Australian Open Tennis Day 5 Picks 2025 (Thursday 16th January)

The Australian Open continues to roll forward and the remainder of the Second Round will be completed on Day 5 at the tournament.

Challenges will increase for the players over the coming days with the competition level increasing at the same time as the temperatures are expected to become much, much hotter and it can bring another factor to the table to consider.

A 2-1 record on Day 4 is welcomed, but there is still some frustration from the fact that Felix Auger-Aliassime blew a 2-0 lead over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, although not nearly the same level the Canadian will be feeling after a disappointing early exit from the Grand Slam event in Melbourne.

It still pushes things forward for the Tennis Picks, but Day 5 looks like being the busiest one yet for the selections being made and could have a big impact on the direction this tournament is going to travel.

Karen Khachanov - 1.5 sets v Gabriel Diallo: There is one Diallo making a big impact on a global stage by representing Manchester United Football Club, but Gabriel Diallo is hoping that his own name will also become well known for achievements in his own sport.

The Canadian is playing at his career best World Ranking and the First Round win over Luca Nardi means Gabriel Diallo will be improving that mark further. He did need over four hours to win that First Round match in five sets, but Gabriel Diallo looked the stronger player in the last couple of sets and also snapped a run of consecutive defeats, both to Italian players.

Last September, Gabriel Diallo reached the Third Round of the US Open and his game is very well suited to the hard courts. Winning matches will build confidence and he has built scoreboard pressure on his opponents by holding 87% of the service games played in 2025.

The opening draws have helped and it should be noted that Gabriel Diallo allowed 15 Break Points in his opening win in Melbourne.

Now the test is also much greater for the 23 year old when he goes up against Karen Khachanov, who won his First Round match against veteran Adrian Mannarino in straight sets. The World Number 19 has not really been able to become a consistent fixture in the top ten, but Karen Khachanov is a strong hard court player and he looks to hold a considerable edge over Gabriel Diallo on the returning numbers.

That could be key in a match that may need tie-breakers to separate the players within sets, while Karen Khachanov also holds the mental advantage over Gabriel Diallo having beaten him twice on the Tour.

Both wins were on the hard courts in matches played over the last six months and the higher Ranked player has held 87% of his service games compared with a 68% mark from Gabriel Diallo. In the two matches combined, Diallo has created 9 Break Points, but Karen Khachanov created 19 Break opportunities when beating the Canadian in Almaty to take the title in their most recent match.

You do have to feel that Karen Khachanov is still at the peak of his powers at 28 years old and he can back up those previous victories over Gabriel Diallo by riding his return game to another victory in the Second Round at the Australian Open.

Francisco Cerundolo - 1.5 sets v Facundo Diaz Acosta: Two compatriots meet in the Australian Open Second Round and both Francisco Cerundolo and Facundo Diaz Acosta will feel this is an opportunity to begin to reverse the slide in their individual World Rankings.

It is Francisco Cerundolo who is the higher Ranked of the two Argentine players taking to the court, but the head to head is split after four games and that means Facundo Diaz Acosta deserves his respect.

A Quarter Final run as a Lucky Loser in Auckland does mean Facundo Diaz Acosta has produced a number of wins already in 2025, which can build confidence. The test for Diaz Acosta is recovering after needing over four hours on the court in the First Round to earn his place in this match, while he is clearly a player who is much more comfortable on a clay court rather than a hard court.

The disappointing early exit in Auckland is a part of a tough twelve months for Francisco Cerundolo, but the World Number 31 crushed Alexander Bublik in the First Round in Melbourne.

Make no mistake about the significance of that win and performance against a player who only barely missed out on a Seed for the Australian Open.

Backing up that kind of performance will never be easy, but the experience of Francisco Cerundolo will help.

Much like other South American players, Francisco Cerundolo is not at his most comfortable on this surface, but he has found a consistent level and one that could be enough to see him move past his lower Ranked countryman.

All four of the previous matches between these players have been on the clay courts and the only one in 2024 was won by Facundo Diaz Acosta, but the surface in Melbourne should allow Francisco Cerundolo to get a bit more out of the serve.

Ultimately that could be key in what is likely to be a match filled with plenty of rallies, but just having a few more cheaper points may just put Francisco Cerundolo in a position to win this one in three or four sets.

Daniil Medvedev - 6.5 games v Learner Tien: He may not be everybody's cup of tea, but tennis needs characters like Daniil Medvedev who are not afraid to say what they think.

His actions on the court turn some people the other way- the destruction of the net camera during his First Round win over World Number 418 Kasidit Samrej produced plenty of headlines, but Daniil Medvedev was able to avoid the upset in a five set win and remains a potential dark horse to win the Australian Open title.

There is no doubt that Daniil Medvedev will need to be a lot stronger than his First Round showing, and he is looking to bounce back from what was a dip in his performances on the hard courts throughout 2024. Prior to that, Medvedev was amongst the very best on the Tour on this surface, but he has slipped significantly behind Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz and bridging that gap is the challenge that the World Number 5 has to face.

A stronger start will be needed if Daniil Medvedev is going to make this a more comfortable match than the First Round ended up being, especially as he is facing 19 year old Learner Tien who has come through three Qualifying Rounds and then won his First Round match against an opponent Ranked higher than himself.

Learner Tien is just building his experience on the Tour right now and he is very comfortable on this surface, but he is still operating mainly on the Challenger Tour and this is a huge step up for him.

He does have a 6-5 record against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts, but Learner Tien's service numbers have dropped to winning below 60% of points played. Someone like Daniil Medvedev will look to get plenty of balls back in play and test Tien's temperament and that is key to the outcome of this one.

Cameron Norrie beat Learner Tien pretty comfortably in Hong Kong and it may need some special tennis and an underperforming Daniil Medvedev performance to make this a really competitive match.

The top ten player has won his last fourteen matches at hard court Grand Slam events against opponents Ranked outside the top 100 and Daniil Medvedev might double down his focus after being given a scare in the First Round. He is likely to be faced with a tough opening set, but Medvedev should be able to move through the gears and eventually pull away from the young American with a strong win on the scoreboard.

MY PICKS: Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Francisco Cerundolo - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Holger Rune @ 2.20 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Ons Jabeur - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 7-3, + 4.86 Units (18 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2024 (Tuesday 16th January)

The Tennis season is a long one and there are going to be plenty of opportunities to recover from a bad day or two.

In saying that, the first two days of 2024 have been historically bad for the selections and it has been very difficult to take.

Some bad Picks have been made, but there are three or four selections that you can point to straight away that were literally a point or two going in my favour, yet all have ended up slipping down the wrong side.

The Felix Auger-Aliassime win over Dominic Thiem summed it up after he blew a 2-0 lead in sets, only to rally and win anyway. So while he won't care and has his place booked in the next Round, I am left a little frustrated and irritated that another Pick has gone down from a very good winning position.

As I wrote on the Day 2 thread, the plan is to update all totals from the First Round in the Day 4 thread. Suffice to say the numbers are going to look pretty terrible, but we do have an opportunity to rally back even if some of the poor luck has had me second guessing some of the Picks made.

Assuming, which can be a mistake, that players are going to begin to play hard until hearing 'game, set, match', the Day 3 Picks can be seen below.

Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Dominik Koepfer: Two German ATP players meet in the Australian Open First Round on Tuesday, although Alexander Zverev will be carrying the hopes of the nation much more than Dominik Koepfer.

After a solid performance at the United Cup and a strong second half to the 2023 season, which started inconsistently after Alexander Zverev returned from an injury, the former World Number 2 is back up to Number 6 in the current World Rankings. He has very few Ranking points to defend at the Australian Open and Alexander Zverev will certainly feel he can get much closer to the top players in the coming weeks and months.

Winning a maiden Grand Slam title has to remain the goal for Alexander Zverev and he certainly has the capabilities to be a threat at three of the four Grand Slams played. Wimbledon is perhaps his weakest Slam, but this is a player who can really build momentum and is a definite threat to the top names on the Tour.

The First Round draw could have been easier, but Alexander Zverev does hold a couple of wins over his compatriot on the pro Tour.

Those were played in 2021, but Zverev was the dominant player and he should be able to exert his dominance on this match in the best of five set format.

Overlooking Dominik Koepfer would be a mistake, but the World Number 62 has lost his last four matches against top 50 Ranked opponents. Having a lefty serve could make things awkward for Alexander Zverev, although the latter has won his last twelve matches against southpaw players.

Dominik Koepfer did win a title on the Challenger Tour in the build up to the Australian Open so confidence is not going to be an issue, and he is certainly capable of serving well enough to stay with Alexander Zverev. However, the issue may be doing enough to pressure Zverev with his own return and that is where Dominik Koepfer is likely to come up a little short at the big moments.

Jack Draper - 5.5 games v Marcos Giron: Coming up a little short to win a maiden ATP Title will have been a disappointment for Jack Draper last week in Adelaide, but he should still be feeling good about his chances of having an impact at the first Grand Slam of the season. The British youngster has flashed his potential already on the Tour, but Draper needs a bit more luck with injuries that have prevented him from really kicking on.

He looks to have landed in a decent section of the Australian Open draw and that should give Jack Draper a chance to have a strong Grand Slam performance, which will also get him moving back towards his career best World Ranking mark.

First up for the British player is Marcos Giron, a veteran on the Tour who tends to play his best tennis on a hard court.

However, Marcos Giron is 30 years old now and his numbers have been relatively flat compared with Jack Draper on the hard courts over the last twelve months. Even removing Draper's performances on the Challenger Tour and you can see that the lefty has the superior serve and has been able to back that up with enough from the return game to string plenty of wins together.

The American is doing enough to keep his Tour Ranking in a decent place to enter most of the big tournaments, but Marcos Giron has been inconsistent over the last twelve months. There have been flashes with Giron reaching the last four in Tokyo after the US Open, but unkind draws have meant he has been beaten in the First Round in each of his last four appearances at the hard court Slams combined.

You have to believe that Marcos Giron and his team will look at Jack Draper as a winnable First Round match compared with some of those he has faced recently, but the younger player looks to be a progressing force on the Tour. Marcos Giron was beaten early in his only warm up tournament ahead of the Australian Open and the only concern about backing Jack Draper is the fact he reached the Final in Adelaide a few days ago.

However, it is positive for him to be scheduled for a Tuesday start in Melbourne and Jack Draper should be able to exert enough of his will on the match to eventually come through and with a cover of this handicap mark.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jack Draper - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tommy Paul - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Danielle Collins - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Katie Boulter - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2023 (January 16th)

It is one of the shortest off-seasons in professional sports, but the Tennis Tour has returned for another long slog in 2023.

We are already two weeks into the season, but that is usually a time when I would take a look and see how players have used the time off between tournaments, while others are overcoming early fitness issues and mentally preparing for the first Grand Slam of the season.

Over the last several months I have taken a bit of time away from the Tennis Picks as I have made a readjustment to how I am identifying selections. I believe I was making one or two mistakes with the selection process and that has to be improved going into the 2023 season after the drop between the 2021 and 2022 successes.

I will have a fuller post for Day 2 with a few thoughts on the draw at the Australian Open, but the nature of the event and the time difference between Melbourne and London means the focus in this thread is on the Day 1 Picks as the opening Slam of what could be another intriguing tennis season begins on Monday.

Jannik Sinner - 8.5 games v Kyle Edmund: It isn't that long ago that Kyle Edmund had taken over the top British player on the ATP Tour, but injury has really pushed him back over the last couple of years. Limited time spent on the Tour means Kyle Edmund is not well outside the top 500 in the World Rankings and the next twelve months is going to be a challenging time for the recently turned 28 year old as he looks to rebuild.

Protected Ranking benefits will mean Kyle Edmund can enter some of the bigger tournaments and putting a few wins together will really see him rocket up the World Rankings and avoid having to completely 'start again'. However, Edmund will quickly have realised that the Tour has not stopped in his absence and a new group of talented players have deepened the ATP pool, which will contribute to the difficulty of getting his career back on track.

Two losses in opening matches in a couple of ATP events held in Adelaide will have given Kyle Edmund an indication of the kind of gap he has to bridge having been beaten by two players Ranked inside the top 30.

Kinder draws would certainly help Edmund as he looks to pick up the Ranking points while being able to use the Protected Ranking to enter the main Tour events, but that has not been the case in Melbourne as he prepares to face Jannik Sinner for a second time this month.

The Italian reached the Quarter Final at both the Australian Open and US Open last year and he was only beaten in an epic five setter by eventual winner Carlos Alcaraz at the latter event. The positives of the performance from that day will have Jannik Sinner enter this Grand Slam event with big expectations, even in the loaded top half of the draw which features the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal, the two Finalists from 2022.

Jannik Sinner will know that the serve has to be a little more reliable if he is going to become a Grand Slam Champion, but he is certainly progressing towards that. His return of serve can be very effective on the hard courts, as Kyle Edmund found out a couple of weeks ago, and I think Sinner is going to be able to exert enough pressure to break down a talented, but match rusty opponent.

Making 'easier' work of the early Rounds of a Grand Slam is another area in which Jannik Sinner can find improvement as he continues moving up the World Rankings and I do expect him to remain focused in this one. He can sometimes throw in a bad service game or two and that makes life more challenging, but Sinner dominated behind the serve against Edmund in Adelaide and he should be able to largely get on the front foot and dictate rallies in this one too.

This is a big spread, make no mistake about that, but I think Jannik Sinner has shown he has the kind of numbers on serve and return which can see him break down the Kyle Edmund game again, and come through relatively unscathed.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 8.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cori Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

NFL Divisional Round PlayOff Picks 2021 (January 16-17)

I have to say I love the NFL PlayOffs, but I did not love the way the Super Wild Card Round Weekend ended for the Picks.

We move into the Divisional Round which has been a little predictable in recent seasons with the rest that the top two Seeds used to get, but things have changed in the 2020 season and now only one team was resting last weekend from each Conference.

It will be interesting to see what kind of trends come out from the Number 2 Seed in each Conference in the coming years with their activity in the Wild Card Round, although I would expect the NFL to decide to expand the PlayOffs to eight teams from each Conference sooner rather than later. That is likely to happen even though the regular season will move to seventeen games, perhaps even as soon as 2021, although I do wonder if it will weaken the need for teams to push themselves for the Number 1 Seed in the years ahead.

There does look to be four very good looking games in the Divisional Round of the 2020 PlayOffs and I am looking forward to seeing them all. The second game on both Saturday and Sunday is the one I am most keenly interested in on both days, but it should be a very good weekend regardless.

Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Super Wild Card Round lived up to the expectations, but the Divisional Round looks like it could be even better with the NFL down to eight teams who can win the Super Bowl. First up is the opening PlayOff game for the Number 1 Seed in the NFC as the Green Bay Packers face the Los Angeles Rams who upset the Seattle Seahawks in the Super Wild Card Round.

Winning any PlayOff game has to be celebrated, but it was not a perfect day for the Rams who lost their starting Quarter Back John Wolford very early on in the victory. John Wolford has already been ruled out for the Divisional Round game and that means Jared Goff will have to show he has overcome the pain and awkwardness that is associated with a broken thumb, although the Quarter Back is more positive about his diagnosis than Head Coach Sean McVay sounds like he is.

Regardless it is Goff who will be starting on Saturday, but the other key elements from the win over Seattle has to be the injuries sustained by Aaron Donald and Cooper Kuup. Both are not going to sit out the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs, but you do have to wonder if they are going to be anything near as effective as they can be at their best and that is an issue for the Rams against a rested Number 1 Seed.

Both Donald and Kuup have said they are feeling ok and are ready to go, and they are going to be very important for the Los Angeles Rams who will also be dealing with some incredibly tough conditions. It is doubly difficult when you are used to Californian weather in January rather than Wisconsin and I do think that will be an issue for the Rams that is much more difficult to factor in.

It is going to be difficult for Jared Goff and the entire Offensive unit when it comes to moving the ball with some consistency and it was the Defensive side of the ball which helped them see off the Seattle Seahawks in the Super Wild Card game. The entire Rams playbook is opened up by how well Los Angeles are able to run the ball so they will lean heavily on Cam Akers again this week and over the years it has been a weakness for the Green Bay Packers to shut down the run.

While the game is close and competitive I do think the Rams can have some success moving the ball on the ground and that will open up the game for Jared Goff. Even then I do have to wonder how Goff's thumb is going to feel in the cold of Green Bay in January, while he will also be well aware that the Packers pass rush has been efficient and the Secondary is the strength of this Defensive unit.

The Rams can thank their Defensive unit for helping the team score 30 points last week, but before that they had not scored more than 20 points in three consecutive games. That should underline the issues the team may have in this one in scoring enough points to win the game, although Los Angeles will be looking to lean on the Defense again in this big game.

Stopping Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers team which has scored at least 24 points in each of their last nine games is going to be a big challenge for the Rams no matter how well they have played of late. Aaron Rodgers has played like the MVP all season as he has continued to get the best out of the Receivers he is working with, while the Quarter Back is very much on the same page as his Head Coach despite some suggestions they don't see eye to eye last season.

That is a positive, but more of a concern for the Number 1 Seed is the injuries on the Offensive Line- that Line has been key to keeping Aaron Rodgers upright and also opening some big holes on the ground, but both aspects of the game could be challenged by this Rams Defensive Line which has been a huge success for Los Angeles this season.

There have been signs that the Defensive Line is now a little banged up and that is possible that the likes of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams can have success running the ball, but that would have been a stronger feeling if Green Bay had their full Offensive Line available. Both Jones and Williams will be important to just give the Packers the balance they are going to need and to also keep Rodgers and the passing game in front of the sticks.

All season we have seen Aaron Rodgers produce some big drives as he targets Davante Adams, but that connection is likely to be disrupted by Jalen Ramsey. The lockdown Corner Back has been able to get the better of every Receiver he has faced this season and is expected to follow Adams wherever he lines up, although I do think Green Bay's Head Coach Matt LaFleur will be looking to scheme Adams open where he can.

It will mean others need to step up for Rodgers in the passing game, although the Rams Secondary have continued to play at a high level and finding spaces won't be easy. Aaron Rodgers will have to be careful of Interceptions, but I do think having the time to prepare and having Matt LaFleur's inside knowledge of Sean McVay's workings will give the Packers the edge.

Number 1 Seeds as the home favourite having not played well against the spread in the Divisional Round in recent seasons, but I do think there are enough factors to favour the Packers here. Key players are banged up for the Los Angeles Rams, the weather is going to be a really difficult one for the Rams to deal with and Aaron Rodgers has generally been very strong at home through his career with Green Bay.

The Rams do have a solid record as a road underdog and covered in that spot in the outright upset in the Super Wild Card Round, but Green Bay are 4-1 against the spread in their last five home PlayOff games. They are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the PlayOff favourite and I do think Aaron Rodgers will be able to make a few more plays than Jared Goff which will make the difference on the day.

I did mention that Number 1 Seeds as Divisional Round favourites have not played well in recent seasons, but teams coming off an upset win in the Wild Card Round are 25-35-1 against the spread in their next game.

I also love the fact that teams who lost in the Conference Championship Game are 21-3 against the spread in their first PlayOff game the next season when facing an opponent off a double digit win.

Teams who are also playing consecutive road games in the PlayOffs are just 3-9 against the spread in the last twelve in that spot and I think Aaron Rodgers will make enough plays to win the game and cover the mark.

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Pick: There are some quality Divisional Round games in the NFL PlayOffs this weekend, but there is an argument to be made that this may be the best of the lot.

Both the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens have played really well in the 2020 season and I really don't think either will feel inferior to the other. That isn't always the case with teams even at this stage of the PlayOffs and I really do think the game could go down to the wire as both of their Super Wild Card Round games went last week.

The weather conditions may be the biggest factor of all with cold and potential snow around, conditions which have already worried Lamar Jackson who is simply not used to running on fields that have been affected like they could be in Buffalo on Saturday. At the end of the day there is nothing that Jackson can do about the weather and the key for the Ravens is making sure they can play their game as confidently as they can.

There is no doubt that Baltimore want to play a certain way Offensively and that is largely running the ball and having dual-threat Quarter Back Lamar Jackson keeping teams guessing with what he is going to do whenever he drops back. It was Jackson's legs which helped the Ravens see off the Tennessee Titans in the Super Wild Card Round Weekend, but only big plays from the Defensive unit covered up some of the Offensive difficulties.

If Jackson and company had some problems scoring against Tennessee, they are going to have a much more difficult time against the ever improving Buffalo Bills. Earlier in the season the Bills Defensive unit struggled, but they are improving at all levels and Sean McDermott is a Defensive minded Head Coach who will believe he can limit this Ravens Offense.

When the Ravens won here last season, they only managed a total of 257 Offensive yards so McDermott will be confidence in the schemes his team can put together here. Having a tough field underfoot will only aid Buffalo's Defensive Line who have still struggled to really clamp down on the run as well as they would have liked, but I also believe they will be looking to make sure Baltimore have to try and beat them through the air in this game.

Lamar Jackson doesn't have the best Receiving corps, but there is enough talent here to believe he can have some successes throwing the ball down the field. I would expect the Quarter Back to have some time to make his throws and I do think the likes of Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown will be able to get open for him, although Jackson will find things much more difficult if he is stuck in third and long.

I do think Baltimore will have their Offensive successes, but it is also difficult to see them having consistent success considering how they have played in recent weeks. Add the tough conditions which don't really suit the Ravens and the Defensive mind they are facing, Baltimore will need their own Defensive unit to step up and try and slow what has been a very productive Buffalo Offense.

The last meeting between Buffalo and Baltimore saw the Ravens leave here with a seven point win, but Josh Allen had an awful game. He has come on leaps and bounds in 2020 barring a small run where the Quarter Back had struggled, and Buffalo have really aided Allen by providing him with some big time Receiving threats.

I would not get that carried away by Baltimore's recent performances in the Secondary because they have not played a team with the kind of passing capabilities as the Buffalo Bills. Even last week they faced a Tennessee team which likes to run first and hope that opens up the passing lanes, and there was a real opportunity for Ryan Tannehill to make some plays late on which may have turned that game in the favour of the Titans.

Simply put I am not sure Josh Allen will allow those same opportunities to pass him by with Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley and Dawson Knox all capable of having big games. That is not even counting Gabriel Davis who has played well as a rookie Receiver and I do think Allen is going to erase memories of the last time he faced the Ravens when he had just 105 passing yards.

Josh Allen is also capable with his legs, but he will predominantly be leaning on Devin Singletary now that Zack Moss has been lost for the season. At least Singletary will be fresh having split carries all season and he has shown he is capable of being the clear number one at Running Back so I do think the Bills will have decent balance Offensively which may give them the edge in what feels like a very competitive game.

I have a lot of respect for both of these teams and I do think it is going to be incredibly tense right down to the final pass.

However I do like the way Josh Allen has grown into his role at Buffalo and I do think Lamar Jackson may have one or two issues with the conditions expected as they are.

Lamar Jackson has led Baltimore to a 7-1 record against the spread in the last eight games as the road underdog which is not easy to ignore, while the Ravens are considerably more experienced with the post-season than the Buffalo Bills.

However the Buffalo Bills are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight as the home favourite, while I have already mentioned the trend that teams on consecutive road games in the PlayOffs are 3-9 against the spread in the last twelve in that spot.

I did think there were one or two nerves shown by the Buffalo Bills in their win over the Indianapolis Colts on Super Wild Card Round Weekend, but that may have been down to the inexperience. Coming through that game was very important to the development of the Bills and I think Josh Allen outplays Lamar Jackson at key times to help his team reach the AFC Championship Game, one they could host if the Cleveland Browns earn another upset on Sunday.

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The Wild Card Round lived up to its billing with one of the wildest First Quarters you will see in the PlayOffs being produced in the final game of the weekend. The Cleveland Browns found themselves 28-0 in front of the Pittsburgh Steelers thanks to some monumental mistakes from their hosts and they eventually held on for the victory and a place in the Divisional Round.

The Covid-19 issues and the absence of the Head Coach looked like it would be too much for the Cleveland Browns to overcome, but they took full advantage of the unimpressive start made by the Steelers. There has to be a concern with the amount of success Ben Roethlisberger did have when throwing the ball though and that is especially the case as the Browns prepare to take on the AFC Number 1 Seed and defending Super Bowl Champions.

A well rested Kansas City Chiefs team will be very difficult to stop, especially at Arrowhead Stadium, but the Cleveland Browns have to focus on themselves and do what they do best when they have the ball.

Namely that is run the ball, score Touchdowns instead of settling for Field Goals and try and keep Patrick Mahomes and the powerful Kansas City Chiefs Offense on the sidelines for as long as possible.

A strong Cleveland Offensive Line is going to be the key for the Browns if they want to be competitive against what many will consider to be the team to beat in the post-season. The Browns have seen that Offensive Line open up some big holes for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt and it may have been lost in the overall performance and result as to how well the Line played against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week.

I did mention in the break down of that game that the Steelers had shown vulnerability on the Defensive Line, but it is also an issue for the Kansas City Chiefs who have given up some big plays on the ground throughout the season. As long as this game is competitive, I would expect Cleveland to be able to keep the Offense in front of the chains by running the ball with Chubb and Hunt and both could also be key performers in the passing game as Cleveland look for some balance on this side of the ball.

Baker Mayfield played a largely strong game last week at Quarter Back and he will be feeling pretty good about his chances in this game too. There are some question marks about Mayfield and his accuracy and temperament at times, but I do think he has found a decent rhythm and should be given the time he needs to survey the field and look to attack this Chiefs Secondary.

He will have to be accurate when he does throw the ball down the field because the Chiefs thrive on picking up mistakes, but there are holes in the Secondary that can be exploited too. Odell Beckham Jr has missed much of the season, but his absence has not prevented Baker Mayfield being able to make plays down the field with the likes of Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper becoming more important in each passing week.

The Browns should be able to move the ball, but the bigger factor in this game is whether they can stall Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs for long enough to potentially secure the upset. The Chiefs will be well rested having been the only team in the AFC with a Bye through the Super Wild Card Round, but it hasn't meant a return to the full complement of their starting Offensive Line and that may be a potential issue for the big favourites.

I really do focus on Mahomes because I think the Quarter Back is going to have to make the plays with his arm if Kansas City are going to win this game. They have lost Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le'Veon Bell has proven to not be as effective a runner between the Tackles, although he is a threat in the passing game as we saw in his time with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Even if Bell had been playing better than we have seen, Kansas City's Offensive Line won't be able to blast holes through the Cleveland Defensive Line who have been able to clamp down on the run in recent games. Of course they might leave some more spaces up front as they drop men into coverage to slow Patrick Mahomes, although the injury report seems to be leaning towards the Browns having key Corners returning after missing some time.

That may give Cleveland more belief in their Secondary without the extra players dropping in, but even then this is a Kansas City team with a host of top Receiving threats that are likely going to have the edge in the game. Patrick Mahomes may have a bit more pressure around him with the issues on the Offensive Line, but not enough to believe the Quarter Back is not going to have another big post-season outing as he did when leading the Kansas City Chiefs to the Super Bowl twelve months ago.

It is a threat that demands massive respect even if the spread looks a very big one in this game and raises some doubts, but I do think Cleveland are being given too many points here.

While I have gone with the trend that sees teams on back to back road games struggling in the second of those games in the PlayOffs, Cleveland are also off an upset win in the Wild Card Round and those teams have really found it difficult when it comes to backing up the performance in the Divisional Round.

Double digit favourites have a 6-1 record against the spread in the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs over the last eleven years, and Andy Reid is coming off a Bye week when he usually is able to Coach his players to successes.

That all goes against Cleveland, but I do think this has the makings of a closer game than expected and this is a lot of points to be getting in the PlayOffs. Teams who have won eleven games in the regular season are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine PlayOff games when set as the double digit underdog and the Browns have to use the layers as motivation with a 'no one believes in us' mantra to drive them forward.

Baker Mayfield has a poor record as a double digit underdog, but Patrick Mahomes is only 5-7 against the spread when being asked to cover at least 10 points. His PlayOff performances from last season are intimidating and hard to oppose, but Cleveland do look to match up well with Kansas City as long as they don't overthink things.

The Chiefs have not covered the spread in their last four home games in the regular season and they did find themselves in tough positions in the PlayOff games last season before fighting back and destroying Houston and Tennessee. That would be a fear in this one, but I think the Browns will be able to lean on their running game and have Mayfield make enough big throws to stay with the Number 1 Seed.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: When Tom Brady decided he would move to the NFC South with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers it felt inevitable that we would see his team facing off against rivals the New Orleans Saints in the PlayOffs. This is the game with two former Super Bowl Champion Quarter Backs, and two future Hall of Famers at the position, facing each other for the right to play in the NFC Championship Game next week and I do think it is the game that will be bringing in the most eyes to the NFL on Divisional Round Weekend.

No one will doubt what Brady and Drew Brees have achieved, but I do think the latter will only really be happy moving into what looks like a retirement if he can get his hands on the Vince Lombardi Trophy for a second time. Most are expecting Brees to hang his helmet up for the last time at the end of this season regardless of how it finishes up, but he is playing well enough and has a bunch of talented, healthy team mates who will think the Saints deserve their spot back in the Super Bowl having been undone by a number of ill-timed plays over the last few years.

The Saints were comfortable winners on Super Wild Card Weekend and they have the mental advantage of not only hosting this Divisional Round game, but they have also swept the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the regular season. And while the Buccaneers were able to see off the Washington Football Team last week, most will accept it was a much closer game than they anticipated and there are some question marks about the health of some of the key players on the roster.

Casual fans will be looking out for how Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Ronald Jones have all been limited in practice this week, although it would be a surprise if the two Receivers are missing. Jones is already considered a game-time decision, but it does sound like Tom Brady will have his full complement of passing options.

However bigger news may be the injury on the Offensive Line which sees Alex Cappa missing and it is something that will concern Brady. In the past we have seen the teams who have had the most success against Tom Brady have been those who can get into his face without having to blitz, and New Orleans will certainly fit that bill and even more so with an Offensive Linemen missing for the Buccaneers.

The Saints should be able to bring the pass rush because the Defensive Line have remained very strong when it comes to playing the run and they should be able to keep Tampa Bay in awkward passing downs and distance. That will allow this Line to get after Tom Brady who may have to target Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin out of the slot as Mike Evans has regularly struggled to deal with the Saints coverage in his career and is banged up.

I find it very difficult to believe Tom Brady is not going to have some success in this game, but his performances against the Saints this season have to be a slight concern. While the Buccaneers are averaging almost 300 passing yards per game through the season, they have been held to 224 yards and 186 yards through the air against the New Orleans Saints and even the arrival of Antonio Brown is unlikely to really burst those numbers open.

Sean Payton will believe the Defensive side of the ball can look after themselves, but he will be looking for his own Offense to kick on and pick up from where Washington left off last week. Devin White is back for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and that cannot be underestimated, but the Buccaneers have been struggling Defensively down the stretch and the Football Team were able to move the ball effectively against Tampa Bay on Super Wild Card Weekend despite starting a third string Quarter Back.

Drew Brees is not a third string Quarter Back even if he does look like a player that is on the downward slope of his career. Over the course of the season the Buccaneers have played the run very well, but in recent games there have been signs of wear and tear on the Defensive Line and so Brees should be able to hand the ball off to Latavius Murray and Alvin Kamara and at least be placed in front of the chains.

I also expect this Saints team to scheme in some plays for Taysom Hill out of the Quarter Back position and so they may have more success on the ground than some may imagine. Even then, it is likely that Alvin Kamara will be a big threat sneaking out of the backfield and catching passes from Drew Brees and then producing solid yards after catch to keep the Saints moving.

A big piece of the Offense is back too and Michael Thomas looked good last week and can only be better with another week of practice under his belt. The Wide Receiver has had a difficult season with injuries, but Thomas is back at the right time and just opens up the passing lanes for the Saints with teams needing to make sure they double the top threat.

It should mean Drew Brees is able to pick up from where Taylor Heinicke left off last week and the Quarter Back was able to dissect this Defensive unit when helping the Saints crush the Buccaneers on the road in the regular season.

The veteran Quarter Back is well protected by his Offensive Line and I do think the Saints are the right play in this Divisional Round game.

Beating a team three times in the same season has regularly been seen as a difficult task, but teams have managed to do that more often than not in the PlayOffs in recent years. Those teams are 5-2 straight up in the last seven occasions we have seen the match ups occur and I do think the Saints showed they are a stronger team than the Buccaneers by a wide margin in the regular season.

It is not often you can take Tom Brady as an underdog and even rarer to see that in the PlayOffs, but the Saints do look to match up well with Tampa Bay on both sides of the ball. It should be key to the outcome and I do think the Saints are the right team to back. And make a note that Brady is 'only' 4-3 against the spread in the seven previous games he has been set as the underdog in the PlayOffs.

I am really looking forward to this game and I think it could be great viewing, but I think the New Orleans Saints will see their veteran Quarter Back make more plays than Tom Brady and it will see the home favourite win and cover.

MY PICKS: Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Cleveland Browns + 10 Points @ 1.86 William Hill (2 Units)

New Orleans Saints - 3 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2019 (January 16th)

The first couple of days at the Australian Open have been highly frustrating if truth is to be told and that is mainly because of a swing of three matches that not only could, but should have gone the other way.

All three went against me and I have yet to receive a 'lucky' winner which does happen in Slams thanks to the longer format of the men's matches. Julia Goerges, Alja Tomljanovic and Dominic Thiem threw away incredible positions though and I am hoping the move into the Second Round can begin to get things turned around.

Even then I will say that panicking over a couple of bad days in the Grand Slam tournaments is simply not worth it. It's a long two weeks and there is going to be time for things to change, but I would much prefer to be writing out Day 4 selections knowing I've had my first winning day of the 2019 Australian Open.


The Second Round is going to be played on Wednesday and Thursday and it is the bottom half of both the men's and women's draws that get to go up first. It is still the time of the tournament where the top names are trying to ease their way through the draws with as little energy expended as needed and the Second Round does seem to produce a few mismatches on the court.

However no one can take anything for granted when they head out to the courts on what is expected to be another tough day for players with the heat in Melbourne, although it may not be as sunny as it has been in the first couple of days here.


Tomas Berdych - 6.5 games v Robin Haase: One of the more impressive First Round displays came from Tomas Berdych as the veteran continues his return to the Tour with some fine results. After reaching the Final in Doha Berdych had to be feeling he could make an impact here at the Australian Open, but even he must have been surprised at the ease in which he was able to beat Kyle Edmund, a Semi Finalist from twelve months ago.

However I made the point that Edmund was perhaps not at full health a couple of days ago and I'm sure that did play a part in the way the First Round match developed. In saying that, take nothing away from the Berdych serve which was a huge weapon on the day and the Czech player is another who has enjoyed considerable success Down Under which should help the confidence too.

I would expect the Second Round match against Robin Haase to be much tougher for Berdych, although Haase is not always at his most effective on the hard courts. His own First Round win looked straight-forward enough on paper as the Dutchman was able to move through without dropping a set, but the underlying stats showed it was a much closer match than that and Haase will need to pick up his play if he is going to challenge Berdych.

Haase has a decent serve which has to be given respect especially as the Berdych return game has declined, but the former is only holding at under 80% on this surface. The Grand Slam numbers have been even worse for Haase with his hold percentage down at 73% on the hard courts and I think he might just be worn down by Berdych in this match.

Even though Berdych has reached a Final in Doha and won a match here, the return numbers certainly have some room for improvement. It might not be a real problem for him in this Second Round match but it will be something that could catch Berdych out the longer he remains in the draw and with the competition ramping up in each passing Round.

You have to respect the fact that Haase actually beat Berdych on a fast hard court in Dubai two years ago, but the conditions in Melbourne may just be more to the liking of the former top 10 player. I think it will help him produce another strong win as he perhaps pulls away from Haase over the course of three sets and I will back Tomas Berdych to make it through to the Third Round with a cover of what looks a big number on paper.


Marin Cilic - 6.5 games v MacKenzie McDonald: The First Round match against home hope Bernard Tomic looked a difficult one for Marin Cilic, but the latter is a tough cookie these days and is very comfortable playing in Melbourne. He seemed to thrive in the atmosphere and was a convincing winner over Tomic who deserves a lot of credit for actually competing even when under the cosh, something he hasn't always done throughout his career.

Tomic will be looking to build on that over the course of 2019, but Marin Cilic moves on through the draw and is looking to go one better than twelve months ago. He should really have beaten Roger Federer in the Final, but Cilic has shown he can recover from setbacks and he should be pretty happy with his performance in the First Round.

2018 proved to be a very good year for Cilic on the hard courts as he improved his returning numbers again and the serve looked strong. He will need those aspects of his game working to have success over the next two weeks, and I am expecting Cilic to impose himself on this Second Round match.

His opponent is Mackenzie McDonald, an improving youngster from the United States who had an impressive win over the talented Andrey Rublev in the First Round. This will only be the sixth hard court Grand Slam match McDonald is playing, but he has shown toughness previously with the likes of Grigor Dimitrov and Robin Haase needing five sets to beat McDonald at the Australian Open and US Open respectively in 2018.

McDonald has some decent numbers with a decent enough serve backed up by some returning numbers that are comparative to what Cilic produces. However this is a big step up for the youngster who has struggled on the returning side of things when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in his relatively new career.

If Marin Cilic serves to the standards he usually sets then it will be very difficult for McDonald to break the serve and ultimately that means more pressure to hold onto your own. Unsurprisingly Cilic's numbers to take a serious tick upwards when he is facing players outside of the top 50 of the World Rankings in recent years, and the Croatian is dominant against those opponents in Grand Slam matches on this surface.

Cilic has covered this number of games in his last five completed hard court matches against opponents outside of the top 50 in the World Rankings and I will back him to do that here.


Roger Federer - 8.5 games v Daniel Evans: When Daniel Evans and Roger Federer met at Wimbledon in 2016 the former admitted he was very nervous and in awe of playing one of the greatest players of all time. Since then Evans has been through some personal troubles which means he should be appreciating his time back on the courts more than ever and that could relax him when he faces the two time defending Champion in the Second Round.

It is less than twelve months since Evans has returned to the Tour having been banned for using recreational drugs at a time when he looked to be on an upwards curve in the World Rankings. He hasn't been given the same kind of support that Maria Sharapova did on her return to the Tour for failing a drugs test and that has meant Evans being forced to go back and scrap on the Challenger Tour.

The British player was banned just after hitting a career best Number 41 in the World Rankings and he is still outside the top 150 coming into this tournament. Qualifying with three wins and then beating another Qualifier to make the Second Round will give Evans a significant boost as he looks to make sure he can reach the main draw of Wimbledon without the need to stress himself in the Qualifiers later this year.

Evans has had some strong hard court results over the last nine months, but suffice to say those have come in matches at a much lower level than what he faces on Wednesday. The numbers in his career when playing on the main Tour are no more than average, although I have to respect the fact that Evans has somehow produced an 11-4 record in main draw Grand Slam matches on the hard courts as he seems to thrive with the competition ramped up.

It can't go to a much higher setting than this one as he faces a Roger Federer who comfortably won his First Round match while most eyes were focused on Andy Murray's match played at the same time. Federer has shown a decline in his numbers on the hard courts over the last three seasons, but they are still at an extremely high level and I don't think Evans will be able to really challenge a player going for title number 100 over the next few days.

I am a little wary in backing Federer considering he has not really had much success covering the big spreads in recent Slams on the hard courts. Federer does have a 27-3 record since January 2016 in hard court matches at the Grand Slams, but only 6 of those wins would have seen him cover this number.

Even with that in mind, Federer's serve numbers are magnificent in that time and it will come down to whether he takes his break point chances when they arrive or not. I think he will have enough opportunities to get into a position to cover the number considering Evans serve can be something of a weakness as he steps up his opponent level and I will look for Federer to just ease his way past the British player in this Second Round encounter.


Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v Matthew Ebden: At age 31 Matthew Ebden has been playing some of the best tennis of his career and he wasn't too far away from heading into his home Grand Slam as one of the Seeded players. Instead Ebden has been placed in a very difficult portion of the draw which means he is going up against World Number 2 Rafael Nadal in the Second Round.

It isn't that long ago that Ebden would have been seen as nothing more than a journeyman, but he entered the top 40 of the World Rankings for the first time at the end of the 2018 season. Over the first three months of the season Ebden has every chance of surpassing his best career Ranking and he has matched his 2018 run at the Australian Open by reaching the Second Round after beating Jan-Lennard Struff on Monday.

Now the Australian has the chance of his best ever run in his home Grand Slam as he attempts to reach the Third Round for the first time, but beating Rafael Nadal is a big ask.

The Spaniard has had some questions to answer about his overall fitness and the change in the service motion has been made because Nadal wants to get an opportunity to win points much quicker than he has in his career. That says something about where his team feel Nadal's body is, but he had no problems in a win over James Duckworth in the First Round.

No one will ever doubt that Nadal is better on the clay courts than he is on the hard courts, but his numbers on this surface are more impressive than you would imagine. Ultimately I would think Nadal comes up short against the very best players, but he is comfortable in matches like this one and I do think he will be a fairly routine winner.

These two did meet in a competitive match on the grass a few years ago, but that isn't largely relevant. What does feel more relevant is the fact that Ebden was holding serve at less than 80% of the time on the hard courts in 2018 and that is a number that is going to be challenged by Nadal who managed to break the Duckworth serve six times in the First Round.

I think Nadal will get close to that many breaks in this one too and that should see him have a chance of covering this number.


Donna Vekic - 5.5 games v Kimberly Birrell: It is hard to believe that Donna Vekic is still only 22 years old but she does look like someone who is improving again after a few lean years. She is now at a career best Ranking inside the top 30 of the World Rankings and her win in the First Round over Kristina Mladenovic means Vekic is capable of improving that World Ranking by the end of this tournament.

It was a strong win for Vekic in the First Round and has added to what has been a good start to the 2019 season. At the start of the season Vekic reached the Semi Final in Brisbane and her numbers on the hard courts have improved in each of the last three seasons which suggests this is a player on the rise.

Sometimes you can be critical of the mental strength displayed by Vekic, but in other matches against top quality opposition there looks to be a real player inside of her.

The Croatian will need to bring her positive form into this Second Round match as she deals with being a big favourite when taking on an opponent who will receive considerable home support in Kimberly Birrell.

Birrell is at a career best Ranking too, but she is still outside the top 200 although will likely see that improve at the end of the Australian Open having gotten through one Round. At 19 years old you would have hoped to see more from Birrell, but her numbers have not been very strong on the hard courts despite facing players much lower down the Rankings than she will see on Wednesday in the Second Round.

There have been some positive results for Birrell in the 2019 season, but she will need Vekic to be off her game to really have a chance. You can't deny this is a pretty big number for Vekic to cover, but she looks like an improving player on the hard courts and I think she will have every chance of wearing down the young home hope through some powerful hitting and I will back Vekic to move through to the Third Round with a good looking win.


Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games v Rebecca Peterson: There may have been some doubts as to how healthy Maria Sharapova is going into the Australian Open, but those were almost erased in her convincing win over Harriet Dart in the First Round.

Sharapova didn't drop a game in crushing the Qualifier but the matches are only going to get tougher for a player who has yet to get back to the heights she was at before the eighteen month drugs ban kicked in. The Russian has done well enough to get her Seeding back, but she is only Number 30 in the World Rankings and that is not going to sit well with someone who is expecting to be competing for Grand Slam titles.

One of the problems for Sharapova has been an inability to get more out of the serve like she once did. It used to be a big strength for her, but these days opponents don't fear the Sharapova serve and while her numbers on the hard courts remain decent, they are also nowhere near what she was producing prior to the ban.

In the Second Round Sharapova faces the talented Rebecca Peterson who was a strong winner in the First Round.

If Sharapova is not feeling her game, Peterson definitely plays well enough on the hard courts to cause problems for her. However much will depend on the Sharapova serve, because the Peterson serve is one she should be able to attack with some conviction and it is the returning of the Swedish player which really causes problems for opponents.

The numbers are less impressive when Peterson has stepped up to play opponents inside the top 50 of the World Rankings and I think that makes a difference in this Second Round match too. I do think Rebecca Peterson will make an impact in the match, but ultimately I do think she comes up short against Sharapova and I expect the former World Number 1 to win in straight sets with at least one break than Peterson in each of them.

MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 8.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson Win 3-1 @ 3.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Grigor Dimitrov Win 3-1 @ 3.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Sloane Stephens - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Petra Martic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Australian Open 2019: 11-13, - 5.20 Units (48 Units Staked, - 10.83% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (January 16-17)

This midweek is reserved for any FA Cup Third Round Replays that have to take place and that does mean the majority of Premier League clubs have the chance to get a bit of rest at the end of a very busy period of their seasons.

Not all of the top clubs have a chance to rest though with a number involved in the FA Cup Replays this week and once again you have to take team selections into consideration. Most of the managers will want to remain in the FA Cup, but the Premier League is the priority and so you have to accept that there will be changes made to the starting elevens.

How many starters are rested is much more difficult to predict, but hopefully I have a better time guessing that and making predictions than I did ten days ago.


Leicester City v Fleetwood Town Pick: There is little concern that Leicester City will be dragged back towards a relegation battle and their best likely finish in the Premier League table is 7th. That should mean Claude Puel is going to keep the fans and the owners happy by having a real shot at taking Leicester City to FA Cup success and they have been given an opportunity to reach the Fifth Round.

If Leicester City can win this Replay, they will play Peterborough United from League One in the Fourth Round and once you get to the Fifth Round they could be the team taking this competition the most seriously. While others will be back in Champions League action around then, Leicester City can play strong teams knowing this competition is the priority and I can imagine Leicester City have their backers for Cup success.

However getting past Fleetwood Town won’t be easy and Leicester City have to take this fixture seriously. They are home having drawn 0-0 at Highbury Stadium ten days ago, but Leicester City should know how tough Fleetwood Town could be.

Fleetwood Town have also thrived away from home in recent weeks with both FA Cup successes coming on their travels. The Cod Army have also conquered the last 5 teams they have played away from home in all competitions and have scored at least twice in each of those games.

That should mean a confident team arrives at the King Power Stadium, but I also think a stronger Leicester City will take to the field. Jamie Vardy should be involved against his former club who helped him achieve his move to Leicester City and I can see him making the difference along with Riyad Mahrez.

Even some changes won’t be a big problem for Leicester City who should be too strong for Fleetwood Town. I can imagine they are also able to pick off their visitors if Fleetwood Town begin to chase an equaliser and so I will back Leicester City to cover the Asian Handicap in this Replay.


West Ham United v Shrewsbury Town Pick: The FA Cup is seen as a distraction for many clubs these days, especially those in the Premier League who are either fighting for major honours or trying to avoid relegation. That is not necessarily the case for David Moyes and West Ham United who won't mind building on recent successful results with a Cup run, even if it is clear that the Premier League remains the priority at this moment in time.

Under Sam Allardyce and Slaven Bilic West Ham United enjoyed a couple of really good runs in the FA Cup including a Quarter Final in 2016 and Moyes can get the supporters firmly behind him by getting a run going this year.

He might have more reason for optimism with West Ham United producing positive results in the Premier League which is moving them up the League table, but changes will be made on Tuesday with the Bournemouth game in mind. There is still some talent in the West Ham United starting eleven with injuries making it hard to make wholesale changes, but those on the field also have to make sure they have a full respect for Shrewsbury Town.

The initial tie will have shown West Ham United that their opponents can make life difficult for them and Shrewsbury Town are playing well enough in League One to have a confidence in their own ability. The 3-1 loss at Blackburn Rovers on Saturday did snap a 10 game unbeaten run in all competitions, and I do wonder if that will have had an effect on the players belief, while the competition faced on Tuesday is considerably higher than Shrewsbury Town are used to playing.

I do feel their best chance of the upset has been missed at home and West Ham United should have too much for them here. It could be tight for a while, but West Ham United may just use their superior fitness to edge ahead and then put the finishing touches on this fixture late on as Shrewsbury Town chase a way to get back into it.


Chelsea v Norwich City Pick: It has been a tough start to the 2018 calendar year as Chelsea's squad have struggled with all of the demands being placed on them. However that can't be fully blamed for the 4 consecutive draws and 3 consecutive goalless draws they have had as Antonio Conte has managed plenty of rotation, but there has been a knock in the confidence of the players.

Usually you would imagine this is the kind of game that could help spark Chelsea, and I think they just need to find a win by any means necessary. There will be some changes made to the side when you think of the big fixtures coming up in the Premier League and League Cup Semi Final Second Leg, but Antonio Conte won't use that as an excuse as he looks for more silverware to add to the League title he helped Chelsea win last season.

With the rumours that Conte will leave Stamford Bridge at the end of the season in full flow, the manager can only quieten those voices with successes on the field. Going out of the FA Cup at Stamford Bridge just won't do and I do think Chelsea will find a way to win this one.

For all the negatives, Chelsea have continued to defend well enough and that should give them a chance to turn things around on the field. The clean sheets have been arriving consistently at home and I think they can use that in a winning effort in this one even with a few changes.

There wasn't a lot of threat from Norwich City in the initial tie at Carrow Road and the loss of Alex Pritchard won't help to make them stronger in the final third. The Canaries can be tough though and I do think they have the potential to frustrate Chelsea, but I will expect the extra quality the home team can call upon to help them past this opponent.

It wouldn't be a huge surprise if Antonio Conte picks a slightly stronger team than the one that began at Carrow Road, especially in the forward areas, and I will back Chelsea to win with a clean sheet.


Swansea City v Wolves Pick: Both managers sound like there will be some changes made to their starting eleven and that makes this a difficult Replay to try and figure out.

Neither team has been in very strong form of late, but Wolves are a tough team to beat and I like their chances as the underdog to come through this tie.

To be fair I thought they would win the initial tie at Molineux, but a first half sending off made that difficult and Wolves may have missed their best chance to go through. However they have been to the Etihad Stadium and held a strong Manchester City team in the League Cup and I just don't think Swansea City's starting eleven will be to that level.

I would be more excited about Wolves' chances if they were going to play their first team, but I still think they warrant a small interest to make it through to the next Round. This match should mean more to the runaway leaders of the Championship than it does to the Premier League strugglers and I think that may be the mindset on the evening.

Wolves have proven to be a tough to break down and I think they may nick this one on the evening and are worth a small interest as the underdog.


Wigan Athletic v Bournemouth Pick: It is funny to see the Premier League side as a significant underdog at the home of the League One leaders, but that may be much down to the fact that Bournemouth will be resting and rotating a number of players.

However Wigan Athletic are also expected to make some changes as they have stumbled a little bit in the League One promotion battle and so I am surprised Bournemouth are still an outsider.

They have seen at first hand that Wigan Athletic could be a very dangerous opponent having come from 0-2 down to earn a Replay. Wigan Athletic are also better at home where they are a little more defensively sound, although there has to be some concern that they have just had some difficulties in front of goal in their recent fixtures at The DW Stadium.

I expected goals when these teams met in the initial tie, but this time I can imagine the match may be a lot tighter. That could also be down to the changed starting line ups which may need a little time to build their chemistry and make the right attacking plays to break the other down.

Both managers are speaking about wanting to progress and so I expect two teams to battle hard for their Fourth Round spot against West Ham United. However I think the Premier League quality may just shine through as Wigan Athletic missed a big chance to earn the upset in the initial tie and that may be something they end up ruing.

Changes to the Bournemouth team means I do have some reduced enthusiasm for the price, but they are still worth a small interest to win this tie.

MY PICKS: Leicester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
West Ham United - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.07 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea Win to Nil @ 1.86 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Wolves @ 3.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Bournemouth @ 3.20 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Australian Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2018 (January 16th)

The one issue with the Australian Open for us in the United Kingdom is that the majority of matches are played while we get out beauty sleep, especially during the weekday when working days are ahead of us.

I do love the Australian Open, but that is a reason it is my fourth favourite Slam simply because a lot of the matches I see are highlights rather than having the chance to watch it live.

It also means these posts are mainly focusing on the tennis picks from the day with news of how the 'previous' day has gone actually coming a couple of days after the event.

I will have a chance to keep the totals updated by the time I post the threads as the matches should all be completed by then.

On Day 2 we will the completion of the First Round matches with the bottom half of the men's draw and the top half of the women's draw getting going.

Steve Johnson - 5.5 games v Denis Kudla: At the time of writing, the American entries into the Australian Open are being decimated, but they can guarantee at least one player through to the Second Round of the men's draw. The big favourite to progress is Steve Johnson who has dominated Denis Kudla when they met early in their careers, but Johnson has not been in the best form in recent months.

While Kudla had not been pulling up too many trees himself, he is a player who has won three Qualifiers to get into the main draw and that has to give him a boost in confidence.

The problem for Kudla is that everything he does is perhaps done a little better by Johnson with the one area of strength likely to be the movement around the court. However in the quicker conditions that players had been talking about in Melbourne Park I would expect Johnson's power to allow him to hit through the court and wear down Kudla.

Johnson also should have a big advantage when it comes to the serve and that should mean he is in a strong position to get past his compatriot in this one. An issue with covering this number of games is the limited return game that Johnson has, but he should be able to get his teeth into the Kudla service games when he does see a few second serves and I am expecting the higher Ranked American to come through in straight sets.

Something like a 6-3, 7-6, 6-4 win for Johnson looks the way this match will develop and it won't always be easy for him with Kudla able to work hard and force Johnson to hit one more ball. However I think Kudla's own serve may cause problems and I like Johnson to come through and cover.


Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v Donald Young: There are so many questions to answer for Novak Djokovic on his return to the Tour after deciding to end his 2017 following an injury withdrawal at Wimbledon last July. The elbow injury is one that Djokovic had said he had been dealing with for some time, but he does believe he is coming in healthy and ready to compete at a tournament he has enjoyed in his career.

However the questions linger after Djokovic decided to miss the event he had entered in Doha to open the 2018 season. Since then he has played an exhibition match against an ill Dominic Thiem and also participated in Tie Break Tens in Melbourne last week, but we won't really know how the former World Number 1 is feeling until he begins his event here on Tuesday.

Dropping down the World Rankings has meant Djokovic has been given a tough draw if he wants to replicate what Roger Federer did twelve months ago off a long lay off of his own.

In saying that, I think Djokovic will be comfortable with the First Round match against Donald Young who can play some spectacular tennis but who can also produce some real dross. He will give Djokovic a rhythm to build into the match and it is Djokovic who has dominated their two previous matches including in Eastbourne last year just days before he was going to call time on the 2017 season.

Young has had a tough start to 2018 with a disappointing loss to Joao Sousa in Auckland last week. That comes after a pretty disappointing second half of the 2017 season and I think the Young serve is one that can be attacked with joy by Djokovic.

Covering the number won't be easy if Djokovic is not feeling at 100%, but I think he will work his way into this match and begin to pull away from Young. The Djokovic serve will likely give Young a few chances to break, but I do think he can play the bigger points better than the American and that should lead to the margins on the scoreboard getting wider after each passing set.

There is a chance Young may even take a set, but I think Djokovic will produce at least a 6-3 and a 6-2 set which should mean he has the opportunities to cover this number.


Daniil Medvedev v Thanasi Kokkinakis: There are two young stars in Australian men's tennis and I thought Thanasi Kokkinakis would perhaps get a little further than Nick Kyrgios as I believe Kokkinakis is a little stronger mentally. Injuries have stunted his growth on the Tour, but the 21 year old is back to full health now and looking forward to a strong 2018.

The fans will be excited to see Kokkinakis at his home Grand Slam, but I am still surprised he is favoured to beat Daniil Medvedev, another of the young talents on the Tour who are beginning to make a name for themselves.

Medvedev has opened 2018 with a title win in Sydney and he showed plenty of confidence throughout the week having come through the Qualifiers before blazing a path through the main draw. There is a question about the amount of tennis he had to play last week to win that title in Sydney, but confidence won't be a problem for the Russian who has plenty of power in his game.

I would give the edge to Kokkinakis behind serve, but Medvedev beat the Australian twice on the grass courts last season while really getting a hold of the serve. Some of that may have been down to Kokkinakis not being at full health as he had recently returned from an injury lay off, but Medvedev will come into this First Round match with plenty of belief that he can get the better of his opponent.

It would be a surprise if either player falls apart in a straight sets win and I would not be massively surprised if a deciding set is needed to decide who makes it through to the Second Round. I just had Medvedev down as the favourite here and he could be value to 'upset' Kokkinakis as the slight underdog.


Dominic Thiem-Guido Pella over 36.5 games: It looks like Dominic Thiem is over an illness which meant he had to pull out of his Semi Final in Doha to open 2018 and there will be plenty of people who will back the Austrian for a deep run at the Australian Open. There is so much to like about the Thiem game, especially early in the season when he hasn't killed himself with poor scheduling, although he is in for a test in the First Round against Guido Pella.

The Argentinian player had a good week in Doha himself to open the 2018 season and was a narrow loser to Andrey Rublev in the Semi Final.

Pella is a lefty which could cause some problems, but I do think the majority of the match will be dominated by Thiem whose backhand should be comfortable rallying into the Pella forehand. I also think Thiem is the superior server which should show up on the hard courts at Melbourne Park, but there are a couple of doubts around the top ten player.

One is the fitness, although I have already said I expect Thiem is very much over the illness he had earlier in the month. The second is that Thiem has lost both previous matches against Pella including one on the hard courts a few months ago in Chengdu.

On that day it was Pella who won the serving day, but that match also took place in the second half of the season when Thiem is not as good after the schedule he plays early in the season. However it does suggest Pella can come in and cause some problems for Thiem even if he is not able to earn the upset and I can see this match going at least four sets.

A couple of those sets should be tight ones that get close to the tiebreaker and I think the two players can combine to surpass this total number of games. Ultimately I think Thiem will win the match, but Pella is more than capable of taking one or two sets himself and I will look for a competitive match to provide at least thirty-seven games.


Tomas Berdych-Alex De Minaur over 37.5 games: Over the last couple of years there has been a clear decline in the Tomas Berdych game and that has resulted in plenty of upsets as the layers try to catch up. There is still enough in Berdych to produce some big runs when he does get some momentum behind him, but I think the prices for this First Round match suggests the layers are beginning to understand that the 32 year old is not the player he once was.

There will be plenty of people tipping up the upset when Berdych faces another home hope in Alex De Minaur who is part of a new generation of men's players in Australia.

De Minaur has given plenty of encouragement that he is ready to take the next step in his career having produced some strong results in Brisbane and Sydney in preparation for this tournament. The youngster was a Semi Finalist in Brisbane and then a Runner Up in Sydney and wins over the likes of Milos Raonic, Feliciano Lopez and Fernando Verdasco will have given De Minaur the belief to have a strong Australian Open.

His opponent had a poor showing in Doha when Berdych was upset by Jan-Lennard Struff and I think this is going to be a very exciting match. There is every chance that De Minaur can earn the upset, but I don't think Berdych will go away easily and this has all the makings of a four or five set match going late into the evening at Melbourne Park.

Both players will be looking to dominate behind the serve and I do think both will also have a little difficulty getting their returns going to the level they would desire. That does make me believe we are going to see three really competitive sets and barring a straight sets win for either, which would be a surprise to me, I think these two players will help surpass the total games line.

Watch out for a couple of key tiebreakers in the middle of this match and look for both Berdych and De Minaur to have their successes during the course of the battle.


Roger Federer - 8.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: He may have won two Grand Slam titles last season, including at the Australian Open, but Roger Federer is still 'shocked' that he is the favourite going into the 2018 edition of the tournament at 36 years old. It does say a lot about how well Federer played in 2017, while he has been looking very good at the Hopman Cup in his only appearances in 2018 and Federer is definitely the player to beat this week as far as I am concerned.

He gets to open the defence of his title against Aljaz Bedene who is back to representing Slovenia having spent a few years under the Great British banner.

Bedene is a tough competitor, but his game should be one that Federer enjoys and there isn't a lot of form that the Slovenian is bringing into this match. He has taken early losses in his two appearances in 2018 and I do think the Bedene style will mesh perfectly for Federer and allow the World Number 2 to ease his way into the tournament.

The break point chances should be dominated by Federer and that will give him every chance of covering a big spread in this First Round match. I do want to note that Federer may have won two Grand Slams last season, but he didn't blow away opponents as his return game can still be a little loose with the break point conversion rate not always the best.

If he allows Bedene to get comfortable in saving break points then this will be a closer match than I would expect, although Federer should always be comfortable enough to win in straight sets. The form displayed in Perth suggests Federer is feeling very good about his game at the moment and I think he is healthier than he was going into Melbourne Park twelve months ago.

While a big number as I have said, Federer is capable of producing a couple of sets with a double break of serve and I can see him progressing with a 6-3, 6-3, 6-2 kind of win as he lays down a marker for the tournament. Bedene should be respected as he is rarely blown off the court, but in recent years he has twice played a player Ranked in the top two at a Grand Slam and both times he was beaten by a nine game margin.

Those did come against Novak Djokovic in Melbourne and New York City, but Federer is playing at the kind of level where he can match that here.


Naomi Osaka - 4.5 games v Kristina Kucova: Both Williams sisters are now missing in the Australian Open draw, but Naomi Osaka has admitted that she has regularly been stopped with people confusing her and Serena Williams. She will be hoping to make a bigger name for herself at the Australian Open which is essentially a home Slam for the Japanese youngster with the bright future.

There is much to like about the 20 year old and the game she brings to the court. Power is never going to be an issue for Osaka, but she will be the first to admit she needs to put together more consistency if she wants to fulfil the potential so many believe she has.

Osaka will get an opportunity to make a strong start at the tournament with a First Round match against Kristina Kucova who has slipped outside the top 200 in the World Rankings. Kucova made her return to the Tour at Sydney last week where she failed to Qualify for the main draw and this is a tough match for her against a big hitting opponent.

Kucova also had a miserable 2017 which was hurt by injuries and a loss of form and has contributed to the slip in the World Ranking. That lack of confidence could hurt her chances of earning the upset in this First Round match and I think the power Osaka will bring to the court will allow her to get on the front foot in most rallies barring unforced errors dominating her game.

It was the first serve and a powerful return game which helped Osaka beat Kucova comfortably when they met in Miami last year. I can see those numbers being similar in this one as Osaka is able to move through to the Second Round with a cover of this number of games.


Heather Watson - 2.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: Over recent years it has usually been a really good idea to oppose Heather Watson when she is favoured to win a Grand Slam match. Whether that is outright or on the spread was neither here nor there as Watson has really struggled for consistency and she is some way behind the likes of Johanna Konta when it comes to British tennis.

However I am making a rare decision to actually back the British player in the First Round when she takes on Yulia Putintseva, although the latter has to be afforded plenty of respect. Putintseva is a ferocious competitor and she will look to bully Watson from her game plan, although it does have to be said that her serve is a real weakness and has to be exploited by the lower Ranked player.

The World Ranking doesn't mean anything to the layers with Watson favoured after a really good run in Hobart last week where she Qualified for the main draw and then reached the Semi Final before Elise Mertens proved to be too good. Watson has struggled to back up big weeks though, which is a concern, but she has plenty more wins than Putintseva who has had two early exits in 2018.

Much of this match is going to be on Putintseva's racquet with the aggressive style, but Watson has to make sure she is hitting through the court when she gets her chances. The Watson first serve is the better of the two and she has to make sure she stays on the front foot when she does get that delivery into play, while also not getting too frustrated by a very strong mover.

Watson's own movement is strong too and I can see this match having some really long, gruelling rallies in hot conditions which can be tough. However I do think Watson is capable of winning this match in three sets thanks to the slightly superior serving she can produce and I will look for her to cover this number in a win to move through to the Second Round.


Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 games v Aryna Sabalenka: It has been a remarkable twelve months for Ashleigh Barty who decided to make her return to tennis after switching sports to cricket for a while. Performances have been good enough to move her into the top 20 of the World Rankings and the home fans at the Australian Open will believe Barty can go deep in the draw here.

That is partly down to a strong week in Sydney where Barty reached the Final before losing in three sets to the in form Angelique Kerber and the Australian is certainly a capable player against anyone on the Tour. Consistency has been the key word for many in the women's draw and so it won't be a surprise if someone comes out of left field and reaches the Final and Barty has the game to do that.

She should be too good for First Round opponent Aryna Sabalenka, but much will depend on how well Barty can handle the pressure that will be on her shoulders. Last year no one would have expected much from Barty during her run to the Third Round, but this time around she comes in as the main Australian hope in the women's draw.

Sabalenka has to be respected having won back to back matches in both Shenzhen and Hobart, but she did find the better players she met far too good in both tournaments. I think Sabalenka will have a few chances against the Barty serve, but she has to make sure she is keeping her opponent off balance if she wants to earn the upset.

The Belarusian can also produce some pop off the serve and the ground and that makes her potentially dangerous. However I think Barty's game is in good shape at the moment and she can win the big points in this one to help her move through to the Second Round with a 6-4, 6-3 win with Sabalenka perhaps making too many unforced errors over the course of an hour and a bit out on court.

MY PICKS: Steve Johnson - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem-Guido Pella Over 36.5 Total Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych-Alex De Minaur Over 37.5 Total Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 8.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Heather Watson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 5-4, + 1.24 Units (18 Units Staked, + 6.88% Yield)