for the big Grand Slam events.
There are questions on both the ATP and WTA Tours at the very top with players like Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Serena Williams going into the new season with things to prove. It will be interesting to see which of the younger players can consistently produce their best tennis to move amongst the best players in the world, while Andy Murray and Angelique Kerber look to fight off their challengers for the Number 1 World Ranking.
Both of those players head to the first Grand Slam of the season at the Australian Open as the top Seeds for the first time in their careers and it will be interesting to see how they handle that responsibility and media attention. I don't particularly worry for either Murray or Kerber to be honest and I think they will be arguably the favourites in each of the Grand Slam events even if the prices don't always represent that.
The one real big piece of news that springs to mind about the off-season is a the totally disgusting event that Petra Kvitova had to go through- someone intended to rob her house without realising it was Kvitova's place or that she was the one answering the door and in the struggle damaged her left hand.
It means 2017 might be a write off for Kvitova on the Tour, but more worrying is that she may not ever be able to play tennis again which is absolutely a crazy turn of events. I wish her all the best and hope Kvitova not only gets back onto the Tour, but reaches the levels she has prior.
2016 began miserably for the picks in what had been a terrible twelve months which heavily influenced the negative numbers for the last two seasons. However the last five months of the season were positive enough to believe I can take that momentum into the 2017 season and have a much more positive beginning to the season. I missed much of the clay court season last year due to that being the time of the year I was getting ready for my wedding, but hopefully this will help turn around the numbers and get back into the winning runs as I had prior to 2015.
Roberta Vinci v Lesia Tsurenko: Players are much better conditioned these days to play longer than their tennis predecessors did in the past, but Roberta Vinci is now six weeks out from her 34th birthday and I do wonder how much is left in the Italian's tank. However the last few seasons have arguably been the best of her Singles career and Vinci continues to put up the wins in 2016 and looks like a tough competitor at least early in 2017.
The hard courts are actually where Vinci produces her better results which is a surprise because on first glance you would assume an Italian player would prefer the clay courts. However Vinci has had some strong runs on this surface and reached the Quarter Final in Brisbane last season.
I do think she can get the better of Lesia Tsurenko who has been a little more than a journeywoman on the Tour. Tsurenko had a couple of solid, if unspectacular, seasons behind her, but Vinci got the better of this opponent twice in 2016 and both of those wins came on the hard courts.
The form in the latter stages of the 2016 season does make Tsurenko a dangerous First Round opponent for Vinci especially off the long rest and what that can do to the rhythm. Even with that in mind though, I am surprised Vinci is seen at such a big price to win this match and I think she can frustrate Tsurenko while using an under-rated first serve to move through to the Second Round in Brisbane again.
Simona Halep - 4.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: 2016 looked to be a season with significant regression for Jelena Jankovic as a Singles player, but some positive results in the latter half of the season at least put a decent gloss on things. It doesn't hide from the fact that she won the fewest matches on Tour since 2003 and I think Jankovic will do well to turn things around and not follow compatriot Ana Ivanovic into retirement at the end of the 2017 season.
This is an early test for Jankovic to see where she is with her game as she gets set to face Simona Halep in the First Round in Shenzhen. This is not exactly the kind of opening match Halep would have wanted as she finally looks to break her duck at the Grand Slam level and win a title that will move her up from her current level.
Halep is a very good player, but she can be a little erratic protecting serve which makes her vulnerable against some of the best players on the Tour. However I think her movement is now quite clearly much stronger than Jankovic's and that can expose the difference between the players on the court.
These two haven't played one another since Cincinnati in 2015 around eighteen months ago, but Halep had begun to not only get the better of Jankovic, but she had also won the last two matches quite comfortably. I think it might take a little time for Halep to find her rhythm in this opening match, but I do believe her superior movement will offer up more chances to break serve and Halep can win this one 75, 63 to cover the number.
Kyle Edmund - 3.5 games v Ernesto Escobedo: Seeing Andy Murray knighted having achieved all of his goals on the tennis court has to inspire the next generation of British players and it is Kyle Edmund who is leading the way. This is going to be a big season for Edmund to show he can take the next step in his development and I think he can open the season with a win over Qualifier Ernesto Escobedo.
The young American had a couple of impressive wins in the Qualifiers against a couple of veterans of the Tour, but he was beaten by Edmund at the US Open and there looked to be some gap between them. While Escobedo has gone back to the Challenger level for his best results since the US Open, Edmund reached the Fourth Round at Flushing Meadows which led into a solid ending to the 2016 season.
He has worked with Murray in the off season in the past so I fully expect Edmund will have put in the hard graft over the last few weeks to get ready for the 2017 season. He has the superior serve and the harder groundstrokes in this First Round match and I do think he can put that together to good effect against Escobedo.
The fact that Escobedo has a couple of Qualifiers under his belt should mean he can settle quicker than Edmund, but I do think the latter will find his range. At that point he should have the majority of the break point opportunities and also dictate the rallies and I expect Edmund to pull through with a 75, 64 win.
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Steve Johnson: Over the last twelve months you would have to say that Steve Johnson overachieved considerably and Grigor Dimitrov underachieved as he struggled with his form. However a smaller sample of the last six months suggests the players are now going in opposite directions with Dimitrov showing signs of improvement and Johnson perhaps regressing.
Matches between these players have been close as Dimitrov has had some difficulties getting a read on the Johnson serve and has simply not protected his own service games as well as he should have. They have met five times in a little over eighteen months and all of those matches have been competitive with Dimitrov only just having the edge 3-2.
I think the form to end 2016 should have given Dimitrov some confidence that he can have a big 2017 season and I think he has previously played well at this stage of the season in Australia. He will be put under pressure if Johnson is serving well, but I do think the American has struggled to back up the first serve as well as he did in the early part of 2016.
Johnson had been very good at the big moments early in the season which saw him move up the World Rankings, but I think that was always going to be difficult to maintain. The latter half of the season saw Johnson just struggle at those break point moments and I think Dimitrov will get the better of him here with a 76, 63 win.
Nicolas Almagro v Paolo Lorenzi: There are only four places between Paolo Lorenzi and Nicolas Almagro in the World Rankings and both players are much better on the clay courts than the other surfaces on the Tour. In previous years Almagro wasn't a bad hard court player, but he struggled on the surface last season although I think the Spaniard can get the better of Lorenzi in this First Round encounter in Doha.
Like Almagro, Lorenzi didn't have a very good season when moving onto the hard courts in 2016, but the difference between the players is that Lorenzi has never really shown too much on that surface. His serve is not the biggest meaning he has to work for every point and Lorenzi also doesn't have the groundstrokes to always penetrate defences.
I think he will have more success in this one because of Almagro's movement being a little slower around the court, while some of the consistency on the Spaniard's side of the court is no longer at the level it was. However Lorenzi will have to find a way to stay with Almagro when the latter unleashes his bigger forehand and solid enough first serve and I think that is where Almagro is able to dominate a little more.
Anything but a tight match would be a surprise, but I do think Almagro is perhaps a little under-rated considering the opponent. He has beaten Lorenzi all four times they have met previously, but each of those has been on the clay courts. There is no doubt Almagro is not the player he was, but I consider him the better hard court player and I expect him to move through to the Second Round.
MY PICKS: Roberta Vinci @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
There are questions on both the ATP and WTA Tours at the very top with players like Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Serena Williams going into the new season with things to prove. It will be interesting to see which of the younger players can consistently produce their best tennis to move amongst the best players in the world, while Andy Murray and Angelique Kerber look to fight off their challengers for the Number 1 World Ranking.
Both of those players head to the first Grand Slam of the season at the Australian Open as the top Seeds for the first time in their careers and it will be interesting to see how they handle that responsibility and media attention. I don't particularly worry for either Murray or Kerber to be honest and I think they will be arguably the favourites in each of the Grand Slam events even if the prices don't always represent that.
The one real big piece of news that springs to mind about the off-season is a the totally disgusting event that Petra Kvitova had to go through- someone intended to rob her house without realising it was Kvitova's place or that she was the one answering the door and in the struggle damaged her left hand.
It means 2017 might be a write off for Kvitova on the Tour, but more worrying is that she may not ever be able to play tennis again which is absolutely a crazy turn of events. I wish her all the best and hope Kvitova not only gets back onto the Tour, but reaches the levels she has prior.
2016 began miserably for the picks in what had been a terrible twelve months which heavily influenced the negative numbers for the last two seasons. However the last five months of the season were positive enough to believe I can take that momentum into the 2017 season and have a much more positive beginning to the season. I missed much of the clay court season last year due to that being the time of the year I was getting ready for my wedding, but hopefully this will help turn around the numbers and get back into the winning runs as I had prior to 2015.
Roberta Vinci v Lesia Tsurenko: Players are much better conditioned these days to play longer than their tennis predecessors did in the past, but Roberta Vinci is now six weeks out from her 34th birthday and I do wonder how much is left in the Italian's tank. However the last few seasons have arguably been the best of her Singles career and Vinci continues to put up the wins in 2016 and looks like a tough competitor at least early in 2017.
The hard courts are actually where Vinci produces her better results which is a surprise because on first glance you would assume an Italian player would prefer the clay courts. However Vinci has had some strong runs on this surface and reached the Quarter Final in Brisbane last season.
I do think she can get the better of Lesia Tsurenko who has been a little more than a journeywoman on the Tour. Tsurenko had a couple of solid, if unspectacular, seasons behind her, but Vinci got the better of this opponent twice in 2016 and both of those wins came on the hard courts.
The form in the latter stages of the 2016 season does make Tsurenko a dangerous First Round opponent for Vinci especially off the long rest and what that can do to the rhythm. Even with that in mind though, I am surprised Vinci is seen at such a big price to win this match and I think she can frustrate Tsurenko while using an under-rated first serve to move through to the Second Round in Brisbane again.
Simona Halep - 4.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: 2016 looked to be a season with significant regression for Jelena Jankovic as a Singles player, but some positive results in the latter half of the season at least put a decent gloss on things. It doesn't hide from the fact that she won the fewest matches on Tour since 2003 and I think Jankovic will do well to turn things around and not follow compatriot Ana Ivanovic into retirement at the end of the 2017 season.
This is an early test for Jankovic to see where she is with her game as she gets set to face Simona Halep in the First Round in Shenzhen. This is not exactly the kind of opening match Halep would have wanted as she finally looks to break her duck at the Grand Slam level and win a title that will move her up from her current level.
Halep is a very good player, but she can be a little erratic protecting serve which makes her vulnerable against some of the best players on the Tour. However I think her movement is now quite clearly much stronger than Jankovic's and that can expose the difference between the players on the court.
These two haven't played one another since Cincinnati in 2015 around eighteen months ago, but Halep had begun to not only get the better of Jankovic, but she had also won the last two matches quite comfortably. I think it might take a little time for Halep to find her rhythm in this opening match, but I do believe her superior movement will offer up more chances to break serve and Halep can win this one 75, 63 to cover the number.
Kyle Edmund - 3.5 games v Ernesto Escobedo: Seeing Andy Murray knighted having achieved all of his goals on the tennis court has to inspire the next generation of British players and it is Kyle Edmund who is leading the way. This is going to be a big season for Edmund to show he can take the next step in his development and I think he can open the season with a win over Qualifier Ernesto Escobedo.
The young American had a couple of impressive wins in the Qualifiers against a couple of veterans of the Tour, but he was beaten by Edmund at the US Open and there looked to be some gap between them. While Escobedo has gone back to the Challenger level for his best results since the US Open, Edmund reached the Fourth Round at Flushing Meadows which led into a solid ending to the 2016 season.
He has worked with Murray in the off season in the past so I fully expect Edmund will have put in the hard graft over the last few weeks to get ready for the 2017 season. He has the superior serve and the harder groundstrokes in this First Round match and I do think he can put that together to good effect against Escobedo.
The fact that Escobedo has a couple of Qualifiers under his belt should mean he can settle quicker than Edmund, but I do think the latter will find his range. At that point he should have the majority of the break point opportunities and also dictate the rallies and I expect Edmund to pull through with a 75, 64 win.
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Steve Johnson: Over the last twelve months you would have to say that Steve Johnson overachieved considerably and Grigor Dimitrov underachieved as he struggled with his form. However a smaller sample of the last six months suggests the players are now going in opposite directions with Dimitrov showing signs of improvement and Johnson perhaps regressing.
Matches between these players have been close as Dimitrov has had some difficulties getting a read on the Johnson serve and has simply not protected his own service games as well as he should have. They have met five times in a little over eighteen months and all of those matches have been competitive with Dimitrov only just having the edge 3-2.
I think the form to end 2016 should have given Dimitrov some confidence that he can have a big 2017 season and I think he has previously played well at this stage of the season in Australia. He will be put under pressure if Johnson is serving well, but I do think the American has struggled to back up the first serve as well as he did in the early part of 2016.
Johnson had been very good at the big moments early in the season which saw him move up the World Rankings, but I think that was always going to be difficult to maintain. The latter half of the season saw Johnson just struggle at those break point moments and I think Dimitrov will get the better of him here with a 76, 63 win.
Nicolas Almagro v Paolo Lorenzi: There are only four places between Paolo Lorenzi and Nicolas Almagro in the World Rankings and both players are much better on the clay courts than the other surfaces on the Tour. In previous years Almagro wasn't a bad hard court player, but he struggled on the surface last season although I think the Spaniard can get the better of Lorenzi in this First Round encounter in Doha.
Like Almagro, Lorenzi didn't have a very good season when moving onto the hard courts in 2016, but the difference between the players is that Lorenzi has never really shown too much on that surface. His serve is not the biggest meaning he has to work for every point and Lorenzi also doesn't have the groundstrokes to always penetrate defences.
I think he will have more success in this one because of Almagro's movement being a little slower around the court, while some of the consistency on the Spaniard's side of the court is no longer at the level it was. However Lorenzi will have to find a way to stay with Almagro when the latter unleashes his bigger forehand and solid enough first serve and I think that is where Almagro is able to dominate a little more.
Anything but a tight match would be a surprise, but I do think Almagro is perhaps a little under-rated considering the opponent. He has beaten Lorenzi all four times they have met previously, but each of those has been on the clay courts. There is no doubt Almagro is not the player he was, but I consider him the better hard court player and I expect him to move through to the Second Round.
MY PICKS: Roberta Vinci @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Thursday, 7 January 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (January 7th)
The tennis matches from Auckland to Doha are played over so many time zones this week that everyone will get an opportunity to catch some live tennis if they so wish to see it.
With the preparation for the Australian Open continuing at pace, a lot of people will be interested to see where the big names stand at this moment with little tennis played since November before the tournament at Melbourne Park begins.
Any doubts about the Men's favourite have been erased by the way Novak Djokovic has been playing so far in Doha and his previous successes at the Australian Open looks to make him a very strong favourite to win that title. That could change in the final few days in Doha, but looks unlikely at this point, although the draw is still going to be interesting in ten days time to see how it will break down for the World Number 1.
The picks went 2-1 yesterday after Djokovic crushed Fernando Verdasco far easier than I imagined he would. Fortunately both Rafael Nadal and Tomas Berdych were comfortable winners after that to even up the week in terms of winners and losers.
Hopefully that will be pushed on in the final few days and get the season off to a positive beginning.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Anastasia Pavlychenkova: There were a lot of high expectations for the career that Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova was going to have and I think this is a big year for her. There have been some very good matches produced by the Russian which has shown off her talent, but movement has been an issue and consistency has also been a struggle for Pavlyuchenkova.
If she wants to have the career that people expected for her, Pavlyuchenkova has to kick on in 2016 and try to find that consistency that has been lacking. She has had two impressive wins this week, but facing Angelique Kerber is an altogether different challenge for Pavlyuchenkova as the German has the movement and defensive abilities to extract the mistakes that can be a big hindrance to Pavlychenkova.
Kerber is not just a fine defender, but she has the shot making to quickly turn a rally back into her favour and she has been in pretty strong form this week. Since losing the first set to Camila Giorgi, Kerber has won four straight sets for the loss of just six games in total and she has dominated in recent matches against Pavlyuchenkova having won four of five matches including both last season.
I do think Pavlyuchenkova will have her chances to break serve, but Kerber will also have her own opportunities and I like the latter to come through this one. After a tight battle, I think Kerber wins this one 75, 64 to move into the Semi Final.
Naomi Broady + 4.5 games v Sloane Stephens: For all the controversy of Naomi Broady's win in the Second Round, it might have been a little lost that the British player is making some real waves in Auckland this week. Beating Ana Ivanovic in the First Round following a run through the Qualifiers was impressive, but Broady will have to dig deep to see off Sloane Stephens in this Quarter Final.
I think it will be very difficult for Broady to win this match, especially if the drama of yesterday has taken a toll mentally. It was also a long match against Jelena Ostapenko which coupled with the long week already might mean Broady doesn't have a lot left in tank.
Broady is going up against a talented opponent in Stephens who will be looking for a bounce back year having struggled through much of 2015. The second half of the season was much better for the American and she is a player that I can see moving back up the World Rankings very quickly.
However, it has to be said that Stephens can be very inconsistent and that is where Broady might be able to take advantage and keep this very competitive. She has the power and the mental strength to win a set in this one with confidence high from a strong run in Auckland and I think this looks a lot of games for Stephens to cover.
Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 games v Illya Marchenko: It has already been a strong week for Illya Marchenko who has won two matches in Doha while being the underdog in both. Coming back from a set down to beat David Ferrer is never easy, but he might have caught the defending Champion a little cold and that won't be the case at this stage of the week.
He faces Jeremy Chardy who has been a comfortable winner in both of the matches he has played this week and who has to be extremely confident. The Frenchman looks to be Seeded at the Australian Open and he is a player that can be very effective on the court, although the serve can sometimes become a weakness.
The first serve is very good, but Chardy's second serve can be a weakness at time although Marchenko is going to face the same kind of problem. The player who can dominate on the second serve return is going to be the one to move into the Semi Final this week, but I do think Chardy is the more effective player and likely to be in that position.
Both players have only been broken once this week but Chardy is the better player and I think he will come through 76, 64 after a challenging match.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Kyle Edmund: I am 1-1 picking Tomas Berdych matches this week but he came through for me yesterday, even if he didn't produce the best second set that he would have liked. I do think Berdych should be too good for the young Brit Kyle Edmund even if the latter has put together a strong week which should move him into the top 100 of the World Rankings.
After three pretty comfortable wins, Edmund had to dig very deep to win his Second Round match on Wednesday and I do wonder if that has taken something from him physically. Edmund has also not played anyone of the level of Tomas Berdych and I think bridging that gap will be difficult in this Quarter Final.
Edmund is a talented player that can't be underestimated and he showed that he could potentially be making a real move in the World Rankings with his solid appearance in the Davis Cup Final in November. He pushed David Goffin to five sets having taken the first two sets in that Rubber and so Berdych will have to be aware that being too far short of his best will cost him in this one.
Some of Edmund's better results have come on the slower surfaces and I think fatigue might be an issue for him in the Quarter Final. It won't be easy for Berdych unless he can really improve his serving to keep the pressure on his younger opponent, but I think the top ten player will earn a break more in each set to come through 63, 64 and move into the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Broady + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-3, - 0.70 Units (12 Units Staked, - 5.83% Yield)
With the preparation for the Australian Open continuing at pace, a lot of people will be interested to see where the big names stand at this moment with little tennis played since November before the tournament at Melbourne Park begins.
Any doubts about the Men's favourite have been erased by the way Novak Djokovic has been playing so far in Doha and his previous successes at the Australian Open looks to make him a very strong favourite to win that title. That could change in the final few days in Doha, but looks unlikely at this point, although the draw is still going to be interesting in ten days time to see how it will break down for the World Number 1.
The picks went 2-1 yesterday after Djokovic crushed Fernando Verdasco far easier than I imagined he would. Fortunately both Rafael Nadal and Tomas Berdych were comfortable winners after that to even up the week in terms of winners and losers.
Hopefully that will be pushed on in the final few days and get the season off to a positive beginning.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Anastasia Pavlychenkova: There were a lot of high expectations for the career that Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova was going to have and I think this is a big year for her. There have been some very good matches produced by the Russian which has shown off her talent, but movement has been an issue and consistency has also been a struggle for Pavlyuchenkova.
If she wants to have the career that people expected for her, Pavlyuchenkova has to kick on in 2016 and try to find that consistency that has been lacking. She has had two impressive wins this week, but facing Angelique Kerber is an altogether different challenge for Pavlyuchenkova as the German has the movement and defensive abilities to extract the mistakes that can be a big hindrance to Pavlychenkova.
Kerber is not just a fine defender, but she has the shot making to quickly turn a rally back into her favour and she has been in pretty strong form this week. Since losing the first set to Camila Giorgi, Kerber has won four straight sets for the loss of just six games in total and she has dominated in recent matches against Pavlyuchenkova having won four of five matches including both last season.
I do think Pavlyuchenkova will have her chances to break serve, but Kerber will also have her own opportunities and I like the latter to come through this one. After a tight battle, I think Kerber wins this one 75, 64 to move into the Semi Final.
Naomi Broady + 4.5 games v Sloane Stephens: For all the controversy of Naomi Broady's win in the Second Round, it might have been a little lost that the British player is making some real waves in Auckland this week. Beating Ana Ivanovic in the First Round following a run through the Qualifiers was impressive, but Broady will have to dig deep to see off Sloane Stephens in this Quarter Final.
I think it will be very difficult for Broady to win this match, especially if the drama of yesterday has taken a toll mentally. It was also a long match against Jelena Ostapenko which coupled with the long week already might mean Broady doesn't have a lot left in tank.
Broady is going up against a talented opponent in Stephens who will be looking for a bounce back year having struggled through much of 2015. The second half of the season was much better for the American and she is a player that I can see moving back up the World Rankings very quickly.
However, it has to be said that Stephens can be very inconsistent and that is where Broady might be able to take advantage and keep this very competitive. She has the power and the mental strength to win a set in this one with confidence high from a strong run in Auckland and I think this looks a lot of games for Stephens to cover.
Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 games v Illya Marchenko: It has already been a strong week for Illya Marchenko who has won two matches in Doha while being the underdog in both. Coming back from a set down to beat David Ferrer is never easy, but he might have caught the defending Champion a little cold and that won't be the case at this stage of the week.
He faces Jeremy Chardy who has been a comfortable winner in both of the matches he has played this week and who has to be extremely confident. The Frenchman looks to be Seeded at the Australian Open and he is a player that can be very effective on the court, although the serve can sometimes become a weakness.
The first serve is very good, but Chardy's second serve can be a weakness at time although Marchenko is going to face the same kind of problem. The player who can dominate on the second serve return is going to be the one to move into the Semi Final this week, but I do think Chardy is the more effective player and likely to be in that position.
Both players have only been broken once this week but Chardy is the better player and I think he will come through 76, 64 after a challenging match.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Kyle Edmund: I am 1-1 picking Tomas Berdych matches this week but he came through for me yesterday, even if he didn't produce the best second set that he would have liked. I do think Berdych should be too good for the young Brit Kyle Edmund even if the latter has put together a strong week which should move him into the top 100 of the World Rankings.
After three pretty comfortable wins, Edmund had to dig very deep to win his Second Round match on Wednesday and I do wonder if that has taken something from him physically. Edmund has also not played anyone of the level of Tomas Berdych and I think bridging that gap will be difficult in this Quarter Final.
Edmund is a talented player that can't be underestimated and he showed that he could potentially be making a real move in the World Rankings with his solid appearance in the Davis Cup Final in November. He pushed David Goffin to five sets having taken the first two sets in that Rubber and so Berdych will have to be aware that being too far short of his best will cost him in this one.
Some of Edmund's better results have come on the slower surfaces and I think fatigue might be an issue for him in the Quarter Final. It won't be easy for Berdych unless he can really improve his serving to keep the pressure on his younger opponent, but I think the top ten player will earn a break more in each set to come through 63, 64 and move into the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Broady + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-3, - 0.70 Units (12 Units Staked, - 5.83% Yield)
Friday, 3 January 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (January 3rd)
The tournaments this week will continue on Friday and I have to say I was a touch disappointed with the picks on Thursday- it looked like being the chance of a decent week but both Dustin Brown and Florian Mayer had the chance to serve for the match, and the cover for the picks, but failed to do so and missed out.
Fortunately, Gael Monfils completely outclassed Daniel Brands to at least bring that pick in, although it does mean the profit for the week has gone to this point.
We will be playing Quarter Finals and Semi Finals from the tournaments on Friday and we are now a week away from the draw for the first Grand Slam of the season at the Australian Open. The big story of the day is likely to come from the Serena Williams-Maria Sharapova Semi Final in Brisbane, the first time they have met since their spat at Wimbledon last year.
It is clear that there are some wounds between two players that have never really liked one another, but that should produce a decent match, although Sharapova would be the first to tell you that she has to start winning some matches if this is to be considered a rivalry in the traditional sense.
Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 games v Samuel Groth: Samuel Groth took advantage of Kevin Anderson pulling out of the event to beat a Lucky Loser and earn his place in this Quarter Final in front of his home fans, but I believe the run comes to an end.
Groth spends the majority of his time on the Challenger circuit and while he has a big serve that will cause problems on the faster circuits, he can be erratic off the ground and I can see why he may have struggled to get further up the Rankings and playing at a higher level on a consistent basis.
That may be the difference between himself and Jeremy Chardy who played well at Melbourne Park last year and has won a couple of matches already here in Brisbane.
The Frenchman will look to work behind his own serve and can play some very good tennis, although he is another that may struggle for consistency. However, his level of game should be too good for Groth, although the Australian's serve is likely to force at least one tie-break in a 76, 64 win for Chardy.
Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: Victoria Azarenka had a poor end to the 2013 season which included an early exit at the WTA Championships in Istanbul, but she has made a decent start to the last couple of Tours which has culminated in winning the Australian Open.
Azarenka has won a couple of matches here in Brisbane after reaching the Semi Final a year ago, but I feel she can go at least one step further this year. I don't want to under-estimate Jelena Jankovic who had a resurgence in form last year to move back into the top ten in the World Rankings.
Jankovic was one of the players that beat Azarenka in the WTA Championships Group Stage and also snapped a 4 match losing run against her with that win.
Both women came through three set matches in the Quarter Finals, but Azarenka played in the 'cooler' night conditions and may be in a better place physically, although she hasn't played during the day just yet. If Azarenka can handle the change in conditions, I expect her to come through a tight match with a 64, 64 win.
Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Maria Sharapova: As I mentioned earlier, there is no love lost between these two leading contenders on the WTA Tour and I am backing Serena Williams to come through with a comfortable win against an opponent that missed the last four months on the Tour last season.
It was the pain in the shoulder that forced Sharapova to miss most of the Tour after being surprised in the Second Round at Wimbledon and that meant she was serving with pain. In her Quarter Final win over Kaia Kanepi, Sharapova struggled with her serve to open the match and those issues will be severely punished by someone as good as Williams.
There is no doubt that this is the one opponent that will usually bring the best out of Williams with their off-court issues dominating the headlines. At the moment, Sharapova looks too undercooked to reverse the trend of losing 13 matches in a row in which she has won just 3 sets, and I like Serena to come through with a 62, 64 win.
Benoit Paire - 2.5 games v Marcel Granollers: One of the more polarising up and coming players on the Tour last season was Benoit Paire who seemed to be over-rated by many off the back off a strong run at the Rome Masters during the clay court season.
There is a lot to like about the Paire game, but he struggled to reach those same heights during the rest of the season although he did reach the Semi Final in Chennai last year and has the chance to do the same again to open the 2014 season.
Paire has a decent serve, looks fairly comfortable on the ground and I think he will move up from his current position of 26 in the World Rankings. With that in mind, I expect him to be a little too good for the solid Spaniard Marcel Granollers who is better known for his exploits on the Doubles Tour rather than the Singles.
Granollers did have a decent season last year as a Singles player, but I think he has taken advantage of an extremely kind draw here in Chennai to reach the Quarter Finals and that will come to an end here. The Spaniard has a game that does transfer onto the hard courts effectively, but I still think Paire comes through 64, 64.
Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 games v Yuki Bhambri: It took a Fabio Fognini retirement in the second set to save my pick against Yuki Bhambri yesterday, but I think Vasek Pospisil has the big game to see off the young Indian player in this Quarter Final.
Pospisil improved his position in the World Rankings following the Canadian Masters last summer and that seems to have given him a boost in confidence- little things like that can turn a player loose and playing with that confidence could see him reach the Semi Final here.
He will have the chance to win a few cheap points on serve and the pressure that shot can create on his opponent may see someone like Bhambri snap a couple of times in the match. It can wear down on a player mentally if they are not getting too many chances to break serve and knowing they need to keep holding serve makes them perhaps push a little too hard with nervous energy flowing through them.
That might be the fate for Bhambri in what could ultimately be a 64, 64 loss.
Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Florian Mayer: Has Gael Monfils finally turned a corner as a professional tennis player and is now ready to challenge the best players on the Tour on a regular basis? It is hard to fully trust him, but if he keeps up the form displayed in Doha, he will be a dangerous player throughout 2014.
Monfils crushed Daniel Brands in the Quarter Final, a player that had beaten him three times in a row in 2013, which follows an impressive win over Richard Gasquet. Now he has a strong chance of reaching the Final here as he faces Florian Mayer, a player he has beaten in all 4 previous matches.
We know Mayer is an unpredictable player that can be hard to get a read on, but Monfils has the athleticism to deal with the short drop shots that the German tends to use and also has a big serve to keep Mayer on his toes.
I do think Monfils will create chances to break the Mayer serve and, as long as he serves well, the Frenchman may just reach the Final with a 64, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-6, - 0.97 Units (19 Units Staked, - 5.10% Yield)
Fortunately, Gael Monfils completely outclassed Daniel Brands to at least bring that pick in, although it does mean the profit for the week has gone to this point.
We will be playing Quarter Finals and Semi Finals from the tournaments on Friday and we are now a week away from the draw for the first Grand Slam of the season at the Australian Open. The big story of the day is likely to come from the Serena Williams-Maria Sharapova Semi Final in Brisbane, the first time they have met since their spat at Wimbledon last year.
It is clear that there are some wounds between two players that have never really liked one another, but that should produce a decent match, although Sharapova would be the first to tell you that she has to start winning some matches if this is to be considered a rivalry in the traditional sense.
Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 games v Samuel Groth: Samuel Groth took advantage of Kevin Anderson pulling out of the event to beat a Lucky Loser and earn his place in this Quarter Final in front of his home fans, but I believe the run comes to an end.
Groth spends the majority of his time on the Challenger circuit and while he has a big serve that will cause problems on the faster circuits, he can be erratic off the ground and I can see why he may have struggled to get further up the Rankings and playing at a higher level on a consistent basis.
That may be the difference between himself and Jeremy Chardy who played well at Melbourne Park last year and has won a couple of matches already here in Brisbane.
The Frenchman will look to work behind his own serve and can play some very good tennis, although he is another that may struggle for consistency. However, his level of game should be too good for Groth, although the Australian's serve is likely to force at least one tie-break in a 76, 64 win for Chardy.
Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: Victoria Azarenka had a poor end to the 2013 season which included an early exit at the WTA Championships in Istanbul, but she has made a decent start to the last couple of Tours which has culminated in winning the Australian Open.
Azarenka has won a couple of matches here in Brisbane after reaching the Semi Final a year ago, but I feel she can go at least one step further this year. I don't want to under-estimate Jelena Jankovic who had a resurgence in form last year to move back into the top ten in the World Rankings.
Jankovic was one of the players that beat Azarenka in the WTA Championships Group Stage and also snapped a 4 match losing run against her with that win.
Both women came through three set matches in the Quarter Finals, but Azarenka played in the 'cooler' night conditions and may be in a better place physically, although she hasn't played during the day just yet. If Azarenka can handle the change in conditions, I expect her to come through a tight match with a 64, 64 win.
Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Maria Sharapova: As I mentioned earlier, there is no love lost between these two leading contenders on the WTA Tour and I am backing Serena Williams to come through with a comfortable win against an opponent that missed the last four months on the Tour last season.
It was the pain in the shoulder that forced Sharapova to miss most of the Tour after being surprised in the Second Round at Wimbledon and that meant she was serving with pain. In her Quarter Final win over Kaia Kanepi, Sharapova struggled with her serve to open the match and those issues will be severely punished by someone as good as Williams.
There is no doubt that this is the one opponent that will usually bring the best out of Williams with their off-court issues dominating the headlines. At the moment, Sharapova looks too undercooked to reverse the trend of losing 13 matches in a row in which she has won just 3 sets, and I like Serena to come through with a 62, 64 win.
Benoit Paire - 2.5 games v Marcel Granollers: One of the more polarising up and coming players on the Tour last season was Benoit Paire who seemed to be over-rated by many off the back off a strong run at the Rome Masters during the clay court season.
There is a lot to like about the Paire game, but he struggled to reach those same heights during the rest of the season although he did reach the Semi Final in Chennai last year and has the chance to do the same again to open the 2014 season.
Paire has a decent serve, looks fairly comfortable on the ground and I think he will move up from his current position of 26 in the World Rankings. With that in mind, I expect him to be a little too good for the solid Spaniard Marcel Granollers who is better known for his exploits on the Doubles Tour rather than the Singles.
Granollers did have a decent season last year as a Singles player, but I think he has taken advantage of an extremely kind draw here in Chennai to reach the Quarter Finals and that will come to an end here. The Spaniard has a game that does transfer onto the hard courts effectively, but I still think Paire comes through 64, 64.
Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 games v Yuki Bhambri: It took a Fabio Fognini retirement in the second set to save my pick against Yuki Bhambri yesterday, but I think Vasek Pospisil has the big game to see off the young Indian player in this Quarter Final.
Pospisil improved his position in the World Rankings following the Canadian Masters last summer and that seems to have given him a boost in confidence- little things like that can turn a player loose and playing with that confidence could see him reach the Semi Final here.
He will have the chance to win a few cheap points on serve and the pressure that shot can create on his opponent may see someone like Bhambri snap a couple of times in the match. It can wear down on a player mentally if they are not getting too many chances to break serve and knowing they need to keep holding serve makes them perhaps push a little too hard with nervous energy flowing through them.
That might be the fate for Bhambri in what could ultimately be a 64, 64 loss.
Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Florian Mayer: Has Gael Monfils finally turned a corner as a professional tennis player and is now ready to challenge the best players on the Tour on a regular basis? It is hard to fully trust him, but if he keeps up the form displayed in Doha, he will be a dangerous player throughout 2014.
Monfils crushed Daniel Brands in the Quarter Final, a player that had beaten him three times in a row in 2013, which follows an impressive win over Richard Gasquet. Now he has a strong chance of reaching the Final here as he faces Florian Mayer, a player he has beaten in all 4 previous matches.
We know Mayer is an unpredictable player that can be hard to get a read on, but Monfils has the athleticism to deal with the short drop shots that the German tends to use and also has a big serve to keep Mayer on his toes.
I do think Monfils will create chances to break the Mayer serve and, as long as he serves well, the Frenchman may just reach the Final with a 64, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-6, - 0.97 Units (19 Units Staked, - 5.10% Yield)
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