Australian Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2025 (Tuesday 14th January)

The First Round at the Australian Open is going to be concluded on Day 3 at the first Grand Slam of the season.

In the main the majority of the big names and favourites have moved through to the Second Round, although the loss suffered by Nick Kyrgios is a disappointment.

He is clearly not quite back to full health, but it was a concern that Kyrgios has spoken about potentially retiring- he is going to have a strong career in broadcasting circles, but the Aussie is one of the more interesting players to watch on the Tour and it would be a big blow for fans as we look for more characters to take the sport forward.

Stefanos Tsitsipas is the one stand out name eliminated from the tournament and you do have to wonder about the direction his career is taking. Some felt he was a future Grand Slam Champion in the making, although his returning numbers were concerning, but right now Tsitsipas is on a poor run and he will need to get back to the drawing board to find a way to turn things around.

The Tennis Picks continue on Day 3 and the my selections can be seen below as the First Round concludes.

It has been a decent enough start to the tournament for the selections, but we have only moved through two days of a fifteen day event and so there is plenty of work still to do.

Katie Boulter - 4.5 games v Rebecca Marino: Over the course of this season, British Number 1 Katie Boulter is going to turn 29 years old and so the time to make a really big impact on the Tour is now.

A decent ending to 2024 means she enters the Australian Open at her career best World Ranking and there will be plenty of support for Katie Boulter from the stands after announcing her engagement to Australian player Alex De Minaur.

Two wins at the United Cup in the warm up to Melbourne will give Boulter some confidence and she also was able to take a set from Iga Swiatek, even if she was ultimately beaten by the current World Number 2. However, Katie Boulter's confidence should not be dented having shown improvement on the hard courts in each of the last few seasons and she should have too much for the veteran facing her in the First Round.

All respect has to be given to Rebecca Marino as the 34 year old continues to just about hold onto a top 100 World Ranking and she remains a competitive player on the Tour. In 2024, Rebecca Marino won 71% of her hard court matches played, which will mean she is going to arrive in Melbourne full of belief as to what she wants to do on the court, but the reality is that the Canadian has played a lot of those matches away from the main Tour level.

To highlight that statement, it should be noted that Rebecca Marino finished 2024 with a 47-19 mark on the hard courts, but that was just 3-4 when playing top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface.

She was able to win just five games in a pretty straight-forward defeat to Emma Raducanu at the BJK Cup at the end of 2024 and Rebecca Marino will be dealing with a tough opponent across the net who will be receiving a huge amount of support from the stands.

Experience means Marino will be used to situations like this, but she will also be aware that her two previous matches against Katie Boulter have ended in relatively easy defeats.

One of those was in Montreal on the hard courts in 2023 and the other on the grass courts in Nottingham in 2024, but on both occasions the match was dominated by Katie Boulter. Rebecca Marino's second serve has been attacked with real positivity by Katie Boulter and the former has not been able to get enough out of her return game in the previous matches to believe this one will be much different.

Emma Navarro - 1.5 games v Peyton Stearns: Two American players meet in the First Round and there will be no secrets between Emma Navarro and Peyton Stearns when they enter the court at the opening Grand Slam of the 2025 season.

Last year was a breakout one for Emma Navarro who will be playing as the World Number 8 in Melbourne having entered the 2024 Australian Open as the World Number 26. She has continued to grow on the Tour having found her feet following a tough introduction, and Emma Navarro had big impacts at Wimbledon and the US Open last year, which will also give her confidence a signifcant boost.

Early losses in Brisbane and Auckland have perhaps contributed to what is a surprising spread, especially as Emma Navarro was suffering with an illness at the back end of the last campaign that meant missing out on a lucrative opportunity to play at the WTA Finals.

Her head to head with Peyton Stearns will give Navarro more confidence, although the sole match between these two compatriots on the hard courts ended in a victory for the narrow underdog.

Peyton Stearns is getting closer and closer to setting a new career high World Ranking and she will certainly be able to achieve that with a big run in Melbourne. She has three wins under her belt from the warm up events for the Australian Open, while the two defeats to Daria Kasatkina and Paula Badosa were in very competitive matches.

There is no doubt that Peyton Stearns is playing well enough to deserve a lot of respect and especially so when you think of the lack of wins Emma Navarro has produced since her run to the US Open Semi Final in September.

It would be a real surprise if this match was to be concluded in straight sets for either player, but Emma Navarro's experience and improvements over the last twelve months still give her a slight edge. Even in a three set win, the higher Ranked American can do enough to cover this mark and make her way through to the Second Round to be played later this week.

MY PICKS: Katie Boulter - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Emma Navarro - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Gael Monfils-Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Over 43.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 2-1, + 1.44 Units (4 Units Staked, + 36% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2024 (Sunday 14th January)

There has long been a suggestion that the Tours will decide to push the first Grand Slam of the season a little further into the New Year, but the only change at the Australian Open in 2024 is that we have a Sunday start at the tournament.

The 2024 season has only just gotten going and we are about to see the first Grand Slam of the year getting underway.

Novak Djokovic looks like he is once again the player to beat in the Men's tournament in Melbourne having won the title in each of the last four runnings of the Australian Open in which he has been allowed to enter the draw. Last season he made it ten titles at the Australian Open and it is going to take a big effort, or an injury, to knock the World Number 1 off course as he looks to extend his lead in the Grand Slam collection race.

One more Grand Slam title would actually see Novak Djokovic pass Margaret Court to single-handedly hold the most Slam titles won by either a male or female player in history.

The draw looks a kind one for Novak Djokovic, although the biggest threat could be someone like Jannik Sinner who beat the World Number 1 twice in the last couple of weeks of the 2023 season.

Carlos Alcaraz is clearly one of the top names on the Tour and Daniil Medvedev has reached the Final twice before so both will believe they have a real shot at taking home the title out of the bottom half of the draw, but it is very difficult to oppose Novak Djokovic when all is said and done.

There looks to be four clear contenders in the Women's draw here in Melbourne too- a Big Three looked to have pulled clear of the rest last year, but Coco Gauff won the US Open and has fulfilled the potential so many believed she had when breaking through as a 15 year old.

The American, the World Number 1 Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina and last year's Champion Aryna Sabalenka are leading the outright market and you would imagine that the winner of the first Grand Slam of the season will come from one of those in that quartet.

It is Elena Rybakina who has perhaps laid down the biggest challenge by winning a title in the warm up tournaments, which included a crushing win over Sabalenka, but all four of those names mentioned will be very confident in their ability to pick up another Grand Slam title.

However, the Women's events can still be a little erratic and Marketa Vondrousova winning Wimbledon last year backs up that assertion. Upsets have been common in the best of three set format and we could see another big priced winner instead of one of the favourites.

Picking someone outside of the top four in the outright market is not easy, and those four mentioned remain the most likely Champion.

The Australian Open has a number of former Grand Slam Champions returning in the Women's draw, including Emma Raducanu and Angelique Kerber.

However, the most exciting returnee could be Naomi Osaka who has won four Grand Slam titles, which means only Venus Williams has won more Slams as an active player on the Tour.

Iga Swiatek has joined Osaka with four Grand Slam titles, but it is potentially seriously exciting to have the Japanese player back playing competitive tennis.

She is still only 26 years old and becoming a mother may just have put her entire career in perspective- Naomi Osaka has struggled in the past with increasing expectations, but now she has someone to play for and that could make her a huge part of the Tour in the years ahead. There are young, new Challengers on the WTA that should get the competitive juices going, although Osaka will know her best tennis will take a little time to come together after spending as much time away as she has.

At least Osaka is in the draw- the excitement around Rafael Nadal's return to the Tour has just stalled after he was forced to withdraw from the Australian Open. He won a couple of warm up matches before picking up an injury, although the good news is that it is unlikely to keep Nadal out of action for too long.

In reality you just know the Spaniard is trying to find his best form and rhythm in time for the French Open in what may be his last year on the Tour and so Rafael Nadal has decided to not take any risks with his body. As a fan, I do hope Rafael Nadal is back in action next month and he can build up his fitness before the European clay court tournaments begin.

A strong finish at the ATP World Tour Finals was a positive way to conclude the 2023 season.

However, it was very much a mixed Grand Slam season and one that can be improved in 2024.

The Australian Open and French Open tournaments ended with winning numbers, but Wimbledon and the US Open were a disappointment. A couple of really rough days at the Masters events hurt the overall numbers, but the finish to the season means there is some momentum to take into the first big tournament of this calendar year.

Day 1 of the Australian Open Tennis Picks are to be played on Sunday as the event starts a day earlier than usual to ease the overall schedule and some of the ridiculous late finishes.

The decision has also been made to only have two matches on the show courts during the Day Session, although there are two matches in the Evening Session on the main courts. These could still lead to late finishes, although the hope is that they will start on time and that should allow them to be completed before getting into the early hours of the morning.

Time will tell as the tournament progresses, but for now you can see the opening First Round selections below.

Jannik Sinner - 7.5 games v Botic Van De Zandschlup: Reaching the Final of the World Tour Finals and helping Italy win the Davis Cup with some big performances wrapped up a very good 2023 for Jannik Sinner.

He reached a career best World Number 4 in October and Jannik Sinner earns his place in the Australian Open draw as one of the main contenders to Novak Djokovic's throne.

However, for all of the positives of 2023, Jannik Sinner will be really disappointed with his efforts at the Australian Open and US Open having failed to reach the Quarter Final of either of those Grand Slams. There is no doubting the qualities of his tennis and how effective Sinner is on the hard courts after a very strong record on the surface last year, but the Italian will be putting some pressure on himself to make sure he at least underlines his Seeding and earn a place in the Semi Final.

There are some tough matches to overcome before that and Jannik Sinner will not want to take anything for granted when facing Botic Van De Zandschlup who was on the brink of cracking the top 20 of the World Rankings in August 2022. It did not quite happen and Van De Zandschlup has slipped down to World Number 59, while he has had a relatively poor start to 2024.

All of that will be forgotten if Botic Van De Zandschlup is able to earn the upset in the First Round in Melbourne.

Over the last twelve months, Botic Van De Zandschlup has a 4-5 record against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts, although two of those wins were against Tommy Paul and another against Karen Khachanov. Despite the record, Van De Zandschlup only won 60% of his service points played and he struggled to have much of an impact on the return.

He will be dangerous and Botic Van De Zandschlup can beat the top names when playing his best tennis, but we have not really seen that consistently over the last eighteen months.

Now he has to face Jannik Sinner who has won twenty-seven or twenty-eight matches played on the hard courts against players Ranked outside the top 20. This is the record put together over the last twelve months and Sinner has held 91% of his service games and broken in 34% of return games in that run.

This is a considerable handicap mark to overcome, but Jannik Sinner can turn the screw once he likely gets a tough first set under his belt. He has the aggression and returning ability to break down Botic Van De Zandschlup game over the course of a couple of hours and Jannik Sinner can put a big statement win on the board as the Italian plays the first match on the Rod Laver Arena in 2024.

Novak Djokovic - 9.5 games v Dino Prizmic: There was some concern that Novak Djokovic had picked up a wrist issue at the United Cup, the main preparation tournament he was playing ahead of the Australian Open. He was beaten in one of the matches played in that event, but Djokovic has been playing in charity events scheduled by the Australian Open and the defending Champion looks good to go.

He is the clear favourite to win the Australian Open again having done so in 2023 and having won ten titles in Melbourne in total. He has actually won the Australian Open in four of the last five years and the only time Novak Djokovic was unable to pick up the title was when he was deported in 2022.

That was a controversial and difficult time, but Novak Djokovic has plenty of mental toughness and that has taken him back to the very top of the men's game and the Serb did win three of four Grand Slams last season.

The First Round has offered Novak Djokovic a battle of generations with an eighteen year old Qualifier first up.

Dino Prizmic deserves a lot of credit for rolling through three Qualifying Rounds having won six sets in a row, although he will know the huge challenge that faces him. Those wins have been against players Ranked at Number 126 or lower and that has taken the Croatian into his first Grand Slam main draw for the first time.

Novak Djokovic likely will know something about his opponent and there is that feeling that he will not want to embarrass Prizmic, but the World Number 1 will not want to be dragged into a tough match. He will know Dino Prizmic won the Junior French Open title last year and those three wins in the Qualifiers will have given the youngster plenty of confidence and belief.

Over the last twelve months, the Croatian has a 2-4 record against top 100 Ranked players on the hard courts, but Dino Prizmic will know that this is going to be a huge learning experience for him.

We have to expect Djokovic to give a serious examination of the serve- this is a weakness for the younger players coming onto the Tour and trying to take on some of the more established players. Dino Prizmic will know that he is facing the best return player of all time and the expectation is that he will be under pressure on this side of his tennis, while you cannot underestimate the chances of nerves being a serious factor in the match.

The Champion will be looking to make things as comfortable as possible, but Novak Djokovic also has a couple of days rest coming up, assuming he does progress. That may mean he is willing to try one or two things on the court, but Novak Djokovic has also been able to dominate these early Round matches on the hard courts.

In fact he would have covered this handicap mark in sixteen of the last twenty-two First Round matches played at either the Australian Open or US Open. Novak Djokovic would have covered a handicap of this margin in five of the last six First Round matches played in Melbourne alone and the World Number 1 can open the Evening Sessions on Rod Laver Arena on Day 1 of the Australian Open with a big win.

Andrey Rublev - 8.5 games v Thiago Seyboth Wild: The early Rounds of Grand Slams is all about trying to get through to the next Round with the minimum of fuss.

This will be the aim for Andrey Rublev, who has already won a title in Hong Kong in 2024, when he faces an opponent who spends the majority of his time on the clay courts.

Thiago Seyboth Wild did reach a career best World Ranking in September, but he is just 4-10 on the hard courts over the last twelve months. He did win the first set against Hubert Hurkacz at the United Cup earlier this month, but Thiago Seyboth Wild was well beaten by the end of that match and also was dismissed by Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in that tournament.

It does mean the Brazilian has lost all ten matches played on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents and Seyboth Wild has not been effective on the return of serve. That has increased the pressure on being able to serve well enough to contain the top players, but it has not been the case for Thiago Seyboth Wild and he will do well to keep Andrey Rublev from largely dominating this match.

He has suffered three losses to players from outside the top 50 on this surface over the last twelve months, but Andrey Rublev's overall numbers in the fifteen matches played against such players are impressive.

The serve is an effective weapon, but it is Rublev's aggression on the return which has really proved to be the key in those matches and he can put Thiago Seyboth Wild on the back foot in this one.

A wide handicap mark has to be respected, but Andrey Rublev should be able to find the breaks of serve needed to make sure he can move through with relative comfort. He can be a little hot-headed at times and perhaps get a little too frustrated, but this should largely be a match that Andrey Rublev can dictate on his racquet and he should be able to cover here.

Frances Tiafoe - 2.5 games v Borna Coric: One of the standout matches from the First Round looks to be this one between Frances Tiafoe and Borna Coric, but it is something of a surprise that the American is not considered a bigger favourite.

He has not been at his best since the US Open Quarter Final loss, but Frances Tiafoe has been operating at a higher level than Borna Coric over the last twelve months.

Injury has been a major factor that has worked against Coric, and he had been away from the Tour for a few months before returning at the United Cup. He showed flashes of his old form when going 1-1, but Borna Coric was well beaten by Casper Ruud and this is another considerable test.

Frances Tiafoe has room for improvement after winning one and losing one in Hong Kong in preparation for this event. Serving well is always the key as far as the American goes and over the last twelve months it has been important for Frances Tiafoe who has been able to hold 85% of the service games played on the surface.

Neither of these players have been returning at a high level, but Frances Tiafoe has an edge in that department and the feeling is that he can avoid the upset and find a way to battle through in four sets.

Their sole previous match was won by Borna Coric, but that was back in 2018 and the improvements made by Frances Tiafoe should see him level their personal series.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 9.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Francisco Cerundolo - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

JJ Wolf - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2019 (January 14th)

The Australian Open Grand Slam begins in just the third week of the new Tennis season and I do understand those out there who would prefer to see this tournament pushed back a couple of weeks.

Personally I don't mind the spot as it gets every new season off with a bang and there are a number of contenders who will be looking to begin 2019 with the first Grand Slam safely locked away. I have written a few words about Andy Murray as well as both the Men's and Women's Tournaments in Melbourne which can be read here.

Monday could be the last time we see Murray on a tennis court as he is set to play his First Round match against Doha Champion Roberto Bautista Agut, but I would not be stunned to see the British player will his way to a couple of wins in this draw. I hope that it will be possible for him to do that, but all eyes in the United Kingdom will turn to that match that is set to go at 7am Monday morning in our time zone.


I've only had two picks through the first two weeks of the 2019 Tennis season but I have been very much looking forward to the start of the Australian Open. Last season I started pretty badly with a poor first three months of the season so I am looking for much better at the Australian Open this time and a chance to build on what was ultimately a winning season for the Tennis Picks in 2018.

Day 1 sees the bottom half of both the men's and women's draws get underway so there are a lot of First Round matches to come over several hours.

I should have Day 2 Picks ready to go earlier than this thread for Day 1 and will update the threads whenever the Picks from a single day are completed.

Like last season, I will break down some of the matches and add the remaining Picks to the 'MY PICKS' section below.

Happy Slam Day.


Grigor Dimitrov - 9.5 games v Janko Tipsarevic: A once strong career has been much more difficult for Janko Tipsarevic over the last few years as injuries have prevented him from really competing as much as he would have liked. He missed the entire 2018 season after ending 2017 after the US Open and for a little while it sounded like the Serbian player would have to call time on his career.

Instead there was some positive news in December after yet another surgery and Tipsarevic announced he would return to the Tour on a Protected Ranking to play at the Australian Open. Playing the first competitive tennis for almost eighteen months is going to be very challenging for Tipsarevic and the conditions will sap energy that much quicker which makes it very difficult to imagine he stays competitive throughout this First Round encounter.

He does have a good record against Grigor Dimitrov from their previous meetings, but the last of those was some time ago now and almost certainly irrelevant to how the two players will feel going onto the court.

2018 was not a very good year for Dimitrov who was expected to use the win at the ATP World Tour Finals at the end of 2017 to take the next step in his career. Personally I think his window to win a Grand Slam tournament may have closed already, and some of the Dimitrov numbers on the hard courts were very worrying in the last twelve months which suggests he could be in decline already.

A Quarter Final to open the 2019 season will help the confidence, but Dimitrov was a player I was looking to avoid/oppose early in the tournament until this draw was made.

I would expect one set to be pretty competitive because Tipsarevic always had talent, but Dimitrov showed better signs on the return of serve in Brisbane and one of his better tournaments last year came at the Australian Open. I can't imagine how Tipsarevic will be able to maintain his levels throughout this one and once he dips Dimitrov should have the opportunities to produce a couple of clear set wins.

It is a big number, especially for someone who hasn't played to a strong level for some time now, but I will back Dimitrov to cover this one at odds against.


John Isner - 1.5 sets v Reilly Opelka: 2018 was a memorable year for John Isner in terms of results as he reached the Wimbledon Semi Final and earned enough Ranking Points to reach the ATP World Tour Finals for the first time too. However it should be noted that his underlying numbers are perhaps not as strong as they once were and that makes him a top 10 Seed who might not reach the expected Round.

In saying that I would expect Isner to be able to beat his compatriot Reilly Opelka whose game has to be modelled on what Isner has been able to achieve. Opelka is a tall player with a booming serve, but the return leaves a lot to be desired and he will have to improve on that side of the ball if he is going to make the same impact in his career as Isner has made in his.

Unlike Isner, Opelka spends a lot more time in Qualifying and Challenger tournaments rather than playing on the main Tour. He is someone who is going to want to look after serve and then look for one or two big returns to find a way to success, but that is exactly the formula that Isner has mastered at a much higher level.

Two years ago Opelka did almost stun David Goffin in his sole hard court Grand Slam match when taking the Belgian to five sets here in Australia. That will be in the mind of the American, but his overall numbers on the hard courts are just a little inferior to Isner in both serve and return departments and I would expect the older player to have the edge.

John Isner did lose in straight sets to Taylor Fritz in Auckland last week, but Fritz may have a little more on the return than Opelka and I would think it is Isner who finishes with the better returning numbers in this match. Whenever a match has the potential for one or two tie-breakers it can need very little to swing a match in one direction or the other, but I do think Isner can win this match in three or four sets.

It might not be the prettiest match of the day unless you love seeing very short rallies, but that won't bother Isner who is simply looking to progress to the Second Round as soon as possible and with as little energy expended as needed.


Tomas Berdych - 1.5 sets v Kyle Edmund: A number of veteran players have had to deal with injuries in recent years and Tomas Berdych was another who decided to end his 2018 season in June.

The return to the Tour came in Doha where Berdych showed he is back and ready to compete after reaching the Final in that tournament. Now he is set as the favourite to beat Kyle Edmund who reached the Semi Final at the Australian Open twelve months ago, but generally did not have a great time on the hard courts.

The British Number 1 will be earning a lot more headlines in the months ahead if Andy Murray does indeed play his last match at the Australian Open, but Edmund has not been fully healthy in the lead up to the first Grand Slam of the season. A surprisingly early defeat in Brisbane won't have given him much of a confidence boost and Edmund will need Berdych to be off his game to have a chance to defend the huge amount of Ranking Points he earned here last season.

Kyle Edmund will need to serve well to give himself a chance and for the most part that side of his game does work well. He has continued to hold at a high percentage and Tomas Berdych will know the returning element of his own game has been in decline for some time so the Brit has every chance of the upset.

However Berdych was serving very well in Doha and he did look a lot more comfortable with his game when reaching the Final there. In general Berdych's service numbers had been in decline for some time before he decided to end his 2018 season prematurely so it will be interesting to see how that part of his game works in the coming days, although the fitness edge may be given to the veteran in this very intriguing First Round match.

In the conditions those fitness issues could really come to the fore and I think Berdych backs up his performance in Doha with a win in three or four sets.


Alex de Minuar - 8.5 games v Pedro Sousa: The new Australian hero Alex de Minuar won his first title on the ATP Tour in Sydney last week and he has been backed by Lleyton Hewitt to have a strong showing at the Australian Open. Many have compared de Minaur and his work ethic to that of Hewitt who literally got every ounce out of his potential throughout his career and I do think the youngster is one who will do the same.

While not as talented as the likes of Bernard Tomic and Nick Kyrgios, de Minuar looks to be much more grounded and willing to put in the hard yards to maximise the talent he has. There is definitely something there, but, like Hewitt, de Minaur will have to try and out-hustle opponents and I do wonder if the firepower of some of the other players on the Tour may be too much for him.

That is really a question for another day though and I think de Minaur can back up his win in Sydney by progressing through to the Australian Open Second Round. The opponent in the First Round is very much a player who has specialised on playing clay court tennis an Pedro Sousa has managed to improve his Ranking to the point of earning an automatic entry into the main draw.

Sousa has taken that entry seriously be trying to Qualify for tournaments in Pune and Sydney prior to this one in Melbourne, but both times he has been beaten fairly comfortably in the First Qualifying Round.

The Portuguese player simply has not served well enough to keep players from putting him under pressure on this surface and breaking back is not really something he can expect to do regularly. Now he faces de Minuar who showed strong serving on his way to the title in Sydney and the energy on the return should mean the home favourite is going to progress with some comfort.

Despite playing many matches at a level below the ATP Tour on the hard courts, Sousa's hold percentage is under 70% and I think de Minaur will be able to win this one in straight sets and with enough breaks of serve to cover the number.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 9.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
John Isner - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alex de Minaur - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 8.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dan Evans - 1.5 Sets @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anett Kontaveit - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

NFL Play Off Picks 2018- Divisional Round (January 13-14)

And then there were eight.

The NFL 2017 season is fast approaching it's conclusion and we are now down to just seven games left to determine the Super Bowl winner.

It's funny- when the season begins in early September it feels like it is a long road to the Super Bowl, but before you know it we are deep into the Play Offs and there are not many games left to go.

The final eight teams in the Play Offs look like they could produce some fireworks once we get to the Championship Round and the Super Bowl, but the Divisional Round looks a little underwhelming like the Wild Card Round did.

Now I am not sure if that is down to two underdogs prevailing last week, because the Atlanta Falcons were one and look a really dangerous team at this moment, or whether the 12 teams who began the Play Offs were not as good as their records indicated.

The Buffalo Bills, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs didn't leap off the page, while key injuries have hurt the Philadelphia Eagles to the extent that they are the home underdog in the Play Offs. That is the first time the Number 1 Seed has been set as the underdog in the Divisional Round which shows how much of an impact the loss of Carson Wentz has on that team.

Blake Bortles and Case Keenum are not the most fashionable of Quarter Backs but they are riding two very good Defensive units in Jacksonville and Minnesota and all in all it does feel like the games are not as good as you may expect in the Divisional Round of the Play Offs.

Of course I could be wrong and we get four fantastic games over two days this weekend.


Last week the Wild Card Round Picks went 2-2 after opening with two wins on Saturday and falling down twice on Sunday. It was a frustrating Sunday with the Jaguars holding Buffalo to just 3 points and still not being able to get over the number, while the New Orleans Saints seemed to be in control of their game with the Carolina Panthers until the final six minutes when they gave up a long Touchdown pass to Christian McCaffrey and then saw the Panthers driving for the win inside the final two minutes.

A little more luck would be nice on a weekend where the four underdogs all covered against the spread.

Onto the Divisional Round Picks.


Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: A few weeks ago this could easily have been the best game in the NFL Divisional Round of the Play Offs with the Super Bowl Runners Up Atlanta Falcons picking up some real momentum before heading into Philadelphia to take on the Number 1 Seed Eagles.

The second Carson Wentz went down with an injury that is going to keep him out of action for several months the naysayers about the Eagles chances to reach the Super Bowl came out in force. Wentz has been a huge bonus at Quarter Back for Philadelphia and the drop off to Nick Foles has become more apparent in each passing start from the latter.

Any hopes that Foles could repeat what he did for Chip Kelly a few years ago have all but disappeared and it has led to the Eagles being the first Number 1 Seed to be set as the underdog in the Divisional Round of the Play Offs.

You have to imagine the entire Philadelphia organisation are going to be well aware they have been set as the underdog and the 'no one believes in us' mentality could put them in a good place. They are facing a team who have had to travel to the West Coast to win a Wild Card Game against the Los Angeles Rams seven days ago and the Eagles are well rested to at least give the Atlanta Falcons all they can handle.

However it is difficult to know how the Eagles will be able to compete unless their Defensive unit produces their best game of the season.

The Eagles have only allowed 16 points across their last two regular season games which will offer encouragement, but this Atlanta Offensive unit looks to be rounding into close to the form which took them all the way to the Super Bowl last year. Philadelphia have to win at the line of scrimmage and prevent the Atlanta Falcons from establishing the run and that certainly looks like something they will be capable of doing which will give the Eagles every chance of keeping the Falcons in third and long situations.

Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman won't be completely shut down if they are not able to run the ball as they would like as both are very good pass catching Running Backs that can find ways to influence games. However they won't be expecting a lot of room up front as the Atlanta Offensive Line have struggled to open the big running lanes without holding onto Defensive players in recent games, and so both Freeman and Coleman will have to help Matt Ryan as a safety blanket in the passing game.

Atlanta's Offensive Line has not only struggled to open up the run, but they have had some tough times preventing the pass rush from getting to Ryan. That has to be a concern for the Falcons as they won't want Ryan throwing from third and long and with a bunch of pressure around him, but there are holes in the Secondary that the Quarter Back could exploit.

Steve Sarkisian has to produce a game plan that sees Atlanta come out throwing and perhaps that is the best way to open up the run for their solid Running Back duo. With the Eagles having a few issues in the Secondary, Atlanta have the Receivers to win their battles and move the chains through the air, although Matt Ryan will have to look after the ball against a ball-hawking Secondary that thrives on turnovers.

It might mean the Falcons are settling for more Field Goals than they would like, but Dan Quinn has to be comfortable with that considering how well his Defensive unit played last week against the powerful Los Angeles Rams Offense.

There has been a definite improvement by Atlanta Defensively since the injuries have begun to clear up and they have not allowed more than 23 points in any of their last seven games. Holding the Rams to 10 points is very impressive and this is a team who will dare Nick Foles to beat them by making sure they contain the triple team Running Backs that the Philadelphia Eagles will trot out to the field.

The Eagles have had a little more difficulty running the ball since Wentz went down as Foles does not command the same respect as the former Number 2 overall Draft Pick. I imagine the Atlanta Falcons will also play their Linebackers and Safeties a little closer to the line of scrimmage to force Foles into having to throw the ball or at least keeping Philadelphia in third and long spots.

It does feel like Atlanta will be successful doing that now they have more faith in a Secondary that is playing up to the talent level they have. With Foles struggling to get through his reads, he is also likely going to be put under pressure by a solid Philadelphia pass rush when he does drop back to throw the ball, while the other concern is that Foles is not as accurate with his passes and the Falcons have shown they can turn the ball over in their last few games as they moved into Play Off mode.

That seems to give the Falcons the edge on both sides of the ball with more faith in Matt Ryan to make big plays from the Quarter Back position than Nick Foles. There could be a few big plays by the Defensive units as both teams will likely need to take to the air to move the chains, while Sacks are also likely to play a big part in the eventual victory.

I am expecting that victory to come down in the favour of the road favourites who look to be in a much better shape than the Eagles at this moment of time. If Carson Wentz played it would feel a totally different game, but Nick Foles has gotten worse and worse over his three starts and I don't think there is enough time to really get him straightened out.

I wouldn't be surprise if Foles makes an unexpectedly good start to the game, but Atlanta can make the adjustments and turn this game back in their favour. A home underdog in the Play Offs would usually widen the eyes, but the Eagles look in an incredibly tough spot and I would be happy to lay the Field Goal worth of points in this one. It is possible you will be able to find a few 2.5 spreads which is clearly the better way to go, but I feel comfortable in believing the Falcons come back and win by around a Touchdown in the first Divisional Round Game of the weekend.


Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots Pick: After a story came out on ESPN that the New England Patriots were being split by a feud between Robert Kraft/Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, some may have been wondering whether the Patriots were about to implode. Those thoughts should have quickly been moved on when thinking this disarray happened in the midst of another season where New England have finished with the Number 1 Seed in the AFC and they are a big favourite in this Divisional Round Game.

The Patriots likely think the Tennessee Titans did them a big favour by coming back from 18 points down to beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the Wild Card Game last Saturday. The Chiefs look to have matched up pretty well with New England and had already blown them out at Foxboro in the regular season, although either way I could only see the Patriots as a big favourite to win whoever they faced.

Tennessee have confirmed that Mike Mularkey is going to return as Head Coach in the 2018 season, although some issues behind the scenes means it is not guaranteed that the Head Coach himself will agree in the off-season. Mularkey has been criticised for much of the season and would have been fired if the Titans had lost last week so he can be grateful to the huge comeback win as Tennessee almost backed into the post-season.

It is a huge ask for the Titans to now come into Foxboro and beat the Patriots and the layers agree with a big number on the spread. The Titans have been an Offensive unit that have been accused of being a little bland with their approach as they try and dictate things behind a strong running game, but DeMarco Murray looks set to miss out again.

Derrick Henry showed with a couple of big runs that he is more than capable as the starting Running Back, but he is going up against a New England Defensive unit that have improved against the run. Bill Belichick would have made note of the way the Titans played last week and I think the Patriots will make sure that Henry is not able to pick up some momentum and then force Marcus Mariota to try and make special plays again from the Quarter Back position.

Mariota did what he needed to do last week, including a huge block for the final run of the game from Henry which iced the game for the Titans. However he is now facing a Belichick Defensive unit who will try and bamboozle him, while playing from third and long all evening is not going to be what the Tennessee Titans will want to see.

The Quarter Back can make some plays with his arms and legs, but this New England Secondary is far more talented than the one Mariota just dissected in Kansas City. They also have a much better pass rush which should move the Quarter Back off his spots and a Secondary will be looking to make some big plays to turn the ball over which could mean a tough day in the office all around for this Tennessee Offense.

That does not look to be the case for the New England Patriots despite the drop off from Tom Brady at Quarter Back over the last few weeks. It is something to keep an eye on, especially at Brady's age, and it is entirely possible we may be seeing the first signs of a decline from the future Hall of Famer.

An article pointing out the similarities with Peyton Manning's end of career really shines a light on the recent Brady numbers, but this is a big chance to show there is plenty left in the tank. The Patriots will certainly want to see that having decided to trade away Jimmy Garoppolo during the regular season, and Brady is facing a Tennessee Secondary that has struggled mightily to stop the pass.

The Titans have a decent front seven, but it is also possible to run the ball effectively against them and New England won't shy away from the run like the Kansas City Chiefs did last weekend. The Chiefs decision is all the more baffling when you think they were leading by 18 points at half time, but the Patriots are a team that likes the balance running the ball gives their Offensive unit and I think they can have success establishing the run.

Of course that is also important to negate the pass rush which has been rattling Brady more than you would think in recent games. Running the ball will just give him slightly more time and Brady has shown throughout his career that he is able to dissect the Dick LeBeau Defensive unit that he will see on Saturday.

Brady's numbers against LeBeau Defenses makes for great reading for the Patriots and he is 6-2 against his teams since 2004. That includes a blow out win in the Play Offs as New England hung 41 points on LeBeau's Defense and I think there are big holes in the Tennessee Secondary that can be exploited by the Quarter Back with the assumption that recent form is temporary and Brady's class remains at a high level.

He has Receivers who can take the top off the Defense through Brandin Cooks, while Rob Gronkowski is a player that the Titans will struggle to have an answer for. It feels like the Patriots will be able to do much of what they like and that will put the pressure on Mariota and the Tennessee Titans to try and play keep up.

Ultimately I think they will be unsuccessful in doing that and I like the Patriots to find a way to pull away for a big win. Mariota will make good looking plays at times, but I can see a couple of back breaking turnovers which sees New England pull away and then cover what is a very big number for a Divisional Round Play Off Game.

Since losing in the Divisional Round to the New York Jets in 2011, New England have won six straight games in this Round. Blow outs have not been uncommon with four of those wins coming by 13 points or more and three of them by at least 18 points including last season against the Houston Texans.

With Tennessee on back to back road games, I think the Titans will be forced out of their comfort zone as they move away from the run in a shoot out. That should be the difference maker in the game and I like the New England Patriots to win and cover in this Divisional Round Game.


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: The big question going into this Divisional Round Play Off Game is whether or not the Jacksonville Jaguars can suffocate the Pittsburgh Steelers as they did in a 30-9 win in Pittsburgh during the regular season? While both teams will point out the 'evolution' of the teams since then, the Jaguars continue to rely on the Defensive unit that absolutely hammered Ben Roethlisberger that day, including 5 Interceptions and two of those going back to the house.

It has placed some intrigue into this Divisional Round Game after the Jaguars took care of business in the Wild Card Round with a 10-3 win over the Buffalo Bills. The Defensive unit were dominant and made up for a skittish performance from Blake Bortles and this is a team who won in Pittsburgh despite of Bortles once already this season.

Barring an unlikely Super Bowl win, Jacksonville have some big questions to answer about Bortles and whether they should move for another Quarter Back via Free Agency or a trade in the off-season. You do feel the Jaguars are a competent Quarter Back away from perhaps being the team to beat in the AFC, but for now it is Bortles who will hold the keys to the Offense.

Jacksonville will just be asking from a clean performance from Bortles and instead rely very much on their ability to run the ball. Keeping Bortles in a position where he doesn't have to force plays could be critical for the Jaguars, but I do think the Offensive unit have a better chance of moving the chains consistently this week than they did against the Bills last week.

For one I expect a less nervy performance from Bortles who was making his first Play Off start a week ago. The Jaguars are also facing a Pittsburgh Defensive unit that have not looked the same since Ryan Shazier went down with a scary looking injury and the absence of one of the best Linebackers in the NFL has been felt.

That has impacted on the running game and Pittsburgh may struggle to contain Jacksonville on the ground which should open things up for Bortles and also put the Jaguars in a position for the upset. There is a chance that the Steelers will sell out to stop the run and rely on their Secondary to win their battles with the Jacksonville Wide Receivers and this is going to be a key to the game.

Stopping the run will allow Pittsburgh's pass rushers to really get after Bortles who may have to rely on his legs to scramble for a few First Downs himself. Keeping Bortles in obvious passing situations will also be a big test for a Quarter Back who never seems that far away from throwing a critical Interception, which may be underlined against a Pittsburgh Secondary who have been able to make some big plays through the air.

However it does feel that Jacksonville can have some success controlling the clock and churning out yards on the ground as long as this game is close. With the Defensive unit they have, the Jaguars will certainly feel like they can remain in this game and have every chance of the upset, but they will be challenged by a Pittsburgh Offense that will want to make amends for the blow out loss at home to this same team earlier in the season.

Roethlisberger and Le'Veon Bell are in better shape than when these teams met earlier in the season, while JuJu Smith-Schuster has made a real impact at Receiver for the team. With Antonio Brown back in practice, the Steelers may feel they have a much better Offensive unit than the one that played the Jaguars earlier in the season.

Bell won't have an easy task in establishing the run against a Jaguars Defensive Line which has been much stouter since acquiring Marcel Dareus in a trade from the Buffalo Bills. They played well enough against LeSean McCoy last week too, but this time they are facing a healthy Running Back whose hesitation moves may just find a little more daylight than other teams have in recent weeks.

The Running Back is also a key player in the passing game with an ability to get open and make tacklers miss when Big Ben does look to him as the safety blanket. With Bell, Smith-Schuster and Brown in the Receiving positions, Roethlisberger should have more successes than in the defeat to Jacksonville earlier in the season and I think the Quarter Back is playing well enough to give this Jaguars Secondary some problems.

The battle at the line of scrimmage will be key as Pittsburgh's Offensive Line tries to contain the Jacksonville pass rush for long enough to give Roethlisberger the time to make his plays. Throwing under pressure will be difficult against a very good Jaguars Secondary, but Roethlisberger will also believe his Receivers can win their individual battles and allow him to make plays down the field.

Smith-Schuster's improvement could be a key to opening things up for the Steelers who also have Martavis Bryant capable of taking the top off the Defense. I do think Pittsburgh will have learned a lot from the defeat to Jacksonville earlier in the season and this Offensive unit can call the right plays to move the chains and get into a position to win the game.

It will certainly be a close one, and that may suggest taking the points with the road underdog is the way to go. However I don't believe this Jaguars team are capable of recovering if they fall a couple of scores behind as the Steelers Defensive unit can then get after Bortles and rattle him into making some big mistakes.

As well as Jacksonville have played Defensively, they will need all the chips to fall in their favour as they did when winning by 21 points here a few months ago. Roethlisberger has been playing much better now than he was then and I just can't see the Quarter Back imploding in the same manner as he did when first facing this Defensive unit.

Having seen them once is a big bonus and I think the Steelers are in much better shape now. I also just can't trust Bortles to help the Jacksonville Jaguars Offense score enough points to keep this one in hand and I am looking for Pittsburgh to cover a big number.

A small sample also shows a team scoring 10 points or fewer in a Play Off win have really struggled in the next Round. Two teams have done that before and both were beaten comfortably in the next Round and I am going to take the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover and make it a third favourite to win and cover in the Divisional Round of games.

Pittsburgh have been a strong home favourite in the Play Offs under Mike Tomlin and the revenge angle should have the players all focused to come out and produce a much more complete effort than the first game with the Jaguars.


New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: There are two Divisional Round Games to be played on Sunday which is a repeat of a regular season game and the second of those comes from Minnesota where the Vikings will host the New Orleans Saints. All the way back in Week 1 the Vikings beat New Orleans 29-19 at home, but a lot of things have changed since then.

That game was notable for Sam Bradford's three Touchdown passes and Adrian Peterson getting into an argument with Sean Payton on the sidelines. Bradford has been lost for the season at Quarter Back for the Vikings since then, while Peterson was traded away from the New Orleans Saints despite only being signed in the off-season.

Dalvin Cook was also the starting Running Back for Minnesota back in September, but he is another who has been lost for the season with an injury and so this Divisional Round Game does have a different feel.

The Minnesota Vikings actually come into the game as a bigger favourite than they were when the teams met in the regular season. That underlines how well the likes of Case Keenum and Latavius Murray have done when coming into the Minnesota team, while the Defensive unit may be the best in the NFL at all three levels.

Keenum has really enjoyed a career best year in Minnesota and he is sure to command some big money at the end of the season. Whether that will be here in Minnesota or elsewhere is yet to be seen, but there will be some pressure on Keenum who is making his first start in the NFL Play Offs this season.

Usually he would lean on the run to be established which can open things up in the passing game, but the Saints Defensive Line has stepped up their play in recent games. They held Carolina to 4 yards per carry which is impressive considering how much the Panthers have looked to dominate behind the run, and New Orleans dealing with a mobile Quarter Back like Cam Newton should mean they are ready for Keenum who is capable of scrambling for positive yards.

The Saints can then unleash what has been a very good pass rush that has improved outside of Cameron Jordan who is a star in the League already. Jordan and company should be able to get the better of the Minnesota Offensive Line in obvious passing downs and they will force Keenum to try and make plays outside of the pocket by collapsing the pocket effectively.

Keenum will feel there are areas for him to exploit too as the New Orleans Secondary have been guilty of giving up some big plays in their recent games. While much improved from last season, this is not a shut down Secondary and Keenum has weapons like Kyle Rudolph, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs who are capable of making big plays with the ball in their hands. Rudolph looks to be overcoming his ankle injury in time to take part in this game and the Vikings may need Keenum's arm at his best to move the chains down the field.

One aspect Keenum has to be aware of is that the Saints might give up big yards, but they are also capable of turning the ball over. Losing possessions to this New Orleans Offensive unit is not going to be the way to win the game and Minnesota have to play a clean game Offensively to make sure their Defensive unit can hold firm.

New Orleans will have to make some adjustments Defensively against a new look Minnesota Offensive unit, but they look like they are capable of matching up better this time around than in Week 1. However the Minnesota Defense will also feel they can make the adjustments against what is a more balanced Offensive team than the one they originally faced.

This time the Saints will look to feed their Running Back duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara to try and establish the run to open the pass. For much of the season Ingram and Kamara have been dominant, but the Minnesota Defensive Line is as good as it gets and I am not sure the Saints will have find any consistent running lanes in this one.

In recent games New Orleans have struggled to run the ball and instead they may need to use Ingram and Kamara in screens to try and open things up. Both are good pass catching Running Backs who are capable of making big plays in the open field, but it does feel this game is going to be similar to the Wild Card Game against Carolina with the Saints once again leaning on Drew Brees.

Brees is a Quarter Back with plenty of experience having won a Super Bowl before, and he has shown little sign of decline with his play from that position. He has been helped massively by the stronger running game employed by New Orleans, but showed last week that he can take a game on his shoulders and help the Saints to win through the air.

This week he is battling a better Secondary than the one he faced last week against Carolina, and it is going to be a big challenge for Brees to move the chains consistently with the pass. The Vikings pass rush is decent, but I don't think it will be a massive concern for Brees and the bigger worry is definitely going to be finding his Receivers in open space.

While the Panthers had some breakdowns in the Secondary, Minnesota have a strong set of Defensive Backs who will make it tough for New Orleans throughout this one.

Overall it does feel like this could be a lower scoring game than the layers expect. Picking a winner against the spread is difficult because I can make a case for both teams, but I am leaning ever so slightly towards the New Orleans Saints to cover, even in a backdoor situation as Minnesota play different coverages to help milk the clock in the Fourth Quarter.

My heavier lean is towards the 'under' being played in the total points market because I feel neither Defensive unit is going to give too much away. I feel both Defensive Lines can slow down the run which will make it tough for both Case Keenum and Drew Brees to throw the ball from third and long spots, and I would be surprised if either team scores more than 23 points in this one barring the Defensive units creating pick-sixes or fumbles returned to the house.

Minnesota are being backed by the sharp money with their superior Secondary likely to prove to be a difference maker, but I think the Saints will be in a position to win this game in the Fourth Quarter. I am concerned that the game goes into Overtime and scuppers the 'under' total points selection, but two Defensive units can show they are capable of shutting down the Offenses they face and I will look for a tight game in the final Divisional Round clash of the weekend.

MY PICKS: Atlanta Falcons - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 13 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 7 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings-New Orleans Saints Under 46.5 Total Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (January 13-15)

Damn the Cup games...

What a miserable week of Picks from the FA Cup and League Cup ties that have been played over the last nine days and let's just say I am more than glad the Premier League is back this weekend.

There are some big games to come over the weekend with the one garnering the most interest coming on Sunday at Anfield when Liverpool, minus Philippe Coutinho, take on Manchester City, who have yet to prise away Alexis Sanchez from Arsenal.

I have also written a short piece about Manchester United at the end of a tough festive period which can be read here.

Onto the picks which come from the Premier League games to be played between Saturday 13th January and Monday 15th January 2018.


Chelsea v Leicester City Pick: Back to back goalless draws in the two Cup competitions will not have made Antonio Conte very happy, but he has to at least be pleased Chelsea are creating chances. With the talent they have in the squad, it is only a matter of time before they are converting more of those and once again putting some momentum behind them.

They are lacking a little bit of that going into the weekend having drawn 3 games in a row in all competitions, even if they did have chances to win all 3. A busy January is not helping their cause with the addition of a FA Cup Replay in the calendar, but defensively Chelsea have begun to show their mettle again.

The Blues have now kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 6 games in all competitions and also in 4 of their last 5 at Stamford Bridge. That will always give Chelsea a chance to win games and I do think they can expose the defensive issues Leicester City are having now they are missing both Danny Simpson and Wes Morgan from the backline.

Leicester City can point out back to back clean sheets, but Huddersfield Town and Fleetwood Town do not pose the same threat as this Chelsea team. A little confidence has to have been lost with their last 2 away Premier League games both ending in losses despite Leicester City taking the lead in both, and Leicester City have conceded at least twice in 3 of their last 4 on their travels in the League.

The Foxes have conceded at least twice in all 3 away games played against the ‘big six’ in the Premier League this season and I think they could be coming against Chelsea at the wrong time.

To be fair to Leicester City they are rarely beaten by a big margin and only 3 of their 8 League defeats have come by more than a single goal margin. However I think the defensive issues combined with Chelsea due to give someone a going over might produce the ‘perfect storm’ for Chelsea to win this one by a couple of goals on the day.

3 of the last 4 at Stamford Bridge between these two teams have ended in comfortable Chelsea wins and I will back them to get back to winning ways and cover the Asian Handicap this week.


Crystal Palace v Burnley Pick: Both Crystal Palace and Burnley exited the FA Cup in the Third Round last weekend, but I imagine only the hosts of this fixture are happy about that. They can now concentrate on their relegation battle, while Burnley already have 34 points on the board which would have meant an FA Cup run could have been taken seriously.

They are where they are though and Sean Dyche won’t want his players to slow the momentum as they try and finish as high as possible in the Premier League table. A poor festive period has come as they faced some of the toughest teams in England, but Burnley have remained difficult to beat.

A late Liverpool winner was needed to win at Turf Moor, but Manchester United failed to beat Burnley at Old Trafford and the visitors have drawn their last 3 away games in the League.

Burnley have to feel they can take advantage of the host of injuries Crystal Palace have suffered in defensive areas, although goals have been a bit of a problem for the side. That will be helped by the defensive issues Palace have as well as the fact that Roy Hodgson’s men will have targeted this fixture for a win which may give Burnley more spaces to exploit.

On the other hand Crystal Palace may feel attack is the best form of defence in this game and they still have quality in the final third which could cause problems. Scoring goals has not been an issue for Crystal Palace, unless they are being asked to do that from a penalty situation, and they have been particularly effective at home.

Anyone who saw Brighton’s recent home game with Burnley will know you can create chances against one of the better defensive records in the Premier League and Crystal Palace have the players to do that.

Losing 3 times in a row to Burnley has to play on the mind of the home players though and that puts me off backing Crystal Palace to win this game, despite my belief they can do that. At the moment Palace have needed two goals to win games with their defence having a few problems and the layers may have under-rated the chance of seeing three goals shared out here.

It certainly looks a big price at odds against when considering 7 of the last 8 at Selhurst Park have gone that way. Both teams had scored in 7 straight before the goalless draw with Manchester City too and I think the biggest danger here is the 1-1 draw.


Huddersfield Town v West Ham United Pick: This is a big game for both Huddersfield Town and West Ham United as they try to earn the points to move away from the bottom three and the winner is going to be feeling a lot more comfortable on Saturday evening.

However I imagine that knowledge is going to be a factor in this game and could produce a tense atmosphere where both David Wagner and David Moyes recognise how important it is to not lose this fixture.

That is also going to be noted by the fans and it could be tough for the players to really express themselves. It doesn’t help that both Huddersfield Town and West Ham United will be very well organised to prevent the other from picking up some momentum and I can’t imagine a lot of free flowing football and chances galore being created in this one.

A single goal could easily be enough to win this, but both Huddersfield Town and West Ham United have been playing plenty of tight matches at home/away respectively in recent weeks. The last 3 West Ham United away games have ended in draws, while the last 2 Huddersfield Town home games have done the same.

I think that could be the outcome on Saturday with the teams potentially cancelling one another out in a bit of snore-fest, but both managers would likely take a point, shake hands, and move forward at this stage of the season.


Watford v Southampton Pick: It is hard to really trust either of these teams to produce a win on Saturday when you think of their current form, but Watford and Southampton may surprise by producing a game that features at least three goals. These two will meet again in the FA Cup Fourth Round in two weeks time, but the focus is most definitely on this Premier League fixture.

Neither team has been defending that well in recent games which should give the attacking players more opportunities than they have had over the last month. It is hard to trust Southampton to produce in the final third with what has become a glaring problem in front of goal, but Watford’s defensive injuries should help them in this one.

On the other side of the field Watford have continued to pose problems for teams when they get forward even if they have slipped off their early season form. The Hornets have scored in their last 7 games at home in all competitions and the last 4 here have produced at least three goals shared out.

Even a goal-shy team like Huddersfield Town managed to score multiple times at Vicarage Road in a recent visit so Southampton’s problems in front of goal concern me a little less than usual. Defensively they can be a tough team to break down, but you have to think Mauricio Pellegrino plays a more forward thinking team with the need to put points on the board.

The 1-1 is perhaps the most dangerous outcome of this fixture, but Watford really only play in one way and can’t rely on their defence so should have attack on the mind. On the other side I would expect Southampton to continue to target three priceless points too.

Recent games between these clubs have seen three goals shared out in 7 of the last 8 between them at Vicarage Road including last season. At odds against backing at least three goals to be shared out here looks the call.


Tottenham Hotspur v Everton Pick: After an initial boost in confidence under the guidance of Sam Allardyce, Everton have just hit the rocks in recent games and 3 consecutive losses have just curtailed the progression being made. This transfer window is all about moulding the squad to suit Allardyce a little more, but the key is to remain focused on the pitch.

The arrival of Cenk Tosun is supposed to fill the glaring hole that was left when Romelu Lukaku moved to Manchester United in the summer. While he has scored goals in the Champions League for Besiktas, Tosun may need a couple of weeks to understand the pace of the English game.

That could mean another strong defensive shape set out by Sam Allardyce to prevent Tottenham Hotspur getting the space they tend to enjoy. He would have seen West Ham United frustrate Tottenham Hotspur in a 1-1 draw at Wembley Stadium in their last Premier League game and I expect Allardyce will want to do the same.

However Everton have not looked watertight in their most recent games and face a Tottenham Hotspur team who can be relentless going forward. The clever moves that Manchester United put together really baffled Everton on New Year’s Day and I think Tottenham Hotspur can do something similar with Harry Kane in devastating recent form.

Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen are also showing signs of rounding into form and Tottenham Hotspur have enjoyed recent games against Everton.

I have no doubt that Allardyce can organise a team to be very difficult to beat, but Everton have just been a little out of form recently. They were outplayed by Manchester United for large parts of that fixture and a rested Tottenham Hotspur should be able to create enough chances to win this one by a couple of goals.

4 of their last 5 home League wins have come by at least a two goal margin and I expect Tottenham Hotspur to have enough to do that here.


Bournemouth v Arsenal Pick: The two ‘Super Sunday’ offerings from the Premier League look like they could provide plenty of entertainment this weekend with the first coming from the south coast.

Bournemouth and Arsenal both like getting the football down and playing plenty of passes, but both have similarities in looking decent enough going forward and pretty shocking at the back.

That was not in evidence in the Arsenal goalless draw at Chelsea on Wednesday, but they are missing some key players at the back. A Bournemouth team who have scored at least twice in their last 4 games overall and last 3 at the Vitality Stadium will feel they can break down this Arsenal defence when they get on the front foot.

On the other hand Arsenal have to believe they have the quality to create chances and score goals against a porous defence. Bournemouth have conceded at least twice in 6 of their last 7 overall and 3 of their last 4 at home and it would be a surprise if there are not a few goals shared out here.

Games between the clubs have produced plenty of goals with at least one side hitting three goals in each of their last 3 against one another. This season the game at the Emirates Stadium finished 3-0 in favour of Arsenal, but last season both League fixtures produced at least four goals and that could be the case again on Sunday.

5 of the last 7 Bournemouth games and 4 of the last 6 Arsenal games have ended with at least four goals produced. With two defences struggling and two teams who like to get forward matching up well enough, I am looking for at least four goals to be shared out by these teams on Sunday.


Liverpool v Manchester City Pick: The big game in the Premier League this weekend comes on Sunday afternoon as Liverpool host Manchester City in a battle between two of the top four.

Philippe Coutinho is not going to be involved for Liverpool having finally completed his move to Barcelona during the week, but the news that Mo Salah looks to be recovering from an injury has to be a boost for the fans.

It will be interesting to see how Liverpool try and make up for the loss of Coutinho, but this is a team who have given Manchester City some problems in recent years. That may be funny to read when you think Manchester City thumped Liverpool 5-0 at home earlier in the season, but that game was changed massively by Sadio Mane’s sending off.

Prior to that Liverpool had given as good as they got from Manchester City and I do wonder how the game would have gone without that sending off. Liverpool certainly have the pace in the forward areas to give this Manchester City backline fits, and the style the away team will look to play with should offer Liverpool opportunities on the counter attack.

Of course it is hard to imagine a scenario in which Manchester City don’t open up this Liverpool defence, even with the addition of Virgil Van Dijk to try and shore things up. Pep Guardiola will have his team probe for mistakes and the high press both teams employ should lead to quick opportunities.

Liverpool do look a big price as the underdog to produce a result here, but the two teams have fared differently in ‘big games’ so far which puts me off slightly. While Liverpool crushed Arsenal here, both Manchester United and Chelsea have left with a point while they have been beaten at Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur.

On the other hand Manchester City have beaten all five teams below them in the table, including wins at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford. I don’t believe Liverpool defend nearly as well as Chelsea and Manchester United, despite the home defensive records in the League, and those wins makes it hard to back Liverpool with a lot of confidence.

Having the start on the Asian Handicap is appealing, especially at a slightly bigger price than Manchester United were to avoid defeat against Manchester City at Old Trafford last month. It is a winner as long as Liverpool don’t lose the game and I think The Reds are capable of achieving a result, but the loss of Coutinho has to be considered and potentially has had a negative effect on the players.

So instead I will back at least four goals to be shared out by two attacking teams who should have the better of the defences they face. Both League games were tight affairs last season, but there were plenty of chances in the second of those that ended 1-1 and the game earlier this season looked to be very, very open before the Mane sending off.

I do think there will be chances at both ends in this one too and recent years have produced plenty of goals when Liverpool and Manchester City have met at Anfield. Prior to last season, 7 of 8 at Anfield had featured at least three goals shared out and 4 of those 7 had gone on to feature at least four goals.

Liverpool’s 15 game unbeaten home run against Manchester City and the fact they have beaten them 3 times in a row at Anfield will bring in Liverpool backers. I was almost tempted to go the same way, but I will instead look for at least four goals shared out in what looks a barnburner on paper.

The teams should match up well enough to produce the chances to get close to four goals shared out and the 2-2 draw looks a real player in this one.


Manchester United v Stoke City Pick: In an ideal world I would have loved to have seen Mark Hughes remain in charge for at least one more game for Stoke City- that is definitely coming from the Manchester United fan inside of me!

Realistically Stoke City had to part ways with a manager who seemed to have lost the players confidence and the side had been lurching from one bad result to another.

We have seen teams respond positively when a manger is sacked  and that is my only real concern from a fixture Manchester United should be winning. The injuries look to be clearing up and I do think the Manchester United players would have enjoyed getting out to Dubai for some warm weather training which should see a positive performance produced.

It has been a struggle at home in recent games, but I think Jose Mourinho will be happy with the options his team now have in the forward and midfield areas. Mourinho will have a chance to change things if it is not going right, but I would imagine Manchester United will be too strong for a Stoke City team who have been conceding goals for fun.

That may change with a new voice in the dressing room and Hughes gone, but I expect Stoke City will have to wait another week to show that. They did earn a 1-1 draw here last season, but Manchester United have generally been too good for Stoke City having won 13 straight at Old Trafford against them prior to that.

Goals have just dried up a little of late, but I expect a positive reaction from the Manchester United players to having had a chance to head to Dubai for a few days. They are also facing a Stoke City who have taken heavy losses against the likes of Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea of late and I expect Manchester United to do the same.

I will back the home team to cover a big Asian Handicap on Monday night and remain on course for a top four finish.

MY PICKS: Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Burnley Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.40 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town-West Ham United Draw @ 3.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Watford-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Arsenal Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.40 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Liverpool-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.40 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)