NFL Week 17 Picks 2022 (January 2-3)

The Christmas and New Year period is a busy one with time being spent with loved ones and so this thread is published a little later than planned.

Of course I cannot begin to write down any thoughts about Week 17 without thinking about John Madden who sadly passed away a few days ago. His Coaching days were over before my time, but Madden was a key voice in the big games and it is the famous game on which is name is attached which was a real important part of my childhood and helped form my love for the NFL.

If you haven't seen it yet, watch the Madden Documentary which ironically came out just days before he passed to see how important John was to the entirety of the sport. He will be missed...

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Football Team Pick: The NFC East has been won by the Dallas Cowboys, but there is still hope for the Philadelphia Eagles (8-7) and Washington Football Team (7-8) when it comes down to earning a place in the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs. It is the Philadelphia Eagles who have been trending in a positive direction and they have their own destiny within their hands as they can secure a top seven place by winning their last two regular season games, while the Football Team are in a much more desperate position.

Even two wins may not be good enough for the Washington Football Team, but this is also a team that has been hit hard by Covid issues and injury down the stretch and who will do well to make up for those players missing out. Antonio Gibson is the big absentee in Week 17 of the season and I do think the Football Team are going to find it difficult to replace his work.

Washington were absolutely embarrassed on Sunday Night Football last week when blown out by the Dallas Cowboys and it led to team-mates punching one another on the sidelines. Frustration was clear on the face of all of the players as Taylor Heinicke struggled at Quarter Back and the feeling is that Ron Rivera will need to make some big decisions in the off-season to get Washington back on track.

The Eagles are also without their top Running Back Miles Sanders, while Jordan Howard is a doubt too. Boston Scott may end up being the lead Back on the day, but the Eagles have a dual-threat at Quarter Back in Jalen Hurts and the system put together has really been one that has appealed to the players on the Offensive side of the ball.

It is a scheme that has seen the Eagles pile up some big yards on the ground and the same happened when they faced the Football Team in Week 15. I think they can pick up from where they left off with Scott capable of doing enough with the ball in his hand and Jalen Hurts likely to also have some big plays on the ground against a Washington Defensive Line which has not been able to clamp down on the run up front.

Running the ball should open things up for the Jalen Hurts at Quarter Back when he steps back to throw down the field and I think he will be able to make some big plays. The pass rush should be negated by keeping the team in third and short and the Football Team have injuries and key players absent in the Secondary too, which bodes well for Jalen Hurts as he pushes the Eagles to the brink of earning a spot in the PlayOffs.

On the other side of the ball, Washington would have struggled to run the ball with Antonio Gibson as the main Running Back and it is likely to be much tougher without him. The Eagles should be able to put Taylor Heinicke under pressure with the struggles of the Football Team Offensive Line in pass protection, and I think that will force the Quarter Back into mistakes that cost his team last week.

Philadelphia are now 5-1-1 against the spread in the last seven games as the favourite, while Washington are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven home games. The Football Team are also 8-20-1 against the spread in their last twenty-nine games against the NFC East and I do think they are short-handed and will be worn down by the Eagles much in the same way as they were a couple of weeks ago.

Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans Pick: History has been made by the Miami Dolphins (8-7) after becoming the first team in the NFL to have won seven straight and lost seven straight in the same season. They are looking to win an eighth game in a row as the Dolphins have moved back into the top seven of the AFC after a win over a injury hit New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football and Miami will be playing in the post-season if they are able to win their remaining two games.

It cannot be disguised that the Dolphins have had this seven game winning run largely against the weaker teams in the NFL or those that have been missing key personnel, but games against the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans (10-5) look much more difficult. The Titans earned a very important win in Week 16 against the San Francisco 49ers and now are a game away from locking up the AFC South and earning a home game in the PlayOff, while they are a game behind the Kansas City Chiefs for the Number 1 Seed in the AFC to earn a Bye through the Wild Card Round.

Both teams have plenty to achieve in this game and the return of AJ Brown proved to be the spark that the Titans needed to win in Week 15 and I think it gives the Titans a different feel to their Offensive play-calling. Tennessee have not been the same without Derrick Henry, but they were not helped with the injury to Brown and his return was huge for former Miami Quarter Back Ryan Tannehill who has rejuvenated his career in Nashville.

Ryan Tannehill will be tested by the much improved Miami Defensive unit, which is healthier and who have been strong in all three units on this side of the ball. You do have to wonder how the Dolphins will be able to handle arguably the best Offense they have faced over their seven game winning run, but an improved Defensive Line should be able to at least force Tannehill to beat them through the air.

Without Derrick Henry it has been much harder for the Titans to run the ball with the same force as they have done previously and it has been an issue for the Offensive Line. Over the last few games the Miami pass rush has also heated up and I do think they are going to get after their former Quarter Back and it will also help the Dolphins Secondary in trying to slow down the Number One Receiver AJ Brown.

The Dolphins will feel their Defensive unit can keep this game competitive, but they will need Tua Tagovailoa to continue to show that he can be the Quarter Back of the franchise going forward. It has been a time when the Dolphins have had to rely on the pass to keep the ball moving on this side of the ball and they are not likely to have a lot of running room in this Week 16 game against a very tough Tennessee Defensive Line.

Jayden Waddle and Mike Gesicki are key Receivers for the Dolphins, but it will not be easy for the Miami Offense to convert on a regular basis if they have been left in third and long spots. Tua Tagovailoa is going to face some pass rush pressure and the Dolphins have to play a clean game to have any chance to win on the road at a very tough Stadium in cold weather.

I do worry how Miami will cope with conditions in Nashville, but this feels like a game in which both Defenses will believe they can get on top of their battles and a low-scoring game is expected. That means the points on offer for the underdog look appealing, even if Miami still have to prove themselves having beaten some bad teams to move back above 0.500 for the season.

The Dolphins are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven games as the road underdog and Miami have thrived as an underdog with Brian Flores as Head Coach.

Mike Vrabel is another top Head Coach who gets the best out of the Titans and they are a very strong home team, but I think this could come down to a Field Goal either way with turnovers likely to be a big part of the outcome. The Miami pass rush are capable of being the big impact makers on the day and I think the Dolphins can do enough to keep this one close.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: Covid issues are having a big impact on the NFL, although the new rules about players needing to isolate for five days will help. It means those players can return if they are able to provide negative Covid tests, although it does make it a little more difficult to make Picks when you are not sure who is going to suit up.

In Week 16, one of the big storylines is the status of Carson Wentz for the Indianapolis Colts (9-6) who can almost secure a spot in the PlayOffs with a victory. There is a considerable drop off from Carson Wentz to Sam Erhlinger and so you can understand why the Colts were as keen to get Wentz back as they have been.

They even made a call to veteran and former Colts Quarter Back Philip Rivers to see if he would think about returning if there are long-term complications for Wentz, but the Quarter Back is available by all reports and the Colts are big favourites to beat the Las Vegas Raiders (8-7).

It has been a really difficult season for the Raiders, who have lost their Head Coach mid-season and had one of their top Receivers arrested since then, but they are still in a position to work their way through to the PlayOffs. A win is all the Raiders need to do this week to keep hopes alive in Week 18, but that is not going to be easy and they are going to have to find a way to keep Jonathan Taylor contained.

Jonathan Taylor has had a huge year for the Colts and I think he should be one of the leading players in line to win the MVP, but it does feel like the Tennessee Titans have done just enough to make sure Indianapolis have to think about the Wild Card places. One more win should be good enough for the Colts, but they will need Taylor at his best against a tough Raiders Defensive Line who have shown improvement when it comes to shutting down the run.

Even then, it is hard to see them putting a full contain on Jonathan Taylor. However, I do think the Raiders can do enough on this side of the ball to force Carson Wentz to try and dink and dunk down the field and that should mean the Raiders can restrict the scoring of the Colts to some extent.

With that in mind, it should be possible for the Raiders to keep this one close if Derek Carr is having one of his better games at Quarter Back- he can be guilty of some very poor decision making and Carr has been without key Receivers down the stretch as he has tried to keep the Raiders alive in the very competitive AFC.

Derek Carr will be desperate to have Darren Waller back, although the Tight End is a game time decision, while better play-calling should give the Raiders a chance of winning this game. They have to lean on Josh Jacobs at Running Back after the big performance in Week 16 and it will be possible for the Running Back to find holes up front against a Colts Defensive Line which has found it tough to stop the run down the stretch.

Running the ball should open up the play-book for Derek Carr and I do think the Las Vegas Raiders can do enough with all of the points they are getting in this one.

Revenge should be on the minds of the Las Vegas players having been blown out at home in December 2020, but the Raiders did win here in 2019.

I have been impressed with the way the Indianapolis Colts have played this season, but I am not sure how good they actually are- the Raiders are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the road underdog and I think they can make use of the points in this game and do enough at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball to keep this on competitive.

MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins + 3 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Las Vegas Raiders + 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cincinnati Bengals + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Detroit Lions + 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Arizona Cardinals + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Midweek Football Picks 2017 (January 2-4)

The quick turnaround in the fixtures this week means I will concentrate on the Premier League games to be played and the picks can be found below for the latest round of fixtures to be played.


Manchester City v Burnley Pick: There are plenty of question marks about Pep Guardiola as Manchester City have struggled over the last couple of months for consistent results and performances. I was one who thought he might be surprised by the intensity of the English Premier League compared to where he had managed before, but Guardiola does need at least a couple of seasons to mould the squad from the one that Manuel Pellegrini left behind.

The loss to Liverpool hurt Manchester City and they can't really afford to finish outside of the top four of the Premier League table and miss the chance to play in the Champions League. However this game certainly gives them a really good chance to bounce back even if Burnley have had back to back confidence boosting wins to move into mid-table.

Burnley also surprised Manchester City two seasons ago by coming from 2-0 down to earn a draw at The Etihad Stadium, but this is a team that has struggled for goals away from home. The Manchester City defence is far from watertight, but I would expect them to dominate the ball and limit the opportunities the away side have.

Keeping clean sheets has been a problem for Manchester City that Guardiola needs to resolve, but I would expect the home team to earn one in this game. They did that against Watford in a home win a few weeks ago and Burnley haven't shown the same ability to score goals away from home as they have at Turf Moor.

The price is perhaps a little shorter than I anticipated, but one that can still be backed as I look for Manchester City to win this game with a clean sheet behind them.


Sunderland v Liverpool Pick: David Moyes could not hide his disgust in the way his Sunderland team played in the loss to Burnley on Saturday and this club looks doomed barring a miracle or heavy investment in the January transfer window. They have at least played better at home with 3 wins from their last 4 games at The Stadium of Light, but those have come against teams in the bottom half of the table.

On the other hand Sunderland have lost heavily against Everton and Arsenal here and then were a little unfortunate in the defeat to Chelsea. However injuries are piling up and their only real hope is that Liverpool are perhaps lacking some energy having kicked off in the late Saturday afternoon slot.

That was a concern for Jurgen Klopp when the fixtures for television were selected a few weeks ago, but he has to be feeling better with 4 wins in a row for his club. Liverpool have played well for the most part too and they have an attacking edge that is going to give Sunderland a lot of problems in this one.

Liverpool have won on three previous visits here and I think it would be a big surprise if they don't make it four in a row considering how Sunderland have played over the last week. They have been conceding too many goals and Liverpool have the players in the final third to expose the vulnerabilities.

The last two wins for Liverpool here have ended 0-1 but I think they win by a little wider margin and I will back the away side to cover the Asian Handicap. They won 0-3 at Middlesbrough a couple of weeks ago and I think Liverpool win this game by at least a two goal margin.


West Ham United v Manchester United Pick: All credit has to be given to Jose Mourinho who made the attacking and risky substitutions that neither David Moyes nor Louis Van Gaal would have made as manager of Manchester United if they had been in the dugout at 0-1 against Middlesbrough on Saturday.

It paid off for Mourinho as Manchester United won 2-1 and there is clearly some confidence being developed at Old Trafford with 12 games unbeaten and 6 wins in a row behind them. A Premier League game against Liverpool looms large in two weeks time, but Manchester United have three games prior to that and won't want to drop momentum before heading into that game.

This is a tough test for them against a West Ham United team who have shown improvement in recent games. The Hammers are playing better at The London Stadium and they have won 2 in a row here since being embarrassed by Arsenal.

However the performance against Hull City was far from up to the standard expected and a similar level to that might see Manchester United running rampant here. There are goals in the away side who have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 away games but Manchester United are slightly short for me to win this one.

I do think Manchester United will need to score at least twice to beat West Ham United who have scored in their last 7 home games in all competitions. That leads me to backing at least three goals to be scored knowing Manchester United could reach this total themselves if they produce their very best in front of goal and this is a fixture that generally does produce at least three goals.


Bournemouth v Arsenal Pick: This feels like it is a big month for Arsenal if they have genuine belief they can win the Premier League table with the fixtures scheduled ahead. Games at Bournemouth are not easy, but teams who want to be Champions have to win here and I think Arsenal can do that during the week.

The Gunners have a run of 4 winnable fixtures ahead of their League game against Chelsea early next month and will expect they can close the 9 point gap to The Blues who are leading the table. In that same time Chelsea have to play at Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool so this is a big month ahead for Arsene Wenger who has insisted Arsenal are capable of winning the title again under his watch.

I do have to say that this is the kind of game that would have tripped up Arsenal in the past, but I also believe Bournemouth are the kind of open football team that will struggle against the top clubs. The 4-3 win over Liverpool is an exception to prove the rule because Bournemouth were down and out in that game at 1-3 and Liverpool looking likely to score a fourth.

Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City have all beaten Bournemouth this season and Arsenal have the kind of talent that will enjoy the spaces they are likely to be given. Bournemouth are a threat going the other way, but Arsenal are unlikely to blow a third away game in a row where they lead 0-1 and I think they close the show if they get in front.

Taking their chances will be key and not letting Bournemouth hang around as Liverpool ultimately did, but this is a team that were beaten by Sunderland and Southampton in recent games at The Vitality Stadium. I expect Arsenal will have too much on the day and I will back them to win at a decent price.


Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea Pick: The 'Battle of Stamford Bridge' at the end of the 2015/16 season will be a memorable game for both Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea players and fans and there won't be any love lost even meeting this early in the season. It won't be lost on Tottenham Hotspur how much joy Chelsea had in stopping them win the title and I think this will be a game that many of the players have looked forward to.

The key for Antonio Conte and Mauricio Pochettino is to take some of the emotion out of the game in fear of losing players to sending offs in what is a very important game for both clubs. A win for Tottenham Hotspur will reignite the Premier League title race, but a win for Chelsea might have a number of people giving The Blues the title already.

I am not sure what I think of Chelsea.

I still believe they are a team that is not as strong as the 13 game winning run would suggest as they have rode their luck on a number of occasions in that time. They are now facing an in-form Tottenham Hotspur team who have been very good at White Hart Lane and scoring goals for fun and I do have a gut feeling the home team will pull the victory.

However they won't have it all of their own way as Tottenham Hotspur have not looked as secure defensively and I can see Chelsea posing a few problems of their own. While the teams have solid defensive stats from their home/away games respectively over the course of the season, I think this might be one that features at least three goals with both teams scoring at least once.

The layers are not sure this will be an open game, but I think they can match the three goals they shared out at Stamford Bridge with a gut feeling telling me that Tottenham Hotspur can be on the right side of the split this time.

MY PICKS: Manchester City Win to Nil @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.98 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)

November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 180-185-8, + 2.77 Units (708 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (January 2nd)

And just like that the 2017 tennis season is upon us with plenty of big stories ready to be written over the next eleven months. There is no doubting it is an incredibly short off-season for the players, although the big names do manage their schedules well enough to earn rest through the year to be ready for the big Grand Slam events.

There are questions on both the ATP and WTA Tours at the very top with players like Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Serena Williams going into the new season with things to prove. It will be interesting to see which of the younger players can consistently produce their best tennis to move amongst the best players in the world, while Andy Murray and Angelique Kerber look to fight off their challengers for the Number 1 World Ranking.

Both of those players head to the first Grand Slam of the season at the Australian Open as the top Seeds for the first time in their careers and it will be interesting to see how they handle that responsibility and media attention. I don't particularly worry for either Murray or Kerber to be honest and I think they will be arguably the favourites in each of the Grand Slam events even if the prices don't always represent that.


The one real big piece of news that springs to mind about the off-season is a the totally disgusting event that Petra Kvitova had to go through- someone intended to rob her house without realising it was Kvitova's place or that she was the one answering the door and in the struggle damaged her left hand.

It means 2017 might be a write off for Kvitova on the Tour, but more worrying is that she may not ever be able to play tennis again which is absolutely a crazy turn of events. I wish her all the best and hope Kvitova not only gets back onto the Tour, but reaches the levels she has prior.


2016 began miserably for the picks in what had been a terrible twelve months which heavily influenced the negative numbers for the last two seasons. However the last five months of the season were positive enough to believe I can take that momentum into the 2017 season and have a much more positive beginning to the season. I missed much of the clay court season last year due to that being the time of the year I was getting ready for my wedding, but hopefully this will help turn around the numbers and get back into the winning runs as I had prior to 2015.


Roberta Vinci v Lesia Tsurenko: Players are much better conditioned these days to play longer than their tennis predecessors did in the past, but Roberta Vinci is now six weeks out from her 34th birthday and I do wonder how much is left in the Italian's tank. However the last few seasons have arguably been the best of her Singles career and Vinci continues to put up the wins in 2016 and looks like a tough competitor at least early in 2017.

The hard courts are actually where Vinci produces her better results which is a surprise because on first glance you would assume an Italian player would prefer the clay courts. However Vinci has had some strong runs on this surface and reached the Quarter Final in Brisbane last season.

I do think she can get the better of Lesia Tsurenko who has been a little more than a journeywoman on the Tour. Tsurenko had a couple of solid, if unspectacular, seasons behind her, but Vinci got the better of this opponent twice in 2016 and both of those wins came on the hard courts.

The form in the latter stages of the 2016 season does make Tsurenko a dangerous First Round opponent for Vinci especially off the long rest and what that can do to the rhythm. Even with that in mind though, I am surprised Vinci is seen at such a big price to win this match and I think she can frustrate Tsurenko while using an under-rated first serve to move through to the Second Round in Brisbane again.


Simona Halep - 4.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: 2016 looked to be a season with significant regression for Jelena Jankovic as a Singles player, but some positive results in the latter half of the season at least put a decent gloss on things. It doesn't hide from the fact that she won the fewest matches on Tour since 2003 and I think Jankovic will do well to turn things around and not follow compatriot Ana Ivanovic into retirement at the end of the 2017 season.

This is an early test for Jankovic to see where she is with her game as she gets set to face Simona Halep in the First Round in Shenzhen. This is not exactly the kind of opening match Halep would have wanted as she finally looks to break her duck at the Grand Slam level and win a title that will move her up from her current level.

Halep is a very good player, but she can be a little erratic protecting serve which makes her vulnerable against some of the best players on the Tour. However I think her movement is now quite clearly much stronger than Jankovic's and that can expose the difference between the players on the court.

These two haven't played one another since Cincinnati in 2015 around eighteen months ago, but Halep had begun to not only get the better of Jankovic, but she had also won the last two matches quite comfortably. I think it might take a little time for Halep to find her rhythm in this opening match, but I do believe her superior movement will offer up more chances to break serve and Halep can win this one 75, 63 to cover the number.


Kyle Edmund - 3.5 games v Ernesto Escobedo: Seeing Andy Murray knighted having achieved all of his goals on the tennis court has to inspire the next generation of British players and it is Kyle Edmund who is leading the way. This is going to be a big season for Edmund to show he can take the next step in his development and I think he can open the season with a win over Qualifier Ernesto Escobedo.

The young American had a couple of impressive wins in the Qualifiers against a couple of veterans of the Tour, but he was beaten by Edmund at the US Open and there looked to be some gap between them. While Escobedo has gone back to the Challenger level for his best results since the US Open, Edmund reached the Fourth Round at Flushing Meadows which led into a solid ending to the 2016 season.

He has worked with Murray in the off season in the past so I fully expect Edmund will have put in the hard graft over the last few weeks to get ready for the 2017 season. He has the superior serve and the harder groundstrokes in this First Round match and I do think he can put that together to good effect against Escobedo.

The fact that Escobedo has a couple of Qualifiers under his belt should mean he can settle quicker than Edmund, but I do think the latter will find his range. At that point he should have the majority of the break point opportunities and also dictate the rallies and I expect Edmund to pull through with a 75, 64 win.


Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Steve Johnson: Over the last twelve months you would have to say that Steve Johnson overachieved considerably and Grigor Dimitrov underachieved as he struggled with his form. However a smaller sample of the last six months suggests the players are now going in opposite directions with Dimitrov showing signs of improvement and Johnson perhaps regressing.

Matches between these players have been close as Dimitrov has had some difficulties getting a read on the Johnson serve and has simply not protected his own service games as well as he should have. They have met five times in a little over eighteen months and all of those matches have been competitive with Dimitrov only just having the edge 3-2.

I think the form to end 2016 should have given Dimitrov some confidence that he can have a big 2017 season and I think he has previously played well at this stage of the season in Australia. He will be put under pressure if Johnson is serving well, but I do think the American has struggled to back up the first serve as well as he did in the early part of 2016.

Johnson had been very good at the big moments early in the season which saw him move up the World Rankings, but I think that was always going to be difficult to maintain. The latter half of the season saw Johnson just struggle at those break point moments and I think Dimitrov will get the better of him here with a 76, 63 win.


Nicolas Almagro v Paolo Lorenzi: There are only four places between Paolo Lorenzi and Nicolas Almagro in the World Rankings and both players are much better on the clay courts than the other surfaces on the Tour. In previous years Almagro wasn't a bad hard court player, but he struggled on the surface last season although I think the Spaniard can get the better of Lorenzi in this First Round encounter in Doha.

Like Almagro, Lorenzi didn't have a very good season when moving onto the hard courts in 2016, but the difference between the players is that Lorenzi has never really shown too much on that surface. His serve is not the biggest meaning he has to work for every point and Lorenzi also doesn't have the groundstrokes to always penetrate defences.

I think he will have more success in this one because of Almagro's movement being a little slower around the court, while some of the consistency on the Spaniard's side of the court is no longer at the level it was. However Lorenzi will have to find a way to stay with Almagro when the latter unleashes his bigger forehand and solid enough first serve and I think that is where Almagro is able to dominate a little more.

Anything but a tight match would be a surprise, but I do think Almagro is perhaps a little under-rated considering the opponent. He has beaten Lorenzi all four times they have met previously, but each of those has been on the clay courts. There is no doubt Almagro is not the player he was, but I consider him the better hard court player and I expect him to move through to the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Roberta Vinci @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2014 (January 2nd)

There were some contrasting fortunes for the picks on New Year's Day as Roger Federer marched into the Quarter Final in Brisbane, but Andy Murray was knocked out in the Second Round in Doha.

The individual picks for the day went 2-2 for the second day in a row, but fortunately the unit-managing has meant the profit has improved for the week, albeit by a smaller amount than I would have liked.

It's a long season on the tennis Tour so there is no reason to be alarmed and I would much rather have a winning start to the season than the other way around.


Fabio Fognini win 2-0 v Yuki Bhambri: This is Fabio Fognini's first match of the new season and he is hardly someone that you would back with any real confidence, even in a match where he seems to have most of the aces.

Fognini had a decent middle of last season which saw him moving up the Rankings, but he hasn't really kicked on in the manner that some would have hoped.

His game will always give opponents a chance as he doesn't have the overwhelming shot and has to grind players down. However, that grinding side to his game should work well enough against Yuki Bhambri who has been given a Wild Card into the event.

The young Indian player had a decent win in the First Round which will give him some confidence but I am not sure if he has the consistency to beat someone like Fognini who will try and get as many balls back in play and force Bhambri to perhaps push a little too hard.

I think Fognini should be a little too good, but can't have anything more than a small interest in the Italian winning this one in straight sets.


Dustin Brown - 1.5 games v Peter Gojowcyzk: I don't think too many people would have predicted this to be a Quarter Final in Doha this week and the winner will not only earn some very important Ranking points, but they will also have the chance to perhaps take on Rafael Nadal for a place in the Final this weekend.

That should motivate Dustin Brown and Peter Gojowcyzk no end in this match and both players are coming off tough Second Round wins. After coming through the qualifiers, fitness will also be an important factor to separate the players, but Dustin Brown will have good memories of beating Gojowcyzk here last year.

Brown's win in the qualifiers last year over Gojowcyzk improved his record to 3-1 between these players that would both know each other fairly well as both are based in Germany. I do think Brown has the more unpredictable game, especially if he is half a step slow to the net with his attacking tennis after a week on the court under his feet.

However, Brown has the experience of beating this opponent and has a game that looks like one that can cause a lot of problems for players outside of the top 100 and I will look for him to come through 63, 46, 64.


Florian Mayer - 3.5 games v Victor Hanescu: I am not a fan of backing a player immediately after they are coming off a huge surprise win, but I do think Florian Mayer can follow his win over Andy Murray with another in this Quarter Final.

Coming off a surprise victory can be tough for players from an emotional standpoint and it can be tough to invest the necessary concentration for the next match, especially when coming up against an unheralded opponent. Victor Hanescu is certainly much more comfortable on the clay courts these days, and he too is coming off a surprise win when beating Fernando Verdasco in three sets.

Hanescu does have a game that can earn him a lot of points on the faster surfaces, but I think he has lost a step when it comes to defending on these courts and that hasn't helped his record which was a poor 2-9 on the outdoor hard courts last season.

He will be able to have a go at the Mayer serve, but the erratic and unpredictable play of the German is much more difficult to read at times. The first set may be close, but I have a feeling that Mayer will be able to come through and then follow that with a more straight-forward second set to go through to the Semi Final with a 76, 63 win.


Gael Monfils - 1.5 games v Daniel Brands: It was one of the strange occurrences of the early portion of the 2013 season that Daniel Brands beat Gael Monfils in all three matches they played before the French Open including here in Doha at the same stage.

So why am I taking Monfils? I think a lot of last season was down to the fact that Monfils was trying to play through injuries and I believe the Frenchman is the more talented player, even if he is the more unpredictable too.

Daniel Brands has a decent serve, but I don't think he is that effective on the ground and I think Monfils has the game that should be able to wear him down. It didn't last season and Monfils will have to serve a lot better to make sure he is in a position to get his first win over Brands, but there were signs at the end of last season that Monfils was returning to form.

The flamboyant Frenchman played well against Richard Gasquet and I think he will be motivated to at least start righting the head to head between these players and I like Monfils to come through 64 76.

MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini win 2-0 @ 2.30 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Dustin Brown - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Florian Mayer - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-4, + 1.43 Units (13 Units Staked, + 11% Yield)

Tennis Picks (January 2nd)

I have made a slow start to the new season as you can't always try and second guess how some players have come off their break- a lot of them haven't played for a couple of months now and it is understandable that there will be some surprise results in the next two weeks.

Most of the 'big name' players are already pretty much focused on getting themselves ready for the Australian Open that begins on January 14th and that has already seen the likes of Rafael Nadal out of the event, while Maria Sharapova is a potential big name player out of the Woman's draw.


Yesterday, Tatsuma Ito didn't get the job done against John Millman- Ito actually let 3-2 in the first set with a break of serve, but almost nothing went right from him going on from that point and he lost 10 of the next 12 games to fall to a comfortable loss. That means I am still up for the first couple of days, although the 100% record for the picks is finished on the first day of the calender year and second day of the tennis season.

I only jest of course, show me someone who gets 100% picks right and I'll show you a liar!!


With the way the tournaments are being played this week, I will make my picks from the tournaments in New Zealand, Australia, China and India early, and I will update if there are any additions from the tournament in the Middle East. I hate having to do things this way as it can look like 'chasing' if early picks are unsuccessful, but unfortunately the layers don't keep up and the proper markets are down until the morning for Doha, while the other tournaments are priced up 'a day early' with the timezone difference.


Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games v Sabine Lisicki: Victoria Azarenka is the official Woman's Number 1 as Serena Williams just doesn't play enough tournaments to take that off of her, but she is not like Caroline Wozniaki... Azarenka is the second best player in the Woman's game in my opinion and she is a real threat to win any of the Grand Slam tournaments this season, especially if she can avoid playing Williams.

With that in mind, I think Azarenka will be far too consistent for Sabine Lisicki, a player that I would consider as under-achieving in her career so far. They met towards the back end of last season and Azarenka had considerable success on the Lisicki serve and anything like that here will see her have a chance to cover.

My biggest concern is that this is Azarenka's first match of the new season, but memories of her incredibly fast start to last season is still fresh in my mind and I like her chances in this one to win with a 6-2, 6-4 scoreline.


Mikhail Youzhny v Nikolay Davydenko: Both of these players will know each other very well and both are now coming towards the back end of their respective careers.

Mikhail Youznhy and Nikolay Davydenko have been priced as a pick 'em contest for the most part, but I think Youzhny is the tougher player mentally and is less likely to give the match away if things are not going his way.

Last season, it quickly became clear that Davydenko's consistency, which had helped him reach the heights of the ATP Tour, was no longer as devastating as it once was and he makes far too many mistakes these days. I think Youzhny now will be able to hold his own on the ground and I think it is telling that he has won the last two meetings between these players on the Tour.

I feel Youzhny will make it a hat-trick of wins in a row against Davydenko in this one.


Gael Monfils v Philipp Kohlschreiber: I do get frustrated watching Gael Monfils sometimes as he looks like a player that has all the talent in the World but doesn't want to put in the long hours to get everything possible out of his own potential.

However, with all that said, I really missed seeing the Frenchman on the Tour for much of last season and it was good to see him playing in a couple of tournaments at the end of last season in anticipation of this year.

I am surprised that the layers have set him as the underdog in this one considering Monfils has said that he is 100% fine and has set himself a goal of reaching the top ten. I am hoping his enforced lay off will make him appreciate what he gets to do as a 'job' and may also build the fire to improve within him.

Philipp Kohlschreiber is a tough opponent, but Monfils has beaten him in 7 of their 8 professional matches, while the Frenchman also took care of him in his first tournament back in action after a 6 month lay off. Monfils shouldn't be the underdog and I'll back him to win this one.


MY PICKS: Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny @ 2.00 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Gael Monfils @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 2-1, + 2.06 (4 Units Staked, + 51.5% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks (January 1-2)

The festive period was a tough time to get a real read on games as managers made changes and tiredness effected some squads a lot more than others. It was a tough couple of rounds to end the month which meant a small loss was made, but it has been a productive season so far so there aren't too many reasons to complain, if any at all.


Manchester City v Stoke City Pick: I know Stoke City have statistically got one of the best defences in Europe (or they did have before conceding three to Southampton at the weekend), but I think those goals conceded to the Saints may have burst their bubble somewhat.

Manchester City have not been the free-scoring side of twelve months ago, but they may just have turned a corner with the four goals they got at Norwich City. City have also not been the all-conquering side at the Etihad Stadium that they were a season ago, but they have usually been too good for Stoke and I think they will likely win this game by a couple of goals at the least.


Tottenham Hotspur v Reading Pick: Tottenham Hotspur have been a lot better away from home than they have been at White Hart Lane and the absence of Gareth Bale will not help matters in this one. However, they are facing a Reading team that has struggled on their own travels and I think Spurs are going to win this game.

The home side have also picked up a couple of clean sheets in recent home games and Reading have really struggled for goals away from home. With Spurs also conceding just 1 goal in their last 4 Premier League games and Reading failing to score in 4 straight away games, the Spurs win to nil looks the best angle on this game.


West Ham United v Norwich City Pick: Both of these sides have just hit a bad patch of form as they meet one another and the three points will be vital for both to ensure they keep a nice buffer between themselves and the relegation trouble brewing below them.

Both sides seem to have similar issues in recent weeks- both look capable of scoring goals but have also struggled defensively and I will look for that to be the case when they meet at Upton Park. Neither team will be that happy with a draw and I see one of them winning this game 2-1 so taking the chance of there being goals in this one looks the best call.


Wigan Athletic v Manchester United Pick: Many Manchester United fans point to the 4-4 draw with Everton last season as the one that ultimately cost us the title, but I think Rene Meulensteen is more correct in suggesting the defeat at Wigan Athletic was the more damaging result.

I expect United to be on high alert as they come back to the DW Stadium for the first time since then and I think there is a chance that United are going to start picking up more clean sheets going forward. They earned one at the weekend against West Brom and the return of Nemanja Vidic does make United that much more solid.

They have conceded just 2 goals against Wigan in 11 previous games against them and I think everyone knows what to expect from Roberto Martinez' side in this one- they will try and pass the ball and I think they will create some chances, but I fancy United to join Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal and become the latest side to win here with a clean sheet to boot.


Southampton v Arsenal Pick: I was struggling to find any real angle with this game except that I liked Arsenal to win it and so I will take the away side in this one.

We saw what Arsenal did to a tired Newcastle United side on Saturday and I think they may be getting Southampton at the right time following their efforts in a 3-3 draw with Stoke City when they were mentally worked over at the end of the game while trying to hang on to the three points.

With only a couple of rest days, there is every chance they will be feeling worn out and Arsenal certainly have the players that can punish them, particularly as they had an extended break during the festive period that other teams did not enjoy.

There are goals in the Arsenal side and I think they will be too strong for Southampton when it is all said and done.


Chelsea v Queens Park Rangers Pick: Rafa Benitez has definitely helped Chelsea improve defensively in recent games and they have actually picked up clean sheets in 3 of their last 4 games at Stamford Bridge.

I fancy them to get another one in this game in a winning effort as Queens Park Rangers looked like a side that definitely needs some new faces to freshen up their squad if they are to survive in the Premier League this season.

They barely created a chance against Liverpool and I think it may be more of the same in this one. At the prices, the Chelsea win to nil looks like the right call.


Liverpool v Sunderland Pick: Sunderland have shown some tough recent form which gives me enough belief that the prices on Liverpool are far too short in this one. Martin O'Neill has got his side playing a little better in recent weeks and have begun moving up the table.

Liverpool had a terrible home record throughout 2012 and they just shouldn't be as short as they are, even though they have won 3 of their last 4 at Anfield in the Premier League. However, the exception in that time was that shocking 1-3 loss to Aston Villa and I just don't think they should be trusted.

With the prices being as low as they are, it means Sunderland are given a 1.5 head start on the Asian Handicap and I'll look to them to make this a tight, tough contest for Liverpool and not to get beaten comfortably.


MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur Win to Nil @ 2.30 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
West Ham United-Norwich City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Manchester United Win to Nil @ 3.50 Coral (1 Unit)
Arsenal @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Chelsea Win to Nil @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Sunderland + 1.5 Asian Handicap (1 Unit)



December Final: 17-24-1, - 0.83 Units (53 Units Staked, - 0.02 % Yield)
November Final: 8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)

Season 2012/13: + 18.84 Units (203 Units Staked, + 9.28 % Yield)

English Football Midweek Picks (January 2-4)

Seriously, I was so annoyed on Saturday as every pick I made seemed to get close to succeeding and then falling over.
Here is a recap of some of the crazy crap that afflicted me:

Andy Carroll hits the bar from 4 yards out and misses at least two other chances that he should have gobbled up.

Bolton and Wolves share 2 goals in the first 50 odd minutes and then proceed to hit the woodwork and both team miss glorious chances to score the goal that would have taken the game over.

Norwich and Fulham sees the first goal go in after 7 minutes, only then to see each keeper make big saves before a second finally hits the back of the net in the 94th minute.

Arsenal win 1-0 as Theo Walcott decides to miss a chance when he is through on goal with the keeper to beat, while Gervinho somehow diverts the ball wide from 3 yards out from just inside the middle of the goal.

Manchester United and Manchester City lose to teams that were priced at 28-1 and 13-1.

Tottenham looked like getting lucky by winning at Swansea but concede thanks to a Brad Friedal error in the last 6 minutes and fail to grab the points.

I am truly hoping that the New Year brings a change of fortunes because the last couple of gameweeks in 2011 saw about a hundred draws, while the favourites consistently failed to win games (Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester City and Tottenham have all failed to win at least 1 of their last 2 games, in some cases failing to win either).

Blackburn Rovers v Stoke City Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12851-Blackburn-Rovers-v-Stoke-City.htm)

Wolves v Chelsea Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12852-Wolves-v-Chelsea.htm)

Fulham v Arsenal Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12853-Fulham-v-Arsenal.htm)

Manchester City v Liverpool Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12872-Manchester-City-v-Liverpool.htm)

Tottenham Hotspur v West Brom Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12873-Tottenham-Hotspur-v-West-Brom.htm)

Newcastle United v Manchester United Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12879-Newcastle-United-v-Manchester-United.htm)

Everton v Bolton Wanderers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12880-Everton-v-Bolton-Wanderers.htm)


MY PICKS: Blackburn Rovers-Stoke City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Wolves-Chelsea Draw @ 4.33 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Fulham-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester City @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (3 Units)
Manchester United Win to Nil @ 3.10 SkyBet (1 Unit)
Everton-Bolton Wanderers Time of Last Goal after 73 minutes @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)