NFL Playoff Picks 2026- Divisional Round (Saturday 17th January-Sunday 18th January)

If you wanted to sum up how this season has seemed to go for the NFL Picks, seeing the late drama in a number of the Wild Card Games all working against the selections summed it up.

As a fan you couldn't help but be excited not only by what we were watching, but what kind of drama that may still await with the final eight teams now set.

However, for the selections, seeing the Rams and Packers blow big leads on their way to non-covers or outright defeats and then followed by the Jacksonville Jaguars losing deep in the Fourth Quarter and the Eagles somehow failing to win their own games on Sunday, it all added up to another bitter blow in what has been a poor season for the selections.

At this point, I would be happy to see more quality games and there is no doubt that picking a winner remains incredibly difficult.

The Buffalo win in Jacksonville is huge, but they have to play a well rested Number 1 Seed on the road, while the Seattle Seahawks look well balanced, although who would trust Sam Darnold in a really big moment?

Out of all the teams remaining, the Los Angeles Rams look best on both sides of the ball, but a road game in Chicago in January is always going to bring its challenges.

New England's win over the Los Angeles Chargers was a solid one, but Drake Maye will need to be better and the Patriots continue to look like a team that is overachieving thanks largely to the schedule that has been given to them.

As for the others, there are plenty of plusses and minuses around them and this really feels like a small window for many of those teams as far as Super Bowl success is concerned with a stronger looking field expected to be involved in twelve months time.

Over the next couple of days, the Divisional Round of the Playoffs will be completed and that means there are now just seven games left in the 2025 season.

The Picks from the four games to be played can be read below, although it has been the kind of season when picking the other side might make sense for readers.

Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos Pick: You could make a reasonable argument to say the winner of this AFC Divisional Round Game will be the favourite to reach the Super Bowl.

The Buffalo Bills (13-5) would have to sweep their way through two more road games, but you would likely set them as favourite against either New England or Houston even in that spot. First they have to beat the Number 1 Seed in the AFC, although the well rested Denver Broncos (14-3) will feel they have something to prove having been completely crushed by the Bills in the post-season twelve months ago.

With the spread as short as it is, the Broncos will be taking plenty of motivation from the lines from Vegas too.

Coming into this Divisional Round after a Bye Week has to be a bonus and you also cannot ignore how well Sean Payton has prepared his team with rest. This is also a relatively short week for the Buffalo Bills who were winning on Sunday in the Wild Card Round, and that is something the Broncos have to make count.

However, there are questions to answer for the Number 1 Seed and most are in relation to the Offensive problems they have had for much of the season. The Broncos have found a way to win games, which cannot be dismissed, but Bo Nix and company have been erratic to say the least and Sean Payton was not very happy with the Week 18 efforts from his players on this side of the ball.

Earlier this season, the Broncos Offensive Line were really powering things, but that has not been the case in recent games. JK Dobbins has been a miss and is set to be absent on Saturday, even as he continues his rehab on the field, while too many mistakes have been committed by the Linemen which has kept the Broncos behind the chains.

Running the ball against the Bills has been a successful game plan for much of the last several months, but you have to believe they are going to be looking to force Bo Nix to beat them with his arm. The Quarter Back is one who is happy to scramble for First Downs when he has needed to do that, but this Buffalo team are well aware of those kinds of players thanks to Josh Allen and so there is a belief the Bills can clamp down on the run.

Trevor Lawrence did show what can be achieved by throwing 200 yards and adding 31 rushing yards so there is some encouragement for Box Nix, although he has to hope the Broncos can keep him in front of the down and distance.

We have seen Bo Nix produce some very good looking numbers from the Quarter Back position, but the last couple of starts have not been amongst those. This Bills Secondary has played well over the course of the season and there will be a feeling in Buffalo that they match up well with the Broncos on this side of the ball, which has to offer plenty of encouragement to the team.

The Bills also have Josh Allen.

Despite multiple injuries, Josh Allen willed the Bills to a victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars as looks to make sure the absence of the likes of the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens is not a missed opportunity for his team. The Quarter Back is going to put it all on the line, but he has unfortunately lost a couple more Receivers and that leaves Buffalo stretched, which makes things that much tougher against an elite Defensive unit like the one Denver have.

Like the opposition, Denver have to feel they know how to play a mobile Quarter Back pretty effectively and they will not want Allen to beat them with his legs.

James Cook can have some success running the ball and there is a suggestion that the slight edge at the Line of Scrimmage is with the Buffalo Offensive Line rather than the Denver Defensive Line. This is going to be the key to the outcome of the game with the Bills looking to keep the team in front of the chains and somewhat negate the powerful pass rush the Broncos bring onto the field.

Any time Josh Allen and company are behind the chains, you have to feel the Denver pass rush will have a big impact on the game and especially with Buffalo being down multiple Receivers. There are still those that can make plays, but this is a productive Denver Secondary and quicker throws may be the best way to move the chains.

The Broncos Secondary ended the season looking very comfortable, but Josh Allen is a special Quarter Back and that is what may give the road team a narrow edge.

Turnovers are going to be absolutely crucial to the final outcome and this looks a game that will come down to the wire.

Number 1 Seeds have tended to struggle in this spot when facing a 6 or 7 Seed, while those teams who earned wins on the road in the Wild Card Round have a strong covering record in the Divisional Round.

Effectively this is a game that is set as a pick 'em and hosts have tended to find a way through to the Championship Round, albeit not necessarily with a very good covering record. The outright winner is likely to cover either way and the narrow edge has to be with the superior Quarter Back, while the Bills look like they match up pretty well with this Denver team.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: A Bye was earned by beating the San Francisco 49ers (13-5) in Week 18 of the regular season, but the Number 1 NFC Seed Seattle Seahawks (14-3) have suffered a scare.

On Thursday, it was announced that Sam Darnold had been placed on the injury report and considered Questionable to start this Divisional Round Game, although the Quarter Back has downplayed suggestions that he would not suit up.

Two regular season games were split by these NFC West rivals, although the second one was the most important with the Seahawks beating the 49ers on the road and securing the top Seed. However, San Francisco can take confidence from the win in Seattle back in Week 1, while there will be little sympathy for an injury suffered by the hosts considering what the 49ers have been through in the campaign.

Another one was suffered last week in the Wild Card upset of the Philadelphia Eagles- George Kittle is out for the rest of the Playoff run, while Fred Warner is not going to be ready to suit up this week as he was hoping.

Brock Purdy found enough connections with his makeshift Receivers to earn passage past the Philadelphia Eagles, but now has to lead the San Francisco 49ers to find a way to move the ball against a very good Seattle Defensive unit. Just two weeks ago, San Francisco had fewer than 200 Offensive yards against Seattle, although the return of Trent Williams is a big boost for the Offensive Line.

Trent Williams is not at 100%, but it may help in the run blocking against a stubborn Seattle Defensive Line.

Getting anything from Christian McCaffrey on the ground would be considered a boost for the San Francisco Offense, although it is clear that the Running Back is going to be most effective as a catcher coming out of the backfield.

There has to be a huge amount of respect for how the Seahawks have played on the Defensive side of the ball, but Kyle Shanahan will have used the short week to at least find some ways to get his team to move the chains.

The short week is far from ideal- the 49ers are also coming off a game on the East Coast, but they will feel they can have a little more success than they produced in the Week 18 defeat.

Importantly the San Francisco 49ers look capable of keeping this one close on the scoreboard with the way they match up with the Seahawks on the other side of the ball.

If Sam Darnold is limited, that will certainly help, while an appearance from Drew Lock would certainly tighten the margins.

Everything that is happening in the Quarter Back room should only have strengthened the approach that the Seahawks will take to the game- they are going to pound the rock over and over again against a 49ers Defensive Line that has been worn down by injuries and who continue to allow teams to have considerable success on the ground.

Two weeks ago, Seattle had 180 rushing yards against the 49ers and they will be looking to pick up from where they left off and just keep the pressure on this NFC West rival.

That should keep the pressure from the Quarter Back, regardless of who it may be, and gives the Seahawks the edge in the straight up market, but perhaps not the spread.

A strong Head Coach like Kyle Shanahan will have new looks for the Seahawks and San Francisco may only need 13 points to earn a cover.

For all of the problems San Francisco have had, they only allowed 13 points in the Week 18 loss and they allowed the same number when they met in Week 1.

Brock Purdy is expected to be better with Trent Williams on the Offensive Line and road teams are 4-2 against the spread when facing Divisional rivals in this Round of the Playoffs.

Road underdogs of between 3.5 and 9.5 points are also 29-17-1 against the spread in the Divisional Round of the post-season.

Number 1 Seeds have had poor records covering in recent years in the Divisional Round, as already mentioned, and the San Francisco 49ers are strong enough to keep this one competitive, even in a losing effort.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots Pick: Two of the top Defensive units in the NFL meet in this Divisional Round Game on Sunday when the New England Patriots (15-3) host the Houston Texans (13-5).

They were both set as relatively narrow favourites in the Wild Card Round, but both the Patriots and Texans dominated behind these Defensive units.

However, it is Houston who have drawn the short straw by having to play on Monday Night Football in the Wild Card Round and that means having to compete on the road on a short week.

Much is going to depend on the Houston Defensive unit and they will take a huge amount of encouragement from the Drake Maye struggles against a more than competent Los Angeles Defense last week. The Texans will feel they have an even better unit than the Chargers and will be looking to confuse the young Quarter Back.

Running the ball is going to be the first target for the New England Patriots and they have had success doing that behind this Offensive Line, although rarely going up against a unit like this Houston Defensive Line. This battle at the Line of Scrimmage is going to be important in cold conditions and the Patriots will be keen to place Drake Maye in positive yardage situations, while also being able to slow down the fierce Houston pass rush.

There will be opportunities for Maye and the New England passing game if they are able to stay in third and manageable spots, although nothing is going to come easy in these conditions.

It will be tough for the hosts, but it is also going to be hugely challenging for the road team who are used to much warmer conditions than they are likely to find in Foxboro.

One of the big criticisms of the Houston Texans has been the performance of the Offensive unit and there is pressure on them to find enough points to help out the Defense.

The Texans will be looking to do the same as the Patriots and that is establish the run, but the Offensive Line have not played at the same level as the one New England will run out on the field. So while the Patriots will have belief in what they can do at the Line of Scrimmage, it may be tougher for the Houston Texans against a Patriots Defensive Line that have clamped down on the run.

CJ Stroud may be able to move around to clear away from the pass rush pressure, which can be something to slow this New England rush, but he is also going to be severely challenged when it comes to throwing against this Secondary.

Not only does it look like Christian Gonzalez is going to suit up for New England, but Houston are set to be without Nico Collins who is the big target for Stroud and that could make things very difficult.

The Fumbles in Pittsburgh were not punished and the Quarter Back is going to have to be close to his best if he is going to lead the Texans to a second consecutive road win.

There is a positive history for those teams chasing second road wins in succession in the Divisional Round, while it has been noted that hosts have been good at winning, but not necessarily covering.

However, the slight edge has to be with the New England Patriots to be able to do enough, as they did in the Wild Card Round, and the feeling is that Drake Maye can out-perform CJ Stroud in a game that could come down to the passing game.

Turnovers could change the entire momentum of this game, which is going to be close, but the New England Patriots can cover even in a relatively low-scoring win to progress to the AFC Championship Game.

Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears Pick: If you were to suggest the most likely winner of the Super Bowl because of the balance of the team, you may point out the Los Angeles Rams (13-5) as the team to beat.

However, a couple of slips late in the season has meant the Rams have had to enter the post-season as one of the Wild Card teams and has meant having to win at least twice on the road.

Despite an injury suffered by Matthew Stafford, which had slowed down the Rams and looked to be a costly issue in the eventual win over the Carolina Panthers, Los Angeles have made it through to the Divisional Round.

Now they have to pack the bags and travel to the Chicago Bears (12-6) who produced a historic Playoff comeback to beat the Green Bay Packers last week.

As you may expect in January, it was always going to be cold in Chicago.

However, the temperatures are going to be exceptionally cold on Sunday evening when this game kicks off and there will be snow flurries too, which is going to make it very challenging for Matthew Stafford and the Rams.

The Quarter Back has huge experience of playing in cold weather having been a part of the Detroit Lions in the NFC North before heading to a warmer climate in Los Angeles. That will help Matthew Stafford prepare, mentally if nothing else, but even compared with previous standards of road games in Chicago and Green Bay, this is going to be something unique.

Some of the Rams have already been downplaying the weather, but it is a huge factor in this one.

In normal conditions or in a Dome setting, you would really like how the Rams match up with the Chicago Bears on the Offensive side of the ball.

While they will usually go as far as Matthew Stafford takes them, the Rams Offensive Line have been very productive at setting the tempo by winning at the Line of Scrimmage and putting a strong running game on the board. The likelihood is that the Los Angeles Rams will want to keep the ball on the ground at times in the conditions expected and they are expected to have success when they do that.

This Offensive Line also gives Matthew Stafford protection and he would carve up this Chicago Secondary, but again the weather is going to be a factor when it comes to throwing and catching.

After the huge comeback put together by the Bears in the Wild Card win over rivals Green Bay, Ben Johnson and the fans will have a lot of faith in Caleb Williams at Quarter Back. Some of the Bears Receivers have also stepped up and Williams plays behind an Offensive Line that will offer him some time, although the same problems with the conditions will have to be overcome.

Much like the opposite unit, the Chicago Offensive Line have been very strong this season and they have been important in opening up the running lanes for the Bears.

Recent outings have been more challenging, but the Bears will have noted the success teams have had in the last few games against this Rams Defensive Line. Keeping that powerful Offensive unit on the sidelines to really feel the cold would be a huge win for the Chicago Bears and there is every chance that they can put a game plan together to keep this one close.

Sean McVay has admitted he will be speaking to his close friend Matt LaFleur, who happens to be the Green Bay Head Coach, but ultimately this is a Head Coach with a Super Bowl Championship on the resume. You have to expect the Rams will have a good plan, even in the poor conditions, but they are a road favourite and those teams are just 1-4 against the spread in the last five Divisional Round Games in that situation.

The Rams do look like having all of the ingredients to win another Super Bowl, but having a hook over a key number 3 makes the Chicago Bears worthy of backing to avoid a blowout defeat.

MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

San Francisco 49ers + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

New England Patriots - 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Chicago Bears + 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Wild Card: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 18: 3-4, - 1.51 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.57% Yield)

Week 17: 5-6, - 1.45 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.18% Yield)

Week 16: 3-5, - 2.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.50% Yield)

Week 15: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 14: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)

Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 48-63, - 20.05 Units (111 Units Staked, - 18.06% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 6 Picks 2025 (Friday 17th January)

Learning from past mistakes is key to improving results, but the overriding feeling after the Australian Open in 2024 was that things that could go wrong had gone wrong.

Making up for the tremendously poor tournament was always going to be difficult without having a lot of luck, and so the 2024 season was a really poor one for the Tennis Picks having never recovered from January.

Perhaps the one change made for this year is going with a much stricter selection process- there have been some misses already in the first five days of the Australian Open with the likes of Naomi Osaka winning matches that were on the borderline of being selected.

Ultimately there can be no complaints about eleven winners from fifteen selections and the positive number returned through the first two Rounds of the tournament are welcomed.

However, there are still ten days left in Melbourne and so this has to be seen as a positive start, but just a start.

Third Round matches begin on Friday with the temperatures expecting to be much higher in Melbourne than they have been in the previous two days and that is going to be challenging for players.

So far the upsets have largely been avoided in both the men's and women's tournament, but Daniil Medvedev has joined Qinwen Zheng in being former Australian Open Finalists that have failed to make the Third Round.

Both will feel tremendously disappointed, but plenty of the big names are still going and looking strong.

We have not really seen all four of the top women's Seeds going well at the same Grand Slam, but all look in great shape heading into the Third Round, while the top men's names are still involved outside of Medvedev.

The lineup for the second week of the tournament will begin to be put together on Friday and there are some top Third Round matches set to head out onto the Melbourne Park courts.

Selections from the opening Third Round matches can be read below as we look to push the positive returns further forward.

Ugo Humbert-Arthur Fils over 39.5 games: The chance to play in the second week of any Grand Slam can only build the confidence of those players to reach Fourth Round of the any of the four tournaments played across the calendar year. Being able to do that in Melbourne sets the standard for a long season ahead though and both Ugo Humbert and Arthur Fils are very likely to be top 20 Ranked players when the new Rankings are released at the conclusion of the Australian Open.

Those marks means there is also an expectation around the two players to be a part of the Last 16 of any Grand Slam they play and so this is a big Third Round match between two compatriots looking to lead the next generation of French players forward.

Gael Monfils continues to defy his age, but the majority of those that made the headlines in French tennis have moved into retirement and new stars are needed, especially for a nation that hosts one of the four Slams.

After reaching the Final of the Paris Masters at the conclusion of 2024, Ugo Humbert is looking to take the next step his career over the coming eleven months. He has yet to drop a set at the Australian Open where the serve continues to be a big weapon, but Humbert will be well aware that he has not been tested having faced opponents Ranked 145 or lower.

There is no doubt that Arthur Fils will bring a test and there are arguably more expectations on his shoulders than the higher Ranked Frenchman. Part of the reason for that is Fils is still only 20 years old and is set to reach a new career high World Ranking inside the top 20 at the end of this tournament.

Inexperience has been an issue at times, but there is a lot to like about the Arthur Fils game- he can lose focus at moments, which is perhaps why he has needed four sets in each of his two wins in Melbourne, but Arthur Fils has beaten two players inside the top 100 of the World Rankings and that may make him feel he is more 'ready' to compete.

Sometimes in tennis matches between compatriots, it can be hard for the lower Ranked and younger player to deal with facing someone they have perhaps 'looked up to' as they make their own journey onto the professional Tour. So early in the careers you can see some one-sided head to head contest and that is the same for Ugo Humbert and Arthur Fils.

The older of the two Frenchmen had won four in a row against Arthur Fils, culminating in a crushing 6-2, 6-2 win on the hard courts of Canada in August 2024. However, it was Arthur Fils who snapped the losing run against Ugo Humbert by beating him for the first time in Tokyo later in 2024 and that was for the title so a big occasion to come through.

It was also the first time Arthur Fils has been able to have consistent success against the Ugo Humbert serve and he may have the edge in this Third Round match.

Even if he is to come through, the expectation is that we will see at least four sets needed to determine a winner and that may give the players enough time to play the games needed to surpass this total line set.

In a three set win in the Tokyo Final, there were 34 games played in total and both have served well enough in Melbourne through the first two Rounds to expect a competitive and perhaps long Third Round match.

Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Jacob Fearnley: Andy Murray has retired and Cameron Norrie has taken a big tumble in the World Rankings meaning the pressure is on Jack Draper to become the next big star for British tennis.

At 23 years old, Jack Draper is a top 20 Ranked player and there are big expectations being carried on his shoulders as he prepares for a Third Round match at the Australian Open.

However, the British player making the headlines is less well known.

Jacob Fearnley has taken the American College route towards the professional Tour that many others have trodden before and there will be a maturity about those players when they play on the Tour that much younger players may not necessarily have. Of course there are exceptions to every statement, but Fearnley has played some big time tennis in College, including helping TCU win the National Championship, and that experience looks to stand this British player in good stead going forward.

He is a top 100 Ranked player and is set to make a big jump in the World Rankings having upset Nick Kyrgios and Arthur Cazaux in the first couple of Rounds in Melbourne. The confidence will not be lacking, but Jacob Fearnley will also be well aware that he is facing one of the favourites to win the title in this Third Round match.

Playing on a big court is not going to be an issue after the win over Nick Kyrgios in the First Round, but Alexander Zverev is a player operating at a much higher level than the injury hit Australian.

After making a full recovery from a serious injury, Alexander Zverev has put plenty of wins on the board over the last twelve months and is playing as the World Number 2. The German is still only 27 years old so the chance to win a Grand Slam has not passed him by, and the hard courts might be the domain on which Alexander Zverev could have his best chance to do that.

No one will doubt his capabilities on the clay of Roland Garros either, but the focus is on a strong Australian Open and Alexander Zverev has been untroubled through the first two Rounds. The serve is always going to be a big weapon for the Number 2 Seed, but it is the return that has been catching the eye in the first two Rounds and maintaining those levels will make him very hard to beat.

That is unlikely if you look at the historical returning numbers, but Alexander Zverev will put Jacob Fearnley under some pressure, even if the British number is currently playing very well behind that shot. The service numbers have dipped to holding at around 80% of service games played when facing top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and this is far and away the highest Ranked player Jacob Fearnley has faced on the surface.

He is clearly a player that needs respect and Jacob Fearnley did raise interest last summer when taking a set from the great Novak Djokovic in the Second Round at Wimbledon. That may give Alexander Zverev the nudge to be that much more focused on the player rather than the World Ranking and the World Number 2 can find a way to cover this spread behind a solid straight sets win.

Coco Gauff - 5.5 games v Leylah Fernandez: Both of these players are Seeded at the Australian Open and both are former US Open Finalists- the difference is that World Number 3 Coco Gauff was able to win the title in Flushing Meadows, while World Number 29 Leylah Fernandez came up short in 2021 against Emma Raducanu.

After reaching her career best World Ranking in August 2022 with all of the points picked up from that US Open run, Leylah Fernandez has slipped back to be in and around the top 30 mark.

There is plenty of potential still to fulfil for the 22 year old Canadian, but Fernandez will need to find more consistency if she is going to become a regular feature in the top 20 or even better.

The hard court numbers kind of back that up with Leylah Fernandez a solid, but unspectacular player on the surface. There has also been a clear split in her capabilities against players that are Ranked higher or lower than her with Leylah Fernandez 15-6 against those she is expected to beat, and 6-10 against those she is perhaps not.

Leylah Fernandez feels like a momentum player and four of those six wins against higher Ranked players have come in the same two tournaments. Confidence clearly improves after an upset and Fernandez can keep things going, but there have been a lot of losses to the top players on the Tour and that includes a relatively one-sided defeat to Coco Gauff at the United Cup in the warm up to the Australian Open.

The World Number 3 has been pretty comfortable in her opening two matches in Melbourne and at 20 years old Coco Gauff is one of the stars of the sport.

Five wins at the United Cup means Coco Gauff comes into this event as one of the favourites and she is still one of the top hard court players on the WTA Tour. Her numbers at this event have been solid, but there is still more to come from Coco Gauff and the feeling is that she is playing a little within herself to ensure there is plenty left in the tank at the business end of the event.

A match like this should inspire Coco Gauff to be closer to her best knowing the kind of challenges that Leylah Fernandez could present if the higher Ranked player is not quite as focused as she should be.

It is not much of a concern for that to happen and Coco Gauff might be the player who gets a few more cheaper points behind the serve, which will put her in a strong position to move through to the Fourth Round. The serve was the key to the win over the Canadian at the United Cup and there is marked difference between the returning numbers of the two players on this surface over the last twelve months.

Covering this spread will be tough, but Coco Gauff is capable of finding the breaks of serve to do that and she can be backed here.

MY PICKS: Ugo Humbert-Arthur Fils Over 39.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Mirra Andeeva - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 11-4, + 8.48 Units (27 Units Staked, + 31.41% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2024 (Wednesday 17th January)

The first two days at the Australian Open were tremendously poor, but the First Round action concluded on Tuesday with a 5-1 run to at least get the tournament moving in a positive direction.

However, after the really poor run to open, there is still a long way back over the coming two weeks and there is little doubt that some luck will be needed.

It has been a frustrating start thanks to some near misses- there are at least three matches I can point to right away where the Picks were one or two points away from a win, but instead things spiralled out of control within those matches.

Sometimes there is nothing you can do about that- Felix Auger-Aliassime should have won in three sets, but was pushed into five, while Alexandre Muller had two Break Points that would have allowed him to serve out the match in the fourth set, and instead failed to capitalise and lost his serve, and the set, in the very next game.

As I said, there are matches that clearly stand out, but you can only do the research and make the selections and hope a little bit of luck is on your side.

The Day 3 Picks at least offers some momentum, but there is a mountain to trek to get truly back on track as the Second Round matches begin.

The big story through the First Round at the Australian Open is actually about an off court issue- Alexander Zverev is set to stand trial for a domestic abuse issue against a former girlfriend in May.

This has been a thorny issue for the player and the ATP for several months already, but the fact that his peers voted Alexander Zverev onto a representative body has really raised some eyebrows.

Unsurprisingly many of the questions to all players were focused on the Zverev issue.

My own personal feeling is that you cannot really expect to stop him playing on the Tour until he is officially found guilty. No matter how you feel, and I personally feel domestic abuse is abhorrent, it does feel that the evidence needs to be heard.

Mason Greenwood's situation at Manchester United was clearly very different to most others because we all heard the audio and so something immediate had to be done. With the Alexander Zverev situation, there is less clear evidence in the public domain, although the prosecutors clearly believe they have enough and so you have to let it play out through the justice system.

The worrying part is that he was voted onto the Player Council while these allegations have been around him and that is where the criticism is really finding a voice. While he is innocent until proven guilty, it is clearly not the time to be promoting Zverev into leadership roles and he should have been well aware of that himself, let alone others actually voting him in.

You have to feel this is going to overshadow every match he plays between now and the trial, while it is going to be interesting what kind of reaction he gets from the stands for the rest of this tournament and beyond.

Personally I think he has to be allowed to keep playing for now- but steps should be taken for him to move out of a limelight position and perhaps get Zverev focusing on clearing his name rather than being asked to lead his peers right now.

Gael Monfils - 1.5 games v Tomas Martin Etcheverry: It is hard to know how highly Tomas Martin Etcheverry performed in his win over Andy Murray- the performance was solid enough, but Murray was so far below par that you do have to wonder if Etcheverry was good or whether Murray was just really poor?

He is one of the Seeded players in the Australian Open draw, but the fact remains that Tomas Martin Etcheverry has not had the best hard court results. The win over a former US Open Champion will give him belief, but Etcheverry has to expect the next veteran to be faced to be much more energised than Andy Murray was in an very disappointing effort.

It will not take much for Gael Monfils to get the crowd on his side in this Second Round match and the Frenchman will be very happy with his own First Round performance. Like Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Gael Monfils was able to come through what looked a difficult match in straight sets and it should mean both players head onto the court with confidence.

We are very early into the 2024 season and neither of these players came into the first Grand Slam of the year with a victory to their name. That has changed in Melbourne, which is another confidence booster, while the edge has to be with Gael Monfils who has played some strong hard court tennis throughout his career.

Winning a title in Stockholm on an indoor hard court in the second half of 2023 saw Gael Monfils beginning to find some of his stronger form. He has nothing to defend in terms of points over the next few weeks so there is plenty of motivation to improve the World Ranking with a couple of victories in this draw and Gael Monfils has the athleticism to get the better of this opponent.

You have to wonder if Tomas Martin Etcheverry can serve as well as he did in the First Round for another couple of hours when the Second Round gets going. Numbers over the last twelve months suggests that it is unlikely, while Etcheverry is not the strongest return player on the hard courts.

Gael Monfils has struggled with his own return, but has had more success on that side of the court over the last six months. The expectation is that will show up here and the veteran can find a way into the Third Round and likely another clash with Novak Djokovic.

Jannik Sinner - 8.5 games v Jesper De Jong: A strong First Round win will have given Jannik Sinner plenty of belief that he has the tennis to win a maiden Grand Slam title.

Bigger tests are to come for Jannik Sinner, but this is going to feel like a step down from the First Round when the Italian takes on Qualifier Jesper De Jong in the Second Round.

You have to only credit the 23 year old Dutchman for winning three Qualifying matches and then coming from a set down to win his First Round match. The victory over Pedro Cachin is the first that Jesper De Jong has had over a top 100 Ranked opponent, but there are factors at play that will make this a considerably tougher match up for the underdog.

For starters, Pedro Cachin is not exactly known for his hard court prowess, while De Jong is playing someone Ranked higher than World Number 69 for the first time. There is no mistaking how much tougher it is going to feel for Jesper De Jong when taking on someone of the talent of Jannik Sinner, who is a fixture inside the top 10 of the World Rankings.

The unfamiliarity with the opponent may make things a little tougher for Jannik Sinner, but the Italian is someone who wants to impose his tennis on every player he faces on the Tour. His style will put a lot of pressure on an opponent that is not used to facing the best players on a regular basis, while Jannik Sinner has won sixteen matches in a row (that have been completed) against players Ranked outside of the top 100 when scheduled to play them on a hard court.

Jannik Sinner has maintained strong serving numbers in those matches, but most impressive is the huge amount of breaks of serve that he puts on the board.

It means Jesper De Jong is going to have to serve really well to keep Sinner at bay, but that is tough to do over the best of five set format and the Number 4 Seed can secure a couple of sets by comfortable margins.

Covering this spread is clearly not going to be easy, but Sinner could be even better with a match under his belt and he can find the breaks that will be needed.

Adrian Mannarino - 5.5 games v Jaume Munar: A First Round match that lasted over three and a half hours is far from ideal, but Adrian Mannarino may feel pretty good having come from 2-1 down to beat Stan Wawrinka in five sets. Beating a former Australian Open Champion will give the veteran some confidence, and the reward for Adrian Mannarino is a very winnable Second Round match.

Jaume Munar has to be given some credit for finding a way to win his own First Round match as a significant underdog- he had a decent year on the hard courts in 2022, but the Spaniard has struggled on the surface over the last twelve months.

That includes failing to Qualify for Hong Kong and Auckland after entering those Rounds, while Munar won just a single match on the hard courts on the main ATP Tour in 2023. Even that was against someone Ranked at Number 489 and the Spaniard had some poor numbers on the hard courts.

It makes the First Round win an important one for him, but backing that up will be tough for Jaume Munar, who has lost his sole previous match against Adrian Mannarino.

That was played on a clay court in Madrid, but Adrian Mannarino should have a bigger advantage on this surface.

Adrian Mannarino will have a challenge to back up his First Round win having invested as much as he did into that victory. However, he has continued to play well when facing opponents outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings on the hard courts and he should be able to push his way through this match in either three or four sets.

Even a four set win would give Adrian Mannarino to cover this big handicap mark and he should be able to exert enough pressure on Jaume Munar to earn the place in the Third Round.

MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 8.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Adrian Mannarino - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Elise Mertens - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 6-12, - 13.74 Units (36 Units Staked, - 38.17% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2023 (January 17th)

The first Grand Slam of the season is underway, but I did say in the Day 1 thread that I will have a few thoughts about how I believe the tournament could progress.

The men's tournament is still led by two veterans in Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, although the latter has been a fitness worry entering the Australian Open and showed very little to suggest he can go all the way in his First Round win over Jack Draper.

One or two concerns were raised about Novak Djokovic, but I am really not surprised that he is the odds on favourite to return to Melbourne and secure yet another Australian Open title and join his great rival Rafael Nadal on twenty-two career Slam titles.

Splitting these two legends in the market is Daniil Medvedev, the Runner Up in each of the last two years. I am not sure how he was beaten in the Final last year when seemingly firmly in control, and I am not sure Medvedev has much of an explanation himself, but he could take advantage in the top half of the draw.

Jannik Sinner is a dark horse having reached the Quarter Final at the US Open and I think I would be pretty surprised if the winner is not one of those names I've mentioned. I don't think Rafael Nadal can win the event barring a massive improvement in his fitness, and Novak Djokovic looks the rightful favourite.

Not for the first time in recent years, the women's event looks wide open and even more so when you think of some of the doubts around Iga Swiatek, the current World Number 1 and favourite to win the tournament.

Some suggested Iga Swiatek might not have been ready to compete, but she is in the draw and that means some big prices are available on some of the other key names to look out for.

I've long thought Aryna Sabalenka would win a Grand Slam and she looked in decent form leading into the Australian Open, while the timing might be right for Cori Gauff to really become a superstar of the sport.

In reality I think you could pick out ten names that have the potential to get hot over the next fortnight and take home a Grand Slam title- players like Caroline Garcia, Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Maria Sakkari all have to be respected.

Rather than ask me which of the two are most likely to make the Final a week on Saturday, I think you would have just as much a chance of getting your prediction right if you tossed ten names in the air and picked the two that landed the right way up.

The openness of the draw can be a stick that critics use to beat the WTA Tour, but I think it does make it intriguing for the fans. Making picks from the women's game can be a touch more hazardous though with players moving in and out of form every few days, let alone few tournaments, but I am hoping we can get two or three players who move clear of the pack to join Iga Swiatek as the top players on this Tour.

Day 1 is in the books and it was a decent start for the Tennis Picks.

While we have a loaded Day 2 schedule with the remainder of the First Round to be played, selections look a little harder to find and you can see my Picks below.

Matteo Berrettini - 4.5 games v Andy Murray: There always plenty of intriguing storylines and players to watch at the start of any Grand Slam event and we do have some very good looking First Round matches at the Australian Open in 2023. Arguably the best of the bunch is the match between Matteo Berrettini and Andy Murray as the two players hope for a year free from injury.

Both of these players have experienced success in Melbourne, although Andy Murray must always wonder how he was not able to win a Grand Slam title here. Those days of challenging for Slam titles look behind him, but Murray has arrived at the Australian Open in bullish mood and feels he is much closer to his best, which will allow him to take on the best players on the Tour with a real ambition to beat those players.

He did reach the Third Round at the US Open last September, but the run was ended at the hands of Matteo Berrettini in four sets and the same player will be in front of Murray to open his 2023 Grand Slam season.

2022 proved to be a tough year for Matteo Berrettini following his run to the Semi Final at the Australian Open and he missed significant time on the court, including being unable to play at Wimbledon the year after reaching the Final in SW19. There we no Ranking points available at Wimbledon, but Matteo Berrettini has slipped out of the top ten in the World Rankings with the time spent away from the Tour and there will be some pressure to match the run he had at the Australian Open last year to prevent another slippage.

Matteo Berrettini has shown he is a confident player on any surface and his serve is a very dangerous weapon on the hard courts.

He wins a high percentage of points behind serve and unsurprisingly that means Matteo Berrettini is able to hold plenty of his service games. There is still room for improvement on the return of serve, but Matteo Berrettini has had more success when facing Andy Murray and has broken in 22% of the returns games played against this opponent.

In the two previous hard court matches against Andy Murray, Matteo Berrettini has broken in 21% of return games played compared with a 12% mark for the former World Number 1. When they met at the US Open, Matteo Berrettini created almost four times more Break Points than Andy Murray managed to do on the day and the performances at the United Cup showed that Berrettini might be feeling his confidence returning on the court.

I like Andy Murray and there was a time when he had the athleticism and returning skills to give an opponent like Matteo Berrettini fits.

However, Murray has never really gotten back to his top level on the court on this side of the net and I think he will be competitive, but ultimately come up short in a similar manner as when these players met in New York City.

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 games v Dominic Thiem: The long recovery from injury for Dominic Thiem will have tested the former US Open Champion mentally and is only just inside the top 100 of the World Rankings these days.

He did have some decent runs at events after the US Open, but Dominic Thiem was well beaten in his first match of 2023 and this is a tough test for him.

Andrey Rublev may not be playing as well as he would like, but he had a strong World Tour Finals at the end of the 2022 season and three wins in a row over this opponent will give the Russian player a lot of confidence with the match up in front of him.

There is a lot to like about the way Andrey Rublev takes to matches on any surface and his aggression makes him dangerous. The serve has become a strong weapon for him and I think Rublev will be able to move into a position to earn his first win of the 2023 season after disappointing defeats in back to back events played in Adelaide.

Those losses will have dented some of the confidence, but Rublev will feel his opposite number is also having some issues finding the consistency he would want and the three wins in a row against the Austrian has to give Andrey Rublev more belief.

It is a spread that suggests the layers are not entirely sure what to expect from Andrey Rublev, but it may also be a line that represents what Dominic Thiem is capable of at his best. He has yet to find that level on his return from a long-term injury though and I think Rublev will be able to win this one in three or four sets, which should give him the opportunity to cover this line.

MY PICKS: Matteo Berrettini - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Thanasi Kokkinakis - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Roberto Bautista Agut - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 5-1, + 6.52 Units (12 Units Staked, + 54.33% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2022 (January 17th)

The Australian Open might be the first Grand Slam event of the season on the Tennis calendar, but there is no doubt that the tournament has been overshadowed to this point.

After ten days of back and forth, the World Number 1, the defending Champion and the nine time previous winner in Melbourne, Novak Djokovic, has been told he must leave the country. Honestly, it is a complete travesty with the way things have gone over the last few days and I would not be entirely surprised if Novak Djokovic never plays at this tournament again.

Like many, this is going to take a few days to really digest and I do think the early days of the tournament are going to be involving many journalists asking players for their thoughts on the situation.

I will have a fuller post for the Day 2 selections, but the Grand Slam has creeped around and that means Day 1 Picks from the First Round can be read below.

Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v Marcos Giron: Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic will not be playing in Melbourne this year and that means Rafael Nadal has the chance of moving ahead of his rivals in terms of overall Grand Slam titles won. Unfortunately for the Spaniard, the Australian Open is the Grand Slam he has struggled at the most and I think it would take some effort for Rafael Nadal to come through and win the tournament.

He has just found a player or two too good in the second week of the Australian Open, but this is a tournament in which Rafael Nadal has played well early. He won a title in preparation for the tournament, so confidence is not going to be an issue for the former World Number 1, and I think this is a match in which he can make a strong start.

Marcos Giron is not a player that can be easily dismissed, but he is 0-2 in matches played in 2022 and it is a big test for any player lower down the Rankings to take on a top 20 opponent early in a Grand Slam. The only real hope for the American is that Nadal is perhaps a little nervous early in a big tournament, but even that feels like a stretch for Marcos Giron who has held just 60% of the service games played in Australia so far this season.

His numbers are usually much better behind that shot, but Marcos Giron is likely going to be put under pressure by Rafael Nadal who is an effective return player and one who will not take a game off.

When he has played the top players on the Tour on the hard courts, Marcos Giron has really struggled with his own return of serve and I think that could be key for Rafael Nadal when it comes to covering this spread. Rafael Nadal has broken in 32% of return games played on his way to a title win in Melbourne, although none of the opponents he has faced have been Ranked inside the top 95 and so I do think Marcos Giron is going to be a player that will hold his own a little bit more.

However, I do think this is a very tough match for the underdog and I think Rafael Nadal is going to exert his pressure on the American the longer this match goes. The spread looks like it could have been a game or more higher than it is ahead of this First Round match, but it still may be a close run thing for Rafael Nadal who may need to come through a tough opening set before beginning to really let his tennis flow.

Hubert Hurkacz - 6.5 games v Egor Gerasimov: He may be best known as being the player who handed out a bagel to Roger Federer at Wimbledon, but Hubert Hurkacz is a top ten Ranked player in his own right. He has won a big title on the hard courts before at Masters level and the tall, Polish player will feel pretty comfortable in the match up.

You can't really put too much stock in the performances at the ATP Cup- Hubert Hurkacz crushed two players who are Ranked outside the top 600, but went 1-1 against the two top 20 players he met in that tournament. The preparation for the Australian Open has been a little mixed with that in mind, but Hubert Hurkacz has played well in all four matches which has to be good news for the confidence of a player that will be looking to make serious moves at Grand Slam level after the strong tournament at Wimbledon last July.

2021 was a solid year on the hard courts for Hubert Hurkacz and he is a player that will roll pretty far thanks to strong serving numbers. I expect that to be a key in this First Round match, but I also have to respect relatively decent return numbers on this surface after Hurkacz broke in 21% of return games played on the surface last year.

It is certainly something that will encourage him against Egor Gerasimov who has had a couple of decent showings in tournaments that have been played in Adelaide in preparation for the Australian Open. The Belarusian reached the Quarter Final of one of the two tournaments he has played, and Egor Gerasimov has been up against some good competition which will help the belief.

However, he has lost both previous matches against Hubert Hurkacz and that includes a relatively straight-forward loss at the US Open in August. Four breaks of serve in favour of the higher Ranked player helped Hubert Hurkacz win comfortably and he has broken in 50% of return games played against Egor Gerasimov, which is huge.

I expect Gerasimov to be better in this match, but it may not make too much of a difference if he cannot get into the Hurkacz service games and the feeling is that it may result in a relatively comfortable win for the top ten player.

Aslan Karatsev - 6.5 games v Jaume Munar: Twelve months is a long time in Tennis, but you have to credit Aslan Karatsev and the way he has handled himself after propelling himself into the limelight. Strong performances at the end of the 2020 season on the Challenger Tour was a huge confidence booster for the Russian, but not many would have taken Daniil Medvedev seriously when he spoke about having a secret weapon at the last ATP Cup.

However, Aslan Karatsev more than backed up those claims with a stunning run through to the Semi Final at the Australian Open and it took Novak Djokovic, the eventual Champion, to end the run.

For most it may have been tough to back up an unexpected success, but Aslan Karatsev has had a very big year and he is into the top 20 going into the Australian Open in 2022. There will be a real confidence going into the tournament where he will need to defend some big Ranking points after Aslan Karatsev won the title in Sydney a couple of days ago, although it is not ideal that he has had to travel to Melbourne and play on the opening day of the tournament.

The title win will help though and the numbers produced by Aslan Karatsev on the hard courts over the last couple of years gives him a big edge over Jaume Munar. The latter has produced a 3-2 record on the hard courts in preparation for the Australian Open, but the draws have been kind to Jaume Munar and this is far from an easy match for him.

The two players met at the US Open last year and it took Aslan Karatsev four sets to beat Jaume Munar, although he was the much stronger player with more break points created and I do think the Russian will be too good.

It is a big spread for a player that can be a little loose behind serve, but I do think Aslan Karatsev has a return which can put him in a position to do so as long as he doesn't play the kind of set that saw Jaume Munar pull clear at the US Open. He should be able to have success putting the Munar serve under some pressure consistently and I think that will see Aslan Karatsev find the performance to cover this mark.

Gael Monfils - 8.5 games v Federico Coria: Winning a title in Adelaide to open 2022 has backed up what was a stronger second half of the season for Gael Monfils in 2021. The veteran may have missed his window to win a Grand Slam title, but the title in Adelaide will give him confidence in a section of the draw that will be without Novak Djokovic.

The very least expectation for Gael Monfils has to be reaching the business end of the tournament now the top Seed is out of the draw and the way the tournament is shaping up. The early retirement in the second tournament in Adelaide is not a massive concern because it may have just been the fatigue of winning the title before that, and Gael Monfils is right to be set as a significant favourite in this First Round match.

He beat Federico Coria at the US Open pretty comfortably last year and the underdog is someone who has struggled on the hard courts throughout his career. A first match in 2022 may mean there is not much motivation for Coria to push himself when he considers his struggles on the surface and I do think it may see him check out of the match mentally.

Last season Federico Coria held just 63% of his service games played on the hard courts, and he was broken in 50% of the service games played against Gael Monfils at the US Open. The major problem for the Argentinian is that he has not really been able to impose himself on the return game either and it has meant Federico Coria has been well beaten in many matches on the surface.

The Frenchman's serve looked to be working well already in the Australian summer and Gael Monfils has always been an effective returner on the hard courts. His athleticism and ability to play strong defensive tennis can frustrate opponents and break down their game as they push for the lines and I think Gael Monfils will be able to do the same to Federico Coria, much as he did in New York City when the two met in the First Round.

Gael Monfils is playing better tennis now than he was back in August and I think that also shows up as he covers a very big mark in the First Round in Melbourne.

Paula Badosa - 4.5 games v Ajla Tomljanovic: The home crowd may feel their main hope of seeing an Australian Champion at the Open this season is the top Seed in the Women's draw, but another hope will begin their campaign on Monday. The eyes will be on the Rod Laver Arena where Ashleigh Barty is playing, but it is the second match in the night session on Margaret Court Arena that will feature Ajla Tomljanovic.

A career best World Ranking of Number 39 is not really suggesting that Tomljanovic is a potential Grand Slam Champion in the making, but the atmosphere should be a really good one. The Australian fans will be keen to get behind their player and look for the upset, but Paula Badosa is a much improved hard court performer and I do think she is going to have too much for Ajla Tomljanovic in this First Round match.

Paula Badosa won the title in Sydney beat four top 30 Ranked players in that run, which will obviously boost the confidence of the higher Ranked performer in this match.

There is room for improvement though and Paula Badosa has to find a way to protect her second serve a little better than she has managed in 2022 so far. Those are from a small sample of matches, but Badosa has had to get a lot more out of her return game to win matches because of the issues that can come up when the second serve is being attacked.

Ajla Tomljanovic has not played poorly in the opening tournaments of 2022, but she has been an inconsistent player on the hard courts. There are times when Tomljanovic looks like she is ready to take the next step in her career, but at the same time there are moments when she has struggled when the pressure builds and I do think it can be tough to play in front of the home fans when the expectation is perhaps higher than it should be.

These two players met in Sydney and the return of both players was massive to the outcome of the match- both played well on that side, but Paula Badosa earned more break points and I think she is playing at a level that may be difficult for Ajla Tomljanovic to keep up with.

Make no mistake, this is a big spread for a player to cover when the serve is perhaps not firing as well as it has been for Paula Badosa, but I do think the title win in Sydney will provide the boost needed to push on and beat Ajla Tomljanovic for a second time in Australia this year. The Spaniard only just covered on the day, but I think she may have just enough to do that here too, even with the spread perhaps a game higher than where I would be really comfortable.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 7.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Hubert Hurkacz - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Aslan Karatsev - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Gael Monfils - 8.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Paula Badosa - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

NFL PlayOff Picks 2022- Super Wild Card Weekend 2021 (January 15-17 2022)

The NFL PlayOffs begin on Saturday in mid-January and there looks to be some very strong games to be played over the Super Wild Card Round of the post-season.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: The final seconds of the last game of the 2021 regular season looked like it could wind down to the tie that would have eliminated the Pittsburgh Steelers and taken the Los Angeles Chargers to the PlayOffs alongside Divisional rivals the Las Vegas Raiders (10-7). However, one more big run in Overtime was good enough for the Raiders to set up a Field Goal to eliminate the Chargers and it was a victory that meant avoiding facing the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs.

Instead the Raiders will have to travel to take on the AFC North Champions the Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) who should have their key players well rested. The Divisional crown was wrapped up in Week 17 and the Bengals were not in a position to move into the top two Seeds in the Conference and so a decision was made to make sure Cincinnati are ready for this PlayOff Game.

Both the Bengals and Raiders have had little PlayOff success in recent years and for both Derek Carr and Joe Burrow this will be the first taste of the post-season in the NFL. Cincinnati won't be too concerned with Joe Burrow, who won the National Championship with the LSU Tigers, but you can't ignore how tough first time starters have found life in the post-season in the professional rank and it is something that both starting Quarter Backs will have to deal with on Saturday in the opening PlayOff Game of the 2021 season.

This is the second time the Raiders and Bengals are meeting after Cincinnati won big on the road, but this time they will be getting to host the game. The weather could be a real factor for a team coming out of Nevada and not being accustomed to the kind of cold that will be around in Ohio in January too and both of those factors will have people leaning towards the Cincinnati Bengals.

However, I do think the Raiders can match up well with this Cincinnati Bengals team on both sides of the ball and that could see them make this a much more competitive affair than the home game which was won by the Bengals by double digits. Key players are back for Las Vegas and they have momentum having won the last game of the regular season to secure their place in the post-season.

Like last weekend, the key for the Las Vegas Raiders is making sure they do not move too far away from the Offensive game plan- they have to make sure Josh Jacobs gets his touches at Running Back and the Offense does not become too one-dimensional too early and hope Derek Carr is having one of his better days in the office.

I am not convinced about Derek Carr despite the fact he can be very good at his best- ultimately he is not consistent enough to believe in. However, the Raiders can set him up in a strong position by running the ball with Jacobs who will be facing a Bengals Defensive Line which has just struggled to contain the run down the stretch.

Putting Derek Carr in third and manageable spots makes things so much easier for a team that does not have the deep threat they would have done earlier in the season, but the likes of Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller are capable of making plays to keep the chains moving. The Quarter Back is also playing behind a strong Offensive Line which will offer him some time to make his throws down the field and I do think the Las Vegas Raiders can have success in this one as they look to advance.

It also should be pointed out that the Las Vegas Raiders have earned their spot in the post-season thanks to the performance of the Defensive unit, even more so than Derek Carr and the Offensive unit. The Raiders have really played well down the stretch, although they will be the first to admit that Joe Burrow and the Bengals will provide a very stiff challenge.

Like the other side of the ball, Las Vegas do feel like they match up well with the Bengals here too and that is taking nothing away from Joe Burrow and how well he has played this season. Cincinnati have some very talented skill players, but they were thankful to a really big performance from Joe Mixon when winning on the road earlier this season and that may be tough to replicate when you think of the much improved performances of the Las Vegas Defensive Line.

This comes at the same time when the Bengals Offensive Line has just struggled to open consistent holes for their Running Back and have also had some issues in pass protection. The Raiders have a pass rush that can get after the Quarter Back without the need to send extra rushers and that is very important for the road team as they look to make plays against Joe Burrow and cover his skill players at Receiver.

The Bengals played well enough down the stretch to think they will have some success, but I think the Raiders match up pretty good and that should mean they can make some plays to keep this one close. Both teams will feel they have something to prove having struggled to make the PlayOffs in recent times, but the pressure of being a favourite for a first time Quarter Back playing in the NFL post-season may just weigh on Joe Burrow a bit more than the underdog Derek Carr.

I can't help but respect the level reached by the Bengals this season, but the Raiders are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight as the road underdog and I think they can keep this close with the points they have been given.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots Pick: Two AFC East teams have made it through to the NFL PlayOffs and the Divisional rivals will be facing one another one more time in 2021, this time with a lot more on the line. The Buffalo Bills (11-6) and the New England Patriots (10-7) both beat the other on the road, but it is the Bills who went on to win the Division and that means they will get the chance to host this game.

A defeat at the Miami Dolphins in Week 18 knocked the Patriots down into the Number 6 Seed in the AFC and that means missing out on a potential game in Cincinnati rather than having to face the Bills again. Bill Belichick and Sean McDermott will not have too many secrets from the other and the weather is going to be extremely cold in Buffalo, much like it was when these teams met here in the regular season.

There is a key difference which should aid Buffalo a lot more than it did when they were beaten by the New England Patriots back in Week 13- on that day, the wind meant neither team had much success throwing the ball and the Patriots won with three passes thrown by Mac Jones, but in this Wild Card Game it is going to be cold, but not windy.

That is a huge boost for the Buffalo Bills who will be looking for Josh Allen to lead them to another win over the New England Patriots having thrown for over 300 yards in a row win at the Patriots. While Bill Belichick is the kind of Coach that has become known for taking away key pieces of an Offense his team are facing, Josh Allen has been tough for the Patriots to corral and I think he will be a key for the Buffalo Bills as they look to have another deep run in the post-season.

Josh Allen won't have it easy and had to throw the ball plenty of times to pick up his yards in the win over the Patriots in Foxboro, but I think he can offer the Bills plenty of balance. They do tend to run the ball with their Quarter Back rather than Devin Singletary or Zack Moss, but the Bills should be able to pick up some strong yards on the ground in this one and especially if Allen loosens the New England Defensive Line a little more by getting to a hot start throwing the ball.

There are enough passing options to keep the chains moving for Buffalo even if Stefon Diggs and Dawson Knox are limited and I do think Josh Allen has a strong PlayOff outing. It will mean the pressure is on the New England Coaching staff to prevent Buffalo from piling up the points as it feels like the Patriots can only win a low-scoring game.

It is my opinion anyway and the Patriots cannot afford to let this game get out of hand early as they look to keep Mac Jones from having to do too much in his first Quarter Back start in the NFL PlayOffs. The young player has had a good year, but there is still much to learn and it is clear that the Patriots are going to rely on their strong Offensive Line and ability to sub in Running Backs to run the ball efficiently in order to win games.

Mac Jones will know he is going to need to throw the ball a lot more than he did in the first visit to Buffalo, but New England are going to know they will need to run the ball plenty of times if they are going to win this game. It has been one of the weaknesses of the Buffalo Defensive unit when it comes to stopping the run and I think that is really important to note and could be a major factor in this game as long as it is close.

Things change dramatically if the Patriots have to lean on Mac Jones and the passing Offense to get the job done and it does not favour New England in that situation. The Buffalo Secondary is very good and they will feel they have a clear edge if they can put the Patriots in a position where they have to throw the ball to stay in the game.

That would also see the Buffalo pass rush come into play and I do think the AFC East Champions will have the edge in this Wild Card Game and can move past New England with a cover on the night.

New England do have a very good record in Buffalo when it comes to the spread, but those were largely in the Tom Brady era- you still cannot ignore the fact that the Patriots have covered in their two games here since Brady moved on to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers too. However, Buffalo have blown out the Patriots twice in Foxboro in that time and I do think Mac Jones could have some issues in his first ever PlayOff start.

The Patriots are also playing off a loss and have performed well in that spot, but Buffalo match up well with them and I think the 11-5-2 record against the spread in their last eighteen as the home favourite is important. Buffalo have to avoid mistakes early and, if they can do that, I think they can win and cover this spread.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: The experience edge at Quarter Back is very much with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4) as the last Super Bowl Champions begin their post-season adventure at the end of the 2021 season. They could become the first team in almost twenty years to win back to back Super Bowl titles and in Tom Brady they have the last Quarter Back to achieve that during his long spell with the New England Patriots.

Not many will rule out the Buccaneers from winning it all again, although the injuries to key skill players and the fallout from the Antonio Brown situation does hurt the team. Tampa Bay have momentum with their strong end to the regular season and Tom Brady is capable of making a star out of other Receivers on the Offensive unit, but the injury to Leonard Fournette is another challenge for the Buccaneers to overcome.

Tom Brady will feel he can still exploit the Philadelphia Eagles (9-8) who were blown out in Week 18 as they rested starters in preparation for the return to the post-season. The Defensive Line continues to be the strength of the Eagles on this side of the ball and they will at least believe they can force Tom Brady to have to move the chains with his arm, even if that is something that is entirely possible.

The Eagles have a Secondary which has struggled at times and I do think the Buccaneers are going to be difficult to slow down at home. Tampa Bay only played at home in the Super Bowl in the 2020 PlayOffs, but they should be good enough to earn at least two during this year and every chance that the Buccaneers will be hosting three NFC PlayOff Games before the Super Bowl in Los Angeles.

Tom Brady is hugely experienced and the Buccaneers will not panic when he has the ball, but the Philadelphia Eagles are not going to be as sure about their Quarter Back. Jalen Hurts has not played a post-season game for the Eagles before and those first time Quarter Backs can have a very difficult, eye-opening experience in those games.

Philadelphia will have a very clear game-plan though and that is to run the ball as often as they can- Jalen Hurts is a mobile Quarter Back himself, but the Eagles have a committee at Running Back led by Miles Sanders who have sparked the team into the PlayOffs. Earlier this season they did not have the same commitment to the run, but the Eagles have been very strong over the last few weeks and the Offensive Line enjoys grading the road.

In recent years the Buccaneers Defensive Line has been a strength of the team, but there have been one or two more holes up front and I expect the Eagles to have some success exploiting those. As long as the game is close, the Eagles should feel they can lean on the run to keep Brady and the Buccaneers Offense cooling off on the sidelines.

Jalen Hurts is going to have to make some big throws too at times to keep the Buccaneers honest, but he is playing for an Eagles team that have been money when set as the underdog in the PlayOffs.

I hate opposing Tom Brady and his Tampa Bay team are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven as the home favourite, but having more than a Touchdown start with the road underdog looks big. As good as the Buccaneers were in winning the Super Bowl last season, they had some close challenges in the run to the big game and I think there is every chance this could be a competitive one too.

San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: There is so much history attached to games between the San Francisco 49ers (10-7) and Dallas Cowboys (12-5) and they will meet in the post-season once again. The Dallas Cowboys largely controlled the NFC East and were comfortable Divisional Winners, but the 49ers had to fight and claw their way into the post-season and it took an Overtime win in Week 18 against rivals the Los Angeles Rams to earn a place in the PlayOffs.

Now they are here, the 49ers look like being one of the more dangerous Wild Card teams in either Conference and I do think they will believe they can match up pretty well with the Dallas Cowboys. Take away the win over the second string Philadelphia Eagles in Week 18 and you have to note that the Dallas Cowboys have had some inconsistent form from the Offensive unit, which will encourage the 49ers.

A Cowboys defeat to the Arizona Cardinals may give the San Francisco 49ers the kind of blueprint they need to beat the hosts and I do think the 49ers are playing with a confidence that could be tough to shake away. Jimmy Garoppolo has seemingly played under pressure all season at Quarter Back, but he is avoiding the back-breaking mistakes that can litter his game and he will not be asked to win the game.

Instead the 49ers will make sure they establish the run and look for that to set up play-action and screens that can keep the Quarter Back out of trouble. The run is very important to the San Francisco game-plan if only to slow down the pass rush threat that the Cowboys have up front, while it may make an aggressive Secondary just have to think twice before they try and make plays to turn the ball around.

I do think San Francisco will have success moving the ball, but I think it is the much improved performances of the Defensive unit which may end up being the key to the outcome of this Wild Card Game. I like the Dallas Cowboys Offense and there is no doubt the kind of talent they possess, but the Offensive Line has not been as good at opening up the run as they have been in recent seasons and Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard could be contained by a much improved San Francisco Defensive Line.

Dak Prescott has plenty of Receivers who can get open, but it is a different test throwing down the field from third and long rather than third and manageable, especially as the 49ers have had the pass rush ramp up. The Dallas Offensive Line has been pretty good when it comes to pass protection, so I do think Prescott will have time, but the 49ers have used the pressure up front to get better play out of the Secondary and will feel they can keep this one close.

It feels like a game that could be the closest one of the Wild Card Round and I do think the underdog could bare their teeth.

Dallas have had a very good season, but they are just 6-5 against non-Divisional opponents and San Francisco look to be playing with momentum heading into the PlayOffs. I would suggest paying the price to get the hook on the 3 point spread in a game that could come down to a Field Goal either way, but the underdog still looks the better play.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: It truly felt that Ben Roethlisberger was playing the final snaps of his career a couple of weeks ago in an emotional win for the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1) against the Cleveland Browns. Things were going to have to work out in strange ways for the Steelers to make the PlayOffs going into Week 18, but they beat their rivals the Baltimore Ravens in Overtime and the Jacksonville Jaguars upset the Indianapolis Colts to give them hope.

However, the Steelers couldn't have been feeling that good when the Raiders and Chargers Sunday Night Football game went into Overtime knowing a tie would mean both of those teams made the PlayOffs at the expense of Pittsburgh. A walk off Field Goal win for the Raiders with time expiring was enough for Pittsburgh and they may feel they have nothing to lose now they have made the post-season.

So now Big Ben has one more shot at trying to add to the Super Bowls he has won in his time with the Steelers, although they are a huge underdog against the Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) who won the AFC West, but failed to win the AFC Number 1 Seed. The Chiefs will be hosting at least two home PlayOff Games though and I do think they are going to be very confident in their chances of progressing through the post-season.

Patrick Mahomes and the Offensive unit looks to be getting healthier some aspects and they are also a team that has built some chemistry, but this is a huge spread for the Chiefs to cover. They did crush the Pittsburgh Steelers at home last month and that will not be far from the minds of the players or the fans, but I also think the Steelers will feel they can offer much more resistance in this one.

TJ Watt did not have the kind of impact he would have wanted in that game, but I think the Steelers Defensive Line will feel they can at least harass Patrick Mahomes and force him to make some mistakes. Those are not very frequent though and I still think the Chiefs will be able to move the ball and score plenty of points, although they are perhaps not the team to really expose the Steelers like others could.

It has been very possible to crack the Steel Curtain this season and hammer the run home, but the Chiefs are a team that prefer throwing, which is not a massive surprise considering they have Patrick Mahomes behind Center.

Running the ball is going to be the key for the Pittsburgh Steelers to see if they can extend drives and keep the Chiefs powerful Offensive unit on the sidelines. Najee Harris is expected to suit up and in recent games it has been possible for teams to run the ball against this Chiefs Defensive Line, while the Pittsburgh Offensive Line ended the season with strong showings on the ground.

Najee Harris has to keep the team in front of the chains with the clearly declined Ben Roethlisberger at Quarter Back. It has meant the passes have been coming out pretty short, but those can be successful if the team is in front of the chains, while the Receiving department will be boosted by JuJu Smith-Schuster who can play out of the slot and make plenty of yards after the catch.

Those quick throws have also kept Roethlisberger upright and I think the Steelers should be more competitive than when they were blown out in this Stadium in December. It would be a huge surprise if the Steelers upset Kansas City, but this is a huge spread and a backdoor cover for the road team cannot be ruled out.

Opposing Patrick Mahomes is very tough considering how quickly he can help the Kansas City Chiefs score points, but I expect the veteran Pittsburgh Steelers to give them all they can handle in this one.

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: The Super Wild Card Round of the NFL also gave the League a big new television contract as we will have a Monday Night Football game in the post-season for the first time. The selection was for two Divisional rivals to meet in that inaugural game and neither the Arizona Cardinals (11-5) nor the Los Angeles Rams (12-6) will feel they have a lot of momentum going into the post-season and that can be critical to the chances of going very deep.

Both were beaten in Week 18 and those defeats came in live games- the Rams loss ended a winning run of five games, but the Cardinals are under more pressure with four losses in their last five games and you can understand why the Los Angeles Rams are considered favourites. In the regular season, both had wins on the road against the other though and I think the familiarity with the Rams will suit the Arizona Cardinals who were the last team to lose a game in the NFL this season.

Injuries have not really helped the Cardinals and the loss of DeAndre Hopkins was a bitter blow to the Offensive unit that had started the season looking as good as any out there. Kyler Murray has played well at Quarter Back, but losing someone who can make all the catches like Hopkins has hurt his level as much as anyone on this team.

Chase Edmonds should be ready to go for the Cardinals to give them a boost at Running Back, but it feels like it will come too soon for James Connor. That is a major blow for Arizona who are going to try and run the ball against a tough Rams Defensive Line, but Edmonds will at least offer something for Arizona.

This is a team that is based around being able to run the ball well and making sure that the Offense is throwing out of third and short spots rather than having to pick up big yardage. Getting ahead of the chains will give Kyler Murray a real chance of exploiting the Secondary, but it will perhaps be more important to slow down the Los Angeles pass rush which is going to be devastating if the Cardinals are playing from obvious passing situations.

While there have been some struggles Offensively, the Cardinals have at least looked at their Defensive unit and will believe those players give them a chance to keep this one competitive. There is no doubt that Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams are not playing as well as they once were, even though they had won five in a row before the loss in Week 18, and I do think the Cardinals match up pretty well with them on this side of the ball.

Teams have been able to run the ball against Arizona, but the Rams are more likely to want to use the quick passing game to keep the chains moving. Los Angeles have not had the best Offensive Line when it comes to looking to run the ball, although Cam Akers is back and could offer them a spark. Unfortunately it may not be ideal with the Cardinals looking to activate JJ Watt back onto the Defensive Line on Monday and the pressure will be on Matthew Stafford to come out and have a big game at Quarter Back.

Matthew Stafford has been an upgrade on Jared Goff, but he will be under no illusions that his legacy will be cemented on whether he can take the Rams one step further than Goff did and win the Super Bowl. Cooper Kuup and Odell Beckham Jr give Stafford some very strong Receiving weapons, but I think the Quarter Back is not yet over some of the issues he has been having with his back and that has contributed to the numbers slumping somewhat.

Those Receivers mentioned will find some gaps to exploit, but it could be another close game between these Divisional rivals who know exactly what to expect from the other. The Arizona Cardinals did out-gain the Los Angeles Rams in both games played this season and I think Kyler Murray and company may have a touch more balance Offensively which makes the points on offer look appealing.

The road team is also 5-1-1 against the spread in the last seven between the NFC West rivals.

Arizona are 18-6-3 against the spread in their last twenty-seven as the road underdog and I do think they will feel they have been underestimated going into the post-season. While Sean McVay has been a very good Head Coach at helping his team bounce back from losses, the Rams have been a touch over-rated and that has seen them go 3-7 against the spread in their last ten as the favourite and I think the Arizona Cardinals may be able to do enough to keep this one competitive throughout.

MY PICKS: Las Vegas Raiders + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Philadelphia Eagles + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

San Francisco 49ers + 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Pittsburgh Steelers + 12.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Arizona Cardinals + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Week 18: 6-6, - 1.16 Units (24 Units Staked, - 4.83% Yield)

Week 17: 3-4, - 2.46 Units (14 Units Staked, - 17.57% Yield)

Week 16: 6-4, + 3 Units (20 Units Staked, + 15% Yield)

Week 15: 8-3, + 8.64 Units (22 Units Staked, + 39.28% Yield)

Week 14: 6-2, + 7 Units (16 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)

Week 13: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 12: 5-6, - 2.74 Units (22 Units Staked, - 12.45% Yield)

Week 11: 0-6, - 12 Units (12 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 10: 5-5, - 0.88 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.40% Yield)

Week 9: 2-5, - 6.28 Units (14 Units Staked, - 44.86% Yield)

Week 8: 1-6, - 10.18 Units (14 Units Staked, - 72.71% Yield)

Week 7: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 2.64 Units (14 Units Staked, - 18.86% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2-1, + 3.28 Units (14 Units Staked, + 23.43% Yield)

Week 4: 7-3, + 6.46 Units (20 Units Staked, + 32.30% Yield)

Week 3: 7-3, + 6.68 Units (20 Units Staked, + 33.40% Yield)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 3-6, - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)

Season 2021: 76-72-1, - 5.48 Units (298 Units Staked, - 1.84% Yield)