NFL Playoff Picks 2026- Wild Card Round (Saturday 10th January-Monday 12th January)

The NFL regular season has thrown up plenty of surprises in the 2025 campaign and so there cannot be too many raised eyebrows when it comes to the final fourteen teams who are taking part in the post-season.

Of course there are some big favourites that have been eliminated before the Playoffs have begun, but that won't be written in the history books when a Super Bowl Winner is decided in early February.

Pressure is on those that are still playing in January and that is because they may feel this is a small window that has opened up for success before some of the stronger teams bounce back next season. That especially feels the case for those involved in the AFC side of the Bracket, although whoever comes through is expected to be the Super Bowl underdog with the NFC teams looking stronger one through seven.

However, in saying all that, there have been so many surprising results from week to week this season that you cannot dismiss a few more happening over the next three weeks before the Super Bowl is actually set for San Francisco.

Picking a favourite is difficult, but the way my Bracket worked out saw the Denver Broncos facing the Philadelphia Eagles in the big game.

That could change very quickly and this has been the worst season for a number of seasons for the NFL Picks, which perhaps makes my predictions look all the weaker immediately anyway.

The Wild Card Round is played between Saturday and Monday and all of the selections are in this thread below.

For games where a selection has yet to be made, those will be added in the next several hours as Wild Card Weekend kicks off in Carolina and concludes in Pittsburgh over the next few days.

Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers Pick: After the San Francisco 49ers were beaten on Saturday in Week 18, an opportunity arrived for the Los Angeles Rams (12-5) to move into the Number 5 Seed in the NFC. That would mean beginning the post-season at the home of the NFC South Winners rather than facing the Philadelphia Eagles or Chicago Bears and a blowout win over the Arizona Cardinals saw the Rams move up into this Seeding position.

It was also important to snap a two game losing run before the Playoffs, although the Carolina Panthers (8-9) will ultimately have been thankful for one of those Rams losses.

If Los Angeles had beaten Atlanta in Week 17, the Carolina loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would have meant elimination for the Panthers and the Buccaneers hosting this Wild Card Game. They still needed the Falcons to win out against the New Orleans Saints to finally begin to think ahead to the post-season for the first time in almost a decade, but Carolina have made it and will believe this represents a 'new season.

They have to think that way after the Panthers closed the regular season with three losses in four games, including consecutive defeats.

One of those losses was to the Seattle Seahawks as Carolina were beaten by 17 points in the last game of the regular season, but the Panthers should not be intimidated by facing the Los Angeles Rams considering they upset this opponent in the regular season in November.

It was a day when one of the leading contenders for the regular season MVP, Matthew Stafford, was responsible for three turnovers and that was a decisive factor in what turned out to be a 3 point loss right in this Stadium. The Rams were 9.5 point favourites on that day, but the spread has actually moved another point in their favour despite the defeat and that is a number that will be very tough to cover.

Over the course of the season, the Rams have played well Defensively, but they struggled to find the right balance on this side of the ball in the loss to Carolina.

The key to beating the Panthers is stopping the run, but the Los Angeles Defensive Line have finished the season looking vulnerable and that is something that the home team are going to be wanting to expose. With a Quarter Back lacking Playoff experience, the Panthers will want to control the clock and tempo of this game, while also making sure Bryce Young is not feeling too much pressure trying to convert from third and long spots.

There has been plenty to like from Bryce Young this season after looking like a bust, but the young Quarter Back has still been inconsistent, while the Los Angeles pass rush will be looking to unleash if they can force the Panthers behind the chains. Being able to do that should help slow this opponent down, but the key is at the Line of Scrimmage and finding a way to clamp down on the rush.

Bryce Young did throw 3 Touchdowns without an Interception in the upset of the Rams earlier this season, but it may be tough to replicate that now that the Rams Secondary will be more ready to deal with what this Quarter Back can throw at them.

The Rams also have to expect veteran Quarter Back Matthew Stafford to have a much cleaner game all around and there will be a real feeling that Los Angeles can find plenty of balance on this side of the ball.

Running the ball will just make sure the passing lanes remain open, although it is clear that the Rams will go as far as Matthew Stafford can take them.

Importantly key players are returning for the Playoff push with Davante Adams back to give Stafford another big option in the passing game and that will aid the Rams who have to respect how the Carolina Panthers Secondary were playing to close out the season. They limited Baker Mayfield (twice) and Sam Darnold in the passing game in the last three games, but Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams are another big test and this is a team that have been very good at throwing the ball all season.

The Rams also have the experience edge and it should be noted that first appearances in the Playoffs for Quarter Backs have been hugely challenging- those that have been set as the underdog, like Bryce Young, are just 14-22-1 against the spread in this spot, while those Quarter Backs are also just 23-43-1 against the spread when facing an opponent with a Quarter Back that has played in the post-season previously.

Last season the Texans showed that a Head Coach/Quarter Back combination who are both making first appearances in the Playoffs in those current roles can overcome the recent trend as they were able to upset the Los Angeles Chargers, but the Texans were more talented than this Carolina team have looked.

At the same time, you cannot ignore some recent big trends that make it less appealing to back the Rams here- road teams that have won at least 11 regular season games were just 1-3 against the spread in the Playoffs twelve months ago, while underdogs have been very productive in recent NFC Wild Card Games.

Road favourites are just 8-13-1 against the spread in the Wild Card Games played since 2008, which is hard to ignore, while hosts have been in very good form in the Saturday Wild Card Games in recent years with this being a 'short week'.

You would still expect the Rams to find a way to win here, but it does make asking them to cover a bit more of a question, especially with the line where it is.

However, Los Angeles do look the right side and outright winners have tended to cover far more often than not in recent Wild Card Games.

Conditions could be difficult for the Los Angeles Rams with the chance of there being rain and wind, but they should still have too much for a Panthers team that backed their way into the post-season. Add in the motivation to make up for the road loss in the regular season and it should be a clear thinking Los Angeles team arriving in Charlotte for this opening Wild Card Game and the Rams can win well.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears Pick: Rivalry games will always come with extra attention, but a Divisional rivalry taking place in the post-season will go down in folklore for whichever team is able to come out on top.

The home team have won the last five times a Divisional rivalry has been played in a Wild Card Game, but the Chicago Bears (11-6) and Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) split two regular season games and will have a lot of respect for what the other brings to the field.

There is plenty of familiarity coming out of the fact that the Bears and Packers are meeting for the third time in six weeks and second time in four weeks at Soldier Field.

Both teams would have loved to have had more momentum- the Bears finished with the Number 2 Seed in the NFC, but have lost two in a row, while the Green Bay Packers have lost four in a row. Key players have not played for a while with Quarter Back Jordan Love taking snaps for Green Bay for the first time since being knocked out of the last game here at Soldier Field, while the starters were resting in Week 18 to make sure they can overcome all ailments ahead of this Wild Card Game.

The Bears were beaten in Week 18 right here by the Detroit Lions, but earned the Number 2 Seed after the Philadelphia Eagles were beaten on the same day and that means they have this tough looking Wild Card Game to open on their return to the post-season.

It has been a really good first season as Head Coach for Ben Johnson, while he will use his experience Coaching with the Detroit Lions in recent years to help his young group come together. The Offensive game plan has certainly worked for Quarter Back Caleb Williams in his second season in the NFL, but he is making his first start in the post-season and has to overcome some serious trends going against him.

Much like Bryce Young earlier in the day, Caleb Williams will know Quarter Backs making the first Playoff start are just 15-23 against the spread in those outing and a really poor 23-43-1 against the spread when facing an opponent with a Quarter Back that has Playoff experience.

It looks like Chicago will be going into this one as the underdog so Williams will also have to overcome the 14-22-1 record against the spread that those 'rookie' Playoff Quarter Backs have faced.

His performances on the field have to give the Chicago Bears a huge amount of confidence and they will also note that Caleb Williams is going to be facing a banged up Green Bay Defensive unit that have shown plenty of signs of having worn down.

This season the Bears made a real effort to give the Quarter Back time and he is playing behind an Offensive Line that have given him Caleb Williams time when he has dropped back to throw. That is helped by the ability Williams has in scrambling away from pressure and still keeping his eyes down the field, while the Chicago Offensive Line have been very happy when it comes to run blocking and this is an area where they should be able to pummel an injury hit Green Bay Defensive Line.

A tandem at Running Back should mean Chicago can keep legs fresh as they look to make sure Caleb Williams is kept in third and manageable spots, and from there it will be a chance for Williams to shine.

Rome Odunze looks like he will be suiting up to offer up more downfield threat and the Bears will be confident they can have Offensive successes with a balanced play-calling day. Of course they should watch out for Trevon Diggs who the Green Bay Packers have been able to sign after he was cut at the end of the season by the Dallas Cowboys, but there will be a confidence in Chicago that the home town team can produce on this side of the ball.

The tougher test may actually be when the Green Bay Packers have the ball.

In the last few weeks there had been some improvement shown by the Chicago Defensive unit as injuries began to clear up, but they were struggling to get off the field in the last couple of defeats.

Now they have to take on the Green Bay Packers team that will have Jordan Love at Quarter Back and a number of the key Offensive starters hoping to be much healthier with a couple of weeks of rest under the feet. Jordan Love had 234 passing yards with 3 Touchdown passes in the first game against the Bears and the Quarter Back had begun in decent shape in the game here at Soldier Field before being knocked out of the game with concussion.

Josh Jacobs should be feeling much better having had a number of injury issues at the close of the regular season and he is going to be an important figure for the Green Bay Packers- they should be able to use the Offensive Line to establish the run and that is going to be important for this team to make sure they strike a balance on this side of the ball that makes it tough to stop them.

It should also mean Jordan Love has enough time to move the ball down the field before the Chicago pass rush can get to him and there are plenty of skill players that can step up for the road team.

In his absence it has been tough for the Packers to throw the ball with the same consistency as when they have Love at Quarter Back, but the expectation is that the Chicago Secondary is going to have some problems getting on top of all of the Receivers that can be targeted.

Recent seasons have seen the underdog put together strong returns in the Wild Card Round, while road favourites have a poor record.

The Number 2 Seed has also been dominant in the Wild Card Round since the expansion of the NFL Playoff, while the Chicago Bears have won the most recent regular season meeting between these NFC North rivals.

However, you cannot ignore how many things had to go in the Bears favour at Soldier Field to earn the victory, including recovering an onside kick and seeing the Packers turn the ball over when driving in Overtime.

There really wasn't much between the teams in the regular season, but Jordan Love's Playoff experience may end up making the difference.

We should see plenty of points assuming the weather conditions do not worsen significantly, although it will be cold as expected in January Chicago weather.

Once all is said and done, the Green Bay Packers may be the team who can avoid those late game mistakes that cost them three weeks ago and they may just be able to force a mistake from a first time Playoff Quarter Back and come out on top in this good looking Wild Card Game.

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: The NFL Playoffs look incredibly competitive this season and you could feasibly make a case for any of the fourteen teams to win the Super Bowl next month.

The AFC Playoff picture has been opened up by the elimination of the likes of the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens, two teams that would have entered the season amongst the favourites to win it all.

One of the 'favourites' that will still be playing Football in January is the Buffalo Bills (12-5), but they failed to win the AFC East and that means the team has to head out on the road for at least the Wild Card Round. The Bills finished as the Number 6 Seed and they are a very narrow favourite to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) who won the AFC South in the first season under Head Coach Liam Coen.

After another inconsistent start to the season, the Jaguars won the last eight regular season games, which means they have the second longest winning streak in the NFL ahead of the Wild Card Round. The real credit has to be that the Jaguars have won those games under the pressure of being chased by the Houston Texans, who won nine games in a row, and that should mean Jacksonville are very much battle-hardened as they return to the post-season.

Head Coaches that are Coaching in the Playoffs for the first time are 10-6 against the spread in recent times under this situation and that should give Jacksonville belief, although it should be noted that they are facing a very experienced Buffalo team that have been so very close to reaching a Super Bowl.

However, the Bills will be disappointed that they have not quite been able to get over the line, while the standout statistic here is that Buffalo have not won any of the last nine road Playoff Games going back to 1992.

Quarter Back Josh Allen is absolutely the key to any success in January and February 2026 and he kept his streak of starts going when taking one snap in Week 18. However, Allen has been dealing with a foot issue and there is no doubt that the Buffalo Bills will need the Quarter Back to use his legs if they are going to find a way to win this Wild Card Game.

Running the ball in general is going to be key as Jacksonville will be hosting in unfamiliar conditions- instead of the warm weather that has been around, there is a forecast that this will be played in rainy conditions and that may mean teams are trying to pound the rock.

The Bills Offensive Line will be confident in being able to establish the run, although that will be very dependent on Josh Allen being able to scramble down the field. By having some of the Linebackers focusing on the Quarter Back, James Cook will end up having more spaces to exploit, but if Allen shows he is not quite at full health, the Jaguars may just believe the Defensive Line can force the Quarter Back to show off his passing ability.

Jacksonville have not really been able to pressure the Quarter Back, but the Secondary have played well and they should be confident that third and long spots will be difficult for the Bills to convert. Stopping Josh Allen completely is unlikely, but the Jaguars can feel they have won if the Quarter Back is not able to run as effectively as usual and has to rely on some of the Receivers to step up.

It is the injuries on the Buffalo Defensive unit that could be the real issue in this game and they may struggle to deal with what has become a balanced and effective Jacksonville Offensive unit.

Trevor Lawrence has played well and is capable of running the ball when needed, and it is a game in which the Jaguars Offensive Line can force spaces up front to keep the team in front of the chains. For much of the season, the Bills have been banged up and unable to stop the run with any consistency and the Jaguars are not going to shy away from pounding the ball against the Bills and making sure their own Quarter Back is kept in positive field position.

The arrival of Jakobi Meyers has been really important for the Jaguars and allowed Trevor Lawrence to display the passing that had encouraged this team to take him as the Number 1 Pick in the Draft.

To be fair to the Bills Secondary, they have produced decent numbers this season, but some of that is down to the issues they have had up front in stopping the run. Recent outings have been against teams that have not thrown the ball nearly as well as Trevor Lawrence has been during this eight game winning run.

There are plenty of recent general Wild Card Game trends that favour the Buffalo Bills, while the experience factor cannot be dismissed.

Oddsmakers are clearly anticipating a close game and it would be a surprise if that is not the case.

Josh Allen's health is a real concern for the Buffalo Bills, while there is also pressure on the team knowing that the likes of Kansas City and Baltimore are not going to stand in the way. That can be a hindrance at times and the Jacksonville Jaguars look balanced Offensively, which could end up proving to be the big difference between the teams on the day.

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: There is a belief that you want to be playing your best Football in January and so it was a surprise to see so many of the NFC Playoff teams losing in Week 18.

Both of these teams were beaten, although the San Francisco 49ers (12-5) will most certainly be feeling the pain more than most.

They went into a home game in Week 18 with a chance to not only win the NFC West, but a win would also have meant a Bye as the Number 1 Seed in the Playoff. Instead the 49ers slipped below the Los Angeles Rams and that means having to travel across the country and take on the defending Champions on their home turf.

It has been far from a vintage season for the Philadelphia Eagles (11-6), but they did comfortably win the NFC East and losing in Week 18 is not something that overly concerned the Coaching staff. You have to believe that facing the Green Bay Packers rather than either of the NFC West Wild Card teams was something that the Eagles actively tried to avoid by sitting the starters in Week 18 and they certainly will believe they match up best with the injury hit 49ers.

Take nothing away from the season that the 49ers have produced, but they were not exactly given the most taxing of schedules and San Francisco struggled mightily against the Seattle Seahawks last week.

One of the big injuries late in the season has been suffered by Trent Williams and there is no doubt that the San Francisco Offensive Line is not nearly as strong without him. Perhaps Williams will try and suit up, but he could be limited and the 49ers may not get too much change out of this Philadelphia Defensive Line that have played the run pretty well all season.

Christian McCaffrey can still be a factor having maintained good health, but the Running Back may be a big threat leaking out of the backfield and offering Quarter Back Brock Purdy a security blanket.

Brock Purdy was receiving plenty of plaudits for some of his late season play, but the entire Offensive unit struggled against the Seahawks in Week 18 and this Philadelphia Defense has been the strength of the defending Champions.

Without a strong running game to back him, Brock Purdy is going to be put under pressure by this Eagles pass rush and throwing against this Secondary from third and long will be asking a lot without the kind of Receivers San Francisco have had in recent seasons.

Those years would have also been at a time when the 49ers could rely on the Defensive unit to keep them in games, but to say they have been banged on this side of the ball would be a huge understatement.

Over the last couple of weeks, the Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks have given the Philadelphia Eagles the blueprint they need on the Offensive side of the ball- both teams have run the ball very well behind the Offensive Line and the Eagles and Saquon Barkley should be able to pick up from where those teams left off.

No one will suggest Barkley has been nearly as strong as last season, but the Eagles ended the regular season running the ball with more confidence and also have Quarter Back Jalen Hurts who is capable of moving the chains with his legs too.

This should make things pretty comfortable for Hurts when he does drop back to throw the ball downfield.

The 49ers Secondary has been exposed by the lack of a pass rush up front and Jalen Hurts will have plenty of time to target the likes of AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, while Dallas Goedert continues to make big plays when needed.

It has been an inconsistent season for the Eagles Offense, but this looks a 'get right' opportunity.

Number 3 Seeds have not been the best teams to back in recent Wild Card seasons, while NFC underdogs have been thriving against the spread.

This has to be noted, but in the last 34 Playoff Games involving a Road team that has more regular season wins than the host, the Home team have a 22-11-1 record against the spread.

Hosts are also 16-8 against the spread in the last four seasons of Wild Card action and this looks like a game in which the Philadelphia Eagles should be the stronger team by some margin on both sides of the ball. As long as the Offensive unit have a semi-decent outing, they should have too much for an injury hit visiting team that have overachieved this season.

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots Pick: Winning the AFC East and ending the dominance of the Buffalo Bills and securing the Number 2 Seed in the Conference means the New England Patriots (14-3) should be full of confidence. They have a Head Coach in Mike Vrabel who has had considerable success in the role with the Tennessee Titans, but who also understands what winning looks like in New England and this is a dangerous team.

However, the Patriots are going to have a first time Playoff Quarter Back in Drake Maye and it has been stated multiple times that those players have tended to struggle in the first starts in the post-season. That has been particularly evident when they have been opposed by a Quarter Back that has Playoff experience, and this is the situation for Maye and the Patriots when taking on the Los Angeles Chargers (11-6).

A Week 17 loss to the Houston Texans ended the Chargers hopes of finishing above the Denver Broncos in the AFC West and they rested all starters in Week 18 for the loss to the Number 1 Seed.

That won't matter and there are plenty of players in the Chargers locker room that feel that the week off between competitive games will have done them the world of good. One of those is Quarter Back Justin Herbert who has been playing through a broken hand on his non-throwing hand and who admitted that not being hit in Week 18 has helped him feel so much better.

All of his experience is going to be needed if the Chargers are going to upset the odds and beat the New England Patriots here in Foxboro.

For much of the season it has been Justin Herbert carrying the team on his back, but the Offensive Line has been decimated and it is very hard to win games consistently without the strong support up front. It has led to Herbert being under pressure all of the time and 54 Sacks backs up that statement as the Chargers look to head to New England with backup Tackles.

Trey Lance absorbed six more Sacks in relief of Justin Herbert last week, but having the starter back is going to help and the Chargers will certainly feel they can pummel the ball on the ground to at least keep the team in third and manageable spots. That should make things a bit more comfortable in the passing game, while the Chargers may believe they can control the pass rush at the Line of Scrimmage if they are pounding the rock with some success.

The real key is on the Defensive side of the ball where the Chargers have played well on season.

In particular the Chargers Defensive Line have really been able to clamp down on the run and they need to make sure they are able to at least give New England something to think about. The Offensive Line has been able to keep Drake Maye in third and manageable spots on the field, but it may not be as easy to do that against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Drake Maye has not been afforded a lot of protection when he has stepped back to throw the ball and so the Patriots need to make sure they are running the ball with some effectiveness.

The Quarter Back will have some holes to exploit in the Secondary, but this is a tough Los Angeles Defense and they can keep this one close against Drake Maye.

Nothing will be easy for the Chargers, but the experience of the Head Coach and Quarter Back can see them potentially pull off the upset.

MY PICKS: Los Angeles Rams - 9.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Philadelphia Eagles - 6 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Chargers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Week 18: 3-4, - 1.51 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.57% Yield)

Week 17: 5-6, - 1.45 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.18% Yield)

Week 16: 3-5, - 2.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.50% Yield)

Week 15: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 14: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)

Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 48-58, - 15.05 Units (106 Units Staked, - 14.20% Yield)

NFL Playoff Picks- Wild Card Weekend 2025 (Saturday 11th January-Monday 13th January)

The last week of the NFL season can be very tough to read with players and Coaches looking ahead to either the post-season or the off-season and that also means you get those funky plays and results.

Regardless, the regular season finished with a winning record and there are now fourteen teams left who will be thinking about winning the Super Bowl in New Orleans next month.

Two, the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs, will have their feet up and deserving to rest some battered bodies before the Divisional Round, but Wild Card Weekend looks pretty exciting with games played from Saturday through Monday.

The three AFC games are played first and we then move into the NFC Wild Card games, which do look stronger on paper. The spreads certainly expect the three NFC games to be a lot more competitive compared with the AFC games, but you never know with the Playoffs and this should be a fun Weekend.

Selections from the six Wild Card games can be read below.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans Pick: They have long looked set to win the AFC South, but the Houston Texans (10-7) suffered through a disappointing end to the regular season meaning they were left with the Number 4 Seed in the AFC. That does mean a home game on Wild Card Weekend and the Texans will be opening the Playoff in 2025, which is also something they have become accustomed to doing.

Consecutive losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens have perhaps underlined how tough it will be for the Houston Texans to have a big post-season impact, but they will certainly be motivated by being set as the home underdog in this Wild Card game.

The Texans host the Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) who are back in the NFL Playoff after missing out last season.

Jim Harbaugh deserves a lot of credit for turning around the fortunes of a team that finished with a 5-12 record in the 2023 season, although he was taking over a Chargers team that had plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. Still, the former San Francisco Head Coach and the man who led the Michigan Wolverines to a National Championship last year deserves his respect and also for the way that Harbaugh has Coached in the Playoffs in his previous time in the NFL.

There is no doubting that this Los Angeles Chargers team is dangerous and they have won three straight games to move past Denver and Pittsburgh into the Number 5 Seed in the AFC.

You have to hope that all the players and staff have evacuated families that are affected by the wildfires raging in Los Angeles and that is important so the focus can be placed on winning this game and moving on to the Divisional Round. That won't be that easy, but once the game kicks off, the Chargers should all be pulling in the same direction and they will certainly feel they can get the better of an injury hit Houston team.

The majority of those injuries have been suffered on the Offensive side of the ball and so the Chargers will still be tested when they are trying to find some consistency in driving down the field.

Jim Harbaugh would love to see his team establish the run, but the Offensive Line have suffered a couple of injuries and JK Dobbins is not quite at his ultimate best at Running Back which has made that more difficult. Over the course of the season, the Texans Defensive Line have played the run pretty well and this test at the Line of Scrimmage is going to be key with Houston looking to force Justin Herbert to beat them.

The Quarter Back is capable of doing that and he has looked much more like his old self in leading the Chargers to three straight wins- the passing numbers have really ramped up in those wins for Justin Herbert and he has been well protected when stepping back to test an opponent's Secondary.

He should be able to find one or two spaces in this Houston Secondary too, although the Texans are going to be fired up and have continued to play hard on the Defensive side of the ball to make up for the spark that has been missing when CJ Stroud and company have been driving.

It has been a tough season for CJ Stroud with both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell lost for the year and that has limited his passing options to Nico Collins. This has forced Houston to be more reliant on being able to run the ball through Joe Mixon to just keep the team on track to sustain drives and the problems with that were evident in the loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 17.

However, it should be noted that the Ravens Defensive Line have been elite against the run and that is not really the case for the Los Angeles Chargers. In recent games teams have been forced to move away from the run as the Chargers have pulled out into big leads, but Houston will certainly feel that Mixon can help establish the run behind their Offensive Line in this one and that should give CJ Stroud the time he needs to find his makeshift Receiving corps down the field.

Being in front of the chains can just slow the Chargers pass rush for long enough to help the second year Quarter Back produce another big show on Wild Card Weekend, although CJ Stroud is not expected to have consistent success against this Chargers Secondary if in third and long situations. His passing numbers have been severely impacted by the loss of two top Receivers to play along with Nico Collins and the Texans will have to rely on running the ball and strong Defensive play to earn the upset.

They can do that in front of the home fans and it should be noted that those teams playing at home on Saturday in the Wild Card Round of the Playoffs are on a 23-13-1 run against the spread.

Some will point out that Los Angeles have the better record, but those teams are just 11-18-1 against the spread in the last thirty tries when playing at the home of a team with fewer wins. The Number 4 Seed has also played well in the Wild Card Round in recent seasons and the feeling is that the Houston Texans match up pretty well with a Chargers team that have beaten Denver, New England and Las Vegas over the last three weeks and may be a touch over-rated.

Justin Herbert has been a very strong road favourite to back, but CJ Stroud has played well in the role of an underdog, which is a feature of a top Quarter Back. This is also the third road game in a row for the Los Angeles Chargers and that has been a really tough spot for teams in the NFL over the last twenty years, especially when the third game has been in the Playoff.

Having the hook on this number would have been really appealing, but backing the Houston Texans on the handicap looks the play as they hope to begin the NFL Playoff with an upset.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Winning the second game of the regular season between these old AFC North rivals helped the Baltimore Ravens (12-5) ride the momentum into the Playoffs as the Number 3 Seed.

However, that means facing up to the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) one more time having split the two regular season meetings and this time with a spot in the Divisional Round on the line.

The Ravens will be playing with confidence having won four games in a row, and things could not be much different for those in Pittsburgh colours having lost their last four regular season games to not only lose their grip on the Division, but to finish as the Number 6 Seed and have this tougher road game on Saturday night as Wild Card Weekend begins.

Mike Tomlin and the Steelers would have been really happy with the veteran leadership that Russell Wilson had given the team at Quarter Back after taking over from Justin Fields and moving into a 10-3 position gave the entire organisation confidence. However, Wilson and the rest of the Offensive unit have hit a massive slump and they have not been able to score more than 17 points in any of their last four games, which has ramped up the pressure on the Defensive unit.

More is going to be needed and some are even suggesting that Justin Fields should be given more snaps behind Center to offer something different for the Steelers who were beaten by 17 points in this Stadium just last month.

The final score is hard to ignore, but the game was competitive until a Russell Wilson Fumble when looking like he was going in for a Touchdown. Later on it was followed by a Pick Six, and George Pickens is also back in the Steelers lineup to offer more support.

It certainly gives you pause for thought when it comes to this very big spread in a game featuring two rivals that have tended to play each other very competitively down the years.

Russell Wilson will need to be better as he faces an improved Baltimore Defensive unit and one that is determined to offer all of the support the team needs to finally have a big impact in the post-season for the first time since winning the Super Bowl in 2012. That might be harsh considering the Ravens played in the AFC Championship Game last season, but they only managed 10 points in the loss to the Kansas City Chiefs at home and that will have stung.

The road team will want to run the ball to set up the pass, but it has been a season-long challenge for opponents to really establish the run against this Baltimore Defensive Line. The Ravens remain strong up front and they will certainly feel they can clamp down on Pittsburgh here and force Russell Wilson to try and beat them with his arm.

Earlier this season there were holes in the Ravens Secondary to exploit, but some changes have been made to the starting personnel and Baltimore have responded with some strong performances. The pass rush pressure that has been generated certainly helps the Defensive Backs and Russell Wilson will do well to find a clean pocket if he is stuck in obvious passing situations behind this Steelers Offensive Line.

There has not been a lot of consistency from the veteran Quarter Back in recent games and that has to change if Pittsburgh are going to have an opportunity to keep this one competitive, never mind actually winning.

Pressure is on Wilson to produce, but the same can be said for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Offensive unit after another strong regular season. Unfortunately for the Ravens, Jackson has not been able to replicate that level in the Playoffs and just two career post-season wins is not good enough for someone who is considered one of the stars in the League.

He has lost both games he has started in night spots in the Playoffs, which adds to the pressure that will be on his shoulders, but Lamar Jackson is playing a team he is familiar with and that will help. The Steelers have long given him problems, but having Derrick Henry in the backfield with Jackson is a big help and the Ravens are expected to pound the rock with a lot more success than the Steelers.

Derrick Henry had a big game in the win last month and the Steelers Defensive Line has looked a little worn out through this losing run with teams happy to run the clock against them. Now they face a tough Baltimore Offensive Line that will bully teams up front and the threat of Henry may open up more rushing lanes for Lamar Jackson than he usually expects to have against Pittsburgh.

No Zay Flowers is a blow for the Ravens, but Lamar Jackson should be given time to make his reads down the field and there are still enough playmakers that can spark the passing game too. Much like the Defensive Line, the Pittsburgh Secondary have been asked to do too much in this four game losing run and that has seen them giving up more yards than they would like.

There is no hiding from the fact that Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens have something to prove in this Playoff run, but the Offensive balance should give them a chance to make a very strong start.

You also cannot ignore the size of the spread and the underdog has a 25-9-3 record against the spread when Mike Tomlin's Pittsburgh have faced John Harbaugh's Baltimore. However, in the three Playoff meetings with these Head Coaches at the helm, the favourite is 2-1 against the spread and Baltimore did cover as the home favourite when they met in December in the regular season.

We know Mike Tomlin has a strong record when he is the Head Coach of an underdog Pittsburgh, but his numbers are only 7-9-1 against the spread when his team is given 7 points or more. In the last two Playoff runs, Pittsburgh have been given at least 9 points as the underdog against Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills and been blown out both times.

Add in the fact that home favourites asked to lay at least 7.5 points are 14-4 against the spread in the Wild Card Round of the post-season since 2005, a number that becomes 14-1 against the spread when the spread is at least 9.5 points.

Lamar Jackson has overseen strong performances after big Offensive outings for his team, while he might just have the more balanced team on both sides of the ball which can help the Baltimore Ravens have too much all around for their old rival in this one.

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills Pick: Crushing Divisional rivals Kansas City Chiefs at home in Week 18 was enough for the Denver Broncos (10-7) to edge out the Cincinnati Bengals for the final Wild Card spot in the NFL Playoffs.

Credit has to be given to Sean Payton in his first season with the Broncos as he has snapped their run of eight seasons without making the Playoffs since winning the Super Bowl, and all with a rookie Quarter Back.

Of course it should also be pointed out that the Broncos had lost two in a row before the Week 18 win over the Chiefs, a team that rested all of their starters and who have been accused of wanting to see the Bengals eliminated as a much more dangerous team compared with the Broncos.

Sean Payton's team have made the best of their schedule in all reality and their sole win over an opponent that will also be playing in the Playoff came against Tampa Bay before the win over the second string Chiefs. This season the Broncos have lost to Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Kansas City in the first meeting and the Los Angeles Chargers twice so it is not a very big surprise that they are set as a considerable underdog.

First up for Denver is a trip to the Buffalo Bills (13-4) who won the AFC East and finished with the Number 2 Seed.

There have been so many positives to speak about when it comes to talking about the Bills of recent years, but this is a team that very much considers a success winning a Super Bowl and anything less than that is not good enough. They have beaten the Kansas City Chiefs in the regular season, but the Bills are expecting a tough path towards a potential rematch in the AFC Championship Game and Sean McDermott will not want his team to look too far ahead.

Key players were largely given time to rest through Week 18 as Buffalo turned their attention to the Wild Card Round and this is a Bills team powered by Quarter Back Josh Allen.

He will be up against a solid Denver Defensive unit that have really been a big help throughout the season and allowed Bo Nix to develop at Quarter Back. The Broncos are going to be aware that they need to find a way to slow down this Buffalo Offensive team that does not have too many stand out names around Josh Allen, but who are well Coached and able to be very successful without the superstar names.

Josh Allen is elite and the playmakers work hard, which has made Buffalo successful even without the likes of Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs. The Bills Offensive Line will look to power the running game and having someone like Josh Allen helps with his ability to tuck the ball and make some big plays with his legs.

Ultimately the key for the Bills is to play a clean game and try and stay in front of the chains, which is going to be tested by a tough Denver Defensive Line.

Buffalo will certainly feel they can stay in third and manageable regardless with little screens and the dual-threat of Josh Allen along with a solid Running Back in James Cook on this side of the ball.

Throwing into this Secondary should also be effective for Buffalo considering they don't have an official number one Receiver, meaning Patrick Surtain II is not going to have the same kind of ability to 'take away' an option as would be the case against many teams in the NFL. There are plenty of Receivers capable of stepping up for Josh Allen and he will be encouraged by the successes that Denver opponents have had against this Secondary down the stretch.

This is particularly the case for the better teams that Denver have faced and so the pressure could be on Bo Nix, Sean Payton and the Offensive game plan to find a way to keep this one competitive on the field.

Everything begins with the run for Denver to just give their rookie Quarter Back a bit more time and to be placed in better field position, but it is going to be a test for this Offensive Line to push Buffalo's Defensive Line around. Sean Payton will look to find a way to quicken passes and use little screens to help in place of a proper run game if needed, but it also only going to work as long as the Broncos are competitive.

Bo Nix has shown he has the confidence to make plays from within the pocket, although it will be a real test to do that against the Bills Secondary that ended the season in strong form. The Quarter Back has played clean games of late, but will have to be aware of the ability of the Bills to turn the ball over in the passing game.

Sean Payton has a strong covering record as an underdog in the Playoff, but he is operating with a rookie Quarter Back and they have largely struggled in their first post-season start.

As mentioned in the Baltimore-Pittsburgh Pick, big home favourites have been very good at covering in wins in this Round of the post-season, while teams that have missed at least two straight seasons of Playoff Football and then facing an experienced Playoff opponent are just 16-25 against the spread over the last twelve years.

A backdoor cover cannot be ruled out, but it should be pointed out that Bo Nix has not been the same Quarter Back when playing from behind as he has when operating protecting a lead. After a strong season overall, Denver might just not have enough to stay with a Super Bowl chasing host and the Buffalo Bills may end up pulling away for a strong win.

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: You know it is a loaded NFL Playoff when none of the teams involved have had fewer than ten regular season wins.

The Green Bay Packers (11-6) were desperate to earn one more in Week 18, but they were beaten by NFC North rivals Chicago Bears and that meant they were unable to improve their Seeding.

Make no mistake, the Packers did not want to be the Number 7 Seed and have to open at the Philadelphia Eagles (14-3), but that is their situation and there will be no fear about facing the team that beat them in Sao Paulo in Week 1.

Last season the Number 7 Seeded Green Bay Packers were on the road at the NFC East Champions, but they were able to blowout the Dallas Cowboys in Jordan Love's first Playoff game and so they will head to Philadelphia with some belief in their own ability, even against one of the top teams in the Conference.

The Week 18 loss to the Chicago Bears was a blow, and came at a further cost with Christian Watson suffering an injury that will rule him out for months. That is a big blow for this Offensive unit and the Packers might just be grateful that Jordan Love has been able to practice having suffered an injury which caused him to lose feeling in his fingers.

There is no doubting how important Jordan Love is to the Packers, but this is a game where they will also need to show their strength at the Line of Scrimmage and ensure Josh Jacobs is keeping the team in front of the chains. The Packers Offensive Line have a big task in establishing the run against this Philadelphia Defensive Line, but they are capable of opening up some decent lanes and that will be music to the ears of Jordan Love, especially without his Wide Receiver that is most likely to stretch the field.

Being able to use Jacobs to just help control the clock is key for the Green Bay Packers if they are going to upset the NFC East Champions on the road in the post-season for a second year in a row.

Jordan Love will have plenty of belief in his own ability, but it has been tough to throw against this Philadelphia team all season and there has to be one or two concerns about his elbow, even if not placed on the injury report. At least by running the ball well enough, the Quarter Back will just need to complete some short passes to keep the chains moving and to keep the Eagles thinking on the sidelines.

An injury concern to the Quarter Back is not only something that the Green Bay Packers are dealing with, but it will be the talk of the town in Philadelphia in the lead up to this game.

Jalen Hurts has had a very good season, as have the whole organisation, but he suffered a concussion early in Week 16 and has effectively missed three weeks of action. Some would have liked Hurts to be involved in the Week 18 game, if only to shake off rust, but the Quarter Back was finally cleared from concussion protocol this week and there has to be a concern about how effective he will be.

And so just like the Packers, the Eagles will want to lean on the Offensive Line and a top Running Back in Saquon Barkley to make things easier for their Quarter Back.

However, the one difference is that the Green Bay Defensive Line have played the run really well for much of the season and have been in good shape down the stretch in the regular season. Stopping Saquon Barkley is a different kind of test, but the Packers are coming out of a Division where the likes of Minnesota and Detroit want to run the ball and that kind of experience will give them that belief they can clamp down on the run and force Jalen Hurts to beat them.

Jalen Hurts has quality Receivers to help him, but this is not really a team built to convert third and long spots, while the Green Bay Secondary have also been very effective at playing the pass.

Stopping Philadelphia completely in their own Stadium is going to be near impossible, but the Green Bay Packers do match up pretty well and they have the qualities to keep this one close and competitive.

The Eagles did cover in the win over Green Bay in Sao Paulo, but they were only being asked to lay a single point on that day compared with the much bigger line set for this Wild Card game. As good as Jalen Hurts has been for the Eagles since becoming the starting Quarter Back, it is hard to ignore the 16-20-1 record against the spread when set as a favourite of at least 3 points.

Nick Sirianni has come through difficult moments to retain the Head Coach role with Philadelphia, but Matt LaFleur may be the stronger Coach and has a very impressive 9-2 record against the spread when playing with revenge as the road underdog.

His Green Bay Packers team are also 2-0 against the spread as the road underdog in either the Wild Card or Divisional Round of the Playoffs and the feeling is that Matt LaFleur can find the solutions to make up for the absence of Christian Watson. With a Defensive unit capable of keeping the Eagles around the 20 point mark, the Packers should have enough to cover even if they are beaten.

Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: They put themselves in a bit of a hole in Week 18, but a strong second half saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) beat the New Orleans Saints and win the NFC South yet again. That means another home Playoff game on Wild Card Weekend and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favourites having improved their Seeding to Number 3 after winning out to secure the Division.

If games lasted 59 minutes rather than 60 minutes, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would have been hosting the Green Bay Packers.

Instead it is the Washington Commanders (12-5) who will travel to Florida after a very successful season, one in which they have overachieved. The Commanders are not only back in the Playoff for the first time since the 2020 season, but they are also looking for a first post-season victory since 2005 when they were able to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round.

The most recent Playoff game was also against the Buccaneers in 2020, although that time Washington were beaten, and the Commanders are also looking for some revenge having lost in this Stadium in a blowout in Week 1 of the regular season.

Jayden Daniels was making his first NFL start at Quarter Back that day, but the rookie has grown as the season has moved from week to week and the Commanders look like they have their franchise player for the years ahead. Five wins in a row have just given Washington some momentum, although they will have a huge amount of respect for the Buccaneers.

Earlier in the season the Commanders might have leaned on the Offensive Line and expected to have ripped open some big plays on the ground- this is still going to be a big part of the game plan, especially with a dual-threat Quarter Back like Daniels to go with Brian Robinson Jr, but the Buccaneers Defensive Line finished the season in extremely strong fashion when it came to playing the run and they will feel they have an edge.

Jayden Daniels is helping the Offensive Line with his own scrambling abilities, but the pass protection has broken up around him in recent games and that is a concern if they are not playing in front of the chains. With a Head Coach like Todd Bowles, the Buccaneers will feel they can scheme things to just confuse the rookie Quarter Back, although the quality of Jayden Daniels means he is still likely going to make some plays with his arm to give the Commanders a chance.

However, to really pull the upset, the Washington Commanders will need the Defensive unit to come out and produce a big game.

The problem the Commanders will have is that they have not been able to stop the run all season and they are now going up against a strong Tampa Bay Offensive Line that have looked very good when it comes to blocking for Bucky Irving. Having the latter take over as the main Running Back has been a very good decision from Tampa Bay too and the Buccaneers should be able to rip open some big plays on the ground, which only bodes well for Baker Mayfield.

Replacing Tom Brady was not going to be easy, but Mayfield has played at a very good level in his time with Tampa Bay and he is very much appreciated around here. His numbers down the stretch played a big part in Tampa Bay winning the NFC South and the Quarter Back should be playing from third and manageable spots.

He will be under some duress from the Commanders pass rush, although being able to run the ball should mean that Baker Mayfield is only being asked to complete short yardage passes to keep the chains moving. Having Mike Evans means the downfield threat remains and the Buccaneers may have the balance Offensively to come through with a home win.

The trends are certainly going against Jayden Daniels with rookie Quarter Backs losing their last seven road Playoff games, while those making a first start in the post-season have tended to struggle. Washington have also missed the Playoff for at least two seasons and those teams have had issues when facing experienced foes in the Wild Card Round.

Tampa Bay are trying to overcome a poor run that Number 3 Seeds have been on when favoured by less than 4 points in this Round, but they are at home and the experience of this team will help. The Commanders did win more games than Tampa Bay, but those teams are 11-18-1 against the spread when playing on the road in the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoff and this looks like one that the Buccaneers can win and cover.

Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: The wildfires in Los Angeles have had, and continue to have, a big impact on the community and the NFL had no real choice but to move this Playoff game to Arizona.

The Los Angeles Rams (10-7) would have loved to have been able to give the community something positive, but the fires continue to rage and the NFC West Champions have to give up home advantage for this big game.

After losing in Week 18, the Los Angeles Rams slipped from the Number 3 Seed into the Number 4 Seed in the NFC and they knew they would be hosting a fourteen win team out of the NFC North. Whether that was going to be the Detroit Lions or the Minnesota Vikings (14-3) did not matter and the Rams will have been expecting a tough challenge even if this game was hosted in their own Stadium.

The test is that much bigger on a neutral field, but this is an experienced Los Angeles team and they did manage to rest the majority of the key players in Week 18, which suggests Sean McVay was unconcerned about playing a team from the NFC North.

Matthew Stafford is a former Super Bowl Champion and the Quarter Back is surrounded with a lot of talent so there will be no fear for the Los Angeles Rams as far as moving the ball. Since the big win over the Buffalo Bills, the Rams have struggled Offensively, but McVay and Stafford are a solid team and you just know the Head Coach will have a plan in place to get this team going.

A big boost is having Rob Havenstein available for selection on the Offensive Line and that should help the Rams establish the run against the Minnesota Defensive Line which struggled last week. Being able to put the ball in Kyren Williams' hands and have him push the Rams into third and manageable field position would be huge for the entire Offensive game plan and really open the playbook up for Sean McVay.

With a Quarter Back like Matthew Stafford, the Head Coach will be confident that the veteran can see what is coming from the Brian Flores led Minnesota Defensive unit. Matthew Stafford will not mind being blitzed and he has some top playmakers in the Receiving positions who will find the right spaces in this Vikings Secondary to put the Rams in a situation where the upset could be on.

The Vikings have lost at the Los Angeles Rams in the regular season, but a neutral field gives them an opportunity to earn revenge and they will also be keen to bounce back from a really poor performance against the Detroit Lions. It was a poor time to produce his worst game of the season as Sam Darnold struggled at Quarter Back with the chance to earn the Number 1 Seed in the NFC and there will be plenty of eyes on the player behind Center in this primetime spot.

It has not helped that the Minnesota Vikings have struggled to produce an efficient running game in recent games, which has shifted more pressure onto Sam Darnold, but they might feel this is a chance for better from Aaron Jones. Some of the Offensive calls were a little strange in the Week 18 loss to Detroit, but that may have the Vikings thinking to lean on the run a bit more and they are facing a Los Angeles Defensive Line that had struggled to clamp down on the run down the stretch in the regular season.

Sam Darnold will want to operate in front of the chains to avoid the Rams ramping up the pass rush, but you have to expect better from the Quarter Back after the disappointing performance in Week 18. He has two top Receivers, as long as Darnold is willing to throw to both Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and the Rams Secondary has been one that is willing to bend.

Avoiding turnovers has been key for Darnold and he will need to get back to that kind of level in the Minnesota bid to win this one and earn the spot in the Divisional Round.

However, this is going to be a tough test for Minnesota after losing in the manner they did in Week 18 and Sean McVay will know plenty about what to expect from the Vikings Offensive unit.

Matthew Stafford and the Rams have played well in the underdog spot all season and they will have plenty of motivation to give the home fans something to cheer about after the tragic natural disaster affecting those in Los Angeles.

Once again it cannot be ignored how well hosts have performed when playing a team with more wins than them in the Wild Card Round of the Playoff, and the strong run of the home underdog in this Playoff Round.

Sam Darnold is also playing in the Playoff for the first time, which is historically a tough spot and even more so when you think of the experience on the other sideline.

That experience is of a Super Bowl Winning Quarter Back and those players have led teams to a 14-4 record against the spread when set as an underdog in the Playoffs.

MY PICKS: Houston Texans + 3 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Buffalo Bills - 8.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers + 5 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Rams + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)

Week 17: 7-3, + 3.27 Units (10 Units Staked, + 32.70% Yield)

Week 16: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 15: 6-2, + 3.37 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42.13% Yield)

Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)

Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)

Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

Season 2024: + 4.30 Units

College Football National Championship Game Pick (January 11th)

The Bowl Picks worked out pretty well over the last month, but the College Football PlayOffs were another thing altogether.

One Pick I got completely wrong, while I was undone by a backdoor cover in the other. With the National Championship wrapping up the 2020 season, I am hoping for better.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: Two blow out wins in the College Football PlayOff Semi Finals have taken the Alabama Crimson Tide and Ohio State Buckeyes into the National Championship Game. Both teams are unbeaten, although the Crimson Tide knocked off the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as a big favourite a couple of weeks ago.

Things were different for the Buckeyes who were an underdog against the Clemson Tigers, but rammed back taunts of not being considered in the top ten for best teams in the nation when crushing them. The Ohio State Buckeyes never looked like losing, let alone failing to cover, but the layers are not convinced that they will be able to keep up with the Crimson Tide who have looked like one of the stronger editions of what has become a regularly National Championship contender.

There are some factors at play which are hard to really gauge as to how important they could potentially become- the Buckeyes have had a number of Covid-19 outbreaks throughout the 2020 season and are rumoured to be suffering another which had some believing the Championship Game could have to be moved, but they are going to go on Monday as far as it sounds.

Ohio State have shown they can manage those outbreaks and not lose any momentum, but there is also the injury suffered by Quarter Back Justin Fields in the win over Clemson Tigers which may limit him. On the other hand you do have to wonder if the Buckeyes are peaking at the right time with a short season meaning they are heading towards the peak of the performance compared with the Alabama Crimson Tide who have already come through a number of very tough games to remain unbeaten.

The Crimson Tide have won 12 games this season compared with Ohio State's 7 games and so there is more wear and tear on their team, but Nick Saban is not going to be concerning himself about excuses nor giving Ohio State any bulletin board material like Dabo Swinney did before the Clemson Tigers were beaten very easily.

The injury to Justin Fields could be critical because there is a feeling he won't be able to run as much as he might have done if at full health. It did not slow him down against the Tigers, but the Alabama Crimson Tide won't have to make in-game adjustments to Fields as they are likely going to anticipate him being at his best, but also planning for how they will defend against Fields if he is not at 100%.

I still think you have to respect Justin Fields who will be keen to remind people why he was considered one of the top two Quarter Backs coming out into the NFL Draft. Some have suggested he might have slipped behind Zach Wilson in the scouting reports, but Justin Fields can turn all that talk on its head with a strong performance in the National Championship Game even if the Buckeyes were to come up short.

As well as the Crimson Tide have played all season, we have seen the likes of Ole Miss and Florida have success throwing the ball down the field against this Secondary. Justin Fields has the talent around him to have success in this game too and I think there will be chances for the Buckeyes to move the ball, although Alabama will be well Coached and there is no less talent here that can make some big plays for the favourites.

Mobility is going to be the key for Fields as he looks to make sure he can stay away from the much respected Alabama pass rush that should be able to get through this Ohio State Offensive Line. If Justin Fields can at least move better than he looked like he could in the second half against the Clemson Tigers, it will be a big boost for Ohio State who will be looking to dominate the line of scrimmage as the did against the Tigers.

After establishing the run in the manner they did against the Tigers, I have to give the Ohio State Offensive Line enough respect to think they could so the same against Alabama and that despite how strong the Crimson Tide Defensive Line has been up front. It could be all important to the outcome on this side of the ball as any one-dimensional Offense is going to have problems against Alabama, but Ohio State should be able to make this a competitive game.

The line of scrimmage is massively important on both sides of the ball, because the Buckeyes are coming in off a game in which they really forced Clemson to lean on Trevor Lawrence. Now Lawrence may be going into the NFL as the next great generational Quarter Back, but the Buckeyes were able to slow down the Tigers without the balance they would usually have relied upon and I think that is going to be very important for them here.

Alabama have quality talent throughout their skill positions and it is difficult to believe the Crimson Tide will see Najee Harris shut down completely, but I do think he will have to work for his yards. The question is whether I believe Ohio State can shut down the run to the extent they did against Clemson? Realistically I do not think that will happen with the talent Alabama have on their Offensive Line, but the fact I have to ask the question means it could see the Crimson Tide needing Mac Jones to loosen the line of scrimmage.

Mac Jones has played so well in 2020 and I do think some fans will have forgotten about Tua Tagovailoa, but no one is going to dispute the amount of talent he has to throw to. DeVonta Smith won the Heisman Trophy and the Wide Receiver looks like one that is going to have a huge impact at the next level, while Alabama may also be boosted by the return of Jaylen Waddle who has been listed as Questionable.

The Buckeyes Secondary has given up some big numbers throughout the season, but they have also been able to make big plays to turn momentum when they have needed to. One concern has to be the lack of consistent pass rush pressure and that may give Mac Jones the kind of time that will make Alabama very difficult to stop when you think of the kind of players he will be throwing to in this game.

I think Alabama will win this game, but you can't ignore the possibility of a backdoor cover.

Having more than a Touchdown of points with a team as good as Ohio State does look appealing and they are 19-7 against the spread in their last twenty-six games as the underdog. That includes winning outright against the Tigers in the College Football PlayOffs while Ohio State are also 6-2 against the spread in their last eight post-season games.

I was undone by a backdoor cover when the Alabama Crimson Tide crushed the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, while the Crimson Tide have not covered in their last four National Championship Games.

However Alabama are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games as the favourite and I do think they are the superior team and won't underestimate Ohio State. I have a feeling that Clemson did that to some extent and motivated the Buckeyes by disrespecting them in the build up to that PlayOff Game, but Nick Saban won't do that and his team look to be stronger than Ohio State.

I expect the Buckeyes issues in the Secondary to be highlighted here and they may not have as much joy across the lines of scrimmage as they did against Clemson. Justin Fields may show why he is considered one of the top players coming out in the next NFL Draft, but Mac Jones has the talent around him to out-perform Fields and lead the Crimson Tide to another National Championship title.

MY PICK: Alabama Crimson Tide - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)